Search results for: bound estimation

Authors: Felix Baumann, Aleksandar Milutinovic, Dieter Roller

Abstract:

Up to this point business process management projects in general and business process modelling projects in particular could not rely on a practical and scientifically validated method to estimate cost and effort. Especially the model development phase is not covered by a cost estimation method or model. Further phases of business process modelling starting with implementation are covered by initial solutions which are discussed in the literature. This article proposes a method of filling this gap by deriving a cost estimation method from available methods in similar domains namely software development or software engineering. Software development is regarded as closely similar to process modelling as we show. After the proposition of this method different ideas for further analysis and validation of the method are proposed. We derive this method from COCOMO II and Function Point which are established methods of effort estimation in the domain of software development. For this we lay out similarities of the software development rocess and the process of process modelling which is a phase of the Business Process Management life-cycle.

Keywords: COCOMO II, busines process modeling, cost estimation method, BPM COCOMO

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Authors: Hassan J. Al Salman, Ahmed A. Al Ghafli

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In this study, we consider a nonlinear in time finite element approximation of a reaction diffusion system of lambda-omega type. We use a fixed-point theorem to prove existence of the approximations at each time level. Then, we derive some essential stability estimates and discuss the uniqueness of the approximations. In addition, we employ Nochetto mathematical framework to prove an optimal error bound in time for d= 1, 2 and 3 space dimensions. Finally, we present some numerical experiments to verify the obtained theoretical results.

Keywords: reaction diffusion system, finite element approximation, stability estimates, error bound

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Authors: Ekin Ozer

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Assessment of structural reliability is essential for efficient use of civil infrastructure which is subjected hazardous events. Dynamic analysis of finite element models is a commonly used tool to simulate structural behavior and estimate its performance accordingly. However, theoretical models purely based on preliminary assumptions and design drawings may deviate from the actual behavior of the structure. This study proposes up-to-date reliability estimation procedures which engages actual bridge vibration data modifying finite element models for finite element model updating and performing reliability estimation, accordingly. The proposed method utilizes vibration response measurements of bridge structures to identify modal parameters, then uses these parameters to calibrate finite element models which are originally based on design drawings. The proposed method does not only show that reliability estimation based on updated models differs from the original models, but also infer that non-updated models may overestimate the structural capacity.

Keywords: earthquake engineering, engineering vibrations, reliability estimation, structural health monitoring

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Authors: Hui Wu, Ye Li

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Applying the structural break estimation method proposed by Perron and Bai (1998) to the housing price growth rate of top 5 MSAs in the Texas area, this paper estimated the structural break date for the growth rate of housing prices index. As shown in the estimation results, the break dates for each region are quite different, which indicates the heterogeneity of the housing market in response to macroeconomic conditions.

Keywords: structural break, housing prices index, ADF test, linear model

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Authors: Hassan Al Salman, Ahmed Al Ghafli

Abstract:

In this study we consider a nonlinear in time finite element approximation of a reaction diffusion system of lambda-omega type. We use a fixed point theorem to prove existence of the approximations. Then, we derive some essential stability estimates and discuss the uniqueness of the approximations. Also, we prove an optimal error bound in time for d=1, 2 and 3 space dimensions. Finally, we present some numerical experiments to verify the theoretical results.

Keywords: reaction diffusion system, finite element approximation, fixed point theorem, an optimal error bound

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Authors: Rana Rimawi, Ayman Baklizi

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Skewed distributions are important models that are frequently used in applications. Generalized distributions form a class of skewed distributions and gain widespread use in applications because of their flexibility in data analysis. More specifically, the Generalized Logistic Distribution with its different types has received considerable attention recently. In this study, based on progressively type-II censored data, we will consider point estimation in type II Generalized Logistic Distribution (Type II GLD). We will develop several estimators for its unknown parameters, including maximum likelihood estimators (MLE), Bayes estimators and linear estimators (BLUE). The estimators will be compared using simulation based on the criteria of bias and Mean square error (MSE). An illustrative example of a real data set will be given.

Keywords: point estimation, type II generalized logistic distribution, progressive censoring, maximum likelihood estimation

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Authors: M. Vimal Raj, S. Sakthivel Murugan

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Underwater images degrade their quality due to atmospheric conditions. One of the major problems in an underwater image is motion blur caused by the imaging device or the movement of the object. In order to rectify that in post-imaging, parameters of the blurred image are to be estimated. So, the point spread function is estimated by the properties, using the spectrum of the image. To improve the estimation accuracy of the parameters, Optimized Polynomial Lagrange Interpolation (OPLI) method is implemented after the angle and length measurement of motion-blurred images. Initially, the data were collected from real-time environments in Chennai and processed. The proposed OPLI method shows better accuracy than the existing classical Cepstral, Hough, and Radon transform estimation methods for underwater images.

Keywords: image restoration, motion blur, parameter estimation, radon transform, underwater

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Authors: Giovanni Merola

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Sparse Principal Components Analysis aims to find principal components with few non-zero loadings. We derive such sparse solutions by adding a genuine sparsity requirement to the original Principal Components Analysis (PCA) objective function. This approach differs from others because it preserves PCA's original optimality: uncorrelatedness of the components and least squares approximation of the data. To identify the best subset of non-zero loadings we propose a branch-and-bound search and an iterative elimination algorithm. This last algorithm finds sparse solutions with large loadings and can be run without specifying the cardinality of the loadings and the number of components to compute in advance. We give thorough comparisons with the existing sparse PCA methods and several examples on real datasets.

Keywords: SPCA, uncorrelated components, branch-and-bound, backward elimination

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Authors: N. A. Mokhtar, A. G. Hussin, Y. Z. Zubairi

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This paper proposes a new simultaneous simple linear functional relationship model by assuming equal error variances. We derive the maximum likelihood estimate of the parameters in the simultaneous model and the covariance. We show by simulation study the small bias values of the parameters suggest the suitability of the estimation method. As an illustration, the proposed simultaneous model is applied to real data of the wind direction and wave direction measured by two different instruments.

Keywords: simultaneous linear functional relationship model, Fisher information matrix, parameter estimation, circular variables

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Authors: Mustafa Aytekin

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In this study, impact of adjacent footings is considered on the estimation of elastic settlement of shallow foundations. In the estimation of elastic settlement, the Schmertmann’s method that is a very popular method in the elastic settlement estimation of shallow foundations is employed. In order to consider affect of neighboring footings on elastic settlement of main footing in different configurations, a MATLAB script has been generated. Elastic settlements of the various configurations are estimated by the script and several conclusions have been reached.

Keywords: elastic (immediate) settlement, Schmertman Method, adjacent footings, shallow foundations

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Authors: Nicholas D. Assimakis

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In linear estimation, the traditional Kalman filter uses the Kalman filter gain in order to produce estimation and prediction of the n-dimensional state vector using the m-dimensional measurement vector. The computation of the Kalman filter gain requires the inversion of an m x m matrix in every iteration. In this paper, a variation of the Kalman filter eliminating the Kalman filter gain is proposed. In the time varying case, the elimination of the Kalman filter gain requires the inversion of an n x n matrix and the inversion of an m x m matrix in every iteration. In the time invariant case, the elimination of the Kalman filter gain requires the inversion of an n x n matrix in every iteration. The proposed Kalman filter gain elimination algorithm may be faster than the conventional Kalman filter, depending on the model dimensions.

Keywords: discrete time, estimation, Kalman filter, Kalman filter gain

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Authors: Leila Keshavarz Afshar, Hedieh Sajedi

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Estimation of biological brain age from MR images is a topic that has been much addressed in recent years due to the importance it attaches to early diagnosis of diseases such as Alzheimer's. In this paper, we use a 3D Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to provide a method for estimating the biological age of the brain. The 3D-CNN model is trained by MRI data that has been normalized. In addition, to reduce computation while saving overall performance, some effectual slices are selected for age estimation. By this method, the biological age of individuals using selected normalized data was estimated with Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 4.82 years.

Keywords: brain age estimation, biological age, 3D-CNN, deep learning, T1-weighted image, SPM, preprocessing, MRI, canny, gray matter

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Authors: Astika Swastirani

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Chronological age estimation can be done by looking at the stage of growth and development of teeth from orthopantomogram and mandibular remodeling from lateral cephalogram. Mandibular morphological changes associated with the size and remodeling during growth is a strong indicator of age estimation. These changes can be observed with lateral cephalogram. Objective: To prove the difference between chronological age and age estimation using orthopantomogram (dental age) and lateral cephalogram (skeletal age). Methods: Sample consisted of 100 medical records, 100 orthopantomograms digital and 100 lateral cephalograms digital belongs to 50 male and 50 female of Airlangga University hospital of dentistry. Orthopantomogram were matched with London atlas and lateral cephalograms were observed by digital tracing. The difference of dental age and skeletal age was analyzed by pair t –test. Result: Result of the pair t-test between chronological age and dental age in male (p-value 0.002, p<0.05), in female (p-value 0.605, p>0.05). Result of pair t-test between the chronological age and skeletal age (variable length Condylion-Gonion, Gonion-Gnathion, Condylion-Gnathion in male (p-value 0.000, p<0.05) in female (variable Condylion-Gonion length (p-value 0.000, Condylion-Gnathion length (p-value 0,040) and Gonion-Gnathion length (p-value 0.493). Conclusion: Orthopantomogram with London atlas and lateral cephalograms with Gonion- Gnathion variable can be used for age estimation in female. Orthopantomogram with London atlas and lateral cephalograms with Condylion-Gonion variable, Gonion-Gnathion variable and Condylion-Gnathion can not be used for age estimation in male.

Keywords: age estimation, chronological age, dental age, skeletal age

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Authors: Abdel-Razzaq Mugdadi, Ruqayyah Sani

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The Kernel Distribution Function Estimator (KDFE) method is the most popular method for nonparametric estimation of the cumulative distribution function. The kernel and the bandwidth are the most important components of this estimator. In this investigation, we replace the kernel in the KDFE with a linear combination of kernels to obtain a new estimator based on the linear combination of kernels, the mean integrated squared error (MISE), asymptotic mean integrated squared error (AMISE) and the asymptotically optimal bandwidth for the new estimator are derived. We propose a new data-based method to select the bandwidth for the new estimator. The new technique is based on the Plug-in technique in density estimation. We evaluate the new estimator and the new technique using simulations and real-life data.

Keywords: estimation, bandwidth, mean square error, cumulative distribution function

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Authors: Arpita Saha, Satish Chandra, Indrajit Ghosh

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Delay implicates the time loss of a traveler while crossing an intersection. Efficiency of traffic operation at signalized intersections is assessed in terms of delay caused to an individual vehicle. Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) method and Webster’s method are the most widely used in India for delay estimation purpose. However, in India, traffic is highly heterogeneous in nature with extremely poor lane discipline. Therefore, to explore best delay estimation technique for Indian condition, a comparison was made. In this study, seven signalized intersections from three different cities where chosen. Data was collected for both during morning and evening peak hours. Only under saturated cycles were considered for this study. Delay was estimated based on the field data. With the help of Simpson’s 1/3 rd rule, delay of under saturated cycles was estimated by measuring the area under the curve of queue length and cycle time. Moreover, the field observed delay was compared with the delay estimated using HCM, Webster, Probabilistic, Taylor’s expansion and Regression methods. The drawbacks of the existing delay estimation methods to be use in Indian heterogeneous traffic conditions were figured out, and best method was proposed. It was observed that direct estimation of delay using field measured data is more accurate than existing conventional and modified methods.

Keywords: delay estimation technique, field delay, heterogeneous traffic, signalised intersection

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Authors: Amien Rahardjo, Faiz Husnayain, Iwa Garniwa

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PLN used the kWh meter to determine the amount of energy consumed by the household customers. High precision of kWh meter is needed in order to give accuracy results as the accuracy can be decreased due to the presence of harmonic. In this study, an estimation of active power consumed was developed. Based on the first year study results, the largest deviation due to harmonics can reach up to 9.8% in 2200VA and 12.29% in 3500VA with kWh meter analog. In the second year of study, deviation of digital customer meter reaches 2.01% and analog meter up to 9.45% for 3500VA household customers. The aim of this research is to produce an estimation system to calculate the total energy consumed by household customer using analog meter so the losses due to irregularities PLN recording of energy consumption based on the measurement used Analog kWh-meter installed is avoided.

Keywords: harmonics estimation, harmonic distortion, kWh meters analog and digital, THD, household customers

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Authors: Pragyan Paramita Das, Vishwas N. Khatri

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By using the lower- and upper- bound finite elements to limit analysis in conjunction with second-order conic programming (SOCP), the effect of seismic forces on the bearing capacity of surface strip footing resting on dense sand underlain by loose sand deposit is explored. The soil is assumed to obey the Mohr-Coulomb’s yield criterion and an associated flow rule. The angle of internal friction (ϕ) of the top and the bottom layer is varied from 42° to 44° and 32° to 34° respectively. The coefficient of seismic acceleration is varied from 0 to 0.3. The variation of bearing capacity with different thickness of top layer for various seismic acceleration coefficients is generated. A comparison will be made with the available solutions from literature wherever applicable.

Keywords: bearing capacity, conic programming, finite elements, seismic forces

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Authors: Zina Benouaret, Djamil Aissani

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In this work, we introduce the qualitative and quantitative concept of the strong stability method in the risk process modeling two lines of business of the same insurance company or an insurance and re-insurance companies that divide between them both claims and premiums with a certain proportion. The approach proposed is based on the identification of the ruin probability associate to the model considered, with a stationary distribution of a Markov random process called a reversed process. Our objective, after clarifying the condition and the perturbation domain of parameters, is to obtain the stability inequality of the ruin probability which is applied to estimate the approximation error of a model with disturbance parameters by the considered model. In the stability bound obtained, all constants are explicitly written.

Keywords: Markov chain, risk models, ruin probabilities, strong stability analysis

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Authors: Yonas Masresha Aymeku

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The purpose of capacity modelling at U-turns is to develop a relationship between capacity and its geometric characteristics. In fact, the few models available for the estimation of capacity at different transportation facilities do not provide specific guidelines for median openings. For this reason, an effort is made to estimate the capacity by collecting the data sets from median openings at different lane roads in Hyderabad City, India. Wide difference (43% -59%) among the capacity values estimated by the existing models shows the limitation to consider for mixed traffic situations. Thus, a distinct model is proposed for the estimation of the capacity of U-turn vehicles at median openings considering mixed traffic conditions, which would further prompt to investigate the effect of different factors that might affect the capacity.

Keywords: geometric, guiddelines, median, vehicles

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Authors: Hui-Chuan Lu

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In a perfect secret-sharing scheme, a dealer distributes a secret among a set of participants in such a way that only qualified subsets of participants can recover the secret and the joint share of the participants in any unqualified subset is statistically independent of the secret. The access structure of the scheme refers to the collection of all qualified subsets. In a graph-based access structures, each vertex of a graph G represents a participant and each edge of G represents a minimal qualified subset. The average information ratio of a perfect secret-sharing scheme realizing a given access structure is the ratio of the average length of the shares given to the participants to the length of the secret. The infimum of the average information ratio of all possible perfect secret-sharing schemes realizing an access structure is called the optimal average information ratio of that access structure. We study the optimal average information ratio of the access structures based on bipartite graphs. Based on some previous results, we give a bound on the optimal average information ratio for all bipartite graphs of girth at least six. This bound is the best possible for some classes of bipartite graphs using our approach.

Keywords: secret-sharing scheme, average information ratio, star covering, deduction, core cluster

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Authors: Linyu Wang, Furui Huo, Jianhong Xiang

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The Doppler shift generated by high-speed movement and multipath effects in the channel are the main reasons for the generation of a time-frequency doubly-selective (DS) channel. There is severe inter-carrier interference (ICI) in the DS channel. Channel estimation for an orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) system over a DS channel is very difficult. The simultaneous orthogonal matching pursuit algorithm under distributed compressive sensing theory (DCS-SOMP) has been used in channel estimation for OFDM systems over DS channels. However, the reconstruction accuracy of the DCS-SOMP algorithm is not high enough in the low SNR stage. To solve this problem, in this paper, we propose an improved DCS-SOMP algorithm based on the inner product difference comparison operation (DCS-DCSOMP). The reconstruction accuracy is improved by increasing the number of candidate indexes and designing the comparison conditions of inner product difference. We combine the DCS-DCSOMP algorithm with the basis expansion model (BEM) to reduce the complexity of channel estimation. Simulation results show the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm and its advantages over other algorithms.

Keywords: OFDM, doubly selective, channel estimation, compressed sensing

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Authors: Mohamed Ramdani, Hassen Abdellaoui, Abdenour Boudrassen

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Mobile platform’s attitude estimation approaches mainly based on combined positioning techniques and developed algorithms; which aim to reach a fast and accurate solution. In this work, we describe the design and the implementation of an attitude determination (AD) process, using only measurements from GPS sensors. The major issue is based on smoothed GPS code data using Hatch filter and raw carrier-phase measurements integrated into attitude algorithm based on vectors measurement using least squares (LSQ) estimation method. GPS dataset from a static experiment is used to investigate the effectiveness of the presented approach and consequently to check the accuracy of the attitude estimation algorithm. Attitude results from GPS multi-antenna over short baselines are introduced and analyzed. The 3D accuracy of estimated attitude parameters using smoothed measurements is over 0.27°.

Keywords: attitude determination, GPS code data smoothing, hatch filter, carrier-phase measurements, least-squares attitude estimation

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Authors: S. Som-Am, B. Grechuk

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Moser’s worm problem is the unsolved problem in geometry which asks for the minimal area of a convex region on the plane which can cover all curves of unit length, assuming that curves may be rotated and translated to fit inside the region. We study a version of this problem asking for a minimal convex cover for closed unit curves. By combining geometric methods with numerical box’s search algorithm, we show that any such cover should have an area at least 0.0975. This improves the best previous lower bound of 0.096694. In fact, we show that the minimal area of convex hull of circle, equilateral triangle, and rectangle of perimeter 1 is between 0.0975 and 0.09763.

Keywords: Moser’s worm problem, closed arcs, convex cover, minimal-area cover

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Authors: Ilker Ali Ozkan

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In this study, an artificial neural network model has been developed to estimate chronic kidney failure which is a common disease. The patients’ age, their blood and biochemical values, and 24 input data which consists of various chronic diseases are used for the estimation process. The input data have been subjected to preprocessing because they contain both missing values and nominal values. 147 patient data which was obtained from the preprocessing have been divided into as 70% training and 30% testing data. As a result of the study, artificial neural network model with 25 neurons in the hidden layer has been found as the model with the lowest error value. Chronic kidney failure disease has been able to be estimated accurately at the rate of 99.3% using this artificial neural network model. The developed artificial neural network has been found successful for the estimation of chronic kidney failure disease using clinical data.

Keywords: estimation, artificial neural network, chronic kidney failure disease, disease diagnosis

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Authors: Benson Ade Eniola Afere

Abstract:

Over the years, kernel density estimation has been extensively studied within the context of nonparametric density estimation. The fundamental components of kernel density estimation are the kernel function and the bandwidth. While the mathematical exploration of the kernel component has been relatively limited, its selection and development remain crucial. The Mean Integrated Squared Error (MISE), serving as a measure of discrepancy, provides a robust framework for assessing the effectiveness of any kernel function. A kernel function with a lower MISE is generally considered to perform better than one with a higher MISE. Hence, the primary aim of this article is to create kernels that exhibit significantly reduced MISE when compared to existing classical kernels. Consequently, this article introduces a cluster of hybrid polynomial kernel families. The construction of these proposed kernel functions is carried out heuristically by combining two kernels from the classical polynomial kernel family using probability axioms. We delve into the analysis of error propagation within these kernels. To assess their performance, simulation experiments, and real-life datasets are employed. The obtained results demonstrate that the proposed hybrid kernels surpass their classical kernel counterparts in terms of performance.

Keywords: classical polynomial kernels, cluster of families, global error, hybrid Kernels, Kernel density estimation, Monte Carlo simulation

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Authors: Pushpendra Kumar, Sanjeev Kumar, R. Balasubramanian

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Estimation of optical flow from a sequence of images using variational methods is one of the most successful approach. Discontinuity between different motions is one of the challenging problem in flow estimation. In this paper, we design a new anisotropic diffusion operator, which is able to provide smooth flow over a region and efficiently preserve discontinuity in optical flow. This operator is designed on the basis of intensity differences of the pixels and isotropic operator using exponential function. The combination of these are used to control the propagation of flow. Experimental results on the different datasets verify the robustness and accuracy of the algorithm and also validate the effect of anisotropic operator in the discontinuity preserving.

Keywords: optical flow, variational methods, computer vision, anisotropic operator

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Authors: Nermin Sökmen

Abstract:

An effort estimation model is needed for software-intensive projects that consist of hardware, embedded software or some combination of the two, as well as high level software solutions. This paper first focuses on functional decomposition techniques to measure functional complexity of a computer system and investigates its impact on system development effort. Later, it examines effects of technical difficulty and design team capability factors in order to construct the best effort estimation model. With using traditional regression analysis technique, the study develops a system development effort estimation model which takes functional complexity, technical difficulty and design team capability factors as input parameters. Finally, the assumptions of the model are tested.

Keywords: functional complexity, functional decomposition, development effort, technical difficulty, design team capability, regression analysis

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Authors: Zdenek Silar, Martin Dobrovolny

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This article deals with the obstacle detection on a railway crossing (clearance detection). Detection is based on the optical flow estimation and classification of the flow vectors by K-means clustering algorithm. For classification of passing vehicles is used optical flow direction determination. The optical flow estimation is based on a modified Lucas-Kanade method.

Keywords: background estimation, direction of optical flow, K-means clustering, objects detection, railway crossing monitoring, velocity vectors

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Authors: Sung Hyun You, Jeong Hoon Kim, Dae Ki Kim, Choon Ki Ahn

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In this paper, we proposed a new strategy for estimating indoor temperature based on the modified resistance capacitance (R–C) network thermal dynamic model. Using minimum variance finite impulse response (FIR) filter, accurate indoor temperature estimation can be achieved. Our study is clarified by the experimental validation of the proposed indoor temperature estimation method. This experiment scenario environment is composed of a demand response (DR) server and home energy management system (HEMS) in a test bed.

Keywords: energy consumption, resistance-capacitance network model, demand response, finite impulse response filter

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Authors: Mary Ann U. Baradi, Arnold R. Elepaño, Manuel Jose C. Regalado

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Aromatic rice has become popular and continues to command higher price than ordinary rice because of its distinctive scent that makes it special. Freshly harvested aromatic rice exhibits strong aromatic scent but decreases with time and conditions during storage. Of the many volatile compounds in aromatic rice, 2-acetyl-1-pyrroline (2AP) is a major compound that gives rice its popcorn-like aroma. The diffusion mechanism of 2AP in rice was investigated. Semi-empirical models explaining 2AP diffusion as affected by temperature and duration were developed. Storage time and temperature affected 2AP loss via diffusion. The amount of 2AP in rice decreased with time. Free 2AP, being volatile, is lost due to diffusion. Storage experiment indicated rapid 2AP loss during the first five weeks and subsequently leveled off afterwards; attaining level of starch bound 2AP. Decline of 2AP during storage followed exponential equation and exhibited four stages; i.e. the initial, second, third and final stage. Free 2AP is easily lost while bound 2AP is left, only to be released upon exposure to high temperature such as cooking. Both free and bound 2AP is found in endosperm while free 2AP is in the bran. Around 63–67% of total 2AP was lost in brown and milled rice of MS 6 paddy kept at ambient. Samples stored at higher temperature (27°C) recorded higher 2AP loss than those kept at lower temperature (15°C). The study should be able to guide processors in understanding and controlling parameters in storage to produce high quality rice.

Keywords: 2-acetyl-1-pyrroline, aromatic rice, diffusion mechanism, storage

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