Search results for: flood defense

Authors: Nien-Ming Hong, Kuei-Fang Huang

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Climate change is an important issue in future, which seriously affects water resources for a long term planning and management. Flood assessment is highly related with climate and land use. Increasing rainfall and urbanization will induce the inundated area in future. For adapting the impacts of climate change, a land use planning is a good strategy for reducing flood damage. The study is to build a trade-off process with different land use types. The Ta-Liao watershed is the study area with three types of land uses that are build-up, farm and forest. The build-up area is concentrated in the downstream of the watershed. Different rainfall amounts are applied for assessing the land use in 1996, 2005 and 2013. The adapted strategies are based on retarding the development of urban and a trade-off process. When a land changes from farm area to built-up area in downstream, this study is to search for a farm area and change it to forest/grass area or building a retention area in the upstream. For assessing the effects of the strategy, the inundation area is simulated by the Flo-2D model with different rainfall conditions and land uses. The results show inundation maps of several cases with land use change planning. The results also show the trade-off strategies and retention areas can decrease the inundated area and divide the inundated area, which are better than retarding urban development. The land use change is usually non-reverse and the planning should be constructed before the climate change.

Keywords: climate change, land use change, flood risk assessment, land use planning

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Authors: Betty Makena, Tsegaye Tadesse, Mark Svoboda

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Global warming has intensified the frequency and intensity of extreme climate disasters and led to unpredictable weather conditions. Consequently, rapid shifts between drought and floods, known as Drought-Flood Abrupt Alteration (DFAA), have become increasingly common. DFAA results in superimposed impacts of drought and floods within a short period, exacerbating the effects of the floods or drought event. Current disaster management plans often overlook DFAA events, as they primarily focus on either floods or drought. Therefore, effectively identifying DFAA events is crucial for developing effective mitigation strategies. This study aims to identify historical DFAA events in Kenya using the Long Cycle Drought-Flood Abrupt Alteration Index (LDFAI). The research will analyze the spatial distribution, temporal variation, and intensity of DFAA events from 1990 to 2023, as well as their socio-economic impacts. Understanding these events is important to develop more effective strategies to address the impacts of DFAA events. Findings from this study will inform decision making to develop coping strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of DFAA in Kenya.

Keywords: abrupt, alteration, drought, floods

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Authors: Susanna Pho

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With the rise in frequency of high impact flooding events and continued growth across the state, communities in Florida are increasingly turning to innovative higher regulatory standards to keep residents safe. Using models and maps that take future conditions into account can help coastal communities at high risk of flooding adapt, but the associated responsibilities of enforcing and educating stakeholders about floodplain management can be a barrier to adoption. This is especially true in communities that are already managing multiple maps, as adding more regulatory mapping may overwhelm resource-constrained building departments. Without effective workflow solutions, even small tasks like communicating regulations to residents or determining the most restrictive mapping for a permit application can become challenging when dealing with complex maps. Using the case study of Forerunner’s work with a partner community, this session will outline how the community combines technology with robust outreach strategies to boost resident communication. We’ll discuss how software like Forerunner can help communities pull together disparate datasets and mobilize information for property-specific outreach to provide smarter resources to a variety of stakeholders. it’ll explore how incorporating digital workflows into outreach can ensure faster response time, better compliance enforcement, and stronger data continuity. The presentation will also include suggestions on how other communities might be able to leverage data to strengthen their floodplain management programs.

Keywords: floodplain management, flood response, flood risk adaptation, flood protection - products and processes, flood risk assessment and recovery, innovative approaches

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Authors: Asawari Ajay Avhad

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The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a hydrological model designed to predict the complex interactions within natural and human-altered watersheds. This research applies the SWAT model to the Ulhas River basin, a small watershed undergoing urbanization and characterized by bowl-like topography. Three simulation scenarios (LC17, LC22, and LC27) are investigated, each representing different land use and land cover (LULC) configurations, to assess the impact of urbanization on runoff. The LULC for the year 2027 is generated using the MOLUSCE Plugin of QGIS, incorporating various spatial factors such as DEM, Distance from Road, Distance from River, Slope, and distance from settlements. Future climate data is simulated within the SWAT model using historical data spanning 30 years. A susceptibility map for runoff across the basin is created, classifying runoff into five susceptibility levels ranging from very low to very high. Sub-basins corresponding to major urban settlements are identified as highly susceptible to runoff. With consideration of future climate projections, a slight increase in runoff is forecasted. The reliability of the methodology was validated through the identification of sub-basins known for experiencing severe flood events, which were determined to be highly susceptible to runoff. The susceptibility map successfully pinpointed these sub-basins with a track record of extreme flood occurrences, thus reinforcing the credibility of the assessment methodology. This study suggests that the methodology employed could serve as a valuable tool in flood management planning.

Keywords: future land use impact, flood management, run off prediction, ArcSWAT

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Authors: C. Li, G. Coates, N. Johnson, M. Mc Guinness

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In the UK, flooding is responsible for significant losses to the economy due to the impact on businesses, the vast majority of which are Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs). Businesses of this nature tend to lack formal plans to aid their response to and recovery from disruptive events such as flooding. This paper reports on work on how an agent-based model (ABM) is being developed based on interview data gathered from SMEs at-risk of flooding and/or have direct experience of flooding. The ABM will enable simulations to be performed allowing investigations of different response strategies which SMEs may employ to lessen the impact of flooding, thus strengthening their resilience.

Keywords: ABM, flood response, SMEs, business continuity

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Authors: Liang Weichien

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Without adequate information and mitigation plan for natural disaster, the risk to urban populated areas will increase in the future as populations grow, especially in Taiwan. Taiwan is recognized as the world's high-risk areas, where an average of 5.7 times of floods occur per year should seek to strengthen coherence and consensus in how cities can plan for flood and climate change. Therefore, this study aims at understanding the vulnerability to flooding in Taipei city, Taiwan, by creating indicators and calculating the vulnerability of each study units. The indicators were grouped into sensitivity and adaptive capacity based on the definition of vulnerability of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The indicators were weighted by using Principal Component Analysis. However, current researches were based on the assumption that the composition and influence of the indicators were the same in different areas. This disregarded spatial correlation that might result in inaccurate explanation on local vulnerability. The study used Geographically Weighted Principal Component Analysis by adding geographic weighting matrix as weighting to get the different main flood impact characteristic in different areas. Cross Validation Method and Akaike Information Criterion were used to decide bandwidth and Gaussian Pattern as the bandwidth weight scheme. The ultimate outcome can be used for the reduction of damage potential by integrating the outputs into local mitigation plan and urban planning.

Keywords: flood vulnerability, geographically weighted principal components analysis, GWPCA, highly urbanized area, spatial correlation

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Authors: Liu Fangxin, Zhao Jijun

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Nowadays, China and the world are facing the same problems of flooding, city waterlogging and other environment issues. Throughout history, China had many excellent experiences dealing with the flood, and can be used as a significant reference for contemporary urban construction. In view of this, the research used the method of literature analysis to find out the main water storage measures in ancient cities, including reservoir storage and pond water storage. And it used the case study method to introduce the historical evolution, engineering measures and landscape design of 4 typical ancient Chinese cities in details. Then we found the pond and the reservoir were the main infrastructures for the ancient Chinese city to avoid the waterlogging and flood. At last this paper summed up the historical experience of Chinese traditional water storage and made conclusions that the establishment of a reasonable green water storage facilities could be used to solve today's rain and flood problems, and hoped to give some enlightenment of stormwater management to our modern city.

Keywords: ancient Chinese cities, water storage project, Chinese classical gardening, stormwater management, green facilities

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Authors: Zulkifli Yusop

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The severity of December 2014 flood on the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia has raised concern over the adequacy of existing land use practices and policies. This article assesses flood responses to selective logging, plantation establishment (oil palm and rubber) and their subsequent management regimes. The hydrological impacts were evaluated on two levels: on-site (mostly in the upstream) and off-site to reflect the cumulative impact at downstream. Results of experimental catchment studies suggest that on-site impact of flood could be kept to a minimum when selecting logging strictly adhere to the existing guidelines. However, increases in flood potential and sedimentation rate were observed with logging intensity and slope steepness. Forest conversion to plantation show the highest impacts. Except on the heavily compacted surfaces, the ground revegetation is usually rapid within two years upon the cessation of the logging operation. The hydrological impacts of plantation opening and replanting could be significantly reduced once the cover crop has fully established which normally takes between three to six months after sowing. However, as oil palms become taller and the canopy gets closer, the cover crop tends to die off due to light competition, and its protecting function gradually diminishes. The exposed soil is further compacted by harvesting machinery which subsequently leads to greater overland flow and erosion rates. As such, the hydrological properties of matured oil palm plantations are generally poorer than in young plantation. In hilly area, the undergrowth in rubber plantation is usually denser compared to under oil palm. The soil under rubber trees is also less compacted as latex collection is done manually. By considering the cumulative effects of land-use over space and time, selective logging seems to pose the least impact on flood potential, followed by planting rubber for latex, oil palm and Latex Timber Clone (LTC). The cumulative hydrological impact of LTC plantation is the most severe because of its shortest replanting rotation (12 to 15 years) compared to oil palm (25 years) and rubber for latex (35 years). Furthermore, the areas gazetted for LTC are mostly located on steeper slopes which are more susceptible to landslide and erosion. Forest has limited capability to store excess rainfall and is only effective in attenuating regular floods. Once the hydrologic storage is exceeded, the excess rainfall will appear as flood water. Therefore, for big floods, rainfall regime has a much bigger influence than land use.

Keywords: selective logging, plantation, extreme rainfall, debris flow

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Authors: Omar Ali, Adesh Ramsubhag, Jayaraj Jayaraman

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Seaweed extracts have been reported as plant biostimulants which could be a safer, organic alternative to harsh pesticides. The incentive to use seaweed-based biostimulants is becoming paramount in sustainable agriculture. The current study, therefore, screened a commercial extract of A. nodosum in tomatoes, cultivated in Trinidad to showcase the multiple beneficial effects. Foliar treatment with an A. nodosum commercial extract led to significant increases in fruit yield and a significant reduction of incidence of bacterial spots and early blight diseases under both greenhouse and field conditions. Investigations were carried out to reveal the possible mechanisms of action of this biostimulant through defense enzyme assays and transcriptome profiling via RNA sequencing of tomato. Studies into disease control mechanisms by A. nodosum showed that the extract stimulated the activity of enzymes such as peroxidase, phenylalanine ammonia-lyase, chitinase, polyphenol oxidase, and β-1,3-glucanase. Additionally, the transcriptome survey revealed the upregulation and enrichment of genes responsible for the biosynthesis of growth hormones, defense enzymes, PR proteins and defense-related secondary metabolites, as well as genes involved in the nutrient mobilization, photosynthesis and primary and secondary metabolic pathways. The results of the transcriptome study also demonstrated the cross-talks between growth and defense responses, confirming the bioelicitor and biostimulant value of seaweed extracts in plants. These effects could potentially implicate the benefits of seaweed extract and validate its usage in sustainable crop production.

Keywords: A. nodosum, biostimulants, elicitor, enzymes, growth responses, seaweeds, tomato, transcriptome analysis

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Authors: Eva L. Suarez, Daniel E. Meeroff, Yan Yong

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The U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) developed flood maps based on experts’ experience and estimates of the probability of flooding. Current flood-risk models evaluate flood risk with regional and subjective measures without impact from torrential rain and nuisance flooding at the neighborhood level. Nuisance flooding occurs in small areas in the community, where a few streets or blocks are routinely impacted. This type of flooding event occurs when torrential rainstorm combined with high tide and sea level rise temporarily exceeds a given threshold. In South Florida, this threshold is 1.7 ft above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW). The National Weather Service defines torrential rain as rain deposition at a rate greater than 0.3-inches per hour or three inches in a single day. Data from the Florida Climate Center, 1970 to 2020, shows 371 events with more than 3-inches of rain in a day in 612 months. The purpose of this research is to develop a data-driven method to determine comprehensive analytical damage-avoidance criteria that account for nuisance flood events at the single-family home level. The method developed uses the Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) method from the American Society of Quality (ASQ) to estimate the Damage Avoidance (DA) preparation for a 1-day 100-year storm. The Consequence of Nuisance Flooding (CoNF) is estimated from community mitigation efforts to prevent nuisance flooding damage. The Probability of Nuisance Flooding (PoNF) is derived from the frequency and duration of torrential rainfall causing delays and community disruptions to daily transportation, human illnesses, and property damage. Urbanization and population changes are related to the U.S. Census Bureau's annual population estimates. Data collected by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Natural Resources Conservation Service’s National Resources Inventory (NRI) and locally by the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD) track the development and land use/land cover changes with time. The intent is to include temporal trends in population density growth and the impact on land development. Results from this investigation provide the risk of nuisance flooding as a function of CoNF and PoNF for coastal areas of South Florida. The data-based criterion provides awareness to local municipalities on their flood-risk assessment and gives insight into flood management actions and watershed development.

Keywords: flood risk, nuisance flooding, urban flooding, FMEA

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Authors: Abhisek Chakrabarty, Subhraprakash Mandal

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Flash flood is one of the catastrophic natural hazards in the mountainous region of India. The recent flood in the Mandakini River in Kedarnath (14-17th June, 2013) is a classic example of flash floods that devastated Uttarakhand by killing thousands of people.The disaster was an integrated effect of high intensityrainfall, sudden breach of Chorabari Lake and very steep topography. Every year in Himalayan Region flash flood occur due to intense rainfall over a short period of time, cloud burst, glacial lake outburst and collapse of artificial check dam that cause high flow of river water. In Sikkim-Derjeeling Himalaya one of the probable flash flood occurrence zone is Teesta Watershed. The Teesta River is a right tributary of the Brahmaputra with draining mountain area of approximately 8600 Sq. km. It originates in the Pauhunri massif (7127 m). The total length of the mountain section of the river amounts to 182 km. The Teesta is characterized by a complex hydrological regime. The river is fed not only by precipitation, but also by melting glaciers and snow as well as groundwater. The present study describes an attempt to model surface runoff in upper Teesta basin, which is directly related to catastrophic flood events, by creating a system based on GIS technology. The main object was to construct a direct unit hydrograph for an excess rainfall by estimating the stream flow response at the outlet of a watershed. Specifically, the methodology was based on the creation of a spatial database in GIS environment and on data editing. Moreover, rainfall time-series data collected from Indian Meteorological Department and they were processed in order to calculate flow time and the runoff volume. Apart from the meteorological data, background data such as topography, drainage network, land cover and geological data were also collected. Clipping the watershed from the entire area and the streamline generation for Teesta watershed were done and cross-sectional profiles plotted across the river at various locations from Aster DEM data using the ERDAS IMAGINE 9.0 and Arc GIS 10.0 software. The analysis of different hydraulic model to detect flash flood probability ware done using HEC-RAS, Flow-2D, HEC-HMS Software, which were of great importance in order to achieve the final result. With an input rainfall intensity above 400 mm per day for three days the flood runoff simulation models shows outbursts of lakes and check dam individually or in combination with run-off causing severe damage to the downstream settlements. Model output shows that 313 Sq. km area were found to be most vulnerable to flash flood includes Melli, Jourthang, Chungthang, and Lachung and 655sq. km. as moderately vulnerable includes Rangpo,Yathang, Dambung,Bardang, Singtam, Teesta Bazarand Thangu Valley. The model was validated by inserting the rain fall data of a flood event took place in August 1968, and 78% of the actual area flooded reflected in the output of the model. Lastly preventive and curative measures were suggested to reduce the losses by probable flash flood event.

Keywords: flash flood, GIS, runoff, simulation model, Teesta river basin

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Authors: Ronald Villamar-Torres, Michael Staudt, Christopher Viot

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Cotton Gossypium hirsutum L. is one of the most important industrial crops, producing the world leading natural textile fiber, but is very prone to arthropod attacks that reduce crop yield and quality. Cotton cultivation, therefore, makes an outstanding use of chemical pesticides. In reaction to herbivorous arthropods, cotton plants nevertheless show natural defense reactions, in particular through volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emissions. These natural defense mechanisms are nowadays underutilized but have a very high potential for cotton cultivation, and elucidating their genetic bases will help to improve their use. Simulating herbivory attacks by mechanical wounding of cotton plants in greenhouse, we studied by qPCR the changes in gene expression for genes of the terpenoids biosynthesis pathway. Differentially expressed genes corresponded to higher levels of the terpenoids biosynthesis pathway and not to enzymes synthesizing particular terpenoids. The genes were mapped on the G. hirsutum L. reference genome; their global relationships inside the general metabolic pathways and the biosynthesis of secondary metabolites were visualized with iPath2. The chromatographic profiles of VOCs emissions indicated first monoterpenes and sesquiterpenes emissions, dominantly four molecules known to be involved in plant reactions to arthropod attacks. As a result, the study permitted to identify potential key genes for the emission of volatile terpenoids by cotton plants in reaction to an arthropod attack, opening possibilities for molecular-assisted cotton breeding in benefit of smallholder cotton growers.

Keywords: biosynthesis pathways, cotton, mechanisms of plant defense, terpenoids, volatile organic compounds

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Authors: Antonis Skouloudis, Georgios Deligiannakis, Panagiotis Vouros, Konstantinos Evangelinos, Loannis Nikolaou

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On November 15th, 2017, a catastrophic flash flood devastated the city of Mandra in Central Greece, resulting in 24 fatalities and extensive damages to the built environment and infrastructure. It was Greece's deadliest and most destructive flood event for the past 40 years. In this paper, we examine the consequences of this event too small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) operating in Mandra during the flood event, which were affected by the floodwaters to varying extents. In this context, we conducted semi-structured interviews with business owners-managers of 45 SMEs located in flood inundated areas and are still active nowadays, based on an interview guide that spanned 27 topics. The topics pertained to the disaster experience of the business and business owners-managers, knowledge and attitudes towards climate change and extreme weather, aspects of disaster preparedness and related assistance needs. Our findings reveal that the vast majority of the affected businesses experienced heavy damages in equipment and infrastructure or total destruction, which resulted in business interruption from several weeks up to several months. Assistance from relatives or friends helped for the damage repairs and business recovery, while state compensations were deemed insufficient compared to the extent of the damages. Most interviewees pinpoint flooding as one of the most critical risks, and many connect it with the climate crisis. However, they are either not willing or unable to apply property-level prevention measures in their businesses due to cost considerations or complex and cumbersome bureaucratic processes. In all cases, the business owners are fully aware of the flood hazard implications, and since the recovery from the event, they have engaged in basic mitigation measures and contingency plans in case of future flood events. Such plans include insurance contracts whenever possible (as the vast majority of the affected SMEs were uninsured at the time of the 2017 event) as well as simple relocations of critical equipment within their property. The study offers fruitful insights on latent drivers and barriers of SMEs' resilience capacity to flash flooding. In this respect, findings such as ours, highlighting tensions that underpin behavioral responses and experiences, can feed into a) bottom-up approaches for devising actionable and practical guidelines, manuals and/or standards on business preparedness to flooding, and, ultimately, b) policy-making for an enabling environment towards a flood-resilient SME sector.

Keywords: flash flood, small and medium-sized enterprises, organizational resilience capacity, disaster preparedness, qualitative study

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Authors: Ho Young Son, Bu Seog Ju, Woo Young Jung

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This study presents the seismic safety evaluation of weir structure subjected to strong earthquake ground motions, as a flood defense structure in civil engineering structures. The seismic safety analysis procedure was illustrated through development of Finite Element (FE) and InFinite Element (IFE) method in ABAQUS platform. The IFE model was generated by CINPS4, 4-node linear one-way infinite model as a sold continuum infinite element in foundation areas of the weir structure and then nonlinear FE model using friction model for soil-structure interactions was applied in this study. In order to understand the complex behavior of weir structures, nonlinear time history analysis was carried out. Consequently, it was interesting to note that the compressive stress gave more vulnerability to the weir structure, in comparison to the tensile stress, during an earthquake. The stress concentration of the weir structure was shown at the connection area between the weir body and stilling basin area. The stress both tension and compression was reduced in IFE model rather than FE model of weir structures.

Keywords: seismic, numerical analysis, FEM, weir, boundary condition

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Authors: Hilly Moodrick-Even Khen

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This study analyzes the legal regulation of the use of force in international law in the context of three emerging Palestinian forms of struggle against Israeli occupation: the Knife Intifada, Gaza border disturbances, and the launching of incendiary kites. It discusses what legal paradigms or concepts should regulate the type and level of force used in each situation—a question that is complicated by various dilemmas—and appraises the Israel Defence Forces policies tailored in response. Methodologically, the study is based on analysis of scholarship on the conceptual legal issues as well as dicta of the courts. It evaluates the applicability of two legal paradigms regulating the use of force in military operations—(i) the conduct of hostilities and (ii) law enforcement—as well as the concept of self-defense in international law and the escalation of force procedure. While the “Knife Intifada” clearly falls under the law enforcement paradigm, the disturbances at the border and the launching of incendiary kites raise more difficult questions, as applying law enforcement, especially in the latter case, can have undesirable ramifications for safeguarding humanitarian interests. The use of force in the cases of the border disturbances and the incendiary kites should thus be regulated, mutatis mutandis, by the concept of self-defense and escalation of force procedures; and in the latter case, the hostilities paradigm can also be applied. The study provides a factual description and analysis of the background and nature of the forms of struggle in Gaza and the West Bank—in each case surveying the geo-political developments since operation Protective Edge, contextualizing how the organized and unorganized violent activities evolved, and analyzing them in terms of level of organization and intensity. It then presents the two paradigms of the use of force—law enforcement and conduct of hostilities—and the concept of self-defense. Lastly, it uses the factual findings as the basis for legally analyzing which paradigm or concept regulating the use of force applies for each form of struggle. The study concludes that in most cases, the concept of self-defense is preferable to the hostilities or the law enforcement paradigms, as it best safeguards humanitarian interests and ensures the least loss of civilian lives.

Keywords: Israeli-Palestinian conflict, self defense, terrorism, use of force

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Authors: Agustin Maciel-Padilla

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This paper explores the most significant change to Japan’s security strategy since the end of World War II, in particular Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s government publication, in late 2022, of 3 policy documents (the National Security Strategy [NSS], the National Defense Strategy and the Defense Buildup Program) that basically propose to expand the country’s military capabilities and to increase military spending over a 5-year period. These policies represent a remarkable transformation of Japan’s defense-oriented policy followed since 1946. These proposals have been under analysis and debate since they were announced, as it was also Japan’s historic ambition to strengthening its deterrence capabilities in the context of a more complex regional security environment. Even though this new defense posture has attracted significant international attention, it is far from representing a done deal because of the fact that there is still a long way to go to implement this vision because of a wide variety of political and economic issues. Japan is currently experiencing the most dangerous security environment since the end of World War II, and this situation led Japan to intensify its dialogue with the United States to reflect a re-evaluation of deterrence in the face of a rapidly worsening security environment, a changing balance of power in East Asia, and the arrival of a new era of “great power competition”. Japan’s new documents, for instance, identify China and North Korea’s as posing, respectively, a strategic challenge and an imminent threat. Japan has also noted that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has contributed to erode the foundation of the international order. It is considered that Russia’s aggression was possible because Ukraine’s defense capability was not enough for effective deterrence. Moreover, Japan’s call for “counterstrike capabilities” results from a recognition that China and North Korea’s ballistic and cruise missiles could overwhelm Japan’s air and missile defense systems, and therefore there is an urgent need to strengthen deterrence and resilience. In this context, this paper will focus on the impact of these changes on the US-Japan alliance. Adapting this alliance to Tokyo’s new ambitions and capabilities could be critical in terms of updating their traditional protection/access to bases arrangement, interoperability and joint command and control issues, as well as regarding the security–economy nexus. While China is Japan’s largest trading partner, and trade between the two has been growing, US-Japan economic relationship has been slower, notwithstanding the fact that US-Japan security cooperation has strengthened significantly in recent years.

Keywords: us-japan alliance, japan security, great power competition, interoperability

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Authors: Matthew J. Flynn

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In early 2022, a thirty-mile column of Russian armor and assault vehicles sat poised to move south on the road to Kiev. That force has withdrawn as the Russians concentrate on attacking eastern Ukraine. Vladimir Putin’s armies appear content to destroy cities in an effort to attrit the Ukrainian will to continue fighting. That pivot signifies the acceptance of the ascendancy of the defense that now dictates any battlefield world-wide. To defeat what military theorist Carl von Clausewitz labeled “the stronger form of war” with a successful offensive requires an exercise in future war. In the past, the ascendancy of the defense has been overcome by a number of things including the application of superior leadership, better technology, organizational adaptation, and surpassing environmental limitations. A look at how each of these factors came to impact battle can tell us a great deal about what Ukraine means to tomorrow’s fight, and where the focus should lie to win the next war. Civilians presently secure the defensive ascendancy impacting warfare by dominating the shifts from domain to domain thanks to controlling access to cyberspace. That mandate will be tested and eventually falter. This paper tests the desirability of that proposition, as well as hoping for something more from humanity other than repeated and frequent wars making future war look much like past wars. As nations struggle to control cyberspace, a referendum on war as part of the human condition comes into focus.

Keywords: cyber, domains, future war, Putin, Ukraine

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Authors: Lorifel Hinay

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Natural disasters have increased in frequency and severity in the Philippines over the years resulting to detrimental impacts in school properties and lives of learners. The topography of the Province of Southern Leyte is a hotspot for inevitable natural disaster-causing hazards that could affect schools, cripple the educational system and cause environmental, cultural and social detrimental impacts making Disaster Risk Reduction and Management (DRRM) an indispensable platform to keep learners safe, secure and resilient. This study determined the schools’ vulnerability and risk assessment to earthquake, landslide, flood, storm surge and tsunami hazards, and its relationship to status in disaster preparedness. Descriptive-correlational research design was used where the respondents were School DRRM Coordinators/School Administrators and Municipal DRRM Officers. It was found that schools’ vulnerability and risk were high in landslide, medium in earthquake, and low in flood, storm surge and tsunami. Though schools were moderately prepared in disasters across all hazards, they were less accomplished in group organization and property security. Less planning preparation and less implementation of DRRM measures were observed in schools highly at risk of earthquake and landslide. Also, schools vulnerable to landslide and flood have very high property security. Topography and location greatly contributed to schools’ vulnerability to hazards, thus, a school-based disaster preparedness plan is hoped to help ensure that hazard-exposed schools can build a culture of safety, disaster resiliency and education continuity.

Keywords: disaster risk reduction and management, earthquake, flood, landslide, storm surge, tsunami

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Authors: Yao-Te Yen, Chao-Hsin Cheng, Meng-Shun Huang, Shan-Zong Cyue

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'Poppy-seed defense' has been a serious problem all over the world, that is because the opiates metabolites in urine are difficult to distinguish where they come from precisely. In this research, a powerful analytic method has been developed to trace the opiates metabolites in urine by Gas-Chromatography Isotope Ratio Mass Spectrometry (GC-IRMS). In order to eliminate the interference of synthesis to heroin or metabolism through human body, opiates metabolites in urine and sized heroin were hydrolyzed to morphine. Morphine is the key compound for tracing between opiates metabolites and seized heroin in this research. By matching δ13C and δ15N values through morphine, it is successful to distinguish the opiates metabolites coming from heroin or medicine. We tested seven heroin abuser’s metabolites and seized heroin in crime sites, the result showed that opiates metabolites coming from seized heroin, the variation of δ13C and δ15N for morphine are within 0.2 and 2.5‰, respectively. The variation of δ13C and δ15N for morphine are reasonable with the result of matrix match experiments. Above all, the uncertainty of 'Poppy-seed defense' can be solved easily by this analytic method, it provides the direct evidence for judge to make accurate conviction without hesitation.

Keywords: poppy-seed defense, heroin, opiates metabolites, isotope ratio mass spectrometry

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Authors: Ali Razmi, Saeed Golian

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Climate change is known to have the potential to impact adversely hydrologic patterns for variables such as rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature and sea level rise. Long-term average of these climate variables could possibly change over time due to climate change impacts. In this study, trend analysis was performed on rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature and water level data of a coastal area in Manhattan, New York City, Central Park and Battery Park stations to investigate if there is a significant change in the data mean. Partial Man-Kendall test was used for trend analysis. Frequency analysis was then performed on data using common probability distribution functions such as Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), normal, log-normal and log-Pearson. Goodness of fit tests such as Kolmogorov-Smirnov are used to determine the most appropriate distributions. In flood frequency analysis, rainfall and water level data are often separately investigated. However, in determining flood zones, simultaneous consideration of rainfall and water level in frequency analysis could have considerable effect on floodplain delineation (flood extent and depth). The present study aims to perform flood frequency analysis considering joint probability distribution for rainfall and storm surge. First, correlation between the considered variables was investigated. Joint probability distribution of extreme water level and temperature was also investigated to examine how global warming could affect sea level flooding impacts. Copula functions were fitted to data and joint probability of water level with rainfall and temperature for different recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 25, 50, 100, 200, 500, 600 and 1000 was determined and compared with the severity of individual events. Results for trend analysis showed increase in long-term average of data that could be attributed to climate change impacts. GEV distribution was found as the most appropriate function to be fitted to the extreme climate variables. The results for joint probability distribution analysis confirmed the necessity for incorporation of both rainfall and water level data in flood frequency analysis.

Keywords: climate change, climate variables, copula, joint probability

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Authors: Habib Abida, Noura Dahri

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Flash floods are among the most serious natural hazards that have disastrous environmental and human impacts. They are associated with exceptional rain events, characterized by short durations, very high intensities, rapid flows and small spatial extent. Flash floods happen very suddenly and are difficult to forecast. They generally cause damage to agricultural crops and property, infrastructures, and may even result in the loss of human lives. The city of Gabes (South-eastern Tunisia) has been exposed to numerous damaging floods because of its mild topography, clay soil, high urbanization rate and erratic rainfall distribution. The risks associated with this situation are expected to increase further in the future because of climate change, deemed responsible for the increase of the frequency and the severity of this natural hazard. Recently, exceptional events hit Gabes City causing death and major property losses. A major flooding event hit the region on June 2nd, 2014, causing human deaths and major material losses. It resulted in the stagnation of storm water in the numerous low zones of the study area, endangering thereby human health and causing disastrous environmental impacts. The characterization of flood risk in Gabes Watershed (South-eastern Tunisia) is considered an important step for flood management. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method coupled with Monte Carlo simulation and geographic information system were applied to delineate and characterize flood areas. A spatial database was developed based on geological map, digital elevation model, land use, and rainfall data in order to evaluate the different factors susceptible to affect flood analysis. Results obtained were validated by remote sensing data for the zones that showed very high flood hazard during the extreme rainfall event of June 2014 that hit the study basin. Moreover, a survey was conducted from different areas of the city in order to understand and explore the different causes of this disaster, its extent and its consequences.

Keywords: analytical hierarchy process, flash floods, Gabes, remote sensing, Tunisia

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi, Abdolrasoul Telvari, Hossein Babazadeh

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Floods have huge environmental and economic impact. Therefore, flood prediction is given a lot of attention due to its importance. This study analysed the annual maximum streamflow (discharge) (AMS or AMD) of Karkheh River in Karkheh River Basin for flood predicting using ARIMA model. For this purpose, we use the Box-Jenkins approach, which contains four-stage method model identification, parameter estimation, diagnostic checking and forecasting (predicting). The main tool used in ARIMA modelling was the SAS and SPSS software. Model identification was done by visual inspection on the ACF and PACF. SAS software computed the model parameters using the ML, CLS and ULS methods. The diagnostic checking tests, AIC criterion, RACF graph and RPACF graphs, were used for selected model verification. In this study, the best ARIMA models for Annual Maximum Discharge (AMD) time series was (4,1,1) with their AIC value of 88.87. The RACF and RPACF showed residuals’ independence. To forecast AMD for 10 future years, this model showed the ability of the model to predict floods of the river under study in the Karkheh River Basin. Model accuracy was checked by comparing the predicted and observation series by using coefficient of determination (R²).

Keywords: time series modelling, stochastic processes, ARIMA model, Karkheh river

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Authors: B. S. Chaudhary

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The severity and frequencies of different disasters on the globe is increasing in recent years. India is also facing the disasters in the form of drought, cyclone, earthquake, landslides, and floods. One of the major causes of disasters in northern India is flood. There are great losses and extensive damage to the agricultural crops, property, human, and animal life. This is causing environmental imbalances at places. The annual global figures for losses due to floods run into over 2 billion dollar. India is a vast country with wide variations in climate and topography. Due to widespread and heavy rainfall during the monsoon months, floods of varying magnitude occur all over the country during June to September. The magnitude depends upon the intensity of rainfall, its duration and also the ground conditions at the time of rainfall. Haryana, one of the agriculturally dominated northern states is also suffering from a number of disasters such as floods, desertification, soil erosion, land degradation etc. Earthquakes are also frequently occurring but of small magnitude so are not causing much concern and damage. Most of the damage in Haryana is due to floods. Floods in Haryana have occurred in 1978, 1988, 1993, 1995, 1998, and 2010 to mention a few. The present paper deals with the Remote Sensing and GIS applications in preparing flood risk maps in parts of Haryana State India. The satellite data of various years have been used for mapping of flood affected areas. The Flooded areas have been interpreted both visually and digitally and two classes-flooded and receded water/ wet areas have been identified for each year. These have been analyzed in GIS environment to prepare the risk maps. This shows the areas of high, moderate and low risk depending on the frequency of flood witness. The floods leave a trail of suffering in the form of unhygienic conditions due to improper sanitation, water logging, filth littered in the area, degradation of materials and unsafe drinking water making the people prone to many type diseases in short and long run. Attempts have also been made to enumerate the causes of floods. The suggestions are given for mitigating the fury of floods and proper management issues related to evacuation and safe places nearby.

Keywords: flood mapping, GIS, Haryana, India, remote sensing, space technology

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Authors: Seyeon Lee, Suyeon Lee, Julia Rogers

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This research investigates and records post-flood and typhoon conditions of low income housing in the Thua Thien Hue Province, Vietnam; area prone to extreme flooding in Central Vietnam. The cost of rebuilding houses after flood and typhoon has been always a burden for low income households. These costs often lead to the elimination of essential construction practices for disaster resistance. Despite relief efforts from international non-profit organizations and Vietnam government, the impacts of flood and typhoon damages to residential construction has been reoccurring to the same neighborhood annually. Notwithstanding its importance, this topic has not been systematically investigated. The study is limited to assistance provided to low income households documenting existing conditions of low income homes impacted by post flood and typhoon conditions in the Thua Thien Hue Province. The research identifies leading causes of the building failure from the natural disasters. Relief efforts and progress made since the last typhoon is documented. The quality of construction and repairs are assessed based on Home Builders Guide to Coastal Construction by Federal Emergency Management Agency. Focus group discussions and individual interviews with local residents from four different communities were conducted to get incites on repair effort by the non-profit organizations and Vietnam government, and their needs post flood and typhoon. The findings from the field study informed that many of the local people are now aware of the importance of improving housing conditions as one of the key coping strategies to withstand flood and typhoon events as it makes housing and community more resilient to future events. While there has been a remarkable improvement of housing and infrastructure with the support from the local government as well as the non-profit organizations, many households in the study areas are found to still live in weak and fragile housing conditions without gaining access to the aid to repair and strengthen the houses. Given that the major immediate recovery action taken by the local people tends to focus on repairing damaged houses, and on this ground, low-income households spend a considerable amount of their income on housing repair, providing proper and applicable construction practices will not only improve the housing condition, but also contribute to reducing poverty in Vietnam.

Keywords: disaster coping mechanism, housing welfare, low-income housing, recovery reduction

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Authors: Malaw Ndiaye, Karim Konate

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Blockchain and smart contracts can be used to facilitate almost any financial transaction. Thanks to these smart contracts, the settlement of dividends and coupons could be automated. The blockchain would allow all these transactions to be saved in a single ledger rather than in many databases through many organizations as is currently the case. Smart contracts have become lucrative and profitable targets for attackers because they can hold a large amount of money. This paper takes stock of cryptocurrency crime by assessing attacks due to smart contracts and the cost of losses. These losses are often the result of two types of malicious contracts: vulnerable contracts and criminal smart contracts. Studying the behavior of malicious contracts allows us to understand the root causes and consequences of attacks and the defense capabilities that exist although they do not definitively solve the crime problem. It makes it possible to approach new defense perspectives which will be concretized in future work.

Keywords: blockchain, malicious smart contracts, crypto-currency, crimes, attacks

Procedia PDF Downloads 237

Authors: Yogesh Kumar Singh, T. S. Murugesh Prabhu, Upasana Dutta, Girishchandra Yendargaye, Rahul Yadav, Rohini Gopinath Kale, Binay Kumar, Manoj Khare

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The Indian subcontinent is severely affected by floods that cause intense irreversible devastation to crops and livelihoods. With increased incidences of floods and their related catastrophes, an Early Warning System for Flood Prediction and an efficient Flood Management System for the river basins of India is a must. Accurately modeled hydrological conditions and a web-based early warning system may significantly reduce economic losses incurred due to floods and enable end users to issue advisories with better lead time. This study describes the design and development of an EWS-FP using advanced computational tools/methods, viz. High-Performance Computing (HPC), Remote Sensing, GIS technologies, and open-source tools for the Mahanadi River Basin of India. The flood prediction is based on a robust 2D hydrodynamic model, which solves shallow water equations using the finite volume method. Considering the complexity of the hydrological modeling and the size of the basins in India, it is always a tug of war between better forecast lead time and optimal resolution at which the simulations are to be run. High-performance computing technology provides a good computational means to overcome this issue for the construction of national-level or basin-level flash flood warning systems having a high resolution at local-level warning analysis with a better lead time. High-performance computers with capacities at the order of teraflops and petaflops prove useful while running simulations on such big areas at optimum resolutions. In this study, a free and open-source, HPC-based 2-D hydrodynamic model, with the capability to simulate rainfall run-off, river routing, and tidal forcing, is used. The model was tested for a part of the Mahanadi River Basin (Mahanadi Delta) with actual and predicted discharge, rainfall, and tide data. The simulation time was reduced from 8 hrs to 3 hrs by increasing CPU nodes from 45 to 135, which shows good scalability and performance enhancement. The simulated flood inundation spread and stage were compared with SAR data and CWC Observed Gauge data, respectively. The system shows good accuracy and better lead time suitable for flood forecasting in near-real-time. To disseminate warning to the end user, a network-enabled solution is developed using open-source software. The system has query-based flood damage assessment modules with outputs in the form of spatial maps and statistical databases. System effectively facilitates the management of post-disaster activities caused due to floods, like displaying spatial maps of the area affected, inundated roads, etc., and maintains a steady flow of information at all levels with different access rights depending upon the criticality of the information. It is designed to facilitate users in managing information related to flooding during critical flood seasons and analyzing the extent of the damage.

Keywords: flood, modeling, HPC, FOSS

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Authors: Thohidul Islam, Md. Hamidul Haque, Robin Kumar Biswas

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Floods are one of the deadliest natural disasters which are very complex to model; however, machine learning is opening the door for more reliable and accurate flood prediction. In this research, a multilayer perceptron neural network (MLP) is developed to model the rainfall-water level relation, in a subtropical monsoon climatic region of the Bangladesh-India border. Our experiments show promising empirical results to forecast the water level for 1 day lead time. Our best performing MLP model achieves 98.7% coefficient of determination with lower model complexity which surpasses previously reported results on similar forecasting problems.

Keywords: flood forecasting, machine learning, multilayer perceptron network, regression

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Authors: Loonibha Manandhar, Rajendra Bhandari, Kumud Raj Kafle

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Nepal’s Terai region is a part of the Ganges river basin which is one of the most disaster-prone areas of the world, with recurrent monsoon flooding causing millions in damage and the death and displacement of hundreds of people and households every year. The vulnerability of human settlements to natural disasters such as floods is increasing, and mapping changes in land use practices and hydro-geological parameters is essential in developing resilient communities and strong disaster management policies. The objective of this study was to develop a flood hazard zonation map of Orai Khola watershed and map the decadal land use/land cover dynamics of the watershed. The watershed area was delineated using SRTM DEM, and LANDSAT images were classified into five land use classes (forest, grassland, sediment and bare land, settlement area and cropland, and water body) using pixel-based semi-automated supervised maximum likelihood classification. Decadal changes in each class were then quantified using spatial modelling. Flood hazard mapping was performed by assigning weights to factors slope, rainfall distribution, distance from the river and land use/land cover on the basis of their estimated influence in causing flood hazard and performing weighed overlay analysis to identify areas that are highly vulnerable. The forest and grassland coverage increased by 11.53 km² (3.8%) and 1.43 km² (0.47%) from 1996 to 2016. The sediment and bare land areas decreased by 12.45 km² (4.12%) from 1996 to 2016 whereas settlement and cropland areas showed a consistent increase to 14.22 km² (4.7%). Waterbody coverage also increased to 0.3 km² (0.09%) from 1996-2016. 1.27% (3.65 km²) of total watershed area was categorized into very low hazard zone, 20.94% (60.31 km²) area into low hazard zone, 37.59% (108.3 km²) area into moderate hazard zone, 29.25% (84.27 km²) area into high hazard zone and 31 villages which comprised 10.95% (31.55 km²) were categorized into high hazard zone area.

Keywords: flood hazard, land use/land cover, Orai river, supervised maximum likelihood classification, weighed overlay analysis

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Authors: Gayathri Pramod, Sheeja K. P.

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Urban flooding has been seen rising in cities for the past few years. This rise in urban flooding is the result of increasing urbanization and increasing climate change. A resilient city design focuses on 'living with water'. This means that the city is capable of accommodating the floodwaters without having to risk any loss of lives or properties. The resilient city design incorporates green infrastructure, river edge treatment, open space design, etc. to form a city that functions as a whole for resilience. Sponge urbanism is a recent method for building resilient cities and is founded by China in 2014. Sponge urbanism is the apt method for resilience building for a tropical town like Aluva of Kerala. Aluva is a tropical town that experiences rainfall of about 783 mm per month during the rainy season. Aluva is an urbanized town which faces the risk of urban flooding and riverine every year due to the presence of Periyar River in the town. Impervious surfaces and hard construction and developments contribute towards flood risk by posing as interference for a natural flow and natural filtration of water into the ground. This type of development is seen in Aluva also. Aluva is designed in this research as a town that have resilient strategies of sponge city and which focusses on natural methods of construction. The flood susceptibility of Aluva is taken into account to design the spaces for sponge urbanism and in turn, reduce the flood susceptibility for the town. Aluva is analyzed, and high-risk zones for development are identified through studies. These zones are designed to withstand the risk of flooding. Various catchment areas are identified according to the natural flow of water, and then these catchment areas are designed to act as a public open space and as detention ponds in case of heavy rainfall. Various development guidelines, according to land use, is also prescribed, which help in increasing the green cover of the town. Aluva is then designed to be a completely flood-adapted city or sponge city according to the guidelines and interventions.

Keywords: climate change, flooding, resilient city, sponge city, sponge urbanism, urbanization

Procedia PDF Downloads 123

Authors: Sanpachai Huvanandana, Settapong Malisuwan, Soparwan Tongyuak, Prust Pannachet, Anong Phoepueak, Navneet Madan

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Many regions of Thailand are prone to flooding due to tropical climate. A commonly increasing precipitation in this continent results in risk of flooding. Many efforts have been implemented such as drainage control system, multiple dams, and irrigation canals. In order to decide where the drainages, dams, and canal should be appropriately located, the flooding risk area should be determined. This paper is aimed to identify the appropriate features that can be used to classify the flooding risk area in Thailand. Several features have been analyzed and used to classify the area. Non-supervised clustering techniques have been used and the results have been compared with ten years average actual flooding area.

Keywords: flood area clustering, geographical information system, flood features

Procedia PDF Downloads 258