Search results for: generalized random graphs
2910 Finding the Elastic Field in an Arbitrary Anisotropic Media by Implementing Accurate Generalized Gaussian Quadrature Solution
Authors: Hossein Kabir, Amir Hossein Hassanpour Mati-Kolaie
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In the current study, the elastic field in an anisotropic elastic media is determined by implementing a general semi-analytical method. In this specific methodology, the displacement field is computed as a sum of finite functions with unknown coefficients. These aforementioned functions satisfy exactly both the homogeneous and inhomogeneous boundary conditions in the proposed media. It is worth mentioning that the unknown coefficients are determined by implementing the principle of minimum potential energy. The numerical integration is implemented by employing the Generalized Gaussian Quadrature solution. Furthermore, with the aid of the calculated unknown coefficients, the displacement field, as well as the other parameters of the elastic field, are obtainable as well. Finally, the comparison of the previous analytical method with the current semi-analytical method proposes the efficacy of the present methodology.Keywords: anisotropic elastic media, semi-analytical method, elastic field, generalized gaussian quadrature solution
Procedia PDF Downloads 3092909 Segmentation of Liver Using Random Forest Classifier
Authors: Gajendra Kumar Mourya, Dinesh Bhatia, Akash Handique, Sunita Warjri, Syed Achaab Amir
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Nowadays, Medical imaging has become an integral part of modern healthcare. Abdominal CT images are an invaluable mean for abdominal organ investigation and have been widely studied in the recent years. Diagnosis of liver pathologies is one of the major areas of current interests in the field of medical image processing and is still an open problem. To deeply study and diagnose the liver, segmentation of liver is done to identify which part of the liver is mostly affected. Manual segmentation of the liver in CT images is time-consuming and suffers from inter- and intra-observer differences. However, automatic or semi-automatic computer aided segmentation of the Liver is a challenging task due to inter-patient Liver shape and size variability. In this paper, we present a technique for automatic segmenting the liver from CT images using Random Forest Classifier. Random forests or random decision forests are an ensemble learning method for classification that operate by constructing a multitude of decision trees at training time and outputting the class that is the mode of the classes of the individual trees. After comparing with various other techniques, it was found that Random Forest Classifier provide a better segmentation results with respect to accuracy and speed. We have done the validation of our results using various techniques and it shows above 89% accuracy in all the cases.Keywords: CT images, image validation, random forest, segmentation
Procedia PDF Downloads 3012908 Duality in Multiobjective Nonlinear Programming under Generalized Second Order (F, b, φ, ρ, θ)− Univex Functions
Authors: Meraj Ali Khan, Falleh R. Al-Solamy
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In the present paper, second order duality for multiobjective nonlinear programming are investigated under the second order generalized (F, b, φ, ρ, θ)− univex functions. The weak, strong and converse duality theorems are proved. Further, we also illustrated an example of (F, b, φ, ρ, θ)− univex functions. Results obtained in this paper extend some previously known results of multiobjective nonlinear programming in the literature.Keywords: duality, multiobjective programming, univex functions, univex
Procedia PDF Downloads 3492907 Approximate Solution of Some Mixed Boundary Value Problems of the Generalized Theory of Couple-Stress Thermo-Elasticity
Authors: Manana Chumburidze, David Lekveishvili
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We have considered the harmonic oscillations and general dynamic (pseudo oscillations) systems of theory generalized Green-Lindsay of couple-stress thermo-elasticity for isotropic, homogeneous elastic media. Approximate solution of some mixed boundary value problems for finite domain, bounded by the some closed surface are constructed.Keywords: the couple-stress thermoelasticity, boundary value problems, dynamic problems, approximate solution
Procedia PDF Downloads 5012906 Three-Stage Multivariate Stratified Sample Surveys with Probabilistic Cost Constraint and Random Variance
Authors: Sanam Haseen, Abdul Bari
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In this paper a three stage multivariate programming problem with random survey cost and variances as random variables has been formulated as a non-linear stochastic programming problem. The problem has been converted into an equivalent deterministic form using chance constraint programming and modified E-modeling. An empirical study of the problem has been done at the end of the paper using R-simulation.Keywords: chance constraint programming, modified E-model, stochastic programming, stratified sample surveys, three stage sample surveys
Procedia PDF Downloads 4512905 On Projective Invariants of Spherically Symmetric Finsler Spaces in Rn
Authors: Nasrin Sadeghzadeh
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In this paper we study projective invariants of spherically symmetric Finsler metrics in Rn. We find the necessary and sufficient conditions for the metrics to be Douglas and Generalized Douglas-Weyl (GDW) types. Also we show that two classes of GDW and Douglas spherically symmetric Finsler metrics coincide.Keywords: spherically symmetric finsler metrics in Rn, finsler metrics, douglas metric, generalized Douglas-Weyl (GDW) metric
Procedia PDF Downloads 3502904 Estimation of a Finite Population Mean under Random Non Response Using Improved Nadaraya and Watson Kernel Weights
Authors: Nelson Bii, Christopher Ouma, John Odhiambo
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Non-response is a potential source of errors in sample surveys. It introduces bias and large variance in the estimation of finite population parameters. Regression models have been recognized as one of the techniques of reducing bias and variance due to random non-response using auxiliary data. In this study, it is assumed that random non-response occurs in the survey variable in the second stage of cluster sampling, assuming full auxiliary information is available throughout. Auxiliary information is used at the estimation stage via a regression model to address the problem of random non-response. In particular, the auxiliary information is used via an improved Nadaraya-Watson kernel regression technique to compensate for random non-response. The asymptotic bias and mean squared error of the estimator proposed are derived. Besides, a simulation study conducted indicates that the proposed estimator has smaller values of the bias and smaller mean squared error values compared to existing estimators of finite population mean. The proposed estimator is also shown to have tighter confidence interval lengths at a 95% coverage rate. The results obtained in this study are useful, for instance, in choosing efficient estimators of the finite population mean in demographic sample surveys.Keywords: mean squared error, random non-response, two-stage cluster sampling, confidence interval lengths
Procedia PDF Downloads 1272903 Blocking of Random Chat Apps at Home Routers for Juvenile Protection in South Korea
Authors: Min Jin Kwon, Seung Won Kim, Eui Yeon Kim, Haeyoung Lee
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Numerous anonymous chat apps that help people to connect with random strangers have been released in South Korea. However, they become a serious problem for young people since young people often use them for channels of prostitution or sexual violence. Although ISPs in South Korea are responsible for making inappropriate content inaccessible on their networks, they do not block traffic of random chat apps since 1) the use of random chat apps is entirely legal. 2) it is reported that they use HTTP proxy blocking so that non-HTTP traffic cannot be blocked. In this paper, we propose a service model that can block random chat apps at home routers. A service provider manages a blacklist that contains blocked apps’ information. Home routers that subscribe the service filter the traffic of the apps out using deep packet inspection. We have implemented a prototype of the proposed model, including a centralized server providing the blacklist, a Raspberry Pi-based home router that can filter traffic of the apps out, and an Android app used by the router’s administrator to locally customize the blacklist.Keywords: deep packet inspection, internet filtering, juvenile protection, technical blocking
Procedia PDF Downloads 3362902 A Combinatorial Representation for the Invariant Measure of Diffusion Processes on Metric Graphs
Authors: Michele Aleandri, Matteo Colangeli, Davide Gabrielli
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We study a generalization to a continuous setting of the classical Markov chain tree theorem. In particular, we consider an irreducible diffusion process on a metric graph. The unique invariant measure has an atomic component on the vertices and an absolutely continuous part on the edges. We show that the corresponding density at x can be represented by a normalized superposition of the weights associated to metric arborescences oriented toward the point x. A metric arborescence is a metric tree oriented towards its root. The weight of each oriented metric arborescence is obtained by the product of the exponential of integrals of the form ∫a/b², where b is the drift and σ² is the diffusion coefficient, along the oriented edges, for a weight for each node determined by the local orientation of the arborescence around the node and for the inverse of the diffusion coefficient at x. The metric arborescences are obtained by cutting the original metric graph along some edges.Keywords: diffusion processes, metric graphs, invariant measure, reversibility
Procedia PDF Downloads 1632901 Tabu Random Algorithm for Guiding Mobile Robots
Authors: Kevin Worrall, Euan McGookin
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The use of optimization algorithms is common across a large number of diverse fields. This work presents the use of a hybrid optimization algorithm applied to a mobile robot tasked with carrying out a search of an unknown environment. The algorithm is then applied to the multiple robots case, which results in a reduction in the time taken to carry out the search. The hybrid algorithm is a Random Search Algorithm fused with a Tabu mechanism. The work shows that the algorithm locates the desired points in a quicker time than a brute force search. The Tabu Random algorithm is shown to work within a simulated environment using a validated mathematical model. The simulation was run using three different environments with varying numbers of targets. As an algorithm, the Tabu Random is small, clear and can be implemented with minimal resources. The power of the algorithm is the speed at which it locates points of interest and the robustness to the number of robots involved. The number of robots can vary with no changes to the algorithm resulting in a flexible algorithm.Keywords: algorithms, control, multi-agent, search and rescue
Procedia PDF Downloads 2312900 Probability Sampling in Matched Case-Control Study in Drug Abuse
Authors: Surya R. Niraula, Devendra B Chhetry, Girish K. Singh, S. Nagesh, Frederick A. Connell
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Background: Although random sampling is generally considered to be the gold standard for population-based research, the majority of drug abuse research is based on non-random sampling despite the well-known limitations of this kind of sampling. Method: We compared the statistical properties of two surveys of drug abuse in the same community: one using snowball sampling of drug users who then identified “friend controls” and the other using a random sample of non-drug users (controls) who then identified “friend cases.” Models to predict drug abuse based on risk factors were developed for each data set using conditional logistic regression. We compared the precision of each model using bootstrapping method and the predictive properties of each model using receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves. Results: Analysis of 100 random bootstrap samples drawn from the snowball-sample data set showed a wide variation in the standard errors of the beta coefficients of the predictive model, none of which achieved statistical significance. One the other hand, bootstrap analysis of the random-sample data set showed less variation, and did not change the significance of the predictors at the 5% level when compared to the non-bootstrap analysis. Comparison of the area under the ROC curves using the model derived from the random-sample data set was similar when fitted to either data set (0.93, for random-sample data vs. 0.91 for snowball-sample data, p=0.35); however, when the model derived from the snowball-sample data set was fitted to each of the data sets, the areas under the curve were significantly different (0.98 vs. 0.83, p < .001). Conclusion: The proposed method of random sampling of controls appears to be superior from a statistical perspective to snowball sampling and may represent a viable alternative to snowball sampling.Keywords: drug abuse, matched case-control study, non-probability sampling, probability sampling
Procedia PDF Downloads 4852899 Programming with Grammars
Authors: Peter M. Maurer Maurer
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DGL is a context free grammar-based tool for generating random data. Many types of simulator input data require some computation to be placed in the proper format. For example, it might be necessary to generate ordered triples in which the third element is the sum of the first two elements, or it might be necessary to generate random numbers in some sorted order. Although DGL is universal in computational power, generating these types of data is extremely difficult. To overcome this problem, we have enhanced DGL to include features that permit direct computation within the structure of a context free grammar. The features have been implemented as special types of productions, preserving the context free flavor of DGL specifications.Keywords: DGL, Enhanced Context Free Grammars, Programming Constructs, Random Data Generation
Procedia PDF Downloads 1362898 Reliability Analysis of Construction Schedule Plan Based on Building Information Modelling
Authors: Lu Ren, You-Liang Fang, Yan-Gang Zhao
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In recent years, the application of BIM (Building Information Modelling) to construction schedule plan has been the focus of more and more researchers. In order to assess the reasonable level of the BIM-based construction schedule plan, that is whether the schedule can be completed on time, some researchers have introduced reliability theory to evaluate. In the process of evaluation, the uncertain factors affecting the construction schedule plan are regarded as random variables, and probability distributions of the random variables are assumed to be normal distribution, which is determined using two parameters evaluated from the mean and standard deviation of statistical data. However, in practical engineering, most of the uncertain influence factors are not normal random variables. So the evaluation results of the construction schedule plan will be unreasonable under the assumption that probability distributions of random variables submitted to the normal distribution. Therefore, in order to get a more reasonable evaluation result, it is necessary to describe the distribution of random variables more comprehensively. For this purpose, cubic normal distribution is introduced in this paper to describe the distribution of arbitrary random variables, which is determined by the first four moments (mean, standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis). In this paper, building the BIM model firstly according to the design messages of the structure and making the construction schedule plan based on BIM, then the cubic normal distribution is used to describe the distribution of the random variables due to the collecting statistical data of the random factors influencing construction schedule plan. Next the reliability analysis of the construction schedule plan based on BIM can be carried out more reasonably. Finally, the more accurate evaluation results can be given providing reference for the implementation of the actual construction schedule plan. In the last part of this paper, the more efficiency and accuracy of the proposed methodology for the reliability analysis of the construction schedule plan based on BIM are conducted through practical engineering case.Keywords: BIM, construction schedule plan, cubic normal distribution, reliability analysis
Procedia PDF Downloads 1322897 Chemical Bath Deposition Technique of CdS Used in Closed Space Sublimation of CdTe Solar Cell
Authors: Z. Mahmood, F. U. Babar, S. Naz, H. U. Rehman
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Cadmium Sulphide (CdS) was deposited on a Tec 15 glass substrate with the help of CBD (chemical bath deposition process) and then cadmium telluride CdTe was deposited on CdS with the help of CSS (closed spaced sublimation technique) for the construction of a solar cell. The thicknesses of all the deposited materials were measured with the help of Ellipsometry. The IV graphs were drawn in order to observe the current voltage output. The efficiency of the cell was graphed with the fill factor as well (graphs not given here). The efficiency came out to be approximately 16.5 % and the CIGS (copper-indium–gallium-selenide) maximum efficiency is 20 %. The efficiency of a solar cell can further be enhanced by adapting quality materials, good experimental devices and proper procedures. The grain size was analyzed with the help of scanning electron microscope using RBS (Rutherford backscattering spectroscopy).Keywords: Chemical Bath Deposition Technique (CBD), cadmium sulphide (CdS), CdTe, CSS (Closed Space Sublimation)
Procedia PDF Downloads 3542896 A New Concept for Deriving the Expected Value of Fuzzy Random Variables
Authors: Liang-Hsuan Chen, Chia-Jung Chang
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Fuzzy random variables have been introduced as an imprecise concept of numeric values for characterizing the imprecise knowledge. The descriptive parameters can be used to describe the primary features of a set of fuzzy random observations. In fuzzy environments, the expected values are usually represented as fuzzy-valued, interval-valued or numeric-valued descriptive parameters using various metrics. Instead of the concept of area metric that is usually adopted in the relevant studies, the numeric expected value is proposed by the concept of distance metric in this study based on two characters (fuzziness and randomness) of FRVs. Comparing with the existing measures, although the results show that the proposed numeric expected value is same with those using the different metric, if only triangular membership functions are used. However, the proposed approach has the advantages of intuitiveness and computational efficiency, when the membership functions are not triangular types. An example with three datasets is provided for verifying the proposed approach.Keywords: fuzzy random variables, distance measure, expected value, descriptive parameters
Procedia PDF Downloads 3382895 An Application of Sinc Function to Approximate Quadrature Integrals in Generalized Linear Mixed Models
Authors: Altaf H. Khan, Frank Stenger, Mohammed A. Hussein, Reaz A. Chaudhuri, Sameera Asif
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This paper discusses a novel approach to approximate quadrature integrals that arise in the estimation of likelihood parameters for the generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) as well as Bayesian methodology also requires computation of multidimensional integrals with respect to the posterior distributions in which computation are not only tedious and cumbersome rather in some situations impossible to find solutions because of singularities, irregular domains, etc. An attempt has been made in this work to apply Sinc function based quadrature rules to approximate intractable integrals, as there are several advantages of using Sinc based methods, for example: order of convergence is exponential, works very well in the neighborhood of singularities, in general quite stable and provide high accurate and double precisions estimates. The Sinc function based approach seems to be utilized first time in statistical domain to our knowledge, and it's viability and future scopes have been discussed to apply in the estimation of parameters for GLMM models as well as some other statistical areas.Keywords: generalized linear mixed model, likelihood parameters, qudarature, Sinc function
Procedia PDF Downloads 3862894 Radio Frequency Identification Encryption via Modified Two Dimensional Logistic Map
Authors: Hongmin Deng, Qionghua Wang
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A modified two dimensional (2D) logistic map based on cross feedback control is proposed. This 2D map exhibits more random chaotic dynamical properties than the classic one dimensional (1D) logistic map in the statistical characteristics analysis. So it is utilized as the pseudo-random (PN) sequence generator, where the obtained real-valued PN sequence is quantized at first, then applied to radio frequency identification (RFID) communication system in this paper. This system is experimentally validated on a cortex-M0 development board, which shows the effectiveness in key generation, the size of key space and security. At last, further cryptanalysis is studied through the test suite in the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST).Keywords: chaos encryption, logistic map, pseudo-random sequence, RFID
Procedia PDF Downloads 3882893 Balancing a Rotary Inverted Pendulum System Using Robust Generalized Dynamic Inverse: Design and Experiment
Authors: Ibrahim M. Mehedi, Uzair Ansari, Ubaid M. Al-Saggaf, Abdulrahman H. Bajodah
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This paper presents a methodology for balancing a rotary inverted pendulum system using Robust Generalized Dynamic Inversion (RGDI) under influence of parametric variations and external disturbances. In GDI control, dynamic constraints are formulated in the form of asymptotically stable differential equation which encapsulates the control objectives. The constraint differential equations are based on the deviation function of the angular position and its rates from their reference values. The constraint dynamics are inverted using Moore-Penrose Generalized Inverse (MPGI) to realize the control expression. The GDI singularity problem is addressed by augmenting a dynamic scale factor in the interpretation of MPGI which guarantee asymptotically stable position tracking. An additional term based on Sliding Mode Control is appended within GDI control to make it robust against parametric variations, disturbances and tracking performance deterioration due to generalized inversion scaling. The stability of the closed loop system is ensured by using positive definite Lyapunov energy function that guarantees semi-global practically stable position tracking. Numerical simulations are conducted on the dynamic model of rotary inverted pendulum system to analyze the efficiency of proposed RGDI control law. The comparative study is also presented, in which the performance of RGDI control is compared with Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR) and is verified through experiments. Numerical simulations and real-time experiments demonstrate better tracking performance abilities and robustness features of RGDI control in the presence of parametric uncertainties and disturbances.Keywords: generalized dynamic inversion, lyapunov stability, rotary inverted pendulum system, sliding mode control
Procedia PDF Downloads 1632892 [Keynote Speech]: Feature Selection and Predictive Modeling of Housing Data Using Random Forest
Authors: Bharatendra Rai
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Predictive data analysis and modeling involving machine learning techniques become challenging in presence of too many explanatory variables or features. Presence of too many features in machine learning is known to not only cause algorithms to slow down, but they can also lead to decrease in model prediction accuracy. This study involves housing dataset with 79 quantitative and qualitative features that describe various aspects people consider while buying a new house. Boruta algorithm that supports feature selection using a wrapper approach build around random forest is used in this study. This feature selection process leads to 49 confirmed features which are then used for developing predictive random forest models. The study also explores five different data partitioning ratios and their impact on model accuracy are captured using coefficient of determination (r-square) and root mean square error (rsme).Keywords: housing data, feature selection, random forest, Boruta algorithm, root mean square error
Procedia PDF Downloads 3132891 Solving Process Planning, Weighted Apparent Tardiness Cost Dispatching, and Weighted Processing plus Weight Due-Date Assignment Simultaneously Using a Hybrid Search
Authors: Halil Ibrahim Demir, Caner Erden, Abdullah Hulusi Kokcam, Mumtaz Ipek
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Process planning, scheduling, and due date assignment are three important manufacturing functions which are studied independently in literature. There are hundreds of works on IPPS and SWDDA problems but a few works on IPPSDDA problem. Integrating these three functions is very crucial due to the high relationship between them. Since the scheduling problem is in the NP-Hard problem class without any integration, an integrated problem is even harder to solve. This study focuses on the integration of these functions. Sum of weighted tardiness, earliness, and due date related costs are used as a penalty function. Random search and hybrid metaheuristics are used to solve the integrated problem. Marginal improvement in random search is very high in the early iterations and reduces enormously in later iterations. At that point directed search contribute to marginal improvement more than random search. In this study, random and genetic search methods are combined to find better solutions. Results show that overall performance becomes better as the integration level increases.Keywords: process planning, genetic algorithm, hybrid search, random search, weighted due-date assignment, weighted scheduling
Procedia PDF Downloads 3572890 Long Term Love Relationships Analyzed as a Dynamic System with Random Variations
Authors: Nini Johana Marín Rodríguez, William Fernando Oquendo Patino
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In this work, we model a coupled system where we explore the effects of steady and random behavior on a linear system like an extension of the classic Strogatz model. This is exemplified by modeling a couple love dynamics as a linear system of two coupled differential equations and studying its stability for four types of lovers chosen as CC='Cautious- Cautious', OO='Only other feelings', OP='Opposites' and RR='Romeo the Robot'. We explore the effects of, first, introducing saturation, and second, adding a random variation to one of the CC-type lover, which will shape his character by trying to model how its variability influences the dynamics between love and hate in couple in a long run relationship. This work could also be useful to model other kind of systems where interactions can be modeled as linear systems with external or internal random influence. We found the final results are not easy to predict and a strong dependence on initial conditions appear, which a signature of chaos.Keywords: differential equations, dynamical systems, linear system, love dynamics
Procedia PDF Downloads 3462889 A Study of Closed Sets and Maps with Ideals
Authors: Asha Gupta, Ramandeep Kaur
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The purpose of this paper is to study a class of closed sets, called generalized pre-closed sets with respect to an ideal (briefly Igp-closed sets), which is an extension of generalized pre-closed sets in general topology. Then, by using these sets, the concepts of Igp- compact spaces along with some classes of maps like continuous and closed maps via ideals have been introduced and analogues of some known results for compact spaces, continuous maps and closed maps in general topology have been obtained.Keywords: ideal, gp-closed sets, gp-closed maps, gp-continuous maps
Procedia PDF Downloads 2132888 Machine Learning Invariants to Detect Anomalies in Secure Water Treatment
Authors: Jonathan Heng, Yoong Cheah Huei
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A strategic model that does not trigger any false alarms to detect anomalies in Secure Water Treatment (SWaT) test bed is presented. This model uses machine learning invariants formulated from streamlining the general form of Auto-Regressive models with eXogenous input. A creative generalized CUSUM algorithm to integrate the invariants and the detection strategy technique is successfully developed and tested in the SWaT Programmable Logic Controllers (PLCs). Three steps to fine-tune parameters, b and τ in the generalized algorithm are stated and an example used to demonstrate the tuning process is discussed. This approach can swiftly and effectively detect various scopes of cyber-attacks such as multiple points single stage and multiple points multiple stages in SWaT. This technique can be applied in water treatment plants and other cyber physical systems like power and gas plants too.Keywords: machine learning invariants, generalized CUSUM algorithm with invariants and detection strategy, scope of cyber attacks, strategic model, tuning parameters
Procedia PDF Downloads 1712887 Facial Expression Recognition Using Sparse Gaussian Conditional Random Field
Authors: Mohammadamin Abbasnejad
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The analysis of expression and facial Action Units (AUs) detection are very important tasks in fields of computer vision and Human Computer Interaction (HCI) due to the wide range of applications in human life. Many works have been done during the past few years which has their own advantages and disadvantages. In this work, we present a new model based on Gaussian Conditional Random Field. We solve our objective problem using ADMM and we show how well the proposed model works. We train and test our work on two facial expression datasets, CK+, and RU-FACS. Experimental evaluation shows that our proposed approach outperform state of the art expression recognition.Keywords: Gaussian Conditional Random Field, ADMM, convergence, gradient descent
Procedia PDF Downloads 3442886 Confidence Intervals for Quantiles in the Two-Parameter Exponential Distributions with Type II Censored Data
Authors: Ayman Baklizi
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Based on type II censored data, we consider interval estimation of the quantiles of the two-parameter exponential distribution and the difference between the quantiles of two independent two-parameter exponential distributions. We derive asymptotic intervals, Bayesian, as well as intervals based on the generalized pivot variable. We also include some bootstrap intervals in our comparisons. The performance of these intervals is investigated in terms of their coverage probabilities and expected lengths.Keywords: asymptotic intervals, Bayes intervals, bootstrap, generalized pivot variables, two-parameter exponential distribution, quantiles
Procedia PDF Downloads 4062885 Credit Risk Prediction Based on Bayesian Estimation of Logistic Regression Model with Random Effects
Authors: Sami Mestiri, Abdeljelil Farhat
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The aim of this current paper is to predict the credit risk of banks in Tunisia, over the period (2000-2005). For this purpose, two methods for the estimation of the logistic regression model with random effects: Penalized Quasi Likelihood (PQL) method and Gibbs Sampler algorithm are applied. By using the information on a sample of 528 Tunisian firms and 26 financial ratios, we show that Bayesian approach improves the quality of model predictions in terms of good classification as well as by the ROC curve result.Keywords: forecasting, credit risk, Penalized Quasi Likelihood, Gibbs Sampler, logistic regression with random effects, curve ROC
Procedia PDF Downloads 5352884 Algorithms used in Spatial Data Mining GIS
Authors: Vahid Bairami Rad
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Extracting knowledge from spatial data like GIS data is important to reduce the data and extract information. Therefore, the development of new techniques and tools that support the human in transforming data into useful knowledge has been the focus of the relatively new and interdisciplinary research area ‘knowledge discovery in databases’. Thus, we introduce a set of database primitives or basic operations for spatial data mining which are sufficient to express most of the spatial data mining algorithms from the literature. This approach has several advantages. Similar to the relational standard language SQL, the use of standard primitives will speed-up the development of new data mining algorithms and will also make them more portable. We introduced a database-oriented framework for spatial data mining which is based on the concepts of neighborhood graphs and paths. A small set of basic operations on these graphs and paths were defined as database primitives for spatial data mining. Furthermore, techniques to efficiently support the database primitives by a commercial DBMS were presented.Keywords: spatial data base, knowledge discovery database, data mining, spatial relationship, predictive data mining
Procedia PDF Downloads 4482883 House Price Index Predicts a Larger Impact of Habitat Loss than Primary Productivity on the Biodiversity of North American Avian Communities
Authors: Marlen Acosta Alamo, Lisa Manne, Richard Veit
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Habitat loss due to land use change is one of the leading causes of biodiversity loss worldwide. This form of habitat loss is a non-random phenomenon since the same environmental factors that make an area suitable for supporting high local biodiversity overlap with those that make it attractive for urban development. We aimed to compare the effect of two non-random habitat loss predictors on the richness, abundance, and rarity of nature-affiliated and human-affiliated North American breeding birds. For each group of birds, we simulated the non-random habitat loss using two predictors: the House Price Index as a measure of the attractiveness of an area for humans and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index as a proxy for primary productivity. We compared the results of the two non-random simulation sets and one set of random habitat loss simulations using an analysis of variance and followed up with a Tukey-Kramer test when appropriate. The attractiveness of an area for humans predicted estimates of richness loss and increase of rarity higher than primary productivity and random habitat loss for nature-affiliated and human-affiliated birds. For example, at 50% of habitat loss, the attractiveness of an area for humans produced estimates of richness at least 5% lower and of a rarity at least 40% higher than primary productivity and random habitat loss for both groups of birds. Only for the species abundance of nature-affiliated birds, the attractiveness of an area for humans did not outperform primary productivity as a predictor of biodiversity following habitat loss. We demonstrated the value of the House Price Index, which can be used in conservation assessments as an index of the risks of habitat loss for natural communities. Thus, our results have relevant implications for sustainable urban land-use planning practices and can guide stakeholders and developers in their efforts to conserve local biodiversity.Keywords: biodiversity loss, bird biodiversity, house price index, non-random habitat loss
Procedia PDF Downloads 792882 Bayesian Flexibility Modelling of the Conditional Autoregressive Prior in a Disease Mapping Model
Authors: Davies Obaromi, Qin Yongsong, James Ndege, Azeez Adeboye, Akinwumi Odeyemi
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The basic model usually used in disease mapping, is the Besag, York and Mollie (BYM) model and which combines the spatially structured and spatially unstructured priors as random effects. Bayesian Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) model is a disease mapping method that is commonly used for smoothening the relative risk of any disease as used in the Besag, York and Mollie (BYM) model. This model (CAR), which is also usually assigned as a prior to one of the spatial random effects in the BYM model, successfully uses information from adjacent sites to improve estimates for individual sites. To our knowledge, there are some unrealistic or counter-intuitive consequences on the posterior covariance matrix of the CAR prior for the spatial random effects. In the conventional BYM (Besag, York and Mollie) model, the spatially structured and the unstructured random components cannot be seen independently, and which challenges the prior definitions for the hyperparameters of the two random effects. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to construct and utilize an extended Bayesian spatial CAR model for studying tuberculosis patterns in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa, and then compare for flexibility with some existing CAR models. The results of the study revealed the flexibility and robustness of this alternative extended CAR to the commonly used CAR models by comparison, using the deviance information criteria. The extended Bayesian spatial CAR model is proved to be a useful and robust tool for disease modeling and as a prior for the structured spatial random effects because of the inclusion of an extra hyperparameter.Keywords: Besag2, CAR models, disease mapping, INLA, spatial models
Procedia PDF Downloads 2702881 The Normal-Generalized Hyperbolic Secant Distribution: Properties and Applications
Authors: Hazem M. Al-Mofleh
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In this paper, a new four-parameter univariate continuous distribution called the Normal-Generalized Hyperbolic Secant Distribution (NGHS) is defined and studied. Some general and structural distributional properties are investigated and discussed, including: central and non-central n-th moments and incomplete moments, quantile and generating functions, hazard function, Rényi and Shannon entropies, shapes: skewed right, skewed left, and symmetric, modality regions: unimodal and bimodal, maximum likelihood (MLE) estimators for the parameters. Finally, two real data sets are used to demonstrate empirically its flexibility and prove the strength of the new distribution.Keywords: bimodality, estimation, hazard function, moments, Shannon’s entropy
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