Search results for: earthquake risk evaluation

Authors: Jiemiao Chen, Shuoxun Xu

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The main goal of our research is to apply the Vine copula measuring dependency between price, temperature, and precipitation indices to calculate a fair crop insurance premium. This research is focused on Worth, Iowa, United States, over the period from 2000 to 2020, where the farmers are dependent on precipitation and average temperature during the growth period of corn. Our proposed insurance considers both the natural risk and the price risk in agricultural production. We first estimate the distributions of crops using parametric methods based on Goodness of Fit tests, and then Vine Copula is applied to model dependence between yield price, crop yield, and weather indices. Once the vine structure and its parameters are determined based on AIC/BIC criteria and forecasting price and yield are obtained from the ARIMA model, we calculate this crop insurance premium using the simulation data generated from the vine copula by the Monte Carlo Simulation method. It is shown that, compared with traditional crop insurance, our proposed insurance is more fair and thus less costly for the farmers and government.

Keywords: vine copula, weather index, crop insurance premium, insurance risk management, Monte Carlo simulation

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Authors: Mark De Ste Croix, Jonathan Hughes, Francisco Ayala, Michal Lehnert

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There are well-known challenges to implementing injury prevention training for youth players but no data are available on the knowledge and understanding of deliverers of such programmes at grass root level. To increase adoption and adherence to such programmes coach knowledge and understanding of injury risk and prevention is essential. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to examine grass-root coaches knowledge and understanding of injury risk and prevention in youth players. 68 grass root coaches (18 females and 50 males) who were attending a one-day injury prevention workshop completed a modified validated questionnaire exploring knowledge and understanding of injury risk and prevention in youth players. Only 59% of coaches agreed that youth players are at a high risk of suffering an injury. There were high levels of agreement that injuries can have negative impacts on team performance (75%) and can cause physical problems in later life (85%), however only around half of coaches felt that injuries affect youth players current quality of life (59%). There was strong agreement that it is possible to prevent injuries in youth players (84%), but coaches were generally unaware of programs to help prevent injuries (84%), and only 9% used some form of injury prevention program. Despite this, nearly all coaches felt that their coaching could benefit from a greater understanding of growth and maturation (91%), injury prevention programmes (91%) and specific exercises (93%) for youth athletes. 17% of coaches rated their knowledge of injury prevention as good/very good at the start of the workshop and this increased to 94% at the end of the workshop. 62% of coaches identified their attitude towards injury prevention as indifferent at the start of the workshop compared with only 1% at the end. Only 14% of coaches at the start of the workshop were confident to deliver an injury prevention session but 83% stated they were confident by the end of the workshop. Finally, 98% of coaches felt that the workshop provided them with the confidence and the knowledge to deliver an injury prevention session and 98% suggested that they would implement injury prevention into their coaching. These data suggest that there is a lack of understanding of grass root coaches that children are a high-risk group for injuries, and that such injuries impact on current quality of life. Despite understanding that injuries can be prevented most grass root coaches do not have the knowledge to implement injury prevention into their coaching and very few do. There is a common consensus amongst these coaches that a greater understanding of such programmes will enhance their coaching. The injury prevention workshop appears to have increased the knowledge and changed the attitude of coaches towards injury prevention. All coaches felt that the workshop provided them with the tools to adopt, implement and deliver injury prevention in their coaching. These data highlight that there is a clear need for education regarding injury risk and prevention to be embedded within the coach education pathway, especially at grass root level.

Keywords: coach education, injury prevention, knowledge, and understanding, youth

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Authors: Euan Donley

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Emergency Departments (EDs) are heavily burdened as presentation rates continue to rise. To improve patient flow National Emergency Access Targets (NEAT) were introduced. NEAT implements timelines for ED presentations, such as discharging patients within four hours of arrival. Mental health patients use EDs more than the general population and are generally more complex in their presentations. The aim of this study is to examine the impact of NEAT on psychiatric risk assessment of mental health patients in the ED. Seventy-eight mental health clinicians from 7 Victoria, Australia, hospital EDs participated in a mixed method analysis via anonymous online survey. NEAT was considered helpful as mental health patients were seen quicker, were less likely to abscond, could improve teamwork amongst ED staff, and in some cases administrative processes were better streamlined. However, clinicians felt that NEAT was also responsible for less time with patients and relatives’, resulted in rushed assessments, placed undue pressure on mental health clinicians, was not conducive to training, and the emphasis on time was the wrong focus for patient treatment. The profile of a patient typically likely to be treated within NEAT timelines showed a perfect storm of luck and compliance. If a patient was sober, medically stable, referred early, did not require much collateral information and did not have distressed relatives, NEAT was more likely to be met. Organisationally participants reported no organisational change or training to meet NEAT. Poor mental health staffing, multiple ED presentations and a shortage of mental health beds also hamper meeting NEAT. Findings suggest participants were supportive of NEAT in principle, but a demanding workload and organisational barriers meant NEAT had an overall negative effect on psychiatric risk assessment of mental health patients in ED.

Keywords: assessment, emergency, risk, psychiatric

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Authors: Hanh Thi My Nguyen, Phuong Thu Dinh

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People with intellectual disability are at high risk for sexual abuse. The reasons may originate from their communication skills deficits, lack of skills and knowledge to protect themselves from sexual abuse, or limited access to sexual abuse prevention programs. This article aims to present a systematic review about strategies for preventing sexual abuse for young people with intellectual disability. A range of articles in 10 years from 2009 to 2018 are searched by using online database. 5 papers are included for the final review. The results of this comprehensive literature review showed that there are two main strategies used: programs designed for people with intellectual, including evaluation on sex education programs; and sexual education program for parents of children with intellectual disability. However, none of the papers were conducted in low-and middle-income countries. Therefore, cautions should be taken when it comes to interpret these findings. The findings of studies showed that participants increased their awareness and skills for protecting themselves from sexual abuse after participating in the programs. It is also recommended that more effective evidence-based programs should be developed.

Keywords: intellectual disability, prevention, sexual abuse, sexual education program

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Authors: Armel Zacharie Ekoa Bessa, Annick Kwewouo Janpou

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Sediments collected along the beaches of the Atlantic Ocean in Africa were analyzed by geochemical proxies such as the ICP-MS technique to determine their heavy metal contamination and related ecological risks. Several metals were selected and show a decreasing trend: Fe > Mn > Ni > Cu > Co > Zn > Cr > Cd. Several pollution indices have been calculated, including the enrichment factor (EF), whose values are generally higher than 1. 5; the geo-accumulation index (I-geo), with values of some elements (Co, Ni and Cu) in the sediments of the study area being higher than 0, and other metals (Zn, Cr, Fe and Mn) being lower than 0; the contamination factor (CF), where the values of all the selected elements are between 1 and 3; and the pollution load index (PLI), where the values in almost all the study sites are higher than 1. These results show moderate contamination of the investigated sediments with heavy metals. The potential ecological risk assessment (Eri and RI) suggests that this part of the African coast is a low to a slight risk area. Statistical analyses indicate that heavy metals have shown fairly similar trends with anthropogenic and natural sources. This study shows that this coastal area is not highly concentrated in heavy metals and reveals that the Atlantic coast of Africa would be moderately polluted by the metals studied, with a low to moderate ecological risk.

Keywords: heavy metals, pollution, atlantic ocean, sediments

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Authors: Terri Cole, Fay Sweeting

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Abuse of position for sexual gain by police is defined as behavior involving individuals taking advantage of their role to pursue a sexual or improper relationship. Previous research has considered whether it involves ‘bad apples’ - individuals with poor moral ethos or ‘bad barrels’ – broader organizational flaws which may unconsciously allow, minimize, or do not effectively deal with such behavior. Low level sexual misconduct (e.g., consensual sex on duty) is more common than more serious offences (e.g., rape), yet the impact of such behavior can have severe implications not only for those involved but can also negatively undermine public confidence in the police. This ongoing, collaborative research project has identified variables from 514 historic case files from 35 UK police forces in order to identify potential risk indicators which may lead to such behavior. Quantitative analysis using logistic regression and the Cox proportion hazard model has resulted in the identification of specific risk factors of significance in prediction. Factors relating to both perpetrator background such as a history of intimate partner violence, debt, and substance misuse coupled with in work behavior such as misusing police systems increase the risk. Findings are able to provide pragmatic recommendations for those tasked with identifying potential or investigating suspected perpetrators of misconduct.

Keywords: abuse of position, forensic psychology, misconduct, sexual abuse

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Authors: K. Asanimoghadam, M. Salahi, A. Jamalian

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Data envelopment analysis is an approach to measure the efficiency of decision making units with multiple inputs and outputs. The structure of many decision making units also has decision-making subunits that are not considered in most data envelopment analysis models. Also, the inputs and outputs of the decision-making units usually are considered desirable, while in some real-world problems, the nature of some inputs or outputs are undesirable. In this thesis, we study the evaluation of the efficiency of two stage decision-making units, where some outputs are undesirable using two non-radial models, the SBM and the ASBM models. We formulate the nonlinear ASBM model as a second order cone optimization problem. Finally, we compare two models for both external and internal evaluation approaches for two real world example in the presence of undesirable outputs. The results show that, in both external and internal evaluations, the overall efficiency of ASBM model is greater than or equal to the overall efficiency value of the SBM model, and in internal evaluation, the ASBM model is more flexible than the SBM model.

Keywords: network DEA, conic optimization, undesirable output, SBM

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Authors: Deirdre Mc Grath, Joanne Reid

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Background: Ovarian cancer is the leading cause of mortality among gynaecologic cancers in developed countries and the seventh most common cancer worldwide with nearly 240,000 women diagnosed each year. Although it is recognized engaging in exercise results in positive health care outcomes, women with ovarian cancer are reluctant to participate. No evidence currently exists focusing on how to successfully implement an exercise intervention program for patients with ovarian cancer, using a realist approach. There is a requirement for the implementation of exercise programmes within the oncology health care setting as engagement in such interventions has positive health care outcomes for women with ovarian cancer both during and following treatment. Aim: To co-design the implementation of an exercise intervention for women following treatment for ovarian cancer. Methods: This study is a realist evaluation using quantitative and qualitative methods of data collection and analysis. Realist evaluation is well-established within the health and social care setting and has in relation to this study enabled a flexible approach to investigate how to optimise implementation of an exercise intervention for this patient population. This single centre study incorporates three stages in order to identify the underlying contexts and mechanisms which lead to the successful implementation of an exercise intervention for women who have had treatment for ovarian cancer. Stage 1 - A realist literature review. Stage 2 -Co-design of the implementation of an exercise intervention with women following treatment for ovarian cancer, their carer’s, and health care professionals. Stage 3 –Implementation of an exercise intervention with women following treatment for ovarian cancer. Evaluation of the implementation of the intervention from the perspectives of the women who participated in the intervention, their informal carers, and health care professionals. The underlying program theory initially conceptualised before and during the realist review was developed further during the co-design stage. The evolving program theory in relation to how to successfully implement an exercise for these women is currently been refined and tested during the final stage of this realist evaluation which is the implementation and evaluation stage. Results: This realist evaluation highlights key issues in relation to the implementation of an exercise intervention within this patient population. The underlying contexts and mechanisms which influence recruitment, adherence, and retention rates of participants are identified. Conclusions: This study will inform future research on the implementation of exercise interventions for this patient population. It is anticipated that this intervention will be implemented into practice as part of standard care for this group of patients.

Keywords: ovarian cancer, exercise intervention, implementation, Co-design

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Authors: Claude Nsobya, Alice Moncaster, Karen Potter, Jed Ramsay

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The shift in Flood Risk Governance (FRG) has moved away from traditional approaches that solely relied on centralized decision-making and structural flood defenses. Instead, there is now the adoption of integrated flood risk management measures that involve various actors and stakeholders. This new approach emphasizes people-centered approaches, including adaptation and learning. This shift to a diversity of FRG approaches has been identified as a significant factor in enhancing resilience. Resilience here refers to a community's ability to withstand, absorb, recover, adapt, and potentially transform in the face of flood events. It is argued that if the FRG merely focused on the conventional 'fighting the water' - flood defense - communities would not be resilient. The move to these people-centered approaches also implies that communities will be more involved in FRG. It is suggested that effective flood risk governance influences resilience through meaningful community involvement, and effective community engagement is vital in shaping community resilience to floods. Successful community participation not only uses context-specific indigenous knowledge but also develops a sense of ownership and responsibility. Through capacity development initiatives, it can also raise awareness and all these help in building resilience. Recent Flood Risk Management (FRM) projects have thus had increasing community involvement, with varied conceptualizations of such community engagement in the academic literature on FRM. In the context of overland floods, there has been a substantial body of literature on Flood Risk Governance and Management. Yet, groundwater flooding has gotten little attention despite its unique qualities, such as its persistence for weeks or months, slow onset, and near-invisibility. There has been a little study in this area on how successful community involvement in Flood Risk Governance may improve community resilience to groundwater flooding in particular. This paper focuses on a case study of a flood risk management project in the United Kingdom. Buckinghamshire Council is leading Project Groundwater, which is one of 25 significant initiatives sponsored by England's Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) Flood and Coastal Resilience Innovation Programme. DEFRA awarded Buckinghamshire Council and other councils 150 million to collaborate with communities and implement innovative methods to increase resilience to groundwater flooding. Based on a literature review, this paper proposes a new paradigm for effective community engagement in Flood Risk Governance (FRG). This study contends that effective community participation can have an impact on various resilience capacities identified in the literature, including social capital, institutional capital, physical capital, natural capital, human capital, and economic capital. In the case of social capital, for example, successful community engagement can influence social capital through the process of social learning as well as through developing social networks and trust values, which are vital in influencing communities' capacity to resist, absorb, recover, and adapt. The study examines community engagement in Project Groundwater using surveys with local communities and documentary analysis to test this notion. The outcomes of the study will inform community involvement activities in Project Groundwater and may shape DEFRA policies and guidelines for community engagement in FRM.

Keywords: flood risk governance, community, resilience, groundwater flooding

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Authors: Pratima Pokharel

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When sewer overflow due to rainfall in urban areas, this leads to public health risks when an individual is exposed to that contaminated floodwater. Nevertheless, it is still unclear the extent to which the infections pose a risk to public health. This study analyzed reported diarrheal cases by month and age in Bangkok, Thailand. The results showed that the cases are reported higher in the wet season than in the dry season. It was also found that in Bangkok, the probability of infection with diarrheal diseases in the wet season is higher for the age group between 15 to 44. However, the probability of infection is highest for kids under 5 years, but they are not influenced by wet weather. Further, this study introduced a vulnerability that leads to health risks from urban flooding. This study has found some vulnerability variables that contribute to health risks from flooding. Thus, for vulnerability analysis, the study has chosen two variables, economic status, and age, that contribute to health risk. Assuming that the people's economic status depends on the types of houses they are living in, the study shows the spatial distribution of economic status in the vulnerability maps. The vulnerability map result shows that people living in Sukhumvit have low vulnerability to health risks with respect to the types of houses they are living in. In addition, from age the probability of infection of diarrhea was analyzed. Moreover, a field survey was carried out to validate the vulnerability of people. It showed that health vulnerability depends on economic status, income level, and education. The result depicts that people with low income and poor living conditions are more vulnerable to health risks. Further, the study also carried out 1D Hydrodynamic Advection-Dispersion modelling with 2-year rainfall events to simulate the dispersion of fecal coliform concentration in the drainage network as well as 1D/2D Hydrodynamic model to simulate the overland flow. The 1D result represents higher concentrations for dry weather flows and a large dilution of concentration on the commencement of a rainfall event, resulting in a drop of the concentration due to runoff generated after rainfall, whereas the model produced flood depth, flood duration, and fecal coliform concentration maps, which were transferred to ArcGIS to produce hazard and risk maps. In addition, the study also simulates the 5-year and 10-year rainfall simulations to show the variation in health hazards and risks. It was found that even though the hazard coverage is very high with a 10-year rainfall events among three rainfall events, the risk was observed to be the same with a 5-year and 10-year rainfall events.

Keywords: urban flooding, risk, hazard, vulnerability, health risk, framework

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Authors: Kai Chun Yang, Shao-Wen Chen, Jong-Rong Wang, Chunkuan Shih, Jung-Hua Yang, Hsiung-Chih Chen, Wen-Sheng Hsu

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In this study, we build RADionuclide Transport, Removal And Dose Estimation/Symbolic Nuclear Analysis Package (SNAP/RADTRAD) model of Kuosheng Nuclear Power Plant which is based on the Final Safety Evaluation Report (FSAR) and other data of Kuosheng Nuclear Power Plant. It is used to estimate the radiation dose of the Exclusion Area Boundary (EAB), the Low Population Zone (LPZ), and the control room following ‘release from the containment’ case in Loss Of Coolant Accident (LOCA). The RADTRAD analysis result shows that the evaluation dose at EAB, LPZ, and the control room are close to the FSAR data, and all of the doses are lower than the regulatory limits. At last, we do a sensitivity analysis and observe that the evaluation doses increase as the intake rate of the control room increases.

Keywords: RADTRAD, radionuclide transport, removal and dose estimation, snap, symbolic nuclear analysis package, boiling water reactor, NPP, kuosheng

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Authors: Abdullah Almilaibary, Jeremy Jolley, Mark Hayter

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Background: Despite recent progress in enhancing the accessibility of HIV-related health services worldwide, opportunities to diagnose patients are often missed due to genuine barriers at different levels. The aim of the study is to explore the factors that affect the utilization of HIV testing services by young people aged 17-25 in Saudi Arabia. Methods: A non-experimental descriptive cross-sectional design was used to predict factors that influenced HIV testing among Umm- Al Qura University students aged 17-25 years. A newly developed self-completed online questionnaire was used and the study sample was drawn using a convenience sampling technique. The questionnaire consisted of 52 items divided into three scales: 12 items for HIV/AIDS-related knowledge, 3 items for risk perception, and 37 items for attitudes toward HIV testing. Five experts in the field of HIV/AIDS validated the contents of the questionnaire and agreed that the items included were related to the construct being measured. The reliability of the questionnaire was also assessed using a test/re-test strategy with 27 participants recruited from the population under study. The reliability assessment revealed that the questionnaire was consistent as Cronbach’s Alpha was 0.80 for HIV/ADS knowledge, 0.88 for risk perception and 0.78 for attitudes towards HIV testing. The data were collected between 14th of July and 14th of October 2014. Results: 394 participants completed the questionnaires: 116 (29.4%) male and 278 (70%) female. 50.5% of the participants were aged 20 to 22 years, 34.8% were 17-19 years and 14.7% were aged between 23-25 years; about 93% of the participants were single. Only 20 (6%) participants had previously been tested for HIV. The main reasons for not being tested for HIV were: exposure to HIV was considered unlikely (48%), HIV test was not offered (36%) and unawareness of HIV testing centres (16%). On HIV/AIDS-related knowledge, the male participants scored higher than the females as the mean score for males was (M = 6.4, SD = 2.4) while for females it was (M 5.7, SD 2.5). In terms of risk perception, female participants appeared to have lower levels of risk perception than male participants, with the mean score for males being (M 11.7, SD 2.5) and (M 10.5, SD 2.4) for females. The female participants showed slightly more positive attitudes towards HIV testing than male participants: the mean score for males was (M = 108.14, SD = 17.9) and was (M = 111.32, SD = 17.3) for females. Conclusions: The data reveal that misconceptions about HIV/AIDS in Saudi Arabia are still a challenge. Although the attitudes towards HIV testing were reasonably positive, the utilization of the HIV test was low. Thus, tailoring HIV/AIDS preventive strategies in Saudi Arabia should focus on the needs of young people and other high risk groups in the country.

Keywords: attitude toward hiv testing, hiv testing, hiv/aids related knowledge, risk perception

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Authors: Amy Halseth, Kevin Shan, Kye Gilder, John Buse

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The study assessed the effect of prolonged-release naltrexone 32 mg/bupropion 360 mg (NB) on cardiovascular (CV) events in overweight/obese participants at elevated CV risk. Participants must lose ≥ 2% body weight at 16 wks, without a sustained increase in blood pressure, to continue drug. The study was terminated early after second interim analysis with 50% of all CV events. Data on CV endpoints has been published. Current analyses focus on weight change. Intent-to-treat (ITT) population (placebo [PBO] N=4450, NB N=4455) was 54.5% female, 83.5% white, mean age 61 yrs, mean BMI 37.3 kg/m2; 85.2% had type 2 diabetes, 32.1% had CV disease, 17.4% had both. At 52 wks, ITT-LOCF analysis showed greater least squares mean percent change in weight (LSM%ΔBW) with NB (-3.1%; 95% CI -4.8, -1.4) vs PBO (-0.3%; 95% CI -1.9, 1.4). Both groups demonstrated greater weight loss while on-treatment (NB [-7.3%], PBO [-3.9%]). Odds ratios of 5% and 10% weight loss were 3.3 and 4.1 (ITT-LOCF), respectively, in NB over PBO. At 104 wks, on-treatment LSM%ΔBW was -6.3% with NB (n=1137) vs -3.5% with PBO (n=741). Major reasons for NB withdrawal were adverse events (AE, 29%) and patient decision (21%), with GI disorders being the most common. Weight loss with NB in this study, in an older population predominantly with diabetes and elevated CV risk, was somewhat lower than that observed in overweight/obese participants without diabetes and similar to participants with diabetes in Phase 3 studies.

Keywords: contrave, mysimba, obesity, pharmacotherapy, weight loss

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Authors: Ping Jiang, Yunyan Xing, Dian Zhang, Bo Guo

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The reliability qualification test (RQT) is widely used in product development to qualify whether the product meets predetermined reliability requirements, which are mainly described in terms of reliability indices, for example, MTBF (Mean Time Between Failures). It is widely exercised in product development. In engineering practices, RQT plans are mandatorily referred to standards, such as MIL-STD-781 or GJB899A-2009. But these conventional RQT plans in standards are not preferred, as the test plans often require long test times or have high risks for both producer and consumer due to the fact that the methods in the standards only use the test data of the product itself. And the standards usually assume that the product is exponentially distributed, which is not suitable for a complex product other than electronics. So it is desirable to develop an RQT plan derivation method that safely shortens test time while keeping the two risks under control. To meet this end, for the product whose lifetime follows Weibull distribution, an RQT plan derivation method is developed. The merit of the method is that expert judgment is taken into account. This is implemented by applying the Bayesian method, which translates the expert judgment into prior information on product reliability. Then producer’s risk and the consumer’s risk are calculated accordingly. The procedures to derive RQT plans are also proposed in this paper. As extra information and expert judgment are added to the derivation, the derived test plans have the potential to shorten the required test time and have satisfactory low risks for both producer and consumer, compared with conventional test plans. A case study is provided to prove that when using expert judgment in deriving product test plans, the proposed method is capable of finding ideal test plans that not only reduce the two risks but also shorten the required test time as well.

Keywords: expert judgment, reliability qualification test, test plan derivation, producer’s risk, consumer’s risk

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Authors: Tanvir Ahmed, Thanh N. Long, Phan T. Huong, Donald E. Stewart

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This paper presents views on condom use and the contexts of safe and unsafe sexual practices with different sexual partners and their relationships among Injecting Drug Users (IDUs) in Hai Phong, Vietnam. Fifteen IDUs participated and two local interviewers conducted qualitative semi-structured face-to-face interviews in September-October, 2012 in Vietnamese language. Data were analyzed thematically. Non-protective condom attitudes include negotiate or convince Female Sex Workers (FSW); not realizing risk, importance or necessity; partner doesn’t like, and having extra money/drug from clients. On the other hand, self-awareness, family-consciousness, suspicion of STI presence, fear of getting HIV, and client negotiation sometimes resulted in a safe-sex practice. A thematic diagram was developed to present the relationship (strong/weak) between condom attitude and sexual practice (safe/unsafe) by partner types. The experiences and views reflected in the qualitative information emphasize the heightened need for safe-sex education especially among young IDUs (male/female) highlighting sexual transmission risk.

Keywords: AIDS, HIV, injecting drug user, risk behaviors, Vietnam

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Authors: Ariful Islam, Showkat Ahmad Lone

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Statistical distributions have long been employed in the assessment of semiconductor devices and product reliability. The power function-distribution is one of the most important distributions in the modern reliability practice and can be frequently preferred over mathematically more complex distributions, such as the Weibull and the lognormal, because of its simplicity. Moreover, it may exhibit a better fit for failure data and provide more appropriate information about reliability and hazard rates in some circumstances. This study deals with estimating information about failure times of items under step-stress partially accelerated life tests for competing risk based on adoptive type-I progressive hybrid censoring criteria. The life data of the units under test is assumed to follow Mukherjee-Islam distribution. The point and interval maximum-likelihood estimations are obtained for distribution parameters and tampering coefficient. The performances of the resulting estimators of the developed model parameters are evaluated and investigated by using a simulation algorithm.

Keywords: adoptive progressive hybrid censoring, competing risk, mukherjee-islam distribution, partially accelerated life testing, simulation study

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Authors: Katia C. Bortoletto, Maria Isabel C. de Freitas, Rodrigo B. N. de Oliveira

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The environmental vulnerability studies are essential for priority actions to the reduction of disasters risk. The aim of this study is to analyze the socio-environmental vulnerability obtained through a Census survey, followed by both a statistical analysis (PCA/SPSS/IBM) and a spatial analysis by GIS (ArcGis/ESRI), taking as a case study the Municipality of Caraguatatuba-SP, Brazil. In the municipal development plan analysis the emphasis was given to the Special Zone of Social Interest (ZEIS), the Urban Expansion Zone (ZEU) and the Environmental Protection Zone (ZPA). For the mapping of the social and environmental vulnerabilities of the study area the exposure of people (criticality) and of the place (support capacity) facing disaster risk were obtained from the 2010 Census from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). Considering the criticality, the variables of greater influence were related to literate persons responsible for the household and literate persons with 5 or more years of age; persons with 60 years or more of age and income of the person responsible for the household. In the Support Capacity analysis, the predominant influence was on the good household infrastructure in districts with low population density and also the presence of neighborhoods with little urban infrastructure and inadequate housing. The results of the comparative analysis show that the areas with high and very high vulnerability classes cover the classes of the ZEIS and the ZPA, whose zoning includes: Areas occupied by low-income population, presence of children and young people, irregular occupations and land suitable to urbanization but underutilized. The presence of zones of urban sprawl (ZEU) in areas of high to very high socio-environmental vulnerability reflects the inadequate use of the urban land in relation to the spatial distribution of the population and the territorial infrastructure, which favors the increase of disaster risk. It can be concluded that the study allowed observing the convergence between the vulnerability analysis and the classified areas in urban zoning. The occupation of areas unsuitable for housing due to its characteristics of risk was confirmed, thus concluding that the methodologies applied are agile instruments to subsidize actions to the reduction disasters risk.

Keywords: socio-environmental vulnerability, urban zoning, reduction disasters risk, methodologies

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Authors: Rocio Herrero Romero, Lucie Cluver, James Hall, Janina Steinert

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Educational delay and non-completion are major policy concerns in South Africa. However, little research has focused on predictors for educational delay amongst adolescents in disadvantaged areas. This study has two aims: first, to use data integration approaches to compare the educational delay of 599 adolescents aged 16 to 18 from disadvantaged communities to national and provincial representative estimates in South Africa. Second, the paper also explores predictors for educational delay by comparing adolescents out of school (n=64) and at least one year behind (n=380), with adolescents in the age-appropriate grade or higher (n=155). Multinomial logistic regression models using self-report and administrative data were applied to look for significant associations of risk and protective factors. Significant risk factors for being behind (rather than in age-appropriate grade) were: male gender, past grade repetition, rural location and larger school size. Risk factors for being out of school (rather than in the age-appropriate grade) were: past grade repetition, having experienced problems concentrating at school, household poverty, and food insecurity. Significant protective factors for being in the age-appropriate grade (rather than out of school) were: living with biological parents or grandparents and access to school counselling. Attending school in wealthier communities was a significant protective factor for being in the age-appropriate grade (rather than behind). Our results suggest that both personal and contextual factors –family and school- predicted educational delay. This study provides new evidence to the significant effects of personal, family, and school characteristics on the educational outcomes of adolescents from disadvantaged communities in South Africa. This is the first longitudinal and quantitative study to systematically investigate risk and protective factors for post-compulsory educational outcomes amongst South African adolescents living in disadvantaged communities.

Keywords: disadvantaged communities, quantitative analysis, school delay, South Africa

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Authors: Mustafa M. Donma, Orkide Donma

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Zinc is a vital element required for growth and development. This fact makes zinc important, particularly for children. It maintains normal cellular structure and functions. This essential element appears to have protective effects against coronary artery disease and cardiomyopathy. Higher serum zinc levels are associated with lower risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). There is a significant association between low serum zinc levels and heart failure. Zinc may be a potential biomarker of cardiovascular health. High sensitive cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) and cardiac myosin binding protein C (cMyBP-C) are new generation markers used for prediagnosis, diagnosis, and prognosis of CVDs. The aim of this study is to determine zinc as well as new generation cardiac markers profiles in children with normal body mass index (N-BMI), obese (OB), morbid obese (MO) children, and children with metabolic syndrome (MetS) findings. The association among them will also be investigated. Four study groups were constituted. The study protocol was approved by the institutional Ethics Committee of Tekirdag Namik Kemal University. Parents of the participants filled informed consent forms to participate in the study. Group 1 is composed of 44 children with N-BMI. Group 2 and Group 3 comprised 43 OB and 45 MO children, respectively. Forty-five MO children with MetS findings were included in Group 4. World Health Organization age- and sex-adjusted BMI percentile tables were used to constitute groups. These values were 15-85, 95-99, and above 99 for N-BMI, OB, and MO, respectively. Criteria for MetS findings were determined. Routine biochemical analyses, including zinc, were performed. High sensitive-cTnT and cMyBP-C concentrations were measured by kits based on enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay principle. Appropriate statistical tests within the scope of SPSS were used for the evaluation of the study data. p<0.05 was accepted as statistically significant. Four groups were matched for age and gender. Decreased zinc concentrations were measured in Groups 2, 3, and 4 compared to Group 1. Groups did not differ from one another in terms of hs-cTnT. There were statistically significant differences between cMyBP-C levels of MetS group and N-BMI as well as OB groups. There was an increasing trend going from N-BMI group to MetS group. There were statistically significant negative correlations between zinc and hs-cTnT as well as cMyBP-C concentrations in MetS group. In conclusion, inverse correlations detected between zinc and new generation cardiac markers (hs-TnT and cMyBP-C) have pointed out that decreased levels of this physiologically essential trace element accompany increased levels of hs-cTnT as well as cMyBP-C in children with MetS. This finding emphasizes that both zinc and these new generation cardiac markers may be evaluated as biomarkers of cardiovascular health during severe childhood obesity precipitated with MetS findings and also suggested as the messengers of the future risk in the adulthood periods of children with MetS.

Keywords: cardiac myosin binding protein-C, cardiovascular diseases, children, high sensitive cardiac troponin T, obesity

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Authors: Waseem Al Talalwah, Shorok Al Dorazi, Roger Soames

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Persistent sciatic artery is a rare anatomical vascular variation resulting from a lack of regression of the embryonic dorsal axial artery. The axial artery is the main artery supplying the lower limb during development in the first trimester. The current research includes 206 sciatic artery cases in 171 patients between 1864 and 2012. It aims to identify the risk factor of sciatic artery aneurysm in congenital limb anomalies. Sciatic artery aneurysm was diagnosed incidentally in amniotic band syndrome (ABS) existing with no congenital anomaly in 0.7% or with double knee in 0.7%, with the tibia in 0.7% and with hemihypertrophy or soft tissue hypertrophy in 1.4%. Therefore, the current study indicates a relationship the same gene responsible for the congenital limb deformities may be responsible for non-regression of the sciatic artery. Furthermore, pediatricians should refer cases of congenital limb anomalies for vascular evaluation prior to corrective surgical intervention.

Keywords: amniotic band syndrome, congenital limb deformities, double knee, sciatic artery, sciatic artery aneurysm , soft tissue hypertrophy

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Authors: Soheib Fergani

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This paper concerns with the formal asymptotic stability guarantees, analysis and evaluation of a nonlinear controlled unmanned aerial vehicles (uav) for trajectory tracking purpose. As the system has been recognised as an under-actuated non linear system, the control strategy has been oriented towards a hierarchical control. The dynamics of the system and the mission purpose make it mandatory to provide an absolute proof of the vehicle stability during the maneuvers. For this sake, this work establishes the complete theoretical proof for an implementable control oriented strategy that asymptotically stabilizes (GAS and LISS) the system and has never been provided in previous works. The considered model is reorganized into two partly decoupled sub-systems. The concidered control strategy is presented into two stages: the first sub-system is controlled by a nonlinear backstepping controller that generates the desired control inputs to stabilize the second sub-system. This methodology is then applied to a harware in the loop uav simulator (SiMoDrones) that reproduces the realistic behaviour of the uav in an indoor environment has been performed to show the efficiency of the proposed strategy.

Keywords: UAV application, trajectory tracking, backstepping, sliding mode control, input to state stability, stability evaluation

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Authors: Amadou Wurry Jallow, Adama N. S. Bah, Karamo Bah, Shih-Ye Wang, Kuo-Chung Chu, Chien-Yeh Hsu

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Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major public health challenge with high prevalence, rising incidence, and serious adverse consequences. Developing effective risk prediction models is a cost-effective approach to predicting and preventing complications of chronic kidney disease (CKD). This study aimed to develop an accurate machine learning model that can dynamically identify individuals at risk of CKD using various kinds of diagnostic data, with or without laboratory data, at different follow-up points. Creatinine is a key component used to predict CKD. These models will enable affordable and effective screening for CKD even with incomplete patient data, such as the absence of creatinine testing. This retrospective cohort study included data on 19,429 adults provided by a private research institute and screening laboratory in Taiwan, gathered between 2001 and 2015. Univariate Cox proportional hazard regression analyses were performed to determine the variables with high prognostic values for predicting CKD. We then identified interacting variables and grouped them according to diagnostic data categories. Our models used three types of data gathered at three points in time: non-laboratory, laboratory, and metabolic indices data. Next, we used subgroups of variables within each category to train two machine learning models (Random Forest and XGBoost). Our machine learning models can dynamically discriminate individuals at risk for developing CKD. All the models performed well using all three kinds of data, with or without laboratory data. Using only non-laboratory-based data (such as age, sex, body mass index (BMI), and waist circumference), both models predict chronic kidney disease as accurately as models using laboratory and metabolic indices data. Our machine learning models have demonstrated the use of different categories of diagnostic data for CKD prediction, with or without laboratory data. The machine learning models are simple to use and flexible because they work even with incomplete data and can be applied in any clinical setting, including settings where laboratory data is difficult to obtain.

Keywords: chronic kidney disease, glomerular filtration rate, creatinine, novel metabolic indices, machine learning, risk prediction

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Authors: Shadi Fathi, Moura Mehravar, Mujib Rahman

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Over the years,increased demands on railways, the emergence of high-speed trains and heavy axle loads, ageing, and deterioration of the existing tracks, is imposing costly maintenance actions on the railway sector. The need for developing a fast andcost-efficient non-destructive assessment method for the structural evaluation of railway tracksis therefore critically important. The layer modulus is the main parameter used in the structural design and evaluation of the railway track substructure (foundation). Among many recently developed NDTs, Falling Weight Deflectometer (FWD) test, widely used in pavement evaluation, has shown promising results for railway track substructure monitoring. The surface deflection data collected by FWD are used to estimate the modulus of substructure layers through the back-analysis technique. Although there are different commerciallyavailableback-analysis programs are used for pavement applications, there are onlya limited number of research-based techniques have been so far developed for railway track evaluation. In this paper, the suitability, accuracy, and reliability of the BAKFAAsoftware are investigated. The main rationale for selecting BAKFAA as it has a relatively straightforward user interfacethat is freely available and widely used in highway and airport pavement evaluation. As part of the study, a finite element (FE) model of a railway track section near Leominsterstation, Herefordshire, UK subjected to the FWD test, was developed and validated against available field data. Then, a virtual experimental database (including 218 sets of FWD testing data) was generated using theFE model and employed as the measured database for the BAKFAA software. This database was generated considering various layers’ moduli for each layer of track substructure over a predefined range. The BAKFAA predictions were compared against the cone penetration test (CPT) data (available from literature; conducted near to Leominster station same section as the FWD was performed). The results reveal that BAKFAA overestimatesthe layers’ moduli of each substructure layer. To adjust the BAKFA with the CPT data, this study introduces a correlation model to make the BAKFAA applicable in railway applications.

Keywords: back-analysis, bakfaa, railway track substructure, falling weight deflectometer (FWD), cone penetration test (CPT)

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Authors: Siti Sabariah Buhari, Ruzita Abdul Talib, Poh Bee Koon

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This study aims to develop and evaluate an intervention to improve eating habits, active lifestyle and weight status of overweight and obese children in Negeri Sembilan. The H.E.B.A.T! Program involved children, parents, and school and focused on behaviour and environment modification to achieve its goal. The intervention consists of H.E.B.A.T! Camp, parent’s workshop and school-based activities. A total of 21 children from intervention school and 22 children from control school who had BMI for age Z-score ≥ +1SD participated in the study. Mean age of subjects was 10.8 ± 0.3 years old. Four phases were included in the development of the intervention. Evaluation of intervention was conducted through process, impact and outcome evaluation. Process evaluation found that intervention program was implemented successfully with minimal modification and without having any technical problems. Impact and outcome evaluation was assessed based on dietary intake, average step counts, BMI for age z-score, body fat percentage and waist circumference at pre-intervention (T0), post-intervention 1 (T1) and post-intervention 2 (T2). There was significant reduction in energy (14.8%) and fat (21.9%) intakes (at p < 0.05) at post-intervention 1 (T1) in intervention group. By controlling for sex as covariate, there was significant intervention effect for average step counts, BMI for age z-score and waist circumference (p < 0.05). In conclusion, the intervention made an impact on positive behavioural intentions and improves weight status of the children. It is expected that the HEBAT! Program could be adopted and implemented by the government and private sector as well as policy-makers in formulating childhood obesity intervention.

Keywords: childhood obesity, diet, obesity intervention, physical activity

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Authors: Julio Sotomayor, Daniel Yucra, Jorge Mayhuasca

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The article presents an evaluation of free technologies for business process automation, with emphasis only on tools compatible with the general public license (GPL). The compendium of technologies was based on promoting a service-oriented enterprise architecture (SOA) and the establishment of a business process management system (BPMS). The methodology for the selection of tools was Agile UP. This proposal allows businesses to achieve technological sovereignty and independence, in addition to the promotion of service orientation and the development of free software based on components.

Keywords: BPM, BPMS suite, open-source software, SOA, enterprise architecture, business process management

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Authors: Suin Seo, Sung-Il Cho

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Background: The use of mobile apps for smoking cessation has grown exponentially in recent years. Yet, there were limited researches which evaluated the quality of smoking cessation apps to our knowledge. In most cases, a clinical practice guideline which is focused on clinical physician was used as an evaluation tool. Objective: The objective of this study was to develop a user-centered measure for quality of mobile smoking cessation apps. Methods: A literature search was conducted to identify articles containing explicit smoking cessation guideline for smoker published until January 2018. WHO’s guide for tobacco users to quit was adopted for evaluation tool which assesses smoker-oriented contents of smoking cessation apps. Compared to the clinical practice guideline, WHO guideline was designed for smokers (non-specialist). On the basis of existing criteria which was developed based on 2008 clinical practice guideline for Treating Tobacco Use and Dependence, evaluation tool was modified and developed by an expert panel. Results: There were five broad categories of criteria that were identified including five objective quality scales: enhancing motivation, assistance with a planning and making quit attempts, preparation for relapse, self-efficacy, connection to smoking. Enhancing motivation and assistance with planning and making quit attempts were similar to contents of clinical practice guideline, but preparation for relapse, self-efficacy and connection to smoking (environment or habit which reminds of smoking) only existed on WHO guideline. WHO guideline had more user-centered elements than clinical guideline. Especially, self-efficacy is the most important determinant of behavior change in accordance with many health behavior change models. With the WHO guideline, it is now possible to analyze the content of the app in the light of a health participant, not a provider. Conclusion: The WHO guideline evaluation tool is a simple, reliable and smoker-centered tool for assessing the quality of mobile smoking cessation apps. It can also be used to provide a checklist for the development of new high-quality smoking cessation apps.

Keywords: smoking cessation, evaluation, mobile application, WHO, guideline

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Authors: Nabila Farhin, Israt Jahan

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Despite the feminisation of the global health force, women mostly engage in nursing, midwifery and community health workers (HWs), and the posts like surgeons, doctors, and specialists are generally male-dominated. It is also prominent in Bangladesh, where female HWs witness systematic workplace inequalities, discrimination, and underpayment. The Covid-19 pandemic put unsurmountable pressure on HWs as they had to serve in high-risk workplaces as frontliners. The already disadvantaged female HWs shouldered the same burden, were overworked without adequate occupational health and safety measures (OSH) and risked their lives. Acknowledging their vulnerable workplace conditions, the World Health Organization (WHO) and International Labour Organization (ILO) circulated a few specialised guidelines amid the peril. Bangladesh tried to adhere to international guidelines while formulating pandemic management strategies. In reality, the already weak and understaffed health sector collapsed with the patient influx and many HWs got infected and died in the line of duty, exposing the high-risk nature of the work. Unfortunately, the gender-segregated data of infected HWs are absent. This qualitative research investigates whether the existing laws of Bangladesh are adequate in protecting female HWs as frontliners in high-risk workplaces during the Covid-19 pandemic. The paper first examines international labour laws safeguarding female frontline HWs. It also analyses the specialised Covid-19 pandemic guidelines protecting their interests. Finally, the research investigates the compliance of Bangladesh as per international legal guidance during the pandemic. In doing so, it explores the domestic laws, professional guidelines for HWs and pandemic response strategies. The paper critically examines the primary sources like international and national statutes, rules, regulations and guidelines. Secondary sources like authoritative journal articles, books and newspaper reports are contextually analysed in line with the objective of the paper. The definition of HW is ambiguous in the labour laws of Bangladesh. It leads to confusion regarding the extent of legal protection rendered to female HWs at private hospitals in high-risk situations. The labour laws are not applicable in Public hospitals, as the employees follow the public service rules. Unfortunately, the country has no specialised law to protect HWs in high-risk workplaces, and the professional guidelines for HWs also remain inadequate in this regard. Even though the pandemic management strategies highlight some protective measures in high-risk situations, they only deal with HWs who are pregnant or have underlying health issues. No specialised protective guidelines can be found for female HWs as frontliners. Therefore, the laws are insufficient and failed to render adequate legal protection to female frontline HWs during the pandemic. The country also lacks comprehensive health legislation and uniform institutional and professional guidelines, preventing them from accessing grievance mechanisms. Hence, the female HWs felt victimised while duty-bound to serve in high-risk workplaces without adequate safeguards. Bangladesh should clarify the definition of HWs and standardise the service rules for providing medical care in high-risk workplaces. The research also recommends adequate health legislation and specialised legal protection to safeguard female HWs in future emergencies.

Keywords: female health workers (HWs), high-risk workplaces, Covid-19 pandemic, Bangladesh

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Authors: Golnoush Rostami, Farzam Kharvari

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In recent years, developments in the field of architectural education have resulted in a shift from conventional teaching methods to alternative state-of-the-art approaches in teaching methods and strategies. Criticism in architecture has been a key player both in the profession and education, but it has been mostly offered by renowned individuals. Hence, not only students or other professionals but also critics themselves may not have the option to experience buildings and rely on available 2D materials, such as images and plans, that may not result in a holistic understanding and evaluation of buildings. On the other hand, immersive environments provide students and professionals the opportunity to experience buildings virtually and reflect their evaluation by experiencing rather than judging based on 2D materials. Therefore, the aim of this study is to compare the effect of experiencing buildings in immersive environments and 2D drawings, including images and plans, on architecture criticism and architectural education. As a result, three buildings that have parametric brick facades were studied through 2D materials and in Unreal Engine v. 24 as an immersive environment among 22 architecture students that were selected using convenient sampling and were divided into two equal groups using simple random sampling. This study used mixed methods, including quantitative and qualitative methods; the quantitative section was carried out by a questionnaire, and deep interviews were used for the qualitative section. A questionnaire was developed for measuring three constructs, including privacy regulation based on Altman’s theory, the sufficiency of illuminance levels in the building, and the visual status of the view (visually appealing views based on obstructions that may have been caused by facades). Furthermore, participants had the opportunity to reflect their understanding and evaluation of the buildings in individual interviews. Accordingly, the collected data from the questionnaires were analyzed using independent t-test and descriptive analyses in IBM SPSS Statistics v. 26, and interviews were analyzed using the content analysis method. The results of the interviews showed that the participants who experienced the buildings in the immersive environment were able to have a thorough and more precise evaluation of the buildings in comparison to those who studied them through 2D materials. Moreover, the analyses of the respondents’ questionnaires revealed that there were statistically significant differences between measured constructs among the two groups. The outcome of this study suggests that integrating immersive environments into the profession and architectural education as an effective and efficient tool for architecture criticism is vital since these environments allow users to have a holistic evaluation of buildings for vigorous and sound criticism.

Keywords: immersive environments, architecture criticism, architectural education, occupant-centric evaluation, pre-occupancy evaluation

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Authors: Eakarat Boonreang

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The past two decades, Thailand faced the natural disasters, for instance, Gay typhoon in 1989, tsunami in 2004, and huge flood in 2011. The disaster management in Thailand was improved both structure and mechanism for cope with the natural disaster since 2007. However, the natural disaster management in Thailand has various problems, for examples, cooperation between related an organizations have not unity, inadequate resources, the natural disaster management of public sectors not proactive, people has not awareness the risk of the natural disaster, and communities did not participate in the natural disaster management. Objective of this study is to find the methods for capacity building in the natural disaster management of Thailand. The concept and information about the capacity building and the natural disaster management of Thailand were reviewed and analyzed by classifying and organizing data. The result found that the methods for capacity building in the natural disaster management of Thailand should be consist of 1)link operation and information in the natural disaster management between nation, province, local and community levels, 2)enhance competency and resources of public sectors which relate to the natural disaster management, 3)establish proactive natural disaster management both planning and implementation, 4)decentralize the natural disaster management to local government organizations, 5)construct public awareness in the natural disaster management to community, 6)support Community Based Disaster Risk Management (CBDRM) seriously, and 7)emphasis on participation in the natural disaster management of all stakeholders.

Keywords: capacity building, Community Based Disaster Risk Management (CBDRM), Natural Disaster Management, Thailand

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Authors: Yongrong Liu, Xin Tang

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Background: Persistent atrial fibrillation is a common arrhythmia closely related to heart failure. Heart rate control is an essential strategy for treating persistent atrial fibrillation. Still, the understanding of the relationship between different heart rate control levels and the risk of heart failure rehospitalization is limited. Objective: The objective of the study is to determine the relationship between different levels of heart rate control in patients with persistent atrial fibrillation and the risk of readmission for heart failure. Methods: We conducted a retrospective dual-centre cohort study, collecting data from patients with persistent atrial fibrillation who received outpatient treatment at two tertiary hospitals in central and western China from March 2019 to March 2020. The collected data included age, gender, body mass index (BMI), medical history, and hospitalization frequency due to heart failure. Patients were divided into three groups based on their heart rate control levels: Group I with a resting heart rate of less than 80 beats per minute, Group II with a resting heart rate between 80 and 100 beats per minute, and Group III with a resting heart rate greater than 100 beats per minute. The readmission rates due to heart failure within one year after discharge were statistically analyzed using propensity score matching in a 1:1 ratio. Differences in readmission rates among the different groups were compared using one-way ANOVA. The impact of varying levels of heart rate control on the risk of readmission for heart failure was assessed using the Cox proportional hazards model. Binary logistic regression analysis was employed to control for potential confounding factors. Results: We enrolled a total of 1136 patients with persistent atrial fibrillation. The results of the one-way ANOVA showed that there were differences in readmission rates among groups exposed to different levels of heart rate control. The readmission rates due to heart failure for each group were as follows: Group I (n=432): 31 (7.17%); Group II (n=387): 11.11%; Group III (n=317): 90 (28.50%) (F=54.3, P<0.001). After performing 1:1 propensity score matching for the different groups, 223 pairs were obtained. Analysis using the Cox proportional hazards model showed that compared to Group I, the risk of readmission for Group II was 1.372 (95% CI: 1.125-1.682, P<0.001), and for Group III was 2.053 (95% CI: 1.006-5.437, P<0.001). Furthermore, binary logistic regression analysis, including variables such as digoxin, hypertension, smoking, coronary heart disease, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease as independent variables, revealed that coronary heart disease and COPD also had a significant impact on readmission due to heart failure (p<0.001). Conclusion: The correlation between the heart rate control level of patients with persistent atrial fibrillation and the risk of heart failure rehospitalization is positive. Reasonable heart rate control may significantly reduce the risk of heart failure rehospitalization.

Keywords: heart rate control levels, heart failure rehospitalization, persistent atrial fibrillation, retrospective cohort study

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