Search results for: decision tree modeling

Authors: Sergio Celaschi, Henrique Canavarro de Alencar, Claaudecir Biazoli

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Effluent quality is of the highest priority for compliance with the permit limits of environmental protection agencies and ensures the protection of their local water system. Of the pollutants monitored, the biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) posed one of the greatest challenges. This work presents a solution for wastewater treatment plants - WWTP’s ability to react to different situations and meet treatment goals. Delayed BOD5 results from the lab take 7 to 8 analysis days, hindered the WWTP’s ability to react to different situations and meet treatment goals. Reducing BOD turnaround time from days to hours is our quest. Such a solution is based on a system of two BOD bioreactors associated with Digital Twin (DT) and Machine Learning (ML) methodologies via an Internet of Things (IoT) platform to monitor and control a WWTP to support decision making. DT is a virtual and dynamic replica of a production process. DT requires the ability to collect and store real-time sensor data related to the operating environment. Furthermore, it integrates and organizes the data on a digital platform and applies analytical models allowing a deeper understanding of the real process to catch sooner anomalies. In our system of continuous time monitoring of the BOD suppressed by the effluent treatment process, the DT algorithm for analyzing the data uses ML on a chemical kinetic parameterized model. The continuous BOD monitoring system, capable of providing results in a fraction of the time required by BOD5 analysis, is composed of two thermally isolated batch bioreactors. Each bioreactor contains input/output access to wastewater sample (influent and effluent), hydraulic conduction tubes, pumps, and valves for batch sample and dilution water, air supply for dissolved oxygen (DO) saturation, cooler/heater for sample thermal stability, optical ODO sensor based on fluorescence quenching, pH, ORP, temperature, and atmospheric pressure sensors, local PLC/CPU for TCP/IP data transmission interface. The dynamic BOD system monitoring range covers 2 mg/L < BOD < 2,000 mg/L. In addition to the BOD monitoring system, there are many other operational WWTP sensors. The CPU data is transmitted/received to/from the digital platform, which in turn performs analyses at periodic intervals, aiming to feed the learning process. BOD bulletins and their credibility intervals are made available in 12-hour intervals to web users. The chemical kinetics ML algorithm is composed of a coupled system of four first-order ordinary differential equations for the molar masses of DO, organic material present in the sample, biomass, and products (CO₂ and H₂O) of the reaction. This system is solved numerically linked to its initial conditions: DO (saturated) and initial products of the kinetic oxidation process; CO₂ = H₂0 = 0. The initial values for organic matter and biomass are estimated by the method of minimization of the mean square deviations. A real case of continuous monitoring of BOD wastewater effluent quality is being conducted by deploying an IoT application on a large wastewater purification system located in S. Paulo, Brazil.

Keywords: effluent treatment, biochemical oxygen demand, continuous monitoring, IoT, machine learning

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Authors: Ousmane Sarr

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The Senegalese coasts have high productivity of fishery resources due to the frequency of intense up-welling system that occurs along its coast, caused by the maritime trade winds making its waters nutrients rich. Fishing plays a primordial role in Senegal's socioeconomic plans and food security. However, a global diagnosis of the Senegalese maritime fishing sector has highlighted the challenges this sector encounters. Among these concerns, some significant stocks, a priority target for artisanal fishing, need further assessment. If no efforts are made in this direction, most stock will be overexploited or even in decline. It is in this context that this research was initiated. This investigation aimed to apply a multi-modal approach (LBB, Catch-only-based CMSY model and its most recent version (CMSY++); JABBA, and JABBA-Select) to assess the stock of Atlantic bonito, Sarda sarda (Bloch, 1793) in the Senegalese Exclusive Economic Zone (SEEZ). Available catch, effort, and size data from Atlantic bonito over 15 years (2004-2018) were used to calculate the nominal and standardized CPUE, size-frequency distribution, and length at retentions (50 % and 95 % selectivity) of the species. These relevant results were employed as input parameters for stock assessment models mentioned above to define the stock status of this species in this region of the Atlantic Ocean. The LBB model indicated an Atlantic bonito healthy stock status with B/BMSY values ranging from 1.3 to 1.6 and B/B0 values varying from 0.47 to 0.61 of the main scenarios performed (BON_AFG_CL, BON_GN_Length, and BON_PS_Length). The results estimated by LBB are consistent with those obtained by CMSY. The CMSY model results demonstrate that the SEEZ Atlantic bonito stock is in a sound condition in the final year of the main scenarios analyzed (BON, BON-bt, BON-GN-bt, and BON-PS-bt) with sustainable relative stock biomass (B2018/BMSY = 1.13 to 1.3) and fishing pressure levels (F2018/FMSY= 0.52 to 1.43). The B/BMSY and F/FMSY results for the JABBA model ranged between 2.01 to 2.14 and 0.47 to 0.33, respectively. In contrast, The estimated B/BMSY and F/FMSY for JABBA-Select ranged from 1.91 to 1.92 and 0.52 to 0.54. The Kobe plots results of the base case scenarios ranged from 75% to 89% probability in the green area, indicating sustainable fishing pressure and an Atlantic bonito healthy stock size capable of producing high yields close to the MSY. Based on the stock assessment results, this study highlighted scientific advice for temporary management measures. This study suggests an improvement of the selectivity parameters of longlines and purse seines and a temporary prohibition of the use of sleeping nets in the fishery for the Atlantic bonito stock in the SEEZ based on the results of the length-base models. Although these actions are temporary, they can be essential to reduce or avoid intense pressure on the Atlantic bonito stock in the SEEZ. However, it is necessary to establish harvest control rules to provide coherent and solid scientific information that leads to appropriate decision-making for rational and sustainable exploitation of Atlantic bonito in the SEEZ and the Eastern Atlantic Ocean.

Keywords: multi-model approach, stock assessment, atlantic bonito, healthy stock, sustainable, SEEZ, temporary management measures

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Authors: Alexandra Cheira

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Cultural appropriation has been theorised as a form of colonialism in which members of a dominant culture reduce cultural elements that are deeply meaningful to a minority culture to the category of the “exotic other” since they do not experience the oppression and discriminations faced by members of the minority culture. Yet, in the particular case of literature, writers such as Lionel Shriver and Bernardine Evaristo have argued that authors from a cultural majority have a right to write in the voice of someone from a cultural minority, hence attacking the idea that this is a form of cultural appropriation. By definition, Shriver and Evaristo claim, writers are supposed to write beyond their own culture, gender, class, and/ or race. In this light, this paper discusses the limits of cultural appropriation vis-à-vis the ethics of narrative empathy by addressing the mixed critical reception of Kathryn Stockett’s The Help (2009) and Jeanine Cummins’s American Dirt (2020). In fact, both novels were acclaimed as global eye-openers regarding the struggles of respectively South American migrants and African American maids. At the same time, both novelists have been accused of cultural appropriation by telling a story that is not theirs to tell, given the fact that they are white women telling these stories in what critics have argued is really an American voice telling a story to American readers.These claims will be investigated within the framework of Edward Said’s foundational examination of Orientalism in the field of postcolonial studies as a Western style for authoritatively restructuring the Orient. This means that Orientalist stereotypes regarding Eastern cultures have implicitly validated colonial and imperial pursuits, in the specific context of literary representations of African American and Mexican cultures by white writers. At the same time, the conflicted reception of American Dirt and The Help will be examined within the critical framework of narrative empathy as theorised by Suzanne Keen. Hence, there will be a particular focus on the way a reader’s heated perception that the author’s perspective is purely dishonest can result from a friction between an author’s intention and a reader’s experience of narrative empathy, while a shared sense of empathy between authors and readers can be a rousing momentum to move beyond literary response to social action.Finally, in order to assess that “the key question should not be who can write about whom, but how the writer tells the story”, the recent controversy surrounding Dutch author Marieke Lucas Rijneveld’s decision to resign the translation of American poet Amanda Gorman’s work into Dutch will be duly investigated. In fact, Rijneveld stepped out after journalist and activist Janice Deul criticised Dutch publisher Meulenhoff for choosing a translator who was not also Black, despite the fact that 22-year-old Gorman had selected the 29-year-old Rijneveld herself, as a fellow young writer who had likewise come to fame early on in life. In this light, the critical argument that the controversial reception of The Help reveals as much about US race relations in the early twenty-first century as about the complex literary transactions between individual readers and the novel itself will also be discussed in the extended context of American Dirt and white author Marieke Rijneveld’s withdrawal from the projected translation of Black poet Amanda Gorman.

Keywords: cultural appropriation, cultural stereotypes, narrative empathy, race relations

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Authors: Ashleigh Williams

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Micro- and nanoplastics’ (MNLPs) omnipresence and ecological accumulation is evident when surveying recent environmental impact studies. For example, in 2014 it was estimated that at least 52.3 trillion plastic microparticles are floating at sea, and scientists have even found plastics present remote Arctic ice and snow (5,6). Plastics have even found their way into precipitation, with more than 1000 tons of microplastic rain precipitating onto the Western United States in 2020. Even more recent studies evaluating the chemical safety of reusable plastic bottles found that hundreds of chemicals leached into the control liquid in the bottle (ddH2O, ph = 7) during a 24-hour time period. A consequence of the increased abundance in plastic waste in the air, land, and water every year is the bioaccumulation of MNLPs in ecosystems and trophic niches of the animal food chain, which could potentially cause increased direct and indirect exposure of humans to MNLPs via inhalation, ingestion, and dermal contact. Though the detrimental, toxic effects of MNLPs have been established in marine biota, much less is known about the potentially hazardous health effects of chronic MNLP ingestion in humans. Recent data indicate that long-term exposure to MNLPs could cause possible inflammatory and dysbiotic effects. However, toxicity seems to be largely dose-, as well as size-dependent. In addition, the transcytotic uptake of MNLPs through the intestinal epithelia in humans remain relatively unknown. To this point, the goal of the current study was to investigate the mechanisms of micro- and nanoplastic uptake and transcytosis of Polystyrene (PE) in human stem-cell derived, physiologically relevant in vitro intestinal model systems, and to compare the relative effect of particle size (30 nm, 100 nm, 500 nm and 1 µm), and concentration (0 µg/mL, 250 µg/mL, 500 µg/mL, 1000 µg/mL) on polystyrene MNLP uptake, transcytosis and intestinal epithelial model integrity. Observational and quantitative data obtained from confocal microscopy, immunostaining, transepithelial electrical resistance (TEER) measurements, cryosectioning, and ELISA cytokine assays of the proinflammatory cytokines Interleukin-6 and Interleukin-8 were used to evaluate the localization and transcytosis of polystyrene MNPs and its impact on epithelial integrity in human-derived intestinal in vitro model systems. The effect of Microfold (M) cell induction on polystyrene micro- and nanoparticle (MNP) uptake, transcytosis, and potential inflammation was also assessed and compared to samples grown under standard conditions. Microfold (M) cells, link the human intestinal system to the immune system and are the primary cells in the epithelium responsible for sampling and transporting foreign matter of interest from the lumen of the gut to underlying immune cells. Given the uptake capabilities of Microfold cells to interact both specifically and nonspecific to abiotic and biotic materials, it was expected that M- cell induced in vitro samples would have increased binding, localization, and potentially transcytosis of Polystyrene MNLPs across the epithelial barrier. Experimental results of this study would not only help in the evaluation of the plastic toxicity, but would allow for more detailed modeling of gut inflammation and the intestinal immune system.

Keywords: nanoplastics, enteroids, intestinal barrier, tissue engineering, microfold (M) cells

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Authors: Michael Josef Schwerer

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Background: Analyzing any aircraft accident is mandatory based on the regulations of the International Civil Aviation Organization and the respective country’s criminal prosecution authorities. Legal medicine investigations are unavoidable when fatalities involve the flight crew or when doubts arise concerning the pilot’s aeromedical health status before the event. As a result of frequently tremendous blunt and sharp force trauma along with the impact of the aircraft to the ground, consecutive blast or fire exposition of the occupants or putrefaction of the dead bodies in cases of delayed recovery, relevant findings can be masked or destroyed and therefor being inaccessible in standard pathology practice comprising just forensic autopsy and histopathology. Such cases are of considerable risk of remaining unsolved without legal consequences for those responsible. Further, no lessons can be drawn from these scenarios to improve flight safety and prevent future mishaps. Aims and Methods: To learn from previously unsolved aircraft accidents, re-evaluations of the investigation files and modern molecular pathology studies were performed. Genetic testing involved predominantly PCR-based analysis of gene regulation, studying DNA promotor methylations, RNA transcription and posttranscriptional regulation. In addition, the presence or absence of infective agents, particularly DNA- and RNA-viruses, was studied. Technical adjustments of molecular genetic procedures when working with archived sample material were necessary. Standards for the proper interpretation of the respective findings had to be settled. Results and Discussion: Additional molecular genetic testing significantly contributes to the quality of forensic pathology assessment in aviation mishaps. Previously undetected cardiotropic viruses potentially explain e.g., a pilot’s sudden incapacitation resulting from cardiac failure or myocardial arrhythmia. In contrast, negative results for infective agents participate in ruling out concerns about an accident pilot’s fitness to fly and the aeromedical examiner’s precedent decision to issue him or her an aeromedical certificate. Care must be taken in the interpretation of genetic testing for pre-existing diseases such as hypertrophic cardiomyopathy or ischemic heart disease. Molecular markers such as mRNAs or miRNAs, which can establish these diagnoses in clinical patients, might be misleading in-flight crew members because of adaptive changes in their tissues resulting from repeated mild hypoxia during flight, for instance. Military pilots especially demonstrate significant physiological adjustments to their somatic burdens in flight, such as cardiocirculatory stress and air combat maneuvers. Their non-pathogenic alterations in gene regulation and expression will likely be misinterpreted for genuine disease by inexperienced investigators. Conclusions: The growing influence of molecular pathology on legal medicine practice has found its way into aircraft accident investigation. As appropriate quality standards for laboratory work and data interpretation are provided, forensic genetic testing supports the medico-legal analysis of aviation mishaps and potentially reduces the number of unsolved events in the future.

Keywords: aviation medicine, aircraft accident investigation, forensic pathology, molecular pathology

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Authors: André Python

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To this day, terrorism persists as a worldwide threat, exemplified by the recent deadly attacks in January 2015 in Paris and the ongoing massacres perpetrated by ISIS in Iraq and Syria. In response to this threat, states deploy various counterterrorism measures, the cost of which could be reduced through effective preventive measures. In order to increase the efficiency of preventive measures, policy-makers may benefit from accurate predictive models that are able to capture the complex spatial dynamics of terrorism occurring at a local scale. Despite empirical research carried out at country-level that has confirmed theories explaining the diffusion processes of terrorism across space and time, scholars have failed to assess diffusion’s theories on a local scale. Moreover, since scholars have not made the most of recent statistical modelling approaches, they have been unable to build up predictive models accurate in both space and time. In an effort to address these shortcomings, this research suggests a novel approach to systematically assess the theories of terrorism’s diffusion on a local scale and provide a predictive model of the local spatial dynamics of terrorism worldwide. With a focus on the lethal terrorist events that occurred after 9/11, this paper addresses the following question: why and how does lethal terrorism diffuse in space and time? Based on geolocalised data on worldwide terrorist attacks and covariates gathered from 2002 to 2013, a binomial spatio-temporal point process is used to model the probability of terrorist attacks on a sphere (the world), the surface of which is discretised in the form of Delaunay triangles and refined in areas of specific interest. Within a Bayesian framework, the model is fitted through an integrated nested Laplace approximation - a recent fitting approach that computes fast and accurate estimates of posterior marginals. Hence, for each location in the world, the model provides a probability of encountering a lethal terrorist attack and measures of volatility, which inform on the model’s predictability. Diffusion processes are visualised through interactive maps that highlight space-time variations in the probability and volatility of encountering a lethal attack from 2002 to 2013. Based on the previous twelve years of observation, the location and lethality of terrorist events in 2014 are statistically accurately predicted. Throughout the global scope of this research, local diffusion processes such as escalation and relocation are systematically examined: the former process describes an expansion from high concentration areas of lethal terrorist events (hotspots) to neighbouring areas, while the latter is characterised by changes in the location of hotspots. By controlling for the effect of geographical, economical and demographic variables, the results of the model suggest that the diffusion processes of lethal terrorism are jointly driven by contagious and non-contagious factors that operate on a local scale – as predicted by theories of diffusion. Moreover, by providing a quantitative measure of predictability, the model prevents policy-makers from making decisions based on highly uncertain predictions. Ultimately, this research may provide important complementary tools to enhance the efficiency of policies that aim to prevent and combat terrorism.

Keywords: diffusion process, terrorism, spatial dynamics, spatio-temporal modeling

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Authors: Amna Tariq Shah

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Amid the pandemic, the contemporary landscape has experienced accelerated growth in small business activities and an expanding digital marketplace, further exacerbating the issue of non-compliance among self-employed individuals through aggressive tax planning and evasion. This research seeks to address these challenges by developing strategic tax policies that promote voluntary compliance and improve taxpayer facilitation. The study employs the innovative MINDSPACE framework to examine three psychosocial factors—tax communication, tax literacy, and shaming—to optimize policy responses, address administrative shortcomings, and ensure adequate revenue collection for public goods and services. Preliminary findings suggest that incomprehensible communication from tax authorities drives individuals to seek alternative, potentially biased sources of tax information, thereby exacerbating non-compliance. Furthermore, the study reveals low tax literacy among Australian and Pakistani respondents, with many struggling to navigate complex tax processes and comprehend tax laws. Consequently, policy recommendations include simplifying tax return filing and enhancing pre-populated tax returns. In terms of shaming, the research indicates that Australians, being an individualistic society, may not respond well to shaming techniques due to privacy concerns. In contrast, Pakistanis, as a collectivistic society, may be more receptive to naming and shaming approaches. The study employs a mixed-method approach, utilizing interviews and surveys to analyze the issue in both jurisdictions. The use of mixed methods allows for a more comprehensive understanding of tax compliance behavior, combining the depth of qualitative insights with the generalizability of quantitative data, ultimately leading to more robust and well-informed policy recommendations. By examining evidence from opposite jurisdictions, namely a developed country (Australia) and a developing country (Pakistan), the study's applicability is enhanced, providing perspectives from two disparate contexts that offer insights from opposite ends of the economic, cultural, and social spectra. The non-comparative case study methodology offers valuable insights into human behavior, which can be applied to other jurisdictions as well. The application of the MINDSPACE framework in this research is particularly significant, as it introduces a novel approach to tax compliance behavior analysis. By integrating insights from behavioral economics, the framework enables a comprehensive understanding of the psychological and social factors influencing taxpayer decision-making, facilitating the development of targeted and effective policy interventions. This research carries substantial importance as it addresses critical challenges in tax compliance and administration, with far-reaching implications for revenue collection and the provision of public goods and services. By investigating the psychosocial factors that influence taxpayer behavior and utilizing the MINDSPACE framework, the study contributes invaluable insights to the field of tax policy. These insights can inform policymakers and tax administrators in developing more effective tax policies that enhance taxpayer facilitation, address administrative obstacles, promote a more equitable and efficient tax system, and foster voluntary compliance, ultimately strengthening the financial foundation of governments and communities.

Keywords: individual tax compliance behavior, psychosocial factors, tax non-compliance, tax policy

Procedia PDF Downloads 47

Authors: Farwa Rizvi, Joanne Williams, Humaira Maheen, Elizabeth Hoban

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There is an increase in risky sexual behavior and unsafe sex in adolescent girls and young women aged 15 to 24 years in Cambodia, which negatively affects their reproductive health by increasing the risk of contracting sexually transmitted infections and unintended pregnancies. Risky sexual behavior includes ‘having sex at an early age, having multiple sexual partners, having sex while under the influence of alcohol or drugs, and unprotected sexual behaviors’. A systematic review of quantitative research conducted in Cambodia was undertaken, using the theoretical framework of the Social Ecological Model to identify the personal, social and cultural factors associated with risky sexual behavior and unsafe sex in young Cambodian women. PRISMA guidelines were used to search databases including Medline Complete, PsycINFO, CINAHL Complete, Academic Search Complete, Global Health, and Social Work Abstracts. Additional searches were conducted in Science Direct, Google Scholar and in the grey literature sources. A risk-of-bias tool developed explicitly for the systematic review of cross-sectional studies was used. Summary item on the overall risk of study bias after the inter-rater response showed that the risk-of-bias was high in two studies, moderate in one study and low in one study. The search strategy included a combination of subject terms and free text terms. The medical subject headings (MeSH) terms included were; contracept* or ‘birth control’ or ‘family planning’ or pregnan* or ‘safe sex’ or ‘protected intercourse’ or ‘unprotected intercourse’ or ‘protected sex’ or ‘unprotected sex’ or ‘risky sexual behaviour*’ or ‘abort*’ or ‘planned parenthood’ or ‘unplanned pregnancy’ AND ( barrier* or obstacle* or challenge* or knowledge or attitude* or factor* or determinant* or choic* or uptake or discontinu* or acceptance or satisfaction or ‘needs assessment’ or ‘non-use’ or ‘unmet need’ or ‘decision making’ ) AND Cambodia*. Initially, 300 studies were identified by using key words and finally, four quantitative studies were selected based on the inclusion criteria. The four studies were published between 2010 and 2016. The study participants ranged in age from 10-24 years, single or married, with 3 to 10 completed years of education. The mean age at sexual debut was reported to be 18 years. Using the perspective of the Social Ecological Model, risky sexual behavior was associated with individual-level factors including young age at sexual debut, low education, unsafe sex under the influence of alcohol and substance abuse, multiple sexual partners or transactional sex. Family level factors included living away from parents, orphan status and low levels of family support. Peer and partner level factors included peer delinquency and lack of condom use. Low socioeconomic status at the society level was also associated with risky sexual behaviour. There is scant research on sexual and reproductive health of adolescent girls and young women in Cambodia. Individual, family and social factors were significantly associated with risky sexual behaviour. More research is required to inform potential preventive strategies and policies that address young women’s sexual and reproductive health.

Keywords: adolescents, high-risk sex, sexual activity, unplanned pregnancies

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Authors: Peregrine James Dalziel, Philip Vu Tran

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Objective / Introduction: Demand for radiology services from Emergency Departments (ED) continues to increase with greater demands placed on radiology staff providing reports for the management of complex cases. Queuing theory indicates that wide variability of process time with the random nature of request arrival increases the probability of significant queues. This can lead to delays in the time-to-availability of radiology reports (TTA-RR) and potentially impaired ED patient flow. In addition, greater “cognitive workload” of greater volume may lead to reduced productivity and increased errors. We sought to quantify the potential ED flow improvements obtainable from increased radiology providers serving 3 public hospitals in Melbourne Australia. We sought to assess the potential productivity gains, quality improvement and the cost-effectiveness of increased labor inputs. Methods & Materials: The Western Health Medical Imaging Department moved from single resident coverage on weekend days 8:30 am-10:30 pm to a limited period of 2 resident coverage 1 pm-6 pm on both weekend days. The TTA-RR for weekend CT scans was calculated from the PACs database for the 8 month period symmetrically around the date of staffing change. A multivariate linear regression model was developed to isolate the improvement in TTA-RR, between the two 4-months periods. Daily and hourly scan volume at the time of each CT scan was calculated to assess the impact of varying department workload. To assess any improvement in report quality/errors a random sample of 200 studies was assessed to compare the average number of clinically significant over-read addendums to reports between the 2 periods. Cost-effectiveness was assessed by comparing the marginal cost of additional staffing against a conservative estimate of the economic benefit of improved ED patient throughput using the Australian national insurance rebate for private ED attendance as a revenue proxy. Results: The primary resident on call and the type of scan accounted for most of the explained variability in time to report availability (R2=0.29). Increasing daily volume and hourly volume was associated with increased TTA-RR (1.5m (p<0.01) and 4.8m (p<0.01) respectively per additional scan ordered within each time frame. Reports were available 25.9 minutes sooner on average in the 4 months post-implementation of double coverage (p<0.01) with additional 23.6 minutes improvement when 2 residents were on-site concomitantly (p<0.01). The aggregate average improvement in TTA-RR was 24.8 hours per weekend day This represents the increased decision-making time available to ED physicians and potential improvement in ED bed utilisation. 5% of reports from the intervention period contained clinically significant addendums vs 7% in the single resident period but this was not statistically significant (p=0.7). The marginal cost was less than the anticipated economic benefit based assuming a 50% capture of improved TTA-RR inpatient disposition and using the lowest available national insurance rebate as a proxy for economic benefit. Conclusion: TTA-RR improved significantly during the period of increased staff availability, both during the specific period of increased staffing and throughout the day. Increased labor utilisation is cost-effective compared with the potential improved productivity for ED cases requiring CT imaging.

Keywords: workflow, quality, administration, CT, staffing

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Authors: Jose L. Diego, Antonio Berlanga, Gregorio López, Diana López

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The Rayuela method is a success story, as it is part of a project selected by the European Commission to face the challenge launched by itself for achieving a better understanding of human factors, as well as social and organisational aspects that are able to solve issues in fighting against crime. Rayuela's method specifically focuses on the drivers of cyber criminality, including approaches to prevent, investigate, and mitigate cybercriminal behavior. As the internet has become an integral part of young people’s lives, they are the key target of the Rayuela method because they (as a victim or as a perpetrator) are the most vulnerable link of the chain. Considering the increased time spent online and the control of their internet usage and the low level of awareness of cyber threats and their potential impact, it is understandable the proliferation of incidents due to human mistakes. 51% of Europeans feel not well informed about cyber threats, and 86% believe that the risk of becoming a victim of cybercrime is rapidly increasing. On the other hand, Law enforcement has noted that more and more young people are increasingly committing cybercrimes. This is an international problem that has considerable cost implications; it is estimated that crimes in cyberspace will cost the global economy $445B annually. Understanding all these phenomena drives to the necessity of a shift in focus from sanctions to deterrence and prevention. As a research project, Rayuela aims to bring together law enforcement agencies (LEAs), sociologists, psychologists, anthropologists, legal experts, computer scientists, and engineers, to develop novel methodologies that allow better understanding the factors affecting online behavior related to new ways of cyber criminality, as well as promoting the potential of these young talents for cybersecurity and technologies. Rayuela’s main goal is to better understand the drivers and human factors affecting certain relevant ways of cyber criminality, as well as empower and educate young people in the benefits, risks, and threats intrinsically linked to the use of the Internet by playing, thus preventing and mitigating cybercriminal behavior. In order to reach that goal it´s necessary an interdisciplinary consortium (formed by 17 international partners) carries out researches and actions like Profiling and case studies of cybercriminals and victims, risk assessments, studies on Internet of Things and its vulnerabilities, development of a serious gaming environment, training activities, data analysis and interpretation using Artificial intelligence, testing and piloting, etc. For facilitating the real implementation of the Rayuela method, as a community policing strategy, is crucial to count on a Police Force with a solid background in trust-building and community policing in order to do the piloting, specifically with young people. In this sense, Valencia Local Police is a pioneer Police Force working with young people in conflict solving, through providing police mediation and peer mediation services and advice. As an example, it is an official mediation institution, so agreements signed by their police mediators have once signed by the parties, the value of a judicial decision.

Keywords: fight against crime and insecurity, avert and prepare young people against aggression, ICT, serious gaming and artificial intelligence against cybercrime, conflict solving and mediation with young people

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Authors: Margaret Boone Rappaport, Christopher J. Corbally

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The ancient ape ancestral population from which living great ape and human species evolved had demographic features affecting their evolution. The population was large, had great genetic variability, and natural selection was effective at honing adaptations. The emerging populations of chimpanzees and humans were affected more by founder effects and genetic drift because they were smaller. Natural selection did not disappear, but it was not as strong. Consequences of the 'population crash' and the human effective population size are introduced briefly. The history of the ancient apes is written in the genomes of living humans and great apes. The expansion of the brain began before the human line emerged. Coalescence times for some genes are very old – up to several million years, long before Homo sapiens. The mismatch between gene trees and species trees highlights the anthropoid speciation processes, and gives the human genome history a fuzzy, probabilistic quality. However, it suggests traits that might form a foundation for capacities emerging later. A theoretical model is presented in which the genomes of early ape populations provide the substructure for the emergence of religious capacity later on the human line. The model does not search for religion, but its foundations. It suggests a course by which an evolutionary line that began with prosimians eventually produced a human species with biologically based religious capacity. The model of the sequential emergence of religious capacity relies on cognitive science, neuroscience, paleoneurology, primate field studies, cognitive archaeology, genomics, and population genetics. And, it emphasizes five trait types: (1) Documented, positive selection of sensory capabilities on the human line may have favored survival, but also eventually enriched human religious experience. (2) The bonobo model suggests a possible down-regulation of aggression and increase in tolerance while feeding, as well as paedomorphism – but, in a human species that remains cognitively sharp (unlike the bonobo). The two species emerged from the same ancient ape population, so it is logical to search for shared traits. (3) An up-regulation of emotional sensitivity and compassion seems to have occurred on the human line. This finds support in modern genetic studies. (4) The authors’ published model of morality's emergence in Homo erectus encompasses a cognitively based, decision-making capacity that was hypothetically overtaken, in part, by religious capacity. Together, they produced a strong, variable, biocultural capability to support human sociability. (5) The full flowering of human religious capacity came with the parietal expansion and smaller face (klinorhynchy) found only in Homo sapiens. Details from paleoneurology suggest the stage was set for human theologies. Larger parietal lobes allowed humans to imagine inner spaces, processes, and beings, and, with the frontal lobe, led to the first theologies composed of structured and integrated theories of the relationships between humans and the supernatural. The model leads to the evolution of a small population of African hominins that was ready to emerge with religious capacity when the species Homo sapiens evolved two hundred thousand years ago. By 50-60,000 years ago, when human ancestors left Africa, they were fully enabled.

Keywords: genetic drift, genomics, parietal expansion, religious capacity

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Authors: Rosimeire Araújo Silva, Philip Martin Fearnside

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Extreme droughts and floods in the Amazon have serious consequences for natural ecosystems and the human population in the region. The frequency of these events has increased in recent years, and projections of climate change predict greater frequency and intensity of these events. Understanding the links between these extreme events and different patterns of sea surface temperature in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans is essential, both to improve the modeling of climate change and its consequences and to support efforts of adaptation in the region. The relationship between sea temperatures and events in the Amazon is much more complex than is usually assumed in climatic models. Warming and cooling of different parts of the oceans, as well as the interaction between simultaneous temperature changes in different parts of each ocean and between the two oceans, have specific consequences for the Amazon, with effects on precipitation that vary in different parts of the region. Simplistic generalities, such as the association between El Niño events and droughts in the Amazon, do not capture this complexity. We investigated the variability of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the Tropical Pacific Ocean during the period 1950-2022, using Empirical Orthogonal Functions (FOE), spectral analysis coherence and wavelet phase. The two were identified as the main modes of variability, which explain about 53,9% and 13,3%, respectively, of the total variance of the data. The spectral and coherence analysis and wavelets phase showed that the first selected mode represents the warming in the central part of the Pacific Ocean (the “Central El Niño”), while the second mode represents warming in the eastern part of the Pacific (the “Eastern El Niño The effects of the 1982-1983 and 1976-1977 El Niño events in the Amazon, although both events were characterized by an increase in sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific, the impact on rainfall in the Amazon was distinct. In the rainy season, from December to March, the sub-basins of the Japurá, Jutaí, Jatapu, Tapajós, Trombetas and Xingu rivers were the regions that showed the greatest reductions in rainfall associated with El Niño Central (1982-1983), while the sub-basins of the Javari, Purus, Negro and Madeira rivers had the most pronounced reductions in the year of Eastern El Niño (1976-1977). In the transition to the dry season, in April, the greatest reductions were associated with the Eastern El Niño year for the majority of the study region, with the exception only of the sub-basins of the Madeira, Trombetas and Xingu rivers, which had their associated reductions to Central El Niño. In the dry season from July to September, the sub-basins of the Japurá Jutaí Jatapu Javari Trombetas and Madeira rivers were the rivers that showed the greatest reductions in rainfall associated with El Niño Central, while the sub-basins of the Tapajós Purus Negro and Xingu rivers had the most pronounced reductions. In the Eastern El Niño year this season. In this way, it is possible to conclude that the Central (Eastern) El Niño controlled the reductions in soil moisture in the dry (rainy) season for all sub-basins shown in this study. Extreme drought events associated with these meteorological phenomena can lead to a significant increase in the occurrence of forest fires. These fires have a devastating impact on Amazonian vegetation, resulting in the irreparable loss of biodiversity and the release of large amounts of carbon stored in the forest, contributing to the increase in the greenhouse effect and global climate change.

Keywords: sea surface temperature, variability, climate, Amazon

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Authors: Samira Hamiditehrani

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Automated vehicles (AVs) are emerging technologies that could potentially offer a wide range of opportunities and challenges for the transportation sector. The advent of AV technology has also resulted in new business models in shared mobility services where many ride hailing and car sharing companies are developing on-demand AVs including shared automated vehicles (SAVs) and pooled automated vehicles (Pooled AVs). SAVs and Pooled AVs could provide alternative shared mobility services which encourage sustainable transport systems, mitigate traffic congestion, and reduce automobile dependency. However, the success of on-demand AVs in addressing major transportation policy issues depends on whether and how the public adopts them as regular travel modes. To identify conditions under which individuals may adopt on-demand AVs, previous studies have applied human behavior and technology acceptance theories, where Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) has been validated and is among the most tested in on-demand AV research. In this respect, this study has three objectives: (a) to propose and validate a theoretical model for behavioral intention to use SAVs and Pooled AVs by extending the original TPB model; (b) to identify the characteristics of early adopters of SAVs, who prefer to have a shorter and private ride, versus prospective users of Pooled AVs, who choose more affordable but longer and shared trips; and (c) to investigate Canadians’ intentions to adopt on-demand AVs for regular trips. Toward this end, this study uses data from an online survey (n = 3,622) of workers or adult students (18 to 75 years old) conducted in October and November 2021 for six major Canadian metropolitan areas: Toronto, Vancouver, Ottawa, Montreal, Calgary, and Hamilton. To accomplish the goals of this study, a base bivariate ordered probit model, in which both SAV and Pooled AV adoptions are estimated as ordered dependent variables, alongside a full structural equation modeling (SEM) system are estimated. The findings of this study indicate that affective motivations such as attitude towards AV technology, perceived privacy, and subjective norms, matter more than sociodemographic and travel behavior characteristic in adopting on-demand AVs. Also, the results of second objective provide evidence that although there are a few affective motivations, such as subjective norms and having ample knowledge, that are common between early adopters of SAVs and PooledAVs, many examined motivations differ among SAV and Pooled AV adoption factors. In other words, motivations influencing intention to use on-demand AVs differ among the service types. Likewise, depending on the types of on-demand AVs, the sociodemographic characteristics of early adopters differ significantly. In general, findings paint a complex picture with respect to the application of constructs from common technology adoption models to the study of on-demand AVs. Findings from the final objective suggest that policymakers, planners, the vehicle and technology industries, and the public at large should moderate their expectations that on-demand AVs may suddenly transform the entire transportation sector. Instead, this study suggests that SAVs and Pooled AVs (when they entire the Canadian market) are likely to be adopted as supplementary mobility tools rather than substitutions for current travel modes

Keywords: automated vehicles, Canadian perception, theory of planned behavior, on-demand AVs

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Authors: John E. Boberg, Steven J. Bourgeois

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The decline in student engagement and motivation through the middle years is well documented and clearly associated with a decline in mathematics achievement that persists through high school. To combat this trend and, very often, to meet high-stakes accountability standards, a growing number of parents, teachers, and schools have implemented various methods to incentivize learning. However, according to Self-Determination Theory, forms of incentivized learning such as public praise, tangible rewards, or threats of punishment tend to undermine intrinsic motivation and learning. By focusing on external forms of motivation that thwart autonomy in children, adults also potentially threaten relatedness measures such as trust and emotional engagement. Furthermore, these controlling motivational techniques tend to promote shallow forms of cognitive engagement at the expense of more effective deep processing strategies. Therefore, any short-term gains in apparent engagement or test scores are overshadowed by long-term diminished motivation, resulting in inauthentic approaches to learning and lower achievement. The current study focuses on the relationships between student trust, engagement, and motivation during these crucial years as students transition from elementary to middle school. In order to test the effects of controlled motivational techniques on achievement in mathematics, this quantitative study was conducted on a convenience sample of 22 elementary and middle schools from a single public charter school district in the south-central United States. The study employed multi-source data from students (N = 1,054), parents (N = 7,166), and teachers (N = 356), along with student achievement data and contextual campus variables. Cross-sectional questionnaires were used to measure the students’ self-regulated learning, emotional and cognitive engagement, and trust in teachers. Parents responded to a single item on incentivizing the academic performance of their child, and teachers responded to a series of questions about their acceptance of various incentive strategies. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to evaluate model fit and analyze the direct and indirect effects of the predictor variables on achievement. Although a student’s trust in teacher positively predicted both emotional and cognitive engagement, none of these three predictors accounted for any variance in achievement in mathematics. The parents’ use of incentives, on the other hand, predicted a student’s perception of his or her controlled motivation, and these two variables had significant negative effects on achievement. While controlled motivation had the greatest effects on achievement, parental incentives demonstrated both direct and indirect effects on achievement through the students’ self-reported controlled motivation. Comparing upper elementary student data with middle-school student data revealed that controlling forms of motivation may be taking their toll on student trust and engagement over time. While parental incentives positively predicted both cognitive and emotional engagement in the younger sub-group, such forms of controlling motivation negatively predicted both trust in teachers and emotional engagement in the middle-school sub-group. These findings support the claims, posited by Self-Determination Theory, about the dangers of incentivizing learning. Short-term gains belie the underlying damage to motivational processes that lead to decreased intrinsic motivation and achievement. Such practices also appear to thwart basic human needs such as relatedness.

Keywords: controlled motivation, student engagement, incentivized learning, mathematics achievement, self-determination theory, student trust

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Authors: Catherine Vasnetsov, Victor Vasnetsov

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Context: Thermo-responsive polymers are materials that undergo significant changes in their physical properties in response to temperature changes. These polymers have gained significant attention in research due to their potential applications in various industries and medicine. However, the molecular mechanisms underlying their behavior are not well understood, particularly in relation to cosolvency, which is crucial for practical applications. Research Aim: This study aimed to theoretically investigate the phenomenon of cosolvency in long-chain polymers using the Flory-Huggins statistical-mechanical framework. The main objective was to understand the interactions between the polymer, solvent, and cosolvent under different conditions. Methodology: The research employed a combination of Monte Carlo computer simulations and advanced machine-learning methods. The Flory-Huggins mean field theory was used as the basis for the simulations. Spinodal graphs and ternary plots were utilized to develop an initial computer model for predicting polymer behavior. Molecular dynamic simulations were conducted to mimic real-life polymer systems. Machine learning techniques were incorporated to enhance the accuracy and reliability of the simulations. Findings: The simulations revealed that the addition of very low or very high volumes of cosolvent molecules resulted in smaller radii of gyration for the polymer, indicating poor miscibility. However, intermediate volume fractions of cosolvent led to higher radii of gyration, suggesting improved miscibility. These findings provide a possible microscopic explanation for the cosolvency phenomenon in polymer systems. Theoretical Importance: This research contributes to a better understanding of the behavior of thermo-responsive polymers and the role of cosolvency. The findings provide insights into the molecular mechanisms underlying cosolvency and offer specific predictions for future experimental investigations. The study also presents a more rigorous analysis of the Flory-Huggins free energy theory in the context of polymer systems. Data Collection and Analysis Procedures: The data for this study was collected through Monte Carlo computer simulations and molecular dynamic simulations. The interactions between the polymer, solvent, and cosolvent were analyzed using the Flory-Huggins mean field theory. Machine learning techniques were employed to enhance the accuracy of the simulations. The collected data was then analyzed to determine the impact of cosolvent volume fractions on the radii of gyration of the polymer. Question Addressed: The research addressed the question of how cosolvency affects the behavior of long-chain polymers. Specifically, the study aimed to investigate the interactions between the polymer, solvent, and cosolvent under different volume fractions and understand the resulting changes in the radii of gyration. Conclusion: In conclusion, this study utilized theoretical modeling and computer simulations to investigate the phenomenon of cosolvency in long-chain polymers. The findings suggest that moderate cosolvent volume fractions can lead to improved miscibility, as indicated by higher radii of gyration. These insights contribute to a better understanding of the molecular mechanisms underlying cosolvency in polymer systems and provide predictions for future experimental studies. The research also enhances the theoretical analysis of the Flory-Huggins free energy theory.

Keywords: molecular modelling, flory-huggins, cosolvency, stimuli-responsive polymers

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Authors: Tristance Kee

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With the unprecedented increase in elderly population globally, it is critical to search for new sustainable housing and urban development alternatives to traditional housing options. This research examines concepts of elderly migration pattern in the context of a high density city in Hong Kong to Mainland China. The research objectives are to: 1) explore the relationships between soon-to-be-old elderly and their intentions to move to Mainland upon retirement and their demographic characteristics; and 2) What are the desired amenities, locational factors and activities that are expected in the soon-to-be-old generation’s retirement housing environment? Primary data was collected through questionnaire survey conducted using random sampling method with respondents aged between 45-64 years old. The face-to-face survey was completed by 500 respondents. The survey was divided into four sections. The first section focused on respondent’s demographic information such as gender, age, education attainment, monthly income, housing tenure type and their visits to Mainland China. The second section focused on their retirement plans in terms of intended retirement age, prospective retirement funding and retirement housing options. The third section focused on the respondent’s attitudes toward retiring in Mainland for housing. It asked about their intentions to migrate retire into Mainland and incentives to retire in Hong Kong. The fourth section focused on respondent’s ideal housing environment including preferred housing amenities, desired living environment and retirement activities. The dependent variable in this study was ‘respondent’s consideration to move to Mainland China upon retirement’. Eight primary independent variables were integrated into the study to identify the correlations between them and retirement migration plan. The independent variables include: gender, age, marital status, monthly income, present housing tenure type, property ownership in Hong Kong, relationship with Mainland and the frequency of visiting Mainland China. In addition to the above independent variables, respondents were asked to indicate their retirement plans (retirement age, funding sources and retirement housing options), incentives to migrate to retire (choices included: property ownership, family relations, cost of living, living environment, medical facilities, government welfare benefits, etc.), perceived ideal retirement life qualities including desired amenities (sports, medical and leisure facilities etc.), desired locational qualities (green open space, convenient transport options and accessibility to urban settings etc.) and desired retirement activities (home-based leisure, elderly friendly sports, cultural activities, child care, social activities, etc.). The finding shows correlations between the used independent variables and consideration to migrate for housing options. The two independent variables indicated a possible correlation were gender and the frequency of visiting Mainland at present. When considering the increasing property prices across the border and strong social relationships, potential retirement migration is a very subjective decision that could vary from person to person. This research adds knowledge to housing research and migration study. Although the research is based in Mainland, most of the characteristics identified including better medical services, government welfare and sound urban amenities are shared qualities for all sustainable urban development and housing strategies.

Keywords: elderly migration, housing alternative, soon-to-be-old, sustainable environment

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Authors: Bryan Jenkins

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Introduction: The expansion of irrigation in the Canterbury region has led to the sustainability limits being reached for water availability and the cumulative effects of land use intensification. The institutional framework under New Zealand’s Resource Management Act was found to be an inadequate basis for managing water at sustainability limits. An alternative paradigm for water management was developed based on collaborative governance and nested adaptive systems. This led to the formulation and implementation of the Canterbury Water Management Strategy. Methods: The nested adaptive system approach was adopted. Sustainability issues were identified at multiple spatial and time scales and defined potential failure pathways for the water resource system. These included biophysical and socio-economic issues such as water availability, cumulative effects on water quality due to land use intensification, projected changes in climate, public health, institutional arrangements, economic outcomes and externalities, and, social effects of changing technology. This led to the derivation of sustainability strategies to address these failure pathways. The collaborative governance approach involved stakeholder participation and community engagement to decide on a regional strategy; regional and zone committees of community and rūnanga (Māori groups) members to develop implementation programmes for the strategy; and, farmer collectives for operational management. Findings: The strategy identified improvements in the efficiency of use of water already allocated was more effective in improving water availability than a reliance on increased storage alone. New forms of storage with less adverse impacts were introduced, such as managed aquifer recharge and off-river storage. Reductions of nutrients from land use intensification by improving management practices has been a priority. Solutions packages for addressing the degradation of vulnerable lakes and rivers have been prepared. Biodiversity enhancement projects have been initiated. Greater involvement of Māori has led to the incorporation of kaitiakitanga (resource stewardship) into implementation programmes. Emerging issues are the need for improved integration of surface water and groundwater interactions, increased use of modelling of water and financial outcomes to guide decision making, and, equity in allocation among existing users as well as between existing and future users. Conclusions: However, sustainability analysis indicates that the proposed levels of management interventions are not sufficient to achieve community targets for water management. There is a need for more proactive recovery and rehabilitation measures. Managing to environmental limits is not sufficient, rather managing adaptive cycles is needed. Better measurement and management of water use efficiency is required. Proposed implementation packages are not sufficient to deliver desired water quality outcomes. Greater attention to targets important to environmental and recreational interests is needed to maintain trust in the collaborative process. Implementation programmes don’t adequately address climate change adaptations and greenhouse gas mitigation. Affordability is a constraint on adaptive capacity of farmers and communities. More funding mechanisms are required to implement proactive measures. The legislative and institutional framework needs to be changed to incorporate water framework legislation, regional sustainability strategies and water infrastructure coordination.

Keywords: collaborative governance, irrigation management, nested adaptive systems, sustainable water management

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Authors: Ahmad Saad, Shuja Abbas, Breanna Marine

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Introduction: This study explores the potential applications of autologous pedal fat pad grafting as a minimally invasive therapeutic strategy for addressing pedal fat pad loss. Without adequate shock absorbing tissue, a patient can experience functional deficits, ulcerations, loss of quality of life, and significant limitations with ambulation. This study details a novel technique involving autologous adipose grafting from the abdomen to enhance plantar fat pad thickness in a patient involved in a severe motor vehicle accident which resulted in total fat pad loss of the heel. Autologous adipose grafting (AAG) was used following adipose allografting in an effort to recreate a normal shock absorbing surface to allow return to activities of daily living and painless ambulation. Methods: A 46-year-old male sustained multiple open pedal fractures and necrosis to the heel fat pad after a motorcycle accident, which resulted in complete loss of the calcaneal fat pad. The patient underwent serial debridement’s, utilization of wound vac therapy and split thickness skin grafting to accomplish complete closure, despite complete loss of adipose to area. Patient presented with complaints of pain on ambulation, inability to bear weight on the heel, recurrent ulcerations, admitted had not been ambulating for two years. Clinical exam demonstrated complete loss of the plantar fat pad with a thin layer of epithelial tissue overlying the calcaneal bone, allowing visibility of the osseous contour of the calcaneus. Scar tissue had formed in place of the fat pad, with thickened epithelial tissue extending from the midfoot to the calcaneus. After conservative measures were exhausted, the patient opted for initial management by adipose allograft matrix (AAM) injections. Post operative X-ray imaging revealed noticeable improvement in calcaneal fat pad thickness. At 1 year follow up, the patient was able to ambulate without assistive devices. The fat pad at this point was significantly thicker than it was pre-operatively, but the thickness did not restore to pre-accident thickness. In order to compare the take of allograft versus autografting of adipose tissue, the decision to use adipose autograft through abdominal liposuction harvesting was deemed suitable. A general surgeon completed harvesting of adipose cells from the patient’s abdomen via liposuction, and a podiatric surgeon performed the AAG injection into the heel. Total of 15 cc’s of autologous adipose tissue injected to the calcaneus. Results: There was a visual increase in the calcaneal fat pad thickness both clinically and radiographically. At the 6-week follow up, imaging revealed retention of the calcaneal fat pad thickness. Three months postop, patient returned to activities of daily living and increased quality of life due to their increased ability to ambulate. Discussion: AAG is a novel treatment for pedal fat pad loss. These treatments may be viable and reproducible therapeutic choices for patients suffering from fat pad atrophy, fat pad loss, and/or plantar ulcerations. Both treatments of AAM and AAG exhibited similar therapeutic results by providing pain relief for ambulation and allowing for patients to return to their quality of life.

Keywords: podiatry, wound, adipose, allograft, autograft, wound care, limb reconstruction, injection, limb salvage

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Authors: Lionel Trovalet, Lisa Liu, Dimitri Bigot, Nadia Hammami, Jean-Pierre Habas, Bruno Malet-Damour

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The MCP-iBAT1 project is carried out to study the behavior of Phase Change Materials (PCM) integrated in building envelopes in a tropical environment. Through the phase transitions (melting and freezing) of the material, thermal energy can be absorbed or released. This process enables the regulation of indoor temperatures and the improvement of thermal comfort for the occupants. Most of the commercially available PCMs are more suitable to temperate climates than to tropical climates. The case of Reunion Island is noteworthy as there are multiple micro-climates. This leads to our key question: developing one or multiple bio-based PCMs that cover the thermal needs of the different locations of the island. The present paper focuses on the numerical approach to select the PCM properties relevant to tropical areas. Numerical simulations have been carried out with two softwares: EnergyPlusTM and Isolab. The latter has been developed in the laboratory, with the implicit Finite Difference Method, in order to evaluate different physical models. Both are Thermal Dynamic Simulation (TDS) softwares that predict the building’s thermal behavior with one-dimensional heat transfers. The parameters used in this study are the construction’s characteristics (dimensions and materials) and the environment’s description (meteorological data and building surroundings). The building is modeled in accordance with the experimental setup. It is divided into two rooms, cells A and B, with same dimensions. Cell A is the reference, while in cell B, a layer of commercial PCM (Thermo Confort of MCI Technologies) has been applied to the inner surface of the North wall. Sensors are installed in each room to retrieve temperatures, heat flows, and humidity rates. The collected data are used for the comparison with the numerical results. Our strategy is to implement two similar buildings at different altitudes (Saint-Pierre: 70m and Le Tampon: 520m) to measure different temperature ranges. Therefore, we are able to collect data for various seasons during a condensed time period. The following methodology is used to validate the numerical models: calibration of the thermal and PCM models in EnergyPlusTM and Isolab based on experimental measures, then numerical testing with a sensitivity analysis of the parameters to reach the targeted indoor temperatures. The calibration relies on the past ten months’ measures (from September 2020 to June 2021), with a focus on one-week study on November (beginning of summer) when the effect of PCM on inner surface temperatures is more visible. A first simulation with the PCM model of EnergyPlus gave results approaching the measurements with a mean error of 5%. The studied property in this paper is the melting temperature of the PCM. By determining the representative temperature of winter, summer and inter-seasons with past annual’s weather data, it is possible to build a numerical model of multi-layered PCM. Hence, the combined properties of the materials will provide an optimal scenario for the application on PCM in tropical areas. Future works will focus on the development of bio-based PCMs with the selected properties followed by experimental and numerical validation of the materials. 1Materiaux ´ a Changement de Phase, une innovation pour le B ` ati Tropical

Keywords: energyplus, multi-layer of PCM, phase changing materials, tropical area

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Authors: Simon Komesker, Achim Wagner, Martin Ruskowski

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In times of volatile markets with fluctuating demand and the uncertainty of global supply chains, flexible production systems are the key to an efficient implementation of a desired production program. In this publication, the authors present a holistic information concept taking into account various influencing factors for operating towards the global optimum. Therefore, a strategy for the implementation of multi-level planning for a flexible, reconfigurable production system with an alternative production concept in the automotive industry is developed. The main contribution of this work is a system structure mixing central and decentral planning and control evaluated in a simulation framework. The information system structure in current production systems in the automotive industry is rigidly hierarchically organized in monolithic systems. The production program is created rule-based with the premise of achieving uniform cycle time. This program then provides the information basis for execution in subsystems at the station and process execution level. In today's era of mixed-(car-)model factories, complex conditions and conflicts arise in achieving logistics, quality, and production goals. There is no provision for feedback loops of results from the process execution level (resources) and process supporting (quality and logistics) systems and reconsideration in the planning systems. To enable a robust production flow, the complexity of production system control is artificially reduced by the line structure and results, for example in material-intensive processes (buffers and safety stocks - two container principle also for different variants). The limited degrees of freedom of line production have produced the principle of progress figure control, which results in one-time sequencing, sequential order release, and relatively inflexible capacity control. As a result, modularly structured production systems such as modular production according to known approaches with more degrees of freedom are currently difficult to represent in terms of information technology. The remedy is an information concept that supports cross-system and cross-level information processing for centralized and decentralized decision-making. Through an architecture of hierarchically organized but decoupled subsystems, the paradigm of hybrid control is used, and a holonic manufacturing system is offered, which enables flexible information provisioning and processing support. In this way, the influences from quality, logistics, and production processes can be linked holistically with the advantages of mixed centralized and decentralized planning and control. Modular production systems also require modularly networked information systems with semi-autonomous optimization for a robust production flow. Dynamic prioritization of different key figures between subsystems should lead the production system to an overall optimum. The tasks and goals of quality, logistics, process, resource, and product areas in a cyber-physical production system are designed as an interconnected multi-agent-system. The result is an alternative system structure that executes centralized process planning and decentralized processing. An agent-based manufacturing control is used to enable different flexibility and reconfigurability states and manufacturing strategies in order to find optimal partial solutions of subsystems, that lead to a near global optimum for hybrid planning. This allows a robust near to plan execution with integrated quality control and intralogistics.

Keywords: holonic manufacturing system, modular production system, planning, and control, system structure

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Authors: Nadja Ylvestedt

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Uppsala University Library is a geographically dispersed research library consisting of nine subject libraries located in different campus areas throughout the city of Uppsala. Despite the geographical dispersion, it is the library's ambition to be perceived as a cohesive library with consistently high service and quality. A key factor to being one cohesive library is the library's online services, especially the virtual reference service. E-mail, chat and phone are answered by a team of specially trained staff under the supervision of a team leader. When covid-19 hit, well-established routines and processes to provide an infrastructure for students and researchers at the university changed radically. The strong connection between services provided at the library locations as well as at the VRS has been one of the key components of the library’s success in providing patrons with the help they need. With radically minimized availability at the physical locations, the infrastructure was at risk of collapsing. Objectives:- The objective of this project has been to evaluate the consequences of the sudden change in the organization of the library. The focus of this evaluation is the library’s VRS as an important space for learning, interaction and communication between the library and the community when other traditional spaces were not available. The goal of this evaluation is to capture the lessons learned from providing infrastructure for learning and research in times of crisis both on a practical, user-centered level but also to stress the importance of leadership in ever-changing environments that supports and creates agile, flexible services and teams instead of rigid processes adhering to obsolete goals. Results:- Reduced availability at the physical library locations was one of the strategies to prevent the spread of the covid-19 virus. The library staff was encouraged to work from home, so student workers staffed the library’s physical locations during that time, leaving the VRS to be the only place where patrons could get expert help. The VRS had an increase of 65% of questions asked between spring term 2019 and spring term 2020. The VRS team had to navigate often complicated and fast-changing new routines depending on national guidelines. The VRS team has a strong emphasis on agility in their approach to the challenges and opportunities, with methods to evaluate decisions regularly with user experience in mind. Fast decision-making, collecting feedback, an open-minded approach to reviewing rules and processes with both a short-term and a long-term focus and providing a healthy work environment have been key factors in managing this crisis and learn from it. This was resting on a strong sense of ownership regarding the VRS, well-working communication tools and agile and active communication between team members, as well as between the team and the rest of the organization who served as a second-line support system to aid the VRS team. Moving forward, the VRS has become an important space for communication, interaction and provider of infrastructure, implementing new routines and more extensive availability due to the lessons learned during crisis. The evaluation shows that the virtual environment has become an important addition to the physical spaces, existing in its own right but always in connection with and in relationship with the library structure as a whole. Thereby showing that the basis of human interaction stays the same while its form morphs and adapts to changes, thus leaving the virtual environment as a space of communication and infrastructure with unique opportunities for outreach and the potential to become a staple in patron’s education and learning.

Keywords: virtual reference service, leadership, digital infrastructure, research library

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Authors: Rahil Bahrami, Kaveh Ashenayi

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This paper presents a systematic classification and comparative analysis of non-isolated bi-directional DC-DC converters. The increasing demand for efficient energy conversion in diverse applications has spurred the development of various converter topologies. In this study, we categorize bi-directional converters into three distinct classes: Inverting, Non-Inverting, and Interleaved. Each category is characterized by its unique operational characteristics and benefits. Furthermore, a practical comparison is conducted by evaluating the results of simulation of each bi-directional converter. BDCs can be classified into isolated and non-isolated topologies. Non-isolated converters share a common ground between input and output, making them suitable for applications with minimal voltage change. They are easy to integrate, lightweight, and cost-effective but have limitations like limited voltage gain, switching losses, and no protection against high voltages. Isolated converters use transformers to separate input and output, offering safety benefits, high voltage gain, and noise reduction. They are larger and more costly but are essential for automotive designs where safety is crucial. The paper focuses on non-isolated systems.The paper discusses the classification of non-isolated bidirectional converters based on several criteria. Common factors used for classification include topology, voltage conversion, control strategy, power capacity, voltage range, and application. These factors serve as a foundation for categorizing converters, although the specific scheme might vary depending on contextual, application, or system-specific requirements. The paper presents a three-category classification for non-isolated bi-directional DC-DC converters: inverting, non-inverting, and interleaved. In the inverting category, converters produce an output voltage with reversed polarity compared to the input voltage, achieved through specific circuit configurations and control strategies. This is valuable in applications such as motor control and grid-tied solar systems. The non-inverting category consists of converters maintaining the same voltage polarity, useful in scenarios like battery equalization. Lastly, the interleaved category employs parallel converter stages to enhance power delivery and reduce current ripple. This classification framework enhances comprehension and analysis of non-isolated bi-directional DC-DC converters. The findings contribute to a deeper understanding of the trade-offs and merits associated with different converter types. As a result, this work aids researchers, practitioners, and engineers in selecting appropriate bi-directional converter solutions for specific energy conversion requirements. The proposed classification framework and experimental assessment collectively enhance the comprehension of non-isolated bi-directional DC-DC converters, fostering advancements in efficient power management and utilization.The simulation process involves the utilization of PSIM to model and simulate non-isolated bi-directional converter from both inverted and non-inverted category. The aim is to conduct a comprehensive comparative analysis of these converters, considering key performance indicators such as rise time, efficiency, ripple factor, and maximum error. This systematic evaluation provides valuable insights into the dynamic response, energy efficiency, output stability, and overall precision of the converters. The results of this comparison facilitate informed decision-making and potential optimizations, ensuring that the chosen converter configuration aligns effectively with the designated operational criteria and performance goals.

Keywords: bi-directional, DC-DC converter, non-isolated, energy conversion

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Authors: Nikhilesh Singh, Shishir Gaur, Anitha K. Sharma

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Climate change and anthropogenic stress have severely affected ecosystems all over the globe. Indian rivers are under immense pressure, facing challenges like pollution, encroachment, extreme fluctuation in the flow regime, local ignorance and lack of coordination between stakeholders. To counter all these issues a holistic river rejuvenation plan is needed that tests, innovates and implements sustainable solutions in the river space for sustainable river management. Smart Laboratory for Clean Rivers (SLCR) an Indo-Danish collaboration project, provides a living lab setup that brings all the stakeholders (government agencies, academic and industrial partners and locals) together to engage, learn, co-creating and experiment for a clean and sustainable river that last for ages. Just like every mega project requires piloting, SLCR has opted for a small catchment of the Varuna River, located in the Middle Ganga Basin in India. Considering the integrated approach of river rejuvenation, SLCR embraces various techniques and upgrades for rejuvenation. Likely, maintaining flow in the channel in the lean period, Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) is a proven technology. In SLCR, Floa-TEM high-resolution lithological data is used in MAR models to have better decision-making for MAR structures nearby of the river to enhance the river aquifer exchanges. Furthermore, the concerns of quality in the river are a big issue. A city like Varanasi which is located in the last stretch of the river, generates almost 260 MLD of domestic waste in the catchment. The existing STP system is working at full efficiency. Instead of installing a new STP for the future, SLCR is upgrading those STPs with an IoT-based system that optimizes according to the nutrient load and energy consumption. SLCR also advocate nature-based solutions like a reed bed for the drains having less flow. In search of micropollutants, SLCR uses fingerprint analysis involves employing advanced techniques like chromatography and mass spectrometry to create unique chemical profiles. However, rejuvenation attempts cannot be possible without involving the entire catchment. A holistic water management plan that includes storm management, water harvesting structure to efficiently manage the flow of water in the catchment and installation of several buffer zones to restrict pollutants entering into the river. Similarly, carbon (emission and sequestration) is also an important parameter for the catchment. By adopting eco-friendly practices, a ripple effect positively influences the catchment's water dynamics and aids in the revival of river systems. SLCR has adopted 4 villages to make them carbon-neutral and water-positive. Moreover, for the 24×7 monitoring of the river and the catchment, robust IoT devices are going to be installed to observe, river and groundwater quality, groundwater level, river discharge and carbon emission in the catchment and ultimately provide fuel for the data analytics. In its completion, SLCR will provide a river restoration manual, which will strategise the detailed plan and way of implementation for stakeholders. Lastly, the entire process is planned in such a way that will be managed by local administrations and stakeholders equipped with capacity-building activity. This holistic approach makes SLCR unique in the field of river rejuvenation.

Keywords: sustainable management, holistic approach, living lab, integrated river management

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Authors: Zhiwu Zheng, Prakhar Kumar, Sigurd Wagner, Naveen Verma, James C. Sturm

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Soft robots have drawn great interest recently due to a rich range of possible shapes and motions they can take on to address new applications, compared to traditional rigid robots. Large-area electronics (LAE) provides a unique platform for creating soft robots by leveraging thin-film technology to enable the integration of a large number of actuators, sensors, and control circuits on flexible sheets. However, the rich shapes and motions possible, especially when interacting with complex environments, pose significant challenges to forming well-generalized and robust models necessary for robot design and control. In this work, we describe an analytical model for predicting the shape and locomotion of a flexible (steel-foil-based) piezoelectric-actuated 2D robot based on Euler-Bernoulli beam theory. It is nominally (unpowered) lying flat on the ground, and when powered, its shape is controlled by an array of piezoelectric thin-film actuators. Key features of the models are its ability to incorporate the significant effects of gravity on the shape and to precisely predict the spatial distribution of friction against the contacting surfaces, necessary for determining inchworm-type motion. We verified the model by developing a distributed discrete element representation of a continuous piezoelectric actuator and by comparing its analytical predictions to discrete-element robot simulations using PyBullet. Without gravity, predicting the shape of a sheet with a linear array of piezoelectric actuators at arbitrary voltages is straightforward. However, gravity significantly distorts the shape of the sheet, causing some segments to flatten against the ground. Our work includes the following contributions: (i) A self-consistent approach was developed to exactly determine which parts of the soft robot are lifted off the ground, and the exact shape of these sections, for an arbitrary array of piezoelectric voltages and configurations. (ii) Inchworm-type motion relies on controlling the relative friction with the ground surface in different sections of the robot. By adding torque-balance to our model and analyzing shear forces, the model can then determine the exact spatial distribution of the vertical force that the ground is exerting on the soft robot. Through this, the spatial distribution of friction forces between ground and robot can be determined. (iii) By combining this spatial friction distribution with the shape of the soft robot, in the function of time as piezoelectric actuator voltages are changed, the inchworm-type locomotion of the robot can be determined. As a practical example, we calculated the performance of a 5-actuator system on a 50-µm thick steel foil. Piezoelectric properties of commercially available thin-film piezoelectric actuators were assumed. The model predicted inchworm motion of up to 200 µm per step. For independent verification, we also modelled the system using PyBullet, a discrete-element robot simulator. To model a continuous thin-film piezoelectric actuator, we broke each actuator into multiple segments, each of which consisted of two rigid arms with appropriate mass connected with a 'motor' whose torque was set by the applied actuator voltage. Excellent agreement between our analytical model and the discrete-element simulator was shown for both for the full deformation shape and motion of the robot.

Keywords: analytical modeling, piezoelectric actuators, soft robot locomotion, thin-film technology

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Authors: Gabrielle Robertson, Matthew Downs, Joseph Dagher

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Iron deposition in the brain has been linked with a host of neurological disorders such as Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s, and Multiple Sclerosis. While some treatment options exist, there are no objective measurement tools that allow for the monitoring of iron levels in the brain in vivo. An emerging Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) method has been recently proposed to deduce iron concentration through quantitative measurement of magnetic susceptibility. This is a multi-step process that involves repeated modeling of physical processes via approximate numerical solutions. For example, the last two steps of this Quantitative Susceptibility Mapping (QSM) method involve I) mapping magnetic field into magnetic susceptibility and II) mapping magnetic susceptibility into iron concentration. Process I involves solving an ill-posed inverse problem by using regularization via injection of prior belief. The end result from Process II highly depends on the model used to describe the molecular content of each voxel (type of iron, water fraction, etc.) Due to these factors, the accuracy and repeatability of QSM have been an active area of research in the MRI and medical imaging community. This work aims to estimate iron concentration in the brain via a single step. A synthetic numerical model of the human head was created by automatically and manually segmenting the human head on a high-resolution grid (640x640x640, 0.4mm³) yielding detailed structures such as microvasculature and subcortical regions as well as bone, soft tissue, Cerebral Spinal Fluid, sinuses, arteries, and eyes. Each segmented region was then assigned tissue properties such as relaxation rates, proton density, electromagnetic tissue properties and iron concentration. These tissue property values were randomly selected from a Probability Distribution Function derived from a thorough literature review. In addition to having unique tissue property values, different synthetic head realizations also possess unique structural geometry created by morphing the boundary regions of different areas within normal physical constraints. This model of the human brain is then used to create synthetic MRI measurements. This is repeated thousands of times, for different head shapes, volume, tissue properties and noise realizations. Collectively, this constitutes a training-set that is similar to in vivo data, but larger than datasets available from clinical measurements. This 3D convolutional U-Net neural network architecture was used to train data-driven Deep Learning models to solve for iron concentrations from raw MRI measurements. The performance was then tested on both synthetic data not used in training as well as real in vivo data. Results showed that the model trained on synthetic MRI measurements is able to directly learn iron concentrations in areas of interest more effectively than other existing QSM reconstruction methods. For comparison, models trained on random geometric shapes (as proposed in the Deep QSM method) are less effective than models trained on realistic synthetic head models. Such an accurate method for the quantitative measurement of iron deposits in the brain would be of important value in clinical studies aiming to understand the role of iron in neurological disease.

Keywords: magnetic resonance imaging, MRI, iron deposition, machine learning, quantitative susceptibility mapping

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Authors: Chenyi Ma

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Background: The second costliest hurricane in U.S. history, Sandy landed in southern New Jersey on October 29, 2012, and struck the entire state with high winds and torrential rains. The disaster killed more than 100 people, left more than 8.5 million households without power, and damaged or destroyed more than 200,000 homes across the state. Immediately after the disaster, public policy support was provided in nine coastal counties that constituted 98% of the major and severely damaged housing units in NJ overall. The programs include Individuals and Households Assistance Program, Small Business Loan Program, National Flood Insurance Program, and the Federal Emergency Management Administration (FEMA) Public Assistance Grant Program. In the most severely affected counties, additional funding was provided through Community Development Block Grant: Reconstruction, Rehabilitation, Elevation, and Mitigation Program, and Homeowner Resettlement Program. How these policies individually and as a whole impacted housing recovery across communities with different socioeconomic and demographic profiles has not yet been studied, particularly in relation to damage levels. The concept of community social vulnerability has been widely used to explain many aspects of natural disasters. Nevertheless, how communities are vulnerable has been less fully examined. Community resilience has been conceptualized as a protective factor against negative impacts from disasters, however, how community resilience buffers the effects of vulnerability is not yet known. Because housing recovery is a dynamic social and economic process that varies according to context, this study examined the path from community vulnerability and resilience to housing recovery looking at both community characteristics and policy interventions. Sample/Methods: This retrospective longitudinal case study compared a literature-identified set of pre-disaster community characteristics, the effects of multiple public policy programs, and a set of time-variant community resilience indicators to changes in housing stock (operationally defined by percent of building permits to total occupied housing units/households) between 2010 and 2014, two years before and after Hurricane Sandy. The sample consisted of 51 municipalities in the nine counties in which between 4% and 58% of housing units suffered either major or severe damage. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to determine the path from vulnerability to the housing recovery, via multiple public programs, separately and as a whole, and via the community resilience indicators. The spatial analytical tool ArcGIS 10.2 was used to show the spatial relations between housing recovery patterns and community vulnerability and resilience. Findings: Holding damage levels constant, communities with higher proportions of Hispanic households had significantly lower levels of housing recovery while communities with households with an adult >age 65 had significantly higher levels of the housing recovery. The contrast was partly due to the different levels of total public support the two types of the community received. Further, while the public policy programs individually mediated the negative associations between African American and female-headed households and housing recovery, communities with larger proportions of African American, female-headed and Hispanic households were “vulnerable” to lower levels of housing recovery because they lacked sufficient public program support. Even so, higher employment rates and incomes buffered vulnerability to lower housing recovery. Because housing is the "wobbly pillar" of the welfare state, the housing needs of these particular groups should be more fully addressed by disaster policy.

Keywords: community social vulnerability, community resilience, hurricane, public policy

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Authors: Anne Schattel, Mitja Echim, Christof Büskens

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Trajectory planning for deep space missions has become a recent topic of great interest. Flying to space objects like asteroids provides two main challenges. One is to find rare earth elements, the other to gain scientific knowledge of the origin of the world. Due to the enormous spatial distances such explorer missions have to be performed unmanned and autonomously. The mathematical field of optimization and optimal control can be used to realize autonomous missions while protecting recourses and making them safer. The resulting algorithms may be applied to other, earth-bound applications like e.g. deep sea navigation and autonomous driving as well. The project KaNaRiA ('Kognitionsbasierte, autonome Navigation am Beispiel des Ressourcenabbaus im All') investigates the possibilities of cognitive autonomous navigation on the example of an asteroid mining mission, including the cruise phase and approach as well as the asteroid rendezvous, landing and surface exploration. To verify and test all methods an interactive, real-time capable simulation using virtual reality is developed under KaNaRiA. This paper focuses on the specific challenge of the guidance during the cruise phase of the spacecraft, i.e. trajectory optimization and optimal control, including first solutions and results. In principle there exist two ways to solve optimal control problems (OCPs), the so called indirect and direct methods. The indirect methods are being studied since several decades and their usage needs advanced skills regarding optimal control theory. The main idea of direct approaches, also known as transcription techniques, is to transform the infinite-dimensional OCP into a finite-dimensional non-linear optimization problem (NLP) via discretization of states and controls. These direct methods are applied in this paper. The resulting high dimensional NLP with constraints can be solved efficiently by special NLP methods, e.g. sequential quadratic programming (SQP) or interior point methods (IP). The movement of the spacecraft due to gravitational influences of the sun and other planets, as well as the thrust commands, is described through ordinary differential equations (ODEs). The competitive mission aims like short flight times and low energy consumption are considered by using a multi-criteria objective function. The resulting non-linear high-dimensional optimization problems are solved by using the software package WORHP ('We Optimize Really Huge Problems'), a software routine combining SQP at an outer level and IP to solve underlying quadratic subproblems. An application-adapted model of impulsive thrusting, as well as a model of an electrically powered spacecraft propulsion system, is introduced. Different priorities and possibilities of a space mission regarding energy cost and flight time duration are investigated by choosing different weighting factors for the multi-criteria objective function. Varying mission trajectories are analyzed and compared, both aiming at different destination asteroids and using different propulsion systems. For the transcription, the robust method of full discretization is used. The results strengthen the need for trajectory optimization as a foundation for autonomous decision making during deep space missions. Simultaneously they show the enormous increase in possibilities for flight maneuvers by being able to consider different and opposite mission objectives.

Keywords: deep space navigation, guidance, multi-objective, non-linear optimization, optimal control, trajectory planning.

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Authors: Mohammadreza Kashizadeh, Mohammadamin Hashemi

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Solymorph, a kinetic building facade designed for optimal energy capture and architectural expression, is explored in this paper. The system integrates photovoltaic panels with soft robotic actuators for precise solar tracking, resulting in enhanced electricity generation compared to static facades. Driven by the growing interest in dynamic building envelopes, the exploration of novel facade systems is necessitated. Increased energy generation and regulation of energy flow within buildings are potential benefits offered by integrating photovoltaic (PV) panels as kinetic elements. However, incorporating these technologies into mainstream architecture presents challenges due to the complexity of coordinating multiple systems. To address this, Solymorph leverages soft robotic actuators, known for their compliance, resilience, and ease of integration. Additionally, the project investigates the potential for employing Large Language Models (LLMs) to streamline the design process. The research methodology involved design development, material selection, component fabrication, and system assembly. Grasshopper (GH) was employed within the digital design environment for parametric modeling and scripting logic, and an LLM was experimented with to generate Python code for the creation of a random surface with user-defined parameters. Various techniques, including casting, 3D printing, and laser cutting, were utilized to fabricate the physical components. Finally, a modular assembly approach was adopted to facilitate installation and maintenance. A case study focusing on the application of Solymorph to an existing library building at Politecnico di Milano is presented. The facade system is divided into sub-frames to optimize solar exposure while maintaining a visually appealing aesthetic. Preliminary structural analyses were conducted using Karamba3D to assess deflection behavior and axial loads within the cable net structure. Additionally, Finite Element (FE) simulations were performed in Abaqus to evaluate the mechanical response of the soft robotic actuators under pneumatic pressure. To validate the design, a physical prototype was created using a mold adapted for a 3D printer's limitations. Casting Silicone Rubber Sil 15 was used for its flexibility and durability. The 3D-printed mold components were assembled, filled with the silicone mixture, and cured. After demolding, nodes and cables were 3D-printed and connected to form the structure, demonstrating the feasibility of the design. Solymorph demonstrates the potential of soft robotics and Artificial Intelligence (AI) for advancements in sustainable building design and construction. The project successfully integrates these technologies to create a dynamic facade system that optimizes energy generation and architectural expression. While limitations exist, Solymorph paves the way for future advancements in energy-efficient facade design. Continued research efforts will focus on cost reduction, improved system performance, and broader applicability.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, energy efficiency, kinetic photovoltaics, pneumatic control, soft robotics, sustainable building

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Authors: Tatiana Rizova

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The migrant crisis, which peaked in 2015-2016, posed an unprecedented challenge to the European Union’s (EU) newest member states, including Bulgaria and Hungary. Their governments had to formulate sound migration policies with expediency and sensitivity to the needs of millions of people fleeing violent conflicts in the Middle East and failed states in North Africa. Political leaders in post-communist countries had to carefully coordinate with other EU member states on joint policies and solutions while minimizing the risk of alienating their increasingly anti-migrant domestic constituents. Post-communist member states’ governments chose distinct policy responses to the crisis, which were dictated by factors such as their governments’ partisan stances on migration, their views of the European Union, and the decision to frame the crisis as a security or a humanitarian issue. This paper explores how two Bulgarian governments (Boyko Borisov’s second and third government formed during the 43rd and 44th Bulgarian National Assembly, respectively) navigated the processes of EU migration policy making and managing the expectations of their electorates. Based on a comparative analysis of refugee policies in Bulgaria and Hungary during the height of the crisis (2015-2016) and a temporal analysis of refugee policies in Bulgaria (2015-2018), the paper advances the following conclusions. Drawing on insights of the Copenhagen school of security studies, the paper argues that cultural concerns dominated domestic debates in both Bulgaria and Hungary; both governments framed the issue predominantly as a matter of security rather than humanitarian disaster. Regardless of the similarities in issue framing, however, the two governments sought different paths of tackling the crisis. While the Bulgarian government demonstrated its willingness to comply with EU decisions (such as the proposal for mandatory quotas for refugee relocation), the Hungarian government defied EU directives and became a leading voice of dissent inside the EU. The current Bulgarian government (April 2017 - present) appears to be committed to complying with EU decisions and accepts the strategy of EU burden-sharing, while the Hungarian government has continually snubbed the EU’s appeals for cooperation despite the risk of hefty financial penalties. Hungary’s refugee policies have been influenced by the parliamentary representation of the far right-wing party Movement for a Better Hungary (Jobbik), which has encouraged the majority party (FIDESZ) to adopt harsher anti-migrant rhetoric and more hostile policies toward refugees. Bulgaria’s current government is a coalition of the center-right Citizens for a European Development of Bulgaria (GERB) and its far right-wing junior partners – the United Patriots (comprised of three nationalist political parties). The parliamentary presence of Jobbik in Hungary’s parliament has magnified the anti-migrant stance, rhetoric, and policies of Mr. Orbán’s Civic Alliance; we have yet to observe a substantial increase in the anti-migrant rhetoric and policies in Bulgaria’s case. Analyzing responses to the migrant/refugee crisis is a critical opportunity to understand how issues of cultural identity and belonging, inclusion and exclusion, regional integration and disintegration are debated and molded into policy in Europe’s youngest member states in the broader EU context.

Keywords: Copenhagen School, migrant crisis, refugees, security

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Authors: Chandranath Chatterjee, Amina Khatun, Bhabagrahi Sahoo

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With the changing climate, precipitation events are intensified in the tropical river basins. Since these river basins are significantly influenced by the monsoonal rainfall pattern, critical impacts are observed on the agricultural practices in the downstream river reaches. This study analyses the crop damage and associated flood risk in terms of net benefit in the paddy-dominated tropical Indian delta of the Mahanadi River. The Mahanadi River basin lies in eastern part of the Indian sub-continent and is greatly affected by the southwest monsoon rainfall extending from the month of June to September. This river delta is highly flood-prone and has suffered from recurring high floods, especially after the 2000s. In this study, the lumped conceptual model, Nedbør Afstrømnings Model (NAM) from the suite of MIKE models, is used for rainfall-runoff modeling. The NAM model is laterally integrated with the MIKE11-Hydrodynamic (HD) model to route the runoffs up to the head of the delta region. To obtain the precipitation-derived future projected discharges at the head of the delta, nine Global Climate Models (GCMs), namely, BCC-CSM1.1(m), GFDL-CM3, GFDL-ESM2G, HadGEM2-AO, IPSL-CM5A-LR, IPSL-CM5A-MR, MIROC5, MIROC-ESM-CHEM and NorESM1-M, available in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 5 (CMIP5) archive are considered. These nine GCMs are previously found to best-capture the Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall. Based on the performance of the nine GCMs in reproducing the historical discharge pattern, three GCMs (HadGEM2-AO, IPSL-CM5A-MR and MIROC-ESM-CHEM) are selected. A higher Taylor Skill Score is considered as the GCM selection criteria. Thereafter, the 10-year return period design flood is estimated using L-moments based flood frequency analysis for the historical and three future projected periods (2010-2039, 2040-2069 and 2070-2099) under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. A non-dimensional hydrograph analysis is performed to obtain the hydrographs for the historical/projected 10-year return period design floods. These hydrographs are forced into the calibrated and validated coupled 1D-2D hydrodynamic model, MIKE FLOOD, to simulate the flood inundation in the delta region. Historical and projected flood risk is defined based on the information about the flood inundation simulated by the MIKE FLOOD model and the inundation depth-damage-duration relationship of a normal rice variety cultivated in the river delta. In general, flood risk is expected to increase in all the future projected time periods as compared to the historical episode. Further, in comparison to the 2010s (2010-2039), an increased flood risk in the 2040s (2040-2069) is shown by all the three selected GCMs. However, the flood risk then declines in the 2070s as we move towards the end of the century (2070-2099). The methodology adopted herein for flood risk assessment is one of its kind and may be implemented in any world-river basin. The results obtained from this study can help in future flood preparedness by implementing suitable flood adaptation strategies.

Keywords: flood frequency analysis, flood risk, global climate models (GCMs), paddy cultivation

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