Search results for: conditional cash transfers

Authors: Yuzhi Cai

Abstract:

In this paper, we introduce a newly developed quantile function model that can be used for estimating conditional distributions of financial returns and for obtaining multi-step ahead out-of-sample predictive distributions of financial returns. Since we forecast the whole conditional distributions, any predictive quantity of interest about the future financial returns can be obtained simply as a by-product of the method. We also show an application of the model to the daily closing prices of Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) series over the period from 2 January 2004 - 8 October 2010. We obtained the predictive distributions up to 15 days ahead for the DJIA returns, which were further compared with the actually observed returns and those predicted from an AR-GARCH model. The results show that the new model can capture the main features of financial returns and provide a better fitted model together with improved mean forecasts compared with conventional methods. We hope this talk will help audience to see that this new model has the potential to be very useful in practice.

Keywords: DJIA, financial returns, predictive distribution, quantile function model

Procedia PDF Downloads 344

Authors: Walid Chkili

Abstract:

This paper investigates the dynamic relationship between gold and stock markets using data for BRICS counties. For this purpose, we estimate three multivariate GARCH models (namely CCC, DCC and BEKK) for weekly stock and gold data. Our main objective is to examine time variations in conditional correlations between the two assets and to check the effectiveness use of gold as a hedge for equity markets. Empirical results reveal that dynamic conditional correlations switch between positive and negative values over the period under study. This correlation is negative during the major financial crises suggesting that gold can act as a safe haven during the major stress period of stock markets. We also evaluate the implications for portfolio diversification and hedging effectiveness for the pair gold/stock. Our findings suggest that adding gold in the stock portfolio enhance its risk-adjusted return.

Keywords: gold, financial markets, hedge, multivariate GARCH

Procedia PDF Downloads 439

Authors: Shahlan Surat, Saemah Rahman, Saadiah Kummin

Abstract:

When teachers reflect and evaluate whether their teaching methods actually have an impact on students’ learning, they will adjust their practices accordingly. This inevitably improves their students’ learning and performance. The approach in meta-teaching can invigorate and create a passion for teaching. It thus helps to increase the commitment and love for the teaching profession. This study was conducted to determine the level of metacognitive thinking of teachers in the process of teaching and learning in the classroom. Metacognitive thinking teachers include the use of metacognitive knowledge which consists of different types of knowledge: declarative, procedural and conditional. The ability of the teachers to plan, monitor and evaluate the teaching process can also be determined. This study was conducted on 377 graduate teachers in Klang Valley, Malaysia. The stratified sampling method was selected for the purpose of this study. The metacognitive teaching inventory consisting of 24 items is called InKePMG (Teacher Indicators of Effectiveness Meta-Teaching). The results showed the level of mean is high for two components of metacognitive knowledge; declarative knowledge (mean = 4.16) and conditional (mean = 4.11) whereas, the mean of procedural knowledge is 4.00 (moderately high). Similarly, the level of knowledge in monitoring (mean = 4.11), evaluating (mean = 4.00) which indicate high score and planning (mean = 4.00) are moderately high score among teachers. In conclusion, this study shows that the planning and procedural knowledge is an important element in improving the quality of teachers teaching in the classroom. Thus, the researcher recommended that further studies should focus on training programs for teachers on metacognitive skills and also on developing creative thinking among teachers.

Keywords: metacognitive thinking skills, procedural knowledge, conditional knowledge, meta-teaching and regulation of cognitive

Procedia PDF Downloads 380

Authors: Maha Zouaoui Khalifa, Hakim Ben Othman, Hussaney Khaled

Abstract:

Prior empirical studies have investigated the economic consequences of accounting conservatism by examining its impact on the cost of equity capital (COEC). However, findings are not conclusive. We assume that inconsistent results of such association may be attributed to the regression models used in data analysis. To address this issue, we re-examine the effect of different dimension of accounting conservatism: unconditional conservatism (U_CONS) and conditional conservatism (C_CONS) on the COEC for a sample of listed firms from Middle Eastern and North Africa (MENA) countries, applying quantile regression (QR) approach developed by Koenker and Basset (1978). While classical ordinary least square (OLS) method is widely used in empirical accounting research, however it may produce inefficient and bias estimates in the case of departures from normality or long tail error distribution. QR method is more powerful than OLS to handle this kind of problem. It allows the coefficient on the independent variables to shift across the distribution of the dependent variable whereas OLS method only estimates the conditional mean effects of a response variable. We find as predicted that U_CONS has a significant positive effect on the COEC however, C_CONS has a negative impact. Findings suggest also that the effect of the two dimensions of accounting conservatism differs considerably across COEC quantiles. Comparing results from QR method with those of OLS, this study throws more lights on the association between accounting conservatism and COEC.

Keywords: unconditional conservatism, conditional conservatism, cost of equity capital, OLS, quantile regression, emerging markets, MENA countries

Procedia PDF Downloads 328

Authors: Man Li, Wanting Zhou, Lei Li

Abstract:

Communication stability is the primary concern of communication satellites. Communication satellites are easily affected by particle radiation to generate single event effects (SEE), which leads to soft errors (SE) of the combinational logic circuit. The existing research on soft error rates (SER) of the combined logic circuit is mostly based on the assumption that the logic gates being bombarded have the same pulse width. However, in the actual radiation environment, the pulse widths of the logic gates being bombarded are different due to different linear energy transfers (LET). In order to improve the accuracy of SER evaluation model, this paper proposes a soft error rate evaluation method based on LET. In this paper, the authors analyze the influence of LET on the pulse width of combinational logic and establish the pulse width model based on the LET. Based on this model, the error rate of test circuit ISCAS'85 is calculated. The effectiveness of the model is proved by comparing it with previous experiments.

Keywords: communication satellite, pulse width, soft error rates, LET

Procedia PDF Downloads 136

Authors: Farrukh Javed, Krzysztof Podgórski

Abstract:

We propose a new model that accounts for the asymmetric response of volatility to positive ('good news') and negative ('bad news') shocks in economic time series the so-called leverage effect. In the past, asymmetric powers of errors in the conditionally heteroskedastic models have been used to capture this effect. Our model is using the gamma difference representation of the generalized Laplace distributions that efficiently models the asymmetry. It has one additional natural parameter, the shape, that is used instead of power in the asymmetric power models to capture the strength of a long-lasting effect of shocks. Some fundamental properties of the model are provided including the formula for covariances and an explicit form for the conditional distribution of 'bad' and 'good' news processes given the past the property that is important for the statistical fitting of the model. Relevant features of volatility models are illustrated using S&P 500 historical data.

Keywords: heavy tails, volatility clustering, generalized asymmetric laplace distribution, leverage effect, conditional heteroskedasticity, asymmetric power volatility, GARCH models

Procedia PDF Downloads 361

Authors: Ramin Zargarbashi, Hamid Rabie, Behnam Panjavi, Hooman Kamran, Seyedarad Mosalamiaghili, Zohre Erfani, Seyed Peyman Mirghaderi, Maryam Salimi

Abstract:

Background: Posterior shoulder dislocation is one of the disabling complications of brachial plexus birth injury (BPBI), and various treatment options, including capsule and surrounding muscles release for open reduction, humeral derotational osteotomy, and tendon transfers, have been recommended to manage it. In the present study, we aimed to determine the clinical outcome of open reduction with soft tissue release, tendon transfer, and glenoid osteotomy inpatients with BPBI and posterior shoulder dislocation or subluxation. Methods: From 2018 to 2020, 33 patients that underwent open reduction, glenoid osteotomy, and tendon transfer were included. The glenohumeral deformity was classified according to the Waters radiographic classification. Functional assessment was performed using the Mallet grading system before and at least two years after the surgery. Results: The patients were monitored for 26.88± 5.47 months. Their average age was 27.5±14 months. Significant improvement was seen in the overall Mallet score (from 13.5 to 18.91 points) and its segments, including hand to mouth, hand to the neck, global abduction, global external rotation, abduction degree, and external rotation degree. Hand-to-back score and the presence of trumpet sign were significantly decreased in the post-operation phase (all p values<0.001). The above-mentioned variables significantly changed for both infantile and non-infantile dislocations. Conclusion: Our study demonstrated that open reduction along with glenoid osteotomy improves retroversion, and muscle strengthening with different muscle transfers is an effective technique for BPBI.

Keywords: birth injuries, nerve injury, brachial plexus birth palsy, Erb palsy, tendon transfer

Procedia PDF Downloads 68

Authors: Asanga Gunawansa, Shenella Fonseka

Abstract:

On-demand bonds, also known as unconditional bonds, are commonplace in the construction industry as a means of safeguarding the employer from any potential non-performance by a contractor. On-demand bonds may be obtained from commercial banks, and they serve as an undertaking by the issuing bank to honour payment on demand without questioning and/or considering any dispute between the employer and the contractor in relation to the underlying contract. Thus, whether or not a breach had occurred under the underlying contract, which triggers the demand for encashment by the employer, is not a question the bank needs to be concerned with. As a result, an unconditional bond allows the beneficiary to claim the money almost without any condition. Thus, an unconditional bond is as good as cash-in-hand. In the past, establishing fraud on the part of the employer, of which the bank had knowledge, was the only ground on which a bank could dishonour a claim made under an on-demand bond. However, recent jurisprudence in common law countries shows that courts are beginning to consider unconscionable conduct on the part of the employer in claiming under an on-demand bond as a ground that contractors could rely on the prevent the banks from honouring such claims. This has created uncertainty in connection with on-demand bonds and their liquidity. This paper analyzes recent judicial decisions in four common law jurisdictions, namely, England, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Sri Lanka, to identify the scope of using the concept of “unconscionability” as a ground for preventing unreasonable claims for encashment of on-demand bonds. The objective of this paper is to argue that on-demand bonds have lost their effectiveness as “cash-in-hand” and that this is, in fact, an advantage and not an impediment to international commerce, as the purpose of such bonds should not be to provide for illegal and unconscionable conduct by the beneficiaries.

Keywords: fraud, performance guarantees, on-demand bonds, unconscionability

Procedia PDF Downloads 68

Authors: Guo-Ming Sung, Ramavath Naga Raju Naik

Abstract:

This paper presents a low power, high speed, sense-amplifier based flip-flop (SAFF). The flip-flop’s power con-sumption and delay are greatly reduced by employing a new conditionally precharge sense-amplifier stage and a single-ended latch stage. Glitch-free and contention-free latch operation is achieved by using a conditional cut-off strategy. The design uses fewer transistors, has a lower clock load, and has a simple structure, all of which contribute to a near-zero setup time. When compared to previous flip-flop structures proposed for similar input/output conditions, this design’s performance and overall PDP have improved. The post layout simulation of the circuit uses 2.91µW of power and has a delay of 65.82 ps. Overall, the power-delay product has seen some enhancements. Cadence Virtuoso Designing tool with CMOS 90nm technology are used for all designs.

Keywords: high-speed, low-power, flip-flop, sense-amplifier

Procedia PDF Downloads 130

Authors: Josip Arneric, Blanka Skrabic Peric

Abstract:

Forecasting of volatility, i.e. returns fluctuations, has been a topic of interest to portfolio managers, option traders and market makers in order to get higher profits or less risky positions. Based on the fact that volatility is time varying in high frequency data and that periods of high volatility tend to cluster, the most common used models are GARCH type models. As standard GARCH models show high volatility persistence, i.e. integrated behaviour of the conditional variance, it is difficult the predict volatility using standard GARCH models. Due to practical limitations of these models different approaches have been proposed in the literature, based on Markov switching models. In such situations models in which the parameters are allowed to change over time are more appropriate because they allow some part of the model to depend on the state of the economy. The empirical analysis demonstrates that Markov switching GARCH model resolves the problem of excessive persistence and outperforms uni-regime GARCH models in forecasting volatility for selected emerging markets.

Keywords: emerging markets, Markov switching, GARCH model, transition probabilities

Procedia PDF Downloads 432

Authors: Sélima Baccar, Ephraim Clark

Abstract:

This paper can be considered as a new perspective to analyse credit spreads. A comprehensive empirical analysis of conditional variance of credit spreads indices is performed using various GARCH models. Based on a comparison between traditional and asymmetric GARCH models with alternative functional forms of the conditional density, we intend to identify what macroeconomic and financial factors have driven daily changes in the US Dollar credit spreads in the period from January 2011 through January 2013. The results provide a strong interdependence between credit spreads and the explanatory factors related to the conditions of interest rates, the state of the stock market, the bond market liquidity and the exchange risk. The empirical findings support the use of asymmetric GARCH models. The AGARCH and GJR models outperform the traditional GARCH in credit spreads modelling. We show, also, that the leptokurtic Student-t assumption is better than the Gaussian distribution and improves the quality of the estimates, whatever the rating or maturity.

Keywords: corporate bonds, default risk, credit spreads, asymmetric garch models, student-t distribution

Procedia PDF Downloads 439

Authors: Mesut BALIBEY, Serpil TÜRKYILMAZ

Abstract:

A popular topic in the econometrics and time series area is the cointegrating relationships among the components of a nonstationary time series. Engle and Granger’s least squares method and Johansen’s conditional maximum likelihood method are the most widely-used methods to determine the relationships among variables. Furthermore, a method proposed to test a unit root based on the periodogram ordinates has certain advantages over conventional tests. Periodograms can be calculated without any model specification and the exact distribution under the assumption of a unit root is obtained. For higher order processes the distribution remains the same asymptotically. In this study, in order to indicate advantages over conventional test of periodograms, we are going to examine a possible relationship between tourism and economic growth during the period 1999:01-2010:12 for Turkey by using periodogram method, Johansen’s conditional maximum likelihood method, Engle and Granger’s ordinary least square method.

Keywords: cointegration, economic growth, periodogram ordinate, tourism

Procedia PDF Downloads 242

Authors: Ebrahim Mansoori, Datin Joriah Muhammad

Abstract:

Recent studies in finance have focused on the effect of external variables on working capital management. This study investigates the effect of corruption indexes on firms' working capital management. A large data set that covers data from 2005 to 2013 from five ASEAN countries, namely, Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand, and the Philippines, was selected to investigate how the level of corruption in these countries affect working capital management. The results of panel data analysis include fixed effect estimations showed that a high level of countries' corruption indexes encourages managers to shorten the CCC length. Meanwhile, the managers reduce the level of investment in cash and cash equivalents when the levels of corruption indexes increase. Therefore, increasing the level of countries' corruption indexes encourages managers to select conservative working capital strategies by reducing the level of NLB.

Keywords: ASEAN, corruption indexes, panel data analysis, working capital management

Procedia PDF Downloads 406

Authors: Stephen Coandadiputra, Chrestella Carissa

Abstract:

Technology is created to simplify human’s life. One of current technology which being called as the second wave internet generation is the internet of things. Internet of things lets thousands of devices connected each other. In today's marketing world, IOT has brought customer into the next level which helping the customer to shorten every transaction they are conducting from traditional approach to sophisticated approach. However, the implementation of technology has always obstacles. The objective of this paper is to explore the determinants of customer to accepts such technology like the internet of things within their transaction. According to TAM (Technology Acceptance Model), researcher constructs the acceptance of internet of things based on perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use and trust and social factor and the two customer characteristics: perceived enjoyment and perceived behavioral control. This research uses exploratory research design which being facilitated by spreading questionnaire to 145 T-cash users in Jakarta and in its suburban region. At least, 190 samples were observed and questioned accordingly. All the collected data will be analyzed using Lisrel.

Keywords: behavioral intention to use, internet of things, near field communication, technology acceptance model

Procedia PDF Downloads 300

Authors: Svetlana K. Eden

Abstract:

Movies and TV shows have long become part of modern culture. We all have our preferred genre, story, actors, and actresses. However, can we objectively discern good acting from the bad? As laymen, we are probably not objective, but what about the Oscar academy members? Are their votes based on objective measures? Oscar academy members are probably also biased due to many factors, including their professional affiliations or advertisement exposure. Heavily advertised films bring more publicity to their cast and are likely to have bigger budgets. Because a bigger budget may also help earn a Best Picture (BP) nomination, we hypothesize that best actor/actress (BA) nominees from BP-nominated movies would have higher chances of winning the award than those BA nominees from non-BP-nominated films. To test this hypothesis, three Bayesian hierarchical models are proposed, and their performance is evaluated. The results from all three models largely support our hypothesis. Depending on the proportion of BP nominations among BA nominees, the odds ratios (estimated over expected) of winning the BA award conditional on BP nomination vary from 2.8 [0.8-7.0] to 4.3 [2.0, 15.8] for actors and from 1.5 [0.0, 12.2] to 5.4 [2.7, 14.2] for actresses.

Keywords: Oscar, best picture, best actor/actress, bias

Procedia PDF Downloads 196

Authors: P. Saravanakumar, N. Raja, M. Rameshkumar, D. Mohankumar, R. Sateeshkumar, B. Maheshwari

Abstract:

This research work is designed using Microsoft VB. Net as front end and MySQL as back end. The project deals with secure the user transaction in the ATM system. This application contains the option for sending the failed transaction details to the particular customer by using the SMS. When the customer withdraws the amount from the Bank ATM system, sometimes the amount will not be dispatched but the amount will be debited to the particular account. This application is used to avoid this type of problems in the ATM system. In this proposed system using IR technique to detect the dispatched amount. IR Transmitter and IR Receiver are placed in the path of cash dispatch. It is connected each other through the IR signal. When the customers withdraw the amount in the ATM system then the amount will be dispatched or not is monitored by IR Receiver. If the amount will be dispatched then the signal will be interrupted between the IR Receiver and the IR Transmitter. At that time, the monitoring system will be reduced their particular withdraw amount on their account. If the cash will not be dispatched, the signal will not be interrupted, at that time the particular withdraw amount will not be reduced their account. If the transaction completed successfully, the transaction details such as withdraw amount and current balance can be sent to the customer via the SMS. If the transaction fails, the transaction failed message can be send to the customer.

Keywords: ATM system, monitoring system, IR Transmitter, IR Receiver

Procedia PDF Downloads 269

Authors: Azizah Hashim, Rohana Ngah

Abstract:

Transformation of Economic Development is aimed to transform Malaysia to become a high-income developed nation with a knowledge-based economy by 2020. To achieve this national agenda, the country needs to further strengthen its economic development, growth and well-being. Therefore, this study aspires to examine the relationship between market orientation, human resource management and adoption of information communication technology and SMEs performance and cash management as a mediator. This study will employ quantitative approaches. Questionnaires will be distributed to managers and owners in service sectors. The data collected will be analyzed using SPSS and Structural Equation Modelling. Resource Based Theory (RBT) adopts as an integral part of management literature that explains the performance of organizations through building resources and implement of their strategies.

Keywords: small medium enterprises (SMEs), market orientation, human resource management, adoption of information communication technology

Procedia PDF Downloads 253

Authors: Imen Dhaou

Abstract:

This study examines conditional Value at Risk by applying the GJR-EVT-Copula model, and finds the optimal portfolio for eight Dow Jones Islamic-conventional pairs. Our methodology consists of modeling the data by a bivariate GJR-GARCH model in which we extract the filtered residuals and then apply the Peak over threshold model (POT) to fit the residual tails in order to model marginal distributions. After that, we use pair-copula to find the optimal portfolio risk dependence structure. Finally, with Monte Carlo simulations, we estimate the Value at Risk (VaR) and the conditional Value at Risk (CVaR). The empirical results show the VaR and CVaR values for an equally weighted portfolio of Dow Jones Islamic-conventional pairs. In sum, we found that the optimal investment focuses on Islamic-conventional US Market index pairs because of high investment proportion; however, all other index pairs have low investment proportion. These results deliver some real repercussions for portfolio managers and policymakers concerning to optimal asset allocations, portfolio risk management and the diversification advantages of these markets.

Keywords: CVaR, Dow Jones Islamic index, GJR-GARCH-EVT-pair copula, portfolio optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 221

Authors: Tahar Tayachi, Ahlam Alrehaili

Abstract:

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between the corporate board characteristics and the dividend policy among firms on the Saudi Stock Exchange. Design/Methodology/Approach: This paper uses a sample of 103 nonfinancial firms over a time period of 4 years from 2015 to 2018. To investigate how corporate governance mechanisms such as board independence, the board size, frequency of meetings, and free cash flow impact dividends, the study uses Logit and Tobit models. Findings: This paper finds that board size, board independence, and frequency of board meetings have no influence on a firm’s decision to pay dividends, while board size has a significantly positive impact on the levels of cash dividends paid to investors. This study also finds that the level of free cash flows has a positively significant influence on both the decision to pay dividends and the magnitude of dividend payouts. Research Limitations/Implications: This paper attempts to study the effectiveness of dividend policy among some firms on the Saudi Stock Exchange. Practical Implications: The findings reveal that board characteristics, which represent one of the crucial mechanisms of corporate governance, were found to be complementary to corporate laws and regulations imposed on the Saudi market in 2015. The findings also imply that capital market authorities should revise their corporate regulations and ensure that protection laws are adequate and strong enough to protect the interests of all shareholders. Originality/Value: This paper is among the few studies focusing on dividend policy in Saudi Arabia. Finally, these findings suggest that the improvements in corporate laws in Saudi Arabia led to such an outcome, and it has become prevalent in dividend policy decisions and behaviors of Saudi firms.

Keywords: agency theory, Tobit, corporate governance, dividend payout, Logit

Procedia PDF Downloads 168

Authors: Abderrazek Ben Maatoug, Ibrahim Fatnassi, Wassim Ben Ayed

Abstract:

In this paper we investigate the issue of market risk quantification for Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Islamic market equity. We use Value-at-Risk (VaR) as a measure of potential risk in Islamic stock market, for long and short position, based on Riskmetrics model and the conditional parametric ARCH class model volatility with normal, student and skewed student distribution. The sample consist of daily data for the 2006-2014 of 11 Islamic stock markets indices. We conduct Kupiec and Engle and Manganelli tests to evaluate the performance for each model. The main finding of our empirical results show that (i) the superior performance of VaR models based on the Student and skewed Student distribution, for the significance level of α=1% , for all Islamic stock market indices, and for both long and short trading positions (ii) Risk Metrics model, and VaR model based on conditional volatility with normal distribution provides the best accurate VaR estimations for both long and short trading positions for a significance level of α=5%.

Keywords: value-at-risk, risk management, islamic finance, GARCH models

Procedia PDF Downloads 557

Authors: Eliane Abdo

Abstract:

Small and medium sized firms “SMEs” play essential role in the countries’ economic development mainly in terms of production, employment and equitable distribution of income. For innovative SMEs, the investment in the human capital and in research and development are crucial to survive in a competitive environment. In this paper we perform a literature review to underline the financing difficulties and constraints which innovative SMEs face while investing in intangible assets: not only when defining amount of the investments but also while choosing its financing methods. Literature review revealed that in order to finance their intangible assets, SMEs rely in first on their internal financing: the availability of internal cash flows can then determine their investment’s decision. Moreover SMEs face difficulties to finance their intangibles by financial debts due to the uncertainty of future cash flow and the absence of physical guarantees; they will therefore go for the issuance of new shares as a second choice, since innovative companies have high opportunity of growth that attract new shareholders.

Keywords: small and medium sized firms, capital structure, intangible investment, financial constraints

Procedia PDF Downloads 89

Authors: Husnain Mushtaq, Mary Anjum, Muhammad Aleem

Abstract:

The main objective of this paper is used to develop a high security in Automatic Teller Machine (ATM). In these system bankers will collect the mobile numbers from the customers and then provide a code on their mobile number. In most country existing ATM machine use the magnetic card reader. The customer is identifying by inserting an ATM card with magnetic card that hold unique information such as card number and some security limitations. By entering a personal identification number, first the customer is authenticated then will access bank account in order to make cash withdraw or other services provided by the bank. Cases of card fraud are another problem once the user’s bank card is missing and the password is stolen, or simply steal a customer’s card & PIN the criminal will draw all cash in very short time, which will being great financial losses in customer, this type of fraud has increase worldwide. So to resolve this problem we are going to provide the solution using “Mobile SMS code” and ATM “PIN code” in order to improve the verify the security of customers using ATM system and confidence in the banking area.

Keywords: PIN, inquiry, biometric, magnetic strip, iris recognition, face recognition

Procedia PDF Downloads 335

Authors: Niya Chen, Jennifer Chan

Abstract:

In the financial market, risk management helps to minimize potential loss and maximize profit. There are two ways to assess risks; the first way is to calculate the risk directly based on the volatility. The most common risk measurements are Value at Risk (VaR), sharp ratio, and beta. Alternatively, we could look at the quantile of the return to assess the risk. Popular return models such as GARCH and stochastic volatility (SV) focus on modeling the mean of the return distribution via capturing the volatility dynamics; however, the quantile/expectile method will give us an idea of the distribution with the extreme return value. It will allow us to forecast VaR using return which is direct information. The advantage of using these non-parametric methods is that it is not bounded by the distribution assumptions from the parametric method. But the difference between them is that expectile uses a second-order loss function while quantile regression uses a first-order loss function. We consider several quantile functions, different volatility measures, and estimates from some volatility models. To estimate the expectile of the model, we use Realized Conditional Autoregressive Expectile (CARE) model with the bayesian method to achieve this. We would like to see if our proposed models outperform existing models in cryptocurrency, and we will test it by using Bitcoin mainly as well as Ethereum.

Keywords: expectile, CARE Model, CARR Model, quantile, cryptocurrency, Value at Risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 82

Authors: Mahlogonolo Stephina Thobane

Abstract:

The aim of the study upon which this article is based was “to evaluate the possibility of using criminal career research in the development and evaluation of crime control strategies, particularly for armed robberies.” The research employed a concurrent triangulation mixed-method approach where quantitative and qualitative data were collected concurrently but analysed separately through the use of SPSS and Atlas.ti respectively. Forty offenders incarcerated at six correctional centres around the Gauteng province of South Africa for robbery with aggravating circumstances were interviewed as research participants. Since the researcher had no prior information on the total number of the population, purposive sampling (i.e. snowballing) was executed to draw the sample. This research found that offenders launched their criminal career at a very young age of, 11 years, by committing petty crimes such as theft and then, as they grew older, they progressed to more serious and violent crimes such as vehicle hijacking and Cash-in-Transit (CIT) robberies. Thus, it is pivotal that those responsible for developing crime prevention policies focus on interrupting the root causes of crime in the early stages of one’s life in order to prevent continuation of delinquent behaviour from childhood to adolescence and adulthood.

Keywords: criminal career, robbery with aggravating circumstances, cash-in-transit robbery, criminal career research

Procedia PDF Downloads 418

Authors: Lina Martinez, Juan David Rivera Acevedo, Isabella Franco

Abstract:

The informal economy plays a significant role in the job market in Colombia. Cali, the third largest city in the country, is characterized by a high percentage of socially and economically vulnerable population groups who take part in the urban informal economy, with street vending as their primary source of income. This paper studies the socio-economic dimensions of street vendors in Cali. In particular, it examines why they are unable to capitalize on their comparatively high earnings and are not likely to escape poverty even though they usually profit from government welfare and tax evasion due to the non-regulated character of informality. The analysis of an observational study and two surveys with 637 and 300 participants show that street vending is a cash-based day-to-day activity. Since most of the street vendors do not have access to formal banking systems, they depend on payday loans with incomparably high interest rates which absorb a large share of their income and maintain a continuous indebtedness. This is one of the main reasons why they are unable to improve their living conditions. However, the daily cash flow masks the high opportunity cost of loans and long-term deficits.

Keywords: Colombia, informal economy, payday loans, street vendors

Procedia PDF Downloads 290

Authors: Sarkar Humayun Kabir

Abstract:

This paper aims to investigate whether ethical investment instruments could contribute to stability in financial markets. In order to address the main issue, the study investigates the stability of return in seven conventional and Islamic equity markets of Asia, Europe and North America and in five major commodity markets starting from 1996 to June 2012. In addition, the study examines the unconditional correlation between returns of the assets under review to investigate portfolio diversification benefits of investors. Applying relevant methods, the study finds that investors may enjoy sustainable returns from their portfolios by investing in ethical financial instruments such as Islamic equities. In addition, it should be noted that most of the commodities, gold in particular, are either low or negatively correlated with equity returns. These results suggest that investors would be better off by investing in portfolios combining Islamic equities and commodities in general. The sustainable returns of ethical investments has important implications for the investors and markets since these investments can provide stable returns while the investors can avoid production of goods and services which believes to be harmful for human and the society as a whole.

Keywords: financial sustainability, ethical investment instruments, islamic equity, dynamic conditional correlation, conditional volatility

Procedia PDF Downloads 276

Authors: Ibrahim Yakubu Seini, Oluwole Daniel Makinde

Abstract:

MHD chemically reacting viscous fluid flow towards a vertical surface with slip and convective boundary conditions has been conducted. The temperature and the chemical species concentration of the surface and the velocity of the external flow are assumed to vary linearly with the distance from the vertical surface. The governing differential equations are modeled and transformed into systems of ordinary differential equations, which are then solved numerically by a shooting method. The effects of various parameters on the heat and mass transfer characteristics are discussed. Graphical results are presented for the velocity, temperature, and concentration profiles whilst the skin-friction coefficient and the rate of heat and mass transfers near the surface are presented in tables and discussed. The results revealed that increasing the strength of the magnetic field increases the skin-friction coefficient and the rate of heat and mass transfers toward the surface. The velocity profiles are increased towards the surface due to the presence of the Lorenz force, which attracts the fluid particles near the surface. The rate of chemical reaction is seen to decrease the concentration boundary layer near the surface due to the destructive chemical reaction occurring near the surface.

Keywords: boundary layer, surface slip, MHD flow, chemical reaction, heat transfer, mass transfer

Procedia PDF Downloads 511

Authors: Rancy Chepchirchir Kosgey, John Olukuru

Abstract:

This study examines the impact of introduction of futures trading on the spot price volatility in the commodity market. The paper considers the United States of America, South Africa and Ethiopian economies. Three commodities i.e. coffee, maize and wheat from New York Merchantile Exchange, South African Futures Exchange and Ethiopian Commodity Exchange are analyzed. ARCH LM test is used to check for heteroskedasticity and GARCH and EGARCH are used to check for the behavior of volatility between the pre- and post-futures periods. For all the three economies, the results indicate presence of the ARCH effect in the log returns. For conditional and unconditional variances; spot price volatility for coffee has decreased after futures trading in all the economies and the EGARCH has also shown reduction in persistence of volatility in the post-futures period in the three economies; while that of maize has reduced for the Ethiopian economy while there has been an increase in both the US and South African economies. For wheat, the conditional variance has been found to rise in the post-futures period in all the three economies.

Keywords: derivatives, futures exchange, agricultural commodities, spot price volatility

Procedia PDF Downloads 408

Authors: Frank C. Amaechi, Adeyinka A. Aderinto, Usman A. Ojedokun, Oludayo Tade

Abstract:

Illicit trading in new naira notes has become a common practice in most communities in Nigeria despite the Central Bank Act’s in 2007 proscription of all forms of naira abuse. This study investigated the socio-economic factors sustaining illicit trading in new naira notes in Ibadan metropolis. The study was exploratory and cross-sectional in design. Neutralization theory was adopted as theoretical framework. Data were generated through the combination of in-depth interview and key informant interview methods. The purposive sampling technique was utilised to select five illicit traders of new naira notes, 32 patrons of the trade and six bank officials. Findings revealed that illicit trading in Nigeria’s national currency is flourishing because of the frequent demand for new naira notes that are not readily available in Nigerian banks. Also, the norm of cash spraying at social events is sustaining the illicit markets for new naira notes in Ibadan metropolis. In addition, a chain of network, comprising three principal actors, is behind the illegal business. A strict enforcement of the law banning cash spraying is advocated as a means of arresting this phenomenon.

Keywords: illicit trading, naira notes, national currency, Nigeria

Procedia PDF Downloads 270

Authors: Hajer Habib, Ghazi Boulila

Abstract:

The objective of this paper is to present our contribution to the theoretical literature through a simple theoretical model dealing with the effect of transferring funds on the labor market of the countries of origin and on the other hand to test this relationship empirically in the case of Tunisia. The methodology used consists of estimating a panel of the nine main destinations of the Tunisian diaspora in Europe between 1994 and 2014 in order to better value the net effect of these migratory financial flows on unemployment through population growth. The empirical results show that the main factors explaining the decision to emigrate are the economic factors related mainly to the income differential, the demographic factors related to the differential age structure of the origin and host populations, and the cultural factors linked basically to the mastery of the language. Indeed, the stock of migrants is one of the main determinants of the transfer of migratory funds to Tunisia. But there are other variables that do not lack importance such as the economic conditions linked by the host countries. This shows that Tunisian migrants react more to economic conditions in European countries than in Tunisia. The economic situation of European countries dominates the numbers of emigrants as an explanatory factor for the amount of transfers from Tunisian emigrants to their country of origin. Similarly, it is clear that there is an indirect effect of transfers on unemployment in Tunisia. This suggests that the demographic transition conditions the effects of transferring funds on the level of unemployment.

Keywords: demographic changes, international migration, labor market, remittances

Procedia PDF Downloads 123