Search results for: conditional density estimation
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 5294

Search results for: conditional density estimation

5114 Estimation and Restoration of Ill-Posed Parameters for Underwater Motion Blurred Images

Authors: M. Vimal Raj, S. Sakthivel Murugan

Abstract:

Underwater images degrade their quality due to atmospheric conditions. One of the major problems in an underwater image is motion blur caused by the imaging device or the movement of the object. In order to rectify that in post-imaging, parameters of the blurred image are to be estimated. So, the point spread function is estimated by the properties, using the spectrum of the image. To improve the estimation accuracy of the parameters, Optimized Polynomial Lagrange Interpolation (OPLI) method is implemented after the angle and length measurement of motion-blurred images. Initially, the data were collected from real-time environments in Chennai and processed. The proposed OPLI method shows better accuracy than the existing classical Cepstral, Hough, and Radon transform estimation methods for underwater images.

Keywords: image restoration, motion blur, parameter estimation, radon transform, underwater

Procedia PDF Downloads 155
5113 A Low Power and High-Speed Conditional-Precharge Sense Amplifier Based Flip-Flop Using Single Ended Latch

Authors: Guo-Ming Sung, Ramavath Naga Raju Naik

Abstract:

This paper presents a low power, high speed, sense-amplifier based flip-flop (SAFF). The flip-flop’s power con-sumption and delay are greatly reduced by employing a new conditionally precharge sense-amplifier stage and a single-ended latch stage. Glitch-free and contention-free latch operation is achieved by using a conditional cut-off strategy. The design uses fewer transistors, has a lower clock load, and has a simple structure, all of which contribute to a near-zero setup time. When compared to previous flip-flop structures proposed for similar input/output conditions, this design’s performance and overall PDP have improved. The post layout simulation of the circuit uses 2.91µW of power and has a delay of 65.82 ps. Overall, the power-delay product has seen some enhancements. Cadence Virtuoso Designing tool with CMOS 90nm technology are used for all designs.

Keywords: high-speed, low-power, flip-flop, sense-amplifier

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5112 Assessing Relationships between Glandularity and Gray Level by Using Breast Phantoms

Authors: Yun-Xuan Tang, Pei-Yuan Liu, Kun-Mu Lu, Min-Tsung Tseng, Liang-Kuang Chen, Yuh-Feng Tsai, Ching-Wen Lee, Jay Wu

Abstract:

Breast cancer is predominant of malignant tumors in females. The increase in the glandular density increases the risk of breast cancer. BI-RADS is a frequently used density indicator in mammography; however, it significantly overestimates the glandularity. Therefore, it is very important to accurately and quantitatively assess the glandularity by mammography. In this study, 20%, 30% and 50% glandularity phantoms were exposed using a mammography machine at 28, 30 and 31 kVp, and 30, 55, 80 and 105 mAs, respectively. The regions of interest (ROIs) were drawn to assess the gray level. The relationship between the glandularity and gray level under various compression thicknesses, kVp, and mAs was established by the multivariable linear regression. A phantom verification was performed with automatic exposure control (AEC). The regression equation was obtained with an R-square value of 0.928. The average gray levels of the verification phantom were 8708, 8660 and 8434 for 0.952, 0.963 and 0.985 g/cm3, respectively. The percent differences of glandularity to the regression equation were 3.24%, 2.75% and 13.7%. We concluded that the proposed method could be clinically applied in mammography to improve the glandularity estimation and further increase the importance of breast cancer screening.

Keywords: mammography, glandularity, gray value, BI-RADS

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5111 Markov Switching of Conditional Variance

Authors: Josip Arneric, Blanka Skrabic Peric

Abstract:

Forecasting of volatility, i.e. returns fluctuations, has been a topic of interest to portfolio managers, option traders and market makers in order to get higher profits or less risky positions. Based on the fact that volatility is time varying in high frequency data and that periods of high volatility tend to cluster, the most common used models are GARCH type models. As standard GARCH models show high volatility persistence, i.e. integrated behaviour of the conditional variance, it is difficult the predict volatility using standard GARCH models. Due to practical limitations of these models different approaches have been proposed in the literature, based on Markov switching models. In such situations models in which the parameters are allowed to change over time are more appropriate because they allow some part of the model to depend on the state of the economy. The empirical analysis demonstrates that Markov switching GARCH model resolves the problem of excessive persistence and outperforms uni-regime GARCH models in forecasting volatility for selected emerging markets.

Keywords: emerging markets, Markov switching, GARCH model, transition probabilities

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5110 Constructing the Density of States from the Parallel Wang Landau Algorithm Overlapping Data

Authors: Arman S. Kussainov, Altynbek K. Beisekov

Abstract:

This work focuses on building an efficient universal procedure to construct a single density of states from the multiple pieces of data provided by the parallel implementation of the Wang Landau Monte Carlo based algorithm. The Ising and Pott models were used as the examples of the two-dimensional spin lattices to construct their densities of states. Sampled energy space was distributed between the individual walkers with certain overlaps. This was made to include the latest development of the algorithm as the density of states replica exchange technique. Several factors of immediate importance for the seamless stitching process have being considered. These include but not limited to the speed and universality of the initial parallel algorithm implementation as well as the data post-processing to produce the expected smooth density of states.

Keywords: density of states, Monte Carlo, parallel algorithm, Wang Landau algorithm

Procedia PDF Downloads 368
5109 On Parameter Estimation of Simultaneous Linear Functional Relationship Model for Circular Variables

Authors: N. A. Mokhtar, A. G. Hussin, Y. Z. Zubairi

Abstract:

This paper proposes a new simultaneous simple linear functional relationship model by assuming equal error variances. We derive the maximum likelihood estimate of the parameters in the simultaneous model and the covariance. We show by simulation study the small bias values of the parameters suggest the suitability of the estimation method. As an illustration, the proposed simultaneous model is applied to real data of the wind direction and wave direction measured by two different instruments.

Keywords: simultaneous linear functional relationship model, Fisher information matrix, parameter estimation, circular variables

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5108 Effect of Adjacent Footings on Elastic Settlement of Shallow Foundations

Authors: Mustafa Aytekin

Abstract:

In this study, impact of adjacent footings is considered on the estimation of elastic settlement of shallow foundations. In the estimation of elastic settlement, the Schmertmann’s method that is a very popular method in the elastic settlement estimation of shallow foundations is employed. In order to consider affect of neighboring footings on elastic settlement of main footing in different configurations, a MATLAB script has been generated. Elastic settlements of the various configurations are estimated by the script and several conclusions have been reached.

Keywords: elastic (immediate) settlement, Schmertman Method, adjacent footings, shallow foundations

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5107 Kalman Filter Gain Elimination in Linear Estimation

Authors: Nicholas D. Assimakis

Abstract:

In linear estimation, the traditional Kalman filter uses the Kalman filter gain in order to produce estimation and prediction of the n-dimensional state vector using the m-dimensional measurement vector. The computation of the Kalman filter gain requires the inversion of an m x m matrix in every iteration. In this paper, a variation of the Kalman filter eliminating the Kalman filter gain is proposed. In the time varying case, the elimination of the Kalman filter gain requires the inversion of an n x n matrix and the inversion of an m x m matrix in every iteration. In the time invariant case, the elimination of the Kalman filter gain requires the inversion of an n x n matrix in every iteration. The proposed Kalman filter gain elimination algorithm may be faster than the conventional Kalman filter, depending on the model dimensions.

Keywords: discrete time, estimation, Kalman filter, Kalman filter gain

Procedia PDF Downloads 163
5106 A Periodogram-Based Spectral Method Approach: The Relationship between Tourism and Economic Growth in Turkey

Authors: Mesut BALIBEY, Serpil TÜRKYILMAZ

Abstract:

A popular topic in the econometrics and time series area is the cointegrating relationships among the components of a nonstationary time series. Engle and Granger’s least squares method and Johansen’s conditional maximum likelihood method are the most widely-used methods to determine the relationships among variables. Furthermore, a method proposed to test a unit root based on the periodogram ordinates has certain advantages over conventional tests. Periodograms can be calculated without any model specification and the exact distribution under the assumption of a unit root is obtained. For higher order processes the distribution remains the same asymptotically. In this study, in order to indicate advantages over conventional test of periodograms, we are going to examine a possible relationship between tourism and economic growth during the period 1999:01-2010:12 for Turkey by using periodogram method, Johansen’s conditional maximum likelihood method, Engle and Granger’s ordinary least square method.

Keywords: cointegration, economic growth, periodogram ordinate, tourism

Procedia PDF Downloads 242
5105 Brain Age Prediction Based on Brain Magnetic Resonance Imaging by 3D Convolutional Neural Network

Authors: Leila Keshavarz Afshar, Hedieh Sajedi

Abstract:

Estimation of biological brain age from MR images is a topic that has been much addressed in recent years due to the importance it attaches to early diagnosis of diseases such as Alzheimer's. In this paper, we use a 3D Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to provide a method for estimating the biological age of the brain. The 3D-CNN model is trained by MRI data that has been normalized. In addition, to reduce computation while saving overall performance, some effectual slices are selected for age estimation. By this method, the biological age of individuals using selected normalized data was estimated with Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 4.82 years.

Keywords: brain age estimation, biological age, 3D-CNN, deep learning, T1-weighted image, SPM, preprocessing, MRI, canny, gray matter

Procedia PDF Downloads 118
5104 Age Estimation Using Atlas Method with Orthopantomogram and Digital Tracing on Lateral Cephalogram

Authors: Astika Swastirani

Abstract:

Chronological age estimation can be done by looking at the stage of growth and development of teeth from orthopantomogram and mandibular remodeling from lateral cephalogram. Mandibular morphological changes associated with the size and remodeling during growth is a strong indicator of age estimation. These changes can be observed with lateral cephalogram. Objective: To prove the difference between chronological age and age estimation using orthopantomogram (dental age) and lateral cephalogram (skeletal age). Methods: Sample consisted of 100 medical records, 100 orthopantomograms digital and 100 lateral cephalograms digital belongs to 50 male and 50 female of Airlangga University hospital of dentistry. Orthopantomogram were matched with London atlas and lateral cephalograms were observed by digital tracing. The difference of dental age and skeletal age was analyzed by pair t –test. Result: Result of the pair t-test between chronological age and dental age in male (p-value 0.002, p<0.05), in female (p-value 0.605, p>0.05). Result of pair t-test between the chronological age and skeletal age (variable length Condylion-Gonion, Gonion-Gnathion, Condylion-Gnathion in male (p-value 0.000, p<0.05) in female (variable Condylion-Gonion length (p-value 0.000, Condylion-Gnathion length (p-value 0,040) and Gonion-Gnathion length (p-value 0.493). Conclusion: Orthopantomogram with London atlas and lateral cephalograms with Gonion- Gnathion variable can be used for age estimation in female. Orthopantomogram with London atlas and lateral cephalograms with Condylion-Gonion variable, Gonion-Gnathion variable and Condylion-Gnathion can not be used for age estimation in male.

Keywords: age estimation, chronological age, dental age, skeletal age

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5103 Estimation and Comparison of Delay at Signalized Intersections Based on Existing Methods

Authors: Arpita Saha, Satish Chandra, Indrajit Ghosh

Abstract:

Delay implicates the time loss of a traveler while crossing an intersection. Efficiency of traffic operation at signalized intersections is assessed in terms of delay caused to an individual vehicle. Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) method and Webster’s method are the most widely used in India for delay estimation purpose. However, in India, traffic is highly heterogeneous in nature with extremely poor lane discipline. Therefore, to explore best delay estimation technique for Indian condition, a comparison was made. In this study, seven signalized intersections from three different cities where chosen. Data was collected for both during morning and evening peak hours. Only under saturated cycles were considered for this study. Delay was estimated based on the field data. With the help of Simpson’s 1/3 rd rule, delay of under saturated cycles was estimated by measuring the area under the curve of queue length and cycle time. Moreover, the field observed delay was compared with the delay estimated using HCM, Webster, Probabilistic, Taylor’s expansion and Regression methods. The drawbacks of the existing delay estimation methods to be use in Indian heterogeneous traffic conditions were figured out, and best method was proposed. It was observed that direct estimation of delay using field measured data is more accurate than existing conventional and modified methods.

Keywords: delay estimation technique, field delay, heterogeneous traffic, signalised intersection

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5102 Study of Harmonics Estimation on Analog kWh Meter Using Fast Fourier Transform Method

Authors: Amien Rahardjo, Faiz Husnayain, Iwa Garniwa

Abstract:

PLN used the kWh meter to determine the amount of energy consumed by the household customers. High precision of kWh meter is needed in order to give accuracy results as the accuracy can be decreased due to the presence of harmonic. In this study, an estimation of active power consumed was developed. Based on the first year study results, the largest deviation due to harmonics can reach up to 9.8% in 2200VA and 12.29% in 3500VA with kWh meter analog. In the second year of study, deviation of digital customer meter reaches 2.01% and analog meter up to 9.45% for 3500VA household customers. The aim of this research is to produce an estimation system to calculate the total energy consumed by household customer using analog meter so the losses due to irregularities PLN recording of energy consumption based on the measurement used Analog kWh-meter installed is avoided.

Keywords: harmonics estimation, harmonic distortion, kWh meters analog and digital, THD, household customers

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5101 Parametric Estimation of U-Turn Vehicles

Authors: Yonas Masresha Aymeku

Abstract:

The purpose of capacity modelling at U-turns is to develop a relationship between capacity and its geometric characteristics. In fact, the few models available for the estimation of capacity at different transportation facilities do not provide specific guidelines for median openings. For this reason, an effort is made to estimate the capacity by collecting the data sets from median openings at different lane roads in Hyderabad City, India. Wide difference (43% -59%) among the capacity values estimated by the existing models shows the limitation to consider for mixed traffic situations. Thus, a distinct model is proposed for the estimation of the capacity of U-turn vehicles at median openings considering mixed traffic conditions, which would further prompt to investigate the effect of different factors that might affect the capacity.

Keywords: geometric, guiddelines, median, vehicles

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5100 The Effect of Ingredients Mixing Sequence in Rubber Compounding on the Formation of Bound Rubber and Cross-Link Density of Natural Rubber

Authors: Abu Hasan, Rochmadi, Hary Sulistyo, Suharto Honggokusumo

Abstract:

This research purpose is to study the effect of Ingredients mixing sequence in rubber compounding onto the formation of bound rubber and cross link density of natural rubber and also the relationship of bound rubber and cross link density. Analysis of bound rubber formation of rubber compound and cross link density of rubber vulcanizates were carried out on a natural rubber formula having masticated and mixing, followed by curing. There were four methods of mixing and each mixing process was followed by four mixing sequence methods of carbon black into the rubber. In the first method of mixing sequence, rubber was masticated for 5 min and then rubber chemicals and carbon black N 330 were added simultaneously. In the second one, rubber was masticated for 1 min and followed by addition of rubber chemicals and carbon black N 330 simultaneously using the different method of mixing then the first one. In the third one, carbon black N 660 was used for the same mixing procedure of the second one, and in the last one, rubber was masticated for 3 min, carbon black N 330 and rubber chemicals were added subsequently. The addition of rubber chemicals and carbon black into masticated rubber was distinguished by the sequence and time allocated for each mixing process. Carbon black was added into two stages. In the first stage, 10 phr was added first and the remaining 40 phr was added later along with oil. In the second one to the fourth one, the addition of carbon black in the first and the second stage was added in the phr ratio 20:30, 30:20, and 40:10. The results showed that the ingredients mixing process influenced bound rubber formation and cross link density. In the three methods of mixing, the bound rubber formation was proportional with crosslink density. In contrast in the fourth one, bound rubber formation and cross link density had contradictive relation. Regardless of the mixing method operated, bound rubber had non linear relationship with cross link density. The high cross link density was formed when low bound rubber formation. The cross link density became constant at high bound rubber content.

Keywords: bound-rubber, cross-link density, natural rubber, rubber mixing process

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5099 Bayesian Estimation of Hierarchical Models for Genotypic Differentiation of Arabidopsis thaliana

Authors: Gautier Viaud, Paul-Henry Cournède

Abstract:

Plant growth models have been used extensively for the prediction of the phenotypic performance of plants. However, they remain most often calibrated for a given genotype and therefore do not take into account genotype by environment interactions. One way of achieving such an objective is to consider Bayesian hierarchical models. Three levels can be identified in such models: The first level describes how a given growth model describes the phenotype of the plant as a function of individual parameters, the second level describes how these individual parameters are distributed within a plant population, the third level corresponds to the attribution of priors on population parameters. Thanks to the Bayesian framework, choosing appropriate priors for the population parameters permits to derive analytical expressions for the full conditional distributions of these population parameters. As plant growth models are of a nonlinear nature, individual parameters cannot be sampled explicitly, and a Metropolis step must be performed. This allows for the use of a hybrid Gibbs--Metropolis sampler. A generic approach was devised for the implementation of both general state space models and estimation algorithms within a programming platform. It was designed using the Julia language, which combines an elegant syntax, metaprogramming capabilities and exhibits high efficiency. Results were obtained for Arabidopsis thaliana on both simulated and real data. An organ-scale Greenlab model for the latter is thus presented, where the surface areas of each individual leaf can be simulated. It is assumed that the error made on the measurement of leaf areas is proportional to the leaf area itself; multiplicative normal noises for the observations are therefore used. Real data were obtained via image analysis of zenithal images of Arabidopsis thaliana over a period of 21 days using a two-step segmentation and tracking algorithm which notably takes advantage of the Arabidopsis thaliana phyllotaxy. Since the model formulation is rather flexible, there is no need that the data for a single individual be available at all times, nor that the times at which data is available be the same for all the different individuals. This allows to discard data from image analysis when it is not considered reliable enough, thereby providing low-biased data in large quantity for leaf areas. The proposed model precisely reproduces the dynamics of Arabidopsis thaliana’s growth while accounting for the variability between genotypes. In addition to the estimation of the population parameters, the level of variability is an interesting indicator of the genotypic stability of model parameters. A promising perspective is to test whether some of the latter should be considered as fixed effects.

Keywords: bayesian, genotypic differentiation, hierarchical models, plant growth models

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5098 Estimation of Emanation Properties of Kimberlites and Host Rocks of Lomonosov Diamond Deposit in Russia

Authors: E. Yu. Yakovlev, A. V. Puchkov

Abstract:

The study is devoted to experimental work on the assessment of emanation properties of kimberlites and host rocks of the Lomonosov diamond deposit of the Arkhangelsk diamondiferous province. The aim of the study is estimation the factors influencing on formation of the radon field over kimberlite pipes. For various types of rocks composing the kimberlite pipe and near-pipe space, the following parameters were measured: porosity, density, radium-226 activity, activity of free radon and emanation coefficient. The research results showed that the largest amount of free radon is produced by rocks of near-pipe space, which are the Vendian host deposits and are characterized by high values of the emanation coefficient, radium activity and porosity. The lowest values of these parameters are characteristic of vent-facies kimberlites, which limit the formation of activity of free radon in body of the pipe. The results of experimental work confirm the prospects of using emanation methods for prospecting of kimberlite pipes.

Keywords: emanation coefficient, kimberlites, porosity, radon volumetric activity

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5097 UV Enhanced Hydrophilicity of the Anodized Films Formed at Low Current Density and Low Voltage

Authors: Phanawan Whangdee, Tomoaki Watanabe, Viritpon Srimaneepong, Dujreutai Pongkao Kashima

Abstract:

The anodized films formed at high current density or high voltage have been widely prepared for dental implant because it can improve the hydrophilicity to the film. Our attempt is exploring whether low current density and low voltage could enhance the good hydrophilicity to the anodized films or not. Furthermore, UV irradiation would be one of the key factor to enhance their hydrophilicity. The anodized films were performed at low current density of 2 mA/cm2 in 1M H3PO4, 1 mA/cm2 in 1M MCPM and low voltage of 6 V in either 1M H3PO4 or 1M MCPM. All samples were treated with UV for various times up to 24 h. After UV irradiation, the contact angle decreased, the chemical species changed. The Ti 2p and O 1s peaks increased, while the C 1s peak decreased which might be due to removal of hydrocarbon. The functional groups of the films shown as the change of OH groups appeared at wave number 3700 cm-1 and 2900-3000 cm-1, however, the peak of H2O at 1630 cm-1disappeared. It is indicated that UV irradiation might change the stretching modes of OH groups coordinated to surface Ti4+ cation but UV did not affect to the changes in surface morphologies. The surface energies increased after UV irradiation resulting in improving of the hydrophilicity. The anodized films formed at low current density or low voltage after UV irradiation showed a low contact angle as well as the film formed at high current density or high voltage.

Keywords: hydrophilicity, low current density, low voltage, UV irradiation

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5096 Channel Estimation for Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing Systems over Doubly Selective Channels Base on DCS-DCSOMP Algorithm

Authors: Linyu Wang, Furui Huo, Jianhong Xiang

Abstract:

The Doppler shift generated by high-speed movement and multipath effects in the channel are the main reasons for the generation of a time-frequency doubly-selective (DS) channel. There is severe inter-carrier interference (ICI) in the DS channel. Channel estimation for an orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) system over a DS channel is very difficult. The simultaneous orthogonal matching pursuit algorithm under distributed compressive sensing theory (DCS-SOMP) has been used in channel estimation for OFDM systems over DS channels. However, the reconstruction accuracy of the DCS-SOMP algorithm is not high enough in the low SNR stage. To solve this problem, in this paper, we propose an improved DCS-SOMP algorithm based on the inner product difference comparison operation (DCS-DCSOMP). The reconstruction accuracy is improved by increasing the number of candidate indexes and designing the comparison conditions of inner product difference. We combine the DCS-DCSOMP algorithm with the basis expansion model (BEM) to reduce the complexity of channel estimation. Simulation results show the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm and its advantages over other algorithms.

Keywords: OFDM, doubly selective, channel estimation, compressed sensing

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5095 Mobile Platform’s Attitude Determination Based on Smoothed GPS Code Data and Carrier-Phase Measurements

Authors: Mohamed Ramdani, Hassen Abdellaoui, Abdenour Boudrassen

Abstract:

Mobile platform’s attitude estimation approaches mainly based on combined positioning techniques and developed algorithms; which aim to reach a fast and accurate solution. In this work, we describe the design and the implementation of an attitude determination (AD) process, using only measurements from GPS sensors. The major issue is based on smoothed GPS code data using Hatch filter and raw carrier-phase measurements integrated into attitude algorithm based on vectors measurement using least squares (LSQ) estimation method. GPS dataset from a static experiment is used to investigate the effectiveness of the presented approach and consequently to check the accuracy of the attitude estimation algorithm. Attitude results from GPS multi-antenna over short baselines are introduced and analyzed. The 3D accuracy of estimated attitude parameters using smoothed measurements is over 0.27°.

Keywords: attitude determination, GPS code data smoothing, hatch filter, carrier-phase measurements, least-squares attitude estimation

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5094 Estimating the Probability of Winning the Best Actor/Actress Award Conditional on the Best Picture Nomination with Bayesian Hierarchical Models

Authors: Svetlana K. Eden

Abstract:

Movies and TV shows have long become part of modern culture. We all have our preferred genre, story, actors, and actresses. However, can we objectively discern good acting from the bad? As laymen, we are probably not objective, but what about the Oscar academy members? Are their votes based on objective measures? Oscar academy members are probably also biased due to many factors, including their professional affiliations or advertisement exposure. Heavily advertised films bring more publicity to their cast and are likely to have bigger budgets. Because a bigger budget may also help earn a Best Picture (BP) nomination, we hypothesize that best actor/actress (BA) nominees from BP-nominated movies would have higher chances of winning the award than those BA nominees from non-BP-nominated films. To test this hypothesis, three Bayesian hierarchical models are proposed, and their performance is evaluated. The results from all three models largely support our hypothesis. Depending on the proportion of BP nominations among BA nominees, the odds ratios (estimated over expected) of winning the BA award conditional on BP nomination vary from 2.8 [0.8-7.0] to 4.3 [2.0, 15.8] for actors and from 1.5 [0.0, 12.2] to 5.4 [2.7, 14.2] for actresses.

Keywords: Oscar, best picture, best actor/actress, bias

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5093 The Theory behind Logistic Regression

Authors: Jan Henrik Wosnitza

Abstract:

The logistic regression has developed into a standard approach for estimating conditional probabilities in a wide range of applications including credit risk prediction. The article at hand contributes to the current literature on logistic regression fourfold: First, it is demonstrated that the binary logistic regression automatically meets its model assumptions under very general conditions. This result explains, at least in part, the logistic regression's popularity. Second, the requirement of homoscedasticity in the context of binary logistic regression is theoretically substantiated. The variances among the groups of defaulted and non-defaulted obligors have to be the same across the level of the aggregated default indicators in order to achieve linear logits. Third, this article sheds some light on the question why nonlinear logits might be superior to linear logits in case of a small amount of data. Fourth, an innovative methodology for estimating correlations between obligor-specific log-odds is proposed. In order to crystallize the key ideas, this paper focuses on the example of credit risk prediction. However, the results presented in this paper can easily be transferred to any other field of application.

Keywords: correlation, credit risk estimation, default correlation, homoscedasticity, logistic regression, nonlinear logistic regression

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5092 Estimation of Chronic Kidney Disease Using Artificial Neural Network

Authors: Ilker Ali Ozkan

Abstract:

In this study, an artificial neural network model has been developed to estimate chronic kidney failure which is a common disease. The patients’ age, their blood and biochemical values, and 24 input data which consists of various chronic diseases are used for the estimation process. The input data have been subjected to preprocessing because they contain both missing values and nominal values. 147 patient data which was obtained from the preprocessing have been divided into as 70% training and 30% testing data. As a result of the study, artificial neural network model with 25 neurons in the hidden layer has been found as the model with the lowest error value. Chronic kidney failure disease has been able to be estimated accurately at the rate of 99.3% using this artificial neural network model. The developed artificial neural network has been found successful for the estimation of chronic kidney failure disease using clinical data.

Keywords: estimation, artificial neural network, chronic kidney failure disease, disease diagnosis

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5091 The Effect of Different Composition of Dairy Cattle Feces Briquette on Moisture and Briquette Density

Authors: Dita Aviana Dewi, Heri Muji, Dian Nur Amalia, Nanung Agus Fitriyanto

Abstract:

Utilization of cow feces as a source of alternative energy can be done with turn it as briquettes. Cow feces generate heat around 4000 Cal/g and the methane gas (CH4) are quite high. Methane gas is one of the essential elements in briquettes which serve as the ignition, so that is resulting briquettes combustible. This study aims to know the difference of the composition of the constituents of briquette moisture content and density. Dairy cattle feces used as the main ingredient with additional material from the waste of the agricultural industry in the form of husk. This study was conducted with three treatments, namely T0= feces 1: husk 1, T1= feces 2: husk 1, and T2= feces 3: husk 1. Each treatment was replicated three times. The experimental design used was Complete Random Design Pattern in line with testing of Dunnet. The observed variables are moisture content and density of the briquettes. Results of this study showed an average moisture content of T0 is 31,17%, T1 is 28,14%, and T2 is 49.95%. The average density of briquettes at T0 is 1,0787 g/cm3, T1 is 1,1448 g/cm3, and T2 is 1,1133 g/cm3. Summary of the study is to take the difference of the composition of the feces and the husk do not have significant effects on moisture content and density of briquettes (p < 0.05).

Keywords: dairy cattle feces, briquette, moisture, density

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5090 Anisotropic Approach for Discontinuity Preserving in Optical Flow Estimation

Authors: Pushpendra Kumar, Sanjeev Kumar, R. Balasubramanian

Abstract:

Estimation of optical flow from a sequence of images using variational methods is one of the most successful approach. Discontinuity between different motions is one of the challenging problem in flow estimation. In this paper, we design a new anisotropic diffusion operator, which is able to provide smooth flow over a region and efficiently preserve discontinuity in optical flow. This operator is designed on the basis of intensity differences of the pixels and isotropic operator using exponential function. The combination of these are used to control the propagation of flow. Experimental results on the different datasets verify the robustness and accuracy of the algorithm and also validate the effect of anisotropic operator in the discontinuity preserving.

Keywords: optical flow, variational methods, computer vision, anisotropic operator

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5089 Functional Decomposition Based Effort Estimation Model for Software-Intensive Systems

Authors: Nermin Sökmen

Abstract:

An effort estimation model is needed for software-intensive projects that consist of hardware, embedded software or some combination of the two, as well as high level software solutions. This paper first focuses on functional decomposition techniques to measure functional complexity of a computer system and investigates its impact on system development effort. Later, it examines effects of technical difficulty and design team capability factors in order to construct the best effort estimation model. With using traditional regression analysis technique, the study develops a system development effort estimation model which takes functional complexity, technical difficulty and design team capability factors as input parameters. Finally, the assumptions of the model are tested.

Keywords: functional complexity, functional decomposition, development effort, technical difficulty, design team capability, regression analysis

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5088 Optical Flow Direction Determination for Railway Crossing Occupancy Monitoring

Authors: Zdenek Silar, Martin Dobrovolny

Abstract:

This article deals with the obstacle detection on a railway crossing (clearance detection). Detection is based on the optical flow estimation and classification of the flow vectors by K-means clustering algorithm. For classification of passing vehicles is used optical flow direction determination. The optical flow estimation is based on a modified Lucas-Kanade method.

Keywords: background estimation, direction of optical flow, K-means clustering, objects detection, railway crossing monitoring, velocity vectors

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5087 Age and Sex Identification among Egyptian Population Using Fingerprint Ridge Density

Authors: Nazih Ramadan, Manal Mohy-Eldine, Amani Hanoon, Alaa Shehab

Abstract:

Background and Aims: The study of fingerprints is widely used in providing a clue regarding identity. Age and gender identification from fingerprints is an important step in forensic anthropology in order to minimize the list of suspects search. The aim of this study was to determine finger ridge density and patterns among Egyptians, and to estimate age and gender using ridge densities. Materials and Methods: This study was conducted on 177 randomly-selected healthy Egyptian subjects (90 males and 87 females). They were divided into three age groups; Group (a): from 6-< 12 years, group (b) from 12-< 18 years and group (c) ≥ 18 years. Bilateral digital prints, from every subject, were obtained by the inking procedure. Ridge count per 25 mm² was determined together with assessment of ridge pattern type. Statistical analysis was done with references to different age and sex groups. Results: There was a statistical significant difference in ridge density between the different age groups; where younger ages had significantly higher ridge density than older ages. Females proved to have significantly higher ridge density than males. Also, there was a statistically significant negative correlation between age and ridge density. Ulnar loops were the most frequent pattern among Egyptians then whorls then arches then radial loops. Finally, different regression models were constructed to estimate age and gender from fingerprints ridge density. Conclusion: fingerprint ridge density can be used to identify both age and sex of subjects. Further studies are recommended on different populations, larger samples or using different methods of fingerprint recording and finger ridge counting.

Keywords: age, sex identification, Egyptian population, fingerprints, ridge density

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5086 A Posterior Predictive Model-Based Control Chart for Monitoring Healthcare

Authors: Yi-Fan Lin, Peter P. Howley, Frank A. Tuyl

Abstract:

Quality measurement and reporting systems are used in healthcare internationally. In Australia, the Australian Council on Healthcare Standards records and reports hundreds of clinical indicators (CIs) nationally across the healthcare system. These CIs are measures of performance in the clinical setting, and are used as a screening tool to help assess whether a standard of care is being met. Existing analysis and reporting of these CIs incorporate Bayesian methods to address sampling variation; however, such assessments are retrospective in nature, reporting upon the previous six or twelve months of data. The use of Bayesian methods within statistical process control for monitoring systems is an important pursuit to support more timely decision-making. Our research has developed and assessed a new graphical monitoring tool, similar to a control chart, based on the beta-binomial posterior predictive (BBPP) distribution to facilitate the real-time assessment of health care organizational performance via CIs. The BBPP charts have been compared with the traditional Bernoulli CUSUM (BC) chart by simulation. The more traditional “central” and “highest posterior density” (HPD) interval approaches were each considered to define the limits, and the multiple charts were compared via in-control and out-of-control average run lengths (ARLs), assuming that the parameter representing the underlying CI rate (proportion of cases with an event of interest) required estimation. Preliminary results have identified that the BBPP chart with HPD-based control limits provides better out-of-control run length performance than the central interval-based and BC charts. Further, the BC chart’s performance may be improved by using Bayesian parameter estimation of the underlying CI rate.

Keywords: average run length (ARL), bernoulli cusum (BC) chart, beta binomial posterior predictive (BBPP) distribution, clinical indicator (CI), healthcare organization (HCO), highest posterior density (HPD) interval

Procedia PDF Downloads 180
5085 SiC Particulate-Reinforced SiC Composites Fabricated by PIP Method Using Highly Concentrated SiC Slurry

Authors: Jian Gu, Sea-Hoon Lee, Jun-Seop Kim

Abstract:

SiC particulate-reinforced SiC ceramic composites (SiCp/SiC) were successfully fabricated using polymer impregnation and pyrolysis (PIP) method. The effects of green density, infiltrated method, pyrolytic temperature, and heating rate on the densification behavior of the composites were investigated. SiCp/SiC particulate reinforced composites with high relative density up to 88.06% were fabricated after 4 PIP cycles using SiC pellets with high green density. The pellets were prepared by drying 62-70 vol.% aqueous SiC slurries, and the maximum relative density of the pellets was 75.5%. The hardness of the as-fabricated SiCp/SiCs was 21.05 GPa after 4 PIP cycles, which value increased to 23.99 GPa after a heat treatment at 2000℃. Excellent mechanical properties, thermal stability, and short processing time render the SiCp/SiC composite as a challenging candidate for the high-temperature application.

Keywords: high green density, mechanical property, polymer impregnation and pyrolysis, structural application

Procedia PDF Downloads 113