Search results for: numerical weather prediction

Authors: R. Zh. Abdukerim, D. A. Absatarova, A. T. Aitbayeva, M. A. Askarova, S. T. Turuspekova, E. V. Zhunus

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The resilience of agricultural systems at the global level to climate change and their ability to recover determines the prospects for food security on a global scale. Since climate change will lead to changes in temperatures, precipitation, weather conditions and mass outbreaks of harmful organisms. The issue of adaptation to climate change in the agricultural sector is one of the priorities of Kazakhstan's Development Strategy for the period up to 2050. Since Kazakhstan is an agroindustrial country in which agriculture plays an important economic role. Kazakhstan is the largest potato producer in Central Asia, accounting for about 60% of the total vegetable production, which determines the urgency of solving the problem of increasing yields and quality. The control harmful organisms plays an important role in solving this issue. Due to the fact that climate change can lead to an increase in the number of harmful organisms and, accordingly, to a complete loss of harvest.

Keywords: potato pests, Colorado potato beetle, soil pests, global climate change

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Authors: Sadaoui Djaouida

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In this paper, the predictive control method is proposed to control the synchronization of two perturbed satellites attitude motion. Based on delayed feedback control of continuous-time systems combines with the prediction-based method of discrete-time systems, this approach only needs a single controller to realize synchronization, which has considerable significance in reducing the cost and complexity for controller implementation.

Keywords: predictive control, synchronization, satellite attitude, control engineering

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Authors: Sayed Ahmed El Sayed, Osama M. Mesalhy, Mohamed A. Abdelatief

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A numerical study has been conducted to clarify fluid flow characteristics, pressure distributions, and skin friction coefficient over a wing-shaped tubes bundle in staggered arrangement with the placement of longitudinal fins (LF) at downstream position of the tube. The air-side Rea were at 1.8 x 103 to 9.7 x 103. The tubes bundle were employed with various fin height [hf] and fin thickness (δ) from (2 mm ≤ hf ≤ 12 mm) and (1.5 mm ≤ δ ≤ 3.5 mm) respectively at the considered Rea range. The flow pattern around the staggered wing-shaped tubes bundle was predicted using the commercial CFD FLUENT 6.3.26 software package. The distribution of average skin friction coefficient around wing-shaped tubes bundle is studied. Correlation of pressure drop coefficient Pdc and skin friction coefficient (Cf) in terms of Rea, design parameters for the studied cases were presented. Results indicated that the values of Pdc for hf = 6 mm are lower than these of NOF and hf = 2 mm by about 11 % and 13 % respectively for considered Rea range. Cf decreases as Rea increases. LFTH with hf = 6 mm offers lower form drag than that with hf = 12 mm and that of NOF. The lowest values of the pumping power are achieved for arrangements of hf = 6 mm for the considered Rea range. δ has negligible effect on skin friction coefficient, while has a slightly variation in ∆Pa. The wing-shaped tubes bundle heat exchanger with hf = 6 mm has the lowest values of ∆Pa, Pdc, Cf, and pumping power and hence the best performance comparing with the other bundles. Comparisons between the experimental and numerical results of the present study and those obtained by similar previous studies showed good agreements.

Keywords: longitudinal fins, skin friction, flow characteristics, FLUENT, wing-shaped tubes

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Authors: Xianglu Tang, Zhenxue Jiang, Zhuo Li

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Characterization of shale multi scale heterogeneity is an important part to evaluate size and space distribution of shale gas reservoirs in sedimentary basins. The origin of shale heterogeneity has always been a hot research topic for it determines shale micro characteristics description and macro quality reservoir prediction. Shale multi scale heterogeneity was discussed based on thin section observation, FIB-SEM, QEMSCAN, TOC, XRD, mercury intrusion porosimetry (MIP), and nitrogen adsorption analysis from 30 core samples in Silurian Longmaxi formation. Results show that shale heterogeneity can be characterized by pore structure and mineral composition. The heterogeneity of shale pore is showed by different size pores at nm-μm scale. Macropores (pore diameter > 50 nm) have a large percentage of pore volume than mesopores (pore diameter between 2~ 50 nm) and micropores (pore diameter < 2nm). However, they have a low specific surface area than mesopores and micropores. Fractal dimensions of the pores from nitrogen adsorption data are higher than 2.7, what are higher than 2.8 from MIP data, showing extremely complex pore structure. This complexity in pore structure is mainly due to the organic matter and clay minerals with complex pore network structures, and diagenesis makes it more complicated. The heterogeneity of shale minerals is showed by mineral grains, lamina, and different lithology at nm-km scale under the continuous changing horizon. Through analyzing the change of mineral composition at each scale, random arrangement of mineral equal proportion, seasonal climate changes, large changes of sedimentary environment, and provenance supply are considered to be the main reasons that cause shale minerals heterogeneity from microcosmic to macroscopic. Due to scale effect, the change of shale multi scale heterogeneity is a discontinuous process, and there is a transformation boundary between homogeneous and in homogeneous. Therefore, a shale multi scale heterogeneity changing model is established by defining four types of homogeneous unit at different scales, which can be used to guide the prediction of shale gas distribution from micro scale to macro scale.

Keywords: heterogeneity, homogeneous unit, multiscale, shale

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Authors: E. Manikandan, C. Chilambarasan, M. Sulthan Ariff Rahman, S. Kanagaraj, V. R. Sanal Kumar

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The noise regulations around the major airports and rocket launching stations due to the environmental concern have made jet noise a crucial problem in the present day aero-acoustics research. The three main acoustic sources in jet nozzles are aerodynamics noise, noise from craft systems and engine and mechanical noise. Note that the majority of engine noise is due to the jet noise coming out from the exhaust nozzle. The previous studies reveal that the potential of chevron nozzles for aircraft engines noise reduction is promising owing to the fact that the jet noise continues to be the dominant noise component, especially during take-off. In this paper parametric analytical studies have been carried out for optimizing the number of chevron lobes, the lobe length and tip shape, and the level of penetration of the chevrons into the flow over a variety of flow conditions for various aerospace applications. The numerical studies have been carried out using a validated steady 3D density based, SST k-ω turbulence model with enhanced wall functions. In the numerical study, a fully implicit finite volume scheme of the compressible, Navier–Stokes equations is employed. We inferred that the geometry optimization of an environmental friendly chevron nozzle with a suitable number of chevron lobes with aerodynamically efficient tip contours for facilitating silent exit flow will enable a commendable sound reduction without much thrust penalty while comparing with the conventional supersonic nozzles with same area ratio.

Keywords: chevron nozzle, jet acoustic level, jet noise suppression, shape optimization of chevron nozzles

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Authors: Vishnu Asokan, Zaid M. Paloba

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Flow over cavities is an important area of research due to the significant change in flow physics caused by cavity aspect ratio, free stream Mach number and the nature of upstream boundary layer approaching the cavity leading edge. Cavity flow finds application in aircraft wheel well, weapons bay, combustion chamber of scramjet engines, etc. These flows are highly unsteady, compressible and turbulent and it involves mass entrainment coupled with acoustics phenomenon. Variation of flow dynamics in an angled cavity with a heated and cooled pylon upstream to the cavity with spatial combinations of heat flux addition and removal to the wall studied numerically. The goal of study is to investigate the effect of energy addition, removal to the cavity walls and pylon cavity flow dynamics. Preliminary steady state numerical simulations on inclined cavities with heat addition have shown that wall pressure profiles, as well as the recirculation, are influenced by heat transfer to the compressible fluid medium. Such a hybrid control of cavity flow dynamics in the form of heat transfer and pylon geometry can open out greater opportunities in enhancement of mixing and flame holding requirements of supersonic combustors. Addition of pylon upstream to the cavity reduces the acoustic oscillations emanating from the geometry. A numerical unsteady analysis of supersonic flow past cavities exposed to cavity wall heating and cooling with heated and cooled pylon helps to get a clear idea about the oscillation suppression in the cavity. A Cavity of L/D 4 and aft wall angle 22 degree with an upstream pylon of h/D=1.5 mm with a wall angle 29 degree exposed to supersonic flow of Mach number 2 and heat flux of 40 W/cm² and -40 W/cm² modeled for the above study. In the preliminary study, the domain is modeled and validated numerically with a turbulence model of SST k-ω using an HLLC implicit scheme. Both qualitative and quantitative flow data extracted and analyzed using advanced CFD tools. Flow visualization is done using numerical Schlieren method as the fluid medium gives the density variation. The heat flux addition to the wall increases the secondary vortex size of the cavity and removal of energy leads to the reduction in vortex size. The flow field turbulence seems to be increasing at higher heat flux. The shear layer thickness increases as heat flux increases. The steady state analysis of wall pressure shows that there is variation on wall pressure as heat flux increases. Shift in frequency of unsteady wall pressure analysis is an interesting observation for the above study. The time averaged skin friction seems to be reducing at higher heat flux due to the variation in viscosity of fluid inside the cavity.

Keywords: energy addition, frequency shift, Numerical Schlieren, shear layer, vortex evolution

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Authors: Alastair Hales, Xi Jiang, Siming Zhang

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Numerical methods are used to generate vortices in a domain. Through considered design, two counter-rotating vortices may interact and effectively drive one another downstream. This phenomenon is comparable to the vortex interaction that occurs in a region immediately downstream from two counter-oscillating piezoelectric (PE) fan blades. PE fans are small blades clamped at one end and driven to oscillate at their first natural frequency by an extremely low powered actuator. In operation, the high oscillation amplitude and frequency generate sufficient blade tip speed through the surrounding air to create downstream air flow. PE fans are considered an ideal solution for low power hot spot cooling in a range of small electronic devices, but a single blade does not typically induce enough air flow to be considered a direct alternative to conventional air movers, such as axial fans. The development of face-to-face PE fan arrays containing multiple blades oscillating in counter-phase to one another is essential for expanding the range of potential PE fan applications regarding the cooling of power electronics. Even in an unoptimised state, these arrays are capable of moving air volumes comparable to axial fans with less than 50% of the power demand. Replicating the airflow generated by face-to-face PE fan arrays without including the actual blades in the model reduces the process’s computational demands and enhances the rate of innovation and development in the field. Vortices are generated at a defined inlet using a time-dependent velocity profile function, which pulsates the inlet air velocity magnitude. This induces vortex generation in the considered domain, and these vortices are shown to separate and propagate downstream in a regular manner. The generation and propagation of a single vortex are compared to an equivalent vortex generated from a PE fan blade in a previous experimental investigation. Vortex separation is found to be accurately replicated in the present numerical model. Additionally, the downstream trajectory of the vortices’ centres vary by just 10.5%, and size and strength of the vortices differ by a maximum of 10.6%. Through non-dimensionalisation, the numerical method is shown to be valid for PE fan blades with differing parameters to the specific case investigated. The thorough validation methods presented verify that the numerical model may be used to replicate vortex formation from an oscillating PE fans blade. An investigation is carried out to evaluate the effects of varying the distance between two PE fan blade, pitch. At small pitch, the vorticity in the domain is maximised, along with turbulence in the near vicinity of the inlet zones. It is proposed that face-to-face PE fan arrays, oscillating in counter-phase, should have a minimal pitch to optimally cool nearby heat sources. On the other hand, downstream airflow is maximised at a larger pitch, where the vortices can fully form and effectively drive one another downstream. As such, this should be implemented when bulk airflow generation is the desired result.

Keywords: piezoelectric fans, low energy cooling, vortex formation, computational fluid dynamics

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Authors: Badrun Taman

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This study aims to review the use of the Bengkulu Provincial Government Mess as the location of rukyatul hilal because its determination has not been carried out scientifically. There are three things that will be analyzed, namely geographical-astronomical conditions, the suitability of the location with ideal criteria, and the determination of the location of rukyatul hilal in accordance with regional conditions based on the results of the study. The research method used is qualitative with an astronomical geographical approach. The results showed that the factor that strengthened the disturbance from the weather aspect was the western sky horizon in the form of the Indian Ocean sea level. The potential for geographical disturbances on this horizon is high sea waves, relatively high sea breezes, and more seawater vapor due to sea surface temperatures and high air humidity. This study found new criteria for determining the location of the observation crescent. The criteria is the western horizon is not sea level (especially the Indian Ocean).

Keywords: criteria, location, Rukyatul Hilal, tropics, Indian ocean

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Authors: Mohammadreza Akbari, Pooya Soleimani Besheli, Reza Khalili, Davood Domiri Danji

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In this conference, our aims are accuracy, capabilities and power at solving of the complicated non-linear partial differential. Our purpose is to enhance the ability to solve the mentioned nonlinear differential equations at basic science and engineering field and similar issues with a simple and innovative approach. As we know most of engineering system behavior in practical are nonlinear process (especially basic science and engineering field, etc.) and analytical solving (no numeric) these problems are difficult, complex, and sometimes impossible like (Fluids and Gas wave, these problems can't solve with numeric method, because of no have boundary condition) accordingly in this symposium we are going to exposure an innovative approach which we have named it Akbari-Ganji's Method or AGM in engineering, that can solve sets of coupled nonlinear differential equations (ODE, PDE) with high accuracy and simple solution and so this issue will emerge after comparing the achieved solutions by Numerical method (Runge-Kutta 4th). Eventually, AGM method will be proved that could be created huge evolution for researchers, professors and students in whole over the world, because of AGM coding system, so by using this software we can analytically solve all complicated linear and nonlinear partial differential equations, with help of that there is no difficulty for solving all nonlinear differential equations. Advantages and ability of this method (AGM) as follow: (a) Non-linear Differential equations (ODE, PDE) are directly solvable by this method. (b) In this method (AGM), most of the time, without any dimensionless procedure, we can solve equation(s) by any boundary or initial condition number. (c) AGM method always is convergent in boundary or initial condition. (d) Parameters of exponential, Trigonometric and Logarithmic of the existent in the non-linear differential equation with AGM method no needs Taylor expand which are caused high solve precision. (e) AGM method is very flexible in the coding system, and can solve easily varieties of the non-linear differential equation at high acceptable accuracy. (f) One of the important advantages of this method is analytical solving with high accuracy such as partial differential equation in vibration in solids, waves in water and gas, with minimum initial and boundary condition capable to solve problem. (g) It is very important to present a general and simple approach for solving most problems of the differential equations with high non-linearity in engineering sciences especially at civil engineering, and compare output with numerical method (Runge-Kutta 4th) and Exact solutions.

Keywords: new approach, AGM, sets of coupled nonlinear differential equation, exact solutions, numerical

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Authors: Ismail Cengiz, Faruk Elaldi

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Within the scope of the study presented in this paper, load carrying capacity and buckling behavior of a stiffened aluminum panel designed by adopting current ‘buckle-resistant’ design application and ‘Post –Buckling’ design approach were investigated experimentally and numerically. The test specimen that is stabilized by Z-type stiffeners and manufactured from aluminum 2024 T3 Clad material was test under compression load. Buckling behavior was observed by means of 3 – dimensional digital image correlation (DIC) and strain gauge pairs. The experimental study was followed by developing an efficient and reliable finite element model whose ability to predict behavior of the stiffened panel used for compression test is verified by compering experimental and numerical results in terms of load – shortening curve, strain-load curves and buckling mode shapes. While finite element model was being constructed, non-linear behaviors associated with material and geometry was considered. Finally, applicability of aluminum stiffened panel in airframe design against to composite structures was evaluated thorough the concept of ‘Structural Efficiency’. This study reveals that considerable amount of weight saving could be gained if the concept of ‘post-buckling design’ is preferred to the already conventionally used ‘buckle resistant design’ concept in aircraft industry without scarifying any of structural integrity under load spectrum.

Keywords: post-buckling, stiffened panel, non-linear finite element method, aluminum, structural efficiency

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Authors: Abdallah M. Fayed

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The study area is located in south Darb El Arbaieen, western desert of Egypt. It occupies the area between latitudes 22° 00/ and 22° 30/ North and Longitudes 29° 30/ and 30° 00/ East, from southern border of Egypt to the area north Bir Kuraiym and from the area East of East Owienat to the area west Tushka district, its area about 2750 Km2. The famous features; southern part of Darb El Arbaieen road, G Baraqat El Scab El Qarra, Bir Dibis, Bir El Shab and Bir Kuraiym, Interpretation of soil stratification shows layers that are related to Quaternary and Upper-Lower Cretaceous eras. It is dissected by a series of NE-SW striking faults. The regional groundwater flow direction is in SW-NE direction with a hydraulic gradient is 1m / 2km. Mathematical model program has been applied for evaluation of groundwater potentials in the main Aquifer –Nubian Sandstone- in the area of study and Remote sensing technique is considered powerful, accurate and saving time in this respect. These techniques are widely used for illustrating and analysis different phenomenon such as the new development in the desert (land reclamation), residential development (new communities), urbanization, etc. The major issues concerning water development objective of this work is to determine the new development areas in western desert of Egypt during the period from 2003 to 2015 using remote sensing technique, the impacts of the present and future development have been evaluated by using the two-dimensional numerical groundwater flow Simulation Package (visual modflow 4.2). The package was used to construct and calibrate a numerical model that can be used to simulate the response of the aquifer in the study area under implementing different management alternatives in the form of changes in piezometric levels and salinity. Total period of simulation is 100 years. After steady state calibration, two different scenarios are simulated for groundwater development. 21 production wells are installed at the study area and used in the model, with the total discharge for the two scenarios were 105000 m3/d, 210000 m3/d. The drawdown was 11.8 m and 23.7 m for the two scenarios in the end of 100 year. Contour maps for water heads and drawdown and hydrographs for piezometric head are represented. The drawdown was less than the half of the saturated thickness (the safe yield case).

Keywords: remote sensing, management of aquifer systems, simulation modeling, western desert, South Darb El Arbaieen

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Authors: Marilyn Painagan

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This study was conducted to predict the potential geographical distribution of the banana aphid (Pentalonia negronervosa) in North Cotabato through climate envelope approach of DIVA-GIS, a software for analyzing the distribution of organisms to elucidate geographic and ecological patterns. A WorldClim database that was based on weather conditions recorded last 1950 to 2000 with a spatial resolution of approximately 1x1 km. was used in the bioclimatic modelling, this database includes temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration and bioclimatic variables which was measured at many different locations, a bioclimatic modelling was done in the study. The study revealed that the western part of Magpet and Arakan and the municipality of Antipas are at high potential risk of occurrence of banana aphid while it is not likely to occur in the municipalities of Aleosan, Midsayap, Pikit, M’lang and Tulunan. The result of this study can help developed strategies for monitoring and managing this serious pest of banana and to prepare a mitigation measures on those areas that are potential for future infestation.

Keywords: banana aphid, bioclimatic model, bunchy top, climatic envelope approach

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Authors: Mohamed Amine Ben Henni, Taher Hassaine Daouadji, Boussad Abbes, Yu Ming Li, Fazilay Abbes

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The reinforcement and repair of concrete structures by bonding composite materials have become relatively common operations. Different types of composite materials can be used: carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP), glass fiber reinforced polymer (GFRP) as well as functionally graded material (FGM). The development of analytical and numerical models describing the mechanical behavior of structures in civil engineering reinforced by composite materials is necessary. These models will enable engineers to select, design, and size adequate reinforcements for the various types of damaged structures. This study focuses on the free vibration behavior of orthotropic laminated composite plates using a refined shear deformation theory. In these models, the distribution of transverse shear stresses is considered as parabolic satisfying the zero-shear stress condition on the top and bottom surfaces of the plates without using shear correction factors. In this analysis, the equation of motion for simply supported thick laminated rectangular plates is obtained by using the Hamilton’s principle. The accuracy of the developed model is demonstrated by comparing our results with solutions derived from other higher order models and with data found in the literature. Besides, a finite-element analysis is used to calculate the natural frequencies of laminated composite plates and is compared with those obtained by the analytical approach.

Keywords: composites materials, laminated composite plate, finite-element analysis, free vibration

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Authors: Mokhlisur Rahman

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Ocean inhibits one of the most complex ecosystems on the planet that regulates the earth's climate and weather by providing us with compatible weather to live. Ocean provides food by extending various ways of lifestyles that are dependent on it, transportation by accommodating the world's biggest carriers, recreation by offering its beauty in many moods, and home to countless species. At the essence of receiving various forms of entertainment, consumers choose to be close to the ocean while performing many fun activities. Which, at some point, upsets the stomach of the ocean by threatening marine life and the environment. Consumers throw the waste into the ocean after using it. Most of them are plastics that float over the ocean and turn into thousands of micro pieces that are hard to observe with the naked eye but easily eaten by the sea species. Eventually, that conflicts with the natural consumption process of any living species, making them sick. This information is not known by most consumers who go to the sea or seashores occasionally to spend time, nor is it widely discussed, which creates an information gap among consumers. However, advertising is a powerful tool to educate people about ocean pollution. This abstract analyzes three major ocean-saving advertisement campaigns that use innovative and advanced technology to get maximum exposure. The study collects data from the selected campaigns' websites and retrieves all available content related to messages, videos, and images. First, the SeaLegacy campaign uses stunning images to create awareness among the people; they use social media content, videos, and other educational content. They create content and strategies to build an emotional connection among the consumers that encourage them to move on an action. All the messages in their campaign empower consumers by using powerful words. Second, Ocean Conservancy Campaign uses social media marketing, events, and educational content to protect the ocean from various pollutants, including plastics, climate change, and overfishing. They use powerful images and videos of marine life. Their mission is to create evidence-based solutions toward a healthy ocean. Their message includes the message regarding the local communities along with the sea species. Third, ocean clean-up is a campaign that applies strategies using innovative technologies to remove plastic waste from the ocean. They use social media, digital, and email marketing to reach people and raise awareness. They also use images and videos to evoke an emotional response to take action. These tree advertisements use realistic images, powerful words, and the presence of living species in the imagery presentation, which are eye-catching and can grow emotional connection among the consumers. Identifying the effectiveness of the messages these advertisements carry and their strategies highlights the knowledge gap of mass people between real pollution and its consequences, making the message more accessible to the mass of people. This study aims to provide insights into the effectiveness of ocean-saving advertisement campaigns and their impact on the public's awareness of ocean conservation. The findings from this study help shape future campaigns.

Keywords: advertising-campaign, content-creation, images ocean-saving technology, videos

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Authors: M. A. C. S. Sampath Fernando, James M. Curran, Renate Meyer

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Model assessment, in the Bayesian context, involves evaluation of the goodness-of-fit and the comparison of several alternative candidate models for predictive accuracy and improvements. In posterior predictive checks, the data simulated under the fitted model is compared with the actual data. Predictive model accuracy is estimated using information criteria such as the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC), the Deviance information criterion (DIC), and the Watanabe-Akaike information criterion (WAIC). The goal of an information criterion is to obtain an unbiased measure of out-of-sample prediction error. Since posterior checks use the data twice; once for model estimation and once for testing, a bias correction which penalises the model complexity is incorporated in these criteria. Cross-validation (CV) is another method used for examining out-of-sample prediction accuracy. Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV) is the most computationally expensive variant among the other CV methods, as it fits as many models as the number of observations. Importance sampling (IS), truncated importance sampling (TIS) and Pareto-smoothed importance sampling (PSIS) are generally used as approximations to the exact LOO-CV and utilise the existing MCMC results avoiding expensive computational issues. The reciprocals of the predictive densities calculated over posterior draws for each observation are treated as the raw importance weights. These are in turn used to calculate the approximate LOO-CV of the observation as a weighted average of posterior densities. In IS-LOO, the raw weights are directly used. In contrast, the larger weights are replaced by their modified truncated weights in calculating TIS-LOO and PSIS-LOO. Although, information criteria and LOO-CV are unable to reflect the goodness-of-fit in absolute sense, the differences can be used to measure the relative performance of the models of interest. However, the use of these measures is only valid under specific circumstances. This study has developed 11 models using normal, log-normal, gamma, and student’s t distributions to improve the PCR stutter prediction with forensic data. These models are comprised of four with profile-wide variances, four with locus specific variances, and three which are two-component mixture models. The mean stutter ratio in each model is modeled as a locus specific simple linear regression against a feature of the alleles under study known as the longest uninterrupted sequence (LUS). The use of AIC, BIC, DIC, and WAIC in model comparison has some practical limitations. Even though, IS-LOO, TIS-LOO, and PSIS-LOO are considered to be approximations of the exact LOO-CV, the study observed some drastic deviations in the results. However, there are some interesting relationships among the logarithms of pointwise predictive densities (lppd) calculated under WAIC and the LOO approximation methods. The estimated overall lppd is a relative measure that reflects the overall goodness-of-fit of the model. Parallel log-likelihood profiles for the models conditional on equal posterior variances in lppds were observed. This study illustrates the limitations of the information criteria in practical model comparison problems. In addition, the relationships among LOO-CV approximation methods and WAIC with their limitations are discussed. Finally, useful recommendations that may help in practical model comparisons with these methods are provided.

Keywords: cross-validation, importance sampling, information criteria, predictive accuracy

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Authors: Kamal Khan Abro, Attaullah Ansari, Mahpara Pirzada

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Hoverflies are commonly known as flower flies, sun flies or garden flies. Hoverflies are very important group of insects because their ecosystem services are diverse. They are an attractive group of insects with their striped abdomens. They are day-flying insects from small to large size, have worldwide distribution, but mostly prefer to live in relatively cold weather areas. In the world, about 6,000 species of 200 genera of two sub-families have been described. Their larvae exhibit a variety of feeding modes i.e. aphidophagous, saprophagous, zoophagous and Phytophagus, where adults are floral visitors of hundreds of different plants species. These floral resources enhance the longevity and fecundity of adult dipterous flies. Many syrphid species also have been documented as efficient crop pollinators. Aphids are commonly called plant louse, greenflies and blackflies. They are major pest of crops; about 4000 species of aphids have been described, feeding on 250 species of plants.

Keywords: host plant range, aphidophagous hoverflies, their prey aphids, Thatta Pakistan

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Authors: Ayhan Kucukmanisa, Orhan Akbulut, Oguzhan Urhan

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Nowadays, advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) have become popular, since they enable safe driving. Lane detection is a vital step for ADAS. The performance of the lane detection process is critical to obtain a high accuracy lane departure warning system (LDWS). Challenging factors such as road cracks, erosion of lane markings, weather conditions might affect the performance of a lane detection system. In this paper, 1-D weighted filter based on row filtering to detect lane marking is proposed. 2-D input image is filtered by 1-D weighted filter considering four-pixel values located symmetrically around the center of candidate pixel. Performance evaluation is carried out by two metrics which are true positive rate (TPR) and false positive rate (FPR). Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed approach provides better lane marking detection accuracy compared to the previous methods while providing real-time processing performance.

Keywords: lane marking filter, lane detection, ADAS, LDWS

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Authors: Mpho Mokoatle, Darlington Mapiye, James Mashiyane, Stephanie Muller, Gciniwe Dlamini

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Great advances in high-throughput sequencing technologies have resulted in availability of huge amounts of sequencing data in public and private repositories, enabling a holistic understanding of complex biological phenomena. Sequence data are used for a wide range of applications such as gene annotations, expression studies, personalized treatment and precision medicine. However, this rapid growth in sequence data poses a great challenge which calls for novel data processing and analytic methods, as well as huge computing resources. In this work, a machine and statistical learning approach for DNA sequence classification based on $k$-mer representation of sequence data is proposed. The approach is tested using whole genome sequences of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) isolates to (i) reduce the size of genomic sequence data, (ii) identify an optimum size of k-mers and utilize it to build classification models, (iii) predict the phenotype from whole genome sequence data of a given bacterial isolate, and (iv) demonstrate computing challenges associated with the analysis of whole genome sequence data in producing interpretable and explainable insights. The classification models were trained on 104 whole genome sequences of MTB isoloates. Cluster analysis showed that k-mers maybe used to discriminate phenotypes and the discrimination becomes more concise as the size of k-mers increase. The best performing classification model had a k-mer size of 10 (longest k-mer) an accuracy, recall, precision, specificity, and Matthews Correlation coeffient of 72.0%, 80.5%, 80.5%, 63.6%, and 0.4 respectively. This study provides a comprehensive approach for resampling whole genome sequencing data, objectively selecting a k-mer size, and performing classification for phenotype prediction. The analysis also highlights the importance of increasing the k-mer size to produce more biological explainable results, which brings to the fore the interplay that exists amongst accuracy, computing resources and explainability of classification results. However, the analysis provides a new way to elucidate genetic information from genomic data, and identify phenotype relationships which are important especially in explaining complex biological mechanisms.

Keywords: AWD-LSTM, bootstrapping, k-mers, next generation sequencing

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Authors: Darlington Mapiye, Mpho Mokoatle, James Mashiyane, Stephanie Muller, Gciniwe Dlamini

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Great advances in high-throughput sequencing technologies have resulted in availability of huge amounts of sequencing data in public and private repositories, enabling a holistic understanding of complex biological phenomena. Sequence data are used for a wide range of applications such as gene annotations, expression studies, personalized treatment and precision medicine. However, this rapid growth in sequence data poses a great challenge which calls for novel data processing and analytic methods, as well as huge computing resources. In this work, a machine and statistical learning approach for DNA sequence classification based on k-mer representation of sequence data is proposed. The approach is tested using whole genome sequences of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) isolates to (i) reduce the size of genomic sequence data, (ii) identify an optimum size of k-mers and utilize it to build classification models, (iii) predict the phenotype from whole genome sequence data of a given bacterial isolate, and (iv) demonstrate computing challenges associated with the analysis of whole genome sequence data in producing interpretable and explainable insights. The classification models were trained on 104 whole genome sequences of MTB isoloates. Cluster analysis showed that k-mers maybe used to discriminate phenotypes and the discrimination becomes more concise as the size of k-mers increase. The best performing classification model had a k-mer size of 10 (longest k-mer) an accuracy, recall, precision, specificity, and Matthews Correlation coeffient of 72.0 %, 80.5 %, 80.5 %, 63.6 %, and 0.4 respectively. This study provides a comprehensive approach for resampling whole genome sequencing data, objectively selecting a k-mer size, and performing classification for phenotype prediction. The analysis also highlights the importance of increasing the k-mer size to produce more biological explainable results, which brings to the fore the interplay that exists amongst accuracy, computing resources and explainability of classification results. However, the analysis provides a new way to elucidate genetic information from genomic data, and identify phenotype relationships which are important especially in explaining complex biological mechanisms

Keywords: AWD-LSTM, bootstrapping, k-mers, next generation sequencing

Procedia PDF Downloads 164

Authors: K. Kusakana

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A hybrid energy system is a combination of renewable energy sources with back up, as well as a storage system used to respond to given load energy requirements. Given that the electrical output of each renewable source is fluctuating with changes in weather conditions, and since the load demand also varies with time; one of the main attributes of hybrid systems is to be able to respond to the load demand at any time by optimally controlling each energy source, storage and back-up system. The induced optimization problem is to compute the optimal operation control of the system with the aim of minimizing operation costs while efficiently and reliably responding to the load energy requirement. Current optimization research and development on hybrid systems are mainly focusing on the sizing aspect. Thus, the aim of this paper is to report on the state-of-the-art of optimal operation control of hybrid renewable energy systems. This paper also discusses different challenges encountered, as well as future developments that can help in improving the optimal operation control of hybrid renewable energy systems.

Keywords: renewable energies, hybrid systems, optimization, operation control

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Authors: Fadwa Alaskar, Fang-Chieh Chou, Carlos Flores, Xiao-Yun Lu, Alexandre M. Bayen

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This article proposes a perception model for enhancing the accuracy and stability of car-following control of a longitudinally automated truck. We applied a fusion-based tracking algorithm on measurements of a single preceding vehicle needed for car-following control. This algorithm fuses two types of data, radar and LiDAR data, to obtain more accurate and robust longitudinal perception of the subject vehicle in various weather conditions. The filter’s resulting signals are fed to the gap control algorithm at every tracking loop composed by a high-level gap control and lower acceleration tracking system. Several highway tests have been performed with two trucks. The tests show accurate and fast tracking of the target, which impacts on the gap control loop positively. The experiments also show the fulfilment of control design requirements, such as fast speed variations tracking and robust time gap following.

Keywords: object tracking, perception, sensor fusion, adaptive cruise control, cooperative adaptive cruise control

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Authors: Abdulmalek Ahmed

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Formation pressure is the main function that affects drilling operation economically and efficiently. Knowing the pore pressure and the parameters that affect it will help to reduce the cost of drilling process. Many empirical models reported in the literature were used to calculate the formation pressure based on different parameters. Some of these models used only drilling parameters to estimate pore pressure. Other models predicted the formation pressure based on log data. All of these models required different trends such as normal or abnormal to predict the pore pressure. Few researchers applied artificial intelligence (AI) techniques to predict the formation pressure by only one method or a maximum of two methods of AI. The objective of this research is to predict the pore pressure based on both drilling parameters and log data namely; weight on bit, rotary speed, rate of penetration, mud weight, bulk density, porosity and delta sonic time. A real field data is used to predict the formation pressure using five different artificial intelligence (AI) methods such as; artificial neural networks (ANN), radial basis function (RBF), fuzzy logic (FL), support vector machine (SVM) and functional networks (FN). All AI tools were compared with different empirical models. AI methods estimated the formation pressure by a high accuracy (high correlation coefficient and low average absolute percentage error) and outperformed all previous. The advantage of the new technique is its simplicity, which represented from its estimation of pore pressure without the need of different trends as compared to other models which require a two different trend (normal or abnormal pressure). Moreover, by comparing the AI tools with each other, the results indicate that SVM has the advantage of pore pressure prediction by its fast processing speed and high performance (a high correlation coefficient of 0.997 and a low average absolute percentage error of 0.14%). In the end, a new empirical correlation for formation pressure was developed using ANN method that can estimate pore pressure with a high precision (correlation coefficient of 0.998 and average absolute percentage error of 0.17%).

Keywords: Artificial Intelligence (AI), Formation pressure, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Fuzzy Logic (FL), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Functional Networks (FN), Radial Basis Function (RBF)

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Authors: Waqed H. Almohammed, Mohammed Y. Fattah, Sajjad E. Rasheed

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Dynamic traffic loads cause deformation of underground pipes, resulting in vehicle discomfort. This makes it necessary to reinforce the layers of soil above underground pipes. In this study, the subbase layer was reinforced. Finite element software (PLAXIS 3D) was used to in the simulation, which includes geocell reinforcement, vehicle loading, soil layers and Glass Fiber Reinforced Plastic (GRP) pipe. Geocell reinforcement was modeled using a geogrid element, which was defined as a slender structure element that has the ability to withstand axial stresses but not to resist bending. Geogrids cannot withstand compression but they can withstand tensile forces. Comparisons have been made between the numerical models and experimental works, and a good agreement was obtained. Using the mathematical model, the performance of three different pipes of diameter 600 mm, 800 mm, and 1000 mm, and three different vehicular speeds of 20 km/h, 40 km/h, and 60 km/h, was examined to determine their impact on surface settlement and vertical pressure at the pipe crown for two cases: with and without geocell reinforcement. The results showed that, for a pipe diameter of 600 mm under geocell reinforcement, surface settlement decreases by 94 % when the speed of the vehicle is 20 km/h and by 98% when the speed of the vehicle is 60 km/h. Vertical pressure decreases by 81 % when the diameter of the pipe is 600 mm, while the value decreases to 58 % for a pipe with diameter 1000 mm. The results show that geocell reinforcement causes a significant and positive reduction in surface settlement and vertical stress above the pipe crown, leading to an increase in pipe safety.

Keywords: dynamic loading, finite element, geocell-reinforcement, GRP pipe, PLAXIS 3D, surface settlement

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Authors: Fangliang Chen, Yihe Huang, Tejav Deganyar, Anselm Boehm, Hamid Batoul

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With growing population density and further urbanization, the average noise level in cities is increasing. Excessive noise is not only annoying but also leads to a negative impact on human health. To deal with the increasing city noise, environmental regulations bring up higher standards on acoustic comfort in buildings by mitigating the noise transmission from building envelope exterior to interior. Framed window, door and façade systems are the leading choice for modern fenestration construction, which provides demonstrated quality of weathering reliability, environmental efficiency, and installation ease. The overall sound insulation of such systems depends both on glasses and frames, where glass usually covers the majority of the exposed surfaces, thus it is the main source of sound energy transmission. While frames in modern façade systems become slimmer for aesthetic appearance, which contribute to a minimal percentage of exposed surfaces. Nevertheless, frames might provide substantial transmission paths for sound travels through because of much less mass crossing the path, thus becoming more critical in limiting the acoustic performance of the whole system. There are various methodologies and numerical programs that can accurately predict the acoustic performance of either glasses or frames. However, due to the vast variance of size and dimension between frame and glass in the same system, there is no satisfactory theoretical approach or affordable simulation tool in current practice to access the over acoustic performance of a whole façade system. For this reason, laboratory test turns out to be the only reliable source. However, laboratory test is very time consuming and high costly, moreover different lab might provide slightly different test results because of varieties of test chambers, sample mounting, and test operations, which significantly constrains the early phase design of framed façade systems. To address this dilemma, this study provides an effective analytical methodology to predict the acoustic performance of framed façade systems, based on vast amount of acoustic test results on glass, frame and the whole façade system consist of both. Further test results validate the current model is able to accurately predict the overall sound transmission loss of a framed system as long as the acoustic behavior of the frame is available. Though the presented methodology is mainly developed from façade systems with aluminum frames, it can be easily extended to systems with frames of other materials such as steel, PVC or wood.

Keywords: city noise, building facades, sound mitigation, sound transmission loss, framed façade system

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Authors: Angela Oktavia Suryani, Bernadeth Gloria, Edwin Sutamto, Jessica Kristianty, Ni Made Rai Sapitri, Patricia Catherine Agla, Sitti Arlinda Rochiadi

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It was found that some blogs or personal websites in Indonesia sell standardized intelligence tests (for example, Progressive Matrices (PM), Intelligence Structure Test (IST), and Culture Fair Intelligence Test (CFIT)) and other psychological tests, together with the manual and the key answers for public. Individuals can buy and prepare themselves for selection or recruitment with the real test. This action drives people to lie to the institution (education or company) and also to themselves. It was also found that those tests are old. Some items are not relevant with the current context, for example a question about a diameter of a certain coin that does not exist anymore. These problems motivate us to develop a new intelligence battery test, namely of Multiple Aptitude Battery (MAB). The battery test was built by using Thurstone’s Primary Mental Abilities theory and intended to be used by high schools students, university students, and worker applicants. The battery tests consist of 9 subtests. In the current study we examine six subtests, namely Reading Comprehension, Verbal Analogies, Numerical Inductive Reasoning, Numerical Deductive Reasoning, Mechanical Ability, and Two Dimensional Spatial Reasoning for university students. The study included 1424 data from students recruited by convenience sampling from eight faculties at Atma Jaya Catholic University of Indonesia. Classical and modern test approaches (Item Response Theory) were carried out to identify the item difficulties of the items and confirmatory factor analysis was applied to examine their internal validities. The validity of each subtest was inspected by using convergent–discriminant method, whereas the reliability was examined by implementing Kuder–Richardson formula. The result showed that the majority of the subtests were difficult in medium level, and there was only one subtest categorized as easy, namely Verbal Analogies. The items were found homogenous and valid measuring their constructs; however at the level of subtests, the construct validity examined by convergent-discriminant method indicated that the subtests were not unidimensional. It means they were not only measuring their own constructs but also other construct. Three of the subtests were able to predict academic performance with small effect size, namely Reading Comprehension, Numerical Inductive Reasoning, and Two Dimensional Spatial Reasoning. GPAs in intermediate level (GPAs at third semester and above) were considered as a factor for predictive invalidity. The Kuder-Richardson formula showed that the reliability coefficients for both numerical reasoning subtests and spatial reasoning were superior, in the range 0.84 – 0.87, whereas the reliability coefficient for the other three subtests were relatively below standard for ability test, in the range of 0.65 – 0.71. It can be concluded that some of the subtests are ready to be used, whereas some others are still need some revisions. This study also demonstrated that the convergent-discrimination method is useful to identify the general intelligence of human.

Keywords: intelligence, psychometric examination, multiple aptitude battery, university students

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Authors: Syed Ali Shahbaz Shah

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In the last few years, Bituminous Asphaltic roads are becoming popular day by day in the world. Plenty of research has been carried out to identify many advantages like safety, environmental effects, and comfort. Some other benefits are minimal noise and skid resistance enhancement. Besides the benefits of asphaltic roads, the permeable structure of the road also causes some distress, and raveling is one of the crucial defects. The main reason behind this distress is the failure of adhesion between bitumen mortar, specifically due to excessive load from heavy traffic. The main focus of this study is to identify the root cause and propose both the long-term and the short-term solutions of raveling on a specific road section depicting the overall road situation from the bridge of Kahuta road towards the intersection of the Islamabad express highway. The methodology adopted for this purpose is visual inspections in-situ. It was noted that there were chunks of debris on the road surface, which indicates that the asphalt binder is aged the most probably. Further laboratory testing would confirm that either asphalt binder is aged or inadequate compaction was adept during cold weather paving.

Keywords: asphaltic roads, asphalt binder, distress, raveling

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Authors: Dagaci Aliyu Manbe, Anthony Abah Ebonyi

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The increase in global temperatures is worsened by frequent natural events and human activities. Climate change has taken a prominent space in the global discourse on crime and criminality. Compared to when the subject centred around the discussion on the depletion of the ozone layer and global warming, today, the narrative revolves around the implications of changes in weather and climatic conditions in relations to violent crimes or conflict that traverse vast social, economic, and political spaces in different countries. Global warming and climate change refer to an increase in average global temperatures in the Earth’s near-surface air and oceans, which occurs due to human activities such as deforestation and the burning of fossil fuel such as gas flaring. The trend is projected to continue, if unchecked. This paper seeks to explore the nexus between climate change and criminality in Nigeria. It further examines the main ecological changes that predispose conflict dynamics of security threats factored by climate change to peaceful co-existence in Nigeria. It concludes with some recommendations on the way forward.

Keywords: conflict, climate change, criminality, global warning, peace

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Authors: Sultan Al Shafian, Mozaher Ul Kabir, Khondoker Istiak Ahmad, Masnun Abrar, Mahfuza Khanum, Hossain M. Shahin

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For structural evaluation of shallow foundation, the modulus of subgrade reaction is one of the most widely used and accepted parameter for its ease of calculations. To determine this parameter, one of the most common field method is Plate Load test method. In this field test method, the subgrade modulus is considered for a specific location and according to its application, it is assumed that the displacement occurred in one place does not affect other adjacent locations. For this kind of assumptions, the modulus of subgrade reaction sometimes forced the engineers to overdesign the underground structure, which eventually results in increasing the cost of the construction and sometimes failure of the structure. In the present study, the settlement of a shallow foundation has been analyzed using both conventional and numerical analysis. Around 25 plate load tests were conducted on a sand fill site in Bangladesh to determine the Modulus of Subgrade reaction of ground which is later used to design a shallow foundation considering different depth. After the collection of the field data, the field condition was appropriately simulated in a finite element software. Finally results obtained from both the conventional and numerical approach has been compared. A significant difference has been observed in the case of settlement while comparing the results. A proper correlation has also been proposed at the end of this research work between the two methods of in order to provide the most efficient way to calculate the subgrade modulus of the ground for designing the shallow foundation.

Keywords: modulus of subgrade reaction, shallow foundation, finite element analysis, settlement, plate load test

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Authors: Salah E. El-Metwally, Marwan Abdo, Basem Abdel Wahed

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Fiber-reinforced polymer (FRP) bars have been proposed as an alternative to conventional steel bars; hence, the use of these non-corrosive and nonmetallic reinforcing bars has increased in various concrete projects. This concrete material is lightweight, has a long lifespan, and needs minor maintenance; however, its non-ductile nature and weak bond with the surrounding concrete create a significant challenge. The behavior of concrete elements reinforced with FRP bars has been the subject of several experimental investigations, even with their high cost. This study aims to numerically assess the viability of using FRP bars, as longitudinal reinforcement, in comparison with traditional steel bars, and also as prestressing tendons instead of the traditional prestressing steel. The nonlinear finite element analysis has been utilized to carry out the current study. Numerical models have been developed to examine the behavior of concrete beams reinforced with FRP bars or tendons against similar models reinforced with either conventional steel or prestressing steel. These numerical models were verified by experimental test results available in the literature. The obtained results revealed that concrete beams reinforced with FRP bars, as passive reinforcement, exhibited less ductility and less stiffness than similar beams reinforced with steel bars. On the other hand, when FRP tendons are employed in prestressing concrete beams, the results show that the performance of these beams is similar to those beams prestressed by conventional active reinforcement but with a difference caused by the two tendon materials’ moduli of elasticity.

Keywords: reinforced concrete, prestressed concrete, nonlinear finite element analysis, fiber-reinforced polymer, ductility

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Authors: Iyd Eqqab Maree, Moouyad Ibrahim Abbood

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The purpose behind this study is to predict damping effect for steel cantilever beam by using two methods of passive viscoelastic constrained layer damping. First method is Matlab Program, this method depend on the Ross, Kerwin and Unger (RKU) model for passive viscoelastic damping. Second method is experimental lab (frequency domain method), in this method used the half-power bandwidth method and can be used to determine the system loss factors for damped steel cantilever beam. The RKU method has been applied to a cantilever beam because beam is a major part of a structure and this prediction may further leads to utilize for different kinds of structural application according to design requirements in many industries. In this method of damping a simple cantilever beam is treated by making sandwich structure to make the beam damp, and this is usually done by using viscoelastic material as a core to ensure the damping effect. The use of viscoelastic layers constrained between elastic layers is known to be effective for damping of flexural vibrations of structures over a wide range of frequencies. The energy dissipated in these arrangements is due to shear deformation in the viscoelastic layers, which occurs due to flexural vibration of the structures. The theory of dynamic stability of elastic systems deals with the study of vibrations induced by pulsating loads that are parametric with respect to certain forms of deformation. There is a very good agreement of the experimental results with the theoretical findings. The main ideas of this thesis are to find the transition region for damped steel cantilever beam (4mm and 8mm thickness) from experimental lab and theoretical prediction (Matlab R2011a). Experimentally and theoretically proved that the transition region for two specimens occurs at modal frequency between mode 1 and mode 2, which give the best damping, maximum loss factor and maximum damping ratio, thus this type of viscoelastic material core (3M468) is very appropriate to use in automotive industry and in any mechanical application has modal frequency eventuate between mode 1 and mode 2.

Keywords: 3M-468 material core, loss factor and frequency, domain method, bioinformatics, biomedicine, MATLAB

Procedia PDF Downloads 276