Search results for: criminal risk assessment

Authors: Samuel Holder

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Mass incarceration in the United States is a human rights issue, not merely a civil rights problem. It is a human rights problem not only because the United States has a high rate of incarceration, but more importantly because of who is jailed, for what purpose they are jailed and, ultimately, the manner in which they are jailed. To sustain the scale of the criminal justice system, one of the darker policies involves a multi-tiered strategy of fee- and fine-collection, targeting, usually, the most vulnerable and poor, many of whom run into the law via small offenses that do not rise to the level of felonies. This paper advances the notion that this debt collection-to-incarceration pipeline is tantamount to a modern-day debtors’ prison system. This article seeks to confront the thorny issue of incarceration via criminal justice debt from a human rights and cause-lawyering position. It will argue that a two-pronged cause-lawyering strategy: the first focused on traditional litigation along constitutional grounds, and the second, an advocacy approach rooted in grassroots campaigns, designed to shift the normative operation and understanding of the rights of marginalized and racialized offenders. Ultimately, the argument suggests that this approach will be effective in combatting the (often highly privatized) criminal justice debt system and bring the roles of 'incapacitation, rehabilitation, deterrence, and retribution' back into the criminal justice legal conversation. Part I contextualizes and historicizes the role of fees, penalties, and fines in American criminal justice. Part II examines the emergence of private industry in the criminal justice system, and its role in the acceleration of profit-driven criminal justice debt collection and incarceration. Part III addresses the failures of the federal and state law and legislation in combatting predatory incarceration and debt collection in the criminal justice system, particularly as waged against the indigent and/or ethnically or racially marginalized. Part IV examines the potential for traditional cause-lawyering litigation along constitutional grounds, using case studies across contexts for illustration. Finally, Part V will review the radical cause-lawyer’s role in the normative struggle in redefining prisoners’ rights and the rights of the marginalized (and racialized) as they intersect at the crossroads of criminal justice debt. This paper will conclude with recommendations for litigation and advocacy, drawing on hypotheses advanced, and informed by case studies from a variety of both national and international jurisdictions.

Keywords: cause-lawyering, criminal justice debt, human rights, judicial fees

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Authors: Xiaoxian Zhang

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Guidelines of ecological risk assessment (ERA) and food safety assessment (FSA) used nowadays, based on an S-shaped threshold dose-response curve (SDR), fail to consider hormesis, a reproducible biphasic dose-response model represented as a J-shaped or an inverted U-shaped curve, that occurs in the real-life environment across multitudinous compounds on cells, organisms, populations, and even the ecosystem. Specifically, in SDR-based ERA and FSA practice, predicted no effect concentration (PNEC) is calculated separately for individual substances from no observed effect concentration (NOEC, usually equivalent to 10% effect concentration (EC10) of a contaminant or food condiment) over an assessment coefficient that is bigger than 1. Experienced researchers doubted that hormesis in the real-life environment might lead to a waste of limited human and material resources in ERA and FSA practice, but related data are scarce. In this study, hormetic effects on bioluminescence of Aliivibrio fischeri (A. f) induced by sulfachloropyridazine (SCP) under 40 conditions to simulate the real-life scenario were investigated, and hormetic effects on growth of human MCF-7 cells caused by brown sugar and mascavado sugar were found likewise. After comparison of related parameters, it has for the first time been proved that there is a 50% probability for safe concentration (SC) of contaminants and food condiments to fall within the hormetic-stimulatory range (HSR) or left to HSR, revealing the unreliability of traditional parameters in standardized (eco)toxicological studies, and supporting qualitatively and quantitatively the over-strictness of ERA and FSA resulted from misuse of SDR. This study provides a novel perspective for ERA and FSA practitioners that hormesis should dominate and conditions where SDR works should only be singled out on a specific basis.

Keywords: dose-response relationship, food safety, ecological risk assessment, hormesis

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Authors: Reza Mohammadzadeh

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The major challenges in geotechnical engineering in underground spaces arise from uncertainties and different probabilities. The collection, collation, and collaboration of existing data to incorporate them in analysis and design for given prospect evaluation would be a reliable, practical problem solving method under uncertainty. Machine learning (ML) is a subfield of artificial intelligence in statistical science which applies different techniques (e.g., Regression, neural networks, support vector machines, decision trees, random forests, genetic programming, etc.) on data to automatically learn and improve from them without being explicitly programmed and make decisions and predictions. In this paper, a conceptual database schema of geotechnical risks in underground coal mining based on a cloud system architecture has been designed. A new approach of risk assessment using a three-dimensional risk matrix supported by the level of knowledge (LoK) has been proposed in this model. Subsequently, the model workflow methodology stages have been described. In order to train data and LoK models deployment, an ML platform has been implemented. IBM Watson Studio, as a leading data science tool and data-driven cloud integration ML platform, is employed in this study. As a Use case, a data set of geotechnical hazards and risk assessment in underground coal mining were prepared to demonstrate the performance of the model, and accordingly, the results have been outlined.

Keywords: data model, geotechnical risks, machine learning, underground coal mining

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Authors: Yo Fukutani, Shuji Moriguchi, Takuma Kotani, Terada Kenjiro

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If risk management of the assets owned by companies, risk assessment of real estate portfolio, and risk identification of the entire region are to be implemented, it is necessary to consider simultaneous damage to multiple buildings. In this research, the Sagami Trough earthquake tsunami that could have a significant effect on the Japanese capital region is focused on, and a method is proposed for simultaneous damage assessment using copulas that can take into consideration the correlation of tsunami depths and building damage between two sites. First, the tsunami inundation depths at two sites were simulated by using a nonlinear long-wave equation. The tsunamis were simulated by varying the slip amount (five cases) and the depths (five cases) for each of 10 sources of the Sagami Trough. For each source, the frequency distributions of the tsunami inundation depth were evaluated by using the response surface method. Then, Monte-Carlo simulation was conducted, and frequency distributions of tsunami inundation depth were evaluated at the target sites for all sources of the Sagami Trough. These are marginal distributions. Kendall’s tau for the tsunami inundation simulation at two sites was 0.83. Based on this value, the Gaussian copula, t-copula, Clayton copula, and Gumbel copula (n = 10,000) were generated. Then, the simultaneous distributions of the damage rate were evaluated using the marginal distributions and the copulas. For the correlation of the tsunami inundation depth at the two sites, the expected value hardly changed compared with the case of no correlation, but the damage rate of the ninety-ninth percentile value was approximately 2%, and the maximum value was approximately 6% when using the Gumbel copula.

Keywords: copulas, Monte-Carlo simulation, probabilistic risk assessment, tsunamis

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Authors: Rohin Rameswarapu, Sameer Valsangkar

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Background: Globally, musculoskeletal disorders are the largest single cause of work-related illnesses accounting for over 33% of all newly reported occupational illnesses. Risk factors for MSD need to be delineated to suggest means for amelioration. Material and methods: In this current cross-sectional study, the prevalence of MSDs among workers in an electrical company assembly line, the socio-demographic and job characteristics associated with MSD were obtained through a semi-structured questionnaire. A quantitative assessment of the physical risk factors through the Rapid Upper Limb Assessment (RULA) tool, and measurement of psychosocial risk factors through a Likert scale was obtained. Statistical analysis was conducted using Epi-info software and descriptive and inferential statistics including chi-square and unpaired t test were obtained. Results: A total of 263 workers consented and participated in the study. Among these workers, 200 (76%) suffered from MSD. Most of the workers were aged between 18–27 years and majority of the workers were women with 198 (75.2%) of the 263 workers being women. A chi square test was significant for association between male gender and MSD with a P value of 0.007. Among the MSD positive group, 4 (2%) had a grand score of 5, 10 (5%) had a grand score of 6 and 186 (93%) had a grand score of 7 on RULA. There were significant differences between the non-MSD and MSD group on five out of the seven psychosocial domains, namely job demand, job monotony, co-worker support, decision control and family and environment domains. Discussion: The current cross-sectional study demonstrates a high prevalence of MSD among assembly line works with inherent physical and psychosocial risk factors and recommends that not only physical risk factors, addressing psychosocial risk factors through proper ergonomic means is also essential to the well-being of the employee.

Keywords: musculoskeletal disorders, India, occupational health, Rapid Upper Limb Assessment (RULA)

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Authors: Fatemeh Rezaei, Mohammad H. Yarmohammadian, Masoud Ferdosi, Abbas Haghshnas

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Background: Failure Modes and Effect Analysis is now having known as the main methods of risk assessment and the accreditation requirements for many organizations. The Risk Priority Number (RPN) approach is generally preferred, especially for its easiness of use. Indeed it does not require statistical data, but it is based on subjective evaluations given by the experts about the Occurrence (O i), the Severity (Si) and the Detectability (D i) of each cause of failure. Methods: This study is a quantitative – qualitative research. In terms of qualitative dimension, method of focus groups with inductive approach is used. To evaluate the results of the qualitative study, quantitative assessment was conducted to calculate RPN score. Results; We have studied patient’s journey process in surgery ward and the most important phase of the process determined Transport of the patient from the holding area to the operating room. Failures of the phase with the highest priority determined by defining inclusion criteria included severity (clinical effect, claim consequence, waste of time and financial loss), occurrence (time- unit occurrence and degree of exposure to risk) and preventability (degree of preventability and defensive barriers) and quantifying risks priority criteria in the context of RPN index. Ability of improved RPN reassess by root cause (RCA) analysis showed some variations. Conclusions: Finally, It could be concluded that understandable criteria should have been developed according to personnel specialized language and communication field. Therefore, participation of both technical and clinical groups is necessary to modify and apply these models.

Keywords: failure mode, effects analysis, risk priority number(RPN), health system, risk assessment

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Authors: Benjamin Newman

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The picture of an adverse contest between two parties has often been used as an archetypal description of the Anglo-American adversarial criminal trial. However, in actuality, guilty pleas and plea-bargains have been dominating the procedure for over the last half-a-century. Characterised by two adverse parties, the court adjudicative system in the Anglo-American world adhere to the adversarial procedure, and while further features have been attributed and the values that are embedded within the procedure vary, it is a system that we have no adequate theory. Damaska had argued that the adversarial conflict-resolution mode of administration of justice stems from a liberal laissez-faire concept of a value neutral liberal state. Having said that, the court’s neutrality has been additionally rationalised in light of its liberal end as a safeguard from the state’s coercive force. Both conceptions of the court’s neutrality conflict in cases where the by-standing role disposes of its liberal duty in safeguarding the individual. Such is noticeable in plea bargains, where the defendant has the liberty to plead guilty, despite concerns over wrongful convictions and deprivation of liberty. It is an inner liberal tension within the notion of criminal adversarialism, between the laissez-faire mode which grants autonomy to the parties and the safeguarding liberal end of the trial. Langbein had asserted that the adversarial system is a criminal procedure for which we have no adequate theory, and it is by reference to political and moral theories that the research aims to articulate a normative account. The paper contemplates on the above liberal-tension, and by reference to Duff’s ‘calling-to-account’ theory, argues that autonomy is of inherent value to the criminal process, being considered a constitutive element in the process of being called to account. While the aspiration is that the defendant’s guilty plea should be genuine, the guilty-plea decision must be voluntary if it is to be considered a performative act of accountability. Thus, by valuing procedural autonomy as a necessary element within the criminal adjudicative process, it assimilates a liberal procedure, whilst maintaining the liberal end by holding the defendant to account.

Keywords: liberal theory, adversarial criminal procedure, criminal law theory, liberal perfectionism, political liberalism

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Authors: Atrin Barzegar, Yas Barzegar, Stefano Marrone, Francesco Bellini, Laura Verde

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The aim of this research is to develop an intelligent system to analyze the risk level of wheat flour product manufacturing system. The model consists of five Fuzzy Inference Systems in two different layers to analyse the risk of a wheat flour product manufacturing system. The first layer of the model consists of four Fuzzy Inference Systems with three criteria. The output of each one of the Physical, Chemical, Biological and Environmental Failures will be the input of the final manufacturing systems. The proposed model based on Mamdani Fuzzy Inference Systems gives a performance ranking of wheat flour products manufacturing systems. The first step is obtaining data to identify the failure modes from expert’s opinions. The second step is the fuzzification process to convert crisp input to a fuzzy set., then the IF-then fuzzy rule applied through inference engine, and in the final step, the defuzzification process is applied to convert the fuzzy output into real numbers.

Keywords: failure modes, fuzzy rules, fuzzy inference system, risk assessment

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Authors: Masoud Nasiri Sarvi, Yunhua Luo

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Low-trauma hip fracture, usually caused by fall from standing height, has become a main source of morbidity and mortality for the elderly. Factors affecting hip fracture include sex, race, age, body weight, height, body mass distribution, etc., and thus, hip fracture risk in fall differs widely from subject to subject. It is therefore necessary to develop a subject-specific biomechanical model to predict hip fracture risk. The objective of this study is to develop a two-level, image-based, subject-specific biomechanical model consisting of a whole-body dynamics model and a proximal-femur finite element (FE) model for more accurately assessing the risk of hip fracture in lateral falls. Required information for constructing the model is extracted from a whole-body and a hip DXA (Dual Energy X-ray Absorptiometry) image of the subject. The proposed model considers all parameters subject-specifically, which will provide a fast, accurate, and non-expensive method for predicting hip fracture risk.

Keywords: bone mineral density, hip fracture risk, impact force, sideways falls

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Authors: Euan Donley

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Emergency Departments (EDs) are heavily burdened as presentation rates continue to rise. To improve patient flow National Emergency Access Targets (NEAT) were introduced. NEAT implements timelines for ED presentations, such as discharging patients within four hours of arrival. Mental health patients use EDs more than the general population and are generally more complex in their presentations. The aim of this study is to examine the impact of NEAT on psychiatric risk assessment of mental health patients in the ED. Seventy-eight mental health clinicians from 7 Victoria, Australia, hospital EDs participated in a mixed method analysis via anonymous online survey. NEAT was considered helpful as mental health patients were seen quicker, were less likely to abscond, could improve teamwork amongst ED staff, and in some cases administrative processes were better streamlined. However, clinicians felt that NEAT was also responsible for less time with patients and relatives’, resulted in rushed assessments, placed undue pressure on mental health clinicians, was not conducive to training, and the emphasis on time was the wrong focus for patient treatment. The profile of a patient typically likely to be treated within NEAT timelines showed a perfect storm of luck and compliance. If a patient was sober, medically stable, referred early, did not require much collateral information and did not have distressed relatives, NEAT was more likely to be met. Organisationally participants reported no organisational change or training to meet NEAT. Poor mental health staffing, multiple ED presentations and a shortage of mental health beds also hamper meeting NEAT. Findings suggest participants were supportive of NEAT in principle, but a demanding workload and organisational barriers meant NEAT had an overall negative effect on psychiatric risk assessment of mental health patients in ED.

Keywords: assessment, emergency, risk, psychiatric

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Authors: Marta Fernandez Cabrera

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The period of economic boom generated by the housing bubble created a climate of social indifference to the problem of corruption. This resulted in the persecution and conviction for these criminal offenses being low. After the economic recession, social awareness about the problem of corruption has increased. This has led to the Spanish citizenship requiring the public authorities to try to end the problem in the most effective way possible. In order to respond to the continuous social demands that require an exemplary punishment, the legislator has made changes in crimes against the public administration in the Spanish Criminal Code. However, from the point of view of criminal law, the social change has not served to modify only the law, but also the jurisprudence. After the recession, judges are punishing more severely these conducts than in the past. Before the crisis, it was usual for criminal judges to divert relevant behavior to other areas of the legal system such as administrative law and acquit in the criminal field. Criminal judges have considered that administrative law already has mechanisms that can effectively deal with this type of behavior in order to respect the principle of subsidiarity or ultima ratio. It has also been usual for criminal judges to acquit civil servants due to the absence of requirements unrelated to the applicable offense. For example, they have required an economic damage to the public administration when the offense in the criminal code does not require it. Nevertheless, for some years, these arguments have either partially disappeared or considerably transformed. Since 2010, a jurisprudential stream has been consolidated that aims to provide a more severe response to corruption than it had received until now. This change of opinion, together with greater prosecution of these behaviors by judges and prosecutors, has led to a significant increase in the number of individuals convicted of corruption crimes. This paper has two objectives. The first one is to show that even though judges apply the law impartially, they are flexible to social changes. The second one is to identify the erroneous arguments the courts have used up until now. To carry out the present paper, it has been done a detailed analysis of the judgments of the supreme court before and after the year 2010. Therefore, the jurisprudential analysis is complemented with the statistical data on corruption available.

Keywords: corruption, public administration, social perception, ultima ratio principle

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Authors: P. S. Hsi, Y. F. Wang, Y. F. Ho, P. C. Hung

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The aim of the present study was to explore the dermal exposure assessment model of chemicals that have been developed abroad and to evaluate the feasibility of chemical dermal exposure assessment model for manufacturing industry in Taiwan. We conducted and analyzed six semi-quantitative risk management tools, including UK - Control of substances hazardous to health ( COSHH ) Europe – Risk assessment of occupational dermal exposure ( RISKOFDERM ), Netherlands - Dose related effect assessment model ( DREAM ), Netherlands – Stoffenmanager ( STOFFEN ), Nicaragua-Dermal exposure ranking method ( DERM ) and USA / Canada - Public Health Engineering Department ( PHED ). Five types of manufacturing industry were selected to evaluate. The Monte Carlo simulation was used to analyze the sensitivity of each factor, and the correlation between the assessment results of each semi-quantitative model and the exposure factors used in the model was analyzed to understand the important evaluation indicators of the dermal exposure assessment model. To assess the effectiveness of the semi-quantitative assessment models, this study also conduct quantitative dermal exposure results using prediction model and verify the correlation via Pearson's test. Results show that COSHH was unable to determine the strength of its decision factor because the results evaluated at all industries belong to the same risk level. In the DERM model, it can be found that the transmission process, the exposed area, and the clothing protection factor are all positively correlated. In the STOFFEN model, the fugitive, operation, near-field concentrations, the far-field concentration, and the operating time and frequency have a positive correlation. There is a positive correlation between skin exposure, work relative time, and working environment in the DREAM model. In the RISKOFDERM model, the actual exposure situation and exposure time have a positive correlation. We also found high correlation with the DERM and RISKOFDERM models, with coefficient coefficients of 0.92 and 0.93 (p<0.05), respectively. The STOFFEN and DREAM models have poor correlation, the coefficients are 0.24 and 0.29 (p>0.05), respectively. According to the results, both the DERM and RISKOFDERM models are suitable for performance in these selected manufacturing industries. However, considering the small sample size evaluated in this study, more categories of industries should be evaluated to reduce its uncertainty and enhance its applicability in the future.

Keywords: dermal exposure, risk management, quantitative estimation, feasibility evaluation

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Authors: A. A. Adebayo, A. O. Ogunkeyede, A. O. Adeigbe

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Digital globalisation and yarn of Nigeria society to overcome the digital divide have resulted in contamination of soil by heavy metals (HMs) from e-waste activities at Alaba international market, Lagos, Nigeria. The aim of this research was to determine the concentration of various metals {Cadmium (Cd), Chromium (Cr), Copper (Cu), and Lead (Pb)} and identify their ecological and health risks for the people within the study area. A total of 60 soil samples were collected at Alaba market study area. Two types of samples were collected from each sampling points: topsoil (0-15 cm), subsoil (15 -30 cm). The metal concentration results showed that the soils were heavily contaminated by HMs at topsoil and subsoil. The geoaccummulation and ecological risk indices revealed high pollution level from all studied site. The health risk assessment results suggested that there is high possibility of carcinogenic risk to humans because the carcinogenic risk via corresponding exposure pathways exceeded the safety limit of 10-6 (the acceptable level of carcinogenic risk for human). Furthermore, inhalation of soil particles is the main exposure pathway for Cr to enter the human body for all ages. Children in the vicinity are exposed more to ingestion of Pb since they tend to eat earth (pica) and repeatedly suck their fingers. This study provides basic information to create awareness for a need to introduce pollution control measures and the need to protect the ecosystem and human health within the study area at Alaba international market.

Keywords: contaminated soil, ecological risk, hazard index, risk factor, exposure pathways, heavy metals

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Authors: Kemal Izci

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Assessment forms an important part of instruction. Assessment that aims to support learning is known as formative assessment and it contributes student’s learning gain and motivation. However, teachers rarely use assessment formatively to aid their students’ learning. Thus, reviewing the factors that limit or support teachers’ practices of formative assessment will be crucial for guiding educators to support prospective teachers in using formative assessment and also eliminate limiting factors to let practicing teachers to engage in formative assessment practices during their instruction. The study, by using teacher’s change environment framework, reviews literature on formative assessment and presents a tentative model that illustrates the factors impacting teachers’ adoption of formative assessment in their teaching. The results showed that there are four main factors consisting personal, contextual, resource-related and external factors that influence teachers’ practices of formative assessment.

Keywords: assessment practices, formative assessment, teacher education, factors for use of formative assessment

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Authors: Paulo Rocha

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Once in touch with the Criminal Justice System, offenders with mental disorder tend to return to custody more often than nondisordered individuals, which suggests they have not been receiving appropriate treatment in prison. In this scenario, diverting individuals into care as early as possible in their trajectory seems to be the appropriate approach to rehabilitate mentally unwell offenders and alleviate overcrowded prisons. This paper builds on an ethnographic research investigating the challenges encountered by practitioners working to divert offenders into care while attempting to establish cross-boundary interactions with professionals in the Criminal Justice System and Mental Health Services in the UK. Drawing upon the findings of the study, this paper suggests the development of adequate tools to enable liaison between agencies which ultimately results in successful interventions.

Keywords: criminogenic needs, interagency collaboration, liaison and diversion, recidivism

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Authors: Danielle Page

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Foregoing studies, statistics, and medical evaluations have established a relationship between Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and criminal justice involvement in Vietnam veterans. War is highly trauma inducing and can leave combat veterans with mental disorders ranging from psychopathic thoughts to suicidal ideation. The majority of those suffering are unaware that they have PTSD, and as a coping mechanism, they often turn to self isolation. Beyond isolation, many veterans with symptomatic PTSD turn to aggression and substance abuse to cope with their internal agony. The most common crimes committed by veterans with PTSD fall into the assault and drug/alcohol abuse categories. Thus, a relationship is established between veteran populations and the criminal justice system. This dissertation aims to define the relationship between PTSD and criminal justice involvement in veterans, explore the mediating factors in this relationship, and analyze numerous court cases in this subject area. Further, it will examine the ways in which crime rates can be reduced for veterans with symptoms of PTSD. This ranges from the improvement of healthcare systems to the implementation of special courts to handle veteran cases.

Keywords: psychotraumatology, forensic psychology, PTSD, vietnam veterans

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Authors: David Nantes, George Gilbert

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There are a lot of risks that might crop up as a tunneling project develops, and it's crucial to be aware of them. Due to the unexpected nature of tunneling projects and the interconnectedness of risk occurrences, the risk assessment approach presents a significant challenge. The purpose of this study is to provide a hybrid FDEMATEL-ANP model to help prioritize risks during tunnel construction projects. The ambiguity in expert judgments and the relative severity of interdependencies across risk occurrences are both taken into consideration by this model, thanks to the Fuzzy Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (FDEMATEL). The Analytic Network Process (ANP) method is used to rank priorities and assess project risks. The authors provide a case study of a subway tunneling construction project to back up the validity of their methodology. The results showed that the proposed method successfully isolated key risk factors and elucidated their interplay in the case study. The proposed method has the potential to become a helpful resource for evaluating dangers associated with tunnel construction projects.

Keywords: risk, prioritization, FDEMATEL, ANP, tunneling construction projects

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Authors: Chloe E. Edwards, Yasaman Shahtaheri

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Risk management plays a fundamental role in project planning and delivery. The purpose of incorporating risk management into project management practices is to identify and address uncertainties related to key project-related activities. The uncertainties, known as risk events, can relate to project deliverables that are quantifiable and are often measured by impact to project schedule, cost, or environmental impact. Risk management should be incorporated as an iterative practice throughout the planning, execution, and commissioning phases of a project. This paper specifically examines how risk management contributes to effective project planning and delivery through a case study of a transportation project. This case study focused solely on impacts to project schedule regarding three milestones: readiness for delivery, readiness for testing and commissioning, and completion of the facility. The case study followed the ISO 31000: Risk Management – Guidelines. The key factors that are outlined by these guidelines include understanding the scope and context of the project, conducting a risk assessment including identification, analysis, and evaluation, and lastly, risk treatment through mitigation measures. This process requires continuous consultation with subject matter experts and monitoring to iteratively update the risks accordingly. The risk identification process led to a total of fourteen risks related to design, permitting, construction, and commissioning. The analysis involved running 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations through @RISK 8.0 Industrial software to determine potential milestone completion dates based on the project baseline schedule. These dates include the best case, most likely case, and worst case to provide an estimated delay for each milestone. Evaluation of these results provided insight into which risks were the highest contributors to the projected milestone completion dates. Based on the analysis results, the risk management team was able to provide recommendations for mitigation measures to reduce the likelihood of risks occurring. The risk management team also provided recommendations for managing the identified risks and project activities moving forward to meet the most likely or best-case milestone completion dates.

Keywords: construction management, monte carlo simulation, project delivery, risk assessment, transportation engineering

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Authors: Hsin-Chih Lai, Yung-Lung Lee, Yun-Yao Chi, Ching-Yi Horng, Pei-Chih Wu, Hsien-Chang Wang

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Taiwan, a climatically challenged island, has always been keen on the issue of water resource management due to its limitations in water storage. Since water resource management has been the focal point of many adaptations to climate change, there has been a lack of attention on another issue, water quality. This study chooses the Errer River Basin as the experimental focus for water quality in Taiwan. With the Errer River Basin being one of the most polluted rivers in Taiwan, this study observes the effects of climate change on this river over a period of time. Taiwan is also targeted by multiple typhoons every year, the heavy rainfall and strong winds create problems of pollution being carried to different river segments, including into the ocean. This study aims to create an impact and risk assessment on Errer River Basin, to show the connection from climate change to potential extreme events, which in turn could influence water quality and ultimately human health. Using dynamic downscaling, this study narrows the information from a global scale to a resolution of 1 km x 1 km. Then, through interpolation, the resolution is further narrowed into a resolution of 200m x 200m, to analyze the past, present, and future of extreme events. According to different climate change scenarios, this study designs an assessment index on the vulnerability of the Errer River Basin. Through this index, Errer River inhabitants can access advice on adaptations to climate change and act accordingly.

Keywords: climate change, adaptation, water quality, risk assessment

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Authors: Arianna Nativio, Zoran Kapelan, Jan Peter van der Hoek

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Bio-composite materials are becoming increasingly popular in various applications, such as the automotive industry. Usually, bio-composite materials are made from natural resources recovered from plants, now, a new type of bio-composite material has begun to be produced in the Netherlands. This material is made from resources recovered from drinking water treatments (calcite), wastewater treatment (cellulose), and material from surface water management (aquatic plants). Surface water, raw drinking water, and wastewater can be contaminated with pathogens and chemical compounds. Therefore, it would be valuable to develop a framework to assess, monitor, and control the potential risks. Indeed, the goal is to define the major risks in terms of human health, quality of materials, and environment associated with the production and application of these new materials. This study describes the general risk assessment framework, starting with a qualitative risk assessment. The qualitative risk analysis was carried out by using the HAZOP methodology for the hazard identification phase. The HAZOP methodology is logical and structured and able to identify the hazards in the first stage of the design when hazards and associated risks are not well known. The identified hazards were analyzed to define the potential associated risks, and then these were evaluated by using the qualitative Event Tree Analysis. ETA is a logical methodology used to define the consequences for a specific hazardous incidents, evaluating the failure modes of safety barriers and dangerous intermediate events that lead to the final scenario (risk). This paper shows the effectiveness of combining of HAZOP and qualitative ETA methodologies for hazard identification and risk mapping. Then, key risks were identified, and a quantitative framework was developed based on the type of risks identified, such as QMRA and QCRA. These two models were applied to assess human health risks due to the presence of pathogens and chemical compounds such as heavy metals into the bio-composite materials. Thus, due to these contaminations, the bio-composite product, during its application, might release toxic substances into the environment leading to a negative environmental impact. Therefore, leaching tests are going to be planned to simulate the application of these materials into the environment and evaluate the potential leaching of inorganic substances, assessing environmental risk.

Keywords: bio-composite, risk assessment, water reuse, resource recovery

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Authors: Katalin Bodor, Zsolt Bodor, Robert Szep

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The particulate matter (PM) smaller than 2.5 μm are less studied due to the limited availability of PM₂.₅, and less information is available on the health effects attributable to PM₁₀ in Central-Eastern Europe. The objective of the current study was to assess the human health risk and characterize the spatial and temporal variation of PM₂.₅ and PM₁₀ in eight Romanian regions between the 2009-2018 and. The PM concentrations showed high variability over time and spatial distribution. The highest concentration was detected in the Bucharest region in the winter period, and the lowest was detected in West. The relative risk caused by the PM₁₀ for all-cause mortality varied between 1.017 (B) and 1.025 (W), with an average 1.020. The results demonstrate a positive relative risk of cardiopulmonary and lung cancer disease due to exposure to PM₂.₅ on the national average 1.26 ( ± 0.023) and 1.42 ( ± 0.037), respectively.

Keywords: PM₂.₅, PM₁₀, relative risk, health effect

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Authors: K. Sekulová, M. Šimon

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The article demonstrates on a case study how it is possible to identify MSD risk. It is based on a dissertation risk identification model of occupational diseases formation in relation to the work activity that determines what risk can endanger workers who are exposed to the specific risk factors. It is evaluated based on statistical calculations. These risk factors are main cause of upper-extremities musculoskeletal disorders.

Keywords: case study, upper-extremity musculoskeletal disorders, ergonomics, risk identification

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Authors: Alma Shehu, Majlinda Vasjari, Sonila Duka, Loreta Vallja, Nevila Broli

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Humans consume drinking water from several sources, including tap water, bottled water, natural springs, filtered tap water, etc. The quality of drinking water is crucial for human survival given the fact that the consumption of contaminated drinking water is related to many diseases and deaths all over the world. This study represents the investigation of the quality and health risks of different types of drinking waters being consumed by the population in Albania, arising from heavy metals content. Investigated water included industrialized water, tap water, and spring water. In total, 20 samples were analyzed for the content of Pb, Cd, Cr, Ni, Cu, Fe, Zn, Al, and Mn. Determination of each metal concentration in selected samples was conducted by atomic absorption spectroscopy method with electrothermal atomization, GFAAS. Water quality was evaluated by comparing the obtained metals concentrations with the recommended maximum limits, according to the European Directive (98/83/EC) and Guidelines for Drinking Water Quality (WHO, 2017). Metal Index (MI) was used to assess the overall water quality due to heavy metals content. Health risk assessment was conducted based on the recommendations of the USEPA (1996), human health risk assessment, via ingestion. Results of this investigation showed that Al, Ni, Fe, and Cu were the metals found in higher concentrations while Cd exhibited the lowest concentration. Among the analyzed metals, Al (one sample) and Ni (in five samples) exceeded the maximum allowed limit. Based on the pollution metal index, it was concluded that the overall quality of Glina bottled water can be considered as toxic to humans, while the quality of bottled water (Trebeshina) was classified as moderately toxic. Values of health risk quotient (HQ) varied between 1x10⁻⁶-1.3x10⁻¹, following the order Ni > Cd > Pb > Cu > Al > Fe > Zn > Mn. All the values were lower than 1, which suggests that the analyzed samples exhibit no health risk for humans.

Keywords: drinking water, health risk assessment, heavy metals, pollution index

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Authors: Krzysztof Plesiewicz, Izabela Plesiewicz, Krzysztof Chiżyński, Marzenna Zielińska

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Background: Obesity is an independent risk factor for cardiovascular diseases. There are several anthropometric parameters proposed to estimate the level of obesity, but until now there is no agreement which one is the best predictor of cardiometabolic risk. Scientists defined metabolically obese normal weight, who suffer from metabolic abnormalities, the same as obese individuals, and defined this syndrome as normal weight obesity (NWO). Aim of the study: The aim of our study was to determine the occurrence of overweight and obesity in a cohort of young, adult women, using standard and complementary methods of obesity assessment and to indicate those, who are at risk of obesity. The second aim of our study was to test additional methods of obesity assessment and proof that body mass index using alone is not sufficient parameter of obesity assessment. Materials and methods: 384 young women, aged 18-32, were enrolled into the study. Standard anthropometric parameters (waist to hips ratio (WTH), waist to height ratio (WTHR)) and two other methods of body fat percentage measurement (BFPM) were used in the study: electrical bioimpendance analysis (BIA) and skinfold measurement test by digital fat body mass clipper (SFM). Results: In the study group 5% and 7% of participants had waist to hips ratio and accordingly waist to height ratio values connected with visceral obesity. According to BMI 14% participants were overweight and obese. Using additional methods of body fat assessment, there were 54% and 43% of obese for BIA and SMF method. In the group of participants with normal BMI and underweight (not overweight, n =340) there were individuals with the level of BFPM above the upper limit, for the BIA 49% (n =164) and for the SFM 36 % (n=125). Statistical analysis revealed strong correlation between BIA and SFM methods. Conclusion: BMI using alone is not a sufficient parameter of obesity assessment. High percentage of young women with normal BMI values seem to be normal weight obese.

Keywords: electrical bioimpedance, normal weight obesity, skin-fold measurement test, women

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Authors: Olukayode Bamgbose, Feyisola Agboola, Adewale M. Taiwo, Olanrewaju Olujimi Oluwole Terebo, Azeez Soyingbe, Akeem Bamgbade

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The present study evaluated the contents and health risk assessment of metals determined in milk and milk product samples collected from the Abeokuta market. Forty-five milk and milk product (yoghurt) samples were digested and analysed for selected metals using Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometric method. Health risk assessment was evaluated for hazard quotient (HQ), hazard index (HI), and cancer risk (CR). Data were subjected to descriptive and inferential statistics. The concentrations of Zn, which ranged from 3.24±0.59 to 4.35±0.59 mg/kg, were the highest in the samples. Cr and Cd were measured below the detection limit of the analytical instrument, while the Pb level was higher than the Codex Alimentarius Commission value of 0.02 mg/kg, indicating unsafe for consumption. However, the HQ of Pb and other metals in milk and milk product samples was less than 1.0, thereby establishing no adverse health effects for Pb and other metals. The distribution pattern of metals in milk and milk product samples followed the decreasing order of Zn > Fe > Ni > Co > Cu > Mn > Pb > Cd/Cr. The CR levels of meals were also less than the permissible limit of 1.0 x 10-4, establishing no possible development of cancer. Keywords: adverse effects, cancer, metals, milk, milk product, the permissible limit.

Keywords: adverse effects, cancer, metals, milk, milk product, permissible limit

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Authors: Tamas Bezsenyi, Noemi Katona

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Fighting Human Trafficking is a highly important issue worldwide that states need to deal with in international politics. In the EU combatting human trafficking is emphasized in international policy making and also in the work of international law enforcement, thus in the work of the EUROPOL. While the EU Directive against Human Trafficking prescribes how states should fight this transnational crime and also how victims should be assisted, the EUROPOL focuses on the effective cooperation between national law enforcement agencies. However, despite the aims of the common fight, human trafficking is regulated differently in the punitive law of various nation states. This deeply defines the work and possibilities of national law enforcement organizations. Among the manifold differences in this paper, we focus on the role of regulating asset recovery. We highlight that money, and the regulation and practice how the law enforcement deals with income gained from criminal activities, play essential role in combatting human trafficking. While doing research on the investigation of transnational human trafficking by the Hungarian Law Enforcement Agencies, we have found that the unfortunate regulation of asset recovery determines the lower effectiveness of eliminating criminal organizations. While i.e. in the Netherlands confiscation of property takes place in an early stage of the criminal procedure, in Hungary it can be conducted only if money laundering is also assumed. Our presentation builds on the comparison of criminal procedures which we analyse based on criminal files and interviews with coworkers of the National Bureau of Investigation.

Keywords: human trafficking, law enforcement, asset recovery, organized crime

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Authors: Nevila Bardhi, Joanna Magda, Kolapo Alex-Oni, Slavenka Sedlar, Paromita Hore

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The New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene (NYC DOHMH) receives blood lead test results for NYC residents and conducts lead poisoning case investigations for individuals with elevated blood lead levels exposed to lead occupationally and non-occupationally. To (1) improve participant engagement, (2) aid the identification of potential lead sources, and (3) better tailor recommendations to reduce lead exposure, Motivational Interviewing (MI) techniques were incorporated during risk assessment interviews of non-pregnant adults by DOHMH’s Adult Lead Poisoning Prevention (ALP) Program. MI is an evidence-based counselling method used in clinical settings that have been effective in promoting behavior change by resolving ambivalence and enhancing motivation in treating both physiological and psychological health conditions. The incorporation of MI techniques in the ALP risk assessment interview was effective in improving the identification of lead sources for non-pregnant adult cases, thus, allowing for the opportunity to better tailor lead poisoning prevention recommendations. The embedding of MI cues in the ALP risk assessment interview also significantly increased engagement in the interview process, resulting in approximately 50 more interviews conducted per year and a decrease in interview refusals during case investigations. Additionally, the pre-MI interview completion rate was 57%, while the post-MI Interview completion rate was 68%. We recommend MI techniques to be used by other lead poisoning prevention programs during lead poisoning investigations in similar diverse populations.

Keywords: lead poisoning prevention, motivational interviewing, behavior change, lead poisoning risk factors, self-efficacy

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Authors: Alon Cohen, Jeffrey Kantor, Shalom Levy

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The use of the audit risk model in auditing has faced limitations and difficulties, leading auditors to rely on a conceptual level of its application. The qualitative approach to assessing risks has resulted in different risk assessments, affecting the quality of audits and decision-making on the adoption of CAATTs. This study aims to investigate risk factors impacting the implementation of the audit risk model and propose a complementary risk-based instrument (KRIs) to form substance risk judgments and mitigate against heightened risk of material misstatement (RMM). The study addresses the question of how risk factors impact the implementation of the audit risk model, improve risk judgments, and aid in the adoption of CAATTs. The study uses a three-stage scale development procedure involving a pretest and subsequent study with two independent samples. The pretest involves an exploratory factor analysis, while the subsequent study employs confirmatory factor analysis for construct validation. Additionally, the authors test the ability of the KRIs to predict audit efforts needed to mitigate against heightened RMM. Data was collected through two independent samples involving 767 participants. The collected data was analyzed using exploratory factor analysis and confirmatory factor analysis to assess scale validity and construct validation. The suggested KRIs, comprising two risk components and seventeen risk items, are found to have high predictive power in determining audit efforts needed to reduce RMM. The study validates the suggested KRIs as an effective instrument for risk assessment and decision-making on the adoption of CAATTs. This study contributes to the existing literature by implementing a holistic approach to risk assessment and providing a quantitative expression of assessed risks. It bridges the gap between intuitive risk evaluation and the theoretical domain, clarifying the mechanism of risk assessments. It also helps improve the uniformity and quality of risk assessments, aiding audit standard-setters in issuing updated guidelines on CAATT adoption. A few limitations and recommendations for future research should be mentioned. First, the process of developing the scale was conducted in the Israeli auditing market, which follows the International Standards on Auditing (ISAs). Although ISAs are adopted in European countries, for greater generalization, future studies could focus on other countries that adopt additional or local auditing standards. Second, this study revealed risk factors that have a material impact on the assessed risk. However, there could be additional risk factors that influence the assessment of the RMM. Therefore, future research could investigate other risk segments, such as operational and financial risks, to bring a broader generalizability to our results. Third, although the sample size in this study fits acceptable scale development procedures and enables drawing conclusions from the body of research, future research may develop standardized measures based on larger samples to reduce the generation of equivocal results and suggest an extended risk model.

Keywords: audit risk model, audit efforts, CAATTs adoption, key risk indicators, sustainability

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Authors: Jennifer Reese, Josh Biber, Howard Weeks, Rachel Hess

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Aim: The Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Screen (EPDS) is a mental health screening for pregnant women that has been widely used over the last 30 years. This screen is typically given in clinic on paper to patients throughout pregnancy and postpartum. The screen helps identify patients who may be at risk for pregnancy related depression or postpartum depression. In early 2016, University of Utah Health implemented an electronic version of the EPDS as well as the PROMIS Depression v1.0 instrument for all pregnant and postpartum patients. We asked patients both instruments to understand coverage of patients identified as at risk for each instrument. Methods: The EPDS is currently administered as part of our PRO template for pregnant and postpartum women. We also administer the PROMIS Depression as part of a standard PRO assessment to all patients. Patients are asked to complete an assessment no more often than every eight weeks. PRO assessments are either completed at home or in clinic with a tablet computer. Patients with a PROMIS score of ≥ 65 or a EPDS score of ≥ 10 were identified as at risk for depression Results: From April 2016 to April 2017, 1,330 unique patients were screened at University of Utah Health in OBGYN clinics with both the EPDS and PROMIS depression instrument on the same day. There were 28 (2.1%) patients were identified as at risk for depression using the PROMIS depression screen, while 262 (19.7%) patients were identified as at risk for postpartum depression using the EPDS screen. Overall, 27 (2%) patients were identified as at risk on both instruments. Conclusion: The EPDS identified a higher percent (19.7%) of patients at risk for depression when compared to the PROMIS depression (2.1%). Ninety-six percent of patients who screened positive on the PROMIS depression screen also screened positive on the EPDS screen. Mental health is an important component to a patient’s overall wellbeing. We want to ensure all patients, particularly pregnant or post-partum women, receive screening and treatment when necessary. A combination of screenings may be necessary to provide the overall best care for patients and to identify the highest percentage of patients at risk.

Keywords: patient reported outcomes, mental health, maternal, depression

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Authors: Tolga Barisik, Ali Fuat Guneri, K. Dastan

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Major industrial facilities have a high potential for fire risk. In particular, the indices used for the detection of hidden fire are used very effectively in order to prevent the fire from becoming dangerous in the initial stage. These indices provide the opportunity to prevent or intervene early by determining the stage of the fire, the potential for hazard, and the type of the combustion agent with the percentage values of the ambient air components. In this system, artificial neural network will be modeled with the input data determined using the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm, which is a multi-layer sensor (CAA) (teacher-learning) type, before modeling the modeling methods in the literature. The actual values produced by the indices will be compared with the outputs produced by the network. Using the neural network and the curves to be created from the resulting values, the feasibility of performance determination will be investigated.

Keywords: artifical neural networks, fire, Graham Index, levenberg-marquardt algoritm, oxygen decrease percentage index, risk assessment, Trickett Index

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