Search results for: complex communication needs
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 9087

Search results for: complex communication needs

6987 The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Autism Attitudes and Laws

Authors: Narges Arsanious Kamel Arsanious

Abstract:

A descriptive statistical analysis of the data showed that the most important factor evoking negative attitudes among teachers is student behavior. It have been presented as useful models for understanding the risk factors and protective factors associated with the emergence of autistic traits. Although these ‘syndrome’ forms of autism reach clinical thresholds, they appear to be distinctly different from the idiopathic or ‘non-syndrome’ autism phenotype. Most teachers reported that kindergartens did not prepare them for the educational needs of children with autism, particularly in relation to non-verbal skills. The study is important and points the way for improving teacher inclusion education in Thailand. Inclusive education for students with autism is still in its infancy in Thailand. Although the number of autistic children in schools has increased significantly since the Thai government introduced the Education Regulations for Persons with Disabilities Act in 2008, there is a general lack of services for autistic students and their families. This quantitative study used the Teaching Skills and Readiness Scale for Students with Autism (APTSAS) to test the attitudes and readiness of 110 elementary school teachers when teaching students with autism in general education classrooms. To uncover the true nature of these co morbidities, it is necessary to expand the definition of autism to include the cognitive features of the disorder, and then apply this expanded conceptualization to examine patterns of autistic syndromes. This study used various established eye-tracking paradigms to assess the visual and attention performance of children with DS and FXS who meet the autism thresholds defined in the Social Communication Questionnaire. To study whether the autistic profiles of these children are associated with visual orientation difficulties (sticky attention), decreased social attention, and increased visual search performance, all of which are hallmarks of the idiopathic autistic child phenotype. Data will be collected from children with DS and FXS, aged 6 to 10 years, and two control groups matched for age and intellectual ability (i.e., children with idiopathic autism). In order to enable a comparison of visual attention profiles, cross-sectional analyzes of developmental trajectories are carried out. Significant differences in the visual-attentive processes underlying the presentation of autism in children with FXS and DS have been suggested, supporting the concept of syndrome specificity. The study provides insights into the complex heterogeneity associated with autism syndrome symptoms and autism itself, with clinical implications for the utility of autism intervention programs in DS and FXS populations.

Keywords: attitude, autism, teachers, sports activities, movement skills, motor skills

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6986 Monitoring the Railways by Means of C-OTDR Technology

Authors: Andrey V. Timofeev

Abstract:

This paper presents development results of the method of seismoacoustic activity monitoring based on usage vibrosensitive properties of optical fibers. Analysis of Rayleigh backscattering radiation parameters changes, which take place due to microscopic seismoacoustic impacts on the optical fiber, allows to determine seismoacoustic emission sources positions and to identify their types. Results of using this approach are successful for complex monitoring of railways.

Keywords: C-OTDR systems, monitoring of railways, Rayleigh backscattering, eismoacoustic activity

Procedia PDF Downloads 395
6985 Explaining Motivation in Language Learning: A Framework for Evaluation and Research

Authors: Kim Bower

Abstract:

Evaluating and researching motivation in language learning is a complex and multi-faceted activity. Various models for investigating learner motivation have been proposed in the literature, but no one model supplies a complex and coherent model for investigating a range of motivational characteristics. Here, such a methodological framework, which includes exemplification of sources of evidence and potential methods of investigation, is proposed. The process model for the investigation of motivation within language learning settings proposed is based on a complex dynamic systems perspective that takes account of cognition and affects. It focuses on three overarching aspects of motivation: the learning environment, learner engagement and learner identities. Within these categories subsets are defined: the learning environment incorporates teacher, course and group specific aspects of motivation; learner engagement addresses the principal characteristics of learners' perceived value of activities, their attitudes towards language learning, their perceptions of their learning and engagement in learning tasks; and within learner identities, principal characteristics of self-concept and mastery of the language are explored. Exemplifications of potential sources of evidence in the model reflect the multiple influences within and between learner and environmental factors and the possible changes in both that may emerge over time. The model was initially developed as a framework for investigating different models of Content and Language Integrated Learning (CLIL) in contrasting contexts in secondary schools in England. The study, from which examples are drawn to exemplify the model, aimed to address the following three research questions: (1) in what ways does CLIL impact on learner motivation? (2) what are the main elements of CLIL that enhance motivation? and (3) to what extent might these be transferable to other contexts? This new model has been tried and tested in three locations in England and reported as case studies. Following an initial visit to each institution to discuss the qualitative research, instruments were developed according to the proposed model. A questionnaire was drawn up and completed by one group prior to a 3-day data collection visit to each institution, during which interviews were held with academic leaders, the head of the department, the CLIL teacher(s), and two learner focus groups of six-eight learners. Interviews were recorded and transcribed verbatim. 2-4 naturalistic observations of lessons were undertaken in each setting, as appropriate to the context, to provide colour and thereby a richer picture. Findings were subjected to an interpretive analysis by the themes derived from the process model and are reported elsewhere. The model proved to be an effective and coherent framework for planning the research, instrument design, data collection and interpretive analysis of data in these three contrasting settings, in which different models of language learning were in place. It is hoped that the proposed model, reported here together with exemplification and commentary, will enable teachers and researchers in a wide range of language learning contexts to investigate learner motivation in a systematic and in-depth manner.

Keywords: investigate, language-learning, learner motivation model, dynamic systems perspective

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6984 A General Framework to Successfully Operate the Digital Transformation Process in the Post-COVID Era

Authors: Driss Kettani

Abstract:

In this paper, we shed light on “Digital Divide 2.0,” which we see as COVID-19’s Version of the Digital Divide! We believe that “Fighting” against Digital Divide 2.0 necessitates for a Country to be seriously advanced in the Global Digital Transformation that is, naturally, a complex, delicate, costly and long-term Process. We build an argument supporting our assumption and, from there, we present the foundations of a computational framework to guide and streamline Digital Transformation at all levels.

Keywords: digital divide 2.0, digital transformation, ICTs for development, computational outcomes assessment

Procedia PDF Downloads 177
6983 The Need for Embodiment Perspectives and Somatic Methods in Social Work Curriculum: Lessons Learned from a Decade of Developing a Program to Support College Students Who Exited the State Foster Care System

Authors: Yvonne A. Unrau

Abstract:

Social work education is a competency-based curriculum that relies mostly on cognitive frameworks and problem-solving models. Absent from the curriculum is knowledge and skills that draw from an embodiment perspective, especially somatic practice methods. Embodiment broadly encompasses the understanding that biological, political, historical, and social factors impact human development via changes to the nervous system. In the past 20 years, research has well-established that unresolved traumatic events, especially during childhood, negatively impacts long-term health and well-being. Furthermore, traumatic stress compromises cognitive processing and activates reflexive action such as ‘fight’ or ‘flight,’ which are the focus of somatic methods. The main objective of this paper is to show how embodiment perspectives and somatic methods can enhance social work practice overall. Using an exploratory approach, the author shares a decade-long journey that involved creating an education-support program for college students who exited the state foster care system. Personal experience, program outcomes and case study narratives revealed that ‘classical’ social work methods were insufficient to fully address the complex needs of college students who were living with complex traumatic stressors. The paper chronicles select case study scenarios and key program development milestones over a 10-year period to show the benefit of incorporating embodiment perspectives in social work practice. The lessons reveal that there is an immediate need for social work curriculum to include embodiment perspectives so that social workers may be equipped to respond competently to their many clients who live with unresolved trauma.

Keywords: social work practice, social work curriculum, embodiment, traumatic stress

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6982 Exploring the Healthcare Leader's Perception of Their Role and Leadership Behaviours - Looking Through an Adult Developmental Lens

Authors: Shannon Richards-Green, Suzanne Gough, Sharon Mickan

Abstract:

Background: Healthcare leaders work in highly complex and rapidly changing environments. Consequently, they need both flexibility and the capacity to hold multiple perspectives simultaneously. My research explored how healthcare leaders understand and make sense (meaning) of their leadership experiences and how this understanding was manifested in their leadership behaviours. Methods: This grounded theory study was conducted via 2 x 1-hour interviews with healthcare leaders within acute care hospitals. A total of 33 hours of interviews were conducted with 17 participants. Participants were recruited using a combination of purposive and snowball sampling. Interviews were recorded, transcribed, and coded to explore emergent patterns and relationships within the data, utilising constant comparative analysis. Adult developmental stage was defined through a subject-object interview with each participant, in alignment with the tenets of constructive development theory. Findings: Participants from acute care hospitals within Australia have participated in the study, with the majority representing the executive leadership level. Broad categories emerging from the data include; Broadening perspectives and abilities as a leader, Dealing with and experiencing conflict within the workplace, Experiencing rewarding times as a leader, and Leading in alignment with a strong personal values system. Discussion: Successfully dealing with complex challenges requires an ability to engage with nuanced perspectives and responses, an integral part of adult developmental growth. In dealing with conflict, for example, leaders at various levels of adult development approached the situation quite differently. Understanding how healthcare leaders make sense of their experiences can assist in providing insights into the value of supporting adult developmental growth in healthcare leadership.

Keywords: leadership, adult development, complexity, growth

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6981 The Colouration of Additive-Manufactured Polymer

Authors: Abisuga Oluwayemisi Adebola, Kerri Akiwowo, Deon de Beer, Kobus Van Der Walt

Abstract:

The convergence of additive manufacturing (AM) and traditional textile dyeing techniques has initiated innovative possibilities for improving the visual application and customization potential of 3D-printed polymer objects. Textile dyeing techniques have progressed to transform fabrics with vibrant colours and complex patterns over centuries. The layer-by-layer deposition characteristic of AM necessitates adaptations in dye application methods to ensure even colour penetration across complex surfaces. Compatibility between dye formulations and polymer matrices influences colour uptake and stability, demanding careful selection and testing of dyes for optimal results. This study investigates the development interaction between these areas, revealing the challenges and opportunities of applying textile dyeing methods to colour 3D-printed polymer materials. The method explores three innovative approaches to colour the 3D-printed polymer object: (a) Additive Manufacturing of a Prototype, (b) the traditional dyebath method, and (c) the contemporary digital sublimation technique. The results show that the layer lines inherent to AM interact with dyes differently and affect the visual outcome compared to traditional textile fibers. Skillful manipulation of textile dyeing methods and dye type used for this research reduced the appearance of these lines to achieve consistency and desirable colour outcomes. In conclusion, integrating textile dyeing techniques into colouring 3D-printed polymer materials connects historical craftsmanship with innovative manufacturing. Overcoming challenges of colour distribution, compatibility, and layer line management requires a holistic approach that blends the technical consistency of AM with the artistic sensitivity of textile dyeing. Hence, applying textile dyeing methods to 3D-printed polymers opens new dimensions of aesthetic and functional possibilities.

Keywords: polymer, 3D-printing, sublimation, textile, dyeing, additive manufacturing

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6980 Music Tourism for Identity and Cultural Communication in Qualitative Analysis with MAXQDA

Authors: Yixuan Peng

Abstract:

Music tourism is the phenomenon of people visiting a place because of their association with music, as well as the process of creating an emotional attachment to a place through the connection between people and music. Music offers people the opportunity to immerse themselves in the local culture. Music tourism is increasingly recognized as an industry with economic and social impacts. People often come together for a common purpose of music at a certain time and place, such as concert, opera, or music workshop. This is very similar to the act of pilgrimage: the process of participation evokes strong emotions; it takes time and money to get to the destination; the gathering, and the emotional co-frequency. This study conducted further qualitative research using MAXQDA by applying the musical topophilia model with East Asians as interview subjects. There are three steps to traveling: before, during and after the trip. To date, 53 individuals living in East Asia have been interviewed one-on-one (online/offline) about their travel experiences. This part of the interview is limited to the two stages that are before and after travel. Based on the results of the interviews above, and as Europe has the most representative music industry and the richest variety of music genres. The " during the trip" phase of the observations and interviews were conducted in Europe and involved on-site music in Salzburg and London, including musical theater, street music, and musical pilgrimages. Interviews with 24 people were conducted in English, Chinese and Japanese. This study will use data to demonstrate the followings: the irreplaceability of music in faraway places; the identity and sense of belonging that music brings; the ethnic barriers that music crosses; and the cultural communication that music enables.

Keywords: belongingness, gathering, modern pilgrimage, anthropology of music, sociology of music

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6979 PRENACEL: Development and Evaluation of an M-Health Strategy to Improve Prenatal Care in Brazil

Authors: E. M. Vieira, C. S. Vieira, L. P. Bonifácio, L. M. de Oliveira Ciabati, A. C. A. Franzon, F. S. Zaratini, J. A. C. Sanchez, M. S. Andrade, J. P. Dias de Souza

Abstract:

The quality of prenatal care is key to reduce maternal morbidity and mortality. Communication between the health service and users can stimulate prevention and care. M-health has been an important and low cost strategy to health education. The PRENACEL programme (prenatal in the cell phone) was developed. It consists of a programme of information via SMS from the 20th week of pregnancy up to 12th week after delivery. Messages were about prenatal care, birth, contraception and breastfeeding. Communication of the pregnant woman asking questions about their health was possible. The objective of this study was to evaluate the implementation of PRENACEL as a useful complement to the standard prenatal care. Twenty health clinics were selected and randomized by cluster, 10 as the intervention group and 10 as the control group. In the intervention group, women and their partner were invited to participate. The control group received the standard prenatal care. All women were interviewed in the immediate post-partum and in the 12th and 24th week post-partum. Most women were married, had more than 8 years of schooling and visit the clinic more than 6 times during prenatal care. The intervention group presented lowest percentage of higher economic participants (5.6%), less single mothers and no drug user. It also presented more prenatal care visits than the control group and it was less likely to present Severe Acute Maternal Mortality when compared to control group as well as higher percentage of partners (75.4%) was present at the birth compared to control group. Although the study is still being carried out, preliminary data are showing positive results of the compliance of women to prenatal care.

Keywords: cellphone, health technology, prenatal care, prevention

Procedia PDF Downloads 389
6978 A Psychosocial Approach to Community Development, Lessons from the Transition Town Movement in Italy

Authors: Anna Zoli

Abstract:

In recent years, we have been witnessing a surge of locally-sustained communities committed to promoting new ethical economies while fostering the full participation of socially excluded groups and individuals into the labor market. This article explores the practices of a particular community development model, Transition Towns, as implemented in Monteveglio, Italy. Data were gathered throughout two years long ethnography, using multiple qualitative techniques, namely participant observation, document analysis, and semi-structured interviews. Data were analyzed triangulating from multiple sources of evidence and using hybrid thematic analysis. Major findings show that Transition Town movement works on two main axes, vertical and horizontal. Vertical transition involves interactions with an overreaching political, economic, and social structure which is not transitioning, and therefore poses structural resistances to the transformative social change fostered by the TT. Conversely, horizontal transition involves intragroup dynamics within the communal relational and geographical spaces and therefore poses process resistances between 'self and others' to the interpersonal communication between TT members. The study concludes that a psychosocial approach to community development is essential in order to conflate macro-social dynamics and psychological processes that may obstacle grassroots social movements to thrive. Skills from psychosocial disciplines are a unique set that could facilitate communication and relational processes for community development, and ultimately enabling social change.

Keywords: community development, grassroots social movements, psychosocial approaches, Transition Towns

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6977 The Contemporary Visual Spectacle: Critical Visual Literacy

Authors: Lai-Fen Yang

Abstract:

In this increasingly visual world, how can we best decipher and understand the many ways that our everyday lives are organized around looking practices and the many images we encounter each day? Indeed, how we interact with and interpret visual images is a basic component of human life. Today, however, we are living in one of the most artificial visual and image-saturated cultures in human history, which makes understanding the complex construction and multiple social functions of visual imagery more important than ever before. Themes regarding our experience of a visually pervasive mediated culture, here, termed visual spectacle.

Keywords: visual culture, contemporary, images, literacy

Procedia PDF Downloads 513
6976 Cricket Injury Surveillence by Mobile Application Technology on Smartphones

Authors: Najeebullah Soomro, Habib Noorbhai, Mariam Soomro, Ross Sanders

Abstract:

The demands on cricketers are increasing with more matches being played in a shorter period of time with a greater intensity. A ten year report on injury incidence for Australian elite cricketers between the 2000- 2011 seasons revealed an injury incidence rate of 17.4%.1. In the 2009–10 season, 24 % of Australian fast bowlers missed matches through injury. 1 Injury rates are even higher in junior cricketers with an injury incidence of 25% or 2.9 injuries per 100 player hours reported. 2 Traditionally, injury surveillance has relied on the use of paper based forms or complex computer software. 3,4 This makes injury reporting laborious for the staff involved. The purpose of this presentation is to describe a smartphone based mobile application as a means of improving injury surveillance in cricket. Methods: The researchers developed CricPredict mobile App for the Android platforms, the world’s most widely used smartphone platform. It uses Qt SDK (Software Development Kit) as IDE (Integrated Development Environment). C++ was used as the programming language with the Qt framework, which provides us with cross-platform abilities that will allow this app to be ported to other operating systems (iOS, Mac, Windows) in the future. The wireframes (graphic user interface) were developed using Justinmind Prototyper Pro Edition Version (Ver. 6.1.0). CricPredict enables recording of injury and training status conveniently and immediately. When an injury is reported automated follow-up questions include site of injury, nature of injury, mechanism of injury, initial treatment, referral and action taken after injury. Direct communication with the player then enables assessment of severity and diagnosis. CricPredict also allows the coach to maintain and track each player’s attendance at matches and training session. Workload data can also be recorded by either the player or coach by recording the number of balls bowled or played in a day. This is helpful in formulating injury rates and time lost due to injuries. All the data are stored at a secured password protected data server. Outcomes and Significance: Use of CricPredit offers a simple, user friendly tool for the coaching or medical staff associated with teams to predict, record and report injuries. This system will assist teams to capture injury data with ease thus allowing better understanding of injuries associated with cricket and potentially optimize the performance of such cricketers.

Keywords: injury, cricket, surveillance, smartphones, mobile

Procedia PDF Downloads 459
6975 Evaluating the Effect of Spatial Qualities, Openness and Complexity, on Human Cognitive Performance within Virtual Reality

Authors: Pierre F. Gerard, Frederic F. Leymarie, William Latham

Abstract:

Architects have developed a series of objective evaluations, using spatial analysis tools such as Isovist, that show how certain spatial qualities are beneficial to specific human activities hosted in the built environments. In return, they can build more adapted environments by tuning those spatial qualities in their design. In parallel, virtual reality technologies have been developed by engineers with the dream of creating a system that immerses users in a new form of spatial experiences. They already have demonstrated a useful range of benefits not only in simulating critical events to assist people in acquiring new skills, but also to enhance memory retention, to name just a few. This paper investigates the effects of two spatial qualities, openness, and complexity, on cognitive performance within immersive virtual environments. Isovist measure is used to design a series of room settings with different levels of each spatial qualities. In an empirical study, each room was then used by every participant to solve a navigational puzzle game and give a rating of their spatial experience. They were then asked to fill in a questionnaire before solving the visual-spatial memory quiz, which addressed how well they remembered the different rooms. Findings suggest that those spatial qualities have an effect on some of the measures, including navigation performance and memory retention. In particular, there is an order effect for the navigation puzzle game. Participants tended to spend a longer time in the complex room settings. Moreover, there is an interaction effect while with more open settings, participants tended to perform better when in a simple setting; however, with more closed settings, participants tended to perform better in a more complex setting. For the visual-spatial memory quiz, participants performed significantly better within the more open rooms. We believe this is a first step in using virtual environments to enhance participant cognitive performances through better use of specific spatial qualities.

Keywords: architecture, navigation, spatial cognition, virtual reality

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6974 A Fast Optimizer for Large-scale Fulfillment Planning based on Genetic Algorithm

Authors: Choonoh Lee, Seyeon Park, Dongyun Kang, Jaehyeong Choi, Soojee Kim, Younggeun Kim

Abstract:

Market Kurly is the first South Korean online grocery retailer that guarantees same-day, overnight shipping. More than 1.6 million customers place an average of 4.7 million orders and add 3 to 14 products into a cart per month. The company has sold almost 30,000 kinds of various products in the past 6 months, including food items, cosmetics, kitchenware, toys for kids/pets, and even flowers. The company is operating and expanding multiple dry, cold, and frozen fulfillment centers in order to store and ship these products. Due to the scale and complexity of the fulfillment, pick-pack-ship processes are planned and operated in batches, and thus, the planning that decides the batch of the customers’ orders is a critical factor in overall productivity. This paper introduces a metaheuristic optimization method that reduces the complexity of batch processing in a fulfillment center. The method is an iterative genetic algorithm with heuristic creation and evolution strategies; it aims to group similar orders into pick-pack-ship batches to minimize the total number of distinct products. With a well-designed approach to create initial genes, the method produces streamlined plans, up to 13.5% less complex than the actual plans carried out in the company’s fulfillment centers in the previous months. Furthermore, our digital-twin simulations show that the optimized plans can reduce 3% of operation time for packing, which is the most complex and time-consuming task in the process. The optimization method implements a multithreading design on the Spring framework to support the company’s warehouse management systems in near real-time, finding a solution for 4,000 orders within 5 to 7 seconds on an AWS c5.2xlarge instance.

Keywords: fulfillment planning, genetic algorithm, online grocery retail, optimization

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6973 The Lived Experience of Risk and Protective Contexts of Blind Successful University Students in Sidist Kilo Campus

Authors: Zelalem Markos Borko

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The quality of life of people with blindness is significantly influenced by the level of resilience they possess. A qualitative approach of the descriptive phenomenological design was employed to address basic study objectives. The researcher purposely selected three blind graduate students from Sidist Kilo Campus and conducted a semi-structured interview to gather data. Data were analyzed by using thematic coding techniques. The present study found that personal characteristics such as commitment, living hope, motivation, positive self-esteem, self-confidence, and communication have shaped resiliency for successful university students with visual disabilities. The finding showed that the school environment is the place in which blind students had developed/experienced social, psychological, and economical competency and hope for their academic and entire life success. Furthermore, the finding showed that blind students had experienced individual, family, school, and community-related risks in the success track. Therefore, governmental and non-governmental organizations should provide training for students with visual impairments that focus on the individual traits that shape resilience for academic success, such as commitment, living hope, motivation, positive self-esteem, self-confidence, and communication and also community-oriented training should be to break the social stigma and discriminations for the individuals with the visual impairment.

Keywords: blind students, risk and protective factors, lived experience, success

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6972 Effects of Cannabis and Cocaine on Driving Related Tasks of Perception, Cognition, and Action

Authors: Michelle V. Tomczak, Reyhaneh Bakhtiari, Aaron Granley, Anthony Singhal

Abstract:

Objective: Cannabis and cocaine are associated with a range of mental and physical effects that can impair aspects of human behavior. Driving is a complex cognitive behavior that is an essential part of everyday life and can be broken down into many subcomponents, each of which can uniquely impact road safety. With the growing movement of jurisdictions to legalize cannabis, there is an increased focus on impairment and driving. The purpose of this study was to identify driving-related cognitive-performance deficits that are impacted by recreational drug use. Design and Methods: With the assistance of law enforcement agencies, we recruited over 300 participants under the influence of various drugs including cannabis and cocaine. These individuals performed a battery of computer-based tasks scientifically proven to be re-lated to on-road driving performance and designed to test response-speed, memory processes, perceptual-motor skills, and decision making. Data from a control group with healthy non-drug using adults was collected as well. Results: Compared to controls, the drug group showed def-icits in all tasks. The data also showed clear differences between the cannabis and cocaine groups where cannabis users were faster, and performed better on some aspects of the decision-making and perceptual-motor tasks. Memory performance was better in the cocaine group for simple tasks but not more complex tasks. Finally, the participants who consumed both drugs performed most similarly to the cannabis group. Conclusions: Our results show distinct and combined effects of cannabis and cocaine on human performance relating to driving. These dif-ferential effects are likely related to the unique effects of each drug on the human brain and how they distinctly contribute to mental states. Our results have important implications for road safety associated with driver impairment.

Keywords: driving, cognitive impairment, recreational drug use, cannabis and cocaine

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6971 Social Media Diffusion And Implications For Opinion Leadership In Northcentral Nigeria

Authors: Chuks Odiegwu-Enwerem

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The classical notion of opinion leadership presupposes that the media is at the center of an effective and successful opinion leadership. Under this idea, an opinion leader is an active media user who consumes, understands, digests and interprets the messages for the understanding and acceptance/adoption by lower-end media users – whose access and understanding of media content are supposedly low. Because of their unique access to and presumed understanding of media functions and their content, opinion leaders are typically esteemed by those who look forward to and accept their opinions. Lazarsfeld and Katz’s two-step flow of communication theory is the basis of opinion leadership – propelled by limited access to the media. With the emergence and spread of social media and its unlimited access by all and sundry, however, the study interrogates the relevance and application of opinion leaders and, by implication, the two-step flow communication theory in Nigeria’s Northcentral region. It seeks to determine whether opinion leaders still exist in the picture and if they still exert considerable influence, especially in matters of political conversations and decision-making among the citizens of this area. It further explores whether the diffusion of social media is a reality and how the ‘low-end’ media users react to the new-found freedom of access to media, and how they are using it to inform their decisions on important matters as well as examines if they are still glued to their opinion leaders. This study explores the empirical dimensions of the two-step flow hypothesis in relation to the activities of social media to determine if a change has occurred and in what direction, using mixed methos of Survey and in-depth interviews. Our understanding and belief in some theoretical assumptions may be enhanced or challenged by the study outcome.

Keywords: Opinion Leadership, Active Media User, Two-Step-Flow, Social media, Northcentral Nigeria

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6970 Stability Analysis of Slopes during Pile Driving

Authors: Yeganeh Attari, Gudmund Reidar Eiksund, Hans Peter Jostad

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In Geotechnical practice, there is no standard method recognized by the industry to account for the reduction of safety factor of a slope as an effect of soil displacement and pore pressure build-up during pile installation. Pile driving disturbs causes large strains and generates excess pore pressures in a zone that can extend many diameters from the installed pile, resulting in a decrease of the shear strength of the surrounding soil. This phenomenon may cause slope failure. Moreover, dissipation of excess pore pressure set-up may cause weakening of areas outside the volume of soil remoulded during installation. Because of complex interactions between changes in mean stress and shearing, it is challenging to predict installation induced pore pressure response. Furthermore, it is a complex task to follow the rate and path of pore pressure dissipation in order to analyze slope stability. In cohesive soils it is necessary to implement soil models that account for strain softening in the analysis. In the literature, several cases of slope failure due to pile driving activities have been reported, for instance, a landslide in Gothenburg that resulted in a slope failure destroying more than thirty houses and Rigaud landslide in Quebec which resulted in loss of life. Up to now, several methods have been suggested to predict the effect of pile driving on total and effective stress, pore pressure changes and their effect on soil strength. However, this is still not well understood or agreed upon. In Norway, general approaches applied by geotechnical engineers for this problem are based on old empirical methods with little accurate theoretical background. While the limitations of such methods are discussed, this paper attempts to capture the reduction in the factor of safety of a slope during pile driving, using coupled Finite Element analysis and cavity expansion method. This is demonstrated by analyzing a case of slope failure due to pile driving in Norway.

Keywords: cavity expansion method, excess pore pressure, pile driving, slope failure

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6969 Simulation-Based Control Module for Offshore Single Point Mooring System

Authors: Daehyun Baek, Seungmin Lee, Minju Kim Jangik Park, Hyeong-Soon Moon

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SPM (Single Point Mooring) is one of the mooring buoy facilities installed on a coast near oil and gas terminal which is not able to berth FPSO or large oil tankers under the condition of high draft due to geometrical limitation. Loading and unloading of crude oil and gas through a subsea pipeline can be carried out between the mooring buoy, ships and onshore facilities. SPM is an offshore-standalone system which has to withstand the harsh marine environment with harsh conditions such as high wind, current and so on. Therefore, SPM is required to have high stability, reliability and durability. Also, SPM is comprised to be integrated systems which consist of power management, high pressure valve control, sophisticated hardware/software and a long distance communication system. In order to secure required functions of SPM system, a simulation model for the integrated system of SPM using MATLAB Simulink and State flow tool has been developed. The developed model consists of configuration of hydraulic system for opening and closing of PLEM (Pipeline End Manifold) valves and control system logic. To verify functions of the model, an integrated simulation model for overall systems of SPM was also developed by considering handshaking variables between individual systems. In addition to the dynamic model, a self-diagnostic function to determine failure of the system was configured, which enables the SPM system itself to alert users about the failure once a failure signal comes to arise. Controlling and monitoring the SPM system is able to be done by a HMI system which is capable of managing the SPM system remotely, which was carried out by building a communication environment between the SPM system and the HMI system.

Keywords: HMI system, mooring buoy, simulink simulation model, single point mooring, stateflow

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6968 Evaluation of a Driver Training Intervention for People on the Autism Spectrum: A Multi-Site Randomized Control Trial

Authors: P. Vindin, R. Cordier, N. J. Wilson, H. Lee

Abstract:

Engagement in community-based activities such as education, employment, and social relationships can improve the quality of life for individuals with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD). Community mobility is vital to attaining independence for individuals with ASD. Learning to drive and gaining a driver’s license is a critical link to community mobility; however, for individuals with ASD acquiring safe driving skills can be a challenging process. Issues related to anxiety, executive function, and social communication may affect driving behaviours. Driving training and education aimed at addressing barriers faced by learner drivers with ASD can help them improve their driving performance. A multi-site randomized controlled trial (RCT) was conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of an autism-specific driving training intervention for improving the on-road driving performance of learner drivers with ASD. The intervention was delivered via a training manual and interactive website consisting of five modules covering varying driving environments starting with a focus on off-road preparations and progressing through basic to complex driving skill mastery. Seventy-two learner drivers with ASD aged 16 to 35 were randomized using a blinded group allocation procedure into either the intervention or control group. The intervention group received 10 driving lessons with the instructors trained in the use of an autism-specific driving training protocol, whereas the control group received 10 driving lessons as usual. Learner drivers completed a pre- and post-observation drive using a standardized driving route to measure driving performance using the Driving Performance Checklist (DPC). They also completed anxiety, executive function, and social responsiveness measures. The findings showed that there were significant improvements in driving performance for both the intervention (d = 1.02) and the control group (d = 1.15). However, the differences were not significant between groups (p = 0.614) or study sites (p = 0.842). None of the potential moderator variables (anxiety, cognition, social responsiveness, and driving instructor experience) influenced driving performance. This study is an important step toward improving community mobility for individuals with ASD showing that an autism-specific driving training intervention can improve the driving performance of leaner drivers with ASD. It also highlighted the complexity of conducting a multi-site design even when sites were matched according to geography and traffic conditions. Driving instructors also need more and clearer information on how to communicate with learner drivers with restricted verbal expression.

Keywords: autism spectrum disorder, community mobility, driving training, transportation

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6967 Data Compression in Ultrasonic Network Communication via Sparse Signal Processing

Authors: Beata Zima, Octavio A. Márquez Reyes, Masoud Mohammadgholiha, Jochen Moll, Luca de Marchi

Abstract:

This document presents the approach of using compressed sensing in signal encoding and information transferring within a guided wave sensor network, comprised of specially designed frequency steerable acoustic transducers (FSATs). Wave propagation in a damaged plate was simulated using commercial FEM-based software COMSOL. Guided waves were excited by means of FSATs, characterized by the special shape of its electrodes, and modeled using PIC255 piezoelectric material. The special shape of the FSAT, allows for focusing wave energy in a certain direction, accordingly to the frequency components of its actuation signal, which makes available a larger monitored area. The process begins when a FSAT detects and records reflection from damage in the structure, this signal is then encoded and prepared for transmission, using a combined approach, based on Compressed Sensing Matching Pursuit and Quadrature Amplitude Modulation (QAM). After codification of the signal is in binary chars the information is transmitted between the nodes in the network. The message reaches the last node, where it is finally decoded and processed, to be used for damage detection and localization purposes. The main aim of the investigation is to determine the location of detected damage using reconstructed signals. The study demonstrates that the special steerable capabilities of FSATs, not only facilitate the detection of damage but also permit transmitting the damage information to a chosen area in a specific direction of the investigated structure.

Keywords: data compression, ultrasonic communication, guided waves, FEM analysis

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6966 Impacts of Climate Elements on the Annual Periodic Behavior of the Shallow Groundwater Level: Case Study from Central-Eastern Europe

Authors: Tamas Garamhegyi, Jozsef Kovacs, Rita Pongracz, Peter Tanos, Balazs Trasy, Norbert Magyar, Istvan G. Hatvani

Abstract:

Like most environmental processes, shallow groundwater fluctuation under natural circumstances also behaves periodically. With the statistical tools at hand, it can easily be determined if a period exists in the data or not. Thus, the question may be raised: Does the estimated average period time characterize the whole time period, or not? This is especially important in the case of such complex phenomena as shallow groundwater fluctuation, driven by numerous factors. Because of the continuous changes in the oscillating components of shallow groundwater time series, the most appropriate method should be used to investigate its periodicity, this is wavelet spectrum analysis. The aims of the research were to investigate the periodic behavior of the shallow groundwater time series of an agriculturally important and drought sensitive region in Central-Eastern Europe and its relationship to the European pressure action centers. During the research ~216 shallow groundwater observation wells located in the eastern part of the Great Hungarian Plain with a temporal coverage of 50 years were scanned for periodicity. By taking the full-time interval as 100%, the presence of any period could be determined in percentages. With the complex hydrogeological/meteorological model developed in this study, non-periodic time intervals were found in the shallow groundwater levels. On the local scale, this phenomenon linked to drought conditions, and on a regional scale linked to the maxima of the regional air pressures in the Gulf of Genoa. The study documented an important link between shallow groundwater levels and climate variables/indices facilitating the necessary adaptation strategies on national and/or regional scales, which have to take into account the predictions of drought-related climatic conditions.

Keywords: climate change, drought, groundwater periodicity, wavelet spectrum and coherence analyses

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6965 Social Network Roles in Organizations: Influencers, Bridges, and Soloists

Authors: Sofia Dokuka, Liz Lockhart, Alex Furman

Abstract:

Organizational hierarchy, traditionally composed of individual contributors, middle management, and executives, is enhanced by the understanding of informal social roles. These roles, identified with organizational network analysis (ONA), might have an important effect on organizational functioning. In this paper, we identify three social roles – influencers, bridges, and soloists, and provide empirical analysis based on real-world organizational networks. Influencers are employees with broad networks and whose contacts also have rich networks. Influence is calculated using PageRank, initially proposed for measuring website importance, but now applied in various network settings, including social networks. Influencers, having high PageRank, become key players in shaping opinions and behaviors within an organization. Bridges serve as links between loosely connected groups within the organization. Bridges are identified using betweenness and Burt’s constraint. Betweenness quantifies a node's control over information flows by evaluating its role in the control over the shortest paths within the network. Burt's constraint measures the extent of interconnection among an individual's contacts. A high constraint value suggests fewer structural holes and lesser control over information flows, whereas a low value suggests the contrary. Soloists are individuals with fewer than 5 stable social contacts, potentially facing challenges due to reduced social interaction and hypothetical lack of feedback and communication. We considered social roles in the analysis of real-world organizations (N=1,060). Based on data from digital traces (Slack, corporate email and calendar) we reconstructed an organizational communication network and identified influencers, bridges and soloists. We also collected employee engagement data through an online survey. Among the top-5% of influencers, 10% are members of the Executive Team. 56% of the Executive Team members are part of the top influencers group. The same proportion of top influencers (10%) is individual contributors, accounting for just 0.6% of all individual contributors in the company. The majority of influencers (80%) are at the middle management level. Out of all middle managers, 19% hold the role of influencers. However, individual contributors represent a small proportion of influencers, and having information about these individuals who hold influential roles can be crucial for management in identifying high-potential talents. Among the bridges, 4% are members of the Executive Team, 16% are individual contributors, and 80% are middle management. Predominantly middle management acts as a bridge. Bridge positions of some members of the executive team might indicate potential micromanagement on the leader's part. Recognizing the individuals serving as bridges in an organization uncovers potential communication problems. The majority of soloists are individual contributors (96%), and 4% of soloists are from middle management. These managers might face communication difficulties. We found an association between being an influencer and attitude toward a company's direction. There is a statistically significant 20% higher perception that the company is headed in the right direction among influencers compared to non-influencers (p < 0.05, Mann-Whitney test). Taken together, we demonstrate that considering social roles in the company might indicate both positive and negative aspects of organizational functioning that should be considered in data-driven decision-making.

Keywords: organizational network analysis, social roles, influencer, bridge, soloist

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6964 Identifying Confirmed Resemblances in Problem-Solving Engineering, Both in the Past and Present

Authors: Colin Schmidt, Adrien Lecossier, Pascal Crubleau, Philippe Blanchard, Simon Richir

Abstract:

Introduction:The widespread availability of artificial intelligence, exemplified by Generative Pre-trained Transformers (GPT) relying on large language models (LLM), has caused a seismic shift in the realm of knowledge. Everyone now has the capacity to swiftly learn how these models can either serve them well or not. Today, conversational AI like ChatGPT is grounded in neural transformer models, a significant advance in natural language processing facilitated by the emergence of renowned LLMs constructed using neural transformer architecture. Inventiveness of an LLM : OpenAI's GPT-3 stands as a premier LLM, capable of handling a broad spectrum of natural language processing tasks without requiring fine-tuning, reliably producing text that reads as if authored by humans. However, even with an understanding of how LLMs respond to questions asked, there may be lurking behind OpenAI’s seemingly endless responses an inventive model yet to be uncovered. There may be some unforeseen reasoning emerging from the interconnection of neural networks here. Just as a Soviet researcher in the 1940s questioned the existence of Common factors in inventions, enabling an Under standing of how and according to what principles humans create them, it is equally legitimate today to explore whether solutions provided by LLMs to complex problems also share common denominators. Theory of Inventive Problem Solving (TRIZ) : We will revisit some fundamentals of TRIZ and how Genrich ALTSHULLER was inspired by the idea that inventions and innovations are essential means to solve societal problems. It's crucial to note that traditional problem-solving methods often fall short in discovering innovative solutions. The design team is frequently hampered by psychological barriers stemming from confinement within a highly specialized knowledge domain that is difficult to question. We presume ChatGPT Utilizes TRIZ 40. Hence, the objective of this research is to decipher the inventive model of LLMs, particularly that of ChatGPT, through a comparative study. This will enhance the efficiency of sustainable innovation processes and shed light on how the construction of a solution to a complex problem was devised. Description of the Experimental Protocol : To confirm or reject our main hypothesis that is to determine whether ChatGPT uses TRIZ, we will follow a stringent protocol that we will detail, drawing on insights from a panel of two TRIZ experts. Conclusion and Future Directions : In this endeavor, we sought to comprehend how an LLM like GPT addresses complex challenges. Our goal was to analyze the inventive model of responses provided by an LLM, specifically ChatGPT, by comparing it to an existing standard model: TRIZ 40. Of course, problem solving is our main focus in our endeavours.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, Triz, ChatGPT, inventiveness, problem-solving

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6963 Application of Stochastic Models on the Portuguese Population and Distortion to Workers Compensation Pensioners Experience

Authors: Nkwenti Mbelli Njah

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This research was motivated by a project requested by AXA on the topic of pensions payable under the workers compensation (WC) line of business. There are two types of pensions: the compulsorily recoverable and the not compulsorily recoverable. A pension is compulsorily recoverable for a victim when there is less than 30% of disability and the pension amount per year is less than six times the minimal national salary. The law defines that the mathematical provisions for compulsory recoverable pensions must be calculated by applying the following bases: mortality table TD88/90 and rate of interest 5.25% (maybe with rate of management). To manage pensions which are not compulsorily recoverable is a more complex task because technical bases are not defined by law and much more complex computations are required. In particular, companies have to predict the amount of payments discounted reflecting the mortality effect for all pensioners (this task is monitored monthly in AXA). The purpose of this research was thus to develop a stochastic model for the future mortality of the worker’s compensation pensioners of both the Portuguese market workers and AXA portfolio. Not only is past mortality modeled, also projections about future mortality are made for the general population of Portugal as well as for the two portfolios mentioned earlier. The global model was split in two parts: a stochastic model for population mortality which allows for forecasts, combined with a point estimate from a portfolio mortality model obtained through three different relational models (Cox Proportional, Brass Linear and Workgroup PLT). The one-year death probabilities for ages 0-110 for the period 2013-2113 are obtained for the general population and the portfolios. These probabilities are used to compute different life table functions as well as the not compulsorily recoverable reserves for each of the models required for the pensioners, their spouses and children under 21. The results obtained are compared with the not compulsory recoverable reserves computed using the static mortality table (TD 73/77) that is currently being used by AXA, to see the impact on this reserve if AXA adopted the dynamic tables.

Keywords: compulsorily recoverable, life table functions, relational models, worker’s compensation pensioners

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6962 Oral Fluency: A Case Study of L2 Learners in Canada

Authors: Maaly Jarrah

Abstract:

Oral fluency in the target language is what many second language learners hope to achieve by living abroad. Research in the past has demonstrated the role informal environments play in improving L2 learners' oral fluency. However, living in the target country and being part of its community does not ensure the development of oral fluency skills. L2 learners' desire to communicate and access to speaking opportunities in the host community are key in achieving oral fluency in the target language. This study attempts to identify differences in oral fluency, specifically speech rate, between learners who communicate in the L2 outside the classroom and those who do not. In addition, as the desire to communicate is a crucial factor in developing oral fluency, this study investigates whether or not learners' desire to speak the L2 outside the classroom plays a role in their frequency of L2 use outside the classroom. Finally, given the importance of the availability of speaking opportunities for L2 learners in order to practice their speaking skills, this study reports on the participants' perceptions of the speaking opportunities accessible to them in the target community while probing whether or not their perceptions differed based on their oral fluency level and their desire to communicate. The results suggest that exposure to the target language and daily communication with the native speakers is strongly related to the development of learners' oral fluency. Moreover, the findings suggest that learners' desire to communicate affects their frequency of communication in their L2 outside the classroom. At the same time, all participants, regardless of their oral fluency level and their desire to communicate, asserted that speaking opportunities beyond the classroom are very limited. Finally, the study finds there are marked differences in the perceptions learners have regarding opportunities for learning offered by the same language program. After reporting these results, the study concludes with recommendations for ESL programs that serve international students.

Keywords: ESL programs, L2 Learners, oral fluency, second language

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6961 Innovative Strategies for Chest Wall Reconstruction Following Resection of Recurrent Breast Carcinoma

Authors: Sean Yao Zu Kong, Khong Yik Chew

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Introduction: We described a case report of the successful use of advanced surgical techniques in a patient with recurrent breast cancer who underwent a wide resection including the hemi-sternum, clavicle, multiple ribs, and a lobe of the lung due to tumor involvement. This extensive resection exposed critical structures, requiring a creative approach to reconstruction. To address this complex chest wall reconstruction, a free fibula flap and a 4-zone rectus abdominis musculocutaneous flap were successfully utilized. The use of a free vascularized bone flap allowed for rapid osteointegration and resistance against osteoradionecrosis after adjuvant radiation, while a four-zone tram flap allowed for reconstruction of both the chest wall and breast mound. Although limited recipient vessels made free flaps challenging, the free fibula flap served as both a bony reconstruction and vascular conduit, supercharged with the distal peroneal artery and veins of the peroneal artery from the fibula graft. Our approach highlights the potential of advanced surgical techniques to improve outcomes in complex cases of chest wall reconstruction in patients with recurrent breast cancer, which is becoming increasingly relevant as breast cancer incidence rates increases. Case presentation: This report describes a successful reconstruction of a patient with recurrent breast cancer who required extensive resection, including the anterior chest wall, clavicle, and sternoclavicular joint. Challenges arose due to the loss of accessory muscles and the non-rigid rib cage, which could lead to compromised ventilation and instability. A free fibula osteocutaneous flap and a four-zone TRAM flap with vascular supercharging were utilized to achieve long-term stability and function. The patient has since fully recovered, and during the review, both flaps remained viable, and chest mound reconstruction was satisfactory. A planned nipple/areolar reconstruction was offered pending the patient’s decision after adjuvant radiotherapy. Conclusion: In conclusion, this case report highlights the successful use of innovative surgical techniques in addressing a complex case of recurrent breast cancer requiring extensive resection and radical reconstruction. Our approach, utilized a combination of a free fibula flap and a 4-zone rectus abdominis musculocutaneous flap, demonstrates the potential for advanced techniques in chest wall reconstruction to minimize complications and ensure long-term stability and function. As the incidence of breast cancer continues to rise, it is crucial that healthcare professionals explore and utilize innovative techniques to improve patient outcomes and quality of life.

Keywords: free fibula flap, rectus abdominis musculocutaneous flap, post-adjuvant radiotherapy, reconstructive surgery, malignancy

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6960 Chinese Speakers’ Language Attitudes Towards English Accents: Comparing Mainland and Hong Kong English Major Students’ Accent Preferences in ELF Communication

Authors: Jiaqi XU, Qingru Sun

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Accent plays a crucial role in second language (L2) learners’ performance in the schooling context in the era of globalization, where English is adopted as a lingua franca (ELF). Previous studies found that Chinese mainland students prefer American English accents, whereas the young generations in Hong Kong prefer British accents. However, these studies neglect the non-native accents of English and fail to elaborate much about why the L2 learners differ in accent preferences between the two regions. Therefore, this research aims to bridge the research gap by 1) including both native and non-native varieties of English accents: American accent, British accent, Chinese Mandarin English accent, and Hong Kong English accent; and 2) uncovering and comparing the deeper reasons for the similar or/and different accent preferences between the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong speakers. This research designed a questionnaire including objective and subjective questions to investigate the students’ accent inclinations and the attitudes and reasons behind their linguistic choices. The questionnaire was distributed to eight participants (4 Chinese mainland students and 4 Hong Kong students) who were postgraduate students at a Hong Kong university. Based on the data collection, this research finds out one similarity and two differences between the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong students’ attitudes. The theories of identity construction and standard language ideology are further applied to analyze the reasons behind the similarities and differences and to evaluate how language attitudes intertwine with their identity construction and language ideology.

Keywords: accent, language attitudes, identity construction, language ideology, ELF communication

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6959 Performing Marginality and Contestation of Ethnic Identity: Dynamics of Identity Politics in Assam, India

Authors: Hare Krishna Doley

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Drawing upon empirical data, this paper tries to examine how ethnic groups like Ahom, Moran, Motok, and Chutia creates and recreates ethnic boundaries while making claims for recognition as Scheduled Tribes (STs) under the Sixth Schedule of the Constitution of India, in the state of Assam. Underlying such claim is the distinct identity consciousness amongst these groups as they assert themselves originally as tribe drawing upon primordial elements. For them, tribal identity promises social justice and give credence to their claims of indigeneity while preserving their exclusivity within the multifarious society of Assam. Having complex inter-group relationships, these groups under study displays distinct as well as overlapping identities, which demonstrate fluidity of identities across groups while making claims for recognition. In this process, the binary of ‘us’ and ‘them’ are often constructed amongst these groups, which are in turn difficult to grasp as they share common historical linkages. This paper attempts to grapple with such complex relationships the studied groups and their assertion as distinct cultural entities while making ethnic boundaries on the basis of socio-cultural identities. Such claims also involve frequent negotiation with the Sate as well as with other ethnic groups, which further creates strife among indigenous groups for tribal identity. The paper argues that identity consciousnesses amongst groups have persisted since the introduction of resource distribution on ethnic lines; therefore, issues of exclusive ethnic identity in the state of Assam can be contextualised within the colonial and post-colonial politics of redrawing ethnic and spatial boundaries. Narrative of the ethnic leaders who are in the forefront of struggle for ST status revealed that it is not merely to secure preferential treatment, but it also encompasses entitlement to land and their socio-cultural identity as aboriginal. While noting the genesis of struggle by the ethnic associations for ST status, this paper will also delineate the interactions among ethnic groups and how the identity of tribe is being performed by them to be included in the official categories of ST.

Keywords: ethnic, identity, sixth schedule, tribe

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6958 Modelling Causal Effects from Complex Longitudinal Data via Point Effects of Treatments

Authors: Xiaoqin Wang, Li Yin

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Background and purpose: In many practices, one estimates causal effects arising from a complex stochastic process, where a sequence of treatments are assigned to influence a certain outcome of interest, and there exist time-dependent covariates between treatments. When covariates are plentiful and/or continuous, statistical modeling is needed to reduce the huge dimensionality of the problem and allow for the estimation of causal effects. Recently, Wang and Yin (Annals of statistics, 2020) derived a new general formula, which expresses these causal effects in terms of the point effects of treatments in single-point causal inference. As a result, it is possible to conduct the modeling via point effects. The purpose of the work is to study the modeling of these causal effects via point effects. Challenges and solutions: The time-dependent covariates often have influences from earlier treatments as well as on subsequent treatments. Consequently, the standard parameters – i.e., the mean of the outcome given all treatments and covariates-- are essentially all different (null paradox). Furthermore, the dimension of the parameters is huge (curse of dimensionality). Therefore, it can be difficult to conduct the modeling in terms of standard parameters. Instead of standard parameters, we have use point effects of treatments to develop likelihood-based parametric approach to the modeling of these causal effects and are able to model the causal effects of a sequence of treatments by modeling a small number of point effects of individual treatment Achievements: We are able to conduct the modeling of the causal effects from a sequence of treatments in the familiar framework of single-point causal inference. The simulation shows that our method achieves not only an unbiased estimate for the causal effect but also the nominal level of type I error and a low level of type II error for the hypothesis testing. We have applied this method to a longitudinal study of COVID-19 mortality among Scandinavian countries and found that the Swedish approach performed far worse than the other countries' approach for COVID-19 mortality and the poor performance was largely due to its early measure during the initial period of the pandemic.

Keywords: causal effect, point effect, statistical modelling, sequential causal inference

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