Search results for: dynamical%20heterogeneity

Authors: Luis Gimeno, Rosmeri da Rocha, Raquel Nieto, Tercio Ambrizzi, Alex Ramos, Anita Drumond

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The transport of moisture from oceanic sources to the continents represents the atmospheric branch of the water cycle, forming the connection between evaporation from the ocean and precipitation over the continents. In this regard two large scale dynamical/meteorological structures appear to play a key role, namely Low Level Jet (LLJ) systems and Atmospheric Rivers (ARs). The former are particularly important in tropical and subtropical regions; the latter is mostly confined to extratropical regions. A key question relates to the anomalies in the transport of moisture observed during natural hazards related to extremes of precipitation (i.e., drought or wet spells). In this study we will be focused on these two major atmospheric moisture transport mechanisms (LLJs and ARs) and its role in precipitation extreme events (droughts and wet spells) in the Amazonia paying particular attention to i) intensification (decreasing) of moisture transport by them and its role in wet spells (droughts), and ii) changes in their positions and occurrence with associated flooding and wet spells.

Keywords: droughts, wet spells, amazonia, LLJs, atmospheric rivers

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Authors: Nini Johana Marín Rodríguez, William Fernando Oquendo Patino

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In this work, we model a coupled system where we explore the effects of steady and random behavior on a linear system like an extension of the classic Strogatz model. This is exemplified by modeling a couple love dynamics as a linear system of two coupled differential equations and studying its stability for four types of lovers chosen as CC='Cautious- Cautious', OO='Only other feelings', OP='Opposites' and RR='Romeo the Robot'. We explore the effects of, first, introducing saturation, and second, adding a random variation to one of the CC-type lover, which will shape his character by trying to model how its variability influences the dynamics between love and hate in couple in a long run relationship. This work could also be useful to model other kind of systems where interactions can be modeled as linear systems with external or internal random influence. We found the final results are not easy to predict and a strong dependence on initial conditions appear, which a signature of chaos.

Keywords: differential equations, dynamical systems, linear system, love dynamics

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Authors: Justin Reverdi, Sixin Zhang, Serge Gratton, Said Aoues, Thomas Pellegrini

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In Vapor Cycle Systems, the flow sensor plays a key role in different monitoring and control purposes. However, physical sensors can be expensive, inaccurate, heavy, cumbersome, or highly sensitive to vibrations, which is especially problematic when embedded into an aircraft. The conception of a virtual sensor based on other standard sensors is a good alternative. In this paper, a data-driven model using a Convolutional Neural Network is proposed to estimate the flow of the compressor. To fit the model to our dataset, we tested different loss functions. We show in our application that a Dynamic Time Warping based loss function called DILATE leads to better dynamical performance than the vanilla mean squared error (MSE) loss function. DILATE allows choosing a trade-off between static and dynamic performance.

Keywords: deep learning, dynamic time warping, vapor cycle system, virtual sensor

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Authors: Luis Andrey Fajardo Fajardo

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We are immersed in complex systems. The human brain, the galaxies, the snowflakes are examples of complex systems. An area of interest in Complex systems is the chaos theory. This revolutionary field of science presents different ways of study than determinism and reductionism. Here is where in junction with the Nonlinear DSP, chaos theory offer valuable techniques that establish a link between time series and complex theory in terms of complex networks, so that, the study of signals can be explored from the graph theory. Recently, some people had purposed a method to transform time series in graphs, but no one had developed a suitable implementation in Python with signals extracted from Chaotic Systems or Complex systems. That’s why the implementation in Python of an existing method to transform one dimensional chaotic signals from time domain to graph domain and some measures that may reveal information not extracted in the time domain is proposed.

Keywords: Python, complex systems, graph theory, dynamical systems

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Authors: Avan Al-Saffar, Eun-Jin Kim

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Both the logistic growth model and the gompertz growth model are used to describe growth processes. Both models driven by perturbations in different cases are investigated using information theory as a useful measure of sustainability and the variability. Specifically, we study the effect of different oscillatory modulations in the system's parameters on the evolution of the system and Probability Density Function (PDF). We show the maintenance of the initial conditions for a long time. We offer Fisher information analysis in positive and/or negative feedback and explain its implications for the sustainability of population dynamics. We also display a finite amplitude solution due to the purely fluctuating growth rate whereas the periodic fluctuations in negative feedback can lead to break down the system's self-regulation with an exponentially growing solution. In the cases tested, the gompertz and logistic systems show similar behaviour in terms of information and sustainability although they develop differently in time.

Keywords: dynamical systems, fisher information, probability density function (pdf), sustainability

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Authors: Ding Jue, Li Jiahua, Lei Zhidi, Weng Peifen, Li Xiaowei

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With the rapid development of national modern industry, people begin to pay attention to environmental pollution and harm caused by industrial dust. Based on above, a numerical study on the dedusting technology of industrial environment was conducted. The dynamic models of multicomponent particles collision and coagulation, breakage and deposition are developed, and the interaction of water droplet and aerosol particle in 2-Dimension flow field was researched by Eulerian-Lagrangian method and Multi-Monte Carlo method. The effects of the droplet scale, movement speed of droplet and the flow field structure on scavenging efficiency were analyzed. The results show that under the certain condition, 30μm of droplet has the best scavenging efficiency. At the initial speed 1m/s of droplets, droplets and aerosol particles have more time to interact, so it has a better scavenging efficiency for the particle.

Keywords: water droplet, aerosol particle, collision and coagulation, multi-monte carlo method

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Authors: Haowei Chen, Kaiqi Xiong

Abstract:

This paper aims to answer how malware will propagate in Wireless Mesh Networks (WMNs) and how communication radius and distributed density of nodes affects the process of spreading. The above analysis is essential for devising network-wide strategies to counter malware. We answer these questions by developing an improved dynamical system that models malware propagation in the area where nodes were uniformly distributed. The proposed model captures both the spatial and temporal dynamics regarding the malware spreading process. Equilibrium and stability are also discussed based on the threshold of the system. If the threshold is less than one, the infected nodes disappear, and if the threshold is greater than one, the infected nodes asymptotically stabilize at the endemic equilibrium. Numerical simulations are investigated about communication radius and distributed density of nodes in WMNs, which allows us to draw various insights that can be used to guide security defense.

Keywords: Bluetooth security, malware propagation, wireless mesh networks, stability analysis

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Authors: Wael M. Elawady, Mohamed F. Asar, Amany M. Sarhan

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This paper adopts a continuous sliding mode control scheme for trajectory tracking control of robot manipulators with structured and unstructured uncertain dynamics and external disturbances. In this algorithm, the equivalent control in the conventional sliding mode control is replaced by a PID control action. Moreover, the discontinuous switching control signal is replaced by a continuous proportional-integral (PI) control term such that the implementation of the proposed control algorithm does not require the prior knowledge of the bounds of unknown uncertainties and external disturbances and completely eliminates the chattering phenomenon of the conventional sliding mode control approach. The closed-loop system with the adopted control algorithm has been proved to be globally stable by using Lyapunov stability theory. Numerical simulations using the dynamical model of robot manipulators with modeling uncertainties demonstrate the superiority and effectiveness of the proposed approach in high speed trajectory tracking problems.

Keywords: PID, robot, sliding mode control, uncertainties

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Authors: Shuting Ji, Yueming Zhang, Jing Zhao

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The output error of the globoidal cam mechanism can be considered as a relevant indicator of mechanism performance, because it determines kinematic and dynamical behavior of mechanical transmission. Based on the differential geometry and the rigid body transformations, the mathematical model of surface geometry of the globoidal cam is established. Then we present the analytical expression of the output error (including the transmission error and the displacement error along the output axis) by considering different manufacture and assembly errors. The effects of the center distance error, the perpendicular error between input and output axes and the rotational angle error of the globoidal cam on the output error are systematically analyzed. A globoidal cam mechanism which is widely used in automatic tool changer of CNC machines is applied for illustration. Our results show that the perpendicular error and the rotational angle error have little effects on the transmission error but have great effects on the displacement error along the output axis. This study plays an important role in the design, manufacture and assembly of the globoidal cam mechanism.

Keywords: globoidal cam mechanism, manufacture error, transmission error, automatic tool changer

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Authors: Tomas Menard

Abstract:

The design of control-law for engineering systems has been investigated for many decades. While many results are concerned with continuous systems with continuous output, nowadays, many controlled systems have to transmit their output measurements through network, hence making it discrete-time. But it is well known that the sampling of a system whose control-law is based on the continuous output may render the system unstable, especially when this sampling period is long compared to the system dynamics. The control design then has to be adapted in order to cope with this issue. In this paper, we consider systems which can be modeled as double integrator with uncertainty on the input since many mechanical systems can be put under such form. We present a control scheme based on an observer using only discrete time measurement and which provides continuous time estimation of the state, combined with a continuous control law, which stabilized a system with second-order dynamics even in the presence of uncertainty. It is further shown that arbitrarily long sampling periods can be dealt with properly setting the control scheme parameters.

Keywords: dynamical system, control law design, sampled output, observer design

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Authors: Amadou Banda Ndione, Charles Awono Onana

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In this paper the compartmental approach is applied to build a macroeconomic model characterized by countries. We consider a total of N countries that are subdivided into three compartments according to their economic status: D(t) denotes the compartment of developing countries at time t, E(t) stands for the compartment of emerging countries at time t while A(t) represents advanced countries at time t. The model describes the process of economic development and includes the notion of openness through collaborations between countries. Two delays appear in this model to describe the average time necessary for collaborations between countries to become efficient for their development process. Our model represents the different stages of development. It further gives the conditions under which a country can change its economic status and demonstrates the short-term positive effect of openness on economic growth. In addition, we investigate bifurcation by considering the delay as a bifurcation parameter and examine the onset and termination of Hopf bifurcations from a positive equilibrium. Numerical simulations are provided in order to illustrate the theoretical part and to support discussion.

Keywords: compartmental systems, delayed dynamical system, economic development, fiscal policy, hopf bifurcation

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Authors: Alica Miller

Abstract:

A semiflow is a triple consisting of a Hausdorff topological space $X$, a commutative topological monoid $T$ and a continuous monoid action of $T$ on $X$. The acting monoid $T$ is usually either the discrete monoid $\N_0$ of nonnegative integers (in which case the semiflow can be defined as a pair $(X,f)$ consisting of a phase space $X$ and a continuous function $f:X\to X$), or the monoid $\R_+$ of nonnegative real numbers (the so-called one-parameter monoid). However, it turns out that there are real-life situations where it is useful to consider the acting monoids that are a combination of discrete and continuous monoids. That, for example, happens, when we are observing certain dynamical system at discrete moments, but after some time realize that it would be beneficial to continue our observations in real time. The acting monoid in that case would be $T=\{0, t_0, 2t_0, \dots, (n-1)t_0\} \cup [nt_0,\infty)$ with the operation and topology induced from real numbers. This partly explains the motivation for the level of generality which is pursued in our research. We introduce the PSP monoids, which include all but ``pathological'' monoids, and most of our statements hold for them. The topic of our presentation are some recent results about chaos-related properties in semiflows, indecomposability and sensitivity of semiflows in the described general context.

Keywords: chaos, indecomposability, PSP monoids, semiflow, sensitivity

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Authors: Owolabi Kolade Matthew

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In this work, we investigate both the analytical and numerical studies of the dynamical model comprising of three species system. We analyze the linear stability of stationary solutions in the one-dimensional multi-system modeling the interactions of two predators and one prey species. The stability analysis has a lot of implications for understanding the various spatiotemporal and chaotic behaviors of the species in the spatial domain. The analysis results presented have established the possibility of the three interacting species to coexist harmoniously, this feat is achieved by combining the local and global analyzes to determine the global dynamics of the system. In the presence of diffusion, a viable exponential time differencing method is applied to multi-species nonlinear time-dependent partial differential equation to address the points and queries that may naturally arise. The scheme is described in detail, and justified by a number of computational experiments.

Keywords: asymptotically stable, coexistence, exponential time differencing method, global and local stability, predator-prey model, nonlinear, reaction-diffusion system

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Authors: DRIS Mohammed El-Amine, BOUNIF Abdelhamid

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This paper considers an experimental and numerical investigation of variable density in axisymmetric turbulent free jets. Special attention is paid to the study of the scalar dissipation rate. In this case, dynamic field equations are coupled to scalar field equations by the density which can vary by the thermal effect (jet heating). The numerical investigation is based on the first and second order turbulence models. For the discretization of the equations system characterizing the flow, the finite volume method described by Patankar (1980) was used. The experimental study was conducted in order to evaluate dynamical characteristics of a heated axisymmetric air flow using the Laser Doppler Anemometer (LDA) which is a very accurate optical measurement method. Experimental and numerical results are compared and discussed. This comparison do not show large difference and the results obtained are in general satisfactory.

Keywords: Scalar dissipation rate, thermal effects, turbulent axisymmetric jets, second order modelling, Velocimetry Laser Doppler.

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Authors: N. Fusun Oyman Serteller

Abstract:

In this paper, the techniques to solve time dependent electromagnetic wave propagation equations based on the Finite Difference Method (FDM) are proposed by comparing the results with Finite Element Method (FEM) in 2D while discussing some special simulation examples.  Here, 2D dynamical wave equations for lossy media, even with a constant source, are discussed for establishing symbolic manipulation of wave propagation problems. The main objective of this contribution is to introduce a comparative study of two suitable numerical methods and to show that both methods can be applied effectively and efficiently to all types of wave propagation problems, both linear and nonlinear cases, by using symbolic computation. However, the results show that the FDM is more appropriate for solving the nonlinear cases in the symbolic solution. Furthermore, some specific complex domain examples of the comparison of electromagnetic waves equations are considered. Calculations are performed through Mathematica software by making some useful contribution to the programme and leveraging symbolic evaluations of FEM and FDM.

Keywords: finite difference method, finite element method, linear-nonlinear PDEs, symbolic computation, wave propagation equations

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Authors: Sadia Arshad

Abstract:

The new coronavirus disease or COVID-19 still poses an alarming situation around the world. Modeling based on the derivative of fractional order is relatively important to capture real-world problems and to analyze the realistic situation of the proposed model. Weproposed a mathematical model for the investigation of COVID-19 dynamics in a generalized fractional framework. The new model is formulated in the Caputo sense and employs a nonlinear time-varying transmission rate. The existence and uniqueness solutions of the fractional order derivative have been studied using the fixed-point theory. The associated dynamical behaviors are discussed in terms of equilibrium, stability, and basic reproduction number. For the purpose of numerical implementation, an effcient approximation scheme is also employed to solve the fractional COVID-19 model. Numerical simulations are reported for various fractional orders, and simulation results are compared with a real case of COVID-19 pandemic. According to the comparative results with real data, we find the best value of fractional orderand justify the use of the fractional concept in the mathematical modelling, for the new fractional modelsimulates the reality more accurately than the other classical frameworks.

Keywords: fractional calculus, modeling, stability, numerical solution

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Authors: Jorge Gonzalez Camus, Valentin Keyantuo, Mahamadi Warma

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In this work, we obtain representation results for solutions of a time-fractional differential equation involving the discrete fractional Laplace operator in terms of generalized Wright functions. Such equations arise in the modeling of many physical systems, for example, chain processes in chemistry and radioactivity. The focus is on the linear problem of the simplified Moore - Gibson - Thompson equation, where the discrete fractional Laplacian and the Caputo fractional derivate of order on (0,2] are involved. As a particular case, we obtain the explicit solution for the discrete heat equation and discrete wave equation. Furthermore, we show the explicit solution for the equation involving the perturbed Laplacian by the identity operator. The main tool for obtaining the explicit solution are the Laplace and discrete Fourier transforms, and Stirling's formula. The methodology mainly is to apply both transforms in the equation, to find the inverse of each transform, and to prove that this solution is well defined, using Stirling´s formula.

Keywords: discrete fractional Laplacian, explicit representation of solutions, fractional heat and wave equations, fundamental

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Authors: Aliasghar Arab

Abstract:

Autonomous robots interacting with humans, as safety-critical nonlinear control systems, are complex closed-loop cyber-physical dynamical machines. Keeping these intelligent yet complicated systems safe and smooth during their operations is challenging. The aim of the safe predictive output feedback linearization control synthesis is to design a novel controller for smooth trajectory following while unsafe situations must be avoided. The controller design should obtain a linearized output for smoothness and invariance to a safety subset. Inspired by finite-horizon nonlinear model predictive control, the problem is formulated as constrained nonlinear dynamic programming. The safety constraints can be defined as control barrier functions. Avoiding unsafe maneuvers and performing smooth motions increases the predictability of the robot’s movement for humans when robots and people are working together. Our results demonstrate the proposed output linearization method obeys the safety constraints and, compared to existing safety-guaranteed methods, is smoother and performs better.

Keywords: robotics, collaborative robots, safety, autonomous robots

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Authors: Yuzuru Mitsui, Takashi Ikegami

Abstract:

The exponents of Taylor’s law in deterministic chaotic systems are computed, and their meanings are intensively discussed. Taylor’s law is the scaling relationship between the mean and variance (in both space and time) of population abundance, and this law is known to hold in a variety of ecological time series. The exponents found in the temporal Taylor’s law are different from those of the spatial Taylor’s law. The temporal Taylor’s law is calculated on the time series from the same locations (or the same initial states) of different temporal phases. However, with the spatial Taylor’s law, the mean and variance are calculated from the same temporal phase sampled from different places. Most previous studies were done with stochastic models, but we computed the temporal and spatial Taylor’s law in deterministic systems. The temporal Taylor’s law evaluated using the same initial state, and the spatial Taylor’s law was evaluated using the ensemble average and variance. There were two main discoveries from this work. First, it is often stated that deterministic systems tend to have the value two for Taylor’s exponent. However, most of the calculated exponents here were not two. Second, we investigated the relationships between chaotic features measured by the Lyapunov exponent, the correlation dimension, and other indexes with Taylor’s exponents. No strong correlations were found; however, there is some relationship in the same model, but with different parameter values, and we will discuss the meaning of those results at the end of this paper.

Keywords: chaos, density effect, population dynamics, Taylor’s law

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Authors: Eugene Stepanov, Arkadi Ponossov

Abstract:

Many mathematical models used in biological and other applications are ill-posed. The reason for that is the nature of differential equations, where the nonlinearities are assumed to be step functions, which is done to simplify the analysis. Prominent examples are switched systems arising from gene regulatory networks and neural field equations. This simplification leads, however, to theoretical and numerical complications. In the presentation, it is proposed to apply the theory of hybrid feedback controls to regularize the problem. Roughly speaking, one attaches a finite state control (‘automaton’), which follows the trajectories of the original system and governs its dynamics at the points of ill-posedness. The construction of the automaton is based on the classification of the attractors of the specially designed adjoint dynamical system. This ‘hybridization’ is shown to regularize the original switched system and gives rise to efficient hybrid numerical schemes. Several examples are provided in the presentation, which supports the suggested analysis. The method can be of interest in other applied fields, where differential equations contain step-like nonlinearities.

Keywords: hybrid feedback control, ill-posed problems, singular perturbation analysis, step-like nonlinearities

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Authors: Paolo Russu

Abstract:

This paper investigates the economic and ecological dynamics that emerge in Protected Areas (PAs) due to interactions between visitors and the animals that live there. The PAs contain two species whose interactions are determined by the Lotka-Volterra equations system. Visitors' decisions to visit PAs are influenced by the entrance cost required to enter the park and the chance of witnessing the species living there. Visitors have contradictory effects on the species and thus on the sustainability of the protected areas: on the one hand, an increase in the number of tourists damages the natural habitat of the regions and thus the species living there; on the other hand, it increases the total amount of entrance fees that the managing body of the PAs can use to perform defensive expenditures that protect the species from extinction. For a given set of parameter values, saddle-node bifurcation, Hopf bifurcation, homoclinic orbits, and a Bogdanov–Takens bifurcation of codimension two has been investigated. The system displays periodic doubling and chaotic solutions, as numerical examples demonstrate. Pontryagin's Maximum Principle was utilised to develop an optimal admission charge policy that maximised social gain and ecosystem conservation.

Keywords: chaos, bifurcation points, dynamical model, optimal control

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Authors: A. Abdikian

Abstract:

Propagation of nonlinear acoustic wave in dense electron-positron (e-p) plasmas in the presence of an external magnetic field and stationary ions (to neutralize the plasma background) is studied. By means of the quantum hydrodynamics model and applying the reductive perturbation method, the Zakharov-Kuznetsov equation is derived. Using the bifurcation theory of planar dynamical systems, the compressive structure of electrostatic solitary wave and periodic travelling waves is found. The numerical results show how the ion density ratio, the ion cyclotron frequency, and the direction cosines of the wave vector affect the nonlinear electrostatic travelling waves. The obtained results may be useful to better understand the obliquely nonlinear electrostatic travelling wave of small amplitude localized structures in dense magnetized quantum e-p plasmas and may be applicable to study the particle and energy transport mechanism in compact stars such as the interior of massive white dwarfs etc.

Keywords: bifurcation theory, phase portrait, magnetized electron-positron plasma, the Zakharov-Kuznetsov equation

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Authors: Tahir Nawaz Cheema, Dumitru Baleanu, Ali Raza

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In this research work, we design intelligent computing through Bayesian Regularization artificial neural networks (BRANNs) introduced to solve the mathematical modeling of infectious diseases (Covid-19). The dynamical transmission is due to the interaction of people and its mathematical representation based on the system's nonlinear differential equations. The generation of the dataset of the Covid-19 model is exploited by the power of the explicit Runge Kutta method for different countries of the world like India, Pakistan, Italy, and many more. The generated dataset is approximately used for training, testing, and validation processes for every frequent update in Bayesian Regularization backpropagation for numerical behavior of the dynamics of the Covid-19 model. The performance and effectiveness of designed methodology BRANNs are checked through mean squared error, error histograms, numerical solutions, absolute error, and regression analysis.

Keywords: mathematical models, beysian regularization, bayesian-regularization backpropagation networks, regression analysis, numerical computing

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Authors: Swati Bhomia, C. M. Kishtawal, Neeru Jaiswal

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Traditionally, monsoon forecasts have encountered many difficulties that stem from numerous issues such as lack of adequate upper air observations, mesoscale nature of convection, proper resolution, radiative interactions, planetary boundary layer physics, mesoscale air-sea fluxes, representation of orography, etc. Uncertainties in any of these areas lead to large systematic errors. Global circulation models (GCMs), which are developed independently at different institutes, each of which carries somewhat different representation of the above processes, can be combined to reduce the collective local biases in space, time, and for different variables from different models. This is the basic concept behind the multi-model superensemble and comprises of a training and a forecast phase. The training phase learns from the recent past performances of models and is used to determine statistical weights from a least square minimization via a simple multiple regression. These weights are then used in the forecast phase. The superensemble forecasts carry the highest skill compared to simple ensemble mean, bias corrected ensemble mean and the best model out of the participating member models. This approach is a powerful post-processing method for the estimation of weather forecast parameters reducing the direct model output errors. Although it can be applied successfully to the continuous parameters like temperature, humidity, wind speed, mean sea level pressure etc., in this paper, this approach is applied to rainfall, a parameter quite difficult to handle with standard post-processing methods, due to its high temporal and spatial variability. The present study aims at the development of advanced superensemble schemes comprising of 1-5 day daily precipitation forecasts from five state-of-the-art global circulation models (GCMs), i.e., European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (Europe), National Center for Environmental Prediction (USA), China Meteorological Administration (China), Canadian Meteorological Centre (Canada) and U.K. Meteorological Office (U.K.) obtained from THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE), which is one of the most complete data set available. The novel approaches include the dynamical model selection approach in which the selection of the superior models from the participating member models at each grid and for each forecast step in the training period is carried out. Multi-model superensemble based on the training using similar conditions is also discussed in the present study, which is based on the assumption that training with the similar type of conditions may provide the better forecasts in spite of the sequential training which is being used in the conventional multi-model ensemble (MME) approaches. Further, a variety of methods that incorporate a 'neighborhood' around each grid point which is available in literature to allow for spatial error or uncertainty, have also been experimented with the above mentioned approaches. The comparison of these schemes with respect to the observations verifies that the newly developed approaches provide more unified and skillful prediction of the summer monsoon (viz. June to September) rainfall compared to the conventional multi-model approach and the member models.

Keywords: multi-model superensemble, dynamical model selection, similarity criteria, neighborhood technique, rainfall prediction

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Authors: Feng Guolin, Gong Zhiqiang

Abstract:

In order to study the spatial structure and dynamical mechanism of extreme precipitation in East Asia, a corresponding climate network is constructed by employing the method of event synchronization. It is found that the area of East Asian summer extreme precipitation can be separated into two regions: one with high area weighted connectivity receiving heavy precipitation mostly during the active phase of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM), and another one with low area weighted connectivity receiving heavy precipitation during both the active and the retreat phase of the EASM. Besides，a way for the prediction of extreme precipitation is also developed by constructing a directed climate networks. The simulation accuracy in East Asia is 58% with a 0-day lead, and the prediction accuracy is 21% and average 12% with a 1-day and an n-day (2≤n≤10) lead, respectively. Compare to the normal EASM year, the prediction accuracy is lower in a weak year and higher in a strong year, which is relevant to the differences in correlations and extreme precipitation rates in different EASM situations. Recognizing and identifying these effects is good for understanding and predicting extreme precipitation in East Asia.

Keywords: synchronization, climate network, prediction, rainfall

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Authors: Samuel Ahamefula

Abstract:

Turbulent motion is a highly nonlinear and complex phenomenon, and its modelling is still very challenging. In this study, we developed a hybrid computational approach to accurately simulate fluid turbulence phenomenon. The focus is coupling and transitioning between Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) and Large Eddy Simulating Wall Models (LES-WM) regions. In the framework, high-order fidelity fluid dynamical methods are utilized to simulate the unsteady compressible Navier-Stokes equations in the Eulerian format on the unstructured moving grids. The coupling and transitioning of DNS and LES-WM are conducted through the linearly staggered Dirichlet-Neumann coupling scheme. The high-fidelity framework is verified and validated based on namely, DNS ability for capture full range of turbulent scales, giving accurate results and LES-WM efficiency in simulating near-wall turbulent boundary layer by using wall models.

Keywords: computational methods, turbulence modelling, turbulence entropy, navier-stokes equations

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Authors: Tomas Menard

Abstract:

The synthesis of output-feedback control law has been investigated by many researchers since the last century. While many results exist for the case of Linear Time Invariant systems whose measurements are continuously available, nowadays, control laws are usually implemented on micro-controller, then the measurements are discrete-time by nature. This fact has to be taken into account explicitly in order to obtain a satisfactory behavior of the closed-loop system. One considers here a general class of systems corresponding to an observability normal form and which is subject to uncertainties in the dynamics and sampling of the output. Indeed, in practice, the modeling of the system is never perfect, this results in unknown uncertainties in the dynamics of the model. We propose here an output feedback algorithm which is based on a linear state feedback and a continuous-discrete time observer. The main feature of the proposed control law is that only discrete-time measurements of the output are needed. Furthermore, it is formally proven that the state of the closed loop system exponentially converges toward the origin despite the unknown uncertainties. Finally, the performances of this control scheme are illustrated with simulations.

Keywords: dynamical systems, output feedback control law, sampling, uncertain systems

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Authors: Taha Benarbia, Kay W. Axhausen, Anugrah Ilahi

Abstract:

Electric car sharing system as ecologic transportation increasing in the world. The complexity of managing electric car sharing systems, especially one-way trips and battery autonomy have direct influence to on supply and demand of system. One must be able to precisely model the demand and supply of these systems to better operate electric car sharing and estimate its effect on mobility management and the accessibility that it provides in urban areas. In this context, our work focus to develop performances optimization model of the system based on discrete event simulation and stochastic Petri net. The objective is to search optimal decisions and management parameters of the system in order to fulfil at best demand while minimizing undesirable situations. In this paper, we present new model of electric cars sharing with relocation based on monitoring system. The proposed approach also help to precise the influence of battery charging level on the behaviour of system as important decision parameter of this complex and dynamical system.

Keywords: electric car-sharing systems, smart mobility, Petri nets modelling, discrete event simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 153

Authors: Paolo Russu

Abstract:

This paper investigates the economic and ecological dynamics that emerge in Protected Areas (PAs) as a result of interactions between visitors to the area and the animals that live there. We suppose that the PAs contain two species whose interactions are determined by the Lotka-Volterra equations system. Visitors' decisions to visit PAs are influenced by the entrance cost required to enter the park as well as the chance of witnessing the species that live there. Visitors have contradictory effects on the species and thus on the sustainability of the protected areas: on the one hand, an increase in the number of tourists damages the natural habitat of the areas and thus the species living there; on the other hand, it increases the total amount of entrance fees that the managing body of the PAs can use to perform defensive expenditures that protect the species from extinction. For a given set of parameter values, the existence of saddle-node bifurcation, Hopf bifurcation, homoclinic orbits, and a Bogdanov–Takens bifurcation of codimension two has been investigated. The system displays periodic doubling and chaotic solutions, as demonstrated by numerical examples. Pontryagin's Maximum Principle was utilized to develop an optimal admission charge policy that maximized both social gain and ecosystem conservation.

Keywords: environmental preferences, singularities point, dynamical system, chaos

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Authors: Yessengeldy Kuanyshpayev

Abstract:

Now in some countries of the world the cellular market is on the point of saturation, in others - positive dynamics of development kept on. The reasons for it are also different, but there are united by their general susceptibility to innovation changes, if they are really innovative. If to take as an example the cellular market of Kazakhstan it is defined by the low percent of smart phones at consumers, the low population density, undercapacity of the 3G channel, and absence of universal access to the LTE technology that limits dynamical growth of this branch. These moments are aggravated by failures of starting commercial projects by private companies which prevent to be implemented and widely adopted to a new product among consumers. The object of the research is possible integration of wireless and program technologies at which introduction the idea can regenerate in an innovation. The analysis of existing projects in the market and the possible union of the technologies through a prism of theoretical bases of innovative activity shows that efficiency of the company by development and introduction of innovations is possible only thanks to strict observance of all terms and conditions of the innovative process which main term is profit. Despite that fact that on a global scale the innovativeness issue of companies is very popular, there are no research about possibility of innovative breaks in the field of wireless access to the Internet in the cellular market of Kazakhstan.

Keywords: innovation, the effectiveness of company, commercialization, cellular market

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