Search results for: modeling methodology
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 8708

Search results for: modeling methodology

8498 Performance Modeling and Availability Analysis of Yarn Dyeing System of a Textile Industry

Authors: P. C. Tewari, Rajiv Kumar, Dinesh Khanduja

Abstract:

This paper discusses the performance modeling and availability analysis of Yarn Dyeing System of a Textile Industry. The Textile Industry is a complex and repairable engineering system. Yarn Dyeing System of Textile Industry consists of five subsystems arranged in series configuration. For performance modeling and analysis of availability, a performance evaluating model has been developed with the help of mathematical formulation based on Markov-Birth-Death Process. The differential equations have been developed on the basis of Probabilistic Approach using a Transition Diagram. These equations have further been solved using normalizing condition in order to develop the steady state availability, a performance measure of the system concerned. The system performance has been further analyzed with the help of decision matrices. These matrices provide various availability levels for different combinations of failure and repair rates for various subsystems. The findings of this paper are, therefore, considered to be useful for the analysis of availability and determination of the best possible maintenance strategies which can be implemented in future to enhance the system performance.

Keywords: performance modeling, markov process, steady state availability, availability analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 315
8497 Dynamic Reroute Modeling for Emergency Evacuation: Case Study of Brunswick City, Germany

Authors: Yun-Pang Flötteröd, Jakob Erdmann

Abstract:

The human behaviors during evacuations are quite complex. One of the critical behaviors which affect the efficiency of evacuation is route choice. Therefore, the respective simulation modeling work needs to function properly. In this paper, Simulation of Urban Mobility’s (SUMO) current dynamic route modeling during evacuation, i.e. the rerouting functions, is examined with a real case study. The result consistency of the simulation and the reality is checked as well. Four influence factors (1) time to get information, (2) probability to cancel a trip, (3) probability to use navigation equipment, and (4) rerouting and information updating period are considered to analyze possible traffic impacts during the evacuation and to examine the rerouting functions in SUMO. Furthermore, some behavioral characters of the case study are analyzed with use of the corresponding detector data and applied in the simulation. The experiment results show that the dynamic route modeling in SUMO can deal with the proposed scenarios properly. Some issues and function needs related to route choice are discussed and further improvements are suggested.

Keywords: evacuation, microscopic traffic simulation, rerouting, SUMO

Procedia PDF Downloads 177
8496 A Simulation of Land Market through Agent-Based Modeling

Authors: Zilin Zhang

Abstract:

Agent-based simulation has become a popular method of exploring the behavior of all kinds of urban systems. The city clearly is viewed as such a system. Many urban evolution processes, such as the development or the transaction of a piece of land, can be modeled with a set of rules. Such modeling approaches can be used to gain insight into urban-development and land market transactions in the real world. Our work contributes to such type of research by modeling the transactions of lands in a city and its surrounding suburbs. By replicating the demand and supply needs in the land market, we are able to demonstrate the different transaction patterns in three types of residential areas - downtown, city-suburban, and further suburban areas. In addition, we are also able to compare the vital roles of different activation conditions play in generating the various transaction patterns of the land market at the macro level. We use this simulation to loosely test our hypotheses about the nature of activation regimes by the replication of the Zi traders’ model. In the end, we hope our analytical results can be useful for city planners and policymakers to develop rational city plans and policies for shaping sustainable urban development.

Keywords: simulation, agent-based modeling, housing market, city

Procedia PDF Downloads 70
8495 Financial Assessment of the Hard Coal Mining in the Chosen Region in the Czech Republic: Real Options Methodology Application

Authors: Miroslav Čulík, Petr Gurný

Abstract:

This paper is aimed at the financial assessment of the hard coal mining in a given region by real option methodology application. Hard coal mining in this mine makes net loss for the owner during the last years due to the long-term unfavourable mining conditions and significant drop in the coal prices during the last years. Management is going to shut down the operation and abandon the project to reduce the loss of the company. The goal is to assess whether the shutting down the operation is the only and correct solution of the problem. Due to the uncertainty in the future hard coal price evolution, the production might be again restarted if the price raises enough to cover the cost of the production. For the assessment, real option methodology is applied, which captures two important aspect of the financial decision-making: risk and flexibility. The paper is structured as follows: first, current state is described and problem is analysed. Next, methodology of real options is described. At last, project is evaluated by applying real option methodology. The results are commented and recommendations are provided.

Keywords: real option, investment, option to abandon, option to shut down and restart, risk, flexibility

Procedia PDF Downloads 531
8494 Developing a Total Quality Management Model Using Structural Equation Modeling for Indonesian Healthcare Industry

Authors: Jonny, T. Yuri M. Zagloel

Abstract:

This paper is made to present an Indonesian Healthcare model. Currently, there are nine TQM (Total Quality Management) practices in healthcare industry. However, these practices are not integrated yet. Therefore, this paper aims to integrate these practices as a model by using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). After administering about 210 questionnaires to various stakeholders of this industry, a LISREL program was used to evaluate the model's fitness. The result confirmed that the model is fit because the p-value was about 0.45 or above required 0.05. This has signified that previously mentioned of nine TQM practices are able to be integrated as an Indonesian healthcare model.

Keywords: healthcare, total quality management (TQM), structural equation modeling (SEM), linear structural relations (LISREL)

Procedia PDF Downloads 276
8493 Limits and Barriers of Value Creation and Projects Development: The Case of Tunisian SMEs

Authors: Samira Boussema, Ben Hamed Salah

Abstract:

Entrepreneurship was always considered to be the most appropriate remedy for various economies’ symptoms. It is presented as a complex process that faces several barriers thereby inhibiting a project’s implementation phase. In fact, after a careful review of the literature, we noticed that empirical researches on reasons behind non-developing entrepreneurial projects are very rare, suggesting a lack in modeling the process in general and the pre-start phase in particular. Therefore, in this study we try to identify the main environmental barriers to developing business projects in Tunisia through the study of a representative sample of undeveloped projects. To this end, we used a quantitative approach which allowed us to examine the various barriers encountered by young entrepreneurs during their projects’ implementation. Indeed, by modeling the phenomenon we found that these managers face barriers of legal, financial, educational and government support dimensions.

Keywords: entrepreneurship, environmental barriers, non-implementation of projects, structural modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 363
8492 Kirchhoff’s Depth Migration over Heterogeneous Velocity Models with Ray Tracing Modeling Approach

Authors: Alok Kumar Routa, Priya Ranjan Mohanty

Abstract:

Complex seismic signatures are generated due to the complexity of the subsurface which is difficult to interpret. In the present study, an attempt has been made to model the complex subsurface using the Ray tracing modeling technique. Add to this, for the imaging of these geological features, Kirchhoff’s prestack depth migration is applied over the synthetic common shot gather dataset. It is found that the Kirchhoff’s migration technique in addition with the Ray tracing modeling concept has the flexibility towards the imaging of various complex geology which gives satisfactory results with proper delineation of the reflectors at their respective true depth position. The entire work has been carried out under the MATLAB environment.

Keywords: Kirchhoff's migration, Prestack depth migration, Ray tracing modelling, velocity model

Procedia PDF Downloads 341
8491 The Assessment of Forest Wood Biomass Potential in Terms of Sustainable Development

Authors: Julija Konstantinavičienė, Vlada Vitunskienė

Abstract:

The role of sustainable biomass, including wood biomass, is becoming more important because of European Green Deal. The New EU Forest strategy is a flagship element of the European Green Deal and a key action on the EU biodiversity strategy for 2030. The first measure of this strategy is promoting sustainable forest management, including encouraging the sustainable use of wood-based resources. The first aim of this research was to develop and present a new approach to the concept of forest wood biomass potential in terms of sustainable development, distinguishing theoretical, technical and sustainable potential and detailing its constraints. The second aim was to prepare the methodology outline of sustainable forest wood biomass potential assessment and empirically check this methodology, considering economic, social and ecological constraints. The basic methodologies of the research: the review of research (with a combination of semi-systematic and integrative review methodologies), rapid assessment method and statistical data analysis. The developed methodology of assessment of forest wood potential in terms of sustainable development can be used in Lithuania and in other countries and will let us compare this potential a different time and spatial levels. The application of the methodology will be able to serve the development of new national strategies for the wood sector.

Keywords: assessment, constraints, forest wood biomass, methodology, potential, sustainability

Procedia PDF Downloads 106
8490 Requirement Analysis for Emergency Management Software

Authors: Tomáš Ludík, Jiří Barta, Sabina Chytilová, Josef Navrátil

Abstract:

Emergency management is a discipline of dealing with and avoiding risks. Appropriate emergency management software allows better management of these risks and has a direct influence on reducing potential negative impacts. Although there are several emergency management software products in the Czech Republic, they cover user requirements from the emergency management field only partially. Therefore, the paper focuses on the issues of requirement analysis within development of emergency management software. Analysis of the current state describes the basic features and properties of user requirements for software development as well as basic methods and approaches for gathering these requirements. Then, the paper presents more specific mechanisms for requirement analysis based on chosen software development approach: structured, object-oriented or agile. Based on these experiences it is designed new methodology for requirement analysis. Methodology describes how to map user requirements comprehensively in the field of emergency management and thus reduce misunderstanding between software analyst and emergency manager. Proposed methodology was consulted with department of fire brigade and also has been applied in the requirements analysis for their current emergency management software. The proposed methodology has general character and can be used also in other specific areas during requirement analysis.

Keywords: emergency software, methodology, requirement analysis, stakeholders, use case diagram, user stories

Procedia PDF Downloads 522
8489 Artificial Intelligence Approach to Water Treatment Processes: Case Study of Daspoort Treatment Plant, South Africa

Authors: Olumuyiwa Ojo, Masengo Ilunga

Abstract:

Artificial neural network (ANN) has broken the bounds of the convention programming, which is actually a function of garbage in garbage out by its ability to mimic the human brain. Its ability to adopt, adapt, adjust, evaluate, learn and recognize the relationship, behavior, and pattern of a series of data set administered to it, is tailored after the human reasoning and learning mechanism. Thus, the study aimed at modeling wastewater treatment process in order to accurately diagnose water control problems for effective treatment. For this study, a stage ANN model development and evaluation methodology were employed. The source data analysis stage involved a statistical analysis of the data used in modeling in the model development stage, candidate ANN architecture development and then evaluated using a historical data set. The model was developed using historical data obtained from Daspoort Wastewater Treatment plant South Africa. The resultant designed dimensions and model for wastewater treatment plant provided good results. Parameters considered were temperature, pH value, colour, turbidity, amount of solids and acidity. Others are total hardness, Ca hardness, Mg hardness, and chloride. This enables the ANN to handle and represent more complex problems that conventional programming is incapable of performing.

Keywords: ANN, artificial neural network, wastewater treatment, model, development

Procedia PDF Downloads 134
8488 A Clustering-Sequencing Approach to the Facility Layout Problem

Authors: Saeideh Salimpour, Sophie-Charlotte Viaux, Ahmed Azab, Mohammed Fazle Baki

Abstract:

The Facility Layout Problem (FLP) is key to the efficient and cost-effective operation of a system. This paper presents a hybrid heuristic- and mathematical-programming-based approach that divides the problem conceptually into those of clustering and sequencing. First, clusters of vertically aligned facilities are formed, which are later on sequenced horizontally. The developed methodology provides promising results in comparison to its counterparts in the literature by minimizing the inter-distances for facilities which have more interactions amongst each other and aims at placing the facilities with more interactions at the centroid of the shop.

Keywords: clustering-sequencing approach, mathematical modeling, optimization, unequal facility layout problem

Procedia PDF Downloads 314
8487 Discrete-Event Modeling and Simulation Methodologies: Past, Present and Future

Authors: Gabriel Wainer

Abstract:

Modeling and Simulation methods have been used to better analyze the behavior of complex physical systems, and it is now common to use simulation as a part of the scientific and technological discovery process. M&S advanced thanks to the improvements in computer technology, which, in many cases, resulted in the development of simulation software using ad-hoc techniques. Formal M&S appeared in order to try to improve the development task of very complex simulation systems. Some of these techniques proved to be successful in providing a sound base for the development of discrete-event simulation models, improving the ease of model definition and enhancing the application development tasks; reducing costs and favoring reuse. The DEVS formalism is one of these techniques, which proved to be successful in providing means for modeling while reducing development complexity and costs. DEVS model development is based on a sound theoretical framework. The independence of M&S tasks made possible to run DEVS models on different environments (personal computers, parallel computers, real-time equipment, and distributed simulators) and middleware. We will present a historical perspective of discrete-event M&S methodologies, showing different modeling techniques. We will introduce DEVS origins and general ideas, and compare it with some of these techniques. We will then show the current status of DEVS M&S, and we will discuss a technological perspective to solve current M&S problems (including real-time simulation, interoperability, and model-centered development techniques). We will show some examples of the current use of DEVS, including applications in different fields. We will finally show current open topics in the area, which include advanced methods for centralized, parallel or distributed simulation, the need for real-time modeling techniques, and our view in these fields.

Keywords: modeling and simulation, discrete-event simulation, hybrid systems modeling, parallel and distributed simulation

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8486 Structural Performance Evaluation of Segmented Wind Turbine Blade Through Finite Element Simulation

Authors: Chandrashekhar Bhat, Dilifa Jossley Noronha, Faber A. Saldana

Abstract:

Transportation of long turbine blades from one place to another is a difficult process. Hence a feasibility study of modularization of wind turbine blade was taken from structural standpoint through finite element analysis. Initially, a non-segmented blade is modeled and its structural behavior is evaluated to serve as reference. The resonant, static bending and fatigue tests are simulated in accordance with IEC61400-23 standard for comparison purpose. The non-segmented test blade is separated at suitable location based on trade off studies and the segments are joined with an innovative double strap bonded joint configuration. The adhesive joint is modeled by adopting cohesive zone modeling approach in ANSYS. The developed blade model is analyzed for its structural response through simulation. Performances of both the blades are found to be similar, which indicates that, efficient segmentation of the long blade is possible which facilitates easy transportation of the blades and on site reassembling. The location selected for segmentation and adopted joint configuration has resulted in an efficient segmented blade model which proves the methodology adopted for segmentation was quite effective. The developed segmented blade appears to be the viable alternative considering its structural response specifically in fatigue within considered assumptions.

Keywords: modularization, fatigue, cohesive zone modeling, wind turbine blade

Procedia PDF Downloads 428
8485 Simulation of Human Heart Activation Based on Diffusion Tensor Imaging

Authors: Ihab Elaff

Abstract:

Simulating the heart’s electrical stimulation is essential in modeling and evaluating the electrophysiology behavior of the heart. For achieving that, there are two structures in concern: the ventricles’ Myocardium, and the ventricles’ Conduction Network. Ventricles’ Myocardium has been modeled as anisotropic material from Diffusion Tensor Imaging (DTI) scan, and the Conduction Network has been extracted from DTI as a case-based structure based on the biological properties of the heart tissues and the working methodology of the Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) scanner. Results of the produced activation were much similar to real measurements of the reference model that was presented in the literature.

Keywords: diffusion tensor, DTI, heart, conduction network, excitation propagation

Procedia PDF Downloads 235
8484 Retrofitting Measures for Existing Housing Stock in Kazakhstan

Authors: S. Yessengabulov, A. Uyzbayeva

Abstract:

Residential buildings fund of Kazakhstan was built in the Soviet time about 35-60 years ago without considering energy efficiency measures. Currently, most of these buildings are in a rundown condition and fail to meet the minimum of hygienic, sanitary and comfortable living requirements. The paper aims to examine the reports of recent building energy survey activities in the country and provide a possible solution for retrofitting existing housing stock built before 1989 which could be applicable for building envelope in cold climate. Methodology also includes two-dimensional modeling of possible practical solutions and further recommendations.

Keywords: energy audit, energy efficient buildings in Kazakhstan, retrofit, two-dimensional conduction heat transfer analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 227
8483 Additive Manufacturing Optimization Via Integrated Taguchi-Gray Relation Methodology for Oil and Gas Component Fabrication

Authors: Meshal Alsaiari

Abstract:

Fused Deposition Modeling is one of the additive manufacturing technologies the industry is shifting to nowadays due to its simplicity and low affordable cost. The fabrication processing parameters predominantly influence FDM part strength and mechanical properties. This presentation will demonstrate the influences of the two manufacturing parameters on the tensile testing evaluation indexes, infill density, and Printing Orientation, which were analyzed to create a piping spacer suitable for oil and gas applications. The tensile specimens are made of two polymers, Acrylonitrile Styrene Acrylate (ASA) and High high-impact polystyrene (HIPS), to characterize the mechanical properties performance for creating the final product. The mechanical testing was carried out per the ASTM D638 testing standard, following Type IV requirements. Taguchi's experiment design using an L-9 orthogonal array was used to evaluate the performance output and identify the optimal manufacturing factors. The experimental results demonstrate that the tensile test is more pronounced with 100% infill for ASA and HIPS samples. However, the printing orientations varied in reactions; ASA is maximum at 0 degrees while HIPS shows almost similar percentages between 45 and 90 degrees. Taguchi-Gray integrated methodology was adopted to minimize the response and recognize optimal fabrication factors combinations.

Keywords: FDM, ASTM D638, tensile testing, acrylonitrile styrene acrylate

Procedia PDF Downloads 72
8482 Human Behavior Modeling in Video Surveillance of Conference Halls

Authors: Nour Charara, Hussein Charara, Omar Abou Khaled, Hani Abdallah, Elena Mugellini

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a human behavior modeling approach in videos scenes. This approach is used to model the normal behaviors in the conference halls. We exploited the Probabilistic Latent Semantic Analysis technique (PLSA), using the 'Bag-of-Terms' paradigm, as a tool for exploring video data to learn the model by grouping similar activities. Our term vocabulary consists of 3D spatio-temporal patch groups assigned by the direction of motion. Our video representation ensures the spatial information, the object trajectory, and the motion. The main importance of this approach is that it can be adapted to detect abnormal behaviors in order to ensure and enhance human security.

Keywords: activity modeling, clustering, PLSA, video representation

Procedia PDF Downloads 375
8481 Optimization of Wear during Dry Sliding Wear of AISI 1042 Steel Using Response Surface Methodology

Authors: Sukant Mehra, Parth Gupta, Varun Arora, Sarvoday Singh, Amit Kohli

Abstract:

The study was emphasised on dry sliding wear behavior of AISI 1042 steel. Dry sliding wear tests were performed using pin-on-disk apparatus under normal loads of 5, 7.5 and 10 kgf and at speeds 600, 750 and 900 rpm. Response surface methodology (RSM) was utilized for finding optimal values of process parameter and experiment was based on rotatable, central composite design (CCD). It was found that the wear followed linear pattern with the load and rpm. The obtained optimal process parameters have been predicted and verified by confirmation experiments.

Keywords: central composite design (CCD), optimization, response surface methodology (RSM), wear

Procedia PDF Downloads 559
8480 Integral Form Solutions of the Linearized Navier-Stokes Equations without Deviatoric Stress Tensor Term in the Forward Modeling for FWI

Authors: Anyeres N. Atehortua Jimenez, J. David Lambraño, Juan Carlos Muñoz

Abstract:

Navier-Stokes equations (NSE), which describe the dynamics of a fluid, have an important application on modeling waves used for data inversion techniques as full waveform inversion (FWI). In this work a linearized version of NSE and its variables, neglecting deviatoric terms of stress tensor, is presented. In order to get a theoretical modeling of pressure p(x,t) and wave velocity profile c(x,t), a wave equation of visco-acoustic medium (VAE) is written. A change of variables p(x,t)=q(x,t)h(ρ), is made on the equation for the VAE leading to a well known Klein-Gordon equation (KGE) describing waves propagating in variable density medium (ρ) with dispersive term α^2(x). KGE is reduced to a Poisson equation and solved by proposing a specific function for α^2(x) accounting for the energy dissipation and dispersion. Finally, an integral form solution is derived for p(x,t), c(x,t) and kinematics variables like particle velocity v(x,t), displacement u(x,t) and bulk modulus function k_b(x,t). Further, it is compared this visco-acoustic formulation with another form broadly used in the geophysics; it is argued that this formalism is more general and, given its integral form, it may offer several advantages from the modern parallel computing point of view. Applications to minimize the errors in modeling for FWI applied to oils resources in geophysics are discussed.

Keywords: Navier-Stokes equations, modeling, visco-acoustic, inversion FWI

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8479 Parameter Tuning of Complex Systems Modeled in Agent Based Modeling and Simulation

Authors: Rabia Korkmaz Tan, Şebnem Bora

Abstract:

The major problem encountered when modeling complex systems with agent-based modeling and simulation techniques is the existence of large parameter spaces. A complex system model cannot be expected to reflect the whole of the real system, but by specifying the most appropriate parameters, the actual system can be represented by the model under certain conditions. When the studies conducted in recent years were reviewed, it has been observed that there are few studies for parameter tuning problem in agent based simulations, and these studies have focused on tuning parameters of a single model. In this study, an approach of parameter tuning is proposed by using metaheuristic algorithms such as Genetic Algorithm (GA), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), Artificial Bee Colonies (ABC), Firefly (FA) algorithms. With this hybrid structured study, the parameter tuning problems of the models in the different fields were solved. The new approach offered was tested in two different models, and its achievements in different problems were compared. The simulations and the results reveal that this proposed study is better than the existing parameter tuning studies.

Keywords: parameter tuning, agent based modeling and simulation, metaheuristic algorithms, complex systems

Procedia PDF Downloads 208
8478 Defining Methodology for Multi Model Software Process Improvement Framework

Authors: Aedah Abd Rahman

Abstract:

Software organisations may implement single or multiple frameworks in order to remain competitive. There are wide selection of generic Software Process Improvement (SPI) frameworks, best practices and standards implemented with different focuses and goals. Issues and difficulties emerge in the SPI practices from the context of software development and IT Service Management (ITSM). This research looks into the integration of multiple frameworks from the perspective of software development and ITSM. The research question of this study is how to define steps of methodology to solve the multi model software process improvement problem. The objective of this study is to define the research approach and methodologies to produce a more integrated and efficient Multi Model Process Improvement (MMPI) solution. A multi-step methodology is used which contains the case study, framework mapping and Delphi study. The research outcome has proven the usefulness and appropriateness of the proposed framework in SPI and quality practice in Malaysian software industries. This mixed method research approach is used to tackle problems from every angle in the context of software development and services. This methodology is used to facilitate the implementation and management of multi model environment of SPI frameworks in multiple domains.

Keywords: Delphi study, methodology, multi model software process improvement, service management

Procedia PDF Downloads 245
8477 Understanding the Complexities of Consumer Financial Spinning

Authors: Olivier Mesly

Abstract:

This research presents a conceptual framework termed “Consumer Financial Spinning” (CFS) to analyze consumer behavior in the financial/economic markets. This phenomenon occurs when consumers of high-stakes financial products accumulate unsustainable debt, leading them to detach from their initial financial hierarchy of needs, wealth-related goals, and preferences regarding their household portfolio of assets. The daring actions of these consumers, forming a dark financial triangle, are characterized by three behaviors: overconfidence, the use of rationed rationality, and deceitfulness. We show that we can incorporate CFS into the traditional CAPM and Markovitz’ portfolio optimization models to create a framework that explains such market phenomena as the global financial crisis, highlighting the antecedents and consequences of ill-conceived speculation. Because this is a conceptual paper, there is no methodology with respect to ground studies. However, we apply modeling principles derived from the data percolation methodology, which contains tenets explicating how to structure concepts. A simulation test of the proposed framework is conducted; it demonstrates the conditions under which the relationship between expected returns and risk may deviate from linearity. The analysis and conceptual findings are particularly relevant both theoretically and pragmatically as they shed light on the psychological conditions that drive intense speculation, which can lead to market turmoil. Armed with such understanding, regulators are better equipped to propose solutions before the economic problems become out of control.

Keywords: consumer financial spinning, rationality, deceitfulness, overconfidence, CAPM

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8476 Analysis of Casting Call Process in Thai Film Industry

Authors: Panprae Bunyapukkna

Abstract:

The purpose of this research is to analyze the process that most of the Thai film industries commonly use in order to find the right cast to play the role. The result proved that most of the low-budget film productions find the cast by asking from the crew’s friends or friend of friend. Therefore, finding the cast in low-budget film productions normally has only few people shown up for the auditions and sometimes either none of them has acting knowledge or their appearances do not match the character. However, since most of the low-budget film productions do not have much ability to find members of the cast, thus some of them still will be selected. On the other hand, most of the high-budget film productions use modeling companies to find the cast for them. However, most of modeling agencies in Thailand seek and select their cast members from the cast’s appearances or talents rather than the knowledge of acting.

Keywords: casting for film, modeling business, acting, film, performing arts, film business

Procedia PDF Downloads 409
8475 Integrated Risk Assessment of Storm Surge and Climate Change for the Coastal Infrastructure

Authors: Sergey V. Vinogradov

Abstract:

Coastal communities are presently facing increased vulnerabilities due to rising sea levels and shifts in global climate patterns, a trend expected to escalate in the long run. To address the needs of government entities, the public sector, and private enterprises, there is an urgent need to thoroughly investigate, assess, and manage the present and projected risks associated with coastal flooding, including storm surges, sea level rise, and nuisance flooding. In response to these challenges, a practical approach to evaluating storm surge inundation risks has been developed. This methodology offers an integrated assessment of potential flood risk in targeted coastal areas. The physical modeling framework involves simulating synthetic storms and utilizing hydrodynamic models that align with projected future climate and ocean conditions. Both publicly available and site-specific data form the basis for a risk assessment methodology designed to translate inundation model outputs into statistically significant projections of expected financial and operational consequences. This integrated approach produces measurable indicators of impacts stemming from floods, encompassing economic and other dimensions. By establishing connections between the frequency of modeled flood events and their consequences across a spectrum of potential future climate conditions, our methodology generates probabilistic risk assessments. These assessments not only account for future uncertainty but also yield comparable metrics, such as expected annual losses for each inundation event. These metrics furnish stakeholders with a dependable dataset to guide strategic planning and inform investments in mitigation. Importantly, the model's adaptability ensures its relevance across diverse coastal environments, even in instances where site-specific data for analysis may be limited.

Keywords: climate, coastal, surge, risk

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8474 Modeling and Simulation of Textile Effluent Treatment Using Ultrafiltration Membrane Technology

Authors: Samia Rabet, Rachida Chemini, Gerhard Schäfer, Farid Aiouache

Abstract:

The textile industry generates large quantities of wastewater, which poses significant environmental problems due to its complex composition and high levels of pollutants loaded principally with heavy metals, large amounts of COD, and dye. Separation treatment methods are often known for their effectiveness in removing contaminants whereas membrane separation techniques are a promising process for the treatment of textile effluent due to their versatility, efficiency, and low energy requirements. This study focuses on the modeling and simulation of membrane separation technologies with a cross-flow filtration process for textile effluent treatment. It aims to explore the application of mathematical models and computational simulations using ASPEN Plus Software in the prediction of a complex and real effluent separation. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of modeling and simulation techniques in predicting pollutant removal efficiencies with a global deviation percentage of 1.83% between experimental and simulated results; membrane fouling behavior, and overall process performance (hydraulic resistance, membrane porosity) were also estimated and indicating that the membrane losses 10% of its efficiency after 40 min of working.

Keywords: membrane separation, ultrafiltration, textile effluent, modeling, simulation

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8473 Determining the City Development Based on the Modeling of the Pollutant Emission from Power Plant by Using AERMOD Software

Authors: Abbasi Fakhrossadat, Moharreri Mohammadamir, Shadmanmahani Mohammadjavad

Abstract:

The development of cities can be influenced by various factors, including air pollution. In this study, the focus is on the city of Mashhad, which has four large power plants operating. The emission of pollutants from these power plants can have a significant impact on the quality of life and health of the city's residents. Therefore, modeling and analyzing the emission pattern of pollutants can provide useful information for urban decision-makers and help in estimating the urban development model. The aim of this research is to determine the direction of city development based on the modeling of pollutant emissions (NOX, CO, and PM10) from power plants in Mashhad. By using the AERMOD software, the release of these pollutants will be modeled and analyzed.

Keywords: emission of air pollution, thermal power plant, urban development, AERMOD

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8472 A Novel Model for Saturation Velocity Region of Graphene Nanoribbon Transistor

Authors: Mohsen Khaledian, Razali Ismail, Mehdi Saeidmanesh, Mahdiar Hosseinghadiry

Abstract:

A semi-analytical model for impact ionization coefficient of graphene nanoribbon (GNR) is presented. The model is derived by calculating probability of electrons reaching ionization threshold energy Et and the distance traveled by electron gaining Et. In addition, ionization threshold energy is semi-analytically modeled for GNR. We justify our assumptions using analytic modeling and comparison with simulation results. Gaussian simulator together with analytical modeling is used in order to calculate ionization threshold energy and Kinetic Monte Carlo is employed to calculate ionization coefficient and verify the analytical results. Finally, the profile of ionization is presented using the proposed models and simulation and the results are compared with that of silicon.

Keywords: nanostructures, electronic transport, semiconductor modeling, systems engineering

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8471 Implications of Meteorological Parameters in Decision Making for Public Protective Actions during a Nuclear Emergency

Authors: M. Hussaina, K. Mahboobb, S. Z. Ilyasa, S. Shaheena

Abstract:

Plume dispersion modeling is a computational procedure to establish a relationship between emissions, meteorology, atmospheric concentrations, deposition and other factors. The emission characteristics (stack height, stack diameter, release velocity, heat contents, chemical and physical properties of the gases/particle released etc.), terrain (surface roughness, local topography, nearby buildings) and meteorology (wind speed, stability, mixing height, etc.) are required for the modeling of the plume dispersion and estimation of ground and air concentration. During the early phase of Fukushima accident, plume dispersion modeling and decisions were taken for the implementation of protective measures. A difference in estimated results and decisions made by different countries for taking protective actions created a concern in local and international community regarding the exact identification of the safe zone. The current study is focused to highlight the importance of accurate and exact weather data availability, scientific approach for decision making for taking urgent protective actions, compatible and harmonized approach for plume dispersion modeling during a nuclear emergency. As a case study, the influence of meteorological data on plume dispersion modeling and decision-making process has been performed.

Keywords: decision making process, radiation doses, nuclear emergency, meteorological implications

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8470 ARIMA-GARCH, A Statistical Modeling for Epileptic Seizure Prediction

Authors: Salman Mohamadi, Seyed Mohammad Ali Tayaranian Hosseini, Hamidreza Amindavar

Abstract:

In this paper, we provide a procedure to analyze and model EEG (electroencephalogram) signal as a time series using ARIMA-GARCH to predict an epileptic attack. The heteroskedasticity of EEG signal is examined through the ARCH or GARCH, (Autore- gressive conditional heteroskedasticity, Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity) test. The best ARIMA-GARCH model in AIC sense is utilized to measure the volatility of the EEG from epileptic canine subjects, to forecast the future values of EEG. ARIMA-only model can perform prediction, but the ARCH or GARCH model acting on the residuals of ARIMA attains a con- siderable improved forecast horizon. First, we estimate the best ARIMA model, then different orders of ARCH and GARCH modelings are surveyed to determine the best heteroskedastic model of the residuals of the mentioned ARIMA. Using the simulated conditional variance of selected ARCH or GARCH model, we suggest the procedure to predict the oncoming seizures. The results indicate that GARCH modeling determines the dynamic changes of variance well before the onset of seizure. It can be inferred that the prediction capability comes from the ability of the combined ARIMA-GARCH modeling to cover the heteroskedastic nature of EEG signal changes.

Keywords: epileptic seizure prediction , ARIMA, ARCH and GARCH modeling, heteroskedasticity, EEG

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8469 Screening Methodology for Seismic Risk Assessment of Aging Structures in Oil and Gas Plants

Authors: Mohammad Nazri Mustafa, Pedram Hatami Abdullah, M. Fakhrur Razi Ahmad Faizul

Abstract:

With the issuance of Malaysian National Annex 2017 as a part of MS EN 1998-1:2015, the seismic mapping of Malaysian Peninsular including Sabah and Sarawak has undergone some changes in terms of the Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) value. The revision to the PGA has raised a concern on the safety of oil and gas onshore structures as these structures were not designed to accommodate the new PGA values which are much higher than the previous values used in the original design. In view of the high numbers of structures and buildings to be re-assessed, a risk assessment methodology has been developed to prioritize and rank the assets in terms of their criticality against the new seismic loading. To-date such risk assessment method for oil and gas onshore structures is lacking, and it is the main intention of this technical paper to share the risk assessment methodology and risk elements scoring finalized via Delphi Method. The finalized methodology and the values used to rank the risk elements have been established based on years of relevant experience on the subject matter and based on a series of rigorous discussions with professionals in the industry. The risk scoring is mapped against the risk matrix (i.e., the LOF versus COF) and hence, the overall risk for the assets can be obtained. The overall risk can be used to prioritize and optimize integrity assessment, repair and strengthening work against the new seismic mapping of the country.

Keywords: methodology, PGA, risk, seismic

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