Search results for: flood warning spillways

Authors: Mohamad Muqtada Ali Khan, Nor Ashikin Shaari, Donny Adriansyah bin Nazaruddin, Hafzan Eva Bt Mansoor

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Floods play a key role in landform evolution of an area. This process is likely to alter the topography of the earth’s surface. The present study area, Kota Bharu is very prone to floods extends from upstream of Kelantan River near Kemubu to the downstream area near Kuala Besar. These flood events which occur every year in the study area exhibit a strong bearing on river morphological set-up. In the present study, three satellite imageries of different time periods have been used to manifest the post-flood landform changes. The pre-processing of the images such as subset, geometric corrections and atmospheric corrections were carried-out using ENVI 4.5 followed by the analysis processes. Twenty sets of cross sections were plotted using software Erdas 9.2, ERDAS and ArcGis 10 for the all three images. The results show a significant change in the length of the cross section which suggest that the geomorphological processes play a key role in carving and shaping the river banks during the floods.

Keywords: flood induced, geomorphic imprints, Kelantan river, Malaysia

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Authors: Melese Wondatir

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Flooding ranks among the most destructive natural disasters, impacting millions of individuals globally and resulting in substantial economic, social, and environmental repercussions. This study's objective was to create a comprehensive model that assesses the Nile River basin's susceptibility to flood damage and improves existing flood risk management strategies. Authorities responsible for enacting policies and implementing measures may benefit from this research to acquire essential information about the flood, including its scope and susceptible areas. The identification of severe flood damage locations and efficient mitigation techniques were made possible by the use of geospatial data. Slope, elevation, distance from the river, drainage density, topographic witness index, rainfall intensity, distance from road, NDVI, soil type, and land use type were all used throughout the study to determine the vulnerability of flood damage. Ranking elements according to their significance in predicting flood damage risk was done using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and geospatial approaches. The analysis finds that the most important parameters determining the region's vulnerability are distance from the river, topographic witness index, rainfall, and elevation, respectively. The consistency ratio (CR) value obtained in this case is 0.000866 (<0.1), which signifies the acceptance of the derived weights. Furthermore, 10.84m2, 83331.14m2, 476987.15m2, 24247.29m2, and 15.83m2 of the region show varying degrees of vulnerability to flooding—very low, low, medium, high, and very high, respectively. Due to their close proximity to the river, the northern-western regions of the Nile River basin—especially those that are close to Sudanese cities like Khartoum—are more vulnerable to flood damage, according to the research findings. Furthermore, the AUC ROC curve demonstrates that the categorized vulnerability map achieves an accuracy rate of 91.0% based on 117 sample points. By putting into practice strategies to address the topographic witness index, rainfall patterns, elevation fluctuations, and distance from the river, vulnerable settlements in the area can be protected, and the impact of future flood occurrences can be greatly reduced. Furthermore, the research findings highlight the urgent requirement for infrastructure development and effective flood management strategies in the northern and western regions of the Nile River basin, particularly in proximity to major towns such as Khartoum. Overall, the study recommends prioritizing high-risk locations and developing a complete flood risk management plan based on the vulnerability map.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy process, Blue Nile Basin, geospatial techniques, flood vulnerability, multi-criteria decision making

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Authors: Mohammad Javad Seddighi, Avar Almukhtar

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The occurrence of natural disasters, such as floods and earthquakes, can cause significant damage to heritage sites and surrounding areas. In Iran, the city of Bam was devastated by an earthquake in 2003, which had a major impact on the rivers and watercourses around the city. This study aims to investigate the environmental design techniques and sustainable hazard mitigation strategies that can be employed to preserve heritage sites in the face of natural disasters, using the Bam experience as a case study. The research employs a mixed-methods approach, combining both qualitative and quantitative data collection and analysis methods. The study begins with a comprehensive literature review of recent publications on environmental design techniques and sustainable hazard mitigation strategies in heritage conservation. This is followed by a field study of the rivers and watercourses around Bam, including the Adoori River (Talangoo) and other watercourses, to assess the current conditions and identify potential hazards. The data collected from the field study is analysed using statistical methods and GIS mapping techniques. The findings of this study reveal the importance of sustainable hazard mitigation strategies and environmental design techniques in preserving heritage sites during natural disasters. The study suggests that these techniques can be used to prevent the outbreak of another natural disaster in Bam and the surrounding areas. Specifically, the study recommends the establishment of a comprehensive early warning system, the creation of flood-resistant landscapes, and the use of eco-friendly building materials in the reconstruction of heritage sites. These findings contribute to the current knowledge of sustainable hazard mitigation and environmental design in heritage conservation.

Keywords: natural disasters, heritage conservation, sustainable hazard mitigation, environmental design, landscape architecture, flood management, disaster resilience

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Authors: Xuewei Li, Jingfeng Yuan, Jianliang Zhou

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The 21st century has been called the century of human exploitation of underground space. Due to the characteristics of large quantity, tight schedule, low safety reserve and high uncertainty of deep foundation pit engineering, accidents frequently occur in deep foundation pit engineering, causing huge economic losses and casualties. With the successful application of information technology in the construction industry, building information modeling has become a research hotspot in the field of architectural engineering. Therefore, the application of building information modeling (BIM) and other information communication technologies (ICTs) in construction safety management is of great significance to improve the level of safety management. This research summed up the mechanism of the deep foundation pit engineering accident through the fault tree analysis to find the control factors of deep foundation pit engineering safety management, the deficiency existing in the traditional deep foundation pit construction site safety management. According to the accident cause mechanism and the specific process of deep foundation pit construction, the hazard information of deep foundation pit engineering construction site was identified, and the hazard list was obtained, including early warning information. After that, the system framework was constructed by analyzing the early warning information demand and early warning function demand of the safety management system of deep foundation pit. Finally, the safety management system of deep foundation pit construction site based on BIM through combing the database and Web-BIM technology was developed, so as to realize the three functions of real-time positioning of construction site personnel, automatic warning of entering a dangerous area, real-time monitoring of deep foundation pit structure deformation and automatic warning. This study can initially improve the current situation of safety management in the construction site of deep foundation pit. Additionally, the active control before the occurrence of deep foundation pit accidents and the whole process dynamic control in the construction process can be realized so as to prevent and control the occurrence of safety accidents in the construction of deep foundation pit engineering.

Keywords: Web-BIM, safety management, deep foundation pit, construction

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Authors: Belagoune Fares, Boutoutaou Djamel

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The study on floods in Algeria established by the National Agency of Water Resources (ANRH) shows that the country is confronted with the phenomenon of very destructive floods and floods especially in arid and semiarid regions. Flooding of rivers in these areas is less known. They are characterized by their sudden duration (rain showers, thunderstorm).The duration of the flood is of the order of minutes to hours. The human and material damage caused by these floods were still high. The study area encompasses three watersheds in semi-arid and arid south and Algeria. THERE are pools of Chott-Melghir (68,751 km2), highland Constantine-07 (9578 km2) and El Hodna-05 basin (25,843 km2). The total area of this zone is about 104,500km2.Studies of protection against floods and design studies of hydraulic structures (spillway, storm basin, etc.) require the raw data which is often unknown in several places particularly at ungauged wadis of these areas. This makes it very difficult to schedules and managers working in the field of hydraulic studies. The objective of this study and propose a methodology for determining flows in the absence of observations in the semi-arid and arid south eastern Algeria. The objective of the study is to propose a methodology for these areas of flood calculation for ungauged rivers.

Keywords: flood, watershed, specific flow, coefficient of variation, arid

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Authors: Varis Ransibrahmanakul, Doug Pirhalla, Scott Sheridan, Cameron Lee

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U.S. coastal areas and ecosystems are facing multiple sea level rise threats and effects: heavy rain events, cyclones, and changing wind and weather patterns all influence coastal flooding, sedimentation, and erosion along critical barrier islands and can strongly impact habitat resiliency and water quality in protected habitats. These impacts are increasing over time and have accelerated the need for new tracking techniques, models and tools of flood risk to support enhanced preparedness for coastal management and mitigation. To address this issue, NOAA National Ocean Service (NOS) evaluated new metrics from satellite altimetry AVISO/Copernicus and MODIS IR flood extents to isolate nodes atmospheric variability indicative of elevated sea level and nuisance flood events. Using de-trended time series of cross-shelf sea surface heights (SSH), we identified specific Self Organizing Maps (SOM) nodes and transitions having a strongest regional association with oceanic spatial patterns (e.g., heightened downwelling favorable wind-stress and enhanced southward coastal transport) indicative of elevated coastal sea levels. Results show the impacts of the inverted barometer effect as well as the effects of surface wind forcing; Ekman-induced transport along broad expanses of the U.S. eastern coastline. Higher sea levels and corresponding localized flooding are associated with either pattern indicative of enhanced on-shore flow, deepening cyclones, or local- scale winds, generally coupled with an increased local to regional precipitation. These findings will support an integration of satellite products and will inform seasonal outlook model development supported through NOAAs Climate Program Office and NOS office of Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS). Overall results will prioritize ecological areas and coastal lab facilities at risk based on numbers of nuisance flood projected and inform coastal management of flood risk around low lying areas subjected to bank erosion.

Keywords: AVISO satellite altimetry SSHA, MODIS IR flood map, nuisance flood, remote sensing of flood

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Authors: Prejily Thomas John

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Flooding of urban areas often has an adverse impact on the dense population residing in cities. The vulnerable areas are the most affected due to flooding, which even results in loss of life. The increasing trend of urban floods is a universal phenomenon and leads to a vital loss in the physical, economic, social, and environmental dimensions. The shift from floods being natural disasters to man-made disasters due to unplanned urban growth is evident from national and international reports. Thiruvalla, bordered by the Manimala River in the Pathanamthitta district, is an important urban node and a drainage point of various estuaries. The city is often faced with flash floods and overflow from rivers since it is a low-lying land. The need for urban flood resilience for planned urban development is a necessity for livability in consideration of the topography. The paper focuses on developing an urban design framework in everyday urban spaces through the principles of resilient urbanism. The principles guide the creation of flood-resilient spaces and productive urban landscapes for the city to enable better and safer living conditions. A flood-resilient city not only prepares the city for disasters but also improves the ecological and economic conditions.

Keywords: everyday urban spaces, flood resilience, resilient urbanism, productive urban landscapes

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Authors: Abdelghani Leghouchi

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This study aims to predict the consequences associated with the propagation of the flood wave that may occur after the failure of the Taksebt dam and suggest an efficient emergency action plan (EAP) for mitigation purposes. To achieve the objectives of this study, the hydrodynamic model HEC-RAS 2D was used for the flood routing of the dam break wave, which gave an estimate of the hydraulic characteristics downstream the Taksebt dam. Geospatial analysis of the simulation results conducted in a Geographic information system (GIS) environment showed that many residential areas are considered to be in danger in case of the Taksebt dam break event. Based on the obtained results, an emergency actions plan was suggested to moderate the causalities in the downstream area at risk. Overall, the present study showed that the integration of 2D hydraulic modeling and GIS provides great capabilities in providing realistic view of the dam break wave propagation that enhances assessing the associated risks and proposing appropriate mitigation measures.

Keywords: taksebt dam, dam break, wave propagation time, HEC-RAS 2D

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Authors: Josué Alfredo Tomas Machaca Fajardo, Jhon Elvis Chahua Janampa, Pedro Rau Lavado

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A flood vulnerability index was developed for the Piura River watershed in northern Peru using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to assess flood risk. The official methodology to assess risk from natural hazards in Peru was introduced in 1980 and proved effective for aiding complex decision-making. This method relies in part on decision-makers defining subjective correlations between variables to identify high-risk areas. While risk identification and ensuing response activities benefit from a qualitative understanding of influences, this method does not take advantage of the advent of national and international data collection efforts, which can supplement our understanding of risk. Furthermore, this method does not take advantage of broadly applied statistical methods such as PCA, which highlight central indicators of vulnerability. Nowadays, information processing is much faster and allows for more objective decision-making tools, such as PCA. The approach presented here develops a tool to improve the current flood risk assessment in the Peruvian basin. Hence, the spatial analysis of the census and other datasets provides a better understanding of the current land occupation and a basin-wide distribution of services and human populations, a necessary step toward ultimately reducing flood risk in Peru. PCA allows the simplification of a large number of variables into a few factors regarding social, economic, physical and environmental dimensions of vulnerability. There is a correlation between the location of people and the water availability mainly found in rivers. For this reason, a comprehensive vision of the population location around the river basin is necessary to establish flood prevention policies. The grouping of 5x5 km gridded areas allows the spatial analysis of flood risk rather than assessing political divisions of the territory. The index was applied to the Peruvian region of Piura, where several flood events occurred in recent past years, being one of the most affected regions during the ENSO events in Peru. The analysis evidenced inequalities for the access to basic services, such as water, electricity, internet and sewage, between rural and urban areas.

Keywords: assess risk, flood risk, indicators of vulnerability, principal component analysis

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Authors: Ting-Yu Hsu, Shyu-Yu Wu, Shieh-Kung Huang, Hung-Wei Chiang, Kung-Chun Lu, Pei-Yang Lin, Kuo-Liang Wen

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Regional earthquake early warning (EEW) systems are not suitable for Taiwan, as most destructive seismic hazards arise due to in-land earthquakes. These likely cause the lead-time provided by regional EEW systems before a destructive earthquake wave arrives to become null. On the other hand, an on-site EEW system can provide more lead-time at a region closer to an epicenter, since only seismic information of the target site is required. Instead of leveraging the information of several stations, the on-site system extracts some P-wave features from the first few seconds of vertical ground acceleration of a single station and performs a prediction of the oncoming earthquake intensity at the same station according to these features. Since seismometers could be triggered by non-earthquake events such as a passing of a truck or other human activities, to reduce the likelihood of false alarms, a seismometer was installed at three different locations on the same site and the performance of the EEW system for these three sensor locations were discussed. The results show that the location on the ground of the first floor of a school building maybe a good choice, since the false alarms could be reduced and the cost for installation and maintenance is the lowest.

Keywords: earthquake early warning, on-site, seismometer location, support vector machine

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Authors: Chandranath Chatterjee, Amina Khatun, Bhabagrahi Sahoo

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With the changing climate, precipitation events are intensified in the tropical river basins. Since these river basins are significantly influenced by the monsoonal rainfall pattern, critical impacts are observed on the agricultural practices in the downstream river reaches. This study analyses the crop damage and associated flood risk in terms of net benefit in the paddy-dominated tropical Indian delta of the Mahanadi River. The Mahanadi River basin lies in eastern part of the Indian sub-continent and is greatly affected by the southwest monsoon rainfall extending from the month of June to September. This river delta is highly flood-prone and has suffered from recurring high floods, especially after the 2000s. In this study, the lumped conceptual model, Nedbør Afstrømnings Model (NAM) from the suite of MIKE models, is used for rainfall-runoff modeling. The NAM model is laterally integrated with the MIKE11-Hydrodynamic (HD) model to route the runoffs up to the head of the delta region. To obtain the precipitation-derived future projected discharges at the head of the delta, nine Global Climate Models (GCMs), namely, BCC-CSM1.1(m), GFDL-CM3, GFDL-ESM2G, HadGEM2-AO, IPSL-CM5A-LR, IPSL-CM5A-MR, MIROC5, MIROC-ESM-CHEM and NorESM1-M, available in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 5 (CMIP5) archive are considered. These nine GCMs are previously found to best-capture the Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall. Based on the performance of the nine GCMs in reproducing the historical discharge pattern, three GCMs (HadGEM2-AO, IPSL-CM5A-MR and MIROC-ESM-CHEM) are selected. A higher Taylor Skill Score is considered as the GCM selection criteria. Thereafter, the 10-year return period design flood is estimated using L-moments based flood frequency analysis for the historical and three future projected periods (2010-2039, 2040-2069 and 2070-2099) under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. A non-dimensional hydrograph analysis is performed to obtain the hydrographs for the historical/projected 10-year return period design floods. These hydrographs are forced into the calibrated and validated coupled 1D-2D hydrodynamic model, MIKE FLOOD, to simulate the flood inundation in the delta region. Historical and projected flood risk is defined based on the information about the flood inundation simulated by the MIKE FLOOD model and the inundation depth-damage-duration relationship of a normal rice variety cultivated in the river delta. In general, flood risk is expected to increase in all the future projected time periods as compared to the historical episode. Further, in comparison to the 2010s (2010-2039), an increased flood risk in the 2040s (2040-2069) is shown by all the three selected GCMs. However, the flood risk then declines in the 2070s as we move towards the end of the century (2070-2099). The methodology adopted herein for flood risk assessment is one of its kind and may be implemented in any world-river basin. The results obtained from this study can help in future flood preparedness by implementing suitable flood adaptation strategies.

Keywords: flood frequency analysis, flood risk, global climate models (GCMs), paddy cultivation

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Authors: Nirman Kumar Ojha

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Bamboo plantation can be integrated for natural embankment against flood and live fencing against wild animals, at the same time provide economic opportunity for the poor farmers as a sustainable solution and adaptation alternative. 2010 flood in the Rui River completely inundated fields of four VDCs in Madi, Chitwan National Park with extensive bank erosion. The main aim of this action research was to identify an economically sustainable natural embankment against flood and also providing wildlife friendly fencing to reduce human-wildlife conflict. Community people especially poor farmers were trained for soil testing, land identification, plantation, and the harvesting regime, nursery set up and intercropping along with bamboo plantation on the edge of the river bank in order to reduce or minimize soil erosion. Results show that farmers are able to establish cost efficient and economically sustainable river embankment with bamboo plantation also creating a fence for wildlife which has also promoted bamboo cultivation and conservation. This action research has amalgamated flood control and wildlife control with the livelihood of the farmers which otherwise would cost huge resource. Another major impact of the bamboo plantation is its role in climate change and its adaptation process reducing degradation and improving vegetation cover contributing to landscape management. Based on this study, we conclude that bamboo plantation in Madi, Chitwan promoted the livelihood of the poor farmers providing a sustainable economic solution to reduce bank erosion, human-wildlife conflict and contributes to landscape management.

Keywords: climate change and conservation, economic opportunity, flood control, national park

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Authors: Takahiro Katayama, Hsueh-Sheng Chang

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Due to the global climate change, it has increased the extreme rainfall that led to serious floods around the world. In recent years, urbanization and population growth also tend to increase the number of impervious surfaces, resulting in significant loss of life and property during floods especially for the urban areas of Taiwan. In the past, the primary governmental response to floods was structural flood control and the only flood protection standards in use were the design standards. However, these design standards of flood control facilities are generally calculated based on current hydrological conditions. In the face of future extreme events, there is a high possibility to surpass existing design standards and cause damages directly and indirectly to the public. To cope with the frequent occurrence of floods in recent years, it has been pointed out that there is a need for a different standard called FPSR (Flood Protection Standard of Regions) in Taiwan. FPSR is mainly used for disaster reduction and used to ensure that hydraulic facilities draining regional flood immediately under specific return period. FPSR could convey a level of flood risk which is useful for land use planning and reflect the disaster situations that a region can bear. However, little has been reported on FPSR and its impacts to the public in Taiwan. Hence, this study proposes a quantity procedure to evaluate the FPSR. This study aimed to examine FPSR of the region and public perceptions of and knowledge about FPSR, as well as the public’s WTP (willingness to pay) for FPSR. The research is conducted via literature review and questionnaire method. Firstly, this study will review the domestic and international research on the FPSR, and provide the theoretical framework of FPSR. Secondly, CVM (Contingent Value Method) has been employed to conduct this survey and using double-bounded dichotomous choice, close-ended format elicits households WTP for raising the protection level to understand the social costs. The samplings of this study are citizens living in Taichung city, Taiwan and 700 samplings were chosen in this study. In the end, this research will continue working on surveys, finding out which factors determining WTP, and provide some recommendations for adaption policies for floods in the future.

Keywords: climate change, CVM (Contingent Value Method), FPSR (Flood Protection Standard of Regions), urban flooding

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Authors: Nirmala Lama

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The construction of high dams has led to significant challenges in managing flow rates discharging over spillways, resulting in cavitation damages on hydraulic surfaces. To address this, aerator devices were designed and installed to promote fore aeration, thereby controlling and mitigating damages caused by cavitation. Consequently, these aerator types, three-dimensional aerators (3DAEs), have demonstrated superior efficiency in introducing forced air into the flow.This research focuses on the installation and evaluation of three-dimensional aerator devices at the high discharge spillway surface. In the laboratory, the air concentration downstream of the hydraulic structures was extensively measured, and the data were analyzed in details.Multiple flow scenarios and structural arrangements of the aerators were adopted for the study. The outcomes of these experiments are listed as In terms of air concentration value, the comparison between 3 DAE (three-dimensional aerator) with offset only and offset with ramp reveals significant differences. The concentration value on the side wall was justified. The side cavity length was found to increase with higher approach Froude numbers and lateral enlargement widths. Furthermore, 3DAE exhibited shorter side cavity lengths compared to three-dimensional aerator devices without ramps (3DAD), a beneficial features for controlling water fins. An empirical formula to express the side cavity length was derived from the measured data. Also, the comparison were made on the basis of water fin formation between the different arrangements of 3D aerators. In conclusion, this research provides valuable insights into the performance of three-dimensional aerators in mitigating cavitation damages and controlling water fins in high dam spillways. The findings offer practical implications for designers and engineers seeking to enhance the efficiency and safety of hydraulic structures subjected to high flow rates.

Keywords: three-dimension aerator, cavity, water fin, air entrainment

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Authors: Faizin Mulia Rizkika, Iqbal Jabbari Mufti, Muhammad R. Y. Nugraha, Fadil Maulidir Sube

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Flooding is an event of ponding on the flat area around the river as a result of the overflow of river water was not able to be accommodated by the river and may cause damage to the infrastructure of a region. This study aimed to analyze the data of Digital Elevation Model (DEM) for information that plays a role in the mapping of zones prone to flooding, mapping the distribution of zones prone to flooding that occurred in the Citarum upstream using secondary data and software (ArcGIS, MapInfo), this assessment was made distribution map of flooding, there were 13 counties / districts dam flood-prone areas in Bandung, and the most vulnerable districts are areas Baleendah-Dayeuhkolot-Bojongsoang-Banjaran. The area has a low slope and the same limits with boundary rivers and areas that have excessive land use, so the water catchment area is reduced.

Keywords: mitigation, flood, citarum, DEM

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Authors: Morteza Esfandiari, Shabnam Jabari, Heather MacGrath, David Coleman

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Flood is a severe issue in different places in the world as well as the city of Fredericton, New Brunswick, Canada. The downtown area of Fredericton is close to the Saint John River, which is susceptible to flood around May every year. Recently, the frequency of flooding seems to be increased, especially after the fact that the downtown area and surrounding urban/agricultural lands got flooded in two consecutive years in 2018 and 2019. In order to have an explicit vision of flood span and damage to affected areas, it is necessary to use either flood inundation modelling or satellite data. Due to contingent availability and weather dependency of optical satellites, and limited existing data for the high cost of hydrodynamic models, it is not always feasible to rely on these sources of data to generate quality flood maps after or during the catastrophe. Height Above the Nearest Drainage (HAND), a state-of-the-art topo-hydrological index, normalizes the height of a basin based on the relative elevation along with the stream network and specifies the gravitational or the relative drainage potential of an area. HAND is a relative height difference between the stream network and each cell on a Digital Terrain Model (DTM). The stream layer is provided through a multi-step, time-consuming process which does not always result in an optimal representation of the river centerline depending on the topographic complexity of that region. HAND is used in numerous case studies with quite acceptable and sometimes unexpected results because of natural and human-made features on the surface of the earth. Some of these features might cause a disturbance in the generated model, and consequently, the model might not be able to predict the flow simulation accurately. We propose to include a previously existing stream layer generated by the province of New Brunswick and benefit from culvert maps to improve the water flow simulation and accordingly the accuracy of HAND model. By considering these parameters in our processing, we were able to increase the accuracy of the model from nearly 74% to almost 92%. The improved model can be used for generating highly accurate flood maps, which is necessary for future urban planning and flood damage estimation without any need for satellite imagery or hydrodynamic computations.

Keywords: HAND, DTM, rapid floodplain, simplified conceptual models

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Authors: Sami Houry

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Complex systems exhibit universal characteristics as they near a tipping point. Among them are common generic early warning signals which precede critical transitions. These signals include: critical slowing down in which the rate of recovery from perturbations decreases over time; an increase in the variance of the state variable; an increase in the skewness of the state variable; an increase in the autocorrelations of the state variable; flickering between different states; and an increase in spatial correlations over time. The presence of the signals has management implications, as the identification of the signals near the tipping point could allow management to identify intervention points. Despite the applications of the generic early warning signals in various scientific fields, such as fisheries, ecology and finance, a review of literature did not identify any applications that address the program student withdrawal problem at the undergraduate distance universities. This area could benefit from the application of generic early warning signals as the program withdrawal rate amongst distance students is higher than the program withdrawal rate at face-to-face conventional universities. This research specifically assessed the generic early warning signals through an intensive case study of undergraduate program student withdrawal at a Canadian distance university. The university is non-cohort based due to its system of continuous course enrollment where students can enroll in a course at the beginning of every month. The assessment of the signals was achieved through the comparison of the incidences of generic early warning signals among students who withdrew or simply became inactive in their undergraduate program of study, the true positives, to the incidences of the generic early warning signals among graduates, the false positives. This was achieved through significance testing. Research findings showed support for the signal pertaining to the rise in flickering which is represented in the increase in the student’s non-pass rates prior to withdrawing from a program; moderate support for the signals of critical slowing down as reflected in the increase in the time a student spends in a course; and moderate support for the signals on increase in autocorrelation and increase in variance in the grade variable. The findings did not support the signal on the increase in skewness of the grade variable. The research also proposes a new signal based on the fractal-like characteristic of student behavior. The research also sought to extend knowledge by investigating whether the emergence of a program withdrawal status is self-similar or fractal-like at multiple levels of observation, specifically the program level and the course level. In other words, whether the act of withdrawal at the program level is also present at the course level. The findings moderately supported self-similarity as a potential signal. Overall, the assessment of the signals suggests that the signals, with the exception with the increase of skewness, could be utilized as a predictive management tool and potentially add one more tool, the fractal-like characteristic of withdrawal, as an additional signal in addressing the student program withdrawal problem.

Keywords: critical transitions, fractals, generic early warning signals, program student withdrawal

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Authors: Sujan Tyata, Alison Shilpakar, Nayan Bakhadyo, Kushal K. C., Abhas Maskey

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The Koshi River, acknowledged as the "Sorrow of Bihar," poses intricate challenges characterized by recurrent flooding. Within the Koshi Basin, floods have historically inflicted damage on infrastructure, agriculture, and settlements. The Koshi River exhibits a highly braided pattern across a 48 km stretch to the south of Chatara. The devastating flood from the Koshi River, which began in Nepal's Sunsari District in 2008, led to significant casualties and the destruction of agricultural areas.The catastrophe was exacerbated by a levee breach, underscoring the vulnerability of the region's flood defenses. A comprehensive understanding of environmental changes in the area is unveiled through satellite imagery analysis. This analysis facilitates the identification of high-risk zones and their contributing factors. Employing remote sensing, the analysis specifically pinpoints locations vulnerable to levee breaches. Topographical features of the area along with longitudinal and cross sectional profiles of the river and levee obtained from digital elevation model are used in the hydrological analysis for assessment of flood. To mitigate the impact of floods, the strategy involves the establishment of reservoirs upstream. Leveraging satellite data, optimal locations for water storage are identified. This approach presents a dual opportunity to not only alleviate flood risks but also catalyze the implementation of pumped storage hydropower initiatives. This holistic approach addresses environmental challenges while championing sustainable energy solutions.

Keywords: flood mitigation, levee, remote sensing, satellite imagery analysis, sustainable energy solutions

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Authors: Azazhu Wassie

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This study tried to analyze the impact of the hydrologic and hydraulic parameters (catchment area, rainfall intensity, and runoff coefficient) on the referenced study area. The study was conducted in June 2023. The Aremenie River Dam has 30 years of record, which is reasonably sufficient data. It is a matter of common experience that, due to the failure of an instrument or the absence of a gauged river, the rainfall record at quite a number of stations is incomplete. From the analysis, the 50-year return period design flood is 62.685 m³/s at 1.2 hr peak time. This implies that for this watershed, the peak flood rate per km² area of the watershed is about this value, which ensures that high rainfall in the area can generate a higher rate of runoff per km² of the generating catchment. The Aremenie Rivers carry a large amount of sediment along with water. These sediments are deposited in the reservoir upstream of the dam because of the reduction in velocity. Sediment reduces the available capacity of the reservoir with continuous sedimentation; the useful life of the reservoir goes on decreasing.

Keywords: dam design, peak flood, rainfall, reservoir capacity, runoff

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Authors: Farhan Aljuaidi

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The rapid expansion of Alkarj city, Saudi Arabia, towards the outlet of Wadi AlAin is critical for the planners and decision makers. Nowadays, two major projects such as Salman bin Abdulaziz University compound and new industrial area are developed in this flood prone area where no channels are clear and identified. The main contribution of this study is to divert the flow away from these vital projects by reconstructing new channels. To do so, Lidar data were used to generate contour lines for the actual elevation of the highways and local roads. These data were analyzed and compared to the contour lines derived from the topographical maps 1:50.000. The magnitude of the expected flow was estimated using Snyder's Model based on the morphometric data acquired by DEM of the catchment area. The results indicate that maximum discharge peak reaches 2694,3 m3/sec, the mean is 303,7 m3/sec and the minimum is 74,3 m3/sec. The runoff was estimated at 252,2. 610 m3/s, the mean is 41,5. 610 m3/s and the minimum is 12,4. 610 m3/s.

Keywords: Desert flood, Saudi Arabia, Snyder's Model, flow estimation

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Authors: Kudu Dangana

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The occurrences of disaster often call for the support of both government and non-government organization. Consequently, disaster relief remains extremely important in disaster management. However, this approach alone does not proactively address the need to adduce the human and environment impacts of future disasters. Recent thinking in the area of disaster management is indicative of the need for a new paradigm that focuses on reducing the risk of disasters with the involvement and participation of communities. This paper reviews the need for communities to place more emphasis on a holistic approach to disaster risk reduction. This approach involves risk assessment, risk reduction, early warning and disaster preparedness in order to effectively address the reduction of social, economic, and environmental costs of disasters nationally and at the global level.

Keywords: disaster, early, management, warning, relief, risk vulnerability

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Authors: Claude Nsobya, Alice Moncaster, Karen Potter, Jed Ramsay

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The shift in Flood Risk Governance (FRG) has moved away from traditional approaches that solely relied on centralized decision-making and structural flood defenses. Instead, there is now the adoption of integrated flood risk management measures that involve various actors and stakeholders. This new approach emphasizes people-centered approaches, including adaptation and learning. This shift to a diversity of FRG approaches has been identified as a significant factor in enhancing resilience. Resilience here refers to a community's ability to withstand, absorb, recover, adapt, and potentially transform in the face of flood events. It is argued that if the FRG merely focused on the conventional 'fighting the water' - flood defense - communities would not be resilient. The move to these people-centered approaches also implies that communities will be more involved in FRG. It is suggested that effective flood risk governance influences resilience through meaningful community involvement, and effective community engagement is vital in shaping community resilience to floods. Successful community participation not only uses context-specific indigenous knowledge but also develops a sense of ownership and responsibility. Through capacity development initiatives, it can also raise awareness and all these help in building resilience. Recent Flood Risk Management (FRM) projects have thus had increasing community involvement, with varied conceptualizations of such community engagement in the academic literature on FRM. In the context of overland floods, there has been a substantial body of literature on Flood Risk Governance and Management. Yet, groundwater flooding has gotten little attention despite its unique qualities, such as its persistence for weeks or months, slow onset, and near-invisibility. There has been a little study in this area on how successful community involvement in Flood Risk Governance may improve community resilience to groundwater flooding in particular. This paper focuses on a case study of a flood risk management project in the United Kingdom. Buckinghamshire Council is leading Project Groundwater, which is one of 25 significant initiatives sponsored by England's Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) Flood and Coastal Resilience Innovation Programme. DEFRA awarded Buckinghamshire Council and other councils 150 million to collaborate with communities and implement innovative methods to increase resilience to groundwater flooding. Based on a literature review, this paper proposes a new paradigm for effective community engagement in Flood Risk Governance (FRG). This study contends that effective community participation can have an impact on various resilience capacities identified in the literature, including social capital, institutional capital, physical capital, natural capital, human capital, and economic capital. In the case of social capital, for example, successful community engagement can influence social capital through the process of social learning as well as through developing social networks and trust values, which are vital in influencing communities' capacity to resist, absorb, recover, and adapt. The study examines community engagement in Project Groundwater using surveys with local communities and documentary analysis to test this notion. The outcomes of the study will inform community involvement activities in Project Groundwater and may shape DEFRA policies and guidelines for community engagement in FRM.

Keywords: flood risk governance, community, resilience, groundwater flooding

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Authors: U. V. Okpala

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Flood is an overflow of water that submerges or ‘drowns’ land. In developing countries it occurs as a result of blocking of natural and man-made drainages and poor maintenance of water dams/reservoirs which seldom give way after persistent heavy down pours. In coastal lowlands and swamp lands, flooding is aided mainly by blocked channels and indiscriminate sand fling of coastal swamp areas and natural drainage channel for urban development/constructions. In this paper, the causes of flood and possible scientific, technological, political, economic and social impacts of flood disaster on the environment a case study of Anambra State have been studied. Often times flooding is caused by climate change, especially in the developed economy where scientific mitigating options are highly employed. Researchers have identified Green Houses Gases (GHG) as the cause of global climate change. The recent flood disaster in Anambra State which caused physical damage to structures, social dislocation, contamination of clean drinking water, spread of water-borne diseases, shortage of crops and food supplies, death of non-tolerant tree species, disruption in transportation system, serious economic loss and psychological trauma is a function of climate change. There is need to encourage generation of renewable energy sources, use of less carbon intensive fuels and other energy efficient sources. Carbon capture/sequestration, proper management of our drainage systems and good maintenance of our dams are good option towards saving the environment.

Keywords: flooding, climate change, carbon capture, energy systems

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Authors: Nikita Rajendra Sharma, Jai Prakash Kushvah, Gerhard Rinkenauer

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Driving a car is a discrete aiming movement in which drivers aim at successful extraction of relevant information and elimination of potentially distracting one. It is the motor preparation which enables one to react to certain stimuli onsite by allowing perceptual process for optimal adjustment. Drivers prepare their responses according to the available resources of advanced and ongoing information to drive efficiently. It requires constant programming and reprogramming of the motor system. The reaction time (RT) is shorter when a response signal is preceded by a warning signal. The reason behind this reduced time in responding to targets is that the warning signal causes the participant to prepare for the upcoming response by updating the motor program before the execution. While performing the primary task of changing lanes while driving, the simultaneous occurrence of additional information during the presentation of cues (congruent or incongruent with respect to target cue) might impact the motor preparation and execution. The presence of additional information (other than warning or response signal) between warning signal and imperative stimulus influences human motor preparation to a reasonable extent. The present study was aimed to assess the impact of congruent and incongruent additional information (with respect to imperative stimulus) on driving performance (reaction time, steering wheel amplitude, and steering wheel duration) during a lane change task. implementing movement pre-cueing paradigm. 22 young valid car-drivers (Mage = 24.1+/- 3.21 years, M = 10, F = 12, age-range 21-33 years) participated in the study. The study revealed that additional information influenced the overall driving performance as potential distractors and relevant information. Findings suggest that the events of additional information relatively influenced the reaction time and steering wheel angle as potential distractor or irrelevant information. Participants took longer to respond, and higher steering wheel angles were reported for targets coupled with additional information in comparison with warning signs preceded by potential distractors and the participants' response time was more for a higher number of lanes (2 Lanes > 1 Lane). The same additional information appearing interchangeably at warning signals and targets worked as relevant information facilitating the motor programming in the trails where they were congruent with the direction of lane change direction.

Keywords: additional information, lane change task, motor preparation, movement pre-cueing, reaction time, steering wheel amplitude

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Authors: P. Chang, C. Lopez, C. Burbano

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Flood protection zones are riparian buffers that are formed to manage and mitigate the impact of flooding, and in turn, protect local populations. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the Guía Técnica de Criterios para el Acotamiento de las Rondas Hídricas in Colombia against international regulations in Canada and Spain, in order to determine its limitations and contribute to its improvement. The need to establish a specific corridor that allows for the dynamic development of a river is clear; however, limitations present in the Colombian Technical Guide are identified. The study shows that international regulations provide similar concepts as used in Colombia, but additionally integrate aspects such as regionalization that allows for a better characterization of the channel way, and incorporate the frequency of flooding and its probability of occurrence in the concept of risk when determining the protection zone. The case study analyzed in Dosquebradas - Risaralda aimed at comparing the application of the different standards through hydraulic modeling. It highlights that the current Colombian standard does not offer sufficient details in its implementation phase, which leads to a false sense of security related to inaccuracy and lack of data. Furthermore, the study demonstrates how the Colombian norm is ill-adapted to the conditions of Dosquebradas typical of the Andes region, both in the social and hydraulic aspects, and does not reduce the risk, nor does it improve the protection of the population. Our study considers it pertinent to include risk estimation as an integral part of the methodology when establishing protect flood zone, considering the particularity of water systems, as they are characterized by an heterogeneous natural dynamic behavior.

Keywords: environmental corridor, flood zone determination, hydraulic domain, legislation flood protection zone

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Authors: Muhammad Karim Ahmadzai

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Floods are natural phenomena and are an integral part of the water cycle. The majority of them are the result of climatic conditions, but are also affected by the geology and geomorphology of the area, topography and hydrology, the water permeability of the soil and the vegetation cover, as well as by all kinds of human activities and structures. However, from the moment that human lives are at risk and significant economic impact is recorded, this natural phenomenon becomes a natural disaster. Flood management is now a key issue at regional and local levels around the world, affecting human lives and activities. The majority of floods are unlikely to be fully predicted, but it is feasible to reduce their risks through appropriate management plans and constructions. The aim of this Case Study is to identify, and map areas of flood risk in the Khinch District of Panjshir Province, Afghanistan specifically in the area of Peshghore, causing numerous damages. The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the contribution of remote sensing technology and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) in assessing the susceptibility of this region to flood events. Panjsher is facing Seasonal floods and human interventions on streams caused floods. The beds of which have been trampled to build houses and hotels or have been converted into roads, are causing flooding after every heavy rainfall. The streams crossing settlements and areas with high touristic development have been intensively modified by humans, as the pressure for real estate development land is growing. In particular, several areas in Khinch are facing a high risk of extensive flood occurrence. This study concentrates on the construction of a flood susceptibility map, of the study area, by combining vulnerability elements, using the Analytical Hierarchy Process/ AHP. The Analytic Hierarchy Process, normally called AHP, is a powerful yet simple method for making decisions. It is commonly used for project prioritization and selection. AHP lets you capture your strategic goals as a set of weighted criteria that you then use to score projects. This method is used to provide weights for each criterion which Contributes to the Flood Event. After processing of a digital elevation model (DEM), important secondary data were extracted, such as the slope map, the flow direction and the flow accumulation. Together with additional thematic information (Landuse and Landcover, topographic wetness index, precipitation, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, Elevation, River Density, Distance from River, Distance to Road, Slope), these led to the final Flood Risk Map. Finally, according to this map, the Priority Protection Areas and Villages and the structural and nonstructural measures were demonstrated to Minimize the Impacts of Floods on residential and Agricultural areas.

Keywords: flood hazard, flood risk map, flood mitigation measures, AHP analysis

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Authors: Shymaa S. Zaher, Howayda Abd El-Hady, Nehad Khalifa

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Lake Nasser is vital to Egypt as it is the main Nile water reservoir. One of the major challenges in ecological flood is to establish how environmental enrichment in nutrients availability may affect both the biochemical composition of phytoplankton and the species communities. Samples were collected from twenty sites representing different lake sectors along the main channel of the lake during 2017. Generally, phytoplankton distribution during flood season in Lake Nasser indicates the predominance of Cyanophyceae at all lake sectors. Increases in NO₂ (9.31 µg/l) and PO₄ (7.11µg/l) at the Abu-Simble sector are associated with changes in community structure and biochemical composition of phytoplankton, where Cyanophyceae blooming occur associated with retardation in biopolymeric particulate organic carbon. The maximum total biochemical contents (91.29 mg/l) and biopolymeric particulate organic carbon (37.15 mg/l) was found at El-Madiq sector where there was optimum nutrients (NO₂ 0.479 µg/l and PO₄ 5.149µg/l), a highly positive correlation was found between Cyanophyceae and NO₂ in the lake (r = 0.956). A highly positive correlation was detected between carbohydrates and both transparency and pH in the lake (r = 0.974 and 0.787). Also carbohydrates had a positive relation with Bacillariophyceae (r = 0.610). Flood positively alter the water quality of the lake by increasing dissolved oxygen and nutrients enrichment to the aquatic ecosystem, affecting other aquatic organisms of higher trophic levels as economic fishes inhabiting the lake.

Keywords: aquatic microalgae, Aswan high dam lake, biochemical composition, fresh water

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Authors: James Kinyua Gitonga, Toshio Fujimi

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Vulnerability assessment and analysis is essential to solving the degree of damage and loss as a result of natural disasters. Urban flooding causes a major economic loss and casualties, at Mathare residential area in Nairobi, Kenya. High population caused by rural-urban migration, Unemployment, and unplanned urban development are among factors that increase flood vulnerability in Mathare area. This study aims to analyse flood risk physical vulnerabilities in Mathare based on scientific data, research data that includes the Rainfall data, River Mathare discharge rate data, Water runoff data, field survey data and questionnaire survey through sampling of the study area have been used to develop the risk curves. Three structural types of building were identified in the study area, vulnerability and risk curves were made for these three structural types by plotting the relationship between flood depth and damage for each structural type. The results indicate that the structural type with mud wall and mud floor is the most vulnerable building to flooding while the structural type with stone walls and concrete floor is least vulnerable. The vulnerability of building contents is mainly determined by the number of floors, where households with two floors are least vulnerable, and households with a one floor are most vulnerable. Therefore more than 80% of the residential buildings including the property in the building are highly vulnerable to floods consequently exposed to high risk. When estimating the potential casualties/injuries we discovered that the structural types of houses were major determinants where the mud/adobe structural type had casualties of 83.7% while the Masonry structural type had casualties of 10.71% of the people living in these houses. This research concludes that flood awareness, warnings and observing the building codes will enable reduce damage to the structural types of building, deaths and reduce damage to the building contents.

Keywords: flood loss, Mathare Nairobi, risk curve analysis, vulnerability

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Authors: M. Bahari Mehrabani, Hua-Peng Chen

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Management and maintenance of coastal defence structures during the expected life cycle have become a real challenge for decision makers and engineers. Accurate evaluation of the current condition and future performance of flood defence structures is essential for effective practical maintenance strategies on the basis of available field inspection data. Moreover, as coastal defence structures age, it becomes more challenging to implement maintenance and management plans to avoid structural failure. Therefore, condition inspection data are essential for assessing damage and forecasting deterioration of ageing flood defence structures in order to keep the structures in an acceptable condition. The inspection data for flood defence structures are often collected using discrete visual condition rating schemes. In order to evaluate future condition of the structure, a probabilistic deterioration model needs to be utilised. However, existing deterioration models may not provide a reliable prediction of performance deterioration for a long period due to uncertainties. To tackle the limitation, a time-dependent condition-based model associated with a transition probability needs to be developed on the basis of condition grade scheme for flood defences. This paper presents a probabilistic method for predicting future performance deterioration of coastal flood defence structures based on condition grading inspection data and deterioration curves estimated by expert judgement. In condition-based deterioration modelling, the main task is to estimate transition probability matrices. The deterioration process of the structure related to the transition states is modelled according to Markov chain process, and a reliability-based approach is used to estimate the probability of structural failure. Visual inspection data according to the United Kingdom Condition Assessment Manual are used to obtain the initial condition grade curve of the coastal flood defences. The initial curves then modified in order to develop transition probabilities through non-linear regression based optimisation algorithms. The Monte Carlo simulations are then used to evaluate the future performance of the structure on the basis of the estimated transition probabilities. Finally, a case study is given to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method under no-maintenance and medium-maintenance scenarios. Results show that the proposed method can provide an effective predictive model for various situations in terms of available condition grading data. The proposed model also provides useful information on time-dependent probability of failure in coastal flood defences.

Keywords: condition grading, flood defense, performance assessment, stochastic deterioration modelling

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Authors: Pravira Rizki Suwarno, Fanny Aliza Savitri, Priseyola Ayunda Prima, Pipin Surahman, Mahelga Levina Amran, Khoirunisa Ulya Nur Utari, Nora Permatasari

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The Bogowonto River or commonly called the Bhagawanta River, is one of the rivers on Java Island. It is located in Central Java, Indonesia. Its watershed area is 35 km² with 57 km long. This river covers three regencies, namely Wonosobo Regency and Magelang Regency in the upstream and Purworejo Regency in the south and downstream. The Bogowonto River experiences channel narrowing and silting. It is caused by garbage along the river that comes from livestock and household waste. The narrowing channel and siltation cause a capacity reduction of the river to drain flood discharge. Comprehensive and sustainable actions are needed in dealing with current and future floods. Based on these current conditions, a priority scale is required. Therefore, this study aims to determine the priority scale of flood management in Purworejo Regency using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method. This method will determine the appropriate actions based on the rating. In addition, there will be field observations through distributing questionnaires to several parties, including the stakeholders and the community. The results of this study will be in 2 (two) forms of actions, both structurally covering water structures and non-structural, including social, environmental, and law enforcement.

Keywords: analytical hierarchy process, bogowonto, flood control, management

Procedia PDF Downloads 207