Search results for: failure base rates
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 6906

Search results for: failure base rates

6666 Comparison of Wind Fragility for Window System in the Simplified 10 and 15-Story Building Considering Exposure Category

Authors: Viriyavudh Sim, WooYoung Jung

Abstract:

Window system in high rise building is occasionally subjected to an excessive wind intensity, particularly during typhoon. The failure of window system did not affect overall safety of structural performance; however, it could endanger the safety of the residents. In this paper, comparison of fragility curves for window system of two residential buildings was studied. The probability of failure for individual window was determined with Monte Carlo Simulation method. Then, lognormal cumulative distribution function was used to represent the fragility. The results showed that windows located on the edge of leeward wall were more susceptible to wind load and the probability of failure for each window panel increased at higher floors.

Keywords: wind fragility, window system, high rise building, wind disaster

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6665 Spectrum of Causative Pathogens and Resistance Rates to Antibacterial Agents in Bacterial Prostatitis

Authors: kamran Bhatti

Abstract:

Objective: To evaluate spectrum and resistance rates to antibacterial agents in causative pathogens of bacterial prostatitis in patients from Southern Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. Materials: 1027 isolates from cultures of urine or expressed prostatic secretion, post-massage urine or seminal fluid, or urethral samples were considered. Results: Escherichia coli (32%) and Enterococcus spp. (21%) were the most common isolates. Other Gram-negative, Gram-positive, and atypical pathogens accounted for 22%, 20%, and 5%, respectively. Resistance was <15% for piperacillin/tazobactam and carbapenems (both Gram-negative and -positive pathogens); <5% for glycopeptides against Gram-positive; 7%, 14%, and 20% for aminoglycosides, fosfomycin, and macrolides against Gram-negative pathogens, respectively; 10% for amoxicillin/clavulanate against Gram-positive pathogens; <20% for cephalosporins and fluoroquinolones against to Gram-negative pathogens (higher against Gram-positive pathogens); none for macrolides against atypical pathogens, but 20% and 27% for fluoroquinolones and tetracyclines. In West Africa, the resistance rates were generally higher, although the highest rates for ampicillin, cephalosporins, and fluoroquinolones were observed in the Gulf area. Lower rates were observed in Southeastern Europe. Conclusions: Resistance to antibiotics is a health problem requiring local health authorities to combat this phenomenon. Knowledge of the spectrum of pathogens and antibiotic resistance rates is crucial to assess local guidelines for the treatment of prostatitis.

Keywords: enterobacteriacae; escherichia coli, gram-positive pathogens, antibiotic, bacterial prostatitis, resistance

Procedia PDF Downloads 37
6664 Foreign Exchange Volatilities and Stock Prices: Evidence from London Stock Exchange

Authors: Mahdi Karazmodeh, Pooyan Jafari

Abstract:

One of the most interesting topics in finance is the relation between stock prices and exchange rates. During the past decades different stock markets in different countries have been the subject of study for researches. The volatilities of exchange rates and its effect on stock prices during the past 10 years have continued to be an attractive research topic. The subject of this study is one of the most important indices, FTSE 100. 20 firms with the highest market capitalization in 5 different industries are chosen. Firms are included in oil and gas, mining, pharmaceuticals, banking and food related industries. 5 different criteria have been introduced to evaluate the relationship between stock markets and exchange rates. Return of market portfolio, returns on broad index of Sterling are also introduced. The results state that not all firms are sensitive to changes in exchange rates. Furthermore, a Granger Causality test has been run to observe the route of changes between stock prices and foreign exchange rates. The results are consistent, to some level, with the previous studies. However, since the number of firms is not large, it is suggested that a larger number of firms being used to achieve the best results. However results showed that not all firms are affected by foreign exchange rates changes. After testing Granger Causality, this study found out that in some industries (oil and gas, pharmaceuticals), changes in foreign exchange rate will not cause any changes in stock prices (or vice versa), however, in banking sector the situation was different. This industry showed more reaction to these changes. The results are similar to the ones with Richards and Noel, where a variety of firms in different industries were evaluated.

Keywords: stock prices, foreign exchange rate, exchange rate exposure, Granger Causality

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6663 Application of Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) on the Virtual Process Hazard Analysis of Acetone Production Process

Authors: Princes Ann E. Prieto, Denise F. Alpuerto, John Rafael C. Unlayao, Neil Concibido, Monet Concepcion Maguyon-Detras

Abstract:

Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) has been used in the virtual Process Hazard Analysis (PHA) of the Acetone production process through the dehydrogenation of isopropyl alcohol, for which very limited process risk assessment has been published. In this study, the potential failure modes, effects, and possible causes of selected major equipment in the process were identified. During the virtual FMEA mock sessions, the risks in the process were evaluated and recommendations to reduce and/or mitigate the process risks were formulated. The risk was estimated using the calculated risk priority number (RPN) and was classified into four (4) levels according to their effects on acetone production. Results of this study were also used to rank the criticality of equipment in the process based on the calculated criticality rating (CR). Bow tie diagrams were also created for the critical hazard scenarios identified in the study.

Keywords: chemical process safety, failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA), process hazard analysis (PHA), process safety management (PSM)

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6662 Application of IED to Condition Based Maintenance of Medium Voltage GCB/VCB

Authors: Ming-Ta Yang, Jyh-Cherng Gu, Chun-Wei Huang, Jin-Lung Guan

Abstract:

Time base maintenance (TBM) is conventionally applied by the power utilities to maintain circuit breakers (CBs), transformers, bus bars and cables, which may result in under maintenance or over maintenance. As information and communication technology (ICT) industry develops, the maintenance policies of many power utilities have gradually changed from TBM to condition base maintenance (CBM) to improve system operating efficiency, operation cost and power supply reliability. This paper discusses the feasibility of using intelligent electronic devices (IEDs) to construct a CB CBM management platform. CBs in power substations can be monitored using IEDs with additional logic configuration and wire connections. The CB monitoring data can be sent through intranet to a control center and be analyzed and integrated by the Elipse Power Studio software. Finally, a human-machine interface (HMI) of supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) system can be designed to construct a CBM management platform to provide maintenance decision information for the maintenance personnel, management personnel and CB manufacturers.

Keywords: circuit breaker, condition base maintenance, intelligent electronic device, time base maintenance, SCADA

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6661 Laboratory Findings as Predictors of St2 and NT-Probnp Elevations in Heart Failure Clinic, National Cardiovascular Centre Harapan Kita, Indonesia

Authors: B. B. Siswanto, A. Halimi, K. M. H. J. Tandayu, C. Abdillah, F. Nanda , E. Chandra

Abstract:

Nowadays, modern cardiac biomarkers, such as ST2 and NT-proBNP, have important roles in predicting morbidity and mortality in heart failure patients. Abnormalities of serum electrolytes, sepsis or infection, and deteriorating renal function will worsen the conditions of patients with heart failure. It is intriguing to know whether cardiac biomarkers elevations are affected by laboratory findings in heart failure patients. We recruited 65 patients from the heart failure clinic in NCVC Harapan Kita in 2014-2015. All of them have consented for laboratory examination, including cardiac biomarkers. The findings were recorded in our Research and Development Centre and analyzed using linear regression to find whether there is a relationship between laboratory findings (sodium, potassium, creatinine, and leukocytes) and ST2 or NT-proBNP. From 65 patients, 26.9% of them are female, and 73.1% are male, 69.4% patients classified as NYHA I-II and 31.6% as NYHA III-IV. The mean age is 55.7+11.4 years old; mean sodium level is 136.1+6.5 mmol/l; mean potassium level is 4.7+1.9 mmol/l; mean leukocyte count is 9184.7+3622.4 /ul; mean creatinine level is 1.2+0.5 mg/dl. From linear regression logistics, the relationship between NT-proBNP and sodium level (p<0.001), as well as leukocyte count (p=0.002) are significant, while NT-proBNP and potassium level (p=0.05), as well as creatinine level (p=0.534) are not significant. The relationship between ST2 and sodium level (p=0.501), potassium level (p=0.76), leukocyte level (p=0.897), and creatinine level (p=0.817) are not significant. To conclude, laboratory findings are more sensitive in predicting NT-proBNP elevation than ST2 elevation. Larger studies are needed to prove that NT-proBNP correlation with laboratory findings is more superior than ST2.

Keywords: heart failure, laboratory, NT-proBNP, ST2

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6660 Dissipation Capacity of Steel Building with Fiction Pendulum Base-Isolation System

Authors: A. Ras, I. Nait Zerrad, N. Benmouna, N. Boumechra

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Use of base isolators in the seismic design of structures has attracted considerable attention in recent years. The major concern in the design of these structures is to have enough lateral stability to resist wind and seismic forces. There are different systems providing such isolation, among them there are friction- pendulum base isolation systems (FPS) which are rather widely applied nowadays involving to both affordable cost and high fundamental periods. These devices are characterised by a stiff resistance against wind loads and to be flexible to the seismic tremors, which make them suitable for different situations. In this paper, a 3D numerical investigation is done considering the seismic response of a twelve-storey steel building retrofitted with a FPS. Fast nonlinear time history analysis (FNA) of Boumerdes earthquake (Algeria, May 2003) is considered for analysis and carried out using SAP2000 software. Comparisons between fixed base, bearing base isolated and braced structures are shown in a tabulated and graphical format. The results of the various alternatives studies to compare the structural response without and with this device of dissipation energy thus obtained were discussed and the conclusions showed the interesting potential of the FPS isolator. This system may to improve the dissipative capacities of the structure without increasing its rigidity in a significant way which contributes to optimize the quantity of steel necessary for its general stability.

Keywords: energy dissipation, friction-pendulum system, nonlinear analysis, steel structure

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6659 Numerical Simulation on Deformation Behaviour of Additively Manufactured AlSi10Mg Alloy

Authors: Racholsan Raj Nirmal, B. S. V. Patnaik, R. Jayaganthan

Abstract:

The deformation behaviour of additively manufactured AlSi10Mg alloy under low strains, high strain rates and elevated temperature conditions is essential to analyse and predict its response against dynamic loading such as impact and thermomechanical fatigue. The constitutive relation of Johnson-Cook is used to capture the strain rate sensitivity and thermal softening effect in AlSi10Mg alloy. Johnson-Cook failure model is widely used for exploring damage mechanics and predicting the fracture in many materials. In this present work, Johnson-Cook material and damage model parameters for additively manufactured AlSi10Mg alloy have been determined numerically from four types of uniaxial tensile test. Three different uniaxial tensile tests with dynamic strain rates (0.1, 1, 10, 50, and 100 s-1) and elevated temperature tensile test with three different temperature conditions (450 K, 500 K and 550 K) were performed on 3D printed AlSi10Mg alloy in ABAQUS/Explicit. Hexahedral elements are used to discretize tensile specimens and fracture energy value of 43.6 kN/m was used for damage initiation. Levenberg Marquardt optimization method was used for the evaluation of Johnson-Cook model parameters. It was observed that additively manufactured AlSi10Mg alloy has shown relatively higher strain rate sensitivity and lower thermal stability as compared to the other Al alloys.

Keywords: ABAQUS, additive manufacturing, AlSi10Mg, Johnson-Cook model

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6658 Characteristics and Mechanical Properties of Bypass-Current MIG Welding-Brazed Dissimilar Al/Ti Joints

Authors: Bintao Wu, Xiangfang Xu, Yugang Miao,Duanfeng Han

Abstract:

Joining of 1 mm thick aluminum 6061 to titanium TC4 was conducted using Bypass-current MIG welding-brazed, and stable welding process and good bead appearance were obtained. The Joint profile and microstructure of Ti/Al joints were observed by optical microscopy and SEM and then the structure of the interfacial reaction layers were analyzed in details. It was found that the intermetallic compound layer at the interfacial top is in the form of columnar crystal, which is in short and dense state. A mount of AlTi were observed at the interfacial layer near the Ti base metal while intermetallic compound like Al3Ti、TiSi3 were formed near the Al base metal, and the Al11Ti5 transition phase was found in the center of the interface layer due to the uneven distribution inside the weld pool during the welding process. Tensile test results show that the average tensile strength of joints is up to 182.6 MPa, which reaches about 97.6% of aluminum base metal. Fracture is prone to occur in the base metal with a certain amount of necking.

Keywords: bypass-current MIG welding-brazed, Al alloy, Ti alloy, joint characteristics, mechanical properties

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6657 Calculating Shear Strength Parameter from Simple Shear Apparatus

Authors: G. Nitesh

Abstract:

The shear strength of soils is a crucial parameter instability analysis. Therefore, it is important to determine reliable values for the accuracy of stability analysis. Direct shear tests are mostly performed to determine the shear strength of cohesionless soils. The major limitation of the direct shear test is that the failure takes place through the pre-defined failure plane but the failure is not along pre-defined plane and is along the weakest plane in actual shearing mechanism that goes on in the field. This leads to overestimating the strength parameter; hence, a new apparatus called simple shear is developed and used in this study to determine the shear strength parameter that simulates the field conditions.

Keywords: direct shear, simple shear, angle of shear resistance, cohesionless soils

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6656 Effects of Damper Locations and Base Isolators on Seismic Response of a Building Frame

Authors: Azin Shakibabarough, Mojtaba Valinejadshoubi, Ashutosh Bagchi

Abstract:

Structural vibration means repetitive motion that causes fatigue and reduction of the performance of a structure. An earthquake may release high amount of energy that can have adverse effect on all components of a structure. Therefore, decreasing of vibration or maintaining performance of structures such as bridges, dams, roads and buildings is important for life safety and reducing economic loss. When earthquake or any vibration happens, investigation on parts of a structure which sustain the seismic loads is mandatory to provide a safe condition for the occupants. One of the solutions for reducing the earthquake vibration in a structure is using of vibration control devices such as dampers and base isolators. The objective of this study is to investigate the optimal positions of friction dampers and base isolators for better seismic response of 2D frame. For this purpose, a two bay and six story frame with different distribution formats was modeled and some of their responses to earthquake such as inter-story drift, max joint displacement, max axial force and max bending moment were determined and compared using non-linear dynamic analysis.

Keywords: fast nonlinear analysis, friction damper, base isolator, seismic vibration control, seismic response

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6655 Reliability and Maintainability Optimization for Aircraft’s Repairable Components Based on Cost Modeling Approach

Authors: Adel A. Ghobbar

Abstract:

The airline industry is continuously challenging how to safely increase the service life of the aircraft with limited maintenance budgets. Operators are looking for the most qualified maintenance providers of aircraft components, offering the finest customer service. Component owner and maintenance provider is offering an Abacus agreement (Aircraft Component Leasing) to increase the efficiency and productivity of the customer service. To increase the customer service, the current focus on No Fault Found (NFF) units must change into the focus on Early Failure (EF) units. Since the effect of EF units has a significant impact on customer satisfaction, this needs to increase the reliability of EF units at minimal cost, which leads to the goal of this paper. By identifying the reliability of early failure (EF) units with regards to No Fault Found (NFF) units, in particular, the root cause analysis with an integrated cost analysis of EF units with the use of a failure mode analysis tool and a cost model, there will be a set of EF maintenance improvements. The data used for the investigation of the EF units will be obtained from the Pentagon system, an Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) system used by Fokker Services. The Pentagon system monitors components, which needs to be repaired from Fokker aircraft owners, Abacus exchange pool, and commercial customers. The data will be selected on several criteria’s: time span, failure rate, and cost driver. When the selected data has been acquired, the failure mode and root cause analysis of EF units are initiated. The failure analysis approach tool was implemented, resulting in the proposed failure solution of EF. This will lead to specific EF maintenance improvements, which can be set-up to decrease the EF units and, as a result of this, increasing the reliability. The investigated EFs, between the time period over ten years, showed to have a significant reliability impact of 32% on the total of 23339 unscheduled failures. Since the EFs encloses almost one-third of the entire population.

Keywords: supportability, no fault found, FMEA, early failure, availability, operational reliability, predictive model

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6654 Biogeography Based CO2 and Cost Optimization of RC Cantilever Retaining Walls

Authors: Ibrahim Aydogdu, Alper Akin

Abstract:

In this study, the development of minimizing the cost and the CO2 emission of the RC retaining wall design has been performed by Biogeography Based Optimization (BBO) algorithm. This has been achieved by developing computer programs utilizing BBO algorithm which minimize the cost and the CO2 emission of the RC retaining walls. Objective functions of the optimization problem are defined as the minimized cost, the CO2 emission and weighted aggregate of the cost and the CO2 functions of the RC retaining walls. In the formulation of the optimum design problem, the height and thickness of the stem, the length of the toe projection, the thickness of the stem at base level, the length and thickness of the base, the depth and thickness of the key, the distance from the toe to the key, the number and diameter of the reinforcement bars are treated as design variables. In the formulation of the optimization problem, flexural and shear strength constraints and minimum/maximum limitations for the reinforcement bar areas are derived from American Concrete Institute (ACI 318-14) design code. Moreover, the development length conditions for suitable detailing of reinforcement are treated as a constraint. The obtained optimum designs must satisfy the factor of safety for failure modes (overturning, sliding and bearing), strength, serviceability and other required limitations to attain practically acceptable shapes. To demonstrate the efficiency and robustness of the presented BBO algorithm, the optimum design example for retaining walls is presented and the results are compared to the previously obtained results available in the literature.

Keywords: bio geography, meta-heuristic search, optimization, retaining wall

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6653 Study of Mechanical Behavior of Unidirectional Composite Laminates According

Authors: Deliou Adel, Saadalah Younes, Belkaid Khmissi, Dehbi Meriem

Abstract:

Composite materials, in the most common sense of the term, are a set of synthetic materials designed and used mainly for structural applications; the mechanical function is dominant. The mechanical behaviors of the composite, as well as the degradation mechanisms leading to its rupture, depend on the nature of the constituents and on the architecture of the fiber preform. The profile is required because it guides the engineer in designing structures with precise properties in relation to the needs. This work is about studying the mechanical behavior of unidirectional composite laminates according to different failure criteria. Varying strength parameter values make it possible to compare the ultimate mechanical characteristics obtained by the criteria of Tsai-Hill, Fisher and maximum stress. The laminate is subjected to uniaxial tensile membrane forces. Estimates of their ultimate strengths and the plotting of the failure envelope constitute the principal axis of this study. Using the theory of maximum stress, we can determine the various modes of damage of the composite. The different components of the deformation are presented for different orientations of fibers.

Keywords: unidirectional kevlar/epoxy composite, failure criterion, membrane stress, deformations, failure envelope

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6652 The Justice of Resources Allocation for People with Disability Base on Activity and Participation Functioning: The Cross-Section Study of National Population

Authors: Chia-Feng Yen, Shyang-Woei Lin

Abstract:

Background: In Taiwan, people with disability can obtain national social welfare services after evaluation. All subsidies and services in- kind are pronounced in People with Disabilities Rights Protection Act. The new disability eligibility determination system base on ICF has carried out five years in Taiwan. There were no systematic outcomes to discuss the relationships between the evaluation results of activity and participation functioning (AP functioning) and ratification of social services for people with disability. The decision-making of welfare resources allocation is in local government, so the ratification could be affected by resource variations in every area (local governments). The purposes of this study are to compare the ratification rate between different areas (the equity of allocation), and to understand the ratification of social services for people with disability after needs assessment stage that can help to predict the resources allocation for local governments in the further. Methods: A cross-sectional study was used, and the data came from Disability Eligibility Determination System in Taiwan between 2013/11/04-2015/01/12. All samples were evaluated by FUNDES-adult version 7th and they all above 18 years old. The samples were collected face to face by physicians and AP evaluators. Result: In the needs assessment stage, the welfare ratification rates are significant differences between these local governments for the samples with the similar impairment and AP functioning.

Keywords: allocation, activity and participation, people with disability, justice

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6651 Capacity Loss of Urban Arterial Roads under the Influence of Bus Stop

Authors: Sai Chand, Ashish Dhamaniya, Satish Chandra

Abstract:

Curbside bus stops are provided on urban roads when sufficient land is not available to construct bus bays. The present study demonstrates the effect of curbside bus stops on midblock capacity of an urban arterial road. Data were collected on seven sections of 6-lane urban arterial roads in New Delhi. Three sections were selected without any side friction to estimate the base value of capacity. Remaining four sections were with curbside bus stop. Speed and volume data were collected in field and these data were used to estimate the capacity of a section. The average base midblock capacity of a 6–lane divided urban road was found to be 6314 PCU/hr which was further referred as base capacity. Effect of curbside bus stop on midblock capacity of urban road was evaluated by comparing the capacity of a section with curbside bus stop with that of the base capacity. Finally, a mathematical relation has been developed between bus frequency and capacity loss. Also a relation has been suggested between dwell time and capacity loss. The developed relations would be very useful for practising engineers to estimate capacity loss due to bus stop.

Keywords: bus frequency, bus stops, capacity loss, urban arterial

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6650 Forecasting Age-Specific Mortality Rates and Life Expectancy at Births for Malaysian Sub-Populations

Authors: Syazreen N. Shair, Saiful A. Ishak, Aida Y. Yusof, Azizah Murad

Abstract:

In this paper, we forecast age-specific Malaysian mortality rates and life expectancy at births by gender and ethnic groups including Malay, Chinese and Indian. Two mortality forecasting models are adopted the original Lee-Carter model and its recent modified version, the product ratio coherent model. While the first forecasts the mortality rates for each subpopulation independently, the latter accounts for the relationship between sub-populations. The evaluation of both models is performed using the out-of-sample forecast errors which are mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) for mortality rates and mean forecast errors (MFE) for life expectancy at births. The best model is then used to perform the long-term forecasts up to the year 2030, the year when Malaysia is expected to become an aged nation. Results suggest that in terms of overall accuracy, the product ratio model performs better than the original Lee-Carter model. The association of lower mortality group (Chinese) in the subpopulation model can improve the forecasts of high mortality groups (Malay and Indian).

Keywords: coherent forecasts, life expectancy at births, Lee-Carter model, product-ratio model, mortality rates

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6649 Copper (II) Complex of New Tetradentate Asymmetrical Schiff Base Ligand: Synthesis, Characterization, and Catecholase-Mimetic Activity

Authors: Cahit Demetgul, Sahin Bayraktar, Neslihan Beyazit

Abstract:

Metalloenzymes are enzyme proteins containing metal ions, which are directly bound to the protein or to enzyme-bound nonprotein components. One of the major metalloenzymes that play a key role in oxidation reactions is catechol oxidase, which shows catecholase activity i.e. oxidation of a broad range of catechols to quinones through the four-electron reduction of molecular oxygen to water. Studies on the model compounds mimicking the catecholase activity are very useful and promising for the development of new, more efficient bioinspired catalysts, for in vitro oxidation reactions. In this study, a new tetradentate asymmetrical Schiff-base and its Cu(II) complex were synthesized by condensation of 4-nitro-1,2-phenylenediamine with 6-formyl-7-hydroxy-5-methoxy-2-methylbenzopyran-4-one and by using an appropriate Cu(II) salt, respectively. The prepared compounds were characterized by elemental analysis, FT-IR, NMR, UV-Vis and magnetic susceptibility. The catecholase-mimicking activity of the new Schiff Base Cu(II) complex was performed for the oxidation of 3,5-di-tert-butylcatechol (3,5-DTBC) in methanol at 25 °C, where the electronic spectra were recorded at different time intervals. The yield of the quinone (3,5-DTBQ) was determined from the measured absorbance at 400 nm of the resulting solution. The compatibility of catalytic reaction with Michaelis-Menten kinetics was also investigated. In conclusion, we have found that our new Schiff Base Cu(II) complex presents a significant capacity to catalyze the oxidation reaction of the catechol to o-quinone.

Keywords: catecholase activity, Michaelis-Menten kinetics, Schiff base, transition metals

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6648 Experimental Investigation of the Failure Behavior of a Retaining Wall Constructed with Soil Bags

Authors: Kewei Fan, Sihong Liu, Yi Pik Cheng

Abstract:

This paper aims to analyse the failure behaviour of the retaining wall constructed with soil bags that are formed by filling river sand into woven bags (geosynthetics). Model tests were conducted to obtain the failure mode of the wall, and shear tests on two-layers and five-layers of soil bags were designed to investigate the mechanical characteristics of the interface of soil bags. The test results show that the slip surface in the soil bags-constructed retaining wall is ladder-like due to the inter-layer insertion of soil bags, and the wall above the ladder-like surface undergoes a rigid body translation. The insertion strengthens the shear strength of two-layer staggered-stacked soil bags. Meanwhile, it affects the shape of the slip surface of the five-layer staggered-stacked soil bags. Finally, the interlayer resisting friction of soil bags is found to be related to the shape of the slip surface.

Keywords: geosynthetics, retaining wall, soil bag, failure mode, interface, shear strength

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6647 A Spatial Approach to Model Mortality Rates

Authors: Yin-Yee Leong, Jack C. Yue, Hsin-Chung Wang

Abstract:

Human longevity has been experiencing its largest increase since the end of World War II, and modeling the mortality rates is therefore often the focus of many studies. Among all mortality models, the Lee–Carter model is the most popular approach since it is fairly easy to use and has good accuracy in predicting mortality rates (e.g., for Japan and the USA). However, empirical studies from several countries have shown that the age parameters of the Lee–Carter model are not constant in time. Many modifications of the Lee–Carter model have been proposed to deal with this problem, including adding an extra cohort effect and adding another period effect. In this study, we propose a spatial modification and use clusters to explain why the age parameters of the Lee–Carter model are not constant. In spatial analysis, clusters are areas with unusually high or low mortality rates than their neighbors, where the “location” of mortality rates is measured by age and time, that is, a 2-dimensional coordinate. We use a popular cluster detection method—Spatial scan statistics, a local statistical test based on the likelihood ratio test to evaluate where there are locations with mortality rates that cannot be described well by the Lee–Carter model. We first use computer simulation to demonstrate that the cluster effect is a possible source causing the problem of the age parameters not being constant. Next, we show that adding the cluster effect can solve the non-constant problem. We also apply the proposed approach to mortality data from Japan, France, the USA, and Taiwan. The empirical results show that our approach has better-fitting results and smaller mean absolute percentage errors than the Lee–Carter model.

Keywords: mortality improvement, Lee–Carter model, spatial statistics, cluster detection

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6646 Optimizing Oxidation Process Parameters of Al-Li Base Alloys Using Taguchi Method

Authors: Muna K. Abbass, Laith A. Mohammed, Muntaha K. Abbas

Abstract:

The oxidation of Al-Li base alloy containing small amounts of rare earth (RE) oxides such as 0.2 wt% Y2O3 and 0.2wt% Nd2O3 particles have been studied at temperatures: 400ºC, 500ºC and 550°C for 60hr in a dry air. Alloys used in this study were prepared by melting and casting in a permanent steel mould under controlled atmosphere. Identification of oxidation kinetics was carried out by using weight gain/surface area (∆W/A) measurements while scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and x-ray diffraction analysis were used for micro structural morphologies and phase identification of the oxide scales. It was observed that the oxidation kinetic for all studied alloys follows the parabolic law in most experimental tests under the different oxidation temperatures. It was also found that the alloy containing 0.2 wt %Y 2O3 particles possess the lowest oxidation rate and shows great improvements in oxidation resistance compared to the alloy containing 0.2 wt % Nd2O3 particles and Al-Li base alloy. In this work, Taguchi method is performed to estimate the optimum weight gain /area (∆W/A) parameter in oxidation process of Al-Li base alloys to obtain a minimum thickness of oxidation layer. Taguchi method is used to formulate the experimental layout, to analyses the effect of each parameter (time, temperature and alloy type) on the oxidation generation and to predict the optimal choice for each parameter and analyzed the effect of these parameters on the weight gain /area (∆W/A) parameter. The analysis shows that, the temperature significantly affects on the (∆W/A) parameter.

Keywords: Al-Li base alloy, oxidation, Taguchi method, temperature

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6645 Renal Complications in Patients with Falciparum Malaria

Authors: Saira Baloch, Mohsin Ali Baloch

Abstract:

Background: Malaria is a potentially life-threatening disease and also a major public health problem in Pakistan. Renal failure is an emerging problem correlated with morbidity and mortality, however can be diagnosed and treated in the early stages. Objectives: To elucidate the biochemical renal parameters in patients with falciparum malaria and comparison with healthy control subjects. Method: 80 patients, who were diagnosed to be affected by falciparum malaria. Detailed history, general physical and systemic examination and necessary pathological, biochemical renal laboratory parameters and investigations were done. Results: Among the 80 patients, 43 were males and 37 were females. All patients were infected with P. falciparum. All patients had increased serum creatinine and urea levels and urine output of less than 400 ml/day were categorized as suffering from renal failure. Conclusion: Patients infected with P. falciparum are at an increased risk of developing renal failure when compared to patients infected with other complications. P. vivax has massive potential to cause life threatening complications and even death. Further research is required to understand the exact pathogenesis of various complications encountered in vivax malaria.

Keywords: falciparum malaria, renal failure, biochemical parameters, pathogenesis

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6644 COVID-19 Teaches Probability Risk Assessment

Authors: Sean Sloan

Abstract:

Probability Risk Assessments (PRA) can be a difficult concept for students to grasp. So in searching for different ways to describe PRA to relate it to their lives; COVID-19 came up. The parallels are amazing. Soon students began analyzing acceptable risk with the virus. This helped them to quantify just how dangerous is dangerous. The original lesson was dismissed and for the remainder of the period, the probability of risk, and the lethality of risk became the topic. Spreading events such as a COVID carrier on an airline became analogous to single fault casualties such as a Tsunami. Odds of spreading became odds of backup-diesel-generator failure – like with Fukashima Daiichi. Fatalities of the disease became expected fatalities due to radiation spread. Quantification from this discussion took it from hyperbole and emotion into one where we could rationally base guidelines. It has been one of the most effective educational devices observed.

Keywords: COVID, education, probability, risk

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6643 Development and Range Testing of a LoRaWAN System in an Urban Environment

Authors: N. R. Harris, J. Curry

Abstract:

This paper describes the construction and operation of an experimental LoRaWAN network surrounding the University of Southampton in the United Kingdom. Following successful installation, an experimental node design is built and characterised, with particular emphasis on radio range. Several configurations are investigated, including different data rates, and varying heights of node. It is concluded that although range can be great (over 8 km in this case), environmental topology is critical. However, shorter range implementations, up to about 2 km in an urban environment, are relatively insensitive although care is still needed. The example node and the relatively simple base station reported demonstrate that LoraWan can be a very low cost and practical solution to Internet of Things type applications for distributed monitoring systems with sensors spread over distances of several km.

Keywords: long-range, wireless, sensor, network

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6642 An Experimental Investigation of Rehabilitation and Strengthening of Reinforced Concrete T-Beams Under Static Monotonic Increasing Loading

Authors: Salem Alsanusi, Abdulla Alakad

Abstract:

An experimental investigation to study the behaviour of under flexure reinforced concrete T-Beams. Those Beams were loaded to pre-designated stress levels as percentage of calculated collapse loads. Repairing these beans by either reinforced concrete jacket, or by externally bolted steel plates were utilized. Twelve full scale beams were tested in this experimental program scheme. Eight out of the twelve beams were loaded under different loading levels. Tests were performed for the beams before and after repair with Reinforced Concrete Jacket (RCJ). The applied Load levels were 60%, 77% and 100% of the calculated collapse loads. The remaining four beams were tested before and after repair with Bolted Steel Plate (BSP). Furthermore, out previously mentioned four beams two beams were loaded to the calculated failure load 100% and the remaining two beams were not subjected to any load. The eight beams recorded for the RCJ test were repaired using reinforced concrete jacket. The four beams recorded for the BSP test were all repaired using steel plate at the bottom. All the strengthened beams were gradually loaded until failure occurs. However, in each loading case, the beams behaviour, before and after strengthening, were studied through close inspection of the cracking propagation, and by carrying out an extensive measurement of deformations and strength. The stress-strain curve for reinforcing steel and the failure strains measured in the tests were utilized in the calculation of failure load for the beams before and after strengthening. As a result, the calculated failure loads were close to the actual failure tests in case of beams before repair, ranging from 85% to 90% and also in case of beams repaired by reinforced concrete jacket ranging from 70% to 85%. The results were in case of beams repaired by bolted steel plates ranging from (50% to 85%). It was observed that both jacketing and bolted steel plate methods could effectively restore the full flexure capacity of the damaged beams. However, the reinforced jacket has increased the failure load by about 67%, whereas the bolted steel plates recovered the failure load.

Keywords: rehabilitation, strengthening, reinforced concrete, beams deflection, bending stresses

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6641 An Adaptive Cooperative Scheme for Reliability of Transmission Using STBC and CDD in Wireless Communications

Authors: Hyun-Jun Shin, Jae-Jeong Kim, Hyoung-Kyu Song

Abstract:

In broadcasting and cellular system, a cooperative scheme is proposed for the improvement of performance of bit error rate. Up to date, the coverage of broadcasting system coexists with the coverage of cellular system. Therefore each user in a cellular coverage is frequently involved in a broadcasting coverage. The proposed cooperative scheme is derived from the shared areas. The users receive signals from both broadcasting base station and cellular base station. The proposed scheme selects a cellular base station of a worse channel to achieve better performance of bit error rate in cooperation. The performance of the proposed scheme is evaluated in fading channel.

Keywords: cooperative communication, diversity, STBC, CDD, channel condition, broadcasting system, cellular system

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6640 College Faculty Perceptions of Instructional Strategies That Are Effective for Students with Dyslexia

Authors: Samantha R. Dutra

Abstract:

There are many issues that students face in college, such as academic-based struggles, financial issues, family responsibilities, and vocational problems. Students with dyslexia struggle even more with these problems compared to other students. This qualitative study examines faculty perceptions of instructing students with dyslexia. This study is important to the human services and post-secondary educational fields due to the increase in disabled students enrolled in college. This study is also substantial because of the reported bias faced by students with dyslexia and their academic failure. When students with LDs such as dyslexia experience bias, discrimination, and isolation, they are more apt to not seek accommodations, lack communication with faculty, and are more likely to drop out or fail. College students with dyslexia often take longer to complete their post-secondary education and are more likely to withdraw or drop out without earning a degree. Faculty attitudes and academic cultures are major barriers to the success and use of accommodations as well as modified instruction for students with disabilities, which leads to student success. Faculty members are often uneducated or misinformed regarding students with dyslexia. More importantly, many faculty members are unaware of the many ethical and legal implications that they face regarding accommodating students with dyslexia. Instructor expectations can generally be defined as the understanding and perceptions of students regarding their academic success. Skewed instructor expectations can affect how instructors interact with their students and can also affect student success. This is true for students with dyslexia in that instructors may have lower and biased expectations of these students and, therefore, directly impact students’ academic successes and failures. It is vital to understand how instructor attitudes affect the academic achievement of dyslexic students. This study will examine faculty perceptions of instructing students with dyslexia and faculty attitudes towards accommodations and institutional support. The literature concludes that students with dyslexia have many deficits and several learning needs. Furthermore, these are the students with the highest dropout and failure rates, as well as the lowest retention rates. Disabled students generally have many reasons why accommodations and supports just do not help. Some research suggests that accommodations do help students and show positive outcomes. Many improvements need to be made between student support service personnel, faculty, and administrators regarding providing access and adequate supports for students with dyslexia. As the research also suggests, providing more efficient and effective accommodations may increase positive student as well as faculty attitudes in college, and may improve student outcomes overall.

Keywords: dyslexia, faculty perception, higher education, learning disability

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6639 Reliability Analysis of Heat Exchanger Cycle Using Non-Parametric Method

Authors: Apurv Kulkarni, Shreyas Badave, B. Rajiv

Abstract:

Non-parametric reliability technique is useful for assessment of reliability of systems for which failure rates are not available. This is useful when detection of malfunctioning of any component is the key purpose during ongoing operation of the system. The main purpose of the Heat Exchanger Cycle discussed in this paper is to provide hot water at a constant temperature for longer periods of time. In such a cycle, certain components play a crucial role and this paper presents an effective way to predict the malfunctioning of the components by determination of system reliability. The method discussed in the paper is feasible and this is clarified with the help of various test cases.

Keywords: heat exchanger cycle, k-statistics, PID controller, system reliability

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6638 The Effect of Primary Treatment on Histopathological Patterns and Choice of Neck Dissection in Regional Failure of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Patients

Authors: Ralene Sim, Stefan Mueller, N. Gopalakrishna Iyer, Ngian Chye Tan, Khee Chee Soo, R. Shetty Mahalakshmi, Hiang Khoon Tan

Abstract:

Background: Regional failure in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is managed by salvage treatment in the form of neck dissection. Radical neck dissection (RND) is preferred over modified radical neck dissection (MRND) since it is traditionally believed to offer better long-term disease control. However, with the advent of more advanced imaging modalities like high-resolution Magnetic Resonance Imaging, Computed Tomography, and Positron Emission Tomography-CT scans, earlier detection is achieved. Additionally, concurrent chemotherapy also contributes to reduced tumour burden. Hence, there may be a lesser need for an RND and a greater role for MRND. With this retrospective study, the primary aim is to ascertain whether MRND, as opposed to RND, has similar outcomes and hence, whether there would be more grounds to offer a less aggressive procedure to achieve lower patient morbidity. Methods: This is a retrospective study of 66 NPC patients treated at Singapore General Hospital between 1994 to 2016 for histologically proven regional recurrence, of which 41 patients underwent RND and 25 who underwent MRND, based on surgeon preference. The type of ND performed, primary treatment mode, adjuvant treatment, and pattern of recurrence were reviewed. Overall survival (OS) was calculated using Kaplan-Meier estimate and compared. Results: Overall, the disease parameters such as nodal involvement and extranodal extension were comparable between the two groups. Comparing MRND and RND, the median (IQR) OS is 1.76 (0.58 to 3.49) and 2.41 (0.78 to 4.11) respectively. However, the p-value found is 0.5301 and hence not statistically significant. Conclusion: RND is more aggressive and has been associated with greater morbidity. Hence, with similar outcomes, MRND could be an alternative salvage procedure for regional failure in selected NPC patients, allowing similar salvage rates with lesser mortality and morbidity.

Keywords: nasopharyngeal carcinoma, neck dissection, modified neck dissection, radical neck dissection

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6637 Shame and Pride in Moral Self-Improvement

Authors: Matt Stichter

Abstract:

Moral development requires learning from one’s failures, but that turnsout to be especially challenging when dealing with moral failures. The distress prompted by moral failure can cause responses ofdefensiveness or disengagement rather than attempts to make amends and work on self-change. The most potentially distressing response to moral failure is a shame. However, there appears to be two different senses of “shame” that are conflated in the literature, depending on whether the failure is appraised as the result of a global and unalterable self-defect, or a local and alterable self-defect. One of these forms of shame does prompt self-improvement in response to moral failure. This occurs if one views the failure as indicating only a specific (local) defect in one’s identity, where that’s something repairable, rather than asanoverall(orglobal)defectinyouridentity that can’t be fixed. So, if the whole of one’s identity as a morally good person isn’t being called into question, but only a part, then that is something one could work on to improve. Shame, in this sense, provides motivation for self-improvement to fix this part oftheselfinthe long run, and this would be important for moral development. One factor that looks to affect these different self-attributions in the wake of moral failure can be found in mindset theory, as reactions to moral failure in these two forms of shame are similar to how those with a fixed or growth mindset of their own abilities, such as intelligence, react to failure. People fall along a continuum with respect to how they view abilities – it is more of a fixed entity that you cannot do much to change, or it is malleable such that you can train to improve it. These two mindsets, ‘fixed’ versus ‘growth’, have different consequences for how we react to failure – a fixed mindset leads to maladaptive responses because of feelings of helplessness to do better; whereas a growth mindset leads to adaptive responses where a person puts forth effort to learn how to act better the next time. Here we can see the parallels between a fixed mindset of one’s own (im)morality, as the way people respond to shame when viewed as indicating a global and unalterable self-defect parallels the reactions people have to failure when they have a fixed mindset. In addition, it looks like there may be a similar structure to pride. Pride is, like shame, a self-conscious emotion that arises from internal attributions about the self as being the cause of some event. There are also paradoxical results from research on pride, where pride was found to motivate pro-social behavior in some cases but aggression in other cases. Research suggests that there may be two forms of pride, authentic and hubristic, that are also connected to different self-attributions, depending on whether one is feeling proud about a particular (local) aspect of the self versus feeling proud about the whole of oneself (global).

Keywords: emotion, mindset, moral development, moral psychology, pride, shame, self-regulation

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