Search results for: earnings forecasts

Authors: T. Elrazaz

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This paper examines accrual and real earnings management by publicly listed targets around mergers and acquisitions. Prior literature shows that earnings management around mergers and acquisitions can have a significant economic impact because of the associated wealth transfers among stakeholders. More importantly, acting on behalf of their shareholders or pursuing their self-interests, managers of both targets and acquirers may be equally motivated to manipulate earnings prior to an acquisition to generate higher gains for their shareholders or themselves. Building on the grounds of information asymmetry, agency conflicts, stewardship theory, and the revelation principle, this study addresses the question of whether takeover targets employ accrual and real earnings management in the periods prior to the announcement of Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A). Additionally, this study examines whether acquirers are able to detect targets’ earnings management, and in response, adjust the acquisition premium paid in order not to face the risk of overpayment. This study uses an aggregate accruals approach in estimating accrual earnings management as proxied by estimated abnormal accruals. Additionally, real earnings management is proxied for by employing widely used models in accounting and finance literature. The results of this study indicate that takeover targets manipulate their earnings using accruals in the second year with an earnings release prior to the announcement of the M&A. Moreover, in partitioning the sample of targets according to the method of payment used in the deal, the results are restricted only to targets of stock-financed deals. These results are consistent with the argument that targets of cash-only or mixed-payment deals do not have the same strong motivations to manage their earnings as their stock-financed deals counterparts do additionally supporting the findings of prior studies that the method of payment in takeovers is value relevant. The findings of this study also indicate that takeover targets manipulate earnings upwards through cutting discretionary expenses the year prior to the acquisition while they do not do so by manipulating sales or production costs. Moreover, in partitioning the sample of targets according to the method of payment used in the deal, the results are restricted only to targets of stock-financed deals, providing further robustness to the results derived under the accrual-based models. Finally, this study finds evidence suggesting that acquirers are fully aware of the accrual-based techniques employed by takeover targets and can unveil such manipulation practices. These results are robust to alternative accrual and real earnings management proxies, as well as controlling for the method of payment in the deal.

Keywords: accrual earnings management, acquisition premium, real earnings management, takeover targets

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Authors: Mohammad Namazi, Mohammad Sadeghzadeh Maharluie

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Predicting earnings management is vital for the capital market participants, financial analysts and managers. The aim of this research is attempting to respond to this query: Is there a significant difference between the regression model and neural networks’ models in predicting earnings management, and which one leads to a superior prediction of it? In approaching this question, a Linear Regression (LR) model was compared with two neural networks including Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), and Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN). The population of this study includes 94 listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) market from 2003 to 2011. After the results of all models were acquired, ANOVA was exerted to test the hypotheses. In general, the summary of statistical results showed that the precision of GRNN did not exhibit a significant difference in comparison with MLP. In addition, the mean square error of the MLP and GRNN showed a significant difference with the multi variable LR model. These findings support the notion of nonlinear behavior of the earnings management. Therefore, it is more appropriate for capital market participants to analyze earnings management based upon neural networks techniques, and not to adopt linear regression models.

Keywords: earnings management, generalized linear regression, neural networks multi-layer perceptron, Tehran stock exchange

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Authors: An-an Chiu, Shaio Yan Huang, Ling-Na Chen, Wei-Hua Lin

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Research has primarily focused on listed companies, less is done regarding small and medium-sized enterprises. Under the authorities' support, Taipei Exchange (TPEx) started Go Incubation Board for Startup and Acceleration Firms (GISA) in January 2014. This platform is designed to help small-sized innovative companies grow and to enter the capital market in the future. This research yield insight into earnings management activities around seasoned equity offerings (SEO) based on Taiwan’s GISA firms and the effectiveness of external corporate governance. Data for the study come from the GISA Market Observation Post System from January 2014 to December 2016. The result finds that GISA firms prone to upward accrual-based earnings management during SEO to avoid long-term negative consequences. Especially, firms with paid-in capital more than NT$ 30 million, higher fundraising amounts, or smaller-sized firms, tend to increase discretionary accruals. Finally, consistent with prior literature, CPA firms effectively serve as the role of external corporate governances on mitigating earnings management.

Keywords: GISA, earnings　management, CPA, seasoned equity offerings

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Authors: Hussaini Bala

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There are different opinions in the literature on the relationship between Audit Committee characteristics and earnings management. The mix of opinions makes the direction of their relationship ambiguous. This study investigated the relationship between Audit Committee characteristics and earnings management of listed food and beverages Firms in Nigeria. The study covered the period of six years from 2007 to 2012. Data for the study were extracted from the Firms’ annual reports and accounts. After running the OLS regression, a robustness test was conducted for the validity of statistical inferences. The dependent variable was generated using two steps regression in order to determine the discretionary accrual of the sample Firms. Multiple regression was employed to run the data of the study using Random Model. The results from the analysis revealed a significant association between audit committee characteristics and earnings management of the Firms. While audit committee size and committees’ financial expertise showed an inverse relationship with earnings management, committee’s independence, and frequency of meetings are positively and significantly related to earnings management. In line with the findings, the study recommended among others that listed food and beverages Firms in Nigeria should strictly comply with the provision of Companies and Allied Matters Act (CAMA) and SEC Code of Corporate Governance on the issues regarding Audit Committees. Regulators such as SEC should increase the minimum number of Audit Committee members with financial expertise and also have a statutory position on the maximum number of Audit Committees meetings, which should not be greater than four meetings in a year as SEC code of corporate governance is silent on this.

Keywords: audit committee, earnings management, listed Food and beverages size, leverage, Nigeria

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Authors: Ugbede Onalo, Mohd Lizam, Ahmad Kaseri

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In view of dearth of studies on changes in accounting standards and banks’ earnings management particularly in the context of emerging economies, and the recent Malaysia and Nigeria change from their respective local GAAP to IFRS, this study deemed it overwhelming to investigate the effects of the switch on banks’ earnings management focusing on LLP as the manipulative device. This study employed judgmental sampling to select twenty eight banks- eight Malaysia and twenty Nigeria banks as sample covering period 2008-2013. To provide an empirical research setting in pursuant of the objective of this study, the study period is further partitioned into pre (2008, 2009, 2010) and post (2011, 2012, 2013) IFRS adoption periods. This study consistent with previous studies models a LLP regression model to investigate specific discretionary accruals of banks. Findings suggest that Malaysia and Nigeria banks individually use LLP to manage reported earnings more prior to IFRS implementation. Comparative overall results evidenced that the pre IFRS adoption or domestic GAAP era for both Malaysia and Nigeria sample banks is associated with higher prevalent earnings management through LLP than the corresponding post IFRS adoption era in diverse magnitude but in favour of Malaysia banks for both periods. With results demonstrating that IFRS adoption is linked to lower earnings management via LLP, this study therefore recommends the global adoption of IFRS as reporting framework. This study also endorses that Nigeria banks embrace and borrow a leaf from Malaysia banks good corporate governance practices.

Keywords: accounting standards, IFRS, FRS, SAS, LLP, earnings management

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Authors: Faustina Masocha, Vusani Moyo

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For decades, dividend announcements have been presumed to contain important signals about the future prospects of companies. Similarly, the same has been presumed about management earnings announcements. Despite both dividend and earnings announcements being considered informative, a number of researchers questioned their credibility and found both to contain short-term signals. Pertaining to dividend announcements, some authors argued that although they might contain important information that can result in changes in share prices, which consequently results in the accumulation of abnormal returns, their degree of informativeness is less compared to other signaling tools such as earnings announcements. Yet, this claim in favor has been refuted by other researchers who found the effect of earnings to be transitory and of little value to shareholders as indicated by the little abnormal returns earned during the period surrounding earnings announcements. Considering the above, it is apparent that both dividends and earnings have been hypothesized to have a signaling impact. This prompts one to question which between these two signaling tools is more informative. To answer this question, two follow-up questions were asked. The first question sought to determine the event which results in the most effect on share prices, while the second question focused on the event that influenced trading volume the most. To answer the first question and evaluate the effect that each of these events had on share prices, an event study methodology was employed on a sample made up of the top 10 JSE-listed companies for data collected from 2012 to 2019 to determine if shareholders gained abnormal returns (ARs) during announcement dates. The event that resulted in the most persistent and highest amount of ARs was considered to be more informative. Looking at the second follow-up question, an investigation was conducted to determine if either dividends or earnings announcements influenced trading patterns, resulting in abnormal trading volumes (ATV) around announcement time. The event that resulted in the most ATV was considered more informative. Using an estimation period of 20 days and an event window of 21 days, and hypothesis testing, it was found that announcements pertaining to the increase of earnings resulted in the most ARs, Cumulative Abnormal Returns (CARs) and had a lasting effect in comparison to dividend announcements whose effect lasted until day +3. This solidifies some empirical arguments that the signaling effect of dividends has become diminishing. It was also found that when reported earnings declined in comparison to the previous period, there was an increase in trading volume, resulting in ATV. Although dividend announcements did result in abnormal returns, they were lesser than those acquired during earnings announcements which refutes a number of theoretical and empirical arguments that found dividends to be more informative than earnings announcements.

Keywords: dividend signaling, event study methodology, information content of earnings, signaling theory

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Authors: Michael McCann

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Managerial theories propose that, in joint stock companies, executives may be tempted to waste excess free cash on unprofitable projects to keep control of resources. In order to conceal their projects' poor performance, they may seek to engage in earnings management. On the one hand, managers may manipulate earnings upwards in order to post ‘good’ performances and safeguard their position. On the other, since managers pursuit of unrewarding investments are likely to lead to low long-term profitability, managers will use negative accruals to reduce current year’s earnings, smoothing earnings over time in order to conceal the negative effects. Agency models argue that boards of directors are delegated by shareholders to ensure that companies are governed properly. Part of that responsibility is ensuring the reliability of financial information. Analyses of the impact of board characteristics, particularly board independence on the misuse of free cash flow and earnings management finds conflicting evidence. However, existing characterizations of board independence do not account for such directors gaining firm-specific knowledge over time, influencing their monitoring ability. Further, there is little analysis of the influence of the relative experience of independent directors and executives on decisions surrounding the use of free cash. This paper contributes to this literature regarding the heterogeneous characteristics of boards by investigating the influence of independent director tenure on earnings management and the relative tenures of independent directors and Chief Executives. A balanced panel dataset comprising 51 companies across 11 annual periods from 2005 to 2015 is used for the analysis. In each annual period, firms were classified as conducting earnings management if they had discretionary accruals in the bottom quartile (downwards) and top quartile (upwards) of the distributed values for the sample. Logistical regressions were conducted to determine the marginal impact of independent board tenure and a number of control variables on the probability of conducting earnings management. The findings indicate that both absolute and relative measures of board independence and experience do not have a significant impact on the likelihood of earnings management. It is the level of free cash flow which is the major influence on the probability of earnings management. Higher free cash flow increases the probability of earnings management significantly. The research also investigates whether board monitoring of earnings management is contingent on the level of free cash flow. However, the results suggest that board monitoring is not amplified when free cash flow is higher. This suggests that the extent of earnings management in companies is determined by a range of company, industry and situation-specific factors.

Keywords: corporate governance, boards of directors, agency theory, earnings management

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Authors: Ikechukwu Ndu

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This study examines the econometric modeling of the relation between discretionary accrual earnings management, International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), and certain corporate governance factors with regard to listed Nigerian non-financial firms. Although discretionary accrual earnings management is a well-known and global problem that has an adverse impact on users of the financial statements, its relationship with IFRS and corporate governance is neither adequately researched nor properly systematically investigated in Nigeria. The dearth of research in the relation between discretionary accrual earnings management, IFRS and corporate governance in Nigeria has made it difficult for academics, practitioners, government setting bodies, regulators and international bodies to achieve a clearer understanding of how discretionary accrual earnings management relates to IFRS and certain corporate governance characteristics. This is the first study to the author’s best knowledge to date that makes interesting research contributions that significantly add to the literature of discretionary accrual earnings management and its relation with corporate governance and IFRS pertaining to the Nigerian context. A comprehensive review is undertaken of the literature of discretionary total accrual earnings management, IFRS, and certain corporate governance characteristics as well as the data, models, methodologies, and different estimators used in the study. Secondary financial statement, IFRS, and corporate governance data are sourced from Bloomberg database and published financial statements of Nigerian non-financial firms for the period 2004 to 2016. The methodology uses both the total and working capital accrual basis. This study has a number of interesting preliminary findings. First, there is a negative relationship between the level of discretionary accrual earnings management and the adoption of IFRS. However, this relationship does not appear to be statistically significant. Second, there is a significant negative relationship between the size of the board of directors and discretionary accrual earnings management. Third, CEO Separation of roles does not constrain earnings management, indicating the need to preserve relationships, personal connections, and maintain bonded friendships between the CEO, Chairman, and executive directors. Fourth, there is a significant negative relationship between discretionary accrual earnings management and the use of a Big Four firm as an auditor. Fifth, including shareholders in the audit committee, leads to a reduction in discretionary accrual earnings management. Sixth, the debt and return on assets (ROA) variables are significant and positively related to discretionary accrual earnings management. Finally, the company size variable indicated by the log of assets is surprisingly not found to be statistically significant and indicates that all Nigerian companies irrespective of size engage in discretionary accrual management. In conclusion, this study provides key insights that enable a better understanding of the relationship between discretionary accrual earnings management, IFRS, and corporate governance in the Nigerian context. It is expected that the results of this study will be of interest to academics, practitioners, regulators, governments, international bodies and other parties involved in policy setting and economic development in areas of financial reporting, securities regulation, accounting harmonization, and corporate governance.

Keywords: discretionary accrual earnings management, earnings manipulation, IFRS, corporate governance

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Authors: Seungmin Chee

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This paper investigates which of the two arguments, conservatism or liquidation option, is a true underlying driver of the asymmetric slope coefficient result regarding the association between earnings and returns. The analysis of the relation between earnings and returns in four mutually exclusive settings segmented by ‘profits vs. losses’ and ‘positive returns vs. negative returns’ suggests that liquidation option rather than conservatism is likely to cause the asymmetric slope coefficient result. Furthermore, this paper documents the temporal changes between Basu period (1963-1990) and post-Basu period (1990-2005). Although no significant change in degree of conservatism or value relevance of losses is reported, stronger negative relation between losses and positive returns is observed in the post-Basu period. Separate regression analysis of each quintile based on the rankings of price to sales ratio and book to market ratio suggests that the strong negative relation is driven by growth firms.

Keywords: conservatism, earnings, liquidation option, returns

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Authors: Wali Ullah, Muhammad Nishat

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The study investigates the extent to which the so called Nelson-Siegel model (DNS) and its extended version that accounts for time varying volatility (DNS-EGARCH) can optimally fit the yield curve and predict its future path in the context of an emerging economy. For the in-sample fit, both models fit the curve remarkably well even in the emerging markets. However, the DNS-EGARCH model fits the curve slightly better than the DNS. Moreover, both specifications of yield curve that are based on the Nelson-Siegel functional form outperform the benchmark VAR forecasts at all forecast horizons. The DNS-EGARCH comes with more precise forecasts than the DNS for the 6- and 12-month ahead forecasts, while the two have almost similar performance in terms of RMSE for the very short forecast horizons.

Keywords: yield curve, forecasting, emerging markets, Kalman filter, EGARCH

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Authors: Khaldoon G. Albitar, Hassan Y. Kikhia, Jin P. Zhang

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Since 2007, all companies listed on both Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange are required to prepare their consolidated financial statements in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). This study investigates the impact of adopting IFRS on accounting quality for a sample of listed on Chinese companies during the period 2003-2013 with sample of 10846 observations over a four-year period before and a five-year period after the adoption of IFRS. This study tests whether the level of earnings management is significantly lower after the adoption of IFRS, and reported earnings is more value relevant during the IFRS period by using the Ohlson model and Jones model, as modified by Dechow. The empirical results show that accounting quality improved with lower earnings management and higher value relevant after the adoption of IFRS in China. The current study contributes to the literature on IFRS adoption and earning quality in two ways. First, As most of the existing studies on earnings quality and IFRS have been conducted on data from the U.S and European countries, this study fills a gap in the existing literature by studying the effect of adoption of IFRS on earnings quality in an emerging market. Second, the findings of our study have important implications for policymakers, auditors, multinational firms, and users of financial reports. As the rapid growth of China's economy gains global recognition, the Chinese stock market is capturing the attention of international investor.

Keywords: international financial reporting standards (ifrs), accounting quality, earnings management, value relevance, china

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Authors: Leonie Jooste

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The main purpose of this article is to explore the ethical values of accounting students at Universities and Business Managers. Financial fraud (earnings management) is continuing to exist and published in literature and social media. However, irrespective of extensive publication, and academic research, financial fraud is still happening or still being committed. The student of today may be the manager in the future. In a study by Bruns and Merchant, the authors found that the morality of short-term earnings management was of little concern to researchers and accounting practitioners. However, in the light of increased financial frauds and failures, new and increased emphasis has been placed on the importance of the concepts of earnings quality, earnings management practices, and the inclusion of business ethics in accounting syllabi. This study uses a quantitative analysis related to the Bruns and Merchant survey of accounting students. 59 accounting students in the MENA area were surveyed in 2022 to measure their ethical values regarding earning management practices in organisations. The results of this survey were compared the surveys in 2013 to determine if courses in business ethics offered at the university influenced the perceptions of students on unethical behaviour in business practices. For the data analysis, the mean values and significant differences were calculated and compared. Overall, the results showed that there was hardly any significant difference between the two surveys.

Keywords: ethics, earnings management, corporate social responsibility, business courses.

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Authors: Francesco Paolone

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This paper investigates the role of Operating Cash Flow (OCF) and accruals in firm valuation analyzing financial statement information from the largest European companies and evaluating their relation to firm market value. Using a dataset of 500 largest European companies in 2018, the study investigates the relative value-relevance of equity, net income and operating cash flow (OCF). Findings show that the cash flow measure has the same explanatory power and intensity as equity and earnings to explain the market value. This study contributes to the debate on the value relevance of OCF incremental to book value and earnings. It also extends the literature, showing that OCF has information content (value relevance) superior to earnings and book value in the main European markets (Bepari et al., 2013). Finally, the study provides a support that accounting method choice may confuse investors, who have reduced confidence in accounting earnings and book value; in other words, nowadays European investors rely more on cash flows instead of accruals numbers.

Keywords: Cash Flow Statement, Value Relevance, Accounting, Financial Statement Analysis

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Authors: Apedzan Emmanuel Kighir

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This research investigates dividends smoothing among non-financial companies trading on the Nigerian Stock Exchange in an era of unclaimed dividends from 2004 to 2013. There has been a raging controversy among Regulatory Authorities, Company Executives, Registrars of Companies, Shareholders and the general public regarding the increasing incidence of unclaimed dividends in Nigeria. The objective of this study is to find out if corporate earnings management through dividends smoothing is implicated in unclaimed dividends among Nigerian non-financial firms. The research used panel data and employed Generalized Method of Moment as method of analysis. The research finds evidence of dividends-smoothing in this era of unclaimed dividends in Nigeria. The research concludes that dividends-smoothing is a trigger and red flag for unclaimed dividends, an output of earnings management. If earnings management and hence unclaimed dividends in Nigeria is allowed to continue, it will lead to great consequences to the investors and corporate policy of government. It is believed that the research will assist investors and government in making informed decisions regarding dividends policy in Nigeria.

Keywords: dividends smoothing, non financial companies, Nigerian stock exchange, unclaimed dividends, corporate earnings management

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Authors: Yuzhi Cai

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This talk presents a Bayesian approach to quantile autoregressive (QAR) time series model estimation and forecasting. We establish that the joint posterior distribution of the model parameters and future values is well defined. The associated MCMC algorithm for parameter estimation and forecasting converges to the posterior distribution quickly. We also present a combining forecasts technique to produce more accurate out-of-sample forecasts by using a weighted sequence of fitted QAR models. A moving window method to check the quality of the estimated conditional quantiles is developed. We verify our methodology using simulation studies and then apply it to currency exchange rate data. An application of the method to the USD to GBP daily currency exchange rates will also be discussed. The results obtained show that an unequally weighted combining method performs better than other forecasting methodology.

Keywords: combining forecasts, MCMC, quantile modelling, quantile forecasting, predictive density functions

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Authors: Redouane Larbi Boufeniza, Jing-Jia Luo

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This study assesses the suitability of deep learning (DL) for downscaling sea surface temperature (SST) over the Mediterranean Sea in the context of seasonal forecasting. We design a set of experiments that compare different DL configurations and deploy the best-performing architecture to downscale one-month lead forecasts of June–September (JJAS) SST from the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Climate Forecast System version 1.0 (NUIST-CFS1.0) for the period of 1982–2020. We have also introduced predictors over a larger area to include information about the main large-scale circulations that drive SST over the Mediterranean Sea region, which improves the downscaling results. Finally, we validate the raw model and downscaled forecasts in terms of both deterministic and probabilistic verification metrics, as well as their ability to reproduce the observed precipitation extreme and spell indicator indices. The results showed that the convolutional neural network (CNN)-based downscaling consistently improves the raw model forecasts, with lower bias and more accurate representations of the observed mean and extreme SST spatial patterns. Besides, the CNN-based downscaling yields a much more accurate forecast of extreme SST and spell indicators and reduces the significant relevant biases exhibited by the raw model predictions. Moreover, our results show that the CNN-based downscaling yields better skill scores than the raw model forecasts over most portions of the Mediterranean Sea. The results demonstrate the potential usefulness of CNN in downscaling seasonal SST predictions over the Mediterranean Sea, particularly in providing improved forecast products.

Keywords: Mediterranean Sea, sea surface temperature, seasonal forecasting, downscaling, deep learning

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Authors: Achsania Hendratmi, Nisful Laila, Fatin Fadhilah Hasib, Puji Sucia Sukmaningrum

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This study aims to compare and see the differences between Islamic bank in Indonesia and Islamic bank in Malaysia using RGEC method (Risk Profile, Good Corporate Governance, Earnings, and Capital). This study examines the comparison in business and social performance of eleven Islamic banks in Indonesia and fifteen Islamic banks in Malaysia. This research used quantitative approach and the collections of data was done by collecting all the annual reports of banks that has been created as a sample over the period 2011-2015. The test result of the Independent Samples T-test and Mann-Whitney Test showed there were differences in the business performance of Islamic Bank in Indonesia and Malaysia as seen from the aspect of Risk profile (FDR), GCG, and Earnings (ROA). Also, there were differences of business and social performance as seen from Earnings (ROE), Capital (CAR), and Sharia Conformity Indicator (PSR and ZR) aspects.

Keywords: business performance, Islamic banks, RGEC, social performance

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Authors: Syazreen N. Shair, Saiful A. Ishak, Aida Y. Yusof, Azizah Murad

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In this paper, we forecast age-specific Malaysian mortality rates and life expectancy at births by gender and ethnic groups including Malay, Chinese and Indian. Two mortality forecasting models are adopted the original Lee-Carter model and its recent modified version, the product ratio coherent model. While the first forecasts the mortality rates for each subpopulation independently, the latter accounts for the relationship between sub-populations. The evaluation of both models is performed using the out-of-sample forecast errors which are mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) for mortality rates and mean forecast errors (MFE) for life expectancy at births. The best model is then used to perform the long-term forecasts up to the year 2030, the year when Malaysia is expected to become an aged nation. Results suggest that in terms of overall accuracy, the product ratio model performs better than the original Lee-Carter model. The association of lower mortality group (Chinese) in the subpopulation model can improve the forecasts of high mortality groups (Malay and Indian).

Keywords: coherent forecasts, life expectancy at births, Lee-Carter model, product-ratio model, mortality rates

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Authors: Yu-Chen Wei, Yang-Cheng Lu, I-Chi Lin

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This study examines the impacts of news sentiment and press freedom on abnormal returns during the earnings announcement in greater China including the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Taiwan stock markets. The news sentiment ratio is calculated by using the content analysis of semantic orientation. The empirical results show that news released prior to the event date may decrease the cumulative abnormal returns prior to the earnings announcement regardless of whether it is released in China or Taiwan. By contrast, companies with optimistic financial news may increase the cumulative abnormal returns during the announcement date. Furthermore, the difference in terms of press freedom is considered in greater China to compare the impact of press freedom on abnormal returns. The findings show that, the freer the press is, the more negatively significant will be the impact of news on the abnormal returns, which means that the press freedom may decrease the ability of the news to impact the abnormal returns. The intuition is that investors may receive alternative news related to each company in the market with greater press freedom, which proves the efficiency of the market and reduces the possible excess returns.

Keywords: news, press freedom, Greater China, earnings announcement, abnormal returns

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Authors: Shazia Ali, Yves Mard, Éric Severin

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To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to have analyzed the impact of a) firm-specific product-market power and b) industry competition on earnings management behavior of European firms in distress versus healthy years while controlling for firm-level characteristics. We predicted a significant relationship between firms’ product market power and earnings management tools and their trade-off under the moderation effect of financial distress. We found that the firm-level market power hereinafter referred to as MP (proxied by the industry-adjusted Lerner Index) is positively associated with both real and accrual earnings management. However, MP is associated with a higher level of real earnings management compared to accrual earnings management in distress years compared to healthy years. On the other hand, industry product market power (representing low competition and proxied by the inverse of the total number of firms in an industry hereinafter referred to as NUMB) and firms product market power (proxied by firm market share hereinafter referred to as MS) are associated with lower inflationary accruals and higher deflationary accruals respectively. On the other hand, they are found to be linked with higher real earnings management in distress versus healthy years. When we divided the sample into small and big firms based on their respective industry-year median total assets, we found that all three measures of industry competition (Industry Median Lerner Index (hereinafter referred to as IMLI), NUMB, and Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (hereinafter referred to as HHI) indicate that small firms in low-competitive industries in financial distress are more likely to inflate their earnings through discretionary accruals. While big firms in this situation are more likely to lower the use of both inflationary and deflationary discretionary accruals as indicated by IMLI and HHI and trade-off accruals earnings management for real earnings management as indicated by NUMB. Moreover, IMLI and HHI did not show any interesting results when we divided the sample based on the firm Lerner Index/Market Power. However, the distressed firms with high market power (MP>industry median) are found to engage in income-decreasing discretionary accruals in low-competitive industries (high NUMB). Whereas firms with low market power in the same industry use downward discretionary accruals but inflate income using real activities (abnCFO). Our findings are robust across alternate measures of discretionary accruals and financial distress, such as the Altman Z-Score. The finding of the study is valuable for accounting standard setters, competition authorities, policymakers, and investors alike to help in informed decision-making.

Keywords: financial distress, earnings management, market competition

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Authors: Sana Masmoudi Mardassi, Yosra Makni Fourati

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Regulators highlight the importance of the Audit Committee (AC) as a key internal corporate governance mechanism. One of the most important roles of this committee is to oversee the financial reporting process. The purpose of this paper is to examine the link between the characteristics of an audit committee and the financial reporting quality by investigating whether the characteristics of audit committees are associated with improved financial reporting quality, especially the Real Earnings Management. In the current study, a panel data from 80 nonfinancial companies listed on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange during the period between 2010 and 2017 were used. To measure audit committee characteristics, four proxies have been used, specifically, audit committee independence, financial expertise, gender diversity and AC meetings. For this research, a linear regression model was used to identify the influence of a set of board characteristics of the audit committee on real earnings management after controlling for firm audit committee size, leverage, size, loss, growth and board size. This research provides empirical evidence of the association between audit committee independence, financial expertise, gender diversity and meetings and Real Earnings Management (REM) as a proxy of financial reporting quality. The study finds that independence and AC Gender diversity are strongly related to financial reporting quality. In fact, these two characteristics constrain REM. The results also suggest that AC- financial expertise reduces to some extent, the likelihood of engaging in REM. These conclusions provide support then to the audit committee requirement under the Dutch Corporate Governance Code rules regarding gender diversity and AC meetings.

Keywords: audit committee, financial expertise, independence, real earnings management

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Authors: Moriom Akter Mousumi, Spyridon Paparrizos, Fulco Ludwig

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Rice yield reduction due to climate change-induced disease occurrence is becoming a great concern for coastal farmers of Bangladesh. The development of participatory climate information services (CIS) based on farmers’ needs could implicitly facilitate farmers to get disease forecasts and make better decisions to manage diseases. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate how participatory climate information services assist coastal rice farmers to take up rice disease forecasts and better manage rice diseases by improving their informed decision-making. Through participatory approaches, we developed a tailor-made agrometeorological service through the DROP app to forecast rice diseases and manage them in advance. During farmers field schools (FFS) we communicated 7-day disease forecasts during face-to-face weekly meetings using printed paper and, messenger app derived from DROP app. Results show that the majority of the farmers understand disease forecasts through visualization, symbols, and text. The majority of them use disease forecast information directly from the DROP app followed by face-to-face meetings, messenger app, and printed paper. Farmers participation and engagement during capacity building training at FFS also assist them in making more informed decisions and improved management of diseases using both preventive measures and chemical measures throughout the rice cultivation period. We conclude that the development of participatory CIS and the associated capacity-building and training of farmers has increased farmers' understanding and uptake of disease forecasts to better manage of rice diseases. Participatory services such as the DROP app offer great potential as an adaptation option for climate-smart rice production under changing climatic conditions.

Keywords: participatory climate service, disease forecast, disease management, informed decision making, coastal Bangladesg

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Authors: Flavio Cordeiro Fontanella, Asla Medeiros e Sá, Moacyr Alvim Horta Barbosa da Silva

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In the present work, we analyse the performance of football results forecasting models. In order to do so, we have performed the data collection from eight different forecasting models during the 2021 Brazilian football season. First, we guide the analysis through visual representations of the data, designed to highlight the most prominent features and enhance the interpretation of differences and similarities between the models. We propose using a 2-simplex triangle to investigate visual patterns from the results forecasting models. Next, we compute the expected points for every team playing in the championship and compare them to the final league standings, revealing interesting contrasts between actual to expected performances. Then, we evaluate forecasts’ accuracy using the Ranked Probability Score (RPS); models comparison accounts for tiny scale differences that may become consistent in time. Finally, we observe that the Wisdom of Crowds principle can be appropriately applied in the context, driving into a discussion of results forecasts usage in practice. This paper’s primary goal is to encourage football forecasts’ performance discussion. We hope to accomplish it by presenting appropriate criteria and easy-to-understand visual representations that can point out the relevant factors of the subject.

Keywords: accuracy evaluation, Brazilian championship, football results forecasts, forecasting models, visual analysis

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Authors: T. Miková

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This paper analyzes the effect of a single uniform accounting rule on reporting quality by investigating the influence of IFRS on earnings management. This paper examines whether earnings management is reduced after IFRS adoption through the use of “loss avoidance thresholds”, a method that has been verified in earlier studies. This paper concentrates on two European countries: one that represents the continental code law tradition with weak protection of investors (France) and one that represents the Anglo-American common law tradition, which typically implies a strong enforcement system (the United Kingdom). The research investigates a sample of 526 companies (6822 firm-year observations) during the years 2000 – 2013. The results are different for the two jurisdictions. This study demonstrates that a single set of accounting standards contributes to better reporting quality and reduces the pervasiveness of earnings management in France. In contrast, there is no evidence that a reduction in earnings management followed the implementation of IFRS in the United Kingdom. Due to the fact that IFRS benefit France but not the United Kingdom, other political and economic factors, such legal system or capital market strength, must play a significant role in influencing the comparability and transparency cross-border companies’ financial statements. Overall, the result suggests that IFRS moderately contribute to the accounting quality of reported financial statements and bring benefit for stakeholders, though the role played by other economic factors cannot be discounted.

Keywords: accounting standards, earnings management, international financial reporting standards, loss avoidance, reporting quality

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Authors: Shehu Usman Hassan

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Published accounting information in financial statements are required to provide various users - shareholders, employees, suppliers, creditors, financial analysts, stockbrokers and government agencies – with timely and reliable information useful for making prudent, effective and efficient decisions. The widespread failure in the financial information quality has created the need to improve the financial information quality and to strengthen the control of managers by setting up good firms structures. This paper investigates firm attributes from perspective of structure, monitoring, performance elements of listed deposit money banks in Nigeria. The study adopted correlational research design with balanced panel data of 14 banks as sample of the study using multiple regression as a tool of analysis. The result reveals that firms attributes (leverage, profitability, liquidity, bank size and bank growth) has as significant influence on earnings quality of listed deposit money banks in Nigeria after the adoption of IFRS, while the pre period shows that the selected firm attributes has no significant impact on earnings quality. It is therefore concluded that the adoption of IFRS is right and timely.

Keywords: earnings quality, firm attributes, listed deposit money bank, Nigeria

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Authors: Giulia Leoni, Cristina Florio

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The paper aims to investigate the factors driving the increasing alignment of Italian earnings management (EM) research to US research on the same field. After characterizing the progressive similarity of Italian EM research with respect to US one by means of an historical comparison, the paper relies on a subsequent secondary source analysis to detect the possible causes of said alignment. Once identified that the alignment increased along three subsequent periods, the paper analyses and discusses this incremental similarity according to new institutional sociology (NIS) and highlights the presence of different combination of isomorphic pressures that help explaining this incremental similarity. The paper contributes to the institutional literature by providing evidence of isomorphism in academic research; it also contributes to accounting research by indicating the forces that are able to drive change and development in accounting research at national and international level. The paper also enlarges the explanatory value of NIS in alternative contexts, like academic accounting research.

Keywords: accounting research, earnings management, international comparison, Italy, new institutional sociology, US

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Authors: Muktar Haruna

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This research work examines the International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS) adoption and value relevance of earnings of listed consumer goods companies in the Nigerian. The population of the study comprises 22 listed consumer goods companies, out of which 15 were selected as sample size of the study. The scope of the study is a 12-year period covering from 2006 to 2018. Secondary data from the annual report of sampled companies were used, which consists of earnings per share (EPS), the book value of equity per share (BVE) as independent variables; firm size (FSZ) as a control variable, and market share price of sampled companies from Nigerian stock exchange as dependent variable. Multiple regressions were used to analyze the data. The results of the study showed that IFRS did not improve the value relevance of earnings after the adoption, which translates to a decrease in value relevance of accounting numbers in the post-adoption period. The major recommendation is that the Nigerian Reporting Council should ensure full compliance to all provisions of IFRS and provide uniformity in the presentation of non-current assets in the statement of financial position, where some present only net current assets leaving individual figures for current assets and liabilities invisible.

Keywords: IFRS, adoption, value relevance, earning per share, book value of equity per share

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Authors: Oliver Ikechukwu Inyiama, Boniface Uche Ugwuanyi

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The aim of the research is to evaluate the key financial performance indicators that help both managers and their shareholders of Nigerian Banks to determine the appropriate dividend payout to their ordinary shareholders in an accounting year. Profitability, total asset, and earnings of commercial banks were selected as key performance indicators in Nigeria Banking Sector. They represent the independent variables of the study while dividend per share is the proxy for the dividend paid on ordinary shares which represent the dependent variable. The effect of profitability, total asset and earnings on dividend per share were evaluated through the ordinary least square method of multiple regression analysis. Test for normality of frequency distribution was conducted through descriptive statistics such as Jacque Bera Statistic, skewness and kurtosis. Rate of dividend payout was subsequently applied as an alternate dependent variable to test for robustness of the earlier results. The 64% adjusted R-squared of the pooled data indicates that profitability, total asset, and earnings explain the variation in dividend per share during the period under research while the remaining 36% variation in dividend per share could be explained by changes in other variables not captured by this study as well as the error term. The study concentrated on four leading Nigeria Commercial Banks namely; First Bank of Nigeria Plc, GTBank Plc, United Bank for Africa Plc and Zenith International Bank Plc. Dividend per share was found to be positively affected by total assets and earnings of the commercial banks. However, profitability which was proxied by profit after tax had a negative effect on dividend per share. The implication of the findings is that commercial banks in Nigeria pay more dividend when they are having a dwindling fortune in order to retain the confidence of the shareholders provided their gross earnings and size is on the increase. Therefore, the management and board of directors of Nigeria commercial banks should apply decent marketing strategies to enhance earnings through investment in profitable ventures for an improved dividend payout rate.

Keywords: assets, banks, indicators, performance, profitability, shares

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Authors: Sana Masmoudi, Yosra Makni

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Regulators highlight the importance of the Audit Committee (AC) as a key internal corporate governance mechanism. One of the most important roles of this committee is to oversee the financial reporting process. The purpose of this paper is to examine the link between the characteristics of an audit committee and the financial reporting quality by investigating whether the formation of audit committees and their characteristics are associated with improved financial reporting quality. This study provides empirical evidence of the association between audit committee independence, financial expertise, gender diversity, and meetings and Real Earnings Management (REM) as a proxy of financial reporting quality. Using data from, with a sample of 80 companies listed on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange during 2010-2017, the study finds that independence and AC Gender diversity are strongly related to financial reporting quality. In fact, these two characteristics constrain REM. The results also suggest that AC-financial expertise reduces to some extent, the likelihood of engaging in REM. These conclusions provide support then to the audit committee requirement under the Dutch Corporate Governance Code rules regarding gender diversity and AC meetings.

Keywords: audit committee, financial expertise, independence, real earnings management

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Authors: Mujeeb Saif Mohsen Al-Absy, Ku Nor Izah Ku Ismail, Sitraselvi Chandren

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This study examines whether corporate governance (CG) mechanisms in firms that have a whistle-blowing policy (WHBLP) are more effective in constraining earnings management (EM), than those without. A sample of 288 Malaysian firms for the years 2013 to 2015, amounting to 864 firm-years were grouped into firms with and without WHBLP. Results show that for firms without WHBLP, the board chairman tenure would minimize EM activities. Meanwhile, for firms with WHBLP, board chairman independence, board chairman tenure, audit committee size, audit committee meeting and women in the audit committees are found to be associated with less EM activities. Further, it is found that ownership concentration and Big 4 auditing firms help to reduce EM activities in firms with WHBLP, while not in firms without WHBLP. Hence, functional and effective governance can be achieved by having a WHBLP, which is in line with agency and resource dependent theories. Therefore, this study suggests that firms should have a WHBLP in place, and policymakers should come up with enhanced criteria to strengthen the mechanisms of WHBLP.

Keywords: corporate governance, earnings management, whistle-blowing policy, audit committee, board of directors

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