Search results for: Taylor Monaghan

Authors: Ramin Hosseinnezhad, Iurii Vozniak, Andrzej Galeski

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Shear-induced crystallization, originated from orientation of chains along the flow direction, is an inevitable part of most polymer processing technologies. It plays a dominant role in determining the final product properties and is affected by many factors such as shear rate, cooling rate, total strain, etc. Investigation of the shear-induced crystallization process become of great importance for preparation of nanocomposite, which requires crystallization of nanofibrous sheared inclusions at higher temperatures. Thus, the effects of shear time, shear rate, and also thermal condition of cooling on crystallization of two aliphatic-aromatic copolyesters have been investigated. This was performed using Linkam optical shearing system (CSS450) for both Ecoflex® F Blend C1200 produced by BASF and synthesized copolyester of butylene terephthalate and a mixture of butylene esters: adipate, succinate, and glutarate, (PBASGT), containing 60% of aromatic comonomer. Crystallization kinetics of these biodegradable copolyesters was studied at two different conditions of shearing. First, sample with a thickness of 60µm was heated to 60˚C above its melting point and subsequently subjected to different shear rates (100–800 sec-1) while cooling with specific rates. Second, the same type of sample was cooled down when shearing at constant temperature was finished. The intensity of transmitted depolarized light, recorded by a camera attached to the optical microscope, was used as a measure to follow the crystallization. Temperature dependencies of conversion degree of samples during cooling were collected and used to determine the half-temperature (Th), at which 50% conversion degree was reached. Shearing ecoflex films for 45 seconds with a shear rate of 100 sec-1 resulted in significant increase of Th from 56˚C to 70˚C. Moreover, the temperature range for the transition of molten samples to crystallized state decreased from 42˚C to 20˚C. Comparatively low shift of 10˚C in Th towards higher temperature was observed for PBASGT films at shear rate of 600 sec-1 for 45 seconds. However, insufficient melt flow strength and non-laminar flow due to Taylor vortices was a hindrance to reach more elevated Th at very high shear rates (600–800 sec-1). The shift in Th was smaller for the samples sheared at a constant temperature and subsequently cooled down. This may be attributed to the longer time gap between cessation of shearing and the onset of crystallization. The longer this time gap, the more possibility for crystal nucleus to re-melt at temperatures above Tm and for polymer chains to recoil and relax. It is found that the crystallization temperature, crystallization induction time and spherulite growth of aliphatic-aromatic copolyesters are dramatically influenced by both the cooling rate and the shear imposed during the process.

Keywords: induced crystallization, shear rate, aliphatic-aromatic copolyester, ecoflex

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Authors: Arif Tri Setyanto, Aditya Nanda Priyatama, Nugraha Arif Karyanta, Fadjri Kirana A., Afia Fitriani, Rini Setyowati, Moh.Abdul Hakim

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The Basic Health Research Report by the Ministry of Health (2018) shows an increase in the prevalence of mental health disorders in the adolescent and early adult age ranges. Supporting this finding, data on the psychological examination of the student health service unit at one State University recorded 115 cases of moderate and severe health problems in the period 2016 - 2019. More specifically, the highest number of cases was experienced by clients in the age range of 21-23 years or equivalent, with the mid-semester stage towards the end. Based on the distribution of cases experienced and the disorder becomes a psychological problem experienced by students. A total of 29% or the equivalent of 33 students experienced anxiety disorders, 25% or 29 students experienced problems ranging from mild to severe, as well as other classifications of disorders experienced, including adjustment disorders, family problems, academics, mood disorders, self-concept disorders, personality disorders, cognitive disorders, and others such as trauma and sexual disorders. Various mental health disorders have a significant impact on the academic life of students, such as low GPA, exceeding the limit in college, dropping out, disruption of social life on campus, to suicide. Based on literature reviews and best practices from universities in various countries, one of the effective ways to prevent and treat student mental health disorders is to implement a mental health monitoring system in universities. This study uses a participatory action research approach, with a sample of 423 from a total population of 32,112 students. The scale used in this study is the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) to measure depression and the Taylor Minnesota Anxiety Scale (TMAS) to measure anxiety levels. This study aims to (1) develop a digital-based health monitoring system for students' mental health situations in the mental health category. , dangers, or those who have mental disorders, especially indications of symptoms of depression and anxiety disorders, and (2) implementing a mental health monitoring system in universities at the beginning and end of each semester. The results of the analysis show that from 423 respondents, the main problems faced by all coursework, such as thesis and academic assignments. Based on the scoring and categorization of the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI), 191 students experienced symptoms of depression. A total of 24.35%, or 103 students experienced mild depression, 14.42% (61 students) had moderate depression, and 6.38% (27 students) experienced severe or extreme depression. Furthermore, as many as 80.38% (340 students) experienced anxiety in the high category. This article will review this review of the student mental health service system on campus.

Keywords: monitoring system, mental health, psychological problems, students

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Authors: Rui Brito

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This contribution regards a literature review of inventory management that is a relevant topic for the firms, due to its important use of capital with implications in firm’s profitability within the complexity of a more competitive and globalized world. Firms look for small inventories in order to reduce holding costs, namely opportunity cost, warehousing and handling costs, deterioration and being out of style, but larger inventories are required by some reasons, such as customer service, ordering cost, transportation cost, supplier’s payment to reduce unit costs or to take advantage of price increase in the near future, and equipment setup cost. Thus, management shall address a trade-off between small inventories and larger inventories. This literature review concerns three types of inventory (spare parts, safety stock, and vendor) whose management usually is beyond the scope of logistics. The applied methodology consisted of an online search of databases regarding scientific documents in English, namely Elsevier, Springer, Emerald, Wiley, and Taylor & Francis, but excluding books except if edited, using search engines, such as Google Scholar and B-on. The search was based on three keywords/strings (themes) which had to be included just as in the article title, suggesting themes were very relevant to the researchers. The whole search period was between 2009 and 2018 with the aim of collecting between twenty and forty studies considered relevant within each of the key words/strings specified. Documents were sorted by relevance and to prevent the exclusion of the more recent articles, based on lower quantity of citations partially due to less time to be cited in new research articles, the search period was divided into two sub-periods (2009-2015 and 2016-2018). The number of surveyed articles by theme showed a variation from 40 to 200 and the number of citations of those articles showed a wider variation from 3 to 216. Selected articles from the three themes were analyzed and the first seven of the first sub-period and the first three of the second sub-period with more citations were read in full to make a synopsis of each article. Overall, the findings show that the majority of article types were models, namely mathematical, although with different sub-types for each theme. Almost all articles suggest further studies, with some mentioning it for their own author(s), which widen the diversity of the previous research. Identified research gaps concern the use of surveys to know which are the models more used by firms, the reasons for not using the models with more performance and accuracy, and which are the satisfaction levels with the outcomes of the inventories management and its effect on the improvement of the firm’s overall performance. The review ends with the limitations and contributions of the study.

Keywords: inventory management, safety stock, spare parts inventory, vendor managed inventory

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Authors: M. Qamarul Islam, Ergun Dogan, Mehmet Yazici

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There is a growing body of evidence that non-normal data is more prevalent in nature than the normal one. Examples can be quoted from, but not restricted to, the areas of Economics, Finance and Actuarial Science. The non-normality considered here is expressed in terms of fat-tailedness and asymmetry of the relevant distribution. In this study a skew t distribution that can be used to model a data that exhibit inherent non-normal behavior is considered. This distribution has tails fatter than a normal distribution and it also exhibits skewness. Although maximum likelihood estimates can be obtained by solving iteratively the likelihood equations that are non-linear in form, this can be problematic in terms of convergence and in many other respects as well. Therefore, it is preferred to use the method of modified maximum likelihood in which the likelihood estimates are derived by expressing the intractable non-linear likelihood equations in terms of standardized ordered variates and replacing the intractable terms by their linear approximations obtained from the first two terms of a Taylor series expansion about the quantiles of the distribution. These estimates, called modified maximum likelihood estimates, are obtained in closed form. Hence, they are easy to compute and to manipulate analytically. In fact the modified maximum likelihood estimates are equivalent to maximum likelihood estimates, asymptotically. Even in small samples the modified maximum likelihood estimates are found to be approximately the same as maximum likelihood estimates that are obtained iteratively. It is shown in this study that the modified maximum likelihood estimates are not only unbiased but substantially more efficient than the commonly used moment estimates or the least square estimates that are known to be biased and inefficient in such cases. Furthermore, in conventional regression analysis, it is assumed that the error terms are distributed normally and, hence, the well-known least square method is considered to be a suitable and preferred method for making the relevant statistical inferences. However, a number of empirical researches have shown that non-normal errors are more prevalent. Even transforming and/or filtering techniques may not produce normally distributed residuals. Here, a study is done for multiple linear regression models with random error having non-normal pattern. Through an extensive simulation it is shown that the modified maximum likelihood estimates of regression parameters are plausibly robust to the distributional assumptions and to various data anomalies as compared to the widely used least square estimates. Relevant tests of hypothesis are developed and are explored for desirable properties in terms of their size and power. The tests based upon modified maximum likelihood estimates are found to be substantially more powerful than the tests based upon least square estimates. Several examples are provided from the areas of Economics and Finance where such distributions are interpretable in terms of efficient market hypothesis with respect to asset pricing, portfolio selection, risk measurement and capital allocation, etc.

Keywords: least square estimates, linear regression, maximum likelihood estimates, modified maximum likelihood method, non-normality, robustness

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Authors: R. M. Kilonzo, S. Bedingfield, K. Smith, K. Hudgins Smith, K. Couper, R. Ratley, Z. Taylor, A. Engelman, M. Renne

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Introduction: The mental health needs of university students continue to evolve, necessitating a strategic approach to service delivery. The East Tennessee State University (ETSU) Counseling Center developed its inaugural Strategic Plan (2024-2028) to enhance student mental health services. The plan focuses on improving access, quality of care, and service visibility, aligning with the university’s mission to support academic success and student well-being. Aim: This strategic plan aims to establish a comprehensive framework for delivering high-quality, evidence-based mental health services to ETSU students, addressing current challenges, and anticipating future needs. Methods: The development of the strategic plan was a collaborative effort involving the Counseling Center’s leadership, staff, with technical support from Doctor of Public Health-community and behavioral health intern. Multiple workshops, online/offline reviews, and stakeholder consultations were held to ensure a robust and inclusive process. A SWOT analysis and stakeholder mapping were conducted to identify strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and challenges. Key performance indicators (KPIs) were set to measure service utilization, satisfaction, and outcomes. Results: The plan resulted in four strategic priorities: service application, visibility/accessibility, safety and satisfaction, and training programs. Key objectives include expanding counseling services, improving service access through outreach, reducing stigma, and increasing peer support programs. The plan also focuses on continuous quality improvement through data-driven assessments and research initiatives. Immediate outcomes include expanded group therapy, enhanced staff training, and increased mental health literacy across campus. Conclusion and Recommendation: The strategic plan provides a roadmap for addressing the mental health needs of ETSU students, with a clear focus on accessibility, inclusivity, and evidence-based practices. Implementing the plan will strengthen the Counseling Center’s capacity to meet the diverse needs of the student population. To ensure sustainability, it is recommended that the center continuously assess student needs, foster partnerships with university and external stakeholders, and advocate for increased funding to expand services and staff capacity.

Keywords: strategic plan, university counseling center, mental health, students

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Authors: Kumlachew Zelalem Walle, Chun-Chen Yang

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Solid-state lithium metal batteries (SSLMBs) are considered promising candidates for next-generation energy storage devices due to their superior energy density and excellent safety. However, recent findings have shown that the formation of lithium (Li) dendrites in SSLMBs still exhibits a terrible growth ability, which makes the development of SSLMBs have to face the challenges posed by the Li dendrite problem. In this work, an inorganic/organic mixture coating material (g-C3N4/ZIF-8/PVDF) was used to modify the surface of lithium metal anode (LMA). Then the modified LMA (denoted as g-C₃N₄@Li) was assembled with lithium nafion (LiNf) coated commercial NCM811 (LiNf@NCM811) using a bilayer hybrid solid electrolyte (Bi-HSE) that incorporated 20 wt.% (vs. polymer) LiNf coated Li6.05Ga0.25La3Zr2O11.8F0.2 ([email protected]) filler faced to the positive electrode and the other layer with 80 wt.% (vs. polymer) filler content faced to the g-C₃N₄@Li. The garnet-type Li6.05Ga0.25La3Zr2O11.8F0.2 (LG0.25LZOF) solid electrolyte was prepared via co-precipitation reaction process from Taylor flow reactor and modified using lithium nafion (LiNf), a Li-ion conducting polymer. The Bi-HSE exhibited high ionic conductivity of 6.8  10–4 S cm–1 at room temperature, and a wide electrochemical window (0–5.0 V vs. Li/Li+). The coin cell was charged between 2.8 to 4.5 V at 0.2C and delivered an initial specific discharge capacity of 194.3 mAh g–1 and after 100 cycles it maintained 81.8% of its initial capacity at room temperature. The presence of a nano-sheet g-C3N4/ZIF-8/PVDF as a composite coating material on the LMA surface suppress the dendrite growth and enhance the compatibility as well as the interfacial contact between anode/electrolyte membrane. The g-C3N4@Li symmetrical cells incorporating this hybrid electrolyte possessed excellent interfacial stability over 1000 h at 0.1 mA cm–2 and a high critical current density (1 mA cm–2). Moreover, the in-situ formation of Li3N on the solid electrolyte interface (SEI) layer as depicted from the XPS result also improves the ionic conductivity and interface contact during the charge/discharge process. Therefore, these novel multi-layered fabrication strategies of hybrid/composite solid electrolyte membranes and modification of the LMA surface using mixed coating materials have potential applications in the preparation of highly safe high-voltage cathodes for SSLMBs.

Keywords: high-voltage cathodes, hybrid solid electrolytes, garnet, graphitic-carbon nitride (g-C3N4), ZIF-8 MOF

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Authors: H. Mayton, X. Yan, A. G. Taylor

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Infested tomato seeds were used to investigate the influence of Xanthomonas euvesicatoria on germination and seed to seedling transmission in a controlled environment and greenhouse assays in an effort to develop effective seed treatments and characterize seed borne transmission of bacterial leaf spot of tomato. Bacterial leaf spot of tomato, caused by four distinct Xanthomonas species, X. euvesicatoria, X. gardneri, X. perforans, and X. vesicatoria, is a serious disease worldwide. In the United States, disease prevention is expensive for commercial growers in warm, humid regions of the country, and crop losses can be devastating. In this study, four different infested tomato seed lots were extracted from tomato fruits infected with bacterial leaf spot from a field in New York State in 2017 that had been inoculated with X. euvesicatoria. In addition, vacuum infiltration at 61 kilopascals for 1, 5, 10, and 15 minutes and seed soaking for 5, 10, 15, and 30 minutes with different bacterial concentrations were used to artificially infest seed in the laboratory. For controlled environment assays, infested tomato seeds from the field and laboratory were placed othe n moistened blue blotter in square plastic boxes (10 cm x 10 cm) and incubated at 20/30 ˚C with an 8/16 hour light cycle, respectively. Infested tomato seeds from the field and laboratory were also planted in small plastic trays in soil (peat-lite medium) and placed in the greenhouse with 24/18 ˚C day and night temperatures, respectively, with a 14-hour photoperiod. Seed germination was assessed after eight days in the laboratory and 14 days in the greenhouse. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) using the hrpB7 primers (RST65 [5’- GTCGTCGTTACGGCAAGGTGGTG-3’] and RST69 [5’-TCGCCCAGCGTCATCAGGCCATC-3’]) was performed to confirm presence or absence of the bacterial pathogen in seed lots collected from the field and in germinating seedlings in all experiments. For infested seed lots from the field, germination was lowest (84%) in the seed lot with the highest level of bacterial infestation (55%) and ranged from 84-98%. No adverse effect on germination was observed from artificially infested seeds for any bacterial concentration and method of infiltration when compared to a non-infested control. Germination in laboratory assays for artificially infested seeds ranged from 82-100%. In controlled environment assays, 2.5 % were PCR positive for the pathogen, and in the greenhouse assays, no infected seedlings were detected. From these experiments, X. euvesicatoria does not appear to adversely influence germination. The lowest rate of germination from field collected seed may be due to contamination with multiple pathogens and saprophytic organisms as no effect of artificial bacterial seed infestation in the laboratory on germination was observed. No evidence of systemic movement from seed to seedling was observed in the greenhouse assays; however, in the controlled environment assays, some seedlings were PCR positive. Additional experiments are underway with green fluorescent protein-expressing isolates to further characterize seed to seedling transmission of the bacterial leaf spot pathogen in tomato.

Keywords: bacterial leaf spot, seed germination, tomato, Xanthomonas euvesicatoria

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Authors: Lei Li, Ming M. Chai, Xiao X. Lu, Jia W. Wang

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The mixing process of two liquid layers in a cylindrical container includes the upper liquid with higher density rushing into the lower liquid with lighter density, the lower liquid rising into the upper liquid, meanwhile the two liquid layers having interactions with each other, forming vortices, spreading or dispersing in others, entraining or mixing with others. It is a complex process constituted of flow instability, turbulent mixing and other multiscale physical phenomena and having a fast evolution velocity. In order to explore the mechanism of the process and make further investigations, some experiments about the interfacial instability and mixing behavior between two liquid layers bounded in different volumes are carried out, applying the planar laser induced fluorescence (PLIF) and the high speed camera (HSC) techniques. According to the results, the evolution of interfacial instability between immiscible liquid develops faster than theoretical rate given by the Rayleigh-Taylor Instability (RTI) theory. It is reasonable to conjecture that some mechanisms except the RTI play key roles in the mixture process of two liquid layers. From the results, it is shown that the invading velocity of the upper liquid into the lower liquid does not depend on the upper liquid's volume (height). Comparing to the cases that the upper and lower containers are of identical diameter, in the case that the lower liquid volume increases to larger geometric space, the upper liquid spreads and expands into the lower liquid more quickly during the evolution of interfacial instability, indicating that the container wall has important influence on the mixing process. In the experiments of miscible liquid layers’ mixing, the diffusion time and pattern of the liquid interfacial mixing also does not depend on the upper liquid's volumes, and when the lower liquid volume increases to larger geometric space, the action of the bounded wall on the liquid falling and rising flow will decrease, and the liquid interfacial mixing effects will also attenuate. Therefore, it is also concluded that the volume weight of upper heavier liquid is not the reason of the fast interfacial instability evolution between the two liquid layers and the bounded wall action is limited to the unstable and mixing flow. The numerical simulations of the immiscible liquid layers’ interfacial instability flow using the VOF method show the typical flow pattern agree with the experiments. However the calculated instability development is much slower than the experimental measurement. The numerical simulation of the miscible liquids’ mixing, which applying Fick’s diffusion law to the components’ transport equation, shows a much faster mixing rate than the experiments on the liquids’ interface at the initial stage. It can be presumed that the interfacial tension plays an important role in the interfacial instability between the two liquid layers bounded in finite volume.

Keywords: interfacial instability and mixing, two liquid layers, Planar Laser Induced Fluorescence (PLIF), High Speed Camera (HSC), interfacial energy and tension, Cahn-Hilliard Navier-Stokes (CHNS) equations

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Authors: Renée M. Ripken, Johannes G. E. Gardeniers, Séverine Le Gac

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Controlling the multiphase behavior of aqueous biomass mixtures is essential when working in the biomass conversion industry. Here, the vapor/liquid equilibria (VLE) of ethylene glycol, glycerol, and xylitol were studied for temperatures between 25 and 200 °C and pressures of 1 to 10 bar. These experiments were performed in a microfluidic platform, which exhibits excellent heat transfer properties so that equilibrium is reached fast. Firstly, the saturated vapor pressure as a function of the temperature and the substrate mole fraction of the substrate was calculated using AspenPlus with a Redlich-Kwong-Soave Boston-Mathias (RKS-BM) model. Secondly, we developed a high-pressure and high-temperature microfluidic set-up for experimental validation. Furthermore, we have studied the multiphase flow pattern that occurs after the saturation temperature was achieved. A glass-silicon microfluidic device containing a 0.4 or 0.2 m long meandering channel with a depth of 250 μm and a width of 250 or 500 μm was fabricated using standard microfabrication techniques. This device was placed in a dedicated chip-holder, which includes a ceramic heater on the silicon side. The temperature was controlled and monitored by three K-type thermocouples: two were located between the heater and the silicon substrate, one to set the temperature and one to measure it, and the third one was placed in a 300 μm wide and 450 μm deep groove on the glass side to determine the heat loss over the silicon. An adjustable back pressure regulator and a pressure meter were added to control and evaluate the pressure during the experiment. Aqueous biomass solutions (10 wt%) were pumped at a flow rate of 10 μL/min using a syringe pump, and the temperature was slowly increased until the theoretical saturation temperature for the pre-set pressure was reached. First and surprisingly, a significant difference was observed between our theoretical saturation temperature and the experimental results. The experimental values were 10’s of degrees higher than the calculated ones and, in some cases, saturation could not be achieved. This discrepancy can be explained in different ways. Firstly, the pressure in the microchannel is locally higher due to both the thermal expansion of the liquid and the Laplace pressure that has to be overcome before a gas bubble can be formed. Secondly, superheating effects are likely to be present. Next, once saturation was reached, the flow pattern of the gas/liquid multiphase system was recorded. In our device, the point of nucleation can be controlled by taking advantage of the pressure drop across the channel and the accurate control of the temperature. Specifically, a higher temperature resulted in nucleation further upstream in the channel. As the void fraction increases downstream, the flow regime changes along the channel from bubbly flow to Taylor flow and later to annular flow. All three flow regimes were observed simultaneously. The findings of this study are key for the development and optimization of a microreactor for hydrogen production from biomass.

Keywords: biomass conversion, high pressure and high temperature microfluidics, multiphase, phase diagrams, superheating

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Authors: Agnieszka Markowska-Radomska, Ewa Dluska

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Maintaining a bioactive substances dense diet is important for the elderly, especially to prevent diseases and to support healthy ageing. Adequate bioactive substances intake can reduce the risk of developing chronic diseases (e.g. cardiovascular, osteoporosis, neurodegenerative syndromes, diseases of the oral cavity, gastrointestinal (GI) disorders, diabetes, and cancer). This can be achieved by introducing a comprehensive supplementation of components necessary for the proper functioning of the ageing body. The paper proposes the multiple emulsions of the W1/O/W2 (water-in-oil-in-water) type as carriers for effective co-encapsulation and co-delivery of bioactive substances in supplementation of the elderly. Multiple emulsions are complex structured systems ("drops in drops"). The functional structure of the W1/O/W2 emulsion enables (i) incorporation of one or more bioactive components (lipophilic and hydrophilic); (ii) enhancement of stability and bioavailability of encapsulated substances; (iii) prevention of interactions between substances, as well as with the external environment, delivery to a specific location; and (iv) release in a controlled manner. The multiple emulsions were prepared by a one-step method in the Couette-Taylor flow (CTF) contactor in a continuous manner. In general, a two-step emulsification process is used to obtain multiple emulsions. The paper contains a proposal of emulsion functionalization by introducing pH-responsive biopolymer—carboxymethylcellulose sodium salt (CMC-Na) to the external phase, which made it possible to achieve a release of components controlled by the pH of the gastrointestinal environment. The membrane phase of emulsions was soybean oil. The W1/O/W2 emulsions were evaluated for their characteristics (drops size/drop size distribution, volume packing fraction), encapsulation efficiency and stability during storage (to 30 days) at 4ºC and 25ºC. Also, the in vitro multi-substance co-release process were investigated in a simulated gastrointestinal environment (different pH and composition of release medium). Three groups of stable multiple emulsions were obtained: emulsions I with co-encapsulated vitamins B12, B6 and resveratrol; emulsions II with vitamin A and β-carotene; and emulsions III with vitamins C, E and D3. The substances were encapsulated in the appropriate emulsion phases depending on the solubility. For all emulsions, high encapsulation efficience (over 95%) and high volume packing fraction of internal droplets (0.54-0.76) were reached. In addition, due to the presence of a polymer (CMC-Na) with adhesive properties, high encapsulation stability during emulsions storage were achieved. The co-release study of encapsulated bioactive substances confirmed the possibility to modify the release profiles. It was found that the releasing process can be controlled through the composition, structure, physicochemical parameters of emulsions and pH of the release medium. The results showed that the obtained multiple emulsions might be used as potential liquid complex carriers for controlled/modified/site-specific co-delivery of bioactive substances in dietary supplementation in the elderly.

Keywords: bioactive substance co-release, co-encapsulation, elderly supplementation, multiple emulsion

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Authors: Nicoly Coelho, Eduardo Vieira Vilas Boas, Paulo Orestes Formigoni

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Faced with the remarkable developments in the various segments of modern engineering, provided by the increasing technological development, professionals of all educational areas need to overcome the difficulties generated due to the good understanding of those who are starting their academic journey. Aiming to overcome these difficulties, this article aims at an introduction to the basic study of numerical methods applied to fluid mechanics and thermodynamics, demonstrating the modeling and simulations with its substance, and a detailed explanation of the fundamental numerical solution for the use of finite difference method, using SCILAB, a free software easily accessible as it is free and can be used for any research center or university, anywhere, both in developed and developing countries. It is known that the Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) is a necessary tool for engineers and professionals who study fluid mechanics, however, the teaching of this area of knowledge in undergraduate programs faced some difficulties due to software costs and the degree of difficulty of mathematical problems involved in this way the matter is treated only in postgraduate courses. This work aims to bring the use of DFC low cost in teaching Transport Phenomena for graduation analyzing a small classic case of fundamental thermodynamics with Scilab® program. The study starts from the basic theory involving the equation the partial differential equation governing heat transfer problem, implies the need for mastery of students, discretization processes that include the basic principles of series expansion Taylor responsible for generating a system capable of convergence check equations using the concepts of Sassenfeld, finally coming to be solved by Gauss-Seidel method. In this work we demonstrated processes involving both simple problems solved manually, as well as the complex problems that required computer implementation, for which we use a small algorithm with less than 200 lines in Scilab® in heat transfer study of a heated plate in rectangular shape on four sides with different temperatures on either side, producing a two-dimensional transport with colored graphic simulation. With the spread of computer technology, numerous programs have emerged requiring great researcher programming skills. Thinking that this ability to program DFC is the main problem to be overcome, both by students and by researchers, we present in this article a hint of use of programs with less complex interface, thus enabling less difficulty in producing graphical modeling and simulation for DFC with an extension of the programming area of experience for undergraduates.

Keywords: numerical methods, finite difference method, heat transfer, Scilab

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Authors: Vinod Balakrishnan, Chrisalice Ela Joseph

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The Burmese Exodus of 1942, which left more than 4 lakh as refugees and thousands dead, is one of the worst forced migrations in recorded history. Adding to the woes of the refugees is the lack of credible documentation of their lived experiences, trauma, and stories and their erasure from recorded history. Media reports, national records, and mainstream narratives that have registered the exodus provide sanitized versions which have reduced the refugees to a nameless, faceless mass of travelers and obliterated their lived experiences, trauma, and sufferings. This attitudinal problem compels the need to stem the insensitivity that accompanies institutional memory by making a case for a more humanistically evolved policy that puts in place protocols for the way the humanities would voice the concern for the refugee. A definite step in this direction and a far more relevant project in our times is the need to build a comprehensive refugee archive that can be a repository of the refugee experiences and perspectives. The paper draws on Hannah Arendt’s position on the Jewish refugee crisis, Agamben’s work on statelessness and citizenship, Foucault’s notion of governmentality and biopolitics, Edward Said’s concepts on Exile, Fanon’s work on the dispossessed, Derrida’s work on ‘the foreigner and hospitality’ in order to conceptualize the refugee condition which will form the theoretical framework for the paper. It also refers to the existing scholarship in the field of refugee studies such as Roger Zetter’s work on the ‘refugee label’, Philip Marfleet’s work on ‘refugees and history’, Lisa Malkki’s research on the anthropological discourse of the refugee and refugee studies. The paper is also informed by the work that has been done by the international organizations to address the refugee crisis. The emphasis is on building a strong argument for the establishment of the refugee archive that finds but a passing and a none too convincing reference in refugee studies in order to enable a multi-dimensional understanding of the refugee crisis. Some of the old questions cannot be dismissed as outdated as the continuing travails of the refugees in different parts of the world only remind us that they are still, largely, unanswered. The questions are -What is the nature of a Refugee Archive? How is it different from the existing historical and political archives? What are the implications of the refugee archive? What is its contribution to refugee studies? The paper draws on Diana Taylor’s concept of the archive and the repertoire to theorize the refugee archive as a repository that has the documentary function of the ‘archive’ and the ‘agency’ function of the repertoire. It then reads Ayya’s Accounts- a memoir by Anand Pandian -in the light of Hannah Arendt’s concepts of the ‘refugee as vanguard’ and ‘story telling as political action’- to illustrate how the memoir contributes to the refugee archive that provides the refugee a place and agency in history. The paper argues for a refugee archive that has implications for the formulation of inclusive refugee policies.

Keywords: Ayya’s Accounts, Burmese Exodus, policy protocol, refugee archive

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Authors: Fernanda A. P. Peres, Thiago N. Peres, Flavio S. Fogliatto, Michel J. Anzanello

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Batch processes are widely used in food industry and have an important role in the production of high added value products, such as chocolate. Process performance is usually described by variables that are monitored as the batch progresses. Data arising from these processes are likely to display a strong correlation-autocorrelation structure, and are usually monitored using control charts based on multiway principal components analysis (MPCA). Process control of a new batch is carried out comparing the trajectories of its relevant process variables with those in a reference set of batches that yielded products within specifications; it is clear that proper determination of the reference set is key for the success of a correct signalization of non-conforming batches in such quality control schemes. In chocolate manufacturing, misclassifications of non-conforming batches in the conching phase may lead to significant financial losses. In such context, the accuracy of process control grows in relevance. In addition to that, the main assumption in MPCA-based monitoring strategies is that all batches are synchronized in duration, both the new batch being monitored and those in the reference set. Such assumption is often not satisfied in chocolate manufacturing process. As a consequence, traditional techniques as MPCA-based charts are not suitable for process control and monitoring. To address that issue, the objective of this work is to compare the performance of three dynamic time warping (DTW) methods in the alignment and synchronization of chocolate conching process variables’ trajectories, aimed at properly determining the reference distribution for multivariate statistical process control. The power of classification of batches in two categories (conforming and non-conforming) was evaluated using the k-nearest neighbor (KNN) algorithm. Real data from a milk chocolate conching process was collected and the following variables were monitored over time: frequency of soybean lecithin dosage, rotation speed of the shovels, current of the main motor of the conche, and chocolate temperature. A set of 62 batches with durations between 495 and 1,170 minutes was considered; 53% of the batches were known to be conforming based on lab test results and experts’ evaluations. Results showed that all three DTW methods tested were able to align and synchronize the conching dataset. However, synchronized datasets obtained from these methods performed differently when inputted in the KNN classification algorithm. Kassidas, MacGregor and Taylor’s (named KMT) method was deemed the best DTW method for aligning and synchronizing a milk chocolate conching dataset, presenting 93.7% accuracy, 97.2% sensitivity and 90.3% specificity in batch classification, being considered the best option to determine the reference set for the milk chocolate dataset. Such method was recommended due to the lowest number of iterations required to achieve convergence and highest average accuracy in the testing portion using the KNN classification technique.

Keywords: batch process monitoring, chocolate conching, dynamic time warping, reference set distribution, variable duration

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Authors: Tiffany Riggleman, Andrea Schultheis, Kalyn Jannace, Jerika Taylor, Michelle Nordstrom, Paul F. Pasquina

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Introduction: Posttraumatic Stress (PTS) and Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) remain significant problems for military and veteran communities. Symptoms of PTSD often include poor sleep, intrusive thoughts, difficulty concentrating, and trouble with emotional regulation. Unfortunately, despite its high prevalence, service members diagnosed with PTSD often do not seek help, usually because of the perceived stigma surrounding behavioral health care. To help address these challenges, non-pharmacological, therapeutic approaches are being developed to help improve care and enhance compliance. The Service Dog Training Program (SDTP), which involves teaching patients how to train puppies to become mobility service dogs, has been successfully implemented into PTS/PTSD care programs with anecdotal reports of improved outcomes. This study was designed to assess the biopsychosocial effects of SDTP from military beneficiaries with PTS symptoms. Methods: Individuals between the ages of 18 and 65 with PTS symptom were recruited to participate in this prospective study. Each subject completes 4 weeks of baseline testing, followed by 6 weeks of active service dog training (twice per week for one hour sessions) with a professional service dog trainer. Outcome measures included the Posttraumatic Stress Checklist for the DSM-5 (PCL-5), Generalized Anxiety Disorder questionnaire-7 (GAD-7), Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9), social support/interaction, anthropometrics, blood/serum biomarkers, and qualitative interviews. Preliminary analysis of 17 participants examined mean scores on the GAD-7, PCL-5, and PHQ-9, pre- and post-SDTP, and changes were assessed using Wilcoxon Signed-Rank tests. Results: Post-SDTP, there was a statistically significant mean decrease in PCL-5 scores of 13.5 on an 80-point scale (p=0.03) and a significant mean decrease of 2.2 in PHQ-9 scores on a 27 point scale (p=0.04), suggestive of decreased PTSD and depression symptoms. While there was a decrease in mean GAD-7 scores post-SDTP, the difference was not significant (p=0.20). Recurring themes among results from the qualitative interviews include decreased pain, forgetting about stressors, improved sense of calm, increased confidence, improved communication, and establishing a connection with the service dog. Conclusion: Preliminary results of the first 17 participants in this study suggest that individuals who received SDTP had a statistically significant decrease in PTS symptom, as measured by the PCL-5 and PHQ-9. This ongoing study seeks to enroll a total of 156 military beneficiaries with PTS symptoms. Future analyses will include additional psychological outcomes, pain scores, blood/serum biomarkers, and other measures of the social aspects of PTSD, such as relationship satisfaction and sleep hygiene.

Keywords: post-concussive syndrome, posttraumatic stress, service dog, service dog training program, traumatic brain injury

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Authors: Taylor Harris

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Gustilo-anderson grade III tibial fractures are exquisitely difficult injuries to manage as they require extensive soft tissue repair in addition to fracture fixation. These injuries are best managed collaboratively by Orthopedic and Plastic surgeons. While utilizing an Orthoplastics approach has decreased the rates of adverse outcomes in these injuries, there is a large amount of variation in exactly how an Orthoplastics team approaches complex cases such as these. It is sometimes recommended that definitive bone fixation and soft tissue coverage be completed simultaneously in a single-stage manner, but there is a paucity of large scale studies to provide evidence to support this recommendation. It is the aim of this study to report the outcomes of a single-stage "fix-and-flap" approach through a systematic review of the available literature. Hopefully, this better informs an evidence-based Orthoplastics approach to managing open tibial fractures. Systematic review of the literature was performed. Medline and Google Scholar were used and all studies published since 2000, in English were included. 103 studies were initially evaluated for inclusion. Reference lists of all included studies were also examined for potentially eligible studies. Gustilo grade III tibial shaft fractures in adults that were managed with a single-stage Orthoplastics approach were identified and evaluated with regard to outcomes of interest. Exclusion criteria included studies with patients <16 years old, case studies, systemic reviews, meta-analyses. Primary outcomes of interest were the rates of deep infections and rates of limb salvage. Secondary outcomes of interest included time to bone union, rates of non-union, and rates of re-operation. 15 studies were eligible. 11 of these studies reported rates of deep infection as an outcome, with rates ranging from 0.98%-20%. The pooled rate between studies was 7.34%. 7 studies reported rates of limb salvage with a range of 96.25%-100%. The pooled rate of the associated studies was 97.8%. 6 reported rates of non-union with a range of 0%-14%, a pooled rate of 6.6%. 6 reported time to bone union with a range of 24 to 40.3 weeks and a pooled average time of 34.2 weeks, and 4 reported rates of reoperation ranging from 7%-55%, with a pooled rate of 31.1%. A few studies that compared a single stage to a multi stage approach side-by-side unanimously favored the single stage approach. Outcomes of Gustilo grade III open tibial fractures utilizing an Orthoplastics approach that is specifically done in a single-stage produce low rates of adverse outcomes. Large scale studies of Orthoplastic collaboration that were not completed in strictly a single stage, or were completed in multiple stages, have not reported as favorable outcomes. We recommend that not only should Orthopedic surgeons and Plastic surgeons collaborate in the management of severe open tibial fracture, but they should plan to undergo definitive fixation and coverage in a single-stage for improved outcomes.

Keywords: orthoplastic, gustilo grade iii, single-stage, trauma, systematic review

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Authors: Tanya Greathosue, Adrianna Taylor, Lori Darnel, Eileen Starr, Susie Ryder, Julie Clockston, Dawn Matera Bassett, Jess Retrum

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The United States has an identified need to improve the social work mental and behavioral health workforce shortage with a focus on culturally diverse and responsive mental and behavioral health practitioners to adequately serve its rapidly growing multicultural communities. The U.S. is experiencing rapid demographic changes. Ensuring that mental and behavioral health services are effective and accessible for diverse communities is essential for improving overall health outcomes. In response to this need, we developed a training program focused on interdisciplinary collaboration, evidence-based practices, and culturally responsive services. The success of the training program, funded by the Health Resource Service Administration (HRSA) Behavioral Health Workforce Education and Training (BHWET), has provided the foundation for stage two of our programming. In addition to HRSA/BHWET, we are receiving funding from Colorado Access, a state workforce development initiative, and Kaiser Permanente, a healthcare provider network in the United States. We have moved beyond improved learner outcomes to increasing recruitment of historically excluded, disproportionately mistreated learners, mentorship of students to improve retention, and successful, culturally responsive, diverse workforce development. These authors will utilize a pretest-posttest comparison group design and trend analysis to evaluate the success of the training program. Comparison groups will be matched based on age, gender identification, race, income, as well as prior experience in the field, and time in the degree program. This article describes our culturally responsive training program. Our goals are to increase the recruitment and retention of historically excluded, disproportionately mistreated learners. We achieve this by integrating cultural humility and sensitivity training into educational curricula for our scholars who participate in cohort classroom and seminar learning. Additionally, we provide our community partners who serve as internship sites with ongoing continuing education on how to promote and develop inclusive and supportive work environments for our learners. This work will be of value to mental and behavioral health care practitioners who serve historically excluded and mistreated populations. Participants will learn about culturally informed best practices to increase recruitment and retention of culturally diverse learners. Additionally, participants will hear how to create a culturally responsive training program that encourages an inclusive community for their learners through cohort learning, mentoring, community networking, and critical accountability.

Keywords: culturally diverse mental health practitioners, recruitment, mentorship, workforce development, underserved clinics, professional development

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Authors: Zeradam Yeshiwas, A. Krishnaia

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The aim of this study is to verify the resulting surface roughness of parts formed by the Single-Point Incremental Forming (SPIF) process for an ISO 3574 Drawing Quality Cold Rolled CR2 Steel. The chemical composition of drawing quality Cold Rolled CR2 steel is comprised of 0.12 percent of carbon, 0.5 percent of manganese, 0.035 percent of sulfur, 0.04 percent phosphorous, and the remaining percentage is iron with negligible impurities. The experiments were performed on a 3-axis vertical CNC milling machining center equipped with a tool setup comprising a fixture and forming tools specifically designed and fabricated for the process. The CNC milling machine was used to transfer the tool path code generated in Mastercam 2017 environment into three-dimensional motions by the linear incremental progress of the spindle. The blanks of Drawing Quality Cold Rolled CR2 steel sheets of 1 mm of thickness have been fixed along their periphery by a fixture and hardened high-speed steel (HSS) tools with a hemispherical tip of 8, 10 and 12mm of diameter were employed to fabricate sample parts. To investigate the surface roughness, hyperbolic-cone shape specimens were fabricated based on the chosen experimental design. The effect of process parameters on the surface roughness was studied using three important process parameters, i.e., tool diameter, feed rate, and step depth. In this study, the Taylor-Hobson Surtronic 3+ surface roughness tester profilometer was used to determine the surface roughness of the parts fabricated using the arithmetic mean deviation (Rₐ). In this instrument, a small tip is dragged across a surface while its deflection is recorded. Finally, the optimum process parameters and the main factor affecting surface roughness were found using the Taguchi design of the experiment and ANOVA. A Taguchi experiment design with three factors and three levels for each factor, the standard orthogonal array L9 (3³) was selected for the study using the array selection table. The lowest value of surface roughness is significant for surface roughness improvement. For this objective, the ‘‘smaller-the-better’’ equation was used for the calculation of the S/N ratio. The finishing roughness parameter Ra has been measured for the different process combinations. The arithmetic means deviation (Rₐ) was measured via the experimental design for each combination of the control factors by using Taguchi experimental design. Four roughness measurements were taken for a single component and the average roughness was taken to optimize the surface roughness. The lowest value of Rₐ is very important for surface roughness improvement. For this reason, the ‘‘smaller-the-better’’ Equation was used for the calculation of the S/N ratio. Analysis of the effect of each control factor on the surface roughness was performed with a ‘‘S/N response table’’. Optimum surface roughness was obtained at a feed rate of 1500 mm/min, with a tool radius of 12 mm, and with a step depth of 0.5 mm. The ANOVA result shows that step depth is an essential factor affecting surface roughness (91.1 %).

Keywords: incremental forming, SPIF, drawing quality steel, surface roughness, roughness behavior

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Authors: Suparna Roy, Anatharaman Perumal

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The industrial effluent with high amount of heavy metals is known to have adverse effects on the environment. For the removal of heavy metals from aqueous environment, different conventional treatment technologies had been applied gradually which are not economically beneficial and also produce huge quantity of toxic chemical sludge. So, bio-sorption of heavy metals by marine plant is an eco-friendly innovative and alternative technology for removal of these pollutants from aqueous environment. The aim of this study is to evaluate the capacity of heavy metals accumulation and removal by some selected marine macroalgae (seaweeds) from marine environment. Methods: Seaweeds Acanthophora spicifera (Vahl.) Boergesen, Codium tomentosum Stackhouse, Halimeda gracilis Harvey ex. J. Agardh, Gracilaria opuntia Durairatnam.nom. inval. Valoniopsis pachynema (Martens) Boergesen, Caulerpa racemosa var. macrophysa (Sonder ex Kutzing) W. R. Taylor and Hydroclathrus clathratus (C. Agardh) Howe were collected from Olaikuda (09°17.526'N-079°19.662'E), Rameshwaram, south east coast of India during post monsoon period (April’2016). Seaweeds were washed with sterilized and filtered in-situ seawater repeatedly to remove all the epiphytes and debris and clean seaweeds were kept for shade drying for one week. The dried seaweeds were grinded to powder, and one gm powder seaweeds were taken in a 250ml conical flask, and 8 ml of 10 % HNO3 (70 % pure) was added to each sample and kept in room temperature (28 ̊C) for 24 hours and then samples were heated in hotplate at 120 ̊C, boiled to evaporate up to dryness and 20 ml of Nitric acid: Percholoric acid in 4:1 were added to it and again heated to hotplate at 90 ̊C up to evaporate to dryness, then samples were kept in room temperature for few minutes to cool and 10ml 10 % HNO3 were added to it and kept for 24 hours in cool and dark place and filtered with Whatman (589/2) filter paper and the filtrates were collected in 250ml clean conical flask and diluted accurately to 25 ml volume with double deionised water and triplicate of each sample were analysed with Inductively-Coupled plasma analysis (ICP-OES) to analyse total eleven heavy metals (Ag, Cd, B, Cu, Mn, Co, Ni, Cr, Pb, Zn, and Al content of the specified species and data were statistically evaluated for standard deviation. Results: Acanthophora spicifera contains highest amount of Ag (0.1± 0.2 mg/mg) followed by Cu (0.16±0.01 mg/mg), Mn (1.86±0.02 mg/mg), B (3.59±0.2 mg/mg), Halimeda gracilis showed highest accumulation of Al (384.75±0.12mg/mg), Valoniopsis pachynema accumulates maximum amount of Co (0.12±0.01 mg/mg), Zn (0.64±0.02 mg/mg), Caulerpa racemosa var. macrophysa contains Zn (0.63±0.01), Cr (0.26±0.01 mg/mg ), Ni (0.21±0.05), Pb (0.16±0.03 ) and Cd ( 0.02±00 ). Hydroclathrus clathratus, Codium tomentosum and Gracilaria opuntia also contain adequate amount of heavy metals. Conclusions: The mentioned species of seaweeds are contributing important role for decreasing the heavy metals pollution in marine environment by bioaccumulation. So, we can utilise this species to remove excess amount of heavy metals from polluted area.

Keywords: heavy metals pollution, seaweeds, bioaccumulation, eco-friendly, phyco-remediation

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Authors: Michelle E. Taylor, Clare E. Morrall

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Microplastics are small particles produced for industrial purposes or formed by breakdown of anthropogenic debris. Caribbean nations import large quantities of plastic products. The Caribbean region is vulnerable to natural disasters and Climate Change is predicted to bring multiple additional challenges to island nations. Microplastics have been found in an array of marine environments and in a diversity of marine species. Occurrence of microplastic in the intestinal tracts of marine fish is a concern to human and ecosystem health as pollutants and pathogens can associate with plastics. Studies have shown that the incidence of microplastics in marine fish varies with species and location. Prevalence of microplastics (≤ 5 mm) in fish species from Grenadian waters (representing pelagic, semi-pelagic and demersal lifestyles) harvested for human consumption have been investigated via gut analysis. Harvested tissue was digested in 10% KOH and particles retained on a 0.177 mm sieve were examined. Microplastics identified have been classified according to type, colour and size. Over 97% of fish examined thus far (n=34) contained microplastics. Current and future work includes examining the invasive Lionfish (Pterois spp.) for microplastics, investigating marine invertebrate species as well as examining environmental sources of microplastics (i.e. rivers, coastal waters and sand). Owing to concerns of pollutant accumulation on microplastics and potential migration into organismal tissues, we plan to analyse fish tissue for mercury and other persistent pollutants. Despite having ~110,000 inhabitants, the island nation of Grenada imported approximately 33 million plastic bottles in 2013, of which it is estimated less than 5% were recycled. Over 30% of the imported bottles were ‘unmanaged’, and as such are potential litter/marine debris. A revised Litter Abatement Act passed into law in Grenada in 2015, but little enforcement of the law is evident to date. A local Non-governmental organization (NGO) ‘The Grenada Green Group’ (G3) is focused on reducing litter in Grenada through lobbying government to implement the revised act and running sessions in schools, community groups and on local media and social media to raise awareness of the problems associated with plastics. A local private company has indicated willingness to support an Anti-Litter Campaign in 2018 and local awareness of the need for a reduction of single use plastic use and litter seems to be high. The Government of Grenada have called for a Sustainable Waste Management Strategy and a ban on both Styrofoam and plastic grocery bags are among recommendations recently submitted. A Styrofoam ban will be in place at the St. George’s University campus from January 1st, 2018 and many local businesses have already voluntarily moved away from Styrofoam. Our findings underscore the importance of continuing investigations into microplastics in marine life; this will contribute to understanding the associated health risks. Furthermore, our findings support action to mitigate the volume of plastics entering the world’s oceans. We hope that Grenada’s future will involve a lot less plastic. This research was supported by the Caribbean Node of the Global Partnership on Marine Litter.

Keywords: Caribbean, microplastics, pollution, small island developing nation

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Authors: Chandranath Chatterjee, Amina Khatun, Bhabagrahi Sahoo

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With the changing climate, precipitation events are intensified in the tropical river basins. Since these river basins are significantly influenced by the monsoonal rainfall pattern, critical impacts are observed on the agricultural practices in the downstream river reaches. This study analyses the crop damage and associated flood risk in terms of net benefit in the paddy-dominated tropical Indian delta of the Mahanadi River. The Mahanadi River basin lies in eastern part of the Indian sub-continent and is greatly affected by the southwest monsoon rainfall extending from the month of June to September. This river delta is highly flood-prone and has suffered from recurring high floods, especially after the 2000s. In this study, the lumped conceptual model, Nedbør Afstrømnings Model (NAM) from the suite of MIKE models, is used for rainfall-runoff modeling. The NAM model is laterally integrated with the MIKE11-Hydrodynamic (HD) model to route the runoffs up to the head of the delta region. To obtain the precipitation-derived future projected discharges at the head of the delta, nine Global Climate Models (GCMs), namely, BCC-CSM1.1(m), GFDL-CM3, GFDL-ESM2G, HadGEM2-AO, IPSL-CM5A-LR, IPSL-CM5A-MR, MIROC5, MIROC-ESM-CHEM and NorESM1-M, available in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 5 (CMIP5) archive are considered. These nine GCMs are previously found to best-capture the Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall. Based on the performance of the nine GCMs in reproducing the historical discharge pattern, three GCMs (HadGEM2-AO, IPSL-CM5A-MR and MIROC-ESM-CHEM) are selected. A higher Taylor Skill Score is considered as the GCM selection criteria. Thereafter, the 10-year return period design flood is estimated using L-moments based flood frequency analysis for the historical and three future projected periods (2010-2039, 2040-2069 and 2070-2099) under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. A non-dimensional hydrograph analysis is performed to obtain the hydrographs for the historical/projected 10-year return period design floods. These hydrographs are forced into the calibrated and validated coupled 1D-2D hydrodynamic model, MIKE FLOOD, to simulate the flood inundation in the delta region. Historical and projected flood risk is defined based on the information about the flood inundation simulated by the MIKE FLOOD model and the inundation depth-damage-duration relationship of a normal rice variety cultivated in the river delta. In general, flood risk is expected to increase in all the future projected time periods as compared to the historical episode. Further, in comparison to the 2010s (2010-2039), an increased flood risk in the 2040s (2040-2069) is shown by all the three selected GCMs. However, the flood risk then declines in the 2070s as we move towards the end of the century (2070-2099). The methodology adopted herein for flood risk assessment is one of its kind and may be implemented in any world-river basin. The results obtained from this study can help in future flood preparedness by implementing suitable flood adaptation strategies.

Keywords: flood frequency analysis, flood risk, global climate models (GCMs), paddy cultivation

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