Search results for: earthquake risk management

Authors: Savaş Durduran, Ceren Yağci

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The nature of the events going on in the world, when people’s lives are considered significantly affects natural disasters. Considering thousands of years of earth history, it is seen that many natural disasters, particularly earthquakes located in our country. Behaving cautious, without occurring hazards, after being disaster is much easier and cost effective than returning to the normal life. The four phases of disaster management in the whole world has been described as; pre-disaster preparedness and mitigation, post-disaster response and rehabilitation studies. Pre-disaster and post-disaster phases has half the weight of disaster management. How much would be prepared for disaster, no matter how disaster damage reducing work gives important, we will be less harm from material and spiritual sense. To do this in a systematic way we use the Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The execution of the emergency services to be on time and emergency control mechanism against the development the most appropriate decision Geographic Information System GIS) can be useful. The execution of the emergency services to be on time and emergency control mechanism towards for developing to be the most appropriate decision Geographic Information System (GIS) can be useful. The results obtained by using products with GIS analysis of seismic data to the city, manager of the city required information and data that can be more healthy and satisfies the appropriate policy decisions can be produced. In this study, using ArcGIS software and benefiting reports of the earthquake that occurred in the Konya city, spatial and non-spatial data consisting databases created, by the help of this database a potential disaster management aimed in the city of Konya regard to urban earthquake, GIS-aided analyzes were performed.

Keywords: geographic information systems (GIS), disaster management, emergency control mechanism, Konya

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Authors: Reza Akbari, Jalal MontazeriFashtali, PeymanMomeni Taromsari

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Pipeline systems, play an important role as a vital element in reducing or increasing the risk of earthquake damage and vulnerability. Pipelines are suitable, cheap, fast, and safe routes for transporting oil, gas, water, sewage, etc. The sepipelines must pass from a wide geographical area; hence they will structurally face different environmental and underground factors of earthquake forces’ effect. Therefore, structural engineering analysis and design for this type of lines requires the understanding of relevant parameters behavior and lack of familiarity with them can cause irreparable damages and risks to design and execution, especially in the face of earthquakes. Today, buried pipelines play an important role in human life cycle, thus, studying the vulnerability of pipeline systems is of particular importance. This study examines the behavior of buried pipelines affected by strike-slip fault. Studied fault is perpendicular to the tube axis and causes stress and deformation in the tube by sliding horizontally. In this study, the pipe-soil interaction is accurately simulated, so that one can examine the large displacements and strains, nonlinear material behavior and contact and friction conditions of soil and pipe. The results can be used for designing buried pipes and determining the amount of fault displacement that causes the failure of the buried pipes.

Keywords: pipe lines , earthquake , fault , soil-fault interaction

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Authors: Mohammad H. Yarmohammadian, Masoud Ferdosi, Abbas Haghshenas, Fatemeh Rezaei

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Surgical procedures aim at preserving human life and improving quality of their life. However, there are many potential risk sources that can cause serious harm to patients. For centuries, managers believed that technical competence of a surgeon is the only key to a successful surgery. But over the past decade, risks are considered in terms of process-based safety procedures, teamwork and inter departmental communication. Aims: This study aims to determine how the process- biased surgical risk management should be done in terms of project management tool named ABS (Activity Breakdown Structure). Settings and Design: This study was conducted in two stages. First, literature review and meeting with professors was done to determine principles and framework of surgical risk management. Next, responsible teams for surgical patient journey were involved in following meeting to develop the process- biased surgical risk management. Methods and Material: This study is a qualitative research in which focus groups with the inductive approach is used. Sampling was performed to achieve representativeness through intensity sampling biased on experience and seniority. Analysis Method used: context analysis of interviews and consensus themes extracted from FDG meetings discussion was the analysis tool. Results: we developed the patient journey process in 5 main phases, 24 activities and 108 tasks. Then, responsible teams, transposition and allocated places for performing determined. Some activities and tasks themes were repeated in each phases like patient identification and records review because of their importance. Conclusions: Risk management of surgical departments is significant as this facility is the hospital’s largest cost and revenue center. Good communication between surgical team and other clinical teams outside surgery department through process- biased perspective could improve safety of patient under this procedure.

Keywords: risk management, activity breakdown structure (ABS), surgical department, medical sciences

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Authors: Kangujam Monika, Kiranbala Devi Thokchom, Soibam Sandhyarani Devi

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Earthquake is a major natural hazard in India. Manipur, located in the North-Eastern Region of India, is one of the most affected location in the region prone to earthquakes since it lies in an area where Indian and Eurasian tectonic plates meet and is in seismic Zone V which is the most severe intensity zone, according to IS Code. Some recent earthquakes recorded in Manipur are M 6.7 epicenter at Tamenglong (January 4, 2016), M 5.2 epicenter at Churachandpur (February 24, 2017) and most recent M 4.4 epicenter at Thoubal (June 19, 2017). In these recent earthquakes, some houses and buildings were damaged, landslides were also occurred. A field study was carried out. An overview of the various causal factors involved in triggering of earthquake in Manipur has been discussed. It is found that improper planning, poor design, negligence, structural irregularities, poor quality materials, construction of foundation without proper site soil investigation and non-implementation of remedial measures, etc., are possibly the main causal factors for damage in Manipur during earthquake. The study also suggests, though the proper design of structure and foundation along with soil investigation, ground improvement methods, use of modern techniques of construction, counseling with engineer, mass awareness, etc., might be effective solution to control the hazard in many locations. An overview on the analysis pertaining to earthquake in Manipur together with on-going detailed site specific geotechnical investigation were presented.

Keywords: Manipur, earthquake, hazard, structure, soil

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Authors: Alba Ballester Ciuró, Marc Pares Franzi

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While coming decades are likely to see a higher flood risk in Europe and greater socio-economic damages, traditional flood risk management has become inefficient. In response to that, new approaches such as capacity building and public participation have recently been incorporated in natural hazards mitigation policy (i.e. Sendai Framework for Action, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports and EU Floods Directive). By integrating capacity building and public participation, we present a research concerning the promotion of participatory social capacity building actions for flood risk mitigation at the local level. Social capacities have been defined as the resources and abilities available at individual and collective level that can be used to anticipate, respond to, cope with, recover from and adapt to external stressors. Social capacity building is understood as a process of identifying communities’ social capacities and of applying collaborative strategies to improve them. This paper presents a proposal of systematization of participatory social capacity building process for flood risk mitigation, and its implementation in a high risk of flooding area in the Ebro river basin: Ribera Alta del Ebro. To develop this process, we designed and tested a tool that allows measuring and building five types of social capacities: knowledge, motivation, networks, participation and finance. The tool implementation has allowed us to assess social capacities in the area. Upon the results of the assessment we have developed a co-decision process with stakeholders and flood risk management authorities on which participatory activities could be employed to improve social capacities for flood risk mitigation. Based on the results of this process, and focused on the weaker social capacities, we developed a set of participatory actions in the area oriented to general public and stakeholders: informative sessions on flood risk management plan and flood insurances, interpretative river descents on flood risk management (with journalists, teachers, and general public), interpretative visit to the floodplain, workshop on agricultural insurance, deliberative workshop on project funding, deliberative workshops in schools on flood risk management (playing with a flood risk model). The combination of obtaining data through a mixed-methods approach of qualitative inquiry and quantitative surveys, as well as action research through co-decision processes and pilot participatory activities, show us the significant impact of public participation on social capacity building for flood risk mitigation and contributes to the understanding of which main factors intervene in this process.

Keywords: flood risk management, public participation, risk reduction, social capacities, vulnerability assessment

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Authors: Mojtaba Sadeghi, Farshid Baniassadi, Hamed Kashani

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One of the challenging issues faced by seismic retrofitting consultants and employers is quick decision-making on the demolition or retrofitting of a structure at the current time or in the future. For this reason, the existing models proposed by researchers have only covered one of the aspects of cost, execution method, and structural vulnerability. Given the effect of each factor on the final decision, it is crucial to devise a new comprehensive model capable of simultaneously covering all the factors. This study attempted to provide an integrated framework that can be utilized to select the most appropriate earthquake risk mitigation solution for buildings. This framework can overcome the limitations of current models by taking into account several factors such as cost, execution method, risk-taking and structural failure. In the newly proposed model, the database and essential information about retrofitting projects are developed based on the historical data on a retrofit project. In the next phase, an analysis is conducted in order to assess the vulnerability of the building under study. Then, artificial neural networks technique is employed to calculate the cost of retrofitting. While calculating the current price of the structure, an economic analysis is conducted to compare demolition versus retrofitting costs. At the next stage, the optimal method is identified. Finally, the implementation of the framework was demonstrated by collecting data concerning 155 previous projects.

Keywords: decision making, demolition, construction management, seismic retrofit

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Authors: Sohanur Rahman, Elisabeth Sinnewe, Larelle (Ellie) Chapple, Sarah Osborne

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Greater political attention to global climate change exposes firms to a higher level of political uncertainty, which can lead to adverse capital market consequences. However, a higher level of discourse on environment-specific political risk (EPR) between management and investors can mitigate information asymmetry, followed by less stock price crash risk. This study examines whether EPR discourse in discourse in the earnings conference calls (ECC) reduces firm-level stock price crash risk in the US market. This research also explores if adverse disclosures via media channels further moderates the association between EPR on crash risk. Employing a dataset of 28,933 firm-year observations from 2002 to 2020, the empirical analysis reveals that EPR discourse in ECC reduces future stock price crash risk. However, adverse disclosures via media channels can offset the favourable effect of EPR discourse on crash risk. The results are robust to the potential endogeneity concern in a quasi-natural experiment setting.

Keywords: earnings conference calls, environment, environment-specific political risk discourse, environmental disclosures, information asymmetry, reputation risk, stock price crash risk

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Authors: Chokri Slim

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The objective of this research is attempting to respond to this question: Is there a significant difference between the regression model and statistical learning models in predicting credit risk management? A Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model was compared with neural networks including Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), and a Support vector regression (SVR). The population of this study includes 50 listed Banks in Tunis Stock Exchange (TSE) market from 2000 to 2016. Firstly, we show the factors that have significant effect on the quality of loan portfolios of banks in Tunisia. Secondly, it attempts to establish that the systematic use of objective techniques and methods designed to apprehend and assess risk when considering applications for granting credit, has a positive effect on the quality of loan portfolios of banks and their future collectability. Finally, we will try to show that the bank governance has an impact on the choice of methods and techniques for analyzing and measuring the risks inherent in the banking business, including the risk of non-repayment. The results of empirical tests confirm our claims.

Keywords: credit risk management, multiple linear regression, principal components analysis, artificial neural networks, support vector machines

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Authors: Amirhossein Karamoozian, Desheng Wu, Behzad Abbasnejad

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Building information modelling (BIM) is a new technology to enhance the efficiency of project management in the construction industry. In addition to the potential benefits of this useful technology, there are various risks and obstacles to applying it in construction projects. In this study, a decision making approach is presented for risk assessment in BIM adoption in construction projects. Various risk factors of exerting BIM during different phases of the project lifecycle are identified with the help of Delphi method, experts’ opinions and related literature. Afterward, Shannon’s entropy and Fuzzy TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Situation) are applied to derive priorities of the identified risk factors. Results indicated that lack of knowledge between professional engineers about workflows in BIM and conflict of opinions between different stakeholders are the risk factors with the highest priority.

Keywords: risk, BIM, fuzzy TOPSIS, construction projects

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Authors: Ritsuko Kawasaki, Takeshi Hiromatsu

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Management is required to understand all information security risks within an organization, and to make decisions on which information security risks should be treated in what level by allocating how much amount of cost. However, such decision-making is not usually easy, because various measures for risk treatment must be selected with the suitable application levels. In addition, some measures may have objectives conflicting with each other. It also makes the selection difficult. Therefore, this paper provides a model which supports the selection of measures by applying multi-objective analysis to find an optimal solution. Additionally, a list of measures is also provided to make the selection easier and more effective without any leakage of measures.

Keywords: information security risk treatment, selection of risk measures, risk acceptance, multi-objective optimization

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Authors: Wencong Lu, Abdul Latif, Raza Ullah, Subhan Ullah

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Agricultural production is subject to risk and the attitudes of producers toward risk, in turn, may be affected by certain socioeconomic characteristics of producers. Although, it is important to assess the risk attitude of farmers and their perception towards different calamitous risk sources for better understanding of their risk management adoption decisions, to the best of our knowledge no studies have been carried out to analyze the risk attitude and risk perceptions in the context of tobacco production in Pakistan. Therefore the study in hand is conducted with an attempt to overcome the gap in existing literature by analyzing different catastrophic risk sources faced by tobacco growers, their attitude towards risk and the effect of socioeconomic and demographic characteristics, farmers’ participation in contract farming and off-farm diversification on their risk attitude and risk perception. Around 78% of Pakistan’s entire tobacco crop and nearly all of the country’s Flue-Cured Virginia (FCV) tobacco is produced in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) province alone. The yield/hectare of tobacco produced in KPK province is 14% higher than the global average and 22 % higher than national average. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province was selected as main study area as nearly all of the country’s Flue-Cured Virginia (FCV) tobacco is produced in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) province alone. Six districts were purposely selected based on their contribution in overall production for the last five years which accounts for more than 94.84% of the tobacco production in KPK province. Specific objectives taken into considerations for this study are the risk attitude of the farmers for growing FCV tobacco crop, farmers’ risk perception for different risk sources related to tobacco production (as far as the incidence and severity of each risk source is concerned) and the effect of socioeconomic characteristics, contract farming participation and off-farm diversification (income) on the risk attitude and risk perception of FCV tobacco growers.

Keywords: risk attitude, risk perception, contract farming, off-farm diversification, probit model

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Authors: Isidro Perez, Maryam Nazari

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Numerous earthquakes, which have taken place across the world, led to catastrophic damage and collapse of structures (e.g., 1971 San Fernando; 1995 Kobe-Japan; and 2010 Chile earthquakes). Engineers are constantly studying methods to moderate the effect this phenomenon has on structures to further reduce damage, costs, and ultimately to provide life safety to occupants. However, there are regions where structures, cities, or water reservoirs are built near fault lines. When an earthquake occurs near the fault lines, they can be categorized as near-field earthquakes. In contrary, a far-field earthquake occurs when the region is further away from the seismic source. A near-field earthquake generally has a higher initial peak resulting in a larger seismic response, when compared to a far-field earthquake ground motion. These larger responses may result in serious consequences in terms of structural damage which can result in a high risk for the public’s safety. Unfortunately, the response of structures subjected to near-field records are not properly reflected in the current building design specifications. For example, in ASCE 7-10, the design response spectrum is mostly based on the far-field design-level earthquakes. This may result in the catastrophic damage of structures that are not properly designed for near-field earthquakes. This research investigates the knowledge that the effect of near-field earthquakes has on the response of structures. To fully examine this topic, a structure was designed following the current seismic building design specifications, e.g. ASCE 7-10 and ACI 318-14, being analytically modeled, utilizing the SAP2000 software. Next, utilizing the FEMA P695 report, several near-field and far-field earthquakes were selected, and the near-field earthquake records were scaled to represent the design-level ground motions. Upon doing this, the prototype structural model, created using SAP2000, was subjected to the scaled ground motions. A Linear Time History Analysis and Pushover analysis were conducted on SAP2000 for evaluation of the structural seismic responses. On average, the structure experienced an 8% and 1% increase in story drift and absolute acceleration, respectively, when subjected to the near-field earthquake ground motions. The pushover analysis was ran to find and aid in properly defining the hinge formation in the structure when conducting the nonlinear time history analysis. A near-field ground motion is characterized by a high-energy pulse, making it unique to other earthquake ground motions. Therefore, pulse extraction methods were used in this research to estimate the maximum response of structures subjected to near-field motions. The results will be utilized in the generation of a design spectrum for the estimation of design forces for buildings subjected to NF ground motions.

Keywords: near-field, pulse, pushover, time-history

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Authors: Fumiya Sugino, Naohiro Nakamura, Yuji Miyazu

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In earthquake resistant design of buildings, evaluation of vibration characteristics is important. In recent years, due to the increment of super high-rise buildings, the evaluation of response is important for not only the first mode but also higher modes. The knowledge of vibration characteristics in buildings is mostly limited to the first mode and the knowledge of higher modes is still insufficient. In this paper, using earthquake observation records of a SRC building by applying frequency filter to ARX model, characteristics of first and second modes were studied. First, we studied the change of the eigen frequency and the damping ratio during the 3.11 earthquake. The eigen frequency gradually decreases from the time of earthquake occurrence, and it is almost stable after about 150 seconds have passed. At this time, the decreasing rates of the 1st and 2nd eigen frequencies are both about 0.7. Although the damping ratio has more large error than the eigen frequency, both the 1st and 2nd damping ratio are 3 to 5%. Also, there is a strong correlation between the 1st and 2nd eigen frequency, and the regression line is y=3.17x. In the damping ratio, the regression line is y=0.90x. Therefore 1st and 2nd damping ratios are approximately the same degree. Next, we study the eigen frequency and damping ratio from 1998 after 3.11 earthquakes, the final year is 2014. In all the considered earthquakes, they are connected in order of occurrence respectively. The eigen frequency slowly declined from immediately after completion, and tend to stabilize after several years. Although it has declined greatly after the 3.11 earthquake. Both the decresing rate of the 1st and 2nd eigen frequencies until about 7 years later are about 0.8. For the damping ratio, both the 1st and 2nd are about 1 to 6%. After the 3.11 earthquake, the 1st increases by about 1% and the 2nd increases by less than 1%. For the eigen frequency, there is a strong correlation between the 1st and 2nd, and the regression line is y=3.17x. For the damping ratio, the regression line is y=1.01x. Therefore, it can be said that the 1st and 2nd damping ratio is approximately the same degree. Based on the above results, changes in eigen frequency and damping ratio are summarized as follows. In the long-term study of the eigen frequency, both the 1st and 2nd gradually declined from immediately after completion, and tended to stabilize after a few years. Further it declined after the 3.11 earthquake. In addition, there is a strong correlation between the 1st and 2nd, and the declining time and the decreasing rate are the same degree. In the long-term study of the damping ratio, both the 1st and 2nd are about 1 to 6%. After the 3.11 earthquake, the 1st increases by about 1%, the 2nd increases by less than 1%. Also, the 1st and 2nd are approximately the same degree.

Keywords: eigenfrequency, damping ratio, ARX model, earthquake observation records

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Authors: Issam Aouari, Abdelmalek Abdelhamid

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For seismologists, the characterization of seismic demand should include the amplitude and duration of strong shaking in the system. The duration of ground shaking is one of the key parameters in earthquake resistant design of structures. This paper proposes a nonlinear statistical model to estimate earthquake ground motion duration in soft soils using multiple seismicity indicators. Three definitions of ground motion duration proposed by literature have been applied. With a comparative study, we select the most significant definition to use for predict the duration. A stochastic model is presented for the McCann and Shah Method using nonlinear regression analysis based on a data set for moment magnitude, source to site distance and site conditions. The data set applied is taken from PEER strong motion databank and contains shallow earthquakes from different regions in the world; America, Turkey, London, China, Italy, Chili, Mexico...etc. Main emphasis is placed on soft site condition. The predictive relationship has been developed based on 600 records and three input indicators. Results have been compared with others published models. It has been found that the proposed model can predict earthquake ground motion duration in soft soils for different regions and sites conditions.

Keywords: duration, earthquake, prediction, regression, soft soil

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Authors: Kamal, Adil Ahmad

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Earthquakes are among the most versatile natural and dynamic processes, and hence a fractal model is considered to be the best representative of the same. We present a novel method to process and analyse information hidden in earthquake sequences using Fractal Dimensions and Iterative Function Systems (IFS). Spatial and temporal variations in the fractal dimensions of seismicity observed around the Indian peninsula in last 30 years are studied. This was used as a possible precursor before large earthquakes in the region. IFS images for observed seismicity in the Himalayan belt were also obtained. We scan the whole data set and coarse grain of a selected window to reduce it to four bins. A critical analysis of four-cornered chaos-game clearly shows that the spatial variation in earthquake occurrences in Himalayan range is not random. Two subzones of Himalaya have a tendency to follow each other in time.

Keywords: earthquakes, fractals, Himalaya, iterated function systems

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Authors: Umesh Kumar Singh, Chanchala Joshi

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With increasing dependency on IT infrastructure, the main objective of a system administrator is to maintain a stable and secure network, with ensuring that the network is robust enough against malicious network users like attackers and intruders. Security risk management provides a way to manage the growing threats to infrastructures or system. This paper proposes a framework for risk level estimation which uses vulnerability database National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) National Vulnerability Database (NVD) and the Common Vulnerability Scoring System (CVSS). The proposed framework measures the frequency of vulnerability exploitation; converges this measured frequency with standard CVSS score and estimates the security risk level which helps in automated and reasonable security management. In this paper equation for the Temporal score calculation with respect to availability of remediation plan is derived and further, frequency of exploitation is calculated with determined temporal score. The frequency of exploitation along with CVSS score is used to calculate the security risk level of the system. The proposed framework uses the CVSS vectors for risk level estimation and measures the security level of specific network environment, which assists system administrator for assessment of security risks and making decision related to mitigation of security risks.

Keywords: CVSS score, risk level, security measurement, vulnerability category

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Authors: Sandija Zeverte-Rivza, Irina Pilvere, Baiba Rivza

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The use of renewable energy sources incl. biogas has become topical in accordance with the increasing demand for energy, decrease of fossil energy resources and the efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as well as to increase energy independence from the territories where fossil energy resources are available. As the technologies of biogas production from agricultural biomass develop, risk assessment and risk management become necessary for farms producing such a renewable energy. The need for risk assessments has become particularly topical when discussions on changing the biogas policy in the EU take place, which may influence the development of the sector in the future, as well as the operation of existing biogas facilities and their income level. The current article describes results of the risk assessment for farms producing biomass from agriculture biomass in Latvia, the risk assessment system included 24 risks, that affect the whole biogas production process and the obtained results showed the high significance of political and production risks.

Keywords: biogas production, risks, risk assessment, biosystems engineering

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Authors: M. V. Shivaani, P. K. Jain, Surendra S. Yadav

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Risk management has been gaining extensive focus from international organizations like Committee of Sponsoring Organizations and Financial Stability Board, and, the foundation of such an effective and efficient risk management system lies in a strong risk governance structure. In view of this, an attempt (perhaps a first of its kind) has been made to develop a risk governance index, which could be used as proxy for quality of risk governance structures. The index (normative framework) is based on eleven variables, namely, size of board, board diversity in terms of gender, proportion of executive directors, executive/non-executive status of chairperson, proportion of independent directors, CEO duality, chief risk officer (CRO), risk management committee, mandatory committees, voluntary committees and existence/non-existence of whistle blower policy. These variables are scored on a scale of 1 to 5 with the exception of the variables, namely, status of chairperson and CEO duality (which have been scored on a dichotomous scale with the score of 3 or 5). In case there is a legal/statutory requirement in respect of above-mentioned variables and there is a non-compliance with such requirement a score of one has been envisaged. Though there is no legal requirement, for the larger part of study, in context of CRO, risk management committee and whistle blower policy, still a score of 1 has been assigned in the event of their non-existence. Recognizing the importance of these variables in context of risk governance structure and the fact that the study basically focuses on risk governance, the absence of these variables has been equated to non-compliance with a legal/statutory requirement. Therefore, based on this the minimum score is 15 and the maximum possible is 55. In addition, an attempt has been made to explore the determinants of this index. For this purpose, the sample consists of non-financial companies (429) that constitute S&P CNX500 index. The study covers a 10 years period from April 1, 2005 to March 31, 2015. Given the panel nature of data, Hausman test was applied, and it suggested that fixed effects regression would be appropriate. The results indicate that age and size of firms have significant positive impact on its risk governance structures. Further, post-recession period (2009-2015) has witnessed significant improvement in quality of governance structures. In contrast, profitability (positive relationship), leverage (negative relationship) and growth (negative relationship) do not have significant impact on quality of risk governance structures. The value of rho indicates that about 77.74% variation in risk governance structures is due to firm specific factors. Given the fact that each firm is unique in terms of its risk exposure, risk culture, risk appetite, and risk tolerance levels, it appears reasonable to assume that the specific conditions and circumstances that a company is beset with, could be the biggest determinants of its risk governance structures. Given the recommendations put forth in the paper (particularly for regulators and companies), the study is expected to be of immense utility in an important yet neglected aspect of risk management.

Keywords: corporate governance, ERM, risk governance, risk management

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Authors: Mert Kıranç, Ekrem Duman, Murat Özbilen

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In order to achieve new product development (NPD) activities on time and within budgetary constraints, the NPD managers need a well-designed methodology. This study intends to create an integrated project management methodology for the ones who focus on new product development projects. In the scope of the study, four different management systems are combined. These systems are called as 'Schedule-oriented Stage-Gate Method, Risk Management, Change Management and Earned Value Management'. New product development term is quite common in many different industries such as defense industry, construction, health care/dental, higher education, fast moving consumer goods, white goods, electronic devices, marketing and advertising and software development. All product manufacturers run against each other’s for introducing a new product to the market. In order to achieve to produce a more competitive product in the market, an optimum project management methodology is chosen, and this methodology is adapted to company culture. The right methodology helps the company to present perfect product to the customers at the right time. The benefits of proposed methodology are discussed as an application by a company. As a result, how the integrated methodology improves the efficiency and how it achieves the success of the project are unfolded.

Keywords: project, project management, management methodology, new product development, risk management, change management, earned value, stage-gate

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Authors: Amany A. Ragheb, Ghada Ragheb, Abd ElRahman A.

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Egypt has a countless heritage of mansions, castles, cities, towns, villages, industrial and manufacturing sites. This richness of heritage provides endless and matchless prospects for culture. Despite being famous worldwide, Egypt’s heritage still is in constant need of protection. Political conflicts and religious revolutions form a direct threat to buildings in various areas, historic, archaeological sites, and religious monuments. Egypt has witnessed two revolutions in less than 60 years; both had an impact on its architectural heritage. In this paper, the authors aim to review legal and policy framework to protect the cultural heritage and present the risk management strategy for cultural heritage in conflict. Through a review of selected international models of devastated architectural heritage in conflict zones and highlighting some of their changes, we can learn from the experiences of other countries to assist towards the development of a methodology to halt the plundering of architectural heritage. Finally, the paper makes an effort to enhance the formulation of a risk management strategy for protection and conservation of cultural heritage, through which to end the plundering of Egypt’s architectural legacy in the Egyptian community (revolutions, 1952 and 2011); and by presenting to its surrounding community the benefits derived from maintaining it.

Keywords: cultural heritage, legal regulation, risk management, preservation

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Authors: Amira Zatir, Abderahmane Mokhtari, Amina Foufa, Sara Zatir

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It exists in several regions in the world, of numerous historic monuments, buildings and housing environment, built in traditional ways which survive for earthquakes, even in zones where the seismic risk is particularly raised. These constructions, stemming from vernacular architecture, allow, through their resistances in the time earthquakes, to identify the various sismo-resistant "local" techniques. Through the examples and the experiences presented, the remark which can be made, is that in the traditional built, two major principles in a way opposite, govern the constructions in earthquake-resistant. It is about the very big flexibility, whom answer very light constructions, like the Japanese wooden constructions, Turkish and even Chinese; that of the very big rigidity to which correspond constructions in masonry in particular stone, more or less heavy and massive, which we meet in particular in the Mediterranean Basin, and in the historic sanctuary of Machu Pacchu. In it sensible and well-reflected techniques of construction are added, of which the use of the humble materials such as the earth and the adobe. The ancient communities were able to face the seismic risks, thanks to them know-how reflected in their intelligently designed constructions, testifying of a local seismic culture.

Keywords: earthquake, architecture, traditional, construction, resistance

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Authors: Arvind Srivastav, Tarun Kanti Bhattacharyya

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The north-eastern, Himalayan, and Eastern Ghats Belt of India comprise of earthquake-prone, remote, and hilly terrains. Earthquakes have caused enormous damages in these regions in the past. A wireless sensor network based earthquake early warning system (EEWS) is being developed to mitigate the damages caused by earthquakes. It consists of sensor nodes, distributed over the region, that perform majority voting of the output of the seismic sensors in the vicinity, and relay a message to a base station to alert the residents when an earthquake is detected. At the heart of the EEWS is a low-power two-stage seismic sensor that continuously tracks seismic events from incoming three-axis accelerometer signal at the first-stage, and, in the presence of a seismic event, triggers the second-stage P-wave detector that detects the onset of P-wave in an earthquake event. The parameters of the P-wave detector have been optimized for minimizing detection time and maximizing the accuracy of detection.Working of the sensor scheme has been verified with seven earthquakes data retrieved from IRIS. In all test cases, the scheme detected the onset of P-wave accurately. Also, it has been established that the P-wave onset detection time reduces linearly with the sampling rate. It has been verified with test data; the detection time for data sampled at 10Hz was around 2 seconds which reduced to 0.3 second for the data sampled at 100Hz.

Keywords: earthquake early warning system, EEWS, STA/LTA, polarization, wavelet, event detector, P-wave detector

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Authors: Deepshikha Shukla, C. H. Solanki, Mayank Desai

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In the last few years, it has been observed that earthquake is proving a threat to the scientist across the world. With a large number of earthquakes occurring in day to day life, the threat to life and property has increased manifolds which call for an urgent attention of all the researchers globally to carry out the research in the field of Earthquake Engineering. Any hazard related to the earthquake and seismicity is considered to be seismic hazards. The common forms of seismic hazards are Ground Shaking, Structure Damage, Structural Hazards, Liquefaction, Landslides, Tsunami to name a few. Among all the natural hazards, the most devastating and damaging is the earthquake as all other hazards are triggered only after the occurrence of an earthquake. In order to quantify and estimate the seismicity and seismic hazards, many methods and approaches have been proposed in the past few years. Such approaches are Mathematical, Conventional and Computational. Convex Set Theory, Empirical Green’s Function are some of the Mathematical Approaches whereas the Deterministic and Probabilistic Approaches are the Conventional Approach for the estimation of the seismic Hazards. Ground response and Ground Shaking of a particular area or region plays an important role in the damage caused due to the earthquake. In this paper, seismic study using Deterministic Approach and 1 D Ground Response Analysis has been carried out for Madhya Pradesh Tourism Office in Indore Region in Madhya Pradesh in Central India. Indore lies in the seismic zone III (IS: 1893, 2002) in the Seismic Zoning map of India. There are various faults and lineament in this area and Narmada Some Fault and Gavilgadh fault are the active sources of earthquake in the study area. Deepsoil v6.1.7 has been used to perform the 1 D Linear Ground Response Analysis for the study area. The Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) of the city ranges from 0.1g to 0.56g.

Keywords: seismicity, seismic hazards, deterministic, probabilistic methods, ground response analysis

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Authors: Maria Angela Bedini, Fabio Bronzini

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The Italian experiences, positive and negative, of the post-earthquake are conditioned by long times and structural bureaucratic constraints, also motivated by the attempt to contain mafia infiltration and corruption. The transition from the operational phase of the emergency to the planning phase of the reconstruction project is thus hampered by a series of inefficiencies and delays, incompatible with the need for rapid recovery of the territories in crisis. In fact, intervening in areas affected by seismic events means at the same time associating the reconstruction plan with an urban and territorial rehabilitation project based on strategies and tools in which prevention and safety play a leading role in the regeneration of territories in crisis and the return of the population. On the contrary, the earthquakes that took place in Italy have instead further deprived the territories affected of the minimum requirements for habitability, in terms of accessibility and services, accentuating the depopulation process, already underway before the earthquake. The objective of this work is to address with implementing and programmatic tools the procedures and strategies to be put in place, today and in the future, in Italy and abroad, to face the challenge of the reconstruction of activities, sociality, services, risk mitigation: a protocol of operational intentions and firm points, open to a continuous updating and implementation. The methodology followed is that of the comparison in a synthetic form between the different Italian experiences of the post-earthquake, based on facts and not on intentions, to highlight elements of excellence or, on the contrary, damage. The main results obtained can be summarized in technical comparison cards on good and bad practices. With this comparison, we intend to make a concrete contribution to the reconstruction process, certainly not only related to the reconstruction of buildings but privileging the primary social and economic needs. In this context, the recent instrument applied in Italy of the strategic urban and territorial SUM (Minimal Urban Structure) and the strategic monitoring process become dynamic tools for supporting reconstruction. The conclusions establish, by points, a protocol of interventions, the priorities for integrated socio-economic strategies, multisectoral and multicultural, and highlight the innovative aspects of 'inversion' of priorities in the reconstruction process, favoring the take-off of 'accelerator' interventions social and economic and a more updated system of coexistence with risks. In this perspective, reconstruction as a necessary response to the calamitous event can and must become a unique opportunity to raise the level of protection from risks and rehabilitation and development of the most fragile places in Italy and abroad.

Keywords: an operational protocol for reconstruction, operational priorities for coexistence with seismic risk, social and economic interventions accelerators of building reconstruction, the difficult post-earthquake reconstruction in Italy

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Authors: Debasis Sarkar

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Clean development mechanism (CDM) can act as an effective instrument for mitigating climate change. This mechanism can effectively reduce the emission of CO2 and other green house gases (GHG). Construction of a mega infrastructure project like underground corridor construction for metro rail operation involves in consumption of substantial quantity of concrete which consumes huge quantity of energy consuming materials like cement and steel. This paper is an attempt to develop an integrated clean development mechanism and risk management approach for sustainable development for an underground corridor metro rail project in India during its construction phase. It was observed that about 35% reduction in CO2 emission can be obtained by adding fly ash as a part replacement of cement. The reduced emission quantity of CO2 which is of the quantum of about 21,646.36 MT would result in cost savings of approximately INR 8.5 million (USD 1,29,878).But construction and operation of such infrastructure projects of the present era are subject to huge risks and uncertainties throughout all the phases of the project, thus reducing the probability of successful completion of the project within stipulated time and cost frame. Thus, an integrated approach of combining CDM with risk management would enable the metro rail authorities to develop a sustainable risk mitigation measure framework to ensure more cost and energy savings and lesser time and cost over-run.

Keywords: clean development mechanism (CDM), infrastructure transportation, project risk management, underground metro rail

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Authors: Ritsuko Kawasaki (Aiba), Takeshi Hiromatsu

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Management is required to understand all information security risks within an organization, and to make decisions on which information security risks should be treated in what level by allocating how much amount of cost. However, such decision-making is not usually easy, because various measures for risk treatment must be selected with the suitable application levels. In addition, some measures may have objectives conflicting with each other. It also makes the selection difficult. Moreover, risks generally have trends and it also should be considered in risk treatment. Therefore, this paper provides the extension of the model proposed in the previous study. The original model supports the selection of measures by applying a combination of weighted average method and goal programming method for multi-objective analysis to find an optimal solution. The extended model includes the notion of weights to the risks, and the larger weight means the priority of the risk.

Keywords: information security risk treatment, selection of risk measures, risk acceptance, multi-objective optimization

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Authors: Mati Ullah, Shams Ur Rahman

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The purpose of this research study is to investigate the effect of macroeconomic and bank-specific factors on credit risk in Islamic banking in Pakistan. The future of financial institutions largely depends on how well they manage risks. Credit risk is an important type of risk affecting the banking sector. The current study has taken quarterly data for the period of 6 years, from 1st July 2014 to 30 Jun 2020. The data set consisted of secondary data. Data was extracted from the websites of the State Bank and World Bank and from the financial statements of the concerned banks. In this study, the Ordinary least square model was used for the analysis of the data. The results supported the hypothesis that macroeconomic factors and bank-specific factors have a significant effect on credit risk. Macroeconomic variables, Inflation and exchange rates have positive significant effects on credit risk. However, gross domestic product has a negative significant relationship with credit risk. Moreover, the corporate rate has no significant relation with credit risk. Internal variables, size, management efficiency, net profit share income and capital adequacy have been proven to influence positively and significantly the credit risk. However, loan to deposit-has a negative insignificance relationship with credit risk. The contribution of this article is that similar conclusions have been made regarding the influence of banking factors on credit risk.

Keywords: credit risk, Islamic banks, macroeconomic variables, banks specific variable

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Authors: Eun-Chan Kim, Jeong-Hwan Oh, Seung-Guk Lee

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Billions of tones of ballast water including various aquatic organisms are being carried around the world by ships. When the ballast water is discharged into new environments, some aquatic organisms discharged with ballast water may become invasive and severely disrupt the native ecology. Thus, International Maritime Organization (IMO) adopted the Ballast Water Management Convention in 2004. Regulation A-4 of the convention states that a government in waters under their jurisdiction may grant exemptions to any requirements to ballast water management, but only when they are granted to a ship or ships on a voyage or voyages between specified ports or locations, or to a ship which operates exclusively between specified ports or locations. In order to grant exemptions, risk assessment should be conducted based on the guidelines for risk assessment developed by the IMO. For the risk assessment, it is essential to collect the relevant information and establish a database system. This paper studies the database system for ballast water risk assessment. This database consists of the shipping database, ballast water database, port environment database and species database. The shipping database has been established based on the data collected from the port management information system of Korea Government. For the ballast water database, ballast water discharge has only been estimated by the loading/unloading of the cargoes as the convention has not come into effect yet. The port environment database and species database are being established based on the reference documents, and existing and newly collected monitoring data. This database system has been approved to be a useful system, capable of appropriately analyzing the risk assessment in the all ports of Korea.

Keywords: ballast water, IMO, risk assessment, shipping, environment, species

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Authors: Fathul Mubin, Budi E. Nurcahya

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In 2006, a large earthquake ever occurred in the province of Yogyakarta, which caused considerable damage. This is the basis need to investigate the seismic vulnerability index in around of the earthquake zone. This research is called microzonation of earthquake hazard. This research has been conducted at the site and surrounding of Prambanan Temple, includes homes and civil buildings. The reason this research needs to be done because in the event of an earthquake in 2006, there was damage to the temples at Prambanan temple complex and its surroundings. In this research, data collection carried out for 60 minutes using three component seismograph measurements at 165 points with spacing of 1000 meters. The data recorded in time function were analyzed using the spectral ratio method, known as the Horizontal to Vertical Spectral Ratio (HVSR). Results from this analysis are dominant frequency (Fg) and maximum amplification factor (Ag) are used to obtain seismic vulnerability index. The results of research showed the dominant frequency range from 0.5 to 30 Hz and the amplification is in interval from 0.5 to 9. Interval value for seismic vulnerability index is 0.1 to 50. Based on distribution maps of seismic vulnerability index and impact of buildings damage seemed for suitability. For further research, it needs to survey to the east (klaten) and south (Bantul, DIY) to determine a full distribution maps of seismic vulnerability index.

Keywords: amplification factor, dominant frequency, microzonation analysis, seismic vulnerability index

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Authors: Alisha Khanal, Gokhan Saygili

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It is commonly observed that aftershocks follow the mainshock. Aftershocks continue over a period of time with a decreasing frequency and typically there is not sufficient time for repair and retrofit between a mainshock–aftershock sequence. Usually, aftershocks are smaller in magnitude; however, aftershock ground motion characteristics such as the intensity and duration can be greater than the mainshock due to the changes in the earthquake mechanism and location with respect to the site. The seismic performance of slopes is typically evaluated based on the sliding displacement predicted to occur along a critical sliding surface. Various empirical models are available that predict sliding displacement as a function of seismic loading parameters, ground motion parameters, and site parameters but these models do not include the aftershocks. The seismic risks associated with the post-mainshock slopes ('damaged slopes') subjected to aftershocks is significant. This paper extends the empirical sliding displacement models for flexible slopes subjected to earthquake mainshock-aftershock sequences (a multi hazard approach). A dataset was developed using 144 pairs of as-recorded mainshock-aftershock sequences using the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER) database. The results reveal that the combination of mainshock and aftershock increases the seismic demand on slopes relative to the mainshock alone; thus, seismic risks are underestimated if aftershocks are neglected.

Keywords: seismic slope stability, mainshock, aftershock, landslide, earthquake, flexible slopes

Procedia PDF Downloads 146