Search results for: likelihood estimation method

Authors: Mishari AlNaim

Abstract:

A field experiment was conducted for two seasons of 2011 and 2012 in The Agricultural Experiment Research Station in King Faisal University at Al-Hasa region, Saudi Arabia to estimate evapotranspiration (ETC) of Eggplant crop using Drainage Lysimeter with surface area of 2 x 2 m and depth of 1.5 m. The irrigation was applied daily. The amount of drainage was measured before each irrigation event. The results showed that there was almost no difference in the seasonal evapotranspiration of eggplant crop in the two seasons. The average evapotranspiration values for eggplant crop for the summer and winter seasons were 823.4 mm and 479.7 mm respectively. The highest and the lowest weekly measured values of (ETC) of eggplant crop during the two summer seasons were 8.6 mm/day and 3.9 mm/day respectively, while the highest and lowest weekly measured values of (ETC) of eggplant crop during the two winter seasons were 3.9 mm/day and 2.0 mm/day respectively. The measured values of ETc, in conjunction with the results of Penmen-Monteith equation for reference Evapotranspiration (ETR), were used to determine the crop coefficient (KC ini, KC mid and KC end) for eggplant crop. The average values were 0.50, 84 and 0.60 for KC ini, KC mid and KC end in Al-Hasa region, respectively. These estimated values for KC were used to approximate (ETc) for eggplant crop. High positive correlation coefficient (0.959) was detected between the approximated and measured values of eggplant crop evapotranspiration.

Keywords: evapotranspiration, eggpant, ETC, Al-Hasa

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Authors: Thomas Nally, Jane Ireland, Roxanne Khan, Philip Birch

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Intimate Partner Violence (IPV), a significant societal problem, affects individuals worldwide. However, the strategies victims use to keep safe are under-researched. IPV is significantly under-reported, and services often are not able to be accessed by all victims. Thus they are likely to use their own strategies to manage their victimization before being able to seek support. Two studies were completed to understand these strategies. A systematic review of the literature and study completed with professionals who work with victims was undertaken to understand this area. In study one, a systematic review of the literature (n=61 papers), were analyzed using Thematic Analysis. The results indicated that victims use a large array of behaviors to increase their sense of safety and coping with emotions but also experience significant barriers to help-seeking. In study 2, sixty-nine professionals completed a measure exploring the likelihood and effectiveness of various victim strategies regarding increasing their sense of safety. Strategies included in the measure were obtained from those identified in study 1. Findings indicated that professionals perceived victims of IPV to be more likely to employ safety strategies and coping behaviors that may be ineffective but not help-seeking behaviors. Further, the responses were analyzed using Cluster Analysis. Safety strategies resulted in five clusters; perpetrator-directed strategies, prevention strategies, cognitive reappraisal, safety planning and avoidance strategies. Help-Seeking resulted in six clusters; information or practical support, abuse-related support, emotional support, secondary support and informal support. Finally, coping resulted in four clusters; emotional coping, self-directed coping, thought recording/change and cognitive coping. Both studies indicate that victims may use a variety of strategies to manage their safety besides seeking help. Professionals working with victims, using a strength-based approach, should understand what is used and is effective for victims who are unable to leave the relationships or access external support.

Keywords: intimate partner violence, help-seeking, professional support, victims, victim coping, victim safety

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Authors: Ionel D. Craiu, Mihai Nedelcu

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Thin-walled cylinders are often used by the offshore industry as columns of floating installations. Based on observed strains, the inverse Finite Element Method (iFEM) may rebuild the deformation of structures. Structural Health Monitoring uses this approach extensively. However, the number of in-situ strain gauges is what determines how accurate it is, and for shell structures with complicated deformation, this number can easily become too high for practical use. Any thin-walled beam member's complicated deformation can be modeled by the Generalized Beam Theory (GBT) as a linear combination of pre-specified cross-section deformation modes. GBT uses bar finite elements as opposed to shell finite elements. This paper proposes an iFEM/GBT formulation for the shape sensing of thin-walled cylinders based on these benefits. This method significantly reduces the number of strain gauges compared to using the traditional inverse-shell finite elements. Using numerical simulations, dent damage detection is achieved by comparing the strain distributions of the undamaged and damaged members. The effect of noise on strain measurements is also investigated.

Keywords: damage detection, generalized beam theory, inverse finite element method, shape sensing

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Authors: Zoliana Bawitlung, P. C. Rohmingliana, L. Z. Chhangte, Remlal Siama, Hming Chungnunga, Vanram Lawma, L. Hnamte, B. K. Sahoo, B. K. Sapra, J. Malsawma

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Mizoram state has the highest lung cancer incidence rate in India due to its high-level consumption of tobacco and its products which is supplemented by the food habits. While smoking is mainly responsible for this incidence, the effect of inhalation of indoor radon gas cannot be discarded as the hazardous nature of this radioactive gas and its progenies on human population have been well-established worldwide where the radiation damage to bronchial cells eventually can be the second leading cause of lung cancer next to smoking. It is also known that the effect of radiation, however, small may be the concentration, cannot be neglected as they can bring about the risk of cancer incidence. Hence, estimation of indoor radon concentration is important to give a useful reference against radiation effects as well as establishing its safety measures and to create a baseline for further case-control studies. The indoor radon/thoron concentrations in Mizoram had been measured in 41 dwellings selected on the basis of spot gamma background radiation and construction type of the houses during 2015-2016. The dwellings were monitored for one year, in 4 months cycles to indicate seasonal variations, for the indoor concentration of radon gas and its progenies, outdoor gamma dose, and indoor gamma dose respectively. A time-integrated method using Solid State Nuclear Track Detector (SSNTD) based single entry pin-hole dosimeters were used for measurement of indoor Radon/Thoron concentration. Gamma dose measurements for indoor as well as outdoor were carried out using Geiger Muller survey meters. Seasonal variation of indoor radon/ thoron concentration was monitored. The results show that the annual average radon concentrations varied from 54.07 – 144.72 Bq/m³ with an average of 90.20 Bq/m³ and the annual average thoron concentration varied from 17.39 – 54.19 Bq/m³ with an average of 35.91 Bq/m³ which are below the permissible limit. The spot survey of gamma background radiation level varies between 9 to 24 µR/h inside and outside the dwellings throughout Mizoram which are all within acceptable limits. From the above results, there is no direct indication that radon/thoron is responsible for the high lung cancer incidence in the area. In order to find epidemiological evidence of natural radiations to high cancer incidence in the area, one may need to conduct a case-control study which is beyond this scope. However, the derived data of measurement will provide baseline data for further studies.

Keywords: background gamma radiation, indoor radon/thoron, lung cancer, seasonal variation

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Authors: Seon Soon Choi

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It is necessary to predict a fatigue crack propagation life for estimation of structural integrity. Because of an uncertainty and a randomness of a structural behavior, it is also required to analyze stochastic characteristics of the fatigue crack propagation life at a specified fatigue crack size. The essential purpose of this study is to present the good probability distribution fit for the fatigue crack propagation life at a specified fatigue crack size in magnesium alloys under various fatigue load ratio conditions. To investigate a stochastic crack growth behavior, fatigue crack propagation experiments are performed in laboratory air under several conditions of fatigue load ratio using AZ31. By Anderson-Darling test, a goodness-of-fit test for probability distribution of the fatigue crack propagation life is performed and the good probability distribution fit for the fatigue crack propagation life is presented. The effect of load ratio on variability of fatigue crack propagation life is also investigated.

Keywords: fatigue crack propagation life, load ratio, magnesium alloys, probability distribution

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Authors: Alexander David Natanson

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This paper focuses on the effect of Sanctuary and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) policies on local economies. "Sanctuary cities" refers to municipal jurisdictions that limit their cooperation with the federal government's efforts to enforce immigration. Using county-level data from the American Community Survey and ICE data on economic indicators from 2006 to 2018, this study isolates the effects of local immigration policies on U.S. counties. The investigation is accomplished by simultaneously studying the policies' effects in counties where immigrants' families are persecuted via collaboration with Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), in contrast to counties that provide protections. The analysis includes a difference-in-difference & two-way fixed effect model. Results are robust to nearest-neighbor matching, after the random assignment of treatment, after running estimations using different cutoffs for immigration policies, and with a regression discontinuity model comparing bordering counties with opposite policies. Results are also robust after restricting the data to a single-year policy adoption, using the Sun and Abraham estimator, and with event-study estimation to deal with the staggered treatment issue. In addition, the study reverses the estimation to understand what drives the decision to choose policies to detect the presence of reverse causality biases in the estimated policy impact on economic factors. The evidence demonstrates that providing protections to undocumented immigrants increases economic activity. The estimates show gains in per capita income ranging from 3.1 to 7.2, median wages between 1.7 to 2.6, and GDP between 2.4 to 4.1 percent. Regarding labor, sanctuary counties saw increases in total employment between 2.3 to 4 percent, and the unemployment rate declined from 12 to 17 percent. The data further shows that ICE policies have no statistically significant effects on income, median wages, or GDP but adverse effects on total employment, with declines from 1 to 2 percent, mostly in rural counties, and an increase in unemployment of around 7 percent in urban counties. In addition, results show a decline in the foreign-born population in ICE counties but no changes in sanctuary counties. The study also finds similar results for sanctuary counties when separating the data between urban, rural, educational attainment, gender, ethnic groups, economic quintiles, and the number of business establishments. The takeaway from this study is that institutional inclusion creates the dynamic nature of an economy, as inclusion allows for economic expansion due to the extension of fundamental freedoms to newcomers. Inclusive policies show positive effects on economic outcomes with no evident increase in population. To make sense of these results, the hypothesis and theoretical model propose that inclusive immigration policies play an essential role in conditioning the effect of immigration by decreasing uncertainties and constraints for immigrants' interaction in their communities, decreasing the cost from fear of deportation or the constant fear of criminalization and optimize their human capital.

Keywords: inclusive and exclusive institutions, post matching, fixed effect, time trend, regression discontinuity, difference-in-difference, randomization inference and sun, Abraham estimator

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Authors: M. Sasajima, M. Watanabe, T. Yamaguchi Y. Kurosawa, Y. Koike

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In very narrow pathways, the speed of sound propagation and the phase of sound waves change due to the air viscosity. We have developed a new Finite Element Method (FEM) that includes the effects of air viscosity for modeling a narrow sound pathway. This method is developed as an extension of the existing FEM for porous sound-absorbing materials. The numerical calculation results for several three-dimensional slit models using the proposed FEM are validated against existing calculation methods.

Keywords: simulation, FEM, air viscosity, slit

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Authors: Iva Nedelcheva

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This study is part of a doctoral thesis on the topic of Hyperfiction: Past, Present and Future of Storytelling through Hypertext. It explores in depth the impact of transmedia storytelling and the role of hypertext in the realm of the currently popular social media phenomenon Pokémon GO. Storytelling is a powerful method to engage and unite people. Moreover, the technology progress adds a whole new angle to the method, with hypertext and cross-platform sharing that enhance the traditional storytelling so much that transmedia storytelling gives unlimited opportunities to affect the everyday life of people across the globe. This research aims at examining the transmedia storytelling approach in Pokémon GO, and explaining how that contributed to its establishment as a massive worldwide hit in less than a week. The social engagement is investigated in all major media platforms, including traditional and online media channels. Observation and content analyses are reported in this paper to form the conclusion that transmedia storytelling with the input of hypertext has a promising future as a method of establishing a productive and rewarding communication strategy.

Keywords: communication, hypertext, Pokemon Go, storytelling, transmedia

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Authors: Pranita Shivankar, Arun Suryawanshi, Prabodhachandra Deshmukh, S. V. C. Kameswara Rao

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Many undesirable significant changes in landscapes and the regions in the vicinity of historically important structures occur as impacts due to anthropogenic activities over a period of time. A better understanding of such influences using recently developed satellite remote sensing techniques helps in planning the strategies for minimizing the negative impacts on the existing environment. In 1982, a fossilized hominid skull cap was discovered at a site located along the northern bank of the east-west flowing river Narmada in the village Hathnora. Close to the same site, the presence of Late Acheulian and Middle Palaeolithic tools have been discovered in the immediately overlying pebbly gravel, suggesting that the ‘Narmada skull’ may be from the Middle Pleistocene age. The reviews of recently carried out research studies relevant to hominid remains all over the world from Late Acheulian and Middle Palaeolithic sites suggest succession and contemporaneity of cultures there, enhancing the importance of Hathnora as a rare precious site. In this context, the maximum likelihood classification using digital interpretation techniques was carried out for this study area using the satellite imagery from Landsat ETM+ for the year 2006 and Landsat TM (OLI and TIRS) for the year 2016. The overall accuracy of Land Use Land Cover (LULC) classification of 2016 imagery was around 77.27% based on ground truth data. The significant reduction in the main river course and agricultural activities and increase in the built-up area observed in remote sensing data analysis are undoubtedly the outcome of human encroachments in the vicinity of the eminent heritage site.

Keywords: cultural succession, digital interpretation, Hathnora, Homo Sapiens, Late Acheulian, Middle Palaeolithic

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Authors: Raphaël Menard, Etienne Fayette, Paul Azzopardi

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This paper presents the method to generate the geometry of an actual glass canopy project in Rennes, France, by architect Bruno Gaudin, with aim to achieve the best structural efficiency possible using only quadrangle meshing. The paper includes equation of the translational surface generated, the level of accuracy in approximating the funicular shape and the method of constructive implementation.

Keywords: funicular shape, glass canopy, glass panels, lowered arches, mathematics, penalization, shell structure

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Authors: Wangshi Yong, Wei Shi, Jing Zou, Qiang Li, Yilin Tian

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With the advancement of the reform of China’s housing security system, the impact is becoming increasingly profound. This paper explores the relationship between the housing security system and household entrepreneurship on the 2017 China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) and conducts a large number of robustness checks, including PSM and IV estimation. The results show that the assistance of the housing security system will significantly promote family entrepreneurship, increasing the probability of entrepreneurship by 2%. Its internal mechanism is mainly achieved by relaxing liquidity constraints and increasing household social capital. However, the risk preference effect has not existed. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the positive impact of the housing security system on family entrepreneurship is mainly reflected in areas with high housing prices and incomes, as well as households with long-term security and social or commercial insurance. Meanwhile, it also verifies that the positive externalities of the housing security system will also positively affect active entrepreneurial motivation, entrepreneurial intensity, and entrepreneurial innovation.

Keywords: the housing security system, household entrepreneurship, social capital, liquidity constraints, risk preference

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Authors: A. D. Parekh

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The present work describes relative contributions of operating parameters on required heat transfer area of three heat exchangers viz. evaporator, condenser and cascade condenser of two stage R404A-R508B cascade refrigeration system using Taguchi method. The operating parameters considered in present study includes (1) condensing temperature of high temperature cycle and low temperature cycle (2) evaporating temperature of low temperature cycle (3) degree of superheating in low temperature cycle (4) refrigerating effect. Heat transfer areas of three heat exchangers are studied with variation of above operating parameters and also optimum working levels of each operating parameter has been obtained for minimum heat transfer area of each heat exchanger using Taguchi method. The analysis using Taguchi method reveals that evaporating temperature of low temperature cycle and refrigerating effect contribute relatively largely on the area of evaporator. Condenser area is mainly influenced by both condensing temperature of high temperature cycle and refrigerating effect. Area of cascade condenser is mainly affected by refrigerating effect and the effects of other operating parameters are minimal.

Keywords: cascade refrigeration system, Taguchi method, heat transfer area, ANOVA, optimal solution

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Authors: Valerian Omsarashvili, Nino Jamrishvili

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Georgia is one of the hail-dangerous countries of world. The work on action on hail processes in Georgia was conducted in 1960-1989 (East Georgia) over the total area of approximately 1.2 million hectares with average positive economic effect near 75 %. In 2015 in East Georgia, the anti-hail service was restored. Therefore, for the estimation of the effectiveness of action on the hail processes at present, arose the need for the detailed analysis of damage from the hail in the past. The work presents the analysis of the data about the number of days with the hail, the areas of damage of agricultural crops (general and to 100 %), and also the economic damage from the hail, of the caused loss to agricultural crops on the territories land of 123 separate populated areas of into 1982 and 1984-1989. In particular, on the average to one populated area, the total area of agricultural crops damaged from the hail was approximately 140 hectares, to 100% damage - 60 hectares, economic damage - 120 thousand US dollars. The corresponding maps of the distribution of the damaged areas on the investigated territory with the use of GIS-technologies are obtained.

Keywords: damage to agricultural crops, hail, Georgia, economic damage

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Authors: A. M. Gheitaghy, H. Saffari, G. Q. Zhang

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Numerical approach based on the electrical simulation method is proposed to solve a nonlinear transient heat conduction problem with nonlinear boundary for a spherical body. This problem represents a strong nonlinearity in both the governing equation for temperature dependent thermal property and the boundary condition for combined convective and radiative cooling. By analysing the equivalent electrical model using the electrical circuit simulation program HSPICE, transient temperature and heat flux distributions at sphere can be obtained easily and fast. The solutions clearly illustrate the effect of the radiation-conduction parameter Nrc, the Biot number and the linear coefficient of temperature dependent conductivity and heat capacity. On comparing the results with corresponding numerical solutions, the accuracy and efficiency of this computational method are found to be good.

Keywords: convective and radiative boundary, electrical simulation method, nonlinear heat conduction, spherical coordinate

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Authors: Pitak Keawbunsong, Sathaporn Promwong

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This paper presents an investigation on the efficiency of the optimized Davison path loss model in order to look for a suitable path loss model to design and planning DTTV propagation for small and medium urban areas in southern Thailand. Hadyai City in Songkla Province is chosen as the case study to collect the analytical data on the electric field strength. The optimization is conducted through the least square method while the efficiency index is through the statistical value of relative error (RE). The result of the least square method is the offset and slop of the frequency to be used in the optimized process. The statistical result shows that RE of the old Davidson model is at the least when being compared with the optimized Davison and the Hata models. Thus, the old Davison path loss model is the most accurate that further becomes the most optimized for the plan on the propagation network design.

Keywords: DTTV propagation, path loss model, Davidson model, least square method

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Authors: Svetlana V. Topolyanskaya, Tatyana A. Eliseeva, Olga N. Vakulenko, Leonid I. Dvoretski

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Introduction: Limited data are available on osteoporosis in centenarians. Therefore, we evaluated bone mineral density in long-living patients with coronary artery disease (CAD). Methods: 202 patients hospitalized with CAD were enrolled in this cross-sectional study. The patients' age ranged from 90 to 101 years. The majority of study participants (64.4%) were women. The main exclusion criteria were any disease or medication that can lead to secondary osteoporosis. Bone mineral density (BMD) was measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Results: Normal lumbar spine BMD was observed in 40.9%, osteoporosis – in 26.9%, osteopenia – in 32.2% of patients. Normal proximal femur BMD values were observed in 21.3%, osteoporosis – in 39.9%, and osteopenia – in 38.8% of patients. Normal femoral neck BMD was registered only in 10.4% of patients, osteoporosis was observed in 60.4%, osteopenia in 29.2%. Significant positive correlation was found between all BMD values and body mass index of patients (p < 0.001). Positive correlation was registered between BMD values and serum uric acid (p=0.0005). The likelihood of normal BMD values with hyperuricemia increased 3.8 times, compared to patients with normal uric acid, who often have osteoporosis (Odds Ratio=3.84; p = 0.009). Positive correlation was registered between all BMD values and body mass index (p < 0.001). Positive correlation between triglycerides levels and T-score (p=0.02), but negative correlation between BMD and HDL-cholesterol (p=0.02) were revealed. Negative correlation between frailty severity and BMD values (p=0.01) was found. Positive correlation between BMD values and functional abilities of patients assessed using Barthel index (r=0,44; p=0,000002) and IADL scale (r=0,36; p=0,00008) was registered. Fractures in history were observed in 27.6% of patients. Conclusions: The study results indicate some features of BMD in long-livers. In the study group, significant relationships were found between bone mineral density on the one hand, and patients' functional abilities on the other. It is advisable to further study the state of bone tissue in long-livers involving a large sample of patients.

Keywords: osteoporosis, bone mineral density, centenarians, coronary artery disease

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Authors: Pablo Lopez Hurtado, Antroine Rouilly, Virginie Vandenbossche

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Cellulose fibre insulation is an eco-friendly building material made from recycled paper fibres, treated with borates for fungal and fire resistance. It is comparable in terms of thermal and acoustic performance to mineral wool insulation and other insulation materials based on non-renewable resources. The main method of application consists in separating and blowing the fibres in attics or closed wall cavities. Another method, known as the “wet spray method” is gaining interest. With this method the fibres are projected with pulverized water, which stick to the wall cavities. The issue with the wet spray technique is that the water dosage could be difficult to control. A high water dosage implies not only a longer drying time, depending on ambient conditions, but also a change in the performance of the material itself. In our work we studied the thermal and mechanical properties of wet spray-cellulose insulation in order to understand how water dosage could affect these properties. The material was first characterized to study the chemical and physical properties of the fibres. Then representative samples of wet sprayed cellulose with varying applied water dosage were subject to thermal conductivity and compression testing in order to better understand how changes in the fibres induced by drying can affect these properties.

Keywords: cellulose fibre, recycled paper, moisture sorption, thermal insulation

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Authors: Tahere Fazilat

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Caspian red deer or maral (Cervus elaphus maral) is the largest type of deer in iran. Maral in the past has lived in the north forests of Iran from the Caspian sea coast, Alborz mountains chain and oak forest of Zagros margin from the Azarbaijan up to fars province. However, the generation of them was completely destroyed in the north west and west of Iran. According to reports about 50 years and out of reach of humans. In the present studies, data were collected from 2004 to 2014 in the Mazandaran state Hyrcanian forest by means of guard of environment and justiciary office of department of environment of Mazandaran in this process the all arrested illegal hunting of red deer and the population census, estimation and the correlation of these data was assayed. We provide a first evaluation of how suitable these methods are by comparing the results with population estimates obtained using cohort analysis, and by analyzing the within-season variation in number of seen deer. The data gave us the future of red deer in northern forest of Iran and the results of policy of department of environment in Iran in red deer conservation.

Keywords: illegal hunting, red deer, census, concervation

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Authors: A. D. Parekh

Abstract:

The present work describes relative contributions of operating parameters on required heat transfer area of three heat exchangers viz. evaporator, condenser and cascade condenser of two stage R404A-R508B cascade refrigeration system using Taguchi method. The operating parameters considered in present study includes (1) condensing temperature of high temperature cycle and low temperature cycle (2) evaporating temperature of low temperature cycle (3) degree of superheating in low temperature cycle (4) refrigerating effect. Heat transfer areas of three heat exchangers are studied with variation of above operating parameters and also optimum working levels of each operating parameter has been obtained for minimum heat transfer area of each heat exchanger using Taguchi method. The analysis using Taguchi method reveals that evaporating temperature of low temperature cycle and refrigerating effect contribute relatively largely on the area of evaporator. Condenser area is mainly influenced by both condensing temperature of high temperature cycle and refrigerating effect. Area of cascade condenser is mainly affected by refrigerating effect and the effects of other operating parameters are minimal.

Keywords: cascade refrigeration system, Taguchi method, heat transfer area, ANOVA, optimal solution

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Authors: Kanokwan Chancharoenchai

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Economic growth can be considered as an important element of countries’ development process. For developing countries, like Thailand, to ensure the continuous growth of the economy, the Thai government usually implements various policies to stimulate economic growth. They may take the form of fiscal, monetary, trade, and other policies. Because of these different aspects, understanding factors relating to economic growth could allow the government to introduce the proper plan for the future economic stimulating scheme. Consequently, this issue has caught interest of not only policymakers but also academics. This study, therefore, investigates explanatory variables for economic growth in Thailand from 2005 to 2017 with a total of 52 quarters. The findings would contribute to the field of economic growth and become helpful information to policymakers. The investigation is estimated throughout the production function with non-linear Cobb-Douglas equation. The rate of growth is indicated by the change of GDP in the natural logarithmic form. The relevant factors included in the estimation cover three traditional means of production and implicit effects, such as human capital, international activity and technological transfer from developed countries. Besides, this investigation takes the internal and external instabilities into account as proxied by the unobserved inflation estimation and the real effective exchange rate (REER) of the Thai baht, respectively. The unobserved inflation series are obtained from the AR(1)-ARCH(1) model, while the unobserved REER of Thai baht is gathered from naive OLS-GARCH(1,1) model. According to empirical results, the AR(|2|) equation which includes seven significant variables, namely capital stock, labor, the imports of capital goods, trade openness, the REER of Thai baht uncertainty, one previous GDP, and the world financial crisis in 2009 dummy, presents the most suitable model. The autoregressive model is assumed constant estimator that would somehow cause the unbias. However, this is not the case of the recursive coefficient model from the state space model that allows the transition of coefficients. With the powerful state space model, it provides the productivity or effect of each significant factor more in detail. The state coefficients are estimated based on the AR(|2|) with the exception of the one previous GDP and the 2009 world financial crisis dummy. The findings shed the light that those factors seem to be stable through time since the occurrence of the world financial crisis together with the political situation in Thailand. These two events could lower the confidence in the Thai economy. Moreover, state coefficients highlight the sluggish rate of machinery replacement and quite low technology of capital goods imported from abroad. The Thai government should apply proactive policies via taxation and specific credit policy to improve technological advancement, for instance. Another interesting evidence is the issue of trade openness which shows the negative transition effect along the sample period. This could be explained by the loss of price competitiveness to imported goods, especially under the widespread implementation of free trade agreement. The Thai government should carefully handle with regulations and the investment incentive policy by focusing on strengthening small and medium enterprises.

Keywords: autoregressive model, economic growth, state space model, Thailand

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Authors: Samita Sondhi, Sachin Kumar, Chirag Chopra

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The increase in population has resulted in an excessive feedstock production, which has in return lead to the accumulation of a large amount of waste from different resources as crop residues, industrial waste and solid municipal waste. This situation has raised the problem of waste disposal in present days. A parallel problem of depletion of natural fossil fuel resources has led to the formation of alternative sources of energy from the waste of different industries to concurrently resolve the two issues. The biogas is a carbon neutral fuel which has applications in transportation, heating and power generation. India is a nation that has an agriculture-based economy and agro-residues are a significant source of organic waste. Taking into account, the second largest agro-based industry that is sugarcane industry producing a high quantity of sugar and sugarcane waste byproducts such as Bagasse, Press Mud, Vinasse and Wastewater. Currently, there are not such efficient disposal methods adopted at large scales. According to manageability objectives, anaerobic digestion can be considered as a method to treat organic wastes. Press mud is lignocellulosic biomass and cannot be accumulated for Mono digestion because of its complexity. Prior investigations indicated that it has a potential for production of biogas. But because of its biological and elemental complexity, Mono-digestion was not successful. Due to the imbalance in the C/N ratio and presence of wax in it can be utilized with any other fibrous material hence will be digested properly under suitable conditions. In the first batch of Mono-digestion of Pressmud biogas production was low. Now, co-digestion of Pressmud with Bagasse which has desired C/N ratio will be performed to optimize the ratio for maximum biogas from Press mud. In addition, with respect to supportability, the main considerations are the monetary estimation of item result and ecological concerns. The work is designed in such a way that the waste from the sugar industry will be digested for maximum biogas generation and digestive after digestion will be characterized for its use as a bio-fertilizer for soil conditioning. Due to effectiveness demonstrated by studied setups of Mono-digestion and Co-digestion, this approach can be considered as a viable alternative for lignocellulosic waste disposal and in agricultural applications. Biogas produced from the Pressmud either can be used for Powerhouses or transportation. In addition, the work initiated towards the development of waste disposal for energy production will demonstrate balanced economy sustainability of the process development.

Keywords: anaerobic digestion, carbon neutral fuel, press mud, lignocellulosic biomass

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Authors: Rajamani Doraiswami, Lahouari Cheded

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Fault diagnosis of Linear Parameter-Varying (LPV) system using an adaptive Kalman filter is proposed. The LPV model is comprised of scheduling parameters, and the emulator parameters. The scheduling parameters are chosen such that they are capable of tracking variations in the system model as a result of changes in the operating regimes. The emulator parameters, on the other hand, simulate variations in the subsystems during the identification phase and have negligible effect during the operational phase. The nominal model and the influence vectors, which are the gradient of the feature vector respect to the emulator parameters, are identified off-line from a number of emulator parameter perturbed experiments. A Kalman filter is designed using the identified nominal model. As the system varies, the Kalman filter model is adapted using the scheduling variables. The residual is employed for fault diagnosis. The proposed scheme is successfully evaluated on simulated system as well as on a physical process control system.

Keywords: identification, linear parameter-varying systems, least-squares estimation, fault diagnosis, Kalman filter, emulators

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Authors: R. Kiran, B. R. Lakshmikantha, R. V. Parimala

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Secure operation of power systems requires monitoring of the system operating conditions. Phasor measurement units (PMU) are the device, which uses synchronized signals from the GPS satellites, and provide the phasors information of voltage and currents at a given substation. The optimal locations for the PMUs must be determined, in order to avoid redundant use of PMUs. The objective of this paper is to make system observable by using minimum number of PMUs & the implementation of stability software at 22OkV grid for on-line estimation of the power system transfer capability based on voltage and thermal limitations and for security monitoring. This software utilizes State Estimator (SE) and synchrophasor PMU data sets for determining the power system operational margin under normal and contingency conditions. This software improves security of transmission system by continuously monitoring operational margin expressed in MW or in bus voltage angles, and alarms the operator if the margin violates a pre-defined threshold.

Keywords: state estimator (SE), flexible ac transmission systems (FACTS), optimal location, phasor measurement units (PMU)

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Authors: Chong Wang, Alexandre Urbano Hoffmann

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Interaction between a crack and a trapezoidal aggregate in a single edge notched concrete beam is simulated using boundary element method with an automatic crack extension program. The stress intensity factors of the growing crack are obtained from the J-integral. Three crack extension paths: deflecting around the particulate, growing along the interface and penetrating into the particulate are achieved in terms of the mismatch state of mechanical characteristics of matrix and the particulate. The toughening is also given by the ratio of stress intensity factors. The results reveal that as stress shielding occurs, toughening is obtained when the crack is approaching to a stiff and strong aggregate weakly bonded to a relatively soft matrix. The present work intends to help for the design of aggregate reinforced concretes.

Keywords: aggregate concrete, boundary element method, two-phase composite, crack extension path, crack/particulate interaction

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Authors: Foad Nazari, Seyed Mahmood Hosseini, Mohammad Hossein Abolbashari, Mohammad Hassan Abolbashari

Abstract:

The present study is concerned with the optimal design of functionally graded plates using particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm. In this study, meshless local Petrov-Galerkin (MLPG) method is employed to obtain the functionally graded (FG) plate’s natural frequencies. Effects of two parameters including thickness to height ratio and volume fraction index on the natural frequencies and total mass of plate are studied by using the MLPG results. Then the first natural frequency of the plate, for different conditions where MLPG data are not available, is predicted by an artificial neural network (ANN) approach which is trained by back-error propagation (BEP) technique. The ANN results show that the predicted data are in good agreement with the actual one. To maximize the first natural frequency and minimize the mass of FG plate simultaneously, the weighted sum optimization approach and PSO algorithm are used. However, the proposed optimization process of this study can provide the designers of FG plates with useful data.

Keywords: optimal design, natural frequency, FG plate, hybrid meshless method, MLPG method, ANN approach, particle swarm optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 368

Authors: J.R.S.S. Kumara, M.A.R.M. Fernando, S.Venkatesh, D.K. Jayaratne

Abstract:

Protection of heritage monuments against lightning has become extremely important as far as their historical values are concerned. When such structures are large and tall, the risk of lightning initiated from both cloud and ground can be high. This paper presents a lightning risk analysis of three giant stupas in Anuradhapura era (fourth century BC onwards) in Sri Lanka. The three stupas are Jethawaaramaya (269-296 AD), Abayagiriya (88-76 BC) and Ruwanweliseya (161-137 BC), the third, fifth and seventh largest ancient structures in the world. These stupas are solid brick structures consisting of a base, a near hemispherical dome and a conical spire on the top. The ancient stupas constructed with a dielectric crystal on the top and connected to the ground through a conducting material, was considered as the hypothesis for their original lightning protection technique. However, at present, all three stupas are protected with Franklin rod type air termination systems located on top of the spire. First, a risk analysis was carried out according to IEC 62305 by considering the isokeraunic level of the area and the height of the stupas. Then the standard protective angle method and rolling sphere method were used to locate the possible touching points on the surface of the stupas. The study was extended to estimate the critical current which could strike on the unprotected areas of the stupas. The equations proposed by (Uman 2001) and (Cooray2007) were used to find the striking distances. A modified version of rolling sphere method was also applied to see the effects of upward leaders. All these studies were carried out for two scenarios: with original (i.e. ancient) lightning protection system and with present (i.e. new) air termination system. The field distribution on the surface of the stupa in the presence of a downward leader was obtained using finite element based commercial software COMSOL Multiphysics for further investigations of lightning risks. The obtained results were analyzed and compared each other to evaluate the performance of ancient and new lightning protection methods and identify suitable methods to design lightning protection systems for stupas. According to IEC standards, all three stupas with new and ancient lightning protection system has Level IV protection as per protection angle method. However according to rolling sphere method applied with Uman’s equation protection level is III. The same method applied with Cooray’s equation always shows a high risk with respect to Uman’s equation. It was found that there is a risk of lightning strikes on the dome and square chamber of the stupa, and the corresponding critical current values were different with respect to the equations used in the rolling sphere method and modified rolling sphere method.

Keywords: Stupa, heritage, lightning protection, rolling sphere method, protection level

Procedia PDF Downloads 256

Authors: Manar Amayri, Hussain Kazimi, Quoc-Dung Ngo, Stephane Ploix

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A general approach is proposed to determine occupant behavior (occupancy and activity) in residential buildings and to use these estimates for improved energy management. Occupant behaviour is modelled with a Bayesian Network in an unsupervised manner. This algorithm makes use of domain knowledge gathered via questionnaires and recorded sensor data for motion detection, power, and hot water consumption as well as indoor CO₂ concentration. Two case studies are presented which show the real world applicability of estimating occupant behaviour in this way. Furthermore, experiments integrating occupancy estimation and hot water production control show that energy efficiency can be increased by roughly 5% over known optimal control techniques and more than 25% over rule-based control while maintaining the same occupant comfort standards. The efficiency gains are strongly correlated with occupant behaviour and accuracy of the occupancy estimates.

Keywords: energy, management, control, optimization, Bayesian methods, learning theory, sensor networks, knowledge modelling and knowledge based systems, artificial intelligence, buildings

Procedia PDF Downloads 371

Authors: Hao-Hsi Tseng, Hsin-Yun Lee

Abstract:

The Most Advantageous Tender (MAT) has been criticized for its susceptibility to dictatorial situations and for its processing of same score, same rank issues. This study applies the four criteria from Arrow's Impossibility Theorem to construct a mechanism for revealing illegitimate scores in scoring methods. While commonly be used to improve on problems resulting from extreme scores, ranking methods hide significant defects, adversely affecting selection fairness. To address these shortcomings, this study relies mainly on the overall evaluated score method, using standardized scores plus normal cumulative distribution function conversion to calculate the evaluation of vender preference. This allows for free score evaluations, which reduces the influence of dictatorial behavior and avoiding same score, same rank issues. Large-scale simulations confirm that this method outperforms currently used methods using the Impossibility Theorem.

Keywords: Arrow’s impossibility theorem, cumulative normal distribution function, most advantageous tender, scoring method

Procedia PDF Downloads 464

Authors: Oswaldo Otero, Eduardo A. Orozco, Ana M. Herrera

Abstract:

In this work, we present results from analytical and numerical studies of the electron acceleration by a TE₀₁₁ cylindrical microwave mode in a static homogeneous magnetic field under electron cyclotron resonance (ECR) condition. The stability of the orbits is analyzed using the particle orbit theory. In order to get a better understanding of the interaction wave-particle, we decompose the azimuthally electric field component as the superposition of right and left-hand circular polarization standing waves. The trajectory, energy and phase-shift of the electron are found through a numerical solution of the relativistic Newton-Lorentz equation in a finite difference method by the Boris method. It is shown that an electron longitudinally injected with an energy of 7 keV in a radial position r=Rc/2, being Rc the cavity radius, is accelerated up to energy of 90 keV by an electric field strength of 14 kV/cm and frequency of 2.45 GHz. This energy can be used to produce X-ray for medical imaging. These results can be used as a starting point for study the acceleration of electrons in a magnetic field changing slowly in time (GYRAC), which has some important applications as the electron cyclotron resonance ion proton accelerator (ECR-IPAC) for cancer therapy and to control plasma bunches with relativistic electrons.

Keywords: Boris method, electron cyclotron resonance, finite difference method, particle orbit theory, X-ray

Procedia PDF Downloads 159

Authors: Marcin Baranski

Abstract:

This article presents a vibration diagnostic method designed for permanent magnets (PM) traction motors. Those machines are commonly used in traction drives of electrical vehicles. Specific structural properties of machines excited by permanent magnets are used in this method - electromotive force (EMF) generated due to vibrations. This work presents: field-circuit model, results of static tests, results of calculations and simulations.

Keywords: electrical vehicle, permanent magnet, traction drive, vibrations, electrical machine, eccentricity

Procedia PDF Downloads 630