Search results for: generalized extreme value (GEV)

Authors: Mara F. Müller, Simon C. Griffith, Tara L. Crewe, Mirjam Kaestli, Sydney J. Collett, Ian J. Radford, Hamish A. Campbell

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The intensity and frequency of heat waves have been progressively increasing because of climate change. Passerines that inhabit very hot regions are already close to their physiological thermal limit and are thus considered highly susceptible to increased ambient temperatures. However, the extent by which passerines behaviorally compensate for extreme heat in their natural habitat has rarely been assessed due to monitoring challenges. To address this knowledge gap, coded VHF-nano transmitters were attached to a tropical passerine (Gouldian finch, Chloebia gouldiae). Fine-scale activity and movement were monitored throughout the hottest and driest period of the year using an array of static VHF-receivers. The finches were found to typically show a peak activity for a few hours at sunrise and remained relatively quiescent for the rest of the day. However, on extremely hot days (max temperature >38ºC), finches showed higher activity levels earlier in the morning and presented a second peak in the afternoon. Gouldian finches are physiologically challenged when ambient temperatures exceed 38ºC, suggesting the shift in movement activity reflects a behavioral mitigation strategy to extreme heat. These tropical finches already exist on an energetic knife-edge during this time of the year due to resource scarcity. Hence, the increased energetic expenditure to mitigate thermal stress may be detrimental. The study demonstrates the value of VHF-telemetry technology in monitoring the impact of global change on the biology of small-bodied mobile species.

Keywords: animal tracking, biotelemetry, climate change, extreme heat, movement activity, radiotelemetry, VHF-telemetry

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Authors: Jafar Khodagholizadeh

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In this talk, we study the tensor mode equation of perturbation in the presence of nonzero $-\Lambda$ as dark energy, whose dynamic nature depends on the Hubble parameter $ H$ and/or its time derivative. Dark energy, according to the total vacuum contribution, has little effect during the radiation-dominated era, but it reduces the squared amplitude of gravitational waves (GWs) up to $60\%$ for the wavelengths that enter the horizon during the matter-dominated era. Moreover, the observations bound on dark energy models, such as running vacuum model (RVM), generalized running vacuum model (GRVM), and generalized running vacuum subcase (GRVS), are effective in reducing the GWs’ amplitude. Although this effect is less for the wavelengths that enter the horizon at later times, this reduction is stable and permanent.

Keywords: gravitational waves, dark energy, GW's amplitude, all stage universe

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Authors: Noora Al-Shanfari, M. Mazharul Islam

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The cumulative incidence function (CIF) is a fundamental approach for analyzing survival data in the presence of competing risks, which estimates the marginal probability for each competing event. Parametric modeling of CIF has the advantage of fitting various shapes of CIF and estimates the impact of covariates with maximum efficiency. To calculate the total CIF's covariate influence using a parametric model., it is essential to parametrize the baseline of the CIF. As the CIF is an improper function by nature, it is necessary to utilize an improper distribution when applying parametric models. The Gompertz distribution, which is an improper distribution, is limited in its applicability as it only accounts for monotone hazard shapes. The generalized Gompertz distribution, however, can adapt to a wider range of hazard shapes, including unimodal, bathtub, and monotonic increasing or decreasing hazard shapes. In this paper, the generalized Gompertz distribution is used to parametrize the baseline of the CIF, and the parameters of the proposed model are estimated using the maximum likelihood approach. The proposed model is compared with the existing Gompertz model using the Akaike information criterion. Appropriate statistical test procedures and model-fitting criteria will be used to test the adequacy of the model. Both models are applied to the ‘colon’ dataset, which is available in the “biostat3” package in R.

Keywords: competing risks, cumulative incidence function, improper distribution, parametric modeling, survival analysis

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Authors: Szu-Hua Wang, Yi-Wen Chen

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Urban ecosystems are complex coupled human-environment systems. They contain abundant natural resources for producing natural assets and attract urban assets to consume natural resources for urban development. Urban ecosystems provide several ecosystem services, including provisioning services, regulating services, cultural services, and supporting services. Rapid global climate change makes urban ecosystems and their ecosystem services encountering various natural disasters. Lots of natural disasters have occurred around the world under the constant changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events in the past two decades. In Taiwan, hydrological disasters have been paid more attention due to the potential high sensitivity of Taiwan’s cities to climate change, and it impacts. However, climate change not only causes extreme weather events directly but also affects the interactions among human, ecosystem services and their dynamic feedback processes indirectly. Therefore, this study adopts a systematic method, solar energy synthesis, based on the concept of the eco-energy analysis. The Taipei area, the most densely populated area in Taiwan, is selected as the study area. The changes of ecosystem services between 2015 and Typhoon Soudelor have been compared in order to investigate the impacts of extreme precipitation events on ecosystem services. The results show that the forest areas are the largest contributions of energy to ecosystem services in the Taipei area generally. Different soil textures of different subsystem have various upper limits of water contents or substances. The major contribution of ecosystem services of the study area is natural hazard regulation provided by the surface water resources areas. During the period of Typhoon Soudelor, the freshwater supply in the forest areas had become the main contribution. Erosion control services were the main ecosystem service affected by Typhoon Soudelor. The second and third main ecosystem services were hydrologic regulation and food supply. Due to the interactions among ecosystem services, fresh water supply, water purification, and waste treatment had been affected severely.

Keywords: ecosystem, extreme precipitation events, ecosystem services, solar energy synthesis

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Authors: Rasaq Kareem, Jacob Gbadeyan

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In this study, analysis of the entropy generation of an unsteady reactive hydromagnetic generalized couette fluid flow of a two-step exothermic chemical reaction through a channel with isothermal wall temperature under the influence of different chemical kinetics namely: Sensitized, Arrhenius and Bimolecular kinetics was investigated. The modelled nonlinear dimensionless equations governing the fluid flow were simplified and solved using the combined Laplace Differential Transform Method (LDTM). The effects of fluid parameters associated with the problem on the fluid temperature, entropy generation rate and Bejan number were discussed and presented through graphs.

Keywords: couette, entropy, exothermic, unsteady

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Authors: Sulamain Alharbi, Mohammad Khiyami, Reda Amasha, Bassam Al-Johny, Hesham Khalil, Milton Wainwrigh

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Nematodes, Rotifers and Tardigrades (NRT) are extreme-tolerant invertebrates which can survive long periods of stasis brought about by extreme drying and cold. They can also resist the effects of UV radiation, and as a result could act as vehicles for the panspermic transfer of microorganisms. Here we show that NRT contain a variety of bacteria and fungi within their bodies in which environment they could be protected from the extremes of the space and released into new cosmic environments. Diatoms were also shown to contain viable alga and Escherichia coli and so could also act as panspermic vehicles for the transfer of these and perhaps other microbes through space. Although not studied here, NRT, and possibly diatoms, also carry protozoa and viruses within their bodies and could act as vehicles for the panspermic transfer of an even wider range of microbes than shown here.

Keywords: extromophiles, diatoms, panspermia, survival in space

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Authors: Hamdy M. Youssef, Eman A. Al-Lehaibi

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This paper presents an iteration method for the numerical solutions of a one-dimensional problem of generalized thermoelasticity with one relaxation time under given initial and boundary conditions. The thermoelastic material with variable properties as a power functional graded has been considered. Adomian’s decomposition techniques have been applied to the governing equations. The numerical results have been calculated by using the iterations method with a certain algorithm. The numerical results have been represented in figures, and the figures affirm that Adomian’s decomposition method is a successful method for modeling thermoelastic problems. Moreover, the empirical parameter of the functional graded, and the lattice design parameter have significant effects on the temperature increment, the strain, the stress, the displacement.

Keywords: Adomian, decomposition method, generalized thermoelasticity, algorithm

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Authors: Muhammad Fiaz

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The article in hand is the study of complex features like Zero Hopf Bifurcation, Chaos and Synchronization of integer and fractional order version of a new 3D finance system. Trusted tools of averaging theory and active control method are utilized for investigation of Zero Hopf bifurcation and synchronization for both versions respectively. Inventiveness of the paper is to find the answer of a question that is it possible to find a chaotic system which can be synchronized with any other of the same dimension? Based on different examples we categorically develop a theory that if a couple of master and slave chaotic dynamical system is synchronized by selecting a suitable gain matrix with special conditions then the master system is synchronized with any chaotic dynamical system of the same dimension. With the help of this study we developed generalized theorems for synchronization of n-dimension dynamical systems for integer as well as fractional versions. it proposed that this investigation will contribute a lot to control dynamical systems and only a suitable gain matrix with special conditions is enough to synchronize the system under consideration with any other chaotic system of the same dimension. Chaotic properties of fractional version of the new finance system are also analyzed at fractional order q=0.87. Simulations results, where required, also provided for authenticity of analytical study.

Keywords: complex analysis, chaos, generalized synchronization, control dynamics, fractional order analysis

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Authors: Petra Balla, Gabor Manhertz, Akos Antal

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Nowadays spinal deformities are very frequent problems among teenagers. Scheuermann disease is a one dimensional deformity of the spine, but it has prevalence over 11% of the children. A traditional technology, the moiré method was used by us for screening and diagnosing this type of spinal deformity. A LabVIEW program has been developed to evaluate the moiré pictures of patients with Scheuermann disease. Two different solutions were tested in this computer program, the extreme and the inflexion point calculation methods. Effects using these methods were compared and according to the results both solutions seemed to be appropriate. Statistical results showed better efficiency in case of the extreme search method where the average difference was only 6,09⁰.

Keywords: spinal deformity, picture evaluation, Moiré method, Scheuermann disease, curve detection, Moiré topography

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Authors: Susmita Ghosh

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Catchment area of Damodar River, India experiences seasonal rains due to the south-west monsoon every year and depending upon the intensity of the storms, floods occur. During the monsoon season, the rainfall in the area is mainly due to active monsoon conditions. The upstream reach of Damodar river system has five dams store the water for utilization for various purposes viz, irrigation, hydro-power generation, municipal supplies and last but not the least flood moderation. But, in the downstream reach of Damodar River, known as Lower Damodar region, is severely and frequently suffering from flood due to heavy monsoon rainfall and also release from upstream reservoirs. Therefore, an effective flood management study is required to know in depth the nature and extent of flood, water logging, and erosion related problems, affected area, and damages in the Lower Damodar region, by conducting mathematical model study. The design flood or discharge is needed to decide to assign the respective model for getting several scenarios from the simulation runs. The ultimate aim is to achieve a sustainable flood management scheme from the several alternatives. there are various methods for estimating flood discharges to be carried through the rivers and their tributaries for quick drainage from inundated areas due to drainage congestion and excess rainfall. In the present study, the flood frequency analysis is performed to decide the design flood discharge of the study area. This, on the other hand, has limitations in respect of availability of long peak flood data record for determining long type of probability density function correctly. If sufficient past records are available, the maximum flood on a river with a given frequency can safely be determined. The floods of different frequency for the Damodar has been calculated by five candidate distributions i.e., generalized extreme value, extreme value-I, Pearson type III, Log Pearson and normal. Annual peak discharge series are available at Durgapur barrage for the period of 1979 to 2013 (35 years). The available series are subjected to frequency analysis. The primary objective of the flood frequency analysis is to relate the magnitude of extreme events to their frequencies of occurrence through the use of probability distributions. The design flood for return periods of 10, 15 and 25 years return period at Durgapur barrage are estimated by flood frequency method. It is necessary to develop flood hydrographs for the above floods to facilitate the mathematical model studies to find the depth and extent of inundation etc. Null hypothesis that the distributions fit the data at 95% confidence is checked with goodness of fit test, i.e., Chi Square Test. It is revealed from the goodness of fit test that the all five distributions do show a good fit on the sample population and is therefore accepted. However, it is seen that there is considerable variation in the estimation of frequency flood. It is therefore considered prudent to average out the results of these five distributions for required frequencies. The inundated area from past data is well matched using this flood.

Keywords: design discharge, flood frequency, goodness of fit, sustainable flood management

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Authors: Oren Shtayermman

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The current investigation expended on research among parents caring for a child who is diagnosed with an autism spectrum disorder (ASD). An online web survey was used to collect data from 253 parents caring for a child with a diagnosis of ASD. Both parents reported on elevated levels of parental stress associated with caring for the child on the spectrum. In addition, lower levels of marital satisfaction were found in both parents. About 13% of the parents in the sample met the diagnostic criteria for Major Depressive Disorder and About 15% of the parents met the diagnostic criteria for Generalized Anxiety Disorder. Although the majority of the sample was females (94%) significant differences were found between males and females in relation to meeting the diagnostic criteria for Major Depressive Disorder and for Generalized Anxiety Disorder. Higher levels of stress were associated with higher number of Generalized Anxiety Disorder symptoms and higher number of Major Depressive Disorder symptoms. Findings from this study indicate how vulnerable parents and especially females are in relation to caring to a child diagnosed with ASD. Educational Objectives: At the conclusion of the paper, the readers should be able to: -Identify levels of stress and marital satisfaction among parents caring for a child diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder, -Recognize the impact of stress on the development of mental health issues, -Name the two most common mood and anxiety related disorders associated with caring for a child diagnosed with an autism spectrum disorder.

Keywords: autism, stress, parents, children

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Authors: Arunee Wongkhao, Suparat Niwitpong, Sa-aat Niwitpong

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In this paper, we propose two new confidence intervals for the difference between the inverse of normal means with known coefficients of variation. One of these two confidence intervals for this problem is constructed based on the generalized confidence interval and the other confidence interval is constructed based on the closed form method of variance estimation. We examine the performance of these confidence intervals in terms of coverage probabilities and expected lengths via Monte Carlo simulation.

Keywords: coverage probability, expected length, inverse of normal mean, coefficient of variation, generalized confidence interval, closed form method of variance estimation

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Authors: Daniyar Seitenov, Nazim Mir-Nasiri

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Optimization of horizontal axis semi-exposed wind turbine has been performed using a shield protection that automatically protects the generator shaft at extreme wind speeds from over speeding, mechanical damage and continues generating electricity during the high wind speed conditions. A semi-exposed to wind generator has been designed and its structure has been described in this paper. The simplified point-force dynamic load model on the blades has been derived for normal and extreme wind conditions with and without shield involvement. Numerical simulation has been conducted at different values of wind speed to study the efficiency of shield application. The obtained results show that the maximum power generated by the wind turbine with shield does not exceed approximately the rated value of the generator, where shield serves as an automatic break for extreme wind speed values of 15 m/sec and above. Meantime the wind turbine without shield produced a power that is much larger than the rated value. The optimized horizontal axis semi-exposed wind turbine with shield protection is suitable for low and medium power generation when installed on the roofs of high rise buildings for harvesting wind energy. Wind shield works automatically with no power consumption. The structure of the generator with the protection, math simulation of kinematics and dynamics of power generation has been described in details in this paper.

Keywords: renewable energy, wind turbine, wind turbine optimization, high wind speed

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Authors: Antonia Harold-Barry, Eugene Dempsey

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Background: The objective is to examine the survival and outcome of infants born under 26 weeks gestation in an Irish tertiary maternity hospital from 2007-2016 and to describe the survival and neurodevelopmental outcomes of these extremely preterm infants. Method: The population is 132 infants born at 23, 24, and 25 weeks in Cork University Maternity Hospital from 2007 to 2016. Ethical approval was granted by the Cork Clinical Research Ethics Committee. Patient details were obtained from the Vermont Oxford and Badger Networks. Survival rates and Bayley scores were calculated to assess neurodevelopmental outcomes. Statistical analysis with SPSS included frequencies, distributions, and comparisons between data from 2007-2011 and 2012-2016. Results: Overall survival rate was 63%. Of the surviving babies, 61% had Bayley scores calculated. Survival stood at 39% for delivery at 23 weeks, 50% at 24 weeks, and 83% at 25 weeks. The 2012 to 2016 cohort has shown further increases in survival, with 50% of babies at 23 weeks, 58% at 24 weeks, and 89% at 25 weeks. Corresponding figures for 2007-2011 are 20%, 39%, and 75%. Gestational age and incidence of periventricular leukomalacia were statistically significant, with a p-value of 0.022. Gestational age and delivery room deaths had a p-value of 0.025, as did gestational age and birth weight. A comparison of the two cohorts (2007-2011 and 2012-2016) with the administration of antenatal steroids showed a statistically significant p-value of 0.044. Conclusion: There is less morbidity and mortality in infants born at 25 than at 23 or 24 weeks. Survival of extremely premature infants has increased significantly over the past ten years. Survival rates with normal neurodevelopmental outcomes are comparable with international standards and reflect positive changes in attitude and practices in neonatal intensive care. This study will inform parents about the potential outcomes of extreme prematurity and policy regarding the management of extreme prematurity.

Keywords: extreme of viability, neurodevelopmental outcome, periventricular leukomalacia, prematurity

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Authors: Vallence Ngabo M., Leonard Atuhaire, Peter Clever Rutayisire

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The main aim of this study was to establish the differences in both the determinants of stunting and the causal mechanism through which the identified determinants influence stunting amongst male and female under-fives in Uganda. Literature shows that male children below the age of five years are at a higher risk of being stunted than their female counterparts. Specifically, studies in Uganda indicate that being a male child is positively associated with stunting, while being a female is negatively associated with stunting. Data for 904 males and 829 females under-fives was extracted form UDHS-2016 survey dataset. Key variables for this study were identified and used in generating relevant models and paths. Structural equation modeling techniques were used in their generalized form (GSEM). The generalized nature necessitated specifying both the family and link functions for each response variable in the system of the model. The sex of the child (b4) was used as a grouping factor and the height for age (HAZ) scores were used to construct the status for stunting of under-fives. The estimated models and path clearly indicated that the set of underlying factors that influence male and female under-fives respectively was different and the path through which they influence stunting was different. However, some of the determinants that influenced stunting amongst male under-fives also influenced stunting amongst the female under-fives. To reduce the stunting problem to the desirable state, it is important to consider the multifaceted and complex nature of the risk factors that influence stunting amongst the under-fives but, more importantly, consider the different sex-specific factors and their causal mechanism or paths through which they influence stunting.

Keywords: stunting, underfives, sex of the child, GSEM, causal mechanism

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Authors: Eugen Rusu

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The objective of the work proposed is to perform an analysis of the wave conditions in the Black Sea basin. This is especially focused on the spatial and temporal occurrences and on the dynamics of the most extreme storms in the context of the climate changes. A numerical modelling system, based on the spectral phase averaged wave model SWAN, has been implemented and validated against both in situ measurements and remotely sensed data, all along the sea. Moreover, a successive correction method for the assimilation of the satellite data has been associated with the wave modelling system. This is based on the optimal interpolation of the satellite data. Previous studies show that the process of data assimilation improves considerably the reliability of the results provided by the modelling system. This especially concerns the most sensitive cases from the point of view of the accuracy of the wave predictions, as the extreme storm situations are. Following this numerical approach, it has to be highlighted that the results provided by the wave modelling system above described are in general in line with those provided by some similar wave prediction systems implemented in enclosed or semi-enclosed sea basins. Simulations of this wave modelling system with data assimilation have been performed for the 30-year period 1987-2016. Considering this database, the next step was to analyze the intensity and the dynamics of the higher storms encountered in this period. According to the data resulted from the model simulations, the western side of the sea is considerably more energetic than the rest of the basin. In this western region, regular strong storms provide usually significant wave heights greater than 8m. This may lead to maximum wave heights even greater than 15m. Such regular strong storms may occur several times in one year, usually in the wintertime, or in late autumn, and it can be noticed that their frequency becomes higher in the last decade. As regards the case of the most extreme storms, significant wave heights greater than 10m and maximum wave heights close to 20m (and even greater) may occur. Such extreme storms, which in the past were noticed only once in four or five years, are more recent to be faced almost every year in the Black Sea, and this seems to be a consequence of the climate changes. The analysis performed included also the dynamics of the monthly and annual significant wave height maxima as well as the identification of the most probable spatial and temporal occurrences of the extreme storm events. Finally, it can be concluded that the present work provides valuable information related to the characteristics of the storm conditions and on their dynamics in the Black Sea. This environment is currently subjected to high navigation traffic and intense offshore and nearshore activities and the strong storms that systematically occur may produce accidents with very serious consequences.

Keywords: Black Sea, extreme storms, SWAN simulations, waves

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Authors: Majid Samiee Zonoozian

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For such important constructions as jacket type platforms, scrupulous attention in analysis, design and calculation processes is needed. The reliability assessment method has been established into an extensively used method to behavior safety calculation of jacket platforms. In the present study, a methodology for the reliability calculation of an offshore jacket platform in contradiction of the extreme wave loading state is available. Therefore, sensitivity analyses are applied to acquire the nonlinear response of jacket-type platforms against extreme waves. The jacket structure is modeled by applying a nonlinear finite-element model with regards to the tubular members' behave. The probability of a member’s failure under extreme wave loading is figured by a finite-element reliability code. The FORM and SORM approaches are applied for the calculation of safety directories and reliability indexes have been detected. A case study for a fixed jacket-type structure positioned in the Persian Gulf is studied by means of the planned method. Furthermore, to define the failure standards, equations suggested by the 21st version of the API RP 2A-WSD for The jacket-type structures’ tubular members designing by applying the mixed axial bending and axial pressure. Consequently, the effect of wave Loades in the reliability index was considered.

Keywords: Jacket-Type structure, reliability, failure probability, tubular members

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Authors: Aiman Mazhar Qureshi, Ahmed Rachid

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Extreme heat events are emerging human environmental health concerns in dense urban areas due to anthropogenic activities. High spatial and temporal resolution heat maps are important for urban heat adaptation and mitigation, helping to indicate hotspots that are required for the attention of city planners. The Heat Vulnerability Index (HVI) is the important approach used by decision-makers and urban planners to identify heat-vulnerable communities and areas that require heat stress mitigation strategies. Amiens is a medium-sized French city, where the average temperature has been increasing since the year 2000 by +1°C. Extreme heat events are recorded in the month of July for the last three consecutive years, 2018, 2019 and 2020. Poor air quality, especially ground-level ozone, has been observed mainly during the same hot period. In this study, we evaluated the HVI in Amiens during extreme heat days recorded last three years (2018,2019,2020). The Principal Component Analysis (PCA) technique is used for fine-scale vulnerability mapping. The main data we considered for this study to develop the HVI model are (a) socio-economic and demographic data; (b) Air pollution; (c) Land use and cover; (d) Elderly heat-illness; (e) socially vulnerable; (f) Remote sensing data (Land surface temperature (LST), mean elevation, NDVI and NDWI). The output maps identified the hot zones through comprehensive GIS analysis. The resultant map shows that high HVI exists in three typical areas: (1) where the population density is quite high and the vegetation cover is small (2) the artificial surfaces (built-in areas) (3) industrial zones that release thermal energy and ground-level ozone while those with low HVI are located in natural landscapes such as rivers and grasslands. The study also illustrates the system theory with a causal diagram after data analysis where anthropogenic activities and air pollution appear in correspondence with extreme heat events in the city. Our suggested index can be a useful tool to guide urban planners and municipalities, decision-makers and public health professionals in targeting areas at high risk of extreme heat and air pollution for future interventions adaptation and mitigation measures.

Keywords: heat vulnerability index, heat mapping, heat health-illness, remote sensing, urban heat mitigation

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Authors: Naushad Mamode Khan

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The Com-Poisson (CMP) model is one of the most popular discrete generalized linear models (GLMS) that handles both equi-, over- and under-dispersed data. In longitudinal context, an integer-valued autoregressive (INAR(1)) process that incorporates covariate specification has been developed to model longitudinal CMP counts. However, the joint likelihood CMP function is difficult to specify and thus restricts the likelihood based estimating methodology. The joint generalized quasilikelihood approach (GQL-I) was instead considered but is rather computationally intensive and may not even estimate the regression effects due to a complex and frequently ill conditioned covariance structure. This paper proposes a new GQL approach for estimating the regression parameters (GQLIII) that are based on a single score vector representation. The performance of GQL-III is compared with GQL-I and separate marginal GQLs (GQL-II) through some simulation experiments and is proved to yield equally efficient estimates as GQL-I and is far more computationally stable.

Keywords: longitudinal, com-Poisson, ill-conditioned, INAR(1), GLMS, GQL

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Authors: Sujeet Kumar, Arun Prasad

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The present work investigates the effect of multiple parameters on the unconfined compressive strength of the bauxite residue-lime mix. A number of unconfined compressive strength tests considering various curing time, lime content, dry density and moisture content were carried out. The results show that an empirical correlation may be successfully developed using volumetric lime content, porosity, moisture content, curing time unconfined compressive strength for the range of the bauxite residue-lime mix studied. The proposed empirical correlations efficiently predict the strength of bauxite residue-lime mix, and it can be used as a generalized empirical equation to estimate unconfined compressive strength.

Keywords: bauxite residue, curing time, porosity/volumetric lime ratio, unconfined compressive strength

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Authors: Jonathan D. Moore, Mark G. Reith, David S. Long

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Serious games (SGs) have been shown to be an effective teaching tool in many contexts. Because of the success of SGs, several design frameworks have been created to expedite the process of making original serious games to teach specific learning objectives (LOs). Even with these frameworks, the time required to create a custom SG from conception to implementation can range from months to years. Furthermore, it is even more difficult to design a game framework that allows an instructor to create customized game variants supporting multiple LOs within the same field. This paper proposes a refactoring methodology to apply the theoretical principles from well-established design frameworks to a pre-existing serious game. The expected result is a generalized game that can be quickly customized to teach LOs not originally targeted by the game. This methodology begins by describing the general components in a game, then uses a combination of two SG design frameworks to extract the teaching elements present in the game. The identified teaching elements are then used as the theoretical basis to determine the range of LOs that can be taught by the game. This paper evaluates the proposed methodology by presenting a case study of refactoring the serious game Battlespace Next (BSN) to teach joint military capabilities. The range of LOs that can be taught by the generalized BSN are identified, and examples of creating custom LOs are given. Survey results from users of the generalized game are also provided. Lastly, the expected impact of this work is discussed and a road map for future work and evaluation is presented.

Keywords: serious games, learning objectives, game design, learning theory, game framework

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Authors: Mohadeseh Shojaei Shahrokhabadi, Ding-Geng (Din) Chen

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Positive continuous outcomes with a substantial number of zero values and incomplete longitudinal follow-up are quite common in medical cost data. To jointly model semi-continuous longitudinal cost data and survival data and to provide marginalized covariate effect estimates, a marginalized two-part joint model (MTJM) has been developed for outcome variables with lognormal distributions. In this paper, we propose MTJM models for outcome variables from a generalized gamma (GG) family of distributions. The GG distribution constitutes a general family that includes approximately all of the most frequently used distributions like the Gamma, Exponential, Weibull, and Log Normal. In the proposed MTJM-GG model, the conditional mean from a conventional two-part model with a three-parameter GG distribution is parameterized to provide the marginal interpretation for regression coefficients. In addition, MTJM-gamma and MTJM-Weibull are developed as special cases of MTJM-GG. To illustrate the applicability of the MTJM-GG, we applied the model to a set of real electronic health record data recently collected in Iran, and we provided SAS code for application. The simulation results showed that when the outcome distribution is unknown or misspecified, which is usually the case in real data sets, the MTJM-GG consistently outperforms other models. The GG family of distribution facilitates estimating a model with improved fit over the MTJM-gamma, standard Weibull, or Log-Normal distributions.

Keywords: marginalized two-part model, zero-inflated, right-skewed, semi-continuous, generalized gamma

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Authors: Tarul Garg, P. N. Agrawal

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We propose to define the q-analogue of the α-Bernstein Kantorovich operators and then introduce the q-bivariate generalization of these operators to study the approximation of functions of two variables. We obtain the rate of convergence of these bivariate operators by means of the total modulus of continuity, partial modulus of continuity and the Peetre’s K-functional for continuous functions. Further, in order to study the approximation of functions of two variables in a space bigger than the space of continuous functions, i.e. Bögel space; the GBS (Generalized Boolean Sum) of the q-bivariate operators is considered and degree of approximation is discussed for the Bögel continuous and Bögel differentiable functions with the aid of the Lipschitz class and the mixed modulus of smoothness.

Keywords: Bögel continuous, Bögel differentiable, generalized Boolean sum, K-functional, mixed modulus of smoothness

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Authors: A. Ghenaim, A. Terfous

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In this work, degradation phenomena in fluvial beds having uniform sediments are explored experimentally under extreme flow conditions. Laboratory experiments were conducted in a rectangular cross-section channel for different flow conditions, channel characteristics, and sediment properties at the National Institute of Applied Sciences (Strasbourg, France). Tests were carried out in two conditions: (1) equilibrium condition, where, once the steady and uniform flow conditions were achieved for a given slope and discharge, the channel was fed with variable sediment discharges until the bed-load sediment transport achieved an equilibrium condition; and (2) nonequilibrium condition, where the sediment feeding was instantaneously stopped, and the bed levels were measured over time. Experimental results enabled assessing the erosion rates and determining the empirical mathematical model to predict the bed level changes.

Keywords: fluvial beds, sediment, uniform flow conditions, nonequilibrium condition, sediment disposition, erosion

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Authors: Mohadese Motahari

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In general, we consider the phenomenon of "fandism" or extreme fandom to be an aspect of fandom for a person, a group, or a collection, which leads to extreme support for them. So, for example, we consider a fan or a "fanatic" (which literally means a "fanatical person") to be a person who is extremely interested in a certain topic or topics and has a special passion and fascination for that issue. It may also be beyond the scope of logic and normal behavior of the society. With the expansion of the media and the advancement of technology, the phenomenon of fandom also underwent many changes and not only became more intense, but a large economy was also formed alongside it, and it is becoming more and more important every day. This economy, which emerged from the past with the formation of the first media, has now taken a different form with the development of media and social networks, as well as the change in the interaction between celebrities and audiences. Earning huge amounts of money with special methods in every social network and every media is achieved through fans and fandoms. In this article, we have studied the relationship between fans and famous people with reference to the economic debates surrounding it.

Keywords: fandism, famous people, social media, new media

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Authors: Septimia Sarbu

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The entropy rate of a stochastic process is a fundamental concept in information theory. It provides a limit to the amount of information that can be transmitted reliably over a communication channel, as stated by Shannon's coding theorems. Recently, researchers have focused on developing new measures of information that generalize Shannon's classical theory. The aim is to design more efficient information encoding and transmission schemes. This paper continues the study of generalized entropy rates, by deriving a closed-form solution to the Sharma-Mittal entropy rate for Gaussian processes. Using the squeeze theorem, we solve the limit in the definition of the entropy rate, for different values of alpha and beta, which are the parameters of the Sharma-Mittal entropy. In the end, we compare it with Shannon and Rényi's entropy rates for Gaussian processes.

Keywords: generalized entropies, Sharma-Mittal entropy rate, Gaussian processes, eigenvalues of the covariance matrix, squeeze theorem

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Authors: Nikk Leavitt, Peter Kellett, Cheryl Currie, Richard Larouche

Abstract:

Background: Masculinity has been associated with poor mental health outcomes in adult men and is colloquially referred to as toxic. Masculinity is traditionally measured using the Male Role Norms Inventory, which examines behaviors that may be common in men but that are themselves associated with poor mental health regardless of gender (e.g., aggressiveness). The purpose of this study was to examine if masculinity is associated with generalized anxiety among men using this inventory vs. a man’s personal definition of it. Method: An online survey collected data from 1,200 men aged 18-65 across Canada in July 2022. Masculinity was measured using: 1) the Male Role Norms Inventory Short Form and 2) by asking men to self-define what being masculine means. Men were then asked to rate the extent they perceived themselves to be masculine on a scale of 1 to 10 based on their definition of the construct. Generalized anxiety disorder was measured using the GAD-7. Multiple linear regression was used to examine associations between each masculinity score and anxiety score, adjusting for confounders. Results: The masculinity score measured using the inventory was positively associated with increased anxiety scores among men (β = 0.02, p < 0.01). Masculinity subscales most strongly correlated with higher anxiety were restrictive emotionality (β = 0.29, p < 0.01) and dominance (β = 0.30, p < 0.01). When traditional masculinity was replaced by a man’s self-rated masculinity score in the model, the reverse association was found, with increasing masculinity resulting in a significantly reduced anxiety score (β = -0.13, p = 0.04). Discussion: These findings highlight the need to revisit the ways in which masculinity is defined and operationalized in research to better understand its impacts on men’s mental health. The findings also highlight the importance of allowing participants to self-define gender-based constructs, given they are fluid and socially constructed.

Keywords: masculinity, generalized anxiety disorder, race, intersectionality

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Authors: Siti Khadijah Che Osmi, Mohammed Ahmad Syed

Abstract:

Underground structures are crucial components which required detailed analysis and design. Tunnels, for instance, are massively constructed as transportation infrastructures and utilities network especially in urban environments. Considering their prime importance to the economy and public safety that cannot be compromised, thus any instability to these tunnels will be highly detrimental to their performance. Recent experience suggests that tunnels become vulnerable during earthquakes and blast scenarios. However, a very limited amount of studies has been carried out to study and understanding the dynamic response and performance of underground tunnels under those unpredictable extreme hazards. In view of the importance of enhancing the resilience of these structures, the overall aims of the study are to evaluate probabilistic future performance of shallow tunnels subjected to seismic and blast loads by developing detailed fragility analysis. Critical non-linear time history numerical analyses using sophisticated finite element software Midas GTS NX have been presented about the current methods of analysis, taking into consideration of structural typology, ground motion and explosive characteristics, effect of soil conditions and other associated uncertainties on the tunnel integrity which may ultimately lead to the catastrophic failure of the structures. The proposed fragility curves for both extreme loadings are discussed and compared which provide significant information the performance of the tunnel under extreme hazards which may beneficial for future risk assessment and loss estimation.

Keywords: fragility analysis, seismic loads, shallow tunnels, blast loads

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Authors: Devinder Singh, Rajneesh Kumar, Arvind Kumar

Abstract:

The present investigation deals with generalized model of the equations for a homogeneous isotropic microstretch thermoelastic half space with mass diffusion medium. Theories of generalized thermoelasticity Lord-Shulman (LS) Green-Lindsay (GL) and Coupled Theory (CT) theories are applied to investigate the problem. The stresses in the considered medium have been studied due to normal force and tangential force. The normal mode analysis technique is used to calculate the normal stress, shear stress, couple stresses and microstress. A numerical computation has been performed on the resulting quantity. The computed numerical results are shown graphically.

Keywords: microstretch, thermoelastic, normal mode analysis, normal and tangential force, microstress force

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Authors: Timothy Kayode Samson, Adedoyin Isola Lawal

Abstract:

The past five years have shown a sharp increase in public interest in the crypto market, with its market capitalization growing from $100 billion in June 2017 to $2158.42 billion on April 5, 2022. Despite the outrageous nature of the volatility of cryptocurrencies, the use of skewed error innovation distributions in modelling the volatility behaviour of these digital currencies has not been given much research attention. Hence, this study models the volatility of 5 largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether, Binance coin, and USD Coin) using four variants of GARCH models (GJR-GARCH, sGARCH, EGARCH, and APARCH) estimated using three skewed error innovation distributions (skewed normal, skewed student- t and skewed generalized error innovation distributions). Daily closing prices of these currencies were obtained from Yahoo Finance website. Finding reveals that the Binance coin reported higher mean returns compared to other digital currencies, while the skewness indicates that the Binance coin, Tether, and USD coin increased more than they decreased in values within the period of study. For both Bitcoin and Ethereum, negative skewness was obtained, meaning that within the period of study, the returns of these currencies decreased more than they increased in value. Returns from these cryptocurrencies were found to be stationary but not normality distributed with evidence of the ARCH effect. The skewness parameters in all best forecasting models were all significant (p<.05), justifying of use of skewed error innovation distributions with a fatter tail than normal, Student-t, and generalized error innovation distributions. For Binance coin, EGARCH-sstd outperformed other volatility models, while for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether, and USD coin, the best forecasting models were EGARCH-sstd, APARCH-sstd, EGARCH-sged, and GJR-GARCH-sstd, respectively. This suggests the superiority of skewed Student t- distribution and skewed generalized error distribution over the skewed normal distribution.

Keywords: skewed generalized error distribution, skewed normal distribution, skewed student t- distribution, APARCH, EGARCH, sGARCH, GJR-GARCH

Procedia PDF Downloads 82