Search results for: forecast aggregation

Authors: Yazun Jarrar

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Smoking has effect on platelet aggregation and the activity of anti-platelet drugs. The chemical 20-hydroxyeicosatetraenoic acid (20-HETE) is a cardiotoxic arachidonic acid metabolite which increases platelet aggregation. In this study, we investigated the influence of cigarette smoking on 20-HETE levels and protein expression of 20-HETE producing enzyme CYP4A11 in isolated platelets from smoker and non-smoker volunteers. The protein expression and 20-HETE levels were analyzed using immunoblot and High-Performance Liquid Chromatography with Mass Spectrometry (HPL-MS) assays. The results showed that 20-HETE level was higher significantly among smokers than non-smokers (t-test, p-value<0.05). The protein expression of CYP4A11 was significantly higher (t-test, p-value<0.05) among the platelets of smokers. We concluded that cigarette smoking increased the level of platelet activator 20-HETE through increasing the protein expression of CYP4A11. These findings may increase the understanding of smoking-drug interaction during antiplatelets therapy.

Keywords: smoking, 20-HETE, CYP4A11, platelet

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Authors: A. Degale Desta, Cheng Jian

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Deep learning application in computer vision is rapidly advancing, giving it the ability to monitor the public and quickly identify potentially anomalous behaviour from crowd scenes. Therefore, the purpose of the current work is to improve the performance of safety of people in crowd events from panic behaviour through introducing the innovative idea of Aggregation of Ensembles (AOE), which makes use of the pre-trained ConvNets and a pool of classifiers to find anomalies in video data with packed scenes. According to the theory of algorithms that applied K-means, KNN, CNN, SVD, and Faster-CNN, YOLOv5 architectures learn different levels of semantic representation from crowd videos; the proposed approach leverages an ensemble of various fine-tuned convolutional neural networks (CNN), allowing for the extraction of enriched feature sets. In addition to the above algorithms, a long short-term memory neural network to forecast future feature values and a handmade feature that takes into consideration the peculiarities of the crowd to understand human behavior. On well-known datasets of panic situations, experiments are run to assess the effectiveness and precision of the suggested method. Results reveal that, compared to state-of-the-art methodologies, the system produces better and more promising results in terms of accuracy and processing speed.

Keywords: action recognition, computer vision, crowd detecting and tracking, deep learning

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Authors: Jyun-Guo You, Wei-Lung Tseng

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Herein, this study represents a synthetic route for producing highly luminescent AuNCs based on the integration of two concepts, including thiol-induced luminescence enhancement of ligand-insufficient GSH-AuNCs and Ce3+-induced aggregation of GSH-AuNCs. The synthesis of GSH-AuNCs was conducted by modifying the previously reported procedure. To produce more Au(I)-GSH complexes on the surface of ligand-insufficient GSH-AuNCs, the extra GSH is added to attach onto the AuNC surface. The formed ligand-sufficient GSH-AuNCs (LS-GSH-AuNCs) emit relatively strong luminescence. The luminescence of LS-GSH-AuNCs is further enhanced by the coordination of two carboxylic groups (pKa1 = 2 and pKa2 = 3.5) of GSH and lanthanide ions, which induce the self-assembly of LS-GSH-AuNCs. As a result, the quantum yield of the self-assembled LS-GSH-AuNCs (SA-AuNCs) was improved to be 13%. Interestingly, the SA-AuNCs were dissembled into LS-GSH-AuNCs in the presence of adenosine triphosphate (ATP) because of the formation of the ATP- lanthanide ion complexes. Our assay was employed to detect alkaline phosphatase (ALP) activity over the range of 0.1−10 U/mL with a limit of detection (LOD) of 0.03 U/mL.

Keywords: self-assembly, lanthanide ion, adenosine triphosphate, alkaline phosphatase

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Authors: Redouane Larbi Boufeniza, Jing-Jia Luo

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This study assesses the suitability of deep learning (DL) for downscaling sea surface temperature (SST) over the Mediterranean Sea in the context of seasonal forecasting. We design a set of experiments that compare different DL configurations and deploy the best-performing architecture to downscale one-month lead forecasts of June–September (JJAS) SST from the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Climate Forecast System version 1.0 (NUIST-CFS1.0) for the period of 1982–2020. We have also introduced predictors over a larger area to include information about the main large-scale circulations that drive SST over the Mediterranean Sea region, which improves the downscaling results. Finally, we validate the raw model and downscaled forecasts in terms of both deterministic and probabilistic verification metrics, as well as their ability to reproduce the observed precipitation extreme and spell indicator indices. The results showed that the convolutional neural network (CNN)-based downscaling consistently improves the raw model forecasts, with lower bias and more accurate representations of the observed mean and extreme SST spatial patterns. Besides, the CNN-based downscaling yields a much more accurate forecast of extreme SST and spell indicators and reduces the significant relevant biases exhibited by the raw model predictions. Moreover, our results show that the CNN-based downscaling yields better skill scores than the raw model forecasts over most portions of the Mediterranean Sea. The results demonstrate the potential usefulness of CNN in downscaling seasonal SST predictions over the Mediterranean Sea, particularly in providing improved forecast products.

Keywords: Mediterranean Sea, sea surface temperature, seasonal forecasting, downscaling, deep learning

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Authors: Ting Ye, Nhan Phan-Thien, Chwee Teck Lim, Lina Peng, Huixin Shi

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In biofluid flow systems, often the flow problems of fluids of complex structures, such as the flow of red blood cells (RBCs) through complex capillary vessels, need to be considered. In this paper, we aim to apply a particle-based method, Smoothed Dissipative Particle Dynamics (SDPD), to simulate the motion and deformation of RBCs in complex micro-tubes. We first present the theoretical models, including SDPD model, RBC-fluid interaction model, RBC deformation model, RBC aggregation model, and boundary treatment model. After that, we show the verification and validation of these models, by comparing our numerical results with the theoretical, experimental and previously-published numerical results. Finally, we provide some simulation cases, such as the motion and deformation of RBCs in rectangular, cylinder, curved, bifurcated, and constricted micro-tubes, respectively.

Keywords: aggregation, deformation, red blood cell, smoothed dissipative particle dynamics

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Authors: Pooja Mishra, Chris Pollett

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This paper explores efficient ways to implement various media-updating features like news aggregation, video conversion, and bulk email handling. All of these jobs share the property that they are periodic in nature, and they all benefit from being handled in a distributed fashion. The data for these jobs also often comes from a social or collaborative source. We isolate the class of periodic, one round map reduce jobs as a useful setting to describe and handle media updating tasks. As such tasks are simpler than general map reduce jobs, programming them in a general map reduce platform could easily become tedious. This paper presents a MediaUpdater module of the Yioop Open Source Search Engine Web Portal designed to handle such jobs via an extension of a PHP class. We describe how to implement various media-updating tasks in our system as well as experiments carried out using these implementations on an Amazon Web Services cluster.

Keywords: distributed jobs framework, news aggregation, video conversion, email

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Authors: Akinbo Razak Yinka, Adesanya Kehinde Kazeem, Oladokun Oluwagbenga Peter

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Time series data are sequences of observations collected over a period of time. Such data can be used to predict health outcomes, such as disease progression, mortality, hospitalization, etc. The Statistical approach is based on mathematical models that capture the patterns and trends of the data, such as autocorrelation, seasonality, and noise, while Neural methods are based on artificial neural networks, which are computational models that mimic the structure and function of biological neurons. This paper compared both parametric and non-parametric time series models of patients treated for malaria in Maternal and Child Health Centres in Lagos State, Nigeria. The forecast methods considered linear regression, Integrated Moving Average, ARIMA and SARIMA Modeling for the parametric approach, while Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Network were used for the non-parametric model. The performance of each method is evaluated using the Mean Absolute Error (MAE), R-squared (R2) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) as criteria to determine the accuracy of each model. The study revealed that the best performance in terms of error was found in MLP, followed by the LSTM and ARIMA models. In addition, the Bootstrap Aggregating technique was used to make robust forecasts when there are uncertainties in the data.

Keywords: ARIMA, bootstrap aggregation, MLP, LSTM, SARIMA, time-series analysis

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Authors: Jonathan Iworiso

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Forecasting the equity premium out-of-sample is a major concern to researchers in finance and emerging markets. The quest for a superior model that can forecast the equity premium with significant economic gains has resulted in several controversies on the choice of variables and suitable techniques among scholars. This research focuses mainly on the application of Regression Training (RT) techniques to forecast monthly equity premium out-of-sample recursively with an expanding window method. A broad category of sophisticated regression models involving model complexity was employed. The RT models include Ridge, Forward-Backward (FOBA) Ridge, Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO), Relaxed LASSO, Elastic Net, and Least Angle Regression were trained and used to forecast the equity premium out-of-sample. In this study, the empirical investigation of the RT models demonstrates significant evidence of equity premium predictability both statistically and economically relative to the benchmark historical average, delivering significant utility gains. They seek to provide meaningful economic information on mean-variance portfolio investment for investors who are timing the market to earn future gains at minimal risk. Thus, the forecasting models appeared to guarantee an investor in a market setting who optimally reallocates a monthly portfolio between equities and risk-free treasury bills using equity premium forecasts at minimal risk.

Keywords: regression training, out-of-sample forecasts, expanding window, statistical predictability, economic significance, utility gains

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Authors: Ekapon Thienthaworn

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This research aims to study the reliability of the forecasting factor in social media by using survey research methods with questionnaires. The sampling is the group of undergraduate students in Bangkok. A multiple-step random number of 400 persons, data analysis are descriptive statistics with multivariate regression analysis. The research found the average of the overall trust at the intermediate level for reading the news in social media and the results of the multivariate regression analysis to find out the factors that forecast credibility of the media found the only content that has the power to forecast reliability of undergraduate students in Bangkok to reading the news on social media at the significance level.at 0.05.These can be factors with forecasts reliability of news in social media by a variable that has the highest influence factor of the media content and the speed is also important for reliability of the news.

Keywords: credibility of news, behaviors and attitudes, social media, web board

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Authors: Sharmin Ferdewsi Rakhi, AHM Mohsinul Reza, Brynley Davies, Jianzhong Wang, Youhong Tang, Jian Qin

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Mass production of microalgae has become a focus of research owing to their promising aspects for sustainable food, biofunctional compounds, and biofuel feedstock. However, low lipid content with optimum algal biomass is still a challenge that must be resolved for commercial use. This research aims to determine the effects of light spectral shift and reactive oxygen species (ROS) on growth and lipid biosynthesis in a green microalga, Chlamydomonas reinhardtii. Aggregation Induced Emission (AIE)-based photosensitisers, CN-TPAQ-PF6 ([C₃₂H₂₃N₄]+) with high ROS productivity, was introduced into the algal culture media separately for effective conversion of the green-yellow-light to the red spectra. The intense photon energy and high-photon flux density in the photosystems and ROS supplementation induced photosynthesis and lipid biogenesis. In comparison to the control, maximum algal growth (0.15 g/l) was achieved at 2 µM CN-TPAQ-PF6 exposure. A significant increase in total lipid accumulation (146.87 mg/g dry biomass) with high proportion of 10-Heptadecanoic acid (C17:1) linolenic acid (C18:2), α-linolenic acid (C18:3) was observed. The elevated level of cellular NADP/NADPH triggered the Acetyl-Co-A production in lipid biogenesis cascade. Furthermore, MTT analysis suggested that this nanomaterial is highly biocompatible on HaCat cell lines with 100% cell viability. This study reveals that the AIE-based approach can strongly impact algal biofactory development for sustainable food, healthy lipids and eco-friendly biofuel.

Keywords: microalgae, photosensitiser, lipid, biomass, aggregation-induced-emission, reactive oxygen species

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Authors: Hamza Javar Magnier, Robin Curtis

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There have been rapid advances in the upstream processing of protein therapeutics, which has shifted the bottleneck to downstream purification and formulation. Finding liquid formulations with shelf lives of up to two years is increasingly difficult for some of the newer therapeutics, which have been engineered for activity, but their formulations are often viscous, can phase separate, and have a high propensity for irreversible aggregation1. We explore means to develop improved predictive ability from a better understanding of how protein-protein interactions on formulation conditions (pH, ionic strength, buffer type, presence of excipients) and how these impact upon the initial steps in protein self-association and aggregation. In this work, we study the initial steps in the aggregation pathways using a minimal protein model based on square-well potentials and discontinuous molecular dynamics. The effect of model parameters, including range of interaction, stiffness, chain length, and chain sequence, implies that protein models fold according to various pathways. By reducing the range of interactions, the folding- and collapse- transition come together, and follow a single-step folding pathway from the denatured to the native state2. After parameterizing the model interaction-parameters, we developed an understanding of low-temperature conformational properties and fluctuations, and the correlation to the folding transition of proteins in isolation. The model fluctuations increase with temperature. We observe a low-temperature point, below which large fluctuations are frozen out. This implies that fluctuations at low-temperature can be correlated to the folding transition at the melting temperature. Because proteins “breath” at low temperatures, defining a native-state as a single structure with conserved contacts and a fixed three-dimensional structure is misleading. Rather, we introduce a new definition of a native-state ensemble based on our understanding of the core conservation, which takes into account the native fluctuations at low temperatures. This approach permits the study of a large range of length and time scales needed to link the molecular interactions to the macroscopically observed behaviour. In addition, these models studied are parameterized by fitting to experimentally observed protein-protein interactions characterized in terms of osmotic second virial coefficients.

Keywords: protein folding, native-ensemble, conformational fluctuation, aggregation

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Authors: Parvaneh Eskandari, Rachel O'Reilly

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In the last years, controlling the self-assembly behavior of stimuli-responsive nano-objects, including micelles, vesicles, worm-like, etc., at different conditions is considered a pertinent challenge in the polymer community. The aim of the project was to synthesize aggregation-induced emission (AIE)-active stimuli-responsive polymeric nano-objects to control the self-assemblies morphologies of the prepared nano-objects. Two types of nanoobjects, micelle and vesicles, including PDMAEMA-b-P(BzMA-TPEMA) [PDMAEMA: poly(N,Ndimethylaminoethyl methacrylate); P(BzMA-TPEMA): poly[benzyl methacrylate-co- tetraphenylethene methacrylate]] were synthesized by using reversible addition−fragmentation chain-transfer (RAFT)- mediated polymerization-induced self-assembly (PISA), which combines polymerization and self-assembly in a single step. Transmission electron microscope and dynamic light scattering (DLS) analysis were used to confirm the formed self-assemblies morphologies. The controlled self-assemblies were applied as nitrophenolic compounds (NPCs) adsorbents from wastewater, thanks to their CO2-responsive part, PDMAEMA. Moreover, the fluorescence-active part of the prepared nano-objects, P(BzMA-TPEMA), played a key role in the detection of the NPCs at the aqueous solution. The optical properties of the prepared nano-objects were studied by UV/Vis and fluorescence spectroscopies. For responsivity investigations, the hydrodynamic diameter and Zeta-potential (ζ-potential) of the sample's aqueous solution were measured by DLS. In the end, the prepared nano-objects were used for the detection and adsorption of different NPCs.

Keywords: aggregation-induced emission polymers, stimuli-responsive polymers, reversible addition−fragmentation chain-transfer polymerization, polymerization-induced self-assembly, wastewater treatment

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Authors: Muhammad Tufail, Jawad Hussain, Hammad Hussain, Imran Hafeez, Naveed Ahmad

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Road safety performance index is a composite index which combines various indicators of road safety into single number. Development of a road safety performance index using appropriate safety performance indicators is essential to enhance road safety. However, a road safety performance index in developing countries has not been given as much priority as needed. The primary objective of this research is to develop a general Road Safety Performance Index (RSPI) for developing countries based on the facility as well as behavior of road user. The secondary objectives include finding the critical inputs in the RSPI and finding the better method of making the index. In this study, the RSPI is developed by selecting four main safety performance indicators i.e., protective system (seat belt, helmet etc.), road (road width, signalized intersections, number of lanes, speed limit), number of pedestrians, and number of vehicles. Data on these four safety performance indicators were collected using observation survey on a 20 km road section of the National Highway N-125 road Taxila, Pakistan. For the development of this composite index, two methods are used: a) Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and b) Equal Weighting (EW) method. PCA is used for extraction, weighting, and linear aggregation of indicators to obtain a single value. An individual index score was calculated for each road section by multiplication of weights and standardized values of each safety performance indicator. However, Simple Average technique was used for weighting and linear aggregation of indicators to develop a RSPI. The road sections are ranked according to RSPI scores using both methods. The two weighting methods are compared, and the PCA method is found to be much more reliable than the Simple Average Technique.

Keywords: indicators, aggregation, principle component analysis, weighting, index score

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Authors: Nkongho Ayuketang Arreyndip, Ebobenow Joseph

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In this paper, temperature extremes are forecast by employing the block maxima method of the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution to analyse temperature data from the Cameroon Development Corporation (CDC). By considering two sets of data (raw data and simulated data) and two (stationary and non-stationary) models of the GEV distribution, return levels analysis is carried out and it was found that in the stationary model, the return values are constant over time with the raw data, while in the simulated data the return values show an increasing trend with an upper bound. In the non-stationary model, the return levels of both the raw data and simulated data show an increasing trend with an upper bound. This clearly shows that although temperatures in the tropics show a sign of increase in the future, there is a maximum temperature at which there is no exceedance. The results of this paper are very vital in agricultural and environmental research.

Keywords: forecasting, generalized extreme value (GEV), meteorology, return level

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Authors: John Pomerat, Aviv Segev

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Recently, deep learning has had many theoretical breakthroughs. For deep learning to be successful in the industry, however, there need to be practical algorithms capable of handling many real-world hiccups preventing the immediate application of a learning algorithm. Although AI promises to revolutionize the healthcare industry, getting access to patient data in order to train learning algorithms has not been easy. One proposed solution to this is data- sharing. In this paper, we propose an alternative protocol, based on multi-party computation, to train deep learning models while maintaining both the privacy and security of training data. We examine three methods of training neural networks in this way: Transfer learning, average ensemble learning, and series network learning. We compare these methods to the equivalent model obtained through data-sharing across two different experiments. Additionally, we address the security concerns of this protocol. While the motivating example is healthcare, our findings regarding multi-party computation of neural network training are purely theoretical and have use-cases outside the domain of healthcare.

Keywords: neural network aggregation, multi-party computation, transfer learning, average ensemble learning

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Authors: V. Churkin, M. Lopatin

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The purpose of the paper is to estimate the US small wind turbines market potential and forecast the small wind turbines sales in the US. The forecasting method is based on the application of the Bass model and the generalized Bass model of innovations diffusion under replacement purchases. In the work an exponential distribution is used for modeling of replacement purchases. Only one parameter of such distribution is determined by average lifetime of small wind turbines. The identification of the model parameters is based on nonlinear regression analysis on the basis of the annual sales statistics which has been published by the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) since 2001 up to 2012. The estimation of the US average market potential of small wind turbines (for adoption purchases) without account of price changes is 57080 (confidence interval from 49294 to 64866 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 15 years, and 62402 (confidence interval from 54154 to 70648 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 20 years. In the first case the explained variance is 90,7%, while in the second - 91,8%. The effect of the wind turbines price changes on their sales was estimated using generalized Bass model. This required a price forecast. To do this, the polynomial regression function, which is based on the Berkeley Lab statistics, was used. The estimation of the US average market potential of small wind turbines (for adoption purchases) in that case is 42542 (confidence interval from 32863 to 52221 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 15 years, and 47426 (confidence interval from 36092 to 58760 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 20 years. In the first case the explained variance is 95,3%, while in the second –95,3%.

Keywords: bass model, generalized bass model, replacement purchases, sales forecasting of innovations, statistics of sales of small wind turbines in the United States

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Authors: Tin Thongthammachart, Wanida Jinsart

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Atmospheric particulate matter particles with a diameter less than 10 microns (PM₁₀) and less than 2.5 microns (PM₂.₅) have adverse health effect. The impact from PM was studied from both health and regulatory perspective. Ambient PM data was collected over ten years in Bangkok and vicinity areas of Thailand from 2007 to 2017. Statistical models were used to forecast PM concentrations from 2018 to 2020. Monitoring monthly data averaged concentration of PM₁₀ and PM₂.₅ were used as input to forecast the monthly average concentration of PM. The forecasting results were validated by root means square error (RMSE). The predicted results were used to determine hazard risk for the carcinogenic disease. The health risk values were interpolated with GIS with ordinary kriging technique to create hazard maps in Bangkok and vicinity area. GIS-based maps illustrated the variability of PM distribution and high-risk locations. These evaluated results could support national policy for the sake of human health.

Keywords: PM₁₀, PM₂.₅, statistical models, atmospheric particulate matter

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Authors: Juliana Barcelos Cordeiro, Khashayar Mahani, Farbod Farzan, Mohsen A. Jafari

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Energy disaggregation has been focused by many energy companies since energy efficiency can be achieved when the breakdown of energy consumption is known. Companies have been investing in technologies to come up with software and/or hardware solutions that can provide this type of information to the consumer. On the other hand, not all people can afford to have these technologies. Therefore, in this paper, we present a methodology for breaking down the aggregate consumption and identifying the highdemanding end-uses profiles. These energy profiles will be used to build the forecast model for optimal control purpose. A facility with high cooling load is used as an illustrative case study to demonstrate the results of proposed methodology. We apply a high level energy disaggregation through a pattern recognition approach in order to extract the consumption profile of its rooftop packaged units (RTUs) and present a forecast model for the energy consumption.  

Keywords: energy consumption forecasting, energy efficiency, load disaggregation, pattern recognition approach

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Authors: Messis A., Adjebli A., Ayeche R., Talbi M., Tighilet K., Louardiane M.

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Cancers are the second cause of death worldwide. Prevalence and incidence of cancers is getting increased by aging and population growth. This study aims to predict and modeling the evolution of breast, Colorectal, Lung, Bladder and Prostate cancers over the period of 2014-2019. In this study, data were analyzed using time series analysis with double exponential smoothing method to forecast the future pattern. To describe and fit the appropriate models, Minitab statistical software version 17 was used. Between 2014 and 2019, the overall trend in the raw number of new cancer cases registered has been increasing over time; the change in observations over time has been increasing. Our forecast model is validated since we have good prediction for the period 2020 and data not available for 2021 and 2022. Time series analysis showed that the double exponential smoothing is an efficient tool to model the future data on the raw number of new cancer cases.

Keywords: cancer, time series, prediction, double exponential smoothing

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Authors: Dimitra Alexiou

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During the last 10 years, in spite of the economic crisis, the number of tourists arriving in Greece has increased, particularly during the tourist season from April to October. In this paper, the number of annual tourist arrivals is studied to explore their preferences with regard to the month of travel, the selected destinations, as well the amount of money spent. The collected data are processed with statistical methods, yielding numerical and graphical results. From the computation of statistical parameters and the forecasting with exponential smoothing, useful conclusions are arrived at that can be used by the Greek tourism authorities, as well as by tourist organizations, for planning purposes for the coming years. The results of this paper and the computed forecast can also be used for decision making by private tourist enterprises that are investing in Greece. With regard to the statistical methods, the method of Simple Exponential Smoothing of time series of data is employed. The search for a best forecast for 2017 and 2018 provides the value of the smoothing coefficient. For all statistical computations and graphics Microsoft Excel is used.

Keywords: tourism, statistical methods, exponential smoothing, land spatial planning, economy

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Authors: Snezhana G. Gocheva-Ilieva, Maya P. Stoimenova

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Ambient air pollution with fine particulate matter (PM10) is a systematic permanent problem in many countries around the world. The accumulation of a large number of measurements of both the PM10 concentrations and the accompanying atmospheric factors allow for their statistical modeling to detect dependencies and forecast future pollution. This study applies the classification and regression trees (CART) method for building and analyzing PM10 models. In the empirical study, average daily air data for the city of Pleven, Bulgaria for a period of 5 years are used. Predictors in the models are seven meteorological variables, time variables, as well as lagged PM10 variables and some lagged meteorological variables, delayed by 1 or 2 days with respect to the initial time series, respectively. The degree of influence of the predictors in the models is determined. The selected best CART models are used to forecast future PM10 concentrations for two days ahead after the last date in the modeling procedure and show very accurate results.

Keywords: cross-validation, decision tree, lagged variables, short-term forecasting

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Authors: Ksenija Dumičić, Anita Čeh Časni, Berislav Žmuk

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The aim of this paper is to select the most accurate forecasting method for predicting the future values of the unemployment rate in selected European countries. In order to do so, several forecasting techniques adequate for forecasting time series with trend component, were selected, namely: double exponential smoothing (also known as Holt`s method) and Holt-Winters` method which accounts for trend and seasonality. The results of the empirical analysis showed that the optimal model for forecasting unemployment rate in Greece was Holt-Winters` additive method. In the case of Spain, according to MAPE, the optimal model was double exponential smoothing model. Furthermore, for Croatia and Italy the best forecasting model for unemployment rate was Holt-Winters` multiplicative model, whereas in the case of Portugal the best model to forecast unemployment rate was Double exponential smoothing model. Our findings are in line with European Commission unemployment rate estimates.

Keywords: European Union countries, exponential smoothing methods, forecast accuracy unemployment rate

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Authors: Krishan Kumar, Mohit Mittal, Pramod Kumar

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Wireless sensor network is one of the most promising communication networks for monitoring remote environmental areas. In this network, all the sensor nodes are communicated with each other via radio signals. The sensor nodes have capability of sensing, data storage and processing. The sensor nodes collect the information through neighboring nodes to particular node. The data collection and processing is done by data aggregation techniques. For the data aggregation in sensor network, clustering technique is implemented in the sensor network by implementing self-organizing feature map (SOFM) neural network. Some of the sensor nodes are selected as cluster head nodes. The information aggregated to cluster head nodes from non-cluster head nodes and then this information is transferred to base station (or sink nodes). The aim of this paper is to manage the huge amount of data with the help of SOM neural network. Clustered data is selected to transfer to base station instead of whole information aggregated at cluster head nodes. This reduces the battery consumption over the huge data management. The network lifetime is enhanced at a greater extent.

Keywords: artificial neural network, data clustering, self organization feature map, wireless sensor network

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Authors: Tatyana Aleksandrovna Barbasova, Lev Sergeevich Kazarinov, Olga Valerevna Kolesnikova, Aleksandra Aleksandrovna Filimonova

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We regard forecasting of energy consumption by private production areas of a large industrial facility as well as by the facility itself. As for production areas the forecast is made based on empirical dependencies of the specific energy consumption and the production output. As for the facility itself implementation of the task to minimize the energy consumption forecasting error is based on adjustment of the facility’s actual energy consumption values evaluated with the metering device and the total design energy consumption of separate production areas of the facility. The suggested procedure of optimal energy consumption was tested based on the actual data of core product output and energy consumption by a group of workshops and power plants of the large iron and steel facility. Test results show that implementation of this procedure gives the mean accuracy of energy consumption forecasting for winter 2014 of 0.11% for the group of workshops and 0.137% for the power plants.

Keywords: energy consumption, energy consumption forecasting error, energy efficiency, forecasting accuracy, forecasting

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Authors: Luther Ollier, Sylvie Thiria, Anastase Charantonis, Carlos E. Mejia, Michel Crépon

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Sea Surface Height Anomaly (SLA) is a signature of the sub-mesoscale dynamics of the upper ocean. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is driven by these dynamics and can be used to improve the spatial interpolation of SLA fields. In this study, we focused on the temporal evolution of SLA fields. We explored the capacity of deep learning (DL) methods to predict short-term SLA fields using SST fields. We used simulated daily SLA and SST data from the Mercator Global Analysis and Forecasting System, with a resolution of (1/12)◦ in the North Atlantic Ocean (26.5-44.42◦N, -64.25–41.83◦E), covering the period from 1993 to 2019. Using a slightly modified image-to-image convolutional DL architecture, we demonstrated that SST is a relevant variable for controlling the SLA prediction. With a learning process inspired by the teaching-forcing method, we managed to improve the SLA forecast at five days by using the SST fields as additional information. We obtained predictions of a 12 cm (20 cm) error of SLA evolution for scales smaller than mesoscales and at time scales of 5 days (20 days), respectively. Moreover, the information provided by the SST allows us to limit the SLA error to 16 cm at 20 days when learning the trajectory.

Keywords: deep-learning, altimetry, sea surface temperature, forecast

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Authors: Aliaksandr Volchak, Мaryna Barushka

Abstract:

The territory of Belarus is studied quite well in terms of hydrology but runoff fluctuations over time require more detailed research in order to forecast changes in rivers runoff in future. Generally, river runoff is shaped by natural climatic factors, but man-induced impact has become so big lately that it can be compared to natural processes in forming runoffs. In Belarus, a heavy man load on the environment was caused by large-scale land reclamation in the 1960s. Lands of southern Belarus were reclaimed most, which contributed to changes in runoff. Besides, global warming influences runoff. Today we observe increase in air temperature, decrease in precipitation, changes in wind velocity and direction. These result from cyclic climate fluctuations and, to some extent, the growth of concentration of greenhouse gases in the air. Climate change affects Belarus’s water resources in different ways: in hydropower industry, other water-consuming industries, water transportation, agriculture, risks of floods. In this research we have done an assessment of river runoff according to the scenarios of climate change and global climate forecast presented in the 4th and 5th Assessment Reports conducted by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and later specified and adjusted by experts from Vilnius Gediminas Technical University with the use of a regional climatic model. In order to forecast changes in climate and runoff, we analyzed their changes from 1962 up to now. This period is divided into two: from 1986 up to now in comparison with the changes observed from 1961 to 1985. Such a division is a common world-wide practice. The assessment has revealed that, on the average, changes in runoff are insignificant all over the country, even with its irrelevant increase by 0.5 – 4.0% in the catchments of the Western Dvina River and north-eastern part of the Dnieper River. However, changes in runoff have become more irregular both in terms of the catchment area and inter-annual distribution over seasons and river lengths. Rivers in southern Belarus (the Pripyat, the Western Bug, the Dnieper, the Neman) experience reduction of runoff all year round, except for winter, when their runoff increases. The Western Bug catchment is an exception because its runoff reduces all year round. Significant changes are observed in spring. Runoff of spring floods reduces but the flood comes much earlier. There are different trends in runoff changes in spring, summer, and autumn. Particularly in summer, we observe runoff reduction in the south and west of Belarus, with its growth in the north and north-east. Our forecast of runoff up to 2035 confirms the trend revealed in 1961 – 2015. According to it, in the future, there will be a strong difference between northern and southern Belarus, between small and big rivers. Although we predict irrelevant changes in runoff, it is quite possible that they will be uneven in terms of seasons or particular months. Especially, runoff can change in summer, but decrease in the rest seasons in the south of Belarus, whereas in the northern part the runoff is predicted to change insignificantly.

Keywords: assessment, climate fluctuation, forecast, river runoff

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Authors: Wiwat Kittinaraporn, Napat Harnpornchai, Sutja Boonyachut

Abstract:

This paper deals with the application of a novel neural network technique, so-called Support Vector Machine (SVM). The objective of this study is to explore the variable and parameter of forecasting factors in the construction industry to build up forecasting model for construction quantity in Thailand. The scope of the research is to study the non-residential construction quantity in Thailand. There are 44 sets of yearly data available, ranging from 1965 to 2009. The correlation between economic indicators and construction demand with the lag of one year was developed by Apichat Buakla. The selected variables are used to develop SVM models to forecast the non-residential construction quantity in Thailand. The parameters are selected by using ten-fold cross-validation method. The results are indicated in term of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The MAPE value for the non-residential construction quantity predicted by Epsilon-SVR in corporation with Radial Basis Function (RBF) of kernel function type is 5.90. Analysis of the experimental results show that the support vector machine modelling technique can be applied to forecast construction quantity time series which is useful for decision planning and management purpose.

Keywords: forecasting, non-residential, construction, support vector machines

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Authors: Muhammad Abu-Khaizaran, Ahmad Faza’, Tariq Othman, Yahia Yousef

Abstract:

This paper presents a study to provide sufficient and reliable information about constructing a Photovoltaic energy profile of the Birzeit University campus (BZU) based on the weather forecast. The developed Photovoltaic energy profile helps to predict the energy yield of the Photovoltaic systems based on the weather forecast and hence helps planning energy production and consumption. Two models will be developed in this paper; a Clear Sky Irradiance model and a Cloud-Cover Radiation model to predict the irradiance for a clear sky day and a cloudy day, respectively. The adopted procedure for developing such models takes into consideration two levels of abstraction. First, irradiance and weather data were acquired by a sensory (measurement) system installed on the rooftop of the Information Technology College building at Birzeit University campus. Second, power readings of a fully operational 51kW commercial Photovoltaic system installed in the University at the rooftop of the adjacent College of Pharmacy-Nursing and Health Professions building are used to validate the output of a simulation model and to help refine its structure. Based on a comparison between a mathematical model, which calculates Clear Sky Irradiance for the University location and two sets of accumulated measured data, it is found that the simulation system offers an accurate resemblance to the installed PV power station on clear sky days. However, these comparisons show a divergence between the expected energy yield and actual energy yield in extreme weather conditions, including clouding and soiling effects. Therefore, a more accurate prediction model for irradiance that takes into consideration weather factors, such as relative humidity and cloudiness, which affect irradiance, was developed; Cloud-Cover Radiation Model (CRM). The equivalent mathematical formulas implement corrections to provide more accurate inputs to the simulation system. The results of the CRM show a very good match with the actual measured irradiance during a cloudy day. The developed Photovoltaic profile helps in predicting the output energy yield of the Photovoltaic system installed at the University campus based on the predicted weather conditions. The simulation and practical results for both models are in a very good match.

Keywords: clear-sky irradiance model, cloud-cover radiation model, photovoltaic, weather forecast

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Authors: Lule Basha, Eralda Gjika

Abstract:

The exchange rate is one of the most important economic variables, especially for a small, open economy such as Albania. Its effect is noticeable in one country's competitiveness, trade and current account, inflation, wages, domestic economic activity, and bank stability. This study investigates the fluctuation of Albania’s exchange rates using monthly average foreign currency, Euro (Eur) to Albanian Lek (ALL) exchange rate with a time span from January 2008 to June 2021, and the macroeconomic factors that have a significant effect on the exchange rate. Initially, the Random Forest Regression algorithm is constructed to understand the impact of economic variables on the behavior of monthly average foreign currencies exchange rates. Then the forecast of macro-economic indicators for 12 months was performed using time series models. The predicted values received are placed in the random forest model in order to obtain the average monthly forecast of the Euro to Albanian Lek (ALL) exchange rate for the period July 2021 to June 2022.

Keywords: exchange rate, random forest, time series, machine learning, prediction

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Authors: Purva Mishra, Rajesh Potlia, Kuljeet Singh Sandhu

Abstract:

The role of glycyl residues in the protein structure has lingered within the research community for the last several decades. Glycyl residue is the only amino acid that is achiral due to the lack of a side chain and can, therefore, exhibit Ramachandran conformations that are disallowed for L-amino acids. The structural and functional significance of glycyl residues with L-disallowed conformation, however, remains obscure. Through statistical analysis of various datasets, we found that the glycyls with L-disallowed conformations are over-represented at disease-associated sites and tend to be evolutionarily conserved. The mutations of L-disallowed glycyls tend to destabilize the native conformation, reduce protein solubility, and promote inter-molecular aggregations. We uncovered a structural motif referred to as “β-crescent” formed around the L-disallowed glycyl, which prevents β-sheet aggregation by disrupting the alternating pattern of β-pleats. The L-disallowed conformation of glycyls also holds predictive power to infer the pathogenic missense variants. Altogether, our observations highlight that the L-disallowed conformation of glycyls is selected to facilitate native folding and prevent inter-molecular aggregations. The findings may also have implications for designing more stable proteins and prioritizing the genetic lesions implicated in diseases.

Keywords: Ramachandran plot, β-sheet, protein stability, protein aggregation

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