Search results for: electric vehicle load forecasting

Authors: R. Ramesh, K. K. Shivaraman

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The main aim of this paper is to handle the energy requirement in an efficient manner by merging the advanced digital communication and control technologies for smart grid applications. In order to reduce user home load during peak load hours, utility applies several incentives such as real-time pricing, time of use, demand response for residential customer through smart meter. However, this method provides inconvenience in the sense that user needs to respond manually to prices that vary in real time. To overcome these inconvenience, this paper proposes a convolutional neural network (CNN) with k-means clustering machine learning model which have ability to forecast energy requirement in short term, i.e., hour of the day or day of the week. By integrating our proposed technique with home energy management based on Bluetooth low energy provides predicted value to user for scheduling appliance in advanced. This paper describes detail about CNN configuration and k-means clustering algorithm for short-term energy forecasting.

Keywords: convolutional neural network, fuzzy logic, k-means clustering approach, smart home energy management

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Authors: K. Urukundu, K. A. Aravind, Pradeep M. Nirgude, K. Sandhya

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Transmission of bulk power over a long distance through HVDC transmission lines is gaining importance. This is because the transfer of bulk power through HVDC, from generating stations to load centers over long distances is more economical. However, these HVDC transmission lines create environmental and interference effects under the right of way of the line due to the ionization of the surrounding atmosphere in the vicinity of HVDC lines. The measurement of ground-level electric field and ionic current density is essential for the evaluation of human effects due to electromagnetic interference of the HVDC transmission line. In this paper, experimental laboratory results of the ground-level electric field under the miniature model of 800 kV monopole HVDC line of length 8 meters are presented in lateral configuration with different heights of the conductor from the ground plane. The results are compared with the simulated test results obtained through Finite Element based software.

Keywords: bundle, conductor, hexagonal, transmission line, ground-level electric field

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Authors: Mauricio E. Cruz, Ilse Cervantes, Manuel J. Fabela

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The evaluation of the maneuverability of road vehicles is generally carried out through the use of specialized computer programs due to the advantages they offer compared to the experimental method. These programs are based on purely geometric considerations of the characteristics of the vehicles, such as main dimensions, the location of the axles, and points of articulation, without considering parameters such as weight distribution and magnitude, tire properties, etc. In this paper, we address the problem of maneuverability in a semi-trailer truck to navigate urban streets, maneuvering yards, and parking lots, using the Ackerman principle to propose a kinematic model that, through geometric considerations, it is possible to determine the space necessary to maneuver safely. The model was experimentally validated by conducting maneuverability tests with an articulated vehicle. The measurements were made through a GPS that allows us to know the position, trajectory, and speed of the vehicle, an inertial motion unit (IMU) that allows measuring the accelerations and angular speeds in the semi-trailer, and an instrumented steering wheel that allows measuring the angle of rotation of the flywheel, the angular velocity and the torque applied to the flywheel. To obtain the steering angle of the tires, a parameterization of the complete travel of the steering wheel and its equivalent in the tires was carried out. For the tests, 3 different angles were selected, and 3 turns were made for each angle in both directions of rotation (left and right turn). The results showed that the proposed kinematic model achieved 95% accuracy for speeds below 5 km / h. The experiments revealed that that tighter maneuvers increased significantly the space required and that the vehicle maneuverability was limited by the size of the semi-trailer. The maneuverability was also tested as a function of the vehicle load and 3 different load levels we used: light, medium, and heavy. It was found that the internal turning radii also increased with the load, probably due to the changes in the tires' adhesion to the pavement since heavier loads had larger contact wheel-road surfaces. The load was found as an important factor affecting the precision of the model (up to 30%), and therefore I should be considered. The model obtained is expected to be used to improve maneuverability through a robust control system.

Keywords: articuled vehicle, experimental validation, kinematic model, maneuverability, semi-trailer truck

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Authors: Mohd Imtiaz S, Saurabh Jain, Pothiraj K.

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In today’s highly competitive passenger vehicle market, comfortable driving experience is one of the key parameters significantly weighed by the customer. Smooth ride and handling of the vehicle with exceptionally reliable wheel end solution is a paramount requirement in passenger Sports Utility Vehicle (SUV) vehicles subjected to challenging terrains and loads with rigid rear drive axle configuration. Traditional wheel-end bearing systems in passenger segment rigid rear drive axle utilizes the semi-floating layout, which imparts vertical bending loads and torsion to the axle shafts. The wheel-end bearing is usually a Single or Double Row Deep-Groove Ball Bearing (DRDGBB) or Double Row Angular Contact Ball Bearing (DRACBB). This solution is cost effective and simple in architecture. However, it lacks effectiveness against the heavy loads subjected to a SUV vehicle, especially the axial trust at high-speed cornering. This paper describes the solution of Double Row Taper Roller Bearing (DRTRB) wheel-end for a SUV vehicle in the rigid rear drive axle and improvement in terms of maximizing its load carrying capacity along with better reliability in terms of axial thrust in high-speed cornering. It describes the advantage of geometry of DRTRB over DRDGBB and DRACBB highlighting contact and load flow. The paper also highlights the vehicle level considerations affecting the B10 life of the bearing system for better selection of the DRTRB wheel-ends systems. This paper also describes real time vehicle level results along with theoretical improvements.

Keywords: axial thrust, b10 life, deep-groove ball bearing, taper roller bearing, semi-floating layout.

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Authors: Jaejeogn Kim, Jeongmin Hong, Jungin Lee

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The Hydrogen Storage System Management Unit (HMU) is a controller that manages hydrogen charging and storage. It detects hydrogen leaks and tank pressure and temperature, calculates the charging concentration and remaining amount, and controls the opening and closing of the hydrogen tank valve. Since this role is an important part of the vehicle behavior and stability of Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEV), verifying the HMU controller is an essential part. To perform verification under various conditions, it is necessary to increase time efficiency based on an automated verification environment and increase the reliability of the controller by applying numerous test cases. To this end, we introduce the HMU controller automation verification method by applying the HILS environment and an automation test program with the ASAM XIL standard.

Keywords: HILS, ASAM, fuel cell electric vehicle, automation test, hydrogen storage system

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Authors: H. Mekki, A. Djerioui, S. Zeghlache, L. Chrifi-Alaoui

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Induction motor (IM)Induction motor (IM) are nowadays widely used in industrial applications specially in electric vehicles (EVs) and traction locomotives, due to their high efficiency high speed and lifetime. However, since EV motors are easily influenced by un-certainties parameter variations and external load disturbance, both robust control techniques have received considerable attention during the past few decades. This paper present a robust controller design based sliding mode control (SMC) and high gain flux observer (HGO) for induction motor (IM) based Electric Vehicles (EV) drives. This control technique is obtained by the combination between the field oriented and the sliding mode control strategy and present remarkable dynamic performances just as a good robustness with respect to EV drives load torque. A high gain flux observer is also presented and associated in order to design sensorless control by estimating the rotor flux only using measurements of the stator voltages and currents. Simulations results are provided to evaluate the consistency and to show the effectiveness of the proposed SMC strategy also the performance of the HGO for Electric Vehicles system are nowadays widely used in industrial applications specially in electric vehicles (EVs) and traction locomotives, due to their high efficiency high speed and lifetime. However, since EV motors are easily influenced by un-certainties parameter variations and external load disturbance, both robust control techniques have received considerable attention during the past few decades. This paper present a robust controller design based sliding mode control (SMC) and high gain flux observer (HGO) for induction motor (IM) based Electric Vehicles (EV) drives. This control technique is obtained by the combination between the field oriented and the sliding mode control strategy and present remarkable dynamic performances just as a good robustness with respect to EV drives load torque. A high gain flux observer is also presented and associated in order to design sensorless control by estimating the rotor flux only using measurements of the stator voltages and currents. Simulations results are provided to evaluate the consistency and to show the effectiveness of the proposed SMC strategy also the performance of the HGO for Electric Vehicles system.

Keywords: electric vehicles, sliding mode control, induction motor drive, high gain observer

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Authors: Aaron Huber, Manoj Karwa

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Floods, heat waves, drought, wildfires, tornadoes and other environmental disasters are a snapshot of looming national problems that can create increasing demands on the national grid. With nearly 500,000 school buses on the road and the environmental protection agency (EPA) providing nearly $1B for electric school buses, there is a solution for this national issue. Bidirectional batteries in electric school buses enable a future proof solution to sustain the power grid during adverse environmental conditions and other periods of high demand. School buses have larger batteries than standard electric vehicles. When they are not transporting students, these buses can spend peak solar hours parked and plugged into bi-directional direct current fast chargers (DCFC). A partnership with Highland Electric, Proterra and Rhombus enabled over 7 MWh of energy servicing Massachusetts and Vermont grids. The buses were part of a vehicle to grid (V2G) program with National Grid and Green Mountain Power that can charge an average American home for one month with a single bus. V2G infrastructure enables school systems to future proof their charging strategies, strengthen their local grids and can create additional revenue streams with their EV fleets. A bidirectional ecosystem with Highland, Proterra and Rhombus can enable grid resiliency or the ability to withstand power outages caused by excessive demands, natural disasters or rogue nation's attacks with no loss of service. A fleet of school buses is a standalone resilient asset that can be accessed across a city to keep its citizens safe without having any toxic fumes. Nearly 95% of all school buses across USA are powered by diesel internal combustion engines. Diesel exhaust has been classified as a human carcinogen, and it can lead to and exacerbate respiratory conditions. Bidirectional school buses and chargers enable energy justice by providing backup power in case of emergencies or high demand for marginalized communities and aim to make energy more accessible, affordable, clean, and democratically managed.

Keywords: V2G, vehicle to grid, electric buses, eBuses, DC fast chargers, DCFC

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Authors: Yuzhi Cai

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In this paper, we discuss a Bayesian approach to quantile autoregressive (QAR) time series model estimation and forecasting. Together with a combining forecasts technique, we then predict USD to GBP currency exchange rates. Combined forecasts contain all the information captured by the fitted QAR models at different quantile levels and are therefore better than those obtained from individual models. Our results show that an unequally weighted combining method performs better than other forecasting methodology. We found that a median AR model can perform well in point forecasting when the predictive density functions are symmetric. However, in practice, using the median AR model alone may involve the loss of information about the data captured by other QAR models. We recommend that combined forecasts should be used whenever possible.

Keywords: combining forecasts, MCMC, predictive density functions, quantile forecasting, quantile modelling

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Authors: Bouneua Khamphilavanh, Toshihiko Masui

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The penetration of EV (electric vehicle) technology in Lao road transportation, in this study, was analyzed by using the AIM/CGE [Laos] model. The computable general equilibrium (CGE) model was developed by the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) team. In line with the increase of the number of road vehicles, the energy demand in the transport sector has been gradually increased which resulted in a large amount of budget spent for importing fossil fuels during the last decade, and a high carbon dioxide emission from the transport sector, hence the aim of this research is to analyze the impact of EVs penetration on economic and CO₂ emission in short-term, middle-term, and long-term. By the year 2050, the expected gross domestic product (GDP) value, due to Laos will spend more budget for importing the EV, will be gradually lost up to one percent. The cumulative CO₂ emission from 2020 to 2050 in BAU case will be 12,000 GgCO₂eq, and those in the EV mitigation case will be 9,300 GgCO₂eq, which accounting for likely 77% cumulative CO₂ emission reduction in the road transport sector by introducing the EV technology.

Keywords: GDP, CO₂ mitigation, CGE model, EV technology, transport

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Authors: Abdollah Kavousi Fard

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This paper addresses the optimal scheduling of hybrid reconfigurable microgrids considering hybrid electric vehicle charging demands. A stochastic framework based on unscented transform to model the high uncertainties of renewable energy sources including wind turbine and photovoltaic panels, as well as the hybrid electric vehicles’ charging demand. In order to get to the optimal scheduling, the network reconfiguration is employed as an effective tool for changing the power supply path and avoiding possible congestions. The simulation results are analyzed and discussed in three different scenarios including coordinated, uncoordinated and smart charging demand of hybrid electric vehicles. A typical grid-connected microgrid is employed to show the satisfying performance of the proposed method.

Keywords: microgrid, renewable energy sources, reconfiguration, optimization

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Authors: Mejri Achref

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This paper proposes an energy management strategy for an electrical hybrid vehicle which is composed of a Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM) fuel cell and a supercapacitor storage device. In this paper, the mathematical model for the proposed power train, comprising the PEM Fuel Cell, supercapacitor, boost converter, inverter, and vehicular structure, was modeled in MATLAB/Simulink. The proposed algorithm is evaluated for the Highway Fuel Economy Test (HWFET) driving cycle. The obtained results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed energy management strategy in reduction of hydrogen consumption.

Keywords: proton exchange membrane fuel cell, hybrid vehicle, hydrogen consumption, energy management strategy

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Authors: Abhishek Sharma, Arnab Banerjee

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The research is intended to study the solar electric propulsion (SEP) technology for planetary missions. The main benefits of using solar electric propulsion for such missions are shorter flight times, more frequent target accessibility and the use of a smaller launch vehicle than that required by a comparable chemical propulsion mission. Energized by electric power from on-board solar arrays, the electrically propelled system uses 10 times less propellant than conventional chemical propulsion system, yet the reduced fuel mass can provide vigorous power which is capable of propelling robotic and crewed missions beyond the Lower Earth Orbit (LEO). The various thrusters used in the SEP are gridded ion thrusters and the Hall Effect thrusters. The research is solely aimed to study the ion thrusters and investigate the complications related to it and what can be done to overcome the glitches. The ion thrusters are used because they are found to have a total lower propellant requirement and have substantially longer time. In the ion thrusters, the anode pushes or directs the incoming electrons from the cathode. But the anode is not maintained at a very high potential which leads to divergence. Divergence leads to the charges interacting against the surface of the thruster. Just as the charges ionize the xenon gases, they are capable of ionizing the surfaces and over time destroy the surface and hence contaminate it. Hence the lifetime of thruster gets limited. So a solution to this problem is using substances which are not easy to ionize as the surface material. Another approach can be to increase the potential of anode so that the electrons don’t deviate much or reduce the length of thruster such that the positive anode is more effective. The aim is to work on these aspects as to how constriction of the deviation of charges can be done by keeping the input power constant and hence increase the lifetime of the thruster. Predominantly ring cusp magnets are used in the ion thrusters. However, the study is also intended to observe the effect of using solenoid for producing micro-solenoidal magnetic field apart from using the ring cusp magnetic field which are used in the discharge chamber for prevention of interaction of electrons with the ionization walls. Another foremost area of interest is what are the ways by which power can be provided to the Solar Electric Propulsion Vehicle for lowering and boosting the orbit of the spacecraft and also provide substantial amount of power to the solenoid for producing stronger magnetic fields. This can be successfully achieved by using the concept of Electro-dynamic tether which will serve as a power source for powering both the vehicle and the solenoids in the ion thruster and hence eliminating the need for carrying extra propellant on the spacecraft which will reduce the weight and hence reduce the cost of space propulsion.

Keywords: electro-dynamic tether, ion thruster, lifetime of thruster, solar electric propulsion vehicle

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Authors: W. H. Wan Zakiyatussariroh, A. A. Nasuhar, W. Y. Wan Fairos, Z. A. Nazatul Shahreen

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Forecasting dengue incidence in a population can provide useful information to facilitate the planning of the public health intervention. Many studies on dengue cases in Malaysia were conducted but are limited in modeling the outbreak and forecasting incidence. This article attempts to propose the most appropriate time series model to explain the behavior of dengue incidence in Malaysia for the purpose of forecasting future dengue outbreaks. Several seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models were developed to model Malaysia’s number of dengue incidence on weekly data collected from January 2001 to December 2011. SARIMA (2,1,1)(1,1,1)52 model was found to be the most suitable model for Malaysia’s dengue incidence with the least value of Akaike information criteria (AIC) and Bayesian information criteria (BIC) for in-sample fitting. The models further evaluate out-sample forecast accuracy using four different accuracy measures. The results indicate that SARIMA (2,1,1)(1,1,1)52 performed well for both in-sample fitting and out-sample evaluation.

Keywords: time series modeling, Box-Jenkins, SARIMA, forecasting

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Authors: Lorenzo Petrucci

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This paper is intended to give insight into the potential use of small-scale off-grid trigeneration systems powered by biogas generated in a dairy farm. The off-grid plant object of analysis comprises a dual-fuel Genset as well as electrical and thermal storage equipment and an adsorption machine. The loads are the different apparatus used in the dairy farm, a household where the workers live and a small electric vehicle whose batteries can also be used as a power source in case of emergency. The insertion in the plant of an adsorption machine is mainly justified by the abundance of thermal energy and the simultaneous high cooling demand associated with the milk-chilling process. In the evaluated operational scenario, our research highlights the importance of prioritizing specific small loads which cannot sustain an interrupted supply of power over time. As a consequence, a photovoltaic and thermal panel is included in the plant and is tasked with providing energy independently of potentially disruptive events such as engine malfunctioning or scarce and unstable supplies of fuels. To efficiently manage the plant an energy dispatch strategy is created in order to control the flow of energy between the power sources and the thermal and electric storages. In this article we elaborate on models of the equipment and from these models, we extract parameters useful to build load-dependent profiles of the prime movers and storage efficiencies. We show that under reasonable assumptions the analysis provides a sensible estimate of the generated energy. The simulations indicate that a Diesel Generator sized to a value 25% higher than the total electrical peak demand operates 65% of the time below the minimum acceptable load threshold. To circumvent such a critical operating mode, dump loads are added through the activation and deactivation of small resistors. In this way, the excess of electric energy generated can be transformed into useful heat. The combination of PVT and electrical storage to support the prioritized load in an emergency scenario is evaluated in two different days of the year having the lowest and highest irradiation values, respectively. The results show that the renewable energy component of the plant can successfully sustain the prioritized loads and only during a day with very low irradiation levels it also needs the support of the EVs’ battery. Finally, we show that the adsorption machine can reduce the ice builder and the air conditioning energy consumption by 40%.

Keywords: hybrid power plants, mathematical modeling, off-grid plants, renewable energy, trigeneration

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Authors: Suchitra Sivakumar, Hajime Shingyouchi, Toshinori Okajima, Kyohei Yamaguchi, Jin Kusaka

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The progressing need for powertrain electrification calls for more accurate and reliable simulation models. A battery pack serves as the most vital component for energy storage in an electrified powertrain. Hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) do not behave the same way as they age, and there are several environmental factors that account for the degradation of the battery on a system level. Therefore, in this work, a battery model was proposed to study the state of charge (SOC) variation and the internal dynamic changes that contribute to aging and performance degradation in HEV batteries. An equivalent circuit battery model (ECM) is built using MATLAB Simulink to investigate the output characteristics of the lithium-ion battery. The ECM comprises of circuit elements like a voltage source, a series resistor and a parallel RC network connected in series. A parameter estimation study is conducted on the ECM to study the dependencies of the circuit elements with the state of charge (SOC) and the terminal voltage of the battery. The battery model is extended to simulate the temperature dependence of the individual battery cell and the battery pack with the environment. The temperature dependence model accounts for the heat loss due to internal resistance build up in the battery pack during charging, discharging, and due to atmospheric temperature. The model was validated for a lithium-ion battery pack with an independent drive cycle showing a voltage accuracy of 4% and SOC accuracy of about 2%.

Keywords: battery model, hybrid electric vehicle, lithium-ion battery, thermal model

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Authors: Shalaka Kadam, Dinesh Apte, Sagar Mainkar

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The life cycle of products is becoming shorter and shorter due to increased competition in market, shorter product development time and increased product diversity. Short life cycles are normal in retail industry, style business, entertainment media, and telecom and semiconductor industry. The subject of accurate forecasting for demand of short lifecycle products is of special enthusiasm for many researchers and organizations. Due to short life cycle of products the amount of historical data that is available for forecasting is very minimal or even absent when new or modified products are launched in market. The companies dealing with such products want to increase the accuracy in demand forecasting so that they can utilize the full potential of the market at the same time do not oversupply. This provides the challenge to develop a forecasting model that can forecast accurately while handling large variations in data and consider the complex relationships between various parameters of data. Many statistical models have been proposed in literature for forecasting time series data. Traditional time series forecasting models do not work well for short life cycles due to lack of historical data. Also artificial neural networks (ANN) models are very time consuming to perform forecasting. We have studied the existing models that are used for forecasting and their limitations. This work proposes an effective and powerful forecasting approach for short life cycle time series forecasting. We have proposed an approach which takes into consideration different scenarios related to data availability for short lifecycle products. We then suggest a methodology which combines statistical analysis with structured judgement. Also the defined approach can be applied across domains. We then describe the method of creating a profile from analogous products. This profile can then be used for forecasting products with historical data of analogous products. We have designed an application which combines data, analytics and domain knowledge using point-and-click technology. The forecasting results generated are compared using MAPE, MSE and RMSE error scores. Conclusion: Based on the results it is observed that no one approach is sufficient for short life-cycle forecasting and we need to combine two or more approaches for achieving the desired accuracy.

Keywords: forecast, short life cycle product, structured judgement, time series

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Authors: Zhang Tianping, Jia Yanhui, Li Juan, Yang Le, Yang Hao, Yang Wei, Sun Xiaojing, Shi Kai, Li Xingda, Sun Yunkui

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Lanzhou Institute of Physics (LIP) is the major supplier of electric propulsion subsystems for Chinese satellite platforms. The development statuses of these electric propulsion subsystems were summarized including the LIPS-200 ion electric propulsion subsystem (IEPS) for DFH-3B platform, the LIPS-300 IEPS for DFH-5 and DFH-4SP platform, the LIPS-200+ IEPS for DFH-4E platform and near-earth asteroid exploration spacecraft, the LIPS-100 IEPS for small satellite platform, the LHT-100 hall electric propulsion subsystem (HEPS) for flight test on XY-2 satellite, the LHT-140 HEPS for large LEO spacecraft, the LIPS-400 IEPS for deep space exploration mission and other EPS for other Chinese spacecraft.

Keywords: ion electric propulsion, hall electric propulsion, satellite platform, LIP

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Authors: Y. Ghiassi-Farrokhfal

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The number of electric vehicles (EVs) is increasing worldwide. Replacing gas fueled cars with EVs reduces carbon emission. However, the extensive energy consumption of EVs stresses the energy systems, requiring non-green sources of energy (such as gas turbines) to compensate for the new energy demand caused by EVs in the energy systems. To make EVs even a greener solution for the future energy systems, new EV charging stations are equipped with solar PV panels and batteries. This will help serve the energy demand of EVs through the green energy of solar panels. To ensure energy availability, solar panels are combined with batteries. The energy surplus at any point is stored in batteries and is used when there is not enough solar energy to serve the demand. While EV charging stations equipped with solar panels and batteries are green and ecologically optimal, they might not be financially viable solutions, due to battery prices. To make the system viable, we should size the battery economically and operate the system optimally. This is, in general, a challenging problem because of the stochastic nature of the EV arrivals at the charging station, the available solar energy, and the battery operating system. In this work, we provide a mathematical model for this problem and we compute the return on investment (ROI) of such a system, which is designed to be ecologically and financially optimal. We also quantify the minimum required investment in terms of battery and solar panels along with the operating strategy to ensure that a charging station has enough energy to serve its EV demand at any time.

Keywords: solar energy, battery storage, electric vehicle, charging stations

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Authors: Serkan Aras, Emrah Gulay

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Combining various forecasting models is an important tool for researchers to attain more accurate forecasts. A great number of papers have shown that selecting single models as dissimilar models, or methods based on different information as possible leads to better forecasting performances. However, there is not a certain rule regarding the number of single models to be used in any combining methods. This study focuses on determining the optimal or near optimal number for single models with the help of statistical tests. An extensive experiment is carried out by utilizing some well-known time series data sets from diverse fields. Furthermore, many rival forecasting methods and some of the commonly used combining methods are employed. The obtained results indicate that some statistically significant performance differences can be found regarding the number of the single models in the combining methods under investigation.

Keywords: combined forecast, forecasting, M-competition, time series

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Authors: Wanchalerm Patanacharoenwong, Panaya Sudta, Prachya Bumrungkun

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The paper focuses on the development of a system that combines Internet of Things (IoT) technologies and deep learning algorithms for anomaly detection in residential Electric Vehicle (EV) charging in smart cities. With the increasing number of EVs, ensuring efficient and reliable charging systems has become crucial. The aim of this research is to develop an integrated IoT and deep learning system for detecting anomalies in residential EV charging and enhancing EV load profiling and event detection in smart cities. This approach utilizes IoT devices equipped with infrared cameras to collect thermal images and household EV charging profiles from the database of Thailand utility, subsequently transmitting this data to a cloud database for comprehensive analysis. The methodology includes the use of advanced deep learning techniques such as Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) algorithms. IoT devices equipped with infrared cameras are used to collect thermal images and EV charging profiles. The data is transmitted to a cloud database for comprehensive analysis. The researchers also utilize feature-based Gaussian mixture models for EV load profiling and event detection. Moreover, the research findings demonstrate the effectiveness of the developed system in detecting anomalies and critical profiles in EV charging behavior. The system provides timely alarms to users regarding potential issues and categorizes the severity of detected problems based on a health index for each charging device. The system also outperforms existing models in event detection accuracy. This research contributes to the field by showcasing the potential of integrating IoT and deep learning techniques in managing residential EV charging in smart cities. The system ensures operational safety and efficiency while also promoting sustainable energy management. The data is collected using IoT devices equipped with infrared cameras and is stored in a cloud database for analysis. The collected data is then analyzed using RNN, LSTM, and feature-based Gaussian mixture models. The approach includes both EV load profiling and event detection, utilizing a feature-based Gaussian mixture model. This comprehensive method aids in identifying unique power consumption patterns among EV owners and outperforms existing models in event detection accuracy. In summary, the research concludes that integrating IoT and deep learning techniques can effectively detect anomalies in residential EV charging and enhance EV load profiling and event detection accuracy. The developed system ensures operational safety and efficiency, contributing to sustainable energy management in smart cities.

Keywords: cloud computing framework, recurrent neural networks, long short-term memory, Iot, EV charging, smart grids

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Authors: Tim Steinhaus, Christian Beidl

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Urban air quality and climate protection are two major challenges for future mobility systems. Despite the steady reduction of pollutant emissions from vehicles over past decades, local immission load within cities partially still reaches heights, which are considered hazardous to human health. Although traffic-related emissions account for a major part of the overall urban pollution, modeling the exact interaction remains challenging. In this paper, a novel approach for the determination of the emission-immission interaction on the basis of neural network modeling for traffic induced NO2-immission load within a near-traffic hot-spot scenario is presented. In a detailed sensitivity analysis, the significance of relevant influencing variables on the prevailing NO2 concentration is initially analyzed. Based on this, the generation process of the model is described, in which not only environmental influences but also the vehicle fleet composition including its associated segment- and certification-specific real driving emission factors are derived and used as input quantities. The validity of this approach, which has been presented in the past, is re-examined in this paper using updated data on vehicle emissions and recent immission measurement data. Within the framework of a final scenario analysis, the future development of the immission load is forecast for different developments in the vehicle fleet composition. It is shown that immission levels of less than half of today’s yearly average limit values are technically feasible in hot-spot situations.

Keywords: air quality, emission, emission-immission-interaction, immission, NO2, zero impact

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Authors: Hanbhin Ryu, Ilkwon Yun

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Automotive industry targets to provide an improvement in safety and convenience through realizing fully autonomous vehicle. For partially realizing fully automated driving, Current vehicles already feature varieties of advanced driver assistance system (ADAS) for safety and infotainment systems for the driver’s convenience. This paper presents Cloud Connected Vehicle (CCV) which connected vehicles with cloud data center via the access network to control the vehicle for achieving next autonomous driving form and describes its features. This paper also describes the shortcoming of the existing In-Vehicle Network (IVN) to be a next generation IVN of CCV and organize the 802.3 Ethernet, the next generation of IVN, related research issue to verify the feasibility of using Ethernet. At last, this paper refers to additional considerations to adopting Ethernet-based IVN for CCV.

Keywords: autonomous vehicle, cloud connected vehicle, ethernet, in-vehicle network

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Authors: Syed M. Rizvi, Yiqing Meng, Simon Iwnicki

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With an increased demand in the land cargo industry, it is predicted that the freight trade will rise to a record $1.1 trillion in revenue and volume in the following years to come. This increase is mainly driven by the e-commerce model ever so popular in the consumer market. Many innovative ideas have stemmed from this demand and change in lifestyle likes of which include e-bike cargo and drones. Rural and urban areas are facing air quality challenges to keep pollution levels in city centre to a minimum. For this purpose, this paper presents the design and implementation of a non-linear PID control system, employing a micro-controller and low cost sensing technique, for controlling an electrical motor based cargo vehicle with various loads, to follow a leading vehicle (bike). Within using this system, the cargo vehicle will have no load influence on the bike rider on different gradient conditions, such as hill climbing. The system is being integrated with a microcontroller to continuously measure several parameters such as relative displacement between bike and the cargo vehicle and gradient of the road, and process these measurements to create a portable controller capable of controlling the performance of electrical vehicle without the need of a PC. As a result, in the case of carrying 180kg of parcel weight, the cargo vehicle can maintain a reasonable spacing over a short length of sensor travel between the bike and itself.

Keywords: cargo, e-bike, microcontroller, embedded system, nonlinear pid, self-adaptive, inertial measurement unit (IMU)

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Authors: Aleksandra Aleksandrovna Filimonova, Lev Sergeevich Kazarinov, Tatyana Aleksandrovna Barbasova

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A method of effective planning and control of industrial facility energy consumption is offered. The method allows to optimally arrange the management and full control of complex production facilities in accordance with the criteria of minimal technical and economic losses at the forecasting control. The method is based on the optimal construction of the power efficiency characteristics with the prescribed accuracy. The problem of optimal designing of the forecasting model is solved on the basis of three criteria: maximizing the weighted sum of the points of forecasting with the prescribed accuracy; the solving of the problem by the standard principles at the incomplete statistic data on the basis of minimization of the regularized function; minimizing the technical and economic losses due to the forecasting errors.

Keywords: energy consumption, energy efficiency, energy management system, forecasting model, power efficiency characteristics

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Authors: Elena Tkachenko, Elena Rogova, Daria Koval

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The paper examines the ways of cash flows forecasting in the dynamic external environment. The so-called new reality in economy lowers the predictability of the companies’ performance indicators due to the lack of long-term steady trends in external conditions of development and fast changes in the markets. The traditional methods based on the trend analysis lead to a very high error of approximation. The macroeconomic situation for the last 10 years is defined by continuous consequences of financial crisis and arising of another one. In these conditions, the instruments of forecasting on the basis of fuzzy sets show good results. The fuzzy sets based models turn out to lower the error of approximation to acceptable level and to provide the companies with reliable cash flows estimation that helps to reach the financial stability. In the paper, the applicability of the model of cash flows forecasting based on fuzzy logic was analyzed.

Keywords: cash flow, industrial enterprise, forecasting, fuzzy sets

Procedia PDF Downloads 171

Authors: Caner Koc, Dilara Gerdan Koc, Emrah Saka, H. Ibrahim Karagol

Abstract:

The use of pesticides in agricultural activities is the most harmful to the environment and farmers' health, and it also has the greatest input prices, along with fertilizers. In this study, an electric, electrostatically charged, autonomous agricultural robot was developed, modeled, and prototyped and manufactured. It allows for sensitive pesticide applications with variable levels, has controllable spray nozzles, and uses camera distance sensors to detect and spray into tree canopies. The created prototype was produced with flexibility in mind. Two stages of prototype manufacture were completed. The initial stage involved designing and producing the flexible primary body of the autonomous vehicle. Detachable hanger assemblies are employed so that the main body robot can perform a variety of agricultural tasks. The design of the spraying devices and their fitting to the autonomous vehicle was completed as the second stage of the prototype. The built prototype spraying robot's itinerary was planned using the free, open-source program Mission Planner. PX4, telemetry, and RTK GPS are used to maneuver the autonomous car along the designated path. To avoid potential obstructions, the robot uses ultrasonic and lidar sensors. The developed autonomous vehicle's energy needs are intended to be met entirely by electric batteries. In the event that the batteries run out of power, the sockets are set up to be recharged both by using the generator and the main power source through the specifically constructed panel.

Keywords: autonomous agricultural robot, pesticide, smart farming, spraying, variable rate application

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Authors: H. Taylan Selamlar, I. Yavuz, G. Yapar

Abstract:

It is difficult to make predictions especially about the future and making accurate predictions is not always easy. However, better predictions remain the foundation of all science therefore the development of accurate, robust and reliable forecasting methods is very important. Numerous number of forecasting methods have been proposed and studied in the literature. There are still two dominant major forecasting methods: Box-Jenkins ARIMA and Exponential Smoothing (ES), and still new methods are derived or inspired from them. After more than 50 years of widespread use, exponential smoothing is still one of the most practically relevant forecasting methods available due to their simplicity, robustness and accuracy as automatic forecasting procedures especially in the famous M-Competitions. Despite its success and widespread use in many areas, ES models have some shortcomings that negatively affect the accuracy of forecasts. Therefore, a new forecasting method in this study will be proposed to cope with these shortcomings and it will be called ATA method. This new method is obtained from traditional ES models by modifying the smoothing parameters therefore both methods have similar structural forms and ATA can be easily adapted to all of the individual ES models however ATA has many advantages due to its innovative new weighting scheme. In this paper, the focus is on modeling the trend component and handling seasonality patterns by utilizing classical decomposition. Therefore, ATA method is expanded to higher order ES methods for additive, multiplicative, additive damped and multiplicative damped trend components. The proposed models are called ATA trended models and their predictive performances are compared to their counter ES models on the M3 competition data set since it is still the most recent and comprehensive time-series data collection available. It is shown that the models outperform their counters on almost all settings and when a model selection is carried out amongst these trended models ATA outperforms all of the competitors in the M3- competition for both short term and long term forecasting horizons when the models’ forecasting accuracies are compared based on popular error metrics.

Keywords: accuracy, exponential smoothing, forecasting, initial value

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Authors: Ioannis P. Panapakidis, Marios N. Moschakis

Abstract:

With the continuous increment of smart meter installations across the globe, the need for processing of the load data is evident. Clustering-based load profiling is built upon the utilization of unsupervised machine learning tools for the purpose of formulating the typical load curves or load profiles. The most commonly used algorithm in the load profiling literature is the K-means. While the algorithm has been successfully tested in a variety of applications, its drawback is the strong dependence in the initialization phase. This paper proposes a novel modified form of the K-means that addresses the aforementioned problem. Simulation results indicate the superiority of the proposed algorithm compared to the K-means.

Keywords: clustering, load profiling, load modeling, machine learning, energy efficiency and quality

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Authors: Andres F. Ramirez, Carlos F. Valencia

Abstract:

The increasing interest in renewable energies strategies application and the path for diminishing the use of carbon related energy sources have encouraged the development of novel strategies for integration of solar energy into the electricity network. A correct inclusion of the fluctuating energy output of a photovoltaic (PV) energy system into an electric grid requires improvements in the forecasting and simulation methodologies for solar energy potential, and the understanding not only of the mean value of the series but the associated underlying stochastic process. We present a methodology for synthetic generation of solar irradiance (shortwave flux) and air temperature bivariate time series based on copula functions to represent the cross-dependence and temporal structure of the data. We explore the advantages of using this nonlinear time series method over traditional approaches that use a transformation of the data to normal distributions as an intermediate step. The use of copulas gives flexibility to represent the serial variability of the real data on the simulation and allows having more control on the desired properties of the data. We use discrete zero mass density distributions to assess the nature of solar irradiance, alongside vector generalized linear models for the bivariate time series time dependent distributions. We found that the copula autoregressive methodology used, including the zero mass characteristics of the solar irradiance time series, generates a significant improvement over state of the art strategies. These results will help to better understand the fluctuating nature of solar energy forecasting, the underlying stochastic process, and quantify the potential of a photovoltaic (PV) energy generating system integration into a country electricity network. Experimental analysis and real data application substantiate the usage and convenience of the proposed methodology to forecast solar irradiance time series and solar energy across northern hemisphere, southern hemisphere, and equatorial zones.

Keywords: copula autoregressive, solar irradiance forecasting, solar energy forecasting, time series generation

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Authors: Ilaria Lucrezia Amerise

Abstract:

Electricity markets throughout the world have undergone substantial changes. Accurate, reliable, clear and comprehensible modeling and forecasting of different variables (loads and prices in the first instance) have achieved increasing importance. In this paper, we describe the actual state of the art focusing on reg-SARMA methods, which have proven to be flexible enough to accommodate the electricity price/load behavior satisfactory. More specifically, we will discuss: 1) The dichotomy between point and interval forecasts; 2) The difficult choice between stochastic (e.g. climatic variation) and non-deterministic predictors (e.g. calendar variables); 3) The confrontation between modelling a single aggregate time series or creating separated and potentially different models of sub-series. The noteworthy point that we would like to make it emerge is that prices and loads require different approaches that appear irreconcilable even though must be made reconcilable for the interests and activities of energy companies.

Keywords: interval forecasts, time series, electricity prices, reg-SARIMA methods

Procedia PDF Downloads 105