Search results for: Bayes' decision
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3947

Search results for: Bayes' decision

1457 A Multi-Objective Programming Model to Supplier Selection and Order Allocation Problem in Stochastic Environment

Authors: Rouhallah Bagheri, Morteza Mahmoudi, Hadi Moheb-Alizadeh

Abstract:

This paper aims at developing a multi-objective model for supplier selection and order allocation problem in stochastic environment, where purchasing cost, percentage of delivered items with delay and percentage of rejected items provided by each supplier are supposed to be stochastic parameters following any arbitrary probability distribution. In this regard, dependent chance programming is used which maximizes probability of the event that total purchasing cost, total delivered items with delay and total rejected items are less than or equal to pre-determined values given by decision maker. The abovementioned stochastic multi-objective programming problem is then transformed into a stochastic single objective programming problem using minimum deviation method. In the next step, the further problem is solved applying a genetic algorithm, which performs a simulation process in order to calculate the stochastic objective function as its fitness function. Finally, the impact of stochastic parameters on the given solution is examined via a sensitivity analysis exploiting coefficient of variation. The results show that whatever stochastic parameters have greater coefficients of variation, the value of the objective function in the stochastic single objective programming problem is deteriorated.

Keywords: supplier selection, order allocation, dependent chance programming, genetic algorithm

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1456 USA Commercial Pilots’ Views of Crew Resource Management, Social Desirability, and Safety Locus of Control

Authors: Stephen Vera, Tabitha Black, Charalambos Cleanthous, Ryan Sain

Abstract:

A gender comparison of USA commercial pilots’ demographics and views of CRM, social desirability and locus of control were surveyed. The Aviation safety locus of control (ASLOC) was used to measure external (ASLOC-E) or internal (ASLOC-I) aviation safety locus of control. The gender differences were explored using the ASLOC scores as a categorical variable. A differential comparison of crew resource management (CRM), based on the Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) guidelines was conducted. The results indicated that the proportion of female to male respondents matches the current ratio of USA commercial pilots. Moreover, there were no significant differences regarding overall education and the total number of communication classes one took. Regarding CRM issues, there were no significant differences on their views regarding the roles of the PIC, stress, time management, and managing a flight team. The females scored significantly lower on aeronautical decision making (ADM) and communications. There were no significant differences on either the Balanced Inventory of Desirable Responding (BIDR) impression management (IM) or self-deceptive enhancement (SDE). Although there were no overall significant differences on the ASLOC, the females did score higher on the internal subscale than did the males. An additional comparison of socially desirable responding indicates that all scores may be invalid, especially from the female respondents.

Keywords: social desirability, safety locus of control, crew resource management, commercial pilots

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1455 Corporate Social Responsibility and Competitiveness: An Empirical Research Applied to Food and Beverage Industry in Croatia

Authors: Mirjana Dragas, Marli Gonan Bozac, Morena Paulisic

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Corporate social responsibility (CSR) is a balance between strategic and financial goals of companies, as well as social needs. The integration of competitive strategy and CSR in food and beverage industry has allowed companies to find new sources of competitive advantage. The paper discusses the fact that socially responsible companies encourage co-operation with socially responsible suppliers in order to strengthen market competitiveness. In addition to the descriptive interpretation of the results obtained by a questionnaire, factor analysis was used, while principal components analysis was applied as a factor extraction method. The research results based on two multiple regression analyses show that: (1) selecting the CSR supplier explains a statistically significant part of the variance of the results on the scale of financial aspects of competitiveness (as much as 44.7% of the explained variance); and (2) selecting the CSR supplier is a significant predictor of non-financial aspects of competitiveness (explains 43.9% of the variance of the results on the scale of non-financial aspects of competitiveness). A successful competitive strategy must ultimately support the growth strategy. This implies an analytical approach to finding factors that influence competitiveness through socially sustainable solutions and satisfactory top management decisions.

Keywords: competitiveness, corporate social responsibility, food and beverage industry, supply chain decision making

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1454 Risk Assessment of Heavy Rainfall and Development of Damage Prediction Function for Gyeonggi-Do Province

Authors: Jongsung Kim, Daegun Han, Myungjin Lee, Soojun Kim, Hung Soo Kim

Abstract:

Recently, the frequency and magnitude of natural disasters are gradually increasing due to climate change. Especially in Korea, large-scale damage caused by heavy rainfall frequently occurs due to rapid urbanization. Therefore, this study proposed a Heavy rain Damage Risk Index (HDRI) using PSR (Pressure – State - Response) structure for heavy rain risk assessment. We constructed pressure index, state index, and response index for the risk assessment of each local government in Gyeonggi-do province, and the evaluation indices were determined by principal component analysis. The indices were standardized using the Z-score method then HDRIs were obtained for 31 local governments in the province. The HDRI is categorized into three classes, say, the safest class is 1st class. As the results, the local governments of the 1st class were 15, 2nd class 7, and 3rd class 9. From the study, we were able to identify the risk class due to the heavy rainfall for each local government. It will be useful to develop the heavy rainfall prediction function by risk class, and this was performed in this issue. Also, this risk class could be used for the decision making for efficient disaster management. Acknowledgements: This research was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT & Future Planning (2017R1A2B3005695).

Keywords: natural disaster, heavy rain risk assessment, HDRI, PSR

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1453 A Combined Approach Based on Artificial Intelligence and Computer Vision for Qualitative Grading of Rice Grains

Authors: Hemad Zareiforoush, Saeed Minaei, Ahmad Banakar, Mohammad Reza Alizadeh

Abstract:

The quality inspection of rice (Oryza sativa L.) during its various processing stages is very important. In this research, an artificial intelligence-based model coupled with computer vision techniques was developed as a decision support system for qualitative grading of rice grains. For conducting the experiments, first, 25 samples of rice grains with different levels of percentage of broken kernels (PBK) and degree of milling (DOM) were prepared and their qualitative grade was assessed by experienced experts. Then, the quality parameters of the same samples examined by experts were determined using a machine vision system. A grading model was developed based on fuzzy logic theory in MATLAB software for making a relationship between the qualitative characteristics of the product and its quality. Totally, 25 rules were used for qualitative grading based on AND operator and Mamdani inference system. The fuzzy inference system was consisted of two input linguistic variables namely, DOM and PBK, which were obtained by the machine vision system, and one output variable (quality of the product). The model output was finally defuzzified using Center of Maximum (COM) method. In order to evaluate the developed model, the output of the fuzzy system was compared with experts’ assessments. It was revealed that the developed model can estimate the qualitative grade of the product with an accuracy of 95.74%.

Keywords: machine vision, fuzzy logic, rice, quality

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1452 Experimental Investigation, Analysis and Optimization of Performance and Emission Characteristics of Composite Oil Methyl Esters at 160 bar, 180 bar and 200 bar Injection Pressures by Multifunctional Criteria Technique

Authors: Yogish Huchaiah, Chandrashekara Krishnappa

Abstract:

This study considers the optimization and validation of experimental results using Multi-Functional Criteria Technique (MFCT). MFCT is concerned with structuring and solving decision and planning problems involving multiple variables. Production of biodiesel from Composite Oil Methyl Esters (COME) of Jatropha and Pongamia oils, mixed in various proportions and Biodiesel thus obtained from two step transesterification process were tested for various Physico-Chemical properties and it has been ascertained that they were within limits proposed by ASTME. They were blended with Petrodiesel in various proportions. These Methyl Esters were blended with Petrodiesel in various proportions and coded. These blends were used as fuels in a computerized CI DI engine to investigate Performance and Emission characteristics. From the analysis of results, it was found that 180MEM4B20 blend had the maximum Performance and minimum Emissions. To validate the experimental results, MFCT was used. Characteristics such as Fuel Consumption (FC), Brake Power (BP), Brake Specific Fuel Consumption (BSFC), Brake Thermal Efficiency (BTE), Carbon dioxide (CO2), Carbon Monoxide (CO), Hydro Carbon (HC) and Nitrogen oxide (NOx) were considered as dependent variables. It was found from the application of this method that the optimized combination of Injection Pressure (IP), Mix and Blend is 178MEM4.2B24. Overall corresponding variation between optimization and experimental results was found to be 7.45%.

Keywords: COME, IP, MFCT, optimization, PI, PN, PV

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1451 Classification Framework of Production Planning and Scheduling Solutions from Supply Chain Management Perspective

Authors: Kwan Hee Han

Abstract:

In today’s business environments, frequent change of customer requirements is a tough challenge to manufacturing company. To cope with these challenges, a production planning and scheduling (PP&S) function might be established to provide accountability for both customer service and operational efficiency. Nowadays, many manufacturing firms have utilized PP&S software solutions to generate a realistic production plan and schedule to adapt to external changes efficiently. However, companies which consider the introduction of PP&S software solution, still have difficulties for selecting adequate solution to meet their specific needs. Since the task of PP&S is the one of major building blocks of SCM (Supply Chain Management) architecture, which deals with short term decision making in the production process of SCM, it is needed that the functionalities of PP&S should be analysed within the whole SCM process. The aim of this paper is to analyse the PP&S functionalities and its system architecture from the SCM perspective by using the criteria of level of planning hierarchy, major 4 SCM processes and problem-solving approaches, and finally propose a classification framework of PP&S solutions to facilitate the comparison among various commercial software solutions. By using proposed framework, several major PP&S solutions are classified and positioned according to their functional characteristics in this paper. By using this framework, practitioners who consider the introduction of computerized PP&S solutions in manufacturing firms can prepare evaluation and benchmarking sheets for selecting the most suitable solution with ease and in less time.

Keywords: production planning, production scheduling, supply chain management, the advanced planning system

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1450 Smart Web Services in the Web of Things

Authors: Sekkal Nawel

Abstract:

The Web of Things (WoT), integration of smart technologies from the Internet or network to Web architecture or application, is becoming more complex, larger, and dynamic. The WoT is associated with various elements such as sensors, devices, networks, protocols, data, functionalities, and architectures to perform services for stakeholders. These services operate in the context of the interaction of stakeholders and the WoT elements. Such context is becoming a key information source from which data are of various nature and uncertain, thus leading to complex situations. In this paper, we take interest in the development of intelligent Web services. The key ingredients of this “intelligent” notion are the context diversity, the necessity of a semantic representation to manage complex situations and the capacity to reason with uncertain data. In this perspective, we introduce a multi-layered architecture based on a generic intelligent Web service model dealing with various contexts, which proactively predict future situations and reactively respond to real-time situations in order to support decision-making. For semantic context data representation, we use PR-OWL, which is a probabilistic ontology based on Multi-Entity Bayesian Networks (MEBN). PR-OWL is flexible enough to represent complex, dynamic, and uncertain contexts, the key requirements of the development for the intelligent Web services. A case study was carried out using the proposed architecture for intelligent plant watering to show the role of proactive and reactive contextual reasoning in terms of WoT.

Keywords: smart web service, the web of things, context reasoning, proactive, reactive, multi-entity bayesian networks, PR-OWL

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1449 Comparative Studies of Distributed and Aggregated Energy Storage Configurations in Direct Current Microgrids

Authors: Frimpong Kyeremeh, Albert Y. Appiah, Ben B. K. Ayawli

Abstract:

Energy storage system (ESS) is an essential part of a microgrid (MG) because of its immense benefits to the economics and the stability of MG. For a direct current (DC) MG (DCMG) in which the generating units are mostly variable renewable energy generators, DC bus voltage fluctuation is inevitable; hence ESS is vital in managing the mismatch between load demand and generation. Besides, to accrue the maximum benefits of ESS in the microgrid, there is the need for proper sizing and location of the ESSs. In this paper, a performance comparison is made between two configurations of ESS; distributed battery energy storage system (D-BESS) and an aggregated (centralized) battery energy storage system (A-BESS), on the basis of stability and operational cost for a DCMG. The configuration consists of four households with rooftop PV panels and a wind turbine. The objective is to evaluate and analyze the technical efficiencies, cost effectiveness as well as controllability of each configuration. The MG is first modelled with MATLAB Simulink then, a mathematical model is used to determine the optimal size of the BESS that minimizes the total operational cost of the MG. The performance of the two configurations would be tested with simulations. The two configurations are expected to reduce DC bus voltage fluctuations, but in the cases of voltage stability and optimal cost, the best configuration performance will be determined at the end of the research. The work is in progress, and the result would help MG designers and operators to make the best decision on the use of BESS for DCMG configurations.

Keywords: aggregated energy storage system, DC bus voltage, DC microgrid, distributed battery energy storage, stability

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1448 Spatio-Temporal Pest Risk Analysis with ‘BioClass’

Authors: Vladimir A. Todiras

Abstract:

Spatio-temporal models provide new possibilities for real-time action in pest risk analysis. It should be noted that estimation of the possibility and probability of introduction of a pest and of its economic consequences involves many uncertainties. We present a new mapping technique that assesses pest invasion risk using online BioClass software. BioClass is a GIS tool designed to solve multiple-criteria classification and optimization problems based on fuzzy logic and level set methods. This research describes a method for predicting the potential establishment and spread of a plant pest into new areas using a case study: corn rootworm (Diabrotica spp.), tomato leaf miner (Tuta absoluta) and plum fruit moth (Grapholita funebrana). Our study demonstrated that in BioClass we can combine fuzzy logic and geographic information systems with knowledge of pest biology and environmental data to derive new information for decision making. Pests are sensitive to a warming climate, as temperature greatly affects their survival and reproductive rate and capacity. Changes have been observed in the distribution, frequency and severity of outbreaks of Helicoverpa armigera on tomato. BioClass has demonstrated to be a powerful tool for applying dynamic models and map the potential future distribution of a species, enable resource to make decisions about dangerous and invasive species management and control.

Keywords: classification, model, pest, risk

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1447 A Framework Factors Influencing Accounting Information Systems Adoption Success

Authors: Manirath Wongsim

Abstract:

AIS plays an important role in business management, strategic and can provide assistance in all phases of decision making. Thus, many organisations needs to be seen as well adopting AIS, which is critical to a company in order to organise, manage and operate process in all sections. In order to implement AIS successfully, it is important to understand the underlying factors that influence the AIS adoption. Therefore, this research intends to study this perspective of factors influence and impact on AIS adoption’s success. The model has been designed to illustrate factors influences in AIS adoption. It also attempts to identify the critical success factors that organisations should focus on, to ensure the adoption on accounting process. This framework will be developed from case studies by collecting qualitative and quantitative data. Case study and survey methodology were adopted for this research. Case studies in two Thai- organisations were carried out. The results of the two main case studies suggested 9 factors that may have impact on in AIS adoption. Survey instrument was developed based on the findings from case studies. Two large-scale surveys were sent to selected members of Thailand Accountant, and Thailand Computer Society to further develop and test the research framework. The top three critical factors for ensuring AIS adoption were: top management commitment, steering committees, and Technical capability of AIS personnel. That is, it is now clear which factors impact in AIS adoption, and which of those factors are critical success factors for ensuring AIS adoption successes

Keywords: accounting information system, accounting information systems adoption, and inflecting AIS adoption

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1446 Taking Learning beyond Kirkpatrick’s Levels: Applying Return on Investment Measurement in Training

Authors: Charles L. Sigmund, M. A. Aed, Lissa Graciela Rivera Picado

Abstract:

One critical component of the training development process is the evaluation of the impact and value of the program. Oftentimes, however, learning organizations bypass this phase either because they are unfamiliar with effective methods for measuring the success or effect of the training or because they believe the effort to be too time-consuming or cumbersome. As a result, most organizations that do conduct evaluation limit their scope to Kirkpatrick L1 (reaction) and L2 (learning), or at most carry through to L4 (results). In 2021 Microsoft made a strategic decision to assess the measurable and monetized impact for all training launches and designed a scalable and program-agnostic tool for providing full-scale L5 return on investment (ROI) estimates for each. In producing this measurement tool, the learning and development organization built a framework for making business prioritizations and resource allocations that is based on the projected ROI of a course. The analysis and measurement posed by this process use a combination of training data and operational metrics to calculate the effective net benefit derived from a given training effort. Business experts in the learning field generally consider a 10% ROI to be an outstanding demonstration of the value of a project. Initial findings from this work applied to a critical customer-facing program yielded an estimated ROI of more than 49%. This information directed the organization to make a more concerted and concentrated effort in this specific line of business and resulted in additional investment in the training methods and technologies being used.

Keywords: evaluation, measurement, return on investment, value

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1445 Efficacy and Safety of Uventa Metallic Stent for Malignant and Benign Ureteral Obstruction

Authors: Deok Hyun Han

Abstract:

Objective: To explore outcomes of UventaTM metallic ureteral stent between malignant and benign ureteral obstruction. Methods: We reviewed the medical records of 90 consecutive patients who underwent Uventa stent placement for benign or malignant ureteral obstruction from December 2009 to June 2013. We evaluated the clinical outcomes, complications, and reasons and results for unexpected stent removals. Results: The median follow-up was 10.7 (0.9 – 41) months. From a total of 125 ureter units, there were 24 units with benign obstructions and 101 units with malignant obstructions. Initial technical successes were achieved in all patients. The overall success rate was 70.8% with benign obstructions and 84.2% with malignant obstructions. The major reasons for treatment failure were stent migration (12.5%) in benign and tumor progression (11.9%) in malignant obstructions. The overall complication rate was similar between benign and malignant obstructions (58.3% and 42.6%), but severe complications, which are Clavien grade 3 or more, occurred in 41.7% of benign and 6.9% of malignant obstructions. The most common complications were stent migration (25.0%) in benign obstructions and persistent pain (14.9%) in malignant obstructions. The stent removal was done in 16 units; nine units that were removed by endoscopy and seven units were by open surgery. Conclusions: In malignant ureteral obstructions, the Uventa stent showed favorable outcomes with high success rate and acceptable complication rate. However, in benign ureteral obstructions, overall success rate and complication rate were less favorable. Malignant ureteral obstruction seems to be appropriate indication of Uventa stent placement. However, in chronic diffuse benign ureteral obstructions the decision of placement of Uventa stent has to be careful.

Keywords: cause, complication, ureteral obstruction, metal stent

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1444 The Issue of Affordability in Housing and Implications for the Regional Planning of Drainage Infrastructure: A Case of Affordability as Part of Inclusive Decision Making

Authors: Kwadwo Afari Gyan

Abstract:

Cities are growing at unprecedented levels. Meanwhile, governments in the Global South are already overwhelmed by this growth and are unable to provide infrastructure proactively as expected. As a result, urban residents resort to providing their own infrastructure, such as drainage systems, as part of self-built housing development. Their small-scale, incremental housing practices, which often represent the formation of dense and diverse housing types, styles, and ages, have been identified to affect the planning of drainage systems at the regional scale. Such developments reflect the varied, affordable responses as part of a collective effort to curb regional problems, specifically flooding in this case. However, while some are included in this collective action, others are excluded as they are unable to afford to be included. This phenomenon, in addition to the formation of new autonomous localities, has led to challenges in mitigating flooding and has affected resilience to climate change. Using a qualitative approach, this paper explores how the mismatch between housing development, which occurs at an individual scale, and drainage infrastructure, which is provided at a regional scale, affects a regional effort to mitigate flooding in Tema, Ghana. It seeks to explore and reveal a relationship between affordability and inclusiveness. It also explores how density and diversity influence public infrastructure provision and their connection with affordability.

Keywords: climate change, affordability, inclusivity, equity, contextualization, regionalism

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1443 A Dynamic Solution Approach for Heart Disease Prediction

Authors: Walid Moudani

Abstract:

The healthcare environment is generally perceived as being information rich yet knowledge poor. However, there is a lack of effective analysis tools to discover hidden relationships and trends in data. In fact, valuable knowledge can be discovered from application of data mining techniques in healthcare system. In this study, a proficient methodology for the extraction of significant patterns from the coronary heart disease warehouses for heart attack prediction, which unfortunately continues to be a leading cause of mortality in the whole world, has been presented. For this purpose, we propose to enumerate dynamically the optimal subsets of the reduced features of high interest by using rough sets technique associated to dynamic programming. Therefore, we propose to validate the classification using Random Forest (RF) decision tree to identify the risky heart disease cases. This work is based on a large amount of data collected from several clinical institutions based on the medical profile of patient. Moreover, the experts’ knowledge in this field has been taken into consideration in order to define the disease, its risk factors, and to establish significant knowledge relationships among the medical factors. A computer-aided system is developed for this purpose based on a population of 525 adults. The performance of the proposed model is analyzed and evaluated based on set of benchmark techniques applied in this classification problem.

Keywords: multi-classifier decisions tree, features reduction, dynamic programming, rough sets

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1442 Advanced Combinatorial Method for Solving Complex Fault Trees

Authors: José de Jesús Rivero Oliva, Jesús Salomón Llanes, Manuel Perdomo Ojeda, Antonio Torres Valle

Abstract:

Combinatorial explosion is a common problem to both predominant methods for solving fault trees: Minimal Cut Set (MCS) approach and Binary Decision Diagram (BDD). High memory consumption impedes the complete solution of very complex fault trees. Only approximated non-conservative solutions are possible in these cases using truncation or other simplification techniques. The paper proposes a method (CSolv+) for solving complex fault trees, without any possibility of combinatorial explosion. Each individual MCS is immediately discarded after its contribution to the basic events importance measures and the Top gate Upper Bound Probability (TUBP) has been accounted. An estimation of the Top gate Exact Probability (TEP) is also provided. Therefore, running in a computer cluster, CSolv+ will guarantee the complete solution of complex fault trees. It was successfully applied to 40 fault trees from the Aralia fault trees database, performing the evaluation of the top gate probability, the 1000 Significant MCSs (SMCS), and the Fussell-Vesely, RRW and RAW importance measures for all basic events. The high complexity fault tree nus9601 was solved with truncation probabilities from 10-²¹ to 10-²⁷ just to limit the execution time. The solution corresponding to 10-²⁷ evaluated 3.530.592.796 MCSs in 3 hours and 15 minutes.

Keywords: system reliability analysis, probabilistic risk assessment, fault tree analysis, basic events importance measures

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1441 Information Management Approach in the Prediction of Acute Appendicitis

Authors: Ahmad Shahin, Walid Moudani, Ali Bekraki

Abstract:

This research aims at presenting a predictive data mining model to handle an accurate diagnosis of acute appendicitis with patients for the purpose of maximizing the health service quality, minimizing morbidity/mortality, and reducing cost. However, acute appendicitis is the most common disease which requires timely accurate diagnosis and needs surgical intervention. Although the treatment of acute appendicitis is simple and straightforward, its diagnosis is still difficult because no single sign, symptom, laboratory or image examination accurately confirms the diagnosis of acute appendicitis in all cases. This contributes in increasing morbidity and negative appendectomy. In this study, the authors propose to generate an accurate model in prediction of patients with acute appendicitis which is based, firstly, on the segmentation technique associated to ABC algorithm to segment the patients; secondly, on applying fuzzy logic to process the massive volume of heterogeneous and noisy data (age, sex, fever, white blood cell, neutrophilia, CRP, urine, ultrasound, CT, appendectomy, etc.) in order to express knowledge and analyze the relationships among data in a comprehensive manner; and thirdly, on applying dynamic programming technique to reduce the number of data attributes. The proposed model is evaluated based on a set of benchmark techniques and even on a set of benchmark classification problems of osteoporosis, diabetes and heart obtained from the UCI data and other data sources.

Keywords: healthcare management, acute appendicitis, data mining, classification, decision tree

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1440 Organizational Culture and Organizational Performance of Adama Beverages Ltd, Adamawa State, Nigeria

Authors: Stephen Pembi, Samuel K. Msheliza, Helen A. Andow

Abstract:

Organizational culture is very important in the organization because it enhances organizational performance and serves as a sense of making and control mechanism that guides and shapes the attitude and behaviour of employees. However, organizational culture issues are frequently disregarded in lieu of activities that may or may not have a good impact on performance. This study examines the relationship between organizational culture and organizational performance of Adama Beverages Ltd, Adamawa State. The study employed an explanatory survey research design with a questionnaire as a source of data collection. One hundred and thirty-five copies of the questionnaire were administered using the convenience method of sampling, out of which one hundred and twenty were retrieved and well answered. The data collected were subjected to the Pearson product-moment correlation technique to test the hypotheses of the study using SPSS. The overall results signify that organizational culture has a significant positive relationship with organizational performance. The multiple regression results show that mission, adaptability, and involvement have a significant positive influence on organizational performance, while consistency has a significant negative influence on organizational performance. Therefore, this study concluded that organizational culture is a strong determinant of organizational performance in Adama Beverages Ltd, Adamawa State. The study recommends that the level of employee input into decision-making, flexibility in responding to changes in the business environment, consistency with values and traditions, and organizational performance should all be maintained by Adama Beverages Ltd.

Keywords: adaptability, consistency, involvement, mission, organizational performance

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1439 Data-Driven Performance Evaluation of Surgical Doctors Based on Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Processes

Authors: Yuguang Gao, Qiang Yang, Yanpeng Zhang, Mingtao Deng

Abstract:

To enhance the safety, quality and efficiency of healthcare services provided by surgical doctors, we propose a comprehensive approach to the performance evaluation of individual doctors by incorporating insights from performance data as well as views of different stakeholders in the hospital. Exploratory factor analysis was first performed on collective multidimensional performance data of surgical doctors, where key factors were extracted that encompass assessment of professional experience and service performance. A two-level indicator system was then constructed, for which we developed a weighted interval-valued spherical fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to analyze the relative importance of the indicators while handling subjectivity and disparity in the decision-making of multiple parties involved. Our analytical results reveal that, for the key factors identified as instrumental for evaluating surgical doctors’ performance, the overall importance of clinical workload and complexity of service are valued more than capacity of service and professional experience, while the efficiency of resource consumption ranks comparatively the lowest in importance. We also provide a retrospective case study to illustrate the effectiveness and robustness of our quantitative evaluation model by assigning meaningful performance ratings to individual doctors based on the weights developed through our approach.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy processes, factor analysis, fuzzy logic, performance evaluation

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1438 A Framework for University Social Responsibility and Sustainability: The Case of South Valley University, Egypt

Authors: Alaa Tag-Eldin Mohamed

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The environmental, cultural, social, and technological changes have led higher education institutes to question their traditional roles. Many declarations and frameworks highlight the importance of fulfilling social responsibility of higher education institutes. The study aims at developing a framework of university social responsibility and sustainability (USR&S) with focus on South Valley University (SVU) as a case study of Egyptian Universities. The study used meetings with 12 vice deans of community services and environmental affairs on social responsibility and environmental issues. The proposed framework integrates social responsibility with strategic management through the establishment and maintenance of the vision, mission, values, goals and management systems; elaboration of policies; provision of actions; evaluation of services and development of social collaboration with stakeholders to meet current and future needs of the community and environment. The framework links between different stakeholders internally and externally using communication and reporting tools. The results show that SVU integrates social responsibility and sustainability in its strategic plans. It has policies and actions however fragmented and lack of appropriate structure and budgeting. The proposed framework could be valuable for researchers and decision makers of the Egyptian Universities. The study proposed recommendations and highlighted building on the results and conducting future research.

Keywords: corporate social responsibility (CSR), south valley university, sustainable university, university social responsibility and sustainability (USR&S)

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1437 Endometrial Thickness Cut-Off for Evacuation of Retained Product of Conception

Authors: Nambiar Ritu, Ali Ban, Munawar Farida, Israell Imelda, T. Farouk Eman Rasheeda, Jangalgi Renuka, S. Boma Nellie

Abstract:

Aim: To define the ultrasonographic endometrial thickness (USG ET) cutoff for evacuation of retained pieces of conception (ERPC). Background: Studies of conservative management of 1st trimester miscarriage have questioned the need for post miscarriage curettage. Therapeutic decision making with transvaginal scan post miscarriage endometrial thickness in patients clinically thought to be incomplete miscarriage is often not clear. Method: Retrospective analysis of all 1ST trimester ERPC at Al Rahba Hospital from June 2012 to July 2013 was done. Total of 164 patients underwent ERPC. All cases were reviewed for pre-operative USG ET and post ERPC histopathological examination. TVS was done to evaluate the maximum ET of the uterine cavity along the long axis of the uterus and features of retained products was noted. All cases without preoperative USG ET measurement were excluded from the study, therefore only 62 out of 164 cases were included in the study. The patients were divided into three groups: o Group A: have retained products within endometrial cavity. o Group B: endometrial thickness equal or more than 20 mm. o Group C: endometrial thickness equal or less than 19.9 mm. o Post ERPC product was sent for HPE and the results were compared. Transvaginal sonographic findings can be used as a deciding factor in the management of patients with 1st trimester miscarriage who need ERPC. Our proposed cutoff in clinically stable patients requiring ERPC is more than 20 mm.

Keywords: ERPC, histopathological examination, long axis of the uterus, USG ET

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1436 A Goal-Oriented Approach for Supporting Input/Output Factor Determination in the Regulation of Brazilian Electricity Transmission

Authors: Bruno de Almeida Vilela, Heinz Ahn, Ana Lúcia Miranda Lopes, Marcelo Azevedo Costa

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Benchmarking public utilities such as transmission system operators (TSOs) is one of the main strategies employed by regulators in order to fix monopolistic companies’ revenues. Since 2007 the Brazilian regulator has been utilizing Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to benchmark TSOs. Despite the application of DEA to improve the transmission sector’s efficiency, some problems can be pointed out, such as the high price of electricity in Brazil; the limitation of the benchmarking only to operational expenses (OPEX); the absence of variables that represent the outcomes of the transmission service; and the presence of extremely low and high efficiencies. As an alternative to the current concept of benchmarking the Brazilian regulator uses, we propose a goal-oriented approach. Our proposal supports input/output selection by taking traditional organizational goals and measures as a basis for the selection of factors for benchmarking purposes. As the main advantage, it resolves the classical DEA problems of input/output selection, undesirable and dual-role factors. We also provide a demonstration of our goal-oriented concept regarding service quality. As a result, most TSOs’ efficiencies in Brazil might improve when considering quality as important in their efficiency estimation.

Keywords: decision making, goal-oriented benchmarking, input/output factor determination, TSO regulation

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1435 Optimisation of B2C Supply Chain Resource Allocation

Authors: Firdaous Zair, Zoubir Elfelsoufi, Mohammed Fourka

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The allocation of resources is an issue that is needed on the tactical and operational strategic plan. This work considers the allocation of resources in the case of pure players, manufacturers and Click & Mortars that have launched online sales. The aim is to improve the level of customer satisfaction and maintaining the benefits of e-retailer and of its cooperators and reducing costs and risks. Our contribution is a decision support system and tool for improving the allocation of resources in logistics chains e-commerce B2C context. We first modeled the B2C chain with all operations that integrates and possible scenarios since online retailers offer a wide selection of personalized service. The personalized services that online shopping companies offer to the clients can be embodied in many aspects, such as the customizations of payment, the distribution methods, and after-sales service choices. In addition, every aspect of customized service has several modes. At that time, we analyzed the optimization problems of supply chain resource allocation in customized online shopping service mode, which is different from the supply chain resource allocation under traditional manufacturing or service circumstances. Then we realized an optimization model and algorithm for the development based on the analysis of the allocation of the B2C supply chain resources. It is a multi-objective optimization that considers the collaboration of resources in operations, time and costs but also the risks and the quality of services as well as dynamic and uncertain characters related to the request.

Keywords: e-commerce, supply chain, B2C, optimisation, resource allocation

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1434 Exploring the Issue of Occult Hypoperfusion in the Pre-Hospital Setting

Authors: A. Fordham, A. Hudson

Abstract:

Background: Studies have suggested 16-25% of normotensive trauma patients with no clinical signs of shock have abnormal lactate and BD readings evidencing shock; a phenomenon known as occult hypoperfusion (OH). In light of the scarce quantity of evidence currently documenting OH, this study aimed to identify the prevalence of OH in the pre-hospital setting and explore ways to improve its identification and management. Methods: A quantitative retrospective data analysis was carried out on 75 sets of patient records for trauma patients treated by Kent Surrey Sussex Air Ambulance Trust between November 2013 and October 2014. The KSS HEMS notes and subsequent ED notes were collected. Trends between patients’ SBP on the scene, whether or not they received PRBCs on the scene as well as lactate and BD readings in the ED were assessed. Patients’ KSS HEMS notes written by the HEMS crew were also reviewed and recorded. Results: -Suspected OH was identified in 7% of the patients who did not receive PRBCs in the pre-hospital phase. -SBP heavily influences the physicians’ decision of whether or not to transfuse PRBCs in the pre-hospital phase. Preliminary conclusions: OH is an under-studied and underestimated phenomenon. We suggest a prospective trial is carried out to evaluate whether detecting trauma patients’ tissue perfusion status in the pre-hospital phase using portable devices capable of measuring serum BD and/or lactate could aid more accurate detection and management of all haemorrhaging trauma patients, including patients with OH.

Keywords: occult hypoperfusion, PRBC transfusion, point of care testing, pre-hospital emergency medicine, trauma

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1433 State Capacity and the Adoption of Restrictive Asylum Policies in Developing Countries

Authors: Duncan K. Espenshade

Abstract:

Scholars have established expectations regarding how the political and economic interests of a country's people and elites can influence its migration policies. Most of the scholarship exploring the adoption of migration policies focuses on the developed world, focusing on the cultural, political, and economic influences that drive restrictive policies in developed countries. However, despite the scholarly focus on migration policies in developed countries, most internationally displaced people reside in developing countries. Furthermore, while the political and economic factors that influence migration policy in developed countries are likely at play in developing states, developing states also face unique hurdles to policy formation not present in developed states. Namely, this article explores how state capacity, or in this context, a state's de facto ability to restrict or absorb migration inflows, influences the adoption of migration policies in developing countries. Using Cox-Proportional hazard models and recently introduced data on asylum policies in developing countries, this research finds that having a greater ability to restrict migration flows is associated with a reduced likelihood of adopting liberal asylum policies. Future extensions of this project will explore the adoption of asylum policies as a two-stage process, in which the available decision set of political actors is first constrained by a state's restrictive and absorptive capacity in the first stage, with the political, economic, and cultural factors influencing the policy adopted in the second stage.

Keywords: state capacity, international relations, foreign policy, migration

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1432 Upgrades for Hydric Supply in Water System Distribution: Use of the Bayesian Network and Technical Expedients

Authors: Elena Carcano, James Ball

Abstract:

This work details the strategies adopted by the Italian Water Utilities during the distribution of water in emergency conditions which glide from earthquakes and droughts to floods and fires. Several water bureaus located over the national territory have been interviewed, and the collected information has been used in a database of potential interventions to be taken. The work discusses the actions adopted by water utilities. These are generally prioritized in order to minimize the social, temporal, and economic burden that the damaged and nearby areas need to support. Actions are defined relying on the Bayesian Network Approach, which constitutes the hard core of any decision support system. The Bayesian Networks give answers to interventions to real and most likely risky cases. The added value of this research consists in supplying the National Bureau, namely Protezione Civile, in charge of managing havoc and catastrophic situations with a univocal plot outline so as to be able to handle actions uniformly at the expense of different local laws or contradictory customs which squander any recovery conditions, proper technical service, and economic aids. The paper is organized as follows: in section 1, the introduction is stated; section 2 provides a brief discussion of BNNs (Bayesian Networks), section 3 introduces the adopted methodology; and in the last sections, results are presented, and conclusions are drawn.

Keywords: hierarchical process, strategic plan, water emergency conditions, water supply

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1431 Land Use/Land Cover Mapping Using Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2 in a Mediterranean Landscape

Authors: Moschos Vogiatzis, K. Perakis

Abstract:

Spatial-explicit and up-to-date land use/land cover information is fundamental for spatial planning, land management, sustainable development, and sound decision-making. In the last decade, many satellite-derived land cover products at different spatial, spectral, and temporal resolutions have been developed, such as the European Copernicus Land Cover product. However, more efficient and detailed information for land use/land cover is required at the regional or local scale. A typical Mediterranean basin with a complex landscape comprised of various forest types, crops, artificial surfaces, and wetlands was selected to test and develop our approach. In this study, we investigate the improvement of Copernicus Land Cover product (CLC2018) using Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2 pixel-based classification based on all available existing geospatial data (Forest Maps, LPIS, Natura2000 habitats, cadastral parcels, etc.). We examined and compared the performance of the Random Forest classifier for land use/land cover mapping. In total, 10 land use/land cover categories were recognized in Landsat 8 and 11 in Sentinel-2A. A comparison of the overall classification accuracies for 2018 shows that Landsat 8 classification accuracy was slightly higher than Sentinel-2A (82,99% vs. 80,30%). We concluded that the main land use/land cover types of CLC2018, even within a heterogeneous area, can be successfully mapped and updated according to CLC nomenclature. Future research should be oriented toward integrating spatiotemporal information from seasonal bands and spectral indexes in the classification process.

Keywords: classification, land use/land cover, mapping, random forest

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1430 Gis Database Creation for Impacts of Domestic Wastewater Disposal on BIDA Town, Niger State Nigeria

Authors: Ejiobih Hyginus Chidozie

Abstract:

Geographic Information System (GIS) is a configuration of computer hardware and software specifically designed to effectively capture, store, update, manipulate, analyse and display and display all forms of spatially referenced information. GIS database is referred to as the heart of GIS. It has location data, attribute data and spatial relationship between the objects and their attributes. Sewage and wastewater management have assumed increased importance lately as a result of general concern expressed worldwide about the problems of pollution of the environment contamination of the atmosphere, rivers, lakes, oceans and ground water. In this research GIS database was created to study the impacts of domestic wastewater disposal methods on Bida town, Niger State as a model for investigating similar impacts on other cities in Nigeria. Results from GIS database are very useful to decision makers and researchers. Bida Town was subdivided into four regions, eight zones, and 24 sectors based on the prevailing natural morphology of the town. GIS receiver and structured questionnaire were used to collect information and attribute data from 240 households of the study area. Domestic wastewater samples were collected from twenty four sectors of the study area for laboratory analysis. ArcView 3.2a GIS software, was used to create the GIS databases for ecological, health and socioeconomic impacts of domestic wastewater disposal methods in Bida town.

Keywords: environment, GIS, pollution, software, wastewater

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1429 Employees and Their Perception of Soft Skills on Their Employability

Authors: Sukrita Mukherjee, Anindita Chaudhuri

Abstract:

Soft skills are a crucial aspect for employees, and these skills are not confined to any particular field rather, it guarantees further career growth and job opportunities for employees who are seeking growth. Soft skills are also regarded as personality-specific skills that are observable and are qualitative in nature, which determines an employee’s strengths as a leader. When an employee intends to hold his job, then the person must make effective use of his personal resources, that, in turn, impacts his employability in a positive manner. An employee at his workplace is expected to make effective use of his personal resources. The resources that are to be used by the employee are generally of two types. First type of resources are occupation related, which is related with the educational background of the employee, and the second type of resources are the psychological resources of the employee, such as self-knowledge, career orientation awareness, sense of purpose and emotional literacy, that are considered crucial for an employee in his workplace. The present study is a qualitative study which includes 10 individuals working in IT Sector and Service Industry, respectively. For IT sector, graduate people are considered, and for the Service Industry, individuals who have done a Professional course in order to get into the industry are considered. The emerging themes from the findings after thematic analysis reveal that different aspect of Soft skills such as communication, decision making, constant learning, keeping oneself updated with the latest technological advancement, emotional intelligence are some of the important factors that helps an employee not only to sustain his job, but also grow in his workplace.

Keywords: employabiliy, soft skils, employees, resources, workplace

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1428 Cosmetic Surgery on the Rise: The Impact of Remote Communication

Authors: Bruno Di Pace, Roxanne H. Padley

Abstract:

Aims: The recent increase in remote video interaction has increased the number of requests for teleconsultations with plastic surgeons in private practice (70% in the UK and 64% in the USA). This study investigated the motivations for such an increase and the underlying psychological impact on patients. Method: An anonymous web-based poll of 8 questions was designed and distributed to patients seeking cosmetic surgery through social networks in both Italy and the UK. The questions gathered responses regarding 1. Reasons for pursuing cosmetic surgery; 2. The effects of delays caused by the SARS-COV-2 pandemic; 3. The effects on mood; 4. The influence of video conferencing on body-image perception. Results: 85 respondents completed the online poll. Overall, 68% of respondents stated that seeing themselves more frequently online had influenced their decision to seek cosmetic surgery. The types of surgeries indicated were predominantly to the upper body and face (82%). Delays and access to surgeons during the pandemic were perceived as negatively impacting patients' moods (95%). Body-image perception and self-esteem were lower than in the pre-pandemic, particularly during lockdown (72%). Patients were more inclined to undergo cosmetic surgery during the pandemic, both due to the wish to improve their “lockdown face” for video conferencing (77%) and also due to the benefits of home recovery while in smart working (58%). Conclusions: Overall, findings suggest that video conferencing has led to a significant increase in requests for cosmetic surgery and the so-called “Zoom Boom” effect.

Keywords: cosmetic surgery, remote communication, telehealth, zoom boom

Procedia PDF Downloads 159