Search results for: climatic envelope approach

Authors: Francesco Pandolfi, Georgios Baltzopoulos, Iunio Iervolino

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The impact of extreme winds on industrial assets and the built environment is gaining increasing attention from stakeholders, including the corporate insurance industry. This has led to a progressively more in-depth study of building vulnerability and fragility to wind. Wind vulnerability models are used in probabilistic risk assessment to relate a loss metric to an intensity measure of the natural event, usually a gust or a mean wind speed. In fact, vulnerability models can be integrated with the wind hazard, which consists of associating a probability to each intensity level in a time interval (e.g., by means of return periods) to provide an assessment of future losses due to extreme wind. This has also given impulse to the world- and regional-scale wind hazard studies.Another approach often adopted for the probabilistic description of building vulnerability to the wind is the use of fragility functions, which provide the conditional probability that selected building components will exceed certain damage states, given wind intensity. In fact, in wind engineering literature, it is more common to find structural system- or component-level fragility functions rather than wind vulnerability models for an entire building. Loss assessment based on component fragilities requires some logical combination rules that define the building’s damage state given the damage state of each component and the availability of a consequence model that provides the losses associated with each damage state. When risk calculations are based on numerical simulation of a structure’s behavior during extreme wind scenarios, the interaction of component fragilities is intertwined with the computational procedure. However, simulation-based approaches are usually computationally demanding and case-specific. In this context, the present work introduces the ExtReMe wind risk assESsment prototype Software, ERMESS, which is being developed at the University of Naples Federico II. ERMESS is a wind risk assessment tool for insurance applications to industrial facilities, collecting a wide assortment of available wind vulnerability models and fragility functions to facilitate their incorporation into risk calculations based on in-built or user-defined wind hazard data. This software implements an alternative method for building-specific risk assessment based on existing component-level fragility functions and on a number of simplifying assumptions for their interactions. The applicability of this alternative procedure is explored by means of an illustrative proof-of-concept example, which considers four main building components, namely: the roof covering, roof structure, envelope wall and envelope openings. The application shows that, despite the simplifying assumptions, the procedure can yield risk evaluations that are comparable to those obtained via more rigorous building-level simulation-based methods, at least in the considered example. The advantage of this approach is shown to lie in the fact that a database of building component fragility curves can be put to use for the development of new wind vulnerability models to cover building typologies not yet adequately covered by existing works and whose rigorous development is usually beyond the budget of portfolio-related industrial applications.

Keywords: component wind fragility, probabilistic risk assessment, vulnerability model, wind-induced losses

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Authors: Hamid Goharnejad, Amir Hossein Eghbali

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Recent investigations have demonstrated the global sea level rise due to climate change impacts. In this study climate changes study the effects of increasing water level in the strait of Hormuz. The probable changes of sea level rise should be investigated to employ the adaption strategies. The climatic output data of a GCM (General Circulation Model) named CGCM3 under climate change scenario of A1b and A2 were used. Among different variables simulated by this model, those of maximum correlation with sea level changes in the study region and least redundancy among themselves were selected for sea level rise prediction by using stepwise regression. One models of Discrete Wavelet artificial Neural Network (DWNN) was developed to explore the relationship between climatic variables and sea level changes. In these models, wavelet was used to disaggregate the time series of input and output data into different components and then ANN was used to relate the disaggregated components of predictors and predictands to each other. The results showed in the Shahid Rajae Station for scenario A1B sea level rise is among 64 to 75 cm and for the A2 Scenario sea level rise is among 90 to 105 cm. Furthermore the result showed a significant increase of sea level at the study region under climate change impacts, which should be incorporated in coastal areas management.

Keywords: climate change scenarios, sea-level rise, strait of Hormuz, forecasting

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Authors: Javier Ascanio Villabona, Brayan Eduardo Tarazona Romero, Camilo Leonardo Sandoval Rodriguez, Arly Dario Rincon, Omar Lengerke Perez

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Efficient energy consumption in the housing sector in relation to refrigeration is a concern in the construction and rehabilitation of houses in tropical areas. Thermal comfort is aggravated by heat gain on the roof surface by heat gains. Thus, in the group of passive cooling techniques, one of the practices and technologies in solar control that provide improvements in comfortable conditions are thermal insulation or geometric changes of the roofs. On the other hand, methods with reflection and radiation are the methods used to decrease heat gain by facilitating the removal of excess heat inside a building to maintain a comfortable environment. Since the potential of these techniques varies in different climatic zones, their application in different zones should be examined. This research is based on the experimental study of a prototype of a roof radiator as a method of passive cooling in homes, which was developed through an experimental research methodology making measurements in a prototype built by means of the paradigm of appropriate technology, with the aim of establishing an initial behavior of the internal temperature resulting from the climate of the external environment. As a starting point, a selection matrix was made to identify the typologies of passive cooling systems to model the system and its subsequent implementation, establishing its constructive characteristics. Step followed by the measurement of the climatic variables (outside the prototype) and microclimatic variables (inside the prototype) to obtain a database to be analyzed. As a final result, the decrease in temperature that occurs inside the chamber with respect to the outside temperature was evidenced. likewise, a linearity in its behavior in relation to the variations of the climatic variables.

Keywords: appropriate technology, enveloping, energy efficiency, passive cooling

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Authors: Vanessa H. S. Zago, Ana Maria H. de Avila, Paula P. Costa, Welington Corozolla, Liriam S. Teixeira, Eliana C. de Faria

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Objectives: The outcome of cardiovascular disease is affected by environment and climate. This study evaluated the possible relationships between climatic and environmental changes and the occurrence of biological rhythms in serum lipids and lipoproteins in a large population sample in the city of Campinas, State of Sao Paulo, Brazil. In addition, it determined the temporal variations of death due to atherosclerotic events in Campinas during the time window examined. Methods: A large 8-year retrospective study was carried out to evaluate the lipid profiles of individuals attended at the University of Campinas (Unicamp). The study population comprised 27.543 individuals of both sexes and of all ages. Normolipidemic and dyslipidemic individuals classified according to Brazilian guidelines on dyslipidemias, participated in the study. For the same period, the temperature, relative humidity and daily brightness records were obtained from the Centro de Pesquisas Meteorologicas e Climaticas Aplicadas a Agricultura/Unicamp and frequencies of death due to atherosclerotic events in Campinas were acquired from the Brazilian official database DATASUS, according to the International Classification of Diseases. Statistical analyses were performed using both Cosinor and ARIMA temporal analysis methods. For cross-correlation analysis between climatic and lipid parameters, cross-correlation functions were used. Results: Preliminary results indicated that rhythmicity was significant for LDL-C and HDL-C in the cases of both normolipidemic and dyslipidemic subjects (n =respectively 11.892 and 15.651 both measures increasing in the winter and decreasing in the summer). On the other hand, for dyslipidemic subjects triglycerides increased in summer and decreased in winter, in contrast to normolipidemic ones, in which triglycerides did not show rhythmicity. The number of deaths due to atherosclerotic events showed significant rhythmicity, with maximum and minimum frequencies in winter and summer, respectively. Cross-correlation analyzes showed that low humidity and temperature, higher thermal amplitude and dark cycles are associated with increased levels of LDL-C and HDL-C during winter. In contrast, TG showed moderate cross-correlations with temperature and minimum humidity in an inverse way: maximum temperature and humidity increased TG during the summer. Conclusions: This study showed a coincident rhythmicity between low temperatures and high concentrations of LDL-C and HDL-C and the number of deaths due to atherosclerotic cardiovascular events in individuals from the city of Campinas. The opposite behavior of cholesterol and TG suggest different physiological mechanisms in their metabolic modulation by climate parameters change. Thus, new analyses are underway to better elucidate these mechanisms, as well as variations in lipid concentrations in relation to climatic variations and their associations with atherosclerotic disease and death outcomes in Campinas.

Keywords: atherosclerosis, climatic variations, lipids and lipoproteins, associations

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Authors: Yosiya Chanta, Jantrararuk Tovaranont

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Species distribution model (SDMs) is one of the powerful tools used to create a suitability map used to predict and address ecology and conservation approaches. MaxEnt is a tool used among SDMs that is highly popular because it only uses presence data. Zanthoxylum rhetsa has more than 200 species distributed in the tropics. Most commonly found in cooler forest environments, there are 8-9 species found in Thailand. In northern Thailand, 3 varieties are commonly grown: Zanthoxylum myriacanthum, Zanthoxylum rhetsa and Zanthoxylum armatum. In the northern regions, these varieties are mainly used as a spice and as a cooking ingredient. MaxEnt has been used in this study to predict potential habitats for these Zanthoxylums in current and future times (2041and 2060). Suitable habitats are predicted using data from the EC-Earth3-Veg general circulation model with 19 climatic variables. The results indicate that the suitability of future habitats of Zanthoxylum rhetsa may expand into the lower northern part of Thailand. The habitat suitability map obtained from the MaxEnt tool shows that the Precipitation of Wettest Quarter (Bio16) is the most important climatic variable influencing the current and future spread of Zanthoxylum rhetsa.

Keywords: MaxEnt, Zanthoxylum rhets, species distribution modelling, climate change

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Authors: José Neves, M. Rosário Martins, Fátima Candeias, Diana Ferreira, Sílvia Arantes, Júlio Cruz-Morais, Guida Gomes, Joaquim Macedo, António Abelha, Henrique Vicente

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Some plants of genus Schinus have been used in the folk medicine as topical antiseptic, digestive, purgative, diuretic, analgesic or antidepressant, and also for respiratory and urinary infections. Chemical composition of essential oils of S. molle and S. terebinthifolius had been evaluated and presented high variability according with the part of the plant studied and with the geographic and climatic regions. The pharmacological properties, namely antimicrobial, anti-tumoural and anti-inflammatory activities are conditioned by chemical composition of essential oils. Taking into account the difficulty to infer the pharmacological properties of Schinus essential oils without hard experimental approach, this work will focus on the development of a decision support system, in terms of its knowledge representation and reasoning procedures, under a formal framework based on Logic Programming, complemented with an approach to computing centered on Artificial Neural Networks and the respective Degree-of-Confidence that one has on such an occurrence.

Keywords: artificial neuronal networks, essential oils, knowledge representation and reasoning, logic programming, Schinus molle L., Schinus terebinthifolius Raddi

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Authors: Hasan Vural

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Turkey is a favorable country to produce a great variety of agricultural products because of her different geographic and climatic conditions which have been used to divide the country into four main and seven sub regions. This classification into seven regions traditionally has been used in order to data collection and publication especially related with agricultural production. Afterwards, nine agricultural regions were considered. Recently, the governmental body which is responsible of data collection and dissemination (Turkish Institute of Statistics-TIS) has used 12 classes which include 11 sub regions and Istanbul province. This study aims to evaluate these classification efforts based on the acreage of ten main crops in a ten years time period (1996-2005). The panel data grouped in 11 subregions has been evaluated by cluster and multivariate statistical methods. It was concluded that from the agricultural production point of view, it will be rather meaningful to consider three main and eight sub-agricultural regions throughout the country.

Keywords: agricultural region, factorial analysis, cluster analysis,

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Authors: Nadia Nisar

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Background: In the temperate regions Influenza activities occur sporadically all year round with peaks coinciding during cold months. Meteorological and environmental conditions play significant role in the transmission of influenza globally. In this study, we assessed the relationship between meteorological parameters and influenza activity in two geographical areas of Pakistan. Methods: Influenza data were collected from Islamabad (north) and Multan (south) regions of national influenza surveillance system during 2010-2015. Meteorological database was obtained from National Climatic Data Center (Pakistan). Logistic regression model with a stepwise approach was used to explore the relationship between meteorological parameters with influenza peaks. In statistical model, we used the weekly proportion of laboratory-confirmed influenza positive samples to represent Influenza activity with metrological parameters as the covariates (temperature, humidity and precipitation). We also evaluate the link between environmental conditions associated with seasonal influenza epidemics: 'cold-dry' and 'humid-rainy'. Results: We found that temperature and humidity was positively associated with influenza in north and south both locations (OR = 0.927 (0.88-0.97)) & (OR = 0.1.078 (1.027-1.132)) and (OR = 1.023 (1.008-1.037)) & (OR = 0.978 (0.964-0.992)) respectively, whilst precipitation was negatively associated with influenza (OR = 1.054 (1.039-1.070)) & (OR = 0.949 (0.935-0.963)). In both regions, temperature and humidity had the highest contribution to the model as compared to the precipitation. We revealed that the p-value for all of climate parameters is <0.05 by Independent-sample t-test. These results demonstrate that there were significant relationships between climate factors and influenza infection with correlation coefficients: 0.52-0.90. The total contribution of these three climatic variables accounted for 89.04%. The reported number of influenza cases increased sharply during the cold-dry season (i.e., winter) when humidity and temperature are at minimal levels. Conclusion: Our findings showed that measures of temperature, humidity and cold-dry season (winter) can be used as indicators to forecast influenza infections. Therefore integrating meteorological parameters for influenza forecasting in the surveillance system may benefit the public health efforts in reducing the burden of seasonal influenza. More studies are necessary to understand the role of these parameters in the viral transmission and host susceptibility process.

Keywords: influenza, climate, metrological, environmental

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Authors: Abdorrasoul Malekpour, Mohammad Ghorbani Mojtaba Mortazavi, Mohammadreza Fattahi, Mohammad Hassan Meshkibaf, Ali Fakhrzad, Saeid Salehi, Saeideh Zahedi, Amir Ahmadimoghaddam, Parviz Farzadnia Dr., Mohammadreza Hajyani Asl Bs

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Hepatitis B as an infectious disease has eight main genotypes (A–H). The aim of this study is to Bioinformatically identify Rare Codon Clusters (RCC) in proteins structure of HBV. For detection of protein family accession numbers (Pfam) of HBV proteins; used of uni-prot database and Pfam search tool were used. Obtained Pfam IDs were analyzed in Sherlocc program and RCCs in HBV proteins were detected. In further, the structures of TrEMBL entries proteins studied in PDB database and 3D structures of the HBV proteins and locations of RCCs were visualized and studied using Swiss PDB Viewer software. Pfam search tool have found nine significant hits and 0 insignificant hits in 3 frames. Results of Pfams studied in the Sherlocc program show this program not identified RCCs in the external core antigen (PF08290) and truncated HBeAg protein (PF08290). By contrast the RCCs become identified in Hepatitis core antigen (PF00906) Large envelope protein S (PF00695), X protein (PF00739), DNA polymerase (viral) N-terminal domain (PF00242) and Protein P (Pf00336). In HBV genome, seven RCC identified that found in hepatitis core antigen, large envelope protein S and DNA polymerase proteins and proteins structures of TrEMBL entries sequences that reported in Sherlocc program outputs are not complete. Based on situation of RCC in structure of HBV proteins, it suggested those RCCs are important in HBV life cycle. We hoped that this study provide a new and deep perspective in protein research and drug design for treatment of HBV.

Keywords: rare codon clusters, hepatitis B virus, bioinformatic study, infectious disease

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Authors: E. Bensaci, M. Saheb, Y. Nouidjem, A. Zoubiri, A. Bouzegag, M. Houhamdi

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The Greater flamingo is considered the flagship species of wetlands across semi-arid and Saharan regions of Africa, especially Chotts and Sebkhas, which also concentrate significant numbers of bird species. Flamingos have different status (wintering and breeder) which vary between sites in different parts of Algeria. We conducted surveys and recorded banded flamingos across distinct regions within two climatic belts: semi-arid (Hauts Plateaux) and arid (Sahara), showing the importance of these sites in the migratory flyways particularly the relation between West Mediterranean and West Africa populations. The distribution of Greater flamingos varied between sites and seasons, where the concentrations mainly were in the wide, lees deep and salt lakes. Many of the sites (17) in the surveyed area were regularly supporting at least 1% of the regional population during winter. The analysis of Greater flamingos behaviour in different climatic regions in relation showed that the feeding is the dominant diurnal activity with rates exceeding 60% of the time. While feeding varies between seasons, and showed a negative relationship with the degree of disturbance.

Keywords: Algeria, greater flamingo, Phoenicopterus roseus, Sahara, semi-arid

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Authors: Silvia Di Turi, Nicolandrea Calabrese, Francesca Caffari, Giulia Centi, Francesca Margiotta, Giovanni Murano, Laura Ronchetti, Paolo Signoretti, Lisa Volpe, Domenico Palladino

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Recent European policies have been set ambitious targets aimed at significantly reducing CO2 emissions by 2030, with a long-term vision of transforming existing buildings into Zero-Emissions Buildings (ZEmB) by 2050. This vision represents a key point for the energy transition as the whole building stock currently accounts for 36% of total energy consumption across the Europe, mainly due to their poor energy performance. The challenge towards Zero-Emissions Buildings is particularly felt in Italy, where a significant number of buildings with historical significance or situated within protected/constrained areas can be found. Furthermore, an estimated 70% of the national building stock are built before 1976, indicating a widespread issue of poor energy performance. Addressing the energy ineƯiciency of these buildings is crucial to refining a comprehensive energy renovation approach aimed at facilitating their energy transition. In this framework the current study focuses on analysing a challenging complex of buildings to be totally restored through significant energy renovation interventions. The goal is to recover these disused buildings situated in a significant archaeological zone of Rome, contributing to the restoration and reintegration of this historically valuable site, while also oƯering insights useful for achieving zeroemission requirements for buildings within such contexts. In pursuit of meeting the stringent zero-emission requirements, a comprehensive study was carried out to assess the complex of buildings, envisioning substantial renovation measures on building envelope and plant systems and incorporating renewable energy system solutions, always respecting and preserving the historic site. An energy audit of the complex of buildings was performed to define the actual energy consumption for each energy service by adopting the hourly calculation methods. Subsequently, significant energy renovation interventions on both building envelope and mechanical systems have been examined respecting the historical value and preservation of site. These retrofit strategies have been investigated with threefold aims: 1) to recover the existing buildings ensuring the energy eƯiciency of the whole complex of buildings, 2) to explore which solutions have allowed achieving and facilitating the ZEmB status, 3) to balance the energy transition requirements with the sustainable aspect in order to preserve the historic value of the buildings and site. This study has pointed out the potentiality and the technical challenges associated with implementing renovation solutions for such buildings, representing one of the first attempt towards realizing this ambitious target for this type of building.

Keywords: energy conservation and transition, complex of buildings in historic site, zero-emission buildings, energy efficiency recovery

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Authors: Sher Mohammed, Purushottam Lal, Pawan K. Kasera

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The Thar Desert of Rajasthan covers a wide geographical area spreading between 23.3° to 30.12°, North latitude and 69.3◦ to 76◦ Eastern latitudes; having a unique spectrum of arid zone vegetation. This desert is spreading over 12 districts having a rich source of economically important/threatened plant diversity interacting and growing with adverse climatic conditions of the area. Due to variable geological, physiographic, climatic, edaphic and biotic factors, the arid zone medicinal flora exhibit a wide collection of angiosperm families. The herbal diversity of this arid region is medicinally important in household remedies among tribal communities as well as in traditional systems. The on-going increasing disturbances in natural ecosystems are due to climatic and biological, including anthropogenic factors. The unique flora and subsequently dependent faunal diversity of the desert ecosystem is losing its biotic potential. A large number of plants have no future unless immediate steps are taken to arrest the causes, leading to their biological improvement. At present the potential loss in ecological amplitude of various genera and species is making several plant species as red listed plants of arid zone vegetation such as Commmiphora wightii, Tribulus rajasthanensis, Calligonum polygonoides, Ephedra foliata, Leptadenia reticulata, Tecomella undulata, Blepharis sindica, Peganum harmala, Sarcostoma vinimale, etc. Mostly arid zone species are under serious pressure against prevailing ecosystem factors to continuation their life cycles. Genetic, molecular, cytological, biochemical, metabolic, reproductive, germination etc. are the several points where the floral diversity of the arid zone area is facing severe ecological influences. So, there is an urgent need to conserve them. There are several opportunities in the field to carry out remarkable work at particular levels to protect the native plants in their natural habitat instead of only their in vitro multiplication.

Keywords: ecology, evaluation, xerophytes, economically, threatened plants, conservation

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Authors: Aboubakr Gambo, Adama Diaw, Tobias Wunscher

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This study attempts to identify factors affecting rural households’ resilience to food insecurity in Niger. For this, we first create a resilience index by using Principal Component Analysis on the following five variables at the household level: income, food expenditure, duration of grain held in stock, livestock in Tropical Livestock Units and number of farms exploited and second apply Structural Equation Modelling to identify the determinants. Data from the 2010 National Survey on Households’ Vulnerability to Food Insecurity done by the National Institute of Statistics is used. The study shows that asset and social safety nets indicators are significant and have a positive impact on households’ resilience. Climate change approximated by long-term mean rainfall has a negative and significant effect on households’ resilience to food insecurity. The results indicate that to strengthen households’ resilience to food insecurity, there is a need to increase assistance to households through social safety nets and to help them gather more resources in order to acquire more assets. Furthermore, early warning of climatic events could alert households especially farmers to be prepared and avoid important losses that they experience anytime an uneven climatic event occur.

Keywords: food insecurity, principal component analysis, structural equation modelling, resilience

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Authors: S. M. Ali, A. Salam Khan, A. U. Khan, M. Tariq, M. S. Hussain, B. A. Abbasi, I. Hussain, U. Farid

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Environment and surrounding plays a pivotal rule in structuring life-style of the consumers. Living standards intern effect the energy consumption of the consumers. In smart grid paradigm, climate drifts, weather parameter and green environmental directly relates to the energy profiles of the various consumers, such as residential, commercial and industrial. Considering above factors helps policy in shaping utility load curves and optimal management of demand and supply. Thus, there is a pressing need to develop correlation models of load and weather parameters and critical analysis of the factors effecting energy profiles of smart grid consumers. In this paper, we elaborated various environment and weather parameter factors effecting demand of consumers. Moreover, we developed correlation models, such as Pearson, Spearman, and Kendall, an inter-relation between dependent (load) parameter and independent (weather) parameters. Furthermore, we validated our discussion with real-time data of Texas State. The numerical simulations proved the effective relation of climatic drifts with energy consumption of smart grid consumers.

Keywords: climatic drifts, correlation analysis, energy consumption, smart grid, weather parameter

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Authors: Victor O. Abegunde, Melusi Sibanda

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There is need for a great deal of attention on small-scale agriculture for livelihood and food security because of the expanding global population. Small-scale agriculture has been identified as a major driving force of agricultural and rural development. However, the high dependence of the sector on natural and climatic resources has made small-scale farmers highly vulnerable to the adverse impact of climatic change thereby necessitating the need for embracing practices or concepts that will help absorb shocks from changes in climatic condition. This study examines the strategic position of small-scale farming in South African agriculture and in ensuring food security in the country, the vulnerability of small-scale agriculture to climate change and the potential of the concept of climate-smart agriculture to tackle the challenge of climate change. The study carried out a systematic review of peer-reviewed literature touching small-scale agriculture, climate change, food security and climate-smart agriculture, employing the realist review method. Findings revealed that increased productivity in the small-scale agricultural sector has a great potential of improving the food security of households in South Africa and reducing dependence on food purchase in a context of high food price inflation. Findings, however, also revealed that climate change affects small-scale subsistence farmers in terms of productivity, food security and family income, categorizing the impact on smallholder livelihoods into three major groups; biological processes, environmental and physical processes and impact on health. Analysis of the literature consistently showed that climate-smart agriculture integrates the benefits of adaptation and resilience to climate change, mitigation, and food security. As a result, farming households adopting climate-smart agriculture will be better off than their counterparts who do not. This study concludes that climate-smart agriculture could be a very good bridge linking small-scale agricultural sector and agricultural productivity and development which could bring about the much needed food security.

Keywords: climate change, climate-smart agriculture, food security, small-scale

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Authors: Valentina Bonetti

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Exergy analysis successfully helps optimizing processes in various sectors. In the built environment, a second-law approach can enhance potential interactions between constructions and their surrounding environment and minimise fossil fuel requirements. Despite the research done in this field in the last decades, practical applications are hard to encounter, and few integrated exergy simulators are available for building designers. Undoubtedly, an obstacle for the diffusion of exergy methods is the strong dependency of results on the definition of its 'reference state', a highly controversial issue. Since exergy is the combination of energy and entropy by means of a reference state (also called "reference environment", or "dead state"), the reference choice is crucial. Compared to other classical applications, buildings present two challenging elements: They operate very near to the reference state, which means that small variations have relevant impacts, and their behaviour is dynamical in nature. Not surprisingly then, the reference state definition for the built environment is still debated, especially in the case of dynamic assessments. Among the several characteristics that need to be defined, a crucial decision for a dynamic analysis is between a fixed reference environment (constant in time) and a variable state, which fluctuations follow the local climate. Even if the latter selection is prevailing in research, and recommended by recent and widely-diffused guidelines, the fixed reference has been analytically demonstrated as the only choice which defines exergy as a proper function of the state in a fluctuating environment. This study investigates the impact of that crucial choice: Fixed or variable reference. The basic element of the building energy chain, the envelope, is chosen as the object of investigation as common to any building analysis. Exergy fluctuations in the building envelope of a case study (a typical house located in a Mediterranean climate) are confronted for each time-step of a significant summer day, when the building behaviour is highly dynamical. Exergy efficiencies and fluxes are not familiar numbers, and thus, the more easy-to-imagine concept of exergy storage is used to summarize the results. Trends obtained with a fixed and a variable reference (outside air) are compared, and their meaning is discussed under the light of the underpinning dynamical energy analysis. As a conclusion, a fixed reference state is considered the best choice for dynamic exergy analysis. Even if the fixed reference is generally only contemplated as a simpler selection, and the variable state is often stated as more accurate without explicit justifications, the analytical considerations supporting the adoption of a fixed reference are confirmed by the usefulness and clarity of interpretation of its results. Further discussion is needed to address the conflict between the evidence supporting a fixed reference state and the wide adoption of a fluctuating one. A more robust theoretical framework, including selection criteria of the reference state for dynamical simulations, could push the development of integrated dynamic tools and thus spread exergy analysis for the built environment across the common practice.

Keywords: exergy, reference state, dynamic, building

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Authors: Rabiaa Gammoudi, Najet Rebei, Othman Hasnaoui

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Photovoltaic systems use different techniques for tracking the Maximum Power Point (MPPT) to provide the highest possible power to the load regardless of the climatic conditions variation. In this paper, the proposed method is the Open Circuit (OC) method with sudden and random variations of insolation. The simulation results of the water pumping system controlled by OC method are validated by an experimental experience in real-time using a test bench composed by a centrifugal pump powered by a PVG via a boost chopper for the adaptation between the source and the load. The output of the DC/DC converter supplies the motor pump LOWARA type, assembly by means of a DC/AC inverter. The control part is provided by a computer incorporating a card DS1104 running environment Matlab/Simulink for visualization and data acquisition. These results show clearly the effectiveness of our control with a very good performance. The results obtained show the usefulness of the developed algorithm in solving the problem of degradation of PVG performance depending on the variation of climatic factors with a very good yield.

Keywords: PVWPS (PV Water Pumping System), maximum power point tracking (MPPT), open circuit method (OC), boost converter, DC/AC inverter

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Authors: Ahsan Abdullah, Ahmed A. S. Bakshwain

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Livestock is one of the fastest-growing sectors in agriculture. If carefully managed, have potential opportunities for economic growth, food sovereignty and food security. In this study we mainly analyse and compare long-term i.e. for year 2030 climate variability impact on predicted productivity of meat i.e. beef, mutton and poultry for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia w.r.t three factors i.e. i) climatic-change vulnerability ii) CO2 fertilization and iii) water scarcity and compare the results with two countries of the region i.e. Iraq and Yemen. We do the analysis using data from diverse sources, which was extracted, transformed and integrated before usage. The collective impact of the three factors had an overall negative effect on the production of meat for all the three countries, with adverse impact on Iraq. High similarity was found between CO2 fertilization (effecting animal fodder) and water scarcity i.e. higher than that between production of beef and mutton for the three countries considered. Overall, the three factors do not seem to be favorable for the three Middle-East countries considered. This points to possibility of a vegetarian year 2030 based on dependency on indigenous live-stock population.

Keywords: prediction, animal-source foods, pastures, CO2 fertilization, climatic-change vulnerability, water scarcity

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Authors: U.K. Sarkar, G. Karnatak, P. Mishal, Lianthuamluaia, S. Kumari, S.K. Das, B.K. Das

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Inland open water fisheries provide food, income, livelihood and nutritional security to millions of fishers across the globe. However, the open water ecosystem and fisheries are threatened due to climate change and anthropogenic pressures, which are more visible in the recent six decades, making the resources vulnerable. Understanding the interaction between meteorological parameters and inland fisheries is imperative to develop mitigation and adaptation strategies. As per IPCC 5th assessment report, the earth is warming at a faster rate in recent decades. Global mean surface temperature (GMST) for the decade 2006–2015 (0.87°C) was 6 times higher than the average over the 1850–1900 period. The direct and indirect impacts of climatic parameters on the ecology of fisheries ecosystem have a great bearing on fisheries due to alterations in fish physiology. The impact of meteorological factors on ecosystem health and fish food organisms brings about changes in fish diversity, assemblage, reproduction and natural recruitment. India’s average temperature has risen by around 0.7°C during 1901–2018. The studies show that the mean air temperature in the Ganga basin has increased in the range of 0.20 - 0.47 °C and annual rainfall decreased in the range of 257-580 mm during the last three decades. The studies clearly indicate visible impacts of climatic and environmental factors on inland open water fisheries. Besides, a significant reduction in-depth and area (37.20–57.68% reduction), diversity of natural indigenous fish fauna (ranging from 22.85 to 54%) in wetlands and progression of trophic state from mesotrophic to eutrophic were recorded. In this communication, different applications of biometeorology in inland fisheries management with special reference to the assessment of ecosystem and species vulnerability to climatic variability and change have been discussed. Further, the paper discusses the impact of climate anomaly and extreme climatic events on inland fisheries and emphasizes novel modeling approaches for understanding the impact of climatic and environmental factors on reproductive phenology for identification of climate-sensitive/resilient fish species for the adoption of climate-smart fisheries in the future. Adaptation and mitigation strategies to enhance fish production and the role of culture-based fisheries and enclosure culture in converting sequestered carbon into blue carbon have also been discussed. In general, the type and direction of influence of meteorological parameters on fish biology in open water fisheries ecosystems are not adequately understood. The optimum range of meteorological parameters for sustaining inland open water fisheries is yet to be established. Therefore, the application of biometeorology in inland fisheries offers ample scope for understanding the dynamics in changing climate, which would help to develop a database on such least, addressed research frontier area. This would further help to project fisheries scenarios in changing climate regimes and develop adaptation and mitigation strategies to cope up with adverse meteorological factors to sustain fisheries and to conserve aquatic ecosystem and biodiversity.

Keywords: biometeorology, inland fisheries, aquatic ecosystem, modeling, India

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Authors: Barun K. De

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Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) is caused by two types of human immunodeficiency viruses, collectively designated HIV. HIV infection is spreading globally particularly in developing countries. Before an individual is diagnosed with HIV, the disease goes through different phases. First there is an acute early phase that is followed by an established or chronic phase. Subsequently, there is a latency period after which the individual becomes immunodeficient. It is in the acute phase that an individual is highly infectious due to a high viral load. Presently, HIV diagnosis involves use of tests that do not detect the acute phase infection during which both the viral RNA and p24 antigen are expressed. Instead, these less sensitive tests detect antibodies to viral antigens which are typically sero-converted later in the disease process following acute infection. These antibodies are detected in both asymptomatic HIV-infected individuals as well as AIDS patients. Studies indicate that early diagnosis and treatment of HIV infection can reduce medical costs, improve survival, and reduce spreading of infection to new uninfected partners. Newer 4th generation combination antigen/antibody tests are highly sensitive and specific for detection of acute and established HIV infection (HIV1 and HIV2) enabling immediate linkage to care. The CDC (Center of Disease Control, USA) recently recommended an algorithm involving three different tests to screen and diagnose acute and established infections of HIV-1 and HIV-2 in a general population. Initially a 4th generation combo test detects a viral antigen p24 and specific antibodies against HIV -1 and HIV-2 envelope proteins. If the test is positive it is followed by a second test known as a differentiation assay which detects antibodies against specific HIV-1 and HIV-2 envelope proteins confirming established infection of HIV-1 or HIV-2. However if it is negative then another test is performed that measures viral load confirming an acute HIV-1 infection. Screening results of a Phoenix area population detected 0.3% new HIV infections among which 32.4% were acute cases. Studies in the U.S. indicate that this algorithm effectively reduces HIV infection through immediate treatment and education following diagnosis.

Keywords: new algorithm, HIV, diagnosis, infection

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Authors: Fabien Candau, Florian Lafferrere

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This article analyses how an emission policy for vessels (named California’s Ocean-Going Vessel Fuel Rule) was implemented in 2009 in California impacts trade and marine biodiversity. By studying the decrease in emission levels anticipated by the policy, we measure not only the consequences for port activities but also for one of the most important marine ecosystems of the California Coast: the Kelp forests. Using the Difference in Difference (DiD) approach at the Californian ports level, we find that this policy has led to a significant decrease in trade volume during this period. Therefore, we find a positive and significant effect of shipping policy on kelp canopy and biomass growth by controlling the specific climatic and environmental characteristics of California coastal areas.

Keywords: international trade, shipping, marine biodiversity, emission control area

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Authors: Farah Islam, Md. Monirul Islam, Mosammat Salma Akter, Goutam Kumar Kundu

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The continuous variability of climate and the risk associated with it have a significant impact on the fisheries leading to a global concern for about half a billion fishery-based livelihoods. Though in the context of Bangladesh mounting evidence on the impacts of climate change on fishery-based livelihoods or their socioeconomic conditions are present, the country’s inland fisheries sector remains in a negligible corner as compared to the coastal areas which are spotted on the highlight due to its higher vulnerability to climatic hazards. The available research on inland fisheries, particularly river fisheries, has focussed mainly on fish production, pollution, fishing gear, fish biodiversity and livelihoods of the fishers. This study assesses the impacts of climate variability and changes on the Jamuna (a transboundary river called Brahmaputra in India) River fishing communities and their coping and adaptation strategies. This study has used primary data collected from Kalitola Ghat and Debdanga fishing communities of the Jamuna River during May, August and December 2015 using semi-structured interviews, oral history interviews, key informant interviews, focus group discussions and impact matrix as well as secondary data. This study has found that both communities are exposed to storms, floods and land erosions which impact on fishery-based livelihood assets, strategies, and outcomes. The impact matrix shows that human and physical capitals are more affected by climate hazards which in turn affect financial capital. Both communities have been responding to these exposures through multiple coping and adaptation strategies. The coping strategies include making dam with soil, putting jute sac on the yard, taking shelter on boat or embankment, making raised platform or ‘Kheua’ and involving with temporary jobs. While, adaptation strategies include permanent migration, change of livelihood activities and strategies, changing fishing practices and making robust houses. The study shows that migration is the most common adaptation strategy for the fishers which resulted in mostly positive outcomes for the migrants. However, this migration has impacted negatively on the livelihoods of existing fishers in the communities. In sum, the Jamuna river fishing communities have been impacted by several climatic hazards and they have traditionally coped with or adapted to the impacts which are not sufficient to maintain sustainable livelihoods and fisheries. In coming decades, this situation may become worse as predicted by latest scientific research and an enhanced level of response would be needed.

Keywords: climatic hazards, impacts and adaptation, fisherfolk, the Jamuna River

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Authors: Aratrika Sarkar, Jayita Guha Niyogi

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This paper focuses on the application of general healing design theories to modulate them into case-specific and contextual design considerations. Existing literature focuses on the relationship between architecture and mental health. Primary case studies are selected in India to focus on the effect of a specific location on design considerations. They are qualitatively analysed to further contextualise the inferences from the literature study. An academic project is cited as an example to apply the learnings from the study and understand the influence of various parameters on the design process for further conclusion. Literature studies, case studies and hypothetical design applications helped in finding the different ways of achieving the similar goal of a sensitive approach toward mental health. Along with salutogenic parameters, category of establishment, age group, location of the site and user preference plays a crucial role in the design process. Design of mental health establishments, especially in India, has to involve transparency between stakeholders and users. Owing to different climatic zones and diverse sociocultural traditions, the approach toward healing should adapt accordingly. It should be an effort towards striking a balance between contradictory elements of healing design and resolving the dilemmas with sensitivity and consensus. Lastly, the design should not force a person towards communication or companionship but rather let the person realise that naturally through the healing process.

Keywords: contextual healing design, deinstitutionalisation, Indian mental healthcare establishments, environmental psychology, salutogenesis, therapeutic design

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Authors: Rituparna Nath, Shawn J. Marshall

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Glaciers are one of the main sensitive climatic indicators, as they respond strongly to small climatic shifts. We develop a flow line model of glacier dynamics to simulate the past and future extent of glaciers in the Canadian Rocky Mountains, with the aim of coupling this model within larger scale regional climate models of glacier response to climate change. This paper will focus on glacier-climate modeling and reconstructions of glacier volume from the Little Ice Age (LIA) to present for Athabasca Glacier, Alberta, Canada. Glacier thickness, volume and mass change will be constructed using flow line modelling and examination of different climate scenarios that are able to give good reconstructions of LIA ice extent. With the availability of SPOT 5 imagery, Digital elevation models and GIS Arc Hydro tool, ice catchment properties-glacier width and LIA moraines have been extracted using automated procedures. Simulation of glacier mass change will inform estimates of meltwater run off over the historical period and model calibration from the LIA reconstruction will aid in future projections of the effects of climate change on glacier recession. Furthermore, the model developed will be effective for further future studies with ensembles of glaciers.

Keywords: flow line modeling, Athabasca Glacier, glacier mass balance, Remote Sensing, Arc hydro tool, little ice age

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Authors: Mina Rouhollahi, J. Boland

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Changes in cities’ heat balance due to rapid urbanization and the urban heat island (UHI) have increased energy demands for space cooling and have resulted in uncomfortable living conditions for urban residents. Climate resilience and comfortable living spaces can be addressed through well-designed urban development. The sustainable housing can be more effective in controlling high levels of urban heat. In Australia, to mitigate the effects of UHIs and summer heat waves, one solution to sustainable housing has been the trend to compact housing design and the construction of energy efficient dwellings. This paper analyses whether current housing configurations and orientations are effective in avoiding increased demands for air conditioning and having an energy efficient residential neighborhood. A significant amount of energy is consumed to ensure thermal comfort in houses. This paper reports on the modelling of heat transfer within the homes using the measurements of radiation, convection and conduction between exterior/interior wall surfaces and outdoor/indoor environment respectively. The simulation was tested on selected 7.5-star energy efficient houses constructed of typical material elements and insulation in Adelaide, Australia. The chosen design dwellings were analyzed in extremely hot weather through one year. The data were obtained via a thermal circuit to accurately model the fundamental heat transfer mechanisms on both boundaries of the house and through the multi-layered wall configurations. The formulation of the Lumped capacitance model was considered in discrete time steps by adopting a non-linear model method. The simulation results focused on the effects of orientation of the solar radiation on the dynamic thermal characteristics of the houses orientations. A high star rating did not necessarily coincide with a decrease in peak demands for cooling. A more effective approach to avoid increasing the demands for air conditioning and energy may be to integrate solar–climatic data to evaluate the performance of energy efficient houses.

Keywords: energy-efficient residential building, heat transfer, neighborhood orientation, solar–climatic data

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Authors: Sertac Arslan, Sezer Kefeli

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In this paper, firstly supercavitating phenomenon and supercavity shape design parameters are explained and then drag force calculation methods of high speed supercavitating torpedoes are investigated with numerical techniques and verified with empirical studies. In order to reach huge speeds such as 200, 300 knots for underwater vehicles, hydrodynamic hull drag force which is proportional to density of water (ρ) and square of speed should be reduced. Conventional heavy weight torpedoes could reach up to ~50 knots by classic underwater hydrodynamic techniques. However, to exceed 50 knots and reach about 200 knots speeds, hydrodynamic viscous forces must be reduced or eliminated completely. This requirement revives supercavitation phenomena that could be implemented to conventional torpedoes. Supercavitation is the use of cavitation effects to create a gas bubble, allowing the torpedo to move at huge speed through the water by being fully developed cavitation bubble. When the torpedo moves in a cavitation envelope due to cavitator in nose section and solid fuel rocket engine in rear section, this kind of torpedoes could be entitled as Supercavitating Torpedoes. There are two types of cavitation; first one is natural cavitation, and second one is ventilated cavitation. In this study, disk cavitator is modeled with natural cavitation and supercavitation phenomenon parameters are studied. Moreover, drag force calculation is performed for disk shape cavitator with numerical techniques and compared via empirical studies. Drag forces are calculated with computational fluid dynamics methods and different empirical methods. Numerical calculation method is developed by comparing with empirical results. In verification study cavitation number (σ), drag coefficient (CD) and drag force (D), cavity wall velocity (U

Keywords: cavity envelope, CFD, high speed underwater vehicles, supercavitation, supercavity flows

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Authors: Chelali Mohammed

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In the context of the application of the competency-based approach in the system educational Algeria, the price of physical education and sport must privilege the acquisition of learning approaches and especially the approach science, which from problem situations, research and develops him information processing and application of knowledge and know-how in new situations in the words of ‘JOHN DEWEY’ ‘learning by practice’. And to achieve these goals and make teaching more EPS motivating, consistent and concrete, it is appropriate to perform a pedagogical approach freed from the constraints and open to creativity and student-centered in the light of the competency approach adopted in the formal curriculum. This approach is not unusual, but we think it is a highly professional nature requires the competence of the teacher.

Keywords: approach competencies, physical, education, teachers

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Authors: Yu-Jen Chang, Yun Chen, Hei-Lam Wong

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The Economic Lot Scheduling Problem (ELSP) is a valuable mathematical model that can support decision-makers to make scheduling decisions. The basic period approach is effective for solving the ELSP. The assumption for applying the basic period approach is that a product must use its maximum production rate to be produced. However, a product can lower its production rate to reduce the average total cost when a facility has extra idle time. The past researches discussed how a product adjusts its production rate under the common cycle approach. To the best of our knowledge, no studies have addressed how a product lowers its production rate under the basic period approach. This research is the first paper to discuss this topic. The research develops a simple fixed rate approach that adjusts the production rate of a product under the basic period approach to solve the ELSP. Our numerical example shows our approach can find a better solution than the traditional basic period approach. Our mathematical model that applies the fixed rate approach under the basic period approach can serve as a reference for other related researches.

Keywords: economic lot, basic period, genetic algorithm, fixed rate

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Authors: Rastislav Stojsavljevic

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During most of the Middle Ages, warmer-than-average weather prevailed in the Balkan Peninsula in Southeast Europe. This period is also called Medieval Climate Optimum. It had its most noticeable phases during the 12th and 13th centuries. Due to climatic conditions, the appearance of unstable weather was observed. Strong storms and hail were a frequent occurrence. From the 9th to the 15th century, the Christian religion dominated the Balkan Peninsula. From East-West Schism (1054 A.D.), most of the people in Balkan states belonged to Eastern Orthodox churches: Byzantium, Bulgaria, Serbia and Bosnia. Medieval Croatia and the coastal part (the Adriatic Sea) of Zeta belonged to the Roman Catholic church. In addition to the dominant Christian religion, a lot of pagan Slavic cults remained in the Balkans during the Middle Ages. Various superstitions were a regular occurrence. They were dominant during severe storms, floods, great droughts, the appearance of comets, etc. In this paper, the appearance of warm and cold temperature spells will be investigated. In the second half of the 14th century, the Little Ice Age began and lasted for several centuries. The period of the first half of the 15th century is characterized by cold and snowy winters. Hunger was a regular occurrence. This has given rise to many beliefs which will be researched and mentioned in the paper.

Keywords: the Balkans, religion, medieval climate optimum, little ice age

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Authors: Sezer Kefeli, Sertaç Arslan

Abstract:

In this paper, supercavitationphenomena, and parameters are explained, and hydrodynamic design approaches are investigated for supercavitating torpedoes. In addition, drag force calculation methods ofsupercavitatingvehicles are obtained. Basically, conventional heavyweight torpedoes reach up to ~50 knots by classic hydrodynamic techniques, on the other hand super cavitating torpedoes may reach up to ~200 knots, theoretically. However, in order to reachhigh speeds, hydrodynamic viscous forces have to be reduced or eliminated completely. This necessity is revived the supercavitation phenomena that is implemented to conventional torpedoes. Supercavitation is a type of cavitation, after all, it is more stable and continuous than other cavitation types. The general principle of supercavitation is to separate the underwater vehicle from water phase by surrounding the vehicle with cavitation bubbles. This situation allows the torpedo to operate at high speeds through the water being fully developed cavitation. Conventional torpedoes are entitled as supercavitating torpedoes when the torpedo moves in a cavity envelope due to cavitator in the nose section and solid fuel rocket engine in the rear section. There are two types of supercavitation phase, these are natural and artificial cavitation phases. In this study, natural cavitation is investigated on the disk cavitators based on numerical methods. Once the supercavitation characteristics and drag reduction of natural cavitationare studied on CFD platform, results are verified with the empirical equations. As supercavitation parameters cavitation number (), pressure distribution along axial axes, drag coefficient (C_?) and drag force (D), cavity wall velocity (U_?) and dimensionless cavity shape parameters, which are cavity length (L_?/d_?), cavity diameter(d_ₘ/d_?) and cavity fineness ratio (〖L_?/d〗_ₘ) are investigated and compared with empirical results. This paper has the characteristics of feasibility study to carry out numerical solutions of the supercavitation phenomena comparing with empirical equations.

Keywords: CFD, cavity envelope, high speed underwater vehicles, supercavitating flows, supercavitation, drag reduction, supercavitation parameters

Procedia PDF Downloads 144