Search results for: fair and credible elections

Authors: JoVontae Butts

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A central and enduring theme in the study of American politics is political participation, which indicates the health of a democracy, citizen buy-in, and fair political representation. Though voting push factors have been thoroughly researched and are becoming better understood, the effect of those same push factors often varies for marginalized people. Black voters begun to cast votes at a steadily increasing rate following the 1996 election, gradually growing to its highest level in the 2012 presidential election, even surpassing white voter participation rates. The thirty-year growth period of Black voter engagement concluded in the 2016 election, with the number of participating Black voters stumbling by approximately 7% while other demographics remained roughly the same. Theories for the shift in Black voter behavior range from vote suppression to discouragement due to Barack Obama’s concluding tenure in office. Furthermore, Black voter engagement rebounded in the 2020 election, leaving turnout and race scholars to speculate even further, predicting that disapproval of Trump energized the Black voter bloc. Though there is much conjecture regarding the changes in Black voter behavior, there is truly little empirical evidence to vet those suppositions. This study engages and quantifies speculations for the changes in Black voter engagement in recent elections using 2016 and 2020 American National Election Studies Pilot Study data. Additionally, this study expands upon McGregor’s theory of political hypervigilance by exploring differences in political engagement for church-attending Black voters and those that do not.

Keywords: race, religion, evangelicalism, political engagement

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Authors: F. Agbele

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Elections are core democratic institutions. Consequently, voter participation during elections is paramount to democratic governance as it serves as a medium to legitimize authority and make the privileges of electoral democracy meaningful to citizens. To this effect, the topic of voter mobilization and subsequent turnout level have been largely studied in advanced democracies. In young and consolidating democracies, the debate has, however, revolves around the huge reliance on ethnic and regional appeals. According to the Author’s knowledge, studies on electoral mobilization especially within the African context have argued the use of ethnic linkages by political parties to mobilize voters during elections. Literature has however not differentiated between the level of democratic dispensation among African countries and the use of ethnic linkages. The question, however, is whether the state of the country’s democracy determines the strategies employed by political parties to induce voter participation. In other words, do parties simply play ethno-regional cards as strongly suggested by literature or will consider an arrayed of strategies to mobilize voters? Additionally, studies have not differentiated the impact of mobilization strategy within a country, i.e. between high to low turnout areas. They have also not distinguished between strategies employed by an incumbent or an opposition party. This paper, therefore, is a comparative analysis of voter mobilization in Ghana. It uses original survey and interview data from three constituencies in Ghana: Nanton, Assin North, and Ellembelle, which are typical cases of high, average and low turnout areas, respectively. The data were concurrently collected during fieldworks conducted in November 2016 to February 2017, and again from July to August 2017. The study found that political parties within a consolidating democracy employ a blend of strategies to ensure turnout by both parties’ faithful and swing voters. The dominant strategies used depends on whether the party is an incumbent or in opposition. While an incumbent may depend more on personalistic and clientelistic strategies, parties in opposition will largely use programmatic strategies, which entails making many campaign promises. Additionally, opposition parties do use clientelistic tactics, but not on the same level as the incumbent. Similarly, within the context of this study, the use of ethnic linkage by political parties to mobilize voters has not been found to be as strong as suggested in the literature. Further, location was key in determining the strategy to use. In all, the consolidation process of a democratic country like Ghana means the change of mobilization strategies used by political parties, which entail a gradual shift from ethnic linkages to programmatic and other forms of non-programmatic strategies.

Keywords: comparative analysis, elections, mobilization strategies, voter turnout

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Authors: Sandra Rigot, Samira Demaria, Frederic Lemaire

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The starting point of this research is the contemporary capitalist paradox: there is a real scarcity of long term investment despite the boom of potential long term investors. This gap represents a major challenge: there are important needs for long term financing in developed and emerging countries in strategic sectors such as energy, transport infrastructure, information and communication networks. Moreover, the recent financial and sovereign debt crises, which have respectively reduced the ability of financial banking intermediaries and governments to provide long term financing, questions the identity of the actors able to provide long term financing, their methods of financing and the most appropriate forms of intermediation. The issue of long term financing is deemed to be very important by the EU Commission, as it issued a 2013 Green Paper (GP) on long-term financing of the EU economy. Among other topics, the paper discusses the impact of the recent regulatory reforms on long-term investment, both in terms of accounting (in particular fair value) and prudential standards for banks. For banks, prudential and accounting standards are also crucial. Fair value is indeed well adapted to the trading book in a short term view, but this method hardly suits for a medium and long term portfolio. Banks’ ability to finance the economy and long term projects depends on their ability to distribute credit and the way credit is valued (fair value or amortised cost) leads to different banking strategies. Furthermore, in the banking industry, accounting standards are directly connected to the prudential standards, as the regulatory requirements of Basel III use accounting figures with prudential filter to define the needs for capital and to compute regulatory ratios. The objective of these regulatory requirements is to prevent insolvency and financial instability. In the same time, they can represent regulatory constraints to long term investing. The balance between financial stability and the need to stimulate long term financing is a key question raised by the EU GP. Does fair value accounting contributes to short-termism in the investment behaviour? Should prudential rules be “appropriately calibrated” and “progressively implemented” not to prevent banks from providing long-term financing? These issues raised by the EU GP lead us to question to what extent the main regulatory requirements incite or constrain banks to finance long term projects. To that purpose, we study the 292 responses received by the EU Commission during the public consultation. We analyze these contributions focusing on particular questions related to fair value accounting and prudential norms. We conduct a two stage content analysis of the responses. First, we proceed to a qualitative coding to identify arguments of respondents and subsequently we run a quantitative coding in order to conduct statistical analyses. This paper provides a better understanding of the position that a large panel of European stakeholders have on these issues. Moreover, it adds to the debate on fair value accounting and its effects on prudential requirements for banks. This analysis allows us to identify some short term bias in banking regulation.

Keywords: basel 3, fair value, securitization, long term investment, banks, insurers

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Authors: Nweke Kingsley

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From the times of ancient Greece to modern times, democratic elections have been associated with a higher number of participants. Sequel to this, politicians globally and incumbent governments appear concerned with understanding the personality traits that may assure them of unflinching support by electorates. The study examined how openness to experience predicted electoral behaviour among senior non-teaching employees of Nnamdi Azikiwe University Awka. One hundred and thirty-three non-teaching employees who volunteered were randomly selected for the study. Two instruments were used for data collection: The Electoral Behaviour Scale, and the Openness to Experience dimension of the Personality Trait Inventory. A correlational design was adopted for the study, and the data generated were statistically analyzed using Pearson Product Moment and linear regression statistics. Results revealed that Openness to Experience positively and significantly predicted Electoral Behaviour among senior non-teaching employees of Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka. It was recommended that politicians and stakeholders hold town hall meetings and seminars to increase awareness of the electoral perception of electorates with the Openness to Experience trait as this will increase their support and yield successive results during elections.

Keywords: electoral-behaviour, employees, non-teaching, openness-to-experience

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Authors: Thomai Voulgari, Vasilis Vasilopoulos, Antonis Skamnakis

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The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of the European election campaigns (May 23-26, 2019) on Twitter achieving with artificial intelligence tools such as troll factories and automated inauthentic accounts. Our research focuses on the last European Parliamentary elections that took place between 23 and 26 May 2019 specifically in Italy, Greece, Germany and France. It is difficult to estimate how many Twitter users are actually bots (Echeverría, 2017). Detection for fake accounts is becoming even more complicated as AI bots are made more advanced. A political bot can be programmed to post comments on a Twitter account for a political candidate, target journalists with manipulated content or engage with politicians and artificially increase their impact and popularity. We analyze variables related to 1) the scope of activity of automated bots accounts and 2) degree of coherence and 3) degree of interaction taking into account different factors, such as the type of content of Twitter messages and their intentions, as well as the spreading to the general public. For this purpose, we collected large volumes of Twitter accounts of party leaders and MEP candidates between 10th of May and 26th of July based on content analysis of tweets based on hashtags while using an innovative network analysis tool known as MediaWatch.io (https://mediawatch.io/). According to our findings, one of the highest percentage (64.6%) of automated “bot” accounts during 2019 European election campaigns was in Greece. In general terms, political bots aim to proliferation of misinformation on social media. Targeting voters is a way that it can be achieved contribute to social media manipulation. We found that political parties and individual politicians create and promote purposeful content on Twitter using algorithmic tools. Based on this analysis, online political advertising play an important role to the process of spreading misinformation during elections campaigns. Overall, inauthentic accounts and social media algorithms are being used to manipulate political behavior and public opinion.

Keywords: artificial intelligence tools, human-bot interactions, political manipulation, social networking, troll factories

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Authors: Kevin Wongleedee

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This research paper was aimed to examine the reasons associated with hotel employees’ loyalty. This was a case study of 200 hotel employees in Bangkok, Thailand. The population of this study included all hotel employees who were working in Bangkok during January to March, 2014. Based on 200 respondents who answered the questionnaire, the data were complied by using SPSS. Mean and standard deviation were utilized in analyzing the data. The findings revealed that the average mean of importance was 4.40, with 0.7585 of standard deviation. Moreover, the mean average can be used to rank the level of importance from each factor as follows: 1) salary, service charge cut, and benefits, 2) career development and possible advancement, 3) freedom of working, thinking, and ability to use my initiative, 4) training opportunities, 5) social involvement and positive environment, 6) fair treatment in the workplace and fair evaluation of job performance, and 7) personal satisfaction, participation, and recognition.

Keywords: hotel employees, loyalty, reasons, case study

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Authors: Igbozuruike Chigozie Jude, Agwu Agwu Ejem

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This research examines the comparative influence of social media and TV campaigns on youth participation in the 2023 general elections in Nigeria. It interrogates the roles played by these two media in influencing youth participation, especially youths in Nigeria, while revealing the factors that influenced their exposure to the media and their participation. The study employed a survey design of quantitative research method to gather the data for this study. Data was collected through a questionnaire from 300 youths in Lagos. The sample size was selected using a multi-stage cluster sampling technique. Social media was the most media that was rated to have had the most impact on youth participation during the election period with its political campaigns. The elaborate likelihood model was used to underpin the study. The study concluded that social media campaigns played a major role in political participation among the youth during the 2023 general election. It revealed how social media contributed to the youths' participation and influenced them to engage in common forms of political participation. The main recommendation of this study is that since the majority of the youths are between the ages of 18 to 35, the media should work on coming up with more content around the year to sensitize them about their political rights and enlighten them socio-politically so that they grow up to become responsible citizens in the country both politically and socially.

Keywords: social media, general election, Nigeria, political apathy, youth

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Authors: Emmanuel Ayobami Adesiyan

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Political theorists have identified ethnicity as an obstacle to democratic stability in deeply divided societies. Nigeria belongs to the categories of problematic states labeled divided or deeply divided societies, as such post-independence politics is characterized by ethnicity with its ruinous effect on democratic governance and development. Institutional Engineering, the purposive manipulation of the electoral rule relating to party organization and the electoral formula has been established in comparative political studies as a policy measure for managing ethnicity in order to stabilize politics in divided societies. This paper examines the use of electoral engineering tools in managing ethnic politics in Nigeria’s Fourth Republic. The study is guided by rational institutional theory. Secondary data on electoral rules and disaggregated results of presidential elections were collected from archival documents. Data were subjected to content analysis. Institutional changes in electoral rules have promoted the development of inter-ethnic bargaining and compromises within the party system. Presidential Electoral Formula aided the emergence of national rather parochial parties. Electoral engineering tools moved Nigerian Politics from ethnic parochialism to inclusion and accommodation. These innovations should be strengthened to enhance democratic stability.

Keywords: Nigeria, presidential-elections, ethnic politics, institutional engineering

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Authors: Yan Liu

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The Gini coefficient indicates that the inequality of income distribution is rising in China. How individuals viewing the equality of current society is an important predicator of social turbulence. Perceptions of social justice may vary according to the social stratification. People usually use socioeconomic status to identify divisions between social stratifications. The objective of this study is to explore the potential influence of socioeconomic status on citizens’ perceptions of social justice in China. Socioeconomic status (SES) is usually reflected by either an SES indicator or a composite of three core dimensions: education, income and occupation. With data collected in the 2010 Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS), this study uses OLS regression analyses to examine the relationship between socioeconomic status (SES) and citizens’ perceptions of social justice. This study finds that most Chinese citizens believe that the current society is fair or more than fair. Socioeconomic status (SES) has a positive impact on citizens’ perceptions of social justice, which means individuals with higher indicator of socioeconomic status prefer to believe current society is fair. However, the three core dimensions which are used to measure socioeconomic status (SES) have different influences on perceptions of social justice: First, income helps enhance citizens’ sense of social justice. Second, education weakens citizens’ sense of social justice. Third, compared to the middle occupational status, people of both higher occupational status and lower occupational status have higher levels of perceptions of social justice. Though education creates a negative influence on perceptions of social justice, its effect is much weaker than that of income, which indicates income is a determining factor for enhancing people’s perceptions of social justice in China’s market society. Policy implications are discussed.

Keywords: education, income, occupation, perceptions of social justice, social stratification, socioeconomic status

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Authors: Teresa Naves, Katy Pallas, Carme Florit, Cristina Anton, Joan Collado, Diana Millan

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Although gender-fair language is relatively novel in Spain, in Catalonia, the Department of Education, as well as LGBT Associations, have been promoting several innovative programmes aimed at implementing gender-inclusive schools. These Rainbow School communities are ideal for looking at how these programmes affect the use of gender-fair language and the balanced representation of gender. The students' and teachers' perceptions and attitudes have been compared to those analysed in schools that have never implemented such programmes in primary or secondary education. Spanish and Catalan, unlike English, are gendered languages in which masculine forms have traditionally been used as the unmarked gender and have been claimed to be inclusive of all genders. While the Royal Spanish Academy (RAE) rejects the use of inclusive language and thus deems all variables of inclusion of double gender as unnecessary, the vast majority of universities are promoting not only inclusive language but also gender-inclusive curricula. Adopting gender-fair language policies and including gender perspective in the curricula is an innovative trend at university level and in primary and secondary school education. Inclusion in education is a basic human right and the foundation for a more just and equal society. Educators can facilitate the process of welcoming by ensuring handbooks, forms, and other communications are inclusive of all family structures and gender identities. Using gendered language such as 'girls and boys' can be alienating for gender non-conforming and gender diverse students; on the other hand, non-gendered words like 'students' are regarded as inclusive of all identities. The paper discusses the results of mixed method research (survey, interviews, and experiment) conducted in Rainbow and non-Rainbow schools in Alacant and Barcelona (Spain). The experiment aimed at checking the role of gender-fair language in learners' perception of gender balance. It was conducted in Spanish, Catalan, and English. Students aged 10 to 16 (N > 600) were asked to draw pictures of people using specific prompts. The prompts in Spanish and Catalan were written using the generic masculine, 'los presidentes' 'els presidents' (presidents); using double gendered language such as 'ninos y ninas', 'nens i nenes' (boys and girls); and using non-gendered words like 'alumnado' 'alumnat' (students). The prompts were subdivided into people in school contexts participants could identify with, such as students and teachers; occupations mostly associated with men, such as pilots and firefighters; and occupations associated with women, such as ballet dancers and nurses. As could be expected, the participants only drew approximately the same percentage of female and male characters when double-gendered language or non-gendered words such as 'students' or 'teachers' were used, regardless of the language used in the experiment. When they were asked to draw people using the so-called generic masculine in Spanish or Catalan, 'los estudiantes' 'els estudiants' (students), less than 35% of the drawings contained female characters. The differences between the results for Rainbow and Non-Rainbow schools will be discussed in the light of the innovative coeducation programmes and learners' perceptions on gender-fair language gathered in the surveys and interviews.

Keywords: gender-fair language, gender-inclusive schools, learners’ and teachers’ perceptions and attitudes, rainbow coeducation programmes

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Authors: Cezary Kulesza, Katarzyna Lapinska

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Regarding the nature of the notion of fair trial, one must see the source of the fair trial principle in the following acts of international law: art. 6 of the ECHR of 1950 and art.14 the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights of 1966, as well as in art. 45 of the Polish Constitution. However, the problem is that the above-mentioned acts essentially apply the principle of a fair trial to the main hearing and not to appeal proceedings. Therefore, the main thesis of the work is to answer the question whether the Polish model of appeal proceedings is fair. The paper presents the problem of fair appeal proceedings in Poland in comparative perspective. Thus, the authors discuss the basic features of English, German and Russian appeal systems. The matter is also analysed in the context of the last reforms of Polish criminal procedure, because since 2013 Polish parliament has significantly changed criminal procedure almost three times: by the Act of 27th September, 2013, the Act of 20th February, 2015 which came into effect on 1st July, 2015 and the Act of 11th March, 2016. The most astonishing is that these three amendments have been varying from each other – changing Polish criminal procedure to more adversarial one and then rejecting all measures just involved in previous acts. Additional intent of the Polish legislator was amending the forms of plea bargaining: conviction of the defendant without trial or voluntary submission to a penalty, which were supposed to become tools allowing accelerating the criminal process and, at the same time, implementing the principle of speedy procedure. The next part of the paper will discuss the matter, how the changes of plea bargaining and the main trial influenced the appellate procedure in Poland. The authors deal with the right to appeal against judgments issued in negotiated case-ending settlements in the light of Art. 2 of Protocol No. 7 to the ECHR and the Polish Constitution. The last part of the presentation will focus on the basic changes in the appeals against judgments issued after the main trial. This part of the paper also presents the results of examination of court files held in the Polish Appeal Courts in Białystok, Łódź and Warsaw. From these considerations it is concluded that the Polish CCP of 1997 in ordinary proceedings basically meets both standards: the standard adopted in Protocol No. 7 of the Convention and the Polish constitutional standard. But the examination of case files shows in particular the following phenomena: low effectiveness of appeals and growing stability of the challenged judgments of district courts, extensive duration of appeal proceedings and narrow scope of evidence proceedings before the appellate courts. On the other hand, limitations of the right to appeal against the judgments issued in consensual modes of criminal proceedings justify the fear that such final judgments may violate the principle of criminal accurate response or the principle of material truth.

Keywords: adversarial trial, appeal, ECHR, England, evidence, fair trial, Germany, Polish criminal procedure, reform, Russia

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Authors: Inga Žukovaitė

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This work aims to present postdoc research on remote criminal proceedings in court in order to streamline the proceedings and, at the same time, ensure the effective participation of the parties in criminal proceedings and the court's obligation to administer substantive and procedural justice. This study tests the hypothesis that remote criminal proceedings do not in themselves violate the fundamental principles of criminal procedure; however, their implementation must ensure the right of the parties to effective legal remedies and a fair trial and, only then, must address the issues of procedural economy, speed and flexibility/functionality of the application of technologies. In order to ensure that changes in the regulation of criminal proceedings are in line with fair trial standards, this research will provide answers to the questions of what conditions -first of all, legal and only then organisational- are required for remote criminal proceedings to ensure respect for the parties and enable their effective participation in public proceedings, to create conditions for quality legal defence and its accessibility, to give a correct impression to the party that they are heard and that the court is impartial and fair. It also seeks to present the results of empirical research in the courts of Lithuania that was made by using the interview method. The research will serve as a basis for developing a theoretical model for remote criminal proceedings in the EU to ensure a balance between the intention to have innovative, cost-effective, and flexible criminal proceedings and the positive obligation of the State to ensure the rights of participants in proceedings to just and fair criminal proceedings. Moreover, developments in criminal proceedings also keep changing the image of the court itself; therefore, in the paper will create preconditions for future research on the impact of remote criminal proceedings on the trust in courts. The study aims at laying down the fundamentals for theoretical models of a remote hearing in criminal proceedings and at making recommendations for the safeguarding of human rights, in particular the rights of the accused, in such proceedings. The following criteria are relevant for the remote form of criminal proceedings: the purpose of judicial instance, the legal position of participants in proceedings, their vulnerability, and the nature of required legal protection. The content of the study consists of: 1. Identification of the factual and legal prerequisites for a decision to organise the entire criminal proceedings by remote means or to carry out one or several procedural actions by remote means 2. After analysing the legal regulation and practice concerning the application of the elements of remote criminal proceedings, distinguish the main legal safeguards for protection of the rights of the accused to ensure: (a) the right of effective participation in a court hearing; (b) the right of confidential consultation with the defence counsel; (c) the right of participation in the examination of evidence, in particular material evidence, as well as the right to question witnesses; and (d) the right to a public trial.

Keywords: remote criminal proceedings, fair trial, right to defence, technology progress

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Authors: Umair Nadeem, Sidra Umair

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Political behavior of voters and democratic values have been observed an emerging phenomenon in recent years in Pakistan. Privatized TV news channels are taking one sided position on the political issues, corresponding with respective political parties. Since last decade, TV News Channels have undermined this monopoly. Elections 2013 were unique in Pakistan with reference to political behavior and democratic values. Partisan narratives and counter narratives have been witnessed on different TV channels, in last few years. These mediated events seem very important to study the political behavior and democratic values as the country is approaching towards elections 2018. This endeavor is an attempt to capture the framing of the parties, issues in the partisan media culture and framing effects on political behavior of voters. Data for this research come from two data set. Content analysis of selected representative talks shows broadcast on mainstream news channels provide an assessment of the framing while quantitative survey of the discussion program’s viewers from Lahore city provide an evidence of framing effects on political behavior on voters and on democratic values. Regression results help us to argue that the highly partisan shows are strong predictors of polarized views among the audience. Study also grasp the attention of scholars towards the implications of this phenomenon.

Keywords: democratic values, partisan media, polarized views, political behavior

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Authors: Sean Vincent

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Within the academic community, there is a consensus that political parties in established liberal democracies are facing a myriad of organisational challenges as a result of falling membership, weakening links to grass-roots support and rising voter apathy. During the same period of party decline and growing public disengagement political parties have become increasingly professionalised. The professionalisation of political parties owes much to changes in technology, with television becoming the dominant medium for political communication. In recent years, however, it has become clear that a new medium of communication is becoming utilised by political parties and candidates – New Media. New Media, a term hard to define but related to internet based communication, offers a potential revolution in political communication. It can be utilised by anyone with access to the internet and its most widely used platforms of communication such as Facebook and Twitter, are free to use. The advent of Web 2.0 has dramatically changed what can be done with the Internet. Websites now allow candidates at the constituency level to fundraise, organise and set out personalised policies. Social media allows them to communicate with supporters and potential voters practically cost-free. As such candidate dependency on the national party for resources and image now lies open to debate. Arguing that greater candidate independence may be a natural next step in light of the contemporary challenges faced by parties, this paper examines how New Media is being used by candidates at the constituency level to increase their personal vote. The paper will present findings from research carried out during two elections – the Japanese Lower House election of 2014 and the UK general election of 2015. During these elections a sample of candidates, totalling 150 candidates, from the three biggest parties in each country were selected and their new media output, specifically candidate websites, Twitter and Facebook output subjected to content analysis. The analysis examines how candidates are using new media to both become more functionally, through fundraising and volunteer mobilisation and politically, through the promotion of personal/local policies, independent from the national party. In order to validate the results of content analysis this paper will also present evidence from interviews carried out with 17 candidates that stood in the 2014 Japanese Lower House election or 2015 UK general election. With a combination of statistical analysis and interviews, several conclusions can be made about the use of New Media at constituency level. The findings show not just a clear difference in the way candidates from each country are using New Media but also differences within countries based upon the particular circumstances of each constituency. While it has not yet replaced traditional methods of fundraising and activist mobilisation, New Media is also becoming increasingly important in campaign organisation and the general consensus amongst candidates is that its importance will continue to grow along as politics in both countries becomes more diffuse.

Keywords: political campaigns, elections, new media, political communication

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Authors: Yaron Katz

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The investigation of immigrants' electoral choices has remained relatively uncharted territory despite the fact that numerous nations extend political rights to their expatriates. This paper centers its attention on the matter of public trust in democracy, with a focus on the intricacies of Israeli politics as a divided system. It delves into the potential implications of political and social transformations stemming from the involvement of expatriate voters in elections taking place in their country of origin. In doing so, the article endeavors to explore a pathway for resolving a persistent challenge facing the stability of the Israeli political landscape over the past decade: the difficulty in forming a resilient government that genuinely represents the majority of voters. An examination is conducted into the role played by a demographic with the capacity to exert significant influence on election outcomes, namely, individuals residing outside of Israel. The objective of this research is to delve into this subject, dissecting social developments and political prospects that may shape the country's trajectory in the coming decades. This inquiry is especially pertinent given the extensive engagement of migrants in Israeli politics and the link between Israelis living abroad and their home country. Nevertheless, the study's findings reveal that while former citizens exhibit extensive involvement in Israeli politics and are cognizant of the potential consequences of permitting them to participate in elections, they maintain steadfastly unfavorable views regarding the inclusion of Israelis living overseas in their home country's electoral processes.

Keywords: trust, globalization, policy, democracy

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Authors: Mohammad Nazri Mustafa, Sh Norliza Sy Salim, Pedram Hatami Abdullah

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Civil and structural assets normally have an average of more than 30 years of design life. Adding to this advantage, the assets are normally subjected to slow degradation process. Due to the fact that repair and strengthening work for these assets are normally not dependent on plant shut down, the maintenance and integrity restoration of these assets are mostly done based on “as required” and “run to failure” basis. However unlike other industries, the exposure in oil and gas environment is harsher as the result of corrosive soil and groundwater, chemical spill, frequent wetting and drying, icing and de-icing, steam and heat, etc. Due to this type of exposure and the increasing level of structural defects and rectification in line with the increasing age of plants, assets integrity assessment requires a more defined scope and procedures that needs to be based on risk and assets criticality. This leads to the establishment of risk based inspection and proactive maintenance procedure for civil and structural assets. To date there is hardly any procedure and guideline as far as integrity assessment and systematic inspection and maintenance of civil and structural assets (onshore) are concerned. Group Technical Solutions has developed a procedure and guideline that takes into consideration credible failure scenario, assets risk and criticality from process safety and structural engineering perspective, structural importance, modeling and analysis among others. Detailed inspection that includes destructive and non-destructive tests (DT & NDT) and structural monitoring is also being performed to quantify defects, assess severity and impact on integrity as well as identify the timeline for integrity restoration. Each defect and its credible failure scenario is assessed against the risk on people, environment, reputation and production loss. This technical paper is intended to share on the established procedure and guideline and their execution in oil & gas plants. In line with the overall roadmap, the procedure and guideline will form part of specialized solutions to increase production and to meet the “Operational Excellence” target while extending service life of civil and structural assets. As the result of implementation, the management of civil and structural assets is now more systematically done and the “fire-fighting” mode of maintenance is being gradually phased out and replaced by a proactive and preventive approach. This technical paper will also set the criteria and pose the challenge to the industry for innovative repair and strengthening methods for civil & structural assets in oil & gas environment, in line with safety, constructability and continuous modification and revamp of plant facilities to meet production demand.

Keywords: assets criticality, credible failure scenario, proactive and preventive maintenance, risk based inspection

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Authors: Elisam Magara

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Like any other property, Intellectual Property (IP) must be regarded, respected, and remunerated to address the historical, ethical, economical and informational needs of society. Article 26 of the Constitution of the Republic of Uganda 1995, the Copyright and Neighbouring Rights (CNR) Act 2006 and CNR Regulations 2010 guide copyright protection in Uganda. However, an unpredictable environment has negatively impact on certain author/intellectual freedoms; and the infringements on academic works that affect the economic rights of authors that limit authors from fully enjoying the benefits of authorship. Notwithstanding the different licensing systems and copyright protection avenues, educational institutions and custodians of copyright works (libraries, archives) have continued to advocate for open access to information resources, under the legal exceptions of fair use for educational purposes. Thus, a study was conducted in educational institutions, libraries and archives in Uganda to assess the state of copyright infringement in Uganda in an increased use of academic authored works. The study attempted to establish the nature and forms of Copyright Infringement, the circumstances for copyright infringement, assessed the opinions from the custodians on strategies for balancing copyright protection for economic and moral gains by authors and increased access to information for educational purposes and fair-use. Through a survey, using a self-administered questionnaire, interviews and physical visits, the study was conducted in higher education institutions, libraries and archives among the officers that manage and keep copyright works. It established that the uncontrolled reproduction of copyright works in educational institutions and information institutions, have contributed copyright infringement robbing authors of their potential economic earnings and limiting their academic innovativeness and creativity. The study also established that lack of consciousness and awareness on copyright issues by lecturers, universities and libraries has made copyright works in Universities highly susceptible to copyright infringement. Thus the increased access to materials without restrictions has resulted in copyright infringement among the educational institutions, libraries and archives. A strategic alliance by the collecting Society (Uganda Reproduction Rights Organisation (URRO), government, Universities and right holders organisations (UTANA) to work together and institute a programme to address copyright protection and access to information is pertinently required.

Keywords: access to information, academic Writing, copyright, copyright infringement, copyright protection, exemptions of fair use, intellectual property rights

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Authors: Avinash Kishore, Suman Chakrabarti

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In September 2013, the parliament of India enacted the National Food Security Act (NFSA) which entitles two-thirds of India’s population to five kilograms of rice, wheat or coarse cereals per person per month at one to three rupees per kilogram. Five states in India—Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Tamil Nadu, Odisha and West Bengal—had already implemented somewhat similar changes in the TPDS a few years earlier using their own budgetary resources. They made rice—coincidentally, all five states are predominantly rice-eating—available in fair price shops to a majority of their population at very low prices (less than Rs.3/kg). This paper tries to account for the changes in household consumption patterns associated with the change in TPDS policy in these states using data from household consumption surveys by the National Sample Survey Organization (NSSO). NSS data show improvement in the coverage of TPDS and average off-take of grains from fair price shops between 2004-05 and 2009-10 across all states of India. However, the increase in coverage and off-take was significantly higher in four out of these five states than in the rest of India. An average household in these states purchased three kilos more rice per month from fair price shops than its counterpart in non-treated states as a result of more generous TPDS policies backed by administrative reforms. The increase in consumption of PDS rice was the highest in Chhattisgarh, the poster state of PDS reforms. Households in Chhattisgarh used money saved on rice to spend more on pulses, edible oil, vegetables and sugar and other non-food items. We also find evidence that making TPDS more inclusive and more generous is not enough unless it is supported by administrative reforms to improve grain delivery and control diversion to open markets.

Keywords: public distribution system, social safety-net, national food security act, diet quality, Chhattisgarh

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Authors: Tuula Nygard

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This study contributes to the pedagogical discussion on how to promote adolescents’ multiliteracies with the emphasis on information seeking and evaluation skills in contemporary media environments. The study is conducted in the school environment utilizing perspectives of educational sciences and information studies to health communication and teaching. The research focus is on the teacher role as a trusted person, who guides students to choose and use credible information sources. Evaluating the credibility of information may often be challenging. Specifically, children and adolescents may find it difficult to know what to believe and who to trust, for instance, in health and well-being communication. Thus, advanced multiliteracy skills are needed. In the school environment, trust is based on the teacher’s subject content knowledge, but also the teacher’s character and caring. Teacher’s benevolence and approachability generate trustworthiness, which lays the foundation for good interaction with students and further, for the teacher’s pedagogical authority. The study explores teachers’ perceptions of their pedagogical authority and the role of a trustee. In addition, the study examines what kind of multiliteracy practices teachers utilize in their teaching. The data will be collected by interviewing secondary school health education teachers during Spring 2019. The analysis method is a nexus analysis, which is an ethnographic research orientation. Classroom interaction as the interviewed teachers see it is scrutinized through a nexus analysis lens in order to expound a social action, where people, places, discourses, and objects are intertwined. The crucial social actions in this study are information seeking and evaluation situations, where the teacher and the students together assess the credibility of the information sources. The study is based on the hypothesis that a trustee’s opinions of credible sources and guidance in information seeking and evaluation affect students’, that is, trustors’ choices. In the school context, the teacher’s own experiences and perceptions of health-related issues cannot be brushed aside. Furthermore, adolescents are used to utilize digital technology for day-to-day information seeking, but the chosen information sources are often not very high quality. In the school, teachers are inclined to recommend familiar sources, such as health education textbook and web pages of well-known health authorities. Students, in turn, rely on the teacher’s guidance of credible information sources without using their own judgment. In terms of students’ multiliteracy competences, information seeking and evaluation tasks in health education are excellent opportunities to practice and enhance these skills. To distinguish the right information from a wrong one is particularly important in health communication because experts by experience are easy to find and their opinions are convincing. This can be addressed by employing the ideas of multiliteracy in the school subject health education and in teacher education and training.

Keywords: multiliteracies, nexus analysis, pedagogical authority, trust

Procedia PDF Downloads 79

Authors: Shirajul Islam Khan, Muhammad Ashraful Alam Bhuiyan, Syeda Tania Begum

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Introduction: Acne vulgaris is one of the most common dermatologic conditions and affects the vast majority of people at some point during their lifetime, so effective treatment is of major importance. The failure of usual treatment modalities, teratogenic effects with some severe side effects, and resistance to P.Acne by Retinoides have been focusing on new therapeutic options for the treatment of acne. More recently, pulsed dye laser therapy has been reported to reduce acne lesion counts. The negligible morbidity of these treatment modalities and some other benefits of subsequent acne scar management lead this therapy more attractive. Objective: The objective of this study is to assess the efficacy and safety of pulsed dye laser therapy in the treatment of inflammatory acne vulgaris. Materials and Methods: A prospective clinical trial was done in the Department of Dermatology and Venereology, Combined Military Hospital (CMH), Dhaka, to find out the role of pulse dye laser in the treatment of inflammatory acne vulgaris. The study was carried out with 60 patients with mild to moderate acne vulgaris, and those were treated with pulsed dye laser therapy at baseline and after 4, 8, and 12 weeks. Results: Among 60 patients with inflammatory acne, 42(70%) were in the age group of less than 20 years, and 36(60%) were female. Regarding the number of inflammatory lesions, the baseline mean number (± SD) was 12.77 ± 4.01; after 4 weeks of treatment of inflammatory acne by pulsed dye laser was 7.80 ± 4.11; after 8 weeks of treatment, 6.10 ± 4.03 and after 12 weeks of treatment was 4.17 ± 4.02. After 4 weeks of treatment by pulse dye laser, the level of improvement was excellent at 3.3%, good at 10%, fair at 60%, and poor at 26.7%; after 8 weeks of treatment, excellent was 13.3%, good was 46.7%, the fair was 30% and poor 10% and after 12 weeks of treatment, excellent was 56.7%, good 13.3%, fair 23.3% and poor 6.7%. Regarding safety level, out of 60 patients of inflammatory acne vulgaris treated by pulsed dye laser, about 52(86.7%) patients did not observe any side effects. Conclusions: On the basis of the study results, it can be concluded that pulsed-dye laser is highly effective and well tolerated by patients in the treatment of inflammatory acne.

Keywords: pulsed-dye laser, inflammatory acne, acne vulgaris, retinoids

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Authors: Doreen Chemutai

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While women's parliamentary representation has increased over the years, most women contest the affirmative action seat (A.A). There is a lack of knowledge on why women prefer the affirmative seat vis- a- vis the open seat. This study argues that comparing women's path on the reserved and open seat to parliamentary representation enables us to pass judgment on why this trend continues. This paper provides a narrative analysis of women members of parliament's (MPs) trajectory in the open seat and Affirmative Action seat to parliamentary representation. Purposive sampling was used to select participants from the Northern Uganda districts of Kitgum, Pader, Oyam, Agago, and Gulu. The eight women MPs chosen for the study completed in-depth interviews exploring their qualifications, careers, and experiences before joining the political office, their party affiliation, and the kind of seat they currently occupy in the 10th parliament. Findings revealed similarities between women on the open and reserved to include; women generally irrespective of the seat they choose to contest for find it difficult to win elections because voters doubt women's effectiveness as leaders. All women as incumbents find it difficult to be re-elected because their evaluation is harsher than that for men. Findings also revealed that women representatives are motivated by their personal lived experiences, community work, educational leadership, and local leadership. The study establishes that the popularity of the party in a given geographical location and the opponents' quality will determine the success of the parliamentary candidate in question irrespective of whether one is contesting on the open or Affirmative seat. However, the study revealed differences between MPs' experiences in the quest for the parliamentary seat, females on the open seat are subjected to gender discrimination in elections by party leadership, stereotyped, and are victims of propaganda in the initial contesting stages. Women who win elections in the open seat have to be superior to their male opponents. In other circumstances where a woman emerges successful, she may be voted for due to other reasons beyond capability, such as physical appearance or sociability. On the other hand, MPs' revelations on affirmative action seats show that the political terrain is smoother despite larger constituencies. Findings show that women on the Affirmative Action seat do not move to the open seat because of the comfort associated with the seat and maintain consistency, since the constituencies doubt the motives of representatives who change from one seat to another. The study concludes that women MPs who contest on the open seat are likely to suffer structural barriers such as gender discrimination and political recruitment bias instead of women on the affirmative seat. This explains why the majority of women contest on the affirmative seat.

Keywords: affirmative action seats, open seats, parliamentary representation, pathways

Procedia PDF Downloads 128

Authors: Sumachaya Harnsukworapanich, Tetsuo Ichimori

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The apportionment method is used by many countries, to calculate the distribution of seats in political bodies. For example, this method is used in the United States (U.S.) to distribute house seats proportionally based on the population of the electoral district. Famous apportionment methods include the divisor methods called the Adams Method, Dean Method, Hill Method, Jefferson Method and Webster Method. Sometimes the results from the implementation of these divisor methods are unfair and include errors. Therefore, it is important to examine the optimization of this method by using a bias measurement to figure out precise and fair results. In this research we investigate the bias of divisor methods in the U.S. Houses of Representatives toward large and small states by applying the Stolarsky Mean Method. We compare the bias of the apportionment method by using two famous bias measurements: The Balinski and Young measurement and the Ernst measurement. Both measurements have a formula for large and small states. The Third measurement however, which was created by the researchers, did not factor in the element of large and small states into the formula. All three measurements are compared and the results show that our measurement produces similar results to the other two famous measurements.

Keywords: apportionment, bias, divisor, fair, measurement

Procedia PDF Downloads 335

Authors: Hanna Schübel, Ivo Wallimann-Helmer

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In order to reach the goal of the Paris Agreement to not overshoot 1.5°C of warming above pre-industrial levels, various countries including the UK and Switzerland have committed themselves to net zero emissions by 2050. The employment of negative emission technologies (NETs) is very likely going to be necessary for meeting these national objectives as well as other internationally agreed climate targets. NETs are methods of removing carbon from the atmosphere and are thus a means for addressing climate change. They range from afforestation to technological measures such as direct air capture and carbon storage (DACCS), where CO2 is captured from the air and stored underground. As all so-called geoengineering technologies, the development and deployment of NETs are often subject to moral hazard arguments. As these technologies could be perceived as an alternative to mitigation efforts, so the argument goes, they are potentially a dangerous distraction from the main target of mitigating emissions. We think that this is a dangerous argument to make as it may hinder the development of NETs which are an essential element of net zero emission targets. In this paper we argue that the moral hazard argument is only problematic if we do not reflect upon which levels of emissions are at stake in order to meet net zero emissions. In response to the moral hazard argument we develop an account of which levels of emissions in given societies should be mitigated and not be the target of NETs and which levels of emissions can legitimately be a target of NETs. For this purpose, we define four different levels of emissions: the current level of individual emissions, the level individuals emit in order to appear in public without shame, the level of a fair share of individual emissions in the global budget, and finally the baseline of net zero emissions. At each level of emissions there are different subjects to be assigned responsibilities if societies and/or individuals are committed to the target of net zero emissions. We argue that all emissions within one’s fair share do not demand individual mitigation efforts. The same holds with regard to individuals and the baseline level of emissions necessary to appear in public in their societies without shame. Individuals are only under duty to reduce their emissions if they exceed this baseline level. This is different for whole societies. Societies demanding more emissions to appear in public without shame than the individual fair share are under duty to foster emission reductions and are not legitimate to reduce by introducing NETs. NETs are legitimate for reducing emissions only below the level of fair shares and for reaching net zero emissions. Since access to NETs to achieve net zero emissions demands technology not affordable to individuals there are also no full individual responsibilities to achieve net zero emissions. This is mainly a responsibility of societies as a whole.

Keywords: climate change, mitigation, moral hazard, negative emission technologies, responsibility

Procedia PDF Downloads 94

Authors: Pablo Zoghbi-Manrique-de-Lara, Miguel A. Suárez-Acosta

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The goal of the present paper is to model two classic lines of research in which employees starred, organizational justice and citizenship behaviour (OCB), but that have never been studied together when targeting customers. The suggestion is made that a hotel’s fair treatment (in terms of distributive, procedural, and interactional justice) toward customers will be appreciated by the employees, who will reciprocate in kind by favouring the hotel with increased customer-oriented behaviours (COBs). Data were collected from 204 employees at eight upscale hotels in the Canary Islands (Spain). Unlike in the case of perceptions of distributive justice, results of structural equation modelling demonstrate that employees substantively react to interactional and procedural justice toward guests by engaging in customer-oriented behaviours (COBs). The findings offer new reasons why employees decide to engage in COBs, and they highlight potentially beneficial effects of fair treatment toward guests bring to hospitality through promoting COBs.

Keywords: hotel guests’ (mis) treatment, customer-oriented behaviours, employee citizenship, organizational justice, third-party observers, third-party intervention

Procedia PDF Downloads 233

Authors: Aleksandra Dragojlov

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Since the election of Aleksandar Vučić and the Progressives, Serbia has witnessed a slow decline in media freedom, which has been worse than in the 1990s. Although the government adopted a package of three laws in August 2014 to bring the media landscape up to European standards, the implementation of the laws has been limited and marginal, with the progressives engaging in fake compliance. The adoption of the new media strategy for 2020-2025 in 2020 has not led to genuine domestic reform and compliance with EU conditionality. In fact, the EU Commission and journalists’ associations in Serbia have criticised the decline in Serbia’s media freedom citing continued attacks on journalists and indirect political and economic control through advertising and project co-financing, which continue to be features of the Serbian media landscape. In the absence of clear and credible EU conditionality, the decline of media freedom is in the eye of the beholder, where the gap between public engagements with Serbian politicians and the critical stance of progress reports regarding the degradation of the media have enabled Serbian elites to exploit this ambiguity to continue their strategy of fake compliance vis-a-vis rule of law. This study used a mixed methods approach combining both primary and secondary sources with those semi-structured interviews via Zoom, email, and in person with EU and Serbian officials and journalists. Our findings add to the studies where the lack of clear and credible conditionality has allowed Serbia politicians to exploit them in a manner that would suit their own interests, finding new means to retain their control over the media. We argued and concluded that it is this discrepancy between public engagements with Serbia and the progress reports in the area of freedom of expression that has not led to genuine domestic media reforms in Serbia and instead allowed Serbian elites to engage in a strategy of fake and even non-compliance towards media freedom conditionality.

Keywords: media freedom, EU conditionality, Serbia, fake compliance, EU integration, Chapter 23, justice and fundamental rights

Procedia PDF Downloads 59

Authors: Shayan Mohajer Hamidi

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Federated Learning (FL) has emerged as a promising paradigm for training machine learning models on distributed data without the need for centralized data aggregation. In the realm of wireless communications, FL has the potential to leverage the vast amounts of data generated by wireless devices to improve model performance and enable intelligent applications. However, the fairness aspect of FL in wireless communications remains largely unexplored. This abstract presents an idea for fair federated learning in wireless communications, addressing the challenges of imbalanced data distribution, privacy preservation, and resource allocation. Firstly, the proposed approach aims to tackle the issue of imbalanced data distribution in wireless networks. In typical FL scenarios, the distribution of data across wireless devices can be highly skewed, resulting in unfair model updates. To address this, we propose a weighted aggregation strategy that assigns higher importance to devices with fewer samples during the aggregation process. By incorporating fairness-aware weighting mechanisms, the proposed approach ensures that each participating device's contribution is proportional to its data distribution, thereby mitigating the impact of data imbalance on model performance. Secondly, privacy preservation is a critical concern in federated learning, especially in wireless communications where sensitive user data is involved. The proposed approach incorporates privacy-enhancing techniques, such as differential privacy, to protect user privacy during the model training process. By adding carefully calibrated noise to the gradient updates, the proposed approach ensures that the privacy of individual devices is preserved without compromising the overall model accuracy. Moreover, the approach considers the heterogeneity of devices in terms of computational capabilities and energy constraints, allowing devices to adaptively adjust the level of privacy preservation to strike a balance between privacy and utility. Thirdly, efficient resource allocation is crucial for federated learning in wireless communications, as devices operate under limited bandwidth, energy, and computational resources. The proposed approach leverages optimization techniques to allocate resources effectively among the participating devices, considering factors such as data quality, network conditions, and device capabilities. By intelligently distributing the computational load, communication bandwidth, and energy consumption, the proposed approach minimizes resource wastage and ensures a fair and efficient FL process in wireless networks. To evaluate the performance of the proposed fair federated learning approach, extensive simulations and experiments will be conducted. The experiments will involve a diverse set of wireless devices, ranging from smartphones to Internet of Things (IoT) devices, operating in various scenarios with different data distributions and network conditions. The evaluation metrics will include model accuracy, fairness measures, privacy preservation, and resource utilization. The expected outcomes of this research include improved model performance, fair allocation of resources, enhanced privacy preservation, and a better understanding of the challenges and solutions for fair federated learning in wireless communications. The proposed approach has the potential to revolutionize wireless communication systems by enabling intelligent applications while addressing fairness concerns and preserving user privacy.

Keywords: federated learning, wireless communications, fairness, imbalanced data, privacy preservation, resource allocation, differential privacy, optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 45

Authors: Tunde Ope-Davies

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Transmediality and platformization as online content-sharing protocols have continued to accentuate the growing impact of the unprecedented digital revolution across the world. The rapid transformation across all sectors as a result of this revolution has continued to spotlight the increasing importance of new media technologies in redefining and reshaping the rhythm and dynamics of our private and public discursive practices. Equally, social and political activities are being impacted daily through the creation and transmission of political discourse content through multi-channel platforms such as mobile telephone communication, social media networks and the internet. It has been observed that digital platforms have become central to the production, processing, and distribution of multimodal social data and cultural content. The platformization paradigm thus underpins our understanding of how digital platforms enhance the production and heterogenous distribution of media and cultural content through these platforms and how this process facilitates socioeconomic and political activities. The use of multiple digital platforms to share and transmit political discourse material synchronously and asynchronously has gained some exciting momentum in the last few years. Nigeria’s 2023 general elections amplified the usage of social media and other online platforms as tools for electioneering campaigns, socio-political mobilizations and civic engagement. The study, therefore, focuses on transmedia and platformed political discourse as a new strategy to promote political candidates and their manifesto in order to mobilize support and woo voters. This innovative transmedia digital discourse model involves a constellation of online texts and images transmitted through different online platforms almost simultaneously. The data for the study was extracted from the 2023 general elections campaigns in Nigeria between January- March 2023 through media monitoring, manual download and the use of software to harvest the online electioneering campaign material. I adopted a discursive-analytic qualitative technique with toolkits drawn from a computer-mediated multimodal discourse paradigm. The study maps the progressive development of digital political discourse in this young democracy. The findings also demonstrate the inevitable transformation of modern democratic practice through platform-dependent and transmedia political discourse. Political actors and media practitioners now deploy layers of social media network platforms to convey messages and mobilize supporters in order to aggregate and maximize the impact of their media campaign projects and audience reach.

Keywords: social media, digital humanities, political discourse, platformized discourse, multimodal discourse

Procedia PDF Downloads 53

Authors: Romina Beqiri

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In the context of the prosecution of those responsible for the commission of the most hideous crimes and the fight against impunity, a fundamental role is played by witnesses of the crimes who contribute to ascertaining the ‘procedural truth’. This article examines recent decisions and legislation of the Hague-based International Criminal Court in terms of the endangerment of the integrity of the criminal proceedings in consequence of witness tampering. The analysis focuses on the new developments in the courtroom and the academia, in particular, on the first-ever sentence confirming the charges of corruptly influencing witnesses, interpretation of presenting false evidence and giving false testimony when under an obligation to tell the truth. Confronted with recent tampering with witnesses and their credibility at stake in the ongoing cases, the research explores different Court’s decisions and scholars’ legal disputes concerning the deterrence approach to punish the authors of offences against the administration of justice when committed intentionally. Therefore, the analysis concludes that the Court cannot tolerate any witness false testimony and should enhance consistency and severity of sanctions for the sake of fair trial and end impunity.

Keywords: International Criminal Court, administration of justice, credibility of witness, fair trial, false testimony, witness tampering

Procedia PDF Downloads 147

Authors: Necati Içer

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Crop-hail insurance plays a vital role in managing risks and reducing the financial consequences of hail damage on crop production. Predicting insurance premium rates with short-term data is a major difficulty in numerous nations because of the unique characteristics of hailstorms. This study aims to suggest a feasible approach for establishing equitable premium rates in crop-hail insurance for nations with short-term insurance data. The primary goal of the rate-making process is to determine premium rates for high and zero loss costs of villages and enhance their credibility. To do this, a technique was created using the author's practical knowledge of crop-hail insurance. With this approach, the rate-making method was developed using a range of temporal and spatial factor combinations with both hypothetical and real data, including extreme cases. This article aims to show how to incorporate the temporal and spatial elements into determining fair premium rates using short-term insurance data. The article ends with a suggestion on the ultimate premium rates for insurance contracts.

Keywords: crop-hail insurance, premium rate, short-term insurance data, spatial and temporal parameters

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Authors: Jiemiao Chen, Shuoxun Xu

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The main goal of our research is to apply the Vine copula measuring dependency between price, temperature, and precipitation indices to calculate a fair crop insurance premium. This research is focused on Worth, Iowa, United States, over the period from 2000 to 2020, where the farmers are dependent on precipitation and average temperature during the growth period of corn. Our proposed insurance considers both the natural risk and the price risk in agricultural production. We first estimate the distributions of crops using parametric methods based on Goodness of Fit tests, and then Vine Copula is applied to model dependence between yield price, crop yield, and weather indices. Once the vine structure and its parameters are determined based on AIC/BIC criteria and forecasting price and yield are obtained from the ARIMA model, we calculate this crop insurance premium using the simulation data generated from the vine copula by the Monte Carlo Simulation method. It is shown that, compared with traditional crop insurance, our proposed insurance is more fair and thus less costly for the farmers and government.

Keywords: vine copula, weather index, crop insurance premium, insurance risk management, Monte Carlo simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 170