Search results for: Irene A. Monte

Authors: Raj Kumari Bahl, Sotirios Sabanis

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In this paper, we are concerned with the valuation of the first Catastrophic Mortality Bond that was launched in the market namely the Swiss Re Mortality Bond 2003. This bond encapsulates the behavior of a well-defined mortality index to generate payoffs for the bondholders. Pricing this bond is a challenging task. We adapt the payoff of the terminal principal of the bond in terms of the payoff of an Asian put option and present an approach to derive model-independent bounds exploiting comonotonic theory. We invoke Jensen’s inequality for the computation of lower bounds and employ Lagrange optimization technique to achieve the upper bound. The success of these bounds is based on the availability of compatible European mortality options in the market. We carry out Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the bond price and illustrate the strength of these bounds across a variety of models. The fact that our bounds are model-independent is a crucial breakthrough in the pricing of catastrophic mortality bonds.

Keywords: mortality bond, Swiss Re Bond, mortality index, comonotonicity

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Authors: Sadaf Nawaz, Adnan Ahmed Khan, Asad Mahmood, Chaudhary Farrukh Javed

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Classically, an energy detector is implemented in time domain (TD). However, frequency domain (FD) based energy detector has demonstrated an improved performance. This paper presents a comparison between the two approaches as to analyze their pros and cons. A detailed performance analysis of the classical TD energy-detector and the periodogram based detector is performed. Exact and approximate mathematical expressions for probability of false alarm (Pf) and probability of detection (Pd) are derived for both approaches. The derived expressions naturally lead to an analytical as well as intuitive reasoning for the improved performance of (Pf) and (Pd) in different scenarios. Our analysis suggests the dependence improvement on buffer sizes. Pf is improved in FD, whereas Pd is enhanced in TD based energy detectors. Finally, Monte Carlo simulations results demonstrate the analysis reached by the derived expressions.

Keywords: cognitive radio, energy detector, periodogram, spectrum sensing

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Authors: R. J. Chang

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A cyclostationary Gaussian linearization method is formulated for investigating the time average response of nonlinear system under sinusoidal signal and white noise excitation. The quantitative measure of cyclostationary mean, variance, spectrum of mean amplitude, and mean power spectral density of noise is analyzed. The qualitative response behavior of stochastic jump and bifurcation are investigated. The validity of the present approach in predicting the quantitative and qualitative statistical responses is supported by utilizing Monte Carlo simulations. The present analysis without imposing restrictive analytical conditions can be directly derived by solving non-linear algebraic equations. The analytical solution gives reliable quantitative and qualitative prediction of mean and noise response for the Duffing system subjected to both sinusoidal signal and white noise excitation.

Keywords: cyclostationary, duffing system, Gaussian linearization, sinusoidal, white noise

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Authors: Constance Chivengwa, Tinashe Mandimutsira, Jephris Gere, Charles Magogo, Irene Chikanza, Jerneja Vidmar, Walter Chingwaru

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The use of traditional methods in the management of diarrhoea has remained a common practice among the indigenous African tribes of Southern Africa. Despite the widespread use of traditional medicines in Zimbabwe, very little research validating the activities of phytomedicines against diarrhoea, as claimed by the Shona people of Zimbabwe, has been reported. This study sought to determine the efficacies of the plants that are frequently used to treat stomach complaints, namely Dicoma anomala, Cassia abbreviata, Lannea edulis and Peltophorum africanum against Escherichia coli (an indicator of faecal contamination of water, and whose strains such as EHEC (O157), ETEC and EPEC, are responsible for a number of outbreaks of diarrhoea) and Salmonella spp. Ethanol and aqueous extracts from these plants were obtained, evaporated, dried and stored. The dried extracts were reconstituted and diluted 10-fold in nutrient broth (from 100 to 0.1 microgram/mL) and tested for inhibition against the bacteria. L. edulis exhibited the best antimicrobial effect (minimum inhibition concentration = 10 microgram/mL for both extracts and microorganisms). Runners up to L. edulis were C. abbreviata (20 microgram/mL for both microorganisms) and P. africanum (20 and 30 microgram/mL respectively). Interestingly, D. anomala, which is widely considered panacea in African medicinal practices, showed low antimicrobial activity (60 and 100 microgram/mL respectively). The high antimicrobial activity of L. edulis can be explained by its content of flavonoids, tannins, alkylphenols (cardonol 7 and cardonol 13) and dihydroalkylhexenones. The antimicrobial activities of C. abbreviata can be linked to its content of anthraquinones and triterpenoids. P. africanum is known to contain benzenoids, flavanols, flavonols, terpenes, xanthone and coumarins. This study therefore demonstrated that, among the plants that are used against diarrhoea in African traditional medicine, L. edulis is a clear winner against E. coli and Salmonella spp. Activity guided extraction is encouraged to establish the complement of compounds that have antimicrobial activities.

Keywords: diarrhoea, Escherichia coli, Salmonella, phytomedicine, MIC, Zimbabwe

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Authors: Pablo Enrique Sartor Del Giudice

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Penalty shootouts often decide the outcome of important soccer matches. Although usually referred to as ”lotteries”, there is evidence that some national teams and clubs consistently perform better than others. The outcomes are therefore not explained just by mere luck, and therefore there are ways to improve the average performance of players, naturally at the expense of some sort of effort. In this article we study the payoff of player performance improvements in terms of the performance of the team as a whole. To do so we develop an analytical model with static individual performances, as well as Monte Carlo models that take into account the known influence of partial score and round number on individual performances. We find that within a range of usual values, the team performance improves above 70% faster than individual performances do. Using these models, we also estimate that the new ABBA penalty shootout ordering under test reduces almost all the known bias in favor of the first-shooting team under the current ABAB system.

Keywords: football, penalty shootouts, Montecarlo simulation, ABBA

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Authors: Panudet Saengseedam, Nanthachai Kantanantha

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This paper proposes a linear mixed model (LMM) with spatial effects to forecast rice and cassava yields in Thailand at the same time. A multivariate conditional autoregressive (MCAR) model is assumed to present the spatial effects. A Bayesian method is used for parameter estimation via Gibbs sampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The model is applied to the rice and cassava yields monthly data which have been extracted from the Office of Agricultural Economics, Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives of Thailand. The results show that the proposed model has better performance in most provinces in both fitting part and validation part compared to the simple exponential smoothing and conditional auto regressive models (CAR) from our previous study.

Keywords: Bayesian method, linear mixed model, multivariate conditional autoregressive model, spatial time series

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Authors: Josip Vasilj, Petar Sarajcev, Damir Jakus

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One of the major difficulties introduced with wind power penetration is the inherent uncertainty in production originating from uncertain wind conditions. This uncertainty impacts many different aspects of power system operation, especially the balancing power requirements. For this reason, in power system development planing, it is necessary to evaluate the potential uncertainty in future wind power generation. For this purpose, simulation models are required, reproducing the performance of wind power forecasts. This paper presents a wind power forecast error simulation models which are based on the stochastic process simulation. Proposed models capture the most important statistical parameters recognized in wind power forecast error time series. Furthermore, two distinct models are presented based on data availability. First model uses wind speed measurements on potential or existing wind power plant locations, while the seconds model uses statistical distribution of wind speeds.

Keywords: wind power, uncertainty, stochastic process, Monte Carlo simulation

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Authors: (Ted) Edward Holmberg, Mahdi Abdelguerfi, Elias Ioup

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This research details a coverage measure for evaluating the effectiveness of observer node placements in a spatial bipartite network. This coverage measure can be used to optimize the configuration of stationary or mobile spatially oriented observer nodes, or a hybrid of the two, over time in order to fully utilize their capabilities. To demonstrate the practical application of this approach, we construct a SpatioTemporal Bipartite Network (STBN) using real-time crime center (RTCC) camera nodes and NOPD calls for service (CFS) event nodes from New Orleans, La (NOLA). We use the coverage measure to identify optimal placements for moving mobile RTCC camera vans to improve coverage of vulnerable areas based on temporal patterns.

Keywords: coverage measure, mobile node dynamics, Monte Carlo simulation, observer nodes, observable nodes, spatiotemporal bipartite knowledge graph, temporal spatial analysis

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Authors: Saba Rahimi, Ozan Oktay, Javier Alvarez-Valle, Sujeeth Bharadwaj

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Successful application of deep learning in medical image analysis necessitates unprecedented amounts of labeled training data. Unlike conventional 2D applications, radiological images can be three-dimensional (e.g., CT, MRI), consisting of many instances within each image. The problem is exacerbated when expert annotations are required for effective pixel-wise labeling, which incurs exorbitant labeling effort and cost. Active learning is an established research domain that aims to reduce labeling workload by prioritizing a subset of informative unlabeled examples to annotate. Our contribution is a cost-effective approach for U-Net 3D models that uses Monte Carlo sampling to analyze pixel-wise uncertainty. Experiments on the AAPM 2017 lung CT segmentation challenge dataset show that our proposed framework can achieve promising segmentation results by using only 42% of the training data.

Keywords: image segmentation, active learning, convolutional neural network, 3D U-Net

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Authors: A. Boursali, A. Guen-Bouazza

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We present a simulation of a HEMT (high electron mobility transistor) structure with and without a field plate. We extract the device characteristics through the analysis of DC, AC and high frequency regimes, as shown in this paper. This work demonstrates the optimal device with a gate length of 15 nm, InAlN/GaN heterostructure and field plate structure, making it superior to modern HEMTs when compared with otherwise equivalent devices. This improves the ability to bear the burden of the current density passes in the channel. We have demonstrated an excellent current density, as high as 2.05 A/m, a peak extrinsic transconductance of 0.59S/m at VDS=2 V, and cutting frequency cutoffs of 638 GHz in the first HEMT and 463 GHz for Field plate HEMT., maximum frequency of 1.7 THz, maximum efficiency of 73%, maximum breakdown voltage of 400 V, leakage current density IFuite=1 x 10-26 A, DIBL=33.52 mV/V and an ON/OFF current density ratio higher than 1 x 1010. These values were determined through the simulation by deriving genetic and Monte Carlo algorithms that optimize the design and the future of this technology.

Keywords: HEMT, silvaco, field plate, genetic algorithm, quantum

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Authors: Irene Yi

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Machine learning, natural language processing, and neural network models of language are becoming more and more prevalent in the fields of technology and linguistics today. Training data for machines are at best, large corpora of human literature and at worst, a reflection of the ugliness in society. Computational linguistics is a growing field dealing with such issues of data collection for technological development. Machines have been trained on millions of human books, only to find that in the course of human history, derogatory and sexist adjectives are used significantly more frequently when describing females in history and literature than when describing males. This is extremely problematic, both as training data, and as the outcome of natural language processing. As machines start to handle more responsibilities, it is crucial to ensure that they do not take with them historical sexist and misogynistic notions. This paper gathers data and algorithms from neural network models of language having to deal with syntax, semantics, sociolinguistics, and text classification. Computational analysis on such linguistic data is used to find patterns of misogyny. Results are significant in showing the existing intentional and unintentional misogynistic notions used to train machines, as well as in developing better technologies that take into account the semantics and syntax of text to be more mindful and reflect gender equality. Further, this paper deals with the idea of non-binary gender pronouns and how machines can process these pronouns correctly, given its semantic and syntactic context. This paper also delves into the implications of gendered grammar and its effect, cross-linguistically, on natural language processing. Languages such as French or Spanish not only have rigid gendered grammar rules, but also historically patriarchal societies. The progression of society comes hand in hand with not only its language, but how machines process those natural languages. These ideas are all extremely vital to the development of natural language models in technology, and they must be taken into account immediately.

Keywords: computational analysis, gendered grammar, misogynistic language, neural networks

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Authors: Z. Kourdi, B. Bouazza, M. Khaouani, A. Guen-Bouazza, Z. Djennati, A. Boursali

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We present a simulation of a HEMT (high electron mobility transistor) structure with and without a field plate. We extract the device characteristics through the analysis of DC, AC and high frequency regimes, as shown in this paper. This work demonstrates the optimal device with a gate length of 15 nm, InAlN/GaN heterostructure and field plate structure, making it superior to modern HEMTs when compared with otherwise equivalent devices. This improves the ability to bear the burden of the current density passes in the channel. We have demonstrated an excellent current density, as high as 2.05 A/mm, a peak extrinsic transconductance of 590 mS/mm at VDS=2 V, and cutting frequency cutoffs of 638 GHz in the first HEMT and 463 GHz for Field plate HEMT., maximum frequency of 1.7 THz, maximum efficiency of 73%, maximum breakdown voltage of 400 V, DIBL=33.52 mV/V and an ON/OFF current density ratio higher than 1 x 1010. These values were determined through the simulation by deriving genetic and Monte Carlo algorithms that optimize the design and the future of this technology.

Keywords: HEMT, Silvaco, field plate, genetic algorithm, quantum

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Authors: Héctor González Espinosa, Ricardo Ivan Cordova Chávez, Alejandra Contreras Ramos, Itzia Irene Padilla Martínez, José Guadalupe Trujillo Ferrara, Marvin Antonio Soriano Ursúa

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Boronic acids are able to create diester bonds with carbohydrates because of their hydroxyl groups; in nature, there are some organoborates with these characteristics, such as the calcium fructoborate, formed by the union of two fructose molecules and a boron atom, synthesized by plants. In addition, it has been observed that, in animal cells only the compounds with cis-diol functional groups are capable of linking to boric or boronic acids. The formation of these organoboron compounds could impair the physical and chemical properties of the precursors, even their acute toxicity. In this project, two carbohydrate-derived boron-containing compounds from D-fructose and D-arabinose and phenylboronic acid are analyzed by different spectroscopy techniques such as Raman, Infrared with Fourier Transform Infrared (FT-IR), Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) and X-ray diffraction crystallography to describe their chemical characteristics. Also, an acute toxicity test was performed to determine their LD50 using the Lorke’s method. It was confirmed by multiple spectra the formation of the adducts by the generation of the diester bonds with a β-D-pyranose of fructose and arabinose. The most prominent findings were the presence of signals corresponding to the formation of new bonds, like the stretching of B-O bonds, or the absence of signals of functional groups like the hydroxyls presented in the reagents used for the synthesis of the adducts. The NMR spectra yielded information about the stereoselectivity in the synthesis reaction, observed by the interaction of the protons and their vicinal atoms in the anomeric and second position carbons; but also, the absence of a racemic mix by the finding of just one signal in the range for the anomeric carbon in the 13C NMR spectra of both adducts. The acute toxicity tests by the Lorke’s method showed that the LD50 value for both compounds is 1265 mg/kg. Those results let us to propose these adducts as highly safe agents for further biological evaluation with medical purposes.

Keywords: acute toxicity, adduct, boron, carbohydrate, diester bond

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Authors: Ghobad Gorji, Hasan Golabi

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The goal of this paper is to describe the design of an ultra-wideband (UWB) system that is optimized for the low-rate wireless personal area network application. To this aim, we propose a system based on direct chaotic communication (DCC) technology. Based on this system, a 2-GHz wide chaotic signal is directly generated into the lower band of the UWB spectrum, i.e., 3.1–5.1 GHz. For this system, two simple modulation schemes, namely chaotic on-off keying (COOK) and differential chaos shift keying (DCSK), were studied before, and their performance was evaluated. We propose a modulation scheme, namely Double DCSK, to improve the performance of UWB DCC. Different characteristics of these systems, with Monte Carlo simulations based on the Additive White Gaussian Noise (AWGN) and the IEEE 802.15.4a standard channel models, are compared.

Keywords: UWB, DCC, IEEE 802.15.4a, COOK, DCSK

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Authors: Yufei Peng, Zhen Qin, Jianbe Li, Jidong Long

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The thermal cathode is widely used in accelerators, FELs and kinds of vacuum electronics. However, emission nonuniformity exists due to surface profile, material distribution, temperature variation, crystal orientation, etc., which will cause intrinsic emittance growth, brightness decline, envelope size augment, device performance deterioration or even failure. To understand how emittance is manipulated by emission nonuniformity, an intrinsic emittance model consisting of contributions from macro and micro surface nonuniformity is developed analytically based on general thermal emission model at temperature limited regime according to a real 3mm cathode. The model shows relative emittance increased about 50% due to temperature variation, and less than 5% from several kinds of micro surface nonuniformity which is much smaller than other research. Otherwise, we also calculated emittance growth combining with Monte Carlo method and PIC simulation, experiments of emission uniformity and emittance measurement are going to be carried out separately.

Keywords: thermal cathode, electron emission fluctuation, intrinsic emittance, surface nonuniformity, cathode lifetime

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Authors: Otman Jai, Otman Elhajjaji, Jaouad Tajmouati

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Several neutronic calculation codes must be used to solve the equation for different levels of discretization which all necessitate a specific modelisation. This chain of such models, known as a calculation scheme, leads to the knowledge of the neutron flux in a reactor from its own geometry, its isotopic compositions and a cross-section library. Being small in size, the 'Slowpoke-2' reactor is difficult to model due to the importance of the leaking neutrons. In the paper, the simulation model is presented (geometry, cross section library, assumption, etc.), and the results obtained by DRAGON4/DONJON4 codes were compared to the calculations performed with Monte Carlo code MCNP using detailed geometrical model of the reactor and the experimental data. Criticality calculations have been performed to verify and validate the model. Since created model properly describes the reactor core, it can be used for calculations of reactor core parameters and for optimization of research reactor application.

Keywords: transport equation, Dragon4, Donjon4, neutron flux, effective multiplication factor

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Authors: Naime Boudemagh, Zoheir Hammoudi

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The parameters estimation of the K-distribution is an essential part in radar detection. In fact, presence of interfering targets in reference cells causes a decrease in detection performances. In such situation, the estimate of the shape and the scale parameters are far from the actual values. In the order to avoid interfering targets, we propose an Automatic Censoring (AC) algorithm of radar interfering targets in K-distribution. The censoring technique used in this work offers a good discrimination between homogeneous and non-homogeneous environments. The homogeneous population is then used to estimate the unknown parameters by the classical Method of Moment (MOM). The AC algorithm does not need any prior information about the clutter parameters nor does it require both the number and the position of interfering targets. The accuracy of the estimation parameters obtained by this algorithm are validated and compared to various actual values of the shape parameter, using Monte Carlo simulations, this latter show that the probability of censing in multiple target situations are in good agreement.

Keywords: parameters estimation, method of moments, automatic censoring, K distribution

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Authors: Mahmoud M. Othman, Almoataz Y. Abdelaziz, Yasser G. Hegazy

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This paper presents a load control strategy based on modification of the Big Bang Big Crunch optimization method. The proposed strategy aims to determine the optimal load to be controlled and the corresponding time of control in order to minimize the energy purchased from substation. The presented strategy helps the distribution network operator to rely on the renewable energy sources in supplying the system demand. The renewable energy sources used in the presented study are modeled using the diagonal band Copula method and sequential Monte Carlo method in order to accurately consider the multivariate stochastic dependence between wind power, photovoltaic power and the system demand. The proposed algorithms are implemented in MATLAB environment and tested on the IEEE 37-node feeder. Several case studies are done and the subsequent discussions show the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

Keywords: big bang big crunch, distributed generation, load control, optimization, planning

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Authors: Gubhinder Kundhi, Paul Rilstone

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Refined procedures for higher-order asymptotic theory for non-linear models are developed. These include a new method for deriving stochastic expansions of arbitrary order, new methods for evaluating the moments of polynomials of sample averages, a new method for deriving the approximate moments of the stochastic expansions; an application of these techniques to gather improved inferences with the weak instruments problem is considered. It is well established that Instrumental Variable (IV) estimators in the presence of weak instruments can be poorly behaved, in particular, be quite biased in finite samples. In our application, finite sample approximations to the distributions of these estimators are obtained using Edgeworth and Saddlepoint expansions. Departures from normality of the distributions of these estimators are analyzed using higher order analytical corrections in these expansions. In a Monte-Carlo experiment, the performance of these expansions is compared to the first order approximation and other methods commonly used in finite samples such as the bootstrap.

Keywords: edgeworth expansions, higher order asymptotics, saddlepoint expansions, weak instruments

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Authors: Ahmadur Rahman, Showkat Ahmad Lone, Ariful Islam

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In this article, we have estimated the parameters for the failure times of units based on the sampling technique adaptive type-I progressive hybrid censoring under the step-stress partially accelerated life tests for competing risk. The failure times of the units are assumed to follow an exponential distribution. Maximum likelihood estimation technique is used to estimate the unknown parameters of the distribution and tampered coefficient. Confidence interval also obtained for the parameters. A simulation study is performed by using Monte Carlo Simulation method to check the authenticity of the model and its assumptions.

Keywords: adaptive type-I hybrid progressive censoring, competing risks, exponential distribution, simulation, step-stress partially accelerated life tests

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Authors: Petar Sarajcev, Josip Vasilj, Damir Jakus

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This paper presents a novel statistical description of the counterpoise effective length due to lightning surges, where the (impulse) effective length had been obtained by means of regressive formulas applied to the transient simulation results. The effective length is described in terms of a statistical distribution function, from which median, mean, variance, and other parameters of interest could be readily obtained. The influence of lightning current amplitude, lightning front duration, and soil resistivity on the effective length has been accounted for, assuming statistical nature of these parameters. A method for determining the optimal counterpoise length, in terms of the statistical impulse effective length, is also presented. It is based on estimating the number of dangerous events associated with lightning strikes. Proposed statistical description and the associated method provide valuable information which could aid the design engineer in optimising physical lengths of counterpoises in different grounding arrangements and soil resistivity situations.

Keywords: counterpoise, grounding conductor, effective length, lightning, Monte Carlo method, statistical distribution

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Authors: A. E. Dumitriu

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The LHCb experiment is situated at one of the four points around CERN’s Large Hadron Collider, being a single-arm forward spectrometer covering 10 mrad to 300 (250) mrad in the bending (non-bending) plane, designed primarily to study particles containing b and c quarks. Each one of LHCb’s sub-detectors specializes in measuring a different characteristic of the particles produced by colliding protons, its significant detection characteristics including a high precision tracking system and 2 ring-imaging Cherenkov detectors for particle identification. The major two topics that I am currently concerned in are: the RIVET project (Robust Independent Validation of Experiment and Theory) which is an efficient and portable tool kit of C++ class library useful for validation and tuning of Monte Carlo (MC) event generator models by providing a large collection of standard experimental analyses useful for High Energy Physics MC generator development, validation, tuning and regression testing and V0 analysis for 2013 LHCb NoBias type data (trigger on bunch + bunch crossing) at √s=2.76 TeV.

Keywords: LHCb physics, RIVET plug-in, RIVET, CERN

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Authors: Jesryl B. Paulite, Irene Alcantara-Papa, Teofila O. Zulaybar, Jocelyn T. Zarate, Virgie Ugay

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Banana is one of the major fruits in the Philippines in terms of volume of production and export earnings. The Philippines export of fresh Cavendish banana ranked No.1 with 22% share. One major threat to the industry is Fusarium wilt caused by Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. cubense. It tops as a major concern today affecting the Philippine banana industry since 2002 up to the present in Mindanao. Because of environmental and health issues concerning the use of chemical pesticides in the control of diseases, utilization of microorganisms has been significant in recent years as a promising alternative. This study aims to evaluate the potential of actinomycetes to control Fusarium wilt in Cavendish banana. The in-vitro experiments was carried out in Complete Randomized Design (CRD) while field experiment was laid out in a Randomized Complete Block Design (RCBD) with three treatments and three replications. Actinomycetes were isolated from mangrove soils in areas in Quezon and Bataan, Philippines. A total of 199 actinomycetes were isolated and 82 actinomycetes showed activity against the local Fusarium oxysporum (Foc) by agar plug assay. The test for antagonisms (AQ6, AQ30, and AQ121) of three best isolates Foc to were selected inhibiting Foc by 21.0mm, 22.0mm and 20.5mm, respectively. The same actinomycetes inhibited well Foc Tropical Race 4 showing 24.6 mm, 20.2mm and 19.0 mm zones of inhibition by agar plug assay, respectively. Combinations of the three isolates yielded an inhibition of 13.5 mm by cup cylinder assay. These findings led to the formulation of the mixed actinomycetes as biocontrol agents against Foc. A field experiment to evaluate the formulated mixed actinomycetes against Foc in a Foc infested field in Kinamayan, Sto Tomas, Davao Del Norte, Philippines. was conducted. Results showed that preventive method of application of the mixed actinomycetes against Foc showed promising results. A 56.66% mortality was observed in control set-up (no biocontrol agent added) compared to 33.33% mortality in preventive method. Further validation of the effectiveness of the mixed actinomycetes as biocontrol agent is presently being conducted in Asuncion, Davao Del Norte, Philippines.

Keywords: actinomycetes, biocontrol agents, cavendish banana, Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. cubense

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Authors: Patarawan Sangnawakij, Sa-Aat Niwitpong

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In this paper, we proposed two new confidence intervals for the difference of coefficients of variation, CIw and CIs, in two independent gamma distributions. These proposed confidence intervals using the close form method of variance estimation which was presented by Donner and Zou (2010) based on concept of Wald and Score confidence interval, respectively. Monte Carlo simulation study is used to evaluate the performance, coverage probability and expected length, of these confidence intervals. The results indicate that values of coverage probabilities of the new confidence interval based on Wald and Score are satisfied the nominal coverage and close to nominal level 0.95 in various situations, particularly, the former proposed confidence interval is better when sample sizes are small. Moreover, the expected lengths of the proposed confidence intervals are nearly difference when sample sizes are moderate to large. Therefore, in this study, the confidence interval for the difference of coefficients of variation which based on Wald is preferable than the other one confidence interval.

Keywords: confidence interval, score’s interval, wald’s interval, coefficient of variation, gamma distribution, simulation study

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Authors: Mimoza Canga, Irene Malagnino, Gresa Baboci, Edit Xhajanka, Vito Antonio Malagnino

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Background: Diabetes mellitus is regarded as a very problematic chronic disease that has an effect on a considerable number of people around the world and it is straightforwardly associated with the oral health condition of the patients. Objective: The objective of this study is to analyze and evaluate the impact of diabetes mellitus on oral health. Materials and methods: In the present research were taken into consideration 300 patients with an age range of 11 to 80 years old. The study sample was composed of 191 males, respectively 63.7% of them and 109 females 36.3% of the participants. We divided them into seven age groups: 11-20, 21-30, 31-40, 41-50, 51-60, 61-70, and 71-80 years.This descriptive and analytical research was designed as a longitudinal study. Statistical analysis was performed using IBM SPSS 23.0 statistics. Results: The majority of patients participating in the study belonged to the age range from 41 to 50 years old, precisely 20.7% of them, while 27% of the patients were from 51 to 60 years old. Based on the present research, it resulted that 24.4% of the participant had high blood sugar values 250-300 mg/dl, whereas 19 % of the patients had very high blood sugar values 300-350 mg/dl. Based on the results of the current study, it was observed that 83.7% of patients were affected by gingivitis. In the current study, the significant finding is that 22% of patients had more than 7 teeth with dental caries and 21% of them had 5-7 teeth with dental caries, whereas 29% of the patients had 4-5 dental caries and the remaining 28% of them had 1-3 dental caries. The present study showed that most of the patients, 27% of them had lost more than 7 teeth and 22% of the participants had lost 5-7 teeth, whereas 31% of the patients had lost 4-5 teeth and only 20 % of them had lost 1-3 teeth. This study proved that high blood sugar values had a direct impact on the manifestation of gingivitis and there it was a strong correlation between them with P-value = .001. A strong correlation was found out between dental caries and high blood sugar values with P-value ˂.001. Males with diabetes mellitus were more affected by dental caries and this was proved by the P-value= .02, in comparison to females P-value=.03. The impact of high blood sugar values affects missing teeth and the correlation between them was statistically significant with P-value ˂ .001. Conclusion: The results of this study suggest that diabetes mellitus is a possible risk factor in oral health for the reason that Albanian patients over 51 years old, respectively 43% of them have over 5 teeth with dental caries as compared with 49% of the patients who had over 5 missing teeth, whereas the majority 83.7% of them suffered from gingivitis. This study asserts that patients who do not have periodical check-ups of diabetes mellitus are at significant risk of oral diseases.

Keywords: dental caries, diabetes mellitus, gingivitis, missing teeth

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Authors: Maria Tagarelli De Monte

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Since its formal recognition in 2021, Italian Sign Language (LIS) and interpreters’ education has become a topic for higher education in Italian universities. In April 2022, Italian universities have been invited to present their proposals to create sign language courses for interpreters’ training for both LIS and tactile LIS. As a result, a few universities have presented a three-year course leading candidate students from the introductory level to interpreters. In such a context, there is an open debate not only on the fact that three years may not be enough to prepare skillful interpreters but also on the need to refer to international standards in the definition of the training path to follow. Among these, are the Common European Framework of Reference (CEFR) for languages and Dublin’s descriptors. This contribution will discuss the potentials and the challenges given by LIS training in academic settings, by comparing traditional studies to the requests coming from universities. Particular attention will be given to the use of CEFR as a reference document for the Italian Sign Language Curriculum. Its use has given me the chance to reflect on how LIS can be taught in higher education, and the adaptations that need to be addressed to respect the visual-gestural nature of sign language and the formal requirements of academic settings.

Keywords: Italian sign language, higher education, sign language curriculum, interpreters education, CEFR

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Authors: Irene H. Maralit

Abstract:

Warning labels have been found to inform smokers about the health hazards of smoking, encourage smokers to quit, and prevent nonsmokers from starting to smoke. Warning labels on tobacco products are an ideal way of communicating with smokers. Since the intervention is delivered at the time of smoking, nearly all smokers are exposed to warning labels and pack-a-day smokers could be exposed to the warnings more than 7,000 times per year. Given the reach and frequency of exposure, the proponents want to know the effect of warning labels on smoking behavior. Its aims to identify the profile of the smokers associated with its behavioral variables that best describe the users’ perception. The behavioral variables are AVOID, THINK RISK and FORGO. This research study aims to determine if there is significant relationship between the effect of warning labels on cigarette package on Consumer behavior when grouped according to profile variable. The researcher used quota sampling to gather representative data through purposive means to determine the accurate representation of data needed in the study. Furthermore, the data was gathered through the use of a self-constructed questionnaire. The statistical method used were Frequency count, Chi square, multi regression, weighted mean and ANOVA to determine the scale and percentage of the three variables. After the analysis of data, results shows that most of the respondents belongs to age range 22–28 years old with percentage of 25.3%, majority are male with a total number of 134 with percentage of 89.3% and single with total number of 79 and percentage of 52.7%, mostly are high school graduates with total number of 59 and percentage of 39.3, with regards to occupation, skilled workers have the highest frequency of 37 with 24.7%, Majority of the income of the respondents falls under the range of Php 5,001-Php10,000 with 50.7%. And also with regards to the number of sticks consumed per day falls under 6–10 got the highest frequency with 33.3%. The respondents THINK RISK factor got the highest composite mean which is 2.79 with verbal interpretation of agree. It is followed by FORGO with 2.78 composite mean and a verbal interpretation of agree and AVOID variable with composite mean of 2.77 with agree as its verbal interpretation. In terms of significant relationship on the effects of cigarette label to consumer behavior when grouped according to profile variable, sex and occupation found to be significant.

Keywords: consumer behavior, smokers, warning labels, think risk avoid forgo

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Authors: Z. Sakka, I. Assakkaf, T. Al-Yaqoub, J. Parol

Abstract:

A reliability-based methodology for the analysis assessment and evaluation of reinforced concrete structural elements of concrete structures is presented herein. The results of the reliability analysis and assessment for structural elements are verified by the results obtained from the deterministic methods. The analysis outcomes of reliability-based analysis are compared against the safety limits of the required reliability index β according to international standards and codes. The methodology is based on probabilistic analysis using reliability concepts and statistics of the main random variables that are relevant to the subject matter, and for which they are to be used in the performance-function equation(s) related to the structural elements under study. These methodology techniques can result in reliability index β, which is commonly known as the reliability index or reliability measure value that can be utilized to assess and evaluate the safety, human risk, and functionality of the structural component. Also, these methods can result in revised partial safety factor values for certain target reliability indices that can be used for the purpose of redesigning the reinforced concrete elements of the building and in which they could assist in considering some other remedial actions to improve the safety and functionality of the member.

Keywords: structural reliability, concrete structures, FORM, Monte Carlo simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 495

Authors: Canga Mimoza, Irene Malagnino, Giulia Malagnino, Vito Malagnino

Abstract:

Aim: This study aims at evaluating the impact of total dust (LGS) and mineral dust (PM10), in the cardio vascular and respiratory systems. Also proving that these air polluters are the cause of several diseases, such as bronchopneumonia, pneumonia, bronchitis, angina pectoris and cardiac insufficiency. Material and Method: The study is concentrated in the cities of Fier and Vlora. This is a clinic-epidemiological study conducted during the time period 2014-2019. Some of the data of LGS and PM10 were obtained from the database of the Institute of Public Health. The formula to measure the mean value of LGS and PM10 is ∆X=X (mean)-Xᵢ. Results: Based on the calculations made, we noticed that: The mean value of LGS in the city of Fieri was 227,33, while the mean value of LGS in the city of Vlora was 177,4. Whereas, the mean value of PM10 in the city of Fieri was 105.5 and the mean value of PM10 in the city of Vlore was 77.5. According to, our statistics the values of LGS were 1.2 times higher in Fier than in Vlora and the PM10 values were 1.36 times higher in Fier than in Vlora. Based on the data, in the city of Fier, the incidence of the bronchopneumonia was 56.53 sick patients/1000 inhabitants, but in Vlora, it was 22 sick patients/1000 inhabitants, so the number of the sick patients was 2.5 times higher in the city of Fieri compared with Vlora city, (P=0.001). The number of the patients with bronchitis, in the city of Fier, was 18 patients/1000 inhabitants, whereas, in Vlora, it was 9 patients/1000 inhabitants, (P=0.005). Based on the data, 8 patients/1000 inhabitants in the city of Fier, suffered from the pneumonia disease, while in Vlora city, were 4 patients/1000 inhabitants, (P=0.005). Another disease taken in consideration was angina pectoris. This study can claim that in the city of Fier, 9.5 patients/1000 inhabitants suffered from this disease, while in Vlora city, were only 4 patients /1000 inhabitants, (P=0.001). Findings of the present study proved that 3.7 patients/1000 inhabitants in the city of Fieri, had cardiac insufficiency, whereas in the city of Vlora, were 1.8 patients/1000 inhabitants, (P=0.05). Conclusions: LGS and PM10 have an influential impact on the cardio vascular and respiratory system; that’s why their levels should be kept under control. The pollution levels are 1.2 and 1.4 times higher in Fier than in Vlora; also the incidences of the diseases are 2 times higher in Fier than in Vlora. Recommendations: In order to prevent the cardio vascular and respiratory diseases, we should avoid places where pollution is higher than the norm. This can be achieved by frequenting places where the air pollution is lower, such as parks, gardens, top floors, etc.

Keywords: impact of total dust, LGS, mineral dust, PM 10, cardio vascular pathologies, respiratory disease

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Authors: Emilia Olivos, R. Arroyave, A. Vargas-Calderon, J. E. Dominguez-Herrera

Abstract:

More efficient cooling systems are needed to reduce building energy consumption and environmental impact. At present researchers focus mainly on environmentally-friendly magnetic materials and the potential application in cooling devices. The magnetic materials presented in this project belong to a group known as Heusler alloys. These compounds are characterized by a strong coupling between their structure and magnetic properties. Usually, a change in one of them can alter the other, which implies changes in other electronic or structural properties, such as, shape magnetic memory response or the magnetocaloric effect. Those properties and its dependence with external fields make these materials interesting, both from a fundamental point of view, as well as on their different possible applications. In this work, first principles and Monte Carlo simulations have been used to calculate exchange couplings and magnetic properties as a function of an applied magnetic field on Heusler alloys. As a result, we found a large dependence of the magnetic susceptibility, entropy and heat capacity, indicating that the magnetic field can be used in experiments to trigger particular magnetic properties in materials, which are necessary to develop solid-state refrigeration devices.

Keywords: ferromagnetic materials, magnetocaloric effect, materials design, solid state refrigeration

Procedia PDF Downloads 185