Search results for: combined evaluation of concurrent risk events

Authors: Elham Sharifineyestani, Mohammad Farshchin

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Tropical cyclones are one of the most expensive and deadliest natural disasters. They cause heavy rainfall and serious flash flooding that result in billions of dollars of damage and considerable mortality each year in the United States. Prediction of the frequency of tropical cyclone-induced rainfall events can be helpful in emergency planning and flood risk management. In this study, we have developed a machine-learning model to predict the exceedance frequencies of tropical cyclone-induced rainfall events in the United States. Model results show a satisfactory agreement with available observations. To examine the effectiveness of our approach, we also have compared the result of our predictions with the exceedance frequencies predicted using a physics-based rainfall model by Feldmann.

Keywords: flash flooding, tropical cyclones, frequencies, machine learning, risk management

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Authors: Naci Büyükkaracığan, Hasan Uzun

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Flood is the event which damage to the surrounding lands, residential places, infrastructure and vibrant, because of the streams overflow events from its bed for several reasons. Flood is a natural formation which develops due to its region's climatic conditions, technical and topographical characteristics. However, factors causing floods with global warming caused by human activity are events such as uncontrolled urbanization. Floods in Turkey are natural disasters which cause huge economic losses after the earthquake. At the same time, the flood disaster is one of the most observed hydrometeorological disasters, compared to 30%, in Turkey. Every year, there are around 200 flood-flood disasters and the disaster as a result of financial losses of $ 100 million per year are reported to occur in public institutions. The amount allocated for carrying out investment-project activities for reducing and controlling of flood damage control are around US $ 30 million per year. The existence of a linear increase in the number of flood disasters is noteworthy due to various reasons in the last 50 years of observation. In this study, first of all, big events of the flood in Turkey and their reasons were examined. And then, the information about the work to be done in order to prevent flooding by government was given with examples. Meteorological early warning systems, flood risk maps and regulation of urban development studies are described for this purpose. As a result, recommendations regarding in the event of the occurrence of floods disaster management were issues raised.

Keywords: flood, disaster, disaster management, Türkiye

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Authors: Liane Marcia Freitas Silva, Fernando Augusto Silva Marins, Maria Silene Alexandre Leite

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The adoption of a network structure, like in the supply chains, favors the increase of dependence between companies and, by consequence, their vulnerability. Environment disasters, sociopolitical and economical events, and the dynamics of supply chains elevate the uncertainty of their operation, favoring the occurrence of events that can generate break up in the operations and other undesired consequences. Thus, supply chains are exposed to various risks that can influence the profitability of companies involved, and there are several previous studies that have proposed risk classification models in order to categorize the risks and to manage them. The objective of this paper is to analyze and discuss thirty of these risk classification models by means a theoretical survey. The research method adopted for analyzing and discussion includes three phases: The identification of the types of risks proposed in each one of the thirty models, the grouping of them considering equivalent concepts associated to their definitions, and, the analysis of these risks groups, evaluating their similarities and differences. After these analyses, it was possible to conclude that, in fact, there is more than thirty risks types identified in the literature of Supply Chains, but some of them are identical despite of be used distinct terms to characterize them, because different criteria for risk classification are adopted by researchers. In short, it is observed that some types of risks are identified as risk source for supply chains, such as, demand risk, environmental risk and safety risk. On the other hand, other types of risks are identified by the consequences that they can generate for the supply chains, such as, the reputation risk, the asset depreciation risk and the competitive risk. These results are consequence of the disagreements between researchers on risk classification, mainly about what is risk event and about what is the consequence of risk occurrence. An additional study is in developing in order to clarify how the risks can be generated, and which are the characteristics of the components in a Supply Chain that leads to occurrence of risk.

Keywords: sisks classification, survey, supply chain management, theoretical discussion

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Authors: Ahmed Abdallatif

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Background: Patients with malignant germ cell tumors have age distribution in two peaks, with the first one during infancy and the second after the onset of puberty. Gonadal germ cell tumors are the most common malignant ovarian tumor in females aged below twenty years. Sacrococcygeal and retroperitoneal abdominal tumors usually presents in a large size before the onset of symptoms. Methods: Patients with pediatric germ cell tumors presenting to Children’s Cancer Hospital Egypt and National Cancer Institute Egypt from January 2008 to June 2011 Patients underwent stratification according to risk into low, intermediate and high risk groups according to children oncology group classification. Objectives: Assessment of the clinicopathologic features of all cases of pediatric germ cell tumors and classification of malignant cases according to their stage, and the primary site to low, intermediate and high risk patients. Evaluation of surgical management in each group of patients focusing on surgical approach, the extent of surgical resection according to each site, ability to achieve complete surgical resection and perioperative complications. Finally, determination of the three years overall and disease-free survival in different groups and the relation to different prognostic factors including the extent of surgical resection. Results: Out of 131 cases surgically explored only 26 cases had re exploration with 8 cases explored for residual disease 9 cases for remote recurrence or metastatic disease and the other 9 cases for other complications. Patients with low risk kept under follow up after surgery, out of those of low risk group (48 patients) only 8 patients (16.5%) shifted to intermediate risk. There were 20 patients (14.6%) diagnosed as intermediate risk received 3 cycles of compressed (Cisplatin, Etoposide and Bleomycin) and all high risk group patients 69patients (50.4%) received chemotherapy. Stage of disease was strongly and significantly related to overall survival with a poorer survival in late stages (stage IV) as compared to earlier stages. Conclusion: Overall survival rate at 3 three years was (76.7% ± 5.4, 3) years EFS was (77.8 % ±4.0), however 3 years DFS was much better (89.8 ± 3.4) in whole study group with ovarian tumors had significantly higher Overall survival (90% ± 5.1). Event Free Survival analysis showed that Male gender was 3 times likely to have bad events than females. Patients who underwent incomplete resection were 4 times more than patients with complete resection to have bad events. Disease free survival analysis showed that Patients who underwent incomplete surgery were 18.8 times liable for recurrence compared to those who underwent complete surgery, and patients who were exposed to re-excision were 21 times more prone to recurrence compared to other patients.

Keywords: extragonadal, germ cell tumors, gonadal, pediatric

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Authors: Ezeabasili Chibuike Patrick

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The complex situation of construction industries in Nigeria and the risk of failures involved includes cost overrun, time overrun, Corruption, Government influence, Subcontractor challenges, Political influence and Instability, Cultural differences, Human resources deficiencies, cash flow Challenges, foreign exchange issues, inadequate design, Safety, low productivity, late payment, Quality control issues, project management issues, Environmental issues, Force majeure Competition amongst others has made the industry prone to risk and failures. Good project management remains effective in improving decision-making, which minimizes these risk events. This study was done to address these project risks and good decision-making to avert them. A mixed-method approach to research was used to do this study. Data collected by questionnaires and interviews on thirty-two (32) construction professionals was used in analyses to aid the knowledge and management of risks that were identified. The study revealed that there is no good risk management expertise in Nigeria. Also, that the economic/political situation and the recent COVID-19 pandemic has added to the risk and poor management strategies. The contingency theory and cost has therefore surfaced to be the most strategic management method used to reduce these risk issues and they seem to be very effective.

Keywords: strategies, risk management, contingency theory, Nigeria

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Authors: Yang Wei, Xueyan Wang, Hui Zou

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Objective: Investigation the prevalence of menopausal symptoms in patients with allergic symptoms, evaluation of the effect of sex hormones combined with anti-allergic therapy in these patients. Method: Age of 45-65 years old women with allergic symptoms at the same time in gynecological-endocrinology clinic in our hospital were selected from Feb 1 to May 31, 2010, randomly. The patients were given oral estradiol valerate plus progestin pills combined with anti-allergy treatment and then evaluated twice a week and one month later. Evaluation criterion: Menopause Rating Scale (MRS) and the degree of clinical symptoms were used to evaluate menopause and allergy separately. Results: 1) There were 195 cases of patients with menopausal symptoms at the age. Their MRS were all over 15. 2) Among them 45 patients were with allergic symptom accounted for 23% which were diagnosed by allergic department. 3) Evaluated after one week: the menopausal symptoms were improved and MRS were less than or equal to 5 in all these patients; the skin symptom of allergic symptoms vanished completely. 4) Evaluated after one month: Menopause symptoms were improved steadily; other clinical symptoms of allergy were also improved or without recurrence. Conclusion: The incidence rate of menopausal women with clinical symptoms of allergic diseases is high and it needs attention. The effect of sex hormones combined with anti-allergic therapy is obvious.

Keywords: menopausal, allergy, sex hormone, anti-allergy treatment

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Authors: Mathias Linden, André Schneider, Harald F. O. von Korflesch

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The risk of train accidents is an ongoing concern for railway organizations, governments, insurance companies and other depended sectors. Safety technologies are installed to reduce and to prevent potential damages of train accidents. Since the budgetary for the safety of railway organizations is limited, it is necessary not only to achieve a high availability and high safety standard but also to be cost effective. Therefore, an economic assessment of safety technologies is fundamental to create an accurate risk analysis. In order to conduct an economical assessment of a railway safety technology and a quantification of the costs of the accident causes, the Global Railway Accident Database & Evaluation (GRADE) has been developed. The aim of this paper is to describe the structure of this accident database and to show how it can be used for risk analyses. A number of risk analysis methods, such as the probabilistic safety assessment method (PSA), was used to demonstrate this accident database’s different possibilities of risk analysis. In conclusion, it can be noted that these analyses would not be as accurate without GRADE. The information gathered in the accident database was not available in this way before. Our findings are relevant for railway operators, safety technology suppliers, assurances, governments and other concerned railway organizations.

Keywords: accident causes, accident costs, accident database, global railway accident database & evaluation, GRADE, probabilistic safety assessment, PSA, railway accidents, risk analysis

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Authors: Philip Feig, Klaus Gschwendtner, Julian Schatz, Frank Diermeyer

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Projects of accident research analysis are mostly focused on accidents involving personal damage. Property damage only has a high frequency of occurrence combined with high economic impact. This paper describes main influencing parameters for the extent of damage and presents a repair cost model. For a prospective evaluation method of the monetary effect of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS), it is necessary to be aware of and quantify all influencing parameters. Furthermore, this method allows the evaluation of vehicle concepts in combination with an ADAS at an early point in time of the product development process. In combination with a property damage database and the introduced repair cost model relevant test scenarios for specific vehicle configurations and their individual property damage risk may be determined. Currently, equipment rates of ADAS are low and a purchase incentive for customers would be beneficial. The next ADAS generation will prevent property damage to a large extent or at least reduce damage severity. Both effects may be a purchasing incentive for the customer and furthermore contribute to increased traffic safety.

Keywords: accident research, accident scenarios, ADAS, effectiveness, property damage analysis

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Authors: Mahalakshmi Vivekanandan S.

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As per the recent changes happening in the global policies, climate-related changes and the impact it causes across every sector are viewed as green swan events – in essence, climate-related changes can often happen and lead to risk and a lot of uncertainty, but needs to be mitigated instead of considering them as black swan events. This brings about a question on how this risk can be computed so that the financial institutions can plan to mitigate it. Climate-related changes impact all risk types – credit risk, market risk, operational risk, liquidity risk, reputational risk and other risk types. And the models required to compute this has to consider the different industrial needs of the counterparty, as well as the factors that are contributing to this – be it in the form of different risk drivers, or the different transmission channels or the different approaches and the granular form of data availability. This brings out the suggestion that the climate-related changes, though it affects Pillar I risks, will be a Pillar II risk. This has to be modeled specifically based on the financial institution’s actual exposure to different industries instead of generalizing the risk charge. And this will have to be considered as the additional capital to be met by the financial institution in addition to their Pillar I risks, as well as the existing Pillar II risks. In this paper, the author presents a risk assessment framework to model and assess climate change risks - for both credit and market risks. This framework helps in assessing the different scenarios and how the different transition risks affect the risk associated with the different parties. This research paper delves into the topic of the increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases that in turn cause global warming. It then considers the various scenarios of having the different risk drivers impacting the Credit and market risk of an institution by understanding the transmission channels and also considering the transition risk. The paper then focuses on the industry that’s fast seeing a disruption: the automobile industry. The paper uses the framework to show how the climate changes and the change to the relevant policies have impacted the entire financial institution. Appropriate statistical models for forecasting, anomaly detection and scenario modeling are built to demonstrate how the framework can be used by the relevant agencies to understand their financial risks. The paper also focuses on the climate risk calculation for the Pillar II Capital calculations and how it will make sense for the bank to maintain this in addition to their regular Pillar I and Pillar II capital.

Keywords: capital calculation, climate risk, credit risk, pillar ii risk, scenario modeling

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Authors: Tadesse Melaku Abegaz, Akshaya Srikanth Bahagavathula, Abdulla Shehab Sheab, Asim Hassen

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Objectives: Non-adherence and discontinuation of anticoagulant therapy lead to increased ischemic stroke risk and contributes to suboptimal outcomes of the anticoagulant treatment. This systematic review and meta-analysis were aimed to investigate the adherence to NOACs and adverse events in patients with AF. Methods: Original research articles conducted on patients with AF and using any NOACs (dabigatran, rivoraxaban and apixaban) reporting adherence for at least 35 days were included. Scientific databases including PubMed, Web of Science, and Google Scholar were searched using MeSH keywords to obtaining literature researched between 2008 to till June, 2016. Study characteristics, patient’s sociodemographic and clinical characteristics, medication adherence levels and bleeding events reported were recorded. Results: The overall sample size of the six studies is 1,640,157, with CHADS2 scores < 2 in 551 patients, CHADS2-VASc ≥ 2 in 62,232 AF patients. Three-forth [75.6% (95%CI= 66.5-84.8), p < 0.001] are adherent to NOACs. However, a higher rate [72.7% (62.5-82.9), p < 0.001] of adherence was observed with Dabigatran than Apixaban [59.9% (3.2-123.1), p=0.063] and Rivaroxaban [59.3% (38.7-80.0), p<0.001]. Sub-group analysis revealed that nearly 57% of the AF patients on NOACs have CHADS2 scores < 2 and 20% of these patients were non-adherent to NOACs. Overall bleeding events rate associated with NOACs non-adherent AF patients was found to be 7.5% (0.2-14.8), p=0.045. However, nearly 11.2% of AF patients experienced bleeding events were non-adherent to NOAC medications. A higher proportion of bleeding events were noticed with Dabigatran (14.7%). Conclusions: Adherence rates, while uniformly suboptimal, nevertheless varied considerably, lowest at 59.3% for rivaroxaban and 59.9% for apixaban, followed by dabigatran (75.6%). Overall bleeding events associated with NOACs rates were 7.5%. However, lower adherence to NOACs was associated with worse outcomes among patients with greater stroke risk.

Keywords: atrial fibrillation, bleeding events, meta-analysis, novel oral anticoagulants

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Authors: Domingos Viegas, Miguel Almeida, Carmen Rocha, Ilda Novo, Yolanda Luna

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Forest fires along the more than 1200km of the Spanish-Portuguese border are more and more frequent, currently achieving around 2000 fire events per year. Some of these events develop to large international wildfire requiring concerted operations based on shared information between the two countries. The fire event of Valencia de Alcantara (2003) causing several fatalities and more than 13000ha burnt, is a reference example of these international events. Currently, Portugal and Spain have a specific cross-border cooperation protocol on wildfires response for a strip of about 30km (15 km for each side). It is recognized by public authorities the successfulness of this collaboration however it is also assumed that this cooperation should include more functionalities such as the development of a common risk information system for transboundary fire events. Since Portuguese and Spanish authorities use different approaches to determine the fire risk indexes inputs and different methodologies to assess the fire risk, sometimes the conjoint firefighting operations are jeopardized since the information is not harmonized and the understanding of the situation by the civil protection agents from both countries is not unique. Thus, a methodology aiming the harmonization of the fire risk calculation and perception by Portuguese and Spanish Civil protection authorities is hereby presented. The final results are presented as well. The fire risk index used in this work is the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), which is based on meteorological data. The FWI is limited on its application as it does not take into account other important factors with great effect on the fire appearance and development. The combination of these factors is very complex since, besides the meteorology, it addresses several parameters of different topics, namely: sociology, topography, vegetation and soil cover. Therefore, the meaning of FWI values is different from region to region, according the specific characteristics of each region. In this work, a methodology for FWI calibration based on the number of fire occurrences and on the burnt area in the transboundary regions of Portugal and Spain, in order to assess the fire risk based on calibrated FWI values, is proposed. As previously mentioned, the cooperative firefighting operations require a common perception of the information shared. Therefore, a common classification of the fire risk for the fire events occurred in the transboundary strip is proposed with the objective of harmonizing this type of information. This work is integrated in the ECHO project SpitFire - Spanish-Portuguese Meteorological Information System for Transboundary Operations in Forest Fires, which aims the development of a web platform for the sharing of information and supporting decision tools to be used in international fire events involving Portugal and Spain.

Keywords: data harmonization, FWI, international collaboration, transboundary wildfires

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Authors: Jolanta Tamošaitienė

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The article focuses on a developed comprehensive model to be used in an agile environment for the risk assessment and selection based on multi-attribute methods. The model is based on a multi-attribute evaluation of risk in construction, and the determination of their optimality criterion values are calculated using complex Multiple Criteria Decision-Making methods. The model may be further applied to risk assessment in an agile construction environment. The attributes of risk in a construction project are selected by applying the risk assessment condition to the construction sector, and the construction process efficiency in the construction industry accounts for the agile environment. The paper presents the comprehensive risk assessment model in an agile construction environment. It provides a background and a description of the proposed model and the developed analysis of the comprehensive risk assessment model in an agile construction environment with the criteria.

Keywords: assessment, environment, agile, model, risk

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Authors: Puntarikorn Rungrattanakasin

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Objectives: To develop the trigger tool to warn about the risk of bleeding as an adverse event from warfarin drug usage during admission in Medical Wards of Chumphae Hospital. Methods: A retrospective study was performed by reviewing the medical records for the patients admitted between June 1st,2020- May 31st, 2021. ADEs were evaluated by Naranjo’s algorithm. The international normalized ratio (INR) and events of bleeding during admissions were collected. Statistical analyses, including Chi-square test and Reciever Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve for optimal INR threshold, were used for the study. Results: Among the 139 admissions, the INR range was found to vary between 0.86-14.91, there was a total of 15 bleeding events, out of which 9 were mild, and 6 were severe. The occurrence of bleeding started whenever the INR was greater than 2.5 and reached the statistical significance (p <0.05), which was in concordance with the ROC curve and yielded 100 % sensitivity and 60% specificity in the detection of a bleeding event. In this regard, the INR greater than 2.5 was considered to be an optimal threshold to alert promptly for bleeding tendency. Conclusions: The INR value of greater than 2.5 (>2.5) would be an appropriate trigger tool to warn of the risk of bleeding for patients taking warfarin in Chumphae Hospital.

Keywords: trigger tool, warfarin, risk of bleeding, medical wards

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Authors: B. Adini, M. Oren

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Introduction: Communicable diseases and pandemics pose a growing threat to the well-being of the global population. A vital component of protecting the public health is the creation and sustenance of a continuous preparedness for such hazards. A joint Israeli-German task force was deployed in order to develop an advanced tool for self-evaluation of emergency preparedness for variable types of biological threats. Methods: Based on a comprehensive literature review and interviews with leading content experts, an evaluation tool was developed based on quantitative and qualitative parameters and indicators. A modified Delphi process was used to achieve consensus among over 225 experts from both Germany and Israel concerning items to be included in the evaluation tool. Validity and applicability of the tool for medical institutions was examined in a series of simulation and field exercises. Results: Over 115 German and Israeli experts reviewed and examined the proposed parameters as part of the modified Delphi cycles. A consensus of over 75% of experts was attained for 183 out of 188 items. The relative importance of each parameter was rated as part of the Delphi process, in order to define its impact on the overall emergency preparedness. The parameters were integrated in computerized web-based software that enables to calculate scores of emergency preparedness for biological events. Conclusions: The parameters developed in the joint German-Israeli project serve as benchmarks that delineate actions to be implemented in order to create and maintain an ongoing preparedness for biological events. The computerized evaluation tool enables to continuously monitor the level of readiness and thus strengths and gaps can be identified and corrected appropriately. Adoption of such a tool is recommended as an integral component of quality assurance of public health and safety.

Keywords: biological events, emergency preparedness, bioterrorism, natural biological events

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Authors: Amy Halseth, Kevin Shan, Kye Gilder, John Buse

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The study assessed the effect of prolonged-release naltrexone 32 mg/bupropion 360 mg (NB) on cardiovascular (CV) events in overweight/obese participants at elevated CV risk. Participants must lose ≥ 2% body weight at 16 wks, without a sustained increase in blood pressure, to continue drug. The study was terminated early after second interim analysis with 50% of all CV events. Data on CV endpoints has been published. Current analyses focus on weight change. Intent-to-treat (ITT) population (placebo [PBO] N=4450, NB N=4455) was 54.5% female, 83.5% white, mean age 61 yrs, mean BMI 37.3 kg/m2; 85.2% had type 2 diabetes, 32.1% had CV disease, 17.4% had both. At 52 wks, ITT-LOCF analysis showed greater least squares mean percent change in weight (LSM%ΔBW) with NB (-3.1%; 95% CI -4.8, -1.4) vs PBO (-0.3%; 95% CI -1.9, 1.4). Both groups demonstrated greater weight loss while on-treatment (NB [-7.3%], PBO [-3.9%]). Odds ratios of 5% and 10% weight loss were 3.3 and 4.1 (ITT-LOCF), respectively, in NB over PBO. At 104 wks, on-treatment LSM%ΔBW was -6.3% with NB (n=1137) vs -3.5% with PBO (n=741). Major reasons for NB withdrawal were adverse events (AE, 29%) and patient decision (21%), with GI disorders being the most common. Weight loss with NB in this study, in an older population predominantly with diabetes and elevated CV risk, was somewhat lower than that observed in overweight/obese participants without diabetes and similar to participants with diabetes in Phase 3 studies.

Keywords: contrave, mysimba, obesity, pharmacotherapy, weight loss

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Authors: Saoussen Dhib, Chris M. Mannaerts, Zoubeida Bargaoui, Ben H. P. Maathuis, Petra Budde

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In this study, a new method to delineate rain areas in northern Tunisia is presented. The proposed approach is based on the blending of the geostationary Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) infrared channel (IR) with the low-earth orbiting passive Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI). To blend this two products, we need to apply two main steps. Firstly, we have to identify the rainy pixels. This step is achieved based on a classification using MSG channel IR 10.8 and the water vapor WV 0.62, applying a threshold on the temperature difference of less than 11 Kelvin which is an approximation of the clouds that have a high likelihood of precipitation. The second step consists on fitting the relation between IR cloud top temperature with the TMI rain rates. The correlation coefficient of these two variables has a negative tendency, meaning that with decreasing temperature there is an increase in rainfall intensity. The fitting equation will be applied for the whole day of MSG 15 minutes interval images which will be summed. To validate this combined product, daily extreme rainfall events occurred during the period 2007-2009 were selected, using a threshold criterion for large rainfall depth (> 50 mm/day) occurring at least at one rainfall station. Inverse distance interpolation method was applied to generate rainfall maps for the drier summer season (from May to October) and the wet winter season (from November to April). The evaluation results of the estimated rainfall combining MSG and TMI was very encouraging where all the events were detected rainy and the correlation coefficients were much better than previous evaluated products over the study area such as MSGMPE and PERSIANN products. The combined product showed a better performance during wet season. We notice also an overestimation of the maximal estimated rain for many events.

Keywords: combination, extreme, rainfall, TMI-MSG, Tunisia

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Authors: Nidhi Gaur, Padmaja Joshi, Vijay Jain, Rajeev Srivastava

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Web application architecture is important to achieve the desired performance for the application. Performance analysis studies are conducted to evaluate existing or planned systems. Web applications are used by hundreds of thousands of users simultaneously, which sometimes increases the risk of server failure in real time operations. We use Coloured Petri Net (CPN), a very powerful tool for modelling dynamic behaviour of a web application system. CPNs extend the vocabulary of ordinary Petri nets and add features that make them suitable for modelling large systems. The major focus of this work is on server side of web applications. The presented work focuses on modelling restructuring aspects, with major focus on concurrency and architecture, using CPN. It also focuses on bringing out the appropriate architecture for web and database servers given the number of concurrent users.

Keywords: coloured Petri Nets (CPNs), concurrent users, per- formance modelling, web application architecture

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Authors: Berrin Şentürk

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In this study, due to the recurrence of bovine tuberculosis, in the same areas, the risk factors for the disease were determined and evaluated at the local level. This study was carried out in 32 farms where the disease was detected in the district and center of Samsun province in 2014. Predetermined risk factors, such as farm, environmental and economic risks, were investigated with the survey method. It was predetermined that risks in the three groups are similar to the risk variables of the disease on the global scale. These risk factors that increase the susceptibility of the infection must be understood by the herd owners. The risk-based contagious disease management system approach should be applied for bovine tuberculosis by farmers, animal health professionals and public and private sector decision makers.

Keywords: bovine tuberculosis, disease management, control, outbreak, risk analysis

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Authors: Maria Debora Braga, Luigi Riso, Maria Grazia Zoia

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Risk-based approaches to asset allocation are portfolio construction methods that do not rely on the input of expected returns for the asset classes in the investment universe and only use risk information. They include the Minimum Variance Strategy (MV strategy), the traditional (volatility-based) Risk Parity Strategy (SRP strategy), the Most Diversified Portfolio Strategy (MDP strategy) and, for many, the Equally Weighted Strategy (EW strategy). All the mentioned approaches were based on portfolio volatility as a reference risk measure but in 2023, the Kurtosis-based Risk Parity strategy (KRP strategy) and the Minimum Kurtosis strategy (MK strategy) were introduced. Understandably, they used the fourth root of the portfolio-fourth moment as a proxy for portfolio kurtosis to work with a homogeneous function of degree one. This paper contributes mainly theoretically and methodologically to the framework of risk-based asset allocation approaches with two steps forward. First, a new and more flexible objective function considering a linear combination (with positive coefficients that sum to one) of portfolio volatility and portfolio kurtosis is used to alternatively serve a risk minimization goal or a homogeneous risk distribution goal. Hence, the new basic idea consists in extending the achievement of typical risk-based approaches’ goals to a combined risk measure. To give the rationale behind operating with such a risk measure, it is worth remembering that volatility and kurtosis are expressions of uncertainty, to be read as dispersion of returns around the mean and that both preserve adherence to a symmetric framework and consideration for the entire returns distribution as well, but also that they differ from each other in that the former captures the “normal” / “ordinary” dispersion of returns, while the latter is able to catch the huge dispersion. Therefore, the combined risk metric that uses two individual metrics focused on the same phenomena but differently sensitive to its intensity allows the asset manager to express, in the context of an objective function by varying the “relevance coefficient” associated with the individual metrics, alternatively, a wide set of plausible investment goals for the portfolio construction process while serving investors differently concerned with tail risk and traditional risk. Since this is the first study that also implements risk-based approaches using a combined risk measure, it becomes of fundamental importance to investigate the portfolio effects triggered by this innovation. The paper also offers a second contribution. Until the recent advent of the MK strategy and the KRP strategy, efforts to highlight interesting properties of risk-based approaches were inevitably directed towards the traditional MV strategy and SRP strategy. Previous literature established an increasing order in terms of portfolio volatility, starting from the MV strategy, through the SRP strategy, arriving at the EQ strategy and provided the mathematical proof for the “equalization effect” concerning marginal risks when the MV strategy is considered, and concerning risk contributions when the SRP strategy is considered. Regarding the validity of similar conclusions when referring to the MK strategy and KRP strategy, the development of a theoretical demonstration is still pending. This paper fills this gap.

Keywords: risk parity, portfolio kurtosis, risk diversification, asset allocation

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Authors: L. Bikulciene, E. Venskaityte, G. Jarusevicius

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Non-stationary and nonlinear signals generated by living complex systems defy traditional mechanistic approaches, which are based on homeostasis. Previous our studies have shown that the evaluation of the interactions of physiological signals by using special analysis methods is suitable for observation of physiological processes. It is demonstrated the possibility of using deep physiological model, based interpretation of the changes of the human body’s functional states combined with an application of the analytical method based on matrix theory for the physiological signals analysis, which was applied on high risk cardiac patients. It is shown that evaluation of cardiac signals interactions show peculiar for each individual functional changes at the onset of hemodynamic restoration procedure. Therefore we suggest that the alterations of functional state of the body, after patients overcome surgery can be complemented by the data received from the suggested approach of the evaluation of functional variables interactions.

Keywords: cardiac diseases, complex systems theory, ECG analysis, matrix analysis

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Authors: N. Mathew, A. Qureshi, D. C. Khakha, R. Sagar

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Adolescents in India, account for one-fifth of the total population and are a significant human resource. Present study was conducted to find out various life stressors of adolescents, coping strategies adopted by them and the impact of stress on adolescent mental health. A descriptive, cross sectional study conducted on schools in the south zone of Delhi, capital city of the country. Data was collected on 360 adolescents between the age group of 13-17 years on socio-demographic profile, Adolescent life event stress scale, brief cope and youth self report for ages 11-18. Adolescents had significantly higher stress on uncontrollable events such as family events, relocation events, accident events and ambiguous events as compared to controllable events such as sexual events, deviance events and autonomy events (p<0.01).Adolescent stress was significantly correlated with various demographic variables in the study. The most frequently used coping strategies by the adolescents were positive reframing, planning, active coping, and instrumental support. It has also been found that the stress has a significant impact on adolescent mental health in the form of either internalizing problems such as anxious, withdrawn and somatic problems or externalizing problems such as rule breaking and aggressive behaviors. Out of the total sample of 360 adolescents 150 were identified as having psycho-social morbidity, including 59 borderline cases and 91 high-risk cases Study pointed out the need for mental health screening among the adolescents and also indicated the need for mental health inputs in educational institutions.

Keywords: adolecents, stress, coping, mental health

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Authors: Abhijitsinh Gohil, Kaushal Wadhvaniya, Kuldipsinh Jadeja

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Road Safety is a multi-sectoral and multi-dimensional issue. An effective model can assess the risk associated with highway safety. A questionnaire survey is very essential to identify the events or activities which are causing unsafe condition for traffic on an urban highway. A questionnaire of standard questions including vehicular, human and infrastructure characteristics can be made. Responses from the age wise group of road users can be taken on field. Each question or an event holds a specific risk weightage, which contributes in creating an inappropriate and unsafe flow of traffic. The probability of occurrence of an event can be calculated from the data collected from the road users. Finally, the risk score can be calculated by considering the risk factor and the probability of occurrence of individual event and addition of all risk score for the individual event will give the total risk score of a particular road. Standards for risk score can be made and total risk score can be compared with the standards. Thus road can be categorized based on risk associated and traffic safety on it. With this model, one can assess the need for traffic safety improvement on a given road, and qualitative data can be analysed.

Keywords: probability of occurrence, questionnaire, risk factor, risk score

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Authors: Kaveh Azadeh, Saeid Fazelifar

Abstract:

The main purpose of the present study was to examine the effect of 12 weeks (3 days/week) concurrent training followed by 4 weeks detraining on insulin resistance in obese boys without dietary intervention. Methods: 24 obese children boys (body mass index> 28, age= 11- 13year old) voluntarily participated in the study. Biochemical factors, body composition, and functional physical fitness were assessed in three stages [baseline, after 12 week’s combined endurance and resistance training and 4 week’s detraining in the experimental group (n=12); baseline and after 12 weeks in control group (n=12)]. Results: Indepented - Sample T test revealed that in experimental group after 12weeks trainings the insulin resistance, and body fat mass were significantly declined, whereas endurance and strength of abdominal muscles significantly increased compared to control group (p<0/05). One-way ANOVA for three different periods showed that insulin resistance, body fat mass, strength of abdominal muscles after 12week training was significantly improved in the experimental group compared with the baseline. Following 4weeks detraining insulin resistance again significantly increased (p<0/05). After detraining disturbances of physiological adaptation in obese children have more rapid course in comparison with those anthropological and functional indices. Conclusion: Results showed that participation in the regular concurrent trainings provides a decrease of insulin resistance in obese children. It may serve as a strategy in treatment of obesity and management on insulin resistance, as well as to increase endurance and strength muscles in obese children. Adaptations resulting from regular exercises following detraining are reversible.

Keywords: endurance and resistance trainings, detraining, insulin resistance, obese children

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Authors: Chih-Hsiang Chang, Fang-Jyun Su

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This paper explores whether stock characteristics influence the herding formation among investors in the US equity market. To extend the research scope of the existing literature, this paper further examines the role that stock risk characteristics play in the US equity market, and the way they influence investors’ decision-making. First, empirical results show that whether general stocks or high-risk stocks, there are no herding behaviors among the investors in the US equity market during the whole research period or during four great events. Moreover, stock characteristics have great influence on investors’ trading decisions. Finally, there is a bidirectional lead-lag relationship of the herding formation between high-risk stocks and low-risk stocks, but the influence of high-risk stocks on the low-risk stocks is stronger than that of low-risk stocks on the high-risk stocks.

Keywords: stock characteristics, herding formation, investment decision, US equity market, lead-lag relationship

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Authors: Sanja Seljan, Ivan Dunđer

Abstract:

The paper presents combined automatic speech recognition (ASR) for English and machine translation (MT) for English and Croatian in the domain of business correspondence. The first part presents results of training the ASR commercial system on two English data sets, enriched by error analysis. The second part presents results of machine translation performed by online tool Google Translate for English and Croatian and Croatian-English language pairs. Human evaluation in terms of usability is conducted and internal consistency calculated by Cronbach's alpha coefficient, enriched by error analysis. Automatic evaluation is performed by WER (Word Error Rate) and PER (Position-independent word Error Rate) metrics, followed by investigation of Pearson’s correlation with human evaluation.

Keywords: automatic machine translation, integrated language technologies, quality evaluation, speech recognition

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Authors: Mohammed El-Arbi Khalfallah, Mohamed Lakhdar Hadji

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Managing and controlling risk is a topic research in the world of finance. Before a risky situation, the stakeholders need to do comparison according to the positions and actions, and financial institutions must take measures of a particular market risk and credit. In this work, we study a model of risk measure in finance: Value at Risk (VaR), which is a new tool for measuring an entity's exposure risk. We explain the concept of value at risk, your average, tail, and describe the three methods for computing: Parametric method, Historical method, and numerical method of Monte Carlo. Finally, we briefly describe advantages and disadvantages of the three methods for computing value at risk.

Keywords: average value at risk, conditional value at risk, tail value at risk, value at risk

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Authors: Malani Herath, Sohan Wijesekera, Jagath Munasingha

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The impact of recent floods become significant, and the extraordinary flood events cause considerable damage to lives, properties, environment and negatively affect the whole development of Colombo urban region. Even though the Colombo urban region experiences recurrent flood impacts, several spatial planning interventions have been taken from time to time since early 20th century. All past plans have adopted a traditional approach to flood management, using infrastructural measures to reduce the chance of flooding together with rigid planning regulations. The existing flood risk management practices do not operate to be acceptable by the local community particular the urban poor. Researchers have constantly reported the differences in estimations of flood risk, priorities, concerns of experts and the local community. Risk-based decision making in flood management is not only a matter of technical facts; it has a significant bearing on how flood risk is viewed by local community and individuals. Moreover, sustainable flood management is an integrated approach, which highlights joint actions of experts and community. This indicates the necessity of further societal discussion on the acceptable level of flood risk indicators to prioritize and identify the appropriate flood management measures in Colombo. The understanding and evaluation of flood risk by local people are important to integrate in the decision-making process. This research questioned about the gap between the acceptable level of flood risk to spatial planners and to the local communities in Colombo. A comprehensive literature review was conducted to prepare a framework to analyze the public perception in Colombo. This research work identifies the factors that affect the variation of flood risk and acceptable levels to both local community and planning authorities.

Keywords: Colombo basin, public perception, urban flood risk, multi-criteria analysis

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Authors: Pius Marthin, Nihal Ata Tutkun

Abstract:

Survival analysis has become one of the paramount procedures in the modeling of time-to-event data. When we encounter complex survival problems, the traditional approach remains limited in accounting for the complex correlational structure between the covariates and the outcome due to the strong assumptions that limit the inference and prediction ability of the resulting models. Several studies exist on the deep learning approach to survival modeling; moreover, the application for the case of complex survival problems still needs to be improved. In addition, the existing models need to address the data structure's complexity fully and are subject to noise and redundant information. In this study, we design a deep learning technique (CmpXRnnSurv_AE) that obliterates the limitations imposed by traditional approaches and addresses the above issues to jointly predict the risk-specific probabilities and survival function for recurrent events with competing risks. We introduce the component termed Risks Information Weights (RIW) as an attention mechanism to compute the weighted cumulative incidence function (WCIF) and an external auto-encoder (ExternalAE) as a feature selector to extract complex characteristics among the set of covariates responsible for the cause-specific events. We train our model using synthetic and real data sets and employ the appropriate metrics for complex survival models for evaluation. As benchmarks, we selected both traditional and machine learning models and our model demonstrates better performance across all datasets.

Keywords: cumulative incidence function (CIF), risk information weight (RIW), autoencoders (AE), survival analysis, recurrent events with competing risks, recurrent neural networks (RNN), long short-term memory (LSTM), self-attention, multilayers perceptrons (MLPs)

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Authors: Todor Bačkalić, Marinko Maslarić, Milosav Georgijević, Sanja Bojić

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Water transport could be the backbone of the future European combined transport system. The future transport policy in landlocked countries from the Danube Region has to be based on inland waterway transport (IWT). The development of the container transport on inland waterways depends directly on technical-exploitative characteristics of the network of inland waterways. Research of navigational abilities of inland waterways is the basic step in transport planning. The size of the vessel’s draught (T) is the limiting value in project tasks and it depends on the depth of the waterway. Navigation characteristics of rivers have to be determined as precise as possible, especially from the aspect of determination of the possible draught of vessels. This article outlines a rationale, why it is necessary to develop competence about infrastructure risk in water transport. Climate changes are evident and require special attention and global monitoring. Current risk assessment methods for Inland waterway transport just consider some dramatic events. We present a new method for the assessment of risk and vulnerability of inland waterway transport where river depth represents a crucial part. The analysis of water level changes in the lower Danube was done for two significant periods (1965-1979 and 1998-2012).

Keywords: container vessel, draught, probability, the Danube

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Authors: Prateep Wajeetongratana

Abstract:

The objective of this research is to examine the effects of internal audit innovation on firm performance effectiveness influences of financial report reliability, organizational process improvement, and risk management effectiveness. This paper drew upon the survey data collected from 400 employees survey conducted at Nonthaburi province, Thailand. The statistics utilized in this paper included percentage, mean, standard deviation, and regression analysis. The findings revealed that the majority of samples were between 31-40 years old, married, held an undergraduate degree, and had an average income between 10,000-15,000 baht. And also the results show that auditing integration has only influence on financial report reliability. Moreover, corporate risk evaluation has effect on firm performance by risk management effectiveness and control self-assessment has effect influence on firm performance by organizational process improvement and risk management effectiveness as well.

Keywords: corporate risk evaluation, firm performance effectiveness, internal audit innovation, marketing management

Procedia PDF Downloads 348