Search results for: reduced order models

Authors: Tony Mann

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This paper sets out the case for involving and engaging employees/workers/stakeholders/staff in any significant change that is being considered by the senior executives of the organization. It establishes the rationale, the approach, the methodology of engagement and the benefits of a participative approach. It challenges the new norm of imposing change for fear of resistance and instead suggests that involving people has better outcomes and a longer-lasting impact. Various strategic models are introduced and illustrated to explain how the process can be most effective. The paper highlights one model in particular (the Process Iceberg® Organizational Change model) that has proven to be instrumental in developing effective change. Its use is demonstrated in its various forms and explains why so much change fails to address the key elements and how we can be more productive in managing change. ‘Participation’ in change is too often seen as negative, expensive and unwieldy. The paper aims to show that another model: UIA=O+E, can offset the difficulties and, in fact, produce much more positive and effective change.

Keywords: facilitation, stakeholders, buy-in, digital workshops

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Authors: Galit Harel

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This article describes the long-term psychoanalytic psychotherapy of a young woman who had experienced trauma during her childhood. The details of the trauma were unknown, as all memory of the trauma had been repressed. Past trauma is analyzable through a prism of transference, dreaming and dreams, mental states, and thinking processes that offer an opportunity to explore and analyze the influence of both reality and fantasy on the patient. The presented case describes a therapeutic process that strives to discover hidden meanings through the unconscious system and illustrates the movement from unconscious to conscious during exploration of the patient’s personal trauma in treatment. The author discusses the importance of classical and contemporary psychoanalytic models of childhood sexual trauma through the discovery of manifest and latent content, unconscious fantasies, and actual events of trauma. It is suggested that the complexity of trauma is clarified by the tension between these models and by the inclusion of aspects of both of them for a complete understanding.

Keywords: dreams, psychoanalytic psychotherapy, thinking processes, transference, trauma

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Authors: Andreea Halunga, Chris D. Orme, Takashi Yamagata

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This paper proposes a heteroskedasticity-robust Breusch-Pagan test of the null hypothesis of zero cross-section (or contemporaneous) correlation in linear panel-data models, without necessarily assuming independence of the cross-sections. The procedure allows for either fixed, strictly exogenous and/or lagged dependent regressor variables, as well as quite general forms of both non-normality and heteroskedasticity in the error distribution. The asymptotic validity of the test procedure is predicated on the number of time series observations, T, being large relative to the number of cross-section units, N, in that: (i) either N is fixed as T→∞; or, (ii) N²/T→0, as both T and N diverge, jointly, to infinity. Given this, it is not expected that asymptotic theory would provide an adequate guide to finite sample performance when T/N is "small". Because of this, we also propose and establish asymptotic validity of, a number of wild bootstrap schemes designed to provide improved inference when T/N is small. Across a variety of experimental designs, a Monte Carlo study suggests that the predictions from asymptotic theory do, in fact, provide a good guide to the finite sample behaviour of the test when T is large relative to N. However, when T and N are of similar orders of magnitude, discrepancies between the nominal and empirical significance levels occur as predicted by the first-order asymptotic analysis. On the other hand, for all the experimental designs, the proposed wild bootstrap approximations do improve agreement between nominal and empirical significance levels, when T/N is small, with a recursive-design wild bootstrap scheme performing best, in general, and providing quite close agreement between the nominal and empirical significance levels of the test even when T and N are of similar size. Moreover, in comparison with the wild bootstrap "version" of the original Breusch-Pagan test our experiments indicate that the corresponding version of the heteroskedasticity-robust Breusch-Pagan test appears reliable. As an illustration, the proposed tests are applied to a dynamic growth model for a panel of 20 OECD countries.

Keywords: cross-section correlation, time-series heteroskedasticity, dynamic panel data, heteroskedasticity robust Breusch-Pagan test

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Authors: Safia Hocine, Djamil Aïssani

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Risk models, recently studied in the literature, are becoming increasingly complex. It is rare to find explicit analytical relations to calculate the ruin probability. Indeed, the stability issue occurs naturally in ruin theory, when parameters in risk cannot be estimated than with uncertainty. However, in most cases, there are no explicit formulas for the ruin probability. Hence, the interest to obtain explicit stability bounds for these probabilities in different risk models. In this paper, we interest to the stability bounds of the univariate classical risk model established using the regenerative processes approach. By adopting an algorithmic approach, we implement this approximation and determine numerically the bounds of ruin probability in the case of large claims (heavy-tailed distribution).

Keywords: heavy-tailed distribution, large claims, regenerative process, risk model, ruin probability, stability

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Authors: Gia Sirbiladze

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Route planning problems are among the activities that have the highest impact on logistical planning, transportation, and distribution because of their effects on efficiency in resource management, service levels, and client satisfaction. In extreme conditions, the difficulty of vehicle movement between different customers causes the imprecision of time of movement and the uncertainty of the feasibility of movement. A feasibility level of vehicle movement on the closed route of the disaster-streaking zone is defined for the construction of an objective function. Experts’ evaluations of the uncertain parameters in q-rung ortho-pair fuzzy numbers (q-ROFNs) are presented. A fuzzy bi-objective combinatorial optimization problem of fuzzy vehicle routine problem (FVRP) is constructed based on the technique of possibility theory. The FVRP is reduced to the bi-criteria partitioning problem for the so-called “promising” routes which were selected from the all-admissible closed routes. The convenient selection of the “promising” routes allows us to solve the reduced problem in real-time computing. For the numerical solution of the bi-criteria partitioning problem, the -constraint approach is used. The main results' support software is designed. The constructed model is illustrated with a numerical example.

Keywords: q-rung ortho-pair fuzzy sets, facility location selection problem, multi-objective combinatorial optimization problem, partitioning problem

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Authors: Niveen M. Hassan-Abbas

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The COVID-19 pandemic created a range of stressors, among them difficulties related to work conditions, financial changes, lack of childcare, and confinement or isolation due to social distancing. Among families and married individuals, these stressors were often expressed in additional daily hassles, with an influence on mental health. This study examined two moderated mediation models based on Bodenmann’s systemic-transactional stress model. Specifically, the models tested the hypothesis that intra-dyadic stress mediates the association between extra-dyadic stress and mental health, while two measures of family functioning, cohesion, and flexibility, moderate the relationship between extra and intra-dyadic stress. Participants were 480 heterosexual married Palestinians from Israel who completed self-report questionnaires. The results showed partial mediation patterns supporting both models, indicating that family cohesion and flexibility weakened the mediating effect of intra-dyadic stress on the relationship between extra-dyadic stress and mental health. These findings increase our understanding of the variables that affected mental health during the pandemic and suggested that when faced with extra-dyadic stress, married individuals with good family environments are less likely to experience high levels of intra-dyadic stress, which is in turn associated with preserved mental health. Limitations and implications for planning interventions for couples and families during the pandemic are discussed.

Keywords: Palestinian families in Israel, COVID-19 pandemic, family cohesion and flexibility, extra-dyadic stress, intra-dyadic stress, mental health

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Authors: Donatello Cardone

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Bilinear hysteresis models are usually used to describe the cyclic behavior of high damping rubber bearings. However, they neglect a number of phenomena (such as the interaction between axial load and shear force, buckling and post-buckling behavior, cavitation, scragging effects, etc.) that can significantly influence the dynamic behavior of such isolation devices. In this work, an advanced hysteresis model is examined and properly calibrated using consolidated procedures. Results of preliminary numerical analyses, performed in OpenSees, are shown and compared with the results of experimental tests on high damping rubber bearings and simulation analyses using alternative nonlinear models. The findings of this study can provide an useful tool for the accurate evaluation of the seismic response of structures with rubber-based isolation systems.

Keywords: seismic isolation, high damping rubber bearings, numerical modeling, axial-shear force interaction

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Authors: Tahsin Toma Sabbagh, Ihsan Al-Abboodi, Ali Al-Jazaairry

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Allowable-bearing capacity is the competency of soil to safely carries the pressure from the superstructure without experiencing a shear failure with accompanying excessive settlements. Ensuring a safe bearing pressure with respect to failure does not tolerate settlement of the foundation will be within acceptable limits. Therefore, settlement analysis should always be performed since most structures are settlement sensitive. When visualising the movement of a soil wedge in the bearing capacity criterion, both vertically and horizontally, it becomes clear that by confining the soil surrounding the foundation, both the bearing capacity and settlement values improve. In this study, two sizes of spread foundation were considered; (2×4) m and (3×5) m. These represent two real problem case studies of an existing building. The foundations were analysed in terms of dimension as well as position with respect to a confining wall (i.e., sheet piles on both sides). Assuming B is the least foundation dimension, the study comprised the analyses of three distances; (0.1 B), (0.5 B), and (0.75 B) between the sheet piles and foundations alongside three depths of confinement (0.5 B), (1 B), and (1.5 B). Nonlinear three-dimensional finite element analysis (ANSYS) was adopted to perform an analytical investigation on the behaviour of the two foundations contained by the case study. Results showed that confinement of foundations reduced the overall stresses near the foundation by 65% and reduced the vertical displacement by 90%. Moreover, the most effective distance between the confinement wall and the foundation was found to be 0.5 B.

Keywords: bearing capacity, cohesionless soils, soil confinement, soil modelling, spread footings

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Authors: N. Ould Cherchali, A. Tlemçani, M. S. Boucherit, A. Morsli

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Nature-inspired metaheuristic algorithms, particularly those founded on swarm intelligence, have attracted much attention over the past decade. Firefly algorithm has appeared in approximately seven years ago, its literature has enlarged considerably with different applications. It is inspired by the behavior of fireflies. The aim of this paper is the application of firefly algorithm for solving a nonlinear algebraic system. This resolution is needed to study the Selective Harmonic Eliminated Pulse Width Modulation strategy (SHEPWM) to eliminate the low order harmonics; results have been applied on multilevel inverters. The final results from simulations indicate the elimination of the low order harmonics as desired. Finally, experimental results are presented to confirm the simulation results and validate the efficaciousness of the proposed approach.

Keywords: firefly algorithm, metaheuristic algorithm, multilevel inverter, SHEPWM

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Authors: Hamidreza Khodaei, Ali Daryabeigi Zand

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Conjugated linoleic acid (CLA) is a mixture of isomers of linoleic acid. Despite the fact that 28 different isomers of CLA have already been identified, but the main isomer found in natural diets more than ninety percent CLA on intake of food constitutes demonstrates. CLA is known to be a substance that readily available by rumen microorganisms in some ruminants such as cattle and sheep would likely be made. The main objective of this research was to evaluate the impacts of CLA on lipid metabolism and enhanced fat around the muscle durability by reducing the process of oxidation. In order to implement this research, 80 female mice of the Balb/C, with 55 days of age were employed in the experiment. Treatments include various levels of CLA. Over the course of this study blood samples was also taken from the tail vein of the studied mice. Some other relevant parameters such as serum concentrations of triglycerides, total cholesterol, LDL, HDL and liver enzymes were also determined. The oxidative stability of fats TBARS technique was investigated at different intervals. The findings of the research were analyzed by statistical software of SAS 98. The results, CLA had no significant effect on liver enzymes (P > 0.05). However, it showed a statistically significant impact on triglycerides and total cholesterol. Ratio of LDL to HDL declined remarkably. Histological studies demonstrated reduced accumulation of fat in the tissues surrounding muscles.

Keywords: conjugated linoleic acid, fat metabolism, fat retention, oxidation process

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Authors: Benyan Jiang, Dawei Xia, Yong Li

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Compact city construction is considered as an effective measure to reduce carbon emission in city lives. Toyama City started its compact city strategy in 2000 and was selected as a Japanese Environmental Model City in 2008 for its achievement. This paper takes Toyama as a study case, aiming to find how city polices affected people’s life styles and reduced carbon emission. The main materials used in this study are first-hand documents, like urban planning materials, government annual report and statistic data from transportation association. It is found that the main measures taken by Toyama City include the construction of light rail transit, increasing the frequency of buses, building park and ride parking lots. In addition to hardware facilities, it also offers flexible policies like passengers' coupons for the senior citizens and free use of parking lots by buying shopping vouchers. Besides, Toyama City encourages citizens to live within 500 meters of public transportation. People who buy an apartment near public transportation will receive 500,000 Japanese Yen. These measures have proven to their effects. Compared with 2005, in 2014, the transportation sector reduced emissions of 2.35 million tons of CO₂, 13.6%. This aspect is related to the increase in the number of cars in public transport and also related to fuel improvement.

Keywords: Toyama, compact city, public transportation, CO₂ reduction

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Authors: Amritpal Slaich, Mark Elshaw

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This paper explores the development of a decision support framework for the introduction of business intelligence (BI) through operational research techniques for application by SMEs. Aligned with the goals of the new Midlands Enterprise Initiative of improving the skill levels of the Midlands workforce and addressing high levels of regional unemployment, we have developed a framework to increase the level of business intelligence used by SMEs to improve business decision-making. Many SMEs in the Midlands fail due to the lack of high quality decision making. Our framework outlines how universities can: engage with SMEs in the use of BI through operational research techniques; develop appropriate and easy to use Excel spreadsheet models; and make use of a process to allow SMEs to feedback their findings of the models. Future work will determine how well the framework performs in getting SMEs to apply BI to improve their decision-making performance.

Keywords: SMEs, decision support framework, business intelligence, operational research techniques

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Authors: Majid Khalili, Hamed Tayebi

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This paper considers a stochastic flexible job-shop scheduling (SFJSS) problem in the presence of production disruptions, and reactive scheduling is implemented in order to find the optimal solution under uncertainty. In this problem, there are two main disruptions including machine failure which influences operation time, and modification or cancellation of the order delivery date during production. In order to decrease the negative effects of these difficulties, two derived strategies from reactive scheduling are used; the first one is relevant to being able to allocate multiple machine to each job, and the other one is related to being able to select the best alternative process from other job while some disruptions would be created in the processes of a job. For this purpose, a Mixed Integer Linear Programming model is proposed.

Keywords: flexible job-shop scheduling, reactive scheduling, stochastic environment, mixed integer linear programming

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Authors: Mohammed Salem Atoum

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The success of audio steganography is to ensure imperceptibility of the embedded message in stego file and withstand any form of intentional or un-intentional degradation of message (robustness). Audio steganographic that utilized LSB of audio stream to embed message gain a lot of popularity over the years in meeting the perceptual transparency, robustness and capacity. This research proposes an XLSB technique in order to circumvent the weakness observed in LSB technique. Scrambling technique is introduce in two steps; partitioning the message into blocks followed by permutation each blocks in order to confuse the contents of the message. The message is embedded in the MP3 audio sample. After extracting the message, the permutation codebook is used to re-order it into its original form. Md5sum and SHA-256 are used to verify whether the message is altered or not during transmission. Experimental result shows that the XLSB performs better than LSB.

Keywords: XLSB, scrambling, audio steganography, security

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Authors: Ghanima Al-Sharrah, Haitham M. Lababidi, Yusuf I. Ali

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The main objective of the current work is to introduce sustainability factors in optimizing the supply chain model for process industries. The supply chain models are normally based on purely economic considerations related to costs and profits. To account for sustainability, two additional factors have been introduced; environment and risk. A supply chain for an entire petroleum organization has been considered for implementing and testing the proposed optimization models. The environmental and risk factors were introduced as indicators reflecting the anticipated impact of the optimal production scenarios on sustainability. The aggregation method used in extending the single objective function to multi-objective function is proven to be quite effective in balancing the contribution of each objective term. The results indicate that introducing sustainability factor would slightly reduce the economic benefit while improving the environmental and risk reduction performances of the process industries.

Keywords: environmental indicators, optimization, risk, supply chain

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Authors: Wai-Sum Lee

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This study investigates C-V and V-C co-articulation in Cantonese monosyllables of the CV, VC or CVC structure, with C = one of the three stop consonants [p, t, k] and V = one of the three corner vowels [i, a, u]. Five repetitions of each test syllable on a randomized list were elicited from Cantonese young adult speakers in their early-20s. A research tool, EMA AG500, was used to record the synchronized audio signals and articulatory data at three different locations of the tongue – tongue tip, tongue middle, and tongue back – and the positions of the upper and lower lips during the test syllables. The main findings based on the articulatory data collected from two male Cantonese speakers are as follows: (i) For the syllable-initial [p-], strong co-articulation is observed when [p-] preceding the high vowel [i] or [u], but not the low vowel [a]. As for the syllable-final [-p], it is strongly co-articulated with the preceding vowel, even when the vowel is [a]. (ii) The co-articulation between the initial [t-] and the following vowel of any type is weak. In the syllable-final position, the degree of co-articulatory resistance of [-t] is also large when following the vowel [u], but [-t] is largely co-articulated with the preceding vowel when the vowel is [i] or [a]. (iii) The strength of co-articulation differs when the initial [k-] precedes the different types of vowel. A stronger co-articulation between [k-] and [i] than between [k-] and [u], and the strength of co-articulation is much reduced between [k-] and [a]. However, in the syllable-final position, there is strong co-articulation between [-k] and the preceding vowel [a]. (iv) Among the three types of stop consonants in the syllable-initial position, the decreasing degree of co-articulatory resistance (CR) is [t-] > [k-] > [p-], and the degree of CR is reduced during all three types of stop in the syllable-final position. In general, the data on co-articulation between consonant and vowel in the Cantonese monosyllables are similar to those in other languages reported in previous studies.

Keywords: Cantonese, co-articulation, consonant, vowel

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Authors: Nihan Gurel Ulusan

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It is obvious that electrical energy, which is an inseparable part of modern day’s human and also the most important power source of our age, should be generated on a level that will suffice the nation’s requirements. The electrical energy used for a sustainable architectural design should be reduced as much as possible. Designing the buildings as energy efficient systems which aim at reducing the artificial illumination loads has been a current subject of our times as a result of concepts gaining importance like conscious consumption of energy sources, environment-friendly designs and sustainability. Reducing the consumption of electrical energy regarding the artificial lighting carries great significance, especially in the volumes which are used all day long like the educational buildings. Starting out with such an aim in this paper, the educational buildings are explored in terms of energy efficient lighting. Firstly, illumination techniques, illumination systems, light sources, luminaries, illumination controls and 'efficient energy' usage in lighting are mentioned. In addition, natural and artificial lighting systems used in educational buildings and also the spaces building up these kind buildings are examined in terms of energy efficient lighting. Lastly, the illumination properties of the school sample chosen for this study, Kağıthane Anadolu Lisesi, a typical high school in Istanbul, is observed. Suggestions are made in order to improve the system by evaluating the illumination properties of the classes with the survey carried out with the users.

Keywords: educational buildings, energy efficient, illumination techniques, lighting

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Authors: Micheal Olaolu Arowolo, Muhammad Azam, Fei He, Mihail Popescu, Dong Xu

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As the quantity of biological articles rises, so does the number of biological route figures. Each route figure shows gene names and relationships. Annotating pathway diagrams manually is time-consuming. Advanced image understanding models could speed up curation, but they must be more precise. There is rich information in biological pathway figures. The first step to performing image understanding of these figures is to recognize gene names automatically. Classical optical character recognition methods have been employed for gene name recognition, but they are not optimized for literature mining data. This study devised a method to recognize an image bounding box of gene name as a photo using deep Siamese neural network models to outperform the existing methods using ResNet, DenseNet and Inception architectures, the results obtained about 84% accuracy.

Keywords: biological pathway, gene identification, object detection, Siamese network

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Authors: R. Pravin Kumar, L. Roopa

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Enzymes are molecular machines used in various industries such as pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, food and animal feed, paper and leather processing, biofuel, and etc. Nevertheless, this has been possible only by the breath-taking efforts of the chemists and biologists to evolve/engineer these mysterious biomolecules to work the needful. Main agenda of this enzyme engineering project is to derive screening and selection tools to obtain focused libraries of enzyme variants with desired qualities. The methodologies for this research include the well-established directed evolution, rational redesign and relatively less established yet much faster and accurate insilico methods. This concept was initiated as a Receptor Rependent-4Dimensional Quantitative Structure Activity Relationship (RD-4D-QSAR) to predict kinetic properties of enzymes and extended here to study transaminase by a 7D QSAR approach. Induced-fit scenarios were explored using Quantum Mechanics/Molecular Mechanics (QM/MM) simulations which were then placed in a grid that stores interactions energies derived from QM parameters (QMgrid). In this study, the mutated enzymes were immersed completely inside the QMgrid and this was combined with solvation models to predict descriptors. After statistical screening of descriptors, QSAR models showed > 90% specificity and > 85% sensitivity towards the experimental activity. Mapping descriptors on the enzyme structure revealed hotspots important to enhance the enantioselectivity of the enzyme.

Keywords: QMgrid, QM/MM simulations, RD-4D-QSAR, transaminase

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Authors: Levent Basayigit, Mert Dedeoglu, Fadime Ozogul

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In this study, an application was carried out to determine the Volcanic Soils by using remote sensing.  The study area was located on the Golcuk formation in Isparta-Turkey. The thermal bands of Landsat 7 image were used for processing. The implementation of the climate model that was based on the water index was used in ERDAS Imagine software together with pixel based image classification. Soil Moisture Index (SMI) was modeled by using the surface temperature (Ts) which was obtained from thermal bands and vegetation index (NDVI) derived from Landsat 7. Surface moisture values were grouped and classified by using scoring system. Thematic layers were compared together with the field studies. Consequently, different moisture levels for volcanic soils were indicator for determination and separation. Those thermal wavelengths are preferable bands for separation of volcanic soils using moisture and temperature models.

Keywords: Landsat 7, soil moisture index, temperature models, volcanic soils

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Authors: Urvi Shah, Anmol Jain

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The talks of a New Global Order have been doing rounds since the advent of 21st century. Similar change in global scenario was witnessed when the Bretton Woods System came up post the World War II. The changing world order has been analyzed by using the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) and Nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates. The PPP and Nominal GDP methods show the purchasing power and financial background of the countries respectively, which helps in knowing both real and nominal financial strength of the country. Today, the rising powers of BRICS are posing new challenges to the world order shaped by the West. BRICS, i.e. Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, countries have at various instances represented the interests of developing countries at world forums. The pooled population of these nations accounts for 41.6% of the total world population which gives a very resilient idea of the workforce or human resources which is mobilized by them. They have a combined GDP (PPP) of around 30.57% of the total world GDP (PPP). The paper tries to analyze the prospects and impact of the New Development Bank (NDB) formerly known as the BRICS Bank, on world economy, which has the potential to act as a rival to West dominated IMF and World Bank. The paper studies the paradigm shift in the global order, impact of the NDB on third world nations and the developed nations. The study concluded that the relative positions of BRICS countries in the world economy are changing, irrespective of the measurement methodology being US$ or the PPP model.

Keywords: BRICS, New Development Bank, Nominal GDP, purchasing power parity

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Authors: Mohamad Kassab, Amal El Fallah Seghrouchni, Frederic Barbaresco, Raed Abu Zitar

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Detecting objects such as drones is a challenging task as their relative size and maneuvering capabilities deceive machine learning models and cause them to misclassify drones as birds or other objects. In this work, we investigate applying several deep learning techniques to benchmark real data sets of flying drones. A deep learning paradigm is proposed for the purpose of mitigating the complexity of those systems. The proposed paradigm consists of a hybrid between the AdderNet deep learning paradigm and the Single Shot Detector (SSD) paradigm. The goal was to minimize multiplication operations numbers in the filtering layers within the proposed system and, hence, reduce complexity. Some standard machine learning technique, such as SVM, is also tested and compared to other deep learning systems. The data sets used for training and testing were either complete or filtered in order to remove the images with mall objects. The types of data were RGB or IR data. Comparisons were made between all these types, and conclusions were presented.

Keywords: drones detection, deep learning, birds versus drones, precision of detection, AdderNet

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Authors: Hyun-Woo Cho

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Continuous monitoring of industrial plants is one of necessary tasks when it comes to ensuring high-quality final products. In terms of monitoring and diagnosis, it is quite critical and important to detect some incipient abnormal events of manufacturing processes in order to improve safety and reliability of operations involved and to reduce related losses. In this work a new multivariate statistical online diagnostic method is presented using a case study. For building some reference models an empirical discriminant model is constructed based on various past operation runs. When a fault is detected on-line, an on-line diagnostic module is initiated. Finally, the status of the current operating conditions is compared with the reference model to make a diagnostic decision. The performance of the presented framework is evaluated using a dataset from complex industrial processes. It has been shown that the proposed diagnostic method outperforms other techniques especially in terms of incipient detection of any faults occurred.

Keywords: data mining, empirical model, on-line diagnostics, process fault, process monitoring

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Authors: M. A. C. S. Sampath Fernando, James M. Curran, Renate Meyer

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Model assessment, in the Bayesian context, involves evaluation of the goodness-of-fit and the comparison of several alternative candidate models for predictive accuracy and improvements. In posterior predictive checks, the data simulated under the fitted model is compared with the actual data. Predictive model accuracy is estimated using information criteria such as the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC), the Deviance information criterion (DIC), and the Watanabe-Akaike information criterion (WAIC). The goal of an information criterion is to obtain an unbiased measure of out-of-sample prediction error. Since posterior checks use the data twice; once for model estimation and once for testing, a bias correction which penalises the model complexity is incorporated in these criteria. Cross-validation (CV) is another method used for examining out-of-sample prediction accuracy. Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV) is the most computationally expensive variant among the other CV methods, as it fits as many models as the number of observations. Importance sampling (IS), truncated importance sampling (TIS) and Pareto-smoothed importance sampling (PSIS) are generally used as approximations to the exact LOO-CV and utilise the existing MCMC results avoiding expensive computational issues. The reciprocals of the predictive densities calculated over posterior draws for each observation are treated as the raw importance weights. These are in turn used to calculate the approximate LOO-CV of the observation as a weighted average of posterior densities. In IS-LOO, the raw weights are directly used. In contrast, the larger weights are replaced by their modified truncated weights in calculating TIS-LOO and PSIS-LOO. Although, information criteria and LOO-CV are unable to reflect the goodness-of-fit in absolute sense, the differences can be used to measure the relative performance of the models of interest. However, the use of these measures is only valid under specific circumstances. This study has developed 11 models using normal, log-normal, gamma, and student’s t distributions to improve the PCR stutter prediction with forensic data. These models are comprised of four with profile-wide variances, four with locus specific variances, and three which are two-component mixture models. The mean stutter ratio in each model is modeled as a locus specific simple linear regression against a feature of the alleles under study known as the longest uninterrupted sequence (LUS). The use of AIC, BIC, DIC, and WAIC in model comparison has some practical limitations. Even though, IS-LOO, TIS-LOO, and PSIS-LOO are considered to be approximations of the exact LOO-CV, the study observed some drastic deviations in the results. However, there are some interesting relationships among the logarithms of pointwise predictive densities (lppd) calculated under WAIC and the LOO approximation methods. The estimated overall lppd is a relative measure that reflects the overall goodness-of-fit of the model. Parallel log-likelihood profiles for the models conditional on equal posterior variances in lppds were observed. This study illustrates the limitations of the information criteria in practical model comparison problems. In addition, the relationships among LOO-CV approximation methods and WAIC with their limitations are discussed. Finally, useful recommendations that may help in practical model comparisons with these methods are provided.

Keywords: cross-validation, importance sampling, information criteria, predictive accuracy

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Authors: Indira priyadarshini, B. Tulja Lal, K. Anusha, P. Sai Varun

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Formula One cars are the fastest road course racing cars in the world, owing to very high cornering speeds achieved through the generation of large amounts of aerodynamic downforce. The main intentions and goals of this paper are to reduce the accidents and improving the safety without affecting the visibility of the driver by redesigning Halo that was developed by Mercedes in conjunction with the FIA to deflect flying debris, such as a loose wheel, away from a driver’s head while the hinged locking mechanism can quickly be removed for easy access. Halo design has been modified in order to reduce the weight without affecting the aerodynamics of the car. CFD simulation is carried out to observe the flow over the Halo. The velocity profile and pressure contours were analyzed. Halo is designed using SOLIDWORKS Furthermore, using the software ANSYS FLUENT 3D simulation of the airflow contour around the Halo in order to make changes in the geometry to improve the design by reducing air resistance and improving aerodynamics. According to our assumption, new 3D Halo model has better aerodynamic properties in order to analyse possible improvements compared to the initial design. Structural analysis is also done by using ANSYS by making an F1 tire colliding with Halo at 225 kmph in order to know the deflections in the structure.

Keywords: aerodynamics, Halo, safety, visibility

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Authors: Rob van den Dam

Abstract:

Today’s Internet of Things (IoT) comprises more than a billion intelligent devices, connected via wired/wireless communications. The expected proliferation of hundreds of billions more places us at the threshold of a transformation sweeping across the communications industry. Yet, we found that the IoT architecture and solutions that currently work for billions of devices won’t necessarily scale to tomorrow’s hundreds of billions of devices because of high cost, lack of privacy, not future-proof, lack of functional value and broken business models. As the IoT scales exponentially, decentralized networks have the potential to reduce infrastructure and maintenance costs to manufacturers. Decentralization also promises increased robustness by removing single points of failure that could exist in traditional centralized networks. By shifting the power in the network from the center to the edges, devices gain greater autonomy and can become points of transactions and economic value creation for owners and users. To validate the underlying technology vision, IBM jointly developed with Samsung Electronics the autonomous decentralized peer-to- peer proof-of-concept (PoC). The primary objective of this PoC was to establish a foundation on which to demonstrate several capabilities that are fundamental to building a decentralized IoT. Though many commercial systems in the future will exist as hybrid centralized-decentralized models, the PoC demonstrated a fully distributed proof. The PoC (a) validated the future vision for decentralized systems to extensively augment today’s centralized solutions, (b) demonstrated foundational IoT tasks without the use of centralized control, (c) proved that empowered devices can engage autonomously in marketplace transactions. The PoC opens the door for the communications and electronics industry to further explore the challenges and opportunities of potential hybrid models that can address the complexity and variety of requirements posed by the internet that continues to scale. Contents: (a) The new approach for an IoT that will be secure and scalable, (b) The three foundational technologies that are key for the future IoT, (c) The related business models and user experiences, (d) How such an IoT will create an 'Economy of Things', (e) The role of users, devices, and industries in the IoT future, (f) The winners in the IoT economy.

Keywords: IoT, internet, wired, wireless

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Authors: Ali Ayatic, Emad Mozaffari, Bahareh Tanhaei, Maryam Khajenoori, Saeedeh Movaghar Khoshkho, Ali Ayati

Abstract:

The abuse of antibiotics, such as tetracycline (TC), is a great global threat to people and the use of topical antibiotics is a promising tact that can help to solve this problem. Antibiotic therapy is often appropriate and necessary for acute wound infections, while topical tetracycline can be highly efficient in improving the wound healing process in diabetics. Due to the advantages of drug-loaded hydrogels as wound dressing, such as ease of handling, high moisture resistance, excellent biocompatibility, and the ability to activate immune cells to speed wound healing, it was found as an ideal wound treatment. In this work, the tetracycline-loaded hydrogels combining agar (AG) and κ-carrageenan (k-CAR) as polymer materials were prepared, in which span60 surfactant was introduced inside as a drug carrier. The Field Emission Scanning Electron Microscopes (FESEM) and Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) techniques were employed to provide detailed information on the morphology, composition, and structure of fabricated drug-loaded hydrogels and their mechanical properties, and hydrogel permeability to water vapor was investigated as well. Two types of gram-negative and gram-positive bacteria were used to explore the antibacterial properties of prepared tetracycline-contained hydrogels. Their swelling and drug release behavior was studied using the changing factors such as the ratio of polysaccharides (MAG/MCAR), the span60 surfactant concentration, potassium chloride (KCl) concentration and different release media (deionized water (DW), phosphate-buffered saline (PBS), and simulated wound fluid (SWF)) at different times. Finally, the kinetic behavior of hydrogel swelling was studied. Also, the experimental data of TC release to DW, PBS, and SWF using various mathematical models such as Higuchi, Korsmeyer-Peppas, zero-order, and first-order in the linear and nonlinear modes were evaluated.

Keywords: drug release, hydrogel, tetracycline, wound healing

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Authors: N. M. Tawil, A. R. Musa, A. I Che-Ani, H. Basri

Abstract:

It is known that rising of house prices recently has affected the home ownership, especially for the future. Hence to overcome the rose of housing prices, the self-build home or DIY concept is perceived as one of the solution. This concept is proposed to be implemented for the future housing design as a strategy in helping the government to provide affordable housing, especially for middle income group to own a landed housing property. This concept is expected to offer a lower housing price for middle-income buyers and provide an opportunity for buyers to design their dream’s home with the self-build home or 'Do It Yourself' (DIY) concept. In order to implement this concept as affordable housing for MIG, the public perceptions and acceptances on the self-build home/ DIY concept itself should be identified. To achieve this aim this study was conducted by using 2 method namely literature review and questionnaire survey. The questionnaire survey was distributed to 200 respondents randomly in Lembah Klang and were analysed through the SPSS program. The results show that respondents are very interested in buying a home that they can have with the appropriate size of the home. Average of them known about Do It Yourself (DIY) concept but none of respondent have implement this concept. Most of respondents were agreed that this DIY method suitable to be implemented in the housing industry in Malaysia and they were agreed that this concept can offer a cheaper housing price because the construction costs were reduced. Moreover by providing a basic home the owner can renovate their home according to their need and financial capability.

Keywords: affordable housing, Do It Yourself, self-Built home, perception, middle income group

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Authors: Li Hui, Riyadh Hindi

Abstract:

In the United States, bridge construction often employs overhang brackets to support the deck overhang, the weight of fresh concrete, and loads from construction equipment. This approach, however, can lead to significant torsional moments on the exterior girders, potentially causing excessive girder rotation. Such rotations can result in various safety and maintenance issues, including thinning of the deck, reduced concrete cover, and cracking during service. Traditionally, these issues are addressed by installing temporary lateral bracing systems and conducting comprehensive torsional analysis through detailed finite element analysis for the construction of bridge deck overhang. However, this process is often intricate and time-intensive, with the spacing between temporary lateral bracing systems usually relying on the field engineers’ expertise. In this study, a deep neural network model is introduced to limit exterior girder rotation during bridge deck construction. The model predicts the optimal spacing between temporary bracing systems. To train this model, over 10,000 finite element models were generated in SAP2000, incorporating varying parameters such as girder dimensions, span length, and types and spacing of lateral bracing systems. The findings demonstrate that the deep neural network provides an effective and efficient alternative for limiting the exterior girder rotation for bridge deck construction. By reducing dependence on extensive finite element analyses, this approach stands out as a significant advancement in improving safety and maintenance effectiveness in the construction of bridge decks.

Keywords: bridge deck construction, exterior girder rotation, deep learning, finite element analysis

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Authors: Nurul Aini Abdul Wahab, Nor Syamim Halidin, Sayidatina Aisah Masnan, Nur Izzati Romli

Abstract:

There are many applications of principle component method for reducing the large set of variables in various fields. Fisher’s Discriminant function is also a popular tool for classification. In this research, the researcher focuses on studying the performance of Principle Component-Fisher’s Discriminant function in helping to classify rice kernels to their defined classes. The data were collected on the smells or odour of the rice kernel using odour-detection sensor, Cyranose. 32 variables were captured by this electronic nose (e-nose). The objective of this research is to measure how well a combination model, between principle component and linear discriminant, to be as a classification model. Principle component method was used to reduce all 32 variables to a smaller and manageable set of components. Then, the reduced components were used to develop the Fisher’s Discriminant function. In this research, there are 4 defined classes of rice kernel which are Aromatic, Brown, Ordinary and Others. Based on the output from principle component method, the 32 variables were reduced to only 2 components. Based on the output of classification table from the discriminant analysis, 40.76% from the total observations were correctly classified into their classes by the PC-Discriminant function. Indirectly, it gives an idea that the classification model developed has committed to more than 50% of misclassifying the observations. As a conclusion, the Fisher’s Discriminant function that was built on a 2-component from PCA (2-PC-D) is not satisfying to classify the rice kernels into its defined classes.

Keywords: classification model, discriminant function, principle component analysis, variable reduction

Procedia PDF Downloads 336