Search results for: Failure Analysis

Authors: Fariba Azizi, Firoozeh Haghighi, Viliam Makis

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a method to model the relationship between failure time and degradation for a simple step stress test where underlying degradation path is linear and different causes of failure are possible. It is assumed that the intensity function depends only on the degradation value. No assumptions are made about the distribution of the failure times. A simple step-stress test is used to shorten failure time of products and a tampered failure rate (TFR) model is proposed to describe the effect of the changing stress on the intensities. We assume that some of the products that fail during the test have a cause of failure that is only known to belong to a certain subset of all possible failures. This case is known as masking. In the presence of masking, the maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) of the model parameters are obtained through an expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm by treating the causes of failure as missing values. The effect of incomplete information on the estimation of parameters is studied through a Monte-Carlo simulation. Finally, a real example is analyzed to illustrate the application of the proposed methods.

Keywords: cause of failure, linear degradation path, reliability function, expectation-maximization algorithm, intensity, masked data

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Authors: Trevor N. Haas, Thomas van der Kolf

Abstract:

South Africa has some regions which are susceptible to moderate seismic activity. A peak ground acceleration of between 0.1g and 0.15g can be expected in the southern parts of the Western Cape. Unreinforced Masonry (URM) is commonly used as a construction material for 2 to 5 storey buildings in underprivileged areas in and around Cape Town. URM is typically regarded as the material most vulnerable to damage when subjected to earthquake excitation. In this study, a three-storey URM building was analysed by applying seven earthquake time-histories, which can be expected to occur in South Africa using a finite element approach. Experimental data was used to calibrate the in- and out-of-plane stiffness of the URM. The results indicated that tensile cracking of the in-plane piers was the dominant failure mode. It is concluded that URM buildings of this type are at risk of failure especially if sufficient ductility is not provided. The results also showed that connection failure must be investigated further.

Keywords: URM, seismic analysis, FEM, Cape Town

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Authors: Marimuthu Gurusamy

Abstract:

In vibration analysis (with accelerometers) of rotating machines with rolling element bearing, the customers are interested to know the failure of the machine well in advance to plan the spare inventory and maintenance. But in real world most of the machines fails before the prediction of vibration analyst or Expert analysis software. Presently the prediction of failure is based on ISO 10816 vibration limits only. But this is not enough to monitor the failure of machines well in advance. Because more than 50% of the machines will fail even the vibration readings are within acceptable zone as per ISO 10816.Hence it requires further detail analysis and different techniques to predict the failure well in advance. In vibration Analysis, the velocity spectrum is used to analyse the root cause of the mechanical problems like unbalance, misalignment and looseness etc. The envelope spectrum are used to analyse the bearing frequency components, hence the failure in inner race, outer race and rolling elements are identified. But so far there is no correlation made between these two concepts. The author used both velocity spectrum and Envelope spectrum to analyse the machine behaviour and bearing condition to correlated the changes in dynamic load (by unbalance, misalignment and looseness etc.) and effect of impact on the bearing. Hence we could able to predict the expected life of the machine and bearings in the rotating equipment (with rolling element bearings). Also we used process parameters like temperature, flow and pressure to correlate with flow induced vibration and load variations, when abnormal vibration occurs due to changes in process parameters. Hence by correlation of velocity spectrum, envelope spectrum and process data with 20 years of experience in vibration analysis, the author could able to predict the rotating Equipment and its component’s deterioration and expected duration for maintenance.

Keywords: vibration analysis, velocity spectrum, envelope spectrum, prediction of deterioration

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Authors: Gizem Yilmazel

Abstract:

Turkiye has been facing failure in English language teaching despite long years of English studies during mandatory education. A body of research studying the reasons of the failure in the literature exists yet the problem has not been solved and English language education is still a phenomenon in Turkiye. The failure is mostly attributed to the methods used in English education (Grammar Translation Method), lack of exposure to the language, inability to practice the language, financial difficulties, the belief of abroad experience necessity, national examinations, and conservative institutional policies. The findings are evident and tangible yet the problem persists. This paper aims to bring the issue a critical perspective and discuss the reasons of the failure.

Keywords: EFL, failure, critical perspective, language education

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Authors: Richard Colwell, Thomas Englert

Abstract:

In cryogenic liquefaction processes, brazed aluminum core heat exchangers are used to minimize surface area/volume of the exchanger. Aluminum alloy (5083-H321; UNS A95083) piping must transition to higher melting point 304L stainless steel piping outside of the heat exchanger kettle or cold box for safety reasons. Since aluminum alloys and austenitic stainless steel cannot be directly welded to together, a transition joint consisting of 5 layers of different metals explosively bonded are used. Failures of two of these joints resulted in process shut-down and loss of revenue. Failure analyses, FEA analysis, and mock-up testing were performed by multiple teams to gain a further understanding into the failure mechanisms involved.

Keywords: explosion bonding, intermetallic compound, thermal strain, titanium-nickel Interface

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Authors: Sarah Kalaouze, Maxine Iannucelli, Kristen Dunfield

Abstract:

Children’s implicit beliefs regarding intelligence (i.e., intelligence mindsets) influence their motivation, perseverance, and success. Previous research suggests that the way parents perceive failure influences the development of their child’s intelligence mindsets. We invited 151 children-parent dyads (Age= 5–6 years) to complete a series of difficult puzzles over zoom. We assessed parents’ intelligence and failure mindsets using questionnaires and recorded parents’ person/performance-oriented (e.g., “you are smart” or "you were almost able to complete that one) and process-oriented (e.g., “you are trying really hard” or "maybe if you place the bigger pieces first") failure feedback. We were interested in observing the relation between parental mindsets and the type of feedback provided. We found that parents’ intelligence mindsets were not predictive of the feedback they provided children. Failure mindsets, on the other hand, were predictive of failure feedback. Parents who view failure-as-debilitating provided more person-oriented feedback, focusing on performance and personal ability. Whereas parents who view failure-as-enhancing provided process-oriented feedback, focusing on effort and strategies. Taken all together, our results allow us to determine that although parents might already have a growth intelligence mindset, they don’t necessarily have a failure-as-enhancing mindset. Parents adopting a failure-as-enhancing mindset would influence their children to view failure as a learning opportunity, further promoting practice, effort, and perseverance during challenging tasks. The focus placed on a child’s learning, rather than their performance, encourages them to perceive intelligence as malleable (growth mindset) rather than fix (fixed mindset). This implies that parents should not only hold a growth mindset but thoroughly understand their role in the transmission of intelligence beliefs.

Keywords: mindset(s), failure, intelligence, parental feedback, parents

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Authors: Nazanin Ahmadi Daryakenari

Abstract:

Background: Diabetes significantly influences the risk of heart failure. The interplay between distinct types of diabetes, heart failure, and their distribution across various age groups remains an area of active exploration. This study endeavors to scrutinize the age group distribution in publications addressing Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes and heart failure on PubMed while also examining the evolving publication trends. Methods: We leveraged E-utilities and RegEx to search and extract publication data from PubMed using various mesh terms. Subsequently, we conducted descriptive statistics and t-tests to discern the differences between the two diabetes types and the distribution across age groups. Finally, we analyzed the temporal trends of publications concerning both types of diabetes and heart failure. Results: Our findings revealed a divergence in the age group distribution between Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes within heart failure publications. Publications discussing Type 2 diabetes and heart failure were more predominant among older age groups, whereas those addressing Type 1 diabetes and heart failure displayed a more balanced distribution across all age groups. The t-test revealed no significant difference in the means between the two diabetes types. However, the number of publications exploring the relationship between Type 2 diabetes and heart failure has seen a steady increase over time, suggesting an escalating interest in this area. Conclusion: The dissection of publication patterns on PubMed uncovers a pronounced association between Type 2 diabetes and heart failure within older age groups. This highlights the critical need to comprehend the distinct age group differences when examining diabetes and heart failure to inform and refine targeted prevention and treatment strategies.

Keywords: Type 1 diabetes, Type 2 diabetes, heart failure, age groups, publication patterns, PubMed

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Authors: Katarzyna Niewiadomska

Abstract:

Many technology startups fail to achieve a worthwhile return on investment for their funders, founders, and employees. Failures in product development, to-market strategy, sales, and delivery are commonly recognized. Founder failures are not as obvious and harder to identify. This paper explores six critical failure points that entrepreneurs and innovators are susceptible to and aims to link their emotional intelligence and behavioral profile to the points at which they experienced self-perceived failure. A model of six failure points from the perspective of the technology entrepreneur ranging from pre-startup to maturity is provided. By analyzing emotional and behavioral profile data from entrepreneurs and recording in-person accounts, certain key emotional and behavioral clusters contributing to each failure point are determined, and several underlying factors are defined and discussed. Recommendations that support entrepreneurs and innovators stalling at each failure point are given. This work can enable stakeholders to evaluate founder emotional and behavioral profiles and to take risk-mitigating action, either through coaching or through more robust team creation, to avoid founder-related company failure. The paper will be of interest to investors funding startups, executives leading them and mentors supporting them.

Keywords: behavior, emotional intelligence, entrepreneur, failure

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Authors: Amir Ghasem Norouzi, Mahdi Zowghi

Abstract:

This study propose a framework based on the fuzzy T-Norms, T-conorm, a novel operator, and multi-expert approach to help organizations build awareness of the critical influential factors on the success of knowledge management (KM) implementation, analysis the failure of knowledge management. This study considers the complex uncertainty concept that is in knowledge management implementing capability (KMIC) and it is used by fuzzy logic for this reason. The contribution of our paper is shown with an empirical study in a nonprofit educational organization evaluation.

Keywords: fuzzy logic, knowledge management, multi expert analysis, consensus oriented average operator

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Authors: Ghiwa Dandach

Abstract:

By challenging the anti-failure bias and contributing to the theoretical territory of the attribution theory, this thesis develops a comprehensive process for entrepreneurial learning from failure. The practical implication of the findings suggests assisting entrepreneurs (current, failing, and nascent) in effectively anticipating and reflecting upon failure. Additionally, the process is suggested to enhance the level of institutional and private (accelerators and financers) support provided to entrepreneurs, the implications of which may improve future opportunities for entrepreneurial success. Henceforth, exploring learning from failure is argued to impact the potential survival of future ventures, subsequently revitalizing the economic contribution of entrepreneurship. This learning process can be enhanced with the cognitive development of causal ascriptions for failure, which eventually impacts learning outcomes. However, the mechanism with which entrepreneurs make sense of failure, reflect on the journey, and transform experience into knowledge is still under-researched. More specifically, the cognitive process of failure attribution is under-explored, majorly in the context of developing economies, calling for a more insightful understanding on how entrepreneurs ascribe failure. Responding to the call for more thorough research in such cultural contexts, this study expands the understanding of the dimensions of failure attributions as perceived by entrepreneurs and the impact of these dimensions on learning outcomes in the Lebanese context. The research adopted the exploratory interpretivism paradigm and collected data from interviews with industry experts first, followed by narratives of entrepreneurs using the qualitative multimethod approach. The holistic and categorical content analysis of narratives, preceded by the thematic analysis of interviews, unveiled how entrepreneurs ascribe failure by developing minor and major dimensions of each failure attribution. The findings have also revealed how each dimension impacts the learning from failure when accompanied by emotional resilience. The thesis concludes that exploring in-depth the dimensions of failure attributions significantly determines the level of learning generated. They are moving beyond the simple categorisation of ascriptions as primary internal or external unveiled how learning may occur with each attribution at the individual, venture, and ecosystem levels. This has further accentuated that a major internal attribution of failure combined with a minor external attribution generated the highest levels of transformative and double-loop learning, emphasizing the role of personal blame and responsibility on enhancing learning outcomes.

Keywords: attribution, entrepreneurship, reflection, sense-making, emotions, learning outcomes, failure, exit

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Authors: Said Fares, Mary Fares

Abstract:

It is well documented that introductory computer programming courses are difficult and that failure rates are high. The aim of this project was to reduce the high failure and withdrawal rates in learning to program. This paper presents a number of changes in module organization and instructional delivery system in teaching CS1. Daily out of class help sessions and tutoring services were applied, interactive lectures and laboratories, online resources, and timely feedback were introduced. Five years of data of 563 students in 21 sections was collected and analyzed. The primary results show that the failure and withdrawal rates were cut by more than half. Student surveys indicate a positive evaluation of the modified instructional approach, overall satisfaction with the course and consequently, higher success and retention rates.

Keywords: failure rate, interactive learning, student engagement, CS1

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Authors: F. Sangiorgio, J. Silfwerbrand, G. Mancini

Abstract:

Geometric and mechanical properties all influence the resistance of RC structures and may, in certain combination of property values, increase the risk of a brittle failure of the whole system. This paper presents a statistical and probabilistic investigation on the resistance of RC beams designed according to Eurocodes 2 and 8, and subjected to multiple failure modes, under both the natural variation of material properties and the uncertainty associated with cross-section and transverse reinforcement geometry. A full probabilistic model based on JCSS Probabilistic Model Code is derived. Different beams are studied through material nonlinear analysis via Monte Carlo simulations. The resistance model is consistent with Eurocode 2. Both a multivariate statistical evaluation and the data clustering analysis of outcomes are then performed. Results show that the ultimate load behaviour of RC beams subjected to flexural and shear failure modes seems to be mainly influenced by the combination of the mechanical properties of both longitudinal reinforcement and stirrups, and the tensile strength of concrete, of which the latter appears to affect the overall response of the system in a nonlinear way. The model uncertainty of the resistance model used in the analysis plays undoubtedly an important role in interpreting results.

Keywords: modelling, Monte Carlo simulations, probabilistic models, data clustering, reinforced concrete members, structural design

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Authors: Mustapha Kamel Mihoubi, Mohamed Essadik Kerkar

Abstract:

Probabilistic risk analysis models are used to provide a better understanding of the reliability and structural failure of works, including when calculating the stability of large structures to a major risk in the event of an accident or breakdown. This work is interested in the study of the probability of failure of concrete dams through the application of reliability analysis methods including the methods used in engineering. It is in our case, the use of level 2 methods via the study limit state. Hence, the probability of product failures is estimated by analytical methods of the type first order risk method (FORM) and the second order risk method (SORM). By way of comparison, a level three method was used which generates a full analysis of the problem and involves an integration of the probability density function of random variables extended to the field of security using the Monte Carlo simulation method. Taking into account the change in stress following load combinations: normal, exceptional and extreme acting on the dam, calculation of the results obtained have provided acceptable failure probability values which largely corroborate the theory, in fact, the probability of failure tends to increase with increasing load intensities, thus causing a significant decrease in strength, shear forces then induce a shift that threatens the reliability of the structure by intolerable values of the probability of product failures. Especially, in case the increase of uplift in a hypothetical default of the drainage system.

Keywords: dam, failure, limit-state, monte-carlo, reliability, probability, simulation, sliding, taylor

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Authors: Deepak Raj Bhat, Ryuichi Yatabe

Abstract:

In this study, a residual-state creep failure model was developed based on the residual-state creep test results of clayey soils. To develop the proposed model, the regression analyses were done by using the R. The model results of the failure time (tf) and critical displacement (δc) were compared with experimental results and found in close agreements to each others. It is expected that the proposed regression model for residual-state creep failure will be more useful for the prediction of displacement of different clayey soils in the future.

Keywords: regression model, residual-state creep failure, displacement prediction, clayey soils

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Authors: Nilesh Pancholi, Mangal Bhatt

Abstract:

This paper highlights comparative results of traditional FMECA and multi-factor decision-making approach based on “Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS)” for aluminum wire rolling mill plant. The suggested study is carried out to overcome the limitations of FMECA by assigning the scores against each failure modes in crisp values to evaluate the criticalities of the failure modes without uncertainty. The primary findings of the paper are that sudden impact on the rolls seems to be most critical failure cause and high contact stresses due to rolling & sliding action of mesh to be least critical failure cause. It is suggested to modify the current control practices with proper maintenance strategy based on achieved maintainability criticality index (MCI). The outcome of the study will be helpful in deriving optimized maintenance plan to maximize the performance of continuous process industry.

Keywords: reliability, maintenance, FMECA, TOPSIS, process industry

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Authors: Hasan Husnu Korkmaz, Serra Zerrin Korkmaz

Abstract:

Earthquakes are the natural disasters that threat several countries. Turkey is situated on a very active earthquake zone. During the recent earthquakes, thousands of people died due to failure of reinforced concrete structures. Although Turkey has a very sufficient earthquake code, the design and construction mistakes were repeated for old structures. Lack of the control mechanism during the construction process may be the most important reason of failure. The quality of the concrete and poor detailing of steel or reinforcement is the most important headings. In this paper, the reasons of failure of reinforced concrete structures were summarized with relevant photos. The paper is beneficial for civil engineers as well as architect who are in the process of construction and design of structures in earthquake zones.

Keywords: earthquake, reinforced concrete structure, failure, material

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Authors: Chun-Qing Li, Guoyang Fu, Wei Yang

Abstract:

A significant portion of current water networks is made of cast iron pipes. Due to aging and deterioration with corrosion being the most predominant mechanism, the failure rate of cast iron pipes is very high. Although considerable research has been carried out in the past few decades, most are on the effect of corrosion on the structural capacity of pipes using strength theory as the failure criterion. This paper presents a reliability-based methodology for the assessment of corrosion affected cast iron pipe cracking failures. A nonlinear limit state function taking into account all three fracture modes is proposed for brittle metal pipes with mixed mode fracture. A stochastic model of the load effect is developed, and time-dependent reliability method is employed to quantify the probability of failure and predict the remaining service life. A case study is carried out using the proposed methodology, followed by sensitivity analysis to investigate the effects of the random variables on the probability of failure. It has been found that the larger the inclination angle or the Mode I fracture toughness is, the smaller the probability of pipe failure is. It has also been found that the multiplying and exponential coefficients k and n in the power law corrosion model and the internal pressure have the most influence on the probability of failure for cast iron pipes. The methodology presented in this paper can assist pipe engineers and asset managers in developing a risk-informed and cost-effective strategy for better management of corrosion-affected pipelines.

Keywords: corrosion, inclined surface cracks, pressurized cast iron pipes, stress intensity

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Authors: Mustapha Kamel Mihoubi, Essadik Kerkar, Abdelhamid Hebbouche

Abstract:

According to the randomness of most of the factors affecting the stability of a gravity dam, probability theory is generally used to TESTING the risk of failure and there is a confusing logical transition from the state of stability failed state, so the stability failure process is considered as a probable event. The control of risk of product failures is of capital importance for the control from a cross analysis of the gravity of the consequences and effects of the probability of occurrence of identified major accidents and can incur a significant risk to the concrete dam structures. Probabilistic risk analysis models are used to provide a better understanding the reliability and structural failure of the works, including when calculating stability of large structures to a major risk in the event of an accident or breakdown. This work is interested in the study of the probability of failure of concrete dams through the application of the reliability analysis methods including the methods used in engineering. It is in our case of the use of level II methods via the study limit state. Hence, the probability of product failures is estimated by analytical methods of the type FORM (First Order Reliability Method), SORM (Second Order Reliability Method). By way of comparison, a second level III method was used which generates a full analysis of the problem and involving an integration of the probability density function of, random variables are extended to the field of security by using of the method of Mont-Carlo simulations. Taking into account the change in stress following load combinations: normal, exceptional and extreme the acting on the dam, calculation results obtained have provided acceptable failure probability values which largely corroborate the theory, in fact, the probability of failure tends to increase with increasing load intensities thus causing a significant decrease in strength, especially in the presence of combinations of unique and extreme loads. Shear forces then induce a shift threatens the reliability of the structure by intolerable values of the probability of product failures. Especially, in case THE increase of uplift in a hypothetical default of the drainage system.

Keywords: dam, failure, limit state, monte-carlo, reliability, probability, sliding, Taylor

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Authors: Amar Sabih, James Nemes

Abstract:

The occurrence of internal ductile failure within the Adiabatic Shear Band (ASB) in cold-headed products presents a significant barrier in the fast-expanding cold-heading (CH) industry. The presence of internal ductile failure in cold-headed products may lead to catastrophic fracture under tensile loads despite the ductile nature of the material causing expensive industrial recalls. Therefore, this paper presents a new workability criterion that uses stress instability as an indicator to accurately reveal the locus of initiation of internal ductile failures. The concept of the instability criterion is to use the stress ratio at failure as a weighting function to indicate the initiation of ductile failure inside the ASBs. This paper presents a comprehensive experimental, metallurgical, and finite element simulation study to calculate the material constants used in this criterion.

Keywords: adiabatic sher band, ductile failure, stress instability, workability criterion

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Authors: Souvik Das, Sandip Bhattacharya, Goutam Mukhopadhyay, Manashi Adhikary

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Wires breakages during cold drawing are a complex phenomenon; wire breakages may be induced by improper wire-rod quality, inappropriate heat-treated microstructure, and/or lubrication breakdown on the wire surface. A comprehensive metallurgical investigation of failed/broken wire samples is therefore essential for understanding the origin of failure. Frequent breakage of wires during drawing is a matter of serious concern to the wire drawers as it erodes their already slim margins through reduced productivity and loss in yield. The present paper highlights the failure investigation of wires of Low Relaxation Prestressed High Carbon grade during cold drawing due to entrapment of hard constituents detached from the roller entry guide during rolling operations. The hardness measurement of this entrapped location indicates 54.9 Rockwell Hardness as against the rest portion 33.4 Rockwell Hardness. The microstructure chemical analysis and X-ray mapping analysis data of the entrapment location confirmed complex chromium carbide originated from D2-steel used in entry guide during the rolling process. Since the harder entrapped phase could not be deformed in the same manner as the parent phase, the failure of the wire rod occurs during hot rolling.

Keywords: LRPC, D2-steel, chromium carbide, roller guide

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Authors: Ahmed O. Babaleye, Rafet E. Kurt

Abstract:

The global oil and gas industry is beginning to witness an increase in the number of installations moving towards decommissioning. Decommissioning of offshore installations is a complex, costly and hazardous activity, making safety one of the major concerns. Among existing removal options, complete and partial removal options pose the highest risks. Therefore, a dynamic risk model of the accidents from the two options is important to assess the risks on an overall basis. In this study, a risk-based safety model is developed to conduct quantitative risk analysis (QRA) for jacket structure systems failure. Firstly, bow-tie (BT) technique is utilised to model the causal relationship between the system failure and potential accident scenarios. Subsequently, to relax the shortcomings of BT, Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) were established to dynamically assess associated uncertainties and conditional dependencies. The BBN is developed through a similitude mapping of the developed bow-tie. The BBN is used to update the failure probabilities of the contributing elements through diagnostic analysis, thus, providing a case-specific and realistic safety analysis method when compared to a bow-tie. This paper presents the application of dynamic safety analysis to guide the allocation of risk control measures and consequently, drive down the avoidable cost of remediation.

Keywords: Bayesian belief network, offshore decommissioning, dynamic safety model, quantitative risk analysis

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Authors: Niloufar Khoshbakht, Peggi L. Clouston, Sanjay R. Arwade, Alexander C. Schreyer

Abstract:

Laminated veneer bamboo (LVB) is a structural engineered composite made from glued layers of bamboo. A relatively new building product, LVB is currently employed in similar sizes and applications as dimensional lumber. This study describes the results of a 3D elastic Finite Element model for halfhole specimens when loaded in compression parallel-to-grain per ASTM 5764. The model simulates LVB fracture initiation due to shear stresses in the dowel joint and predicts displacement at failure validated through comparison with experimental results. The material fails at 1mm displacement due to in-plane shear stresses. The paper clarifies the complex interactive state of in-plane shear, tension perpendicular-to-grain, and compression parallel-to-grain stresses that form different distributions in the critical zone beneath the bolt hole for half-hole specimens. These findings are instrumental in understanding key factors and fundamental failure mechanisms that occur in LVB dowel connections to help devise safe standards and further LVB product adoption and design.

Keywords: composite, dowel connection, embedment strength, failure behavior, finite element analysis, Moso bamboo

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Authors: Muhammad Rezal Kamel Ariffin, Muhammad Asyraf Asbullah

Abstract:

The square root modulo problem is a known primitive in designing an asymmetric cryptosystem. It was first attempted by Rabin. Decryption failure of the Rabin cryptosystem caused by the 4-to-1 decryption output is overcome efficiently in this work. The proposed scheme to overcome the decryption failure issue (known as the AAβ-cryptosystem) is constructed using a simple mathematical structure, it has low computational requirements and would enable communication devices with low computing power to deploy secure communication procedures efficiently.

Keywords: Rabin cryptosystem, 4-to-1 decryption failure, square root modulo problem, integer factorization problem

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Authors: Jelena Vucicevic

Abstract:

Reliability analysis represents a very important task in different areas of work. In any industry, this is crucial for maintenance, efficiency, safety and monetary costs. There are ways to calculate reliability, unreliability, failure density and failure rate. In this paper, the results for the reliability of diesel generator fans were calculated through Extreme Value Theory. The Extreme Value Theory is not widely used in the engineering field. Its usage is well known in other areas such as hydrology, meteorology, finance. The significance of this theory is in the fact that unlike the other statistical methods it is focused on rare and extreme values, and not on average. It should be noted that this theory is not designed exclusively for extreme events, but for extreme values in any event. Therefore, this is a great opportunity to apply the theory and test if it could be applied in this situation. The significance of the work is the calculation of time to failure or reliability in a new way, using statistic. Another advantage of this calculation is that there is no need for technical details and it can be implemented in any part for which we need to know the time to fail in order to have appropriate maintenance, but also to maximize usage and minimize costs. In this case, calculations have been made on diesel generator fans but the same principle can be applied to any other part. The data for this paper came from a field engineering study of the time to failure of diesel generator fans. The ultimate goal was to decide whether or not to replace the working fans with a higher quality fan to prevent future failures. The results achieved in this method will show the approximation of time for which the fans will work as they should, and the percentage of probability of fans working more than certain estimated time. Extreme Value Theory can be applied not only for rare and extreme events, but for any event that has values which we can consider as extreme.

Keywords: extreme value theory, lifetime, reliability analysis, statistic, time to failure

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Authors: Jiaqian Yin, Ruoling Chen, David Churchill, Huijuan Zou, Peipei Guo, Chunmei Liang, Xiaoqing Peng, Zhikang Zhang, Weiju Zhou, Yunxia Cao

Abstract:

Purpose: This study aimed to explore the interaction of male and female age on implantation failure from in vitro fertilisation (IVF)/ intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) treatments in couples following their first cycles using the Anhui Maternal-Child Health Study (AMCHS). Methods: The AMCHS recruited 2042 infertile couples who were physically fit for in vitro fertilisation (IVF) or intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) treatment at the Reproductive Centre of the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University between May 2017 to April 2021. This prospective cohort study analysed the data from 1910 cohort couples for the current paper data analysis. The multivariate logistic regression model was used to identify the effect of male and female age on implantation failure after controlling for confounding factors. Male age and female age were examined as continuous and categorical (male age: 20-<25, 25-<30, 30-<35, 35-<40, ≥40; female age: 20-<25, 25-<30, 30-<35, 35-<40, ≥40) predictors. Results: Logistic regression indicated that advanced maternal age was associated with increased implantation failure (P<0.001). There was evidence of an interaction between maternal age (30-<35 and ≥ 35) and paternal age (≥35) on implantation failure. (p<0.05). Only when the male was ≥35 years of increased maternal age was associated with the risk of implantation failure. Conclusion: In conclusion, there was an additive effect on implantation failure with advanced parental age. The impact of advanced maternal age was only seen in the older paternal age group. The delay of childbearing in both men and women will be a serious public issue that may contribute to a higher risk of implantation failure in patients needing assisted reproductive technology (ART).

Keywords: parental age, infertility, cohort study, IVF

Procedia PDF Downloads 119

Authors: Amar Sabih, James Nemes

Abstract:

The occurrence of internal ductile failure within the Adiabatic Shear Band (ASB) in cold-headed products presents a significant barrier in the fast-expanding cold-heading (CH) industry. The presence of internal ductile failure in cold-headed products may lead to catastrophic fracture under tensile loads despite the ductile nature of the material causing expensive industrial recalls. Therefore, this paper presents a workability criterion that uses stress instability as an indicator to accurately reveal the locus of initiation of internal ductile failures. The concept of the instability criterion is to use the stress ratio at failure as a weighting function to indicate the initiation of ductile failure inside the ASBs. This paper presents a comprehensive experimental, metallurgical, and finite element simulation study to calculate the material constants used in this criterion.

Keywords: adiabatic shear band, workability criterion, ductile failure, stress instability

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Authors: Yingkun Huang, Li Guo, Zekang Lan, Kai Tian

Abstract:

Hard disk drives (HDD) failure of the exascale supercomputing system may lead to service interruption and invalidate previous calculations, and it will cause permanent data loss. Therefore, initiating corrective actions before hard drive failures materialize is critical to the continued operation of jobs. In this paper, a highly accurate analysis model based on CNN-LSTM and oversampling technique was proposed, which can correctly predict the necessity of a disk replacement even ten days in advance. Generally, the learning-based method performs poorly on a training dataset with long-tail distribution, especially fault prediction is a very classic situation as the scarcity of failure data. To overcome the puzzle, a new oversampling was employed to augment the data, and then, an improved CNN-LSTM with the shortcut was built to learn more effective features. The shortcut transmits the results of the previous layer of CNN and is used as the input of the LSTM model after weighted fusion with the output of the next layer. Finally, a detailed, empirical comparison of 6 prediction methods is presented and discussed on a public dataset for evaluation. The experiments indicate that the proposed method predicts disk failure with 0.91 Precision, 0.91 Recall, 0.91 F-measure, and 0.90 MCC for 10 days prediction horizon. Thus, the proposed algorithm is an efficient algorithm for predicting HDD failure in supercomputing.

Keywords: HDD replacement, failure, CNN-LSTM, oversampling, prediction

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Authors: Isha Saxena, Behzad Kazemtabrizi, Matthias C. M. Troffaes, Christopher Crabtree

Abstract:

The calculations done at the beginning of the life of a wind farm are rarely reliable, which makes it important to conduct research and study the failure and repair rates of the wind turbines under various conditions. This miscalculation happens because the current models make a simplifying assumption that the failure/repair rate remains constant over time. This means that the reliability function is exponential in nature. This research aims to create a more accurate model using sensory data and a data-driven approach. The data cleaning and data processing is done by comparing the Power Curve data of the wind turbines with SCADA data. This is then converted to times to repair and times to failure timeseries data. Several different mathematical functions are fitted to the times to failure and times to repair data of the wind turbine components using Maximum Likelihood Estimation and the Posterior expectation method for Bayesian Parameter Estimation. Initial results indicate that two parameter Weibull function and exponential function produce almost identical results. Further analysis is being done using the complex system analysis considering the failures of each electrical and mechanical component of the wind turbine. The aim of this project is to perform a more accurate reliability analysis that can be helpful for the engineers to schedule maintenance and repairs to decrease the downtime of the turbine.

Keywords: reliability, bayesian parameter inference, maximum likelihood estimation, weibull function, SCADA data

Procedia PDF Downloads 31

Authors: Yongrong Liu, Xin Tang

Abstract:

Background: Persistent atrial fibrillation is a common arrhythmia closely related to heart failure. Heart rate control is an essential strategy for treating persistent atrial fibrillation. Still, the understanding of the relationship between different heart rate control levels and the risk of heart failure rehospitalization is limited. Objective: The objective of the study is to determine the relationship between different levels of heart rate control in patients with persistent atrial fibrillation and the risk of readmission for heart failure. Methods: We conducted a retrospective dual-centre cohort study, collecting data from patients with persistent atrial fibrillation who received outpatient treatment at two tertiary hospitals in central and western China from March 2019 to March 2020. The collected data included age, gender, body mass index (BMI), medical history, and hospitalization frequency due to heart failure. Patients were divided into three groups based on their heart rate control levels: Group I with a resting heart rate of less than 80 beats per minute, Group II with a resting heart rate between 80 and 100 beats per minute, and Group III with a resting heart rate greater than 100 beats per minute. The readmission rates due to heart failure within one year after discharge were statistically analyzed using propensity score matching in a 1:1 ratio. Differences in readmission rates among the different groups were compared using one-way ANOVA. The impact of varying levels of heart rate control on the risk of readmission for heart failure was assessed using the Cox proportional hazards model. Binary logistic regression analysis was employed to control for potential confounding factors. Results: We enrolled a total of 1136 patients with persistent atrial fibrillation. The results of the one-way ANOVA showed that there were differences in readmission rates among groups exposed to different levels of heart rate control. The readmission rates due to heart failure for each group were as follows: Group I (n=432): 31 (7.17%); Group II (n=387): 11.11%; Group III (n=317): 90 (28.50%) (F=54.3, P<0.001). After performing 1:1 propensity score matching for the different groups, 223 pairs were obtained. Analysis using the Cox proportional hazards model showed that compared to Group I, the risk of readmission for Group II was 1.372 (95% CI: 1.125-1.682, P<0.001), and for Group III was 2.053 (95% CI: 1.006-5.437, P<0.001). Furthermore, binary logistic regression analysis, including variables such as digoxin, hypertension, smoking, coronary heart disease, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease as independent variables, revealed that coronary heart disease and COPD also had a significant impact on readmission due to heart failure (p<0.001). Conclusion: The correlation between the heart rate control level of patients with persistent atrial fibrillation and the risk of heart failure rehospitalization is positive. Reasonable heart rate control may significantly reduce the risk of heart failure rehospitalization.

Keywords: heart rate control levels, heart failure rehospitalization, persistent atrial fibrillation, retrospective cohort study

Procedia PDF Downloads 45

Authors: Shivdayal Patel, Suhail Ahmad

Abstract:

Safety assurance and failure prediction of composite material component of an offshore structure due to low velocity impact is essential for associated risk assessment. It is important to incorporate uncertainties associated with material properties and load due to an impact. Likelihood of this hazard causing a chain of failure events plays an important role in risk assessment. The material properties of composites mostly exhibit a scatter due to their in-homogeneity and anisotropic characteristics, brittleness of the matrix and fiber and manufacturing defects. In fact, the probability of occurrence of such a scenario is due to large uncertainties arising in the system. Probabilistic finite element analysis of composite plates due to low-velocity impact is carried out considering uncertainties of material properties and initial impact velocity. Impact-induced damage of composite plate is a probabilistic phenomenon due to a wide range of uncertainties arising in material and loading behavior. A typical failure crack initiates and propagates further into the interface causing de-lamination between dissimilar plies. Since individual crack in the ply is difficult to track. The progressive damage model is implemented in the FE code by a user-defined material subroutine (VUMAT) to overcome these problems. The limit state function is accordingly established while the stresses in the lamina are such that the limit state function (g(x)>0). The Gaussian process response surface method is presently adopted to determine the probability of failure. A comparative study is also carried out for different combination of impactor masses and velocities. The sensitivity based probabilistic design optimization procedure is investigated to achieve better strength and lighter weight of composite structures. Chain of failure events due to different modes of failure is considered to estimate the consequences of failure scenario. Frequencies of occurrence of specific impact hazards yield the expected risk due to economic loss.

Keywords: composites, damage propagation, low velocity impact, probability of failure, uncertainty modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 254