Search results for: ramp type demand

Authors: Kazem Ghanbari, Yousef Gholami

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This paper deals with study about fractional order impulsive Hamiltonian systems and fractional impulsive Sturm-Liouville type problems derived from these systems. The main purpose of this paper devotes to obtain so called Lyapunov type inequalities for mentioned problems. Also, in view point on applicability of obtained inequalities, some qualitative properties such as stability, disconjugacy, nonexistence and oscillatory behaviour of fractional Hamiltonian systems and fractional Sturm-Liouville type problems under impulsive conditions will be derived. At the end, we want to point out that for studying fractional order Hamiltonian systems, we will apply recently introduced fractional Conformable operators.

Keywords: fractional derivatives and integrals, Hamiltonian system, Lyapunov-type inequalities, stability, disconjugacy

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Authors: Mohammad Aldubyan, Fateh Belaid, Anwar Gasim

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This paper aims at linking to link residential energy efficiency to the rebound effect concept, a well-known behavioral phenomenon in which service consumption increases when consumers notice a reduction in monetary spending on energy due to improvements in energy efficiency. It provides insights on into how and why the rebound effect happens when energy efficiency improves and whether this phenomenon is positive or negative. It also shows one technique to estimate the rebound effect on the national residential level. The paper starts with a bird’s eye view of the rebound effect and then dives in in-depth into measuring the rebound effect and evaluating its impact. Finally, the paper estimates the rebound effect in the Saudi residential sector through by linking pre-estimated price elasticities of demand to the Saudi residential building stock.

Keywords: energy efficiency, rebound effect, energy consumption, residential electricity demand

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Authors: Atefeh Pourshafie, Homayoun Bakhtiari

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In power transmission lines, electricity conductors are main tools to carry electric power. Thus, other devices such as shield wires, insulators, towers, foundations etc. should be designed in a way that the conductors be able to successfully do their task which is appropriate power delivery to the customers. Non-stop increase of energy demand has led to saturated capacity of transmission lines which, in turn, causing line flash to exceed acceptable limits in some points. An approach which may be used to solve this issue is replacement of current conductors with new ones having the capability of withstanding higher heating such that reduced flash would be observed when heating increases. These novel conductors are able to transfer higher currents and operate in higher heating conditions while line flash will remain within standard limits. In this paper, we will attempt to introduce three types of advanced overhead conductors and analyze the replacement of current conductors by new ones technically and economically in transmission lines. In this regard, progressive conductors of transmission lines are introduced such as ACC (Aluminum Conductor Composite Core), AAAC-UHC (Ultra High Conductivity, All Aluminum Alloy Conductors), and G(Z)TACSR-Gap Type.

Keywords: ACC, AAAC-UHC, gap type, transmission lines

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Authors: Pornnapat Berndt

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The purpose of this research is to study the tourism routes in Bangnoi Floating Market, Bangkhontee District, Samut Songkhram province, Thailand in order to create type and form of interpretation to promote cultural tourism based on local community and visitor requirement. To accomplish the goals and objectives, qualitative research will be applied. The research instruments used are observation, questionnaires, basic interviews, in-depth interviews, focus group, interviewed of key local informants including site visitors. The study also uses both primary data and secondary data. A Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) was used to analyze the data. Descriptive and inferential statistics such as tables, percentage, mean and standard deviation were used for data analysis and summary. From research result, it is revealed that the local community requirement on types of interpretation conforms to visitors require which need guide post, guide book, etc. with up to date and informally content to present Bangnoi Floating Market which got the most demand score (3.78) considered as most wanted demand.

Keywords: interpretation, cultural tourism, tourism route, local community, stakeholders participated

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Authors: Roscoe McLean, Jared Padayachee, Glen Bright

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There is currently a gap in the technology covering the rapid establishment of control after a reconfiguration in a Reconfigurable Manufacturing System. This gap involves the detection of the factory floor state and the communication link between the factory floor and the high-level software. In this paper, a thin, hardware-supported Middleware Management System (MMS) is proposed and its design and implementation are discussed. The research found that a cost-effective localization technique can be combined with intelligent software to speed up the ramp-up of a reconfigured system. The MMS makes the process more intelligent, more efficient and less time-consuming, thus supporting the industrial implementation of the RMS paradigm.

Keywords: intelligent systems, middleware, reconfigurable manufacturing, management system

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Authors: Michael Hast

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Within their first year, infants can differentiate between objects based on their weight. By at least 5 years children hold consistent weight-related misconceptions about the physical world, such as that heavy things fall faster than lighter ones because of their weight. Such misconceptions are seen as a challenge for science education since they are often highly resistant to change through instruction. Understanding the time point of emergence of such ideas could, therefore, be crucial for early science pedagogy. The paper thus discusses two studies that jointly address the issue by examining young children’s search behaviour in hidden displacement tasks under consideration of relative object weight. In both studies, they were tested with a heavy or a light ball, and they either had information about one of the balls only or both. In Study 1, 88 toddlers aged 2 to 3½ years watched a ball being dropped into a curved tube and were then allowed to search for the ball in three locations – one straight beneath the tube entrance, one where the curved tube lead to, and one that corresponded to neither of the previous outcomes. Success and failure at the task were not impacted by weight of the balls alone in any particular way. However, from around 3 years onwards, relative lightness, gained through having tactile experience of both balls beforehand, enhanced search success. Conversely, relative heaviness increased search errors such that children increasingly searched in the location immediately beneath the tube entry – known as the gravity bias. In Study 2, 60 toddlers aged 2, 2½ and 3 years watched a ball roll down a ramp and behind a screen with four doors, with a barrier placed along the ramp after one of four doors. Toddlers were allowed to open the doors to find the ball. While search accuracy generally increased with age, relative weight did not play a role in 2-year-olds’ search behaviour. Relative lightness improved 2½-year-olds’ searches. At 3 years, both relative lightness and relative heaviness had a significant impact, with the former improving search accuracy and the latter reducing it. Taken together, both studies suggest that between 2 and 3 years of age, relative object weight is increasingly taken into consideration in navigating naïve physical concepts. In particular, it appears to contribute to the early emergence of misconceptions relating to object weight. This insight from developmental psychology research may have consequences for early science education and related pedagogy towards early conceptual change.

Keywords: conceptual development, early science education, intuitive physics, misconceptions, object weight

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Authors: Akaash Tawade, Manan Khattar, Lucas Spangher, Costas J. Spanos

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Many grids are increasing the share of renewable energy in their generation mix, which is causing the energy generation to become less controllable. Buildings, which consume nearly 33% of all energy, are a key target for demand response: i.e., mechanisms for demand to meet supply. Understanding the behavior of office workers is a start towards developing demand response for one sector of building technology. The literature notes that dynamic computational modeling can be predictive of individual action, especially given that occupant behavior is traditionally abstracted from demand forecasting. Recent work founded on Social Cognitive Theory (SCT) has provided a promising conceptual basis for modeling behavior, personal states, and environment using control theoretic principles. Here, an adapted linear dynamical system of latent states and exogenous inputs is proposed to simulate energy demand amongst office workers engaged in a social energy shifting game. The energy shifting competition is implemented in an office in Singapore that is connected to a minigrid of buildings with a consistent 'price signal.' This signal is translated into a 'points signal' by a reinforcement learning (RL) algorithm to influence participant energy use. The dynamic model functions at the intersection of the points signals, baseline energy consumption trends, and SCT behavioral inputs to simulate future outcomes. This study endeavors to analyze how the dynamic model trains an RL agent and, subsequently, the degree of accuracy to which load deferability can be simulated. The results offer a generalizable behavioral model for energy competitions that provides the framework for further research on transfer learning for RL, and more broadly— transactive control.

Keywords: energy demand forecasting, social cognitive behavioral modeling, social game, transfer learning

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Authors: Qianxi Lv, Junying Liang

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Among the various modes of interpreting, simultaneous interpreting (SI) is regarded as a ‘complex’ and ‘extreme condition’ of cognitive tasks while consecutive interpreters (CI) do not have to share processing capacity between tasks. Given that SI exerts great cognitive demand, it makes sense to posit that the output of SI may be more compromised than that of CI in the linguistic features. The bulk of the research has stressed the varying cognitive demand and processes involved in different modes of interpreting; however, related empirical research is sparse. In keeping with our interest in investigating the quantitative linguistic factors discriminating between SI and CI, the current study seeks to examine the potential lexical simplification, syntactic complexity and sequential organization mechanism with a self-made inter-model corpus of transcribed simultaneous and consecutive interpretation, translated speech and original speech texts with a total running word of 321960. The lexical features are extracted in terms of the lexical density, list head coverage, hapax legomena, and type-token ratio, as well as core vocabulary percentage. Dependency distance, an index for syntactic complexity and reflective of processing demand is employed. Frequency motif is a non-grammatically-bound sequential unit and is also used to visualize the local function distribution of interpreting the output. While SI is generally regarded as multitasking with high cognitive load, our findings evidently show that CI may impose heavier or taxing cognitive resource differently and hence yields more lexically and syntactically simplified output. In addition, the sequential features manifest that SI and CI organize the sequences from the source text in different ways into the output, to minimize the cognitive load respectively. We reasoned the results in the framework that cognitive demand is exerted both on maintaining and coordinating component of Working Memory. On the one hand, the information maintained in CI is inherently larger in volume compared to SI. On the other hand, time constraints directly influence the sentence reformulation process. The temporal pressure from the input in SI makes the interpreters only keep a small chunk of information in the focus of attention. Thus, SI interpreters usually produce the output by largely retaining the source structure so as to relieve the information from the working memory immediately after formulated in the target language. Conversely, CI interpreters receive at least a few sentences before reformulation, when they are more self-paced. CI interpreters may thus tend to retain and generate the information in a way to lessen the demand. In other words, interpreters cope with the high demand in the reformulation phase of CI by generating output with densely distributed function words, more content words of higher frequency values and fewer variations, simpler structures and more frequently used language sequences. We consequently propose a revised effort model based on the result for a better illustration of cognitive demand during both interpreting types.

Keywords: cognitive demand, corpus-based, dependency distance, frequency motif, interpreting types, lexical simplification, sequential units distribution, syntactic complexity

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Authors: D. Furuya, H. Ryujin, S. Takahira, Y. Sekine, Y. Oya, K. Sonoda, H. Ogawa, Y. Nomura, R. Maruyama, H. Kim, T. Kudo, A. Nakano, T. Saruta, S. Sugita, M. Nemoto, N. Tanahashi

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Purpose: To study the clinical characteristics of hypoglycemic coma in adult patients with type 1 or type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM). Methods: Participants in this retrospective study comprised 91 patients (54 men, 37 women; mean age ± standard deviation, 71.5 ± 12.6 years; range, 42-97 years) brought to our emergency department by ambulance with disturbance of consciousness in the 7 years from April 2007 to March 2014. Patients with hypoglycemia caused by alcoholic ketoacidosis, nutrition disorder, malignancies and psychological disorder were excluded. Results: Patients with type 1 (8 of 91) or type 2 DM (83 of 91) were analyzed. Mean blood sugar level was 31.6 ± 10.4 in all patients. A sulfonylurea (SU) was more commonly used in elderly (>75 years old; n=44)(70.5%) than in younger patients (36.2%, p < 0.05). Cases showing prolonged unconsciousness (range, 1 hour to 21 days; n=30) included many (p < 0.05) patients with dementia (13.3%; 0.5% without dementia) and fewer (p < 0.05) patients with type 1 DM (0%; 13.1% in type 2 DM). Specialists for DM (n=33) used SU less often (24.2%) than general physicians (69.0%, p < 0.05). Conclusion: In cases of hypoglycemic coma, SU was frequently used in elderly patients with DM.

Keywords: hypoglycemic coma, Diabetes mellitus, unconsciousness, elderly patients

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Authors: Routsukol Sunalai

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The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of public enterprise reform policy on the attributes of organizational commitments in the public energy enterprises in Thailand. It compares three structural types of public energy enterprises: Totally state-owned public enterprises (type I), partially transformed public enterprises (type II), and totally transformed public enterprises (type III), based on the degree of state partially transformed public enterprises (type II), and totally transformed public enterprises (type III),based on the degree of reformed organizations, by analyzing the presence of the desirable attributes of organizational commitment as perceived by employees. Findings indicate that there are statistically significant differences in the level of some dimensions of organizational commitment (affective commitment and normative commitment) between the three types of public energy enterprises. The lack of a structural type difference holds for only continuance commitment. The results also indicate empirical evidence concerning the causal relationship between the antecedents and including organizational commitment also.

Keywords: management control, organizational commitment, public enterprises in Thailand, public enterprise reform

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Authors: Rewadee Anuwattana, Pattamaphorn Phuangngamphan, Narumon Soparatana, Supinya Sutthima, Worapong Pattayawan, Saroj Klangkongsub, Songkiat Roddang, Pluek Wongpanich

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The leachate wastewater is high contaminant water; hence it needs to be treated. The objective of this research was to determine the Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) concentration, Phosphate (PO₄³⁻), Ammonia (NH₃) and color in leachate wastewater in the landfill area. The experiments were carried out in the optimum condition by pH, the Fenton reagent dosage (concentration of dosing Fe²⁺ and H₂O₂). The optimum pH is 3, the optimum [Fe²⁺]/[COD] and [H₂O₂]/[COD₀] = 0.03 and 0.03, respectively. The Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD₅)/Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) ratio can be adjusted to 1 for landfill leachate wastewater (BOD₅/COD = 0.11). From the results, the Fenton process shall be investigated further to achieve the removal of phosphates in addition to COD and color.

Keywords: landfill leachate treatment, open dumpsite, Fenton process, wastewater treatment

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Authors: Eyad Almaita

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In this paper, a novel adaptive Radial Basis Function Neural Networks (RBFNN) algorithm is used to forecast the hour by hour electrical load demand in Jordan. A small and effective RBFNN model is used to forecast the hourly total load demand based on a small number of features. These features are; the load in the previous day, the load in the same day in the previous week, the temperature in the same hour, the hour number, the day number, and the day type. The proposed adaptive RBFNN model can enhance the reliability of the conventional RBFNN after embedding the network in the system. This is achieved by introducing an adaptive algorithm that allows the change of the weights of the RBFNN after the training process is completed, which will eliminates the need to retrain the RBFNN model again. The data used in this paper is real data measured by National Electrical Power co. (Jordan). The data for the period Jan./2012-April/2013 is used train the RBFNN models and the data for the period May/2013- Sep. /2013 is used to validate the models effectiveness.

Keywords: load forecasting, adaptive neural network, radial basis function, short-term, electricity consumption

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Authors: Zi Wang, Xinlei He, Jianghua Lv, Yuqing Lan

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Kernel though widely used, is complicated. Errors caused by some bugs are often costly. Statically, more than half of the mistakes occur in the design phase. Thus, we introduce a modeling method, KMVM (Linux Kernel Modeling and verification Method), based on type theory for proper designation and correct exploitation of the Kernel. In the model, the Kernel is separated into six levels: subsystem, dentry, file, struct, func, and base. Each level is treated as a type. The types are specified in the structure and relationship. At the same time, we use a demanding path to express the function to be implemented. The correctness of the design is verified by recursively checking the type relationship and type existence. The method has been applied to verify the OPEN business of VFS (virtual file system) in Linux Kernel. Also, we have designed and developed a set of security communication mechanisms in the Kernel with verification.

Keywords: formal approach, type theory, Linux Kernel, software program

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Authors: Amani Ashari, Julia Omar, Arif Hashim, Shahrul Hamid

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Apolipoprotein E (APOE) gene polymorphism has influence on serum lipids which relates to cardiovascular risk. The purpose of this study was to determine the frequency distribution of APOE alleles among Malaysian Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (DM) patients with and without coronary artery disease (CAD) and their association with serum lipid profiles. A total of 115 patients were recruited in which 78 patients had Type 2 DM without CAD and 37 patients had Type 2 DM with CAD. The APOE polymorphism was detected by polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP). The APOE ɛ3 allele was the most common one in both groups. There was no significant association between the APOE genotypes and the CAD status in Type 2 DM using Pearson χ² test. Further analysis indicated there were no significant differences in all lipid parameters between E2, E3 and E4 subgroups in both groups. The study showed that the E4 allele carriers of Type 2 DM with CAD patients had higher LDL-C level and lower HDL-C level compared to the other allele carriers. However, analyses showed these levels were not statistically different. The study also showed that the Type 2 DM with CAD group with E2 allele had higher triglyceride (TG). In conclusion, further study with larger sample size is needed to confirm role of E4 as a marker of CAD among Type 2 DM patients in Malaysian population.

Keywords: Apolipoprotein E, diabetes mellitus, cardiovascular disease, lipids

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Authors: Leila Jafari, Viliam Makis

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In this paper, the joint optimization of the economic manufacturing quantity (EMQ), safety stock level, and condition-based maintenance (CBM) is presented for a partially observable, deteriorating system subject to random failure. The demand is stochastic and it is described by a Poisson process. The stochastic model is developed and the optimization problem is formulated in the semi-Markov decision process framework. A modification of the policy iteration algorithm is developed to find the optimal policy. A numerical example is presented to compare the optimal policy with the policy considering zero safety stock.

Keywords: condition-based maintenance, economic manufacturing quantity, safety stock, stochastic demand

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Authors: Elizabeth Spink

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The United Nations' Sustainable Development Goal 6 sets a target for safe and affordable drinking water for all. Developing country governments aiming to achieve this goal often face significant challenges when trying to service last mile customers, particularly those in peri-urban and rural areas. Expansion of water networks often requires high connection fees from households, and demand for connections may be low if there are cheaper substitute sources of water available. This research studies the effect of the availability of substitute sources of water on demand for individual water connections in Livingstone, Zambia, using an event study analysis of metering campaigns. Metering campaigns reduce the share of a household's neighbors that can provide free water to the household if their water connection becomes disconnected due to nonpayment. The results show that household payments in newly metered regions increase by 10 percentage points in the months following metering events, with a decrease in disconnections of 6 percentage points for low-income households. To isolate the effect of changes in a household's substitution possibilities, a similar analysis is conducted among households that neighbor the metered region. These results show mixed evidence of the impact of substitutes on payment behavior and disconnections. The results suggest that metering may be effective in increasing household demand for individual water connections primarily through a lower monthly cost burden for newly metered households.

Keywords: piped-water access, water demand, water utilities, water sharing

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Authors: Jihyun Park, Tae Il Lee, Jae-Min Myoung

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A Silver (Ag) thin film is introduced as a template and doping source for vertically aligned p–type ZnO nanorods. ZnO nanorods were grown using a ammonium hydroxide based hydrothermal process. During the hydrothermal process, the Ag thin film was dissolved to generate Ag ions in the solution. The Ag ions can contribute to doping in the wurzite structure of ZnO and the (111) grain of Ag thin film can be the epitaxial temporal template for the (0001) plane of ZnO. Hence, Ag–doped p–type ZnO nanorods were successfully grown on the substrate, which can be an electrode or semiconductor for the device application. To demonstrate the potentials of this idea, p–n diode was fabricated and its electrical characteristics were demonstrated.

Keywords: hydrothermal process, Ag–doped ZnO nanorods, p–type ZnO

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Authors: K. Mokatse, O. M. Barei, K. Gabanakgosi, P. Matlhabaphiri

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The mining of pit slopes is often associated with some level of deviation from design recommendations, and this may translate to associated changes in the stability of the excavated pit slopes. Therefore slope angle design reconciliations are essential for assessing and monitoring compliance of excavated pit slopes to accepted slope designs. These associated changes in slope stability may be reflected by changes in the calculated factors of safety and/or probabilities of failure. Reconciliations of as-mined and slope design profiles are conducted periodically to assess the implications of these deviations on pit slope stability. Currently, the slope design reconciliation process being implemented in Jwaneng Mine involves the measurement of as-mined and design slope angles along vertical sections cut along the established geotechnical design section lines on the GEOVIA GEMS™ software. Bench retentions are calculated as a percentage of the available catchment area, less over-mined and under-mined areas, to that of the designed catchment area. This process has proven to be both tedious and requires a lot of manual effort and time to execute. Consequently, a new semi-automated mine-to-design reconciliation approach that utilizes laser scanning and GIS-based tools is being proposed at Jwaneng Mine. This method involves high-resolution scanning of targeted bench walls, subsequent creation of 3D surfaces from point cloud data and the derivation of slope toe lines and crest lines on the Maptek I-Site Studio software. The toe lines and crest lines are then exported to the ArcGIS software where distance offsets between the design and actual bench toe lines and crest lines are calculated. Retained bench catchment capacity is measured as distances between the toe lines and crest lines on the same bench elevations. The assessment of the performance of the inter-ramp and overall slopes entails the measurement of excavated and design slope angles along vertical sections on the ArcGIS software. Excavated and design toe-to-toe or crest-to-crest slope angles are measured for inter-ramp stack slope reconciliations. Crest-to-toe slope angles are also measured for overall slope angle design reconciliations. The proposed approach allows for a more automated, accurate, quick and easier workflow for carrying out slope angle design reconciliations. This process has proved highly effective and timeous in the assessment of slope performance in Jwaneng Mine. This paper presents a newly proposed process for assessing compliance to slope angle designs for Jwaneng Mine.

Keywords: slope angle designs, slope design recommendations, slope performance, slope stability

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi

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The probability distributions are the best method for forecasting of extreme hydrologic phenomena such as rainfall and flood flows. In this research, in order to determine suitable probability distribution for estimating of annual extreme rainfall and flood flows (discharge) series with different return periods, precipitation with 40 and discharge with 58 years time period had been collected from Karkheh River at Iran. After homogeneity and adequacy tests, data have been analyzed by Stormwater Management and Design Aid (SMADA) software and residual sum of squares (R.S.S). The best probability distribution was Log Pearson Type III with R.S.S value (145.91) and value (13.67) for peak discharge and Log Pearson Type III with R.S.S values (141.08) and (8.95) for maximum discharge in Jelogir Majin and Pole Zal stations, respectively. The best distribution for maximum precipitation in Jelogir Majin and Pole Zal stations was Log Pearson Type III distribution with R.S.S values (1.74&1.90) and then Pearson Type III distribution with R.S.S values (1.53&1.69). Overall, the Log Pearson Type III distributions are acceptable distribution types for representing statistics of extreme hydrologic phenomena in Karkheh River at Iran with the Pearson Type III distribution as a potential alternative.

Keywords: Karkheh River, Log Pearson Type III, probability distribution, residual sum of squares

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Authors: Ali Etemadi, Polat H. Gulkan

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The drift spectrum derived through the continuous shear-beam and wave propagation theory is known to be useful appliance to measure of the demand of pulse like near field ground motions on building structures. As regards, many of old frame buildings with poor or non-ductile column elements, pass the elastic limits and blurt the post yielding hysteresis degradation responses when subjected to such impulsive ground motions. The drift spectrum which, is based on a linear system cannot be predicted the overestimate drift demands arising from inelasticity in an elastic plastic systems. A simple procedure to estimate the drift demands in shear-type frames which, respond over the elastic limits is described and effect of hysteresis degradation behavior on seismic demands is clarified. Whereupon the modification factors are proposed to incorporate the hysteresis degradation effects parametrically. These factors are defined with respected to the linear systems. The method can be applicable for rapid assessment of existing poor detailed, non-ductile buildings.

Keywords: drift spectrum, shear-type frame, stiffness and strength degradation, pinching, smooth hysteretic model, quasi static analysis

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Authors: Nazaitul Idya Hamzah, Muhammad Syafiq Mazli, Maszatul Akmar Mustafa

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The peak demand forecast is crucial to identify the future generation plant up needed in the long-term capacity planning analysis for Peninsular Malaysia as well as for the transmission and distribution network planning activities. Currently, peak demand forecast (in Mega Watt) is derived from the generation forecast by using load factor assumption. However, a forecast using this method has underperformed due to the structural changes in the economy, emerging trends and weather uncertainty. The dynamic changes of these drivers will result in many possible outcomes of peak demand for Peninsular Malaysia. This paper will look into the independent model of peak demand forecasting. The model begins with the selection of driver variables to capture long-term growth. This selection and construction of variables, which include econometric, emerging trend and energy variables, will have an impact on the peak forecast. The actual framework begins with the development of system energy and load shape forecast by using the system’s hourly data. The shape forecast represents the system shape assuming all embedded technology and use patterns to continue in the future. This is necessary to identify the movements in the peak hour or changes in the system load factor. The next step would be developing the peak forecast, which involves an iterative process to explore model structures and variables. The final step is combining the system energy, shape, and peak forecasts into the hourly system forecast then modifying it with the forecast adjustments. Forecast adjustments are among other sales forecasts for electric vehicles, solar and other adjustments. The framework will result in an hourly forecast that captures growth, peak usage and new technologies. The advantage of this approach as compared to the current methodology is that the peaks capture new technology impacts that change the load shape.

Keywords: hourly load profile, load forecasting, long term peak demand forecasting, peak demand

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Authors: Saad Roustom, Hajo Ribberink

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In most cities in the world, traffic has increased strongly over the last decades, causing high levels of congestion and deteriorating inner-city air quality. This study analyzes the impact of connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) on traffic performance and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions under different CAV penetration rates in mixed fleet environments of CAVs and driver-operated vehicles (DOVs) and under three different traffic demand levels. Utilizing meso-scale traffic simulations of the City of Ottawa, Canada, the research evaluates the traffic performance of three distinct CAV driving behaviors—Cautious, Normal, and Aggressive—at penetration rates of 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100%, across three different traffic demand levels. The study employs advanced correlation models to estimate GHG emissions. The results reveal that Aggressive and Normal CAVs generally reduce traffic congestion and GHG emissions, with their benefits being more pronounced at higher penetration rates (50% to 100%) and elevated traffic demand levels. On the other hand, Cautious CAVs exhibit an increase in both traffic congestion and GHG emissions. However, results also show deteriorated traffic flow conditions when introducing 25% penetration rates of any type of CAVs. Aggressive CAVs outperform all other driving at improving traffic flow conditions and reducing GHG emissions. The findings of this study highlight the crucial role CAVs can play in enhancing urban traffic performance and mitigating the adverse impact of transportation on the environment. This research advocates for the adoption of effective CAV-related policies by regulatory bodies to optimize traffic flow and reduce GHG emissions. By providing insights into the impact of CAVs, this study aims to inform strategic decision-making and stimulate the development of sustainable urban mobility solutions.

Keywords: connected and automated vehicles, congestion, GHG emissions, mixed fleet environment, traffic performance, traffic simulations

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Authors: Said Yousif Khairi

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Being a developing economy, imports of capital, raw materials and manufactories goods are vital for sustainable economic growth. In 2006, Libya imported LD 8 billion (US$ 6.25 billion) which composed of mainly machinery and transport equipment (49.3%), raw material (18%), and food products and live animals (13%). This represented about 10% of GDP. Thus, it is pertinent to investigate factors affecting the amount of Libyan imports. An econometric model representing the aggregate import demand for Libya was developed and estimated using the bounds test procedure, which based on an unrestricted error correction model (UECM). The data employed for the estimation was from 1970–2010. The results of the bounds test revealed that the volume of imports and its determinants namely real income, consumer price index and exchange rate are co-integrated. The findings indicate that the demand for imports is inelastic with respect to income, index price level and The exchange rate variable in the short run is statistically significant. In the long run, the income elasticity is elastic while the price elasticity and the exchange rate remains inelastic. This indicates that imports are important elements for Libyan economic growth in the long run.

Keywords: import demand, UECM, bounds test, Libya

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Authors: Rana Rimawi, Ayman Baklizi

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Skewed distributions are important models that are frequently used in applications. Generalized distributions form a class of skewed distributions and gain widespread use in applications because of their flexibility in data analysis. More specifically, the Generalized Logistic Distribution with its different types has received considerable attention recently. In this study, based on progressively type-II censored data, we will consider point estimation in type II Generalized Logistic Distribution (Type II GLD). We will develop several estimators for its unknown parameters, including maximum likelihood estimators (MLE), Bayes estimators and linear estimators (BLUE). The estimators will be compared using simulation based on the criteria of bias and Mean square error (MSE). An illustrative example of a real data set will be given.

Keywords: point estimation, type II generalized logistic distribution, progressive censoring, maximum likelihood estimation

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Authors: Bin Liu

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Prokaryotic promoter, consisted of two short DNA sequences located at in -35 and -10 positions, is responsible for controlling the initiation and expression of gene expression. Different types of promoters have different functions, and their consensus sequences are similar. In addition, their consensus sequences may be different for the same type of promoter, which poses difficulties for promoter identification. Unfortunately, all existing computational methods treat promoter identification as a binary classification task and can only identify whether a query sequence belongs to a specific promoter type. It is desired to develop computational methods for effectively identifying promoters and their types. Here, a two-layer predictor is proposed to try to deal with the problem. The first layer is designed to predict whether a given sequence is a promoter and the second layer predicts the type of promoter that is judged as a promoter. Meanwhile, we also analyze the importance of feature and sequence conversation in two aspects: promoter identification and promoter type identification. To the best knowledge of ours, it is the first computational predictor to detect promoters and their types.

Keywords: promoter, promoter type, random forest, sequence information

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Authors: T. Sarat Chandra, M. Maneesh Kumar, S. N. Mudliar, V. S. Chauhan, S. Mukherji, R. Sarada

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The life cycle assessment (LCA) of biodiesel production from freshwater microalgae Scenedesmus dimorphus cultivated in open raceway pond is performed. Various scenarios for biodiesel production were simulated using primary and secondary data. The parameters varied in the modelled scenarios were related to biomass productivity, mode of culture mixing and type of energy source. The process steps included algae cultivation in open raceway ponds, harvesting by chemical flocculation, dewatering by mechanical drying option (MDO) followed by extraction, reaction and purification. Anaerobic digestion of defatted algal biomass (DAB) for biogas generation is considered as a co-product allocation and the energy derived from DAB was thereby used in the upstream of the process. The scenarios were analysed for energy demand, emissions and environmental impacts within the boundary conditions grounded on "cradle to gate" inventory. Across all the Scenarios, cultivation via raceway pond was observed to be energy intensive process. The mode of culture mixing and biomass productivity determined the energy requirements of the cultivation step. Emissions to Freshwater were found to be maximum contributing to 93-97% of total emissions in all the scenarios. Global warming potential (GWP) was the found to be major environmental impact accounting to about 99% of total environmental impacts in all the modelled scenarios. It was noticed that overall emissions and impacts were directly related to energy demand and an inverse relationship was observed with biomass productivity. The geographic location of an energy source affected the environmental impact of a given process. The integration of defatted algal remnants derived electricity with the cultivation system resulted in a 2% reduction in overall energy demand. Direct biogas generation from microalgae post harvesting is also analysed. Energy surplus was observed after using part of the energy in upstream for biomass production. Results suggest biogas production from microalgae post harvesting as an environmentally viable and sustainable option compared to biodiesel production.

Keywords: biomass productivity, energy demand, energy source, Lifecycle Assessment (LCA), microalgae, open raceway pond

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Authors: Zhuo Feng, Ying Gao

Abstract:

Public-private partnership (PPP), as an innovative way to provide infrastructures by the private sector, is being widely used throughout the world. Compared with the traditional mode, PPP emerges largely for merits of relieving public budget constraint and improving infrastructure supply efficiency by involving private funds. However, PPP projects are characterized by large scale, high investment, long payback period, and long concession period. These characteristics make PPP projects full of risks. One of the most important risks faced by the private sector is demand risk because many factors affect the real demand. If the real demand is far lower than the forecasting demand, the private sector will be got into big trouble because operating revenue is the main means for the private sector to recoup the investment and obtain profit. Therefore, it is important to study how the government compensates the private sector when the demand risk occurs in order to achieve Pareto-improvement. This research focuses on price compensation mechanism, an ex-post compensation mechanism, and analyzes, by mathematical modeling, the impact of price compensation mechanism on payoff of the private sector and consumer surplus for PPP toll road projects. This research first investigates whether or not price compensation mechanisms can obtain Pareto-improvement and, if so, then explores boundary conditions for this mechanism. The research results show that price compensation mechanism can realize Pareto-improvement under certain conditions. Especially, to make the price compensation mechanism accomplish Pareto-improvement, renegotiation costs of the government and the private sector should be lower than a certain threshold which is determined by marginal operating cost and distortionary cost of the tax. In addition, the compensation percentage should match with the price cut of the private investor when demand drops. This research aims to provide theoretical support for the government when determining compensation scope under the price compensation mechanism. Moreover, some policy implications can also be drawn from the analysis for better risk-sharing and sustainability of PPP projects.

Keywords: infrastructure, price compensation mechanism, public-private partnership, renegotiation

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Authors: Arshia Ayoub, Zahid Ashraf Wani

Abstract:

With the introduction of online social Q&A sites, people are able to reach each other efficiently for information seeking and simultaneously creating social bonds. There prevails an issue of low or no response for some questions posed by an information seeker on these sites. So this study tries to understand the effect of question type on responses in Social Q & A sites. The study found that among the answered queries, majority of them were answered within 24 hours of posting the questions and surprisingly most replies were received within one hour of posting. It was observed that questions of general information type were most likely to be answered followed by verification type.

Keywords: community‐based services, information seeking, social search, social Q&A site

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Authors: Ichiro Takahashi

Abstract:

One conundrum that macroeconomic theory faces is to explain how an economy can revive from depression, in which the aggregate demand has fallen substantially below its productive capacity. This paper examines an autonomous stabilizing mechanism using an agent-based Wicksell-Keynes macroeconomic model. This paper focuses on the effects of the number of firms and the length of the gestation period for investment that are often assumed to be one in a mainstream macroeconomic model. The simulations found the virtual economy was highly unstable, or more precisely, collapsing when these parameters are fixed at one. This finding may even suggest us to question the legitimacy of these common assumptions. A perpetual decline in capital stock will eventually encourage investment if the capital stock is short-lived because an inactive investment will result in insufficient productive capacity. However, for an economy characterized by a roundabout production method, a gradual decline in productive capacity may not be able to fall below the aggregate demand that is also shrinking. Naturally, one would then ask if our economy cannot rely on an external stimulus such as population growth and technological progress to revive investment, what factors would provide such a buoyancy for stimulating investments? The current paper attempts to answer this question by employing the artificial macroeconomic model mentioned above. The baseline model has the following three features: (1) the multi-period gestation for investment, (2) a large number of heterogeneous firms, (3) demand-constrained firms. The instability is a consequence of the following dynamic interactions. (a) A multiple-period gestation period means that once a firm starts a new investment, it continues to invest over some subsequent periods. During these gestation periods, the excess demand created by the investing firm will spill over to ignite new investment of other firms that are supplying investment goods: the presence of multi-period gestation for investment provides a field for investment interactions. Conversely, the excess demand for investment goods tends to fade away before it develops into a full-fledged boom if the gestation period of investment is short. (b) A strong demand in the goods market tends to raise the price level, thereby lowering real wages. This reduction of real wages creates two opposing effects on the aggregate demand through the following two channels: (1) a reduction in the real labor income, and (2) an increase in the labor demand due to the principle of equality between the marginal labor productivity and real wage (referred as the Walrasian labor demand). If there is only a single firm, a lower real wage will increase its Walrasian labor demand, thereby an actual labor demand tends to be determined by the derived labor demand. Thus, the second positive effect would not work effectively. In contrast, for an economy with a large number of firms, Walrasian firms will increase employment. This interaction among heterogeneous firms is a key for stability. A single firm cannot expect the benefit of such an increased aggregate demand from other firms.

Keywords: agent-based macroeconomic model, business cycle, demand constraint, gestation period, representative agent model, stability

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Authors: A. Qayyum, G. Bilal, H. M. Waheed

Abstract:

The objectives of the study were to determine phenotypic variations in Hairy goats for quantitative and qualitative traits and to analyze the relationship between different body measurements and body weight in Hairy goats. Data were collected from the Barani Livestock Production Research Institute (BLPRI) at Kherimurat, Attock and potential farmers who were raising hairy goats in the Potohar region. Twelve (12) phenotypic parameters were measured on 99 adult Hairy goat (18 male and 81 female). Four qualitative and 8 quantitative traits were investigated. Qualitative traits were visually observed and expressed as percentages. Descriptive analysis was done on quantitative variables. All hairy goats had predominately black body coat color (72%), whereas white (11%) and brown (11%) body coat color were also observed. Both the pigmented (45.5%) and non-pigmented (54.5%) type of body skin were observed in the goat breed. Horns were present in the majority (91%) of animals. Most of the animals (83%) had straight facial head profiles. Analysis was performed in SAS On-Demand for Academics using PROC mixed model procedure. Overall means ± SD of body weight (BW), body length (BL), height at wither (HAW), ear length (EL), head length (HL), heart girth (HG), tail length (TL) and MC (muzzle circumference) were 41.44 ± 12.21 kg, 66.40 ± 7.87 cm, 75.17 ± 7.83 cm, 22.99 ± 6.75 cm, 15.07 ± 3.44 cm, 76.54 ± 8.80 cm, 18.28 ± 4.18 cm, and 26.24 ± 5.192 cm, respectively. Sex had a significant effect on BL and HG (P < 0.05), whereas BW, HAW, EL, HL, TL, and MC were not significantly affected (P > 0.05). The herd had a significant effect on BW, BL, HAW, HL, HG, and TL (P < 0.05) except EL and MC (P > 0.05). Hairy goats appear to have the potential for selection as mutton breeds in the Potohar region of Punjab. The findings of the present study would help in the characterization and conservation of hairy goats using genetic and genomic tools in the future.

Keywords: body weight, Hairy goat, type traits Punjab, Pakistan

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