Search results for: interval estimation
Commenced in January 2007
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Edition: International
Paper Count: 2705

Search results for: interval estimation

635 Direct and Residual Effects of Boron and Zinc on Growth and Nutrient Status of Rice and Wheat Crop

Authors: M. Saleem, M. Shahnawaz, A. W. Gandahi, S. M. Bhatti

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The micronutrients boron and zinc deficiencies are extensive in the areas of rice-wheat cropping system. Optimum levels of these nutrients in soil are necessary for healthy crop growth. Since rice and wheat are major staple food of worlds’ populace, the higher yields and nutrition status of these crops has direct effect on the health of human being and economy of the country. A field study was conducted to observe the direct and residual effect of two selected micronutrients boron (B) and zinc (Zn)) on rice and wheat crop growth and its grain nutrient status. Each plot received either B or Zn at the rates of 0, 1, 2, 3 and 4 kg B ha⁻¹, and 5, 10, 15 and 20 kg Zn ha⁻¹, combined B and Zn application at 1 kg B and 5 kg Zn ha⁻¹, 2 kg B and 10 kg Zn ha⁻¹. Colemanite ore were used as source of B and zinc sulfate for Zn. The second season wheat crop was planted in the same plots after the interval period of 30 days and during this time gap soil was fallow. Boron and Zn application significantly enhanced the plant height, number of tillers, Grains panicle⁻¹ seed index fewer empty grains panicle⁻¹ and yield of rice crop at all defined levels as compared to control. The highest yield (10.00 tons/ha) was recorded at 2 Kg B, 10 Kg Zn ha⁻¹ rates. Boron and Zn concentration in grain and straw significantly increased. The application of B also improved the nutrition status of rice as B, protein and total carbohydrates content of grain augmented. The analysis of soil samples collected after harvest of rice crop showed that the B and Zn content in post-harvest soil samples was high in colemanite and zinc sulfate applied plots. The residual B and Zn were also effectual for the second season wheat crop, as the growth parameters plant height, number of tillers, earhead length, weight 1000 grains, B and Zn content of grain significantly improved. The highest wheat grain yield (4.23 tons/ha) was recorded at the residual rates of 2 kg B and 10 kg Zn ha⁻¹ than the other treatments. This study showed that one application of B and Zn can increase crop yields for at least two consecutive seasons and the mineral colemanite can confidently be used as source of B for rice crop because very small quantities of these nutrients are consumed by first season crop and remaining amount was present in soil which were used by second season wheat crop for healthy growth. Consequently, there is no need to apply these micronutrients to the following crop when it is applied on the previous one.

Keywords: residual boron, zinc, rice, wheat

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634 Critical Success Factors Quality Requirement Change Management

Authors: Jamshed Ahmad, Abdul Wahid Khan, Javed Ali Khan

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Managing software quality requirements change management is a difficult task in the field of software engineering. Avoiding incoming changes result in user dissatisfaction while accommodating to many requirement changes may delay product delivery. Poor requirements management is solely considered the primary cause of the software failure. It becomes more challenging in global software outsourcing. Addressing success factors in quality requirement change management is desired today due to the frequent change requests from the end-users. In this research study, success factors are recognized and scrutinized with the help of a systematic literature review (SLR). In total, 16 success factors were identified, which significantly impacted software quality requirement change management. The findings show that Proper Requirement Change Management, Rapid Delivery, Quality Software Product, Access to Market, Project Management, Skills and Methodologies, Low Cost/Effort Estimation, Clear Plan and Road Map, Agile Processes, Low Labor Cost, User Satisfaction, Communication/Close Coordination, Proper Scheduling and Time Constraints, Frequent Technological Changes, Robust Model, Geographical distribution/Cultural differences are the key factors that influence software quality requirement change. The recognized success factors and validated with the help of various research methods, i.e., case studies, interviews, surveys and experiments. These factors are then scrutinized in continents, database, company size and period of time. Based on these findings, requirement change will be implemented in a better way.

Keywords: global software development, requirement engineering, systematic literature review, success factors

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633 IoT and Deep Learning approach for Growth Stage Segregation and Harvest Time Prediction of Aquaponic and Vermiponic Swiss Chards

Authors: Praveen Chandramenon, Andrew Gascoyne, Fideline Tchuenbou-Magaia

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Aquaponics offers a simple conclusive solution to the food and environmental crisis of the world. This approach combines the idea of Aquaculture (growing fish) to Hydroponics (growing vegetables and plants in a soilless method). Smart Aquaponics explores the use of smart technology including artificial intelligence and IoT, to assist farmers with better decision making and online monitoring and control of the system. Identification of different growth stages of Swiss Chard plants and predicting its harvest time is found to be important in Aquaponic yield management. This paper brings out the comparative analysis of a standard Aquaponics with a Vermiponics (Aquaponics with worms), which was grown in the controlled environment, by implementing IoT and deep learning-based growth stage segregation and harvest time prediction of Swiss Chards before and after applying an optimal freshwater replenishment. Data collection, Growth stage classification and Harvest Time prediction has been performed with and without water replenishment. The paper discusses the experimental design, IoT and sensor communication with architecture, data collection process, image segmentation, various regression and classification models and error estimation used in the project. The paper concludes with the results comparison, including best models that performs growth stage segregation and harvest time prediction of the Aquaponic and Vermiponic testbed with and without freshwater replenishment.

Keywords: aquaponics, deep learning, internet of things, vermiponics

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632 Improving Fault Tolerance and Load Balancing in Heterogeneous Grid Computing Using Fractal Transform

Authors: Saad M. Darwish, Adel A. El-Zoghabi, Moustafa F. Ashry

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The popularity of the Internet and the availability of powerful computers and high-speed networks as low-cost commodity components are changing the way we use computers today. These technical opportunities have led to the possibility of using geographically distributed and multi-owner resources to solve large-scale problems in science, engineering, and commerce. Recent research on these topics has led to the emergence of a new paradigm known as Grid computing. To achieve the promising potentials of tremendous distributed resources, effective and efficient load balancing algorithms are fundamentally important. Unfortunately, load balancing algorithms in traditional parallel and distributed systems, which usually run on homogeneous and dedicated resources, cannot work well in the new circumstances. In this paper, the concept of a fast fractal transform in heterogeneous grid computing based on R-tree and the domain-range entropy is proposed to improve fault tolerance and load balancing algorithm by improve connectivity, communication delay, network bandwidth, resource availability, and resource unpredictability. A novel two-dimension figure of merit is suggested to describe the network effects on load balance and fault tolerance estimation. Fault tolerance is enhanced by adaptively decrease replication time and message cost while load balance is enhanced by adaptively decrease mean job response time. Experimental results show that the proposed method yields superior performance over other methods.

Keywords: Grid computing, load balancing, fault tolerance, R-tree, heterogeneous systems

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631 An Estimating Equation for Survival Data with a Possibly Time-Varying Covariates under a Semiparametric Transformation Models

Authors: Yemane Hailu Fissuh, Zhongzhan Zhang

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An estimating equation technique is an alternative method of the widely used maximum likelihood methods, which enables us to ease some complexity due to the complex characteristics of time-varying covariates. In the situations, when both the time-varying covariates and left-truncation are considered in the model, the maximum likelihood estimation procedures become much more burdensome and complex. To ease the complexity, in this study, the modified estimating equations those have been given high attention and considerations in many researchers under semiparametric transformation model was proposed. The purpose of this article was to develop the modified estimating equation under flexible and general class of semiparametric transformation models for left-truncated and right censored survival data with time-varying covariates. Besides the commonly applied Cox proportional hazards model, such kind of problems can be also analyzed with a general class of semiparametric transformation models to estimate the effect of treatment given possibly time-varying covariates on the survival time. The consistency and asymptotic properties of the estimators were intuitively derived via the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. The characteristics of the estimators in the finite sample performance for the proposed model were illustrated via simulation studies and Stanford heart transplant real data examples. To sum up the study, the bias for covariates has been adjusted by estimating density function for the truncation time variable. Then the effect of possibly time-varying covariates was evaluated in some special semiparametric transformation models.

Keywords: EM algorithm, estimating equation, semiparametric transformation models, time-to-event outcomes, time varying covariate

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630 An Analysis of the Impact of Government Budget Deficits on Economic Performance. A Zimbabwean Perspective

Authors: Tafadzwa Shumba, Rose C. Nyatondo, Regret Sunge

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This research analyses the impact of budget deficits on the economic performance of Zimbabwe. The study employs the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) confines testing method to co-integration and long-run estimation using time series data from 1980-2018. The Augmented Dick Fuller (ADF) and the Granger approach were used to testing for stationarity and causality among the factors. Co-integration test results affirm a long term association between GDP development rate and descriptive factors. Causality test results show a unidirectional connection between budget shortfall to GDP development and bi-directional causality amid debt and budget deficit. This study also found unidirectional causality from debt to GDP growth rate. ARDL estimates indicate a significantly positive long term and significantly negative short term impact of budget shortfall on GDP. This suggests that budget deficits have a short-run growth retarding effect and a long-run growth-inducing effect. The long-run results follow the Keynesian theory that posits that fiscal deficits result in an increase in GDP growth. Short-run outcomes follow the neoclassical theory. In light of these findings, the government is recommended to minimize financing of recurrent expenditure using a budget deficit. To achieve sustainable growth and development, the government needs to spend an absorbable budget deficit focusing on capital projects such as the development of human capital and infrastructure.

Keywords: ARDL, budget deficit, economic performance, long run

Procedia PDF Downloads 97
629 Sustainable Land Use Evaluation Based on Preservative Approach: Neighborhoods of Susa City

Authors: Somaye Khademi, Elahe Zoghi Hoseini, Mostafa Norouzi

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Determining the manner of land-use and the spatial structure of cities on the one hand, and the economic value of each piece of land, on the other hand, land-use planning is always considered as the main part of urban planning. In this regard, emphasizing the efficient use of land, the sustainable development approach has presented a new perspective on urban planning and consequently on its most important pillar, i.e. land-use planning. In order to evaluate urban land-use, it has been attempted in this paper to select the most significant indicators affecting urban land-use and matching sustainable development indicators. Due to the significance of preserving ancient monuments and the surroundings as one of the main pillars of achieving sustainability, in this research, sustainability indicators have been selected emphasizing the preservation of ancient monuments and historical observance of the city of Susa as one of the historical cities of Iran. It has also been attempted to integrate these criteria with other land-use sustainability indicators. For this purpose, Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) and the AHP model have been used for providing maps displaying spatial density and combining layers as well as providing final maps respectively. Moreover, the rating of sustainability will be studied in different districts of the city of Shush so as to evaluate the status of land sustainability in different parts of the city. The results of the study show that different neighborhoods of Shush do not have the same sustainability in land-use such that neighborhoods located in the eastern half of the city, i.e. the new neighborhoods, have a higher sustainability than those of the western half. It seems that the allocation of a high percentage of these areas to arid lands and historical areas is one of the main reasons for their sustainability.

Keywords: city of Susa, historical heritage, land-use evaluation, urban sustainable development

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628 Spectroscopic Relation between Open Cluster and Globular Cluster

Authors: Robin Singh, Mayank Nautiyal, Priyank Jain, Vatasta Koul, Vaibhav Sharma

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The curiosity to investigate the space and its mysteries was dependably the main impetus of human interest, as the particle of livings exists from the "debut de l'Univers" (beginning of the Universe) typified with its few other living things. The sharp drive to uncover the secrets of stars and their unusual deportment was dependably an ignitor of stars investigation. As humankind lives in civilizations and states, stars likewise live in provinces named ‘clusters’. Clusters are separates into 2 composes i.e. open clusters and globular clusters. An open cluster is a gathering of thousand stars that were moulded from a comparable goliath sub-nuclear cloud and for the most part; contain Propulsion I (extremely metal-rich) and Propulsion II (mild metal-rich), where globular clusters are around gathering of more than thirty thousand stars that circles a galactic focus and basically contain Propulsion III (to a great degree metal-poor) stars. Futurology of this paper lies in the spectroscopic investigation of globular clusters like M92 and NGC419 and open clusters like M34 and IC2391 in different color bands by using software like VIREO virtual observatory, Aladin, CMUNIWIN, and MS-Excel. Assessing the outcome Hertzsprung-Russel (HR) diagram with exemplary cosmological models like Einstein model, De Sitter and Planck survey demonstrate for a superior age estimation of respective clusters. Colour-Magnitude Diagram of these clusters was obtained by photometric analysis in g and r bands which further transformed into BV bands which will unravel the idea of stars exhibit in the individual clusters.

Keywords: color magnitude diagram, globular clusters, open clusters, Einstein model

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627 MOVIDA.polis: Physical Activity mHealth Based Platform

Authors: Rui Fonseca-Pinto, Emanuel Silva, Rui Rijo, Ricardo Martinho, Bruno Carreira

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The sedentary lifestyle is associated to the development of chronic noncommunicable diseases (obesity, hypertension, Diabetes Mellitus Type 2) and the World Health Organization, given the evidence that physical activity is determinant for individual and collective health, defined the Physical Activity Level (PAL) as a vital signal. Strategies for increasing the practice of physical activity in all age groups have emerged from the various social organizations (municipalities, universities, health organizations, companies, social groups) by increasingly developing innovative strategies to promote motivation strategies and conditions to the practice of physical activity. The adaptation of cities to the new paradigms of sustainable mobility has provided the adaptation of urban training circles and mobilized citizens to combat sedentarism. This adaptation has accompanied the technological evolution and makes possible the use of mobile technology to monitor outdoor training programs and also, through the network connection (IoT), use the training data to make personalized recommendations. This work presents a physical activity counseling platform to be used in the physical maintenance circuits of urban centers, the MOVIDA.polis. The platform consists of a back office for the management of circuits and training stations, and for a mobile application for monitoring the user performance during workouts. Using a QRcode, each training station is recognized by the App and based on the individual performance records (effort perception, heart rate variation) artificial intelligence algorithms are used to make a new personalized recommendation. The results presented in this work were obtained during the proof of concept phase, which was carried out in the PolisLeiria training circuit in the city of Leiria (Portugal). It was possible to verify the increase in adherence to the practice of physical activity, as well as to decrease the interval between training days. Moreover, the AI-based recommendation acts as a partner in the training and an additional challenging factor. The platform is ready to be used by other municipalities in order to reduce the levels of sedentarism and approach the weekly goal of 150 minutes of moderate physical activity. Acknowledgments: This work was supported by Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia FCT- Portugal and CENTRO2020 under the scope of MOVIDA project: 02/SAICT/2016 – 23878.

Keywords: physical activity, mHealth, urban training circuits, health promotion

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626 Modeling and Numerical Simulation of Heat Transfer and Internal Loads at Insulating Glass Units

Authors: Nina Penkova, Kalin Krumov, Liliana Zashcova, Ivan Kassabov

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The insulating glass units (IGU) are widely used in the advanced and renovated buildings in order to reduce the energy for heating and cooling. Rules for the choice of IGU to ensure energy efficiency and thermal comfort in the indoor space are well known. The existing of internal loads - gage or vacuum pressure in the hermetized gas space, requires additional attention at the design of the facades. The internal loads appear at variations of the altitude, meteorological pressure and gas temperature according to the same at the process of sealing. The gas temperature depends on the presence of coatings, coating position in the transparent multi-layer system, IGU geometry and space orientation, its fixing on the facades and varies with the climate conditions. An algorithm for modeling and numerical simulation of thermal fields and internal pressure in the gas cavity at insulating glass units as function of the meteorological conditions is developed. It includes models of the radiation heat transfer in solar and infrared wave length, indoor and outdoor convection heat transfer and free convection in the hermetized gas space, assuming the gas as compressible. The algorithm allows prediction of temperature and pressure stratification in the gas domain of the IGU at different fixing system. The models are validated by comparison of the numerical results with experimental data obtained by Hot-box testing. Numerical calculations and estimation of 3D temperature, fluid flow fields, thermal performances and internal loads at IGU in window system are implemented.

Keywords: insulating glass units, thermal loads, internal pressure, CFD analysis

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625 A Stochastic Diffusion Process Based on the Two-Parameters Weibull Density Function

Authors: Meriem Bahij, Ahmed Nafidi, Boujemâa Achchab, Sílvio M. A. Gama, José A. O. Matos

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Stochastic modeling concerns the use of probability to model real-world situations in which uncertainty is present. Therefore, the purpose of stochastic modeling is to estimate the probability of outcomes within a forecast, i.e. to be able to predict what conditions or decisions might happen under different situations. In the present study, we present a model of a stochastic diffusion process based on the bi-Weibull distribution function (its trend is proportional to the bi-Weibull probability density function). In general, the Weibull distribution has the ability to assume the characteristics of many different types of distributions. This has made it very popular among engineers and quality practitioners, who have considered it the most commonly used distribution for studying problems such as modeling reliability data, accelerated life testing, and maintainability modeling and analysis. In this work, we start by obtaining the probabilistic characteristics of this model, as the explicit expression of the process, its trends, and its distribution by transforming the diffusion process in a Wiener process as shown in the Ricciaardi theorem. Then, we develop the statistical inference of this model using the maximum likelihood methodology. Finally, we analyse with simulated data the computational problems associated with the parameters, an issue of great importance in its application to real data with the use of the convergence analysis methods. Overall, the use of a stochastic model reflects only a pragmatic decision on the part of the modeler. According to the data that is available and the universe of models known to the modeler, this model represents the best currently available description of the phenomenon under consideration.

Keywords: diffusion process, discrete sampling, likelihood estimation method, simulation, stochastic diffusion process, trends functions, bi-parameters weibull density function

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624 Comparative Analysis of the Third Generation of Research Data for Evaluation of Solar Energy Potential

Authors: Claudineia Brazil, Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals, Luciane Teresa Salvi, Rafael Haag

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Renewable energy sources are dependent on climatic variability, so for adequate energy planning, observations of the meteorological variables are required, preferably representing long-period series. Despite the scientific and technological advances that meteorological measurement systems have undergone in the last decades, there is still a considerable lack of meteorological observations that form series of long periods. The reanalysis is a system of assimilation of data prepared using general atmospheric circulation models, based on the combination of data collected at surface stations, ocean buoys, satellites and radiosondes, allowing the production of long period data, for a wide gamma. The third generation of reanalysis data emerged in 2010, among them is the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) developed by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), these data have a spatial resolution of 0.50 x 0.50. In order to overcome these difficulties, it aims to evaluate the performance of solar radiation estimation through alternative data bases, such as data from Reanalysis and from meteorological satellites that satisfactorily meet the absence of observations of solar radiation at global and/or regional level. The results of the analysis of the solar radiation data indicated that the reanalysis data of the CFSR model presented a good performance in relation to the observed data, with determination coefficient around 0.90. Therefore, it is concluded that these data have the potential to be used as an alternative source in locations with no seasons or long series of solar radiation, important for the evaluation of solar energy potential.

Keywords: climate, reanalysis, renewable energy, solar radiation

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623 An Approach to Correlate the Statistical-Based Lorenz Method, as a Way of Measuring Heterogeneity, with Kozeny-Carman Equation

Authors: H. Khanfari, M. Johari Fard

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Dealing with carbonate reservoirs can be mind-boggling for the reservoir engineers due to various digenetic processes that cause a variety of properties through the reservoir. A good estimation of the reservoir heterogeneity which is defined as the quality of variation in rock properties with location in a reservoir or formation, can better help modeling the reservoir and thus can offer better understanding of the behavior of that reservoir. Most of reservoirs are heterogeneous formations whose mineralogy, organic content, natural fractures, and other properties vary from place to place. Over years, reservoir engineers have tried to establish methods to describe the heterogeneity, because heterogeneity is important in modeling the reservoir flow and in well testing. Geological methods are used to describe the variations in the rock properties because of the similarities of environments in which different beds have deposited in. To illustrate the heterogeneity of a reservoir vertically, two methods are generally used in petroleum work: Dykstra-Parsons permeability variations (V) and Lorenz coefficient (L) that are reviewed briefly in this paper. The concept of Lorenz is based on statistics and has been used in petroleum from that point of view. In this paper, we correlated the statistical-based Lorenz method to a petroleum concept, i.e. Kozeny-Carman equation and derived the straight line plot of Lorenz graph for a homogeneous system. Finally, we applied the two methods on a heterogeneous field in South Iran and discussed each, separately, with numbers and figures. As expected, these methods show great departure from homogeneity. Therefore, for future investment, the reservoir needs to be treated carefully.

Keywords: carbonate reservoirs, heterogeneity, homogeneous system, Dykstra-Parsons permeability variations (V), Lorenz coefficient (L)

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622 Immuno-Modulatory Role of Weeds in Feeds of Cyprinus Carpio

Authors: Vipin Kumar Verma, Neeta Sehgal, Om Prakash

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Cyprinus carpio has a wide spread occurrence in the lakes and rivers of Europe and Asia. Heavy losses in natural environment due to anthropogenic activities, including pollution as well as pathogenic diseases have landed this fish in IUCN red list of vulnerable species. The significance of a suitable diet in preserving the health status of fish is widely recognized. In present study, artificial feed supplemented with leaves of two weed plants, Eichhornia crassipes and Ricinus communis were evaluated for their role on the fish immune system. To achieve this objective fish were acclimatized to laboratory conditions (25 ± 1 °C; 12 L: 12D) for 10 days prior to start of experiment and divided into 4 groups: non-challenged (negative control= A), challenged [positive control (B) and experimental (C & D)]. Group A, B were fed with non-supplemented feed while group C & D were fed with feed supplemented with 5% Eichhornia crassipes and 5% Ricinus communis respectively. Supplemented feeds were evaluated for their effect on growth, health, immune system and disease resistance in fish when challenged with Vibrio harveyi. Fingerlings of C. carpio (weight, 2.0±0.5 g) were exposed with fresh overnight culture of V. harveyi through bath immunization (concentration 2 Χ 105) for 2 hours on 10 days interval for 40 days. The growth was monitored through increase in their relative weight. The rate of mortality due to bacterial infection as well as due to effect of feed was recorded accordingly. Immune response of fish was analyzed through differential leucocyte count, percentage phagocytosis and phagocytic index. The effect of V. harveyi on fish organs were examined through histo-pathological examination of internal organs like spleen, liver and kidney. The change in the immune response was also observed through gene expression analysis. The antioxidant potential of plant extracts was measured through DPPH and FRAP assay and amount of total phenols and flavonoids were calculates through biochemical analysis. The chemical composition of plant’s methanol extracts was determined by GC-MS analysis, which showed presence of various secondary metabolites and other compounds. Investigation revealed immuno-modulatory effect of plants, when supplemented with the artificial feed of fish.

Keywords: immuno-modulation, gc-ms, Cyprinus carpio, Eichhornia crassipes, Ricinus communis

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621 Implications of Human Cytomegalovirus as a Protective Factor in the Pathogenesis of Breast Cancer

Authors: Marissa Dallara, Amalia Ardeljan, Lexi Frankel, Nadia Obaed, Naureen Rashid, Omar Rashid

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Human Cytomegalovirus (HCMV) is a ubiquitous virus that remains latent in approximately 60% of individuals in developed countries. Viral load is kept at a minimum due to a robust immune response that is produced in most individuals who remain asymptomatic. HCMV has been recently implicated in cancer research because it may impose oncomodulatory effects on tumor cells of which it infects, which could have an impact on the progression of cancer. HCMV has been implicated in increased pathogenicity of certain cancers such as gliomas, but in contrast, it can also exhibit anti-tumor activity. HCMV seropositivity has been recorded in tumor cells, but this may also have implications in decreased pathogenesis of certain forms of cancer such as leukemia as well as increased pathogenesis in others. This study aimed to investigate the correlation between cytomegalovirus and the incidence of breast cancer. Methods The data used in this project was extracted from a Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA) compliant national database to analyze the patients infected versus patients not infection with cytomegalovirus using ICD-10, ICD-9 codes. Permission to utilize the database was given by Holy Cross Health, Fort Lauderdale, for the purpose of academic research. Data analysis was conducted using standard statistical methods. Results The query was analyzed for dates ranging from January 2010 to December 2019, which resulted in 14,309 patients in both the infected and control groups, respectively. The two groups were matched by age range and CCI score. The incidence of breast cancer was 1.642% and 235 patients in the cytomegalovirus group compared to 4.752% and 680 patients in the control group. The difference was statistically significant by a p-value of less than 2.2x 10^-16 with an odds ratio of 0.43 (0.4 to 0.48) with a 95% confidence interval. Investigation into the effects of HCMV treatment modalities, including Valganciclovir, Cidofovir, and Foscarnet, on breast cancer in both groups was conducted, but the numbers were insufficient to yield any statistically significant correlations. Conclusion This study demonstrates a statistically significant correlation between cytomegalovirus and a reduced incidence of breast cancer. If HCMV can exert anti-tumor effects on breast cancer and inhibit growth, it could potentially be used to formulate immunotherapy that targets various types of breast cancer. Further evaluation is warranted to assess the implications of cytomegalovirus in reducing the incidence of breast cancer.

Keywords: human cytomegalovirus, breast cancer, immunotherapy, anti-tumor

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620 Bacteriological and Mineral Analyses of Leachate Samples from Erifun Dumpsite, Ado-Ekiti, Ekiti State, Nigeria

Authors: Adebowale T. Odeyemi, Oluwafemi A. Ajenifuja

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The leachate samples collected from Erifun dumpsite along Federal Polythenic road, Ado-Ekiti, Ekiti State, were subjected to bacteriological and mineral analyses. The bacteriological estimation and isolation were done using serial dilution and pour plating techniques. Antibiotic susceptibility test was done using agar disc diffusion technique. Atomic Absorption Spectophotometry method was used to analyze the heavy metal contents in the leachate samples. The bacterial and coliform counts ranged from 4.2 × 105 CFU/ml to 2.97 × 106 CFU/ml and 5.0 × 104 CFU/ml to 2.45 x 106 CFU/ml, respectively. The isolated bacteria and percentage of occurrence include Bacillus cereus (22%), Enterobacter aerogenes (18%), Staphylococcus aureus (16%), Proteus vulgaris (14%), Escherichia coli (14%), Bacillus licheniformis (12%) and Klebsiella aerogenes (4%). The mineral value ranged as follow; iron (21.30mg/L - 25.60mg/L), zinc (1.80mg/L - 5.60mg/L), copper (1.00mg/L - 2.60mg/L), chromium (0.50mg/L - 1.30mg/L), candium (0.20mg/L - 1.30mg/L), nickel (0.20mg/L - 0.80mg/L), lead (0.05mg/L-0.30mg/L), cobalt (0.03mg/L - 0.30mg/L) and in all samples manganese was not detected. The entire organisms isolated exhibited a high level of resistance to most of the antibiotics used. There is an urgent need for awareness to be created about the present situation of the leachate in Erifun, on the need for treatment of the nearby stream and other water sources before they can be used for drinking and other domestic use. In conclusion, a good method of waste disposal is required in those communities to prevent leachate formation, percolation, and runoff into water bodies during the raining season.

Keywords: antibiotic susceptibility, dumpsite, bacteriological analysis, heavy metal

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619 Characterization of Petrophysical Properties of Reservoirs in Bima Formation, Northeastern Nigeria: Implication for Hydrocarbon Exploration

Authors: Gabriel Efomeh Omolaiye, Jimoh Ajadi, Olatunji Seminu, Yusuf Ayoola Jimoh, Ubulom Daniel

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Identification and characterization of petrophysical properties of reservoirs in the Bima Formation were undertaken to understand their spatial distribution and impacts on hydrocarbon saturation in the highly heterolithic siliciclastic sequence. The study was carried out using nine well logs from Maiduguri and Baga/Lake sub-basins within the Borno Basin. The different log curves were combined to decipher the lithological heterogeneity of the serrated sand facies and to aid the geologic correlation of sand bodies within the sub-basins. Evaluation of the formation reveals largely undifferentiated to highly serrated and lenticular sand bodies from which twelve reservoirs named Bima Sand-1 to Bima Sand-12 were identified. The reservoir sand bodies are bifurcated by shale beds, which reduced their thicknesses variably from 0.61 to 6.1 m. The shale content in the sand bodies ranged from 11.00% (relatively clean) to high shale content of 88.00%. The formation also has variable porosity values, with calculated total porosity ranged as low as 10.00% to as high as 35.00%. Similarly, effective porosity values spanned between 2.00 to 24.00%. The irregular porosity values also accounted for a wide range of field average permeability estimates computed for the formation, which measured between 0.03 to 319.49 mD. Hydrocarbon saturation (Sh) in the thin lenticular sand bodies also varied from 40.00 to 78.00%. Hydrocarbon was encountered in three intervals in Ga-1, four intervals in Da-1, two intervals in Ar-1, and one interval in Ye-1. Ga-1 well encountered 30.78 m thick of hydrocarbon column in 14 thin sand lobes in Bima Sand-1, with thicknesses from 0.60 m to 5.80 m and average saturation of 51.00%, while Bima Sand-2 intercepted 45.11 m thick of hydrocarbon column in 12 thin sand lobes with an average saturation of 61.00% and Bima Sand-9 has 6.30 m column in 4 thin sand lobes. Da-1 has hydrocarbon in Bima Sand-8 (5.30 m, Sh of 58.00% in 5 sand lobes), Bima Sand-10 (13.50 m, Sh of 52.00% in 6 sand lobes), Bima Sand-11 (6.20 m, Sh of 58.00% in 2 sand lobes) and Bima Sand-12 (16.50 m, Sh of 66% in 6 sand lobes). In the Ar-1 well, hydrocarbon occurs in Bima Sand-3 (2.40 m column, Sh of 48% in a sand lobe) and Bima Sand-9 (6.0 m, Sh of 58% in a sand lobe). Ye-1 well only intersected 0.5 m hydrocarbon in Bima Sand-1 with 78% saturation. Although Bima Formation has variable saturation of hydrocarbon, mainly gas in Maiduguri, and Baga/Lake sub-basins of the research area, its highly thin serrated sand beds, coupled with very low effective porosity and permeability in part, would pose a significant exploitation challenge. The sediments were deposited in a fluvio-lacustrine environment, resulting in a very thinly laminated or serrated alternation of sand and shale beds lithofacies.

Keywords: Bima, Chad Basin, fluvio-lacustrine, lithofacies, serrated sand

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618 Selective Separation of Amino Acids by Reactive Extraction with Di-(2-Ethylhexyl) Phosphoric Acid

Authors: Alexandra C. Blaga, Dan Caşcaval, Alexandra Tucaliuc, Madalina Poştaru, Anca I. Galaction

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Amino acids are valuable chemical products used in in human foods, in animal feed additives and in the pharmaceutical field. Recently, there has been a noticeable rise of amino acids utilization throughout the world to include their use as raw materials in the production of various industrial chemicals: oil gelating agents (amino acid-based surfactants) to recover effluent oil in seas and rivers and poly(amino acids), which are attracting attention for biodegradable plastics manufacture. The amino acids can be obtained by biosynthesis or from protein hydrolysis, but their separation from the obtained mixtures can be challenging. In the last decades there has been a continuous interest in developing processes that will improve the selectivity and yield of downstream processing steps. The liquid-liquid extraction of amino acids (dissociated at any pH-value of the aqueous solutions) is possible only by using the reactive extraction technique, mainly with extractants of organophosphoric acid derivatives, high molecular weight amines and crown-ethers. The purpose of this study was to analyse the separation of nine amino acids of acidic character (l-aspartic acid, l-glutamic acid), basic character (l-histidine, l-lysine, l-arginine) and neutral character (l-glycine, l-tryptophan, l-cysteine, l-alanine) by reactive extraction with di-(2-ethylhexyl)phosphoric acid (D2EHPA) dissolved in butyl acetate. The results showed that the separation yield is controlled by the pH value of the aqueous phase: the reactive extraction of amino acids with D2EHPA is possible only if the amino acids exist in aqueous solution in their cationic forms (pH of aqueous phase below the isoeletric point). The studies for individual amino acids indicated the possibility of selectively separate different groups of amino acids with similar acidic properties as a function of aqueous solution pH-value: the maximum yields are reached for a pH domain of 2–3, then strongly decreasing with the pH increase. Thus, for acidic and neutral amino acids, the extraction becomes impossible at the isolelectric point (pHi) and for basic amino acids at a pH value lower than pHi, as a result of the carboxylic group dissociation. From the results obtained for the separation from the mixture of the nine amino acids, at different pH, it can be observed that all amino acids are extracted with different yields, for a pH domain of 1.5–3. Over this interval, the extract contains only the amino acids with neutral and basic character. For pH 5–6, only the neutral amino acids are extracted and for pH > 6 the extraction becomes impossible. Using this technique, the total separation of the following amino acids groups has been performed: neutral amino acids at pH 5–5.5, basic amino acids and l-cysteine at pH 4–4.5, l-histidine at pH 3–3.5 and acidic amino acids at pH 2–2.5.

Keywords: amino acids, di-(2-ethylhexyl) phosphoric acid, reactive extraction, selective extraction

Procedia PDF Downloads 431
617 Analysis of Tourism Development Level and Research on Improvement Strategies - Take Chongqing as an Example

Authors: Jiajun Lu, Yun Ma

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As a member of the tertiary industry, tourism is an important driving factor for urban economic development. As a well-known tourist city in China, according to statistics, the added value of tourism and related industries in 2022 will reach 106.326 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, accounting for 3.7% of the city's GDP. However, the overall tourism development level of Chongqing is seriously unbalanced, and the tourism strength of the main urban area is much higher than that of the southeast Chongqing, northeast Chongqing and the surrounding city tourism area, and the overall tourism strength of the other three regions is relatively balanced. Based on the estimation of tourism development level and the geographic detector method, this paper finds that the important factors affecting the tourism development level of non-main urban areas in Chongqing are A-level tourist attractions. Through GIS geospatial analysis technology and SPSS data correlation research method, the spatial distribution characteristics and influencing factors of A-level tourist attractions in Chongqing were quantitatively analyzed by using data such as geospatial data cloud, relevant documents of Chongqing Municipal Commission of Culture and Tourism Development, planning cloud, and relevant statistical yearbooks. The results show that: (1) The spatial distribution of tourist attractions in non-main urban areas of Chongqing is agglomeration and uneven. (2) The spatial distribution of A-level tourist attractions in non-main urban areas of Chongqing is affected by ecological factors, and the degree of influence is in the order of water factors> topographic factors > green space factors.

Keywords: tourist attractions, geographic detectors, quantitative research, ecological factors, GIS technology, SPSS analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 13
616 Estimation of Carbon Uptake of Seoul City Street Trees in Seoul and Plans for Increase Carbon Uptake by Improving Species

Authors: Min Woo Park, Jin Do Chung, Kyu Yeol Kim, Byoung Uk Im, Jang Woo Kim, Hae Yeul Ryu

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Nine representative species of trees among all the street trees were selected to estimate the absorption amount of carbon dioxide emitted from street trees in Seoul calculating the biomass, amount of carbon saved, and annual absorption amount of carbon dioxide in each of the species. Planting distance of street trees in Seoul was 1,851,180 m, the number of planting lines was 1,287, the number of planted trees was 284,498 and 46 species of trees were planted as of 2013. According to the result of plugging the quantity of species of street trees in Seoul on the absorption amount of each of the species, 120,097 ton of biomass, 60,049.8 ton of amount of carbon saved, and 11,294 t CO2/year of annual absorption amount of carbon dioxide were calculated. Street ratio mentioned on the road statistics in Seoul in 2022 is 23.13%. If the street trees are assumed to be increased in the same rate, the number of street trees in Seoul was calculated to be 294,823. The planting distance was estimated to be 1,918,360 m, and the annual absorption amount of carbon dioxide was measured to be 11,704 t CO2/year. Plans for improving the annual absorption amount of carbon dioxide from street trees were established based on the expected amount of absorption. First of all, it is to improve the annual absorption amount of carbon dioxide by increasing the number of planted street trees after adjusting the planting distance of street trees. If adjusting the current planting distance to 6 m, it was turned out that 12,692.7 t CO2/year was absorbed on an annual basis. Secondly, it is to change the species of trees to tulip trees that represent high absorption rate. If increasing the proportion of tulip trees to 30% up to 2022, the annual absorption rate of carbon dioxide was calculated to be 17804.4 t CO2/year.

Keywords: absorption of carbon dioxide, source of absorbing carbon dioxide, trees in city, improving species

Procedia PDF Downloads 362
615 Analysis of Earthquake Potential and Shock Level Scenarios in South Sulawesi

Authors: Takhul Bakhtiar

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In South Sulawesi Province, there is an active Walanae Fault causing this area to frequently experience earthquakes. This study aims to determine the level of seismicity of the earthquake in order to obtain the potential for earthquakes in the future. The estimation of the potential for earthquakes is then made a scenario model determine the estimated level of shocks as an effort to mitigate earthquake disasters in the region. The method used in this study is the Gutenberg Richter Method through the statistical likelihood approach. This study used earthquake data in the South Sulawesi region in 1972 - 2022. The research location is located at the coordinates of 3.5° – 5.5° South Latitude and 119.5° – 120.5° East Longitude and divided into two segments, namely the northern segment at the coordinates of 3.5° – 4.5° South Latitude and 119,5° – 120,5° East Longitude then the southern segment with coordinates of 4.5° – 5.5° South Latitude and 119,5° – 120.5° East Longitude. This study uses earthquake parameters with a magnitude > 1 and a depth < 50 km. The results of the analysis show that the potential for earthquakes in the next ten years with a magnitude of M = 7 in the northern segment is estimated at 98.81% with an estimated shock level of VI-VII MMI around the cities of Pare-Pare, Barru, Pinrang and Soppeng then IV - V MMI in the cities of Bulukumba, Selayar, Makassar and Gowa. In the southern segment, the potential for earthquakes in the next ten years with a magnitude of M = 7 is estimated at 32.89% with an estimated VI-VII MMI shock level in the cities of Bulukumba, Selayar, Makassar and Gowa, then III-IV MMI around the cities of Pare-Pare, Barru, Pinrang and Soppeng.

Keywords: Gutenberg Richter, likelihood method, seismicity, shakemap and MMI scale

Procedia PDF Downloads 120
614 Aerodynamic Modeling Using Flight Data at High Angle of Attack

Authors: Rakesh Kumar, A. K. Ghosh

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The paper presents the modeling of linear and nonlinear longitudinal aerodynamics using real flight data of Hansa-3 aircraft gathered at low and high angles of attack. The Neural-Gauss-Newton (NGN) method has been applied to model the linear and nonlinear longitudinal dynamics and estimate parameters from flight data. Unsteady aerodynamics due to flow separation at high angles of attack near stall has been included in the aerodynamic model using Kirchhoff’s quasi-steady stall model. NGN method is an algorithm that utilizes Feed Forward Neural Network (FFNN) and Gauss-Newton optimization to estimate the parameters and it does not require any a priori postulation of mathematical model or solving of equations of motion. NGN method was validated on real flight data generated at moderate angles of attack before application to the data at high angles of attack. The estimates obtained from compatible flight data using NGN method were validated by comparing with wind tunnel values and the maximum likelihood estimates. Validation was also carried out by comparing the response of measured motion variables with the response generated by using estimates a different control input. Next, NGN method was applied to real flight data generated by executing a well-designed quasi-steady stall maneuver. The results obtained in terms of stall characteristics and aerodynamic parameters were encouraging and reasonably accurate to establish NGN as a method for modeling nonlinear aerodynamics from real flight data at high angles of attack.

Keywords: parameter estimation, NGN method, linear and nonlinear, aerodynamic modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 445
613 Impact of Vehicle Travel Characteristics on Level of Service: A Comparative Analysis of Rural and Urban Freeways

Authors: Anwaar Ahmed, Muhammad Bilal Khurshid, Samuel Labi

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The effect of trucks on the level of service is determined by considering passenger car equivalents (PCE) of trucks. The current version of Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) uses a single PCE value for all tucks combined. However, the composition of truck traffic varies from location to location; therefore a single PCE-value for all trucks may not correctly represent the impact of truck traffic at specific locations. Consequently, present study developed separate PCE values for single-unit and combination trucks to replace the single value provided in the HCM on different freeways. Site specific PCE values, were developed using concept of spatial lagging headways (the distance from the rear bumper of a leading vehicle to the rear bumper of the following vehicle) measured from field traffic data. The study used data from four locations on a single urban freeway and three different rural freeways in Indiana. Three-stage-least-squares (3SLS) regression techniques were used to generate models that predicted lagging headways for passenger cars, single unit trucks (SUT), and combination trucks (CT). The estimated PCE values for single-unit and combination truck for basic urban freeways (level terrain) were: 1.35 and 1.60, respectively. For rural freeways the estimated PCE values for single-unit and combination truck were: 1.30 and 1.45, respectively. As expected, traffic variables such as vehicle flow rates and speed have significant impacts on vehicle headways. Study results revealed that the use of separate PCE values for different truck classes can have significant influence on the LOS estimation.

Keywords: level of service, capacity analysis, lagging headway, trucks

Procedia PDF Downloads 355
612 Artificial intelligence and Law

Authors: Mehrnoosh Abouzari, Shahrokh Shahraei

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With the development of artificial intelligence in the present age, intelligent machines and systems have proven their actual and potential capabilities and are mindful of increasing their presence in various fields of human life in the fields of industry, financial transactions, marketing, manufacturing, service affairs, politics, economics and various branches of the humanities .Therefore, despite the conservatism and prudence of law enforcement, the traces of artificial intelligence can be seen in various areas of law. Including judicial robotics capability estimation, intelligent judicial decision making system, intelligent defender and attorney strategy adjustment, dissemination and regulation of different and scattered laws in each case to achieve judicial coherence and reduce opinion, reduce prolonged hearing and discontent compared to the current legal system with designing rule-based systems, case-based, knowledge-based systems, etc. are efforts to apply AI in law. In this article, we will identify the ways in which AI is applied in its laws and regulations, identify the dominant concerns in this area and outline the relationship between these two areas in order to answer the question of how artificial intelligence can be used in different areas of law and what the implications of this application will be. The authors believe that the use of artificial intelligence in the three areas of legislative, judiciary and executive power can be very effective in governments' decisions and smart governance, and helping to reach smart communities across human and geographical boundaries that humanity's long-held dream of achieving is a global village free of violence and personalization and human error. Therefore, in this article, we are going to analyze the dimensions of how to use artificial intelligence in the three legislative, judicial and executive branches of government in order to realize its application.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, law, intelligent system, judge

Procedia PDF Downloads 119
611 Development and Validation of Selective Methods for Estimation of Valaciclovir in Pharmaceutical Dosage Form

Authors: Eman M. Morgan, Hayam M. Lotfy, Yasmin M. Fayez, Mohamed Abdelkawy, Engy Shokry

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Two simple, selective, economic, safe, accurate, precise and environmentally friendly methods were developed and validated for the quantitative determination of valaciclovir (VAL) in the presence of its related substances R1 (acyclovir), R2 (guanine) in bulk powder and in the commercial pharmaceutical product containing the drug. Method A is a colorimetric method where VAL selectively reacts with ferric hydroxamate and the developed color was measured at 490 nm over a concentration range of 0.4-2 mg/mL with percentage recovery 100.05 ± 0.58 and correlation coefficient 0.9999. Method B is a reversed phase ultra performance liquid chromatographic technique (UPLC) which is considered superior in technology to the high-performance liquid chromatography with respect to speed, resolution, solvent consumption, time, and cost of analysis. Efficient separation was achieved on Agilent Zorbax CN column using ammonium acetate (0.1%) and acetonitrile as a mobile phase in a linear gradient program. Elution time for the separation was less than 5 min and ultraviolet detection was carried out at 256 nm over a concentration range of 2-50 μg/mL with mean percentage recovery 100.11±0.55 and correlation coefficient 0.9999. The proposed methods were fully validated as per International Conference on Harmonization specifications and effectively applied for the analysis of valaciclovir in pure form and tablets dosage form. Statistical comparison of the results obtained by the proposed and official or reported methods revealed no significant difference in the performance of these methods regarding the accuracy and precision respectively.

Keywords: hydroxamic acid, related substances, UPLC, valaciclovir

Procedia PDF Downloads 247
610 Sympatric Calanus Species: A High Temporal Resolution of Reproductive Timing and Stage Composition

Authors: Mads Schultz, Galice Hoarau, Marvin Choquet

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Members of the genus Calanus are key species in the North Atlantic and Arctic marine ecosystems due to their vast abundance and their ability to accumulate high amounts of lipid. As a link between primary producers and higher trophic levels, the temporal presence of each Calanus species is important in a time of changing communities and northward distribution shifts. This study focused on the temporal niches of the sympatric species Calanus helgolandicus, Calanus finmarchicus, Calanus glacialis, and Calanus hyperboreus in Skjerstad fjord, a Norwegian fjord (67˚14’N, 14 ˚44’E). Three depth intervals were sampled monthly over a year, targeting copepodite stages of the genus Calanus. Species determination was carried out genetically using insertion/deletion markers. In addition, during the reproductive season (Jan-May), weekly samples of the upper 50 meters of the water column targeting nauplii and 5 depth intervals targeting copepodites were collected. Nauplii samples were sorted into two groups (NI-NIII and NIV-NVI), and species were genetically identified. Specimens from stage CIV to adults from each depth interval of copepodite sampling were photographed in order to generate a supporting timeline of visual traits, including gonad maturation stage, presence of stomach content, and total lipid content. The most abundant species were Calanus finmarchicus and Calanus glacialis, followed by Calanus hyperboreus. These species were present in the water column throughout the year, whereas Calanus helgolandicus, the least abundant species, was only present during the summer and autumn period. Each species showed distinct temporal niches, with Calanus finmarchicus occupying the upper 50 meters longer than any of the other species. Calanus hyperboreus dominates in abundance early in the spring but are outnumbered by Calanus glacialis and Calanus finmarchicus after spring bloom sets in. In Skjerstad fjord, Calanus hyperboreus is a clear capital breeder with a long period of nauplii presence before the spring bloom. Calanus glacialis and Calanus finmarchicus both utilize income breeding, with Calanus glacialis developing to the larger nauplii stages quicker than Calanus finmarchicus, but also having a shorter reproduction period. Indeed, the “traditional Arctic” species Calanus hyperboreus and Calanus glacialis appear to end their reproduction period earlier than the North Atlantic Calanus finmarchicus.

Keywords: calanus, depth distribution, reproduction, stage composition, temporal niches

Procedia PDF Downloads 150
609 Classical and Bayesian Inference of the Generalized Log-Logistic Distribution with Applications to Survival Data

Authors: Abdisalam Hassan Muse, Samuel Mwalili, Oscar Ngesa

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A generalized log-logistic distribution with variable shapes of the hazard rate was introduced and studied, extending the log-logistic distribution by adding an extra parameter to the classical distribution, leading to greater flexibility in analysing and modeling various data types. The proposed distribution has a large number of well-known lifetime special sub-models such as; Weibull, log-logistic, exponential, and Burr XII distributions. Its basic mathematical and statistical properties were derived. The method of maximum likelihood was adopted for estimating the unknown parameters of the proposed distribution, and a Monte Carlo simulation study is carried out to assess the behavior of the estimators. The importance of this distribution is that its tendency to model both monotone (increasing and decreasing) and non-monotone (unimodal and bathtub shape) or reversed “bathtub” shape hazard rate functions which are quite common in survival and reliability data analysis. Furthermore, the flexibility and usefulness of the proposed distribution are illustrated in a real-life data set and compared to its sub-models; Weibull, log-logistic, and BurrXII distributions and other parametric survival distributions with 3-parmaeters; like the exponentiated Weibull distribution, the 3-parameter lognormal distribution, the 3- parameter gamma distribution, the 3-parameter Weibull distribution, and the 3-parameter log-logistic (also known as shifted log-logistic) distribution. The proposed distribution provided a better fit than all of the competitive distributions based on the goodness-of-fit tests, the log-likelihood, and information criterion values. Finally, Bayesian analysis and performance of Gibbs sampling for the data set are also carried out.

Keywords: hazard rate function, log-logistic distribution, maximum likelihood estimation, generalized log-logistic distribution, survival data, Monte Carlo simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 202
608 Retail Strategy to Reduce Waste Keeping High Profit Utilizing Taylor's Law in Point-of-Sales Data

Authors: Gen Sakoda, Hideki Takayasu, Misako Takayasu

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Waste reduction is a fundamental problem for sustainability. Methods for waste reduction with point-of-sales (POS) data are proposed, utilizing the knowledge of a recent econophysics study on a statistical property of POS data. Concretely, the non-stationary time series analysis method based on the Particle Filter is developed, which considers abnormal fluctuation scaling known as Taylor's law. This method is extended for handling incomplete sales data because of stock-outs by introducing maximum likelihood estimation for censored data. The way for optimal stock determination with pricing the cost of waste reduction is also proposed. This study focuses on the examination of the methods for large sales numbers where Taylor's law is obvious. Numerical analysis using aggregated POS data shows the effectiveness of the methods to reduce food waste maintaining a high profit for large sales numbers. Moreover, the way of pricing the cost of waste reduction reveals that a small profit loss realizes substantial waste reduction, especially in the case that the proportionality constant  of Taylor’s law is small. Specifically, around 1% profit loss realizes half disposal at =0.12, which is the actual  value of processed food items used in this research. The methods provide practical and effective solutions for waste reduction keeping a high profit, especially with large sales numbers.

Keywords: food waste reduction, particle filter, point-of-sales, sustainable development goals, Taylor's law, time series analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 131
607 Political Deprivations, Political Risk and the Extent of Skilled Labor Migration from Pakistan: Finding of a Time-Series Analysis

Authors: Syed Toqueer Akhter, Hussain Hamid

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Over the last few decades an upward trend has been observed in the case of labor migration from Pakistan. The emigrants are not just economically motivated and in search of a safe living environment towards more developed countries in Europe, North America and Middle East. The opportunity cost of migration comes in the form of brain drain that is the loss of qualified and skilled human capital. Throughout the history of Pakistan, situations of political instability have emerged ranging from violation of political rights, political disappearances to political assassinations. Providing security to the citizens is a major issue faced in Pakistan due to increase in crime and terrorist activities. The aim of the study is to test the impact of political instability, appearing in the form of political terror, violation of political rights and civil liberty on skilled migration of labor. Three proxies are used to measure the political instability; political terror scale (based on a scale of 1-5, the political terror and violence that a country encounters in a particular year), political rights (a rating of 1-7, that describes political rights as the ability for the people to participate without restraint in political process) and civil liberty (a rating of 1-7, civil liberty is defined as the freedom of expression and rights without government intervention). Using time series data from 1980-2011, the distributed lag models were used for estimation because migration is not a onetime process, previous events and migration can lead to more migration. Our research clearly shows that political instability appearing in the form of political terror, political rights and civil liberty all appeared significant in explaining the extent of skilled migration of Pakistan.

Keywords: skilled labor migration, political terror, political rights, civil liberty, distributed lag model

Procedia PDF Downloads 1028
606 Estimation of Source Parameters and Moment Tensor Solution through Waveform Modeling of 2013 Kishtwar Earthquake

Authors: Shveta Puri, Shiv Jyoti Pandey, G. M. Bhat, Neha Raina

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TheJammu and Kashmir region of the Northwest Himalaya had witnessed many devastating earthquakes in the recent past and has remained unexplored for any kind of seismic investigations except scanty records of the earthquakes that occurred in this region in the past. In this study, we have used local seismic data of year 2013 that was recorded by the network of Broadband Seismographs in J&K. During this period, our seismic stations recorded about 207 earthquakes including two moderate events of Mw 5.7 on 1st May, 2013 and Mw 5.1 of 2nd August, 2013.We analyzed the events of Mw 3-4.6 and the main events only (for minimizing the error) for source parameters, b value and sense of movement through waveform modeling for understanding seismotectonic and seismic hazard of the region. It has been observed that most of the events are bounded between 32.9° N – 33.3° N latitude and 75.4° E – 76.1° E longitudes, Moment Magnitude (Mw) ranges from Mw 3 to 5.7, Source radius (r), from 0.21 to 3.5 km, stress drop, from 1.90 bars to 71.1 bars and Corner frequency, from 0.39 – 6.06 Hz. The b-value for this region was found to be 0.83±0 from these events which are lower than the normal value (b=1), indicating the area is under high stress. The travel time inversion and waveform inversion method suggest focal depth up to 10 km probably above the detachment depth of the Himalayan region. Moment tensor solution of the (Mw 5.1, 02:32:47 UTC) main event of 2ndAugust suggested that the source fault is striking at 295° with dip of 33° and rake value of 85°. It was found that these events form intense clustering of small to moderate events within a narrow zone between Panjal Thrust and Kishtwar Window. Moment tensor solution of the main events and their aftershocks indicating thrust type of movement is occurring in this region.

Keywords: b-value, moment tensor, seismotectonics, source parameters

Procedia PDF Downloads 313