Search results for: time series prediction

Authors: Grange Sylvain, Plancher Ronan, Reurink Guustav, Croisille Pierre, Edouard Pascal

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The primary objective of this study was to analyze the potential correlation between the pain experienced at the time of a hamstring muscle injury and the volume of the lesion measured on MRI. The secondary objectives were to analyze a correlation between this pain and the lesion grade as well as the affected hamstring muscle. We performed a retrospective analysis of the data collected in a prospective, multicenter, non-interventional cohort study (HAMMER). Patients with suspected hamstring muscle injury had an MRI after the injury and at the same time were evaluated for their pain intensity experienced at the time of the injury with a Numerical Pain Rating Scale (NPRS) from 0 to 10. A total of 61 patients were included in the present analysis. MRIs were performed in an average of less than 8 days. There was a significant correlation between pain and the injury volume (r=0.287; p=0.025). There was no significant correlation between the pain and the lesion grade (p>0.05), nor between the pain and affected hamstring muscle (p>0.05). Pain at the time of injury appeared to be correlated with the volume of muscle affected. These results confirm the value of a clinical approach in the initial evaluation of hamstring injuries to better select patients eligible for further imaging.

Keywords: hamstring muscle injury, MRI, volume lesion, pain

Procedia PDF Downloads 101

Authors: Vishwambhar Prasad Sati

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India’s economy is agriculture dominated. About 70% of the total population depends on practicing agriculture. Out of an estimated 140.3 million ha net cultivated area, 79.44 million ha (57%) is rain-fed, contributing 44% of the total food grain production. Meanwhile, India ranks second and shares 11.3% of the arable land of the world. It means that India has a high potential to harness agricultural resources for present and future food security. However, about 21.9% of people are living below the poverty line, and similarly, a large number of people are deprived or insecure about food. This situation is most critical in rural areas, where about 70% population lives. The study examines the present status, future trends, and challenges of food and agriculture in India. Time series data of the last three decades was gathered from secondary sources on area, production, and yield of crops; irrigated area; production of major crops; area, production, and yield of crops in the major food-producing states of India; food storage and poverty. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, correlation methods, and a regression model. State-level data on area, production, and yield of crops and irrigation facilities were indexed into levels, and the potentials of food production in the major food-producing states were observed. It was noted that the progressive growth rate of food production is higher than the population, which means that food is enough to feed the population; however, it is not accessible to all optimally because of wastage, leakage, lack of food storage, and proper distribution of food. If food is stored and distributed properly, there would not be any food shortage in India, the study revealed.

Keywords: agriculture, food production, population growth, poverty, future trends

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Authors: Anna Gaspard, Stéphane Boudreau, Martin Simard

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Altered temperature and precipitation regimes associated with climate change generally result in improved conditions for plant growth. For Arctic and sub-Arctic ecosystems, this new climatic context favours an increase in primary productivity, a phenomenon often referred to as "greening". The development of an erect shrub cover has been identified as the main driver of Arctic greening. Although this phenomenon has been widely documented at the circumpolar scale, little information is available at the scale of plant communities, the basic unit of the Arctic, and sub-Arctic landscape mosaic. The objective of this study is to quantify the variation of NDVI within the different plant communities of Nunavik, which will allow us to identify the plant formations that contribute the most to the increase in productivity observed in this territory. To do so, the variation of NDVI extracted from Landsat images for the period 1984 to 2020 was quantified. From the Landsat scenes, annual summer NDVI mosaics with a resolution of 30 m were generated. The ecological mapping of Northern Quebec vegetation was then overlaid on the time series of NDVI maps to calculate the average NDVI per vegetation polygon for each year. Our results show that NDVI increases are more important for the bioclimatic domains of forest tundra and erect shrub tundra, and shrubby formations. Surface deposits, variations in mean annual temperature, and variations in winter precipitation are involved in NDVI variations. This study has thus allowed us to quantify changes in Nunavik's vegetation communities, using fine spatial resolution satellite imagery data.

Keywords: climate change, latitudinal gradient, plant communities, productivity

Procedia PDF Downloads 191

Authors: R. M. Chandler, A. J. Stringer

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In adults, short bursts of high-intensity exercise (intensities between 80-95% of maximum heart rates) increase cardiovascular and metabolic function without the time investment of traditional aerobic training. Similar improvements in various health indices are also becoming increasingly evident in children in countries other than the United States. In the United States, physical education programs have become shorter in length and fewer in frequency. With this in the background, it is imperative that health and physical educators delivered well-organized and focused fitness programs that can be tolerated across many different somatotypes. Perhaps the least effective lag-time in a US physical education (PE) class is the first 10 minutes, a time during which children warm up. Replacing a traditional PE warmup with a 10 min high-intensity excise protocol is a time-efficient method to impact health, leaving as much time for other PE material such as skill development, motor behavior development as possible. This supplemented 10 min high-intensity exercise increases cardiovascular function as well as induces favorable body composition changes in as little as six weeks with further enhancement throughout a semester of activity. The supplemental high-intensity exercise did not detract from the PE lesson outcomes.

Keywords: cardiovascular fitness, high intensity interval training, high intensity exercise, pediatric

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Authors: Idris M. Olatunde, Kareem B.

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In manufacturing systems, especially job shops, service performance is a key factor that determines customer satisfaction. Service performance depends not only on the quality of the output but on the delivery lead times as well. Besides product quality enhancement, delivery lead time must be minimized for optimal patronage. Quoting accurate due dates is sine quo non for job shop operational survival in a global competitive environment. Quoting accurate due dates in job shops has been a herculean task that nearly defiled solutions from many methods employed due to complex jobs routing nature of the system. This class of NP-hard problems possessed no rigid algorithms that can give an optimal solution. Jobshop operational problem is more complex in developing nations due to some peculiar factors. Operational complexity in job shops emanated from political instability, poor economy, technological know-how, and the non-promising socio-political environment. The mentioned exogenous factors were hardly considered in the previous studies on scheduling problem related to due date determination in job shops. This study has filled the gap created in the past studies by developing a dynamic model that incorporated the exogenous factors for accurate determination of due dates for varying jobs complexity. Real data from six job shops selected from the different part of Nigeria, were used to test the efficacy of the model, and the outcomes were analyzed statistically. The results of the analyzes showed that the model is more promising in determining accurate due dates than the traditional models deployed by many job shops in terms of patronage and lead times minimization.

Keywords: due dates prediction, improved performance, customer satisfaction, dynamic model, exogenous factors, job shops

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Authors: Adriana M. Duquette, Derek P. Bornath

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Reaction Time (RT) and Movement Time (MT) are important components of everyday life that have an effect on the way in which we move about our environment. These measures become even more crucial when an event can be caused (or avoided) in a fraction of a second, such as the RT and MT required while driving. The purpose of this study was to develop a more simple method of testing RT and MT during simulated driving with or without text messaging, in a university-aged population (n = 170). In the control condition, a randomly-delayed red light stimulus flashed on a computer interface after the participant began pressing the ‘gas’ pedal on a foot switch mat. Simple RT was defined as the time between the presentation of the light stimulus and the initiation of lifting the foot from the switch mat ‘gas’ pedal; while MT was defined as the time after the initiation of lifting the foot, to the initiation of depressing the switch mat ‘brake’ pedal. In the texting condition, upon pressing the ‘gas’ pedal, a ‘text message’ appeared on the computer interface in a dialog box that the participant typed on their cell phone while waiting for the light stimulus to turn red. In both conditions, the sequence was repeated 10 times, and an average RT (seconds) and average MT (seconds) were recorded. Condition significantly (p = .000) impacted overall RTs, as the texting condition (0.47 s) took longer than the no-texting (control) condition (0.34 s). Longer MTs were also recorded during the texting condition (0.28 s) than in the control condition (0.23 s), p = .001. Overall increases in Response Time (RT + MT) of 189 ms during the texting condition would equate to an additional 4.2 meters (to react to the stimulus and begin braking) if the participant had been driving an automobile at 80 km per hour. In conclusion, increasing task complexity due to the dual-task demand of text messaging during simulated driving caused significant increases in RT (41%), MT (23%) and Response Time (34%), thus further strengthening the mounting evidence against text messaging while driving.

Keywords: simulated driving, text messaging, reaction time, movement time

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Authors: Ali Kazemi

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Those within the volatile and interconnected international economic markets, appropriately predicting market trends, hold substantial fees for traders and financial establishments. Traditional device mastering strategies have made full-size strides in forecasting marketplace movements; however, monetary data's complicated and networked nature calls for extra sophisticated processes. This observation offers a groundbreaking method for monetary marketplace prediction that leverages the synergistic capability of Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. Our suggested algorithm is meticulously designed to forecast the traits of inventory market indices and cryptocurrency costs, utilizing a comprehensive dataset spanning from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2023. This era, marked by sizable volatility and transformation in financial markets, affords a solid basis for schooling and checking out our predictive version. Our algorithm integrates diverse facts to construct a dynamic economic graph that correctly reflects market intricacies. We meticulously collect opening, closing, and high and low costs daily for key inventory marketplace indices (e.g., S&P 500, NASDAQ) and widespread cryptocurrencies (e.g., Bitcoin, Ethereum), ensuring a holistic view of marketplace traits. Daily trading volumes are also incorporated to seize marketplace pastime and liquidity, providing critical insights into the market's shopping for and selling dynamics. Furthermore, recognizing the profound influence of the monetary surroundings on financial markets, we integrate critical macroeconomic signs with hobby fees, inflation rates, GDP increase, and unemployment costs into our model. Our GCN algorithm is adept at learning the relational patterns amongst specific financial devices represented as nodes in a comprehensive market graph. Edges in this graph encapsulate the relationships based totally on co-movement styles and sentiment correlations, enabling our version to grasp the complicated community of influences governing marketplace moves. Complementing this, our LSTM algorithm is trained on sequences of the spatial-temporal illustration discovered through the GCN, enriched with historic fee and extent records. This lets the LSTM seize and expect temporal marketplace developments accurately. Inside the complete assessment of our GCN-LSTM algorithm across the inventory marketplace and cryptocurrency datasets, the version confirmed advanced predictive accuracy and profitability compared to conventional and opportunity machine learning to know benchmarks. Specifically, the model performed a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.85%, indicating high precision in predicting day-by-day charge movements. The RMSE was recorded at 1.2%, underscoring the model's effectiveness in minimizing tremendous prediction mistakes, which is vital in volatile markets. Furthermore, when assessing the model's predictive performance on directional market movements, it achieved an accuracy rate of 78%, significantly outperforming the benchmark models, averaging an accuracy of 65%. This high degree of accuracy is instrumental for techniques that predict the course of price moves. This study showcases the efficacy of mixing graph-based totally and sequential deep learning knowledge in economic marketplace prediction and highlights the fee of a comprehensive, records-pushed evaluation framework. Our findings promise to revolutionize investment techniques and hazard management practices, offering investors and economic analysts a powerful device to navigate the complexities of cutting-edge economic markets.

Keywords: financial market prediction, graph convolutional networks (GCNs), long short-term memory (LSTM), cryptocurrency forecasting

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Authors: Esra Polat

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Partial Least Squares Discriminant Analysis (PLSDA) is a statistical method for classification and consists a classical Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR) in which the dependent variable is a categorical one expressing the class membership of each observation. PLSDA can be applied in many cases when classical discriminant analysis cannot be applied. For example, when the number of observations is low and when the number of independent variables is high. When there are missing values, PLSDA can be applied on the data that is available. Finally, it is adapted when multicollinearity between independent variables is high. The aim of this study is to determine the economic and/or demographic indicators, which are effective in grouping the 28 European Union (EU) member countries and 7 candidate countries (including potential candidates Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) and Kosova) by using the data set obtained from database of the World Bank for 2014. Leaving the political issues aside, the analysis is only concerned with the economic and demographic variables that have the potential influence on country’s eligibility for EU entrance. Hence, in this study, both the performance of PLSDA method in classifying the countries correctly to their pre-defined groups (candidate or member) and the differences between the EU countries and candidate countries in terms of these indicators are analyzed. As a result of the PLSDA, the value of percentage correctness of 100 % indicates that overall of the 35 countries is classified correctly. Moreover, the most important variables that determine the statuses of member and candidate countries in terms of economic indicators are identified as 'external balance on goods and services (% GDP)', 'gross domestic savings (% GDP)' and 'gross national expenditure (% GDP)' that means for the 2014 economical structure of countries is the most important determinant of EU membership. Subsequently, the model validated to prove the predictive ability by using the data set for 2015. For prediction sample, %97,14 of the countries are correctly classified. An interesting result is obtained for only BiH, which is still a potential candidate for EU, predicted as a member of EU by using the indicators data set for 2015 as a prediction sample. Although BiH has made a significant transformation from a war-torn country to a semi-functional state, ethnic tensions, nationalistic rhetoric and political disagreements are still evident, which inhibit Bosnian progress towards the EU.

Keywords: classification, demographic indicators, economic indicators, European Union, partial least squares discriminant analysis

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Authors: Faiz N. K. Yusufi, Aquil Ahmed, Jamal Ahmad

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Predicting the risk of diabetic retinopathy (DR) in Indian type 2 diabetes patients is immensely necessary. India, being the second largest country after China in terms of a number of diabetic patients, to the best of our knowledge not a single risk score for complications has ever been investigated. Diabetic retinopathy is a serious complication and is the topmost reason for visual impairment across countries. Any type or form of DR has been taken as the event of interest, be it mild, back, grade I, II, III, and IV DR. A sample was determined and randomly collected from the Rajiv Gandhi Centre for Diabetes and Endocrinology, J.N.M.C., A.M.U., Aligarh, India. Collected variables include patients data such as sex, age, height, weight, body mass index (BMI), blood sugar fasting (BSF), post prandial sugar (PP), glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), systolic blood pressure (SBP), smoking, alcohol habits, total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), high density lipoprotein (HDL), low density lipoprotein (LDL), very low density lipoprotein (VLDL), physical activity, duration of diabetes, diet control, history of antihypertensive drug treatment, family history of diabetes, waist circumference, hip circumference, medications, central obesity and history of DR. Cox proportional hazard regression is used to design risk scores for the prediction of retinopathy. Model calibration and discrimination are assessed from Hosmer Lemeshow and area under receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). Overfitting and underfitting of the model are checked by applying regularization techniques and best method is selected between ridge, lasso and elastic net regression. Optimal cut off point is chosen by Youden’s index. Five-year probability of DR is predicted by both survival function, and Markov chain two state model and the better technique is concluded. The risk scores developed can be applied by doctors and patients themselves for self evaluation. Furthermore, the five-year probabilities can be applied as well to forecast and maintain the condition of patients. This provides immense benefit in real application of DR prediction in T2DM.

Keywords: Cox proportional hazard regression, diabetic retinopathy, ROC curve, type 2 diabetes mellitus

Procedia PDF Downloads 190

Authors: Juzhong Tan, William Kerr

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Conching is one critical procedure in chocolate processing, where special flavors are developed, and smooth mouse feel the texture of the chocolate is developed due to particle size reduction of cocoa mass and other additives. Therefore, determination of the particle size and volatile compounds profile of cocoa bean is important for chocolate manufacturers to ensure the quality of chocolate products. Currently, precise particle size measurement is usually done by laser scattering which is expensive and inaccessible to small/medium size chocolate manufacturers. Also, some other alternatives, such as micrometer and microscopy, can’t provide good measurements and provide little information. Volatile compounds analysis of cocoa during conching, has similar problems due to its high cost and limited accessibility. In this study, a self-made electronic nose system consists of gas sensors (TGS 800 and 2000 series) was inserted to a conching machine and was used to monitoring the volatile compound profile of chocolate during the conching. A model correlated volatile compounds profiles along with factors including the content of cocoa, sugar, and the temperature during the conching to particle size of chocolate particles by genetic programming was established. The model was used to predict the particle size reduction of chocolates with different cocoa mass to sugar ratio (1:2, 1:1, 1.5:1, 2:1) at 8 conching time (15min, 30min, 1h, 1.5h, 2h, 4h, 8h, and 24h). And the predictions were compared to laser scattering measurements of the same chocolate samples. 91.3% of the predictions were within the range of later scatting measurement ± 5% deviation. 99.3% were within the range of later scatting measurement ± 10% deviation.

Keywords: cocoa bean, conching, electronic nose, genetic programming

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Authors: Jane Larkin

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Combining elements of philosophy, science, and creative writing, this investigation explores how a philosophically structured science-fiction novel can challenge the theory of linearity and singularity of time through the ‘many worlds’ theory. This concept is addressed through the creation of a research exegesis and accompanying creative artefact, designed to be read in conjunction with each other in an explorative, interwoven manner. Research undertaken into scientific concepts, such as the ‘many worlds’ interpretation of quantum mechanics and diverse philosophers and their ideologies on time, is embodied in an original science-fiction narrative titled, It Goes On. The five frames that make up the creative artefact are enhanced not only by five leading philosophers and their philosophies on time but by an appreciation of the research, which comes first in the paper. Research into traditional approaches to storytelling is creatively and innovatively inverted in several ways, thus challenging the singularity and linearity of time. Further nonconventional approaches to literary techniques include an abstract narrator, embodied by time, a concept, and a figure in the text, whose voice and vantage point in relation to death furthers the unreliability of the notion of time. These further challenge individuals’ understanding of complex scientific and philosophical views in a variety of ways. The science-fiction genre is essential when considering the speculative nature of It Goes On, which deals with parallel realities and is a fantastical exploration of human ingenuity in plausible futures. Therefore, this paper documents the research-led methodology used to create It Goes On, the application of the ‘many worlds’ theory within a framed narrative, and the many innovative techniques used to contribute new knowledge in a variety of fields.

Keywords: time, many-worlds theory, Heideggerian philosophy, framed narrative

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Authors: Pius Marthin, Nihal Ata Tutkun

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Survival analysis has become one of the paramount procedures in the modeling of time-to-event data. When we encounter complex survival problems, the traditional approach remains limited in accounting for the complex correlational structure between the covariates and the outcome due to the strong assumptions that limit the inference and prediction ability of the resulting models. Several studies exist on the deep learning approach to survival modeling; moreover, the application for the case of complex survival problems still needs to be improved. In addition, the existing models need to address the data structure's complexity fully and are subject to noise and redundant information. In this study, we design a deep learning technique (CmpXRnnSurv_AE) that obliterates the limitations imposed by traditional approaches and addresses the above issues to jointly predict the risk-specific probabilities and survival function for recurrent events with competing risks. We introduce the component termed Risks Information Weights (RIW) as an attention mechanism to compute the weighted cumulative incidence function (WCIF) and an external auto-encoder (ExternalAE) as a feature selector to extract complex characteristics among the set of covariates responsible for the cause-specific events. We train our model using synthetic and real data sets and employ the appropriate metrics for complex survival models for evaluation. As benchmarks, we selected both traditional and machine learning models and our model demonstrates better performance across all datasets.

Keywords: cumulative incidence function (CIF), risk information weight (RIW), autoencoders (AE), survival analysis, recurrent events with competing risks, recurrent neural networks (RNN), long short-term memory (LSTM), self-attention, multilayers perceptrons (MLPs)

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Authors: Jessy Mattar, Mohamad Turk, Maurice Nonus, Nikolai Lebovka, Henri El Zakhem, Eugene Vorobiev

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The effects of electro-stimulation of S. cerevisiae cells in colloidal suspension by Pulsed Electric Fields ‎‎(PEF) with electric field strength E = 20 – 2000 V.cm-1 and effective PEF treatment time tPEF = 10^−5 – 1 s were ‎investigated. The applied experimental procedure includes variations in the preliminary fermentation time and ‎electro-stimulation by PEF-treatment. Plate counting was performed.‎ At relatively high electric fields (E ≥ 1000 V.cm-1) and moderate PEF treatment time (tPEF > 100 µs), the ‎extraction of ionic components from yeast was observed by conductivity measurements, which can be related to ‎electroporation of cell membranes. Cell counting revealed a dependency of the colonies’ size on the time of ‎preliminary fermentation tf and the power consumption W, however no dependencies were noticeable by varying the initial yeast concentration in the treated suspensions.‎

Keywords: intensification, yeast, fermentation, electroporation, biotechnology

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Authors: Habtamu Ayenew Asegie

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Wealth, as opposed to income or consumption, implies a more stable and permanent status. Due to natural and human-made difficulties, households' economies will be diminished, and their well-being will fall into trouble. Hence, governments and humanitarian agencies offer considerable resources for poverty and malnutrition reduction efforts. One key factor in the effectiveness of such efforts is the accuracy with which low-income or poor populations can be identified. As a result, this study aims to predict a household’s wealth status using ensemble Machine learning (ML) algorithms. In this study, design science research methodology (DSRM) is employed, and four ML algorithms, Random Forest (RF), Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost), Light Gradient Boosted Machine (LightGBM), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), have been used to train models. The Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) dataset is accessed for this purpose from the Central Statistical Agency (CSA)'s database. Various data pre-processing techniques were employed, and the model training has been conducted using the scikit learn Python library functions. Model evaluation is executed using various metrics like Accuracy, Precision, Recall, F1-score, area under curve-the receiver operating characteristics (AUC-ROC), and subjective evaluations of domain experts. An optimal subset of hyper-parameters for the algorithms was selected through the grid search function for the best prediction. The RF model has performed better than the rest of the algorithms by achieving an accuracy of 96.06% and is better suited as a solution model for our purpose. Following RF, LightGBM, XGBoost, and AdaBoost algorithms have an accuracy of 91.53%, 88.44%, and 58.55%, respectively. The findings suggest that some of the features like ‘Age of household head’, ‘Total children ever born’ in a family, ‘Main roof material’ of their house, ‘Region’ they lived in, whether a household uses ‘Electricity’ or not, and ‘Type of toilet facility’ of a household are determinant factors to be a focal point for economic policymakers. The determinant risk factors, extracted rules, and designed artifact achieved 82.28% of the domain expert’s evaluation. Overall, the study shows ML techniques are effective in predicting the wealth status of households.

Keywords: ensemble machine learning, households wealth status, predictive model, wealth status prediction

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Authors: Nagi Mekhiel

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Many applications use vector operations by applying single instruction to multiple data that map to different locations in conventional memory. Transferring data from memory is limited by access latency and bandwidth affecting the performance gain of vector processing. We present a memory system that makes all of its content available to processors in time so that processors need not to access the memory, we force each location to be available to all processors at a specific time. The data move in different orbits to become available to other processors in higher orbits at different time. We use this memory to apply parallel vector operations to data streams at first orbit level. Data processed in the first level move to upper orbit one data element at a time, allowing a processor in that orbit to apply another vector operation to deal with serial code limitations inherited in all parallel applications and interleaved it with lower level vector operations.

Keywords: Memory Organization, Parallel Processors, Serial Code, Vector Processing

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Authors: M. Bahari Mehrabani, Hua-Peng Chen

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Management and maintenance of coastal defence structures during the expected life cycle have become a real challenge for decision makers and engineers. Accurate evaluation of the current condition and future performance of flood defence structures is essential for effective practical maintenance strategies on the basis of available field inspection data. Moreover, as coastal defence structures age, it becomes more challenging to implement maintenance and management plans to avoid structural failure. Therefore, condition inspection data are essential for assessing damage and forecasting deterioration of ageing flood defence structures in order to keep the structures in an acceptable condition. The inspection data for flood defence structures are often collected using discrete visual condition rating schemes. In order to evaluate future condition of the structure, a probabilistic deterioration model needs to be utilised. However, existing deterioration models may not provide a reliable prediction of performance deterioration for a long period due to uncertainties. To tackle the limitation, a time-dependent condition-based model associated with a transition probability needs to be developed on the basis of condition grade scheme for flood defences. This paper presents a probabilistic method for predicting future performance deterioration of coastal flood defence structures based on condition grading inspection data and deterioration curves estimated by expert judgement. In condition-based deterioration modelling, the main task is to estimate transition probability matrices. The deterioration process of the structure related to the transition states is modelled according to Markov chain process, and a reliability-based approach is used to estimate the probability of structural failure. Visual inspection data according to the United Kingdom Condition Assessment Manual are used to obtain the initial condition grade curve of the coastal flood defences. The initial curves then modified in order to develop transition probabilities through non-linear regression based optimisation algorithms. The Monte Carlo simulations are then used to evaluate the future performance of the structure on the basis of the estimated transition probabilities. Finally, a case study is given to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method under no-maintenance and medium-maintenance scenarios. Results show that the proposed method can provide an effective predictive model for various situations in terms of available condition grading data. The proposed model also provides useful information on time-dependent probability of failure in coastal flood defences.

Keywords: condition grading, flood defense, performance assessment, stochastic deterioration modelling

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Authors: M. O. Olayiwola

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Numerical solutions of the generalized Burger-Fisher are obtained using a Modified Variational Iteration Method (MVIM) with minimal computational efforts. The computed results with this technique have been compared with other results. The present method is seen to be a very reliable alternative method to some existing techniques for such nonlinear problems.

Keywords: burger-fisher, modified variational iteration method, lagrange multiplier, Taylor’s series, partial differential equation

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Authors: Kaewkarn Phuangsombat, Arthit Phuangsombat, Anupun Terdwongworakul

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Hard seeds will not grow and can cause mold in sprouting process. Thus, the hard seeds need to be separated from the normal seeds. Near infrared hyperspectral imaging in a range of 900 to 1700 nm was implemented to develop a model by partial least squares discriminant analysis to discriminate the hard seeds from the normal seeds. The orientation of the seeds was also studied to compare the performance of the models. The model based on hilum-up orientation achieved the best result giving the coefficient of determination of 0.98, and root mean square error of prediction of 0.07 with classification accuracy was equal to 100%.

Keywords: mung bean, near infrared, germinatability, hard seed

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Authors: Sonia Ben Hamza, Sabra Habli, Nejla Mahjoub Said, Hervé Bournot, Georges Le Palec

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In this work, we determine the turbulent dynamic structure of pollutant dispersion in two-phase free surface flow. The numerical simulation was performed using ANSYS Fluent. The flow study is three-dimensional, unsteady and isothermal. The study area has been endowed with a rectangular obstacle to analyze its influence on the hydrodynamic variables and progression of the pollutant. The numerical results show that the hydrodynamic model provides prediction of the dispersion of a pollutant in an open channel flow and reproduces the recirculation and trapping the pollutant downstream near the obstacle.

Keywords: CFD, free surface, polluant dispersion, turbulent flows

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Authors: Ekta Jain, Kalpana Dahiya, Vanita Verma

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This paper discusses a priority based imbalanced time minimization assignment problem dealing with the allocation of n jobs to m < n persons in which the project is carried out in two stages, viz. Stage-I and Stage-II. Stage-I consists of n1 ( < m) primary jobs and Stage-II consists of remaining (n-n1) secondary jobs which are commenced only after primary jobs are finished. Each job is to be allocated to exactly one person, and each person has to do at least one job. It is assumed that nature of the Stage-I jobs is such that one person can do exactly one primary job whereas a person can do more than one secondary job in Stage-II. In a particular stage, all persons start doing the jobs simultaneously, but if a person is doing more than one job, he does them one after the other in any order. The aim of the proposed study is to find the feasible assignment which minimizes the total time for the two stage execution of the project. For this, an iterative algorithm is proposed, which at each iteration, solves a constrained imbalanced time minimization assignment problem to generate a pair of Stage-I and Stage-II times. For solving this constrained problem, an algorithm is developed in the current paper. Later, alternate combinations based method to solve the priority based imbalanced problem is also discussed and a comparative study is carried out. Numerical illustrations are provided in support of the theory.

Keywords: assignment, imbalanced, priority, time minimization

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Authors: Gilad Padva, Sigal Barak Brandes

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This research centers on an unexpected Israeli advertising campaign for Elemento, a local furniture company, which eroticizes male nudity. The discussed campaign includes a series of printed ads that depict naked male models in effeminate positions. This campaign included a series of ads published in Haaretz, a small-scaled yet highly prestigious daily newspaper which is typically read by urban middle-upper-class left-winged Israelis. Apparently, this campaign embodies an alternative masculinity that challenges the prevalent machismo in Israeli society and advertising. Although some of the ads focus on young men in effeminate positions, they never expose their genitals and anuses, and their bodies are never permeable. The 2010s Elemento male models are seemingly contrasted to conventional representation of manhood in contemporary mainstream advertising. They display a somewhat inactive, passive and self-indulgent masculinity which involves 'conspicuous leisure'. In the process of commodity fetishism, the advertised furniture are emptied of the original meaning of their production, and then filled with new meanings in ways that both mystify the product and turn it into a fetish object. Yet, our research critically reconsiders this sensational campaign as sophisticated patriarchal parody that does not subvert but rather reconfirms and even fetishizes patriarchal premises; it parodizes effeminacy rather than the prevalent (Israeli) machismo. Following Pierre Bourdieu's politics of cultural taste, our research reconsiders and criticizes the male models' domesticated masculinity in a fantasized and cosmopolitan hedonistic habitus. Notwithstanding, we suggest that the Elemento campaign, despite its conformity, does question some Israeli and global axioms about gender roles, corporeal ideologies, idealized bodies, and domesticated phalluses and anuses. Although the naked truth is uncovered by this campaign, it does erect a vibrant discussion of contemporary masculinities and their exploitation in current mass consumption.

Keywords: male body, campaign, advertising, gender studies, men's studies, Israeli culture, masculinity, parody, effeminacy

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Authors: Ahmet Karakuş, Akif Can Kilic, Emre Alptekin

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A growing number of studies have been conducted to determine how well-being may be predicted using well-designed models. It is necessary to investigate the backgrounds of features in order to construct a viable Subjective Well-Being (SWB) model. We have picked the suitable variables from the literature on SWB that are acceptable for real-world data instructions. The goal of this work is to evaluate the model by feeding it with SWB characteristics and then categorizing the stress levels using machine learning methods to see how well it performs on a real dataset. Despite the fact that it is a multiclass classification issue, we have achieved significant metric scores, which may be taken into account for a specific task.

Keywords: machine learning, multiclassification problem, subjective well-being, perceived stress scale

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Authors: Meng Su

Abstract:

High-dimensional data analysis often presents challenges in capturing the complex, nonlinear relationships and manifold structures inherent to the data. This article presents a novel approach that leverages the strengths of two powerful techniques, Diffusion Maps and Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DPMs), to address these challenges. By integrating the dimensionality reduction capability of Diffusion Maps with the data modeling ability of DPMs, the proposed method aims to provide a comprehensive solution for analyzing and generating high-dimensional data. The Diffusion Map technique preserves the nonlinear relationships and manifold structure of the data by mapping it to a lower-dimensional space using the eigenvectors of the graph Laplacian matrix. Meanwhile, DPMs capture the dependencies within the data, enabling effective modeling and generation of new data points in the low-dimensional space. The generated data points can then be mapped back to the original high-dimensional space, ensuring consistency with the underlying manifold structure. Through a detailed example implementation, the article demonstrates the potential of the proposed hybrid approach to achieve more accurate and effective modeling and generation of complex, high-dimensional data. Furthermore, it discusses possible applications in various domains, such as image synthesis, time-series forecasting, and anomaly detection, and outlines future research directions for enhancing the scalability, performance, and integration with other machine learning techniques. By combining the strengths of Diffusion Maps and DPMs, this work paves the way for more advanced and robust data analysis methods.

Keywords: diffusion maps, diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs), manifold learning, high-dimensional data analysis

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Authors: Lin Dong, Fei Shi

Abstract:

Based on the railway network and the principles of space syntax, the study attempts to reconstruct the spatial relationship of the passenger network connections from space and time perspective. According to the travel time data of main stations in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration obtained by the Internet, the topological drawing of railway network under different time sections is constructed. With the comprehensive index composed of connection and integration, the accessibility and network operation efficiency of the railway network in different time periods is calculated, while the fairness of the network is analyzed by the fairness indicators constructed with the integration and location entropy from the perspective of horizontal and vertical fairness respectively. From the analysis of the efficiency and fairness of the railway passenger transport network, the study finds: (1) There is a strong regularity in regional system accessibility change; (2) The problems of efficiency and fairness are different in different time periods; (3) The improvement of efficiency will lead to the decline of horizontal fairness to a certain extent, while from the perspective of vertical fairness, the supply-demand situation has changed smoothly with time; (4) The network connection efficiency of Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is higher than that of the western regions such as Anqing and Chizhou; (5) The marginalization of Nantong, Yancheng, Yangzhou, Taizhou is obvious. The study explores the application of spatial syntactic theory in regional traffic analysis, in order to provide a reference for the development of urban agglomeration transportation network.

Keywords: spatial syntax, the Yangtze River Delta, railway passenger time, efficiency and fairness

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Authors: Joseph Fitoussi, Mohammadali Shirinbayan, Abbas Tcharkhtchi

Abstract:

Due to material flow during processing, short fiber reinforced composites structures obtained by injection or compression molding generally present strong spatial microstructure variation. On the other hand, quasi-static, dynamic, and fatigue behavior of these materials are highly dependent on microstructure parameters such as fiber orientation distribution. Indeed, because of complex damage mechanisms, SFRC structures design is a key challenge for safety and reliability. In this paper, we propose a micromechanical model allowing prediction of damage behavior of real structures as a function of microstructure spatial distribution. To this aim, a statistical damage criterion including strain rate and fatigue effect at the local scale is introduced into a Mori and Tanaka model. A critical local damage state is identified, allowing fatigue life prediction. Moreover, the multi-scale model is coupled with an experimental intrinsic link between damage under monotonic loading and fatigue life in order to build an abacus giving Tsai-Wu failure criterion parameters as a function of microstructure and targeted fatigue life. On the other hand, the micromechanical damage model gives access to the evolution of the anisotropic stiffness tensor of SFRC submitted to complex thermomechanical loading, including quasi-static, dynamic, and cyclic loading with temperature and amplitude variations. Then, the latter is used to fill out microstructure dependent material cards in finite element analysis for design optimization in the case of complex loading history. The proposed methodology is illustrated in the case of a real automotive component made of sheet molding compound (PSA 3008 tailgate). The obtained results emphasize how the proposed micromechanical methodology opens a new path for the automotive industry to lighten vehicle bodies and thereby save energy and reduce gas emission.

Keywords: short fiber reinforced composite, structural design, damage, micromechanical modelling, fatigue, strain rate effect

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Authors: R. B. Mishra

Abstract:

Hidden Markov Model (HMM) has been used in prediction and determination of states that generate different neural activations as well as mental working conditions. This paper addresses two applications of HMM; one to determine the optimal sequence of states for two neural states: Active (AC) and Inactive (IA) for the three emission (observations) which are for No Working (NW), Waiting (WT) and Working (W) conditions of human beings. Another is for the determination of optimal sequence of intentionality i.e. Believe (B), Desire (D), and Intention (I) as the states and three observational sequences: NW, WT and W. The computational results are encouraging and useful.

Keywords: hiden markov model, believe desire intention, neural activation, simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 378

Authors: Samuel Munaf, Kevin Swingler, Franz Brülisauer, Anthony O’Hare, George Gunn, Aaron Reeves

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Web scraping and text mining are popular computer science methods deployed by public health researchers to augment traditional epidemiological surveillance. However, within veterinary disease surveillance, such techniques are still in the early stages of development and have not yet been fully utilised. This study presents an exploration into the utility of incorporating internet-based data to better understand the smallholder farming communities within Scotland by using online text extraction and the subsequent mining of this data. Web scraping of the livestock fora was conducted in conjunction with text mining of the data in search of common themes, words, and topics found within the text. Results from bi-grams and topic modelling uncover four main topics of interest within the data pertaining to aspects of livestock husbandry: feeding, breeding, slaughter, and disposal. These topics were found amongst both the poultry and pig sub-forums. Topic modeling appears to be a useful method of unsupervised classification regarding this form of data, as it has produced clusters that relate to biosecurity and animal welfare. Internet data can be a very effective tool in aiding traditional veterinary surveillance methods, but the requirement for human validation of said data is crucial. This opens avenues of research via the incorporation of other dynamic social media data, namely Twitter and Facebook/Meta, in addition to time series analysis to highlight temporal patterns.

Keywords: veterinary epidemiology, disease surveillance, infodemiology, infoveillance, smallholding, social media, web scraping, sentiment analysis, geolocation, text mining, NLP

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Authors: Li-hsing Shih, Tzu-hsun Yen

Abstract:

Because of the long-term commitment to net zero carbon emission, utility companies include more renewable energy supply, which generates electricity with time and weather restrictions. This leads to time-of-use electricity pricing to reflect the actual cost of energy supply. From an end-user point of view, better residential energy management is needed to incorporate the time-of-use prices and assist end users in scheduling their daily use of electricity. This study uses bi-criteria optimization methods to schedule daily energy consumption by minimizing the electricity cost and maximizing the comfort of end users. Different from most previous research, this study schedules users’ activities rather than household appliances to have better measures of users’ comfort/satisfaction. The relation between each activity and the use of different appliances could be defined by users. The comfort level is at the highest when the time and duration of an activity completely meet the user’s expectation, and the comfort level decreases when the time and duration do not meet expectations. A questionnaire survey was conducted to collect data for establishing regression models that describe users’ comfort levels when the execution time and duration of activities are different from user expectations. Six regression models representing the comfort levels for six types of activities were established using the responses to the questionnaire survey. A computer program is developed to evaluate electricity cost and the comfort level for each feasible schedule and then find the non-dominated schedules. The Epsilon constraint method is used to find the optimal schedule out of the non-dominated schedules. A hypothetical case is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach and the computer program. Using the program, users can obtain the optimal schedule of daily energy consumption by inputting the intended time and duration of activities and the given time-of-use electricity prices.

Keywords: bi-criteria optimization, energy consumption, time-of-use price, scheduling

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Authors: B. Afsharipoor, E. Nazemi

Abstract:

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are powerful tool for prediction which can be trained based on a set of examples and thus, it would be useful for nonlinear image processing. The present paper reviews several paper regarding applications of ANN in image processing to shed the light on advantage and disadvantage of ANNs in this field. Different steps in the image processing chain including pre-processing, enhancement, segmentation, object recognition, image understanding and optimization by using ANN are summarized. Furthermore, results on using multi artificial neural networks are presented.

Keywords: neural networks, image processing, segmentation, object recognition, image understanding, optimization, MANN

Procedia PDF Downloads 414

Authors: Mumtaz Ipek, Burak Erkayman

Abstract:

Due date is assigned as an input for scheduling problems. At the same time, due date is selected as a decision variable for real time scheduling applications. Correct determination of due dates increases shop floor performance and number of jobs completed on time. This subject has been mentioned widely in the literature. Moreover rules for due date determination have been developed from analytical analysis. When a job arrives to the shop floor, a due date is assigned for delivery. Various due date determination methods are used in the literature. In this study six different due date methods are implemented for a hypothetical dynamic job shop and the performances of the due date methods are compared.

Keywords: scheduling, dynamic job shop, due date assignment, management engineering

Procedia PDF Downloads 557