Search results for: load and price uncertainties
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 4135

Search results for: load and price uncertainties

2365 Supplier Risk Management: A Multivariate Statistical Modelling and Portfolio Optimization Based Approach for Supplier Delivery Performance Development

Authors: Jiahui Yang, John Quigley, Lesley Walls

Abstract:

In this paper, the authors develop a stochastic model regarding the investment in supplier delivery performance development from a buyer’s perspective. The authors propose a multivariate model through a Multinomial-Dirichlet distribution within an Empirical Bayesian inference framework, representing both the epistemic and aleatory uncertainties in deliveries. A closed form solution is obtained and the lower and upper bound for both optimal investment level and expected profit under uncertainty are derived. The theoretical properties provide decision makers with useful insights regarding supplier delivery performance improvement problems where multiple delivery statuses are involved. The authors also extend the model from a single supplier investment into a supplier portfolio, using a Lagrangian method to obtain a theoretical expression for an optimal investment level and overall expected profit. The model enables a buyer to know how the marginal expected profit/investment level of each supplier changes with respect to the budget and which supplier should be invested in when additional budget is available. An application of this model is illustrated in a simulation study. Overall, the main contribution of this study is to provide an optimal investment decision making framework for supplier development, taking into account multiple delivery statuses as well as multiple projects.

Keywords: decision making, empirical bayesian, portfolio optimization, supplier development, supply chain management

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2364 Best Responses for the Dynamic Model of Hotel Room Rate

Authors: Xuan Tran

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to present a comprehensive dynamic model for pricing strategies in the hotel competition to find a win-win situation for the competitive set. By utilizing the Cobb-Douglas utility model, the study establishes room rates by analyzing the price elasticity of demand across a competitive set of four hotels, with a focus on occupancy rates. To further enhance the analysis, game theory is applied to identify the best response for each competitive party, which illustrates the optimal pricing strategy for each hotel in the competitive landscape. This approach offers valuable insights into how hotels can strategically adjust their room rates in response to market conditions and competitor actions. The primary contributions of this research include as follows: (1) advantages for both individual hotels and the broader competitive hotel market, (2) benefits for hotel management overseeing multiple brands, and (3) positive impacts on the local community.

Keywords: dynamic model, game theory, best response, Cobb-Douglas

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2363 Measurement of Project Success in Construction Using Performance Indices

Authors: Annette Joseph

Abstract:

Background: The construction industry is dynamic in nature owing to the increasing uncertainties in technology, budgets, and development processes making projects more complex. Thus, predicting project performance and chances of its likely success has become difficult. The goal of all parties involved in construction projects is to successfully complete it on schedule, within planned budget and with the highest quality and in the safest manner. However, the concept of project success has remained ambiguously defined in the mind of the construction professionals. Purpose: This paper aims to study the analysis of a project in terms of its performance and measure the success. Methodology: The parameters for evaluating project success and the indices to measure success/performance of a project are identified through literature study. Through questionnaire surveys aimed at the stakeholders in the projects, data is collected from two live case studies (an ongoing and completed project) on the overall performance in terms of its success/failure. Finally, with the help of SPSS tool, the data collected from the surveys are analyzed and applied on the selected performance indices. Findings: The score calculated by using the indices and models helps in assessing the overall performance of the project and interpreting it to find out whether the project will be a success or failure. This study acts as a reference for firms to carry out performance evaluation and success measurement on a regular basis helping projects to identify the areas which are performing well and those that require improvement. Originality & Value: The study signifies that by measuring project performance; a project’s deviation towards success/failure can be assessed thus helping in suggesting early remedial measures to bring it on track ensuring that a project will be completed successfully.

Keywords: project, performance, indices, success

Procedia PDF Downloads 191
2362 Three-dimensional Steady Flow in Thin Annular Pools of Silicon Melt under a Magnetic Field

Authors: Brahim Mahfoud

Abstract:

A three-dimensional (3D) numerical technique is used to investigate the possibility of reducing the price of manufacturing some silicon-based devices, particularly those in which minor temperature gradients can significantly reduce performance. The silicon melt under the magnetic field produces Lorentz force, which can effectively suppress the flow which is caused by temperature gradients. This might allow some silicon-based products, such as solar cells, to be manufactured using a less pure, and hence less expensive. The thermocapillary effect of the silicon melt flow in thin annular pools subjected to an externally induced magnetic field was observed. The results reveal that with a strong enough magnetic field, isothermal lines change form and become concentric circles. As the amplitude of the magnetic field (Ha) grows, the azimuthal velocity and temperature at the free surface reduce, and the asymmetric 3D flow becomes axisymmetric steady when Ha surpasses a threshold value.

Keywords: magnetic field, manufacturing, silicon melt, thermocapillary

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2361 The Customer Satisfaction of Convenience Stores in the Municipality Northern Part of Thailand

Authors: Sivilai Jayankura

Abstract:

The objective is to study the behaviors, lifestyles and consumption of the student of Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University. This paper is survey research by using a questionnaire to collect the data with students of Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University for 385 sampling, random coincidence sampling has been provide. Data analysis by descriptive statistics include the distribution, frequency, percentage, average, and standard deviation. The result found that the majority of students are female, and spend their time with their own ideas, like socializing with friends and shopping at the shopping mall, see the movie at the theaters and at the night time will enjoy with their mobile phone and found they long for the quality-price and also brand name regarding the dress. The media and promotion is a key factor impact to the decision to purchase the product and service with mobile phones will be good business to expand business channel also.

Keywords: consumption of teenager, internet, lifestyle behavior, Suan Sunundha Rajabhat University

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2360 The Study of Information Uses Behaviour of Tourists in Songkhla Province, Thailand

Authors: Patraporn Kaewkhanitarak, Suchada Srichuar, Narawat Kanjanapan

Abstract:

This research is the survey research. The purpose of this research is to study information uses behavior and problem of tourists in Songkhla Province. The tool used in this study include structure questioner standardize in 5 levels rating scale. The 400 participants selected by convenience sampling (allowable error 5%) by Taro Yamane method. The collecting data period is 6 months from January-June 2014. The result of this study found that the type of information that the tourists often use to plan their trip is internet (x̅ = 3.81) and the most popular text is restaurant (x̅ = 3.77). The tourists found that booking or buying service from internet provided more affordable price and they could select appropriate plan by themselves. The most convenience source of information that the tourists often use is internet and website (x̅ = 3.69). Nevertheless, they explained that most of tourist information source in Songkhla province are lack and insufficient of tourist organization that provide information and service related to tourism.

Keywords: information, behavior, tourists, Thailand

Procedia PDF Downloads 253
2359 Effect of Out-Of-Plane Deformation on Relaxation Method of Stress Concentration in a Plate with a Circular Hole

Authors: Shingo Murakami, Shinichi Enoki

Abstract:

In structures, stress concentration is a factor of fatigue fracture. Basically, the stress concentration is a phenomenon that should be avoided. However, it is difficult to avoid the stress concentration. Therefore, relaxation of the stress concentration is important. The stress concentration arises from notches and circular holes. There is a relaxation method that a composite patch covers a notch and a circular hole. This relaxation method is used to repair aerial wings, but it is not systematized. Composites are more expensive than single materials. Accordingly, we propose the relaxation method that a single material patch covers a notch and a circular hole, and aim to systematize this relaxation method. We performed FEA (Finite Element Analysis) about an object by using a three-dimensional FEA model. The object was that a patch adheres to a plate with a circular hole. And, a uniaxial tensile load acts on the patched plate with a circular hole. In the three-dimensional FEA model, it is not easy to model the adhesion layer. Basically, the yield stress of the adhesive is smaller than that of adherents. Accordingly, the adhesion layer gets to plastic deformation earlier than the adherents under the yield load of adherents. Therefore, we propose the three-dimensional FEA model which is applied a nonlinear elastic region to the adhesion layer. The nonlinear elastic region was calculated by a bilinear approximation. We compared the analysis results with the tensile test results to confirm whether the analysis model has usefulness. As a result, the analysis results agreed with the tensile test results. And, we confirmed that the analysis model has usefulness. As a result that the three-dimensional FEA model was used to the analysis, it was confirmed that an out-of-plane deformation occurred to the patched plate with a circular hole. The out-of-plane deformation causes stress increase of the patched plate with a circular hole. Therefore, we investigated that the out-of-plane deformation affects relaxation of the stress concentration in the plate with a circular hole on this relaxation method. As a result, it was confirmed that the out-of-plane deformation inhibits relaxation of the stress concentration on the plate with a circular hole.

Keywords: stress concentration, patch, out-of-plane deformation, Finite Element Analysis

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2358 Effect of Pressure and Glue Spread on the Bonding Properties of CLT Panels Made from Low-Grade Hardwood

Authors: Sumanta Das, Miroslav Gašparík, Tomáš Kytka, Anil Kumar Sethy

Abstract:

In this modern century, Cross-laminated timber (CLT) evolved as an excellent material for building and high load-bearing structural applications worldwide. CLT is produced mainly from softwoods such as Norway spruce, White fir, Scots pine, European larch, Douglas fir, and Swiss stone pine. The use of hardwoods in CLT production is still at an early stage, and the utilization of hardwoods is expected to provide the opportunity for obtaining higher bending stiffness and shear resistance to CLT panels. In load-bearing structures like CLT, bonding is an important character that is needed to evaluate. One particular issue with using hardwood lumber in CLT panels is that it is often more challenging to achieve a strong, durable adhesive bond. Several researches in the past years have already evaluated the bonding properties of CLT panels from hardwood both from higher and lower densities. This research aims to identify the effect of pressure and glue spread and evaluate which poplar lumber characteristics affect adhesive bond quality. Three-layered CLT panels were prepared from poplar wood with one-component polyurethane (PUR) adhesive by applying pressure of 0.6 N/mm2 and 1 N/mm2 with a glue spread rate of 160 and 180 g/m2. The delamination and block shear tests were carried out as per EN 16351:2015, and the wood failure percentage was also evaluated. The results revealed that glue spread rate and applied pressure significantly influenced both the shear bond strength and wood failure percentage of the CLT. However, samples with lower pressure 0.6 N/mm2 and less glue spread rate showed delamination, and in samples with higher pressure 1 N/mm2 and higher glue spread rate, no delamination was observed. All the properties determined by this study met the minimum requirement mentioned in EN 16351:2015 standard.

Keywords: cross-laminated timber, delamination, glue spread rate, poplar, pressure, PUR, shear strength, wood failure percentage

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2357 Phytoremediation of Cr from Tannery Effluent by Vetiver Grass

Authors: Mingizem Gashaw Seid

Abstract:

Phytoremediation of chromium metal by vetiver grass was investigated in hydroponic system. The removal efficiency for organic load, nutrient and chromium were evaluated as a function of concentration of waste effluent (40 and 50% dilution with distilled water). Under this conditions 64.49-94.06 % of chromium was removed. This shows vetiver grass has potential for accumulation of chromium metal from tannery waste water stream.

Keywords: chromium, phytoremediation, tannery effluent, vetiver grass

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2356 Numerical Methods versus Bjerksund and Stensland Approximations for American Options Pricing

Authors: Marasovic Branka, Aljinovic Zdravka, Poklepovic Tea

Abstract:

Numerical methods like binomial and trinomial trees and finite difference methods can be used to price a wide range of options contracts for which there are no known analytical solutions. American options are the most famous of that kind of options. Besides numerical methods, American options can be valued with the approximation formulas, like Bjerksund-Stensland formulas from 1993 and 2002. When the value of American option is approximated by Bjerksund-Stensland formulas, the computer time spent to carry out that calculation is very short. The computer time spent using numerical methods can vary from less than one second to several minutes or even hours. However to be able to conduct a comparative analysis of numerical methods and Bjerksund-Stensland formulas, we will limit computer calculation time of numerical method to less than one second. Therefore, we ask the question: Which method will be most accurate at nearly the same computer calculation time?

Keywords: Bjerksund and Stensland approximations, computational analysis, finance, options pricing, numerical methods

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2355 Load Comparison between Different Positions during Elite Male Basketball Games: A Sport Metabolomics Approach

Authors: Kayvan Khoramipour, Abbas Ali Gaeini, Elham Shirzad, Øyvind Sandbakk

Abstract:

Basketball has different positions with individual movement profiles, which may influence metabolic demands. Accordingly, the present study aimed to compare the movement and metabolic load between different positions during elite male basketball games. Five main players of 14 teams (n = 70), who participated in the 2017-18 Iranian national basketball leagues, were selected as participants. The players were defined as backcourt (Posts 1-3) and frontcourt (Posts 4-5). Video based time motion analysis (VBTMA) was performed based on players’ individual running and shuffling speed using Dartfish software. Movements were classified into high and low intensity running with and without having the ball, as well as high and low-intensity shuffling and static movements. Mean frequency, duration, and distance were calculated for each class, except for static movements where only frequency was calculated. Saliva samples were collected from each player before and after 40-minute basketball games and analyzed using metabolomics. Principal component analysis (PCA) and Partial least square discriminant analysis (PLSDA) (for metabolomics data) and independent T-tests (for VBTMA) were used as statistical tests. Movement frequency, duration, and distance were higher in backcourt players (all p ≤ 0.05), while static movement frequency did not differ. Saliva samples showed that the levels of Taurine, Succinic acid, Citric acid, Pyruvate, Glycerol, Acetoacetic acid, Acetone, and Hypoxanthine were all higher in backcourt players, whereas Lactate, Alanine, 3-Metyl Histidine, and Methionine were higher in frontcourt players Based on metabolomics, we demonstrate that backcourt and frontcourt players have different metabolic profiles during games, where backcourt players move clearly more during games and therefore rely more on aerobic energy, whereas frontcourt players rely more on anaerobic energy systems in line with less dynamic but more static movement patterns.

Keywords: basketball, metabolomics, saliva, sport loadomics

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2354 Pattern and Clinical Profile of Children and Adolescent Visiting Psychiatry Out Patient Department of Tertiary Health Center Amidst COVID Pandemic- a Cross Sectional Study

Authors: Poornima Khadanga, Gaurav Pawar, Madhavi Rairikar

Abstract:

Background: The COVID 19 pandemic, with its unparalleled mental health repercussions, has impacted people globally and has catalyzed a Mental Health pandemic among the youth. The detrimental effects on mental health needs to be pondered at the earliest. Aims: To study the behavioral problems among children and adolescents visiting Psychiatry Outpatient Department Tertiary Health Care during COVID pandemic and its correlation with socio-demographic profiles. Methods: A cross sectional study was conducted by interviewing 120 participants between 4 to 17 years of age and their parents, visiting Psychiatry OPD. Behavioral problems were assessed using the Strength and Difficulties Questionnaire and diagnosed by DSM-5. Statistical analysis was done by SPSS-21. Results: Male participants showed significant association with conduct (t=2.36, p=0.02) and hyperactive problems (t=5.07, p<0.05). Increase in screen time showed a positive correlation with conduct problems (r=0.22. p=0.02). Attention Deficit Hyperkinetic Disorder (18.3%) was the most commonly diagnosed psychiatric illness. Total difficulty score was significantly associated with difficult temperament (F=68.69, p<0.05). Conclusion: The study brings to light the pattern of behavioral problems that emerged during recent times of uncertainties among the young ones, including those with special needs. The increase in disruptive behaviors with increase screen time needs to be addressed at the earliest.

Keywords: behavioral problems, pandemic, screen time, temperament

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2353 Measuring Banking Risk

Authors: Mike Tsionas

Abstract:

The paper develops new indices of financial stability based on an explicit model of expected utility maximization by financial institutions subject to the classical technology restrictions of neoclassical production theory. The model can be estimated using standard econometric techniques, like GMM for dynamic panel data and latent factor analysis for the estimation of co-variance matrices. An explicit functional form for the utility function is not needed and we show how measures of risk aversion and prudence (downside risk aversion) can be derived and estimated from the model. The model is estimated using data for Eurozone countries and we focus particularly on (i) the use of the modeling approach as an “early warning mechanism”, (ii) the bank- and country-specific estimates of risk aversion and prudence (downside risk aversion), and (iii) the derivation of a generalized measure of risk that relies on loan-price uncertainty.

Keywords: financial stability, banking, expected utility maximization, sub-prime crisis, financial crisis, eurozone, PIIGS

Procedia PDF Downloads 349
2352 Simulation of Glass Breakage Using Voronoi Random Field Tessellations

Authors: Michael A. Kraus, Navid Pourmoghaddam, Martin Botz, Jens Schneider, Geralt Siebert

Abstract:

Fragmentation analysis of tempered glass gives insight into the quality of the tempering process and defines a certain degree of safety as well. Different standard such as the European EN 12150-1 or the American ASTM C 1048/CPSC 16 CFR 1201 define a minimum number of fragments required for soda-lime safety glass on the basis of fragmentation test results for classification. This work presents an approach for the glass breakage pattern prediction using a Voronoi Tesselation over Random Fields. The random Voronoi tessellation is trained with and validated against data from several breakage patterns. The fragments in observation areas of 50 mm x 50 mm were used for training and validation. All glass specimen used in this study were commercially available soda-lime glasses at three different thicknesses levels of 4 mm, 8 mm and 12 mm. The results of this work form a Bayesian framework for the training and prediction of breakage patterns of tempered soda-lime glass using a Voronoi Random Field Tesselation. Uncertainties occurring in this process can be well quantified, and several statistical measures of the pattern can be preservation with this method. Within this work it was found, that different Random Fields as basis for the Voronoi Tesselation lead to differently well fitted statistical properties of the glass breakage patterns. As the methodology is derived and kept general, the framework could be also applied to other random tesselations and crack pattern modelling purposes.

Keywords: glass breakage predicition, Voronoi Random Field Tessellation, fragmentation analysis, Bayesian parameter identification

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2351 Optimization of the Jatropha curcas Supply Chain as a Criteria for the Implementation of Future Collection Points in Rural Areas of Manabi-Ecuador

Authors: Boris G. German, Edward Jiménez, Sebastián Espinoza, Andrés G. Chico, Ricardo A. Narváez

Abstract:

The unique flora and fauna of The Galapagos Islands has leveraged a tourism-driven growth in the islands. Nonetheless, such development is energy-intensive and requires thousands of gallons of diesel each year for thermoelectric electricity generation. The needed transport of fossil fuels from the continent has generated oil spillages and affectations to the fragile ecosystem of the islands. The Zero Fossil Fuels initiative for The Galapagos proposed by the Ecuadorian government as an alternative to reduce the use of fossil fuels in the islands, considers the replacement of diesel in thermoelectric generators, by Jatropha curcas vegetable oil. However, the Jatropha oil supply cannot entirely cover yet the demand for electricity generation in Galapagos. Within this context, the present work aims to provide an optimization model that can be used as a selection criterion for approving new Jatropha Curcas collection points in rural areas of Manabi-Ecuador. For this purpose, existing Jatropha collection points in Manabi were grouped under three regions: north (7 collection points), center (4 collection points) and south (9 collection points). Field work was carried out in every region in order to characterize the collection points, to establish local Jatropha supply and to determine transportation costs. Data collection was complemented using GIS software and an objective function was defined in order to determine the profit associated to Jatropha oil production. The market price of both Jatropha oil and residual cake, were considered for the total revenue; whereas Jatropha price, transportation and oil extraction costs were considered for the total cost. The tonnes of Jatropha fruit and seed, transported from collection points to the extraction plant, were considered as variables. The maximum and minimum amount of the collected Jatropha from each region constrained the optimization problem. The supply chain was optimized using linear programming in order to maximize the profits. Finally, a sensitivity analysis was performed in order to find a profit-based criterion for the acceptance of future collection points in Manabi. The maximum profit reached a value of $ 4,616.93 per year, which represented a total Jatropha collection of 62.3 tonnes Jatropha per year. The northern region of Manabi had the biggest collection share (69%), followed by the southern region (17%). The criteria for accepting new Jatropha collection points in the rural areas of Manabi can be defined by the current maximum profit of the zone and by the variation in the profit when collection points are removed one at a time. The definition of new feasible collection points plays a key role in the supply chain associated to Jatropha oil production. Therefore, a mathematical model that assists decision makers in establishing new collection points while assuring profitability, contributes to guarantee a continued Jatropha oil supply for Galapagos and a sustained economic growth in the rural areas of Ecuador.

Keywords: collection points, Jatropha curcas, linear programming, supply chain

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2350 Development of a System for Fitting Clothes and Accessories Using Augmented Reality

Authors: Dinmukhamed T., Vassiliy S.

Abstract:

This article suggests the idea of fitting clothes and accessories based on augmented reality. A logical data model has been developed, taking into account the decision-making module (colors, style, type, material, popularity, etc.) based on personal data (age, gender, weight, height, leg size, hoist length, geolocation, photogrammetry, number of purchases of certain types of clothing, etc.) and statistical data of the purchase history (number of items, price, size, color, style, etc.). Also, in order to provide information to the user, it is planned to develop an augmented reality system using a QR code. This system of selection and fitting of clothing and accessories based on augmented reality will be used in stores to reduce the time for the buyer to make a decision on the choice of clothes.

Keywords: augmented reality, online store, decision-making module, like QR code, clothing store, queue

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2349 Performance Analysis of Three Absorption Heat Pump Cycles, Full and Partial Loads Operations

Authors: B. Dehghan, T. Toppi, M. Aprile, M. Motta

Abstract:

The environmental concerns related to global warming and ozone layer depletion along with the growing worldwide demand for heating and cooling have brought an increasing attention toward ecological and efficient Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems. Furthermore, since space heating accounts for a considerable part of the European primary/final energy use, it has been identified as one of the sectors with the most challenging targets in energy use reduction. Heat pumps are commonly considered as a technology able to contribute to the achievement of the targets. Current research focuses on the full load operation and seasonal performance assessment of three gas-driven absorption heat pump cycles. To do this, investigations of the gas-driven air-source ammonia-water absorption heat pump systems for small-scale space heating applications are presented. For each of the presented cycles, both full-load under various temperature conditions and seasonal performances are predicted by means of numerical simulations. It has been considered that small capacity appliances are usually equipped with fixed geometry restrictors, meaning that the solution mass flow rate is driven by the pressure difference across the associated restrictor valve. Results show that gas utilization efficiency (GUE) of the cycles varies between 1.2 and 1.7 for both full and partial loads and vapor exchange (VX) cycle is found to achieve the highest efficiency. It is noticed that, for typical space heating applications, heat pumps operate over a wide range of capacities and thermal lifts. Thus, partially, the novelty introduced in the paper is the investigation based on a seasonal performance approach, following the method prescribed in a recent European standard (EN 12309). The overall result is a modest variation in the seasonal performance for analyzed cycles, from 1.427 (single-effect) to 1.493 (vapor-exchange).

Keywords: absorption cycles, gas utilization efficiency, heat pump, seasonal performance, vapor exchange cycle

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2348 Optimizing Human Diet Problem Using Linear Programming Approach: A Case Study

Authors: P. Priyanka, S. Shruthi, N. Guruprasad

Abstract:

Health is a common theme in most cultures. In fact all communities have their concepts of health, as part of their culture. Health continues to be a neglected entity. Planning of Human diet should be done very careful by selecting the food items or groups of food items also the composition involved. Low price and good taste of foods are regarded as two major factors for optimal human nutrition. Linear programming techniques have been extensively used for human diet formulation for quiet good number of years. Through the process, we mainly apply “The Simplex Method” which is a very useful statistical tool based on the theorem of Elementary Row Operation from Linear Algebra and also incorporate some other necessary rules set by the Simplex Method to help solve the problem. The study done by us is an attempt to develop a programming model for optimal planning and best use of nutrient ingredients.

Keywords: diet formulation, linear programming, nutrient ingredients, optimization, simplex method

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2347 Combination of Geological, Geophysical and Reservoir Engineering Analyses in Field Development: A Case Study

Authors: Atif Zafar, Fan Haijun

Abstract:

A sequence of different Reservoir Engineering methods and tools in reservoir characterization and field development are presented in this paper. The real data of Jin Gas Field of L-Basin of Pakistan is used. The basic concept behind this work is to enlighten the importance of well test analysis in a broader way (i.e. reservoir characterization and field development) unlike to just determine the permeability and skin parameters. Normally in the case of reservoir characterization we rely on well test analysis to some extent but for field development plan, the well test analysis has become a forgotten tool specifically for locations of new development wells. This paper describes the successful implementation of well test analysis in Jin Gas Field where the main uncertainties are identified during initial stage of field development when location of new development well was marked only on the basis of G&G (Geologic and Geophysical) data. The seismic interpretation could not encounter one of the boundary (fault, sub-seismic fault, heterogeneity) near the main and only producing well of Jin Gas Field whereas the results of the model from the well test analysis played a very crucial rule in order to propose the location of second well of the newly discovered field. The results from different methods of well test analysis of Jin Gas Field are also integrated with and supported by other tools of Reservoir Engineering i.e. Material Balance Method and Volumetric Method. In this way, a comprehensive way out and algorithm is obtained in order to integrate the well test analyses with Geological and Geophysical analyses for reservoir characterization and field development. On the strong basis of this working and algorithm, it was successfully evaluated that the proposed location of new development well was not justified and it must be somewhere else except South direction.

Keywords: field development plan, reservoir characterization, reservoir engineering, well test analysis

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2346 Nonparametric Specification Testing for the Drift of the Short Rate Diffusion Process Using a Panel of Yields

Authors: John Knight, Fuchun Li, Yan Xu

Abstract:

Based on a new method of the nonparametric estimator of the drift function, we propose a consistent test for the parametric specification of the drift function in the short rate diffusion process using observations from a panel of yields. The test statistic is shown to follow an asymptotic normal distribution under the null hypothesis that the parametric drift function is correctly specified, and converges to infinity under the alternative. Taking the daily 7-day European rates as a proxy of the short rate, we use our test to examine whether the drift of the short rate diffusion process is linear or nonlinear, which is an unresolved important issue in the short rate modeling literature. The testing results indicate that none of the drift functions in this literature adequately captures the dynamics of the drift, but nonlinear specification performs better than the linear specification.

Keywords: diffusion process, nonparametric estimation, derivative security price, drift function and volatility function

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2345 Investigation of Aerodynamic and Design Features of Twisting Tall Buildings

Authors: Sinan Bilgen, Bekir Ozer Ay, Nilay Sezer Uzol

Abstract:

After decades of conventional shapes, irregular forms with complex geometries are getting more popular for form generation of tall buildings all over the world. This trend has recently brought out diverse building forms such as twisting tall buildings. This study investigates both the aerodynamic and design features of twisting tall buildings through comparative analyses. Since twisting a tall building give rise to additional complexities related with the form and structural system, lateral load effects become of greater importance on these buildings. The aim of this study is to analyze the inherent characteristics of these iconic forms by comparing the wind loads on twisting tall buildings with those on their prismatic twins. Through a case study research, aerodynamic analyses of an existing twisting tall building and its prismatic counterpart were performed and the results have been compared. The prismatic twin of the original building were generated by removing the progressive rotation of its floors with the same plan area and story height. Performance-based measures under investigation have been evaluated in conjunction with the architectural design. Aerodynamic effects have been analyzed by both wind tunnel tests and computational methods. High frequency base balance tests and pressure measurements on 3D models were performed to evaluate wind load effects on a global and local scale. Comparisons of flat and real surface models were conducted to further evaluate the effects of the twisting form without façade texture contribution. Comparisons highlighted that, the twisting form under investigation shows better aerodynamic behavior both for along wind but particularly for across wind direction. Compared to the prismatic counterpart; twisting model is superior on reducing vortex-shedding dynamic response by disorganizing the wind vortices. Consequently, despite the difficulties arisen from inherent complexity of twisted forms, they could still be feasible and viable with their attractive images in the realm of tall buildings.

Keywords: aerodynamic tests, motivation for twisting, tall buildings, twisted forms, wind excitation

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2344 Distraction from Pain: An fMRI Study on the Role of Age-Related Changes in Executive Functions

Authors: Katharina M. Rischer, Angelika Dierolf, Ana M. Gonzalez-Roldan, Pedro Montoya, Fernand Anton, Marian van der Meulen

Abstract:

Even though age has been associated with increased and prolonged episodes of pain, little is known about potential age-related changes in the ˈtop-downˈ modulation of pain, such as cognitive distraction from pain. The analgesic effects of distraction result from competition for attentional resources in the prefrontal cortex (PFC), a region that is also involved in executive functions. Given that the PFC shows pronounced age-related atrophy, distraction may be less effective in reducing pain in older compared to younger adults. The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of aging on task-related analgesia and the underpinning neural mechanisms, with a focus on the role of executive functions in distraction from pain. In a first session, 64 participants (32 young adults: 26.69 ± 4.14 years; 32 older adults: 68.28 ± 7.00 years) completed a battery of neuropsychological tests. In a second session, participants underwent a pain distraction paradigm, while fMRI images were acquired. In this paradigm, participants completed a low (0-back) and a high (2-back) load condition of a working memory task while receiving either warm or painful thermal stimuli to their lower arm. To control for age-related differences in sensitivity to pain and perceived task difficulty, stimulus intensity, and task speed were individually calibrated. Results indicate that both age groups showed significantly reduced activity in a network of regions involved in pain processing when completing the high load distraction task; however, young adults showed a larger neural distraction effect in different parts of the insula and the thalamus. Moreover, better executive functions, in particular inhibitory control abilities, were associated with a larger behavioral and neural distraction effect. These findings clearly demonstrate that top-down control of pain is affected in older age, and could explain the higher vulnerability for older adults to develop chronic pain. Moreover, our findings suggest that the assessment of executive functions may be a useful tool for predicting the efficacy of cognitive pain modulation strategies in older adults.

Keywords: executive functions, cognitive pain modulation, fMRI, PFC

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2343 Estimation of Geotechnical Parameters by Comparing Monitoring Data with Numerical Results: Case Study of Arash–Esfandiar-Niayesh Under-Passing Tunnel, Africa Tunnel, Tehran, Iran

Authors: Aliakbar Golshani, Seyyed Mehdi Poorhashemi, Mahsa Gharizadeh

Abstract:

The under passing tunnels are strongly influenced by the soils around. There are some complexities in the specification of real soil behavior, owing to the fact that lots of uncertainties exist in soil properties, and additionally, inappropriate soil constitutive models. Such mentioned factors may cause incompatible settlements in numerical analysis with the obtained values in actual construction. This paper aims to report a case study on a specific tunnel constructed by NATM. The tunnel has a depth of 11.4 m, height of 12.2 m, and width of 14.4 m with 2.5 lanes. The numerical modeling was based on a 2D finite element program. The soil material behavior was modeled by hardening soil model. According to the field observations, the numerical estimated settlement at the ground surface was approximately four times more than the measured one, after the entire installation of the initial lining, indicating that some unknown factors affect the values. Consequently, the geotechnical parameters are accurately revised by a numerical back-analysis using laboratory and field test data and based on the obtained monitoring data. The obtained result confirms that typically, the soil parameters are conservatively low-estimated. And additionally, the constitutive models cannot be applied properly for all soil conditions.

Keywords: NATM tunnel, initial lining, laboratory test data, numerical back-analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 361
2342 Factors Affecting Consumers’ Willingness to Pay for Chicken Meat from Biosecure Farms

Authors: Veronica Sri Lestari, Asmuddin Natsir, Hasmida Karim, Ian Patrick

Abstract:

The research aimed at investigating the factors affecting consumers’ willingness to pay for chicken meat from biosecure farms. The research was conducted in Makassar City, South Sulawesi Province, Indonesia. Samples were taken using random sampling technique in two supermarkets namely Lotte Mart and Gelael. Total samples were 50 respondents which comprised the chicken meat consumers. To find out the consumers’ willingness to pay for chicken meat from the biosecure farms, the contingent valuation method was utilized. Data were collected through interviews and questionnaires. Probit Logistic was estimated to examine the factors affecting the consumers’ willingness to pay for at the premium price for chicken meat from the biosecure farms. The research indicates that the education and income affect significantly the consumers’ willingness to pay for chicken meat from the biosecure farms (P < 0.05). The results of the study will be beneficial for the policy makers, producers, consumers and those conducting research.

Keywords: biosecure, chicken, farms, consumer, willingness-to-pay

Procedia PDF Downloads 274
2341 Neural Graph Matching for Modification Similarity Applied to Electronic Document Comparison

Authors: Po-Fang Hsu, Chiching Wei

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a novel neural graph matching approach applied to document comparison. Document comparison is a common task in the legal and financial industries. In some cases, the most important differences may be the addition or omission of words, sentences, clauses, or paragraphs. However, it is a challenging task without recording or tracing the whole edited process. Under many temporal uncertainties, we explore the potentiality of our approach to proximate the accurate comparison to make sure which element blocks have a relation of edition with others. In the beginning, we apply a document layout analysis that combines traditional and modern technics to segment layouts in blocks of various types appropriately. Then we transform this issue into a problem of layout graph matching with textual awareness. Regarding graph matching, it is a long-studied problem with a broad range of applications. However, different from previous works focusing on visual images or structural layout, we also bring textual features into our model for adapting this domain. Specifically, based on the electronic document, we introduce an encoder to deal with the visual presentation decoding from PDF. Additionally, because the modifications can cause the inconsistency of document layout analysis between modified documents and the blocks can be merged and split, Sinkhorn divergence is adopted in our neural graph approach, which tries to overcome both these issues with many-to-many block matching. We demonstrate this on two categories of layouts, as follows., legal agreement and scientific articles, collected from our real-case datasets.

Keywords: document comparison, graph matching, graph neural network, modification similarity, multi-modal

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2340 Assessment of Trace Metals Contamination in Surficial and Core Sediments from Ghannouch- Gabes Coastline, Impact of Phosphogypsum Discharge, Southeastern of Tunisia, Mediterranean Sea: Geochemical and Mineralogical Approaches

Authors: Rim Ben Amor, Myriam Abidi, Moncef Gueddari

Abstract:

The purpose of the present study is to assess the level and the distribution of CaO, SO3, Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn incore sediments of Ghannouch-Gabes coast, Gulf of Gabes, Tunisian Mediterranean coast. The XRD analyses indicate that the sediments of Ghannouch-Gabes coast are mainly composed of quartz, calcite, gypsum and fluorine reflecting the impact of the phosphate fertilizer industrial waste. The vertical distribution of surface sediments shows for all the elements analyzed, that the area located between the commercial and the fishing port of Gabes, is the most polluted zone, where the two harbors acted as barriers and limited the dispersion of phosphogypsum discharge. The abundance order of metals was found to be Zn > Cd > Cu >Pb and that the highest levels of heavy metals were found in the uppermost segment of the sediment core compared to lower depth subsurface due to a continuous input of PG release and showed that the area between the two harbor suffered from several types of pollutants compared to reference core C1, collected from non-industrialized area. The level of pollution was evaluated using contamination factor (Cf), pollution load index (PLI) and the geoaccumulation index (Igeo). The obtained results of Igeo allowed us to distinguish that the area between the commercial harbor of Ghannouch and the fishing harbor of Gabes is the most polluted where sediments are strongly contaminated for Pb, Cu and Cd. The pollution load index (PLI) of all sediments collected classified them as "polluted". According to contamination factor (Cf), the sediments can be considered as ‘considerable’ to ‘very high’ contaminated for Pb, ‘very high to moderate’ for Cd, ‘ moderate’ for Zn, between ‘moderate’ and ‘considerable’ for Cu. Statistical analyses show that heavy metals, fluoride, calcium and sulphate are resulting from the same anthropogenic origin. The metallic pollution status of sediments of Ghanouch -Gabes coast is worrying and requires a serious intervention.

Keywords: trace metals, phosphogypsum, core sediments, accumulation factor, contamination factor

Procedia PDF Downloads 141
2339 High-Resolution Spatiotemporal Retrievals of Aerosol Optical Depth from Geostationary Satellite Using Sara Algorithm

Authors: Muhammad Bilal, Zhongfeng Qiu

Abstract:

Aerosols, suspended particles in the atmosphere, play an important role in the earth energy budget, climate change, degradation of atmospheric visibility, urban air quality, and human health. To fully understand aerosol effects, retrieval of aerosol optical properties such as aerosol optical depth (AOD) at high spatiotemporal resolution is required. Therefore, in the present study, hourly AOD observations at 500 m resolution were retrieved from the geostationary ocean color imager (GOCI) using the simplified aerosol retrieval algorithm (SARA) over the urban area of Beijing for the year 2016. The SARA requires top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) reflectance, solar and sensor geometry information and surface reflectance observations to retrieve an accurate AOD. For validation of the GOCI retrieved AOD, AOD measurements were obtained from the aerosol robotic network (AERONET) version 3 level 2.0 (cloud-screened and quality assured) data. The errors and uncertainties were reported using the root mean square error (RMSE), relative percent mean error (RPME), and the expected error (EE = ± (0.05 + 0.15AOD). Results showed that the high spatiotemporal GOCI AOD observations were well correlated with the AERONET AOD measurements with a correlation coefficient (R) of 0.92, RMSE of 0.07, and RPME of 5%, and 90% of the observations were within the EE. The results suggested that the SARA is robust and has the ability to retrieve high-resolution spatiotemporal AOD observations over the urban area using the geostationary satellite.

Keywords: AEORNET, AOD, SARA, GOCI, Beijing

Procedia PDF Downloads 171
2338 Physical and Chemical Alternative Methods of Fresh Produce Disinfection

Authors: Tuji Jemal Ahmed

Abstract:

Fresh produce is an essential component of a healthy diet. However, it can also be a potential source of pathogenic microorganisms that can cause foodborne illnesses. Traditional disinfection methods, such as washing with water and chlorine, have limitations and may not effectively remove or inactivate all microorganisms. This has led to the development of alternative/new methods of fresh produce disinfection, including physical and chemical methods. In this paper, we explore the physical and chemical new methods of fresh produce disinfection, their advantages and disadvantages, and their suitability for different types of produce. Physical methods of disinfection, such as ultraviolet (UV) radiation and high-pressure processing (HPP), are crucial in ensuring the microbiological safety of fresh produce. UV radiation uses short-wavelength UV-C light to damage the DNA and RNA of microorganisms, and HPP applies high levels of pressure to fresh produce to reduce the microbial load. These physical methods are highly effective in killing a wide range of microorganisms, including bacteria, viruses, and fungi. However, they may not penetrate deep enough into the product to kill all microorganisms and can alter the sensory characteristics of the product. Chemical methods of disinfection, such as acidic electrolyzed water (AEW), ozone, and peroxyacetic acid (PAA), are also important in ensuring the microbiological safety of fresh produce. AEW uses a low concentration of hypochlorous acid and a high concentration of hydrogen ions to inactivate microorganisms, ozone uses ozone gas to damage the cell membranes and DNA of microorganisms, and PAA uses a combination of hydrogen peroxide and acetic acid to inactivate microorganisms. These chemical methods are highly effective in killing a wide range of microorganisms, but they may cause discoloration or changes in the texture and flavor of some products and may require specialized equipment and trained personnel to produce and apply. In conclusion, the selection of the most suitable method of fresh produce disinfection should take into consideration the type of product, the level of microbial contamination, the effectiveness of the method in reducing the microbial load, and any potential negative impacts on the sensory characteristics, nutritional composition, and safety of the produce.

Keywords: fresh produce, pathogenic microorganisms, foodborne illnesses, disinfection methods

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2337 Velocity Profiles of Vowel Perception by Javanese and Sundanese English Language Learners

Authors: Arum Perwitasari

Abstract:

Learning L2 sounds is influenced by the first language (L1) sound system. This current study seeks to examine how the listeners with a different L1 vowel system perceive L2 sounds. The fact that English has a bigger number of vowel inventory than Javanese and Sundanese L1 might cause problems for Javanese and Sundanese English language learners perceiving English sounds. To reveal the L2 sound perception over time, we measured the mouse trajectories related to the hand movements made by Javanese and Sundanese language learners, two of Indonesian local languages. Do the Javanese and Sundanese listeners show higher velocity than the English listeners when they perceive English vowels which are similar and new to their L1 system? The study aims to map the patterns of real-time processing through compatible hand movements to reveal any uncertainties when making selections. The results showed that the Javanese listeners exhibited significantly slower velocity values than the English listeners for similar vowels /I, ɛ, ʊ/ in the 826-1200ms post stimulus. Unlike the Javanese, the Sundanese listeners showed slow velocity values except for similar vowel /ʊ/. For the perception of new vowels /i:, æ, ɜ:, ʌ, ɑː, u:, ɔ:/, the Javanese listeners showed slower velocity in making the lexical decision. In contrast, the Sundanese listeners showed slow velocity only for vowels /ɜ:, ɔ:, æ, I/ indicating that these vowels are hard to perceive. Our results fit well with the second language model representing how the L1 vowel system influences the L2 sound perception.

Keywords: velocity profiles, EFL learners, speech perception, experimental linguistics

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2336 Comparative Fragility Analysis of Shallow Tunnels Subjected to Seismic and Blast Loads

Authors: Siti Khadijah Che Osmi, Mohammed Ahmad Syed

Abstract:

Underground structures are crucial components which required detailed analysis and design. Tunnels, for instance, are massively constructed as transportation infrastructures and utilities network especially in urban environments. Considering their prime importance to the economy and public safety that cannot be compromised, thus any instability to these tunnels will be highly detrimental to their performance. Recent experience suggests that tunnels become vulnerable during earthquakes and blast scenarios. However, a very limited amount of studies has been carried out to study and understanding the dynamic response and performance of underground tunnels under those unpredictable extreme hazards. In view of the importance of enhancing the resilience of these structures, the overall aims of the study are to evaluate probabilistic future performance of shallow tunnels subjected to seismic and blast loads by developing detailed fragility analysis. Critical non-linear time history numerical analyses using sophisticated finite element software Midas GTS NX have been presented about the current methods of analysis, taking into consideration of structural typology, ground motion and explosive characteristics, effect of soil conditions and other associated uncertainties on the tunnel integrity which may ultimately lead to the catastrophic failure of the structures. The proposed fragility curves for both extreme loadings are discussed and compared which provide significant information the performance of the tunnel under extreme hazards which may beneficial for future risk assessment and loss estimation.

Keywords: fragility analysis, seismic loads, shallow tunnels, blast loads

Procedia PDF Downloads 343