Search results for: extreme value distribution

Authors: Ehan Sabah Shukri, Wirachman Wisnoe

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The influence of twist arrangement on the temperature distribution in an annular diffuser fitted with twisted rectangular hub is investigated. Different pitches (Y = 120 mm, 100 mm, 80 mm, and 60 mm) for the twist arrangements are simulated to be compared. The geometry of the annular diffuser and the inlet condition for the hub arrangements are kept constant. The result reveals that using twisted rectangular hub insert with different pitches will force the temperature to distribute in a circular direction. However, temperature distribution will be enhanced with the length pitch increases.

Keywords: numerical simulation, twist arrangement, annular diffuser, temperature distribution, swirl flow, pitches

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Authors: Autcha Araveeporn

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This paper is to compare the parameter estimation of the mean in normal distribution by Maximum Likelihood (ML), Bayes, and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The ML estimator is estimated by the average of data, the Bayes method is considered from the prior distribution to estimate Bayes estimator, and MCMC estimator is approximated by Gibbs sampling from posterior distribution. These methods are also to estimate a parameter then the hypothesis testing is used to check a robustness of the estimators. Data are simulated from normal distribution with the true parameter of mean 2, and variance 4, 9, and 16 when the sample sizes is set as 10, 20, 30, and 50. From the results, it can be seen that the estimation of MLE, and MCMC are perceivably different from the true parameter when the sample size is 10 and 20 with variance 16. Furthermore, the Bayes estimator is estimated from the prior distribution when mean is 1, and variance is 12 which showed the significant difference in mean with variance 9 at the sample size 10 and 20.

Keywords: Bayes method, Markov chain Monte Carlo method, maximum likelihood method, normal distribution

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Authors: Mara F. Müller, Simon C. Griffith, Tara L. Crewe, Mirjam Kaestli, Sydney J. Collett, Ian J. Radford, Hamish A. Campbell

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The intensity and frequency of heat waves have been progressively increasing because of climate change. Passerines that inhabit very hot regions are already close to their physiological thermal limit and are thus considered highly susceptible to increased ambient temperatures. However, the extent by which passerines behaviorally compensate for extreme heat in their natural habitat has rarely been assessed due to monitoring challenges. To address this knowledge gap, coded VHF-nano transmitters were attached to a tropical passerine (Gouldian finch, Chloebia gouldiae). Fine-scale activity and movement were monitored throughout the hottest and driest period of the year using an array of static VHF-receivers. The finches were found to typically show a peak activity for a few hours at sunrise and remained relatively quiescent for the rest of the day. However, on extremely hot days (max temperature >38ºC), finches showed higher activity levels earlier in the morning and presented a second peak in the afternoon. Gouldian finches are physiologically challenged when ambient temperatures exceed 38ºC, suggesting the shift in movement activity reflects a behavioral mitigation strategy to extreme heat. These tropical finches already exist on an energetic knife-edge during this time of the year due to resource scarcity. Hence, the increased energetic expenditure to mitigate thermal stress may be detrimental. The study demonstrates the value of VHF-telemetry technology in monitoring the impact of global change on the biology of small-bodied mobile species.

Keywords: animal tracking, biotelemetry, climate change, extreme heat, movement activity, radiotelemetry, VHF-telemetry

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Authors: W. Widhiada, D. N. K. P. Negara, P. A. Suryawan

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The technological advances in the field of health to be very important, especially on the safety of the baby. In this case a lot of premature infants death caused by poorly managed health facilities. Mostly the death of premature baby caused by bacteria since the temperature around the baby is not normal. Related to this, the incubator equipment needs to be important, especially in how to control the temperature in incubator. On/Off controls is used to regulate the temperature distribution in the incubator so that the desired temperature is 36 °C to stay awake and stable. The authors have been observed and analyzed the data to determine the temperature distribution in the incubator using program of MATLAB/Simulink. The output temperature distribution is obtained at 36 °C in 400 seconds using an Arduino AT 2560. This incubator is able to maintain an ambient temperature and maintain the baby's body temperature within normal limits and keep the moisture in the air in accordance with the limit values required in infant incubator.

Keywords: on/off control, distribution temperature, Arduino AT 2560, baby incubator

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Authors: Hazem M. Al-Mofleh

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In this paper, a new four-parameter univariate continuous distribution called the Normal-Generalized Hyperbolic Secant Distribution (NGHS) is defined and studied. Some general and structural distributional properties are investigated and discussed, including: central and non-central n-th moments and incomplete moments, quantile and generating functions, hazard function, Rényi and Shannon entropies, shapes: skewed right, skewed left, and symmetric, modality regions: unimodal and bimodal, maximum likelihood (MLE) estimators for the parameters. Finally, two real data sets are used to demonstrate empirically its flexibility and prove the strength of the new distribution.

Keywords: bimodality, estimation, hazard function, moments, Shannon’s entropy

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Authors: Boukhris Lahouari, Bouchetara Mostefa

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The active safety of a vehicle is mainly influenced by the properties of the installed braking system. With the increase in road traffic density and travel speeds, increasingly stringent requirements are placed on the vehicle's behaviour during braking. The achievable decelerations are limited by the physical aspect characterized by the coefficient of friction between the tires and the ground. As a result, it follows that an optimized distribution of braking forces becomes necessary for a better use of friction coefficients. This objective could only be achieved if sufficient knowledge is available on the theory of vehicle dynamics during braking and on current standards for the approval of braking systems. These will facilitate the development of a braking force calculation algorithm that will enable an optimized distribution of braking forces to be achieved. Operating safety is conditioned by the requirements of efficiency, progressiveness, regularity or fidelity of a braking system without obviously neglecting the recommendations imposed by the legislator.

Keywords: brake force distribution, distribution diagram, friction coefficient, brake by wire

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Authors: Eseldin Keleb

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In the pharmaceutical industry particle size distribution is an important parameter for the characterization of pharmaceutical powders. The powder flowability, reactivity and compatibility, which have a decisive impact on the final product, are determined by particle size and size distribution. Therefore, the aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of processing parameters on the particle size distribution measurements. Different Size fractions of α-lactose monohydrate and 5% polyvinylpyrrolidone were prepared by wet granulation and were used for the preparation of samples. The influence of sieve load (50, 100, 150, 200, 250, 300, and 350 g), processing time (5, 10, and 15 min), sample size ratios (high percentage of small and large particles), type of disturbances (vibration and shaking) and process reproducibility have been investigated. Results obtained showed that a sieve load of 50 g produce the best separation, a further increase in sample weight resulted in incomplete separation even after the extension of the processing time for 15 min. Performing sieving using vibration was rapider and more efficient than shaking. Meanwhile between day reproducibility showed that particle size distribution measurements are reproducible. However, for samples containing 70% fines or 70% large particles, which processed at optimized parameters, the incomplete separation was always observed. These results indicated that sieving reliability is highly influenced by the particle size distribution of the sample and care must be taken for samples with particle size distribution skewness.

Keywords: sieving, reliability, particle size distribution, processing parameters

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Authors: Rafida M. Elobaid

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Most of the literature on goodness-of-fit test try to provide a theoretical basis for studying empirical distribution functions. Such goodness-of-fit tests are Kolmogorove-Simirnov and Crumer-Von Mises Type tests. However, it is likely that most of literature has not focused in details on the relationship of the values of the test statistics and skewness or kurtosis. The aim of this study is to investigate the behavior of the values of the χ2 test statistic with the variation of the skewness of right skewed distribution. A simulation study is conducted to generate random numbers from Weibull distribution. For a fixed sample sizes, different levels of skewness are considered, and the corresponding values of the χ2 test statistic are calculated. Using different sample sizes, the results show an inverse relationship between the value of χ2 test and the level of skewness for Wiebull distribution, i.e the value of χ2 test statistic decreases as the value of skewness increases. The research results also show that with large values of skewness we are more confident that the data follows the assumed distribution. Nonparametric Kendall τ test is used to confirm these results.

Keywords: goodness-of-fit test, chi-square test, simulation, continuous right skewed distributions

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Authors: Szu-Hua Wang, Yi-Wen Chen

Abstract:

Urban ecosystems are complex coupled human-environment systems. They contain abundant natural resources for producing natural assets and attract urban assets to consume natural resources for urban development. Urban ecosystems provide several ecosystem services, including provisioning services, regulating services, cultural services, and supporting services. Rapid global climate change makes urban ecosystems and their ecosystem services encountering various natural disasters. Lots of natural disasters have occurred around the world under the constant changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events in the past two decades. In Taiwan, hydrological disasters have been paid more attention due to the potential high sensitivity of Taiwan’s cities to climate change, and it impacts. However, climate change not only causes extreme weather events directly but also affects the interactions among human, ecosystem services and their dynamic feedback processes indirectly. Therefore, this study adopts a systematic method, solar energy synthesis, based on the concept of the eco-energy analysis. The Taipei area, the most densely populated area in Taiwan, is selected as the study area. The changes of ecosystem services between 2015 and Typhoon Soudelor have been compared in order to investigate the impacts of extreme precipitation events on ecosystem services. The results show that the forest areas are the largest contributions of energy to ecosystem services in the Taipei area generally. Different soil textures of different subsystem have various upper limits of water contents or substances. The major contribution of ecosystem services of the study area is natural hazard regulation provided by the surface water resources areas. During the period of Typhoon Soudelor, the freshwater supply in the forest areas had become the main contribution. Erosion control services were the main ecosystem service affected by Typhoon Soudelor. The second and third main ecosystem services were hydrologic regulation and food supply. Due to the interactions among ecosystem services, fresh water supply, water purification, and waste treatment had been affected severely.

Keywords: ecosystem, extreme precipitation events, ecosystem services, solar energy synthesis

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Authors: Boukhris Lahouari, Bouchetara Mostefa

Abstract:

The active safety of a vehicle is mainly influenced by the properties of the installed braking system. With the increase in road traffic density and travel speeds, increasingly stringent requirements are placed on the vehicle's behaviour during braking. The achievable decelerations are limited by the physical aspect characterized by the coefficient of friction between the tires and the ground. As a result, it follows that an optimized distribution of braking forces becomes necessary for a better use of friction coefficients. This objective could only be achieved if sufficient knowledge is available on the theory of vehicle dynamics during braking and on current standards for the approval of braking systems. This will facilitate the development of a braking force calculation algorithm that will enable an optimized distribution of braking forces to be achieved. Operating safety is conditioned by the requirements of efficiency, progressiveness, regularity or fidelity of a braking system without obviously neglecting the recommendations imposed by the legislator.

Keywords: brake force distribution, distribution diagram, friction coefficient, brake by wire

Procedia PDF Downloads 49

Authors: Mohammed Islam, Jungyong Wang, Dong Cheol Seo

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The Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) method is a novel, meshless, and Lagrangian technique based numerical method that has shown promises to accurately predict the hydrodynamics of water and structure interactions in violent flow conditions. The main goal of this study is to build confidence on the versatility of the Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) based tool, to use it as a complementary tool to the physical model testing capabilities and support research need for the performance evaluation of ships and offshore platforms exposed to an extreme and harsh environment. In the current endeavor, an open-sourced SPH-based tool was used and validated for modeling and predictions of the hydrodynamic interactions of a 6-DOF ship and bergy bits. The study involved the modeling of a modern generic drillship and simplified bergy bits in floating and towing scenarios and in regular and irregular wave conditions. The predictions were validated using the model-scale measurements on a moored ship towed at multiple oblique angles approaching a floating bergy bit in waves. Overall, this study results in a thorough comparison between the model scale measurements and the prediction outcomes from the SPH tool for performance and accuracy. The SPH predicted ship motions and forces were primarily within ±5% of the measurements. The velocity and pressure distribution and wave characteristics over the free surface depicts realistic interactions of the wave, ship, and the bergy bit. This work identifies and presents several challenges in preparing the input file, particularly while defining the mass properties of complex geometry, the computational requirements, and the post-processing of the outcomes.

Keywords: SPH, ship and bergy bit, hydrodynamic interactions, model validation, physical model testing

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Authors: Sulamain Alharbi, Mohammad Khiyami, Reda Amasha, Bassam Al-Johny, Hesham Khalil, Milton Wainwrigh

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Nematodes, Rotifers and Tardigrades (NRT) are extreme-tolerant invertebrates which can survive long periods of stasis brought about by extreme drying and cold. They can also resist the effects of UV radiation, and as a result could act as vehicles for the panspermic transfer of microorganisms. Here we show that NRT contain a variety of bacteria and fungi within their bodies in which environment they could be protected from the extremes of the space and released into new cosmic environments. Diatoms were also shown to contain viable alga and Escherichia coli and so could also act as panspermic vehicles for the transfer of these and perhaps other microbes through space. Although not studied here, NRT, and possibly diatoms, also carry protozoa and viruses within their bodies and could act as vehicles for the panspermic transfer of an even wider range of microbes than shown here.

Keywords: extromophiles, diatoms, panspermia, survival in space

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Authors: Sajjad Asefi, Hossein Afrakhte

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This paper presents the evaluation of reliability indices of an electrical distribution system using Monte Carlo simulation technique accounting Time To Switch (TTS) for each section. In this paper, the distribution system has been assumed by accounting random repair time omission. For simplicity, we have assumed the reliability analysis to be based on exponential law. Each segment has a specified rate of failure (λ) and repair time (r) which will give us the mean up time and mean down time of each section in distribution system. After calculating the modified mean up time (MUT) in years, mean down time (MDT) in hours and unavailability (U) in h/year, TTS have been added to the time which the system is not available, i.e. MDT. In this paper, we have assumed the TTS to be a random variable with Log-Normal distribution.

Keywords: distribution system, Monte Carlo simulation, reliability, repair time, time to switch (TTS)

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Authors: Andrzej Wałęga, Marta Cebulska, Agnieszka Ziernicka-Wojtaszek, Wojciech Młocek, Agnieszka Wałęga, Tommaso Caloiero

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Drought is one of the natural phenomena influencing many aspects of human activities like food production, agriculture, industry, and the ecological conditions of the environment. In the area of the Polish Carpathians, there are periods with a deficit of rainwater and an increasing frequency in dry months, especially in the cold half of the year. The aim of this work is a spatial and temporal analysis of drought, expressed as SPI in a heterogenous area of the Polish Carpathian and of the highland Region in the Central part of Europe based on long-term precipitation data. Also, to our best knowledge, for the first time in this work, drought characteristics analyzed via the SPI were discussed based on the atmospheric circulation calendar. The study region is the Upper Vistula Basin, located in the southern and south-eastern part of Poland. In this work, monthly precipitation from 56 rainfall stations was analysed from 1961 to 2022. The 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) were used as indicators of meteorological drought. For the 3-month SPI, the main climatic mechanisms determining extreme droughts were defined based on the calendar of synoptic circulations. The Mann-Kendall test was used to detect the trend of extreme droughts. Statistically significant trends of SPI were observed on 52.7% of all analyzed stations, and in most cases, a positive trend was observed. Statistically significant trends were more frequently observed in stations located in the western part of the analyzed region. Long-term droughts, represented by the 12-month SPI, occurred in all stations but not in all years. Short-term droughts (3-month SPI) were most frequent in the winter season, 6 and 9-month SPI in winter and spring, and 12-month SPI in winter and autumn, respectively. The spatial distribution of drought was highly diverse. The most intensive drought occurred in 1984, with the 6-month SPI covering 98% of the analyzed region and the 9 and 12-month SPI covering 90% of the entire region. Droughts exhibit a seasonal pattern, with a dominant 10-year periodicity for all analyzed variants of SPI. Additionally, Fourier analysis revealed a 2-year periodicity for the 3-, 6-, and 9-month SPI and a 31-year periodicity for the 12-month SPI. The results provide insights into the typical climatic conditions in Poland, with strong seasonality in precipitation. The study highlighted that short-term extreme droughts, represented by the 3-month SPI, are often caused by anticyclonic situations with high-pressure wedges Ka and Wa, and anticyclonic West as observed in 52.3% of cases. These findings are crucial for understanding the spatial and temporal variability of short and long-term extreme droughts in Central Europe, particularly for the agriculture sector dominant in the northern part of the analyzed region, where drought frequency is highest.

Keywords: atmospheric circulation, drought, precipitation, SPI, the Upper Vistula Basin

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Authors: Petra Balla, Gabor Manhertz, Akos Antal

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Nowadays spinal deformities are very frequent problems among teenagers. Scheuermann disease is a one dimensional deformity of the spine, but it has prevalence over 11% of the children. A traditional technology, the moiré method was used by us for screening and diagnosing this type of spinal deformity. A LabVIEW program has been developed to evaluate the moiré pictures of patients with Scheuermann disease. Two different solutions were tested in this computer program, the extreme and the inflexion point calculation methods. Effects using these methods were compared and according to the results both solutions seemed to be appropriate. Statistical results showed better efficiency in case of the extreme search method where the average difference was only 6,09⁰.

Keywords: spinal deformity, picture evaluation, Moiré method, Scheuermann disease, curve detection, Moiré topography

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Authors: Nejah Ben Mabrouk, Bassem Jarboui, Habib Chabchoub

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Production and distribution planning is the most important part in supply chain management. In this paper, a NP-hard production-distribution problem for one product over a multi-period horizon is investigated. The aim is to minimize the sum of costs of three items: production setups, inventories and distribution, while determining, for each period, the amount produced, the inventory levels and the delivery trips. To solve this difficult problem, we propose a bi-phase approach based on a Variable Neighbourhood Search (VNS). This heuristic is tested on 90 randomly generated instances from the literature, with 20 periods and 50, 100, 200 customers. Computational results show that our approach outperforms existing solution procedures available in the literature

Keywords: logistic, production, distribution, variable neighbourhood search

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Authors: Lloyd G. Allred

Abstract:

The distribution of velocities of particles in plasma is a well understood discipline of plasma physics. Boltzmann’s law and the Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution describe the distribution of velocity of a particle in plasma as a function of mass and temperature. Particles with the same mass tend to have the same velocity. By expressing the same law in terms of energy alone, the author obtains a distribution independent of mass. In summary, for particles in plasma, the energies tend to equalize, independent of the masses of the individual particles. For high-energy plasma, the original law predicts velocities greater than the speed of light. If one uses Einstein’s formula for energy (E=mc²), then a relativistic correction is not required.

Keywords: cosmology, EMP, plasma physics, relativity

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Authors: Asnawi Mohd Busrah, Au Mau Teng, Tan Chin Hooi, Lau Chee Chong

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This paper describes value based planning (VBP) methodology incorporating risk assessment as an enhanced and more practical approach to evaluate distribution network projects in Peninsular Malaysia. Assessment indicators associated with economics, performance and risks are formulated to evaluate distribution projects to quantify their benefits against investment. The developed methodology is implemented in a web-based software customized to capture investment and network data, compute assessment indicators and rank the proposed projects according to their benefits. Value based planning approach addresses economic factors in the power distribution planning assessment, so as to minimize cost solution to the power utility while at the same time provide maximum benefits to customers.

Keywords: value based planning, distribution network, value of loss load (VoLL), energy not served (ENS)

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Authors: Linh Nguyen Tung, Anh Truong Viet, Nghien Nguyen Ba, Chuong Trinh Trong

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This paper proposes a reconfiguration methodology based on a continuous genetic algorithm (CGA) and particle swarm optimization (PSO) for minimizing active power loss and minimizing voltage deviation. Both algorithms are adapted using graph theory to generate feasible individuals, and the modified crossover is used for continuous variable of CGA. To demonstrate the performance and effectiveness of the proposed methods, a comparative analysis of CGA with PSO for network reconfiguration, on 33-node and 119-bus radial distribution system is presented. The simulation results have shown that both CGA and PSO can be used in the distribution network reconfiguration and CGA outperformed PSO with significant success rate in finding optimal distribution network configuration.

Keywords: distribution network reconfiguration, particle swarm optimization, continuous genetic algorithm, power loss reduction, voltage deviation

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Authors: Pocholo Rodriguez, Anne Bernadine Ocampo, Ian Benedict Chan, Janric Micah Gray

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The state of an electric power system may be classified as either stable or unstable. The borderline of stability is at any condition for which a slight change in an unfavourable direction of any pertinent quantity will cause instability. Voltage instability in power distribution systems could lead to voltage collapse and thus power blackouts. The researchers will present an intelligent system using back propagation algorithm that can detect voltage instability and output voltage of a power distribution and classify it as stable or unstable. The researchers’ work is the use of parameters involved in voltage instability as input parameters to the neural network for training and testing purposes that can provide faster detection and monitoring of the power distribution system.

Keywords: back-propagation algorithm, load instability, neural network, power distribution system

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Authors: P. Wongthongtham, K. Coutinho, A. MacCarthy

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Layer-One.X (L1X) blockchain provides the infrastructure layer, and decentralised applications can be created on the L1X infrastructure. L1X tokenomics are important and require a proportional balance between token distribution, nurturing user activity and engagement, and financial incentives. In this paper, we present research in progress on L1X tokenomics describing key concepts and implementations, including token velocity and value, incentive scheme, and broad distribution. Particularly the economic design of the native token of the L1X blockchain, called HeartBit (HB), is presented.

Keywords: tokenisation, layer one blockchain, interoperability, token distribution, L1X blockchain

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Authors: B. Groß, P. Fronia, P. Nyhuis

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In addition to the production, which is already frequently optimized, improving the distribution logistics also opens up tremendous potential for increasing an enterprise’s competitiveness. Here too though, numerous interactions need to be taken into account, enterprises thus need to be able to identify and weigh between different potentials for economically efficient optimizations. In order to be able to assess potentials, enterprises require a suitable method. This paper first briefly presents the need for this research before introducing the procedure that will be used to develop an appropriate method that not only considers interactions but is also quickly and easily implemented.

Keywords: distribution logistics, evaluation of potential, methods, model

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Authors: Nitaya Buntao

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This paper considers the problems of interval estimation for rainfall mean of the lognormal distribution and the delta-lognormal distribution in Northeastern Thailand. We present here the modified generalized pivotal approach (MGPA) compared to the modified method of variance estimates recovery (MMOVER). The performance of each method is examined in term of coverage probabilities and average lengths by Monte Carlo simulation. An extensive simulation study indicates that the MMOVER performs better than the MGPA approach in terms of the coverage probability; it results in highly accurate coverage probability.

Keywords: rainfall mean, interval estimation, lognormal distribution, delta-lognormal distribution

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Authors: Ágnes Bogárdi-Mészöly, Takeshi Hashimoto, Shohei Yokoyama, Hiroshi Ishikawa

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The spread of Web 2.0 has caused user-generated content explosion. Users can tag resources to describe and organize them. Tag clouds provide rough impression of relative importance of each tag within overall cloud in order to facilitate browsing among numerous tags and resources. The goal of our paper is to enrich visualization of tag clouds. A font distribution algorithm has been proposed to calculate a novel metric based on frequency and content, and to classify among classes from this metric based on power law distribution and percentages. The suggested algorithm has been validated and verified on the tag cloud of a real-world thesis portal.

Keywords: tag cloud, font distribution algorithm, frequency-based, content-based, power law

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Authors: P. Selyshchev

Abstract:

We consider fluctuations of defects density taking into account their interaction. Stochastic field of displacement generation rate gives random defect distribution. We determinate statistical characteristics (mean and dispersion) of random field of point defect distribution as function of defect generation parameters, temperature and properties of irradiated crystal.

Keywords: irradiation, primary defects, interaction, fluctuations

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Authors: Daniyar Seitenov, Nazim Mir-Nasiri

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Optimization of horizontal axis semi-exposed wind turbine has been performed using a shield protection that automatically protects the generator shaft at extreme wind speeds from over speeding, mechanical damage and continues generating electricity during the high wind speed conditions. A semi-exposed to wind generator has been designed and its structure has been described in this paper. The simplified point-force dynamic load model on the blades has been derived for normal and extreme wind conditions with and without shield involvement. Numerical simulation has been conducted at different values of wind speed to study the efficiency of shield application. The obtained results show that the maximum power generated by the wind turbine with shield does not exceed approximately the rated value of the generator, where shield serves as an automatic break for extreme wind speed values of 15 m/sec and above. Meantime the wind turbine without shield produced a power that is much larger than the rated value. The optimized horizontal axis semi-exposed wind turbine with shield protection is suitable for low and medium power generation when installed on the roofs of high rise buildings for harvesting wind energy. Wind shield works automatically with no power consumption. The structure of the generator with the protection, math simulation of kinematics and dynamics of power generation has been described in details in this paper.

Keywords: renewable energy, wind turbine, wind turbine optimization, high wind speed

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Authors: Antonia Harold-Barry, Eugene Dempsey

Abstract:

Background: The objective is to examine the survival and outcome of infants born under 26 weeks gestation in an Irish tertiary maternity hospital from 2007-2016 and to describe the survival and neurodevelopmental outcomes of these extremely preterm infants. Method: The population is 132 infants born at 23, 24, and 25 weeks in Cork University Maternity Hospital from 2007 to 2016. Ethical approval was granted by the Cork Clinical Research Ethics Committee. Patient details were obtained from the Vermont Oxford and Badger Networks. Survival rates and Bayley scores were calculated to assess neurodevelopmental outcomes. Statistical analysis with SPSS included frequencies, distributions, and comparisons between data from 2007-2011 and 2012-2016. Results: Overall survival rate was 63%. Of the surviving babies, 61% had Bayley scores calculated. Survival stood at 39% for delivery at 23 weeks, 50% at 24 weeks, and 83% at 25 weeks. The 2012 to 2016 cohort has shown further increases in survival, with 50% of babies at 23 weeks, 58% at 24 weeks, and 89% at 25 weeks. Corresponding figures for 2007-2011 are 20%, 39%, and 75%. Gestational age and incidence of periventricular leukomalacia were statistically significant, with a p-value of 0.022. Gestational age and delivery room deaths had a p-value of 0.025, as did gestational age and birth weight. A comparison of the two cohorts (2007-2011 and 2012-2016) with the administration of antenatal steroids showed a statistically significant p-value of 0.044. Conclusion: There is less morbidity and mortality in infants born at 25 than at 23 or 24 weeks. Survival of extremely premature infants has increased significantly over the past ten years. Survival rates with normal neurodevelopmental outcomes are comparable with international standards and reflect positive changes in attitude and practices in neonatal intensive care. This study will inform parents about the potential outcomes of extreme prematurity and policy regarding the management of extreme prematurity.

Keywords: extreme of viability, neurodevelopmental outcome, periventricular leukomalacia, prematurity

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Authors: Eugen Rusu

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The objective of the work proposed is to perform an analysis of the wave conditions in the Black Sea basin. This is especially focused on the spatial and temporal occurrences and on the dynamics of the most extreme storms in the context of the climate changes. A numerical modelling system, based on the spectral phase averaged wave model SWAN, has been implemented and validated against both in situ measurements and remotely sensed data, all along the sea. Moreover, a successive correction method for the assimilation of the satellite data has been associated with the wave modelling system. This is based on the optimal interpolation of the satellite data. Previous studies show that the process of data assimilation improves considerably the reliability of the results provided by the modelling system. This especially concerns the most sensitive cases from the point of view of the accuracy of the wave predictions, as the extreme storm situations are. Following this numerical approach, it has to be highlighted that the results provided by the wave modelling system above described are in general in line with those provided by some similar wave prediction systems implemented in enclosed or semi-enclosed sea basins. Simulations of this wave modelling system with data assimilation have been performed for the 30-year period 1987-2016. Considering this database, the next step was to analyze the intensity and the dynamics of the higher storms encountered in this period. According to the data resulted from the model simulations, the western side of the sea is considerably more energetic than the rest of the basin. In this western region, regular strong storms provide usually significant wave heights greater than 8m. This may lead to maximum wave heights even greater than 15m. Such regular strong storms may occur several times in one year, usually in the wintertime, or in late autumn, and it can be noticed that their frequency becomes higher in the last decade. As regards the case of the most extreme storms, significant wave heights greater than 10m and maximum wave heights close to 20m (and even greater) may occur. Such extreme storms, which in the past were noticed only once in four or five years, are more recent to be faced almost every year in the Black Sea, and this seems to be a consequence of the climate changes. The analysis performed included also the dynamics of the monthly and annual significant wave height maxima as well as the identification of the most probable spatial and temporal occurrences of the extreme storm events. Finally, it can be concluded that the present work provides valuable information related to the characteristics of the storm conditions and on their dynamics in the Black Sea. This environment is currently subjected to high navigation traffic and intense offshore and nearshore activities and the strong storms that systematically occur may produce accidents with very serious consequences.

Keywords: Black Sea, extreme storms, SWAN simulations, waves

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Authors: Sana Ansari, Sirus Mohammadi

Abstract:

In distribution systems, shunt capacitors are used to reduce power losses, to improve voltage profile, and to increase the maximum flow through cables and transformers. This paper presents a new method to determine the optimal locations and economical sizing of fixed and/or switched shunt capacitors with a view to power losses reduction and voltage stability enhancement. General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) has been used to solve the maximization modules using the MINOS optimization software with Linear Programming (LP). The proposed method is tested on 33 node distribution system and the results show that the algorithm suitable for practical implementation on real systems with any size.

Keywords: power losses, voltage stability, radial distribution systems, capacitor

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Authors: Majid Samiee Zonoozian

Abstract:

For such important constructions as jacket type platforms, scrupulous attention in analysis, design and calculation processes is needed. The reliability assessment method has been established into an extensively used method to behavior safety calculation of jacket platforms. In the present study, a methodology for the reliability calculation of an offshore jacket platform in contradiction of the extreme wave loading state is available. Therefore, sensitivity analyses are applied to acquire the nonlinear response of jacket-type platforms against extreme waves. The jacket structure is modeled by applying a nonlinear finite-element model with regards to the tubular members' behave. The probability of a member’s failure under extreme wave loading is figured by a finite-element reliability code. The FORM and SORM approaches are applied for the calculation of safety directories and reliability indexes have been detected. A case study for a fixed jacket-type structure positioned in the Persian Gulf is studied by means of the planned method. Furthermore, to define the failure standards, equations suggested by the 21st version of the API RP 2A-WSD for The jacket-type structures’ tubular members designing by applying the mixed axial bending and axial pressure. Consequently, the effect of wave Loades in the reliability index was considered.

Keywords: Jacket-Type structure, reliability, failure probability, tubular members

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