Search results for: ERP system failure measurement model

Authors: Malihe Motiei, Nor Hidayati Zakaria, Davide Aloini

Abstract:

This study aims to present a method to develop the failure measurement model for ERP post-implementation. To achieve this outcome, the study firstly evaluates the suitability of Technology-Organization-Environment framework for the proposed conceptual model. This study explains how to discover the constructs and subsequently to design and evaluate the constructs as formative or reflective. Constructs are used including reflective and purely formative. Then, the risk dimensions are investigated to determine the instruments to examine the impact of risk on ERP failure after implementation. Two construct as formative constructs consist inadequate implementation and poor organizational decision making. Subsequently six construct as reflective construct include technical risks, operational risks, managerial risks, top management risks, lack of external risks, and user’s inefficiency risks. A survey was conducted among Iranian industries to collect data. 69 data were collected from manufacturing sectors and the data were analyzed by Smart PLS software. The results indicated that all measurements included 39 critical risk factors were acceptable for the ERP post-implementation failure model.

Keywords: critical risk factors (CRFs), ERP projects, ERP post-implementation, measurement instruments, ERP system failure measurement model

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Authors: Nor Fazlina Iryani Abdul Hamid, Mohamad Khatim Hasan

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Evolution of software quality measurement has been started since McCall introduced his quality model in year 1977. Starting from there, several software quality models and software quality measurement methods had emerged but none of them focused on telecommunication industry. In this paper, the implementation of software quality measurement system for telecommunication industry was compulsory to accommodate the rapid growth of telecommunication industry. The quality value of the telecommunication related software could be calculated using this system by entering the required parameters. The system would calculate the quality value of the measured system based on predefined quality metrics and aggregated by referring to the quality model. It would classify the quality level of the software based on Net Satisfaction Index (NSI). Thus, software quality measurement system was important to both developers and users in order to produce high quality software product for telecommunication industry.

Keywords: software quality, quality measurement, quality model, quality metric, net satisfaction index

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Authors: Akram Khaleghei Ghosheh Balagh, Viliam Makis, Leila Jafari

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In this paper, we present a new maintenance model for a partially observable system subject to two failure modes, namely a catastrophic failure and a failure due to the system degradation. The system is subject to condition monitoring and the degradation process is described by a hidden Markov model. A cost-optimal Bayesian control policy is developed for maintaining the system. The control problem is formulated in the semi-Markov decision process framework. An effective computational algorithm is developed and illustrated by a numerical example.

Keywords: partially observable system, hidden Markov model, competing risks, multivariate Bayesian control

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Authors: Royia Soliman, Salma ElAnsary, Akram Amin Abdellatif, Florian Holzapfel

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Model-Based Safety Analysis (MBSA) is an approach in which the system and safety engineers share a common system model created using a model-based development process. The model can also be extended by the failure modes of the system components. There are two famous approaches for the addition of fault behaviors to system models. The first one is to enclose the failure into the system design directly. The second approach is to develop a fault model separately from the system model, thus combining both independent models for safety analysis. This paper introduces a hybrid approach of MBSA. The approach tries to use informal abstracted models to investigate failure behaviors. The approach will combine various concepts such as directed graph traversal, event lists and Constraint Satisfaction Problems (CSP). The approach is implemented using an Object Oriented programming language. The components are abstracted to its failure logic and relationships of connected components. The implemented approach is tested on various flight control systems, including electrical and multi-domain examples. The various tests are analyzed, and a comparison to different approaches is represented.

Keywords: flight control systems, model based safety analysis, safety assessment analysis, system modelling

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Authors: Akram Khaleghei, Ghosheh Balagh, Viliam Makis

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In this paper, we investigate the residual life prediction problem for a partially observable system subject to two failure modes, namely a catastrophic failure and a failure due to the system degradation. The system is subject to condition monitoring and the degradation process is described by a hidden Markov model with unknown parameters. The parameter estimation procedure based on an EM algorithm is developed and the formulas for the conditional reliability function and the mean residual life are derived, illustrated by a numerical example.

Keywords: partially observable system, hidden Markov model, competing risks, residual life prediction

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Authors: V. V. Singh

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We have studied the reliability measures of a system, which consists of two subsystems i.e. subsystem-1 and subsystem-2 in series configuration under different types of failure. The subsystem-1 has three identical units in parallel configuration and operating under 2-out-of-3: G policy and connected to subsystem-2 in series configuration. Each subsystem has different types of failure and repair rates. An important cause for failure of system is unsuitability of the environmental conditions, like overheating, weather conditions, heavy rainfall, storm etc. The environmental failure is taken into account in the proposed repairable system. Supplementary variable technique is used to study of system and some traditional measures such as; availability, reliability, MTTF and profit function are obtained for different values of parameters. In the proposed model, some particular cases of failure rates are explicitly studied.

Keywords: environmental failure, human failure, availability, MTTF, reliability, profit analysis, Gumbel-Hougaard family copula

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Authors: Eduardo C. Guardia, Jose W. M. Lima, Afonso H. M. Santos

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This paper presents a nonparametric method to obtain the hazard rate “Bathtub curve” for power system components. The model is a mixture of the three known phases of a component life, the decreasing failure rate (DFR), the constant failure rate (CFR) and the increasing failure rate (IFR) represented by three parametric Weibull models. The parameters are obtained from a simultaneous fitting process of the model to the Kernel nonparametric hazard rate curve. From the Weibull parameters and failure rate curves the useful lifetime and the characteristic lifetime were defined. To demonstrate the model the historic time-to-failure of distribution transformers were used as an example. The resulted “Bathtub curve” shows the failure rate for the equipment lifetime which can be applied in economic and replacement decision models.

Keywords: bathtub curve, failure analysis, lifetime estimation, parameter estimation, Weibull distribution

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Authors: Lei Chen, Jian Jiao, Tingdi Zhao

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Failures of automotive electric/electronic systems, which are universally considered to be safety-critical and software-intensive, may cause catastrophic accidents. Analysis and verification of failures in these kinds of systems is a big challenge with increasing system complexity. Model-checking is often employed to allow formal verification by ensuring that the system model conforms to specified safety properties. The system-level effects of failures are established, and the effects on system behavior are observed through the formal verification. A hazard analysis technique, called Systems-Theoretic Process Analysis, is capable of identifying design flaws which may cause potential failure hazardous, including software and system design errors and unsafe interactions among multiple system components. This paper provides a concept on how to use model-checking integrated with Systems-Theoretic Process Analysis to perform failure analysis and verification of automotive electric/electronic systems. As a result, safety requirements are optimized, and failure propagation paths are found. Finally, an automotive electric/electronic system case study is used to verify the effectiveness and practicability of the method.

Keywords: failure analysis and verification, model checking, system-theoretic process analysis, automotive electric/electronic system

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Authors: Vincent King Soon Wong, Hong Seng Ng, Florinna Sim

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Negative Bias Temperature Instability (NBTI) is one of the critical degradation mechanisms in semiconductor device reliability that causes shift in the threshold voltage (Vth). However, thorough understanding of this reliability failure mechanism is still unachievable due to a recovery characteristic known as NBTI recovery. This paper will demonstrate the severity of NBTI recovery as well as one of the effective methods used to mitigate, which is the minimization of measurement system delays. Comparison was done in between two measurement systems that have significant differences in measurement delays to show how NBTI recovery causes result deviations and how fast measurement systems can mitigate NBTI recovery. Another method to minimize NBTI recovery without the influence of measurement system known as Fast Wafer Level Reliability (FWLR) NBTI was also done to be used as reference.

Keywords: fast vs slow BTI, fast wafer level reliability (FWLR), negative bias temperature instability (NBTI), NBTI measurement system, metal-oxide-semiconductor field-effect transistor (MOSFET), NBTI recovery, reliability

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Authors: Catherine Maware, Olufemi Adetunji

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The paper is aimed at developing a model to measure the impact of Lean manufacturing deployment on organizational performance. The model will help industry practitioners to assess the impact of implementing Lean constructs on organizational performance. It will also harmonize the measurement models of Lean performance with the house of Lean that seems to have become the industry standard. The sheer number of measurement models for impact assessment of Lean implementation makes it difficult for new adopters to select an appropriate assessment model or deployment methodology. A literature review is conducted to classify the Lean performance model. Pareto analysis is used to select the Lean constructs for the development of the model. The model is further formalized through the use of Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) in defining the underlying latent structure of a Lean system. An impact assessment measurement model developed can be used to measure Lean performance and can be adopted by different industries.

Keywords: impact measurement model, lean bundles, lean manufacturing, organizational performance

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Authors: Wen-Yuh Jywe, Bor-Jeng Lin, Jing-Chung Shen, Jeng-Dao Lee, Hsueh-Liang Huang, Tung-Hsien Hsieh

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In this study, a simple 2-D measurement system based on optical design was developed to measure the motion errors of the linear guideway. Compared with the transitional methods about the linear guideway for measuring the motion errors, our proposed 2-D optical measurement system can simultaneously measure horizontal and vertical running straightness errors for the linear guideway. The performance of the 2-D optical measurement system is verified by experimental results. The standard deviation of the 2-D optical measurement system is about 0.4 μm in the measurement range of 100 mm. The maximum measuring speed of the proposed automatic measurement instrument is 1 m/sec.

Keywords: 2-D measurement, linear guideway, motion errors, running straightness

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Authors: M. M. Hlakola, E. Golovins, D. V. Nicolae

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The field of instrumentation electronics is undergoing an explosive growth, due to its wide range of applications. The proliferation of electrical devices in a close working proximity can negatively influence each other’s performance. The degradation in the performance is due to electromagnetic interference (EMI). This paper investigates the negative effects of electromagnetic interference originating in the General Purpose Interface Bus (GPIB) control-network of the ac-dc transfer measurement system. Remedial measures of reducing measurement errors and failure of range of industrial devices due to EMI have been explored. The ac-dc transfer measurement system was analyzed for the common-mode (CM) EMI effects. Further investigation of coupling path as well as more accurate identification of noise propagation mechanism has been outlined. To prevent the occurrence of common-mode (ground loops) which was identified between the GPIB system control circuit and the measurement circuit, a microcontroller-driven GPIB switching isolator device was designed, prototyped, programmed and validated. This mitigation technique has been explored to reduce EMI effectively.

Keywords: CM, EMI, GPIB, ground loops

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Authors: V. V. Singh

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In this paper we have focused on the study of a Linux operating system connected in a LAN (local area network). We have considered two different topologies STAR topology (subsystem-1) and BUS topology (subsystem-2) which are placed at two different places and connected to a server through a hub. In both topologies BUS topology and STAR topology, we have assumed 'n' clients. The system has two types of failure partial failure and complete failure. Further the partial failure has been categorized as minor partial failure and major partial failure. It is assumed that minor partial failure degrades the subsystem and the major partial failure brings the subsystem to break down mode. The system can completely failed due to failure of server hacking and blocking etc. The system is studied by supplementary variable technique and Laplace transform by taking different types of failure and two types of repairs. The various measures of reliability like availability of system, MTTF, profit function for different parametric values has been discussed.

Keywords: star topology, bus topology, hacking, blocking, linux operating system, Gumbel-Hougaard family copula, supplementary variable

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Authors: J. H. Lv, W. Z. Wang, S.W. Liu

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The major concern in the aviation industry is the flight safety. Although great effort has been put onto the development of material and system reliability, the failure cases of fatal accidents still occur nowadays. Due to the complexity of the aviation system, and the interaction among the failure components, the failure analysis of the related equipment is a little difficult. This study focuses on surveying the failure cases in aviation, which are extracted from failure analysis journals, including Engineering Failure Analysis and Case studies in Engineering Failure Analysis, in order to obtain the failure sensitive factors or failure sensitive parts. The analytical results show that, among the failure cases, fatigue failure is the largest in number of occurrence. The most failed components are the disk, blade, landing gear, bearing, and fastener. The frequently failed materials consist of steel, aluminum alloy, superalloy, and titanium alloy. Therefore, in order to assure the safety in aviation, more attention should be paid to the fatigue failures.

Keywords: aerospace, disk, failure analysis, fatigue

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Authors: Deepak Raj Bhat, Ryuichi Yatabe

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In this study, a residual-state creep failure model was developed based on the residual-state creep test results of clayey soils. To develop the proposed model, the regression analyses were done by using the R. The model results of the failure time (tf) and critical displacement (δc) were compared with experimental results and found in close agreements to each others. It is expected that the proposed regression model for residual-state creep failure will be more useful for the prediction of displacement of different clayey soils in the future.

Keywords: regression model, residual-state creep failure, displacement prediction, clayey soils

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Authors: Vijay Vir Singh

Abstract:

This work is focused studying the Linux operating system connected in a LAN (local area network). The STAR topology (to be called subsystem-1) and BUS topology (to be called subsystem-2) are taken into account, which are placed at two different locations and connected to a server through a hub. In the both topologies BUS topology and STAR topology, we have assumed n clients. The system has two types of failures i.e. partial failure and complete failure. Further, the partial failure has been categorized as minor and major partial failure. It is assumed that the minor partial failure degrades the sub-systems and the major partial failure make the subsystem break down mode. The system may completely fail due to failure of server hacking and blocking etc. The system is studied using supplementary variable technique and Laplace transform by using different types of failure and two types of repair. The various measures of reliability for example, availability of system, reliability of system, MTTF, profit function for different parametric values have been discussed.

Keywords: star topology, bus topology, blocking, hacking, Linux operating system, Gumbel-Hougaard family copula, supplementary variable

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Authors: Daehyun Baek, Seungmin Lee, Minju Kim Jangik Park, Hyeong-Soon Moon

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SPM (Single Point Mooring) is one of the mooring buoy facilities installed on a coast near oil and gas terminal which is not able to berth FPSO or large oil tankers under the condition of high draft due to geometrical limitation. Loading and unloading of crude oil and gas through a subsea pipeline can be carried out between the mooring buoy, ships and onshore facilities. SPM is an offshore-standalone system which has to withstand the harsh marine environment with harsh conditions such as high wind, current and so on. Therefore, SPM is required to have high stability, reliability and durability. Also, SPM is comprised to be integrated systems which consist of power management, high pressure valve control, sophisticated hardware/software and a long distance communication system. In order to secure required functions of SPM system, a simulation model for the integrated system of SPM using MATLAB Simulink and State flow tool has been developed. The developed model consists of configuration of hydraulic system for opening and closing of PLEM (Pipeline End Manifold) valves and control system logic. To verify functions of the model, an integrated simulation model for overall systems of SPM was also developed by considering handshaking variables between individual systems. In addition to the dynamic model, a self-diagnostic function to determine failure of the system was configured, which enables the SPM system itself to alert users about the failure once a failure signal comes to arise. Controlling and monitoring the SPM system is able to be done by a HMI system which is capable of managing the SPM system remotely, which was carried out by building a communication environment between the SPM system and the HMI system.

Keywords: HMI system, mooring buoy, simulink simulation model, single point mooring, stateflow

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Authors: Lela Mirtskhulava, Mariam Khunjgurua, Nino Lomineishvili, Koba Bakuria

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Software reliability prediction gives a great opportunity to measure the software failure rate at any point throughout system test. A software reliability prediction model provides with the technique for improving reliability. Software reliability is very important factor for estimating overall system reliability, which depends on the individual component reliabilities. It differs from hardware reliability in that it reflects the design perfection. Main reason of software reliability problems is high complexity of software. Various approaches can be used to improve the reliability of software. We focus on software reliability model in this article, assuming that there is a time redundancy, the value of which (the number of repeated transmission of basic blocks) can be an optimization parameter. We consider given mathematical model in the assumption that in the system may occur not only irreversible failures, but also a failure that can be taken as self-repairing failures that significantly affect the reliability and accuracy of information transfer. Main task of the given paper is to find a time distribution function (DF) of instructions sequence transmission, which consists of random number of basic blocks. We consider the system software unreliable; the time between adjacent failures has exponential distribution.

Keywords: exponential distribution, conditional mean time to failure, distribution function, mathematical model, software reliability

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Authors: Min-Tsai Lai, Taqwa Hariguna

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This paper presents a periodical replacement model for a system, considering the concept of single and cumulative repair cost limits simultaneously. The failures are divided into two types. Minor failure can be corrected by minimal repair and serious failure makes the system breakdown completely. When a minor failure occurs, if the repair cost is less than a single repair cost limit L1 and the accumulated repair cost is less than a cumulative repair cost limit L2, then minimal repair is executed, otherwise, the system is preventively replaced. The system is also replaced at time T or at serious failure. The optimal period T minimizing the long-run expected cost per unit time is verified to be finite and unique under some specific conditions.

Keywords: repair-cost limit, cumulative repair-cost limit, minimal repair, periodical replacement policy

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Authors: A. Elmikaty, Z. Thanawarothon, L. Mezeix

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This paper presents a finite element model to simulate the teeth failure of non-circular composite chainring. Model consists of the chainring and a part of the chain. To reduce the size of the model, only the first 11 rollers are simulated. In order to validate the model, it is firstly applied to a circular aluminum chainring and evolution of the stress in the teeth is compared with the literature. Then, effect of the non-circular shape is studied through three different loading positions. Strength of non-circular composite chainring and failure scenario is investigated. Moreover, two composite lay-ups are proposed to observe the influence of the stacking. Results show that composite material can be used but the lay-up has a large influence on the strength. Finally, loading position does not have influence on the first composite failure that always occurs in the first tooth.

Keywords: CFRP, composite failure, FEA, non-circular chainring

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Authors: Paul Han, Jun-Geol Baek

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In the flat panel display industry, the scheduler and dispatching system to meet production target quantities and the deadline of production are the major production management system which controls each facility production order and distribution of WIP (Work in Process). In dispatching system, delivery time is a key factor for the time when a lot can be supplied to the facility. In this paper, we use survival analysis methods to identify main factors and a forecasting model of delivery time. Of survival analysis techniques to select important explanatory variables, the cox proportional hazard model is used to. To make a prediction model, the Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) model was used. Performance comparisons were conducted with two other models, which are the technical statistics model based on transfer history and the linear regression model using same explanatory variables with AFT model. As a result, the Mean Square Error (MSE) criteria, the AFT model decreased by 33.8% compared to the existing prediction model, decreased by 5.3% compared to the linear regression model. This survival analysis approach is applicable to implementing a delivery time estimator in display manufacturing. And it can contribute to improve the productivity and reliability of production management system.

Keywords: delivery time, survival analysis, Cox PH model, accelerated failure time model

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Authors: A. T. Kuda, J. J. Dayya, A. Jimoh

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This paper investigates the fault detection and Isolation technique of measurement data sets from a three tank system using analytical model-based temporal redundancy which is based on residual generation using parity equations/space approach. It further briefly outlines other approaches of model-based residual generation. The basic idea of parity space residual generation in temporal redundancy is dynamic relationship between sensor outputs and actuator inputs (input-output model). These residuals where then used to detect whether or not the system is faulty and indicate the location of the fault when it is faulty. The method obtains good results by detecting and isolating faults from the considered data sets measurements generated from the system.

Keywords: fault detection, fault isolation, disturbing influences, system failure, parity equation/relation, structured parity equations

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Authors: Alpesh Adeshara, Rajendrasinh Jadeja, Praghnesh Bhatt

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Implementation of advanced technologies requires sophisticated instruments that deal with the operation, control, restoration and protection of rapidly growing power system network under normal and abnormal conditions. Presently, the applications of Phasor Measurement Unit (PMU) are widely found in real time operation, monitoring, controlling and analysis of power system network as it eliminates the various limitations of Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition System (SCADA) conventionally used in power system. The use of PMU data is very rapidly increasing its importance for online and offline analysis. Wide Area Measurement System (WAMS) is developed as new technology by use of multiple PMUs in power system. The present paper proposes a model of MATLAB based PMU using Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT) algorithm and evaluation of its operation under different contingencies. In this paper, PMU based two bus system having WAMS network is presented as a case study.

Keywords: GPS global positioning system, PMU phasor measurement system, WAMS wide area monitoring system, DFT, PDC

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Authors: Ariful Islam, Showkat Ahmad Lone

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The Mukherjee-Islam Model is commonly used as a simple life time distribution to assess system reliability. The model exhibits a better fit for failure information and provides more appropriate information about hazard rate and other reliability measures as shown by various authors. It is possible to introduce a location parameter at a time (i.e., a time before which failure cannot occur) which makes it a more useful failure distribution than the existing ones. Even after shifting the location of the distribution, it represents a decreasing, constant and increasing failure rate. It has been shown to represent the appropriate lower tail of the distribution of random variables having fixed lower bound. This study presents the reliability computations and probability weighted moment estimation of three parameter model. A comparative analysis is carried out between three parameters finite range model and some existing bathtub shaped curve fitting models. Since probability weighted moment method is used, the results obtained can also be applied on small sample cases. Maximum likelihood estimation method is also applied in this study.

Keywords: comparative analysis, maximum likelihood estimation, Mukherjee-Islam failure model, probability weighted moment estimation, reliability

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Authors: Guoliang Fan, Aiping Li, Xuemei Liu, Liyun Xu

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The performance of the tightening equipment will decline with the working process in manufacturing system. The main manifestations are the randomness and discretization degree increasing of the tightening performance. To evaluate the degradation tendency of the tightening performance accurately, a complexity measurement approach based on Kolmogorov entropy is presented. At first, the states of performance index are divided for calibrating the discrete degree. Then the complexity measurement model based on Kolmogorov entropy is built. The model describes the performance degradation tendency of tightening equipment quantitatively. At last, a study case is applied for verifying the efficiency and validity of the approach. The research achievement shows that the presented complexity measurement can effectively evaluate the degradation tendency of the tightening equipment. It can provide theoretical basis for preventive maintenance and life prediction of equipment.

Keywords: complexity measurement, Kolmogorov entropy, manufacturing system, performance evaluation, tightening equipment

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Authors: Reni M. Sagayaraj, Anand Gnana S. Selvam, Reynald R. Susainathan

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In this paper, we consider stochastic queueing models for Steady-state behavior of a multi-phase M/M/1 queue in random evolution subject to catastrophe failure. The arrival flow of customers is described by a marked Markovian arrival process. The service times of different type customers have a phase-type distribution with different parameters. To facilitate the investigation of the system we use a generalized phase-type service time distribution. This model contains a repair state, when a catastrophe occurs the system is transferred to the failure state. The paper focuses on the steady-state equation, and observes that, the steady-state behavior of the underlying queueing model along with the average queue size is analyzed.

Keywords: M/G/1 queuing system, multi-phase, random evolution, steady-state equation, catastrophe failure

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Authors: Chin-Chih Chang

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Many manufacturing systems suffer failures due to complex degradation processes and various environment conditions such as random shocks. Consider an operating system is subject to random shocks and works at random times for successive jobs. When successive jobs often result in production losses and performance deterioration, it would be better to do maintenance or replacement at a planned time. A preventive replacement (PR) policy is presented to replace the system before a failure occurs at a continuous time T. In such a policy, the failure characteristics of the system are designed as follows. Each job would cause a random amount of additive damage to the system, and the system fails when the cumulative damage has exceeded a failure threshold. Suppose that the deteriorating system suffers one of the two types of shocks with age-dependent probabilities: type-I (minor) shock is rectified by a minimal repair, or type-II (catastrophic) shock causes the system to fail. A corrective replacement (CR) is performed immediately when the system fails. In summary, a generalized maintenance model to scheduling replacement plan for an operating system is presented below. PR is carried out at time T, whereas CR is carried out when any type-II shock occurs and the total damage exceeded a failure level. The main objective is to determine the optimal continuous schedule time of preventive replacement through minimizing the mean cost rate function. The existence and uniqueness of optimal replacement policy are derived analytically. It can be seen that the present model is a generalization of the previous models, and the policy with preventive replacement outperforms the one without preventive replacement.

Keywords: preventive replacement, working time, cumulative damage model, minimal repair, imperfect maintenance, optimization

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Authors: Fariba Azizi, Firoozeh Haghighi, Viliam Makis

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In this paper, we propose a method to model the relationship between failure time and degradation for a simple step stress test where underlying degradation path is linear and different causes of failure are possible. It is assumed that the intensity function depends only on the degradation value. No assumptions are made about the distribution of the failure times. A simple step-stress test is used to shorten failure time of products and a tampered failure rate (TFR) model is proposed to describe the effect of the changing stress on the intensities. We assume that some of the products that fail during the test have a cause of failure that is only known to belong to a certain subset of all possible failures. This case is known as masking. In the presence of masking, the maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) of the model parameters are obtained through an expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm by treating the causes of failure as missing values. The effect of incomplete information on the estimation of parameters is studied through a Monte-Carlo simulation. Finally, a real example is analyzed to illustrate the application of the proposed methods.

Keywords: cause of failure, linear degradation path, reliability function, expectation-maximization algorithm, intensity, masked data

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Authors: Soroor K. H. Al-Khafaji, Manal Mohammad Abed

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The research aim of this paper is to evaluate the reliability of a complex engineering system and to design a fuzzy model for the reliability estimation. The designed model has been applied on Vegetable Oil Purification System (neutralization system) to help the specialist user based on the concept of FMEA (Failure Mode and Effect Analysis) to estimate the reliability of the repairable system at the vegetable oil industry. The fuzzy model has been used to predict the system reliability for a future time period, depending on a historical database for the two past years. The model can help to specify the system malfunctions and to predict its reliability during a future period in more accurate and reasonable results compared with the results obtained by the traditional method of reliability estimation.

Keywords: fuzzy logic, reliability, repairable systems, FMEA

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Authors: F. Sangiorgio, J. Silfwerbrand, G. Mancini

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Geometric and mechanical properties all influence the resistance of RC structures and may, in certain combination of property values, increase the risk of a brittle failure of the whole system. This paper presents a statistical and probabilistic investigation on the resistance of RC beams designed according to Eurocodes 2 and 8, and subjected to multiple failure modes, under both the natural variation of material properties and the uncertainty associated with cross-section and transverse reinforcement geometry. A full probabilistic model based on JCSS Probabilistic Model Code is derived. Different beams are studied through material nonlinear analysis via Monte Carlo simulations. The resistance model is consistent with Eurocode 2. Both a multivariate statistical evaluation and the data clustering analysis of outcomes are then performed. Results show that the ultimate load behaviour of RC beams subjected to flexural and shear failure modes seems to be mainly influenced by the combination of the mechanical properties of both longitudinal reinforcement and stirrups, and the tensile strength of concrete, of which the latter appears to affect the overall response of the system in a nonlinear way. The model uncertainty of the resistance model used in the analysis plays undoubtedly an important role in interpreting results.

Keywords: modelling, Monte Carlo simulations, probabilistic models, data clustering, reinforced concrete members, structural design

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