Search results for: context based planning model
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 42431

Search results for: context based planning model

40361 Built-Own-Lease-Transfer (BOLT): “An Alternative Model to Subsidy Schemes in Public Private Partnership Projects”

Authors: Nirali Shukla, Neel Shah

Abstract:

The World Bank Institute (WBI) is undertaking a review of government interventions aimed at facilitating sustainable investment in public private partnerships (PPPs) in various under developed countries. The study presents best practice for applying financial model to make PPPs financially viable. The lessons presented here, if properly implemented, can help countries use limited funds to attract more private investment, get more infrastructure built and, as a result, achieve greater economic growth. The four countries Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, and India in total develop an average of nearly US$50 billion in PPPs per year. There are a range of policies and institutional arrangements governments use to provide subsidies to PPPs. For example, some countries have created dedicated agencies, or ‘funds’, capitalized with money from the national budget to manage and allocate subsidies. Other countries have established well-defined policies for appropriating subsidies on an ad hoc basis through an annual budget process. In this context, subsidies are direct fiscal contributions or grants paid by the government to a project when revenues from user fees are insufficient to cover all capital and operating costs while still providing private investors with a reasonable rate of return. Without subsidies, some infrastructure projects that would provide economic or social gains, but are not financially viable, would go undeveloped. But the Financial model of BOLT (PPP) model described in this study suggests that it is most feasible option rather than going for subsidy schemes for making infrastructure projects financially viable. The major advantage for implementing this model is the government money is saved and can be used for other projects as well as the private investors are getting better rate of return than subsidized schemes.

Keywords: PPP, BOLT, subsidy schemes, financial model

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40360 Initiating the Provision of Adolescent Reproductive Health Information and Services (ARHIS) to Communities in Quezon City, Beginning with District 2

Authors: Erickson Bernardo, Caridad Pineda

Abstract:

The project Adolescent Reproductive Health Information and Services (ARHIS) is a nine-month pilot project which intends to bridge the existing gap between reproductive health information and services, particularly with regard to family planning and HIV, among adolescent boys and girls aged 10-19 years in the 2nd Congressional District of Quezon City, in the Philippines. It aims to increase adolescents' and young people's awareness about their reproductive health concerns and at the same time make a wide range of reproductive health (RH) services accessible and available to them. A number of methodologies were utilized in the implementation of the project. At the onset, a baseline survey was conducted by community mobilizers to gather a situational analysis of adolescents' and young people's issues and concerns. The results of this survey were then presented in a multi-stakeholders' meeting to gather community support and foster their involvement. Further, interactive learning sessions (ILS) on a variety of reproductive health topics, among young people, parents and community leaders based on the results of the baseline survey was conducted. With regard to reproductive health service provision, both facility-based delivery and conduct of outreach activities were employed. In the span of nine months, the project was able to yield the following results: • A total of 521 adolescents and youth (AY) were reached by ILS on puberty, responsible relationships, teenage pregnancy, family planning, as well as HIV & AIDS. • A total of 218 parents and community leaders were informed of AY RH-related issues and concerns. • More than 350 AYs availed of a wide range of FP services including pills – both combined oral and progestin-only, and progestin-only injectables and implants. • More than 380 AYs availed of condoms as means of STI and HIV prevention. A noble initiative of the project is the utilization of a "condom distributor", a youth leader who has been educated about STI and HIV prevention as well as correct condom use, as the focal point for condom access in the community. • A total of 25 young people, parents, and community leaders were identified as ARHIS champions who have been instrumental in the achievement of project deliverables through their dedication and commitment to support the project. The concept of adolescent sexual and reproductive health (ASRH) remains to be a major challenge in the Philippine context. This is due to the fact that majority of Filipinos are still not keen on discussing issues and concerns related to ASRH, albeit the alarming number of teenage pregnancies and the rapid increase of HIV cases among 15- 24 year olds. In addition, Republic Act 10354 or the Responsible Parenthood and Reproductive Health Act of 2012, requires minor adolescents to present a written parental consent prior to accessing RH services. However, with the involvement and support of parents and key community stakeholders, these barriers may be addressed. The project has demonstrated how adolescents and young people yearn for reproductive health information and services.

Keywords: adolescent sexual reproductive health, barriers to access, reproductive health information and services, teenage pregnancies

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40359 Space Vector Pulse Width Modulation Based Design and Simulation of a Three-Phase Voltage Source Converter Systems

Authors: Farhan Beg

Abstract:

A space vector based pulse width modulation control technique for the three-phase PWM converter is proposed in this paper. The proposed control scheme is based on a synchronous reference frame model. High performance and efficiency is obtained with regards to the DC bus voltage and the power factor considerations of the PWM rectifier thus leading to low losses. MATLAB/SIMULINK are used as a platform for the simulations and a SIMULINK model is presented in the paper. The results show that the proposed model demonstrates better performance and properties compared to the traditional SPWM method and the method improves the dynamic performance of the closed loop drastically. For the space vector based pulse width modulation, sine signal is the reference waveform and triangle waveform is the carrier waveform. When the value of sine signal is larger than triangle signal, the pulse will start producing to high; and then when the triangular signals higher than sine signal, the pulse will come to low. SPWM output will change by changing the value of the modulation index and frequency used in this system to produce more pulse width. When more pulse width is produced, the output voltage will have lower harmonics contents and the resolution will increase.

Keywords: power factor, SVPWM, PWM rectifier, SPWM

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40358 Transient and Persistent Efficiency Estimation for Electric Grid Utilities Based on Meta-Frontier: Comparative Analysis of China and Japan

Authors: Bai-Chen Xie, Biao Li

Abstract:

With the deepening of international exchanges and investment, the international comparison of power grid firms has become the focus of regulatory authorities. Ignoring the differences in the economic environment, resource endowment, technology, and other aspects of different countries or regions may lead to efficiency bias. Based on the Meta-frontier model, this paper divides China and Japan into two groups by using the data of China and Japan from 2006 to 2020. While preserving the differences between the two countries, it analyzes and compares the efficiency of the transmission and distribution industries of the two countries. Combined with the four-component stochastic frontier model, the efficiency is divided into transient and persistent efficiency. We found that there are obvious differences between the transmission and distribution sectors in China and Japan. On the one hand, the inefficiency of the two countries is mostly caused by long-term and structural problems. The key to improve the efficiency of the two countries is to focus more on solving long-term and structural problems. On the other hand, the long-term and structural problems that cause the inefficiency of the two countries are not the same. Quality factors have different effects on the efficiency of the two countries, and this different effect is captured by the common frontier model but is offset in the overall model. Based on these findings, this paper proposes some targeted policy recommendations.

Keywords: transmission and distribution industries, transient efficiency, persistent efficiency, meta-frontier, international comparison

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40357 Beyond Possibilities: Re-Reading Republican Ankara

Authors: Zelal Çınar

Abstract:

This paper aims to expose the effects of the ideological program of Turkish Republic on city planning, through the first plan of Ankara. As the new capital, Ankara was planned to be the ‘showcase’ of modern Turkey. It was to represent all new ideologies and the country’s cultural similarities with the west. At the same time it was to underline the national identity and independence of Turkish republic. To this end, a new plan for the capital was designed by German city planner Carl Christopher Lörcher. Diametrically opposed with the existing fabric of the city, this plan was built on the basis of papers and plans, on ideological aims. On the contrary, this paper argues that the city is a machine of possibilities, rather than a clear, materialized system.

Keywords: architecture, ideology, modernization, urban planning

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40356 Intelligent Agent-Based Model for the 5G mmWave O2I Technology Adoption

Authors: Robert Joseph M. Licup

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The deployment of the fifth-generation (5G) mobile system through mmWave frequencies is the new solution in the requirement to provide higher bandwidth readily available for all users. The usage pattern of the mobile users has moved towards either the work from home or online classes set-up because of the pandemic. Previous mobile technologies can no longer meet the high speed, and bandwidth requirement needed, given the drastic shift of transactions to the home. The millimeter-wave (mmWave) underutilized frequency is utilized by the fifth-generation (5G) cellular networks that support multi-gigabit-per-second (Gbps) transmission. However, due to its short wavelengths, high path loss, directivity, blockage sensitivity, and narrow beamwidth are some of the technical challenges that need to be addressed. Different tools, technologies, and scenarios are explored to support network design, accurate channel modeling, implementation, and deployment effectively. However, there is a big challenge on how the consumer will adopt this solution and maximize the benefits offered by the 5G Technology. This research proposes to study the intricacies of technology diffusion, individual attitude, behaviors, and how technology adoption will be attained. The agent based simulation model shaped by the actual applications, technology solution, and related literature was used to arrive at a computational model. The research examines the different attributes, factors, and intricacies that can affect each identified agent towards technology adoption.

Keywords: agent-based model, AnyLogic, 5G O21, 5G mmWave solutions, technology adoption

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40355 Stability Bound of Ruin Probability in a Reduced Two-Dimensional Risk Model

Authors: Zina Benouaret, Djamil Aissani

Abstract:

In this work, we introduce the qualitative and quantitative concept of the strong stability method in the risk process modeling two lines of business of the same insurance company or an insurance and re-insurance companies that divide between them both claims and premiums with a certain proportion. The approach proposed is based on the identification of the ruin probability associate to the model considered, with a stationary distribution of a Markov random process called a reversed process. Our objective, after clarifying the condition and the perturbation domain of parameters, is to obtain the stability inequality of the ruin probability which is applied to estimate the approximation error of a model with disturbance parameters by the considered model. In the stability bound obtained, all constants are explicitly written.

Keywords: Markov chain, risk models, ruin probabilities, strong stability analysis

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40354 The Georgians’ Discourses of National Identity in the Context of Europeanisation

Authors: Lia Tsuladze

Abstract:

The paper discusses the Georgians’ online discourses of national identity in the context of Europeanisation focusing on two periods - initialing of the EU-Georgia Association Agreement in November 2013 and signing it in June 2014. Discussing how the Georgians’ aspiration to integrate with the EU is combined with their perception of Europeanisation as a threat to the national identity, the author explores how the national sentiment is expressed in the above discourses while performed for the local vs. international audiences.

Keywords: Europeanisation, frontstage, backstage discourses, Georgia, national identity

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40353 Vortices Structure in Internal Laminar and Turbulent Flows

Authors: Farid Gaci, Zoubir Nemouchi

Abstract:

A numerical study of laminar and turbulent fluid flows in 90° bend of square section was carried out. Three-dimensional meshes, based on hexahedral cells, were generated. The QUICK scheme was employed to discretize the convective term in the transport equations. The SIMPLE algorithm was adopted to treat the velocity-pressure coupling. The flow structure obtained showed interesting features such as recirculation zones and counter-rotating pairs of vortices. The performance of three different turbulence models was evaluated: the standard k- ω model, the SST k-ω model and the Reynolds Stress Model (RSM). Overall, it was found that, the multi-equation model performed better than the two equation models. In fact, the existence of four pairs of counter rotating cells, in the straight duct upstream of the bend, were predicted by the RSM closure but not by the standard eddy viscosity model nor the SST k-ω model. The analysis of the results led to a better understanding of the induced three dimensional secondary flows and the behavior of the local pressure coefficient and the friction coefficient.

Keywords: curved duct, counter-rotating cells, secondary flow, laminar, turbulent

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40352 Early Warning System of Financial Distress Based On Credit Cycle Index

Authors: Bi-Huei Tsai

Abstract:

Previous studies on financial distress prediction choose the conventional failing and non-failing dichotomy; however, the distressed extent differs substantially among different financial distress events. To solve the problem, “non-distressed”, “slightly-distressed” and “reorganization and bankruptcy” are used in our article to approximate the continuum of corporate financial health. This paper explains different financial distress events using the two-stage method. First, this investigation adopts firm-specific financial ratios, corporate governance and market factors to measure the probability of various financial distress events based on multinomial logit models. Specifically, the bootstrapping simulation is performed to examine the difference of estimated misclassifying cost (EMC). Second, this work further applies macroeconomic factors to establish the credit cycle index and determines the distressed cut-off indicator of the two-stage models using such index. Two different models, one-stage and two-stage prediction models, are developed to forecast financial distress, and the results acquired from different models are compared with each other, and with the collected data. The findings show that the two-stage model incorporating financial ratios, corporate governance and market factors has the lowest misclassification error rate. The two-stage model is more accurate than the one-stage model as its distressed cut-off indicators are adjusted according to the macroeconomic-based credit cycle index.

Keywords: Multinomial logit model, corporate governance, company failure, reorganization, bankruptcy

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40351 Higher Education for Sustainable Development and Proposed Performance-based Funding Model for Universities in Ontario: Tensions and Coherence Between Provincial and Federal Policies

Authors: Atiqa Marium

Abstract:

In 2015, all 193 UN Member countries adopted the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, which is an ambitious 15- year plan to address some of the most pressing issues the world faces. Goal 4 is about Quality Education which highlights the importance of inclusive and quality education for sustainable development. Sustainable Development Goal 10 focuses on reducing inequalities within and among countries. In June 2019, Federal Government in Canada released “Towards Canada’s 2030 Agenda National Strategy”, which was an important step to move the 2030 Agenda forward. In April 2019, the Ontario government announced the performance-based funding model for publically assisted colleges and universities in Ontario, which is now part of the universities’ budget 2024-2025. The literature review has shown that the funding model has been implemented by different governments to achieve objectives. However, this model has also resulted in conflicting consequences like reducing university autonomy, education quality/ academic standards, and increased equity concerns. The primary focus of this paper will be to analyze the tensions and coherence between the proposed funding model for education for sustainable development goals and targets set by Canada’s 2030 Agenda National Strategy. Considering that the literature review has provided evidence that the performance-based funding model has resulted in reducing quality of education and increased equity issues in other countries, it will be interesting to see how this proposed funding will align with the SDGs of “Quality Education” and “Reduced Inequalities”. This paper will be well-suited for Volume 4, with the theme of re-visioning institutional impact and sustainability. This paper will underscore the importance of policy coherence between federal and provincial policies for higher education institutions in Ontario for better institutional impact and helping universities in the attainment of goals set in 2030 Agenda towards education for sustainable development.

Keywords: performance-based funding model, education for sustainable development, policy coherence, sustainable development gaols

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40350 Identifying and Prioritizing Critical Success Factors (Csfs) in Retaining and Developing Knowledge Workers in Oil and Gas Project–Based Companies

Authors: Ehsan Samimi, Mohammaa Ali Shahosseeni, Ali Abasltian, Shahriar Shafaghi

Abstract:

Background/Objectives: Voluntary turnover and early retirement request by specialists and experienced people in project-based organizations (PBO) has caused many problems in finding suitable experts to execute the projects. Methods/Statistical analysis: The present study is a descriptive and applied research. Research population consists of KWs in oil and gas PBO. The engineers in these organizations were considered as research sample. Interviews and questionnaire were used to gather information. Interviews with experts were used to identify factors and questionnaires were utilized to identify the importance and prioritization. 72 factors were identified and categorized into 9 groups within organizational and HR initiative levels. Results: Results of the research indicate the priority of each group of factors according to the proposed model in the view of KWs in oil, gas and petrochemical industries. On this basis, the following factors have the highest effect ratio based on the respondents’ point of view: 1. knowledge management 2. Performance appraisal system 3. Communication 4.Training and development 5.Job design and analysis 6. Employment policies 7. Career planning 8. Project/organizational factors 9. Salary and rewards. Additionally, in each group the priority of effective sub-factors has been identified as the result of the research .The results support the definitions of KWs and influence of factors examined and specified by similar studies in retention and development of KWs. The high importance of knowledge management and low rank for salary and rewards can be mentioned as example in this regard. Despite the priority of each group of factors the uniqueness of the result is due to identification of effective factors in the specific industry (oil and gas) and type of organization (PBO). Conclusion/Application: The findings of present study can be used to devise plans for retaining and developing KWs in PBO especially in oil and gas industry.

Keywords: project–based organizations, knowledge workers, HR management, turnover, retaining and developing employees

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40349 Segregation Patterns of Trees and Grass Based on a Modified Age-Structured Continuous-Space Forest Model

Authors: Jian Yang, Atsushi Yagi

Abstract:

Tree-grass coexistence system is of great importance for forest ecology. Mathematical models are being proposed to study the dynamics of tree-grass coexistence and the stability of the systems. However, few of the models concentrates on spatial dynamics of the tree-grass coexistence. In this study, we modified an age-structured continuous-space population model for forests, obtaining an age-structured continuous-space population model for the tree-grass competition model. In the model, for thermal competitions, adult trees can out-compete grass, and grass can out-compete seedlings. We mathematically studied the model to make sure tree-grass coexistence solutions exist. Numerical experiments demonstrated that a fraction of area that trees or grass occupies can affect whether the coexistence is stable or not. We also tried regulating the mortality of adult trees with other parameters and the fraction of area trees and grass occupies were fixed; results show that the mortality of adult trees is also a factor affecting the stability of the tree-grass coexistence in this model.

Keywords: population-structured models, stabilities of ecosystems, thermal competitions, tree-grass coexistence systems

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40348 The Aspect of the Human Bias in Decision Making within Quality Management Systems and LEAN Theory

Authors: Adriana Avila Zuniga Nordfjeld

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This paper provides a literature review to document the state of the art with respect to handling 'human bias' in decision making within the established quality management systems (QMS) and LEAN theory, in the context of shipbuilding. Previous research shows that in shipbuilding there is a huge deviation from the planned man-hours under the project management to the actual man-hours used because of errors in planning and reworks caused by human bias in the information flows among others. This reduces the efficiency and increases operational costs. Thus, the research question is how QMS and LEAN handle biases. The findings show the gap in studying the integration of methods to handle human bias in decision making into QMS and lean, not only within shipbuilding but also in general. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed for researchers and practitioners in the areas of decision making QMS, LEAN, and future research is suggested.

Keywords: human bias, decision making, LEAN shipbuilding, quality management systems

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40347 A Lagrangian Hamiltonian Computational Method for Hyper-Elastic Structural Dynamics

Authors: Hosein Falahaty, Hitoshi Gotoh, Abbas Khayyer

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Performance of a Hamiltonian based particle method in simulation of nonlinear structural dynamics is subjected to investigation in terms of stability and accuracy. The governing equation of motion is derived based on Hamilton's principle of least action, while the deformation gradient is obtained according to Weighted Least Square method. The hyper-elasticity models of Saint Venant-Kirchhoff and a compressible version similar to Mooney- Rivlin are engaged for the calculation of second Piola-Kirchhoff stress tensor, respectively. Stability along with accuracy of numerical model is verified by reproducing critical stress fields in static and dynamic responses. As the results, although performance of Hamiltonian based model is evaluated as being acceptable in dealing with intense extensional stress fields, however kinds of instabilities reveal in the case of violent collision which can be most likely attributed to zero energy singular modes.

Keywords: Hamilton's principle of least action, particle-based method, hyper-elasticity, analysis of stability

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40346 Efficient Chiller Plant Control Using Modern Reinforcement Learning

Authors: Jingwei Du

Abstract:

The need of optimizing air conditioning systems for existing buildings calls for control methods designed with energy-efficiency as a primary goal. The majority of current control methods boil down to two categories: empirical and model-based. To be effective, the former heavily relies on engineering expertise and the latter requires extensive historical data. Reinforcement Learning (RL), on the other hand, is a model-free approach that explores the environment to obtain an optimal control strategy often referred to as “policy”. This research adopts Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) to improve chiller plant control, and enable the RL agent to collaborate with experienced engineers. It exploits the fact that while the industry lacks historical data, abundant operational data is available and allows the agent to learn and evolve safely under human supervision. Thanks to the development of language models, renewed interest in RL has led to modern, online, policy-based RL algorithms such as the PPO. This research took inspiration from “alignment”, a process that utilizes human feedback to finetune the pretrained model in case of unsafe content. The methodology can be summarized into three steps. First, an initial policy model is generated based on minimal prior knowledge. Next, the prepared PPO agent is deployed so feedback from both critic model and human experts can be collected for future finetuning. Finally, the agent learns and adapts itself to the specific chiller plant, updates the policy model and is ready for the next iteration. Besides the proposed approach, this study also used traditional RL methods to optimize the same simulated chiller plants for comparison, and it turns out that the proposed method is safe and effective at the same time and needs less to no historical data to start up.

Keywords: chiller plant, control methods, energy efficiency, proximal policy optimization, reinforcement learning

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40345 Current of Drain for Various Values of Mobility in the Gaas Mesfet

Authors: S. Belhour, A. K. Ferouani, C. Azizi

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In recent years, a considerable effort (experience, numerical simulation, and theoretical prediction models) has characterised by high efficiency and low cost. Then an improved physics analytical model for simulating is proposed. The performance of GaAs MESFETs has been developed for use in device design for high frequency. This model is based on mathematical analysis, and a new approach for the standard model is proposed, this approach allowed to conceive applicable model for MESFET’s operating in the turn-one or pinch-off region and valid for the short-channel and the long channel MESFET’s in which the two dimensional potential distribution contributed by the depletion layer under the gate is obtained by conventional approximation. More ever, comparisons between the analytical models with different values of mobility are proposed, and a good agreement is obtained.

Keywords: analytical, gallium arsenide, MESFET, mobility, models

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40344 Supply Air Pressure Control of HVAC System Using MPC Controller

Authors: P. Javid, A. Aeenmehr, J. Taghavifar

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In this paper, supply air pressure of HVAC system has been modeled with second-order transfer function plus dead-time. In HVAC system, the desired input has step changes, and the output of proposed control system should be able to follow the input reference, so the idea of using model based predictive control is proceeded and designed in this paper. The closed loop control system is implemented in MATLAB software and the simulation results are provided. The simulation results show that the model based predictive control is able to control the plant properly.

Keywords: air conditioning system, GPC, dead time, air supply control

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40343 Dynamic Shock Bank Liquidity Analysis

Authors: C. Recommandé, J. C. Blind, A. Clavel, R. Gourichon, V. Le Gal

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Simulations are developed in this paper with usual DSGE model equations. The model is based on simplified version of Smets-Wouters equations in use at European Central Bank which implies 10 macro-economic variables: consumption, investment, wages, inflation, capital stock, interest rates, production, capital accumulation, labour and credit rate, and allows take into consideration the banking system. Throughout the simulations, this model will be used to evaluate the impact of rate shocks recounting the actions of the European Central Bank during 2008.

Keywords: CC-LM, Central Bank, DSGE, liquidity shock, non-standard intervention

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40342 Rethinking Urban Floodplain Management: The Case of Colombo, Sri Lanka

Authors: Malani Herath, Sohan Wijesekera, Jagath Munasingha

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The impact of recent floods become significant, and the extraordinary flood events cause considerable damage to lives, properties, environment and negatively affect the whole development of Colombo urban region. Even though the Colombo urban region experiences recurrent flood impacts, several spatial planning interventions have been taken from time to time since early 20th century. All past plans have adopted a traditional approach to flood management, using infrastructural measures to reduce the chance of flooding together with rigid planning regulations. The existing flood risk management practices do not operate to be acceptable by the local community particular the urban poor. Researchers have constantly reported the differences in estimations of flood risk, priorities, concerns of experts and the local community. Risk-based decision making in flood management is not only a matter of technical facts; it has a significant bearing on how flood risk is viewed by local community and individuals. Moreover, sustainable flood management is an integrated approach, which highlights joint actions of experts and community. This indicates the necessity of further societal discussion on the acceptable level of flood risk indicators to prioritize and identify the appropriate flood management measures in Colombo. The understanding and evaluation of flood risk by local people are important to integrate in the decision-making process. This research questioned about the gap between the acceptable level of flood risk to spatial planners and to the local communities in Colombo. A comprehensive literature review was conducted to prepare a framework to analyze the public perception in Colombo. This research work identifies the factors that affect the variation of flood risk and acceptable levels to both local community and planning authorities.

Keywords: Colombo basin, public perception, urban flood risk, multi-criteria analysis

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40341 Econophysical Approach on Predictability of Financial Crisis: The 2001 Crisis of Turkey and Argentina Case

Authors: Arzu K. Kamberli, Tolga Ulusoy

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Technological developments and the resulting global communication have made the 21st century when large capitals are moved from one end to the other via a button. As a result, the flow of capital inflows has accelerated, and capital inflow has brought with it crisis-related infectiousness. Considering the irrational human behavior, the financial crisis in the world under the influence of the whole world has turned into the basic problem of the countries and increased the interest of the researchers in the reasons of the crisis and the period in which they lived. Therefore, the complex nature of the financial crises and its linearly unexplained structure have also been included in the new discipline, econophysics. As it is known, although financial crises have prediction mechanisms, there is no definite information. In this context, in this study, using the concept of electric field from the electrostatic part of physics, an early econophysical approach for global financial crises was studied. The aim is to define a model that can take place before the financial crises, identify financial fragility at an earlier stage and help public and private sector members, policy makers and economists with an econophysical approach. 2001 Turkey crisis has been assessed with data from Turkish Central Bank which is covered between 1992 to 2007, and for 2001 Argentina crisis, data was taken from IMF and the Central Bank of Argentina from 1997 to 2007. As an econophysical method, an analogy is used between the Gauss's law used in the calculation of the electric field and the forecasting of the financial crisis. The concept of Φ (Financial Flux) has been adopted for the pre-warning of the crisis by taking advantage of this analogy, which is based on currency movements and money mobility. For the first time used in this study Φ (Financial Flux) calculations obtained by the formula were analyzed by Matlab software, and in this context, in 2001 Turkey and Argentina Crisis for Φ (Financial Flux) crisis of values has been confirmed to give pre-warning.

Keywords: econophysics, financial crisis, Gauss's Law, physics

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40340 A Case Study on Problems Originated from Critical Path Method Application in a Governmental Construction Project

Authors: Mohammad Lemar Zalmai, Osman Hurol Turkakin, Cemil Akcay, Ekrem Manisali

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In public construction projects, determining the contract period in the award phase is one of the most important factors. The contract period establishes the baseline for creating the cash flow curve and progress payment planning in the post-award phase. If overestimated, project duration causes losses for both the owner and the contractor. Therefore, it is essential to base construction project duration on reliable forecasting. In Turkey, schedules are usually built using the bar chart (Gantt) schedule, especially for governmental construction agencies. The usage of these schedules is limited for bidding purposes. Although the bar-chart schedule is useful in some cases, it lacks logical connections between activities; it would be harder to obtain the activities that have more effects than others on the project's total duration, especially in large complex projects. In this study, a construction schedule is prepared with Critical Path Method (CPM) that addresses the above-mentioned discrepancies. CPM is a simple and effective method that displays project time and critical paths, showing results of forward and backward calculations with considering the logic relationships between activities; it is a powerful tool for planning and managing all kinds of construction projects and is a very convenient method for the construction industry. CPM provides a much more useful and precise approach than traditional bar-chart diagrams that form the basis of construction planning and control. CPM has two main application utilities in the construction field; the first one is obtaining project duration, which is called an as-planned schedule that includes as-planned activity durations with relationships between subsequent activities. Another utility is during the project execution; each activity is tracked, and their durations are recorded in order to obtain as-built schedule, which is named as a black box of the project. The latter is more useful for delay analysis, and conflict resolutions. These features of CPM have been popular around the world. However, it has not been yet extensively used in Turkey. In this study, a real construction project is investigated as a case study; CPM-based scheduling is used for establishing both of as-built and as-planned schedules. Problems that emerged during the construction phase are identified and categorized. Subsequently, solutions are suggested. Two scenarios were considered. In the first scenario, project progress was monitored based as CPM was used to track and manage progress; this was carried out based on real-time data. In the second scenario, project progress was supposedly tracked based on the assumption that the Gantt chart was used. The S-curves of the two scenarios are plotted and interpreted. Comparing the results, possible faults of the latter scenario are highlighted, and solutions are suggested. The importance of CPM implementation has been emphasized and it has been proposed to make it mandatory for preparation of construction schedule based on CPM for public construction projects contracts.

Keywords: as-built, case-study, critical path method, Turkish government sector projects

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40339 Alternating Expectation-Maximization Algorithm for a Bilinear Model in Isoform Quantification from RNA-Seq Data

Authors: Wenjiang Deng, Tian Mou, Yudi Pawitan, Trung Nghia Vu

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Estimation of isoform-level gene expression from RNA-seq data depends on simplifying assumptions, such as uniform reads distribution, that are easily violated in real data. Such violations typically lead to biased estimates. Most existing methods provide a bias correction step(s), which is based on biological considerations, such as GC content–and applied in single samples separately. The main problem is that not all biases are known. For example, new technologies such as single-cell RNA-seq (scRNA-seq) may introduce new sources of bias not seen in bulk-cell data. This study introduces a method called XAEM based on a more flexible and robust statistical model. Existing methods are essentially based on a linear model Xβ, where the design matrix X is known and derived based on the simplifying assumptions. In contrast, XAEM considers Xβ as a bilinear model with both X and β unknown. Joint estimation of X and β is made possible by simultaneous analysis of multi-sample RNA-seq data. Compared to existing methods, XAEM automatically performs empirical correction of potentially unknown biases. XAEM implements an alternating expectation-maximization (AEM) algorithm, alternating between estimation of X and β. For speed XAEM utilizes quasi-mapping for read alignment, thus leading to a fast algorithm. Overall XAEM performs favorably compared to other recent advanced methods. For simulated datasets, XAEM obtains higher accuracy for multiple-isoform genes, particularly for paralogs. In a differential-expression analysis of a real scRNA-seq dataset, XAEM achieves substantially greater rediscovery rates in an independent validation set.

Keywords: alternating EM algorithm, bias correction, bilinear model, gene expression, RNA-seq

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40338 Testing Causal Model of Depression Based on the Components of Subscales Lifestyle with Mediation of Social Health

Authors: Abdolamir Gatezadeh, Jamal Daghaleh

Abstract:

The lifestyle of individuals is important and determinant for the status of psychological and social health. Recently, especially in developed countries, the relationship between lifestyle and mental illnesses, including depression, has attracted the attention of many people. In order to test the causal model of depression based on lifestyle with mediation of social health in the study, basic and applied methods were used in terms of objective and descriptive-field as well as the data collection. Methods: This study is a basic research type and is in the framework of correlational plans. In this study, the population includes all adults in Ahwaz city. A randomized, multistage sampling of 384 subjects was selected as the subjects. Accordingly, the data was collected and analyzed using structural equation modeling. Results: In data analysis, path analysis indicated the confirmation of the assumed model fit of research. This means that subscales lifestyle has a direct effect on depression and subscales lifestyle through the mediation of social health which in turn has an indirect effect on depression. Discussion and conclusion: According to the results of the research, the depression can be used to explain the components of the lifestyle and social health.

Keywords: depression, subscales lifestyle, social health, causal model

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40337 Enhancing Critical Reflective Practice in Fieldwork Education: An Exploratory Study of the Role of Social Work Agencies in the Welfare Context of Hong Kong

Authors: Yee-May Chan

Abstract:

In recent decades, it is observed that social work agencies have participated actively, and thus, have gradually been more influential in social work education in Hong Kong. The neo-liberal welfare ideologies and changing funding mode have transformed the landscape in social work practice and have also had a major influence on the fieldwork environment in Hong Kong. The aim of this research is to explore the educational role of social work agencies and examine in particular whether they are able to enhance or hinder critical reflective learning in fieldwork. In-depth interviews with 15 frontline social workers and managers in different social work agencies were conducted to collect their views and experience in helping social work students in fieldwork. The overall findings revealed that under the current social welfare context most social workers consider that the most important role of social work agencies in fieldwork is to help students prepare to fit-in the practice requirements and work within agencies’ boundary. The fit-for-purpose and down-to-earth view of fieldwork practice is seen as prevalent among most social workers. This narrow perception of agency’s role seems to be more favourable to competence-based approaches. In contrast, though critical reflection has been seen as important in addressing the changing needs of service users, the role of enhancing critical reflective learning has not been clearly expected or understood by most agency workers. The notion of critical reflection, if considered, has been narrowly perceived in fieldwork learning. The findings suggest that the importance of critical reflection is found to be subordinate to that of practice competence. The lack of critical reflection in the field is somehow embedded in the competence-based social work practice. In general, social work students’ critical reflection has not been adequately supported or enhanced in fieldwork agencies, nor critical reflective practice has been encouraged in fieldwork process. To address this situation, the role of social work agencies in fieldwork should be re-examined. To maximise critical reflective learning in the field, critical reflection as an avowed objective in fieldwork learning should be clearly stated. Concrete suggestions are made to help fieldwork agencies become more prepared to critical reflective learning. It is expected that the research can help social work communities to reflect upon the current realities of fieldwork context and to identify ways to strengthen agencies’ capacities to enhance critical reflective learning and practice of social work students.

Keywords: competence-based social work, critical reflective learning, fieldwork agencies, neo-liberal welfare

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40336 Integrating Assurance and Risk Management of Complex Systems

Authors: Odd Ivar Haugen

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This paper explores the relationship between assurance, risk, and risk management in the context of complex safety-related systems. It introduces a nuanced understanding of assurance and argues that the foundation for grounds for justified confidence in claims made about a complex system is related to the system behaviour. It emphasises the importance of knowledge as the cornerstone of assurance. The paper addresses the challenges of epistemic and aleatory uncertainties inherent in safety-critical systems. A systems approach is proposed to model emergent properties and complexity using the composition, environment, structure, mechanisms (CESM) metamodel, offering a structured framework for analysing system behaviour. The interplay between assurance and risk management is conceptualised through two models: the domain model and the control model. Assurance and risk management are mutually dependent on each other to reduce uncertainty and control risk levels. This work highlights the dual roles of assurance in risk management, acting as an epistemic actuator on the one side and providing feedback about the strength of the justification on the other. Assurance and risk management have inseparable roles in ensuring safety in complex systems.

Keywords: assurance, CESM metamodel, confidence, emergent properties, knowledge, objectivity, risk, system behaviour, system safety

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40335 Explainable Graph Attention Networks

Authors: David Pham, Yongfeng Zhang

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Graphs are an important structure for data storage and computation. Recent years have seen the success of deep learning on graphs such as Graph Neural Networks (GNN) on various data mining and machine learning tasks. However, most of the deep learning models on graphs cannot easily explain their predictions and are thus often labelled as “black boxes.” For example, Graph Attention Network (GAT) is a frequently used GNN architecture, which adopts an attention mechanism to carefully select the neighborhood nodes for message passing and aggregation. However, it is difficult to explain why certain neighbors are selected while others are not and how the selected neighbors contribute to the final classification result. In this paper, we present a graph learning model called Explainable Graph Attention Network (XGAT), which integrates graph attention modeling and explainability. We use a single model to target both the accuracy and explainability of problem spaces and show that in the context of graph attention modeling, we can design a unified neighborhood selection strategy that selects appropriate neighbor nodes for both better accuracy and enhanced explainability. To justify this, we conduct extensive experiments to better understand the behavior of our model under different conditions and show an increase in both accuracy and explainability.

Keywords: explainable AI, graph attention network, graph neural network, node classification

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40334 Numerical Modeling of the Depth-Averaged Flow over a Hill

Authors: Anna Avramenko, Heikki Haario

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This paper reports the development and application of a 2D depth-averaged model. The main goal of this contribution is to apply the depth averaged equations to a wind park model in which the treatment of the geometry, introduced on the mathematical model by the mass and momentum source terms. The depth-averaged model will be used in future to find the optimal position of wind turbines in the wind park. K-E and 2D LES turbulence models were consider in this article. 2D CFD simulations for one hill was done to check the depth-averaged model in practise.

Keywords: depth-averaged equations, numerical modeling, CFD, wind park model

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40333 Revolutions and Cyclic Patterns in Chinese Town Planning: The Case-Study of Shenzhen

Authors: Domenica Bona

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Colin Chant and David Goodman argue that historians of Chinese pre-industrial cities tend to underestimate revolutions and overestimate cyclic patterns: periods of peace and prosperity in the earl part of each d nast , followed b peasants’ rebellions and upheavals. Boyd described these cyclic patterns as part of the background of Chinese town planning and architecture. Thus old ideals of city planning-square plan, southward orientation and a palace along the central axis - are revived again and again in the ascendant phases of several d nastic c cles (e.g. Chang’an, Kaifen, and Beijing). Along this line of thought, m paper questions the relationship between the “magic square rule” and modern Chinese urban- planning. As a matter of fact, the classical theme of “cosmic Taoist urbanism” is still a reference for planning cities and new urban developments, whenever there is the intention to express nationalist ideals and “cultural straightforwardness.” Besides, some case studies can be related to “modern d nasties”: the first Republic under the Kuo Min Tang, the red People’s Republic and the post-Maoist open country of Deng Xiao Ping. Considering the project for the new capital of Nanjing in the Thirties, Beijing’s Tianan Men area in the ifties, and Shenzhen’s utian CBD in late 20th century, I argue that cyclic patterns are still in place, though with deformations related to westernization, private interests and lack of spirituality. How far new Chinese cities are - or simply seem to be - westernized? Symbolism, invisible frameworks, repeating features and behavioural patterns make urban China just “superficiall” western. This can be well noticed in cities previousl occupied b foreigners, like Hong Kong, or in newly founded ones, like Shenzhen, where both Asians and non-Asian people can feel the gender-shift from New-York-like landscapes to something else. Current planning in main metropolitan areas shows a blurred relationship between public policies and private investments: two levels of decisions and actions, one addressing the larger scale and infrastructures, the other concerning the micro scale and development of single plots. While zoning is instrumental in this process, master plans are often laid out over a very poor cartography, so much that any relation between the formal characters of new cities and the centuries-old structure of the related territory gets lost.

Keywords: China, contemporary cities, cultural heritage, shenzhen, urban planning

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40332 Micromechanical Modelling of Ductile Damage with a Cohesive-Volumetric Approach

Authors: Noe Brice Nkoumbou Kaptchouang, Pierre-Guy Vincent, Yann Monerie

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The present work addresses the modelling and the simulation of crack initiation and propagation in ductile materials which failed by void nucleation, growth, and coalescence. One of the current research frameworks on crack propagation is the use of cohesive-volumetric approach where the crack growth is modelled as a decohesion of two surfaces in a continuum material. In this framework, the material behavior is characterized by two constitutive relations, the volumetric constitutive law relating stress and strain, and a traction-separation law across a two-dimensional surface embedded in the three-dimensional continuum. Several cohesive models have been proposed for the simulation of crack growth in brittle materials. On the other hand, the application of cohesive models in modelling crack growth in ductile material is still a relatively open field. One idea developed in the literature is to identify the traction separation for ductile material based on the behavior of a continuously-deforming unit cell failing by void growth and coalescence. Following this method, the present study proposed a semi-analytical cohesive model for ductile material based on a micromechanical approach. The strain localization band prior to ductile failure is modelled as a cohesive band, and the Gurson-Tvergaard-Needleman plasticity model (GTN) is used to model the behavior of the cohesive band and derived a corresponding traction separation law. The numerical implementation of the model is realized using the non-smooth contact method (NSCD) where cohesive models are introduced as mixed boundary conditions between each volumetric finite element. The present approach is applied to the simulation of crack growth in nuclear ferritic steel. The model provides an alternative way to simulate crack propagation using the numerical efficiency of cohesive model with a traction separation law directly derived from porous continuous model.

Keywords: ductile failure, cohesive model, GTN model, numerical simulation

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