Search results for: exponential stability in probability

Authors: Khoshnaw Khalid Hama Saleh, Ergun Ercelebi

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Increasingly complex modern power systems require stability, especially for transient and small disturbances. Transient stability plays a major role in stability during fault and large disturbance. This paper compares a power system stabilizer (PSS) and static Var compensator (SVC) to improve damping oscillation and enhance transient stability. The effectiveness of a PSS connected to the exciter and/or governor in damping electromechanical oscillations of isolated synchronous generator was tested. The SVC device is a member of the shunt FACTS (flexible alternating current transmission system) family, utilized in power transmission systems. The designed model was tested with a multi-machine system consisting of four machines six bus, using MATLAB/SIMULINK software. The results obtained indicate that SVC solutions are better than PSS.

Keywords: FACTS, MATLAB/SIMULINK, multi-machine system, PSS, SVC, transient stability

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Authors: Carolina Senabre Blanes, Sergio Valero Verdú, Emilio Velasco SáNchez

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This research objective is to obtain a percentage of success for each Ministry of Transport (MOT) facilities of each city of the Alicante region from Comunidad Valenciana from Spain by comparing results obtained by using different brake testers. It has been studied which types of brake tester are being used at each city nowadays. Different types of brake testers are used at each city, and the mechanical engineering staffs from the Miguel Hernández University have studied differences between all of them, and have obtained measures from each type. A percentage of probability of success will be given to each MOT station when you try to pass the exam with the same car with same characteristics and the same wheels. In other words, parameters of the vehicle have been controlled to be the same at all tests; therefore, brake measurements variability will be due to the type of testers could be used at the MOT station. A percentage of probability to pass the brake exam at each city will be given by comparing results of tests.

Keywords: brake tester, Mot station, probability to pass the exam, brake tester characteristics

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Authors: Khattab Al Qaisi, Nicholas Bowring

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This paper presents the simulation results of the effects of sampling frequency on the total harmonic distortion (THD) of three-phase inverters using the space vector pulse width modulation (SVPWM) and space vector control (SVC) algorithms. The relationship between the variables was studied using curve fitting techniques, and it has been shown that, for 50 Hz inverters, there is an exponential relation between the sampling frequency and THD up to around 8500 Hz, beyond which the performance of the model becomes irregular, and there is an negative exponential relation between the sampling frequency and the marginal improvement to the THD. It has also been found that the performance of SVPWM is better than that of SVC with the same sampling frequency in most frequency range, including the range where the performance of the former is irregular.

Keywords: DSI, SVPWM, THD, DC-AC converter, sampling frequency, performance

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Authors: M. R. Ghasemi, R. Ghiasi, H. Varaee

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Surrogate model has received increasing attention for use in detecting damage of structures based on vibration modal parameters. However, uncertainties existing in the measured vibration data may lead to false or unreliable output result from such model. In this study, an efficient approach based on Monte Carlo simulation is proposed to take into account the effect of uncertainties in developing a surrogate model. The probability of damage existence (PDE) is calculated based on the probability density function of the existence of undamaged and damaged states. The kriging technique allows one to genuinely quantify the surrogate error, therefore it is chosen as metamodeling technique. Enhanced version of ideal gas molecular movement (EIGMM) algorithm is used as main algorithm for model updating. The developed approach is applied to detect simulated damage in numerical models of 72-bar space truss and 120-bar dome truss. The simulation results show the proposed method can perform well in probability-based damage detection of structures with less computational effort compared to direct finite element model.

Keywords: probability-based damage detection (PBDD), Kriging, surrogate modeling, uncertainty quantification, artificial intelligence, enhanced ideal gas molecular movement (EIGMM)

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Authors: Nicolò Vaiana, Giorgio Serino

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The nonlinear time history analysis of seismically base-isolated structures can require a significant computational effort when the behavior of each seismic isolator is predicted by adopting the widely used differential equation Bouc-Wen model. In this paper, a nonlinear exponential model, able to simulate the response of seismic isolation bearings within a relatively large displacements range, is described and adopted in order to reduce the numerical computations and speed up the nonlinear dynamic analysis. Compared to the Bouc-Wen model, the proposed one does not require the numerical solution of a nonlinear differential equation for each time step of the analysis. The seismic response of a 3d base-isolated structure with a lead rubber bearing system subjected to harmonic earthquake excitation is simulated by modeling each isolator using the proposed analytical model. The comparison of the numerical results and computational time with those obtained by modeling the lead rubber bearings using the Bouc-Wen model demonstrates the good accuracy of the proposed model and its capability to reduce significantly the computational effort of the analysis.

Keywords: base isolation, computational efficiency, nonlinear exponential model, nonlinear time history analysis

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Authors: Neil Bar, Andrew Heweston

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Probability of failure (PF) often appears alongside factor of safety (FS) in design acceptance criteria for rock slope, underground excavation and open pit mine designs. However, the design acceptance criteria generally provide no guidance relating to how PF should be calculated for homogeneous and heterogeneous rock masses, or what qualifies a ‘reasonable’ PF assessment for a given slope design. Observational and kinematic methods were widely used in the 1990s until advances in computing permitted the routine use of numerical modelling. In the 2000s and early 2010s, PF in numerical models was generally calculated using the point estimate method. More recently, some limit equilibrium analysis software offer statistical parameter inputs along with Monte-Carlo or Latin-Hypercube sampling methods to automatically calculate PF. Factors including rock type and density, weathering and alteration, intact rock strength, rock mass quality and shear strength, the location and orientation of geologic structure, shear strength of geologic structure and groundwater pore pressure influence the stability of rock slopes. Significant engineering and geological judgment, interpretation and data interpolation is usually applied in determining these factors and amalgamating them into a geotechnical model which can then be analysed. Most factors are estimated ‘approximately’ or with allowances for some variability rather than ‘exactly’. When it comes to numerical modelling, some of these factors are then treated deterministically (i.e. as exact values), while others have probabilistic inputs based on the user’s discretion and understanding of the problem being analysed. This paper discusses the importance of understanding the key aspects of slope design for homogeneous and heterogeneous rock masses and how they can be translated into reasonable PF assessments where the data permits. A case study from a large open pit gold mine in a complex geological setting in Western Australia is presented to illustrate how PF can be calculated using different methods and obtain markedly different results. Ultimately sound engineering judgement and logic is often required to decipher the true meaning and significance (if any) of some PF results.

Keywords: probability of failure, point estimate method, Monte-Carlo simulations, sensitivity analysis, slope stability

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Authors: Eti Dwi Wiraningsih, Folashade Agusto, Lina Aryati, Syamsuddin Toaha, Suzanne Lenhart, Widodo, Willy Govaerts

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This paper considers a deterministic model for the transmission dynamics of rabies virus in the wild dogs-domestic dogs-human zoonotic cycle. The effect of vaccination and culling in dogs is considered on the model, then the stability was analysed to get basic reproduction number. We use the next generation matrix method and Routh-Hurwitz test to analyze the stability of the Disease-Free Equilibrium and Endemic Equilibrium of this model.

Keywords: stability analysis, rabies model, vaccination effect, culling in dogs

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Authors: M. Tiachachat, M. Mihoubi

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The Bell polynomials are special polynomials in combinatorial analysis that have a wide range of applications in mathematics. They have interested many authors. The exponential partial Bell polynomials have been well reduced to some special combinatorial sequences. Numerous researchers had already been interested in the above polynomials, as evidenced by many articles in the literature. Inspired by this work, in this work, we propose a family of special polynomials named after the 2-successive partial Bell polynomials. Using the combinatorial approach, we prove the properties of these numbers, derive several identities, and discuss some special cases. This family includes well-known numbers and polynomials such as Stirling numbers, Bell numbers and polynomials, and so on. We investigate their properties by employing generating functions

Keywords: 2-associated r-Stirling numbers, the exponential partial Bell polynomials, generating function, combinatorial interpretation

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Authors: Seyed Mohammad Nasir Mousavi, Amir Mashayekh, Pasha Hejazi, Sanaz Kanani Zadeh Khalkhali

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To determine the stability of the oil percent canola varieties, an experiment was done in a randomized complete block design with four replications in four research stations of the country Shahrood, Esfahan, Kermanshah, Varamin. Analysis of variance showed that there is cultivars considerable variability in the percentage of oil. The results showed that the coefficient of variation of oil Hyola 401 and Hyola308 stability and flexibility are high. Cultivars Cooper and Likord are minimum variance Shukla that stable for the percentage of oil Based on the chart AMMI 1, cultivars Zarfam and Hyola 401 are of oil percentage than other varieties had higher stability. On the chart AMMI2, cultivars Karun and Hyola 308 are identified as stable, also location Isfahan is stable

Keywords: canola, stability, AMMI, variance Shukla

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Authors: Jialin Wu, Zhiwei Lian, Jieyu Tang, Jingyun Shen

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Tornado is a serious and unpredictable natural disaster, which has an important impact on people's production and life. The probability of being hit by tornadoes in China was analyzed considering the principles of tornado formation. Then some suggestions on layout and shapes for newly-built buildings were provided combined with the characteristics of tornado wind fields. Fuzzy clustering and inverse closeness methods were used to evaluate the probability levels of tornado risks in various provinces based on classification and ranking. GIS was adopted to display the results. Finally, wind field single-vortex tornado was studied to discuss the optimized design of rural low-rise houses in Yancheng, Jiangsu as an example. This paper may provide enough data to support building and urban design in some specific regions.

Keywords: tornado probability, computational fluid dynamics, fuzzy mathematics, optimal design

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Authors: Li Minghui, Min Shaorong, Zhang Jun

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This paper aims for studying the operational efficiency of surface warship’s motorized evasion to acoustic homing torpedo. It orderly developed trajectory model, self-guide detection model, vessel evasion model, as well as anti-torpedo error model in three-dimensional space to make up for the deficiency of precious researches analyzing two-dimensionally confrontational models. Then, making use of the Monte Carlo method, it carried out the simulation for the confrontation process of evasion in the environment of MATLAB. At last, it quantitatively analyzed the main factors which determine vessel’s survival probability. The results show that evasion relative bearing and speed will affect vessel’s survival probability significantly. Thus, choosing appropriate evasion relative bearing and speed according to alarming range and alarming relative bearing for torpedo, improving alarming range and positioning accuracy and reducing the response time against torpedo will improve the vessel’s survival probability significantly.

Keywords: acoustic homing torpedo, vessel evasion, monte carlo method, torpedo defense, vessel's survival probability

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Authors: Puneet Chawla, Balwinder Singh

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Recently, increased attention has been devoted to the voltage instability phenomenon in power systems. Many techniques have been proposed in the literature for evaluating and predicting voltage stability using steady state analysis methods. In this paper, P-V and Q-V curves have been generated for a 57 bus Patiala Rajpura circle of India. The power-flow program is developed in MATLAB using Newton-Raphson method. Using Q-V curves, the weakest bus of the power system and the maximum reactive power change permissible on that bus is calculated. STATCOMs are placed on the weakest bus to improve the voltage and hence voltage stability and also the power transmission capability of the line.

Keywords: voltage stability, reactive power, power flow, weakest bus, STATCOM

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Authors: Peter J. Robinson, W. J. Wouter Botzen

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Individuals often over-weight low probabilities and under-weight moderate to high probabilities, however very low probabilities are either significantly over-weighted or neglected. Little is known about factors affecting probability weighting in Prospect Theory related to emotions specific to risk (anticipatory and anticipated emotions), the threshold of concern, as well as personality traits like locus of control. This study provides these insights by examining factors that influence probability weighting in the context of flood insurance demand in an economic experiment. In particular, we focus on determinants of flood probability neglect to provide recommendations for improved risk management. In addition, results obtained using real incentives and no performance-based payments are compared in the experiment with high experimental outcomes. Based on data collected from 1’041 Dutch homeowners, we find that: flood probability neglect is related to anticipated regret, worry and the threshold of concern. Moreover, locus of control and regret affect probabilistic pessimism. Nevertheless, we do not observe strong evidence that incentives influence flood probability neglect nor probability weighting. The results show that low, moderate and high flood probabilities are under-weighted, which is related to framing in the flooding context and the degree of realism respondents attach to high probability property damages. We suggest several policies to overcome psychological factors related to under-weighting flood probabilities to improve flood preparations. These include policies that promote better risk communication to enhance insurance decisions for individuals with a high threshold of concern, and education and information provision to change the behaviour of internal locus of control types as well as people who see insurance as an investment. Multi-year flood insurance may also prevent short-sighted behaviour of people who have a tendency to regret paying for insurance. Moreover, bundling low-probability/high-impact risks with more immediate risks may achieve an overall covered risk which is less likely to be judged as falling below thresholds of concern. These measures could aid the development of a flood insurance market in the Netherlands for which we find to be demand.

Keywords: flood insurance demand, prospect theory, risk perceptions, risk preferences

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Authors: Nkongho Ayuketang Arreyndip, Ebobenow Joseph

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In this paper, to model a real life wind turbine, a probabilistic approach is proposed to model the dynamics of the blade elements of a small axial wind turbine under extreme stochastic wind speeds conditions. It was found that the power and the torque probability density functions even though decreases at these extreme wind speeds but are not infinite. Moreover, we also found that it is possible to stabilize the power coefficient (stabilizing the output power) above rated wind speeds by turning some control parameters. This method helps to explain the effect of turbulence on the quality and quantity of the harness power and aerodynamic torque.

Keywords: probability, probability density function, stochastic, turbulence

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Authors: T. J. Ellapen, N. Acampora, S. Dawson, J. Arling, C. Van Niekerk, H. J. Van Heerden

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Objectives: To determine the comparative proprioceptive performance of injured versus non-injured adolescent female hockey players when wearing an ankle brace. Methods: Data were collected from 100 high school players who belonged to the Highway Secondary School KZN Hockey league via voluntary parental informed consent and player assent. Players completed an injury questionnaire probing the prevalence and nature of hockey injuries (March-August 2013). Subsequently players completed a Biodex proprioceptive test with and without an ankle brace. Probability was set at p≤ 0.05. Results: Twenty-two players sustained ankle injuries within the six months (p<0.001). Injured players performed similarly without bracing Right Anterior Posterior Index (RAPI): 2.8±0.9; Right Medial Lateral Index (RMLI): 1.9±0.7; Left Anterior Posterior Index (LAPI) LAPI: 2.7; Left Medial Lateral Index (LMLI): 1.7±0.6) as compared to bracing (RAPI: 2.7±1.4; RMLI: 1.8±0.6; LAPI: 2.6±1.0; LMLI: 1.5±0.6) (p>0.05). However, bracing (RAPI: 2.2±0.8; RMLI: 1.5±0.5; LAPI: 2.4±0.9; MLI: 1.5±0.5) improved the ankle stability of the non-injured group as compared to their unbraced performance (RAPI: 2.5±1.0; RMLI: 1.8±0.8; LAPI: 2.8±1.1; LMLI: 1.8±0.6) (p<0.05). Conclusion: Ankle bracing did not enhance the stability of injured ankles. However ankle bracing has an ergogenic effect enhancing the stability of healthy ankles.

Keywords: hockey, proprioception, ankle, bracing

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Authors: Jon-Chao Hong, Tsai-Ru Fan, Shih-Min Hsu

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Virtual reality (VR) can generate mirror neurons that facilitate learners to transfer virtual skills to a real environment in skill training, and most studies approved the positive effect of applying in many domains. However, rare studies have focused on the experiential values of participants from a gender perspective. To address this issue, the present study used a VR program named kitchen assistant training, focusing on cutting vegetables and invited 400 students to practice for 20 minutes. Useful data from 367 were subjected to statistical analysis. The results indicated that male participants. From the comparison of average, it seems that females perceived higher than males in learning effectiveness. Expectedly, the VR-Cutting vegetables can be used for pre-training of real vegetable cutting.

Keywords: exponential value, facilitate learning, gender difference, virtual reality

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Authors: Aneia Rajiel Busmente, Renato Gunio Jr., Jazin Mautante, Denise Joy Mendoza, Raymond Benedict Tagorio, Gabriel Uy, Natalie Quinn Valenzuela, Ma. Elayza Villa, Francine Yezha Vizcarra, Sofia Madelle Yapan, Eugene Kurt Yboa

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COVID-19’s rapid spread caused a dramatic change in the nation, especially the educational system. The Department of Education was forced to adopt a practical learning platform without neglecting health, a printed modular distance learning. The Philippines' K–12 curriculum includes Statistics and Probability as one of the key courses as it offers students the knowledge to evaluate and comprehend data. Due to student’s difficulty and lack of understanding of the concepts of Statistics and Probability in Normal Distribution. The Self-Learning Module in Statistics and Probability about the Normal Distribution created by the Department of Education has several problems, including many activities, unclear illustrations, and insufficient examples of concepts which enables learners to have a difficulty accomplishing the module. The purpose of this study is to determine the effectiveness of self-learning module on the academic performance of students in the subject Statistics and Probability, it will also explore students’ perception towards the quality of created Self-Learning Module in Statistics and Probability. Despite the availability of Self-Learning Modules in Statistics and Probability in the Philippines, there are still few literatures that discuss its effectiveness in improving the performance of Senior High School students in Statistics and Probability. In this study, a Self-Learning Module on Normal Distribution is evaluated using a quasi-experimental design. STEM students in Grade 11 from National University's Nazareth School will be the study's participants, chosen by purposive sampling. Google Forms will be utilized to find at least 100 STEM students in Grade 11. The research instrument consists of 20-item pre- and post-test to assess participants' knowledge and performance regarding Normal Distribution, and a Likert scale survey to evaluate how the students perceived the self-learning module. Pre-test, post-test, and Likert scale surveys will be utilized to gather data, with Jeffreys' Amazing Statistics Program (JASP) software being used for analysis.

Keywords: self-learning module, academic performance, statistics and probability, normal distribution

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Authors: N. Sopipan

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In this paper, we study of rainfall time series of weather stations in Nakhon Ratchasima province in Thailand using various statistical methods enabled to analyse the behaviour of rainfall in the study areas. Time-series analysis is an important tool in modelling and forecasting rainfall. ARIMA and Holt-Winter models based on exponential smoothing were built. All the models proved to be adequate. Therefore, could give information that can help decision makers establish strategies for proper planning of agriculture, drainage system and other water resource applications in Nakhon Ratchasima province. We found the best perform for forecasting is ARIMA(1,0,1)(1,0,1)12.

Keywords: ARIMA Models, exponential smoothing, Holt-Winter model

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Authors: Oludamilare Bode Adewuyi, Yanxia Sun, Isaiah Gbadegesin Adebayo

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Voltage stability analysis is crucial to the reliable and economic operation of power systems. The power system of developing nations is more susceptible to failures due to the continuously increasing load demand, which is not matched with generation increase and efficient transmission infrastructures. Thus, most power systems are heavily stressed, and the planning of extra generation from distributed generation sources needs to be efficiently done so as to ensure the security of the power system. Some voltage stability index-based approach for DG siting has been reported in the literature. However, most of the existing voltage stability indices, though sufficient, are found to be inaccurate, especially for overloaded power systems. In this paper, the performance of a relatively different approach using a line voltage stability margin indicator, which has proven to have better accuracy, has been presented and compared with a conventional line voltage stability index for DG siting using the Nigerian 28 bus system. Critical boundary index (CBI) for voltage stability margin estimation was deployed to identify suitable locations for DG placement, and the performance was compared with DG placement using the Novel Line Stability Index (NLSI) approach. From the simulation results, both CBI and NLSI agreed greatly on suitable locations for DG on the test system; while CBI identified bus 18 as the most suitable at system overload, NLSI identified bus 8 to be the most suitable. Considering the effect of the DG placement at the selected buses on the voltage magnitude profile, the result shows that the DG placed on bus 18 identified by CBI improved the performance of the power system better.

Keywords: voltage stability analysis, voltage collapse, voltage stability index, distributed generation

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Authors: S. Benkraouda, Z. Djelloul-Khedda, B. Yagoubi

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we present a method for early detection of forest fires from a thermal infrared satellite image, using the image matrix of the probability of belonging. The principle of the method is to compare a theoretical mathematical model to an experimental model. We considered that each line of the image matrix, as an embodiment of a non-stationary random process. Since the distribution of pixels in the satellite image is statistically dependent, we divided these lines into small stationary and ergodic intervals to characterize the image by an adequate mathematical model. A standard deviation was chosen to generate random variables, so each interval behaves naturally like white Gaussian noise. The latter has been selected as the mathematical model that represents a set of very majority pixels, which we can be considered as the image background. Before modeling the image, we made a few pretreatments, then the parameters of the theoretical Gaussian model were extracted from the modeled image, these settings will be used to calculate the probability of each interval of the modeled image to belong to the theoretical Gaussian model. The high intensities pixels are regarded as foreign elements to it, so they will have a low probability, and the pixels that belong to the background image will have a high probability. Finally, we did present the reverse of the matrix of probabilities of these intervals for a better fire detection.

Keywords: forest fire, forest fire detection, satellite image, normal distribution, theoretical gaussian model, thermal infrared matrix image

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Authors: S. A. Gayvoronsky, T. A. Ezangina

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The robust control system objects with interval-undermined parameters is considers in this paper. Initial information about the system is its characteristic polynomial with interval coefficients. On the basis of coefficient estimations of quality indices and criterion of the maximum stability degree, the methods of synthesis of a robust regulator parametric is developed. The example of the robust stabilization system synthesis of the rope tension is given in this article.

Keywords: interval polynomial, controller synthesis, analysis of quality factors, maximum degree of stability, robust degree of stability, robust oscillation, system accuracy

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Authors: Arcady Ponosov, Ramazan Kadiev

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Input-to-State Stability (ISS) is widely used in deterministic control theory but less known in the stochastic case. Roughly speaking, the theory explains when small perturbations of the right-hand sides of the system on the entire semiaxis cause only small changes in the solutions of the system, again on the entire semiaxis. This property is crucial in many applications. In the report, we explain how to define and study ISS for systems of linear stochastic differential equations with or without delays. The central result connects ISS with the property of Lyapunov stability. This relationship is well-known in the deterministic setting, but its stochastic version is new. As an application, a method of studying asymptotic Lyapunov stability for stochastic delay equations is described and justified. Several examples are provided that confirm the efficiency and simplicity of the framework.

Keywords: asymptotic stability, delay equations, operator methods, stochastic perturbations

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Authors: Anshul Gupta, T. Shankar

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In this paper, we had analyzed the call drop to provide a good quality of service to user. By optimizing it we can increase the coverage area and also the reduction of interference and congestion created in a network. Basically handover is the transfer of call from one cell site to another site during a call. Here we have analyzed the whole network by two method-statistic model and analytic model. In statistic model we have collected all the data of a network during busy hour and normal 24 hours and in analytic model we have the equation through which we have to find the call drop probability. By avoiding unnecessary handovers we can increase the number of calls per hour. The most important parameter is co-efficient of variation on which the whole paper discussed.

Keywords: coefficient of variation, mean, standard deviation, call drop probability, handover

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Authors: Fazia Rahmoune, Sofiane Ziani

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Retrial queueing systems have been extensively used to stochastically model many problems arising in computer networks, telecommunication, telephone systems, among others. In this work, we consider a $M/G/1$ retrial queue with an unreliable server with random vacations and two types of primary customers, persistent and impatient. This model involves the unreliability of the server, which can be subject to physical breakdowns and takes into account the correctives maintenances for restoring the service when a failure occurs. On the other hand, we consider random vacations, which can model the preventives maintenances for improving system performances and preventing breakdowns. We give the necessary and sufficient stability condition of the system. Then, we obtain the joint probability distribution of the server state and the number of customers in orbit and derive the more useful performance measures analytically. Moreover, we also analyze the busy period of the system. Finally, we derive the stability condition and the generating function of the stationary distribution of the number of customers in the system when there is no vacations and impatient customers, and when there is no vacations, server failures and impatient customers.

Keywords: modeling, retrial queue, unreliable server, vacation, stochastic analysis

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Authors: P. Singh, S. Mittal

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Stability of slope in Chamoli Distt. near River Alaknanda in Uttarakhand is essential to safeguard the infrastructure of the slope where a dam is proposed to be built near this slope. Every year the areas near the slope have been facing severe landslides (small or big) due to intensive precipitation inflicting substantial damages as per Geological Survey of India records. The stability analysis of the slope under static and pseudo static conditions are presented in this study by using FEM software PHASE2. As per the earthquake zonation map of India, the slope is found in zone V, and hence, pseudo static stability of slope has been performed considering pseudo static analysis. For analysing the slope Mohr-Coulomb shear strength criteria is adopted for soil material and self-drilling anchors are modelled as bolts with parameters like modulus of elasticity, diameter of anchors and peak pull-out resistance of the anchors with the soil present there. The slope is found to be unstable under pseudo static conditions with computed factor of safety= 0.93. Stability is provided to the slope by using Self Drilling Anchors (SDA) which gives factor of safety= 1.15 under pseudo static condition.

Keywords: FEM, pseudo static, self-drilling anchors, slope stability

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Authors: Moustafa Osman

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Modeling of air pollutants from the accidental release is performed for quantifying the impact of industrial facilities into the ambient air. The mathematical methods are requiring for the prediction of the accidental scenario in probability of failure-safe mode and analysis consequences to quantify the environmental damage upon human health. The initial statement of mitigation plan is supporting implementation during production and maintenance periods. In a number of mathematical methods, the flow rate at which gaseous and liquid pollutants might be accidentally released is determined from various types in term of point, line and area sources. These emissions are integrated meteorological conditions in simplified stability parameters to compare dispersion coefficients from non-continuous air pollution plumes. The differences are reflected in concentrations levels and greenhouse effect to transport the parcel load in both urban and rural areas. This research reveals that the elevation effect nearby buildings with other structure is higher 5 times more than open terrains. These results are agreed with Sutton suggestion for dispersion coefficients in different stability classes.

Keywords: air pollutants, dispersion modeling, GIS, health effect, urban planning

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Authors: Bina Kumari, Subir K. Sarkar, Pradipta Bandyopadhyay

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The autocorrelation function of the density fluctuation is studied in each of the two phases in a Gibbs Ensemble Monte Carlo (GEMC) simulation of the problem of phase separation for a square well potential with various values of its range. We find that the normalized autocorrelation function is described very well as a linear combination of an exponential function with a time scale τ₂ and a stretched exponential function with a time scale τ₁ and an exponent α. Dependence of (α, τ₁, τ₂) on the parameters of the GEMC algorithm and the range of the square well potential is investigated and interpreted. We also analyse the issue of how to choose the parameters of the GEMC simulation optimally.

Keywords: autocorrelation function, density fluctuation, GEMC, simulation

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Authors: N. Chérif, T. Allaoui, M. Benasla, H. Chaib

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Industrialization and population growth are the prime factors for which the consumption of electricity is steadily increasing. Thus, to have a balance between production and consumption, it is necessary at first to increase the number of power plants, lines and transformers, which implies an increase in cost and environmental degradation. As a result, it is now important to have mesh networks and working close to the limits of stability in order to meet these new requirements. The transient stability studies involve large disturbances such as short circuits, loss of work or production group. The consequence of these defects can be very serious, and can even lead to the complete collapse of the network. This work focuses on the regulation means that networks can help to keep their stability when submitted to strong disturbances. The magnetic energy storage-based superconductor (SMES) comprises a superconducting coil short-circuited on it self. When such a system is connected to a power grid is able to inject or absorb the active and reactive power. This system can be used to improve the stability of power systems.

Keywords: short-circuit, power oscillations, multiband PSS, power system, SMES, transient stability

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Authors: M. Khalid, G. N. Singh

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In this paper, we have considered the problems of estimation for the population mean on current (second) occasion in two-occasion successive sampling under random non-response situations. Some modified exponential type estimators have been proposed and their properties are studied under the assumptions that the number of sampling unit follows a discrete distribution due to random non-response situations. The performances of the proposed estimators are compared with linear combinations of two estimators, (a) sample mean estimator for fresh sample and (b) ratio estimator for matched sample under the complete response situations. Results are demonstrated through empirical studies which present the effectiveness of the proposed estimators. Suitable recommendations have been made to the survey practitioners.

Keywords: modified exponential estimator, successive sampling, random non-response, auxiliary variable, bias, mean square error

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Authors: Margareth E. Bolla, Ludfi Djakfar, Achmad Wicaksono

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The increase in the number of motorcycle users in Indonesia is in line with the increase in accidents involving motorcycles. Several previous studies have shown that humans are the biggest factor causing accidents, and the driver's personality factor will affect his behavior on the road. This study was conducted to see how a person's personality traits will affect the probability of having an accident while driving. The Big Five Inventory (BFI) questionnaire and the Honda Riding Trainer (HRT) simulator were used as measuring tools, while the analysis carried out was logistic regression analysis. The results of the descriptive analysis of the respondent's personality based on the BFI show that the majority of drivers have the dominant character of neuroticism (34%), while the smallest group is the driver with the dominant type of openness character (6%). The percentage of motorists who were not involved in an accident was 54%. The results of the logistic regression analysis form a mathematical model as follows Y = -3.852 - 0.288 X1 + 0.596 X2 + 0.429 X3 - 0.386 X4 - 0.094 X5 + 0.436 X6 + 0.162 X7, where the results of hypothesis testing indicate that the variables openness, conscientiousness, extraversion, agreeableness, neuroticism, history of traffic accidents and age at starting driving did not have a significant effect on the probability of a motorcyclist being involved in an accident.

Keywords: accidents, BFI, probability, simulator

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