Search results for: Hospital information system

Authors: Rakelane A. Mendes, Sandro T. M. Goncalves, Raphaella L. R. Silva

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The concepts of energy harvesting and wireless energy transfer have been widely discussed in recent times. There are some ways to create autonomous systems for collecting ambient energy, such as solar, vibratory, thermal, electromagnetic, radiofrequency (RF), among others. In the case of the RF it is possible to collect up to 100 μW / cm². To collect and/or transfer energy in RF systems, a device called rectenna is used, which is defined by the junction of an antenna and a rectifier circuit. The rectenna presented in this work is resonant at the frequencies of 1.8 GHz and 2.45 GHz. Frequencies at 1.8 GHz band are e part of the GSM / LTE band. The GSM (Global System for Mobile Communication) is a frequency band of mobile telephony, it is also called second generation mobile networks (2G), it came to standardize mobile telephony in the world and was originally developed for voice traffic. LTE (Long Term Evolution) or fourth generation (4G) has emerged to meet the demand for wireless access to services such as Internet access, online games, VoIP and video conferencing. The 2.45 GHz frequency is part of the ISM (Instrumentation, Scientific and Medical) frequency band, this band is internationally reserved for industrial, scientific and medical development with no need for licensing, and its only restrictions are related to maximum power transfer and bandwidth, which must be kept within certain limits (in Brazil the bandwidth is 2.4 - 2.4835 GHz). The rectenna presented in this work was designed to present efficiency above 50% for an input power of -15 dBm. It is known that for wireless energy capture systems the signal power is very low and varies greatly, for this reason this ultra-low input power was chosen. The Rectenna was built using the low cost FR4 (Flame Resistant) substrate, the antenna selected is a microfita antenna, consisting of a Meandered dipole, and this one was optimized using the software CST Studio. This antenna has high efficiency, high gain and high directivity. Gain is the quality of an antenna in capturing more or less efficiently the signals transmitted by another antenna and/or station. Directivity is the quality that an antenna has to better capture energy in a certain direction. The rectifier circuit used has series topology and was optimized using Keysight's ADS software. The rectifier circuit is the most complex part of the rectenna, since it includes the diode, which is a non-linear component. The chosen diode is the Schottky diode SMS 7630, this presents low barrier voltage (between 135-240 mV) and a wider band compared to other types of diodes, and these attributes make it perfect for this type of application. In the rectifier circuit are also used inductor and capacitor, these are part of the input and output filters of the rectifier circuit. The inductor has the function of decreasing the dispersion effect on the efficiency of the rectifier circuit. The capacitor has the function of eliminating the AC component of the rectifier circuit and making the signal undulating.

Keywords: dipole antenna, double-band, high efficiency, rectenna

Procedia PDF Downloads 105

Authors: Andrew White, Abigail Lowe, Kory Watkins, Hamed Akhlaghi, Nicole Winter

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The timing and appropriateness of diagnostic imaging are critical to the evaluation and management of traumatic injuries. Within the subclass of trauma patients, the prevalence of c-spine injury is less than 4%. However, the incidence of delayed diagnosis within this cohort has been documented as up to 20%, with inadequate radiological examination most cited issue. In order to assess those in which c-spine injury cannot be fully excluded based on clinical examination alone and, therefore, should undergo diagnostic imaging, a set of criteria is used to provide clinical guidance. The NEXUS (National Emergency X-Radiography Utilisation Study) criteria is a validated clinical decision-making tool used to facilitate selective c-spine radiography. The criteria allow clinicians to determine whether cervical spine imaging can be safely avoided in appropriate patients. The NEXUS criteria are widely used within the Emergency Department setting given their ease of use and relatively straightforward application and are used in the Victorian State Trauma System’s guidelines. This audit utilized retrospective data collection to examine the concordance of c-spine imaging in trauma patients to that of the NEXUS criteria and assess compliance with state guidance on diagnostic imaging in trauma. Of the 183 patients that presented with trauma to the head, neck, or face (244 excluded due to incorrect triage), 98 did not undergo imaging of the c-spine. Out of those 98, 44% fulfilled at least one of the NEXUS criteria, meaning the c-spine could not be clinically cleared as per the current guidelines. The criterion most met was intoxication, comprising 42% (18 of 43), with midline spinal tenderness (or absence of documentation of this) the second most common with 23% (10 of 43). Intoxication being the most met criteria is significant but not unexpected given the cohort of patients seen at St Vincent’s and within many emergency departments in general. Given these patients will always meet NEXUS criteria, an element of clinical judgment is likely needed, or concurrent use of the Canadian C-Spine Rules to exclude the need for imaging. Midline tenderness as a met criterion was often in the context of poor or absent documentation relating to this, emphasizing the importance of clear and accurate assessments. The distracting injury was identified in 7 out of the 43 patients; however, only one of these patients exhibited a thoracic injury (T11 compression fracture), with the remainder comprising injuries to the extremities – some studies suggest that C-spine imaging may not be required in the evaluable blunt trauma patient despite distracting injuries in any body regions that do not involve the upper chest. This emphasises the need for standardised definitions for distracting injury, at least at a departmental/regional level. The data highlights the currently poor application of the NEXUS guidelines, with likely common themes throughout emergency departments, highlighting the need for further education regarding implementation and potential refinement/clarification of criteria. Of note, there appeared to be no significant differences between levels of experience with respect to inappropriately clearing the c-spine clinically with respect to the guidelines.

Keywords: imaging, guidelines, emergency medicine, audit

Procedia PDF Downloads 61

Authors: Shiao-Wei Chu

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In order to enhance the ability of their graduates to compete in an increasingly globalized economy, the majority of universities in Taiwan require students to pass Freshman English in order to earn a bachelor's degree. However, many college students show low motivation in English class for several important reasons, including exam-oriented lessons, unengaging classroom activities, a lack of opportunities to use English in authentic contexts, and low levels of confidence in using English. Students’ lack of motivation in English classes is evidenced when students doze off, work on assignments from other classes, or use their phones to chat with others, play video games or watch online shows. Cooperative learning aims to address these problems by encouraging language learners to use the target language to share individual experiences, cooperatively complete tasks, and to build a supportive classroom learning community whereby students take responsibility for one another’s learning. This study includes approximately 50 student participants in a low-proficiency Freshman English class. Each week, participants will work together in groups of between 3 and 4 students to complete various in-class interactive tasks. The instructor will employ a reward system that incentivizes students to be responsible for their own as well as their group mates’ learning. The rewards will be based on points that team members earn through formal assessment scores as well as assessment of their participation in weekly in-class discussions. The instructor will record each team’s week-by-week improvement. Once a team meets or exceeds its own earlier performance, the team’s members will each receive a reward from the instructor. This cooperative learning approach aims to stimulate EFL freshmen’s learning motivation by creating a supportive, low-pressure learning environment that is meant to build learners’ self-confidence. Students will practice all four language skills; however, the present study focuses primarily on the learners’ reading comprehension. Data sources include in-class discussion notes, instructor field notes, one-on-one interviews, students’ midterm and final written reflections, and reading scores. Triangulation is used to determine themes and concerns, and an instructor-colleague analyzes the qualitative data to build interrater reliability. Findings are presented through the researcher’s detailed description. The instructor-researcher has developed this approach in the classroom over several terms, and its apparent success at motivating students inspires this research. The aims of this study are twofold: first, to examine the possible benefits of this cooperative approach in terms of students’ learning outcomes; and second, to help other educators to adapt a more cooperative approach to their classrooms.

Keywords: freshman English, cooperative language learning, EFL learners, learning motivation, zone of proximal development

Procedia PDF Downloads 131

Authors: Agnieszka Antończyk, MałGorzata Ochota, Wojciech Niżański, ZdzisłAw Kiełbowicz

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The goal of the cesarean section (CS) is the delivery of healthy, vigorous pups with the provision of surgical plane anesthesia, appropriate analgesia, and rapid recovery of the dam. In human medicine, spinal or epidural anesthesia is preferred for a cesarean section as associated with a lower risk of neonatal asphyxia and the need for resuscitation. Nevertheless, the specificity of veterinary patients makes the application of regional anesthesia as a sole technique impractical, thus to obtain patient compliance the general anesthesia is required. This study aimed to compare the influence of balanced (inhalant with epidural) and inhalant anesthesia on neonatal umbilical cord blood gas (UCBG) parameters and vitality (modified Apgar scoring). The bitches (31) undergoing elective CS were enrolled in this study. All females received a single dose of 0.2 mg/kg s.c. Meloxicam. Females were randomly assigned into two groups: Gr I (Isoflurane, n=16) and Gr IE (Isoflurane plus Epidural, n=15). Anesthesia was induced with propofol at 4-6 mg/kg to effect, and maintained with isoflurane in oxygen; in IE group epidural anesthesia was also done using lidocaine (3-4 mg/kg) into the lumbosacral space. CSs were performed using a standard mid-line approach. Directly after the puppy extraction, the umbilical cord was double clamped before the placenta detachment. The vessels were gently stretched between forceps to allow blood sampling. At least 100 mcl of mixed umbilical cord blood was collected into a heparinized syringe for further analysis. The modified Apgar scoring system (AS) was used to objectively score neonatal health and vitality immediately after birth (before first aid or neonatal care was instituted), at 5 and 20 min after birth. The neonates were scored as normal (AS 7-10), weak (AS 4-6), or critical (AS 0-3). During surgery, the IE group required a lower isoflurane concentration compared to the females in group I (MAC 1.05±0.2 and 1.4±0.13, respectively, p<0.01). All investigated UCBG parameters were not statistically different between groups. All pups had mild acidosis (pH 7.21±0.08 and 7.21±0.09 in Gr I and IE, respectively) with moderately elevated pCO2 (Gr I 57.18±11.48, Gr IE 58.74±15.07), HCO3- on the lower border (Gr I 22.58±3.24, Gr IE 22.83±3.6), lowered BE (Gr I -6.1±3.57, Gr IE -5.6±4.19) and mildly elevated level of lactates (Gr I 2.58±1.48, Gr IE2.53±1.03). The glucose levels were above the reference limits in both groups of puppies (74.50±25.32 in Gr I, 79.50±29.73 in Gr IE). The initial Apgar score results were similar in I and IE groups. However, the subsequent measurements of AS revealed significant differences between both groups. Puppies from the IE group received better AS scores at 5 and 20 min compared to the I group (6.86±2.23 and 8.06±2.06 vs 5.11±2.40 and 7.83±2.05, respectively). The obtained results demonstrated that administration of epidural anesthesia reduced the requirement for isoflurane in dams undergoing cesarean section and did not affect the neonatal umbilical blood gas results. Moreover, newborns from the epidural anesthesia group were scored significantly higher in AS at 5 and 20 min, indicating their better vitality and quicker improvement post-surgery.

Keywords: apgar scoring, balanced anesthesia, cesarean section, umbilical blood gas

Procedia PDF Downloads 160

Authors: M. A. N. Rasanjalee Perera

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The world is facing several problems due to increasing elderly population. In Sri Lanka, along with the complexity of the modern society and structural and functional changes of the family, “caring for elders” seems as an emerging social problem. This situation may intensify as the county is moving into a middle income society. Seeking higher education and related career opportunities, and urban living in modern housing are new trends, through which several problems are generated. Among many issues related with elders, “lack of accessible and appropriate facilities in their houses as well as public buildings” can be identified as a major problem. This study argues that welfare facilities provided for the elderly people, particularly in the home environment, in the country are not adequate. Modern housing features such as bathrooms, pantries, lobbies, and leisure areas etc. are questionable as to whether they match with elders’ physical and mental needs. Consequently, elders have to face domestic accidents and many other difficulties within their living environments. Records of hospitals in the country also proved this fact. Therefore, this study tries to identify how far modern houses are suited with elders’ needs. The study further questioned whether “aging” is a considerable matter when people are buying, planning and renovating houses. A randomly selected sample of 50 houses were observed and 50 persons were interviewed around the Maharagama urban area in Colombo district to obtain primary data, while relevant secondary data and information were used to have a depth analysis. The study clearly found that none of the houses included to the sample are considering elders’ needs in planning, renovating, or arranging the home. Instead, most of the families were giving priority to the rich and elegant appearance and modern facilities of the houses. Particularly, to the bathrooms, pantry, large setting areas, balcony, parking slots for two vehicles, ad parapet walls with roller-gates are the main concerns. A significant factor found here is that even though, many children of the aged are in middle age and reaching their older years at present, they do not plan their future living within a safe and comfortable home, despite that they are hoping to spent the latter part of their lives in the their current homes. This fact highlights that not only the other responsible parts of the society, but also those who are reaching their older ages are ignoring the problems of the aged. At the same time, it was found that more than 80% of old parents do not like to stay at their children’s homes as the living environments in such modern homes are not familiar or convenient for them. Due to this context, the aged in Sri Lanka may have to be alone in their own homes due to current trend of society of migrating to urban living in modern houses. At the same time, current urban families who live in modern houses may have to face adding accessible facilities in their home environment, as current modern housing facilities may not be appropriate them for a better life in their latter part of life.

Keywords: aging population, elderly care, home environment, housing facilities

Procedia PDF Downloads 109

Authors: Diana Mitova, Krassimir Mitrev

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To prepare the current generation for the future, education systems need to change. It implies a way of learning that meets the demands of the times and the environment in which we live. Productive interaction in the educational process implies an interactive learning environment and the possibility of personal development of learners based on communication and mutual dialogue, cooperation and good partnership in decision-making. Students need not only theoretical knowledge, but transferable skills that will help them to become inventors and entrepreneurs, to implement ideas. STEM education , is now a real necessity for the modern school. Through learning in a "learning company", students master examples from classroom practice, simulate real life situations, group activities and apply basic interactive learning strategies and techniques. The learning company is the subject of this study, reduced to entrepreneurship training in STEM - technologies that encourage students to think outside the traditional box. STEM learning focuses the teacher's efforts on modeling entrepreneurial thinking and behavior in students and helping them solve problems in the world of business and entrepreneurship. Learning based on the implementation of various STEM projects in extracurricular activities, experiential learning, and an interdisciplinary approach are means by which educators better connect the local community and private businesses. Learners learn to be creative, experiment and take risks and work in teams - the leading characteristics of any innovator and future entrepreneur. This article presents some European policies on STEM and entrepreneurship education. It also shares best practices for training company training , with the integration of STEM in the learning company training environment. The main results boil down to identifying some advantages and problems in STEM entrepreneurship education. The benefits of using integrative approaches to teach STEM within a training company are identified, as well as the positive effects of project-based learning in a training company using STEM. Best practices for teaching entrepreneurship through extracurricular activities using STEM within a training company are shared. The following research methods are applied in this research paper: Theoretical and comparative analysis of principles and policies of European Union countries and Bulgaria in the field of entrepreneurship education through a training company. Experiences in entrepreneurship education through extracurricular activities with STEM application within a training company are shared. A questionnaire survey to investigate the motivation of secondary vocational school students to learn entrepreneurship through a training company and their readiness to start their own business after completing their education. Within the framework of learning through a "learning company" with the integration of STEM, the activity of the teacher-facilitator includes the methods: counseling, supervising and advising students during work. The expectation is that students acquire the key competence "initiative and entrepreneurship" and that the cooperation between the vocational education system and the business in Bulgaria is more effective.

Keywords: STEM, entrepreneurship, training company, extracurricular activities

Procedia PDF Downloads 80

Authors: Gadanya, A.M., Ponfa, S., Jibril, M.M., Abubakar, S. M.

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Background: Edible insects such as grasshopper are important sources of food for humans, and have been consumed as traditional foods by many indigenous communities especially in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. These communities have developed their skills and techniques in harvesting, preparing, consuming, and preserving edible insects, widely contributing to the role played by the use of insects in human nutrition. Aim/ objective: This study was aimed at determining the effect of insect enriched sprouted soyabean /millet based food on some gut health markers in albino rats. Methods. Four different formulations of Complementary foods (i.e Complementary Food B (CFB): sprouted millet (SM), Complementary Food C (CFC): sprouted soyabean (SSB), Complementary Food D (CFD): sprouted soybean and millet (SSBM) in a ratio of (50:50) and Complementary Food E (CFE): insect (grasshopper) enriched sprouted soybean and millet (SSBMI) in a ratio of (50:25:25)) were prepared. Proximate composition and short chain fatty acid contents were determined. Thirty albino rats were divided into5 groups of six rats each. Group 1(CDA) were fed with basal diet and served as a control group, while groups 2,3,4 and 5 were fed with the corresponding complimentary foods CFB, CFC, CFD and CFE respectively daily for four weeks. Concentrations of fecal protein, serum total carotenoids and nitric oxide were determined. DNA extraction for molecular isolation and characterization were carried out followed by PCR, the use of mega 11 software and NCBI blast for construction of the phylogenetic tree and organism identification respectively. Results: Significant increase (P<0.05) in percentage ash, fat, protein and moisture contents, as well as short chain fatty acid (acetate, butyrate and propionate) concentrations were recorded in the insect enriched sprouted composite food (CFE) when compared with the CFA, CFB, CFC and CFD composite food. Faecal protein, carotenoid and nitric oxide concentrations were significantly lower (P>0.05) in group 5 in comparison to groups 1to 4. Ruminococcus bromii and Bacteroidetes were molecularly isolated and characterized by 16s rRNA from the sprouted millet/sprouted soybean and the insect enriched sprouted soybean/sprouted millet based food respectively. The presence of these bacterial strains in the feaces of the treated rats is an indication that the gut of the treated rats is colonized by good gut bacteria, hence, an improved gut health. Conclusion: Insect enriched sprouted soya bean/sprouted millet based complementary diet showed a high composition of ash, fat, protein and fiber. Thus, could increase the availability of short chain fatty acids whose role to the host organism cannot be overemphasized. It was also found to have decrease the level of faecal protein, carotenoid and nitric oxide in the serum which is an indication of an improvement in the immune system function.

Keywords: gut-health, insect, millet, soybean, sprouted

Procedia PDF Downloads 49

Authors: Lenuta Kloetzer, Alexandra C. Blaga, Dan Cascaval, Alexandra Tucaliuc, Anca I. Galaction

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Rosmarinic acid, an ester of caffeic acid and 3-(3,4-dihydroxyphenyl) lactic acid, is considered a valuable compound for the pharmaceutical and cosmetic industries due to its antimicrobial, antioxidant, antiviral, anti-allergic, and anti-inflammatory effects. It can be obtained by extraction from vegetable or animal materials, by chemical synthesis and biosynthesis. Indifferent of the method used for rosmarinic acid production, the separation and purification process implies high amount of raw materials and laborious stages leading to high cost for and limitations of the separation technology. This study focused on separation of rosmarinic acid by synergic reactive extraction with a mixture of two extractants, one acidic (acid di-(2ethylhexyl) phosphoric acid, D2EHPA) and one with basic character (Amberlite LA-2). The studies were performed in experimental equipment consisting of an extraction column where the phases’ mixing was made by mean of a perforated disk with 45 mm diameter and 20% free section, maintained at the initial contact interface between the aqueous and organic phases. The vibrations had a frequency of 50 s⁻¹ and 5 mm amplitude. The extraction was carried out in two solvents with different dielectric constants (n-heptane and dichloromethane) in which the extractants mixture of varying concentration was dissolved. The pH-value of initial aqueous solution was varied between 1 and 7. The efficiency of the studied extraction systems was quantified by distribution and synergic coefficients. For calculating these parameters, the rosmarinic acid concentration in the initial aqueous solution and in the raffinate have been measured by HPLC. The influences of extractants concentrations and solvent polarity on the efficiency of rosmarinic acid separation by synergic extraction with a mixture of Amberlite LA-2 and D2EHPA have been analyzed. In the reactive extraction system with a constant concentration of Amberlite LA-2 in the organic phase, the increase of D2EHPA concentration leads to decrease of the synergic coefficient. This is because the increase of D2EHPA concentration prevents the formation of amine adducts and, consequently, affects the hydrophobicity of the interfacial complex with rosmarinic acid. For these reasons, the diminution of synergic coefficient is more important for dichloromethane. By maintaining a constant value of D2EHPA concentration and increasing the concentration of Amberlite LA-2, the synergic coefficient could become higher than 1, its highest values being reached for n-heptane. Depending on the solvent polarity and D2EHPA amount in the solvent phase, the synergic effect is observed for Amberlite LA-2 concentrations over 20 g/l dissolved in n-heptane. Thus, by increasing the concentration of D2EHPA from 5 to 40 g/l, the minimum concentration value of Amberlite LA-2 corresponding to synergism increases from 20 to 40 g/l for the solvent with lower polarity, namely, n-heptane, while there is no synergic effect recorded for dichloromethane. By analysing the influences of the main factors (organic phase polarity, extractant concentration in the mixture) on the efficiency of synergic extraction of rosmarinic acid, the most important synergic effect was found to correspond to the extractants mixture containing 5 g/l D2EHPA and 40 g/l Amberlite LA-2 dissolved in n-heptane.

Keywords: Amberlite LA-2, di(2-ethylhexyl) phosphoric acid, rosmarinic acid, synergic effect

Procedia PDF Downloads 275

Authors: Fangfang Wang, Tianjing Wang, Leyi Fu, Feng Yun, Ningning Xie, Jue Zhou, Fan Qu

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Background: Ferroptosis, a recently discovered form of programmed cell death characterized by iron-dependent lipid peroxidation, may be linked to polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS). Diseases marked by iron overload have been correlated with ferroptosis. Coincidently, investigations have revealed anomalies in iron metabolism among women with PCOS; however, there were inconsistencies in the evidence. Objective and Rationale: This review aimed to comprehensively explore the potential relationship between ferroptosis and PCOS by investigating the differences in iron metabolism among women with PCOS in comparison to a control group. Additionally, a narrative synthesis was provided on the past research status regarding the association between PCOS and ferroptosis. Methods: A systematic search of the literature was performed using PubMed, Embase, Web of Science from inception up to December 2022. Search terms relating to assisted PCOS, ferroptosis, and iron metabolism were used. PRISMA guidance was followed. RevMan 5.4 was utilized for conducting the meta-analysis, wherein the investigated outcomes included iron status (ferritin, iron, transferrin saturation) and a systemic iron-regulatory hormone (hepcidin). A narrative synthesis was performed to explore the correlation between PCOS and ferroptosis. Results: In the meta-analysis comprising a total of 16 studies, significant differences in serum ferritin levels between the PCOS group and the control group were observed (15 studies, standardized mean difference (SMD): 0.41, 95% CI: 0.22 to 0.59, P<0.01). This indicates elevated serum ferritin levels in PCOS patients compared to women without PCOS. The transferrin saturation in PCOS patients was significantly higher than that in the control group (3 studies, mean difference (MD): 4.39, 95% CI: 1.67 to 7.11, P<0.01). Regarding serum iron (6 studies, SMD: 0.05, 95% CI: -0.24 to 0.33, P=0.75) and serum hepcidin (4 studies, SMD: -0.44, 95% CI: -1.41 to 0.52, P=0.37), no statistically significant differences were observed between the PCOS group and the control group. Other studies have found that ferroptosis is involved in the occurrence and development of PCOS, offering valuable insights for guiding potential treatment measures and prognosis evaluation of PCOS. In addition, ferroptosis is involved in the miscarriage of PCOS-like rats; thus, controlling ferroptosis might improve pregnancy outcomes in PCOS. Conclusions: The observation of a significant elevation in serum ferritin and transferrin saturation levels in women with PCOS may suggest an underlying disturbance in iron metabolism, potentially inducing the activation of ferroptosis. Further research is imperative to elucidate the underlying pathophysiology, providing insights for potential preventive measures and therapeutic strategies. Limitation: There are some limitations as follows: First, due to limited extractable information, we excluded purely abstract publications and non-English publications. Second, the majority of original articles were case-control studies, making it difficult to determine the causal relationship between iron metabolism abnormalities and the onset of PCOS. Third, there is substantial heterogeneity in the definition of PCOS.

Keywords: polycystic ovary syndrome, ferroptosis, iron metabolism, systematic review and meta-analysis

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Authors: Amin Salighehdar, Ziwen Ye, Mingzhe Liu, Ionut Florescu, Alan F. Blumberg

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Storm surge is an abnormal water level caused by a storm. Accurate prediction of a storm surge is a challenging problem. Researchers developed various ensemble modeling techniques to combine several individual forecasts to produce an overall presumably better forecast. There exist some simple ensemble modeling techniques in literature. For instance, Model Output Statistics (MOS), and running mean-bias removal are widely used techniques in storm surge prediction domain. However, these methods have some drawbacks. For instance, MOS is based on multiple linear regression and it needs a long period of training data. To overcome the shortcomings of these simple methods, researchers propose some advanced methods. For instance, ENSURF (Ensemble SURge Forecast) is a multi-model application for sea level forecast. This application creates a better forecast of sea level using a combination of several instances of the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). An ensemble dressing method is based on identifying best member forecast and using it for prediction. Our contribution in this paper can be summarized as follows. First, we investigate whether the ensemble models perform better than any single forecast. Therefore, we need to identify the single best forecast. We present a methodology based on a simple Bayesian selection method to select the best single forecast. Second, we present several new and simple ways to construct ensemble models. We use correlation and standard deviation as weights in combining different forecast models. Third, we use these ensembles and compare with several existing models in literature to forecast storm surge level. We then investigate whether developing a complex ensemble model is indeed needed. To achieve this goal, we use a simple average (one of the simplest and widely used ensemble model) as benchmark. Predicting the peak level of Surge during a storm as well as the precise time at which this peak level takes place is crucial, thus we develop a statistical platform to compare the performance of various ensemble methods. This statistical analysis is based on root mean square error of the ensemble forecast during the testing period and on the magnitude and timing of the forecasted peak surge compared to the actual time and peak. In this work, we analyze four hurricanes: hurricanes Irene and Lee in 2011, hurricane Sandy in 2012, and hurricane Joaquin in 2015. Since hurricane Irene developed at the end of August 2011 and hurricane Lee started just after Irene at the beginning of September 2011, in this study we consider them as a single contiguous hurricane event. The data set used for this study is generated by the New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System (NYHOPS). We find that even the simplest possible way of creating an ensemble produces results superior to any single forecast. We also show that the ensemble models we propose generally have better performance compared to the simple average ensemble technique.

Keywords: Bayesian learning, ensemble model, statistical analysis, storm surge prediction

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Authors: Yadira Tejeda, Wynette Whitegoat, Dylan Jones, Brett Drake

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Background and Purpose: Hispanic and American Indian/Alaska Native (AI/AN) families impacted by child protective services (CPS) continue to be a population in literature where little is known. There is less known about the fathers of these children and the safety or risk factors attributed to child maltreatment and case outcomes. However, it is known that involving fathers in children’s lives is needed for healthy development, academic achievement, and cognitive development. The few articles that have studied the impacts of engaging fathers in the CPS have found that children in general experience shorter times in foster care, are likely to reunify with their biological family, and overall have better case outcomes. The purpose of this study is to determine whether perpetrators identified as the mother, father, or both impact foster care placement in Hispanic and AI/AN families in CPS. Methods: Using NCANDS Child File data, the selected reports submitted in FY2017 with at least one substantiated allegation, i.e. those with perpetrator information. Reports were categorized into one of three categories: mom-perpetrator-only, father-perpetrator-only, and both. Reports that did not fall into any one of these three categorizations were omitted (<18%). Lastly, only reports where the mother and father self-identified as Hispanic or AI/AN were kept. Foster care placement was measured if any child in the report was placed within three months of the report date. Multilevel Logistic Regression models (random intercepts at the state and county) were used to model the relationship between report-parent type and foster care placement. Controls included Maltreatment types, number of children, any prior reports, and age of the youngest child. Results: For AI/AN reports, 64% were mom-perpetrator-only, 20% were father-perpetrator-only, and 16% both. Father-perpetrator-only reports had 60% lower odds of placement than mom-perpetrator-only, and both had 35% greater odds than mom-only. For Hispanics, 51% were mom-perpetrator-only, 30% father-perpetrator-only, and 19% both. Father-perpetrator-only reports had 74% lower odds than mom-perpetrator-only, and both had 55% greater odds than mom-perpetrator-only. Conclusion and Implications: Fatherhood research focused on prevention and intervention services should include Hispanic and AI/AN fathers to create culturally relevant and tailored services for both groups. By identifying differences in children’s CPS trajectories conditional on fathers’ involvement as a perpetrator, this analysis helps to inform where and how prevention efforts should be focused when considering variation in parental involvement for both populations. The findings indicate that the father’s involvement predicts substantial differences in the probability of future placement, with the direction depending on the mother’s joint involvement. Future research should investigate mediating pathways of these relationships while accounting for the unique experiences of AI/AN and Hispanic families. Each of these racial groups faces unique and differing challenges related to CPS, yet both groups have a shared understanding of the importance of fatherhood in the lives of children. Developing a better understanding of what is happening with Hispanic and AI/AN fathers as it relates to children's CPS experiences may result in new tools to reduce child maltreatment rates in these communities.

Keywords: child Abuse, child maltreatment, NDACAN, latino, native American

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Authors: Vinu Elias Jacob, Manoj Kumar Kini

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Disasters of all types are occurring more frequently and are becoming more costly than ever due to various manmade factors including climate change. A better utilisation of the concept of governance and management within disaster risk reduction is inevitable and of utmost importance. There is a need to explore the role of pre- and post-disaster public policies. The role of urban planning/design in shaping the opportunities of households, individuals and collectively the settlements for achieving recovery has to be explored. Governance strategies that can better support the integration of disaster risk reduction and management has to be examined. The main aim is to thereby build the resilience of individuals and communities and thus, the states too. Resilience is a term that is usually linked to the fields of disaster management and mitigation, but today has become an integral part of planning and design of cities. Disaster resilience broadly describes the ability of an individual or community to 'bounce back' from disaster impacts, through improved mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery. The growing population of the world has resulted in the inflow and use of resources, creating a pressure on the various natural systems and inequity in the distribution of resources. This makes cities vulnerable to multiple attacks by both natural and man-made disasters. Each urban area needs elaborate studies and study based strategies to proceed in the discussed direction. Cochin in Kerala is the fastest and largest growing city with a population of more than 26 lakhs. The main concern that has been looked into in this paper is making cities resilient by designing a framework of strategies based on urban design principles for an immediate response system especially focussing on the city of Cochin, Kerala, India. The paper discusses, understanding the spatial transformations due to disasters and the role of spatial planning in the context of significant disasters. The paper also aims in developing a model taking into consideration of various factors such as land use, open spaces, transportation networks, physical and social infrastructure, building design, and density and ecology that can be implemented in any city of any context. Guidelines are made for the smooth evacuation of people through hassle-free transport networks, protecting vulnerable areas in the city, providing adequate open spaces for shelters and gatherings, making available basic amenities to affected population within reachable distance, etc. by using the tool of urban design. Strategies at the city level and neighbourhood level have been developed with inferences from vulnerability analysis and case studies.

Keywords: disaster management, resilience, spatial planning, spatial transformations

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Authors: Mohammad R. Bhuyan, Mohammad J. Khattak

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Deterioration of flexible pavements due to crack reflection from its soil-cement base layer is a major concern around the globe. The service life of flexible pavement diminishes significantly because of the reflective cracks. Highway agencies are struggling for decades to prevent or mitigate these cracks in order to increase pavement service lives. The root cause of reflective cracks is the shrinkage crack which occurs in the soil-cement bases during the cement hydration process. The primary factor that causes the shrinkage is the cement content of the soil-cement mixture. With the increase of cement content, the soil-cement base gains strength and durability, which is necessary to withstand the traffic loads. But at the same time, higher cement content creates more shrinkage resulting in more reflective cracks in pavements. Historically, various states of USA have used the soil-cement bases for constructing flexile pavements. State of Louisiana (USA) had been using 8 to 10 percent of cement content to manufacture the soil-cement bases. Such traditional soil-cement bases yield 2.0 MPa (300 psi) 7-day compressive strength and are termed as cement stabilized design (CSD). As these CSD bases generate significant reflective cracks, another design of soil-cement base has been utilized by adding 4 to 6 percent of cement content called cement treated design (CTD), which yields 1.0 MPa (150 psi) 7-day compressive strength. The reduction of cement content in the CTD base is expected to minimize shrinkage cracks thus increasing pavement service lives. Hence, this research study evaluates the long-term field performance of CTD bases with respect to CSD bases used in flexible pavements. Pavement Management System of the state of Louisiana was utilized to select flexible pavement projects with CSD and CTD bases that had good historical record and time-series distress performance data. It should be noted that the state collects roughness and distress data for 1/10th mile section every 2-year period. In total, 120 CSD and CTD projects were analyzed in this research, where more than 145 miles (CTD) and 175 miles (CSD) of roadways data were accepted for performance evaluation and benefit-cost analyses. Here, the service life extension and area based on distress performance were considered as benefits. It was found that CTD bases increased 1 to 5 years of pavement service lives based on transverse cracking as compared to CSD bases. On the other hand, the service lives based on longitudinal and alligator cracking, rutting and roughness index remain the same. Hence, CTD bases provide some service life extension (2.6 years, on average) to the controlling distress; transverse cracking, but it was inexpensive due to its lesser cement content. Consequently, CTD bases become 20% more cost-effective than the traditional CSD bases, when both bases were compared by net benefit-cost ratio obtained from all distress types.

Keywords: cement treated base, cement stabilized base, reflective cracking , service life, flexible pavement

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Authors: S. Fares, K. Mellakh, A. Hmouri

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The StorMer project aims to set up a network of researchers to study traditional hydraulic rainwater harvesting systems in the Mediterranean basin, a region suffering from the major impacts of climate change and limited natural water resources. The arid and semi-arid Mediterranean basin has a long history of pioneering water management practices. The region has developed various ancient traditional water management systems, such as cisterns and qanats, to sustainably manage water resources under historical conditions of scarcity. Therefore, the StorMer project brings together Spain, France, Italy, Greece, Jordan and Morocco to explore traditional rainwater harvesting practices and systems in the Mediterranean region and to develop accurate modeling to simulate the performance and sustainability of these technologies under present-day climatic conditions. The ultimate goal of this project was to resuscitate and valorize these practices in the context of contemporary challenges. This project was intended to establish a Mediterranean network to serve as a basis for a more ambitious project. The ultimate objective was to analyze traditional hydraulic systems and create a prototype hydraulic ecosystem using a coupled environmental approach and traditional and ancient know-how, with the aim of reinterpreting them in the light of current techniques. The combination of ‘traditional’ and ‘modern knowledge/techniques’ is expected to lead to proposals for innovative hydraulic systems. The pandemic initially slowed our progress, but in the end it forced us to carry out the fieldwork in Morocco and Saudi Arabia, and so restart the project. With the participation of colleagues from chronologically distant fields (archaeology, sociology), we are now prepared to share our observations and propose the next steps. This interdisciplinary approach should give us a global vision of the project's objectives and challenges. A diachronic approach is needed to tackle the question of the long-term adaptation of societies in a Mediterranean context that has experienced several periods of water stress. The next stage of the StorMer project is the implementation of pilots in non-urbanized regions. These pilots will test the implementation of traditional systems and will be maintained and evaluated in terms of effectiveness, cost and acceptance. Based on these experiences, larger projects will be proposed and could provide information for regional water management policies. One of the most important lessons learned from this project is the highly social nature of managing traditional rainwater harvesting systems. Unlike modern, centralized water infrastructures, these systems often require the involvement of communities, which assume ownership and responsibility for them. This kind of community engagement leads to greater maintenance and, therefore, sustainability of the systems. Knowledge of the socio-cultural characteristics of these communities means that the systems can be adapted to the needs of each location, ensuring greater acceptance and efficiency.

Keywords: oasis, rainfall harvesting, arid regions, Mediterranean

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Authors: Katarina Ott, Velibor Mačkić, Mihaela Bronić, Branko Stanić

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The determinants of national budget transparency have been widely discussed in the literature, while research on determinants of local budget transparency are scarce and empirically inconclusive, particularly in the new, fiscally centralised, EU member states. To fill the gap, we combine two strands of the literature: that concerned with public administration and public finance, shedding light on the economic and financial determinants of local budget transparency, and that on the political economy of transparency (principal agent theory), covering the relationships among politicians and between politicians and voters. Our main hypothesis states that variables describing residents’ capacity have a greater impact on local budget transparency than variables indicating the institutional capacity of local government units (LGUs). Additional subhypotheses test the impact of each variable analysed on local budget transparency. We address the determinants of local budget transparency in Croatia, measured by the number of key local budget documents published on the LGUs’ websites. By using a data set of 128 cities and 428 municipalities over the 2015-2017 period and by applying panel data analysis based on Poisson and negative binomial distribution, we test our main hypothesis and sub-hypotheses empirically. We measure different characteristics of institutional and residents’ capacity for each LGU. Age, education and ideology of the mayor/municipality head, political competition indicators, number of employees, current budget revenues and direct debt per capita have been used as a measure of the institutional capacity of LGU. Residents’ capacity in each LGU has been measured through the numbers of citizens and their average age as well as by average income per capita. The most important determinant of local budget transparency is average residents' income per capita at both city and municipality level. The results are in line with most previous research results in fiscally decentralised countries. In the context of a fiscally centralised country with numerous small LGUs, most of whom have low administrative and fiscal capacity, this has a theoretical rationale in the legitimacy and principal-agent theory (opportunistic motives of the incumbent). The result is robust and significant, but because of the various other results that change between city and municipality levels (e.g. ideology and political competition), there is a need for further research (both on identifying other determinates and/or methods of analysis). Since in Croatia the fiscal capacity of a LGU depends heavily on the income of its residents, units with higher per capita incomes in many cases have also higher budget revenues allowing them to engage more employees and resources. In addition, residents’ incomes might be also positively associated with local budget transparency because of higher citizen demand for such transparency. Residents with higher incomes expect more public services and have more access to and experience in using the Internet, and will thus typically demand more budget information on the LGUs’ websites.

Keywords: budget transparency, count data, Croatia, local government, political economy

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Authors: Motaz Alsolaim

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Nowadays, the challenges of running a start-up can be very complex and are perhaps more difficult than at any other time in the past. Changes in technology, manufacturing innovation, and product development, combined with intense competition and market regulations are factors that have put pressure on classic ways of managing firms, thereby forcing change. As a result, the rate of closure, exit or discontinuation of start-ups and young businesses is very high. Despite the essential role of small firms in an economy, they still tend to face obstacles that exert a negative influence on their performance and rate of survival. In fact, it is not easy to determine with any certainty the reasons why small firms fail. For this reason, failure itself is not clearly defined, and its exact causes are hard to diagnose. In this current study, therefore, the barriers to survival will be covered more broadly, especially personal/entrepreneurial, enterprise and environmental factors with regard to various possible reasons for this failure, in order to determine the best solutions and make appropriate recommendations. Methodology: It could be argued that mixed methods might help to improve entrepreneurship research addressing challenges emphasis in previous studies and to achieve the triangulation. Calls for the combined use of quantitative and qualitative research were also made in the entrepreneurship field since entrepreneurship is a multi-faceted area of research. Therefore, explanatory sequential mixed method was used, using questionnaire online survey for entrepreneurs, followed by semi-structure interview. Collecting over 750 surveys and accepting 296 valid surveys, after that 13 interviews from government official seniors, businessmen successful entrepreneurs, and non-successful entrepreneurs. Findings: The first phase findings ( quantitative) shows the obstacles to survive; starting from the personal/ entrepreneurial factors such as; past work experience, lack of skills and interest, are positive factors, while; gender, age and education level of the owner are negative factors. Internal factors such as lack of marketing research and weak business planning are positive. The environmental factors; in economic perspectives; difficulty to find labors, in socio-cultural perspectives; Social restriction and traditions found to be a negative factors. In other hand, from the political perspective; cost of compliance and insufficient government plans found to be a positive factors for small business failure. From infrastructure perspective; lack of skills labor, high level of bureaucracy and lack of information are positive factors. Conclusion: This paper serves to enrich the understanding of failure factors in MENA region more precisely in SA, by minimizing the probability of failure in small-micro entrepreneurial start-up in SA, in the light of the Saudi government’s Vision 2030 plan.

Keywords: small business barriers, start-up business, entrepreneurship, Saudi Arabia

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Authors: Cheh-Shyh Ting, Jiin-Liang Lin

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This study was conducted at the Wanglung Farm in Pingtung County to test the groundwater seepage influences on the implemented project for artificial groundwater recharge. The study was divided into three phases. The first phase, conducted on natural groundwater that was recharged through the local climate and growing conditions, observed the natural form of vegetation species. The original plants were flooded, and after 60 days it was observed that of the original plants only Goosegrass (Eleusine indica) and Black heart (Polygonum lapathifolium Linn.) remained. Direct infiltration tests were carried out, and calculations for the effect of vegetation on infiltration velocity of the recharge pool were noted. The second phase was an indoor test. Bahia grass and wild amaranth were selected as vegetation roots. After growth, the distribution of different grassroots was observed in order to facilitate a comparison permeability coefficient calculated by the amount of penetration and to explore the relationship between density and the efficiency to groundwater recharge. The third phase was the root tomography analysis, further observation of the development of plant roots using computed tomography technology. Computed Tomography, also known as (CT), is a diagnostic imaging examination, normally used in the medical field. In the first phase of the feasibility study, most non-aquatic plants wilted and died within seven days. In seven days, the remaining plants were used for experimental infiltration analysis. Results showed that in eight hours of infiltration test, Eleusine indica stems averaged 0.466 m/day and wild amaranth averaged 0.014 m/day. The second phase of the experiment was conducted on the remains of the plant a week in it had died and rotted, and the infiltration experiment was performed under these conditions. The results showed eight hours in end of the infiltration test, Eleusine indica stems averaged 0.033 m/day, and wild amaranth averaged 0.098 m/day. Non-aquatic plants died within two weeks, and their rotted remains clogged the pores of bottom soil particles, causing obstruction of recharge pool infiltration. Experiment results showed that eight hours in the test the average infiltration velocity for Eleusine indica stems was 0.0229 m/day and wild amaranth averaged 0.0117 m/day. Since the rotted roots of the plants blocked the pores of the soil in the recharge pool, which resulted in the obstruction of the artificial infiltration pond and showed an immediate impact on recharge efficiency. In order to observe the development of plant roots, the third phase used computed tomography imaging. Iodine developer was injected into the Black heart, allowing its cross-sectional images to be shown on CT and to be used to observe root development.

Keywords: artificial recharge of groundwater, computed tomography, infiltration velocity, vegetation root system

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Authors: Amirhosein Moonesi Shabestary, Eckhard Krepper, Dirk Lucas

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The current PhD project comprises CFD-modeling and simulation of condensation and heat transfer inside horizontal pipes. Condensation plays an important role in emergency cooling systems of reactors. The emergency cooling system consists of inclined horizontal pipes which are immersed in a tank of subcooled water. In the case of an accident the water level in the core is decreasing, steam comes in the emergency pipes, and due to the subcooled water around the pipe, this steam will start to condense. These horizontal pipes act as a strong heat sink which is responsible for a quick depressurization of the reactor core when any accident happens. This project is defined in order to model all these processes which happening in the emergency cooling systems. The most focus of the project is on detection of different morphologies such as annular flow, stratified flow, slug flow and plug flow. This project is an ongoing project which has been started 1 year ago in Helmholtz Zentrum Dresden Rossendorf (HZDR), Fluid Dynamics department. In HZDR most in cooperation with ANSYS different models are developed for modeling multiphase flows. Inhomogeneous MUSIG model considers the bubble size distribution and is used for modeling small-scaled dispersed gas phase. AIAD (Algebraic Interfacial Area Density Model) is developed for detection of the local morphology and corresponding switch between them. The recent model is GENTOP combines both concepts. GENTOP is able to simulate co-existing large-scaled (continuous) and small-scaled (polydispersed) structures. All these models are validated for adiabatic cases without any phase change. Therefore, the start point of the current PhD project is using the available models and trying to integrate phase transition and wall condensing models into them. In order to simplify the idea of condensation inside horizontal tubes, 3 steps have been defined. The first step is the investigation of condensation inside a horizontal tube by considering only direct contact condensation (DCC) and neglect wall condensation. Therefore, the inlet of the pipe is considered to be annular flow. In this step, AIAD model is used in order to detect the interface. The second step is the extension of the model to consider wall condensation as well which is closer to the reality. In this step, the inlet is pure steam, and due to the wall condensation, a liquid film occurs near the wall which leads to annular flow. The last step will be modeling of different morphologies which are occurring inside the tube during the condensation via using GENTOP model. By using GENTOP, the dispersed phase is able to be considered and simulated. Finally, the results of the simulations will be validated by experimental data which will be available also in HZDR.

Keywords: wall condensation, direct contact condensation, AIAD model, morphology detection

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Authors: Sadat Sembatya

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Tantalum metal is used in addressing capacitance challenge in the 21st-century technology growth. Tantalum is rarely found in its elemental form. Hence it’s often found with niobium and the radioactive elements of thorium and uranium. Industrial processes are required to extract pure tantalum. Its deposits are mainly oxide associated and exist in Ta-Nb oxides such as tapiolite, wodginite, ixiolite, rutile and pyrochlore-supergroup minerals are of minor importance. The stability and chemical inertness of tantalum makes it a valuable substance for laboratory equipment and a substitute for platinum. Each period of Tantalum ore formation is characterized by specific mineralogical and geochemical features. Compositions of Columbite-Group Minerals (CGM) are variable: Fe-rich types predominate in the Man Shield (Sierra Leone), the Congo Craton (DR Congo), the Kamativi Belt (Zimbabwe) and the Jos Plateau (Nigeria). Mn-rich columbite-tantalite is typical of the Alto Ligonha Province (Mozambique), the Arabian-Nubian Shield (Egypt, Ethiopia) and the Tantalite Valley pegmatites (southern Namibia). There are large compositional variations through Fe-Mn fractionation, followed by Nb-Ta fractionation. These are typical for pegmatites usually associated with very coarse quartz-feldspar-mica granites. They are young granitic systems of the Kibara Belt of Central Africa and the Older Granites of Nigeria. Unlike ‘simple’ Be-pegmatites, most Ta-Nb rich pegmatites have the most complex zoning. Hence we need systematic exploration tools to find and rapidly assess the potential of different pegmatites. The pegmatites exist as known deposits (e.g., abandoned mines) and the exposed or buried pegmatites. We investigate rocks and minerals to trace for the possibility of the effect of hydrothermal alteration mainly for exposed pegmatites, do mineralogical study to prove evidence of gradual replacement and geochemistry to report the availability of trace elements which are good indicators of mineralisation. Pegmatites are not good geophysical responders resulting to the exclusion of the geophysics option. As for more advanced prospecting, we bulk samples from different zones first to establish their grades and characteristics, then make a pilot test plant because of big samples to aid in the quantitative characterization of zones, and then drill to reveal distribution and extent of different zones but not necessarily grade due to nugget effect. Rapid assessment tools are needed to assess grade and degree of fractionation in order to ‘rule in’ or ‘rule out’ a given pegmatite for future work. Pegmatite exploration is also unique, high risk and expensive hence right traceability system and certification for 3Ts are highly needed.

Keywords: exploration, mineralogy, pegmatites, tantalum

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Authors: Mustafa İlhan Akbaş, Özlem Garibay, Ivan Garibay

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The economic entities in innovation ecosystems form various industry clusters, in which they compete and cooperate to survive and grow. Within a successful and stable industry cluster, the entities acquire different roles that complement each other in the system. The universities and research centers have been accepted to have a critical role in these systems for the creation and development of innovations. However, the real effect of research institutions on regional economic growth is difficult to assess. In this paper, we present our approach for the identification of the impact of research activities on the regional entrepreneurship for a specific high-tech industry: optics and photonics. The optics and photonics has been defined as an enabling industry, which combines the high-tech photonics technology with the developing optics industry. The recent literature suggests that the growth of optics and photonics firms depends on three important factors: the embedded regional specializations in the labor market, the research and development infrastructure, and a dynamic small firm network capable of absorbing new technologies, products and processes. Therefore, the role of each factor and the dynamics among them must be understood to identify the requirements of the entrepreneurship activities in optics and photonics industry. There are three main contributions of our approach. The recent studies show that the innovation in optics and photonics industry is mostly located around metropolitan areas. There are also studies mentioning the importance of research center locations and universities in the regional development of optics and photonics industry. These studies are mostly limited with the number of patents received within a short period of time or some limited survey results. Therefore the first contribution of our approach is conducting a comprehensive analysis for the state and recent history of the photonics and optics research in the US. For this purpose, both the research centers specialized in optics and photonics and the related research groups in various departments of institutions (e.g. Electrical Engineering, Materials Science) are identified and a geographical study of their locations is presented. The second contribution of the paper is the analysis of regional entrepreneurship activities in optics and photonics in recent years. We use the membership data of the International Society for Optics and Photonics (SPIE) and the regional photonics clusters to identify the optics and photonics companies in the US. Then the profiles and activities of these companies are gathered by extracting and integrating the related data from the National Establishment Time Series (NETS) database, ES-202 database and the data sets from the regional photonics clusters. The number of start-ups, their employee numbers and sales are some examples of the extracted data for the industry. Our third contribution is the utilization of collected data to investigate the impact of research institutions on the regional optics and photonics industry growth and entrepreneurship. In this analysis, the regional and periodical conditions of the overall market are taken into consideration while discovering and quantifying the statistical correlations.

Keywords: entrepreneurship, industrial clusters, optics, photonics, emerging industries, research centers

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Authors: Alexander Guzman Urbina, Atsushi Aoyama

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The sustainability of traditional technologies employed in energy and chemical infrastructure brings a big challenge for our society. Making decisions related with safety of industrial infrastructure, the values of accidental risk are becoming relevant points for discussion. However, the challenge is the reliability of the models employed to get the risk data. Such models usually involve large number of variables and with large amounts of uncertainty. The most efficient techniques to overcome those problems are built using Artificial Intelligence (AI), and more specifically using hybrid systems such as Neuro-Fuzzy algorithms. Therefore, this paper aims to introduce a hybrid algorithm for risk assessment trained using near-miss accident data. As mentioned above the sustainability of traditional technologies related with energy and chemical infrastructure constitutes one of the major challenges that today’s societies and firms are facing. Besides that, the adaptation of those technologies to the effects of the climate change in sensible environments represents a critical concern for safety and risk management. Regarding this issue argue that social consequences of catastrophic risks are increasing rapidly, due mainly to the concentration of people and energy infrastructure in hazard-prone areas, aggravated by the lack of knowledge about the risks. Additional to the social consequences described above, and considering the industrial sector as critical infrastructure due to its large impact to the economy in case of a failure the relevance of industrial safety has become a critical issue for the current society. Then, regarding the safety concern, pipeline operators and regulators have been performing risk assessments in attempts to evaluate accurately probabilities of failure of the infrastructure, and consequences associated with those failures. However, estimating accidental risks in critical infrastructure involves a substantial effort and costs due to number of variables involved, complexity and lack of information. Therefore, this paper aims to introduce a well trained algorithm for risk assessment using deep learning, which could be capable to deal efficiently with the complexity and uncertainty. The advantage point of the deep learning using near-miss accidents data is that it could be employed in risk assessment as an efficient engineering tool to treat the uncertainty of the risk values in complex environments. The basic idea of using a Near-Miss Deep Learning Approach for Neuro-Fuzzy Risk Assessment in Pipelines is focused in the objective of improve the validity of the risk values learning from near-miss accidents and imitating the human expertise scoring risks and setting tolerance levels. In summary, the method of Deep Learning for Neuro-Fuzzy Risk Assessment involves a regression analysis called group method of data handling (GMDH), which consists in the determination of the optimal configuration of the risk assessment model and its parameters employing polynomial theory.

Keywords: deep learning, risk assessment, neuro fuzzy, pipelines

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Authors: Kai Warsoenke, Maik Mackiewicz

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To achieve a high quality of assembled car body structures, tolerancing is used to ensure a geometric accuracy of the single car body parts. There are two main techniques to determine the required tolerances. The first is tolerance analysis which describes the influence of individually tolerated input values on a required target value. Second is tolerance synthesis to determine the location of individual tolerances to achieve a target value. Both techniques are based on classical statistical methods, which assume certain probability distributions. To ensure competitiveness in both saturated and dynamic markets, production processes in vehicle manufacturing must be flexible and efficient. The dimensional specifications selected for the individual body components and the resulting assemblies have a major influence of the quality of the process. For example, in the manufacturing of forming tools as operating equipment or in the higher level of car body assembly. As part of the metrological process monitoring, manufactured individual parts and assemblies are recorded and the measurement results are stored in databases. They serve as information for the temporary adjustment of the production processes and are interpreted by experts in order to derive suitable adjustments measures. In the production of forming tools, this means that time-consuming and costly changes of the tool surface have to be made, while in the body shop, uncertainties that are difficult to control result in cost-intensive rework. The stored measurement results are not used to intelligently design tolerances in future processes or to support temporary decisions based on real-world geometric data. They offer potential to extend the tolerancing methods through data analysis and machine learning models. The purpose of this paper is to examine real-world measurement data from individual car body components, as well as assemblies, in order to develop an approach for using the data in short-term actions and future projects. For this reason, the measurement data will be analyzed descriptively in the first step in order to characterize their behavior and to determine possible correlations. In the following, a database is created that is suitable for developing machine learning models. The objective is to create an intelligent way to determine the position and number of measurement points as well as the local tolerance range. For this a number of different model types are compared and evaluated. The models with the best result are used to optimize equally distributed measuring points on unknown car body part geometries and to assign tolerance ranges to them. The current results of this investigation are still in progress. However, there are areas of the car body parts which behave more sensitively compared to the overall part and indicate that intelligent tolerancing is useful here in order to design and control preceding and succeeding processes more efficiently.

Keywords: automotive production, machine learning, process optimization, smart tolerancing

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Authors: Maria Angela Bedini, Fabio Bronzini

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The Italian experiences, positive and negative, of the post-earthquake are conditioned by long times and structural bureaucratic constraints, also motivated by the attempt to contain mafia infiltration and corruption. The transition from the operational phase of the emergency to the planning phase of the reconstruction project is thus hampered by a series of inefficiencies and delays, incompatible with the need for rapid recovery of the territories in crisis. In fact, intervening in areas affected by seismic events means at the same time associating the reconstruction plan with an urban and territorial rehabilitation project based on strategies and tools in which prevention and safety play a leading role in the regeneration of territories in crisis and the return of the population. On the contrary, the earthquakes that took place in Italy have instead further deprived the territories affected of the minimum requirements for habitability, in terms of accessibility and services, accentuating the depopulation process, already underway before the earthquake. The objective of this work is to address with implementing and programmatic tools the procedures and strategies to be put in place, today and in the future, in Italy and abroad, to face the challenge of the reconstruction of activities, sociality, services, risk mitigation: a protocol of operational intentions and firm points, open to a continuous updating and implementation. The methodology followed is that of the comparison in a synthetic form between the different Italian experiences of the post-earthquake, based on facts and not on intentions, to highlight elements of excellence or, on the contrary, damage. The main results obtained can be summarized in technical comparison cards on good and bad practices. With this comparison, we intend to make a concrete contribution to the reconstruction process, certainly not only related to the reconstruction of buildings but privileging the primary social and economic needs. In this context, the recent instrument applied in Italy of the strategic urban and territorial SUM (Minimal Urban Structure) and the strategic monitoring process become dynamic tools for supporting reconstruction. The conclusions establish, by points, a protocol of interventions, the priorities for integrated socio-economic strategies, multisectoral and multicultural, and highlight the innovative aspects of 'inversion' of priorities in the reconstruction process, favoring the take-off of 'accelerator' interventions social and economic and a more updated system of coexistence with risks. In this perspective, reconstruction as a necessary response to the calamitous event can and must become a unique opportunity to raise the level of protection from risks and rehabilitation and development of the most fragile places in Italy and abroad.

Keywords: an operational protocol for reconstruction, operational priorities for coexistence with seismic risk, social and economic interventions accelerators of building reconstruction, the difficult post-earthquake reconstruction in Italy

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Authors: Ignitia Motjolopane

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Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) play an important role in economies by contributing to economic growth and employment. In the fourth industrial revolution, the convergence of technologies and the changing nature of work created pressures on economies globally. Generative artificial intelligence (AI) may support SMEs in exploring, exploiting, and transforming business models to align with their growth aspirations. SMEs' growth aspirations fall into four categories: subsistence, income, growth, and speculative. Subsistence-oriented firms focus on meeting basic financial obligations and show less motivation for business model innovation. SMEs focused on income, growth, and speculation are more likely to pursue business model innovation to support growth strategies. SMEs' strategic goals link to distinct business model innovation paths depending on whether SMEs are starting a new business, pursuing growth, or seeking profitability. Integrating generative artificial intelligence in start-up SME business model innovation enhances value creation, user-oriented innovation, and SMEs' ability to adapt to dynamic changes in the business environment. The existing literature may lack comprehensive frameworks and guidelines for effectively integrating generative AI in start-up reiterative business model innovation paths. This paper examines start-up business model innovation path with generative artificial intelligence. A theoretical approach is used to examine start-up-focused SME reiterative business model innovation path with generative AI. Articulating how generative AI may be used to support SMEs to systematically and cyclically build the business model covering most or all business model components and analyse and test the BM's viability throughout the process. As such, the paper explores generative AI usage in market exploration. Moreover, market exploration poses unique challenges for start-ups compared to established companies due to a lack of extensive customer data, sales history, and market knowledge. Furthermore, the paper examines the use of generative AI in developing and testing viable value propositions and business models. In addition, the paper looks into identifying and selecting partners with generative AI support. Selecting the right partners is crucial for start-ups and may significantly impact success. The paper will examine generative AI usage in choosing the right information technology, funding process, revenue model determination, and stress testing business models. Stress testing business models validate strong and weak points by applying scenarios and evaluating the robustness of individual business model components and the interrelation between components. Thus, the stress testing business model may address these uncertainties, as misalignment between an organisation and its environment has been recognised as the leading cause of company failure. Generative AI may be used to generate business model stress-testing scenarios. The paper is expected to make a theoretical and practical contribution to theory and approaches in crafting a robust business model innovation path with generative artificial intelligence in start-up SMEs.

Keywords: business models, innovation, generative AI, small medium enterprises

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Authors: Mohammadamin Hashemi, Mohammadreza Kashizadeh

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Droughts pose a significant threat to sustainable water resource management, agriculture, and socioeconomic sectors, particularly in the field of climate change. This study investigates drought simulation using rainfall-runoff modelling in the Cuneo district, Italy, over the past 60-year period. The study leverages the TUW model, a lumped conceptual rainfall-runoff model with a semi-distributed operation capability. Similar in structure to the widely used Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) model, the TUW model operates on daily timesteps for input and output data specific to each catchment. It incorporates essential routines for snow accumulation and melting, soil moisture storage, and streamflow generation. Multiple catchments' discharge data within the Cuneo district form the basis for thorough model calibration employing the Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) metric. A crucial metric for reliable drought analysis is one that can accurately represent low-flow events during drought periods. This ensures that the model provides a realistic picture of water availability during these critical times. Subsequent validation of monthly discharge simulations thoroughly evaluates overall model performance. Beyond model development, the investigation delves into drought analysis using the robust Standardized Runoff Index (SRI). This index allows for precise characterization of drought occurrences within the study area. A meticulous comparison of observed and simulated discharge data is conducted, with particular focus on low-flow events that characterize droughts. Additionally, the study explores the complex interplay between land characteristics (e.g., soil type, vegetation cover) and climate variables (e.g., precipitation, temperature) that influence the severity and duration of hydrological droughts. The study's findings demonstrate successful calibration of the TUW model across most catchments, achieving commendable model efficiency. Comparative analysis between simulated and observed discharge data reveals significant agreement, especially during critical low-flow periods. This agreement is further supported by the Pareto coefficient, a statistical measure of goodness-of-fit. The drought analysis provides critical insights into the duration, intensity, and severity of drought events within the Cuneo district. This newfound understanding of spatial and temporal drought dynamics offers valuable information for water resource management strategies and drought mitigation efforts. This research deepens our understanding of drought dynamics in the Cuneo region. Future research directions include refining hydrological modelling techniques and exploring future drought projections under various climate change scenarios.

Keywords: hydrologic extremes, hydrological drought, hydrological modelling, machine learning, rainfall-runoff modelling

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Authors: Maturos Chongchaikit, Sitthikorn Sumalee, Nopphawan Chimroylarp, Nongluck Manowaluilou, Thapanee Thammetha

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The 2015 Kasetsart University Research Plan, which was funded by the National Research Institutes: TRF – NRCT, comprises four sub-research projects on the development of three OER websites and on their usage study by students in international programs. The goals were to develop the open educational resources (OER) in the form of websites that will promote three key skills of quality learning and achievement: Academic English, Educational Research, and ICT Literacy, to graduate students in international programs of Thailand. The statistics from the Office of Higher Education showed that the number of foreign students who come to study in international higher education of Thailand has increased respectively by 25 percent per year, proving that the international education system and institutes of Thailand have been already recognized regionally and globally as meeting the standards. The output of the plan: the OER websites and their materials, and the outcome: students’ learning improvement due to lecturers’ readiness for open educational media, will ultimately lead the country to higher business capabilities for international education services in ASEAN Community in the future. The OER innovation is aimed at sharing quality knowledge to the world, with the adoption of Creative Commons Licenses that makes sharing be able to do freely (5Rs openness), without charge and leading to self and life-long learning. The research has brought the problems on the low usage of existing OER in the English language to develop the OER on three specific skills and try them out with the sample of 100 students randomly selected from the international graduate programs of top 10 Thai universities, according to QS Asia University Rankings 2014. The R&D process was used for product evaluation in 2 stages: the development stage and the usage study stage. The research tools were the questionnaires for content and OER experts, the questionnaires for the sample group and the open-ended interviews for the focus group discussions. The data were analyzed using frequency, percentage, mean and SD. The findings revealed that the developed websites were fully qualified as OERs by the experts. The students’ opinions and satisfaction were at the highest levels for both the content and the technology used for presentation. The usage manual and self-assessment guide were finalized during the focus group discussions. The direct participation according to the concept of 5Rs Openness Activities through the provided tools of OER models like MERLOT and OER COMMONS, as well as the development of usage manual and self-assessment guide, were revealed as a key approach to further extend the output widely and sustainably to the network of users in various higher education institutions.

Keywords: open educational resources, international education services business, academic English, educational research, ICT literacy, international graduate program, OER

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Authors: Julia Gontar, Natalia Buderatskaya, Igor Ilyin, Olga Parnitskaya, Sergey Lavrynenko, Eduard Kapustin, Ekaterina Ilyina, Yana Lakhno

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Introduction: It is well known that oocytes obtained from older reproductive women have accumulated mitochondrial DNA mutations, which negatively affects the morphology of a developing embryo and may lead to the birth of a child with mitochondrial disease. Special techniques have been developed to allow a donor oocyte cytoplasmic transfer with the parents’ biological nuclear DNA retention. At the same time, it is important to understand whether the procedure affects the future embryonic chromosome sets as the nuclear DNA is the transfer subject in this new complex procedure. Material and Methods: From July 2015 to July 2016, the investigation was carried out in the Medical Centre IGR. 34 donor oocytes (group A) were used for the manipulation with the aim of donating cytoplasm: 21 oocytes were used for zygotes pronuclear transfer and oocytes 13 – for the spindle transfer. The mean age of the oocyte donors was 28.4±2.9 years. The procedure was performed using Nikon Ti Eclipse inverted microscope equipped with the micromanipulators Narishige system (Japan), Saturn 3 laser console (UK), Oosight imaging systems (USA). For the preimplantation genetic screening (PGS) blastocyst biopsy was performed, trophectoderm samples were diagnosed using fluorescent in situ hybridization on chromosomes 9, 13, 15, 16, 17, 18, 21, 22, X, Y. For comparison of morphological characteristics and euploidy, was chosen a group of embryos (group B) with the amount of 121 blastocysts obtained from 213 oocytes, which were gotten from the donor programs of assisted reproductive technologies (ART). Group B was not subjected to donor oocyte cytoplasmic transfer procedure and studied on the above mentioned chromosomes. Statistical analysis was carried out using the criteria t, x^2 at a significance levels p<0.05, p<0.01, p<0.001. Results: After the donor cytoplasm transfer process the amount of the third day developing embryos was 27 (79.4%). In this stage, the group B consisted of 189 (88.7%) developing embryos, and there was no statistically significant difference (SSD) between the two groups (p>0.05). After a comparative analysis of the morphological characteristics of the embryos on the fifth day, we also found no SSD among the studied groups (p>0.05): from 34 oocytes exposed to manipulation, 14 (41.2%) blastocysts was obtained, while the group B blastocyst yield was 56.8% (n=121) from 213 oocytes. The following results were obtained after PGS performing: in group A euploidy in studied chromosomes were 28.6%(n=4) blastocysts, whereas in group B this rate was 40.5%(n=49), 28.6%(n=4) and 21.5%(n=26) of mosaic embryos and 42.8%(n=6) and 38.0%(n=46) aneuploid blastocysts respectively were identified. None of these specified parameters had an SSD (p>0.05). But attention was drawn by the blastocysts in group A with identified mosaicism, which was chaotic without any cell having euploid chromosomal set, in contrast to the mosaic embryos in group B where identified chaotic mosaicism was only 2.5%(n=3). Conclusions: According to the obtained results, there is no direct procedural effect on the chromosome in embryos obtained following donor oocyte cytoplasmic transfer. Thus, the technology introduction will enhance the infertility treating effectiveness as well as avoiding having a child with mitochondrial disease.

Keywords: donor oocyte cytoplasmic transfer, embryos’ chromosome set, oocyte spindle transfer, pronuclear transfer

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Authors: Reeden Bicomong

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Ecotourism activities, though geared towards conservation efforts, still put pressures against the natural state of the environment. Influx of visitors that goes beyond carrying capacity of the ecotourism site, the wastes generated, greenhouse gas emissions, are just few of the potential negative impacts of a not well-managed ecotourism activities. According to Girard and Nocca (2017) tourism produces many negative impacts because it is configured according to the model of linear economy, operating on a linear model of take, make and dispose (Ellen MacArthur Foundation 2015). With the influx of tourists in an ecotourism area, more wastes are generated, and if unregulated, natural state of the environment will be at risk. It is in this light that a study on waste analysis and classification study in five different ecotourism sites of Samal Island, Philippines was conducted. The major objective of the study was to analyze the amount and content of wastes generated from ecotourism sites in Samal Island, Philippines and make recommendations based on the circular economy perspective. Five ecotourism sites in Samal Island, Philippines was identified such as Hagimit Falls, Sanipaan Vanishing Shoal, Taklobo Giant Clams, Monfort Bat Cave, and Tagbaobo Community Based Ecotourism. Ocular inspection of each ecotourism site was conducted. Likewise, key informant interview of ecotourism operators and staff was done. Wastes generated from these ecotourism sites were analyzed and characterized to come up with recommendations that are based on the concept of circular economy. Wastes generated were classified into biodegradables, recyclables, residuals and special wastes. Regression analysis was conducted to determine if increase in number of visitors would equate to increase in the amount of wastes generated. Ocular inspection indicated that all of the five ecotourism sites have their own system of waste collection. All of the sites inspected were found to be conducting waste separation at source since there are different types of garbage bins for all of the four classification of wastes such as biodegradables, recyclables, residuals and special wastes. Furthermore, all five ecotourism sites practice composting of biodegradable wastes and recycling of recyclables. Therefore, only residuals are being collected by the municipal waste collectors. Key informant interview revealed that all five ecotourism sites offer mostly nature based activities such as swimming, diving, site seeing, bat watching, rice farming experiences and community living. Among the five ecotourism sites, Sanipaan Vanishing Shoal has the highest average number of visitors in a weekly basis. At the same time, in the wastes assessment study conducted, Sanipaan has the highest amount of wastes generated. Further results of wastes analysis revealed that biodegradables constitute majority of the wastes generated in all of the five selected ecotourism sites. Meanwhile, special wastes proved to be the least generated as there was no amount of this type was observed during the three consecutive weeks WACS was conducted.

Keywords: Circular economy, ecotourism, sustainable development, WACS

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Authors: Katharina Lapin, Debashis Sanyal

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Worldwide urban areas are growing. Urbanization has a great impact on social and economic development and ecosystem services. This global trend of urbanization also has significant impact on habitat and biodiversity. The impact of urbanization on the biodiversity of cities in Europe and North America is well studied, while there is a lack of data from cities in currently fast growing urban areas. Indian cities are expanding. The scientific community and the governmental authorities are facing the ongoing urbanization process as an opportunity for the environment. This case study supports the evaluation of urban biodiversity of the city Raipur in the North-West of India. The aim of this study is to assess the overview of the environmental and ecological implications of urbanization. The collected data and analysis was used to discuss the challenges for the sustainable city development. Vascular plants were chosen as an appropriate indicator for the assessment of local biodiversity changes. On the one hand, the vegetation cover is sensible to anthropogenic influence, and in the other hand, the local species composition is comparable to changes at the regional and national scale, using the plant index of India. Further information of abiotic situation can be gathered with the determination of indicator species. In order to calculate the influence of urbanization on the native plant diversity, the Shannon diversity index H´ was chosen. The Pielou`s pooled quadrate method was used for estimating diversity when a random sample is not expected. It was used to calculate the Pilou´s index of evenness. The estimated species coverage was used for calculating the H´ and J. Pearson correlation was performed to test the relationship between urbanization pattern and plant diversity. Further, a SWOT analysis was used in for analyzing internal and external factors impinging on a decision making process. The city of Raipur (21.25°N 81.63°E) has a population of 1,010,087 inhabitants living in an urban area of 226km², in the district of the Indian state of Chhattisgarh. Within the last decade, the urban area of Raipur increased. The results show that various novel ecosystems exist in the urban area of Raipur. The high amount of native flora is mainly to find at the shore of urban lakes and along the river Karun. These areas of high Biodiversity Index are to protect as urban biodiversity hot spots. The governmental authorities are well informed about the environmental challenges for the sustainable development of the city. Together with the scientific community of the Technical University of Raipur many engineering solutions are discussed for implementation of the future. The case study helped to point out the importance environmental measures that support the ecosystem services of green infrastructure. The fast process of urbanization is difficult to control. Uncontrolled creation of urban housing leads to difficulties in unsustainable use of natural resources. This is the major threat for the urban biodiversity.

Keywords: India, novel ecosystems, plant diversity, urban ecology

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Authors: Jaci Mastrandrea

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Background: The National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) recommends that healthcare institutions have established processes for integrating palliative care (PC) into cancer treatment and that all cancer patients be screened for PC needs upon initial diagnosis as well as throughout the entire continuum of care (National Comprehensive Cancer Network, 2021). Early PC screening is directly correlated with improved patient outcomes. The Sky Lakes Cancer Treatment Center (SLCTC) is an institution that has access to PC services yet does not have protocols in place for identifying patients with palliative needs or a standardized referral process. The aim of this quality improvement project is to improve early access to PC services by establishing a standardized screening and referral process for outpatient oncology patients. Method: The sample population included all adult patients with an oncology diagnosis who presented to the SLCTC for treatment during the project timeline from March 15th, 2022, to April 29th, 2022. The “Palliative and Supportive Needs Assessment'' (PSNA) screening tool was developed from validated and evidence-based PC referral criteria. The tool was initially implemented using paper forms and later was integrated into the Epic-Beacon EHR system. Patients were screened by registered nurses on the SLCTC treatment team. Nurses responsible for screening patients received an educational inservice prior to implementation. Patients with a PSNA score of three or higher were considered to be a positive screen. Scores of five or higher triggered a PC referral order in the patient’s EHR for the oncologist to review and approve. All patients with a positive screen received an educational handout on the topic of PC, and the EHR was flagged for follow-up. Results: Prior to implementation of the PSCNA screening tool, the SLCTC had zero referrals to PC in the past year, excluding referrals to hospice. Data was collected from the first 100 patient screenings completed within the eight-week data collection period. Seventy-three percent of patients met criteria for PC referral with a score greater than or equal to three. Of those patients who met referral criteria, 53.4% (39 patients) were referred for a palliative and supportive care consultation. Patients that were not referred to PC upon meeting the criteria were flagged in the EHR for re-screening within one to three months. Patients with lung cancer, chronic hematologic malignancies, breast cancer, and gastrointestinal malignancy most frequently met criteria for PC referral and scored highest overall on the scale of 0-12. Conclusion: The implementation of a standardized PC screening tool at the SLCTC significantly increased awareness of PC needs among cancer patients in the outpatient setting. Additionally, data derived from this quality improvement project supports the national recommendation for PC to be an integral component of cancer treatment across the entire continuum of care.

Keywords: oncology, palliative care, symptom management, symptom screening, ambulatory oncology, cancer, supportive care

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