Search results for: accident scenarios

Authors: Sejin Jung, Dongho Kang, Byungsik Kim

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Assessing the impact of climate change requires the use of a multi-model ensemble (MME) to quantify uncertainties between scenarios and produce downscaled outlines for simulation of climate under the influence of different factors, including topography. This study decreases climate change scenarios from the 13 global climate models (GCMs) to assess the impacts of future climate change. Unlike South Korea, North Korea lacks in studies using climate change scenarios of the CoupledModelIntercomparisonProject (CMIP5), and only recently did the country start the projection of extreme precipitation episodes. One of the main purposes of this study is to predict changes in the average climatic conditions of North Korea in the future. The result of comparing downscaled climate change scenarios with observation data for a reference period indicates high applicability of the Multi-Model Ensemble (MME). Furthermore, the study classifies climatic zones by applying the Köppen-Geiger climate classification system to the MME, which is validated for future precipitation and temperature. The result suggests that the continental climate (D) that covers the inland area for the reference climate is expected to shift into the temperate climate (C). The coefficient of variation (CVs) in the temperature ensemble is particularly low for the southern coast of the Korean peninsula, and accordingly, a high possibility of the shifting climatic zone of the coast is predicted. This research was supported by a grant (MOIS-DP-2015-05) of Disaster Prediction and Mitigation Technology Development Program funded by Ministry of Interior and Safety (MOIS, Korea).

Keywords: MME, North Korea, Koppen–Geiger, climatic zones, coefficient of variation, CV

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Authors: Tesfay Gidey Bezabeh, Tânia Sofia Oliveira, Josep Crous-Duran, João H. N. Palma

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Ethiopia's economy depends strongly on Coffea arabica production. Coffee, like many other crops, is sensitive to climate change. An urgent development and application of strategies against the negative impacts of climate change on coffee production is important. Agroforestry-based system is one of the strategies that may ensure sustainable coffee production amidst the likelihood of future impacts of climate change. This system involves the combination of trees in buffer extremes, thereby modifying microclimate conditions. This paper assessed coffee production under 1) coffee monoculture and 2) coffee grown using an agroforestry system, under a) current climate and b) two different future climate change scenarios. The study focused on two representative coffee-growing regions of Ethiopia under different soil, climate, and elevation conditions. A process-based growth model (Yield-SAFE) was used to simulate coffee production for a time horizon of 40 years. Climate change scenarios considered were representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. The results revealed that in monoculture systems, the current coffee yields are between 1200-1250 kg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹, with an expected decrease between 4-38% and 20-60% in scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. However, in agroforestry systems, the current yields are between 1600-2200 kg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹; the decrease was lower, ranging between 4-13% and 16-25% in RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. From the results, it can be concluded that coffee production under agroforestry systems has a higher level of resilience when facing future climate change and reinforces the idea of using this type of management in the near future for adapting climate change's negative impacts on coffee production.

Keywords: Albizia gummifera, CORDEX, Ethiopia, HADCM3 model, process-based model

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Authors: Yassir AbdelRazig, Eren Ozguven, Ren Moses

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While there exists a greater understanding of the differences between the driving behaviors of older and younger drivers, there is still a need to further understand how the two groups perform when attempting to perform complex intersection maneuvers. This paper looks to determine if, and to what extent, these differences exist when drivers encounter permissive left-hand turns, pedestrian traffic, two and four-lane intersections, heavy fog, and night conditions. The study will utilize a driving simulator to develop custom drivable scenarios containing one or more of the previously mentioned conditions. 32 younger and 32 older (+65 years) participants perform driving simulation scenarios and have their velocity, time to the nearest oncoming vehicle, accepted and rejected gaps, etc., recorded. The data collected from the simulator is analyzed via Raff’s method and logistic regression in order to determine and compare the critical gaps values of the two cohorts. Out of the parameters considered for this study, only the age of the driver, their experience (if they are a younger driver), the size of a gap, and the presence of pedestrians on the crosswalk proved significant. The results did not support the hypothesis that older drivers would be significantly more conservative in their critical gaps judgment and acceptance.

Keywords: older drivers, simulation, left-turn, human factors

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Authors: Edgard Gnansounoua, Pavel Vaskan, Elia Ruiz Pachón

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This work addresses the economic and environmental performance of integrated biorefineries based on sugarcane juice and residues in the context of Brazil. We have considered four multiproduct scenarios; two from existing Brazilian sugar mills and the others from ethanol autonomous distilleries. They are integrated biorefineries producing first (1G) and second (2G) generation ethanol, sugar, molasses (for animal feed) and electricity. We show the results for the analysis and comparison of the different scenarios using a techno-economic value-based approach and LCA methodology. We have found that all the analysed scenarios show positive values of Climate change and Fossil depletion reduction as compared to the reference systems. However the scenario producing only ethanol shows less efficiency in Human toxicity, Freshwater ecotoxicity and Freshwater eutrophication impacts. The best economic configuration is provided by the scenario with the largest ethanol production. On the other hand, the best environmental performance is presented by the scenario with full integration sugar – 1G2G ethanol production. The integration of 2G based residues in a 1G ethanol production plant leads to positive environmental impacts compared to the conventional 1G industrial plant but proves to be more expensive.

Keywords: sugarcane, biorefinery, 1G/2G bioethanol integration, LCA, Brazil

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Authors: Hyeon-Kyo Lim, Tong-Il Jang, Yong-Hee Lee

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For an operator in a nuclear power plant, human error is one of the most dreaded factors that may result in unexpected accidents. The possibility of human errors may be low, but the risk of them would be unimaginably enormous. Thus, for accident prevention, it is quite indispensable to analyze the influence of any factors which may raise the possibility of human errors. During the past decades, not a few research results showed that performance of human operators may vary over time due to lots of factors. Among them, stress is known to be an indirect factor that may cause human errors and result in mental illness. Until now, not a few assessment tools have been developed to assess stress level of human workers. However, it still is questionable to utilize them for human performance anticipation which is related with human error possibility, because they were mainly developed from the viewpoint of mental health rather than industrial safety. Stress level of a person may go up or down with work time. In that sense, if they would be applicable in the safety aspect, they should be able to assess the variation resulted from work time at least. Therefore, this study aimed to compare their applicability for safety purpose. More than 10 kinds of work stress tools were analyzed with reference to assessment items, assessment and analysis methods, and follow-up measures which are known to close related factors with work stress. The results showed that most tools mainly focused their weights on some common organizational factors such as demands, supports, and relationships, in sequence. Their weights were broadly similar. However, they failed to recommend practical solutions. Instead, they merely advised to set up overall counterplans in PDCA cycle or risk management activities which would be far from practical human error prevention. Thus, it was concluded that application of stress assessment tools mainly developed for mental health seemed to be impractical for safety purpose with respect to human performance anticipation, and that development of a new assessment tools would be inevitable if anyone wants to assess stress level in the aspect of human performance variation and accident prevention. As a consequence, as practical counterplans, this study proposed a new scheme for assessment of work stress level of a human operator that may vary over work time which is closely related with the possibility of human errors.

Keywords: human error, human performance, work stress, assessment tool, time-variant, accident prevention

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Authors: Fatemehsadat Mortazavizadeh, Amin Dehghani, Majid Mirzaei, Nurulhuda Binti Mohammad Ramli, Adnan Dehghani

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Flood is Malaysia's most common and serious natural disaster. Kelantan River Basin is a tropical basin that experiences a rainy season during North-East Monsoon from November to March. It is also one of the hardest hit areas in Peninsular Malaysia during the heavy monsoon rainfall. Considering the consequences of the flood events, it is essential to develop the flood inundation map as part of the mitigation approach. In this study, the delineation of flood inundation zone in the area of Kelantan River basin using a hydrodynamic model is done by HEC-RAS, QGIS and ArcMap. The streamflow data has been generated with the weather generator based on the observation data. Then, the data is statistically analyzed with the Extreme Value (EV1) method for 2-, 5-, 25-, 50- and 100-year return periods. The minimum depth, maximum depth, mean depth, and the standard deviation of all the scenarios, including the OBS, are observed and analyzed. Based on the results, generally, the value of the data increases with the return period for all the scenarios. However, there are certain scenarios that have different results, which not all the data obtained are increasing with the return period. Besides, OBS data resulted in the middle range within Scenario 1 to Scenario 40.

Keywords: flood inundation, kelantan river basin, hydrodynamic model, extreme value analysis

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Authors: Rajinder Singh, Ram Valluru

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Chain Ladder (CL) method, Expected Loss Ratio (ELR) method and Bornhuetter-Ferguson (BF) method, in addition to more complex transition-rate modeling, are commonly used actuarial reserving methods in general insurance. There is limited published research about their relative performance in the context of Mortgage Insurance (MI). In our experience, these traditional techniques pose unique challenges and do not provide stable claim estimates for medium to longer term liabilities. The relative strengths and weaknesses among various alternative approaches revolve around: stability in the recent loss development pattern, sufficiency and reliability of loss development data, and agreement/disagreement between reported losses to date and ultimate loss estimate. CL method results in volatile reserve estimates, especially for accident periods with little development experience. The ELR method breaks down especially when ultimate loss ratios are not stable and predictable. While the BF method provides a good tradeoff between the loss development approach (CL) and ELR, the approach generates claim development and ultimate reserves that are disconnected from the ever-to-date (ETD) development experience for some accident years that have more development experience. Further, BF is based on subjective a priori assumption. The fundamental shortcoming of these methods is their inability to model exogenous factors, like the economy, which impact various cohorts at the same chronological time but at staggered points along their life-time development. This paper proposes an alternative approach of parametrizing the loss development curve and using logistic regression to generate the ultimate loss estimate for each homogeneous group (accident year or delinquency period). The methodology was tested on an actual MI claim development dataset where various cohorts followed a sigmoidal trend, but levels varied substantially depending upon the economic and operational conditions during the development period spanning over many years. The proposed approach provides the ability to indirectly incorporate such exogenous factors and produce more stable loss forecasts for reserving purposes as compared to the traditional CL and BF methods.

Keywords: actuarial loss reserving techniques, logistic regression, parametric function, volatility

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Authors: Samuel Emeka Anarah, Kingsley Nnaemeka Ogbu, Obasi Arinze

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Quantifying the hydrological response due to changes in climate change is imperative for proper management of water resources within a watershed. The impact of climate change on the hydrology of the Upper Ebony River (UER) watershed, South East Nigeria, was studied using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. A climatological time series analysis from 1985 - 2014 using non-parametric test showed significant negative trends in precipitation and relative humidity trend while minimum and maximum temperature, solar radiation and wind speed showed significant positive trends. Future hypothetical land-use change scenarios (Scenarios 1, 2, 3 and 4) representing urbanization and conversion of forest to agricultural land were combined with future downscaled climate model (CSIRO-Mk3-6-0) and simulated in SWAT model. Relative to the Baseline scenario (2005 - 2014), the results showed a decrease in streamflow by 10.29%, 26.20%, 11.80% and 26.72% for Scenarios 1, 2, 3, and 4 respectively. Model results suggest development of adaptation strategies to cope with the predicted hydrological conditions under future climate change in the watershed.

Keywords: climate change, hydrology, runoff, SWAT model

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Authors: Terry Liang Khin Teo, Sun Woh Lye, Kai Lun Brendon Goh

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As applied to dynamic monitoring situations, the prevailing approach to situation awareness (SA) assumes that the relevant areas of interest (AOI) be perceived before that information can be processed further to affect decision-making and, thereafter, action. It is not entirely clear whether this is the case. This study seeks to investigate the monitoring of dynamic objects through matching eye fixations with the relevant AOIs in boundary-crossing scenarios. By this definition, a match is where a fixation is registered on the AOI. While many factors may affect monitoring characteristics, traffic simulations were designed in this study to explore two factors, namely: the number of inbounds/outbound traffic transfers and the number of entry and/or exit points in a radar monitoring sector. These two factors were graded into five levels of difficulty ranging from low to high traffic flow numbers. Combined permutation in terms of levels of difficulty of these two factors yielded a total of thirty scenarios. Through this, results showed that changes in the traffic flow numbers on transfer resulted in greater variations having match limits ranging from 29%-100%, as compared to the number of sector entry/exit points of range limit from 80%-100%. The subsequent analysis is able to determine the type and combination of traffic scenarios where imperfect matching is likely to occur.

Keywords: air traffic simulation, eye-tracking, visual monitoring, focus attention

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Authors: Tharwat El-Sakran

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The linguistic choices accident news reporters make when reporting killing cases within family circles aid in augmenting the wrath readers feel towards the perpetrators. Undoubtedly, when killers or murderers are labelled with particular words, prospective readers will associate them with the cultural connotations and emotions, whether positive or negative, attached to those words. One of these strategies is the use of kinship terms to anaphorically or cataphorically refer to the defendants. While some articles opt for using the killer’s name, others make use of other kinship labels such as “the mother,” “the father,” “the step-father, and “the step-mother.” The preference for proper nouns over kinship terms and vice versa can be indicative of some of the underlying implications that the article writer may be trying to make about either the status of the killer or the overall incident circumstances. This research examines how the use of referential kinship labels could point to hidden and shared connotations between writers and their prospective readers. This study examined seventy newspaper articles from English-medium publications based in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the USA, and several other countries. Some of these articles make use of proper nouns referring to the individual directly by name, whereas others refer to individuals based on their kinship relation with the victim or by their occupational status. Furthermore, information was collected from two hundred fifty-one students at several UAE-based universities by asking them what certain kinship words meant to them. The survey questions allowed for real insight into some of the most prevalent interpretations attached to kinship labels and the possible implications for preferring kinship terms over occupational labels and persons’ proper names. Results indicate that newspaper writers employ kinship labels to inspire an emotion in their future readers’ reactions that may not be achieved through the use of the person’s proper name(s). Additionally, respondents to the survey believe that the use of kinship nouns like “mother,” “father,” “step-mother,” and “step-father” tends to inspire a stronger emotional response, as they are almost always associated with particular behavioral cultural codes and conventions. The study concludes with recommendations for teaching the grammar of English words to EFL and mass communication students and with suggestions for translation theorists and further research.

Keywords: kinship terms, accident reports, cultural connotations, translation of kinship terms

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Authors: Hsiao-Wen Tsai

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Motor vehicle accident is the first cause of head injury in the world; severe head injury cases may cause conscious disturbance and death. This is a report about a case of a young adult patient suffering from motor vehicle accident leading to severe head injury who passed through three time surgical procedures, and his mother (who is the informal caregiver). This case was followed from 28th January to 15th February 2011 by using Gordon’s 11 functional health patterns. Patient’s cognitive-perceptual and self-perception-self-concept patterns were altered. Anxiety was also noted on his informal caregiver due to patients’ condition. During the intensive care period, maintaining patient’s vital signs and cerebral perfusion pressure were essential to avoid secondary neuronal injury. Multi-sensory stimulation, caring accompanying, supporting, listening and encouraging patient’s family involved in patient care were very important to reduce informal caregiver anxiety. Finally, the patient consciousness improved from GCS 4 to GCS 11 before discharging from ICU. Patient’s primary informal caregiver, his mother, also showed anxiety improvement. This is was successful case with traumatic brain injury recovered from coma.

Keywords: anxiety, multi-sensory stimulation, reduce intracranial adaptive capacity, traumatic brain injury

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Authors: Hyeon-Kyo Lim, Tong-il Jang, Yong-Hee Lee

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As for any nuclear power plant, human error is one of the most dreaded factors that may result in unexpected accidents. Thus, for accident prevention, it is quite indispensable to analyze and to manage the influence of any factor which may raise the possibility of human errors. Among lots factors, stress has been reported to have significant influence on human performance. Stress level of a person may fluctuate over time. To handle the possibility over time, robust stress management program is required, especially in nuclear power plants. Therefore, to overcome the possibility of human errors, this study aimed to develop a stress management program as a part of Fitness-for-Duty (FFD) Program for the workers in nuclear power plants. The meaning of FFD might be somewhat different by research objectives, appropriate definition of FFD was accomplished in this study with special reference to human error prevention, and diverse stress factors were elicited for management of human error susceptibility. In addition, with consideration of conventional FFD management programs, appropriate tests and interventions were introduced over the whole employment cycle including selection and screening of workers, job allocation, job rotation, and disemployment as well as Employee-Assistance-Program (EAP). The results showed that most tools mainly concentrated their weights on common organizational factors such as Demands, Supports, and Relationships in sequence, which were referred as major stress factors.

Keywords: human error, accident prevention, work performance, stress, fatigue

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Authors: O. Fiquet, P. Lemarignier

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Additive manufacturing may find numerous applications in the nuclear industry, for the same reason as for other industries, to enlarge design possibilities and performances and develop fabrication methods as a flexible route for future innovation. Additive Manufacturing applications in the design of structural metallic components for reactors are already developed at a high Technology Readiness Level (TRL). In the case of a Pressured Water Reactor using uranium oxide fuel pellets, which are ceramics, the transposition of already optimized Additive Manufacturing (AM) processes to UO₂ remains a challenge, and the progress remains slow because, to our best knowledge, only a few laboratories have the capability of developing processes applicable to UO₂. After the Fukushima accident, numerous research fields emerged with the study of ATF (Accident tolerant Fuel) fuel concepts, which aimed to improve fuel behaviour. One item concerns the increase of the pellet thermal performance by, for example, the addition of high thermal conductivity material into fissile UO₂. This additive phase may be metallic, and the end product will constitute a CERMET composite. Innovative designs of an internal metallic framework are proposed based on predictive calculations. However, because the well-known reference pellet manufacturing methods impose many limitations, manufacturing such a composite remains an arduous task. Therefore, the AM process appears as a means of broadening the design possibilities of CERMET manufacturing. If the external form remains a standard cylindrical fuel pellet, the internal metallic design remains to be optimized based on process capabilities. This project also considers the limitation to a maximum of 10% volume of metal, which is a constraint neutron physics considerations impose. The AM technique chosen for this development is robocasting because of its simplicity and low-cost equipment. It remains, however, a challenge to adapt a ceramic 3D printing process for the fabrication of UO₂ fuel. The investigation starts with surrogate material, and the optimization of slurry feedstock is based on alumina. The paper will present the first printing of Al2O3-Mo CERMET and the expected transition from ceramic-based alumina to UO₂ CERMET.

Keywords: nuclear, fuel, CERMET, robocasting

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Authors: Satoshi Furukawa, Satomu Morita, Katsuji Nishi, Masahito Hitosugi

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We experience the autopsy cases that the deceased was alive in emergency room on arrival. Bleeding is the leading cause of preventable death after injury. This retrospective study aimed to characterize opportunities for performance improvement identified in patients who died from traffic trauma and were considered by the quality improvement of education system. The Japan Advanced Trauma Evaluation and Care (JATEC) education program was introduced in 2002. We focused the abdominal traffic trauma injury. An autopsy-based cross-sectional study conducted. A purposive sampling technique was applied to select the study sample of 41 post-mortems of road traffic accident between April 1999 and March 2014 subjected to medico-legal autopsy at the department of Forensic Medicine, Shiga University of Medical Science. 16 patients (39.0%) were abdominal trauma injury. The mean period of survival after meet with accident was 13.5 hours, compared abdominal trauma death was 27.4 hours longer. In road traffic accidents, the most injured abdominal organs were liver followed by mesentery. We thought delayed treatment was associated with immediate diagnostic imaging, and so expected to expand trauma management examination.

Keywords: abdominal traffic trauma, preventable death, autopsy, emergency medicine

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Authors: Afif Saleh Abugharsa

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The IEEE 802.15.4 standard is designed for low-rate wireless personal area networks (LR-WPAN) with focus on enabling wireless sensor networks. It aims to give a low data rate, low power consumption, and low cost wireless networking on the device-level communication. The objective of this study is to investigate the performance of IEEE 802.15.4 based networks using simulation tool. In this project the network simulator 2 NS2 was used to several performance measures of wireless sensor networks. Three scenarios were considered, multi hop network with a single coordinator, star topology, and an ad hoc on demand distance vector AODV. Results such as packet delivery ratio, hop delay, and number of collisions are obtained from these scenarios.

Keywords: ZigBee, wireless sensor networks, IEEE 802.15.4, low power, low data rate

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Authors: Sanjeev Kumar Appicharla

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This paper presents the results of the modelling and analysis of the European Railway Traffic Management (ERTMS) safety-critical incident to raise awareness of biases in the systems engineering process on the Cambrian Railway in the UK using the RAIB 17/2019 as a primary input. The RAIB, the UK independent accident investigator, published the Report- RAIB 17/2019 giving the details of their investigation of the focal event in the form of immediate cause, causal factors, and underlying factors and recommendations to prevent a repeat of the safety-critical incident on the Cambrian Line. The Systems for Investigation of Railway Interfaces (SIRI) is the methodology used to model and analyze the safety-critical incident. The SIRI methodology uses the Swiss Cheese Model to model the incident and identify latent failure conditions (potentially less than adequate conditions) by means of the management oversight and risk tree technique. The benefits of the systems for investigation of railway interfaces methodology (SIRI) are threefold: first is that it incorporates the “Heuristics and Biases” approach advanced by 2002 Nobel laureate in Economic Sciences, Prof Daniel Kahneman, in the management oversight and risk tree technique to identify systematic errors. Civil engineering and programme management railway professionals are aware of the role “optimism bias” plays in programme cost overruns and are aware of bow tie (fault and event tree) model-based safety risk modelling techniques. However, the role of systematic errors due to “Heuristics and Biases” is not appreciated as yet. This overcomes the problems of omission of human and organizational factors from accident analysis. Second, the scope of the investigation includes all levels of the socio-technical system, including government, regulatory, railway safety bodies, duty holders, signaling firms and transport planners, and front-line staff such that lessons are learned at the decision making and implementation level as well. Third, the author’s past accident case studies are supplemented with research pieces of evidence drawn from the practitioner's and academic researchers’ publications as well. This is to discuss the role of system thinking to improve the decision-making and risk management processes and practices in the IEC 15288 systems engineering standard and in the industrial context such as the GB railways and artificial intelligence (AI) contexts as well.

Keywords: accident analysis, AI algorithm internal audit, bounded rationality, Byzantine failures, heuristics and biases approach

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Authors: Kimuli Ismail, Michael Lubwama, John Baptist Kirabira, Adam Sebbit

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This study develops 4 energy scenarios for Greater Kampala Metropolitan Area (GKMA). GKMA is Uganda’s capital with a population of 4.1million and a GDP growth rate of 5.8 with a nonsustainable energy management system. The study uses TIMES-VEDA to examine the energy impacts of business as usual (BAU), Kabejja, Carbon-Tax, and Lutta scenarios in commercial, industrial, transportation, residential, agricultural, and electricity generation activities. BAU is the baseline scenario with limited CO2 emissions restrictions against which Kabejja with 20% CO2 emissions restriction, a carbon tax of $100/ton imposed in 2050 for Carbon-Tax scenario, and Lutta with 95% CO2 emissions restriction is made. The analysis suggests that if the current policy trends continue as BAU, consumption would increase from 139.6PJ to 497.42PJ and CO2 emissions will increase from 4.6mtns to 7mtns. However, consumption would decrease by 2.3% in Kabejja, 3.4% in Carbon-Tax, and 3.3 % in Lutta compared to BAU. The CO2 emissions would decrease by 8.57% in Kabejja, 55.14% in Carbon-Tax, and 60% in Lutta compared to BAU. Sustainability is achievable when low-carbon electricity is increased by 53.68% in the EMS, and setting up an electrified Kampala metro. The study recommends Lutta as the sustainable pathway to a lowcarbon 2050.

Keywords: Sustainability, Scenario Plannnig, Times-Veda Modelling, Energy Policy Development

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Authors: Chun-Liang Wu, Kai-Ping Shaw, Cheng-Ping Yu, Wu-Chien Chien, Hsiao-Ting Chen, Shao-Huang Wu

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Objective: This study analyzed three criminal judicial cases. We applied the patterned injuries of the rider to demonstrate the facts of each accident, reconstruct the scenes, and pursue the truth. Methods: Case analysis, a method that collects evidence and reasons the results in judicial procedures, then the importance of the pattern of injury as evidence will be compared and evaluated. The patterned injuries analysis method is to compare the collision situation between an object and human body injuries to determine whether the characteristics can reproduce the unique pattern of injury. Result: Case 1: Two motorcycles, A and B, head-on collided; rider A dead, and rider B was accused. During the prosecutor’s investigation, the defendant learned that rider A had an 80 mm open wound on his neck. During the court trial, the defendant requested copies of the case file and found out that rider A had a large contusion on his chest wall, and the cause of death was traumatic hemothorax and abdominal wall contusion. The defendant compared all the evidence at the scene and determined that the injury was obviously not caused by the collision of the body or the motorcycle of rider B but that rider was out of control and injured himself when he crossed the double yellow line. In this case, the defendant was innocent in the High Court judgment in April 2022. Case 2: Motorcycles C and D head-on crashed, and rider C died of massive abdominal bleeding. The prosecutor decided that rider C was driving under the influence (DUI), but rider D was negligent and sued rider D. The defendant requested the copies’ file and found the special phenomenon that the front wheel of motorcycle C was turned left. The defendant’s injuries were a left facial bone fracture, a left femur fracture, and other injuries on the left side. The injuries were of human-vehicle separation and human-vehicle collision, which proved that rider C suddenly turned left when the two motorcycles approached, knocked down motorcycle D, and the defendant flew forward. Case 3: Motorcycle E and F’s rear end collided, the front rider E was sentenced to 3 months, and the rear rider F sued rider E for more than 7 million N.T. The defendant found in the copies’ file that the injury of rider F was the left tibial platform fracture, etc., and then proved that rider F made the collision with his left knee, causing motorcycle E to fall out of control. This evidence was accepted by the court and is still on trial. Conclusion: The application of patterned injuries in the reconstruction of a motorcycle accident could discover the truth and provide the basis for judicial justice. The cases and methods could be the reference for the policy of preventing traffic accident casualties.

Keywords: judicial evidence, patterned injuries analysis, accident reconstruction, fatal motorcycle injuries

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Authors: A. T. Kassem

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Fires areconsidered a common hazardous action that any building may face. Most buildings’ structural elements are designed, taking into consideration precautions for fire safety, using deterministic design approaches. Public and highly important buildings are commonly designed considering standard fire rating and, in many cases, contain large compartments with central domes. Real fire scenarios are not commonly brought into action in structural design of buildings because of complexities in both scenarios and analysis tools. This paper presents a modern approach towards analysis of spherical domes in real fire condition via implementation of building information modelling, and adopting a probabilistic approach. BIMhas been implemented to bridge the gap between various software packages enabling them to function interactively to model both real fire and corresponding structural response. Ventilation controlled fires scenarios have been modeled using both “Revit” and “Pyrosim”. Monte Carlo simulation has been adopted to engage the probabilistic analysis approach in dealing with various parameters. Conclusions regarding failure probability and fire endurance, in addition to the effects of various parameters, have been extracted.

Keywords: concrete, spherical domes, ventilation controlled fires, BIM, monte carlo simulation, pyrosim, revit

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Authors: Nacer Eddine Chelbi, Ayet Bagane, Annie Saleh, Claude Sauvageau, Denis Gingras

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As recently stated by National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), to demonstrate the expected performance of a highly automated vehicles system, test approaches should include a combination of simulation, test track, and on-road testing. In this paper, we propose a new validation method for autonomous vehicles involving on-road tests (Field Operational Tests), test track (Test Matrix) and simulation (Worst Case Scenarios). We concentrate our discussion on the simulation aspects, in particular, we extend recent work based on Importance Sampling by using a Metropolis-Hasting algorithm (MHS) to sample collected data from the Safety Pilot Model Deployment (SPMD) in lane-change scenarios. Our proposed MH sampling method will be compared to the Importance Sampling method, which does not perform well in high-dimensional problems. The importance of this study is to obtain a sampler that could be applied to high dimensional simulation problems in order to reduce and optimize the number of test scenarios that are necessary for validation and certification of autonomous vehicles.

Keywords: automated driving, autonomous emergency braking (AEB), autonomous vehicles, certification, evaluation, importance sampling, metropolis-hastings sampling, tests

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Authors: Liu De-jun, Fu Jing, Zhang Rong, Luo Tian, Ma Ning

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Cs-137, the radioactive fission products of uranium, can be easily dissolved in water during the accident of nuclear power plant, such as Chernobyl, Three Mile Island, Fukushima accidents. The concentration of Cs in the groundwater around the nuclear power plant exceeded the standard value almost 10,000 times after the Fukushima accident. The adsorption capacity of Titanate nano-materials for radioactive cation (Cs+) is very strong. Moreover, the radioactive ion can be tightly contained in the nanotubes or nanofibers without reversible adsorption, and it can safely be fixed. In addition, the nano-material has good chemical stability, thermal stability and mechanical stability to minimize the environmental impact of nuclear waste and waste volume. The preparation of titanate nanotubes or nanofibers was studied by hydrothermal methods, and chemical kinetics of removal of Cs by nano-materials was obtained. The adsorption time with maximum adsorption capacity and the effects of pH, coexisting ion concentration and the optimum adsorption conditions on the removal of Cs by titanate nano-materials were also obtained. The adsorption boundary curves, adsorption isotherm and the maximum adsorption capacity of Cs-137 as tracer on the nano-materials were studied in the research. The experimental results showed that the removal rate of Cs-137 in 0.01 tons of waste water with only 1 gram nano-materials could reach above 98%, according to the optimum adsorption conditions.

Keywords: preparation, titanate, cs-137, removal, nuclear

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Authors: Hernández Marieta, Aguayo Mauricio, Pedreros María, Llompart Ovidio

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The hydrological cycle is influenced by multiple factors, including climate change, land use changes, and anthropogenic activities, all of which threaten water availability and quality worldwide. In recent decades, numerous investigations have used landscape metrics and hydrological modeling to demonstrate the influence of landscape patterns on the hydrological cycle components' natural dynamics. Many of these investigations have determined the repercussions on the quality and availability of water, sedimentation, and erosion regime, mainly in Asian basins. In fact, there is progress in this branch of science, but there are still unanswered questions for our region. This study examines the hydrological response in Chilean basins under various land use change scenarios (LUCC) and the influence of climate change. The components of the water cycle were modeled using a physically distributed type hydrological and hydraulic simulation model based on and oriented to mountain basins TETIS model. Future climate data were derived from Chilean regional simulations using the WRF-MIROC5 model, forced with the RCP 8.5 scenario, at a 25 km resolution for the periods 2030-2060 and 2061-2091. LUCC scenarios were designed based on nature-based solutions, landscape pattern influences, current national and international water conservation legislation, and extreme scenarios of non-preservation and conservation of native forests. The scenarios that demonstrate greater water availability, even under climate change, are those promoting the restoration of native forests in over 30% of the basins, even alongside agricultural activities. Current legislation promoting the restoration of native forests only in riparian zones (30-60 m or 200 m in steeper areas) will not be resilient enough to address future water shortages. Evapotranspiration, direct runoff, and water availability at basin outlets showed the greatest variations due to LUCC. The relationship between hydrological modeling and landscape configuration is an effective tool for establishing future territorial planning that prioritizes water resource protection.

Keywords: TETIS, landscape pattern, hydrological process, water availability, Chilean basins

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Authors: Junwon Seo, Bipin Adhikari, Euiseok Jeong

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This paper is intended to evaluate the structural performance of welded electronic road signs under various damage scenarios (DSs) using a finite element (FE) model calibrated with full-scale ultimate load testing results. The tested electronic road sign specimen was built with a back skin made of 5052 aluminum and two channels and a frame made of 6061 aluminum, where the back skin was connected to the frame by welding. The size of the tested specimen was 1.52 m long, 1.43 m wide, and 0.28 m deep. An actuator applied vertical loads at the center of the back skin of the specimen, resulting in a displacement of 158.7 mm and an ultimate load of 153.46 kN. Using these testing data, generation and calibration of a FE model of the tested specimen were executed in ABAQUS, indicating that the difference in the ultimate load between the calibrated model simulation and full-scale testing was only 3.32%. Then, six different DSs were simulated where the areas of the welded connection in the calibrated model were diminished for the DSs. It was found that the corners at the back skin-frame joint were prone to connection failure for all the DSs, and failure of the back skin-frame connection occurred remarkably from the distant edges.

Keywords: computational analysis, damage scenarios, electronic road signs, finite element, welded connections

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Authors: Moon Byung Woo, Seok Chang-Sung, Koo Jae-Mean, Kim Sang-Young, Choi Jae Gu, Huh Nam-Su

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Recently, the occurrence of the earthquake has increased sharply and many of the casualties have occurred worldwide, due to the influence of earthquakes. Especially, the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident which was caused by the earthquake in 2011 has significantly increased the fear of people and the demand for the safety of the nuclear power plant. Thus, in order to prevent the earthquake accident at nuclear power plant, it is important to evaluate the fracture toughness considering the seismic loading rate. To obtain fracture toughness for the safety evaluation of nuclear power plant, it is desirable to perform experiments with a real scale pipe which is expensive and hard to perform. Therefore, many researchers have proposed various test specimens to replicate the fracture toughness of a real scale pipe. Since such specimens have several problems, the equivalent stress gradient (ESG) specimen has been recently suggested. In this study, in order to consider the effects of the dynamic loading speed on fracture toughness, the experiment was conducted by applying five different kinds of test speeds using an ESG specimen. In addition, after we performed the fracture toughness test under dynamic loading with different speeds using an ESG specimen and a standard specimen, we compared them with the test results under static loading.

Keywords: dynamic loading speed, fracture toughness, load-ratio-method, equivalent stress gradient (ESG) specimen

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Authors: Mohammad Abotalib, Hamid Alhamadi

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In Kuwait, electricity is generated from two primary sources that are heavy fuel combustion and natural gas combustion. As Kuwait relies mainly on petroleum-based products for electricity generation, identifying and understanding the environmental trade-off of such operations should be carefully investigated. The life cycle assessment (LCA) tool is applied to identify the potential environmental impact of electricity generation under three scenarios by considering the material flow in various stages involved, such as raw-material extraction, transportation, operations, and waste disposal. The three scenarios investigated represent current and futuristic electricity grid mixes. The analysis targets six environmental impact categories: (1) global warming potential (GWP), (2) acidification potential (AP), (3) water depletion (WD), (4) acidification potential (AP), (4) eutrophication potential (EP), (5) human health particulate matter (HHPM), and (6) smog air (SA) per one kWh of electricity generated. Results indicate that one kWh of electricity generated would have a GWP (881-1030) g CO₂-eq, mainly from the fuel combustion process, water depletion (0.07-0.1) m³ of water, about 68% from cooling processes, AP (15.3-17.9) g SO₂-eq, EP (0.12-0.14) g N eq., HHPA (1.13- 1.33)g PM₂.₅ eq., and SA (64.8-75.8) g O₃ eq. The variation in results depend on the scenario investigated. It can be observed from the analysis that introducing solar photovoltaic and wind to the electricity grid mix improves the performance of scenarios 2 and 3 where 15% of the electricity comes from renewables correspond to a further decrease in LCA results.

Keywords: energy, functional uni, global warming potential, life cycle assessment, energy, functional unit

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Authors: Ghulam Haider Haidaree, Nsenda Lukumwena

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Today the world of research enjoys abundant data, available in virtually any field, technology, science, and business, politics, etc. This is commonly referred to as big data. This offers a great deal of precision and accuracy, supportive of an in-depth look at any decision-making process. When and if well used, Big Data affords its users with the opportunity to produce substantially well supported and good results. This paper leans extensively on big data to investigate possible smart solutions to urban mobility and related issues, namely road traffic accidents, its casualties, and fatalities based on multiple factors, including age, gender, location occurrences of accidents, etc. Multiple technologies were used in combination to produce an Information Communication Technology (ICT) based solution with embedded technology. Those technologies include principally Geographic Information System (GIS), Orange Data Mining Software, Bayesian Statistics, to name a few. The study uses the Leeds accident 2016 to illustrate the thinking process and extracts thereof a model that can be tested, evaluated, and replicated. The authors optimistically believe that the proposed model will significantly and smartly help to flatten the curve of road traffic accidents in the fast-growing population densities, which increases considerably motor-based mobility.

Keywords: accident factors, geographic information system, information communication technology, mobility

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Authors: M. Mokhber, J. Hedayati

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From the managerial perspective, it is important to devise an operational plan based on top priorities due to limited resources, diversity of measures and high costs needed to improve safety in infrastructure. Dealing with the high-risk corridors across Iran, this study prioritized the corridors according to statistical data on accidents involving fatalities, injury or damage over three consecutive years. In collaboration with the Iranian Police Department, data were collected and modified. Then, the prioritization criteria were specified based on the expertise opinions and international standards. In this study, the prioritization criteria included accident severity and accident density. Finally, the criteria were standardized and weighted (equal weights) to score each high-risk corridor. The prioritization phase involved the scoring and weighting procedure. The high-risk corridors were divided into twelve groups out of 50. The results of data analysis for a three-year span suggested that the first three groups (150 corridors) along with a quarter of Iranian road network length account for nearly 60% of traffic accidents. In the next step, according to variables including weather conditions particular roads for the purpose of winter safety measures were extracted from the abovementioned categories. According to the results ranking, ‎‏9‏‎ roads with the overall ‎length of about ‎‎‏1000‏‎ Km of high-risk corridors are considered as preferences of ‎safety measures‎.

Keywords: high-risk corridors, HRCs, road safety rating, road scoring, winter safety measures

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Authors: Nafisa Mahbub, Hajo Ribberink

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Electrification of long-haul trucks has been in discussion as a potential strategy to decarbonization. These trucks will require large batteries because of their weight and long daily driving distances. Around 245 million battery electric vehicles are predicted to be on the road by the year 2035. This huge increase in the number of electric vehicles (EVs) will require intensive mining operations for metals and other materials to manufacture millions of batteries for the EVs. These operations will add significant environmental burdens and there is a significant risk that the mining sector will not be able to meet the demand for battery materials, leading to higher prices. Since the battery is the most expensive component in the EVs, technologies that can enable electrification with smaller batteries sizes have substantial potential to reduce the material usage and associated environmental and cost burdens. One of these technologies is an ‘electrified road’ (eroad), where vehicles receive power while they are driving, for instance through an overhead catenary (OC) wire (like trolleybuses and electric trains), through wireless (inductive) chargers embedded in the road, or by connecting to an electrified rail in or on the road surface. This study assessed the total material use and associated life cycle GHG emissions of two types of eroads (overhead catenary and in-road wireless charging) for long-haul trucks in Canada and compared them to electrification using stationary plug-in fast charging. As different electrification technologies require different amounts of materials for charging infrastructure and for the truck batteries, the study included the contributions of both for the total material use. The study developed a bottom-up approach model comparing the three different charging scenarios – plug in fast chargers, overhead catenary and in-road wireless charging. The investigated materials for charging technology and batteries were copper (Cu), steel (Fe), aluminium (Al), and lithium (Li). For the plug-in fast charging technology, different charging scenarios ranging from overnight charging (350 kW) to megawatt (MW) charging (2 MW) were investigated. A 500 km of highway (1 lane of in-road charging per direction) was considered to estimate the material use for the overhead catenary and inductive charging technologies. The study considered trucks needing an 800 kWh battery under the plug-in charger scenario but only a 200 kWh battery for the OC and inductive charging scenarios. Results showed that overall the inductive charging scenario has the lowest material use followed by OC and plug-in charger scenarios respectively. The materials use for the OC and plug-in charger scenarios were 50-70% higher than for the inductive charging scenarios for the overall system including the charging infrastructure and battery. The life cycle GHG emissions from the construction and installation of the charging technology material were also investigated.

Keywords: charging technology, eroad, GHG emissions, material use, overhead catenary, plug in charger

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Authors: Krzysztof J. Czarnocki, F. Silveira, E. Czarnocka, K. Szaniawska

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Research background: Problems related to the occupational health and decreasing level of safety occur commonly in the construction industry. Important factor in the occupational safety in construction industry is scaffold use. All scaffolds used in construction, renovation, and demolition shall be erected, dismantled and maintained in accordance with safety procedure. Increasing demand for new construction projects unfortunately still is linked to high level of occupational accidents. Therefore, it is crucial to implement concrete actions while dealing with scaffolds and risk assessment in construction industry, the way on doing assessment and liability of assessment is critical for both construction workers and regulatory framework. Unfortunately, professionals, who tend to rely heavily on their own experience and knowledge when taking decisions regarding risk assessment, may show lack of reliability in checking the results of decisions taken. Purpose of the article: The aim was to indicate crucial parameters that could be modeling with Risk Assessment Model (RAM) use for improving both building enterprise productivity and/or developing potential and safety climate. The developed RAM could be a benefit for predicting high-risk construction activities and thus preventing accidents occurred based on a set of historical accident data. Methodology/Methods: A RAM has been developed for assessing risk levels as various construction process stages with various work trades impacting different spheres of enterprise activity. This project includes research carried out by teams of researchers on over 60 construction sites in Poland and Portugal, under which over 450 individual research cycles were carried out. The conducted research trials included variable conditions of employee exposure to harmful physical and chemical factors, variable levels of stress of employees and differences in behaviors and habits of staff. Genetic modeling tool has been used for developing the RAM. Findings and value added: Common types of trades, accidents, and accident causes have been explored, in addition to suitable risk assessment methods and criteria. We have found that the initial worker stress level is more direct predictor for developing the unsafe chain leading to the accident rather than the workload, or concentration of harmful factors at the workplace or even training frequency and management involvement.

Keywords: safety climate, occupational health, civil engineering, productivity

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Authors: Leila Rashidian, Mina Rajabali

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Industrialization has made progress and comfort for human beings in many aspects. It is not only achievement for the global environment but also factor for destruction and disruption of the Earth's climate. In this study, we used LARS.WG model and down scaling of general circulation climate model HADCM-3 daily precipitation amounts, minimum and maximum temperature and daily sunshine hours. These data are provided by the meteorological organization for Caspian Sea coastal station such as Anzali, Manjil, Rasht, Lahijan and Astara since their establishment is from 1982 until 2010. According to the IPCC scenarios, including series A1b, A2, B1, we tried to simulate data from 2010 to 2040. The rainfall pattern has changed. So we have a rainfall distribution inappropriate in different months.

Keywords: climate change, Lars.WG, HADCM3, Gillan province, climatic parameters, A2 scenario

Procedia PDF Downloads 261