Search results for: adaptive soc estimation

Authors: Sunil Chandra, Himanshu Rawat, Vikas Gusain, Triparna Barman

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Forest fires are a recurrent phenomenon in the Himalayan region owing to the presence of vulnerable forest types, topographical gradients, climatic weather conditions, and anthropogenic pressure. The present study focuses on the identification of forest fire-affected areas in a small part of the West Himalayan region using a differential normalized burnt ratio method and spectral unmixing methods. The study area has a rugged terrain with the presence of sub-tropical pine forest, montane temperate forest, and sub-alpine forest and scrub. The major reason for fires in this region is anthropogenic in nature, with the practice of human-induced fires for getting fresh leaves, scaring wild animals to protect agricultural crops, grazing practices within reserved forests, and igniting fires for cooking and other reasons. The fires caused by the above reasons affect a large area on the ground, necessitating its precise estimation for further management and policy making. In the present study, two approaches have been used for carrying out a burnt area analysis. The first approach followed for burnt area analysis uses a differenced normalized burnt ratio (dNBR) index approach that uses the burnt ratio values generated using the Short-Wave Infrared (SWIR) band and Near Infrared (NIR) bands of the Sentinel-2 image. The results of the dNBR have been compared with the outputs of the spectral mixing methods. It has been found that the dNBR is able to create good results in fire-affected areas having homogenous forest stratum and with slope degree <5 degrees. However, in a rugged terrain where the landscape is largely influenced by the topographical variations, vegetation types, tree density, the results may be largely influenced by the effects of topography, complexity in tree composition, fuel load composition, and soil moisture. Hence, such variations in the factors influencing burnt area assessment may not be effectively carried out using a dNBR approach which is commonly followed for burnt area assessment over a large area. Hence, another approach that has been attempted in the present study utilizes a spectral mixing method where the individual pixel is tested before assigning an information class to it. The method uses a neural network approach utilizing Sentinel-2 bands. The training and testing data are generated from the Sentinel-2 data and the national field inventory, which is further used for generating outputs using ML tools. The analysis of the results indicates that the fire-affected regions and their severity can be better estimated using spectral unmixing methods, which have the capability to resolve the noise in the data and can classify the individual pixel to the precise burnt/unburnt class.

Keywords: categorical data, log linear modeling, neural network, shifting cultivation

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Authors: Abha Gupta, Deepak K. Mishra

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Food security issue in India has surrounded over availability and accessibility of cereal which is regarded as the only food group to check hunger and improve nutrition. Significance of fruits, vegetables, meat and other food products have totally been neglected given the fact that they provide essential nutrients to the body. There is a need to shift the emphasis from cereal-based approach to a more diverse diet so that aim of achieving food security may change from just reducing hunger to an overall health. This paper attempts to analyse how far dietary diversity level has been achieved across different socio-economic groups in India. For this purpose, present paper sets objectives to determine (a) percentage share of different food groups to total food expenditure and consumption by background characteristics (b) source of and preference for all food items and, (c) diversity of diet across socio-economic groups. A cross sectional survey covering 304 households selected through proportional stratified random sampling was conducted in six villages of Aligarh district of Uttar Pradesh, India. Information on amount of food consumed, source of consumption and expenditure on food (74 food items grouped into 10 major food groups) was collected with a recall period of seven days. Per capita per day food consumption/expenditure was calculated through dividing consumption/expenditure by household size and number seven. Food variety score was estimated by giving 0 values to those food groups/items which had not been eaten and 1 to those which had been taken by households in last seven days. Addition of all food group/item score gave result of food variety score. Diversity of diet was computed using Herfindahl-Hirschman index. Findings of the paper show that cereal, milk, roots and tuber food groups contribute a major share in total consumption/expenditure. Consumption of these food groups vary across socio-economic groups whereas fruit, vegetables, meat and other food consumption remain low and same. Estimation of dietary diversity show higher concentration of diet due to higher consumption of cereals, milk, root and tuber products and dietary diversity slightly varies across background groups. Muslims, Scheduled caste, small farmers, lower income class, food insecure, below poverty line and labour families show higher concentration of diet as compared to their counterpart groups. These groups also evince lower mean intake of number of food item in a week due to poor economic constraints and resultant lower accessibility to number of expensive food items. Results advocate to make a shift from cereal based diet to dietary diversity which not only includes cereal and milk products but also nutrition rich food items such as fruits, vegetables, meat and other products. Integrating a dietary diversity approach in food security programmes of the country would help to achieve nutrition security as hidden hunger is widespread among the Indian population.

Keywords: dietary diversity, food Security, India, socio-economic groups

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Authors: Ola Hall, Ibrahim Wahab, Thorsteinn Rognvaldsson, Mattias Ohlsson

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The subfield of poverty and welfare estimation that applies machine learning tools and methods on satellite imagery is a nascent but rapidly growing one. This is in part driven by the sustainable development goal, whose overarching principle is that no region is left behind. Among other things, this requires that welfare levels can be accurately and rapidly estimated at different spatial scales and resolutions. Conventional tools of household surveys and interviews do not suffice in this regard. While they are useful for gaining a longitudinal understanding of the welfare levels of populations, they do not offer adequate spatial coverage for the accuracy that is needed, nor are their implementation sufficiently swift to gain an accurate insight into people and places. It is this void that satellite imagery fills. Previously, this was near-impossible to implement due to the sheer volume of data that needed processing. Recent advances in machine learning, especially the deep learning subtype, such as deep neural networks, have made this a rapidly growing area of scholarship. Despite their unprecedented levels of performance, such models lack transparency and explainability and thus have seen limited downstream applications as humans generally are apprehensive of techniques that are not inherently interpretable and trustworthy. While several studies have demonstrated the superhuman performance of AI models, none has directly compared the performance of such models and human readers in the domain of poverty studies. In the present study, we directly compare the performance of human readers and a DL model using different resolutions of satellite imagery to estimate the welfare levels of demographic and health survey clusters in Tanzania, using the wealth quintile ratings from the same survey as the ground truth data. The cluster-level imagery covers all 608 cluster locations, of which 428 were classified as rural. The imagery for the human readers was sourced from the Google Maps Platform at an ultra-high resolution of 0.6m per pixel at zoom level 18, while that of the machine learning model was sourced from the comparatively lower resolution Sentinel-2 10m per pixel data for the same cluster locations. Rank correlation coefficients of between 0.31 and 0.32 achieved by the human readers were much lower when compared to those attained by the machine learning model – 0.69-0.79. This superhuman performance by the model is even more significant given that it was trained on the relatively lower 10-meter resolution satellite data while the human readers estimated welfare levels from the higher 0.6m spatial resolution data from which key markers of poverty and slums – roofing and road quality – are discernible. It is important to note, however, that the human readers did not receive any training before ratings, and had this been done, their performance might have improved. The stellar performance of the model also comes with the inevitable shortfall relating to limited transparency and explainability. The findings have significant implications for attaining the objective of the current frontier of deep learning models in this domain of scholarship – eXplainable Artificial Intelligence through a collaborative rather than a comparative framework.

Keywords: poverty prediction, satellite imagery, human readers, machine learning, Tanzania

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Authors: Ja-Keoung Koo, Kensuke Nakamura, Hyohun Kim, Dongwha Shin, Yeonseok Kim, Ji-Su Ahn, Byung-Woo Hong

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The machine learning techniques based on a convolutional neural network (CNN) have been actively developed and successfully applied to a variety of image analysis tasks including reconstruction, noise reduction, resolution enhancement, segmentation, motion estimation, object recognition. The classical visual information processing that ranges from low level tasks to high level ones has been widely developed in the deep learning framework. It is generally considered as a challenging problem to derive visual interpretation from high dimensional imagery data. A CNN is a class of feed-forward artificial neural network that usually consists of deep layers the connections of which are established by a series of non-linear operations. The CNN architecture is known to be shift invariant due to its shared weights and translation invariance characteristics. However, it is often computationally intractable to optimize the network in particular with a large number of convolution layers due to a large number of unknowns to be optimized with respect to the training set that is generally required to be large enough to effectively generalize the model under consideration. It is also necessary to limit the size of convolution kernels due to the computational expense despite of the recent development of effective parallel processing machinery, which leads to the use of the constantly small size of the convolution kernels throughout the deep CNN architecture. However, it is often desired to consider different scales in the analysis of visual features at different layers in the network. Thus, we propose a CNN model where different sizes of the convolution kernels are applied at each layer based on the random projection. We apply random filters with varying sizes and associate the filter responses with scalar weights that correspond to the standard deviation of the random filters. We are allowed to use large number of random filters with the cost of one scalar unknown for each filter. The computational cost in the back-propagation procedure does not increase with the larger size of the filters even though the additional computational cost is required in the computation of convolution in the feed-forward procedure. The use of random kernels with varying sizes allows to effectively analyze image features at multiple scales leading to a better generalization. The robustness and effectiveness of the proposed CNN based on random kernels are demonstrated by numerical experiments where the quantitative comparison of the well-known CNN architectures and our models that simply replace the convolution kernels with the random filters is performed. The experimental results indicate that our model achieves better performance with less number of unknown weights. The proposed algorithm has a high potential in the application of a variety of visual tasks based on the CNN framework. Acknowledgement—This work was supported by the MISP (Ministry of Science and ICT), Korea, under the National Program for Excellence in SW (20170001000011001) supervised by IITP, and NRF-2014R1A2A1A11051941, NRF2017R1A2B4006023.

Keywords: deep learning, convolutional neural network, random kernel, random projection, dimensionality reduction, object recognition

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Authors: Manish Saha, Manish Kumar Niranjan, Saket Asthana

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The K₀.₅Na₀.₅NbO₃ (KNN) system has emerged as one of the most promising lead-free piezoelectric over the years. In this work, we perform a comprehensive investigation of electronic structure, lattice dynamics and dielectric/ferroelectric properties of the room temperature phase of KNN by combining ab-initio DFT-based theoretical analysis and experimental characterization. We assign the symmetry labels to KNN vibrational modes and obtain ab-initio polarized Raman spectra, Infrared (IR) reflectivity, Born-effective charge tensors, oscillator strengths etc. The computed Raman spectrum is found to agree well with the experimental spectrum. In particular, the results suggest that the mode in the range ~840-870 cm-¹ reported in the experimental studies is longitudinal optical (LO) with A_1 symmetry. The Raman mode intensities are calculated for different light polarization set-ups, which suggests the observation of different symmetry modes in different polarization set-ups. The electronic structure of KNN is investigated, and an optical absorption spectrum is obtained. Further, the performances of DFT semi-local, metal-GGA and hybrid exchange-correlations (XC) functionals, in the estimation of KNN band gaps are investigated. The KNN bandgap computed using GGA-1/2 and HSE06 hybrid functional schemes are found to be in excellant agreement with the experimental value. The COHP, electron localization function and Bader charge analysis is also performed to deduce the nature of chemical bonding in the KNN. The solid-state reaction and hydrothermal methods are used to prepare the KNN ceramics, and the effects of grain size on the physical characteristics these ceramics are examined. A comprehensive study on the impact of different synthesis techniques on the structural, electrical, and photocatalytic properties of ferroelectric ceramics KNN. The KNN-S prepared by solid-state method have significantly larger grain size as compared to that for KNN-H prepared by hydrothermal method. Furthermore, the KNN-S is found to exhibit higher dielectric, piezoelectric and ferroelectric properties as compared to KNN-H. On the other hand, the increased photocatalytic activity is observed in KNN-H as compared to KNN-S. As compared to the hydrothermal synthesis, the solid-state synthesis causes an increase in the relative dielectric permittivity (ε^') from 2394 to 3286, remnant polarization (P_r) from 15.38 to 20.41 μC/cm^², planer electromechanical coupling factor (k_p) from 0.19 to 0.28 and piezoelectric coefficient (d_33) from 88 to 125 pC/N. The KNN-S ceramics are also found to have a lower leakage current density, and higher grain resistance than KNN-H ceramic. The enhanced photocatalytic activity of KNN-H is attributed to relatively smaller particle sizes. The KNN-S and KNN-H samples are found to have degradation efficiencies of RhB solution of 20% and 65%, respectively. The experimental study highlights the importance of synthesis methods and how these can be exploited to tailor the dielectric, piezoelectric and photocatalytic properties of KNN. Overall, our study provides several bench-mark important results on KNN that have not been reported so far.

Keywords: lead-free piezoelectric, Raman intensity spectrum, electronic structure, first-principles calculations, solid state synthesis, photocatalysis, hydrothermal synthesis

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Authors: Davit Pipoyan, Meline Beglaryan, Nicolò Merendino

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Mining industry is one of the priority sectors of Armenian economy. Along with the solution of some socio-economic development, it brings about numerous environmental problems, especially toxic element pollution, which largely influences the safety of agricultural products. In addition, accumulation of toxic elements in agricultural products, mainly in edible parts of plants represents a direct pathway for their penetration into the human food chain. In Armenia, the share of plant origin food in overall diet is significantly high, so estimation of dietary intakes of toxic trace elements via consumption of selected fruits and vegetables are of great importance for observing the underlying health risks. Therefore, the present study was aimed to assess dietary exposure of potentially toxic trace elements through the intake of locally grown fruits and vegetables in Akhtala community (Armenia), where not only mining industry is developed, but also cultivation of fruits and vegetables. Moreover, this investigation represents one of the very first attempts to estimate human dietary exposure of potentially toxic trace elements in the study area. Samples of some commonly grown fruits and vegetables (fig, cornel, raspberry, grape, apple, plum, maize, bean, potato, cucumber, onion, greens) were randomly collected from several home gardens located near mining areas in Akhtala community. The concentration of Cu, Mo, Ni, Cr, Pb, Zn, Hg, As and Cd in samples were determined by using an atomic absorption spectrophotometer (AAS). Precision and accuracy of analyses were guaranteed by repeated analysis of samples against NIST Standard Reference Materials. For a diet study, individual-based approach was used, so the consumption of selected fruits and vegetables was investigated through food frequency questionnaire (FFQ). Combining concentration data with contamination data, the estimated daily intakes (EDI) and cumulative daily intakes were assessed and compared with health-based guidance values (HBGVs). According to the determined concentrations of the studied trace elements in fruits and vegetables, it can be stressed that some trace elements (Cu, Ni, Pb, Zn) among the majority of samples exceeded maximum allowable limits set by international organizations. Meanwhile, others (Cr, Hg, As, Cd, Mo) either did not exceed these limits or still do not have established allowable limits. The obtained results indicated that only for Cu the EDI values exceeded dietary reference intake (0.01 mg/kg/Bw/day) for some investigated fruits and vegetables in decreasing order of potato > grape > bean > raspberry > fig > greens. In contrast to this, for combined consumption of selected fruits and vegetables estimated cumulative daily intakes exceeded reference doses in the following sequence: Zn > Cu > Ni > Mo > Pb. It may be concluded that habitual and combined consumption of the above mentioned fruits and vegetables can pose a health risk to the local population. Hence, further detailed studies are needed for the overall assessment of potential health implications taking into consideration adverse health effects posed by more than one toxic trace element.

Keywords: daily intake, dietary exposure, fruits, trace elements, vegetables

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Authors: Samrat Paul, Satyajit Pahari, Krishnendu Basak, Amitava Roy

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Fishing is one of the pivotal livelihood activities, especially in developing countries. Today it is considered an important occupation for human society from the era of human settlement began. In simple terms, non-target catches of any species during fishing can be considered as ‘bycatch,’ and fishing bycatch is neither a new fishery management issue nor a new problem. Sundarban is one of the world’s largest mangrove land expanding up to 10,200 sq. km in India and Bangladesh. This largest mangrove biome resource is used by the local inhabitants commercially to run their livelihood, especially by forest fringe villagers (FFVs). In Sundarban, over-fishing, especially post larvae collection of wild Penaeus monodon, is one of the major concerns, as during the collection of P. monodon, different aquatic species are destroyed as a result of bycatch mortality which changes in productivity and may negatively impact entire biodiversity, of the ecosystem. Wild prawn seed collection gear like a small mesh sized net poses a serious threat to aquatic stocks, where the collection isn’t only limited to prawn seed larvae. As prawn seed collection processes are inexpensive, require less monetary investment, and are lucrative; people are easily engaged here as their source of income. Wildlife Trust of India’s (WTI) intervention in selected forest fringe villages of Sundarban Tiger Reserve (STR) was to estimate and reduce the mortality of aquatic bycatches by involving local communities in newly developed release method and their time engagement in prawn seed collection (PSC) by involving them in Alternate Income Generation (AIG). The study was conducted for their taxonomic identification during the period of March to October 2019. Collected samples were preserved in 70% ethyl alcohol for identification, and all the preserved bycatch samples were identified morphologically by the expertise of the Zoological Survey of India (ZSI), Kolkata. Around 74 different aquatic species, where 11 different species are molluscs, 41 fish species, out of which 31 species were identified, and 22 species of crustacean collected, out of which 18 species were identified. Around 13 different species belong to a different order, and families were unable to identify them morphologically as they were collected in the juvenile stage. The study reveals that for collecting one single prawn seed, eight individual life of associated faunas are being lost. Zero bycatch mortality is not practical; rather, collectors should focus on bycatch reduction by avoiding capturing, allowing escaping, and mortality reduction, and must make changes in their fishing method by increasing net mesh size, which will avoid non-target captures. But as the prawns are small in size (generally 1-1.5 inches in length), thus increase net size making economically less or no profit for collectors if they do so. In this case, returning bycatches is considered one of the best ways to a reduction in bycatch mortality which is a more sustainable practice.

Keywords: bycatch mortality, biodiversity, mangrove biome resource, sustainable practice, Alternate Income Generation (AIG)

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Authors: M. A. C. S. Sampath Fernando, James M. Curran, Renate Meyer

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Model assessment, in the Bayesian context, involves evaluation of the goodness-of-fit and the comparison of several alternative candidate models for predictive accuracy and improvements. In posterior predictive checks, the data simulated under the fitted model is compared with the actual data. Predictive model accuracy is estimated using information criteria such as the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC), the Deviance information criterion (DIC), and the Watanabe-Akaike information criterion (WAIC). The goal of an information criterion is to obtain an unbiased measure of out-of-sample prediction error. Since posterior checks use the data twice; once for model estimation and once for testing, a bias correction which penalises the model complexity is incorporated in these criteria. Cross-validation (CV) is another method used for examining out-of-sample prediction accuracy. Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV) is the most computationally expensive variant among the other CV methods, as it fits as many models as the number of observations. Importance sampling (IS), truncated importance sampling (TIS) and Pareto-smoothed importance sampling (PSIS) are generally used as approximations to the exact LOO-CV and utilise the existing MCMC results avoiding expensive computational issues. The reciprocals of the predictive densities calculated over posterior draws for each observation are treated as the raw importance weights. These are in turn used to calculate the approximate LOO-CV of the observation as a weighted average of posterior densities. In IS-LOO, the raw weights are directly used. In contrast, the larger weights are replaced by their modified truncated weights in calculating TIS-LOO and PSIS-LOO. Although, information criteria and LOO-CV are unable to reflect the goodness-of-fit in absolute sense, the differences can be used to measure the relative performance of the models of interest. However, the use of these measures is only valid under specific circumstances. This study has developed 11 models using normal, log-normal, gamma, and student’s t distributions to improve the PCR stutter prediction with forensic data. These models are comprised of four with profile-wide variances, four with locus specific variances, and three which are two-component mixture models. The mean stutter ratio in each model is modeled as a locus specific simple linear regression against a feature of the alleles under study known as the longest uninterrupted sequence (LUS). The use of AIC, BIC, DIC, and WAIC in model comparison has some practical limitations. Even though, IS-LOO, TIS-LOO, and PSIS-LOO are considered to be approximations of the exact LOO-CV, the study observed some drastic deviations in the results. However, there are some interesting relationships among the logarithms of pointwise predictive densities (lppd) calculated under WAIC and the LOO approximation methods. The estimated overall lppd is a relative measure that reflects the overall goodness-of-fit of the model. Parallel log-likelihood profiles for the models conditional on equal posterior variances in lppds were observed. This study illustrates the limitations of the information criteria in practical model comparison problems. In addition, the relationships among LOO-CV approximation methods and WAIC with their limitations are discussed. Finally, useful recommendations that may help in practical model comparisons with these methods are provided.

Keywords: cross-validation, importance sampling, information criteria, predictive accuracy

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Authors: Alondra Balbuena Medina, Carlos Diaz Delgado, Aleida Yadira Vilchis Fránces

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In Mexico, each year news is disseminated about the ravages of floods, such as the total loss of housing, damage to the fields; the increase of the costs of the food, derived from the losses of the harvests, coupled with health problems such as skin infection, etc. In addition to social problems such as delinquency, damage in education institutions and the population in general. The flooding is a consequence of heavy rains, tropical storms and or hurricanes that generate excess water in drainage systems that exceed its capacity. In urban areas, heavy rains can be one of the main factors in causing flooding, in addition to excessive precipitation, dam breakage, and human activities, for example, excessive garbage in the strainers. In agricultural areas, these can hardly achieve large areas of cultivation. It should be mentioned that for both areas, one of the significant impacts of floods is that they can permanently affect the livelihoods of many families, cause damage, for example in their workplaces such as farmlands, commercial or industry areas and where services are provided. In recent years, Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) have had an accelerated development, being reflected in the growth and the exponential evolution of the innovation giving; as a result, the daily generation of new technologies, updates, and applications. Innovation in the development of Information Technology applications has impacted on all areas of human activity. They influence all the orders of life of individuals, reconfiguring the way of perceiving and analyzing the world such as, for instance, interrelating with people as individuals and as a society, in the economic, political, social, cultural, educational, environmental, etc. Therefore the present work describes the creation of a system of calculation of flood costs for housing areas, retail establishments and agricultural areas from the Mexican Republic, based on the use and application of geotechnical tools being able to be useful for the benefit of the sectors of public, education and private. To generate analysis of hydrometereologic affections and with the obtained results to realize the Geoinformatics tool was constructed from two different points of view: the geoinformatic (design and development of GIS software) and the methodology of flood damage validation in order to integrate a tool that provides the user the monetary estimate of the effects caused by the floods. With information from the period 2000-2014, the functionality of the application was corroborated. For the years 2000 to 2009 only the analysis of the agricultural and housing areas was carried out, incorporating for the commercial establishment's information of the period 2010 - 2014. The method proposed for the resolution of this research project is a fundamental contribution to society, in addition to the tool itself. Therefore, it can be summarized that the problems that are in the physical-geographical environment, conceiving them from the point of view of the spatial analysis, allow to offer different alternatives of solution and also to open up slopes towards academia and research.

Keywords: floods, technological innovation, monetary estimation, spatial analysis

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Authors: S. B. R. Slagmulder

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Monitoring inspiratory effort and dynamic lung stress in patients on pressure support ventilation in the ICU is important for protecting against self inflicted lung injury (P-SILI) and diaphragm dysfunction. Strategies to address the detrimental effects of respiratory drive and effort can lead to improved patient outcomes. Two non-invasive estimation methods, occlusion pressure (Pocc) and P0.1, have been proposed for achieving lung and diaphragm protective ventilation. However, their relationship and interpretation in neuro ICU patients is not well understood. P0.1 is the airway pressure measured during a 100-millisecond occlusion of the inspiratory port. It reflects the neural drive from the respiratory centers to the diaphragm and respiratory muscles, indicating the patient's respiratory drive during the initiation of each breath. Occlusion pressure, measured during a brief inspiratory pause against a closed airway, provides information about the inspiratory muscles' strength and the system's total resistance and compliance. Research Objective: Understanding the relationship between Pocc and P0.1 in brain-injured patients can provide insights into the interpretation of these values in pressure support ventilation. This knowledge can contribute to determining extubation readiness and optimizing ventilation strategies to improve patient outcomes. The central goal is to asses a study protocol for determining the relationship between Pocc and P0.1 in brain-injured patients on pressure support ventilation and their ability to predict successful extubation. Additionally, comparing these values between brain-damaged and non-brain-damaged patients may provide valuable insights. Key Areas of Inquiry: 1. How do Pocc and P0.1 values correlate within brain injury patients undergoing pressure support ventilation? 2. To what extent can Pocc and P0.1 values serve as predictive indicators for successful extubation in patients with brain injuries? 3. What differentiates the Pocc and P0.1 values between patients with brain injuries and those without? Methodology: P0.1 and occlusion pressures are standard measurements for pressure support ventilation patients, taken by attending doctors as per protocol. We utilize electronic patient records for existing data. Unpaired T-test will be conducted to compare P0.1 and Pocc values between both study groups. Associations between P0.1 and Pocc and other study variables, such as extubation, will be explored with simple regression and correlation analysis. Depending on how the data evolve, subgroup analysis will be performed for patients with and without extubation failure. Results: While it is anticipated that neuro patients may exhibit high respiratory drive, the linkage between such elevation, quantified by P0.1, and successful extubation remains unknown The analysis will focus on determining the ability of these values to predict successful extubation and their potential impact on ventilation strategies. Conclusion: Further research is pending to fully understand the potential of these indices and their impact on mechanical ventilation in different patient populations and clinical scenarios. Understanding these relationships can aid in determining extubation readiness and tailoring ventilation strategies to improve patient outcomes in this specific patient population. Additionally, it is vital to account for the influence of sedatives, neurological scores, and BMI on respiratory drive and occlusion pressures to ensure a comprehensive analysis.

Keywords: brain damage, diaphragm dysfunction, occlusion pressure, p0.1, respiratory drive

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Authors: Davide Gotti, Milan Prodanovic, Sergio Pinilla, David Muñoz-Torrero

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Since its proposal, the Doyle-Fuller-Newman (DFN) lithium-ion battery model has gained popularity in the electrochemical field. In fact, this model provides the user with theoretical support for designing the lithium-ion battery parameters, such as the material particle or the diffusion coefficient adjustment direction. However, the model is mathematically complex as it is composed of several partial differential equations (PDEs) such as Fick’s law of diffusion, the MacInnes and Ohm’s equations, among other phenomena. Thus, to efficiently use the model in a time-domain simulation environment, the selection of the discretization technique is of a pivotal importance. There are several numerical methods available in the literature that can be used to carry out this task. In this study, a comparison between the explicit Euler, Crank-Nicolson, and Chebyshev discretization methods is proposed. These three methods are compared in terms of accuracy, stability, and computational times. Firstly, the explicit Euler discretization technique is analyzed. This method is straightforward to implement and is computationally fast. In this work, the accuracy of the method and its stability properties are shown for the electrolyte diffusion partial differential equation. Subsequently, the Crank-Nicolson method is considered. It represents a combination of the implicit and explicit Euler methods that has the advantage of being of the second order in time and is intrinsically stable, thus overcoming the disadvantages of the simpler Euler explicit method. As shown in the full paper, the Crank-Nicolson method provides accurate results when applied to the DFN model. Its stability does not depend on the integration time step, thus it is feasible for both short- and long-term tests. This last remark is particularly important as this discretization technique would allow the user to implement parameter estimation and optimization techniques such as system or genetic parameter identification methods using this model. Finally, the Chebyshev discretization technique is implemented in the DFN model. This discretization method features swift convergence properties and, as other spectral methods used to solve differential equations, achieves the same accuracy with a smaller number of discretization nodes. However, as shown in the literature, these methods are not suitable for handling sharp gradients, which are common during the first instants of the charge and discharge phases of the battery. The numerical results obtained and presented in this study aim to provide the guidelines on how to select the adequate discretization technique for the DFN model according to the type of application to be performed, highlighting the pros and cons of the three methods. Specifically, the non-eligibility of the simple Euler method for longterm tests will be presented. Afterwards, the Crank-Nicolson and the Chebyshev discretization methods will be compared in terms of accuracy and computational times under a wide range of battery operating scenarios. These include both long-term simulations for aging tests, and short- and mid-term battery charge/discharge cycles, typically relevant in battery applications like grid primary frequency and inertia control and electrical vehicle breaking and acceleration.

Keywords: Doyle-Fuller-Newman battery model, partial differential equations, discretization, numerical methods

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Authors: Rajinder Kumar Gupta, Rajni Kant Agrawal, Jaganniwas

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One of the most frightening phenomena of nature is the occurrence of earthquake as it has terrible and disastrous effects. Many earthquakes occur every day worldwide. There is need to have knowledge regarding the trends in earthquake occurrence worldwide. The recoding and interpretation of data obtained from the establishment of the worldwide system of seismological stations made this possible. From the analysis of recorded earthquake data, the earthquake parameters and source parameters can be computed and the earthquake catalogues can be prepared. These catalogues provide information on origin, time, epicenter locations (in term of latitude and longitudes) focal depths, magnitude and other related details of the recorded earthquakes. Theses catalogues are used for seismic hazard estimation. Manual interpretation and analysis of these data is tedious and time consuming. A geographical information system is a computer based system designed to store, analyzes and display geographic information. The implementation of integrated GIS technology provides an approach which permits rapid evaluation of complex inventor database under a variety of earthquake scenario and allows the user to interactively view results almost immediately. GIS technology provides a powerful tool for displaying outputs and permit to users to see graphical distribution of impacts of different earthquake scenarios and assumptions. An endeavor has been made in present study to compile the earthquake data for the whole world in visual Basic on ARC GIS Plate form so that it can be used easily for further analysis to be carried out by earthquake engineers. The basic data on time of occurrence, location and size of earthquake has been compiled for further querying based on various parameters. A preliminary analysis tool is also provided in the user interface to interpret the earthquake recurrence in region. The user interface also includes the seismic hazard information already worked out under GHSAP program. The seismic hazard in terms of probability of exceedance in definite return periods is provided for the world. The seismic zones of the Indian region are included in the user interface from IS 1893-2002 code on earthquake resistant design of buildings. The City wise satellite images has been inserted in Map and based on actual data the following information could be extracted in real time: • Analysis of soil parameters and its effect • Microzonation information • Seismic hazard and strong ground motion • Soil liquefaction and its effect in surrounding area • Impacts of liquefaction on buildings and infrastructure • Occurrence of earthquake in future and effect on existing soil • Propagation of earth vibration due of occurrence of Earthquake GIS based earthquake information system has been prepared for whole world in Visual Basic on ARC GIS Plate form and further extended micro level based on actual soil parameters. Individual tools has been developed for liquefaction, earthquake frequency etc. All information could be used for development of infrastructure i.e. multi story structure, Irrigation Dam & Its components, Hydro-power etc in real time for present and future.

Keywords: GIS based earthquake information system, microzonation, analysis and real time information about liquefaction, infrastructure development

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Authors: Kamyar Tolouei, Ehsan Moosavi

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In open-pit mines, the long-term production scheduling optimization problem (LTPSOP) is a complicated problem that contains constraints, large datasets, and uncertainties. Uncertainty in the output is caused by several geological, economic, or technical factors. Due to its dimensions and NP-hard nature, it is usually difficult to find an ideal solution to the LTPSOP. The optimal schedule generally restricts the ore, metal, and waste tonnages, average grades, and cash flows of each period. Past decades have witnessed important measurements of long-term production scheduling and optimal algorithms since researchers have become highly cognizant of the issue. In fact, it is not possible to consider LTPSOP as a well-solved problem. Traditional production scheduling methods in open-pit mines apply an estimated orebody model to produce optimal schedules. The smoothing result of some geostatistical estimation procedures causes most of the mine schedules and production predictions to be unrealistic and imperfect. With the expansion of simulation procedures, the risks from grade uncertainty in ore reserves can be evaluated and organized through a set of equally probable orebody realizations. In this paper, to synthesize grade uncertainty into the strategic mine schedule, a stochastic integer programming framework is presented to LTPSOP. The objective function of the model is to maximize the net present value and minimize the risk of deviation from the production targets considering grade uncertainty simultaneously while satisfying all technical constraints and operational requirements. Instead of applying one estimated orebody model as input to optimize the production schedule, a set of equally probable orebody realizations are applied to synthesize grade uncertainty in the strategic mine schedule and to produce a more profitable and risk-based production schedule. A mixture of metaheuristic procedures and mathematical methods paves the way to achieve an appropriate solution. This paper introduced a hybrid model between the augmented Lagrangian relaxation (ALR) method and the metaheuristic algorithm, the Harris Hawks optimization (HHO), to solve the LTPSOP under grade uncertainty conditions. In this study, the HHO is experienced to update Lagrange coefficients. Besides, a machine learning method called Random Forest is applied to estimate gold grade in a mineral deposit. The Monte Carlo method is used as the simulation method with 20 realizations. The results specify that the progressive versions have been considerably developed in comparison with the traditional methods. The outcomes were also compared with the ALR-genetic algorithm and ALR-sub-gradient. To indicate the applicability of the model, a case study on an open-pit gold mining operation is implemented. The framework displays the capability to minimize risk and improvement in the expected net present value and financial profitability for LTPSOP. The framework could control geological risk more effectively than the traditional procedure considering grade uncertainty in the hybrid model framework.

Keywords: grade uncertainty, metaheuristic algorithms, open-pit mine, production scheduling optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 105

Authors: Dan Kanmegne

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Africa will become the most populated continent by the end of the century, with around 4 billion inhabitants. Food security and climate changes will become continental issues since agricultural practices depend on climate but also contribute to global emissions and land degradation. Agroforestry has been identified as a cost-efficient and reliable strategy to address these two issues. It is defined as the integrated management of trees and crops/animals in the same land unit. Agroforestry provides benefits in terms of goods (fruits, medicine, wood, etc.) and services (windbreaks, fertility, etc.), and is acknowledged to have a great potential for carbon sequestration; therefore it can be integrated into reduction mechanisms of carbon emissions. Particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, the constraint stands in the lack of information about both areas under agroforestry and the characterization (composition, structure, and management) of each agroforestry system at the country level. This study describes and quantifies “what is where?”, earliest to the quantification of carbon stock in different systems. Remote sensing (RS) is the most efficient approach to map such a dynamic technology as agroforestry since it gives relatively adequate and consistent information over a large area at nearly no cost. RS data fulfill the good practice guidelines of the Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change (IPCC) that is to be used in carbon estimation. Satellite data are getting more and more accessible, and the archives are growing exponentially. To retrieve useful information to support decision-making out of this large amount of data, satellite data needs to be organized so to ensure fast processing, quick accessibility, and ease of use. A new solution is a data cube, which can be understood as a multi-dimensional stack (space, time, data type) of spatially aligned pixels and used for efficient access and analysis. A data cube for Burkina Faso has been set up from the cooperation project between the international service provider WASCAL and Germany, which provides an accessible exploitation architecture of multi-temporal satellite data. The aim of this study is to map and characterize agroforestry systems using the Burkina Faso earth observation data cube. The approach in its initial stage is based on an unsupervised image classification of a normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) time series from 2010 to 2018, to stratify the country based on the vegetation. Fifteen strata were identified, and four samples per location were randomly assigned to define the sampling units. For safety reasons, the northern part will not be part of the fieldwork. A total of 52 locations will be visited by the end of the dry season in February-March 2020. The field campaigns will consist of identifying and describing different agroforestry systems and qualitative interviews. A multi-temporal supervised image classification will be done with a random forest algorithm, and the field data will be used for both training the algorithm and accuracy assessment. The expected outputs are (i) map(s) of agroforestry dynamics, (ii) characteristics of different systems (main species, management, area, etc.); (iii) assessment report of Burkina Faso data cube.

Keywords: agroforestry systems, Burkina Faso, earth observation data cube, multi-temporal image classification

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Authors: Laith F. Gulli, Nicole M. Mallory

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The undertaking to develop a psychometric instrument is monumental. Understanding the relationship between variables and events is important in structural and exploratory design of psychometric instruments. Considering this, we describe a method used to group, pair and combine multiple Philosophical Assumption statements that assisted in development of a 13 item psychometric screening instrument. We abbreviated our Philosophical Assumptions (PA)s and added parameters, which were then condensed and mathematically modeled in a specific process. This model produced clusters of combinatorics which was utilized in design and development for 1) information retrieval and categorization 2) item development and 3) estimation of interactions among variables and likelihood of events. The psychometric screening instrument measured Knowledge, Assessment (education) and Beliefs (KAB) of New Addictions Research (NAR), which we called KABNAR. We obtained an overall internal consistency for the seven Likert belief items as measured by Cronbach’s α of .81 in the final study of 40 Clinicians, calculated by SPSS 14.0.1 for Windows. We constructed the instrument to begin with demographic items (degree/addictions certifications) for identification of target populations that practiced within Outpatient Substance Abuse Counseling (OSAC) settings. We then devised education items, beliefs items (seven items) and a modifiable “barrier from learning” item that consisted of six “choose any” choices. We also conceptualized a close relationship between identifying various degrees and certifications held by Outpatient Substance Abuse Therapists (OSAT) (the demographics domain) and all aspects of their education related to EB-NAR (past and present education and desired future training). We placed a descriptive (PA)1tx in both demographic and education domains to trace relationships of therapist education within these two domains. The two perceptions domains B1/b1 and B2/b2 represented different but interrelated perceptions from the therapist perspective. The belief items measured therapist perceptions concerning EB-NAR and therapist perceptions using EB-NAR during the beginning of outpatient addictions counseling. The (PA)s were written in simple words and descriptively accurate and concise. We then devised a list of parameters and appropriately matched them to each PA and devised descriptive parametric (PA)s in a domain categorized information grid. Descriptive parametric (PA)s were reduced to simple mathematical symbols. This made it easy to utilize parametric (PA)s into algorithms, combinatorics and clusters to develop larger information grids. By using matching combinatorics we took paired demographic and education domains with a subscript of 1 and matched them to the column with each B domain with subscript 1. Our algorithmic matching formed larger information grids with organized clusters in columns and rows. We repeated the process using different demographic, education and belief domains and devised multiple information grids with different parametric clusters and geometric arrays. We found benefit combining clusters by different geometric arrays, which enabled us to trace parametric variables and concepts. We were able to understand potential differences between dependent and independent variables and trace relationships of maximum likelihoods.

Keywords: psychometric, parametric, domains, grids, therapists

Procedia PDF Downloads 278

Authors: Filippo Verre

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This paper explores Turkey’s role as an influential waterpower in the Middle East, emphasizing the Peace Water Pipeline Project (PWPP) as a paradigm of hydro solidarity rather than conventional water diplomacy. Hydro solidarity transcends the strategic and often competitive nature of water diplomacy, highlighting cooperative, inclusive, and mutually beneficial approaches to water resource management. The PWPP, which aimed to transport freshwater from Turkey’s Manavgat River to several water-scarce nations in the Middle East, exemplifies this ethos. By providing a reliable water supply to address the chronic shortages in the region, the project underscored Turkey’s commitment to fostering regional cooperation, stability, and collective well-being through shared water resources. This paper provides an in-depth analysis of the Peace Water Pipeline Project, examining its technical specifications, environmental impact, and political implications. It discusses how the project’s foundation on principles of hydro solidarity could facilitate stronger regional ties, mitigate water-related conflicts, and promote sustainable development. By prioritizing collective benefits over unilateral gains, Turkey’s approach exemplified a transformative model of resource sharing that could inspire similar initiatives globally. This paper argues that the Peace Water Pipeline Project serves as a crucial case study in demonstrating how shared natural resources can be leveraged to build trust, enhance cooperation, and achieve common goals in a geopolitically volatile region. The findings emphasize the importance of adopting hydro solidarity as a guiding principle for future transboundary water projects, showcasing how collaborative water management can play a pivotal role in fostering peace, security, and sustainable development in the Middle East and beyond. This research is based on a mixed methodological approach combining qualitative and quantitative methods. The most relevant qualitative methods will involve Case Studies and Content Analysis. Concretely, the Friendship Dam Project (FDP) between Turkey and Syria will be mentioned to underline the importance of hydro solidarity approaches as opposed to water diplomacy. Analyzing this case aims to identify factors that contribute to successful hydro solidarity agreements, such as effective communication channels, trust-building measures, and adaptive management practices. Concerning Content Analysis, reviewing and analyzing policy documents, treaties, media reports, and public statements will help identify the official narratives and discourses surrounding the PWPP. This method fully comprehends how different stakeholders frame the issues and what solutions they propose. The quantitative methodology used in this research, which complements the qualitative approaches, involves economic valuation, which quantifies the PWPP’s economic impacts on Turkey and the Middle Eastern region. This includes assessing the cost of construction and maintenance and the financial benefits derived from improved water access and reduced conflict. Hydrological modelling will also be used as a quantitative research method. Using hydrological models to simulate the water flow and distribution scenarios helps quantify the pipeline’s potential impacts on water resources. By assessing the sustainability of water extraction and predicting how changes in water availability might affect different regions, these models play a crucial role in this research, shedding light on the impact of transboundary infrastructures on water management.

Keywords: hydro-solidarity, Middle East, transboundary water management, peace water pipeline project, water scarcity

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Authors: Hazel James P. Agngarayngay, Arnold R. Elepaño

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Mango is the third most important export fruit in the Philippines. Despite the expanding mango trade in world market, problems on postharvest losses caused by pests and diseases are still prevalent. Many disease control and pest disinfestation methods have been studied and adopted. Heat treatment is necessary to eliminate pests and diseases to be able to pass the quarantine requirements of importing countries. During heat treatments, temperature and time are critical because fruits can easily be damaged by over-exposure to heat. Modeling the process enables researchers and engineers to study the behaviour of temperature distribution within the fruit over time. Understanding physical processes through modeling and simulation also saves time and resources because of reduced experimentation. This research aimed to simulate the heat transfer mechanism and predict the temperature distribution in ‘Carabao' mangoes during hot water treatment (HWT) and extended hot water treatment (EHWT). The simulation was performed in ANSYS CFD Software, using ANSYS CFX Solver. The simulation process involved model creation, mesh generation, defining the physics of the model, solving the problem, and visualizing the results. Boundary conditions consisted of the convective heat transfer coefficient and a constant free stream temperature. The three-dimensional energy equation for transient conditions was numerically solved to obtain heat flux and transient temperature values. The solver utilized finite volume method of discretization. To validate the simulation, actual data were obtained through experiment. The goodness of fit was evaluated using mean temperature difference (MTD). Also, t-test was used to detect significant differences between the data sets. Results showed that the simulations were able to estimate temperatures accurately with MTD of 0.50 and 0.69 °C for the HWT and EHWT, respectively. This indicates good agreement between the simulated and actual temperature values. The data included in the analysis were taken at different locations of probe punctures within the fruit. Moreover, t-tests showed no significant differences between the two data sets. Maximum heat fluxes obtained at the beginning of the treatments were 394.15 and 262.77 J.s-1 for HWT and EHWT, respectively. These values decreased abruptly at the first 10 seconds and gradual decrease was observed thereafter. Data on heat flux is necessary in the design of heaters. If underestimated, the heating component of a certain machine will not be able to provide enough heat required by certain operations. Otherwise, over-estimation will result in wasting of energy and resources. This study demonstrated that the simulation was able to estimate temperatures accurately. Thus, it can be used to evaluate the influence of various treatment conditions on the temperature-time history in mangoes. When combined with information on insect mortality and quality degradation kinetics, it could predict the efficacy of a particular treatment and guide appropriate selection of treatment conditions. The effect of various parameters on heat transfer rates, such as the boundary and initial conditions as well as the thermal properties of the material, can be systematically studied without performing experiments. Furthermore, the use of ANSYS software in modeling and simulation can be explored in modeling various systems and processes.

Keywords: heat transfer, heat treatment, mango, modeling and simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 247

Authors: Isabelle Barrett

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Natural watercourses provide a range of vital ecosystem services, notably freshwater provision. They also offer highly heterogeneous habitat which supports an extreme diversity of aquatic life. Exploitation of rivers, changing land use and flood prevention measures have led to habitat degradation and subsequent biodiversity loss; indeed, freshwater species currently face a disproportionate rate of extinction compared to their terrestrial and marine counterparts. Large woody debris (LWD) encompasses the trees, large branches and logs which fall into watercourses, and is responsible for important habitat characteristics. Historically, natural LWD has been removed from streams under the assumption that it is not aesthetically pleasing and is thus ecologically unfavourable, despite extensive evidence contradicting this. Restoration efforts aim to replace lost LWD in order to reinstate habitat heterogeneity. This paper aims to assess the current state of such restoration schemes for improving fluvial ecological health in the UK. A detailed review of the scientific literature was conducted alongside a meta-analysis of 25 UK-based projects involving LWD restoration. Projects were chosen for which sufficient information was attainable for analysis, covering a broad range of budgets and scales. The most effective strategies for river restoration encompass ecological success, stakeholder engagement and scientific advancement, however few projects surveyed showed sensitivity to all three; for example, only 32% of projects stated biological aims. Focus tended to be on stakeholder engagement and public approval, since this is often a key funding driver. Consequently, there is a tendency to focus on the aesthetic outcomes of a project, however physical habitat restoration does not necessarily lead to direct biodiversity increases. This highlights the significance of rivers as highly heterogeneous environments with multiple interlinked processes, and emphasises a need for a stronger scientific presence in project planning. Poor scientific rigour means monitoring is often lacking, with varying, if any, definitions of success which are rarely pre-determined. A tendency to overlook negative or neutral results was apparent, with unjustified focus often put on qualitative results. The temporal scale of monitoring is typically inadequate to facilitate scientific conclusions, with only 20% of projects surveyed reporting any pre-restoration monitoring. Furthermore, monitoring is often limited to a few variables, with biotic monitoring often fish-focussed. Due to their longer life cycles and dispersal capability, fish are usually poor indicators of environmental change, making it difficult to attribute any changes in ecological health to restoration efforts. Although the potential impact of LWD restoration may be positive, this method of restoration could simply be making short-term, small-scale improvements; without addressing the underlying symptoms of degradation, for example water quality, the issue cannot be fully resolved. Promotion of standardised monitoring for LWD projects could help establish a deeper understanding of the ecology surrounding the practice, supporting movement towards adaptive management in which scientific evidence feeds back to practitioners, enabling the design of more efficient projects with greater ecological success. By highlighting LWD, this study hopes to address the difficulties faced within river management, and emphasise the need for a more holistic international and inter-institutional approach to tackling problems associated with degradation.

Keywords: biological monitoring, ecological health, large woody debris, river management, river restoration

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Authors: Dibyendu Rakshit, Santosh K. Sarkar

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The study illustrates a comprehensive account of large-scale changes plankton community structure in relevance to water quality characteristics due to anthropogenic stresses, mainly concerned for Annual Gangasagar Festival (AGF) at the southern tip of Sagar Island of Indian Sundarban wetland for 3-year duration (2012-2014; n=36). This prograding, vulnerable and tide-dominated megadelta has been formed in the estuarine phase of the Hooghly Estuary infested by largest continuous tract of luxurious mangrove forest, enriched with high native flora and fauna. The sampling strategy was designed to characterize the changes in plankton community and water quality considering three diverse phases, namely during festival period (January) and its pre - (December) as well as post (February) events. Surface water samples were collected for estimation of different environmental variables as well as for phytoplankton and microzooplankton biodiversity measurement. The preservation and identification techniques of both biotic and abiotic parameters were carried out by standard chemical and biological methods. The intensive human activities lead to sharp ecological changes in the context of poor water quality index (WQI) due to high turbidity (14.02±2.34 NTU) coupled with low chlorophyll a (1.02±0.21 mg m-3) and dissolved oxygen (3.94±1.1 mg l-1), comparing to pre- and post-festival periods. Sharp reduction in abundance (4140 to 2997 cells l-1) and diversity (H′=2.72 to 1.33) of phytoplankton and microzooplankton tintinnids (450 to 328 ind l-1; H′=4.31 to 2.21) was very much pronounced. The small size tintinnid (average lorica length=29.4 µm; average LOD=10.5 µm) composed of Tintinnopsis minuta, T. lobiancoi, T. nucula, T. gracilis are predominant and reached some of the greatest abundances during the festival period. Results of ANOVA revealed a significant variation in different festival periods with phytoplankton (F= 1.77; p=0.006) and tintinnid abundance (F= 2.41; P=0.022). RELATE analyses revealed a significant correlation between the variations of planktonic communities with the environmental data (R= 0.107; p= 0.005). Three distinct groups were delineated from principal component analysis, in which a set of hydrological parameters acted as the causative factor(s) for maintaining diversity and distribution of the planktonic organisms. The pronounced adverse impact of anthropogenic stresses on plankton community could lead to environmental deterioration, disrupting the productivity of benthic and pelagic ecosystems as well as fishery potentialities which directly related to livelihood services. The festival can be considered as multiple drivers of changes in relevance to beach erosion, shoreline changes, pollution from discarded plastic and electronic wastes and destruction of natural habitats resulting loss of biodiversity. In addition, deterioration in water quality was also evident from immersion of idols, causing detrimental effects on aquatic biota. The authors strongly recommend for adopting integrated scientific and administrative strategies for resilience, sustainability and conservation of this megadelta.

Keywords: Gangasagar festival, phytoplankton, Sundarban megadelta, tintinnid

Procedia PDF Downloads 234

Authors: Hadush Kidane Meresa

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The hydrological extremes frequency analysis is the foundation for the hydraulic engineering design, flood protection, drought management and water resources management and planning to utilize the available water resource to meet the desired objectives of different organizations and sectors in a country. This spatial variation of the statistical characteristics of the extreme flood and drought events are key practice for regional flood and drought analysis and mitigation management. For different hydro-climate of the regions, where the data set is short, scarcity, poor quality and insufficient, the regionalization methods are applied to transfer at-site data to a region. This study aims in regional high and low flow frequency analysis for Poland River Basins. Due to high frequent occurring of hydrological extremes in the region and rapid water resources development in this basin have caused serious concerns over the flood and drought magnitude and frequencies of the river in Poland. The magnitude and frequency result of high and low flows in the basin is needed for flood and drought planning, management and protection at present and future. Hydrological homogeneous high and low flow regions are formed by the cluster analysis of site characteristics, using the hierarchical and C- mean clustering and PCA method. Statistical tests for regional homogeneity are utilized, by Discordancy and Heterogeneity measure tests. In compliance with results of the tests, the region river basin has been divided into ten homogeneous regions. In this study, frequency analysis of high and low flows using AM for high flow and 7-day minimum low flow series is conducted using six statistical distributions. The use of L-moment and LL-moment method showed a homogeneous region over entire province with Generalized logistic (GLOG), Generalized extreme value (GEV), Pearson type III (P-III), Generalized Pareto (GPAR), Weibull (WEI) and Power (PR) distributions as the regional drought and flood frequency distributions. The 95% percentile and Flow duration curves of 1, 7, 10, 30 days have been plotted for 10 stations. However, the cluster analysis performed two regions in west and east of the province where L-moment and LL-moment method demonstrated the homogeneity of the regions and GLOG and Pearson Type III (PIII) distributions as regional frequency distributions for each region, respectively. The spatial variation and regional frequency distribution of flood and drought characteristics for 10 best catchment from the whole region was selected and beside the main variable (streamflow: high and low) we used variables which are more related to physiographic and drainage characteristics for identify and delineate homogeneous pools and to derive best regression models for ungauged sites. Those are mean annual rainfall, seasonal flow, average slope, NDVI, aspect, flow length, flow direction, maximum soil moisture, elevation, and drainage order. The regional high-flow or low-flow relationship among one streamflow characteristics with (AM or 7-day mean annual low flows) some basin characteristics is developed using Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) and Generalized Least Square (GLS) regression model, providing a simple and effective method for estimation of flood and drought of desired return periods for ungauged catchments.

Keywords: flood , drought, frequency, magnitude, regionalization, stochastic, ungauged, Poland

Procedia PDF Downloads 602

Authors: Yujie Yuan, Yiyang Fan, Hong Fan

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Objective: The RNA methylation recognition protein Aly/REF export factor (ALYREF) is considered one type of “reader” protein acting as a recognition protein of m5C, has been reported involved in several biological progresses including cancer initiation and progression. 5-methylcytosine (m5C) is a conserved and prevalent RNA modification in all species, as accumulating evidence suggests its role in the promotion of tumorigenesis. It has been claimed that ALYREF mediates nuclear export of mRNA with m5C modification and regulates biological effects of cancer cells. However, the systematical regulatory pathways of ALYREF in cancer tissues have not been clarified, yet. Methods: The expression level of ALYREF in pan-cancer and their normal tissues was compared through the data acquired from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). The University of Alabama at Birmingham Cancer data analysis Portal UALCAN was used to analyze the relationship between ALYREF and clinical pathological features. The relationship between the expression level of ALYREF and prognosis of pan-cancer, and the correlation genes of ALYREF were figured out by using Gene Expression Correlation Analysis database GEPIA. Immune related genes were obtained from TISIDB (an integrated repository portal for tumor-immune system interactions). Immune-related research was conducted by using Estimation of STromal and Immune cells in MAlignant Tumor tissues using Expression data (ESTIMATE) and TIMER. Results: Based on the data acquired from TCGA, ALYREF has an obviously higher-level expression in various types of cancers compared with relevant normal tissues excluding thyroid carcinoma and kidney chromophobe. The immunohistochemical images on The Human Protein Atlas showed that ALYREF can be detected in cytoplasm, membrane, but mainly located in nuclear. In addition, a higher expression level of ALYREF in tumor tissue generates a poor prognosis in majority of cancers. According to the above results, cancers with a higher expression level of ALYREF compared with normal tissues and a significant correlation between ALYREF and prognosis were selected for further analysis. By using TISIDB, we found that portion of ALYREF co-expression genes (such as BIRC5, H2AFZ, CCDC137, TK1, and PPM1G) with high Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC) were involved in anti-tumor immunity or affect resistance or sensitivity to T cell-mediated killing. Furthermore, based on the results acquired from GEPIA, there was significant correlation between ALYREF and PD-L1. It was exposed that there is a negative correlation between the expression level of ALYREF and ESTIMATE score. Conclusion: The present study indicated that ALYREF plays a vital and universal role in cancer initiation and progression of pan-cancer through regulating mitotic progression, DNA synthesis and metabolic process, and RNA processing. The correlation between ALYREF and PD-L1 implied ALYREF may affect the therapeutic effect of immunotherapy of tumor. More evidence revealed that ALYREF may play an important role in tumor immunomodulation. The correlation between ALYREF and immune cell infiltration level indicated that ALYREF can be a potential therapeutic target. Exploring the regulatory mechanism of ALYREF in tumor tissues may expose the reason for poor efficacy of immunotherapy and offer more directions of tumor treatment.

Keywords: ALYREF, pan-cancer, immunotherapy, PD-L1

Procedia PDF Downloads 71

Authors: Roven Tumaneng, Angelica Kristina Monzon, Ralph Sedricke Lapuz, Jose Don De Alban, Jennica Paula Masigan, Joanne Rae Pales, Laila Monera Pornel, Dennis Tablazon, Rizza Karen Veridiano, Jackie Lou Wenceslao, Edmund Leo Rico, Neil Aldrin Mallari

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Most protected area management plans in the Philippines, particularly the smaller and more remote islands suffer from insufficient baseline data, which should provide the bases for formulating measureable conservation targets and appropriate management interventions for these protected areas. Attempts to synthesize available data particularly on cultural and socio-economic characteristic of local peoples within and outside protected areas also suffer from the lack of comprehensive and detailed inventories, which should be considered in designing adaptive management interventions to be used for those protected areas. Mt Guiting-guiting Natural Park (MGGNP) located in Sibuyan Island is one of the poorly studied protected areas in the Philippines. In this study, we determined the highly biologically important areas of the protected area using Maximum Entropy approach (MaxEnt) from environmental predictors (i.e., topographic, bioclimatic,land cover, and soil image layers) derived from global remotely sensed data and point occurrence data of species of birds and trees recorded during field surveys on the island. A total of 23 trigger species of birds and trees was modeled and stacked to generate species richness maps for biological high conservation value areas (HCVAs). Forest habitat change was delineated using dual-polarised L-band ALOS-PALSAR mosaic data at 25 meter spatial resolution, taken at two acquisition years 2007 and 2009 to provide information on forest cover ad habitat change in the island between year 2007 and 2009. Determining the livelihood guilds were also conducted using the data gathered from171 household interviews, from which demographic and livelihood variables were extracted (i.e., age, gender, number of household members, educational attainment, years of residency, distance from forest edge, main occupation, alternative sources of food and resources during scarcity months, and sources of these alternative resources).Using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Kruskal-Wallis test, the diversity and patterns of forest resource use by people in the island were determined with particular focus on the economic activities that directly and indirectly affect the population of key species as well as to identify levels of forest resource use by people in different areas of the park.Results showed that there are gaps in the area occupied by the natural park, as evidenced by the mismatch of the proposed HCVAs and the existing perimeters of the park. We found out that subsistence forest gathering was the possible main driver for forest degradation out of the eight livelihood guilds that were identified in the park. Determining the high conservation areas and identifyingthe anthropogenic factors that influence the species richness and abundance of key species in the different management zone of MGGNP would provide guidance for the design of a protected area management plan and future monitoring programs. However, through intensive communication and consultation with government stakeholders and local communities our results led to setting conservation targets in local development plans and serve as a basis for the reposition of the boundaries and reconfiguration of the management zones of MGGNP.

Keywords: conservation gaps, livelihood guilds, MaxEnt, protected area

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Authors: Shreya Saxena, Felix Miller-Molloy, Phillipa Bowen, Greg Fellows, Elizabeth Bowen

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Background: Complex fluid balance abnormalities are well-established post-neurosurgery and traumatic brain injury (TBI). The triple-phase response requires fluid management strategies reactive to urine output and sodium homeostasis as patients shift between Diabetes Insipidus (DI) and Syndrome of Inappropriate ADH (SIADH). It was observed, at a tertiary paediatric center, a relatively high prevalence of the above complications within a cohort of paediatric post-neurosurgical and TBI patients. An audit of the clinical practice against set institutional guidelines was undertaken and analyzed to understand why this was occurring. Based on those results, new guidelines were developed with structured educational packages for the specialist teams involved. This was then reaudited, and the findings were compared. Methods: Two independent audits were conducted across two time periods, pre and post guideline change. Primary data was collected retrospectively, including both qualitative and quantitative data sets from the CQUIN neurosurgical database and electronic medical records. All paediatric patients post posterior fossa (PFT) or supratentorial surgery or with a TBI were included. A literature review of evidence-based practice, initial audit data, and stakeholder feedback was used to develop new clinical guidelines and nursing standard operation procedures. Compliance against these newly developed guidelines was re-assessed and a thematic, trend-based analysis of the two sets of results was conducted. Results: Audit-1 January2017-June2018, n=80; Audit-2 January2020-June2021, n=30 (reduced operative capacity due to COVID-19 pandemic). Overall, improvements in the monitoring of both fluid balance and electrolyte trends were demonstrated; 51% vs. 77% and 78% vs. 94%, respectively. The number of clear fluid management plans documented postoperatively also increased (odds ratio of 4), leading to earlier recognition and management of evolving fluid-balance abnormalities. The local paediatric endocrine team was involved in the care of all complex cases and notified sooner for those considered to be developing DI or SIADH (14% to 35%). However, significant Na fluctuations (>12mmol in 24 hours) remained similar – 5 vs six patients – found to be due to complex pituitary hypothalamic pathology – and the recommended adaptive fluid management strategy was still not always used. Qualitative data regarding useability and understanding of fluid-balance abnormalities and the revised guidelines were obtained from health professionals via surveys and discussion in the specialist teams providing care. The feedback highlighted the new guidelines provided a more consistent approach to the post-operative care of these patients and was a better platform for communication amongst the different specialist teams involved. The potential limitation to our study would be the small sample size on which to conduct formal analyses; however, this reflects the population that we were investigating, which we cannot control. Conclusion: The revised clinical guidelines, based on audited data, evidence-based literature review and stakeholder consultations, have demonstrated an improvement in understanding of the neuro-endocrine complications that are possible, as well as increased compliance to post-operative monitoring of fluid balance and electrolytes in this cohort of patients. Emphasis has been placed on preventative rather than treatment of DI and SIADH. Consequently, this has positively impacted patient safety for the center and highlighted the importance of educational awareness and multi-disciplinary team working.

Keywords: post-operative, fluid-balance management, neuro-endocrine complications, paediatric

Procedia PDF Downloads 93

Authors: Prashant Gupta

Abstract:

Throughout India, temples have served as cultural centers, commerce hubs, art galleries, educational institutions, and social centers in addition to being places of worship since centuries. Across the country, there are over two million temples, which are crucial economic hubs, attracting devotees and tourists worldwide. In India, we have 53 temples per each 100,000 Indians. As per NSSO survey, the temple economy is worth about $40 billion and 2.32 per cent of GDP based on major temple’s survey, which only includes formal sector. It could be much larger as an actual estimation has not been done yet. In India, 43.1% of total economy represents informal sector. Over 10 billion domestic tourists visit to new destinations every year within India. Even 20 per cent of the 90 million foreign tourists visited Madurai and Mahabalipuram temples which became the most visited tourist spot in 2022. Recently the current central government in power have started revitalizing the ancient Indian civilization by reconstructing and beautifying the major temples of India i.e., Kashi Vishwanath Corridor, Mahakaleshwara Temple, Kedarnath, Ayodhya etc. The reason researcher chose Kashi as a case study because it is known as a Spiritual Capital of India, which is also the abode for the spread of Hinduism, Buddhism, Jainism and Sikkism, which are core Sanatan Dharmic practices. 17,800 Million INR Amount was spend to redevelop Kashi Vishwanath Corridor since 2019. RESEARCH OBJECTIVES 1. To assess historical contribution of temples in socio economic development and revival of Indic Civilization. 2. To examine the role of temples redevelopment for informal sector businesses. 3. To identify the sub-sectors of informal sector businesses 4. To identify products and services of informal businesses for investigation of marketing strategies and business development. PROPOSED METHODS AND PROCEDURES This study will follow a mixed approach, employing both qualitative and quantitative methods of research. To conduct the study, data will be collected from 500 informal business owners through structured questionnaire and interview instruments. The informal business owners will be selected using a systematic random sampling technique. In addition, documents from government offices of the last 10 years of tax collection will be reviewed to substantiate the study. To analyze the study, descriptive and econometric analysis techniques will be employed. EXPECTED CONTRIBUTION OF THE PROPOSED STUDY By studying the contribution of temple re-development on informal business creation and growth, the study will be beneficial to the informal business owners and the government. For the government, scientific and empirical evidence on the contribution of temple re-development for informal business creation and growth to give evidence the study will give based infrastructural development and boosting tax collection. For informal businesses, the study will give them a detailed insight on the nature of their business and the possible future growth potential of their business, and the alternative products and services supplying to their customers in the future. Studying informal businesses will help to identify the key products and services which are majorly profitable and possess potential to multiply and grow through correct product marketing strategies and business development.

Keywords: business development, informal sector businesses, services and products marketing, temple economics

Procedia PDF Downloads 81

Authors: Arthur Müller

Abstract:

The study treats human dimensions of hunting by conducting statistical data analysis and providing decision-making support by examples of good prefectural governance and successful wildlife management, crucial to reduce pest species and sustain a stable hunter population in the future. Therefore it analyzes recent revision of wildlife legislation, reveals differences in administrative management structures, as well as socio-demographic characteristics of hunters in correlation with harvest trends of sika deer and wild boar in 47 prefectures in Japan between 1990 and 2013. In a wider context, Japan’s decentralized license hunting system might take the potential future role of a regional pioneer in East Asia. Consequently, the study contributes to similar issues in premature hunting systems of South Korea and Taiwan. Firstly, a quantitative comparison of seven mainland regions was conducted in Hokkaido, Tohoku, Kanto, Chubu, Kinki, Chugoku, and Kyushu. Example prefectures were chosen by a cluster analysis. Shifts, differences, mean values and exponential growth rates between trap and gun hunters, age classes and common occupation types of hunters were statistically exterminated. While western Japan is characterized by high numbers of aged trap-hunters, occupied in agricultural- and forestry, the north-eastern prefectures show higher relative numbers of younger gun-hunters occupied in the field of production and process workers. With the exception of Okinawa island, most hunters in all prefectures are 60 years and older. Hence, unemployed and retired hunters are the fastest growing occupation group. Despite to drastic decrease in hunter population in absolute numbers, Hunting Recruitment Index indicated that all age classes tend to continue their hunting activity over a longer period, above ten years from 2004 to 2013 than during the former decade. Associated with a rapid population increase and distribution of sika deer and wild boar since 1978, a number of harvest from hunting and culling also have been rapidly increasing. Both wild boar hunting and culling is particularly high in western Japan, while sika hunting and culling proofs most successful in Hokkaido, central and western Japan. Since the Wildlife Protection and Proper Hunting Act in 1999 distinct prefectural hunting management authorities with different power, sets apply management approaches under the principles of subsidiarity and guidelines of the Ministry of Environment. Additionally, the Act on Special Measures for Prevention of Damage Related to Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries Caused by Wildlife from 2008 supports local hunters in damage prevention measures through subsidies by the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, which caused a rise of trap hunting, especially in western Japan. Secondly, prefectural staff in charge of wildlife management in seven regions was contacted. In summary, Hokkaido serves as a role model for dynamic, integrative, adaptive “feedback” management of Ezo sika deer, as well as a diverse network between management organizations, while Hyogo takes active measures to trap-hunt wild boars effectively. Both prefectures take the leadership in institutional performance and capacity. Northern prefectures in Tohoku, Chubu and Kanto region, firstly confronted with the emergence of wild boars and rising sika deer numbers, demand new institution and capacity building, as well as organizational learning.

Keywords: hunting and culling harvest trends, hunter socio-demographics, regional comparison, wildlife management approach

Procedia PDF Downloads 281

Authors: Leonie Bradfield, Stephen Fityus, John Simmons

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The shearing behavior of current and planned coal mine spoil dumps up to 400m in height is studied using large-sample-high-stress direct shear tests performed on a range of spoils common to the coalfields of Eastern Australia. The motivation for the study is to address industry concerns that some constructed spoil dump heights ( > 350m) are exceeding the scale ( ≤ 120m) for which reliable design information exists, and because modern geotechnical laboratories are not equipped to test representative spoil specimens at field-scale stresses. For more than two decades, shear strength estimation for spoil dumps has been based on either infrequent, very small-scale tests where oversize particles are scalped to comply with device specimen size capacity such that the influence of prototype-sized particles on shear strength is not captured; or on published guidelines that provide linear shear strength envelopes derived from small-scale test data and verified in practice by slope performance of dumps up to 120m in height. To date, these published guidelines appear to have been reliable. However, in the field of rockfill dam design there is a broad acceptance of a curvilinear shear strength envelope, and if this is applicable to coal mine spoils, then these industry-accepted guidelines may overestimate the strength and stability of dumps at higher stress levels. The pressing need to rationally define the shearing behavior of more representative spoil specimens at field-scale stresses led to the successful design, construction and operation of a large direct shear machine (LDSM) and its subsequent application to provide reliable design information for current and planned very-high dumps. The LDSM can test at a much larger scale, in terms of combined specimen size (720mm x 720mm x 600mm) and stress (σn up to 4.6MPa), than has ever previously been achieved using a direct shear machine for geotechnical testing of rockfill. The results of an extensive LDSM testing program on a wide range of coal-mine spoils are compared to a published framework that widely accepted by the Australian coal mining industry as the standard for shear strength characterization of mine spoil. A critical outcome is that the LDSM data highlights several non-compliant spoils, and stress-dependent shearing behavior, for which the correct application of the published framework will not provide reliable shear strength parameters for design. Shear strength envelopes developed from the LDSM data are also compared with dam engineering knowledge, where failure envelopes of rockfills are curved in a concave-down manner. The LDSM data indicates that shear strength envelopes for coal-mine spoils abundant with rock fragments are not in fact curved and that the shape of the failure envelope is ultimately determined by the strength of rock fragments. Curvilinear failure envelopes were found to be appropriate for soil-like spoils containing minor or no rock fragments, or hard-soil aggregates.

Keywords: coal mine, direct shear test, high dump, large scale, mine spoil, shear strength, spoil dump

Procedia PDF Downloads 161

Authors: Keita Nishio, Takashi Kaburagi, Yosuke Kurihara

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Recent advances in medical technology have served to enhance average life expectancy. However, the total time for which the patients are prescribed complete bedrest has also increased. With patients being required to maintain a constant lying posture- also called bedsore- development of a system to detect patient roll-over becomes imperative. For this purpose, extant studies have proposed the use of cameras, and favorable results have been reported. Continuous on-camera monitoring, however, tends to violate patient privacy. We have proposed unconstrained bio-signal measurement system that could detect body-motion during sleep and does not violate patient’s privacy. Therefore, in this study, we propose a roll-over detection method by the date obtained from the bi-signal measurement system. Signals recorded by the sensor were assumed to comprise respiration, pulse, body motion, and noise components. Compared the body-motion and respiration, pulse component, the body-motion, during roll-over, generate large vibration. Thus, analysis of the body-motion component facilitates detection of the roll-over tendency. The large vibration associated with the roll-over motion has a great effect on the Root Mean Square (RMS) value of time series of the body motion component calculated during short 10 s segments. After calculation, the RMS value during each segment was compared to a threshold value set in advance. If RMS value in any segment exceeded the threshold, corresponding data were considered to indicate occurrence of a roll-over. In order to validate the proposed method, we conducted experiment. A bi-directional microphone was adopted as a high-sensitivity pressure sensor and was placed between the mattress and bedframe. Recorded signals passed through an analog Band-pass Filter (BPF) operating over the 0.16-16 Hz bandwidth. BPF allowed the respiration, pulse, and body-motion to pass whilst removing the noise component. Output from BPF was A/D converted with the sampling frequency 100Hz, and the measurement time was 480 seconds. The number of subjects and data corresponded to 5 and 10, respectively. Subjects laid on a mattress in the supine position. During data measurement, subjects—upon the investigator's instruction—were asked to roll over into four different positions—supine to left lateral, left lateral to prone, prone to right lateral, and right lateral to supine. Recorded data was divided into 48 segments with 10 s intervals, and the corresponding RMS value for each segment was calculated. The system was evaluated by the accuracy between the investigator’s instruction and the detected segment. As the result, an accuracy of 100% was achieved. While reviewing the time series of recorded data, segments indicating roll-over tendencies were observed to demonstrate a large amplitude. However, clear differences between decubitus and the roll-over motion could not be confirmed. Extant researches possessed a disadvantage in terms of patient privacy. The proposed study, however, demonstrates more precise detection of patient roll-over tendencies without violating their privacy. As a future prospect, decubitus estimation before and after roll-over could be attempted. Since in this paper, we could not confirm the clear differences between decubitus and the roll-over motion, future studies could be based on utilization of the respiration and pulse components.

Keywords: bedsore, high-sensitivity pressure sensor, roll-over, unconstrained bio-signal measurement

Procedia PDF Downloads 121

Authors: Mohamed Emran, Giovanni Pardini, Maria Gispert, Mohamed Rashad

Abstract:

Land use and abandonment in semi-arid degraded ecosystems may cause regressive dynamics in vegetation cover affecting organic matter contents, soil nutrients and structural stability, thus reducing soil resistance to erosion. Mediterranean areas are generally subjected to climatic fluctuations, which modify soil conditions and hydrological processes, such as runoff and water infiltration within the upper soil horizons. Low erosion rates occur in very fragile and shallow soils with minor clay content progressively decrease organic carbon C and nitrogen N pools in the upper soil horizons. Seven soils were selected representing variant context of land use and abandonment at the Cap de Creus Peninsula, Catalonia, NE Spain, from recent cultivated vines and olive groves, mid abandoned forests standing under cork and pine trees, pasture to late abandoned Cistus and Erica scrubs. The aim of this work was to study the effect of changes in land use and abandonment on the depletion of soil organic carbon and nitrogen transported by runoff water in shallow soils after natural rainfall events during two years with different rainfall patterns (1st year with low rainfall and 2nd year with high rainfall) by i) monitoring the most significant soil erosion parameters at recorded rainfall events, ii) studying the most relevant soil physical and chemical characteristics on seasonal basis and iii) analysing the seasonal trends of depleted carbon and nitrogen and their interaction with soil surface compaction parameters. Significant seasonal variability was observed in the relevant soil physical and chemical parameters and soil erosion parameters in all soils to establish their evolution under land use and abandonment during two years of different rainfall patterns (214 and 487 mm per year), giving important indications on soil response to rainfall impacts. Erosion rates decreased significantly with the increasing of soil C and N under low and high rainfall. In cultivated soils, C and N depletion increased by 144% and 115%, respectively by 13% increase in erosion rates during the 1st year with respect to the 2nd year. Depleted C and N were proportionally higher in soils under vines and olive with vulnerable soil structure and low soil resilience leading to degradation, altering nutrients cycles and causing adverse impact on environmental quality. Statistical analysis underlined that, during the 1st year, soil surface was less effective in preserving stocks of organic resources leading to higher susceptibility to erosion with consequent C and N depletion. During the 2nd year, higher organic reserve and water storage occurred despite the increasing of C and N loss with an effective contribution from soil surface compaction parameters. The overall estimation during the two years indicated clear differences among soils under vines, olive, cork and pines, suggesting on the one hand, that current cultivation practices are inappropriate and that reforestation with pines may delay the achievement of better soil conditions. On the other hand, the natural succession of vegetation under Cistus, pasture and Erica suggests the recovery of good soil conditions.

Keywords: land abandonment, land use, nutrient's depletion, soil erosion

Procedia PDF Downloads 346

Authors: Mazlum Çelik, Burcu Gürkan Ercan, Ahmet Ayaz, Hilal Yakut İpekoğlu, Furkan Baltacı, Mustafa Kurtoğlu, Bilge Kalkavan, Sinem Küçükyılmaz, Hikmet Çağrı Yardımcı, Şeyma Sevgican, Cemile Gökçe Elkovan, Bilal Çayır, Mehmet Emin Düzcan

Abstract:

The earthquake research literature generally examines emotional, cognitive, and behavioral responses after an earthquake. Studies concerning the behavioral responses to earthquakes reveal that after the earthquake, people either flee in a panic or do not act according to the stereotype that they act irrationally and anti-socially and sometimes give rational and adaptive reactions. However, the rareness of research dealing with human behavior experiencing the earthquake moment makes it necessary to pay particular attention to these behavior patterns. In this direction, this study aims to examine human behavior indoors in case of rising earthquake intensity. In Turkey, located on geography in the earthquake zone, devastating earthquakes took place, such as in "Istanbul" with a magnitude of 7.4 in 1999 and in "Elazığ" with a magnitude of 6.8 in 2020. Occurred recently, the "Kahramanmaraş" earthquake affected 11 provinces, with a magnitude of 7.7 and 7.6 in 2023. In addition, there is expected to be a devastating earthquake in Istanbul, experts warn. For this reason, it is essential to understand human behavior for disaster risk. Management and pre-disaster preparedness to be effective and efficient and to take realistic measures to protect human life. Mazlum Çelik, Burcu Gürkan Ercan, Ahmet Ayaz, Hilal Yakut İpekoğlu, Furkan Baltacı, Mustafa Kurtoğlu, Bilge Kalkavan, Sinem Küçükyılmaz, Hikmet Çağrı Yardımcı, Şeyma Sevgican, Cemile Gökçe Elkovan, Bilal Çayır, Mehmet Emin Düzcan. In this study, which is currently part of a project supported by The Scientific and Technological Council of Turkey (TUBITAK), the indoor recordings during the earthquakes in Elazig on January 24, 2020, and in İzmir on October 30, 2020, are examined, and the people's behavior during the earthquake is analyzed. In this direction, video recordings taken from the YouTube archives of İzmir and Elazığ Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency (AFAD) Directorates and metropolitan municipalities are examined. The researchers have created an observation form in line with the information in the relevant literature to classify people's behavior during an earthquake. It is intended to determine the behavioral patterns by classifying according to the form and video analysis of the people heading toward the door, remaining stable, taking protective measures, turning to people, and engaging in "other" behaviors outside of these behaviors during the earthquake. A total of 60 video analyzes are carried out from Elazığ and İzmir. The descriptive statistic has been used with the SPSS 23.0 package program in the data analysis. It is found that in the event of an increase in the severity of the earthquake, unlike Elazığ, in İzmir, protective action is preferred to the act of remaining stable. In addition, it is observed that with the increase in the earthquake's intensity, women attempt to take more protective action while men head toward the door. In contrast, a rise is observed in the behavior of young people heading toward the door and taking protective actions, while there is a decrease in their behavior directing to people. These findings, unlike the literature, reveal that human behavior during earthquakes cannot be reduced to a single behavior pattern, such as drop-cover-hold-on. The results show that it is necessary to understand the behaviors of individuals during the earthquake and to develop practical policy proposals for combating earthquakes by considering sociocultural, geographical, and demographic variables.

Keywords: descriptive analysis, earthquake, human behaviour, disaster policy.

Procedia PDF Downloads 104

Authors: Stanislav Babaev, Vladimir Cuk, Sjef Cobben, Jan Desmet

Abstract:

The procedures for performing harmonic studies for medium-voltage distribution feeders have become relatively mature topics since the early 1980s. The efforts of various electric power engineers and researchers were mainly focused on handling large harmonic non-linear loads connected scarcely at several buses of medium-voltage feeders. In order to assess the impact of these loads on the voltage quality of the distribution system, specific modeling and simulation strategies were proposed. These methodologies could deliver a reasonable estimation accuracy given the requirements of least computational efforts and reduced complexity. To uphold these requirements, certain analysis assumptions have been made, which became de facto standards for establishing guidelines for harmonic analysis. Among others, typical assumptions include balanced conditions of the study and the negligible impact of impedance frequency characteristics of various power system components. In latter, skin and proximity effects are usually omitted, and resistance and reactance values are modeled based on the theoretical equations. Further, the simplifications of the modelling routine have led to the commonly accepted practice of neglecting phase angle diversity effects. This is mainly associated with developed load models, which only in a handful of cases are representing the complete harmonic behavior of a certain device as well as accounting on the harmonic interaction between grid harmonic voltages and harmonic currents. While these modelling practices were proven to be reasonably effective for medium-voltage levels, similar approaches have been adopted for low-voltage distribution systems. Given modern conditions and massive increase in usage of residential electronic devices, recent and ongoing boom of electric vehicles, and large-scale installing of distributed solar power, the harmonics in current low-voltage grids are characterized by high degree of variability and demonstrate sufficient diversity leading to a certain level of cancellation effects. It is obvious, that new modelling algorithms overcoming previously made assumptions have to be accepted. In this work, a simulation approach aimed to deal with some of the typical assumptions is proposed. A practical low-voltage feeder is modeled in PowerFactory. In order to demonstrate the importance of diversity effect and harmonic interaction, previously developed measurement-based models of photovoltaic inverter and battery charger are used as loads. The Python-based script aiming to supply varying voltage background distortion profile and the associated current harmonic response of loads is used as the core of unbalanced simulation. Furthermore, the impact of uncertainty of feeder frequency-impedance characteristics on total harmonic distortion levels is shown along with scenarios involving linear resistive loads, which further alter the impedance of the system. The comparative analysis demonstrates sufficient differences with cases when all the assumptions are in place, and results indicate that new modelling and simulation procedures need to be adopted for low-voltage distribution systems with high penetration of non-linear loads and renewable generation.

Keywords: electric power system, harmonic distortion, power quality, public low-voltage network, harmonic modelling

Procedia PDF Downloads 159