Search results for: decision making evolution

Authors: Hsuan Yu Lai, Hsuan Hsuan Chang

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The consumer decision process steps through problems by weighing evidence, examining alternatives, and choosing a decision path. Currently, the COVID 19 made the tourism industry encounter a huge challenge and suffer the biggest amount of economic loss. It would be very important to reexamine the decision-making process model, especially after the pandemic, and consider the differences among different generations. The tourism industry has been significantly impacted by the global outbreak of COVID-19, but as the pandemic subsides, the sector is recovering. This study addresses the scarcity of research on travel decision-making patterns among generations in Taiwan. Specifically targeting individuals who frequently traveled abroad before the pandemic, the study explores differences in decision-making at different stages post-outbreak. So this study investigates differences in travel decision-making among individuals from different generations during/after the COVID-19 pandemic and examines the moderating effects of social media usage and individuals' perception of health risks. The study hypotheses are “there are significant differences in the decision-making process including travel motivation, information searching preferences, and criteria for decision-making” and that social-media usage and health-risk perception would moderate the results of the previous study hypothesis. The X, Y, and Z generations are defined and categorized based on a literature review. The survey collected data including their social-economic background, travel behaviors, motivations, considerations for destinations, travel information searching preferences, and decision-making criteria before/after the pandemic based on the reviews of previous studies. Data from 656 online questionnaires were collected between January to May 2023 and from Taiwanese travel consumers who used to travel at least one time abroad before Covid-19. SPSS is used to analyze the data with One-Way ANOVA and Two-Way ANOVA. The analysis includes demand perception, information gathering, alternative comparison, purchase behavior, and post-travel experience sharing. Social media influence and perception of health risks are examined as moderating factors. The findings show that before the pandemic, the Y Generation preferred natural environments, while the X Generation favored historical and cultural sites compared to the Z Generation. However, after the outbreak, the Z Generation displayed a significant preference for entertainment activities. This study contributes to understanding changes in travel decision-making patterns following COVID-19 and the influence of social media and health risks. The findings have practical implications for the tourism industry.

Keywords: consumer decision-making, generation study, health risk perception, post-pandemic era, social media

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Authors: Lenka Krsnakova, Petr Jirsak

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Prior research on facility location in supply chain is mostly focused on improvement of mathematical models. It is due to the fact that supply chain design has been for the long time the area of operational research that underscores mainly quantitative criteria. Qualitative criteria are still highly neglected within the supply chain design research. Facility location in the supply chain has become multi-criteria decision-making problem rather than single criteria decision due to changes of market conditions. Thus, both qualitative and quantitative criteria have to be included in the decision making process. The aim of this study is to emphasize the importance of qualitative criteria as key parameters of relevant mathematical models. We examine which criteria are taken into consideration when Czech companies decide about their facility location. A literature review on criteria being used in facility location decision making process creates a theoretical background for the study. The data collection was conducted through questionnaire survey. Questionnaire was sent to manufacturing and business companies of all sizes (small, medium and large enterprises) with the representation in the Czech Republic within following sectors: automotive, toys, clothing industry, electronics and pharmaceutical industry. Comparison of which criteria prevail in the current research and which are considered important by companies in the Czech Republic is made. Despite the number of articles focused on supply chain design, only minority of them consider qualitative criteria and rarely process supply chain design as a multi-criteria decision making problem. Preliminary results of the questionnaire survey outlines that companies in the Czech Republic see the qualitative criteria and their impact on facility location decision as crucial. Qualitative criteria as company strategy, quality of working environment or future development expectations are confirmed to be considered by Czech companies. This study confirms that the qualitative criteria can significantly influence whether a particular location could or could not be right place for a logistic facility. The research has two major limitations: researchers who focus on improving of mathematical models mostly do not mention criteria that enter the model. Czech supply chain managers selected important criteria from the group of 18 available criteria and assign them importance weights. It does not necessarily mean that these criteria were taken into consideration when the last facility location was chosen, but how they perceive that today. Since the study confirmed the necessity of future research on how qualitative criteria influence decision making process about facility location, the authors have already started in-depth interviews with participating companies to reveal how the inclusion of qualitative criteria into decision making process about facility location influence the company´s performance.

Keywords: criteria influencing facility location, Czech Republic, facility location decision-making, qualitative criteria

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Authors: Szilvia Halmos

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Hungary was one of the first countries to sign and ratify the UN Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities (hereinafter: CRPD). Consequently, Hungary assumed an obligation under international law to review the national law in the light of the Article 12 of the CRPD requiring the States parties to guarantee the equality of persons with disabilities in terms of legal capacity, and to replace the regimes of substitute decision-making by the instruments of supported decision-making. This article is often characterized as one of the key norms of the CRPD, since the legal autonomy of the persons with disabilities is an essential precondition of their participation in the social life on an equal basis with others, envisaged by the social paradigm of disability. This paper examines the impact of the CRPD on the relevant Hungarian national legal norms, with special focus on the relevant rules of the recently codified Civil Code. The employed research methodologies include (1) the specification of the implementation requirements imposed by the Article 12 of the CRPD, (2) the determination of the indicators of the appropriate implementation, (3) the critical analysis of compliance of the relevant Hungarian legal regulation with the indicators, (4) with respect to the relevant case law of the Hungarian Constitutional Court and ordinary courts, the European Court of Human Rights and the Committee of Rights of Persons with Disabilities and (5) to the available empirical figures on the functioning of substitute and supported decision-making regimes. It will be established that the new Civil Code has made large steps toward the equality of persons with disabilities in terms of legal capacity and the support model of decision-making by the introduction of some specific instruments of supported decision-making and the restriction of the application of guardianship. Nevertheless, the regulation currently in effect fails to represent some crucial principles of the Article 12 of the CRPD, such as the non-discrimination of persons with psycho-social disabilities, the support of the articulation of the will and preferences of the individual instead of his/her best interest in the course of decision-making. The changes in the practice of the substitute and the support model brought about by the new legal norms can also be assessed as significant, however, so far unsatisfactory. The number of registered supporters is rather low, and the preconditions of the effective functioning of the support (e.g. the proper training of the supporters) are not ensured.

Keywords: Article 12 of the UN CRPD, Hungarian law on legal capacity, persons with intellectual and psycho-social disabilities, supported decision-making

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Authors: Sanjal Gavande, Thomas Mazzuchi, Shahram Sarkani

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In a complex aerospace operational environment, identifying failures in a procedure involving multiple human-machine interactions are difficult. These failures could lead to accidents causing loss of hardware or human life. The likelihood of failure further increases if operational procedures are tested for a novel system with multiple human-machine interfaces and with no prior performance data. The existing approach in the literature of reviewing complex operational tasks in a flowchart or tabular form doesn’t provide any insight into potential system failures due to human decision-making ability. To address these challenges, this research explores an agent-based simulation approach for reliability assessment and fault detection in complex human-machine systems while utilizing a human decision-making model. The simulation will predict the emergent behavior of the system due to the interaction between humans and their decision-making capability with the varying states of the machine and vice-versa. Overall system reliability will be evaluated based on a defined set of success-criteria conditions and the number of recorded failures over an assigned limit of Monte Carlo runs. The study also aims at identifying high-likelihood failure locations for the system. The research concludes that system reliability and failures can be effectively calculated when individual human and machine agent states are clearly defined. This research is limited to the operations phase of a system lifecycle process in an aerospace environment only. Further exploration of the proposed agent-based and human decision-making model will be required to allow for a greater understanding of this topic for application outside of the operations domain.

Keywords: agent-based model, complex human-machine system, human decision-making model, system reliability assessment

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Authors: Boussoualim Nacira, Aklouf Youcef

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Software as a Service (SaaS) is a software delivery paradigm in which the product is not installed on-premise, but it is available on Internet and Web. The customers do not pay to possess the software itself but rather to use it. This concept of pay per use is very attractive. Hence, we see increasing number of organizations adopting SaaS. However, each customer is unique, which leads to a very large variation in the requirements off the software. As several suppliers propose SaaS products, the choice of this latter becomes a major issue. When multiple criteria are involved in decision making, we talk about a problem of «Multi-Criteria Decision-Making» (MCDM). Therefore, this paper presents a method to help customers to choose a better SaaS product satisfying most of their conditions and alternatives. Also, we know that a good method of adaptive selection should be based on the correct definition of the different parameters of choice. This is why we started by extraction and analysis the various parameters involved in the process of the selection of a SaaS application.

Keywords: cloud computing, business operation, Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM), Software as a Service (SaaS)

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Authors: Dimitrios J. Dimitriou, Maria F. Sartzetaki

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Transport infrastructure assets are key components of the national asset portfolio. The decision to invest in a new infrastructure in transports could take from a few years to some decades. This is mainly because of the need to reserve and spent many capitals, the long payback period, the number of the stakeholders involved in decision process and –many times- the investment and business risks are high. Therefore, the decision assessment framework is an essential challenge linked with the key decision factors meet the stakeholder expectations highlighting project trade-offs, financial risks, business uncertainties and market limitations. This paper examines the decision process for new transport infrastructure projects in cross border regions, where a wide range of stakeholders with different expectation is involved. According to a consequences analysis systemic approach, the relationship of transport infrastructure development, economic system development and stakeholder expectation is analyzed. Adopting the on system of system methodological approach, the decision making framework, variables, inputs and outputs are defined, highlighting the key shareholder’s role and expectations. The application provides the methodology outputs presenting the proposed decision framework for a strategic railway project in north Greece deals with the upgrade of the existing railway corridor connecting Greece, Turkey and Bulgaria.

Keywords: decision making, system of system, cross-border, infrastructure project

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Authors: Tejinder Singh

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Information system is the flow of data from different levels to different directions for decision making and data operations in information system (IS). Data can be violated by different manner like manual or technical errors, data tampering or loss of integrity. Security system called firewall of IS is effected by such type of violations. The flow of data among various levels of Information System is done by networking system. The flow of data on network is in form of packets or frames. To protect these packets from unauthorized access, virus attacks, and to maintain the integrity level, network security is an important factor. To protect the data to get pirated, various security techniques are used. This paper represents the various security techniques and signifies different harmful attacks with the help of detailed data analysis. This paper will be beneficial for the organizations to make the system more secure, effective, and beneficial for future decisions making.

Keywords: information systems, data integrity, TCP/IP network, vulnerability, decision, data

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Authors: Nastaran Hajiheydari, Mohammad Soltani Delgosha

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Vendor (supplier) selection is a group decision-making (GDM) process, in which, based on some predetermined criteria, the experts’ preferences are provided in order to rank and choose the most desirable suppliers. In the real business environment, our attitudes or our choices would be made in an uncertain and indecisive situation could not be expressed in a crisp framework. Intuitionistic fuzzy sets (IFSs) could handle such situations in the best way. VIKOR method was developed to solve multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) problems. This method, which is used to determine the compromised feasible solution with respect to the conflicting criteria, introduces a multi-criteria ranking index based on the particular measure of 'closeness' to the 'ideal solution'. Until now, there has been a little investigation of VIKOR with IFS, therefore we extended the intuitionistic fuzzy (IF) VIKOR to solve vendor selection problem under IF GDM environment. The present study intends to develop an IF VIKOR method in a GDM situation. Therefore, a model is presented to calculate the criterion weights based on entropy measure. Then, the interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy weighted geometric (IFWG) operator utilized to obtain the total decision matrix. In the next stage, an approach based on the positive idle intuitionistic fuzzy number (PIIFN) and negative idle intuitionistic fuzzy number (NIIFN) was developed. Finally, the application of the proposed method to solve a vendor selection problem illustrated.

Keywords: group decision making, intuitionistic fuzzy set, intuitionistic fuzzy entropy measure, vendor selection, VIKOR

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Authors: Rendong Cai, Bei Peng, Yanping Dong

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In risk decision making, individuals are found to be susceptible to 'frames': people tend to be risk averse when the choice is described in terms of potential 'gains' (gain frame), whereas they tend to be risk seeking when the same choice is described in terms of potential 'losses' (loss frame); this effect is termed the framing effect. The framing effect has been well documented and some studies even find a developmental reversal in the framing effect: The more experience an individual has in a certain field, the easier for him to be influenced by the frame relevant to the field, resulting in greater decision inconsistency. Recent studies reported that using a foreign language can reduce the framing effect. However, it is not clear whether foreign language use can overcome the developmental reversal in the framing effect. The present study investigated three potential factors that may influence the developmental reversal in the framing effect: specialized knowledge of the participants, the language in which the problem is presented, and the types of problems. The present study examined the decision making behavior of 188 Chinese-English bilinguals who majored in Finance, with a group of 277 English majors as the control group. They were asked to solve a financial problem (experimental condition) and a life problem (control condition). Each problem was presented in one of the following four versions: native language-gain frame, foreign language-gain frame, native language-loss frame, and foreign language-loss frame. Results revealed that for the life problem, under the native condition, both groups were affected by the frame; but under the foreign condition, this framing effect disappeared for the financial majors. This confirmed that foreign language use modulates framing effects in general decision making, which served as an effective baseline. For the financial problem, under the native condition, only the financial major was observed to be influenced by the frame, which was a developmental reversal; under the foreign condition, however, this framing effect disappeared. The results provide further empirical evidence for the universal of the developmental reversal in risky decision making. More importantly, the results suggest that using a foreign language can overcome such reversal, which has implications for the reduction of decision biases in professionals. The findings also shed new light on the complex interaction between general decision-making and bilingualism.

Keywords: the foreign language effect, developmental reversals, the framing effect, bilingualism

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Authors: Abeba Nigussie Turi, Xiangming Samuel Li

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Data-driven business models are more typical for established businesses than early-stage startups that strive to penetrate a market. This paper provided an extensive discussion on the principles of data analytics for early-stage digital entrepreneurial businesses. Here, we developed data-driven decision-making (DDDM) framework that applies to startups prone to multifaceted barriers in the form of poor data access, technical and financial constraints, to state some. The startup DDDM framework proposed in this paper is novel in its form encompassing startup data analytics enablers and metrics aligning with startups' business models ranging from customer-centric product development to servitization which is the future of modern digital entrepreneurship.

Keywords: startup data analytics, data-driven decision-making, data acquisition, data generation, digital entrepreneurship

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Authors: H. D. Arora, Anjali Dhiman

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Uncertainty is found everywhere and its understanding is central to decision making. Uncertainty emerges as one has less information than the total information required describing a system and its environment. Uncertainty and information are so closely associated that the information provided by an experiment for example, is equal to the amount of uncertainty removed. It may be pertinent to point out that uncertainty manifests itself in several forms and various kinds of uncertainties may arise from random fluctuations, incomplete information, imprecise perception, vagueness etc. For instance, one encounters uncertainty due to vagueness in communication through natural language. Uncertainty in this sense is represented by fuzziness resulting from imprecision of meaning of a concept expressed by linguistic terms. Fuzzy set concept provides an appropriate mathematical framework for dealing with the vagueness. Both information theory, proposed by Shannon (1948) and fuzzy set theory given by Zadeh (1965) plays an important role in human intelligence and various practical problems such as image segmentation, medical diagnosis etc. Numerous approaches and theories dealing with inaccuracy and uncertainty have been proposed by different researcher. In the present communication, we generalize fuzzy entropy proposed by De Luca and Termini (1972) corresponding to Shannon entropy(1948). Further, some of the basic properties of the proposed measure were examined. We also applied the proposed measure to the real life decision making problem.

Keywords: entropy, fuzzy sets, fuzzy entropy, generalized fuzzy entropy, decision making

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Authors: Jalal Haghighat Monfared, Zahra Akbari

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Today, business executives need to have useful information to make better decisions. Banks have also been using information tools so that they can direct the decision-making process in order to achieve their desired goals by rapidly extracting information from sources with the help of business intelligence. The research seeks to investigate whether there is a relationship between the quality of decision making and the business intelligence capabilities of Mellat Bank. Each of the factors studied is divided into several components, and these and their relationships are measured by a questionnaire. The statistical population of this study consists of all managers and experts of Mellat Bank's General Departments (including 190 people) who use commercial intelligence reports. The sample size of this study was 123 randomly determined by statistical method. In this research, relevant statistical inference has been used for data analysis and hypothesis testing. In the first stage, using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, the normalization of the data was investigated and in the next stage, the construct validity of both variables and their resulting indexes were verified using confirmatory factor analysis. Finally, using the structural equation modeling and Pearson's correlation coefficient, the research hypotheses were tested. The results confirmed the existence of a positive relationship between decision quality and business intelligence capabilities in Mellat Bank. Among the various capabilities, including data quality, correlation with other systems, user access, flexibility and risk management support, the flexibility of the business intelligence system was the most correlated with the dependent variable of the present research. This shows that it is necessary for Mellat Bank to pay more attention to choose the required business intelligence systems with high flexibility in terms of the ability to submit custom formatted reports. Subsequently, the quality of data on business intelligence systems showed the strongest relationship with quality of decision making. Therefore, improving the quality of data, including the source of data internally or externally, the type of data in quantitative or qualitative terms, the credibility of the data and perceptions of who uses the business intelligence system, improves the quality of decision making in Mellat Bank.

Keywords: business intelligence, business intelligence capability, decision making, decision quality

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Authors: Kirsi Snellman, Johannes Gartner, , Katja Upadaya

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A transition towards a future where the economy serves society so that it evolves within the safe operating space of the planet calls for fundamental changes in the way managers think, feel and act, and make decisions that relate to social and environmental issues. Sustainable decision-making in organizations are often challenging tasks characterized by trade-offs between environmental, social and financial aspects, thus often bringing forth ethical concerns. Although there have been significant developments in incorporating uncertainty into environmental decision-making and measuring constructs and dimensions in ethical behavior in organizations, the majority of sustainable decision-making models are rationalist-based. Moreover, research in psychology indicates that one’s readiness to make a decision depends on the individual’s state of mind, the feasibility of the implied change, and the compatibility of strategies and tactics of implementation. Although very informative, most of this extant research is limited in the sense that it often directs attention towards the rational instead of the emotional. Hence, little is known about the role of emotions in sustainable decision making, especially in situations where decision-makers evaluate a variety of options and use their feelings as a source of information in tackling the uncertainty. To fill this lacuna, and to embrace the uncertainty and perceived risk involved in decisions that touch upon social and environmental aspects, it is important to add emotion to the evaluation when aiming to reach the one right and good ethical decision outcome. This analysis builds on recent findings in moral psychology that associate feelings and intuitions with ethical decisions and suggests that emotions can sensitize the manager to evaluate the rightness or wrongness of alternatives if ethical concerns are present in sustainable decision making. Capturing such sensitive evaluation as triggered by intuitions, we suggest that rational justification can be complemented by using emotions as a tool to tune in to what feels right in making sustainable decisions. This analysis integrates ethical decision-making theories with recent advancements in emotion theories. It determines the conditions under which emotions play a role in sustainability decisions by contributing to a personal equilibrium in which intuition and rationality are both activated and in accord. It complements the rationalist ethics view according to which nothing fogs the mind in decision making so thoroughly as emotion, and the concept of cheater’s high that links unethical behavior with positive affect. This analysis contributes to theory with a novel theoretical model that specifies when and why managers, who are more emotional, are, in fact, more likely to make ethical decisions than those managers who are more rational. It also proposes practical advice on how emotions can convert the manager’s preferences into choices that benefit both common good and one’s own good throughout the transition towards a more sustainable future.

Keywords: emotion, ethical decision making, intuition, sustainability

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Authors: Dimitrios J. Dimitriou, Maria F. Sartzetaki, Anastasia Kalamakidou

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Transport infrastructure assets are key components of the national asset portfolio. The decision to invest in a new infrastructure in transports could take from a few years to some decades. This is mainly because of the need to reserve and spent many capitals, the long payback period, the number of the stakeholders involved in the decision process and –many times- the investment and business risks are high. Decision makers and stakeholders need to define the framework and the outputs of the decision process taking into account the project characteristics, the business uncertainties, and the different expectations. Therefore, the decision assessment framework is an essential challenge linked with the key decision factors meet the stakeholder expectations highlighting project trade-offs, financial risks, business uncertainties and market limitations. This paper examines the decision process for new transport infrastructure projects in cross-border regions, where a wide range of stakeholders with different expectation is involved. According to a consequences analysis systemic approach, the relationship of transport infrastructure development, economic system development and stakeholder expectation is analysed. Adopting the on system of system methodological approach, the decision making the framework, variables, inputs and outputs are defined, highlighting the key shareholder’s role and expectations. The application provides the methodology outputs presenting the proposed decision framework for a strategic railway project in north Greece deals with the upgrade of the existing railway corridor connecting Greece, Turkey, and Bulgaria.

Keywords: system of system decision making, managing decisions for transport projects, decision support framework, defining decision process

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Authors: Shidrokh Goudarzi, Wan Haslina Hassan

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Heterogeneous wireless networks are converging towards an all-IP network as part of the so-called next-generation network. In this paradigm, different access technologies need to be interconnected; thus, vertical handovers or vertical handoffs are necessary for seamless mobility. In this paper, we conduct a review of existing vertical handover decision-making mechanisms that aim to provide ubiquitous connectivity to mobile users. To offer a systematic comparison, we categorize these vertical handover measurement and decision structures based on their respective methodology and parameters. Subsequently, we analyze several vertical handover approaches in the literature and compare them according to their advantages and weaknesses. The paper compares the algorithms based on the network selection methods, complexity of the technologies used and efficiency in order to introduce our vertical handover decision framework. We find that vertical handovers on heterogeneous wireless networks suffer from the lack of a standard and efficient method to satisfy both user and network quality of service requirements at different levels including architectural, decision-making and protocols. Also, the consolidation of network terminal, cross-layer information, multi packet casting and intelligent network selection algorithm appears to be an optimum solution for achieving seamless service continuity in order to facilitate seamless connectivity.

Keywords: heterogeneous wireless networks, vertical handovers, vertical handover metric, decision-making algorithms

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Authors: Khushi, Simrat

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The study aims to investigate the relationship between emotions and employee's social cognition and decision-making among employees. The sample of the study was the total number of participants, which included employees from various industries and job positions. Research papers in the same area were reviewed, providing a comprehensive review of existing literature and theoretical frameworks and shedding light on the interpersonal effects of emotions in the workplace. It emphasizes how one worker's emotions can significantly impact the overall work environment and productivity as well as the work of a common phenomenon known as Emotional contagion at the workplace, affecting social interactions and group dynamics. Therefore, this study concludes that Emotional contagion can lead to a ripple effect within the workplace, influencing the overall atmosphere and productivity. Emotions can shape how employees process information and make choices, ultimately impacting organizational outcomes.

Keywords: employee decision making, social cognition, emotions, industry, emotional contagion, workplace dynamics

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Authors: Umar D. M., Aminu A. M., Izaddeen K. Y.

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Deployments of mini macrocell base stations also referred to as femtocells, improve the quality of service of indoor and outdoor users. Nevertheless, mobility management remains a key issue with regards to their deployment. This paper is leaned towards this issue, with an in-depth focus on the most important aspect of mobility management -handover. In handover management, making a handover decision in the LTE two-tier macrocell femtocell network is a crucial research area. Decision algorithms in this research are classified and comparatively analyzed according to received signal strength, user equipment speed, cost function, and interference. However, it was observed that most of the discussed decision algorithms fail to consider cell selection with hybrid access policy in a single macrocell multiple femtocell scenario, another observation was a majority of these algorithms lack the incorporation of user equipment residence parameter. Not including this parameter boosts the number of unnecessary handover occurrence. To deal with these issues, a sophisticated handover decision algorithm is proposed. The proposed algorithm considers the user’s velocity, received signal strength, residence time, as well as the femtocell base station’s access policy. Simulation results have shown that the proposed algorithm reduces the number of unnecessary handovers when compared to conventional received signal strength-based handover decision algorithm.

Keywords: user-equipment, radio signal service, long term evolution, mobility management, handoff

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Authors: Mohammad Sadeghi, Mahdieh Saniee

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Nowadays, development laws have become a major branch of engineering science, laws help humankind achieve his/her basic needs, and it is attracted to the attention of the nations. Therefore, lawyers have been invited to contemplate legislator's approaches respecting legislating countries' economic, social and cultural development plans and to observe the reliance of approaches on two elements of distributive justice and transitional justice in light of legal rationality. Legal rationality in development planning has encountered us with this question that whether a rational approach and existing models in the Iran development planning system approximate us to the goal of development laws respecting the rationalist approach and also regarding wisely decision-making model. The present study will investigate processes, approaches, and damages of development planning in the legislation of country development plans to answer this question.

Keywords: rationality, decision-making process, policymaking, development

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Authors: Subhayan Maity

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Complete scenario of cosmic evolution from emergent phase to late time acceleration (i.e. non-singular ever expanding Universe) is a popular preference in the recent cosmology. Yet one can’t exclude the idea that other type of evolution pattern of the Universe may also be possible. Especially, the bouncing scenario is becoming a matter of interest now a days. The present work is an exhibition of such a different pattern of cosmic evolution where the evolution of Universe has been shown as a cyclic thermodynamic process. Under diffusion mechanism (non-equilibrium thermodynamic process), the cosmic evolution has been modelled as [ emergent - accelerated expansion - decelerated expansion - decelerated contraction - accelerated contraction - emergent] .

Keywords: non-equilibrium thermodynamics, non singular evolution of universe, cyclic evolution, diffusive fluid

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Authors: Yidnekachew Daget, Hong Zhang

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The decision-making process in order to select the suitable housing system for application in housing construction has been a challenge for many developing countries. This study evaluates the decision process to identify the suitable housing systems for adoption in Addis Ababa. Ten industrialized housing systems were considered as alternatives for comparison. These systems have been used in a housing development in different parts of the world. A relevant literature review and contextual analysis were conducted. An analytical hierarchy process and an Expert Choice Comparion platform were employed as a research technique and tool to evaluate the professionals’ level of preferences with regard to the housing systems. The findings revealed the priority rank and characteristics of the suitable housing systems to be adapted for application in housing development. The decision criteria and the analytical process used in this study can help the decision-makers and the housing developers in developing countries make effective evaluations and decisions.

Keywords: analytical hierarchy process, decision-making, expert choice comparion, industrialized housing systems

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Authors: Peter Boyes, Sarah Sharples, Paul Tennent, Gary Priestnall, Jeremy Morley

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Significant long-term investment projects can involve complex decisions. These are often described as capital projects, and the factors that contribute to their complexity include budgets, motivating reasons for investment, stakeholder involvement, interdependent projects, and the delivery phases required. The complexity of these projects often requires management groups to be established involving stakeholder representatives; these teams are inherently multidisciplinary. This study uses two university campus capital projects as case studies for this type of management group. Due to the interaction of projects with wider campus infrastructure and users, decisions are made at varying spatial granularity throughout the project lifespan. This spatial-related context brings complexity to the group decisions. Sensemaking is the process used to achieve group situational awareness of a complex situation, enabling the team to arrive at a consensus and make a decision. The purpose of this study is to understand the role of people and data in the complex spatial related long-term decision and sensemaking processes. The paper aims to identify and present issues experienced in practical settings of these types of decision. A series of exploratory semi-structured interviews with members of the two projects elicit an understanding of their operation. From two stages of thematic analysis, inductive and deductive, emergent themes are identified around the group structure, the data usage, and the decision making within these groups. When data were made available to the group, there were commonly issues with the perception of veracity and validity of the data presented; this impacted the ability of group to reach consensus and, therefore, for decisions to be made. Similarly, there were different responses to forecasted or modelled data, shaped by the experience and occupation of the individuals within the multidisciplinary management group. This paper provides an understanding of further support required for team sensemaking and decision making in complex capital projects. The paper also discusses the barriers found to effective decision making in this setting and suggests opportunities to develop decision support systems in this team strategic decision-making process. Recommendations are made for further research into the sensemaking and decision-making process of this complex spatial-related setting.

Keywords: decision making, decisions under uncertainty, real decisions, sensemaking, spatial, team decision making

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Authors: Sarah Müller-Sägebrecht

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Today’s volatile environment challenges executives to make the right strategic decisions to gain sustainable success. Entrepreneurship scholars postulate mainly positive effects of environmental changes on entrepreneurship behavior, such as developing new business opportunities, promoting ingenuity, and the satisfaction of resource voids. A strategic solution approach to overcome threatening environmental changes and catch new business opportunities is business model innovation (BMI). Although this research stream has gained further importance in the last decade, BMI research is still insufficient. Especially BMI barriers, such as inefficient strategic decision-making processes, need to be identified. Strategic decisions strongly impact organizational future and are, therefore, usually made in groups. Although groups draw on a more extensive information base than single individuals, group-interaction effects can influence the decision-making process - in a favorable but also unfavorable way. Decisions are characterized by uncertainty and risk, whereby their intensity is perceived individually differently. The individual risk-willingness influences which option humans choose. The special nature of strategic decisions, such as in BMI processes, is that these decisions are not made individually but in groups due to their high organizational scope. These groups consist of different personalities whose individual risk-willingness can vary considerably. It is known from group decision theory that these individuals influence each other, observable in different group-interaction effects. The following research questions arise: i) How does group interaction shape BMI decision-making from managers’ perspective? ii) What are the potential interrelations among managers’ risk-willingness, group biases, and BMI decision-making? After conducting 26 in-depth interviews with executives from the manufacturing industry, applied Gioia methodology reveals the following results: i) Risk-averse decision-makers have an increased need to be guided by facts. The more information available to them, the lower they perceive uncertainty and the more willing they are to pursue a specific decision option. However, the results also show that social interaction does not change the individual risk-willingness in the decision-making process. ii) Generally, it could be observed that during BMI decisions, group interaction is primarily beneficial to increase the group’s information base for making good decisions, less than for social interaction. Further, decision-makers mainly focus on information available to all decision-makers in the team but less on personal knowledge. This work contributes to strategic decision-making literature twofold. First, it gives insights into how group-interaction effects influence an organization’s strategic BMI decision-making. Second, it enriches risk-management research by highlighting how individual risk-willingness impacts organizational strategic decision-making. To date, it was known in BMI research that risk aversion would be an internal BMI barrier. However, with this study, it becomes clear that it is not risk aversion that inhibits BMI. Instead, the lack of information prevents risk-averse decision-makers from choosing a riskier option. Simultaneously, results show that risk-averse decision-makers are not easily carried away by the higher risk-willingness of their team members. Instead, they use social interaction to gather missing information. Therefore, executives need to provide sufficient information to all decision-makers to catch promising business opportunities.

Keywords: business model innovation, cognitive biases, group-interaction effects, strategic decision-making, risk-willingness

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Authors: Komol Phaisarn, Anuphan Suttimarn, Vitchanan Keawtong, Kittisak Thongyoun, Chaiyos Jamsawang

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This article is intended to analyze insurance information which contains information on the customer decision when purchasing life insurance pay package. The data were analyzed in order to present new customers with Life Insurance Perfect Pay package to meet new customers’ needs as much as possible. The basic data of insurance pay package were collect to get data mining; thus, reducing the scattering of information. The data were then classified in order to get decision model or decision tree using Algorithm C4.5 (J-48). In the classification, WEKA tools are used to form the model and testing datasets are used to test the decision tree for the accurate decision. The validation of this model in classifying showed that the accurate prediction was 68.43% while 31.25% were errors. The same set of data were then tested with other models, i.e. Naive Bayes and Zero R. The results showed that J-48 method could predict more accurately. So, the researcher applied the decision tree in writing the program used to introduce the product to new customers to persuade customers’ decision making in purchasing the insurance package that meets the new customers’ needs as much as possible.

Keywords: decision tree, data mining, customers, life insurance pay package

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Authors: Ange Weinrabe, James Tran, Ian B. Hickie

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Risk-taking behaviour is common during youth. In the time between adolescence and early adulthood, young people (aged 15-25 years) are more vulnerable to mood disorders, such as anxiety and depression. What impact does an emerging mood disorder have on decision-making in youth at critical decision points in their lives? In this article, we explore the impact of risk and ambiguity on youth decision-making in a clinical setting using a well-known economic experiment. At two time points, separated by six to eight weeks, we measured risky and ambiguous choices concurrently with findings from three psychological questionnaires, the 10-item Kessler Psychological Distress Scale (K10), the 17-item Quick Inventory of Depressive Symptomatology Adolescent Version (QIDS-A17), and the 12-item Somatic and Psychological Health Report (SPHERE-12), for young help seekers aged 16-25 (n=30, mean age 19.22 years, 19 males). When first arriving for care, we found that 50% (n=15) of participants experienced severe anxiety (K10 ≥ 30) and were severely depressed (QIDS-A17 ≥ 16). In Session 2, taking attrition rates into account (n=5), we found that 44% (n=11) remained severe across the full battery of questionnaires. When applying multiple regression analyses of the pooled sample of observations (N=55), across both sessions, we found that participants who rated severely anxious avoided making risky decisions. We suggest there is some statistically significant (although weak) (p=0.09) relation between risk and severe anxiety scores as measured by K10. Our findings may support working with novel tools with which to evaluate youth experiencing an emerging mood disorder and their cognitive capacities influencing decision-making.

Keywords: anxiety, decision-making, risk, adolescence

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Authors: Malay Niraj, Praveen Kumar

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The present study is a new approach for improving equipment life and Overall Equipment Efficiency (O.E.E.) through suitable maintenance practice with the help of value engineering. Value engineering is a one of the most powerful decision-making techniques which depend on many factors. The improvements are the result of recommendations made by multidisciplinary teams representing all parties involved. VE is a rigorous, systematic effort to improve the OEE and optimize the life cycle cost of a facility. The study describes problems in maintenance arising due to the absence of having clear criteria and strong decision constrain how to maintain failing equipment. Using factor comparisons, the study has been made between different maintenance practices and finally best maintenance practice based on value engineering technique has been selected.

Keywords: maintenance strategy, overall equipment efficiency, value engineering, decision-making

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Authors: Pavel E. Golosov, Vladimir I. Gorelov, Oksana L. Karelova

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There are visible changes in the world organization, environment and health of national conscience that create a background for discussion on possible redefinition of global, state and regional management goals. Authors apply the sustainable development criteria to a hierarchical management scheme that is to lead the world community to non-contradictory growth. Concrete definitions are discussed in respect of decision-making process representing the state mostly. With the help of system analysis it is highlighted how to understand who would carry the distinctive sign of world leadership in the nearest future.

Keywords: decision-making, information technology, public administration

Procedia PDF Downloads 476

Authors: Jayantha Withanaarachchi, Sujeeva Setunge, Sara Moridpour

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Gaps in strategic thinking and planning lead to critical transport infrastructure resilience. These gaps in strategic transport and land use development planning have an impact on communities and cities. Natural and man-induced disasters can be catastrophic to communities. After a disaster, many types of critical infrastructure, including transport infrastructure gets un-usable or gets damaged. This paper examines strategic thinking behind the resilience and protection of Critical Transport Infrastructure (CI) within transport networks by investigating the impact of disasters such as bushfires, hurricanes and earthquakes. A detailed analysis of three case studies have been conducted to identify the gaps in strategic transport planning and strategic decision making processes required to mitigate the impacts of disasters. Case studies will be analysed to identify existing gaps in road design, transport planning and decision making. This paper examines the effect of road designing, transport corridors and decision making during transport planning stages and how it impacts transport infrastructure as well as community resilience. A set of recommendations to overcome the shortcomings of existing strategic planning and designing process are presented. This research paper reviews transport infrastructure planning issues and presents the common approach suitable for future strategic thinking and planning which could be adopted in practices.

Keywords: community resilience, decision making , infrastructure resilience, strategic transport planning, transport infrastructure

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Authors: Rewadee Waiyawassana

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The objectives of the research on Thai tourists’ satisfaction of visiting Southern of Thailand are i) to study the Thai tourists’ satisfaction who select southern of Thailand as their destinations ii) to study their tourist’s decision making process in Southern of Thailand. The samples of the study are 619 Thai visitors at Southern of Thailand by accidental sampling technic and focus group interview for 12 key informant by purposive sampling. The data analysis includes Percentage, Frequency and One-way ANOVA. The findings from the research are the satisfaction of Thai visitors on southern of Thailand ranks from the resources of the destination, transportation, convenience, security, and promotion and public relations; with the high level of satisfaction on all the factors the government or responsible agencies should also modernize the marketing and public relation with increasing public relations, the potential visitors shall be updated with new information and alternative tourist destination also.

Keywords: public relations, Southern of Thailand, Thai Tourists’ satisfaction, Tourist’s decision making process

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Authors: Keiko Yamauchi, Motoyuki Nakao, Yoko Ishihara

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The increase in the number of women with breast cancer in Japan has required hospitals to provide a higher quality of medicine so that patients are satisfied with the treatment they receive. However, patients’ satisfaction following breast cancer treatment has not been sufficiently studied. Hence, we investigated the factors influencing patient satisfaction following breast cancer treatment among Japanese women. These women underwent either breast-conserving surgery (BCS) (n = 380) or total mastectomy (TM) (n = 247). In March 2016, we conducted a cross-sectional internet survey of Japanese women with breast cancer in Japan. We assessed the following factors: socioeconomic status, cancer-related information, the role of medical decision-making, the degree of satisfaction regarding the treatments received, and the regret arising from the medical decision-making processes. We performed logistic regression analyses with the following dependent variables: extreme satisfaction with the treatments received, and regret regarding the medical decision-making process. For both types of surgery, the odds ratio (OR) of being extremely satisfied with the cancer treatment was significantly higher among patients who did not have any regrets compared to patients who had. Also, the OR tended to be higher among patients who chose to play a wanted role in the medical decision-making process, compared with patients who did not. In the BCS group, the OR of being extremely satisfied with the treatment was higher if, at diagnosis, the patient’s youngest child was older than 19 years, compared with patients with no children. The OR was also higher if patient considered the stage and characteristics of their cancer significant. The OR of being extremely satisfied with the treatments was lower among patients who were not employed on full-time basis, and among patients who considered the second medical opinions and medical expenses to be significant. These associations were not observed in the TM group. The OR of having regrets regarding the medical decision-making process was higher among patients who chose to play a role in the decision-making process as they preferred, and was also higher in patients who were employed on either a part-time or contractual basis. For both types of surgery, the OR was higher among patients who considered a second medical opinion to be significant. Regardless of surgical type, regret regarding the medical decision-making process decreases treatment satisfaction. Patients who received breast-conserving surgery were more likely to have regrets concerning the medical decision-making process if they could not play a role in the process as they preferred. In addition, factors associated with the satisfaction with treatment in BCS group but not TM group included the second medical opinion, medical expenses, employment status, and age of the youngest child at diagnosis.

Keywords: medical decision making, breast-conserving surgery, total mastectomy, Japanese

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Authors: Ali A. Abdollahi

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During the last several decades, scientists have consistently applied Multiple Criteria Decision-Making methods in making decisions about multi-faceted, complicated subjects. While making such decisions and in order to achieve more accurate evaluations, they have regularly used a variety of criteria instead of applying just one Optimum Evaluation Criterion. The method presented here utilizes both ‘quantity’ and ‘quality’ to assess the function of the Multiple-Criteria method. Applying Data envelopment analysis (DEA), weighted aggregated sum product assessment (WASPAS), Weighted Sum Approach (WSA), Analytic Network Process (ANP), and Charnes, Cooper, Rhodes (CCR) methods, we have analyzed thirteen parks in Kerman city. It further indicates that the functions of WASPAS and WSA are compatible with each other, but also that their deviation from DEA is extensive. Finally, the results for the CCR technique do not match the results of the DEA technique. Our study indicates that the ANP method, with the average rate of 1/51, ranks closest to the DEA method, which has an average rate of 1/49.

Keywords: multiple criteria decision making, Data envelopment analysis (DEA), Charnes Cooper Rhodes (CCR), Weighted Sum Approach (WSA)

Procedia PDF Downloads 184