Search results for: parametric survival models

Authors: Smail Tigani, Mohamed Ouzzif

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This work presents a discrete quantitative state prediction algorithm with intelligent behavior making it able to self-improve some performance aspects. The specificity of this algorithm is the capacity of self-rectification of the prediction strategy before the final decision. The auto-rectification mechanism is based on two parallel mathematical models. In one hand, the algorithm predicts the next state based on event transition matrix updated after each observation. In the other hand, the algorithm extracts its residues trend with a linear regression representing historical residues data-points in order to rectify the first decision if needs. For a normal distribution, the interactivity between the two models allows the algorithm to self-optimize its performance and then make better prediction. Designed key performance indicator, computed during a Monte Carlo simulation, shows the advantages of the proposed approach compared with traditional one.

Keywords: discrete state, Markov Chains, linear regression, auto-adaptive systems, decision making, Monte Carlo Simulation

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Authors: R. Mohan, V. Jadhav, A. Ahmed, J. Rivas, A. Kelkar

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Cementitious materials are an excellent example of a composite material with complex hierarchical features and random features that range from nanometer (nm) to millimeter (mm) scale. Multi-scale modeling of complex material systems requires starting from fundamental building blocks to capture the scale relevant features through associated computational models. In this paper, molecular dynamics (MD) modeling is employed to predict the effect of plasticizer additive on the mechanical properties of key hydrated cement constituent calcium-silicate-hydrate (CSH) at the molecular, nanometer scale level. Due to complexity, still unknown molecular configuration of CSH, a representative configuration widely accepted in the field of mineral Jennite is employed. The effectiveness of the Molecular Dynamics modeling to understand the predictive influence of material chemistry changes based on molecular/nanoscale models is demonstrated.

Keywords: cement composite, mechanical properties, molecular dynamics, plasticizer additives

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Authors: Wajih Abbassi, Zouhaier Ben Khelifa

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The present research points towards the empirical validation of three options valuation models, the ad-hoc Black-Scholes model as proposed by Berkowitz (2001), the constant elasticity of variance model of Cox and Ross (1976) and the Kou jump-diffusion model (2002). Our empirical analysis has been conducted on a sample of 26,974 options written on three indexes, the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and the Russell 2000 that were negotiated during the year 2007 just before the sub-prime crisis. We start by presenting the theoretical foundations of the models of interest. Then we use the technique of trust-region-reflective algorithm to estimate the structural parameters of these models from cross-section of option prices. The empirical analysis shows the superiority of the Kou jump-diffusion model. This superiority arises from the ability of this model to portray the behavior of market participants and to be closest to the true distribution that characterizes the evolution of these indices. Indeed the double-exponential distribution covers three interesting properties that are: the leptokurtic feature, the memory less property and the psychological aspect of market participants. Numerous empirical studies have shown that markets tend to have both overreaction and under reaction over good and bad news respectively. Despite of these advantages there are not many empirical studies based on this model partly because probability distribution and option valuation formula are rather complicated. This paper is the first to have used the technique of nonlinear curve-fitting through the trust-region-reflective algorithm and cross-section options to estimate the structural parameters of the Kou jump-diffusion model.

Keywords: jump-diffusion process, Kou model, Leptokurtic feature, trust-region-reflective algorithm, US index options

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Authors: Belkacem Laimouche

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With the field of artificial intelligence (AI) experiencing exponential growth, fueled by technological advancements that pave the way for increasingly innovative and promising applications, there is an escalating need to develop rigorous methods for assessing their performance in pursuit of transparency and equity. This article proposes a metrology-inspired statistical framework for evaluating bias and explainability in AI systems. Drawing from the principles of metrology, we propose a pioneering approach, using a concrete example, to evaluate the accuracy and precision of AI models, as well as to quantify the sources of measurement uncertainty that can lead to bias in their predictions. Furthermore, we explore a statistical approach for evaluating the explainability of AI systems based on their ability to provide interpretable and transparent explanations of their predictions.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, metrology, measurement uncertainty, prediction error, bias, machine learning algorithms, probabilistic models, interlaboratory comparison, data analysis, data reliability, measurement of bias impact on predictions, improvement of model accuracy and reliability

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Authors: Ayman Mutahar Alrassas, Shaoran Ren, Renyuan Ren, Hung Vo Thanh, Mohammed Hail Hakimi, Zhenliang Guan

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The significant effect of CO₂ on global climate and the environment has gained more concern worldwide. Enhance oil recovery (EOR) associated with sequestration of CO₂ particularly into the depleted oil reservoir is considered the viable approach under financial limitations since it improves the oil recovery from the existing oil reservoir and boosts the relation between global-scale of CO₂ capture and geological sequestration. Consequently, practical measurements are required to attain large-scale CO₂ emission reduction. This paper presents an integrated modeling workflow to construct an accurate 3D reservoir geological model to estimate the storage capacity of CO₂ under geological uncertainty in an unconventional oil reservoir of the Paleogene Shahejie Formation (Es1) in the block Nv32, Shenvsi oilfield, China. In this regard, geophysical data, including well logs of twenty-two well locations and seismic data, were combined with geological and engineering data and used to construct a 3D reservoir geological modeling. The geological modeling focused on four tight reservoir units of the Shahejie Formation (Es1-x1, Es1-x2, Es1-x3, and Es1-x4). The validated 3D reservoir models were subsequently used to calculate the theoretical CO₂ storage capacity in the block Nv32, Shenvsi oilfield. Well logs were utilized to predict petrophysical properties such as porosity and permeability, and lithofacies and indicate that the Es1 reservoir units are mainly sandstone, shale, and limestone with a proportion of 38.09%, 32.42%, and 29.49, respectively. Well log-based petrophysical results also show that the Es1 reservoir units generally exhibit 2–36% porosity, 0.017 mD to 974.8 mD permeability, and moderate to good net to gross ratios. These estimated values of porosity, permeability, lithofacies, and net to gross were up-scaled and distributed laterally using Sequential Gaussian Simulation (SGS) and Simulation Sequential Indicator (SIS) methods to generate 3D reservoir geological models. The reservoir geological models show there are lateral heterogeneities of the reservoir properties and lithofacies, and the best reservoir rocks exist in the Es1-x4, Es1-x3, and Es1-x2 units, respectively. In addition, the reservoir volumetric of the Es1 units in block Nv32 was also estimated based on the petrophysical property models and fund to be between 0.554368

Keywords: CO₂ storage capacity, 3D geological model, geological uncertainty, unconventional oil reservoir, block Nv32

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Authors: Deniz Dincel, Sena Ardicli, Hale Samli, Mustafa Ogan, Faruk Balci

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The aim of the study was to determine the effects of some environmental and genetic factors on growth, fertility traits, milk yield and composition in Saanen goats. For this purpose, the total of 173 Saanen goats and kids were investigated for growth, fertility and milk traits in Marmara Region of Turkey. Fertility parameters (n=70) were evaluated during two years. Milk samples were collected during the lactation and the milk yield/components (n=59) of each goat were calculated. In terms of CSN3 and AGPAT6 gene; the genotypes were defined by PCR-RFLP. Saanen kids (n=86-112) were measured from birth to 6 months of life. The birth, weaning, 60ᵗʰ, 90ᵗʰ, 120ᵗʰ and 180tᵗʰ days of average live weights were calculated. The effects of maternal age on pregnancy rate (p < 0.05), birth rate (p < 0.05), infertility rate (p < 0.05), single born kidding (p < 0.001), twinning rate (p < 0.05), triplet rate (p < 0.05), survival rate of kids until weaning (p < 0.05), number of kids per parturition (p < 0.01) and number of kids per mating (p < 0.01) were found significant. The impacts of year on birth rate (p < 0.05), abortion rate (p < 0.001), single born kidding (p < 0.01), survival rate of kids until weaning (p < 0.01), number of kids per mating (p < 0.01) were found significant for fertility traits. The impacts of lactation length on all milk yield parameters (lactation milk, protein, fat, totally solid, solid not fat, casein and lactose yield) (p < 0.001) were found significant. The effects of age on all milk yield parameters (lactation milk, protein, fat, total solid, solid not fat, casein and lactose yield) (p < 0.001), protein rate (p < 0.05), fat rate (p < 0.05), total solid rate (p < 0.01), solid not fat rate (p < 0.05), casein rate (p < 0.05) and lactation length (p < 0.01), were found significant too. However, the effect of AGPAT6 gene on milk yield and composition was not found significant in Saanen goats. The herd was found monomorphic (FF) for CSN3 gene. The effects of sex on live weights until 90ᵗʰ days of life (birth, weaning and 60ᵗʰ day of average weight) were found significant statistically (p < 0.001). The maternal age affected only birth weight (p < 0,001). The effects month at birth on all of the investigated day [the birth, 120ᵗʰ, 180ᵗʰ days (p < 0.05); the weaning, 60ᵗʰ, 90ᵗʰ days (p < 0,001)] were found significant. The birth type was found significant on the birth (p < 0,001), weaning (p < 0,01), 60ᵗʰ (p < 0,01) and 90ᵗʰ (p < 0,01) days of average live weights. As a result, screening the other regions of CSN3, AGPAT6 gene and also investigation the phenotypic association of them should be useful to clarify the efficiency of target genes. Environmental factors such as maternal age, year, sex and birth type were found significant on some growth, fertility and milk traits in Saanen goats. So consideration of these factors could be used as selection criteria in dairy goat breeding.

Keywords: fertility, growth, milk yield, Saanen goats

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Authors: Surbhi Rani, Sunita Gakkhar

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The four-dimensional food web system consisting of two prey species for a generalist middle predator and a top predator is proposed and investigated. The middle predator is predating both the prey species with a modified Holling type-II functional response. The food web model is found to be well-posed, bounded, and dissipative. The proposed model's essential dynamical features are studied in terms of local stability. The four species' survival is explored, and persistence conditions are established. The numerical simulations reveal the persistence in the form of a chaotic attractor or stable focus. The conclusion is that providing additional food to the middle predator may help to control the food chain's chaos.

Keywords: predator-prey model, existence of equilibrium points, local stability, chaos, numerical simulations

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Authors: Shu-Hsi Ho

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The problems of aging and number of widowed peers gradually rise in Taiwan. It is worth to concern the related issues for elderly after the death of a spouse. Hence, this study is to examine the impact of spousal death on the surviving spouse’s self-perceived health and mental health for the elderly in Taiwan. A cross section data design and ordered logistic regression models are applied to investigate whether marriage is associated significantly to self-perceived health and mental health for the widowed older Taiwanese. The results indicate that widowed marriage shows significant negative effects on self-perceived health and mental health regardless of widows or widowers. Among them, widows might be more likely to show worse mental health than widowers. The belief confirms that marriage provides effective sources to promote self-perceived health and mental health, particularly for females. In addition, since the social welfare system is not perfect in Taiwan, the findings also suggest that family and social support reveal strongly association with the self-perceived health and mental health for the widows and widowers elderly.

Keywords: logistic regression models, self-perceived health, widow, widower

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Authors: Debarag Banerjee, Pooja Singh, Arjun Avadhanam, Saksham Srivastava

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Autonomous conversational agents, i.e., chatbots, are becoming an increasingly common mechanism for enterprises to provide support to customers and partners. In order to rate chatbots, especially ones powered by Generative AI tools like Large Language Models (LLMs), we need to be able to accurately assess their performance. This is where chatbot benchmarking becomes important. In this paper, authors propose the use of a benchmark that they call the E2E (End to End) benchmark and show how the E2E benchmark can be used to evaluate the accuracy and usefulness of the answers provided by chatbots, especially ones powered by LLMs. The authors evaluate an example chatbot at different levels of sophistication based on both our E2E benchmark as well as other available metrics commonly used in the state of the art and observe that the proposed benchmark shows better results compared to others. In addition, while some metrics proved to be unpredictable, the metric associated with the E2E benchmark, which uses cosine similarity, performed well in evaluating chatbots. The performance of our best models shows that there are several benefits of using the cosine similarity score as a metric in the E2E benchmark.

Keywords: chatbot benchmarking, end-to-end (E2E) benchmarking, large language model, user centric evaluation.

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Authors: Ahmed Borg, Elsa Aristodemou, Attia Attia

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Well control involves managing the circulating drilling fluid within the wells and avoiding kicks and blowouts as these can lead to losses in human life and drilling facilities. Current practices for good control incorporate predictions of pressure losses through computational models. Developing a realistic hydraulic model for a good control problem is a very complicated process due to the existence of a complex multiphase region, which usually contains a non-Newtonian drilling fluid and the miscibility of formation gas in drilling fluid. The current approaches assume an inaccurate flow fluid model within the well, which leads to incorrect pressure loss calculations. To overcome this problem, researchers have been considering the more complex two-phase fluid flow models. However, even these more sophisticated two-phase models are unsuitable for applications where pressure dynamics are important, such as in managed pressure drilling. This study aims to develop and implement new fluid flow models that take into consideration the miscibility of fluids as well as their non-Newtonian properties for enabling realistic kick treatment. furthermore, a corresponding numerical solution method is built with an enriched data bank. The research work considers and implements models that take into consideration the effect of two phases in kick treatment for well control in conventional drilling. In this work, a corresponding numerical solution method is built with an enriched data bank. Software STARCCM+ for the computational studies to study the important parameters to describe wellbore multiphase flow, the mass flow rate, volumetric fraction, and velocity of each phase. Results showed that based on the analysis of these simulation studies, a coarser full-scale model of the wellbore, including chemical modeling established. The focus of the investigations was put on the near drill bit section. This inflow area shows certain characteristics that are dominated by the inflow conditions of the gas as well as by the configuration of the mud stream entering the annulus. Without considering the gas solubility effect, the bottom hole pressure could be underestimated by 4.2%, while the bottom hole temperature is overestimated by 3.2%. and without considering the heat transfer effect, the bottom hole pressure could be overestimated by 11.4% under steady flow conditions. Besides, larger reservoir pressure leads to a larger gas fraction in the wellbore. However, reservoir pressure has a minor effect on the steady wellbore temperature. Also as choke pressure increases, less gas will exist in the annulus in the form of free gas.

Keywords: multiphase flow, well- control, STARCCM+, petroleum engineering and gas technology, computational fluid dynamic

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Authors: Shuyuan Lin, Zhaohui Huang, Mizi Fan

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In the majority of previous research into modelling large scale composite floor subjected to fire, the beam-to-column and beam-to-beam connections were assumed to behave either as pinned or rigid for simplicity, and the vertical shear and axial tension failures of the connection were not taken into account. We have recently developed robust two-noded connection models for modeling endplate and partial endplate steel connections under fire conditions. The main objective of this research is to systematically investigate the impact of the connections of protected beams, on the tensile membrane actions of supported floor slabs in which the failures of the connections, such as, axial tension, vertical shear and bending are accounted for. The models developed have very good numerical stability under a static solver condition, and can be used for large scale modelling of composite buildings in fire.

Keywords: fire, steel structure, component-based model, beam-to-column connections

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Authors: Nisful Laila, Fatin Fadhilah Hasib, Puji Sucia Sukmaningrum, Achsania Hendratmi

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The purpose of this study is to determine and comparing the level of efficiency of Islamic Banks in Indonesia and United Kingdom during eurozone sovereign debt crisis. This study using a quantitative non-parametric approach with Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) VRS assumption, and a statistical tool Mann-Whitney U-Test. The samples are 11 Islamic Banks in Indonesia and 4 Islamic Banks in England. This research used mediating approach. Input variable consists of total deposit, asset, and the cost of labour. Output variable consists of financing and profit/loss. This study shows that the efficiency of Islamic Bank in Indonesia and United Kingdom are varied and fluctuated during the observation period. There is no significant different the efficiency performance of Islamic Banks in Indonesia and United Kingdom.

Keywords: data envelopment analysis, efficiency, eurozone crisis, islamic bank

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Authors: Raghad A. Altowairgi

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With the wide spread of social media platforms, young people tend to use them extensively as the first means of communication due to their ease and modernity. But these platforms often create a fertile ground for bullies to practice their aggressive behavior against their victims. Platform usage cannot be reduced, but intelligent mechanisms can be implemented to reduce the abuse. This is where machine learning comes in. Understanding and classifying text can be helpful in order to minimize the act of cyberbullying. Artificial intelligence techniques have expanded to formulate an applied tool to address the phenomenon of cyberbullying. In this research, machine learning models are built to classify text into two classes; cyberbullying and non-cyberbullying. After preprocessing the data in 4 stages; removing characters that do not provide meaningful information to the models, tokenization, removing stop words, and lowering text. BoW and TF-IDF are used as the main features for the five classifiers, which are; logistic regression, Naïve Bayes, Random Forest, XGboost, and Catboost classifiers. Each of them scores 92%, 90%, 92%, 91%, 86% respectively.

Keywords: cyberbullying, machine learning, Bag-of-Words, term frequency-inverse document frequency, natural language processing, Catboost

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Authors: Raksit Nanthatanti, Jarruwat Charoensuk, S. Hirai, Manop Masomtop

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In this study, the effect of channel geometry and operating circumstances on a liquid cooling plate for Lithium-ion Battery modules has been investigated Inlet temperature, water velocity, and channel count were the main factors. According to the passage, enhancing the number of cooling channels[2,3,4,6channelperbases] will affect water flow distribution caused by varying the velocity inlet inside the cooling block[0.5,1.0,1.5,2.0 m/sec] and intake temperatures[25,30,35,40oC], The findings indicate that the battery’s temperature drops as the number of channels increases. The maximum battery's operating temperature [45 oC] rises, but ∆t is needed to be less than 5 oC [v≤1m/sec]. Maximum temperature and local temperature difference of the battery change significantly with the change of the velocity inlet in the cooling channel and its thermal conductivity. The results of the simulation will help to increase cooling efficiency on the cooling system for Li-ion Battery based on a Mini channel in a liquid-cooling configuration

Keywords: cooling efficiency, channel count, lithium-ion battery, operating

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Authors: Ho Jeong Jin, Chang Won Seo, Choon Sik Cho, Bong Yong Choi, Kwang Kyun Na, Sang Rok Lee

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In this paper, a radar signal processing technique using the LFM-FSK (Linear Frequency Modulation-Frequency Shift Keying) is proposed for reducing the false alarm rate based on the compressive sensing. The LFM-FSK method combines FMCW (Frequency Modulation Continuous Wave) signal with FSK (Frequency Shift Keying). This shows an advantage which can suppress the ghost phenomenon without the complicated CFAR (Constant False Alarm Rate) algorithm. Moreover, the parametric sparse algorithm applying the compressive sensing that restores signals efficiently with respect to the incomplete data samples is also integrated, leading to reducing the burden of ADC in the receiver of radars. 24 GHz FMCW signal is applied and tested in the real environment with FSK modulated data for verifying the proposed algorithm along with the compressive sensing.

Keywords: compressive sensing, LFM-FSK radar, radar signal processing, sparse algorithm

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Authors: E. H. Walsh, J. McMahon, M. P. Herring

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Post-primary school-based suicide prevention (PSSP) is a valuable avenue to reduce suicidal behaviours in adolescents. The aims of this meta-analysis and meta-regression were 1) to quantify the effect of PSSP interventions on adolescent suicide ideation (SI) and suicide attempts (SA), and 2) to explore how intervention effects may vary based on important contextual and intervention factors. This study provides further support to the benefits of PSSP by demonstrating lower suicide outcomes in over 30,000 adolescents following PSSP and mental health interventions and tentatively suggests that intervention effectiveness may potentially vary based on intervention factors. The protocol for this study is registered on PROSPERO (ID=CRD42020168883). Population, intervention, comparison, outcomes, and study design (PICOs) defined eligible studies as cluster randomised studies (n=12) containing PSSP and measuring suicide outcomes. Aggregate electronic database EBSCO host, Web of Science, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials databases were searched. Cochrane bias tools for cluster randomised studies demonstrated that half of the studies were rated as low risk of bias. The Egger’s Regression Test adapted for multi-level modelling indicated that publication bias was not an issue (all ps > .05). Crude and corresponding adjusted pooled log odds ratios (OR) were computed using the Metafor package in R, yielding 12 SA and 19 SI effects. Multi-level random-effects models accounting for dependencies of effects from the same study revealed that in crude models, compared to controls, interventions were significantly associated with 13% (OR=0.87, 95% confidence interval (CI), [0.78,0.96], Q18 =15.41, p=0.63) and 34% (OR=0.66, 95%CI [0.47,0.91], Q10=16.31, p=0.13) lower odds of SI and SA, respectively. Adjusted models showed similar odds reductions of 15% (OR=0.85, 95%CI[0.75,0.95], Q18=10.04, p=0.93) and 28% (OR=0.72, 95%CI[0.59,0.87], Q10=10.46, p=0.49) for SI and SA, respectively. Within-cluster heterogeneity ranged from no heterogeneity to low heterogeneity for SA across crude and adjusted models (0-9%). No heterogeneity was identified for SI across crude and adjusted models (0%). Pre-specified univariate moderator analyses were not significant for SA (all ps < 0.05). Variations in average pooled SA odds reductions across categories of various intervention characteristics were observed (all ps < 0.05), which preliminarily suggests that the effectiveness of interventions may potentially vary across intervention factors. These findings have practical implications for researchers, clinicians, educators, and decision-makers. Further investigation of important logical, theoretical, and empirical moderators on PSSP intervention effectiveness is recommended to establish how and when PSSP interventions best reduce adolescent suicidal behaviour.

Keywords: adolescents, contextual factors, post-primary school-based suicide prevention, suicide ideation, suicide attempts

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Authors: G.Venkatachalam, Gautham Shankar, Dasarath Raghav, Krishna Kuar, Santhosh Kiran, Bhargav Mahesh

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Uncertainty in the availability of fossil fuels in the future and global warming increased the need for more environment-friendly materials. In this work, an attempt is made to fabricate a hybrid polymer matrix composite. The blend is a mixture of General Purpose Resin and Cashew Nut Shell Liquid, a natural resin extracted from cashew plant. Palm fiber, which has high strength, is used as a reinforcement material. The fiber is treated with alkali (NaOH) solution to increase its strength and adhesiveness. Parametric study of flexure strength is carried out by varying alkali concentration, duration of alkali treatment and fiber volume. Taguchi L9 Orthogonal array is followed in the design of experiments procedure for simplification. With the help of ANOVA technique, regression equations are obtained which gives the level of influence of each parameter on the flexure strength of the composite.

Keywords: Adhesion, CNSL, Flexural Analysis, Hybrid Matrix Composite, Palm Fiber

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Authors: Henri Champliaud, Zhengkun Feng, Ngan Van Lê, Javad Gholipour

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In this article, a method is presented to effectively estimate the deformed shape of a thick plate due to line heating. The method uses a fifth order spline interpolation, with up to C3 continuity at specific points to compute the shape of the deformed geometry. First and second order derivatives over a surface are the resulting parameters of a given heating line on a plate. These parameters are determined through experiments and/or finite element simulations. Very accurate kriging models are fitted to real or virtual surfaces to build-up a database of maps. Maps of first and second order derivatives are then applied on numerical plate models to evaluate their evolving shapes through a sequence of heating lines. Adding an optimization process to this approach would allow determining the trajectories of heating lines needed to shape complex geometries, such as Francis turbine blades.

Keywords: deformation, kriging, fifth order spline interpolation, first, second and third order derivatives, C3 continuity, line heating, plate forming, thermal forming

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Authors: Muluegziabher Semagne Mekonnen

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This study was intended to show the irrigation water requirements and evaluation of canal hydraulics steady state conditions to improve on scheme performance of the Meki-Ziway irrigation project. The methodology used was the CROPWAT 8.0 model to estimate the irrigation water requirements of five major crops irrigated in the study area. The results showed that for the whole existing and potential irrigation development area of 2000 ha and 2599 ha, crop water requirements were 3,339,200 and 4,339,090.4 m³, respectively. Hydraulic simulation models are fundamental tools for understanding the hydraulic flow characteristics of irrigation systems. Hydraulic simulation models are fundamental tools for understanding the hydraulic flow characteristics of irrigation systems. In this study Hydraulic Analysis of Irrigation Canals Using HEC-RAS Model was conducted in Meki-Ziway Irrigation Scheme. The HEC-RAS model was tested in terms of error estimation and used to determine canal capacity potential.

Keywords: HEC-RAS, irrigation, hydraulic. canal reach, capacity

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Authors: Marco Avila Lopez, Hasnae Ait-Douchi, Silvia De Los Santos, Badr Eddine Lebrouhi, Pamela Ramírez Vidal

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In the context of the energy transition, fuel cell technology has emerged as a solution for harnessing hydrogen energy and mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. An in-depth study was conducted on a PEMFC-type fuel cell, with an initiation of an analysis of its operational principles and constituent components. Subsequently, the modelling of the fuel cell was undertaken using the Python programming language, encompassing both steady-state and transient regimes. In the case of the steady-state regime, the physical and electrochemical phenomena occurring within the fuel cell were modelled, with the assumption of uniform temperature throughout all cell compartments. Parametric identification was carried out, resulting in a remarkable mean error of only 1.62% when the model results were compared to experimental data documented in the literature. The dynamic model that was developed enabled the scrutiny of the fuel cell's response in terms of temperature and voltage under varying current conditions.

Keywords: fuel cell, modelling, dynamic, thermal model, PEMFC

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Authors: Inna Kornienko, Svetlana Guryeva, Natalia Danilova, Elena Petersen

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Drug toxicity often goes undetected until clinical trials, the most expensive and dangerous phase of drug development. Both human cell culture and animal studies have limitations that cannot be overcome by improvements in drug testing protocols. Tissue engineering is an emerging alternative approach to creating models of human malignant tumors for experimental oncology, personalized medicine, and drug discovery studies. This new generation of bioengineered tumors provides an opportunity to control and explore the role of every component of the model system including cell populations, supportive scaffolds, and signaling molecules. An area that could greatly benefit from these models is cancer research. Recent advances in tissue engineering demonstrated that decellularized tissue is an excellent scaffold for tissue engineering. Decellularization of donor organs such as heart, liver, and lung can provide an acellular, naturally occurring three-dimensional biologic scaffold material that can then be seeded with selected cell populations. Preliminary studies in animal models have provided encouraging results for the proof of concept. Decellularized Organs preserve organ microenvironment, which is critical for cancer metastasis. Utilizing 3D tumor models results greater proximity of cell culture morphological characteristics in a model to its in vivo counterpart, allows more accurate simulation of the processes within a functioning tumor and its pathogenesis. 3D models allow study of migration processes and cell proliferation with higher reliability as well. Moreover, cancer cells in a 3D model bear closer resemblance to living conditions in terms of gene expression, cell surface receptor expression, and signaling. 2D cell monolayers do not provide the geometrical and mechanical cues of tissues in vivo and are, therefore, not suitable to accurately predict the responses of living organisms. 3D models can provide several levels of complexity from simple monocultures of cancer cell lines in liquid environment comprised of oxygen and nutrient gradients and cell-cell interaction to more advanced models, which include co-culturing with other cell types, such as endothelial and immune cells. Following this reasoning, spheroids cultivated from one or multiple patient-derived cell lines can be utilized to seed the matrix rather than monolayer cells. This approach furthers the progress towards personalized medicine. As an initial step to create a new ex vivo tissue engineered model of a cancer tumor, optimized protocols have been designed to obtain organ-specific acellular matrices and evaluate their potential as tissue engineered scaffolds for cultures of normal and tumor cells. Decellularized biomatrix was prepared from animals’ kidneys, urethra, lungs, heart, and liver by two decellularization methods: perfusion in a bioreactor system and immersion-agitation on an orbital shaker with the use of various detergents (SDS, Triton X-100) in different concentrations and freezing. Acellular scaffolds and tissue engineered constructs have been characterized and compared using morphological methods. Models using decellularized matrix have certain advantages, such as maintaining native extracellular matrix properties and biomimetic microenvironment for cancer cells; compatibility with multiple cell types for cell culture and drug screening; utilization to culture patient-derived cells in vitro to evaluate different anticancer therapeutics for developing personalized medicines.

Keywords: 3D models, decellularization, drug discovery, drug toxicity, scaffolds, spheroids, tissue engineering

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Authors: Obaid Algahtani

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An interval may be defined as a convex combination as follows: I=[a,b]={x_α=(1-α)a+αb: α∈[0,1]}. Consequently, we may adopt interval operations by applying the scalar operation point-wise to the corresponding interval points: I ∙J={x_α∙y_α ∶ αϵ[0,1],x_α ϵI ,y_α ϵJ}, With the usual restriction 0∉J if ∙ = ÷. These operations are associative: I+( J+K)=(I+J)+ K, I*( J*K)=( I*J )* K. These two properties, which are missing in the usual interval operations, will enable the extension of the usual linear system concepts to the interval setting in a seamless manner. The arithmetic introduced here avoids such vague terms as ”interval extension”, ”inclusion function”, determinants which we encounter in the engineering literature that deal with interval linear systems. On the other hand, these definitions were motivated by our attempt to arrive at a definition of interval random variables and investigate the corresponding statistical properties. We feel that they are the natural ones to handle interval systems. We will enable the extension of many results from usual state space models to interval state space models. The interval state space model we will consider here is one of the form X_((t+1) )=AX_t+ W_t, Y_t=HX_t+ V_t, t≥0, where A∈ 〖IR〗^(k×k), H ∈ 〖IR〗^(p×k) are interval matrices and 〖W 〗_t ∈ 〖IR〗^k,V_t ∈〖IR〗^p are zero – mean Gaussian white-noise interval processes. This feeling is reassured by the numerical results we obtained in a simulation examples.

Keywords: interval analysis, interval matrices, state space model, Kalman Filter

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Authors: Christina Wainikka, Besrat Tesfaye

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Several of the countries in the Baltic Sea region are ranked high in international innovations rankings, such as the Global Innovation Index and European Innovation Scoreboard. There are however some concerns in the performance of different countries. For example, there is a widely spread notion about “The Swedish Paradox”. Sweden is ranked high due to investments in R&D and patent activity, but the outcome is not as high as could be expected. SMEs in Sweden are also below EU average when it comes to registering intellectual property rights such as patents and trademarks. This study is concentrating on the protection of utility model. This intellectual property right does not exist in Sweden, but in for example Finland and Germany. The utility model protection is sometimes referred to as a “patent light” since it is easier to obtain than the patent protection but at the same time does cover technical solutions. In examining statistics on patent activities and activities in registering utility models it is clear that utility model protection is scarcely used in the countries that have the protection. In Germany 10 577 applications were made in 2021. In Finland there were 259 applications made in 2021. This can be compared with patent applications that were 58 568 in Germany in 2021 and 1 662 in Finland in 2021. In Sweden there has never been a protection for utility models. The only protection for technical solutions is patents and business secrets. The threshold for obtaining a patent is high, due to the legal requirements and the costs. The patent protection is there for often not chosen by SMEs in Sweden. This study examines whether the protection of utility models in other countries in the Baltic region provide SMEs in these countries with better options to protect their innovations. The legal methodology is comparative law. In order to study the effects of the legal differences statistics are examined and interviews done with SMEs from different industries.

Keywords: baltic sea region, comparative law, SME, utility model

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Authors: T. Gayen

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Although, there are several software reliability models existing today there does not exist any versatile model even today which can be used for the reliability assessment of software. Complex software has a large number of states (unlike the hardware) so it becomes practically difficult to completely test the software. Irrespective of the amount of testing one does, sometimes it becomes extremely difficult to assure that the final software product is fault free. The Black Box Software Reliability models are found be quite uncertain for the reliability assessment of various systems. As mission critical applications need to be highly reliable and since it is not always possible to ensure the development of highly reliable system. Hence, in order to achieve fault-free operation of software one develops some mechanism to handle faults remaining in the system even after the development. Although, several such techniques are currently in use to achieve fault tolerance, yet these mechanisms may not always be very suitable for various systems. Hence, this discussion is focused on analyzing the issues and challenges faced with the existing techniques for reliability assessment and fault tolerance of various software systems.

Keywords: black box, fault tolerance, failure, software reliability

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Authors: M. Dinesh, V. Kenny Mark, Dharni Vasudhevan Venkatesan, B. Santhosh Kumar, R. Sree Radesh, V. R. Sanal Kumar

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Comprehensive numerical studies have been carried out to examine the best aerodynamic performance of subsonic aircraft at different winglet cant angles using a validated 3D k-ω SST model. In the parametric analytical studies, NACA series of airfoils are selected. Basic design of the winglet is selected from the literature and flow features of the entire wing including the winglet tip effects have been examined with different cant angles varying from 150 to 600 at different angles of attack up to 140. We have observed, among the cases considered in this study that a case with 150 cant angle the aerodynamics performance of the subsonic aircraft during takeoff was found better up to an angle of attack of 2.80 and further its performance got diminished at higher angles of attack. Analyses further revealed that increasing the winglet cant angle from 150 to 600 at higher angles of attack could negate the performance deterioration and additionally it could enhance the peak CL/CD on the order of 3.5%. The investigated concept of variable-cant-angle winglets appears to be a promising alternative for improving the aerodynamic efficiency of aircraft.

Keywords: aerodynamic efficiency, cant angle, drag reduction, flexible winglets

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Authors: Dmitriy Babenko, Sergey Yegorov, Ilya Korshukov, Aidana Sultanbekova, Valentina Barkhanskaya, Tatiana Bashirova, Yerzhan Zhunusov, Yevgeniya Li, Viktoriya Parakhina, Svetlana Kolesnichenko, Yeldar Baiken, Aruzhan Pralieva, Zhibek Zhumadilova, Matthew S. Miller, Gonzalo H. Hortelano, Anar Turmuhambetova, Antonella E. Chesca, Irina Kadyrova

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Introduction: The rapidly evolving COVID-19 pandemic, along with the re-emergence of pathogens causing acute respiratory infections (ARI), has necessitated the development of novel diagnostic tools to differentiate various causes of ARI. MALDI-MS, due to its wide usage and affordability, has been proposed as a potential instrument for diagnosing SARS-CoV-2 versus non-SARS-CoV-2 ARI. The aim of this study was to investigate the potential of MALDI-MS in conjunction with a machine learning model to accurately distinguish between symptomatic infections caused by SARS-CoV-2 and non-SARS-CoV-2 during both the early and later phases of the pandemic. Furthermore, this study aimed to analyze mass spectrometry (MS) data obtained from nasal swabs of healthy individuals. Methods: We gathered mass spectra from 252 samples, comprising 108 SARS-CoV-2-positive samples obtained in 2020 (Covid 2020), 7 SARS-CoV- 2-positive samples obtained in 2023 (Covid 2023), 71 samples from symptomatic individuals without SARS-CoV-2 (Control non-Covid ARVI), and 66 samples from healthy individuals (Control healthy). All the samples were subjected to RT-PCR testing. For data analysis, we employed the caret R package to train and test seven machine-learning algorithms: C5.0, KNN, NB, RF, SVM-L, SVM-R, and XGBoost. We conducted a training process using a five-fold (outer) nested repeated (five times) ten-fold (inner) cross-validation with a randomized stratified splitting approach. Results: In this study, we utilized the Covid 2020 dataset as a case group and the non-Covid ARVI dataset as a control group to train and test various machine learning (ML) models. Among these models, XGBoost and SVM-R demonstrated the highest performance, with accuracy values of 0.97 [0.93, 0.97] and 0.95 [0.95; 0.97], specificity values of 0.86 [0.71; 0.93] and 0.86 [0.79; 0.87], and sensitivity values of 0.984 [0.984; 1.000] and 1.000 [0.968; 1.000], respectively. When examining the Covid 2023 dataset, the Naive Bayes model achieved the highest classification accuracy of 43%, while XGBoost and SVM-R achieved accuracies of 14%. For the healthy control dataset, the accuracy of the models ranged from 0.27 [0.24; 0.32] for k-nearest neighbors to 0.44 [0.41; 0.45] for the Support Vector Machine with a radial basis function kernel. Conclusion: Therefore, ML models trained on MALDI MS of nasopharyngeal swabs obtained from patients with Covid during the initial phase of the pandemic, as well as symptomatic non-Covid individuals, showed excellent classification performance, which aligns with the results of previous studies. However, when applied to swabs from healthy individuals and a limited sample of patients with Covid in the late phase of the pandemic, ML models exhibited lower classification accuracy.

Keywords: SARS-CoV-2, MALDI-TOF MS, ML models, nasopharyngeal swabs, classification

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Authors: Marina Fomina

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The paper focuses on the category of semantic subject within the framework of a functional approach to linguistics. The semantic subject is related to similar notions such as the grammatical subject and the bearer of predicative feature. It is the multifaceted nature of the category of subject that 1) triggers a number of issues that, syntax-wise, remain to be dealt with (cf. semantic vs. syntactic functions / sentence parts vs. parts of speech issues, etc.); 2) results in a variety of approaches to the category of subject, such as formal grammatical, semantic/syntactic (functional), communicative approaches, etc. Many linguists consider the prototypical approach to the category of subject to be the most instrumental as it reveals the integrity of denotative and linguistic components of the conceptual category. This approach relates to subject as a source of non-passive predicative feature, an element of subject-predicate-object situation that can take on a variety of semantic roles, cf.: 1) an agent (He carefully surveyed the valley stretching before him), 2) an experiencer (I feel very bitter about this), 3) a recipient (I received this book as a gift), 4) a causee (The plane broke into three pieces), 5) a patient (This stove cleans easily), etc. It is believed that the variety of roles stems from the radial (prototypical) structure of the category with some members more central than others. Translation-wise, the most “treacherous” subject types are the peripheral ones. The paper 1) features a peripheral status of spatial impersonal sentence models such as U menia v ukhe zvenit (lit. I-Gen. in ear buzzes) within the category of semantic subject, 2) makes a structural and semantic analysis of the models, 3) focuses on their Russian-English translation patterns, 4) reveals non-prototypical features of subjects in the English equivalents.

Keywords: bearer of predicative feature, grammatical subject, impersonal sentence model, semantic subject

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Authors: Sasitharan Ambicapathy, J. Vignesh, P. Sivaraj, Godfrey Derek Sams, K. Sabarinath, V. R. Sanal Kumar

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The external flow simulation of a flying car at take off phase is a daunting task owing to the fact that the prediction of the transient unsteady flow features during its deployment phase is very complex. In this paper 3D numerical simulations of external flow of Ferrari F430 proposed flying car with different NACA 9618 rectangular wings have been carried. Additionally, the aerodynamics characteristics have been generated for optimizing its geometry for achieving the minimum take off velocity with better overall performance in both road and air. The three-dimensional standard k-omega turbulence model has been used for capturing the intrinsic flow physics during the take off phase. In the numerical study, a fully implicit finite volume scheme of the compressible, Reynolds-Averaged, Navier-Stokes equations is employed. Through the detailed parametric analytical studies we have conjectured that Ferrari F430 flying car facilitated with high wings having three different deployment histories during the take off phase is the best choice for accomplishing its better performance for the commercial applications.

Keywords: aerodynamics of flying car, air taxi, negative lift, roadable airplane

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Authors: Matan Cohen, Maxim Shoshany

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Climatic, topographic and geological diversity, together with frequent disturbance and recovery cycles, produce highly complex spatial patterns of trees, shrubs, dwarf shrubs and bare ground patches. Assessment of spatial and temporal variations of these life-forms patterns under climate change is of high ecological priority. Here we report on one of the first attempts to discriminate between images of three Mediterranean life-forms patterns at three densities. The development of an extensive database of orthophoto images representing these 9 pattern categories was instrumental for training and testing pre-trained and newly-trained DL models utilizing DenseNet architecture. Both models demonstrated the advantages of using Deep Learning approaches over existing spectral and spatial (pattern or texture) algorithmic methods in differentiation 9 life-form spatial mixtures categories.

Keywords: texture classification, deep learning, desert fringe ecosystems, climate change

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Authors: Rutej R. Mehta, Michael A. Chappell

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Introduction: Arterial spin labelling (ASL) is an increasingly popular perfusion MRI technique, in which arterial blood water is magnetically labelled in the neck before flowing into the brain, providing a non-invasive measure of cerebral blood flow (CBF). The accuracy of ASL CBF measurements, however, is hampered by dispersion effects; the distortion of the ASL labelled bolus during its transit through the vasculature. In spite of this, the current recommended implementation of ASL – the white paper (Alsop et al., MRM, 73.1 (2015): 102-116) – does not account for dispersion, which leads to the introduction of errors in CBF. Given that the transport time from the labelling region to the tissue – the arterial transit time (ATT) – depends on the region of the brain and the condition of the patient, it is likely that these errors will also vary with the ATT. In this study, various dispersion models are assessed in comparison with the white paper (WP) formula for CBF quantification, enabling the errors introduced by the WP to be quantified. Additionally, this study examines the relationship between the errors associated with the WP and the ATT – and how this is influenced by dispersion. Methods: Data were simulated using the standard model for pseudo-continuous ASL, along with various dispersion models, and then quantified using the formula in the WP. The ATT was varied from 0.5s-1.3s, and the errors associated with noise artefacts were computed in order to define the concept of significant error. The instantaneous slope of the error was also computed as an indicator of the sensitivity of the error with fluctuations in ATT. Finally, a regression analysis was performed to obtain the mean error against ATT. Results: An error of 20.9% was found to be comparable to that introduced by typical measurement noise. The WP formula was shown to introduce errors exceeding 20.9% for ATTs beyond 1.25s even when dispersion effects were ignored. Using a Gaussian dispersion model, a mean error of 16% was introduced by using the WP, and a dispersion threshold of σ=0.6 was determined, beyond which the error was found to increase considerably with ATT. The mean error ranged from 44.5% to 73.5% when other physiologically plausible dispersion models were implemented, and the instantaneous slope varied from 35 to 75 as dispersion levels were varied. Conclusion: It has been shown that the WP quantification formula holds only within an ATT window of 0.5 to 1.25s, and that this window gets narrower as dispersion occurs. Provided that the dispersion levels fall below the threshold evaluated in this study, however, the WP can measure CBF with reasonable accuracy if dispersion is correctly modelled by the Gaussian model. However, substantial errors were observed with other common models for dispersion with dispersion levels similar to those that have been observed in literature.

Keywords: arterial spin labelling, dispersion, MRI, perfusion

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