Search results for: churn prediction modeling

Authors: Gayathri Nagarajan, L. D. Dhinesh Babu

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Health care is one of the prominent industries that generate voluminous data thereby finding the need of machine learning techniques with big data solutions for efficient processing and prediction. Missing data, incomplete data, real time streaming data, sensitive data, privacy, heterogeneity are few of the common challenges to be addressed for efficient processing and mining of health care data. In comparison with other applications, accuracy and fast processing are of higher importance for health care applications as they are related to the human life directly. Though there are many machine learning techniques and big data solutions used for efficient processing and prediction in health care data, different techniques and different frameworks are proved to be effective for different applications largely depending on the characteristics of the datasets. In this paper, we present a framework that uses ensemble machine learning technique gradient boosted trees for data classification in health care big data. The framework is built on Spark platform which is fast in comparison with other traditional frameworks. Unlike other works that focus on a single technique, our work presents a comparison of six different machine learning techniques along with gradient boosted trees on datasets of different characteristics. Five benchmark health care datasets are considered for experimentation, and the results of different machine learning techniques are discussed in comparison with gradient boosted trees. The metric chosen for comparison is misclassification error rate and the run time of the algorithms. The goal of this paper is to i) Compare the performance of gradient boosted trees with other machine learning techniques in Spark platform specifically for health care big data and ii) Discuss the results from the experiments conducted on datasets of different characteristics thereby drawing inference and conclusion. The experimental results show that the accuracy is largely dependent on the characteristics of the datasets for other machine learning techniques whereas gradient boosting trees yields reasonably stable results in terms of accuracy without largely depending on the dataset characteristics.

Keywords: big data analytics, ensemble machine learning, gradient boosted trees, Spark platform

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Authors: Christian Louis Kühner, Florian Pfeffel, Valentin Nickolai

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Taking care of children, dependents, or pets can be a difficult and time-consuming task. Especially for part- and full-time employees, it can feel exhausting and overwhelming to meet these obligations besides working a job. Thus, working mostly at home and not having to drive to the company can save valuable time and stress. This study aims to show the influence that the working model has on the job satisfaction of employees with care responsibilities in comparison to employees who do not have such obligations. Using structural equation modeling (SEM), the three work models, “work from home”, “working remotely”, and a hybrid model, have been analyzed based on 13 influencing constructs on job satisfaction. These 13 factors have been further summarized into three groups “classic influencing factors”, “influencing factors changed by remote working”, and “new remote working influencing factors”. Based on the influencing factors on job satisfaction, an online survey was conducted with n = 684 employees from the service sector. Here, Cronbach’s alpha of the individual constructs was shown to be suitable. Furthermore, the construct validity of the constructs was confirmed by face validity, content validity, convergent validity (AVE > 0.5: CR > 0.7), and discriminant validity. In addition, confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) confirmed the model fit for the investigated sample (CMIN/DF: 2.567; CFI: 0.927; RMSEA: 0.048). The SEM-analysis has shown that the most significant influencing factor on job satisfaction is “identification with the work” with β = 0.540, followed by “Appreciation” (β = 0.151), “Compensation” (β = 0.124), “Work-Life-Balance” (β = 0.116), and “Communication and Exchange of Information” (β = 0.105). While the significance of each factor can vary depending on the work model, the SEM-analysis shows that the identification with the work is the most significant factor in all three work models and, in the case of the traditional office work model, it is the only significant influencing factor. The study shows that among the employees with care responsibilities, the higher the proportion of working from home in comparison to working from the office, the more satisfied the employees are with their job. Since the work models that meet the requirements of comprehensive care led to higher job satisfaction amongst employees with such obligations, adapting as a company to such private obligations by employees can be crucial to sustained success. Conversely, the satisfaction level of the working model where employees work at the office is higher for workers without caregiving responsibilities.

Keywords: care responsibilities, home office, job satisfaction, structural equation modeling

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Authors: M. Pienaar, J. W. Odendaal, J. C. Smit, J. Joubert

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Simulations are commonly used to predict the bistatic radar cross section (RCS) of military targets since characterization measurements can be expensive and time consuming. It is thus important to accurately predict the bistatic RCS of targets. Computational electromagnetic (CEM) methods can be used for bistatic RCS prediction. CEM methods are divided into full-wave and asymptotic methods. Full-wave methods are numerical approximations to the exact solution of Maxwell’s equations. These methods are very accurate but are computationally very intensive and time consuming. Asymptotic techniques make simplifying assumptions in solving Maxwell's equations and are thus less accurate but require less computational resources and time. Asymptotic techniques can thus be very valuable for the prediction of bistatic RCS of electrically large targets, due to the decreased computational requirements. This study extends previous work by validating the accuracy of asymptotic techniques to predict bistatic RCS through comparison with full-wave simulations as well as measurements. Validation is done with canonical structures as well as complex realistic aircraft models instead of only looking at a complex slicy structure. The slicy structure is a combination of canonical structures, including cylinders, corner reflectors and cubes. Validation is done over large bistatic angles and at different polarizations. Bistatic RCS measurements were conducted in a compact range, at the University of Pretoria, South Africa. The measurements were performed at different polarizations from 2 GHz to 6 GHz. Fixed bistatic angles of β = 30.8°, 45° and 90° were used. The measurements were calibrated with an active calibration target. The EM simulation tool FEKO was used to generate simulated results. The full-wave multi-level fast multipole method (MLFMM) simulated results together with the measured data were used as reference for validation. The accuracy of physical optics (PO) and geometrical optics (GO) was investigated. Differences relating to amplitude, lobing structure and null positions were observed between the asymptotic, full-wave and measured data. PO and GO were more accurate at angles close to the specular scattering directions and the accuracy seemed to decrease as the bistatic angle increased. At large bistatic angles PO did not perform well due to the shadow regions not being treated appropriately. PO also did not perform well for canonical structures where multi-bounce was the main scattering mechanism. PO and GO do not account for diffraction but these inaccuracies tended to decrease as the electrical size of objects increased. It was evident that both asymptotic techniques do not properly account for bistatic structural shadowing. Specular scattering was calculated accurately even if targets did not meet the electrically large criteria. It was evident that the bistatic RCS prediction performance of PO and GO depends on incident angle, frequency, target shape and observation angle. The improved computational efficiency of the asymptotic solvers yields a major advantage over full-wave solvers and measurements; however, there is still much room for improvement of the accuracy of these asymptotic techniques.

Keywords: asymptotic techniques, bistatic RCS, geometrical optics, physical optics

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Authors: Mohammad Mehdi Pardsouie, Mehdi Mokhberi, Seyed Mohammad Ali Zomorodian, Seyed Alireza Nasehi

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One of the challenging parts of every project, including prefabricated vertical drains (PVDs), is the determination of the depth of installation and its configuration. In this paper, Geostudio 2018 was used for modeling and verification of the full-scale test embankments (TS1, TS2, and TS3), which were constructed to study the effectiveness of PVDs for accelerating the consolidation and dissipation of the excess pore-pressures resulting from fill placement at Bangkok airport. Different depths and scenarios were modeled and the results were compared and analyzed. Since the ultimate goal is attaining pre-determined settlement, the settlement curve under soil embankment was used for the investigation of the results. It was shown that nearly in all cases, the same results and efficiency might be obtained by partial depth installation of PVDs instead of complete full constant length installation. However, it should be mentioned that because of distinct soil characteristics of clay soils and layers properties of any project, further investigation of full-scale test embankments and modeling is needed prior to finalizing the ultimate design by competent geotechnical consultants.

Keywords: partial penetration, surcharge preloading, excess pore water pressure, Bangkok test embankments

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Authors: Hassan Manouchehri

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The present study aimed to identify and evaluate the factors affecting violence against women. The statistical population included all couples referring to family counseling centers in Tehran due to domestic violence during the past year. A number of 305 people were selected as a statistical sample using simple random sampling and Cochran's formula in unlimited conditions. A researcher-made questionnaire including 110 items was used for data collection. The face validity and content validity of the questionnaire were confirmed by 30 experts and its reliability was obtained above 0.7 for all studied variables in a preliminary test with 30 subjects and it was acceptable. In order to analyze the data, descriptive statistical methods were used with SPSS software version 22 and inferential statistics were used for modeling structural equations in Smart PLS software version 2. Evaluating the theoretical framework and domestic and foreign studies indicated that, in general, four main factors, including cultural and social factors, economic factors, legal factors, as well as medical factors, underlie violence against women. In addition, structural equation modeling findings indicated that cultural and social factors, economic factors, legal factors, and medical factors affect violence against women.

Keywords: violence against women, cultural and social factors, economic factors, legal factors, medical factors

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Authors: Mohammad Javad Behzadnia, Amir Bahador Boroumand

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Introduction: Limited facility situations require allocating the most available resources for most casualties. Accordingly, Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI) is the one that may need to transport the patient as soon as possible. In a mass casualty event, deciding when the facilities are restricted is hard. The Extended Glasgow Outcome Score (GOSE) has been introduced to assess the global outcome after brain injuries. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate the prognostic factors associated with GOSE. Materials and Methods: In a multicenter cross-sectional study conducted on 144 patients with TBI admitted to trauma emergency centers. All the patients with isolated TBI who were mentally and physically healthy before the trauma entered the study. The patient’s information was evaluated, including demographic characteristics, duration of hospital stays, mechanical ventilation on admission laboratory measurements, and on-admission vital signs. We recorded the patients’ TBI-related symptoms and brain computed tomography (CT) scan findings. Results: GOSE assessments showed an increasing trend by the comparison of on-discharge (7.47 ± 1.30), within a month (7.51 ± 1.30), and within three months (7.58 ± 1.21) evaluations (P < 0.001). On discharge, GOSE was positively correlated with Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) (r = 0.729, P < 0.001) and motor GCS (r = 0.812, P < 0.001), and inversely with age (r = −0.261, P = 0.002), hospitalization period (r = −0.678, P < 0.001), pulse rate (r = −0.256, P = 0.002) and white blood cell (WBC). Among imaging signs and trauma-related symptoms in univariate analysis, intracranial hemorrhage (ICH), interventricular hemorrhage (IVH) (P = 0.006), subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) (P = 0.06; marginally at P < 0.1), subdural hemorrhage (SDH) (P = 0.032), and epidural hemorrhage (EDH) (P = 0.037) were significantly associated with GOSE at discharge in multivariable analysis. Conclusion: Our study showed some predictive factors that could help to decide which casualty should transport earlier to a trauma center. According to the current study findings, GCS, pulse rate, WBC, and among imaging signs and trauma-related symptoms, ICH, IVH, SAH, SDH, and EDH are significant independent predictors of GOSE at discharge in TBI patients.

Keywords: field, Glasgow outcome score, prediction, traumatic brain injury.

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Authors: Hesham A. Khalek, Shafik S. Khoury, Remon F. Aziz, Mohamed A. Hakam

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Slipforming operation’s linearity is a source of planning complications, and operation is usually subjected to bottlenecks at any point, so careful planning is required in order to achieve success. On the other hand, Discrete-event simulation concepts can be applied to simulate and analyze construction operations and to efficiently support construction scheduling. Nevertheless, preparation of input data for construction simulation is very challenging, time-consuming and human prone-error source. Therefore, to enhance the benefits of using DES in construction scheduling, this study proposes an integrated module to establish a framework for automating the generation of time schedules and decision support for Slipform construction projects, particularly through the project feasibility study phase by using data exchange between project data stored in an Intermediate database, DES and Scheduling software. Using the stored information, proposed system creates construction tasks attribute [e.g. activities durations, material quantities and resources amount], then DES uses all the given information to create a proposal for the construction schedule automatically. This research is considered a demonstration of a flexible Slipform project modeling, rapid scenario-based planning and schedule generation approach that may be of interest to both practitioners and researchers.

Keywords: discrete-event simulation, modeling, construction planning, data exchange, scheduling generation, EZstrobe

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Authors: Stefano Federici, Alessandro Lepri, Antonella Carrera

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Kessler and McKenna in the seventies, and recently Federici and Lepri investigated how an individual attributes gender to a person. By administering nudes of human figures, the scholars have found that the penis more than the vagina and the male sexual characteristics more than the female ones are significantly more salient in the gender attribution process. Federici and Lepri suggested that the asymmetrical salience of sexual characteristics is attributable to evolved decision-making processes for the solution of gender attribution problems to avoid the greatest danger of an (angry) adult male. The present study has observed the behaviour of 60 children, aged between 3 and 6 years, and their parents verifying whether the child gender attribution mechanisms are permeable to cultural stereotypes. The participating children were asked to make a male or a female on a tablet by combining 12 human physical characteristics (long hair, short hair, wide hips, narrow hips, breasts, flat chest, body hair, hairless body, penis, vagina, male face, and female face) and four cloths (male t-shirt, female t-shirt, pants, and skirt) by superimposing one or more of them on a sexually neutral manikin. On the tablet was installed an App, created by authors, to replicate the Kessler and McKenna and Federici and Lepri previous studies. One of the parents of each of the participating children was asked to make a male or a female using the same apparatus used by children. In addition, the participating parents were asked to complete a test, as proposed by Federici and Lepri in their previous study, to compare adult and child processes of gender attribution. The results suggested that children are affected both by evolved mechanisms as adults were (e.g., taking less time to make a male than a female, using the penis more often than the vagina), and by cultural modeling of parental and environmental gender stereotypes (e.g., the genitals were often covered with pants in case the delivery was to make a male and a skirt in the case was to make a female).

Keywords: biological sex, cognitive biases, cultural modeling, gender attribution, evolved decision-making processes

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Authors: Amr AbdelAzim Ali, G. A. Elsheikh, Moutaz M. Hegazy

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Reaction wheels (RWs) are generally used as main actuator in the attitude control system (ACS) of spacecraft (SC) for fast orientation and high pointing accuracy. In order to achieve the required accuracy for the RWs model, the main characteristics of the RWs that necessitate analysis during the ACS design phase include: technical features, sequence of operating and RW control logic are included in function (behavior) model. A mathematical model is developed including the various errors source. The errors in control torque including relative, absolute, and error due to time delay. While the errors in angular velocity due to differences between average and real speed, resolution error, loose in installation of angular sensor, and synchronization errors. The friction torque is presented in the model include the different feature of friction phenomena: steady velocity friction, static friction and break-away torque, and frictional lag. The model response is compared with the experimental torque and frequency-response characteristics of tested RWs. Based on the created RW model, some criteria of optimization based control torque allocation problem can be recommended like: avoiding the zero speed crossing, bias angular velocity, or preventing wheel from running on the same angular velocity.

Keywords: friction torque, reaction wheels modeling, software in the loop, spacecraft attitude control

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Authors: Hadis Pouyafar, D. Matin Alaghmandan

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Gallium arsenide (GaAs) solar cells are widely used in applications like spacecraft and satellites because they have a high absorption coefficient and efficiency and can withstand high-energy particles such as electrons and protons. With the energy crisis, there's a growing need for efficiency and cost-effective solar cells. GaAs cells, with their 46% efficiency compared to silicon cells 23% can be utilized in buildings to achieve nearly zero emissions. This way, we can use irradiation and convert more solar energy into electricity. III V semiconductors used in these cells offer performance compared to other technologies available. However, despite these advantages, Si cells dominate the market due to their prices. In our study, we took an approach by using software from the start to gather all information. By doing so, we aimed to design the optimal building that harnesses the full potential of solar energy. Our modeling results reveal a future; for GaAs cells, we utilized the Grasshopper plugin for modeling and optimization purposes. To assess radiation, weather data, solar energy levels and other factors, we relied on the Ladybug and Honeybee plugins. We have shown that silicon solar cells may not always be the choice for meeting electricity demands, particularly when higher power output is required. Therefore, when it comes to power consumption and the available surface area for photovoltaic (PV) installation, it may be necessary to consider efficient solar cell options, like GaAs solar cells. By considering the building requirements and utilizing GaAs technology, we were able to optimize the PV surface area.

Keywords: gallium arsenide (GaAs), optimization, sustainable building, GaAs solar cells

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Authors: Mohd Javaid, Shahbaz Khan, Abid Haleem

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Purpose: Large numbers of 3D printing technologies are now available for sophisticated applications in different fields. Additive manufacturing has established its dominance in design, development, and customisation of the product. In the era of developing technologies, there is a need to identify the appropriate technology for different application. In order to fulfil this need, two widely used printing technologies such as Fused Deposition Modeling (FDM), and Binding-Jet 3D Printing are compared for effective utilisation in the current scenario for different applications. Methodology: Systematic literature review conducted for both technologies with applications and associated factors enabling for the same. Appropriate MCDM tool is used to compare critical factors for both the technologies. Findings: Both technologies have their potential and capabilities to provide better direction to the industry. Additionally, this paper is helpful to develop a decision support system for the proper selection of technologies according to their continuum of applications and associated research and development capability. The vital issue is raw materials, and research-based material development is key to the sustainability of the developed technologies. FDM is a low-cost technology which provides high strength product as compared to binding jet technology. Researcher and companies can take benefits of this study to achieve the required applications in lesser resources. Limitations: Study has undertaken the comparison with the opinion of experts, which may not always be free from bias, and some own limitations of each technology. Originality: Comparison between these technologies will help to identify best-suited technology as per the customer requirements. It also provides development in this different field as per their extensive capability where these technologies can be successfully adopted. Conclusion: FDM and binding jet technology play an active role in industrial development. These help to assist the customisation and production of personalised parts cost-effectively. So, there is a need to understand how these technologies can provide these developments rapidly. These technologies help in easy changes or in making revised versions of the product, which is not easily possible in the conventional manufacturing system. High machine cost, the requirement of skilled human resources, low surface finish, and mechanical strength of product and material changing option is the main limitation of this technology. However, these limitations vary from technology to technology. In the future, these technologies are to be commercially viable for efficient usage in direct manufacturing of varied parts.

Keywords: 3D printing, comparison, fused deposition modeling, FDM, binding jet technology

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Authors: Xinyuan Y. Song, Kai Kang

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Joint models for analyzing longitudinal and survival data are widely used to investigate the relationship between a failure time process and time-variant predictors. A common assumption in conventional joint models in the survival analysis literature is that all predictors are observable. However, this assumption may not always be supported because unobservable traits, namely, latent variables, which are indirectly observable and should be measured through multiple observed variables, are commonly encountered in the medical, behavioral, and financial research settings. In this study, a joint modeling approach to deal with this feature is proposed. The proposed model comprises three parts. The first part is a dynamic factor analysis model for characterizing latent variables through multiple observed indicators over time. The second part is a random coefficient trajectory model for describing the individual trajectories of latent variables. The third part is a proportional hazard model for examining the effects of time-invariant predictors and the longitudinal trajectories of time-variant latent risk factors on hazards of interest. A Bayesian approach coupled with a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to perform statistical inference. An application of the proposed joint model to a study on the Alzheimer's disease neuroimaging Initiative is presented.

Keywords: Bayesian analysis, joint model, longitudinal data, time-to-event data

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Authors: Khawar Naeem, Adel Elomri, Adel Zghibi

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Contamination leakage from municipal solid waste (MSW) landfills is a serious environmental challenge that poses a threat to interconnected ecosystems. It not only contaminates the soil of the saturated zone, but it also percolates down the earth and contaminates the groundwater (GW). In this concise literature review, an effort is made to understand the environmental hazards posed by this contamination to the soil and groundwater, the type of contamination, and possible solutions proposed in the literature. In the study’s second phase, the MSW management practices are explored as the landfill site dump rate and type of MSW into the landfill site directly depend on the MSW management strategies. Case studies from multiple developed and underdeveloped countries are presented, and the complex MSW management system is investigated from an operational perspective to minimize the contamination of GW. One of the significant tools used in the literature was found to be Systems Dynamic Modeling (SDM), which is a simulation-based approach to study the stakeholder’s approach. By employing the SDM approach, the risk of GW contamination can be reduced by devising effective MSW management policies, ultimately resulting in water resource sustainability and regional sustainable development.

Keywords: groundwater contamination, environmental risk, municipal solid waste management, system dynamic modeling, water resource sustainability, sustainable development

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Authors: K. Julia Rose Mary, Victor Arokia Doss

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Electrical and chemical stimulations up-regulate phosphorylaion of CREB, a transcriptional factor that induces its target gene production for memory consolidation and Late Long-Term Potentiation (L-LTP) in CA1 region of the hippocampus. L-LTP requires complex interactions among second-messenger signaling cascade molecules such as cAMP, CAMKII, CAMKIV, MAPK, RSK, PKA, all of which converge to phosphorylate CREB which along with CBP induces the transcription of target genes involved in memory consolidation. A differential equation based model for L-LTP representing stimulus-mediated activation of downstream mediators which confirms the steep, supralinear stimulus-response effects of activation and inhibition was used. The same was extended to accommodate the inhibitory effect of the Inducible cAMP Early Repressor (ICER). ICER is the natural inducible CREB antagonist represses CRE-Mediated gene transcription involved in long-term plasticity for learning and memory. After verifying the sensitivity and robustness of the model, we had simulated it with various empirical levels of repressor concentration to analyse their effect on the gene induction. The model appears to predict the regulatory dynamics of repression on the L-LTP and agrees with the experimental values. The flux data obtained in the simulations demonstrate various aspects of equilibrium between the gene induction and repression.

Keywords: CREB, L-LTP, mathematical modeling, simulation

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Authors: Sofia Meacham

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In this abstract paper, the Domain-Specific Languages (DSL) evaluation will be presented based on existing literature and years of experience developing DSLs for several domains. The domains we worked on ranged from AI, business applications, and finances/accounting to health. In general, DSLs have been utilised in many domains to provide tailored and efficient solutions to address specific problems. Although they are a reputable method among highly technical circles and have also been used by non-technical experts with success, according to our knowledge, there isn’t a commonly accepted method for evaluating them. There are some methods that define criteria that are adaptations from the general software engineering quality criteria. Other literature focuses on the DSL usability aspect of evaluation and applies methods such as Human-Computer Interaction (HCI) and goal modeling. All these approaches are either hard to introduce, such as the goal modeling, or seem to ignore the domain-specific focus of the DSLs. From our experience, the DSLs have domain-specificity in their core, and consequently, the methods to evaluate them should also include domain-specific criteria in their core. The domain-specific criteria would require synergy between the domain experts and the DSL developers in the same way that DSLs cannot be developed without domain-experts involvement. Methods from agile and other software engineering practices, such as co-creation workshops, should be further emphasised and explored to facilitate this direction. Concluding, our latest experience and plans for DSLs evaluation will be presented and open for discussion.

Keywords: domain-specific languages, DSL evaluation, DSL usability, DSL quality metrics

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Authors: Esra Zengin, Sinan Akkar

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Reliable and accurate prediction of nonlinear structural response requires specification of appropriate earthquake ground motions to be used in nonlinear time history analysis. The current research has mainly focused on selection and manipulation of real earthquake records that can be seen as the most critical step in the performance based seismic design and assessment of the structures. Utilizing amplitude scaled ground motions that matches with the target spectra is commonly used technique for the estimation of nonlinear structural response. Representative ground motion ensembles are selected to match target spectrum such as scenario-based spectrum derived from ground motion prediction equations, Uniform Hazard Spectrum (UHS), Conditional Mean Spectrum (CMS) or Conditional Spectrum (CS). Different sets of criteria exist among those developed methodologies to select and scale ground motions with the objective of obtaining robust estimation of the structural performance. This study presents ground motion selection and scaling procedure that considers the spectral variability at target demand with the level of ground motion dispersion. The proposed methodology provides a set of ground motions whose response spectra match target median and corresponding variance within a specified period interval. The efficient and simple algorithm is used to assemble the ground motion sets. The scaling stage is based on the minimization of the error between scaled median and the target spectra where the dispersion of the earthquake shaking is preserved along the period interval. The impact of the spectral variability on nonlinear response distribution is investigated at the level of inelastic single degree of freedom systems. In order to see the effect of different selection and scaling methodologies on fragility curve estimations, results are compared with those obtained by CMS-based scaling methodology. The variability in fragility curves due to the consideration of dispersion in ground motion selection process is also examined.

Keywords: ground motion selection, scaling, uncertainty, fragility curve

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Authors: Vikrant Gupta, Amrit Goswami

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The fixed income market forms the basis of the modern financial market. All other assets in financial markets derive their value from the bond market. Owing to its over-the-counter nature, corporate bonds have relatively less data publicly available and thus is researched upon far less compared to Equities. Bond price prediction is a complex financial time series forecasting problem and is considered very crucial in the domain of finance. The bond prices are highly volatile and full of noise which makes it very difficult for traditional statistical time-series models to capture the complexity in series patterns which leads to inefficient forecasts. To overcome the inefficiencies of statistical models, various machine learning techniques were initially used in the literature for more accurate forecasting of time-series. However, simple machine learning methods such as linear regression, support vectors, random forests fail to provide efficient results when tested on highly complex sequences such as stock prices and bond prices. hence to capture these intricate sequence patterns, various deep learning-based methodologies have been discussed in the literature. In this study, a recurrent neural network-based deep learning model using long short term networks for prediction of corporate bond prices has been discussed. Long Short Term networks (LSTM) have been widely used in the literature for various sequence learning tasks in various domains such as machine translation, speech recognition, etc. In recent years, various studies have discussed the effectiveness of LSTMs in forecasting complex time-series sequences and have shown promising results when compared to other methodologies. LSTMs are a special kind of recurrent neural networks which are capable of learning long term dependencies due to its memory function which traditional neural networks fail to capture. In this study, a simple LSTM, Stacked LSTM and a Masked LSTM based model has been discussed with respect to varying input sequences (three days, seven days and 14 days). In order to facilitate faster learning and to gradually decompose the complexity of bond price sequence, an Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) has been used, which has resulted in accuracy improvement of the standalone LSTM model. With a variety of Technical Indicators and EMD decomposed time series, Masked LSTM outperformed the other two counterparts in terms of prediction accuracy. To benchmark the proposed model, the results have been compared with traditional time series models (ARIMA), shallow neural networks and above discussed three different LSTM models. In summary, our results show that the use of LSTM models provide more accurate results and should be explored more within the asset management industry.

Keywords: bond prices, long short-term memory, time series forecasting, empirical mode decomposition

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Authors: Tomilola J. Ajayi

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A category of nanovalves system containing the α-cyclodextrin (α-CD) ring on a stalk tethered to the pores of mesoporous silica nanoparticles (MSN) is theoretically and computationally modelled. This functions to control opening and blocking of the MSN pores for efficient targeted drug release system. Modeling of the nanovalves is based on the interaction between α-CD and the stalk (p-anisidine) in relation to pH variation. Conformational analysis was carried out prior to the formation of the inclusion complex, to find the global minimum of both neutral and protonated stalk. B3LYP/6-311G**(d, p) basis set was employed to attain all theoretically possible conformers of the stalk. Six conformers were taken into considerations, and the dihedral angle (θ) around the reference atom (N17) of the p-anisidine stalk was scanned from 0° to 360° at 5° intervals. The most stable conformer was obtained at a dihedral angle of 85.3° and was fully optimized at B3LYP/6-311G**(d, p) level of theory. The most stable conformer obtained from conformational analysis was used as the starting structure to create the inclusion complexes. 9 complexes were formed by moving the neutral guest into the α-CD cavity along the Z-axis in 1 Å stepwise while keeping the distance between dummy atom and OMe oxygen atom on the stalk restricted. The dummy atom and the carbon atoms on α-CD structure were equally restricted for orientation A (see Scheme 1). The generated structures at each step were optimized with B3LYP/6-311G**(d, p) methods to determine their energy minima. Protonation of the nitrogen atom on the stalk occurs at acidic pH, leading to unsatisfactory host-guest interaction in the nanogate; hence there is dethreading. High required interaction energy and conformational change are theoretically established to drive the release of α-CD at a certain pH. The release was found to occur between pH 5-7 which agreed with reported experimental results. In this study, we applied the theoretical model for the prediction of the experimentally observed pH-responsive nanovalves which enables blocking, and opening of mesoporous silica nanoparticles pores for targeted drug release system. Our results show that two major factors are responsible for the cargo release at acidic pH. The higher interaction energy needed for the complex/nanovalve formation to exist after protonation as well as conformational change upon protonation are driving the release due to slight pH change from 5 to 7.

Keywords: nanovalves, nanogate, mesoporous silica nanoparticles, cargo

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Authors: Mehmet Erdi Korkmaz, Mustafa Günay

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Nowadays, grinding is frequently replaced with hard turning for reducing set up time and higher accuracy. This paper focused on mathematical modeling of average surface roughness (Ra) in hard turning of AISI L2 grade (DIN 1.2210) cold work tool steel with ceramic tools. The steel was hardened to 60±1 HRC after the heat treatment process. Cutting speed, feed rate, depth of cut and tool nose radius was chosen as the cutting conditions. The uncoated ceramic cutting tools were used in the machining experiments. The machining experiments were performed according to Taguchi L27 orthogonal array on CNC lathe. Ra values were calculated by averaging three roughness values obtained from three different points of machined surface. The influences of cutting conditions on surface roughness were evaluated as statistical and experimental. The analysis of variance (ANOVA) with 95% confidence level was applied for statistical analysis of experimental results. Finally, mathematical models were developed using the artificial neural networks (ANN). ANOVA results show that feed rate is the dominant factor affecting surface roughness, followed by tool nose radius and cutting speed.

Keywords: ANN, hard turning, DIN 1.2210, surface roughness, Taguchi method

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Authors: Andrea Tundis, Carlos García Cordero, Rolf Egert, Alfredo Garro, Max Mühlhäuser

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Resilience is an important system property that relies on the ability of a system to automatically recover from a degraded state so as to continue providing its services. Resilient systems have the means of detecting faults and failures with the added capability of automatically restoring their normal operations. Mastering resilience in the domain of Cyber-Physical Systems is challenging due to the interdependence of hybrid hardware and software components, along with physical limitations, laws, regulations and standards, among others. In order to overcome these challenges, this paper presents a modeling approach, based on the concept of Dynamic Cells, tailored to the management of Smart Grids. Additionally, a heuristic algorithm that works on top of the proposed modeling approach, to find resilient configurations, has been defined and implemented. More specifically, the model supports a flexible representation of Smart Grids and the algorithm is able to manage, at different abstraction levels, the resource consumption of individual grid elements on the presence of failures and faults. Finally, the proposal is evaluated in a test scenario where the effectiveness of such approach, when dealing with complex scenarios where adequate solutions are difficult to find, is shown.

Keywords: cyber-physical systems, energy management, optimization, smart grids, self-healing, resilience, security

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Authors: Gyoomi Kim, Jiyoung Bae

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The purpose of this study was to propose a framework that verifies the structural relationships among students’ use of digital English learning strategy (DELS), affective domains, and their individual variables. The study developed a hypothetical model based on previous studies on language learning strategy use as well as digital language learning. The participants were 720 Korean high school students and 430 university students. The instrument was a self-response questionnaire that contained 70 question items based on Oxford’s SILL (Strategy Inventory for Language Learning) as well as the previous studies on language learning strategies in digital learning environment in order to measure DELS and affective domains. The collected data were analyzed through structural equation modeling (SEM). This study used quantitative data analysis procedures: Explanatory factor analysis (EFA) and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). Firstly, the EFA was conducted in order to verify the hypothetical model; the factor analysis was conducted preferentially to identify the underlying relationships between measured variables of DELS and the affective domain in the EFA process. The hypothetical model was established with six indicators of learning strategies (memory, cognitive, compensation, metacognitive, affective, and social strategies) under the latent variable of the use of DELS. In addition, the model included four indicators (self-confidence, interests, self-regulation, and attitude toward digital learning) under the latent variable of learners’ affective domain. Secondly, the CFA was used to determine the suitability of data and research models, so all data from the present study was used to assess model fits. Lastly, the model also included individual learner factors as covariates and five constructs selected were learners’ gender, the level of English proficiency, the duration of English learning, the period of using digital devices, and previous experience of digital English learning. The results verified from SEM analysis proposed a theoretical model that showed the structural relationships between Korean students’ use of DELS and their affective domains. Therefore, the results of this study help ESL/EFL teachers understand how learners use and develop appropriate learning strategies in digital learning contexts. The pedagogical implication and suggestions for the further study will be also presented.

Keywords: Digital English Learning Strategy, DELS, individual variables, learners' affective domains, Structural Equation Modeling, SEM

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Authors: Wang Yichen, Haruka Yamashita

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In recent years, in the field of sports, decision making such as member in the game and strategy of the game based on then analysis of the accumulated sports data are widely attempted. In fact, in the NBA basketball league where the world's highest level players gather, to win the games, teams analyze the data using various statistical techniques. However, it is difficult to analyze the game data for each play such as the ball tracking or motion of the players in the game, because the situation of the game changes rapidly, and the structure of the data should be complicated. Therefore, it is considered that the analysis method for real time game play data is proposed. In this research, we propose an analytical model for "determining the optimal lineup composition" using the real time play data, which is considered to be difficult for all coaches. In this study, because replacing the entire lineup is too complicated, and the actual question for the replacement of players is "whether or not the lineup should be changed", and “whether or not Small Ball lineup is adopted”. Therefore, we propose an analytical model for the optimal player selection problem based on Small Ball lineups. In basketball, we can accumulate scoring data for each play, which indicates a player's contribution to the game, and the scoring data can be considered as a time series data. In order to compare the importance of players in different situations and lineups, we combine RNN (Recurrent Neural Network) model, which can analyze time series data, and NN (Neural Network) model, which can analyze the situation on the field, to build the prediction model of score. This model is capable to identify the current optimal lineup for different situations. In this research, we collected all the data of accumulated data of NBA from 2019-2020. Then we apply the method to the actual basketball play data to verify the reliability of the proposed model.

Keywords: recurrent neural network, players lineup, basketball data, decision making model

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Authors: Nathaniel Bayode Eniolorunda, Murtala Abubakar Gada, Sheikh Danjuma Abubakar

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The challenge of erosion in the study area is persistent, suggesting the need for a better understanding of the mechanisms that drive it. Thus, the study evolved a predictive erosion model (RUSLE_Sok), deploying Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographical Information System (GIS) tools. The nature and pattern of the factors of erosion were characterized, while soil losses were quantified. Factors’ impacts were also measured, and the morphometry of gullies was described. Data on the five factors of RUSLE and distances to settlements, rivers and roads (K, R, LS, P, C, DS DRd and DRv) were combined and processed following standard RS and GIS algorithms. Harmonized World Soil Data (HWSD), Shuttle Radar Topographical Mission (SRTM) image, Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS), Sentinel-2 image accessed and processed within the Google Earth Engine, road network and settlements were the data combined and calibrated into the factors for erosion modeling. A gully morphometric study was conducted at some purposively selected sites. Factors of soil erosion showed low, moderate, to high patterns. Soil losses ranged from 0 to 32.81 tons/ha/year, classified into low (97.6%), moderate (0.2%), severe (1.1%) and very severe (1.05%) forms. The multiple regression analysis shows that factors statistically significantly predicted soil loss, F (8, 153) = 55.663, p < .0005. Except for the C-Factor with a negative coefficient, all other factors were positive, with contributions in the order of LS>C>R>P>DRv>K>DS>DRd. Gullies are generally from less than 100m to about 3km in length. Average minimum and maximum depths at gully heads are 0.6 and 1.2m, while those at mid-stream are 1 and 1.9m, respectively. The minimum downstream depth is 1.3m, while that for the maximum is 4.7m. Deeper gullies exist in proximity to rivers. With minimum and maximum gully elevation values ranging between 229 and 338m and an average slope of about 3.2%, the study area is relatively flat. The study concluded that major erosion influencers in the study area are topography and vegetation cover and that the RUSLE_Sok well predicted soil loss more effectively than ordinary RUSLE. The adoption of conservation measures such as tree planting and contour ploughing on sloppy farmlands was recommended.

Keywords: RUSLE_Sok, Sokoto, google earth engine, sentinel-2, erosion

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Authors: Ahmed Hammad, Yehia Abdel-Nasser, Mohamed Shamma

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The main configuration of ship construction consists of standard and fabricated stiffening members which are commonly used in shipbuilding such as fabricated T-sections. During the welding process, the non-uniform heating and rapid cooling lead to the inevitable presence of out-of-plane distortion and welding induced residual stresses. Because of these imperfections, the fabricated structural members may not attain their design load to be carried. The removal of these imperfections will require extra man-hours. In the present work, controlling these imperfections has been investigated at both design and fabrication stages. A typical fabricated T-girder is selected to investigate the problem of these imperfections using double-side welding. A numerical simulation based on finite element (FE) modeling has been used to investigate the effect of different parameters of the selected fabricated T-girder such as geometrical properties and welding sequences on the magnitude of welding imperfections. FE results were compared with the results of experimental model of a double-side fillet weld. The present work concludes that: Firstly, in the design stage, the optimum geometry of the fabricated T- girder is determined based on minimum steel weight and out- of- plane distortion. Secondly, in the fabrication stage, the best welding sequence is determined on the basis of minimum welding out- of- plane distortion.

Keywords: fabricated T-girder, FEM, out-of-plane distortion, section modulus, welding residual stresses

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Authors: L. Khalfa, M. Bagane, M. L. Cervera, S. Najjar

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The aim of this work is to present a low cost adsorbent for removing toxic heavy metals from aqueous solutions. Therefore, we are interested to investigate the efficiency of natural clay minerals collected from south Tunisia and their modified form using sulfuric acid in the removal of toxic metal ions: Zn(II) and Pb(II) from synthetic waste water solutions. The obtained results indicate that metal uptake is pH-dependent and maximum removal was detected to occur at pH 6. Adsorption equilibrium is very rapid and it was achieved after 90 min for both metal ions studied. The kinetics results show that the pseudo-second-order model describes the adsorption and the intraparticle diffusion models are the limiting step. The treatment of natural clay with sulfuric acid creates more active sites and increases the surface area, so it showed an increase of the adsorbed quantities of lead and zinc in single and binary systems. The competitive adsorption study showed that the uptake of lead was inhibited in the presence of 10 mg/L of zinc. An antagonistic binary adsorption mechanism was observed. These results revealed that clay is an effective natural material for removing lead and zinc in single and binary systems from aqueous solution.

Keywords: heavy metal, activated clay, kinetic study, competitive adsorption, modeling

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Authors: Fadi Al-Badour, Nesar Merah, Abdelrahman Shuaib, Abdelaziz Bazoune

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In the current work, a Coupled Eulerian Lagrangian (CEL) model is developed to simulate the friction stir welding (FSW) process of dissimilar Aluminum alloys (Al 6061-T6 with Al 5083-O). The model predicts volumetric defects, material flow, developed temperatures, and stresses in addition to tool reaction loads. Simulation of welding phase is performed by employing a control volume approach, whereas the welding speed is defined as inflow and outflow over Eulerian domain boundaries. Only material softening due to inelastic heat generation is considered and material behavior is assumed to obey Johnson-Cook’s Model. The model was validated using published experimentally measured temperatures, at similar welding conditions, and by qualitative comparison of dissimilar weld microstructure. The FE results showed that most of developed temperatures were below melting and that the bulk of the deformed material in solid state. The temperature gradient on AL6061-T6 side was found to be less than that of Al 5083-O. Changing the position Al 6061-T6 from retreating (Ret.) side to advancing (Adv.) side led to a decrease in maximum process temperature and strain rate. This could be due to the higher resistance of Al 6061-T6 to flow as compared to Al 5083-O.

Keywords: friction stir welding, dissimilar metals, finite element modeling, coupled Eulerian Lagrangian Analysis

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Authors: Reza Safdari, Goli Arji, Robab Abdolkhani Maryam zahmatkeshan

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Background and purpose: Cardiovascular diseases are among the most common diseases in all societies. The most important step in minimizing myocardial infarction and its complications is to minimize its risk factors. The amount of medical data is increasingly growing. Medical data mining has a great potential for transforming these data into information. Using data mining techniques to generate predictive models for identifying those at risk for reducing the effects of the disease is very helpful. The present study aimed to collect data related to risk factors of heart infarction from patients’ medical record and developed predicting models using data mining algorithm. Methods: The present work was an analytical study conducted on a database containing 350 records. Data were related to patients admitted to Shahid Rajaei specialized cardiovascular hospital, Iran, in 2011. Data were collected using a four-sectioned data collection form. Data analysis was performed using SPSS and Clementine version 12. Seven predictive algorithms and one algorithm-based model for predicting association rules were applied to the data. Accuracy, precision, sensitivity, specificity, as well as positive and negative predictive values were determined and the final model was obtained. Results: five parameters, including hypertension, DLP, tobacco smoking, diabetes, and A+ blood group, were the most critical risk factors of myocardial infarction. Among the models, the neural network model was found to have the highest sensitivity, indicating its ability to successfully diagnose the disease. Conclusion: Risk prediction models have great potentials in facilitating the management of a patient with a specific disease. Therefore, health interventions or change in their life style can be conducted based on these models for improving the health conditions of the individuals at risk.

Keywords: decision trees, neural network, myocardial infarction, Data Mining

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Authors: Talal Al-Bazali, S. Mohammad

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The threshold capillary pressure of shale caprocks is an important parameter in CO₂ storage modeling. A correct estimation of the threshold capillary pressure is not only essential for CO₂ storage modeling but also important to assess the overall economical and environmental impact of the design process. A standard step by step approach has to be used to measure the threshold capillary pressure of shale and non-wetting fluids at different temperatures. The objective of this work is to assess the impact of high temperature on the threshold capillary pressure of four different shales as they interacted with four different oil based muds, air, CO₂, N₂, and methane. This study shows that the threshold capillary pressure of shale and non-wetting fluid is highly impacted by temperature. An empirical correlation for the dependence of threshold capillary pressure on temperature when different shales interacted with oil based muds and gasses has been developed. This correlation shows that the threshold capillary pressure decreases exponentially as the temperature increases. In this correlation, an experimental constant (α) appears, and this constant may depend on the properties of shale and non-wetting fluid. The value for α factor was found to be higher for gasses than for oil based muds. This is consistent with our intuition since the interfacial tension for gasses is higher than those for oil based muds. The author believes that measured threshold capillary pressure at ambient temperature is misleading and could yield higher values than those encountered at in situ conditions. Therefore one must correct for the impact of temperature when measuring threshold capillary pressure of shale at ambient temperature.

Keywords: capillary pressure, shale, temperature, thresshold

Procedia PDF Downloads 365

Authors: Shiri Elisheva Decktor, Sharon Hornstein

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Highway merges and unmarked junctions are key components in any urban road network, which can act as bottlenecks and create traffic disruption. Inefficient highway merges may trigger traffic instabilities such as stop-and-go waves, pose safety conditions and lead to longer journey times. These phenomena occur spontaneously if the average vehicle density exceeds a certain critical value. This study focuses on modeling the traffic using a microscopic traffic flow model. A hybrid traffic model, which combines human-driven and controlled vehicles is assumed. The controlled vehicles obey different driving policies when approaching the merge, or in the vicinity of other vehicles. We developed a co-simulation model in SUMO (Simulation of Urban Mobility), in which the human-driven cars are modeled using the IDM model, and the controlled cars are modeled using a dedicated controller. The scenario chosen for this study is a closed track with one merge and one exit, which could be later implemented using a scaled infrastructure on our lab setup. This will enable us to benchmark the results of this study obtained in simulation, to comparable results in similar conditions in the lab. The metrics chosen for the comparison of the performance of our algorithm on the overall traffic conditions include the average speed, wait time near the merge, and throughput after the merge, measured under different travel demand conditions (low, medium, and heavy traffic).

Keywords: highway merges, traffic modeling, SUMO, driving policy

Procedia PDF Downloads 102

Authors: Mahdieh Jajroudi

Abstract:

Developing a pharmacokinetic model for the neuroendocrine tumors therapy agent 177Lu-DOTATATE in nude mice bearing AR42J rat pancreatic tumor to investigate and evaluate the behavior of the complex was the main purpose of this study. The utilization of compartmental analysis permits the mathematical differencing of tissues and organs to become acquainted with the concentration of activity in each fraction of interest. Biodistribution studies are onerous and troublesome to perform in humans, but such data can be obtained facilely in rodents. A physiologically based pharmacokinetic model for scaling up activity concentration in particular organs versus time was developed. The mathematical model exerts physiological parameters including organ volumes, blood flow rates, and vascular permabilities; the compartments (organs) are connected anatomically. This allows the use of scale-up techniques to forecast new complex distribution in humans' each organ. The concentration of the radiopharmaceutical in various organs was measured at different times. The temporal behavior of biodistribution of 177Lu labeled somatostatin analogues was modeled and drawn as function of time. Conclusion: The variation of pharmaceutical concentration in all organs is characterized with summation of six to nine exponential terms and it approximates our experimental data with precision better than 1%.

Keywords: biodistribution modeling, compartmental analysis, 177Lu labeled somatostatin analogues, neuroendocrine tumors

Procedia PDF Downloads 361