Search results for: atmospheric models

Authors: Ibrahim Makram Ibrahim Salib

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Agriculture plays an essential role in providing food for the world's population. It also offers numerous benefits to countries, including non-food products, transportation, and environmental balance. Precision agriculture, which employs advanced tools to monitor variability and manage inputs, can help achieve these benefits. The increasing demand for food security puts pressure on decision-makers to ensure sufficient food production worldwide. To support sustainable agriculture, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) can be utilized to manage farms and increase yields. This paper aims to provide an understanding of UAV usage and its applications in agriculture. The objective is to review the various applications of UAVs in agriculture. Based on a comprehensive review of existing research, it was found that different sensors provide varying analyses for agriculture applications. Therefore, the purpose of the project must be determined before using UAV technology for better data quality and analysis. In conclusion, identifying a suitable sensor and UAV is crucial to gather accurate data and precise analysis when using UAVs in agriculture.

Keywords: agriculture land, agriculture land loss, Kabul city, urban land expansion, urbanization agriculture yield growth, agriculture yield prediction, explorative data analysis, predictive models, regression models drone, precision agriculture, farmer income

Procedia PDF Downloads 75

Authors: E. D. Paul, A. D. Adams, O. Sunmonu, U. S. Ishiaku

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Activated tamarind kernel powder (ATKP) was prepared from tamarind fruit (Tamarindus indica), and utilized for the removal of Reactive Blue 29 (RB29) from its aqueous solution. The powder was activated using 4N nitric acid (HNO₃). The adsorbent was characterised using infrared spectroscopy, bulk density, ash content, pH, moisture content and dry matter content measurements. The effect of various parameters which include; temperature, pH, adsorbent dosage, ion concentration, and contact time were studied. Four different equilibrium isotherm models were tested on the experimental data, but the Temkin isotherm model was best-fitted into the experimental data. The pseudo-first order and pseudo-second-order kinetic models were also fitted into the graphs, but pseudo-second order was best fitted to the experimental data. The thermodynamic parameters showed that the adsorption of Reactive Blue 29 onto activated tamarind kernel powder is a physical process, feasible and spontaneous, exothermic in nature and there is decreased randomness at the solid/solution interphase during the adsorption process. Therefore, activated tamarind kernel powder has proven to be a very good adsorbent for the removal of Reactive Blue 29 dyes from industrial waste water.

Keywords: tamarind kernel powder, reactive blue 29, isotherms, kinetics

Procedia PDF Downloads 248

Authors: Sandra T. Matarneh, Mark Danso-Amoako, Salam Al-Bizri, Mark Gaterell

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Today’s facilities are ever more sophisticated and the need for available and reliable information for operation and maintenance activities is vital. The key challenge for facilities managers is to have real-time accurate and complete information to perform their day-to-day activities and to provide their senior management with accurate information for decision-making process. Currently, there are various technology platforms, data repositories, or database systems such as Computer-Aided Facility Management (CAFM) that are used for these purposes in different facilities. In most current practices, the data is extracted from paper construction documents and is re-entered manually in one of these computerized information systems. Construction Operations Building information exchange (COBie), is a non-proprietary data format that contains the asset non-geometric data which was captured and collected during the design and construction phases for owners and facility managers use. Recently software vendors developed add-in applications to generate COBie spreadsheet automatically. However, most of these add-in applications are capable of generating a limited amount of COBie data, in which considerable time is still required to enter the remaining data manually to complete the COBie spreadsheet. Some of the data which cannot be generated by these COBie add-ins is essential for facilities manager’s day-to-day activities such as job sheet which includes preventive maintenance schedules. To facilitate a seamless data transfer between BIM models and facilities management systems, we developed a framework that enables automated data generation using the data extracted directly from BIM models to external web database, and then enabling different stakeholders to access to the external web database to enter the required asset data directly to generate a rich COBie spreadsheet that contains most of the required asset data for efficient facilities management operations. The proposed framework is a part of ongoing research and will be demonstrated and validated on a typical university building. Moreover, the proposed framework supplements the existing body of knowledge in facilities management domain by providing a novel framework that facilitates seamless data transfer between BIM models and facilities management systems.

Keywords: building information modeling, BIM, facilities management systems, interoperability, information management

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Authors: Zafer Yüce, Paşa Yayla, Alev Taşkın

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There are heaps of analytical methods to estimate the crack growth life of a component. Soft computing methods have an increasing trend in predicting fatigue life. Their ability to build complex relationships and capability to handle huge amounts of data are motivating researchers and industry professionals to employ them for challenging problems. This study focuses on soft computing methods, especially random forest regressors and artificial neural networks with hyperparameter optimization algorithms such as grid search and random grid search, to estimate the crack growth life of an aircraft wing splice joint under variable amplitude loading. TensorFlow and Scikit-learn libraries of Python are used to build the machine learning models for this study. The material considered in this work is 7050-T7451 aluminum, which is commonly preferred as a structural element in the aerospace industry, and regarding the crack type; corner crack is used. A finite element model is built for the joint to calculate fastener loads and stresses on the structure. Since finite element model results are validated with analytical calculations, findings of the finite element model are fed to AFGROW software to calculate analytical crack growth lives. Based on Fighter Aircraft Loading Standard for Fatigue (FALSTAFF), 90 unique fatigue loading spectra are developed for various load levels, and then, these spectrums are utilized as inputs to the artificial neural network and random forest regression models for predicting crack growth life. Finally, the crack growth life predictions of the machine learning models are compared with analytical calculations. According to the findings, a good correlation is observed between analytical and predicted crack growth lives.

Keywords: aircraft, fatigue, joint, life, optimization, prediction.

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Authors: Charly Julien Nyobe, Eric Jacquelin, Denis Brizard, Alexy Mercier

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The performance of road side safety barriers depends largely on the dynamic interactions between post and soil. These interactions play a key role in the response of barriers to crash testing. In the literature, soil-post interaction is modeled in crash test simulations using three approaches. Many researchers have initially used the finite element approach, in which the post is embedded in a continuum soil modelled by solid finite elements. This method represents a more comprehensive and detailed approach, employing a mesh-based continuum to model the soil’s behavior and its interaction with the post. Although this method takes all soil properties into account, it is nevertheless very costly in terms of simulation time. In the second approach, all the points of the post located at a predefined depth are fixed. Although this approach reduces CPU computing time, it overestimates soil-post stiffness. The third approach involves modeling the post as a beam supported by a set of nonlinear springs in the horizontal directions. For support in the vertical direction, the posts were constrained at a node at ground level. This approach is less costly, but the literature does not provide a simple procedure to determine the constitutive law of the springs The aim of this study is to propose a simple and low-cost procedure to obtain the constitutive law of nonlinear springs that model the soil-post interaction. To achieve this objective, we will first present a procedure to obtain the constitutive law of nonlinear springs thanks to the simulation of a soil compression test. The test consists in compressing the soil contained in the tank by a rigid solid, up to a vertical displacement of 200 mm. The resultant force exerted by the ground on the rigid solid and its vertical displacement are extracted and, a force-displacement curve was determined. The proposed procedure for replacing the soil with springs must be tested against a reference model. The reference model consists of a wooden post embedded into the ground and impacted with an impactor. Two simplified models with springs are studied. In the first model, called Kh-Kv model, the springs are attached to the post in the horizontal and vertical directions. The second Kh model is the one described in the literature. The two simplified models are compared with the reference model according to several criteria: the displacement of a node located at the top of the post in vertical and horizontal directions; displacement of the post's center of rotation and impactor velocity. The results given by both simplified models are very close to the reference model results. It is noticeable that the Kh-Kv model is slightly better than the Kh model. Further, the former model is more interesting than the latter as it involves less arbitrary conditions. The simplified models also reduce the simulation time by a factor 4. The Kh-Kv model can therefore be used as a reliable tool to represent the soil-post interaction in a future research and development of road safety barriers.

Keywords: crash tests, nonlinear springs, soil-post interaction modeling, constitutive law

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Authors: Keisuke Fujioka, Yuta Itoh, Masaru Minagawa, Shunji Kusayanagi

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In this study, building information models of the underground temporary structures and adjacent embedded pipes were constructed to show the importance of the information on underground pipes adjacent to the structures to enhance the productivity of execution of construction. Next, the bar chart used in actual construction process were employed to make the Gantt chart, and the critical pass analysis was carried out to show that accurate information on the arrangement of underground existing pipes can be used for the enhancement of the productivity of the construction of underground structures. In the analyzed project, significant construction delay was not caused by unforeseeable existence of underground pipes by the management ability of the construction manager. However, in many cases of construction executions in the developing countries, the existence of unforeseeable embedded pipes often causes substantial delay of construction. Design change based on uncertainty on the position information of embedded pipe can be also important risk for contractors in domestic construction. So CPM analyses were performed by a project-management-software to the situation that influence of the tasks causing construction delay was assumed more significant. Through the analyses, the efficiency of information management on underground pipes and BIM analysis in the design stage for workability improvement was indirectly confirmed.

Keywords: building-information modelling, construction information modelling, design improvement, infrastructure

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Authors: Kuo-Wei Hsu, Shu-Fang Huang

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Global trend in creative economies promoted the modernization process of the development of cultural and creative industries and technology coincided with the craft industry towards value-added industrial restructuring. Due to government support and economic motivation in the private sector, regional craft products have emerged across counties and cities all over Taiwan which have led to an increased focus on craft culture promotion. However, most craft industry corporations in Taiwan are micro-enterprise, restricted operating profitability. This phenomenon shows the weakness of craft industry constitution when facing the rapid expansion of global economic commerce and manufacturing. In recent years, combining public and private enterprise, Platform business models revolutionary changed in craft industries’ original operation and transaction models. Therefore, this study attempts to explore the effects by implementing platform strategy on bamboo industry development in Nantou, the hometown of crafts in Taiwan, with an experimental investigation. This study concluded that platform strategy increases essence and insubstantial value for the bamboo industry in Taiwan. This study explored the economic value added of Taiwan bamboo village with three perspectives: Community participation, Culture Conservation, Regional Rejuvenation.

Keywords: platform strategy, craft industry, economic value-added

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Authors: Champika S. Kariyawasam

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The distribution of gorse (Ulex europaeus) plants in South Australia has been modelled using 126 presence-only location data as a function of seven climate parameters. The predicted range of U. europaeus is mainly along the Mount Lofty Ranges in the Adelaide Hills and on Kangaroo Island. Annual precipitation and yearly average aridity index appeared to be the highest contributing variables to the final model formulation. The Jackknife procedure was employed to identify the contribution of different variables to gorse model outputs and response curves were used to predict changes with changing environmental variables. Based on this analysis, it was revealed that the combined effect of one or more variables could make a completely different impact to the original variables on their own to the model prediction. This work also demonstrates the need for a careful approach when selecting environmental variables for projecting correlative models to climatically distinct area. Maxent acts as a robust model when projecting the fitted species distribution model to another area with changing climatic conditions, whereas the generalized linear model, bioclim, and domain models to be less robust in this regard. These findings are important not only for predicting and managing invasive alien gorse in South Australia and Sri Lanka but also in other countries of the invasive range.

Keywords: invasive species, Maxent, species distribution modelling, Ulex europaeus

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Authors: Saowapa Phaithayawat

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The purposes of this study are: 1) to study the impact of the 3-community-core model: House (H), Temple (T), and School (S) with the co-operation of official departments on community development to ASEAN economic community involvement, and 2) to study the procedures and extension of the model. The research which is a qualitative research based on formal and informal interviews. Local people in a community are observed. Group interview is also operated by executors and cooperators in the school in the community. In terms of social and cultural dimension, the 3-community-core model consisting of house, temple and school is the base of Thai cultures bringing about understanding, happiness and unity to the community. The result of this research is that the official departments in accompanied with this model developers cooperatively work together in the community to support such factors as budget, plan, activities. Moreover, the need of community, and the continual result to sustain the community are satisfied by the model implementation. In terms of the procedures of the model implementation, executors and co-operators can work, coordinate, think, and launch their public relation altogether. Concerning the model development, this enables the community to achieve its goal to prepare the community’s readiness for ASEAN Economic Community involvement.

Keywords: ASEAN Economic Community, the applying models and sufficiency development, house, temple, school

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Authors: Minho Lee, Donghyun Back, Jaemoon Jung, Woojin Park

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The current 3-dimensional (3D) posture prediction models commonly provide only a few optimal postures to achieve a specific objective. The problem with such models is that they are incapable of rapidly providing several optimal posture candidates according to various situations. In order to solve this problem, this paper presents a 3D memory-based posture planning (3D MBPP) model, which is a new digital human model that can analyze the feasible postures in 3D space for reaching tasks that have postural constraints and specific reaching space. The 3D MBPP model can be applied to the types of works that are done with constrained working postures and have specific reaching space. The examples of such works include driving an excavator, driving automobiles, painting buildings, working at an office, pitching/batting, and boxing. For these types of works, a limited amount of space is required to store all of the feasible postures, as the hand reaches boundary can be determined prior to perform the task. This prevents computation time from increasing exponentially, which has been one of the major drawbacks of memory-based posture planning model in 3D space. This paper validates the utility of 3D MBPP model using a practical example of analyzing baseball batting posture. In baseball, batters swing with both feet fixed to the ground. This motion is appropriate for use with the 3D MBPP model since the player must try to hit the ball when the ball is located inside the strike zone (a limited area) in a constrained posture. The results from the analysis showed that the stored and the optimal postures vary depending on the ball’s flying path, the hitting location, the batter’s body size, and the batting objective. These results can be used to establish the optimal postural strategies for achieving the batting objective and performing effective hitting. The 3D MBPP model can also be applied to various domains to determine the optimal postural strategies and improve worker comfort.

Keywords: baseball, memory-based, posture prediction, reaching area, 3D digital human models

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Authors: S. Sharan Sundar, Nithish B. Moudhgalya, Nidhi Bhandari, Vineeth Vijayaraghavan

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Automatic Short Answer Grading is one of the prime applications of artificial intelligence in education. Several approaches involving the utilization of selective handcrafted features, graphical matching techniques, concept identification and mapping, complex deep frameworks, sentence embeddings, etc. have been explored over the years. However, keeping in mind the real-world application of the task, these solutions present a slight overhead in terms of computations and resources in achieving high performances. In this work, a simple and effective solution making use of elemental features based on statistical, linguistic properties, and word-based similarity measures in conjunction with tree-based classifiers and regressors is proposed. The results for classification tasks show improvements ranging from 1%-30%, while the regression task shows a stark improvement of 35%. The authors attribute these improvements to the addition of multiple similarity scores to provide ensemble of scoring criteria to the models. The authors also believe the work could reinstate that classical natural language processing techniques and simple machine learning models can be used to achieve high results for short answer grading.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, intelligent systems, natural language processing, text mining

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Authors: Xinyi Le

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In this paper, 3D printing orientations were determined through our perceptual model. Some FDM (Fused Deposition Modeling) 3D printers, which are widely used in universities and industries, often require support structures during the additive manufacturing. After removing the residual material, some surface artifacts remain at the contact points. These artifacts will damage the function and visual effect of the model. To prevent the impact of these artifacts, we present a fuzzy extreme learning machine approach to find printing directions that avoid placing supports in perceptually significant regions. The proposed approach is able to solve the evaluation problem by combing both the subjective knowledge and objective information. Our method combines the advantages of fuzzy theory, auto-encoders, and extreme learning machine. Fuzzy set theory is applied for dealing with subjective preference information, and auto-encoder step is used to extract good features without supervised labels before extreme learning machine. An extreme learning machine method is then developed successfully for training and learning perceptual models. The performance of this perceptual model will be demonstrated on both natural and man-made objects. It is a good human-computer interaction practice which draws from supporting knowledge on both the machine side and the human side.

Keywords: 3d printing, perceptual model, fuzzy evaluation, data-driven approach

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Authors: Vesna Karapetkovska Hristova, M. Ayaz Ahmad, Julijana Tomovska, Biljana Bogdanova Popov, Blagojce Najdovski

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The average total concentrations of heavy metals; (cadmium [Cd], copper [Cu], nickel [Ni], lead [Pb], and zinc [Zn]) were analyzed in soil and vegetables samples collected from the different region of Macedonia during the years 2010-2012. Basic soil properties such as pH, organic matter and clay content were also included in the study. The average concentrations of Cd, Cu, Ni, Pb, Zn in the A horizon (0-30 cm) of agricultural soils were as follows, respectively: 0.25, 5.3, 6.9, 15.2, 26.3 mg kg-1 of soil. We have found that neural networking model can be considered as a tool for prediction and spatial analysis of the processes controlling the metal transfer within the soil-and vegetables. The predictive ability of such models is well over 80% as compared to 20% for typical regression models. A radial basic function network reflects good predicting accuracy and correlation coefficients between soil properties and metal content in vegetables much better than the back-propagation method. Neural Networking / soft computing can support the decision-making processes at different levels, including agro ecology, to improve crop management based on monitoring data and risk assessment of metal transfer from soils to vegetables.

Keywords: soft computing approach, total concentrations, heavy metals, agricultural soils

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Authors: Sergio Celaschi, Henrique Canavarro de Alencar, Claaudecir Biazoli

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Effluent quality is of the highest priority for compliance with the permit limits of environmental protection agencies and ensures the protection of their local water system. Of the pollutants monitored, the biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) posed one of the greatest challenges. This work presents a solution for wastewater treatment plants - WWTP’s ability to react to different situations and meet treatment goals. Delayed BOD5 results from the lab take 7 to 8 analysis days, hindered the WWTP’s ability to react to different situations and meet treatment goals. Reducing BOD turnaround time from days to hours is our quest. Such a solution is based on a system of two BOD bioreactors associated with Digital Twin (DT) and Machine Learning (ML) methodologies via an Internet of Things (IoT) platform to monitor and control a WWTP to support decision making. DT is a virtual and dynamic replica of a production process. DT requires the ability to collect and store real-time sensor data related to the operating environment. Furthermore, it integrates and organizes the data on a digital platform and applies analytical models allowing a deeper understanding of the real process to catch sooner anomalies. In our system of continuous time monitoring of the BOD suppressed by the effluent treatment process, the DT algorithm for analyzing the data uses ML on a chemical kinetic parameterized model. The continuous BOD monitoring system, capable of providing results in a fraction of the time required by BOD5 analysis, is composed of two thermally isolated batch bioreactors. Each bioreactor contains input/output access to wastewater sample (influent and effluent), hydraulic conduction tubes, pumps, and valves for batch sample and dilution water, air supply for dissolved oxygen (DO) saturation, cooler/heater for sample thermal stability, optical ODO sensor based on fluorescence quenching, pH, ORP, temperature, and atmospheric pressure sensors, local PLC/CPU for TCP/IP data transmission interface. The dynamic BOD system monitoring range covers 2 mg/L < BOD < 2,000 mg/L. In addition to the BOD monitoring system, there are many other operational WWTP sensors. The CPU data is transmitted/received to/from the digital platform, which in turn performs analyses at periodic intervals, aiming to feed the learning process. BOD bulletins and their credibility intervals are made available in 12-hour intervals to web users. The chemical kinetics ML algorithm is composed of a coupled system of four first-order ordinary differential equations for the molar masses of DO, organic material present in the sample, biomass, and products (CO₂ and H₂O) of the reaction. This system is solved numerically linked to its initial conditions: DO (saturated) and initial products of the kinetic oxidation process; CO₂ = H₂0 = 0. The initial values for organic matter and biomass are estimated by the method of minimization of the mean square deviations. A real case of continuous monitoring of BOD wastewater effluent quality is being conducted by deploying an IoT application on a large wastewater purification system located in S. Paulo, Brazil.

Keywords: effluent treatment, biochemical oxygen demand, continuous monitoring, IoT, machine learning

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Authors: Rasha Aljaryian, Lalit Kumar

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Climate is undergoing continuous change and this trend will affect the cultivation areas ofmost crops, including wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), in the future. The current suitable cultivation areas may become unsuitable climatically. Countries that depend on wheat cultivation and export may suffer an economic loss because of production decline. On the other hand, some regions of the world could gain economically by increasing cultivation areas. This study models the potential future climatic suitability of wheat by using CLIMEX software. Two different global climate models (GCMs) were used, CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR), with two emission scenarios (A2, A1B). The results of this research indicate that the suitable climatic areas for wheat in the southern hemisphere, such as Australia, are expected to contract by the end of this century. However, some unsuitable or marginal areas will become climatically suitable under future climate scenarios. In North America and Europe further expansion inland could occur. Also, the results illustrate that heat and dry stresses as abiotic climatic factors will play an important role in wheat distribution in the future. Providing sufficient information about future wheat distribution will be useful for agricultural ministries and organizations to manage the shift in production areas in the future. They can minimize the expected harmful economic consequences by preparing strategic plans and identifying new areas for wheat cultivation.

Keywords: Climate change, Climate modelling, CLIMEX, Triticum aestivum, Wheat

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Authors: Sudipt Agarwal, Siddharth Verma, S. M. Iqbal, Hitik Kalra

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Natural gas as a fuel has created wonders, but on the contrary, the ill-effects of methane have been a great worry for professionals. The largest source of methane emission is the oil and gas industry among all industries. Methane depletes groundwater and being a greenhouse gas has devastating effects on the atmosphere too. Methane remains for a decade or two in the atmosphere and later breaks into carbon dioxide and thus damages it immensely, as it warms up the atmosphere 72 times more than carbon dioxide in those two decades and keeps on harming after breaking into carbon dioxide afterward. The property of a fluid to adhere to the surface of a solid, better known as adsorption, can be a great boon to minimize the hindrance caused by methane. Adsorption of methane during upstream processes can save the groundwater and atmospheric depletion around the site which can be hugely lucrative to earn profits which are reduced due to environmental degradation leading to project cancellation. The paper would deal with reasons why casing and cementing are not able to prevent leakage and would suggest methods to adsorb methane during upstream processes with mathematical explanation using volumetric analysis of adsorption of methane on the surface of activated carbon doped with copper oxides (which increases the absorption by 54%). The paper would explain in detail (through a cost estimation) how the proposed idea can be hugely beneficial not only to environment but also to the profits earned.

Keywords: adsorption, casing, cementing, cost estimation, volumetric analysis

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Authors: Kien-Trinh Thi Bui, Cuong Manh Nguyen

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In order to simulate and reproduce the operational characteristics of a dam visually, it is necessary to capture the displacement at different measurement points and analyze the observed movement data promptly to forecast the dam safety. The accuracy of forecasts is further improved by applying machine learning methods to data analysis progress. In this study, the horizontal displacement monitoring data of the Ialy hydroelectric dam was applied to machine learning algorithms: Gaussian processes, multi-layer perceptron neural networks, and the M5-rules algorithm for modelling and forecasting of horizontal displacement of the Ialy hydropower dam (Vietnam), respectively, for analysing. The database which used in this research was built by collecting time series of data from 2006 to 2021 and divided into two parts: training dataset and validating dataset. The final results show all three algorithms have high performance for both training and model validation, but the MLPs is the best model. The usability of them are further investigated by comparison with a benchmark models created by multi-linear regression. The result show the performance which obtained from all the GP model, the MLPs model and the M5-Rules model are much better, therefore these three models should be used to analyze and predict the horizontal displacement of the dam.

Keywords: Gaussian processes, horizontal displacement, hydropower dam, Ialy dam, M5-Rules, multi-layer perception neural networks

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Authors: M. Khalid, W. Rashmi, L. L. Kwan

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This work provides an overview on the experimental and numerical simulations of various nanofluids and their flow and heat transfer behavior. It was further extended to study the effect of nanoparticle concentration, fluid flow rates and thermo-physical properties on the heat transfer enhancement of Al2O3/water nanofluid in a turbulent flow circular conduit using ANSYS FLUENT™ 14.0. Single-phase approximation (homogeneous model) and two-phase (mixture and Eulerian) models were used to simulate the nanofluid flow behavior in the 3-D horizontal pipe. The numerical results were further validated with experimental correlations reported in the literature. It was found that heat transfer of nanofluids increases with increasing particle volume concentration and Reynolds number, respectively. Results showed good agreement (~9% deviation) with the experimental correlations, especially for a single-phase model with constant properties. Among two-phase models, mixture model (~14% deviation) showed better prediction compared to Eulerian-dispersed model (~18% deviation) when temperature independent properties were used. Non-drag forces were also employed in the Eulerian two-phase model. However, the two-phase mixture model with temperature dependent nanofluid properties gave slightly closer agreement (~12% deviation).

Keywords: nanofluid, CFD, heat transfer, forced convection, circular conduit

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Authors: Noora Al-Shanfari, M. Mazharul Islam

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The cumulative incidence function (CIF) is a fundamental approach for analyzing survival data in the presence of competing risks, which estimates the marginal probability for each competing event. Parametric modeling of CIF has the advantage of fitting various shapes of CIF and estimates the impact of covariates with maximum efficiency. To calculate the total CIF's covariate influence using a parametric model., it is essential to parametrize the baseline of the CIF. As the CIF is an improper function by nature, it is necessary to utilize an improper distribution when applying parametric models. The Gompertz distribution, which is an improper distribution, is limited in its applicability as it only accounts for monotone hazard shapes. The generalized Gompertz distribution, however, can adapt to a wider range of hazard shapes, including unimodal, bathtub, and monotonic increasing or decreasing hazard shapes. In this paper, the generalized Gompertz distribution is used to parametrize the baseline of the CIF, and the parameters of the proposed model are estimated using the maximum likelihood approach. The proposed model is compared with the existing Gompertz model using the Akaike information criterion. Appropriate statistical test procedures and model-fitting criteria will be used to test the adequacy of the model. Both models are applied to the ‘colon’ dataset, which is available in the “biostat3” package in R.

Keywords: competing risks, cumulative incidence function, improper distribution, parametric modeling, survival analysis

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Authors: Sabyasachi Mukhopadhyay, Joseph Ogutu, Hans-Peter Piepho

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We aim to model dynamics of wildlife or pastoral livestock population for understanding of their population change and hence for wildlife conservation and promoting human welfare. The study is motivated by an age-sex structured population counts in different regions of Serengeti-Mara during the period 1989-2003. Developing reliable and realistic models for population dynamics of large herbivore population can be a very complex and challenging exercise. However, the Bayesian statistical domain offers some flexible computational methods that enable the development and efficient implementation of complex population dynamics models. In this work, we have used a novel Bayesian state-space model to analyse the dynamics of topi and hartebeest populations in the Serengeti-Mara Ecosystem of East Africa. The state-space model involves survival probabilities of the animals which further depend on various factors like monthly rainfall, size of habitat, etc. that cause recent declines in numbers of the herbivore populations and potentially threaten their future population viability in the ecosystem. Our study shows that seasonal rainfall is the most important factors shaping the population size of animals and indicates the age-class which most severely affected by any change in weather conditions.

Keywords: bayesian state-space model, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, population dynamics, conservation

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Authors: Steven D. P. Moore

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An electrical discharge in the air induces an electromagnetic (EM) wave capable of wireless transfer, reception, and conversion back into electrical discharge at a distant location. Following Norton’s ground wave principles, EM wave radiation (EMR) runs parallel to the Earth’s surface. Energy in an EMR wave can move through the air and be focused to create a spark at a distant location, focused by a receiver to generate a local electrical discharge. This local discharge can be amplified and stored but also has the propensity to initiate another EMR wave. In addition to typical EM waves, lightning is also associated with atmospheric events, trans-ionospheric pulse pairs, the most powerful natural EMR signal on the planet. With each lightning strike, regardless of global position, it generates naturally occurring pulse-pairs that are emitted towards space within a narrow cone. An EMR wave can self-propagate, travel at the speed of light, and, if polarized, contain vector properties. If this reflective pulse could be directed by design through structures that have increased probabilities for lighting strikes, it could theoretically travel near the surface of the Earth at light speed towards a selected receiver for local transformation into electrical energy. Through research, there are several influencing parameters that could be modified to model, test, and increase the potential for adopting this technology towards the goal of developing a global grid that utilizes natural sources of energy.

Keywords: electricity, sparkgap, wireless, electromagnetic

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Authors: Selin Guney, Andres Riquelme

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Among the main purposes of optimal and efficient forecasts of agricultural commodity prices is to guide the firms to advance the economic decision making process such as planning business operations and marketing decisions. Governments are also the beneficiaries and suppliers of agricultural price forecasts. They use this information to establish a proper agricultural policy, and hence, the forecasts affect social welfare and systematic errors in forecasts could lead to a misallocation of scarce resources. Various empirical approaches have been applied to forecast commodity prices that have used different methodologies. Most commonly-used approaches to forecast commodity sectors depend on classical time series models that assume values of the response variables are precise which is quite often not true in reality. Recently, this literature has mostly evolved to a consideration of fuzzy time series models that provide more flexibility in terms of the classical time series models assumptions such as stationarity, and large sample size requirement. Besides, fuzzy modeling approach allows decision making with estimated values under incomplete information or uncertainty. A number of fuzzy time series models have been developed and implemented over the last decades; however, most of them are not appropriate for forecasting repeated and nonconsecutive transitions in the data. The modeling scheme used in this paper eliminates this problem by introducing Markov modeling approach that takes into account both the repeated and nonconsecutive transitions. Also, the determination of length of interval is crucial in terms of the accuracy of forecasts. The problem of determining the length of interval arbitrarily is overcome and a methodology to determine the proper length of interval based on the distribution or mean of the first differences of series to improve forecast accuracy is proposed. The specific purpose of this paper is to propose and investigate the potential of a new forecasting model that integrates methodologies for determining the proper length of interval based on the distribution or mean of the first differences of series and Fuzzy Time Series- Markov Chain model. Moreover, the accuracy of the forecasting performance of proposed integrated model is compared to different univariate time series models and the superiority of proposed method over competing methods in respect of modelling and forecasting on the basis of forecast evaluation criteria is demonstrated. The application is to daily corn and soybean prices observed at three commercially important North Carolina markets; Candor, Cofield and Roaring River for corn and Fayetteville, Cofield and Greenville City for soybeans respectively. One main conclusion from this paper is that using fuzzy logic improves the forecast performance and accuracy; the effectiveness and potential benefits of the proposed model is confirmed with small selection criteria value such MAPE. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of integrating fuzzy logic and nonarbitrary determination of length of interval for the reliability and accuracy of price forecasts. The empirical results represent a significant contribution to our understanding of the applicability of fuzzy modeling in commodity price forecasts.

Keywords: commodity, forecast, fuzzy, Markov

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Authors: Cristiane R. Magalhaes

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Advances in Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) have led to changes in different sectors particularly in architecture, engineering, construction, and operation (AECO) industry. In this context, the advent of BIM (Building Information Modeling) has brought a number of opportunities in the field of the digital architectural design process bringing integrated design concepts that impact on the development, elaboration, coordination, and management of ventures. The project scope has begun to contemplate, from its original stage, the third dimension, by means of virtual environments (VEs), composed of models containing different specialties, substituting the two-dimensional products. The possibility to simulate the construction process of a venture in a VE starts at the beginning of the design process offering, through new technologies, many possibilities beyond geometrical digital modeling. This is a significant change and relates not only to form, but also to how information is appropriated in architectural and engineering models and exchanged among professionals. In order to achieve the main objective of this work, the Design Science Research Method will be adopted to elaborate an artifact containing strategies for the application and use of ICTs from BIM flows, with pre-construction cut-off to the execution of the building. This article intends to discuss and investigate how BIM can be extended to the site acting as a protagonist and link between the Virtual Environments and the Real-World, as well as its contribution to the integration of the value chain and the consequent increase of efficiency in the production of the building. The virtualization of the design process has reached high levels of development through the use of BIM. Therefore it is essential that the lessons learned with the virtual models be transposed to the actual building production increasing precision and efficiency. Thus, this paper discusses how the Fourth Industrial Revolution has impacted on property developments and how BIM could be the propellant acting as the main fuel and link between the virtual environment and the real production for the structuring of flows, information management and efficiency in this process. The results obtained are partial and not definite up to the date of this publication. This research is part of a doctoral thesis development, which focuses on the discussion of the impact of digital transformation in the construction of residential buildings in Brazil.

Keywords: building information modeling, building production, digital transformation, ICT

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Authors: N. Gigauri, V. Kukhalashvili, A. Surmava, L. Intskirveli, L. Gverdtsiteli

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Tbilisi, a large city of the South Caucasus, is a junction point connecting Asia and Europe, Russia and republics of the Asia Minor. Over the last years, its atmosphere has been experienced an increasing anthropogenic load. Numerical modeling method is used for study of Tbilisi atmospheric air pollution. By means of 3D non-linear non-steady numerical model a peculiarity of city atmosphere pollution is investigated during background western light air. Dust concentration spatial and time changes are determined. There are identified the zones of high, average and less pollution, dust accumulation areas, transfer directions etc. By numerical modeling, there is shown that the process of air pollution by the dust proceeds in four stages, and they depend on the intensity of motor traffic, the micro-relief of the city, and the location of city mains. In the interval of time 06:00-09:00 the intensive growth, 09:00-15:00 a constancy or weak decrease, 18:00-21:00 an increase, and from 21:00 to 06:00 a reduction of the dust concentrations take place. The highly polluted areas are located in the vicinity of the city center and at some peripherical territories of the city, where the maximum dust concentration at 9PM is equal to 2 maximum allowable concentrations. The similar investigations conducted in case of various meteorological situations will enable us to compile the map of background urban pollution and to elaborate practical measures for ambient air protection.

Keywords: air pollution, dust, numerical modeling, urban

Procedia PDF Downloads 187

Authors: Strahinja Z. Kovačević, Lidija R. Jevrić, Sanja O. Podunavac Kuzmanović

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The relationship between antibacterial activity of eighteen different substituted benzimidazole derivatives and their molecular characteristics was studied using chemometric QSAR (Quantitative Structure–Activity Relationships) approach. QSAR analysis has been carried out on inhibitory activity towards Staphylococcus aureus, by using molecular descriptors, as well as minimal inhibitory activity (MIC). Molecular descriptors were calculated from the optimized structures. Principal component analysis (PCA) followed by hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) and multiple linear regression (MLR) was performed in order to select molecular descriptors that best describe the antibacterial behavior of the compounds investigated, and to determine the similarities between molecules. The HCA grouped the molecules in separated clusters which have the similar inhibitory activity. PCA showed very similar classification of molecules as the HCA, and displayed which descriptors contribute to that classification. MLR equations, that represent MIC as a function of the in silico molecular descriptors were established. The statistical significance of the estimated models was confirmed by standard statistical measures and cross-validation parameters (SD = 0.0816, F = 46.27, R = 0.9791, R2CV = 0.8266, R2adj = 0.9379, PRESS = 0.1116). These parameters indicate the possibility of application of the established chemometric models in prediction of the antibacterial behaviour of studied derivatives and structurally very similar compounds.

Keywords: antibacterial, benzimidazole, molecular descriptors, QSAR

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Authors: Tomas Linas Šepetys

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In online content-sharing service platforms, the ability of creators to restrict illicit use of audiovisual creative works has effectively been abolished, largely due to specific infrastructure where a huge volume of copyrighted audiovisual content can be made available to the public. The European Union legislator has attempted to strengthen the positions of creators in the realm of online content-sharing services. Article 17 of the new Digital Single Market Directive considers online content-sharing service providers to carry out acts of communication to the public of any creative content uploaded to their platforms by users and posits requirements to obtain licensing agreements. While such regulation intends to assert authors‘ ability to effectively control the dissemination of their creative works, it also creates threats of parody content overblocking through automated content monitoring. Such potentially paradoxical outcome of the efforts of the EU legislator to deliver economic safeguards for the creators in the online content-sharing service platforms leads to presume lack of informity on legislator‘s part regarding creative works‘ economic exploitation opportunities provided to creators in the online content-sharing infrastructure. Analysis conducted in this scientific research discloses that the aforementioned irregularities of parody and other creative content dissemination are caused by EU legislators‘ lack of assessment of value extraction conditions for parody creators in the online content-sharing service platforms. Historical and modeling research method application reveals the existence of two creative content dissemination models and their unique mechanisms of commercial value creation. Obligations to obtain licenses and liability over creative content uploaded to their platforms by users set in Article 17 of the Digital Single Market Directive represent technological replication of the proprietary dissemination model where the creator is able to restrict access to creative content apart from licensed retail channels. The online content-sharing service platforms represent an open dissemination model where the economic potential of creative content is based on the infrastructure of unrestricted access by users and partnership with advertising services offered by the platform. Balanced modeling of proprietary dissemination models in such infrastructure requires not only automated content monitoring measures but also additional regulatory monitoring solutions to separate parody and other types of creative content. An example of the Digital Single Market Directive proves that regulation can dictate not only the technological establishment of a proprietary dissemination model but also a partial reduction of the open dissemination model and cause a disbalance between the economic interests of creators relying on such models. The results of this scientific research conclude an informative role of the creative works dissemination model in the EU copyright law modernization process. A thorough understanding of the commercial prospects of the open dissemination model intrinsic to the online content-sharing service platform structure requires and encourages EU legislators to regulate safeguards for parody content dissemination. Implementing such safeguards would result in a common application of proprietary and open dissemination models in the online content-sharing service platforms and balanced protection of creators‘ economic interests explicitly based on those creative content dissemination models.

Keywords: copyright law, creative works dissemination model, digital single market directive, online content-sharing services

Procedia PDF Downloads 74

Authors: Saji George, Eng Khuan Seng, Christof Luda

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Nanotechnology has been recognized as an important tool for modern agriculture and has the potential to overcome some of the pressing challenges faced by aquaculture industry. A strategy for optimizing nanotechnology-based therapeutic delivery platform for immunizing farmed fish was developed. Accordingly, a compositional library of nanomaterials of natural chemistry (Halloysite (clay), Chitosan, Hydroxyapatite, Mesoporous Silica and a composite material of clay-chitosan) was screened for their toxicity and efficiency in delivering models antigens in cellular and zebrafish embryo models using high throughput screening platforms. Through multi-parametric optimization, chitosan modified halloysite (clay) nanomaterial was identified as an optimal vaccine delivery platform. Further, studies conducted in juvenile seabass showed the potential of clay-chitosan in delivering outer membrane protein of Tenacibaculum maritimum- TIMA (pathogenic bacteria) to and its efficiency in eliciting immune responses in fish. In short, as exemplified by this work, the strategy of using compositional nanomaterial libraries and their biological profiling using high-throughput screening platform could fasten the discovery process of nanomaterials with potential applications in food and agriculture.

Keywords: nanotechnology, fish-vaccine, drug-delivery, halloysite-chitosan

Procedia PDF Downloads 282

Authors: Kwabena Asare, Ezekiel N. N. Nortey, Felix O. Mettle

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Modelling of extreme events has always been of interest in fields such as hydrology and meteorology. However, after the recent global financial crises, appropriate models for modelling of such rare events leading to these crises have become quite essential in the finance and risk management fields. This paper models the extreme values of the Ghana Stock Exchange All-Shares indices (2000-2010) by applying the Extreme Value Theory to fit a model to the tails of the daily stock returns data. A conditional approach of the EVT was preferred and hence an ARMA-GARCH model was fitted to the data to correct for the effects of autocorrelation and conditional heteroscedastic terms present in the returns series, before EVT method was applied. The Peak Over Threshold (POT) approach of the EVT, which fits a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) model to excesses above a certain selected threshold, was employed. Maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters were obtained and the model’s goodness of fit was assessed graphically using Q-Q, P-P and density plots. The findings indicate that the GPD provides an adequate fit to the data of excesses. The size of the extreme daily Ghanaian stock market movements were then computed using the Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) risk measures at some high quantiles, based on the fitted GPD model.

Keywords: extreme value theory, expected shortfall, generalized pareto distribution, peak over threshold, value at risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 557

Authors: Reinhold Kosfeld, Andreas Gohs

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In the reduction of CO₂ emissions, the transition to environmentally friendly transport modes has a high significance. In Germany, the climate protection programme 2030 includes various measures for promoting electromobility. Although electric cars at present hold a market share of just over one percent, its stock more than doubled in the past two years. Special measures like tax incentives and a buyer’s premium have been put in place to promote the shift towards electric cars and boost their diffusion. Knowledge of the future expansion of electric cars is required for planning purposes and adaptation measures. With a view of these objectives, we particularly investigate the effect of spatial spillovers on forecasting performance. For this purpose, time series econometrics and panel econometric models are designed for pure electric cars and hybrid cars for Germany. Regional forecasting models with spatial interactions are consistently estimated by using spatial econometric techniques. Regional data on the stocks of electric cars and their determinants at the district level (NUTS 3 regions) are available from the Federal Motor Transport Authority (Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt) for the period 2017 - 2019. A comparative examination of aggregated regional and national predictions provides quantitative information on accuracy gains by allowing for spatial spillovers in forecasting electric mobility.

Keywords: electric mobility, forecasting market diffusion, regional panel data model, spatial interaction

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Authors: ِAbdallah A. A. Shaheen

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Gaza Strip faces economic and political issues such as conflict, siege and urbanization; all these have led to an increase in the air pollution over Gaza Strip. In this study, Particulate matter 10 (PM10) concentration over Gaza Strip has been estimated by Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) and Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) data, based on a multispectral algorithm. Simultaneously, in-situ measurements for the corresponding particulate are acquired for selected time period. Landsat and ground data for eleven years are used to develop the algorithm while four years data (2002, 2006, 2010 and 2014) have been used to validate the results of algorithm. The developed algorithm gives highest regression, R coefficient value i.e. 0.86; RMSE value as 9.71 µg/m³; P values as 0. Average validation of algorithm show that calculated PM10 strongly correlates with measured PM10, indicating high efficiency of algorithm for the mapping of PM10 concentration during the years 2000 to 2014. Overall results show increase in minimum, maximum and average yearly PM10 concentrations, also presents similar trend over urban area. The rate of urbanization has been evaluated by supervised classification of the Landsat image. Urban sprawl from year 2000 to 2014 results in a high concentration of PM10 in the study area.

Keywords: PM10, landsat, atmospheric reflectance, Gaza strip, urbanization

Procedia PDF Downloads 255