Search results for: discrete events
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2715

Search results for: discrete events

165 Supplementing Aerial-Roving Surveys with Autonomous Optical Cameras: A High Temporal Resolution Approach to Monitoring and Estimating Effort within a Recreational Salmon Fishery in British Columbia, Canada

Authors: Ben Morrow, Patrick O'Hara, Natalie Ban, Tunai Marques, Molly Fraser, Christopher Bone

Abstract:

Relative to commercial fisheries, recreational fisheries are often poorly understood and pose various challenges for monitoring frameworks. In British Columbia (BC), Canada, Pacific salmon are heavily targeted by recreational fishers while also being a key source of nutrient flow and crucial prey for a variety of marine and terrestrial fauna, including endangered Southern Resident killer whales (Orcinus orca). Although commercial fisheries were historically responsible for the majority of salmon retention, recreational fishing now comprises both greater effort and retention. The current monitoring scheme for recreational salmon fisheries involves aerial-roving creel surveys. However, this method has been identified as costly and having low predictive power as it is often limited to sampling fragments of fluid and temporally dynamic fisheries. This study used imagery from two shore-based autonomous cameras in a highly active recreational fishery around Sooke, BC, and evaluated their efficacy in supplementing existing aerial-roving surveys for monitoring a recreational salmon fishery. This study involved continuous monitoring and high temporal resolution (over one million images analyzed in a single fishing season), using a deep learning-based vessel detection algorithm and a custom image annotation tool to efficiently thin datasets. This allowed for the quantification of peak-season effort from a busy harbour, species-specific retention estimates, high levels of detected fishing events at a nearby popular fishing location, as well as the proportion of the fishery management area represented by cameras. Then, this study demonstrated how it could substantially enhance the temporal resolution of a fishery through diel activity pattern analyses, scaled monthly to visualize clusters of activity. This work also highlighted considerable off-season fishing detection, currently unaccounted for in the existing monitoring framework. These results demonstrate several distinct applications of autonomous cameras for providing enhanced detail currently unavailable in the current monitoring framework, each of which has important considerations for the managerial allocation of resources. Further, the approach and methodology can benefit other studies that apply shore-based camera monitoring, supplement aerial-roving creel surveys to improve fine-scale temporal understanding, inform the optimal timing of creel surveys, and improve the predictive power of recreational stock assessments to preserve important and endangered fish species.

Keywords: cameras, monitoring, recreational fishing, stock assessment

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164 Hardware Implementation for the Contact Force Reconstruction in Tactile Sensor Arrays

Authors: María-Luisa Pinto-Salamanca, Wilson-Javier Pérez-Holguín

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Reconstruction of contact forces is a fundamental technique for analyzing the properties of a touched object and is essential for regulating the grip force in slip control loops. This is based on the processing of the distribution, intensity, and direction of the forces during the capture of the sensors. Currently, efficient hardware alternatives have been used more frequently in different fields of application, allowing the implementation of computationally complex algorithms, as is the case with tactile signal processing. The use of hardware for smart tactile sensing systems is a research area that promises to improve the processing time and portability requirements of applications such as artificial skin and robotics, among others. The literature review shows that hardware implementations are present today in almost all stages of smart tactile detection systems except in the force reconstruction process, a stage in which they have been less applied. This work presents a hardware implementation of a model-driven reported in the literature for the contact force reconstruction of flat and rigid tactile sensor arrays from normal stress data. From the analysis of a software implementation of such a model, this implementation proposes the parallelization of tasks that facilitate the execution of matrix operations and a two-dimensional optimization function to obtain a vector force by each taxel in the array. This work seeks to take advantage of the parallel hardware characteristics of Field Programmable Gate Arrays, FPGAs, and the possibility of applying appropriate techniques for algorithms parallelization using as a guide the rules of generalization, efficiency, and scalability in the tactile decoding process and considering the low latency, low power consumption, and real-time execution as the main parameters of design. The results show a maximum estimation error of 32% in the tangential forces and 22% in the normal forces with respect to the simulation by the Finite Element Modeling (FEM) technique of Hertzian and non-Hertzian contact events, over sensor arrays of 10×10 taxels of different sizes. The hardware implementation was carried out on an MPSoC XCZU9EG-2FFVB1156 platform of Xilinx® that allows the reconstruction of force vectors following a scalable approach, from the information captured by means of tactile sensor arrays composed of up to 48 × 48 taxels that use various transduction technologies. The proposed implementation demonstrates a reduction in estimation time of x / 180 compared to software implementations. Despite the relatively high values of the estimation errors, the information provided by this implementation on the tangential and normal tractions and the triaxial reconstruction of forces allows to adequately reconstruct the tactile properties of the touched object, which are similar to those obtained in the software implementation and in the two FEM simulations taken as reference. Although errors could be reduced, the proposed implementation is useful for decoding contact forces for portable tactile sensing systems, thus helping to expand electronic skin applications in robotic and biomedical contexts.

Keywords: contact forces reconstruction, forces estimation, tactile sensor array, hardware implementation

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163 A Brief Review on Doping in Sports and Performance-Enhancing Drugs

Authors: Zahra Mohajer, Afsaneh Soltani

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Doping is a major issue in competitive sports and is favored by vast groups of athletes. The feeling of being higher-ranking than others and gaining fame has caused many athletes to misuse drugs. The definition of doping is to use prohibited substances and/or methods that help physical or mental performances or both. Doping counts as the illegal use of chemical substances or drugs, excessive amounts of physiological substances to increase the performance at or out of competition or even the use of inappropriate medications to treat an injury to gain the ability to participate in a competition. The International Olympic Committee (IOC) and World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) have forbidden these substances to ensure fair and equal competition and also the health of the competitors. As of 2004 WADA has published an international list of illegal substances used for doping, which is updated annually. In the process of the Genome Project scientists have gained the ability to treat numerous diseases by gene therapy, which may result in bodily performance increase and therefore a potential opportunity to misuse by some athletes. Gene doping is defined as the non-therapeutic direct and indirect genetic modifications using genetic materials that can improve the performances in sports events. Biosynthetic drugs are a form of indirect genetic engineering. The method can be performed in three ways such as injecting the DNA directly into the muscle, inserting the genetically engineered cells, or transferring the DNA using a virus as a vector. Erythropoietin is a hormone majorly released by the kidney and in small amounts by the liver. Its function is to stimulate the erythropoiesis and therefore the more production of red blood cells (RBC) which causes an increase in Hemoglobin (Hb). During this process, the oxygen delivery to muscles will increase, which will improve athletic performance and postpone exhaustion. There are ways to increase the oxygen transferred to muscles such as blood transfusion, stimulating the production of red blood cells by using Erythropoietin (EPO), and also using allosteric effectors of Hemoglobin. EPO can either be injected as a protein or can be inserted into the cells as the gene which encodes EPO. Adeno-associated viruses have been employed to deliver the EPO gene to the cells. Employing the genes that naturally exist in the human body such as the EPO gene can reduce the risk of detecting gene doping. The first research about blood doping was conducted in 1947. The study has shown that an increase in hematocrit (HCT) up to 55% following homologous transfusion makes it more unchallenging for the body to perform the exercise at the altitude. Thereafter athletes’ attraction to blood infusion escalated. Also, a study has demonstrated that by reinfusing their own blood 4 weeks after being drawn, three men have shown a rise in Hb level which improved the oxygen uptake, and a delay in exhaustion. The list of performance-enhancing drugs is published by WADA annually and includes the following drugs: anabolic agents, hormones, Beta-2 agonists, Beta-blockers, Diuretics, Stimulants, narcotics, cannabinoids, and corticosteroids.

Keywords: doping, PEDs, sports, WADA

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162 Encapsulation of Venlafaxine-Dowex® Resinate: A Once Daily Multiple Unit Formulation

Authors: Salwa Mohamed Salah Eldin, Howida Kamal Ibrahim

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Introduction: Major depressive disorder affects high proportion of the world’s population presenting cost load in health care. Extended release venlafaxine is more convenient and could reduce discontinuation syndrome. The once daily dosing also reduces the potential for adverse events such as nausea due to reduced Cmax. Venlafaxine is an effective first-line agent in the treatment of depression. A once daily formulation was designed to enhance patient compliance. Complexing with a resin was suggested to improve loading of the water soluble drug. The formulated systems were thoroughly evaluated in vitro to prove superiority to previous trials and were compared to the commercial extended release product in experimental animals. Materials and Methods: Venlafaxine-resinates were prepared using Dowex®50WX4-400 and Dowex®50WX8-100 at drug to resin weight ratio of 1: 1. The prepared resinates were evaluated for their drug content, particle shape and surface properties and in vitro release profile in gradient pH. The release kinetics and mechanism were evaluated. Venlafaxine-Dowex® resinates were encapsulated using O/W solvent evaporation technique. Poly-ε-caprolactone, Poly(D, L-lactide-co-glycolide) ester, Poly(D, L-lactide) ester and Eudragit®RS100 were used as coating polymers alone and in combination. Drug-resinate microcapsules were evaluated for morphology, entrapment efficiency and in-vitro release profile. The selected formula was tested in rabbits using a randomized, single-dose, 2-way crossover study against Effexor-XR tablets under fasting condition. Results and Discussion: The equilibrium time was 30 min for Dowex®50WX4-400 and 90 min for Dowex®50WX8-100. The percentage drug loaded was 93.96 and 83.56% for both resins, respectively. Both drug-Dowex® resintes were efficient in sustaining venlafaxine release in comparison to the free drug (up to 8h.). Dowex®50WX4-400 based venlafaxine-resinate was selected for further encapsulation to optimize the release profile for once daily dosing and to lower the burst effect. The selected formula (coated with a mixture of Eudragit RS and PLGA in a ratio of 50/50) was chosen by applying a group of mathematical equations according to targeted values. It recorded the minimum burst effect, the maximum MDT (Mean dissolution time) and a Q24h (percentage drug released after 24 hours) between 95 and 100%. The 90% confidence intervals for the test/reference mean ratio of the log-transformed data of AUC0–24 and AUC0−∞ are within (0.8–1.25), which satisfies the bioequivalence criteria. Conclusion: The optimized formula could be a promising extended release form of the water soluble, short half lived venlafaxine. Being a multiple unit formulation, it lowers the probability of dose dumping and reduces the inter-subject variability in absorption.

Keywords: biodegradable polymers, cation-exchange resin, microencapsulation, venlafaxine hcl

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161 Life-Saving Design Strategies for Nursing Homes and Long-Term Care Facilities

Authors: Jason M. Hegenauer, Nicholas Fucci

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In the late 1990s, a major deinstitutionalization movement of elderly patients took place, since which, the design of long-term care facilities has not been adequately analyzed in the United States. Over the course of the last 25 years, major innovations in construction methods, technology, and medicine have been developed, drastically changing the landscape of healthcare architecture. In light of recent events, and the expected increase in elderly populations with the aging of the baby-boomer generation, it is evident that reconsideration of these facilities is essential for the proper care of aging populations. The global response has been effective in stifling this pandemic; however, widespread disease still poses an imminent threat to the human race. Having witnessed the devastation Covid-19 has reaped throughout nursing homes and long-term care facilities, it is evident that the current strategies for protecting our most vulnerable populations are not enough. Light renovation of existing facilities and previously overlooked considerations for new construction projects can drastically lower the risk at nursing homes and long-term care facilities. A reconfigured entry sequence supplements several of the features which have been long-standing essentials of the design of these facilities. This research focuses on several aspects identified as needing improvement, including indoor environment quality, security measures incorporated into healthcare architecture and design, and architectural mitigation strategies for sick building syndrome. The results of this study have been compiled as 'best practices' for the design of future healthcare construction projects focused on the health, safety, and quality of life of the residents of these facilities. These design strategies, which can easily be implemented through renovation of existing facilities and new construction projects, minimize risk of infection and spread of disease while allowing routine functions to continue with minimal impact, should the need for future lockdowns arise. Through the current lockdown procedures, which were implemented during the Covid-19 pandemic, isolation of residents has caused great unrest and worry for family members and friends as they are cut off from their loved ones. At this time, data is still being reported, leaving infection and death rates inconclusive; however, recent projections in some states list long-term care facility deaths as high as 60% of all deaths in the state. The population of these facilities consists of residents who are elderly, immunocompromised, and have underlying chronic medical conditions. According to the Centers for Disease Control, these populations are particularly susceptible to infection and serious illness. The obligation to protect our most vulnerable population cannot be overlooked, and the harsh measures recently taken as a response to the Covid-19 pandemic prove that the design strategies currently utilized for doing so are inadequate.

Keywords: building security, healthcare architecture and design, indoor environment quality, new construction, sick building syndrome, renovation

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160 Plasmonic Biosensor for Early Detection of Environmental DNA (eDNA) Combined with Enzyme Amplification

Authors: Monisha Elumalai, Joana Guerreiro, Joana Carvalho, Marta Prado

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DNA biosensors popularity has been increasing over the past few years. Traditional analytical techniques tend to require complex steps and expensive equipment however DNA biosensors have the advantage of getting simple, fast and economic. Additionally, the combination of DNA biosensors with nanomaterials offers the opportunity to improve the selectivity, sensitivity and the overall performance of the devices. DNA biosensors are based on oligonucleotides as sensing elements. These oligonucleotides are highly specific to complementary DNA sequences resulting in the hybridization of the strands. DNA biosensors are not only an advantage in the clinical field but also applicable in numerous research areas such as food analysis or environmental control. Zebra Mussels (ZM), Dreissena polymorpha are invasive species responsible for enormous negative impacts on the environment and ecosystems. Generally, the detection of ZM is made when the observation of adult or macroscopic larvae's is made however at this stage is too late to avoid the harmful effects. Therefore, there is a need to develop an analytical tool for the early detection of ZM. Here, we present a portable plasmonic biosensor for the detection of environmental DNA (eDNA) released to the environment from this invasive species. The plasmonic DNA biosensor combines gold nanoparticles, as transducer elements, due to their great optical properties and high sensitivity. The detection strategy is based on the immobilization of a short base pair DNA sequence on the nanoparticles surface followed by specific hybridization in the presence of a complementary target DNA. The hybridization events are tracked by the optical response provided by the nanospheres and their surrounding environment. The identification of the DNA sequences (synthetic target and probes) to detect Zebra mussel were designed by using Geneious software in order to maximize the specificity. Moreover, to increase the optical response enzyme amplification of DNA might be used. The gold nanospheres were synthesized and characterized by UV-visible spectrophotometry and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). The obtained nanospheres present the maximum localized surface plasmon resonance (LSPR) peak position are found to be around 519 nm and a diameter of 17nm. The DNA probes modified with a sulfur group at one end of the sequence were then loaded on the gold nanospheres at different ionic strengths and DNA probe concentrations. The optimal DNA probe loading will be selected based on the stability of the optical signal followed by the hybridization study. Hybridization process leads to either nanoparticle dispersion or aggregation based on the presence or absence of the target DNA. Finally, this detection system will be integrated into an optical sensing platform. Considering that the developed device will be used in the field, it should fulfill the inexpensive and portability requirements. The sensing devices based on specific DNA detection holds great potential and can be exploited for sensing applications in-loco.

Keywords: ZM DNA, DNA probes, nicking enzyme, gold nanoparticles

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159 Creative Mapping Landuse and Human Activities: From the Inventories of Factories to the History of the City and Citizens

Authors: R. Tamborrino, F. Rinaudo

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Digital technologies offer possibilities to effectively convert historical archives into instruments of knowledge able to provide a guide for the interpretation of historical phenomena. Digital conversion and management of those documents allow the possibility to add other sources in a unique and coherent model that permits the intersection of different data able to open new interpretations and understandings. Urban history uses, among other sources, the inventories that register human activities in a specific space (e.g. cadastres, censuses, etc.). The geographic localisation of that information inside cartographic supports allows for the comprehension and visualisation of specific relationships between different historical realities registering both the urban space and the peoples living there. These links that merge the different nature of data and documentation through a new organisation of the information can suggest a new interpretation of other related events. In all these kinds of analysis, the use of GIS platforms today represents the most appropriate answer. The design of the related databases is the key to realise the ad-hoc instrument to facilitate the analysis and the intersection of data of different origins. Moreover, GIS has become the digital platform where it is possible to add other kinds of data visualisation. This research deals with the industrial development of Turin at the beginning of the 20th century. A census of factories realized just prior to WWI provides the opportunity to test the potentialities of GIS platforms for the analysis of urban landscape modifications during the first industrial development of the town. The inventory includes data about location, activities, and people. GIS is shaped in a creative way linking different sources and digital systems aiming to create a new type of platform conceived as an interface integrating different kinds of data visualisation. The data processing allows linking this information to an urban space, and also visualising the growth of the city at that time. The sources, related to the urban landscape development in that period, are of a different nature. The emerging necessity to build, enlarge, modify and join different buildings to boost the industrial activities, according to their fast development, is recorded by different official permissions delivered by the municipality and now stored in the Historical Archive of the Municipality of Turin. Those documents, which are reports and drawings, contain numerous data on the buildings themselves, including the block where the plot is located, the district, and the people involved such as the owner, the investor, and the engineer or architect designing the industrial building. All these collected data offer the possibility to firstly re-build the process of change of the urban landscape by using GIS and 3D modelling technologies thanks to the access to the drawings (2D plans, sections and elevations) that show the previous and the planned situation. Furthermore, they access information for different queries of the linked dataset that could be useful for different research and targets such as economics, biographical, architectural, or demographical. By superimposing a layer of the present city, the past meets to the present-industrial heritage, and people meet urban history.

Keywords: digital urban history, census, digitalisation, GIS, modelling, digital humanities

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158 Archaeoseismological Evidence for a Possible Destructive Earthquake in the 7th Century AD at the Ancient Sites of Bulla Regia and Chemtou (NW Tunisia): Seismotectonic and Structural Implications

Authors: Abdelkader Soumaya, Noureddine Ben Ayed, Ali Kadri, Said Maouche, Hayet Khayati Ammar, Ahmed Braham

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The historic sites of Bulla Regia and Chemtou are among the most important archaeological monuments in northwestern Tunisia, which flourished as large, wealthy settlements during the Roman and Byzantine periods (2nd to 7th centuries AD). An archaeoseismological study provides the first indications about the impact of a possible ancient strong earthquake in the destruction of these cities. Based on previous archaeological excavation results, including numismatic evidence, pottery, economic meltdown and urban transformation, the abrupt ruin and destruction of the cities of Bulla Regia and Chemtou can be bracketed between 613 and 647 AD. In this study, we carried out the first attempt to use the analysis of earthquake archaeological effects (EAEs) that were observed during our field investigations in these two historic cities. The damage includes different types of EAEs: folds on regular pavements, displaced and deformed vaults, folded walls, tilted walls, collapsed keystones in arches, dipping broken corners, displaced-fallen columns, block extrusions in walls, penetrative fractures in brick-made walls and open fractures on regular pavements. These deformations are spread over 10 different sectors or buildings and include 56 measured EAEs. The structural analysis of the identified EAEs can indicate an ancient destructive earthquake that probably destroyed the Bulla Regia and Chemtou archaeological sites. We then analyzed these measurements using structural geological analysis to obtain the maximum horizontal strain of the ground (e.g., S ₕₘₐₓ) on each building-oriented damage. After the collection and analysis of these strain datasets, we proceed to plot the orientation of Sₕₘₐₓ trajectories on the map of the archaeological site (Bulla Regia). We concluded that the obtained Sₕₘₐₓ trajectories within this site could then be related to the mean direction of ground motion (oscillatory movement of the ground) triggered by a seismic event, as documented for some historical earthquakes across the world. These Sₕₘₐₓ orientations closely match the current active stress field, as highlighted by some instrumental events in northern Tunisia. In terms of the seismic source, we strongly suggest that the reactivation of a neotectonic strike-slip fault trending N50E must be responsible for this probable historic earthquake and the recent instrumental seismicity in this area. This fault segment, affecting the folded quaternary deposits south of Jebel Rebia, passes through the monument of Bulla Regia. Stress inversion of the observed and measured data along this fault shows an N150 - 160 trend of Sₕₘₐₓ under a transpressional tectonic regime, which is quite consistent with the GPS data and the state of the current stress field in this region.

Keywords: NW Tunisia, archaeoseismology, earthquake archaeological effect, bulla regia - Chemtou, seismotectonic, neotectonic fault

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157 The Technique of Mobilization of the Colon for Pull-Through Procedure in Hirschsprung's Disease

Authors: Medet K. Khamitov, Marat M. Ospanov, Vasiliy M. Lozovoy, Zhenis N. Sakuov, Dastan Z. Rustemov

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With a high rectosigmoid transitional zone in children with Hirschsprung’s disease, the upper rectal, sigmoid, left colon arteries are ligated during the pull-through of the descending part of the colon. As a result, the inferior mesenteric artery ceases to participate in the blood supply to the descending part of the colon. As a result, the reduced colon is supplied with blood only by the middle colon artery, which originates from the superior mesenteric artery. Insufficiency of blood supply to the reduced colon is the cause of the development of chronic hypoxia of the intestinal wall or necrosis of the reduced descending colon. Some surgeons prefer to preserve the left colon artery. However, it is possible to stretch the mesentery, which can lead to bowel retraction to anastomotic leaks and stenosis. Chronic hypoxia of the reduced colon, in turn, is the cause of acquired (secondary) aganglionosis. The highest frequency of anastomotic leaks is observed in children older than five years. The purpose is to reduce the risk of complications in the pull-through procedure of the descending part of the colon in patients with Hirschsprung’s disease by ensuring its sufficient mobility and maintaining blood supply to the lower mesenteric artery. Methodology and events. Two children aged 5 and 7 years with Hirschsprung’s disease were operated under the conditions of the hospital in Nur-Sultan. The diagnosis was made using x-ray contrast enema and histological examination. Operational technique. After revision of the left part of the colon and assessment of the architectonics of its blood vessels, parietal mobilization of the affected sigmoid and rectum was performed on laparotomy access, while maintaining the arterial and venous terminal arcades of the sigmoid vessels. Then, the descending branch of the left colon artery was crossed (if there is an insufficient length of the reduced intestine, the left colonic artery itself may also be crossed). This manipulation provides additional mobility of the pull-through descending part of the colon. The resulting "windows" in the mesentery of the reduced intestine were sutured to prevent the development of an internal hernia. Formed a full-blooded, sufficiently long transplant from the transverse loops of the splenic angle and the descending parts of the colon with blood supply from the upper and lower mesenteric artery, freely, without tension, is reduced to the rectal zone with the coloanal anastomosis 1.5 cm above the dentate line. Results. The postoperative period was uneventful. Patients were discharged on the 7th day. The observation was carried out for six months. In no case, there was a bowel retraction, anastomotic leak, anastomotic stenosis, or other complications. Conclusion. The presented technique of mobilization of the colon for the pull-through procedure in a high transitional rectosigmoid zone of Hirschsprung’s disease allows to maintain normal blood supply to the distal part of the colon and to avoid the tension of the colon. The technique allows reducing the risk of anastomotic leak, bowel necrosis, chronic ischemia, to exclude colon retraction and anastomotic stenosis.

Keywords: blood supply, children, colon mobilization, Hirschsprung's disease, pull-through

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156 The Role of Supply Chain Agility in Improving Manufacturing Resilience

Authors: Maryam Ziaee

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This research proposes a new approach and provides an opportunity for manufacturing companies to produce large amounts of products that meet their prospective customers’ tastes, needs, and expectations and simultaneously enable manufacturers to increase their profit. Mass customization is the production of products or services to meet each individual customer’s desires to the greatest possible extent in high quantities and at reasonable prices. This process takes place at different levels such as the customization of goods’ design, assembly, sale, and delivery status, and classifies in several categories. The main focus of this study is on one class of mass customization, called optional customization, in which companies try to provide their customers with as many options as possible to customize their products. These options could range from the design phase to the manufacturing phase, or even methods of delivery. Mass customization values customers’ tastes, but it is only one side of clients’ satisfaction; on the other side is companies’ fast responsiveness delivery. It brings the concept of agility, which is the ability of a company to respond rapidly to changes in volatile markets in terms of volume and variety. Indeed, mass customization is not effectively feasible without integrating the concept of agility. To gain the customers’ satisfaction, the companies need to be quick in responding to their customers’ demands, thus highlighting the significance of agility. This research offers a different method that successfully integrates mass customization and fast production in manufacturing industries. This research is built upon the hypothesis that the success key to being agile in mass customization is to forecast demand, cooperate with suppliers, and control inventory. Therefore, the significance of the supply chain (SC) is more pertinent when it comes to this stage. Since SC behavior is dynamic and its behavior changes constantly, companies have to apply one of the predicting techniques to identify the changes associated with SC behavior to be able to respond properly to any unwelcome events. System dynamics utilized in this research is a simulation approach to provide a mathematical model among different variables to understand, control, and forecast SC behavior. The final stage is delayed differentiation, the production strategy considered in this research. In this approach, the main platform of products is produced and stocked and when the company receives an order from a customer, a specific customized feature is assigned to this platform and the customized products will be created. The main research question is to what extent applying system dynamics for the prediction of SC behavior improves the agility of mass customization. This research is built upon a qualitative approach to bring about richer, deeper, and more revealing results. The data is collected through interviews and is analyzed through NVivo software. This proposed model offers numerous benefits such as reduction in the number of product inventories and their storage costs, improvement in the resilience of companies’ responses to their clients’ needs and tastes, the increase of profits, and the optimization of productivity with the minimum level of lost sales.

Keywords: agility, manufacturing, resilience, supply chain

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155 The Chinese Inland-Coastal Inequality: The Role of Human Capital and the Crisis Watershed

Authors: Iacopo Odoardi, Emanuele Felice, Dario D'Ingiullo

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We investigate the role of human capital in the Chinese inland-coastal inequality and how the consequences of the 2007-2008 crisis may induce China to refocus its development path on human capital. We compare panel data analyses for two periods for the richer/coastal and the relatively poor/inland provinces. Considering the rapid evolution of the Chinese economy and the changes forced by the international crisis, we wonder if these events can lead to rethinking local development paths, fostering greater attention on the diffusion of higher education. We expect that the consequences on human capital may, in turn, have consequences on the inland/coastal dualism. The focus on human capital is due to the fact that the growing differences between inland and coastal areas can be explained by the different local endowments. In this respect, human capital may play a major role and should be thoroughly investigated. To assess the extent to which human capital has an effect on economic growth, we consider a fixed-effects model where differences among the provinces are considered parametric shifts in the regression equation. Data refer to the 31 Chinese provinces for the periods 1998-2008 and 2009-2017. Our dependent variable is the annual variation of the provincial gross domestic product (GDP) at the prices of the previous year. Among our regressors, we include two proxies of advanced human capital and other known factors affecting economic development. We are aware of the problem of conceptual endogeneity of variables related to human capital with respect to GDP; we adopt an instrumental variable approach (two-stage least squares) to avoid inconsistent estimates. Our results suggest that the economic strengths that influenced the Chinese take-off and the dualism are confirmed in the first period. These results gain relevance in comparison with the second period. An evolution in local economic endowments is taking place: first, although human capital can have a positive effect on all provinces after the crisis, not all types of advanced education have a direct economic effect; second, the development path of the inland area is changing, with an evolution towards more productive sectors which can favor higher returns to human capital. New strengths (e.g., advanced education, transport infrastructures) could be useful to foster development paths of inland-coastal desirable convergence, especially by favoring the poorer provinces. Our findings suggest that in all provinces, human capital can be useful to promote convergence in growth paths, even if investments in tertiary education seem to have a negative role, most likely due to the inability to exploit the skills of highly educated workers. Furthermore, we observe important changes in the economic characteristics of the less developed internal provinces. These findings suggest an evolution towards more productive economic sectors, a greater ability to exploit both investments in fixed capital and the available infrastructures. All these aspects, if connected with the improvement in the returns to human capital (at least at the secondary level), lead us to assume a better reaction (i.e., resilience) of the less developed provinces to the crisis effects.

Keywords: human capital, inland-coastal inequality, Great Recession, China

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154 Effectiveness of Prehabilitation on Improving Emotional and Clinical Recovery of Patients Undergoing Open Heart Surgeries

Authors: Fatma Ahmed, Heba Mostafa, Bassem Ramdan, Azza El-Soussi

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Background: World Health Organization stated that by 2020 cardiac disease will be the number one cause of death worldwide and estimates that 25 million people per year will suffer from heart disease. Cardiac surgery is considered an effective treatment for severe forms of cardiovascular diseases that cannot be treated by medical treatment or cardiac interventions. In spite of the benefits of cardiac surgery, it is considered a major stressful experience for patients who are candidate for surgery. Prehabilitation can decrease incidences of postoperative complications as it prepares patients for surgical stress through enhancing their defenses to meet the demands of surgery. When patients anticipate the postoperative sequence of events, they will prepare themselves to act certain behaviors, identify their roles and actively participate in their own recovery, therefore, anxiety levels are decreased and functional capacity is enhanced. Prehabilitation programs can comprise interventions that include physical exercise, psychological prehabilitation, nutritional optimization and risk factor modification. Physical exercises are associated with improvements in the functioning of the various physiological systems, reflected in increased functional capacity, improved cardiac and respiratory functions and make patients fit for surgical intervention. Prehabilitation programs should also prepare patients psychologically in order to cope with stress, anxiety and depression associated with postoperative pain, fatigue, limited ability to perform the usual activities of daily living through acting in a healthy manner. Notwithstanding the benefits of psychological preparations, there are limited studies which investigated the effect of psychological prehabilitation to confirm its effect on psychological, quality of life and physiological outcomes of patients who had undergone cardiac surgery. Aim of the study: The study aims to determine the effect of prehabilitation interventions on outcomes of patients undergoing cardiac surgeries. Methods: Quasi experimental study design was used to conduct this study. Sixty eligible and consenting patients were recruited and divided into two groups: control and intervention group (30 participants in each). One tool namely emotional, physiological, clinical, cognitive and functional capacity outcomes of prehabilitation intervention assessment tool was utilized to collect the data of this study. Results: Data analysis showed significant improvement in patients' emotional state, physiological and clinical outcomes (P < 0.000) with the use of prehabilitation interventions. Conclusions: Cardiac prehabilitation in the form of providing information about surgery, circulation exercise, deep breathing exercise, incentive spirometer training and nutritional education implemented daily by patients scheduled for elective open heart surgery one week before surgery have been shown to improve patients' emotional state, physiological and clinical outcomes.

Keywords: emotional recovery, clinical recovery, coronary artery bypass grafting patients, prehabilitation

Procedia PDF Downloads 177
153 Wildfire Risk and Biodiversity Management: Understanding Perceptions and Preparedness

Authors: Emily Moskwa, Delene Weber, Jacob Arnold, Guy M. Robinson, Douglas K. Bardsley

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Management strategies to reduce the risks to human life and property from wildfire are key contemporary concerns, with a growing literature exploring these issues from a social research perspective. Efforts range from narrowly focused examinations, such as comparing the level of community support for vegetation clearance with that of controlled burning, to broader considerations of what constitutes effective fire management policy and education campaigns. However, little analysis is available that integrates the social component of risk mitigation and the influence of educational materials with the biodiversity conservation strategies so often needed in fire-prone ecosystems found on the periphery of urban areas. Indeed many communities living on the fringe of Australian cities face major issues relating to an increased risk of wildfire events and a decline in local biodiversity. Inadequate policy and planning, and a lack of awareness or information, exacerbate this risk. This has brought forward an emerging governance challenge that requires the mitigation of wildfire risk while simultaneously supporting improved conservation practices in these urban-fringe areas. Focusing on the perceptions and experiences of residents of the Lower Eyre Peninsula in South Australia, this study analyses data collected from a series of semi-structured interviews with landholders (n=20) living in rural and urban-fringe areas surrounding the city of Port Lincoln, a city with a growing population and one that has faced a number of very large fires in recent years. In South Australia, new policies have assigned increased responsibility on individual landholders to manage their land and prepare themselves for a wildfire event, potentially to the detriment of the surrounding native vegetation. Our findings indicate the value of gaining a more nuanced understanding of the perceptions and behaviours of landholders living in areas of high fire risk, who often choose to live there in order to be close to the natural environment. Many interviewees demonstrated a high awareness of wildfire risk as a result of their past experience with fire, and the majority considered themselves to be well-prepared in the event of a future fire. Community interactions and educational programs were found to be effective in raising awareness of risk; however, negative trust relationships with government authorities and low exposure to information concerning biodiversity resulted in an overall misunderstanding of the relationship between risk mitigation and biodiversity protection. The study offers insights into how catastrophic fires are reframing perceptions of what constitutes effective vegetation management. It provides recommendations to assist with the development of education strategies that concurrently address wildfire management and biodiversity conservation, and contribute towards environmentally-informed and risk conscious governance.

Keywords: biodiversity conservation, risk, peri-urban planning, wildfire management

Procedia PDF Downloads 219
152 Hybrid Data-Driven Drilling Rate of Penetration Optimization Scheme Guided by Geological Formation and Historical Data

Authors: Ammar Alali, Mahmoud Abughaban, William Contreras Otalvora

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Optimizing the drilling process for cost and efficiency requires the optimization of the rate of penetration (ROP). ROP is the measurement of the speed at which the wellbore is created, in units of feet per hour. It is the primary indicator of measuring drilling efficiency. Maximization of the ROP can indicate fast and cost-efficient drilling operations; however, high ROPs may induce unintended events, which may lead to nonproductive time (NPT) and higher net costs. The proposed ROP optimization solution is a hybrid, data-driven system that aims to improve the drilling process, maximize the ROP, and minimize NPT. The system consists of two phases: (1) utilizing existing geological and drilling data to train the model prior, and (2) real-time adjustments of the controllable dynamic drilling parameters [weight on bit (WOB), rotary speed (RPM), and pump flow rate (GPM)] that direct influence on the ROP. During the first phase of the system, geological and historical drilling data are aggregated. After, the top-rated wells, as a function of high instance ROP, are distinguished. Those wells are filtered based on NPT incidents, and a cross-plot is generated for the controllable dynamic drilling parameters per ROP value. Subsequently, the parameter values (WOB, GPM, RPM) are calculated as a conditioned mean based on physical distance, following Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) interpolation methodology. The first phase is concluded by producing a model of drilling best practices from the offset wells, prioritizing the optimum ROP value. This phase is performed before the commencing of drilling. Starting with the model produced in phase one, the second phase runs an automated drill-off test, delivering live adjustments in real-time. Those adjustments are made by directing the driller to deviate two of the controllable parameters (WOB and RPM) by a small percentage (0-5%), following the Constrained Random Search (CRS) methodology. These minor incremental variations will reveal new drilling conditions, not explored before through offset wells. The data is then consolidated into a heat-map, as a function of ROP. A more optimum ROP performance is identified through the heat-map and amended in the model. The validation process involved the selection of a planned well in an onshore oil field with hundreds of offset wells. The first phase model was built by utilizing the data points from the top-performing historical wells (20 wells). The model allows drillers to enhance decision-making by leveraging existing data and blending it with live data in real-time. An empirical relationship between controllable dynamic parameters and ROP was derived using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). The adjustments resulted in improved ROP efficiency by over 20%, translating to at least 10% saving in drilling costs. The novelty of the proposed system lays is its ability to integrate historical data, calibrate based geological formations, and run real-time global optimization through CRS. Those factors position the system to work for any newly drilled well in a developing field event.

Keywords: drilling optimization, geological formations, machine learning, rate of penetration

Procedia PDF Downloads 99
151 Empirical Decomposition of Time Series of Power Consumption

Authors: Noura Al Akkari, Aurélie Foucquier, Sylvain Lespinats

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Load monitoring is a management process for energy consumption towards energy savings and energy efficiency. Non Intrusive Load Monitoring (NILM) is one method of load monitoring used for disaggregation purposes. NILM is a technique for identifying individual appliances based on the analysis of the whole residence data retrieved from the main power meter of the house. Our NILM framework starts with data acquisition, followed by data preprocessing, then event detection, feature extraction, then general appliance modeling and identification at the final stage. The event detection stage is a core component of NILM process since event detection techniques lead to the extraction of appliance features. Appliance features are required for the accurate identification of the household devices. In this research work, we aim at developing a new event detection methodology with accurate load disaggregation to extract appliance features. Time-domain features extracted are used for tuning general appliance models for appliance identification and classification steps. We use unsupervised algorithms such as Dynamic Time Warping (DTW). The proposed method relies on detecting areas of operation of each residential appliance based on the power demand. Then, detecting the time at which each selected appliance changes its states. In order to fit with practical existing smart meters capabilities, we work on low sampling data with a frequency of (1/60) Hz. The data is simulated on Load Profile Generator software (LPG), which was not previously taken into consideration for NILM purposes in the literature. LPG is a numerical software that uses behaviour simulation of people inside the house to generate residential energy consumption data. The proposed event detection method targets low consumption loads that are difficult to detect. Also, it facilitates the extraction of specific features used for general appliance modeling. In addition to this, the identification process includes unsupervised techniques such as DTW. To our best knowledge, there exist few unsupervised techniques employed with low sampling data in comparison to the many supervised techniques used for such cases. We extract a power interval at which falls the operation of the selected appliance along with a time vector for the values delimiting the state transitions of the appliance. After this, appliance signatures are formed from extracted power, geometrical and statistical features. Afterwards, those formed signatures are used to tune general model types for appliances identification using unsupervised algorithms. This method is evaluated using both simulated data on LPG and real-time Reference Energy Disaggregation Dataset (REDD). For that, we compute performance metrics using confusion matrix based metrics, considering accuracy, precision, recall and error-rate. The performance analysis of our methodology is then compared with other detection techniques previously used in the literature review, such as detection techniques based on statistical variations and abrupt changes (Variance Sliding Window and Cumulative Sum).

Keywords: general appliance model, non intrusive load monitoring, events detection, unsupervised techniques;

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150 Language and Power Relations in Selected Political Crisis Speeches in Nigeria: A Critical Discourse Analysis

Authors: Isaiah Ifeanyichukwu Agbo

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Human speech is capable of serving many purposes. Power and control are not always exercised overtly by linguistic acts, but maybe enacted and exercised in the myriad of taken-for-granted actions of everyday life. Domination, power control, discrimination and mind control exist in human speech and may lead to asymmetrical power relations. In discourse, there are persuasive and manipulative linguistic acts that serve to establish solidarity and identification with the 'we group' and polarize with the 'they group'. Political discourse is crafted to defend and promote the problematic narrative of outright controversial events in a nation’s history thereby sustaining domination, marginalization, manipulation, inequalities and injustices, often without the dominated and marginalized group being aware of them. They are designed and positioned to serve the political and social needs of the producers. Political crisis speeches in Nigeria, just like in other countries concentrate on positive self-image, de-legitimization of political opponents, reframing accusation to one’s advantage, redefining problematic terms and adopting reversal strategy. In most cases, the people are ignorant of the hidden ideological positions encoded in the text. Few researches have been conducted adopting the frameworks of critical discourse analysis and systemic functional linguistics to investigate this situation in the political crisis speeches in Nigeria. In this paper, we focus attention on the analyses of the linguistic, semantic, and ideological elements in selected political crisis speeches in Nigeria to investigate if they create and sustain unequal power relations and manipulative tendencies from the perspectives of Critical Discourse Analysis (CDA) and Systemic Functional Linguistics (SFL). Critical Discourse Analysis unpacks both opaque and transparent structural relationships of power dominance, power relations and control as manifested in language. Critical discourse analysis emerged from a critical theory of language study which sees the use of language as a form of social practice where social relations are reproduced or contested and different interests are served. Systemic function linguistics relates the structure of texts to their function. Fairclough’s model of CDA and Halliday’s systemic functional approach to language study are adopted in this paper. This paper probes into language use that perpetuates inequalities. This study demystifies the hidden implicature of the selected political crisis speeches and reveals the existence of information that is not made explicit in what the political actors actually say. The analysis further reveals the ideological configurations present in the texts. These ideological standpoints are the basis for naturalizing implicit ideologies and hegemonic influence in the texts. The analyses of the texts further uncovered the linguistic and discursive strategies deployed by text producers to manipulate the unsuspecting members of the public both mentally and conceptually in order to enact, sustain and maintain unhealthy power relations at crisis times in the Nigerian political history.

Keywords: critical discourse analysis, language, political crisis, power relations, systemic functional linguistics

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149 Geodynamic Evolution of the Tunisian Dorsal Backland (Central Mediterranean) from the Cenozoic to Present

Authors: Aymen Arfaoui, Abdelkader Soumaya, Noureddine Ben Ayed

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The study region is located in the Tunisian Dorsal Backland (Central Mediterranean), which is the easternmost part of the Saharan Atlas mountain range, trending southwest-northeast. Based on our fieldwork, seismic tomography images, seismicity, and previous studies, we propose an interpretation of the relationship between the surface deformation and fault kinematics in the study area and the internal dynamic processes acting in the Central Mediterranean from the Cenozoic to the present. The subduction and dynamics of internal forces beneath the complicated Maghrebides mobile belt have an impact on the Tertiary and Quaternary tectonic regimes in the Pelagian and Atlassic foreland that is part of our study region. The left lateral reactivation of the major "Tunisian N-S Axis fault" and the development of a compressional relay between the Hammamet Korbous and Messella-Ressas faults are possibly a result of tectonic stresses due to the slab roll-back following the Africa/Eurasia convergence. After the slab segmentation and its eastward migration (5–4 Ma) and the formation of the Strait of Sicily "rift zone" further east, a transtensional tectonic regime has been installed in this area. According to seismic tomography images, the STEP fault of the "North-South Axis" at Hammamet-Korbous coincides with the western edge of the "Slab windows" of the Sicilian Channel and the eastern boundary of the positive anomalies attributed to the residual Slab of Tunisia. On the other hand, significant E-W Plio-Quaternary tectonic activity may be observed along the eastern portion of this STEP fault system in the Grombalia zone as a result of recent vertical lithospheric motion in response to the lateral slab migration eastward to Sicily Channel. According to SKS fast splitting directions, the upper mantle flow pattern beneath Tunisian Dorsal is parallel to the NE-SW to E-W orientation of the Shmin identified in the study area, similar to the Plio-Quaternary extensional orientation in the Central Mediterranean. Additionally, the removal of the lithosphere and the subsequent uplift of the sub-lithospheric mantle beneath the topographic highs of the Dorsal and its surroundings may be the cause of the dominant extensional to transtensional Quaternary regime. The occurrence of strike-slip and extensional seismic events in the Pelagian block reveals that the regional transtensional tectonic regime persists today. Finally, we believe that the geodynamic history of the study area since the Cenozoic is primarily influenced by the preexisting weak zones, the African slab detachment, and the upper mantle flow pattern in the central Mediterranean.

Keywords: Tunisia, lithospheric discontinuity (STEP fault), geodynamic evolution, Tunisian dorsal backland, strike-slip fault, seismic tomography, seismicity, central Mediterranean

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148 Technological Challenges for First Responders in Civil Protection; the RESPOND-A Solution

Authors: Georgios Boustras, Cleo Varianou Mikellidou, Christos Argyropoulos

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Summer 2021 was marked by a number of prolific fires in the EU (Greece, Cyprus, France) as well as outside the EU (USA, Turkey, Israel). This series of dramatic events have stretched national civil protection systems and first responders in particular. Despite the introduction of National, Regional and International frameworks (e.g. rescEU), a number of challenges have arisen, not only related to climate change. RESPOND-A (funded by the European Commission by Horizon 2020, Contract Number 883371) introduces a unique five-tier project architectural structure for best associating modern telecommunications technology with novel practices for First Responders of saving lives, while safeguarding themselves, more effectively and efficiently. The introduced architecture includes Perception, Network, Processing, Comprehension, and User Interface layers, which can be flexibly elaborated to support multiple levels and types of customization, so, the intended technologies and practices can adapt to any European Environment Agency (EEA)-type disaster scenario. During the preparation of the RESPOND-A proposal, some of our First Responder Partners expressed the need for an information management system that could boost existing emergency response tools, while some others envisioned a complete end-to-end network management system that would offer high Situational Awareness, Early Warning and Risk Mitigation capabilities. The intuition behind these needs and visions sits on the long-term experience of these Responders, as well, their smoldering worry that the evolving threat of climate change and the consequences of industrial accidents will become more frequent and severe. Three large-scale pilot studies are planned in order to illustrate the capabilities of the RESPOND-A system. The first pilot study will focus on the deployment and operation of all available technologies for continuous communications, enhanced Situational Awareness and improved health and safety conditions for First Responders, according to a big fire scenario in a Wildland Urban Interface zone (WUI). An important issue will be examined during the second pilot study. Unobstructed communication in the form of the flow of information is severely affected during a crisis; the flow of information between the wider public, from the first responders to the public and vice versa. Call centers are flooded with requests and communication is compromised or it breaks down on many occasions, which affects in turn – the effort to build a common operations picture for all firstr esponders. At the same time the information that reaches from the public to the operational centers is scarce, especially in the aftermath of an incident. Understandably traffic if disrupted leaves no other way to observe but only via aerial means, in order to perform rapid area surveys. Results and work in progress will be presented in detail and challenges in relation to civil protection will be discussed.

Keywords: first responders, safety, civil protection, new technologies

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147 Rapid Atmospheric Pressure Photoionization-Mass Spectrometry (APPI-MS) Method for the Detection of Polychlorinated Dibenzo-P-Dioxins and Dibenzofurans in Real Environmental Samples Collected within the Vicinity of Industrial Incinerators

Authors: M. Amo, A. Alvaro, A. Astudillo, R. Mc Culloch, J. C. del Castillo, M. Gómez, J. M. Martín

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Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) of course comprise a range of highly toxic compounds that may exist as particulates within the air or accumulate within water supplies, soil, or vegetation. They may be created either ubiquitously or naturally within the environment as a product of forest fires or volcanic eruptions. It is only since the industrial revolution, however, that it has become necessary to closely monitor their generation as a byproduct of manufacturing/combustion processes, in an effort to mitigate widespread contamination events. Of course, the environmental concentrations of these toxins are expected to be extremely low, therefore highly sensitive and accurate methods are required for their determination. Since ionization of non-polar compounds through electrospray and APCI is difficult and inefficient, we evaluate the performance of a novel low-flow Atmospheric Pressure Photoionization (APPI) source for the trace detection of various dioxins and furans using rapid Mass Spectrometry workflows. Air, soil and biota (vegetable matter) samples were collected monthly during one year from various locations within the vicinity of an industrial incinerator in Spain. Analytes were extracted and concentrated using soxhlet extraction in toluene and concentrated by rotavapor and nitrogen flow. Various ionization methods as electrospray (ES) and atmospheric pressure chemical ionization (APCI) were evaluated, however, only the low-flow APPI source was capable of providing the necessary performance, in terms of sensitivity, required for detecting all targeted analytes. In total, 10 analytes including 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzodioxin (TCDD) were detected and characterized using the APPI-MS method. Both PCDDs and PCFDs were detected most efficiently in negative ionization mode. The most abundant ion always corresponded to the loss of a chlorine and addition of an oxygen, yielding [M-Cl+O]- ions. MRM methods were created in order to provide selectivity for each analyte. No chromatographic separation was employed; however, matrix effects were determined to have a negligible impact on analyte signals. Triple Quadrupole Mass Spectrometry was chosen because of its unique potential for high sensitivity and selectivity. The mass spectrometer used was a Sciex´s Qtrap3200 working in negative Multi Reacting Monitoring Mode (MRM). Typically mass detection limits were determined to be near the 1-pg level. The APPI-MS2 technology applied to the detection of PCDD/Fs allows fast and reliable atmospheric analysis, minimizing considerably operational times and costs, with respect other technologies available. In addition, the limit of detection can be easily improved using a more sensitive mass spectrometer since the background in the analysis channel is very low. The APPI developed by SEADM allows polar and non-polar compounds ionization with high efficiency and repeatability.

Keywords: atmospheric pressure photoionization-mass spectrometry (APPI-MS), dioxin, furan, incinerator

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146 Flood Risk Assessment, Mapping Finding the Vulnerability to Flood Level of the Study Area and Prioritizing the Study Area of Khinch District Using and Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Model

Authors: Muhammad Karim Ahmadzai

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Floods are natural phenomena and are an integral part of the water cycle. The majority of them are the result of climatic conditions, but are also affected by the geology and geomorphology of the area, topography and hydrology, the water permeability of the soil and the vegetation cover, as well as by all kinds of human activities and structures. However, from the moment that human lives are at risk and significant economic impact is recorded, this natural phenomenon becomes a natural disaster. Flood management is now a key issue at regional and local levels around the world, affecting human lives and activities. The majority of floods are unlikely to be fully predicted, but it is feasible to reduce their risks through appropriate management plans and constructions. The aim of this Case Study is to identify, and map areas of flood risk in the Khinch District of Panjshir Province, Afghanistan specifically in the area of Peshghore, causing numerous damages. The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the contribution of remote sensing technology and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) in assessing the susceptibility of this region to flood events. Panjsher is facing Seasonal floods and human interventions on streams caused floods. The beds of which have been trampled to build houses and hotels or have been converted into roads, are causing flooding after every heavy rainfall. The streams crossing settlements and areas with high touristic development have been intensively modified by humans, as the pressure for real estate development land is growing. In particular, several areas in Khinch are facing a high risk of extensive flood occurrence. This study concentrates on the construction of a flood susceptibility map, of the study area, by combining vulnerability elements, using the Analytical Hierarchy Process/ AHP. The Analytic Hierarchy Process, normally called AHP, is a powerful yet simple method for making decisions. It is commonly used for project prioritization and selection. AHP lets you capture your strategic goals as a set of weighted criteria that you then use to score projects. This method is used to provide weights for each criterion which Contributes to the Flood Event. After processing of a digital elevation model (DEM), important secondary data were extracted, such as the slope map, the flow direction and the flow accumulation. Together with additional thematic information (Landuse and Landcover, topographic wetness index, precipitation, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, Elevation, River Density, Distance from River, Distance to Road, Slope), these led to the final Flood Risk Map. Finally, according to this map, the Priority Protection Areas and Villages and the structural and nonstructural measures were demonstrated to Minimize the Impacts of Floods on residential and Agricultural areas.

Keywords: flood hazard, flood risk map, flood mitigation measures, AHP analysis

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145 Study of Formation and Evolution of Disturbance Waves in Annular Flow Using Brightness-Based Laser-Induced Fluorescence (BBLIF) Technique

Authors: Andrey Cherdantsev, Mikhail Cherdantsev, Sergey Isaenkov, Dmitriy Markovich

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In annular gas-liquid flow, liquid flows as a film along pipe walls sheared by high-velocity gas stream. Film surface is covered by large-scale disturbance waves which affect pressure drop and heat transfer in the system and are necessary for entrainment of liquid droplets from film surface into the core of gas stream. Disturbance waves are a highly complex and their properties are affected by numerous parameters. One of such aspects is flow development, i.e., change of flow properties with the distance from the inlet. In the present work, this question is studied using brightness-based laser-induced fluorescence (BBLIF) technique. This method enables one to perform simultaneous measurements of local film thickness in large number of points with high sampling frequency. In the present experiments first 50 cm of upward and downward annular flow in a vertical pipe of 11.7 mm i.d. is studied with temporal resolution of 10 kHz and spatial resolution of 0.5 mm. Thus, spatiotemporal evolution of film surface can be investigated, including scenarios of formation, acceleration and coalescence of disturbance waves. The behaviour of disturbance waves' velocity depending on phases flow rates and downstream distance was investigated. Besides measuring the waves properties, the goal of the work was to investigate the interrelation between disturbance waves properties and integral characteristics of the flow such as interfacial shear stress and flow rate of dispersed phase. In particular, it was shown that the initial acceleration of disturbance waves, defined by the value of shear stress, linearly decays with downstream distance. This lack of acceleration which may even lead to deceleration is related to liquid entrainment. Flow rate of disperse phase linearly grows with downstream distance. During entrainment events, liquid is extracted directly from disturbance waves, reducing their mass, area of interaction to the gas shear and, hence, velocity. Passing frequency of disturbance waves at each downstream position was measured automatically with a new algorithm of identification of characteristic lines of individual disturbance waves. Scenarios of coalescence of individual disturbance waves were identified. Transition from initial high-frequency Kelvin-Helmholtz waves appearing at the inlet to highly nonlinear disturbance waves with lower frequency was studied near the inlet using 3D realisation of BBLIF method in the same cylindrical channel and in a rectangular duct with cross-section of 5 mm by 50 mm. It was shown that the initial waves are generally two-dimensional but are promptly broken into localised three-dimensional wavelets. Coalescence of these wavelets leads to formation of quasi two-dimensional disturbance waves. Using cross-correlation analysis, loss and restoration of two-dimensionality of film surface with downstream distance were studied quantitatively. It was shown that all the processes occur closer to the inlet at higher gas velocities.

Keywords: annular flow, disturbance waves, entrainment, flow development

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144 Concept of Tourist Village on Kampung Karaton of Karaton Kasunanan Surakarta, Central Java, Indonesia

Authors: Naniek Widayati Priyomarsono

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Introduction: In beginning of Karaton formation, namely, era of Javanese kingdom town had the power region outside castle town (called as Mancanegara), settlement of karaton can function as “the space-between” and “space-defense”, besides it was one of components from governmental structure and karaton power at that time (internal servant/abdi dalem and sentana dalem). Upon the Independence of Indonesia in 1945 “Kingdom-City” converted its political status into part of democratic town managed by statutes based on the classification. The latter affects local culture hierarchy alteration due to the physical development and events. Dynamics of social economy activities in Kampung Karaton surrounded by buildings of Complex of Karaton Kasunanan ini, have impact on the urban system disturbed into the región. Also cultural region image fades away with the weak visual access from existant cultural artefacts. That development lacks of giving appreciation to the established region image providing identity of Karaton Kasunanan particularly and identity of Surakarta city in general. Method used is strategy of grounded theory research (research providing strong base of a theory). Research is focused on actors active and passive relevantly getting involved in change process of Karaton settlement. Data accumulated is “Investigation Focus” oriented on actors affecting that change either internal or external. Investigation results are coupled with field observation data, documentation, literature study, thus it takes accurate findings. Findings: Karaton village has potential products as attraction, possessing human resource support, strong motivation from society still living in that settlement, possessing facilities and means supports, tourism event-supporting facilities, cultural art institution, available fields or development area. Data analyzed: To get the expected result it takes restoration in social cultural development direction, and economy, with ways of: Doing social cultural development strategy, economy, and politics. To-do steps are program socialization of Karaton village as Tourism Village, economical development of local society, regeneration pattern, filtering, and selection of tourism development, integrated planning system development, development with persuasive approach, regulation, market mechanism, social cultural event sector development, political development for region activity sector. Summary: In case the restoration is done by getting society involved as subject of that settlement (active participation in the field), managed and packed interestingly and naturally with tourism-supporting facilities development, village of Karaton Kasunanan Surakarta is ready to receive visit of domestic and foreign tourists.

Keywords: karaton village, finding, restoration, economy, Indonesia

Procedia PDF Downloads 411
143 The Effect of Post Spinal Hypotension on Cerebral Oxygenation Using Near-Infrared Spectroscopy and Neonatal Outcomes in Full Term Parturient Undergoing Lower Segment Caesarean Section: A Prospective Observational Study

Authors: Shailendra Kumar, Lokesh Kashyap, Puneet Khanna, Nishant Patel, Rakesh Kumar, Arshad Ayub, Kelika Prakash, Yudhyavir Singh, Krithikabrindha V.

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Introduction: Spinal anesthesia is considered a standard anesthesia technique for caesarean delivery. The incidence of spinal hypotension during caesarean delivery is 70 -80%. Spinal hypotension may cause cerebral hypoperfusion in the mother, but physiologically cerebral autoregulatory mechanisms accordingly prevent cerebral hypoxia. Cerebral blood flow remains constant in the 50-150 mmHg of Cerebral Perfusion Pressure (CPP) range. Near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) is a non-invasive technology that is used to detect Cerebral Desaturation Events (CDEs) immediately compared to other conventional intraoperative monitoring techniques. Objective: The primary aim of the study is to correlate the change in cerebral oxygen saturation using NIRS with respect to a fall in mean blood pressure after spinal anaesthesia and to find out the effects of spinal hypotension on neonatal APGAR score, neonatal acid-base variations, and presence of Postoperative Delirium (POD). Methodology: NIRS sensors were attached to the forehead of all the patients, and their baseline readings of cerebral oxygenation on the right and left frontal regions and mean blood pressure were noted. Subarachnoid block was given with hyperbaric 0.5% bupivacaine plus fentanyl, the dose being determined by the individual anaesthesiologist. Co-loading of IV crystalloid solutions was given to the patient. Blood pressure reading and cerebral saturation were recorded every 1 minute till 30min. Hypotension was a fall in MAP less than 20% of the baseline values. Patients going for hypotension were treated with an IV Bolus of phenylephrine/ephedrine. Umbilical cord blood samples were taken for blood gas analysis, and neonatal APGAR was noted by a neonatologist. Study design: A prospective observational study conducted in a population of Thirty ASA 2 and 3 parturients scheduled for lower segment caesarean section (LSCS). Results: Mean fall in regional cerebral saturation is 28.48 ± 14.7% with respect to the mean fall in blood pressure 38.92 ± 8.44 mm Hg. The correlation coefficient between fall in saturation and fall in mean blood pressure is 0.057, and p-value {0.7} after subarachnoid block. A fall in regional cerebral saturation occurred 2±1 min before a fall in mean blood pressure. Twenty-nine out of thirty patients required vasopressors during hypotension. The first dose of vasopressor requirement is needed at 6.02±2 min after the block. The mean APGAR score was 7.86 and 9.74 at 1 and 5 min of birth, respectively, and the mean umbilical arterial pH of 7.3±0.1. According to DRS-98 (Delirium Rating Scale), the mean delirium rating score on postoperative day 1 and day 2 were 0.1 and 0.7, respectively. Discussion: There was a fall in regional cerebral oxygen saturation, which started before with respect to a significant fall in mean blood pressure readings but was statistically not significant. Maximal fall in blood pressure requiring vasopressors occurs within 10 min of SAB. Neonatal APGAR scores and acid-base variations were in the normal range with maternal hypotension, and there was no incidence of postoperative delirium in patients with post-spinal hypotension.

Keywords: cerebral oxygenation, LSCS, NIRS, spinal hypotension

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142 The Display of Age-Period/Age-Cohort Mortality Trends Using 1-Year Intervals Reveals Period and Cohort Effects Coincident with Major Influenza A Events

Authors: Maria Ines Azambuja

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Graphic displays of Age-Period-Cohort (APC) mortality trends generally uses data aggregated within 5 or 10-year intervals. Technology allows one to increase the amount of processed data. Displaying occurrences by 1-year intervals is a logic first step in the direction of attaining higher quality landscapes of variations in temporal occurrences. Method: 1) Comparison of UK mortality trends plotted by 10-, 5- and 1-year intervals; 2) Comparison of UK and US mortality trends (period X age and cohort X age) displayed by 1-year intervals. Source: Mortality data (period, 1x1, males, 1933-1912) uploaded from the Human Mortality Database to Excel files, where Period X Age and Cohort X Age graphics were produced. The choice of transforming age-specific trends from calendar to birth-cohort years (cohort = period – age) (instead of using cohort 1x1 data available at the HMD resource) was taken to facilitate the comparison of age-specific trends when looking across calendar-years and birth-cohorts. Yearly live births, males, 1933 to 1912 (UK) were uploaded from the HFD. Influenza references are from the literature. Results: 1) The use of 1-year intervals unveiled previously unsuspected period, cohort and interacting period x cohort effects upon all-causes mortality. 2) The UK and US figures showed variations associated with particular calendar years (1936, 1940, 1951, 1957-68, 72) and, most surprisingly, with particular birth-cohorts (1889-90 in the US, and 1900, 1918-19, 1940-41 and 1946-47, in both countries. Also, the figures showed ups and downs in age-specific trends initiated at particular birth-cohorts (1900, 1918-19 and 1947-48) or a particular calendar-year (1968, 1972, 1977-78 in the US), variations at times restricted to just a range of ages (cohort x period interacting effects). Importantly, most of the identified “scars” (period and cohort) correlates with the record of occurrences of Influenza A epidemics since the late 19th Century. Conclusions: The use of 1-year intervals to describe APC mortality trends both increases the amount of information available, thus enhancing the opportunities for patterns’ recognition, and increases our capability of interpreting those patterns by describing trends across smaller intervals of time (period or birth-cohort). The US and the UK mortality landscapes share many but not all 'scars' and distortions suggested here to be associated with influenza epidemics. Different size-effects of wars are evident, both in mortality and in fertility. But it would also be realistic to suppose that the preponderant influenza A viruses circulating in UK and US at the beginning of the 20th Century might be different and the difference to have intergenerational long-term consequences. Compared with the live births trend (UK data), birth-cohort scars clearly depend on birth-cohort sizes relatives to neighbor ones, which, if causally associated with influenza, would result from influenza-related fetal outcomes/selection. Fetal selection could introduce continuing modifications on population patterns of immune-inflammatory phenotypes that might give rise to 'epidemic constitutions' favoring the occurrence of particular diseases. Comparative analysis of mortality landscapes may help us to straight our record of past circulation of Influenza viruses and document associations between influenza recycling and fertility changes.

Keywords: age-period-cohort trends, epidemic constitution, fertility, influenza, mortality

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141 A Qualitative Study of Newspaper Discourse and Online Discussions of Climate Change in China

Authors: Juan Du

Abstract:

Climate change is one of the most crucial issues of this era, with contentious debates on it among scholars. But there are sparse studies on climate change discourse in China. Including China in the study of climate change is essential for a sociological understanding of climate change. China -- as a developing country and an essential player in tackling climate change -- offers an ideal case for studying climate change for scholars moving beyond developed countries and enriching their understandings of climate change by including diverse social settings. This project contrasts the macro- and micro-level understandings of climate change in China, which helps scholars move beyond a focus on climate skepticism and denialism and enriches sociology of climate change knowledge. The macro-level understanding of climate change is obtained by analyzing over 4,000 newspaper articles from various official outlets in China. State-controlled newspapers play an essential role in transmitting essential and high-quality information and promoting broader public understanding of climate change and its anthropogenic nature. Thus, newspaper articles can be seen as tools employed by governments to mobilize the public in terms of supporting the development of a strategy shift from economy-growth to an ecological civilization. However, media is just one of the significant factors influencing an individual’s climate change concern. Extreme weather events, access to accurate scientific information, elite cues, and movement/countermovement advocacy influence an individual’s perceptions of climate change. Hence, there are differences in the ways that both newspaper articles and the public frame the issues. The online forum is an informative channel for scholars to understand the public’s opinion. The micro-level data comes from Zhihu, which is China’s equivalence of Quora. Users can propose, answer, and comment on questions. This project analyzes the questions related to climate change which have over 20 answers. By open-coding both the macro- and micro-level data, this project will depict the differences between ideology as presented in government-controlled newspapers and how people talk and act with respect to climate change in cyberspace, which may provide an idea about any existing disconnect in public behavior and their willingness to change daily activities to facilitate a greener society. The contemporary Yellow Vest protests in France illustrate that the large gap between governmental policies of climate change mitigation and the public’s understanding may lead to social movement activity and social instability. Effective environmental policy is impossible without the public’s support. Finding existing gaps in understanding may help policy-makers develop effective ways of framing climate change and obtain more supporters of climate change related policies. Overall, this qualitative project provides answers to the following research questions: 1) How do different state-controlled newspapers transmit their ideology on climate change to the public and in what ways? 2) How do individuals frame climate change online? 3) What are the differences between newspapers’ framing and individual’s framing?

Keywords: climate change, China, framing theory, media, public’s climate change concern

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140 Circulating Public Perception on Agroforestry: Discourse Networks Analysis Using Social Media and Online News Media in Four Countries of the Sahel Region

Authors: Luisa Müting, Wisnu Harto Adiwijoyo

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Agroforestry systems transform the agricultural landscapes in the Sahel region of Africa, providing food and farming products consumed for subsistence or sold for income. In the incrementally dry climate of the Sahel region, the spreading of agroforestry practices is integral for policymaker efforts to counteract land degradation and provide soil restoration in the region. Several measures on agroforestry practices have been implemented in the region by governmental and non-governmental institutions in recent years. However, despite the efforts, past research shows that awareness of how policies and interventions are being consumed and perceived by the public remains low. Therefore, interpreting public policy dilemmas by analyzing the public perception regarding agroforestry concepts and practices is necessary. Public perceptions and discourses can be an essential driver or constraint for the adoption of agroforestry practices in the region. Thus, understanding the public discourse behavior of crucial stakeholders could assist policymakers in developing inclusive and contextual policies that are relevant to the context of agroforestry adoption in Sahel region. To answer how information about agroforestry spreads and is perceived by the public. As internet usage increased drastically over the past decade, reaching a share of 33 percent of the population being connected to the internet, this research is based on online conversation data. Social media data from Facebook are gathered daily between April 2021 and April 2022 in Djibouti, Senegal, Mali, and Nigeria based on their share of active internet users compared to other countries in the Sahel region. A systematic methodology was applied to the extracted social media using discourse network analysis (DNA). This study then clustered the data by the types of agroforestry practices, sentiments, and country. Additionally, this research extracted the text data from online news media during the same period to pinpoint events related to the topic of agroforestry. The preliminary result indicates that tree management, crops, and livestock integration, diversifying species and genetic resources, and focusing on interactions and productivity across the agricultural system; are the most notable keywords in agroforestry-related conversations within the four countries in the Sahel region. Additionally, approximately 84 percent of the discussions were still dominated by big actors, such as NGO or government actors. Furthermore, as a subject of communication within agroforestry discourse, the Great Green Wall initiative generates almost 60 percent positive sentiment within the captured social media data, effectively having a more significant outreach than general agroforestry topics. This study provides an understanding for scholars and policymakers with a springboard for further research or policy design on agroforestry in the four countries of the Sahel region with systematically uncaptured novel data from the internet.

Keywords: sahel, djibouti, senegal, mali, nigeria, social networks analysis, public discourse analysis, sentiment analysis, content analysis, social media, online news, agroforestry, land restoration

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139 Inflammatory and Cardio Hypertrophic Remodeling Biomarkers in Patients with Fabry Disease

Authors: Margarita Ivanova, Julia Dao, Andrew Friedman, Neil Kasaci, Rekha Gopal, Ozlem Goker-Alpan

Abstract:

In Fabry disease (FD), α-galactosidase A (α-Gal A) deficiency leads to the accumulation of globotriaosylceramide (Lyso-Gb3 and Gb3), triggering a pathologic cascade that causes the severity of organs damage. The heart is one of the several organs with high sensitivity to the α-Gal A deficiency. A subgroup of patients with significant residual of α-Gal A activity with primary cardiac involvement is occasionally referred to as “cardiac variant.” The cardiovascular complications are most frequently encountered, contributing substantially to morbidity, and are the leading cause of premature death in male and female patients with FD. The deposition of Lyso-Gb-3 and Gb-3 within the myocardium affects cardiac function with resultant progressive cardiovascular pathology. Gb-3 and Lyso-Gb-3 accumulation at the cellular level trigger a cascade of events leading to end-stage fibrosis. In the cardiac tissue, Lyso-Gb-3 deposition is associated with the increased release of inflammatory factors and transforming growth factors. Infiltration of lymphocytes and macrophages into endomyocardial tissue indicates that inflammation plays a significant role in cardiac damage. Moreover, accumulated data suggest that chronic inflammation leads to multisystemic FD pathology even under enzyme replacement therapy (ERT). NF-κB activation plays a subsequent role in the inflammatory response to cardiac dysfunction and advanced heart failure in the general population. TNFalpha/NF-κB signaling protects the myocardial evoking by ischemic preconditioning; however, this protective effect depends on the concentration of TNF-α. Thus, we hypothesize that TNF-α is a critical factor in determining the grade of cardio-pathology. Cardiac hypertrophy corresponds to the expansion of the coronary vasculature to maintain a sufficient supply of nutrients and oxygen. Coronary activation of angiogenesis and fibrosis plays a vital role in cardiac vascularization, hypertrophy, and tissue remodeling. We suggest that the interaction between the inflammatory pathways and cardiac vascularization is a bi-directional process controlled by secreted cytokines and growth factors. The co-coordination of these two processes has never been explored in FD. In a cohort of 40 patients with FD, biomarkers associated with inflammation and cardio hypertrophic remodeling were studied. FD patients were categorized into three groups based on LVmass/DSA, LVEF, and ECG abnormalities: FD with no cardio complication, FD with moderate cardio complication, and severe cardio complication. Serum levels of NF-kB, TNFalpha, Il-6, Il-2, MCP1, ING-gamma, VEGF, IGF-1, TGFβ, and FGF2 were quantified by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA). Among the biomarkers, MCP-1, INF-gamma, VEGF, TNF-alpha, and TGF-beta were elevated in FD patients. Some of these biomarkers also have the potential to correlate with cardio pathology in FD. Conclusion: The study provides information about the role of inflammatory pathways and biomarkers of cardio hypertrophic remodeling in FD patients. This study will also reveal the mechanisms that link intracellular accumulation of Lyso-GB-3 and Gb3 to the development of cardiomyopathy with myocardial thickening and resultant fibrosis.

Keywords: biomarkers, Fabry disease, inflammation, growth factors

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138 Landslide Hazard a Gigantic Problem in Indian Himalayan Region: Needs In-Depth Research to Minimize Disaster

Authors: Varun Joshi, M. S. Rawat

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The Indian Himalayan Region (IHR) is inherently fragile and susceptible to landslide hazard due to its extremely weak geology, highly rugged topography and heavy monsoonal rainfall. One of the most common hazards in the IHR is landslide, and this event is particularly frequent in Himalayan states of India i.e. Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Sikkim, Manipur and Arunachal Pradesh. Landslides are mostly triggered by extreme rainfall events but the incidence increases during monsoon months (June to September). Natural slopes which are otherwise stable but they get destabilized due to anthropogenic activities like construction of various developmental activities and deforestation. These activities are required to fulfill the developmental needs and upliftment of societal status in the region. Landslides also trigger during major earthquakes and reported most observable and damaging phenomena. Studies indicate that the landslide phenomenon has increased many folds due to developmental activities in Himalayan region. Gradually increasing and devastating consequences of landslides turned into one of the most important hydro-geological hazards in Himalayan states especially in Uttarakhand and Sikkim states of India. The recent most catastrophic rainfall in June 2013 in Uttarakhand lead to colossal loss of life and property. The societal damage due to this incident is still to be recovered even after three years. Sikkim earthquake of September 2011 is witnessed for triggering of large number of coseismic landslides. The rescue and relief team faced huge problem in helping the trapped villagers in remote locations of the state due to road side blockade by landslides. The recent past incidences of landslides in Uttarakhand, as well as Sikkim states, created a new domain of research in terms of understanding the phenomena of landslide and management of disaster in such situation. Every year at many locations landslides trigger which force dwellers to either evacuate their dwelling or lose their life and property. The communication and transportation networks are also severely affected by landslides at several locations. Many times the drinking water supply disturbed and shortage of daily need household items reported during monsoon months. To minimize the severity of landslide in IHR requires in-depth research and developmental planning. For most of the areas in the present study, landslide hazard zonation is done on 1:50,000 scale. The land use planning maps on extensive basis are not available. Therefore, there is a need of large-scale landslide hazard zonation and land use planning maps. If the scientist conduct research on desired aspects and their outcome of research is utilized by the government in developmental planning then the incidents of landslide could be minimized, subsequent impact on society, life and property would be reduced. Along with the scientific research, there is another need of awareness generation in the region for stake holders and local dwellers to combat with the landslide hazard, if triggered in their location.

Keywords: coseismic, Indian Himalayan Region, landslide hazard zonation, Sikkim, societal, Uttarakhand

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137 A Case Study on the Estimation of Design Discharge for Flood Management in Lower Damodar Region, India

Authors: Susmita Ghosh

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Catchment area of Damodar River, India experiences seasonal rains due to the south-west monsoon every year and depending upon the intensity of the storms, floods occur. During the monsoon season, the rainfall in the area is mainly due to active monsoon conditions. The upstream reach of Damodar river system has five dams store the water for utilization for various purposes viz, irrigation, hydro-power generation, municipal supplies and last but not the least flood moderation. But, in the downstream reach of Damodar River, known as Lower Damodar region, is severely and frequently suffering from flood due to heavy monsoon rainfall and also release from upstream reservoirs. Therefore, an effective flood management study is required to know in depth the nature and extent of flood, water logging, and erosion related problems, affected area, and damages in the Lower Damodar region, by conducting mathematical model study. The design flood or discharge is needed to decide to assign the respective model for getting several scenarios from the simulation runs. The ultimate aim is to achieve a sustainable flood management scheme from the several alternatives. there are various methods for estimating flood discharges to be carried through the rivers and their tributaries for quick drainage from inundated areas due to drainage congestion and excess rainfall. In the present study, the flood frequency analysis is performed to decide the design flood discharge of the study area. This, on the other hand, has limitations in respect of availability of long peak flood data record for determining long type of probability density function correctly. If sufficient past records are available, the maximum flood on a river with a given frequency can safely be determined. The floods of different frequency for the Damodar has been calculated by five candidate distributions i.e., generalized extreme value, extreme value-I, Pearson type III, Log Pearson and normal. Annual peak discharge series are available at Durgapur barrage for the period of 1979 to 2013 (35 years). The available series are subjected to frequency analysis. The primary objective of the flood frequency analysis is to relate the magnitude of extreme events to their frequencies of occurrence through the use of probability distributions. The design flood for return periods of 10, 15 and 25 years return period at Durgapur barrage are estimated by flood frequency method. It is necessary to develop flood hydrographs for the above floods to facilitate the mathematical model studies to find the depth and extent of inundation etc. Null hypothesis that the distributions fit the data at 95% confidence is checked with goodness of fit test, i.e., Chi Square Test. It is revealed from the goodness of fit test that the all five distributions do show a good fit on the sample population and is therefore accepted. However, it is seen that there is considerable variation in the estimation of frequency flood. It is therefore considered prudent to average out the results of these five distributions for required frequencies. The inundated area from past data is well matched using this flood.

Keywords: design discharge, flood frequency, goodness of fit, sustainable flood management

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136 Behavioral Patterns of Adopting Digitalized Services (E-Sport versus Sports Spectating) Using Agent-Based Modeling

Authors: Justyna P. Majewska, Szymon M. Truskolaski

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The growing importance of digitalized services in the so-called new economy, including the e-sports industry, can be observed recently. Various demographic or technological changes lead consumers to modify their needs, not regarding the services themselves but the method of their application (attracting customers, forms of payment, new content, etc.). In the case of leisure-related to competitive spectating activities, there is a growing need to participate in events whose content is not sports competitions but computer games challenge – e-sport. The literature in this area so far focuses on determining the number of e-sport fans with elements of a simple statistical description (mainly concerning demographic characteristics such as age, gender, place of residence). Meanwhile, the development of the industry is influenced by a combination of many different, intertwined demographic, personality and psychosocial characteristics of customers, as well as the characteristics of their environment. Therefore, there is a need for a deeper recognition of the determinants of the behavioral patterns upon selecting digitalized services by customers, which, in the absence of available large data sets, can be achieved by using econometric simulations – multi-agent modeling. The cognitive aim of the study is to reveal internal and external determinants of behavioral patterns of customers taking into account various variants of economic development (the pace of digitization and technological development, socio-demographic changes, etc.). In the paper, an agent-based model with heterogeneous agents (characteristics of customers themselves and their environment) was developed, which allowed identifying a three-stage development scenario: i) initial interest, ii) standardization, and iii) full professionalization. The probabilities regarding the transition process were estimated using the Method of Simulated Moments. The estimation of the agent-based model parameters and sensitivity analysis reveals crucial factors that have driven a rising trend in e-sport spectating and, in a wider perspective, the development of digitalized services. Among the psychosocial characteristics of customers, they are the level of familiarization with the rules of games as well as sports disciplines, active and passive participation history and individual perception of challenging activities. Environmental factors include general reception of games, number and level of recognition of community builders and the level of technological development of streaming as well as community building platforms. However, the crucial factor underlying the good predictive power of the model is the level of professionalization. While in the initial interest phase, the entry barriers for new customers are high. They decrease during the phase of standardization and increase again in the phase of full professionalization when new customers perceive participation history inaccessible. In this case, they are prone to switch to new methods of service application – in the case of e-sport vs. sports to new content and more modern methods of its delivery. In a wider context, the findings in the paper support the idea of a life cycle of services regarding methods of their application from “traditional” to digitalized.

Keywords: agent-based modeling, digitalized services, e-sport, spectators motives

Procedia PDF Downloads 147