Search results for: fuzzy time series (fts)

Authors: Michael Gidey Gebru

Abstract:

Most of Data Envelopment Analysis models operate in a static environment with input and output parameters that are chosen by deterministic data. However, due to ambiguity brought on shifting market conditions, input and output data are not always precisely gathered in real-world scenarios. Fuzzy numbers can be used to address this kind of ambiguity in input and output data. Therefore, this work aims to expand crisp Data Envelopment Analysis into Data Envelopment Analysis with fuzzy environment. In this study, the input and output data are regarded as fuzzy triangular numbers. Then, the Data Envelopment Analysis model with fuzzy environment is solved using a multi-objective method to gauge the Decision Making Units' efficiency. Finally, the developed Data Envelopment Analysis model is illustrated with an application on real data 50 educational institutions.

Keywords: efficiency, Data Envelopment Analysis, fuzzy, higher education, input, output

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Authors: Babak Daneshvar Rouyendegh

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The aim of this study is to develop and describe a new methodology for the Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) problem using Intuitionistic Fuzzy Elimination Et Choix Traduisant La REalite (IFELECTRE) model. The proposed models enable Decision-Makers (DMs) on the assessment and use Intuitionistic Fuzzy numbers (IFN). A numerical example is provided to demonstrate and clarify the proposed analysis procedure. Also, an empirical experiment is conducted to validation the effectiveness.

Keywords: Decision-Makers (DMs), Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM), Intuitionistic Fuzzy Elimination Et Choix Traduisant La REalite (IFELECTRE), Intuitionistic Fuzzy Numbers (IFN)

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Authors: Ramesh K. Sunkaria, Puneeta Marwaha

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Nonlinear methods of heart rate variability (HRV) analysis are becoming more popular. It has been observed that complexity measures quantify the regularity and uncertainty of cardiovascular RR-interval time series. In the present work, SampEn has been evaluated in healthy Normal Sinus Rhythm (NSR) male and female subjects for different data lengths and tolerance level r. It is demonstrated that SampEn is small for higher values of tolerance r. Also SampEn value of healthy female group is higher than that of healthy male group for short data length and with increase in data length both groups overlap each other and it is difficult to distinguish them. The SampEn gives inaccurate results by assigning higher value to female group, because male subject have more complex HRV pattern than that of female subjects. Therefore, this traditional algorithm exhibits higher complexity for healthy female subjects than for healthy male subjects, which is misleading observation. This may be due to the fact that SampEn do not account for multiple time scales inherent in the physiologic time series and the hidden spatial and temporal fluctuations remains unexplored.

Keywords: heart rate variability, normal sinus rhythm group, RR interval time series, sample entropy

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Authors: Victoria Siriaki Jorry, I. S. Mbalawata, Hayong Shin

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The main objective in a change detection problem is to develop algorithms for efficient detection of gradual and/or abrupt changes in the parameter distribution of a process or time series data. In this paper, we present a modified cumulative (MCUSUM) algorithm to detect the start and end of a time-varying linear drift in mean value of a time series data based on likelihood ratio test procedure. The design, implementation and performance of the proposed algorithm for a linear drift detection is evaluated and compared to the existing CUSUM algorithm using different performance measures. An approach to accurately approximate the threshold of the MCUSUM is also provided. Performance of the MCUSUM for gradual change-point detection is compared to that of standard cumulative sum (CUSUM) control chart designed for abrupt shift detection using Monte Carlo Simulations. In terms of the expected time for detection, the MCUSUM procedure is found to have a better performance than a standard CUSUM chart for detection of the gradual change in mean. The algorithm is then applied and tested to a randomly generated time series data with a gradual linear trend in mean to demonstrate its usefulness.

Keywords: average run length, CUSUM control chart, gradual change detection, likelihood ratio test

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Authors: Agung Budi Muljono, I Made Ginarsa, I Made Ari Nrartha

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A large-scale power system (LSPS) consists of two or more sub-systems connected by inter-connecting transmission. Loading pattern on an LSPS always changes from time to time and varies depend on consumer need. The serious instability problem is appeared in an LSPS due to load fluctuation in all of the bus. Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS)-based power system stabilizer (PSS) is presented to cover the stability problem and to enhance the stability of an LSPS. The ANFIS control is presented because the ANFIS control is more effective than Mamdani fuzzy control in the computation aspect. Simulation results show that the presented PSS is able to maintain the stability by decreasing peak overshoot to the value of −2.56 × 10−5 pu for rotor speed deviation Δω2−3. The presented PSS also makes the settling time to achieve at 3.78 s on local mode oscillation. Furthermore, the presented PSS is able to improve the peak overshoot and settling time of Δω3−9 to the value of −0.868 × 10−5 pu and at the time of 3.50 s for inter-area oscillation.

Keywords: ANFIS, large-scale, power system, PSS, stability enhancement

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Authors: B. G. Sampath, K. C. R. Perera, W. A. S. I. Wijesuriya, V. P. C. Dassanayake

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In this paper the design, development and testing of a stabilizer control system for a Quad-rotor is presented which is focused on the maneuverability. The mechanical design is performed along with the design of the controlling algorithm which is devised using fuzzy logic controller. The inputs for the system are the angular positions and angular rates of the Quad-Rotor relative to three axes. Then the output data is filtered from an accelerometer and a gyroscope through a Kalman filter. In the development of the stability controlling system Mandani Fuzzy Model is incorporated. The results prove that the fuzzy based stabilizer control system is superior in high dynamic disturbances compared to the traditional systems which use PID integrated stabilizer control systems.

Keywords: fuzzy stabilizer, maneuverability, PID, quad-rotor

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Authors: Faisal Alshuwaier, Ali Areshey

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Text mining techniques are generally applied for classifying the text, finding fuzzy relations and structures in data sets. This research provides plenty text mining capabilities. One common application is text classification and event extraction, which encompass deducing specific knowledge concerning incidents referred to in texts. The main contribution of this paper is the clarification of a concept graph generation mechanism, which is based on a text classification and optimal fuzzy relationship extraction. Furthermore, the work presented in this paper explains the application of fuzzy relationship extraction and branch and bound method to simplify the texts.

Keywords: extraction, max-prod, fuzzy relations, text mining, memberships, classification, memberships, classification

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Authors: Chetsada Noknoi

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The acceptance of Y series refers to the willingness and enjoyment of watching Y series without feeling different from general series. This occurs when people watch Y series and derive happiness and entertainment from it. The viewing experience has the most significant impact on Y series acceptance. This research aims to 1) investigate the levels of acceptance of sexual diversity, image of Y series Actors, media exposure, and Y series acceptance among the residents in three southern border provinces of Thailand, and 2) examine how acceptance of sexual diversity, actor perceptions in Y series, and media exposure influence Y series acceptance in these provinces. The sample consisted of 322 participants from the three southern border provinces of Thailand. The research instrument used was a questionnaire, and data were analyzed using frequency, percentage, mean, standard deviation, and multiple regression analysis. The findings revealed that overall, acceptance of sexual diversity, Image of Y series Actors, and Y series acceptance among the residents in three southern border provinces of Thailand were at a high level, while media exposure was moderate overall. However, the two factors that had the most significant impact on Y series acceptance in these provinces, ranked from highest to lowest influence, were media exposure and acceptance of sexual diversity. Both of these factors had a positive effect on Y series acceptance among the residents in three southern border provinces of Thailand. Collectively, these factors accounted for 40.7% of the variance in Y series acceptance among the residents in three southern border provinces of Thailand.

Keywords: acceptance, acceptance of sexual diversity, image of Y series actors, media exposure, Y series

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Authors: Mounir Bekaik, Messaoud Ramdani

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We present in this work a new technique of stabilization for fault nonlinear systems. The approach we adopt focus on a fuzzy Luenverger observer. The T-S approximation of the nonlinear observer is based on fuzzy C-Means clustering algorithm to find local linear subsystems. The MOESP identification approach was applied to design an empirical model describing the subsystems state variables. The gain of the observer is given by the minimization of the estimation error through Lyapunov-krasovskii functional and LMI approach. We consider a three tank hydraulic system for an illustrative example.

Keywords: nonlinear system, fuzzy, faults, TS, Lyapunov-Krasovskii, observer

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Authors: Arindam Chaudhuri

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The research presents epsilon- hierarchical fuzzy twin support vector regression (epsilon-HFTSVR) based on epsilon-fuzzy twin support vector regression (epsilon-FTSVR) and epsilon-twin support vector regression (epsilon-TSVR). Epsilon-FTSVR is achieved by incorporating trapezoidal fuzzy numbers to epsilon-TSVR which takes care of uncertainty existing in forecasting problems. Epsilon-FTSVR determines a pair of epsilon-insensitive proximal functions by solving two related quadratic programming problems. The structural risk minimization principle is implemented by introducing regularization term in primal problems of epsilon-FTSVR. This yields dual stable positive definite problems which improves regression performance. Epsilon-FTSVR is then reformulated as epsilon-HFTSVR consisting of a set of hierarchical layers each containing epsilon-FTSVR. Experimental results on both synthetic and real datasets reveal that epsilon-HFTSVR has remarkable generalization performance with minimum training time.

Keywords: regression, epsilon-TSVR, epsilon-FTSVR, epsilon-HFTSVR

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Authors: A. Morsli, A. Tlemçani, N. Ould Cherchali, M. S. Boucherit

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This article presents two methods for the compensation of harmonics generated by a nonlinear load. The first is the classic method P-Q. The second is the controller by modern method of artificial intelligence specifically fuzzy logic. Both methods are applied to an Active Power Filter shunt (APFs) based on a three-phase voltage converter at five levels NPC topology. In calculating the harmonic currents of reference, we use the algorithm P-Q and pulse generation, we use the intersective PWM. For flexibility and dynamics, we use fuzzy logic. The results give us clear that the rate of Harmonic Distortion issued by fuzzy logic is better than P-Q.

Keywords: fuzzy logic controller, P-Q method, pulse width modulation (PWM), shunt active power filter (sAPF), total harmonic distortion (THD)

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Authors: V. S. S. Kumar, B. Vikram

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The development of effective decision support tools that adopted in the construction industry is vital in the world we live in today, since it can lead to substantial cost reduction and efficient resource consumption. Solving the time-cost trade off problems and its related variants is at the heart of scientific research for optimizing construction planning problems. In general, the classical optimization techniques have difficulties in dealing with TCT problems. One of the main reasons of their failure is that they can easily be entrapped in local minima. This paper presents an investigation on the application of meta-heuristic techniques to two particular variants of the time-cost trade of analysis, the time-cost trade off problem (TCT), and time-cost trade off optimization problem (TCO). In first problem, the total project cost should be minimized, and in the second problem, the total project cost and total project duration should be minimized simultaneously. Finally it is expected that, the optimization models developed in this paper will contribute significantly for efficient planning and management of construction project.

Keywords: fuzzy sets, uncertainty, optimization, time cost trade off problems

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Authors: F. Berna Benli, Özgür Keskin

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Lately, many mathematicians have been studied the statistical convergence of a sequence of fuzzy numbers. We know that Lambda-statistically convergence is a kind of convergence between ordinary convergence and statistical convergence. In this paper, we will introduce the new kind of convergence such as λ-levelwise statistical convergence. Then, we will define the concept of the λ-levelwise statistical cluster and limit points of a sequence of fuzzy numbers. Also, we will discuss the relations between the sets of λ-levelwise statistical cluster points and λ-levelwise statistical limit points of sequences of fuzzy numbers. This work has been extended in this paper, where some relations have been considered such that when lambda-statistical limit inferior and lambda-statistical limit superior for lambda-statistically convergent sequences of fuzzy numbers are equal. Furthermore, lambda-statistical boundedness condition for different sequences of fuzzy numbers has been studied.

Keywords: fuzzy number, λ-levelwise statistical cluster points, λ-levelwise statistical convergence, λ-levelwise statistical limit points, λ-statistical cluster points, λ-statistical convergence, λ-statistical limit points

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Authors: Tamas Madl

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Sudden cardiac death (SCD) constitutes a large proportion of cardiovascular mortalities, provides little advance warning, and the risk is difficult to recognize based on ubiquitous, low cost medical equipment such as the standard, 12-lead, ten second ECG. Autonomic abnormalities have been shown to be strongly predictive of SCD risk; yet current methods are not trivially applicable to the brevity and low temporal and electrical resolution of standard ECGs. Here, we build horizontal visibility graph representations of very short inter-beat interval time series, and perform unsuper- vised representation learning in order to convert these variable size objects into fixed-length vectors preserving similarity rela- tions. We show that such representations facilitate classification into healthy vs. at-risk patients on two different datasets, the Mul- tiparameter Intelligent Monitoring in Intensive Care II and the PhysioNet Sudden Cardiac Death Holter Database. Our results suggest that graph representation learning of heartbeat interval time series facilitates robust classification even in sequences as short as ten seconds.

Keywords: sudden cardiac death, heart rate variability, ECG analysis, time series classification

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Authors: Messis A., Adjebli A., Ayeche R., Talbi M., Tighilet K., Louardiane M.

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Cancers are the second cause of death worldwide. Prevalence and incidence of cancers is getting increased by aging and population growth. This study aims to predict and modeling the evolution of breast, Colorectal, Lung, Bladder and Prostate cancers over the period of 2014-2019. In this study, data were analyzed using time series analysis with double exponential smoothing method to forecast the future pattern. To describe and fit the appropriate models, Minitab statistical software version 17 was used. Between 2014 and 2019, the overall trend in the raw number of new cancer cases registered has been increasing over time; the change in observations over time has been increasing. Our forecast model is validated since we have good prediction for the period 2020 and data not available for 2021 and 2022. Time series analysis showed that the double exponential smoothing is an efficient tool to model the future data on the raw number of new cancer cases.

Keywords: cancer, time series, prediction, double exponential smoothing

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Authors: Hosein Hamisheh Bahar, Mohammad Hossein Fazel Zarandi, Akbar Esfahanipour

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In this paper, a hybrid expert system is developed by using fuzzy genetic network programming with reinforcement learning (GNP-RL). In this system, the frame-based structure of the system uses the trading rules extracted by GNP. These rules are extracted by using technical indices of the stock prices in the training time period. For developing this system, we applied fuzzy node transition and decision making in both processing and judgment nodes of GNP-RL. Consequently, using these method not only did increase the accuracy of node transition and decision making in GNP's nodes, but also extended the GNP's binary signals to ternary trading signals. In the other words, in our proposed Fuzzy GNP-RL model, a No Trade signal is added to conventional Buy or Sell signals. Finally, the obtained rules are used in a frame-based system implemented in Kappa-PC software. This developed trading system has been used to generate trading signals for ten companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE). The simulation results in the testing time period shows that the developed system has more favorable performance in comparison with the Buy and Hold strategy.

Keywords: fuzzy genetic network programming, hybrid expert system, technical trading signal, Tehran stock exchange

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Authors: Siriporn Meenanan

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The objective of this study is to investigate the attitude of Thai students towards the Thai series "Hormones the Series Season 2". This study was conducted in the quantitative research, and the questionnaires were used to collect data from 400 people of the sample group. Descriptive statistics were used in data analysis. The findings reveal that most participants have positive comments regarding the series. They strongly agreed that the series reflects on the way of life and problems of teenagers in Thailand. Hence, the participants believe that if adults have a chance to watch the series, they will have the better understanding of the teenagers. In addition, the participants also agreed that the contents of the play are appropriate and satisfiable as the contents of “Hormones the Series Season 2” will raise awareness among the teens and use it as a guide to prevent problems that might happen during their teenage life.

Keywords: content analysis, attitude, Thai series, hormones the Series

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Authors: Tomáš Vyčítal

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In a simulation model of a railway system it is important, besides other crucial algorithms, to have correct behaviour of train overtaking in stochastic conditions. This problem is being addressed in many simulation tools focused on railway traffic, however these are not very human-realistic. The goal of this paper is to create a more human-realistic overtaking decision support system for the use in railway traffic simulations. A fuzzy system has been chosen for this task as fuzzy systems are well-suited for human-like decision making. The fuzzy system designed takes into account timetables, train positions, delays and buffer times as inputs and provides an instruction to overtake or not overtake.

Keywords: decision-making support, fuzzy systems, simulation, railway, transport

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Authors: Anna Sikharulidze, Gia Sirbiladze

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For the evaluation of unreliability levels of movement on the closed routes in the vehicle routing problem, the fuzzy operators family is constructed. The interactions between routing factors in extreme conditions on the roads are considered. A multi-criteria decision-making model (MCDM) is constructed. Constructed aggregations are based on the Choquet integral and the associated probability class of a fuzzy measure. Propositions on the correctness of the extension are proved. Connections between the operators and the compositions of dual triangular norms are described. The conjugate connections between the constructed operators are shown. Operators reflect interactions among all the combinations of the factors in the fuzzy MCDM process. Several variants of constructed operators are used in the decision-making problem regarding the assessment of unreliability and possibility levels of movement on closed routes.

Keywords: vehicle routing problem, associated probabilities of a fuzzy measure, choquet integral, fuzzy aggregation operator

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Authors: S. Gherbi, F. Bouchareb

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This paper deals with the novel intelligent bio-inspired control strategies, it presents a novel approach based on an optimal fuzzy immune PID parameters tuning, it is a combination of a PID controller, inspired by the human immune mechanism with fuzzy logic. Such controller offers more possibilities to deal with the delayed systems control difficulties due to the delay term. Indeed, we use an optimization approach to tune the four parameters of the controller in addition to the fuzzy function; the obtained controller is implemented in a modified Smith predictor structure, which is well known that it is the most efficient to the control of delayed systems. The application of the presented approach to control a three tank delay system shows good performances and proves the efficiency of the method.

Keywords: delayed systems, fuzzy immune PID, optimization, Smith predictor

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Authors: Asif Zaman, Moinul Islam Zaber, Amin Ahsan Ali

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In recent years of industrialization, the South Asian countries are being affected by air pollution due to a severe increase in fine particulate matter 2.5 (PM₂.₅). Among them, Bangladesh is one of the most polluting countries. In this paper, statistical analyses were conducted on the time series of PM₂.₅ from various districts in Bangladesh, mostly around Dhaka city. Research has been conducted on the dynamic interactions and relationships between PM₂.₅ concentrations in different zones. The study is conducted toward understanding the characteristics of PM₂.₅, such as spatial-temporal characterization, correlation of other contributors behind air pollution such as human activities, driving factors and environmental casualties. Clustering on the data gave an insight on the districts groups based on their AQI frequency as representative districts. Seasonality analysis on hourly and monthly frequency found higher concentration of fine particles in nighttime and winter season, respectively. Cross correlation analysis discovered a phenomenon of correlations among cities based on time-lagged series of air particle readings and visualization framework is developed for observing interaction in PM₂.₅ concentrations between cities. Significant time-lagged correlations were discovered between the PM₂.₅ time series in different city groups throughout the country by cross correlation analysis. Additionally, seasonal heatmaps depict that the pooled series correlations are less significant in warmer months, and among cities of greater geographic distance as well as time lag magnitude and direction of the best shifted correlated particulate matter time series among districts change seasonally. The geographic map visualization demonstrates spatial behaviour of air pollution among districts around Dhaka city and the significant effect of wind direction as the vital actor on correlated shifted time series. The visualization framework has multipurpose usage from gathering insight of general and seasonal air quality of Bangladesh to determining the pathway of regional transportation of air pollution.

Keywords: air quality, particles, cross correlation, seasonality

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Authors: Liang-Hsuan Chen, Chia-Jung Chang

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Fuzzy random variables have been introduced as an imprecise concept of numeric values for characterizing the imprecise knowledge. The descriptive parameters can be used to describe the primary features of a set of fuzzy random observations. In fuzzy environments, the expected values are usually represented as fuzzy-valued, interval-valued or numeric-valued descriptive parameters using various metrics. Instead of the concept of area metric that is usually adopted in the relevant studies, the numeric expected value is proposed by the concept of distance metric in this study based on two characters (fuzziness and randomness) of FRVs. Comparing with the existing measures, although the results show that the proposed numeric expected value is same with those using the different metric, if only triangular membership functions are used. However, the proposed approach has the advantages of intuitiveness and computational efficiency, when the membership functions are not triangular types. An example with three datasets is provided for verifying the proposed approach.

Keywords: fuzzy random variables, distance measure, expected value, descriptive parameters

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Authors: Raziyeh Shamsi

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In this paper, we present a multiple objective linear programming (MOLP) problem in full fuzzy case and find Data Envelopment Analysis(DEA) targets. In the presented model, we are seeking the least inputs and the most outputs in the production possibility set (PPS) with the variable return to scale (VRS) assumption, so that the efficiency projection is obtained for all decision making units (DMUs). Then, we provide an algorithm for finding DEA targets interactively in the full fuzzy case, which solves the full fuzzy problem without defuzzification. Owing to the use of interactive methods, the targets obtained by our algorithm are more applicable, more realistic, and they are according to the wish of the decision maker. Finally, an application of the algorithm in 21 educational institutions is provided.

Keywords: DEA, MOLP, full fuzzy, target

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Authors: Alireza Gholami, Amir H. D. Markazi

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In this paper, an observer-based direct adaptive fuzzy sliding mode (OAFSM) algorithm is proposed. In the proposed algorithm, the zero-input dynamics of the plant could be unknown. The input connection matrix is used to combine the sliding surfaces of individual subsystems, and an adaptive fuzzy algorithm is used to estimate an equivalent sliding mode control input directly. The fuzzy membership functions, which were determined by time consuming try and error processes in previous works, are adjusted by adaptive algorithms. The other advantage of the proposed controller is that the input gain matrix is not limited to be diagonal, i.e. the plant could be over/under actuated provided that controllability and observability are preserved. An observer is constructed to directly estimate the state tracking error, and the nonlinear part of the observer is constructed by an adaptive fuzzy algorithm. The main advantage of the proposed observer is that, the measured outputs is not limited to the first entry of a canonical-form state vector. The closed-loop stability of the proposed method is proved using a Lyapunov-based approach. The proposed method is applied numerically on a multi-link robot manipulator, which verifies the performance of the closed-loop control. Moreover, the performance of the proposed algorithm is compared with some conventional control algorithms.

Keywords: adaptive algorithm, fuzzy systems, membership functions, observer

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Authors: Rishabh Srivastav, Divyam Sharma

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We propose an algorithm to cluster categorical data named as ‘Genetic algorithm initialized rough set based fuzzy K-Modes for categorical data’. We propose an amalgamation of the simple K-modes algorithm, the Rough and Fuzzy set based K-modes and the Genetic Algorithm to form a new algorithm,which we hypothesise, will provide better Centroid Model clustering results, than existing standard algorithms. In the proposed algorithm, the initialization and updation of modes is done by the use of genetic algorithms while the membership values are calculated using the rough set and fuzzy logic.

Keywords: categorical data, fuzzy logic, genetic algorithm, K modes clustering, rough sets

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Authors: Sandeep Kaur, Jenny Vuong, Marcel Julliard, Sean O'Donoghue

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Time-series data are useful for modelling as they can enable model-evaluation. However, when reconstructing models from phosphoproteomic data, often non-exact methods are utilised, as the knowledge regarding the network structure, such as, which kinases and phosphatases lead to the observed phosphorylation state, is incomplete. Thus, such reactions are often hypothesised, which gives rise to uncertainty. Here, we propose a framework, implemented via a web-based tool (as an extension to Minardo), which given time-series phosphoproteomic datasets, can generate κ models. The incompleteness and uncertainty in the generated model and reactions are clearly presented to the user via the visual method. Furthermore, we demonstrate, via a toy EGF signalling model, the use of algorithmic verification to verify κ models. Manually formulated requirements were evaluated with regards to the model, leading to the highlighting of the nodes causing unsatisfiability (i.e. error causing nodes). We aim to integrate such methods into our web-based tool and demonstrate how the identified erroneous nodes can be presented to the user via the visual method. Thus, in this research we present a framework, to enable a user to explore phosphorylation proteomic time-series data in the context of models. The observer can visualise which reactions in the model are highly uncertain, and which nodes cause incorrect simulation outputs. A tool such as this enables an end-user to determine the empirical analysis to perform, to reduce uncertainty in the presented model - thus enabling a better understanding of the underlying system.

Keywords: κ-models, model verification, time-series phosphoproteomic datasets, uncertainty and error visualisation

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Authors: Nafiseh Mollaei, Reihaneh Kardehi Moghaddam

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In case of Diabetes Mellitus the controlling of insulin is very difficult. This illness is an incurable disease affecting millions of people worldwide. Glucose is a sugar which provides energy to the cells. Insulin is a hormone which supports the absorption of glucose. Fuzzy control strategy is attractive for glucose control because it mimics the first and second phase responses that the pancreas beta cells use to control glucose. We propose two control algorithms a type-1 fuzzy controller and an interval type-2 fuzzy method for the insulin infusion. The closed loop system has been simulated for different patients with different parameters, in present of the food intake disturbance and it has been shown that the blood glucose concentrations at a normoglycemic level of 110 mg/dl in the reasonable amount of time. This paper deals with type 1 diabetes as a nonlinear model, which has been simulated in MATLAB-SIMULINK environment. The novel model, termed the Augmented Minimal Model is used in the simulations. There are some uncertainties in this model due to factors such as blood glucose, daily meals or sudden stress. In addition to eliminate the effects of uncertainty, different control methods may be utilized. In this article, fuzzy controller performance were assessed in terms of its ability to track a normoglycemic set point (110 mg/dl) in response to a [0-10] g meal disturbance. Finally, the development reported in this paper is supposed to simplify the insulin delivery, so increasing the quality of life of the patient.

Keywords: interval type-2, fuzzy controller, minimal augmented model, uncertainty

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Authors: Charline David, Alexandre Blondin Massé, Arnaud Zinflou

Abstract:

In 2016, Clements, Hurn, and Li proposed a multiple equation time series approach for the short-term load forecasting, reporting an average mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 1.36% on an 11-years dataset for the Queensland region in Australia. We present an adaptation of their model to the electrical power load consumption for the whole Quebec province in Canada. More precisely, we take into account two additional meteorological variables — cloudiness and wind speed — on top of temperature, as well as the use of multiple meteorological measurements taken at different locations on the territory. We also consider other minor improvements. Our final model shows an average MAPE score of 1:79% over an 8-years dataset.

Keywords: short-term load forecasting, special days, time series, multiple equations, parallelization, clustering

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Authors: Zeynep Sener, Mehtap Dursun

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Supplier evaluation and selection is one of the most important components of an effective supply chain management system. Due to the expanding competition in healthcare, selecting the right medical device suppliers offers great potential for increasing quality while decreasing costs. This paper proposes a fuzzy decision making approach for medical supplier selection. A real-world medical device supplier selection problem is presented to illustrate the application of the proposed decision methodology.

Keywords: fuzzy decision making, fuzzy multiple objective programming, medical supply chain, supplier selection

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Authors: Hervice Roméo Fogno Fotsoa, Germaine Djuidje Kenmoe, Claude Vidal Aloyem Kazé

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One of the main applications of machine learning is the prediction of time series. But a more accurate prediction requires a more optimal model of machine learning. Several optimization techniques have been developed, but without considering the input variables disposition of the system. Thus, this work aims to present a new machine learning architecture optimization technique based on their optimal input variables disposition. The validations are done on the prediction of wind time series, using data collected in Cameroon. The number of possible dispositions with four input variables is determined, i.e., twenty-four. Each of the dispositions is used to perform the prediction, with the main criteria being the training and prediction performances. The results obtained from a static architecture and a dynamic architecture of neural networks have shown that these performances are a function of the input variable's disposition, and this is in a different way from the architectures. This analysis revealed that it is necessary to take into account the input variable's disposition for the development of a more optimal neural network model. Thus, a new neural network training algorithm is proposed by introducing the search for the optimal input variables disposition in the traditional back-propagation algorithm. The results of the application of this new optimization approach on the two single neural network architectures are compared with the previously obtained results step by step. Moreover, this proposed approach is validated in a collaborative optimization method with a single objective optimization technique, i.e., genetic algorithm back-propagation neural networks. From these comparisons, it is concluded that each proposed model outperforms its traditional model in terms of training and prediction performance of time series. Thus the proposed optimization approach can be useful in improving the accuracy of time series forecasts. This proves that the proposed optimization approach can be useful in improving the accuracy of time series prediction based on machine learning.

Keywords: input variable disposition, machine learning, optimization, performance, time series prediction

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