Search results for: cloud service models

Authors: Asimina Paparrigopoulou, John Pavlopoulos, Maria Konstantinidou

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Dating papyri accurately is crucial not only to editing their texts but also for our understanding of palaeography and the history of writing, ancient scholarship, material culture, networks in antiquity, etc. Most ancient manuscripts offer little evidence regarding the time of their production, forcing papyrologists to date them on palaeographical grounds, a method often criticized for its subjectivity. By experimenting with data obtained from the Collaborative Database of Dateable Greek Bookhands and the PapPal online collections of objectively dated Greek papyri, this study shows that deep learning dating models, pre-trained on generic images, can achieve accurate chronological estimates for a test subset (67,97% accuracy for book hands and 55,25% for documents). To compare the estimates of these models with those of humans, experts were asked to complete a questionnaire with samples of literary and documentary hands that had to be sorted chronologically by century. The same samples were dated by the models in question. The results are presented and analysed.

Keywords: image classification, papyri images, dating

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Authors: Emir H. Pernet, Jeimy J. Cano

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Maturity models, used descriptively to explain changes in reality or normatively to guide managers to make interventions to make organizations more effective and efficient, are based on the principles of statistical quality control promulgated by Shewhart in the years 30, and on the principles of PDCA continuous improvement (Plan, Do, Check, Act) developed by Deming and Juran. Some frameworks developed over the concept of maturity models includes COBIT, CMM, and ITIL. This paper presents some limitations of traditional maturity models, most of them based on points of reflection and analysis done by some authors. Almost all limitations are related to the mechanistic and reductionist approach of the principles over those models are built. As Systems Theory helps the understanding of the dynamics of organizations and organizational change, the development of a systemic maturity model can help to overcome some of those limitations. This document proposes a systemic maturity model, based on a systemic conceptualization of organizations, focused on the study of the functioning of the parties, the relationships among them, and their behavior as a whole. The concept of maturity from the system theory perspective is conceptually defined as an emergent property of the organization, which arises from as a result of the degree of alignment and integration of their processes. This concept is operationalized through a systemic function that measures the maturity of an organization, and finally validated by the measuring of maturity in organizations. For its operationalization and validation, the model was applied to measure the maturity of organizational Governance, Risk and Compliance (GRC) processes.

Keywords: GRC, maturity model, systems theory, viable system model

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Authors: Bret Brooks

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As the international community has focused their attention in recent times on international and transnational terrorism, many nations have ignored their own domestic terrorist groups. Domestic terrorism has significantly evolved over the last 15 years and as such nation states must adequately understand their own individual issues as well as the broader worldwide perspective. Contemporary models show that obtaining peace with domestic groups is not only the end goal, but also very obtainable. By evaluating modern examples and incorporating successful strategies, countries around the world have the ability to bring about a diplomatic resolution to domestic extremism and domestic terrorism.

Keywords: domestic, evolution, peace, terrorism

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Authors: Rizwan Rizwan

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Differentially private ({DP}) training preserves the data privacy but often leads to slower convergence and lower accuracy, along with notable mis-calibration compared to non-private training. Analyzing {DP} training through a continuous-time approach with the neural tangent kernel ({NTK}). The {NTK} helps characterize per sample {(PS)} gradient clipping and the incorporation of noise during {DP} training across arbitrary network architectures as well as loss functions. Our analysis reveals that noise addition impacts privacy risk exclusively, leaving convergence and calibration unaffected. In contrast, {PS} gradient clipping (flat styles, layerwise styles) influences convergence as well as calibration but not privacy risk. Models with a small clipping norm generally achieve optimal accuracy but exhibit poor calibration, making them less reliable. Conversely, {DP} models that are trained with a large clipping norm maintain the similar accuracy and same privacy guarantee, yet they demonstrate notably improved calibration.

Keywords: deep learning, convergence, differential privacy, calibration

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Authors: Jelena Zivkovic, Haidar Mohammed, Elaf Saeed

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Student affairs services play a critical role in contributing to the wholistic development and success of students as they progress through their academic careers. The study encompasses a multifaceted examination of student affairs service offerings amongst 10 private and 3 public Baghdad universities. Student affairs administrators (13) were surveyed along with over 300 students to determine university-sponsored services and student satisfaction and awareness. The student affairs service research findings varied significantly between private and public institutions and those that followed a national and international curriculum. Universities need to persist to adapt to changing demographics and technological advancements to enhance students' personal and academic successes, and student affairs services are key to preparing graduates to thrive in a diverse global world.

Keywords: student affairs, student success, higher education, Iraq, universities, Baghdad

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Authors: Kafeero Frank

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This study aimed at developing a frame work for open source software adoption in an institution of higher learning in Uganda, with the case of KIU as a study area. There were mainly four research questions based on; individual staff interaction with open source software forum, perceived FOSS characteristics, organizational characteristics and external characteristics as factors that affect open source software adoption. The researcher used causal-correlation research design to study effects of these variables on open source software adoption. A quantitative approach was used in this study with self-administered questionnaire on a purposively and randomly sampled sample of university ICT staff. Resultant data was analyzed using means, correlation coefficients and multivariate multiple regression analysis as statistical tools. The study reveals that individual staff interaction with open source software forum and perceived FOSS characteristics were the primary factors that significantly affect FOSS adoption while organizational and external factors were secondary with no significant effect but significant correlation to open source software adoption. It was concluded that for effective open source software adoption to occur there must be more effort on primary factors with subsequent reinforcement of secondary factors to fulfill the primary factors and adoption of open source software. Lastly recommendations were made in line with conclusions for coming up with Kyambogo University frame work for open source software adoption in institutions of higher learning. Areas of further research recommended include; Stakeholders’ analysis of open source software adoption in Uganda; Challenges and way forward. Evaluation of Kyambogo University frame work for open source software adoption in institutions of higher learning. Framework development for cloud computing adoption in Ugandan universities. Framework for FOSS development in Uganda IT industry

Keywords: open source software., organisational characteristics, external characteristics, cloud computing adoption

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Authors: Khemnath Kharel

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Forest itself is a factory as well as product. It supplies tangible and intangible goods and services. It supplies timber, fuel wood, fodder, grass leaf litter as well as non timber edible goods and medicinal and aromatic products additionally provides environmental services. These environmental services are of local, national, or even global importance. In Nepal more than 19 thousands community forests are providing environmental service in less economic benefit than actual efficiency. There is a risk of cost of management of those forest exceeds benefits and forests get converted to open access resources in future. Most of the environmental goods and services don’t have markets which mean no prices at which they are available to the consumers therefore the valuation of these services goods and services establishment of paying mechanism for such services and insure the benefit to community is more relevant in local as well as global scale. There are few examples of carbon trading in domestic level to meet the country wide emission goal. In this contest the study aims to explore the public attitude towards carbon offsetting and their responsibility over service providers. This study helps in promotion of environment service awareness among general people and service provider; community forest. The research helps to unveil the carbon pool scenario in community forest and willingness to pay for carbon offsetting of people who are consuming more energy than general people and emitting relatively more carbon in atmosphere. The study has assessed the carbon pool status in two community forest. In the study in two community forests carbon pools were assessed following the guideline “Forest Carbon Inventory Guideline 2010” prescribed by Ministry of Forest and soil Conservation, Nepal. Final out comes of analysis in intensively managed area of Hokse CF recorded as 103.58 tons C /ha with 6173.30 tons carbon stock. Similarly in Hariyali CF carbon density was recorded 251.72 mg C /ha. The total carbon stock of intensively managed blocks in Hariyali CF is 35839.62 tons carbon.

Keywords: carbon, offsetting, sequestration, valuation

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Authors: Sunny Ewankhiwimen Aigbomian

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Time, is a scarce resource and in everything we do, time is required to accomplish any given task. The need for this presentation is predicated on the way majority of Nigerian especially in the public sector operators see “Time Management”. Time as resources cannot be regained if lost or managed badly. As a significant aspect of human life it should be handled with diligence and utmost seriousness if the public sector is to function as a coordinated entity. In our homes, private life and offices, we schedule different things to ensure that some things do not go the unexpected. When it comes to service delivery on the part of government, it ought to be more serious because government is all about effect and efficient service delivery and “Time” is a significant variable necessary to successful accomplishment. The need for Nigerian government to re-examine time management in her public sector with a view of repositioning the sector to be able to compete well with other public sectors in the world. The peculiarity of Time management in Public Sector in Nigerian context as examined and some useful recommendations of immerse assistance proffered.

Keywords: Nigeria, public sector, time management, task

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Authors: I. Mentziou, C. Delezos, A. Nestoridou, G. Boskou

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Introduction: The system of production and distribution of meals can have a significant impact on the food intake of hospital patients who are likely to develop malnutrition. In hospitals, the consequences of food borne infections can range from annoying to life-threatening for a patient, since they can lead up to death in vulnerable groups. Aim: The aim of the present study was to evaluate the satisfaction of the patients from the food services in Greek hospitals. Methods: Eleven hospitals of the Attica region were chosen. The sample derived from 637 adult patients who were hospitalized in those hospitals, during the period September 2009 - April 2010. Tailor made questionnaires were used to interview patients upon their satisfaction from the current food service system as well as from the total quality management system of the hospital. The number of completed questionnaires was proportional to the hospital capacity. Results: The majority of the patients seem to be pleased from the quality and the variety of the meals; they judged positively the behaviour of the food service personnel and the hygiene of serving conditions. Patients made suggestions for more frequent meals, larger variety of choices and better presented meals served under proper hygiene conditions by the personnel. Conclusions: The results indicate that the patients are satisfied in regards to the meal choices and the serving methods. However, factors like temperature and hygiene conditions are not always perceived to be in a way that fulfills the necessary prerequisite requirements. A total quality management system as a driver for better patient satisfaction is Indispensable.

Keywords: evaluation, food service, HACCP, hospital, patients

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Authors: A. K. M. Kamrul Islam, Abdelhamid Bouchachia, Suang Cang, Hongnian Yu

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Forecasting model has a great impact in terms of prediction and continues to do so into the future. Although many forecasting models have been studied in recent years, most researchers focus on different forecasting methods based on fuzzy time series to solve forecasting problems. The forecasted models accuracy fully depends on the two terms that are the length of the interval in the universe of discourse and the content of the forecast rules. Moreover, a hybrid forecasting method can be an effective and efficient way to improve forecasts rather than an individual forecasting model. There are different hybrids forecasting models which combined fuzzy time series with evolutionary algorithms, but the performances are not quite satisfactory. In this paper, we proposed a hybrid forecasting model which deals with the first order as well as high order fuzzy time series and particle swarm optimization to improve the forecasted accuracy. The proposed method used the historical enrollments of the University of Alabama as dataset in the forecasting process. Firstly, we considered an automatic clustering algorithm to calculate the appropriate interval for the historical enrollments. Then particle swarm optimization and fuzzy time series are combined that shows better forecasting accuracy than other existing forecasting models.

Keywords: fuzzy time series (fts), particle swarm optimization, clustering algorithm, hybrid forecasting model

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Authors: Slim Namouchi, Bruno Vallet, Imed Riadh Farah

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3D urban models provide powerful tools for decision making, urban planning, and smart city services. The accuracy of this 3D based systems is directly related to the quality of these models. Since manual large-scale modeling, such as cities or countries is highly time intensive and very expensive process, a fully automatic 3D building generation is needed. However, 3D modeling process result depends on the input data, the proprieties of the captured objects, and the required characteristics of the reconstructed 3D model. Nowadays, producing 3D real-world model is no longer a problem. Remotely sensed data had experienced a remarkable increase in the recent years, especially data acquired using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV). While the scanning techniques are developing, the captured data amount and the resolution are getting bigger and more precise. This paper presents a literature review, which aims to identify different methods of automatic 3D buildings extractions either from LiDAR or the combination of LiDAR and satellite or aerial images. Then, we present open source technologies, and data models (e.g., CityGML, PostGIS, Cesiumjs) used to integrate these models in geospatial base layers for smart city services.

Keywords: CityGML, LiDAR, remote sensing, SIG, Smart City, 3D urban modeling

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Authors: Afolabi K. Esther, Kuye Tolulope, Babafemi, L. Olayemi, Omikunle Yemisi

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Background: Cervical cancer is a potentially preventable disease of public significance. All sexually active women are at risk of cervical cancer; however, the uptake and coverage are low in low-middle resource countries. Hence, the programme explored the feasibility of demonstrating an innovative and low-cost system approach to cervical cancer screening service delivery among reproductive-aged women in low–resource settings in Southwestern Nigeria. This was to promote the uptake and quality improvement of cervical cancer screening services. Methods: This study was an intervention project in three senatorial districts in Osun State that have primary, secondary and tertiary health facilities. The project was in three phases; Pre-intervention, Intervention, and Post-intervention. The study utilised the existing infrastructure, facilities and staff in project settings. The study population was nurse-midwives, community health workers and reproductive-aged women (30-49 years). The intervention phase entailed using innovative, culturally appropriate strategies to create awareness of cervical cancer and preventive health-seeking behaviour among women in the reproductive-aged group (30-49) years. Also, the service providers (community health workers, Nurses, and Midwives) were trained on screening methods and treatment of pre-cancerous lesions, and there was the provision of essential equipment and supplies for cervical cancer screening services at health facilities. Besides, advocacy and engagement were made with relevant stakeholders to integrate the cervical cancer screening services into related reproductive health services and greater allocation of resources. The expected results compared the pre and post-intervention using the baseline and process indicators and the effect of the intervention phase on screening coverage using a plausibility assessment design. The project lasted 12 months; visual Inspection with Acetic acid (VIA) screening for the women for six months and follow-up in 6 months for women receiving treatment. Results: The pre-intervention phase assessed baseline service delivery statistics in the previous 12 months drawn from the retrospective data collected as part of the routine monitoring and reporting systems. The uptake of cervical cancer screening services was low as the number of women screened in the previous 12 months was 156. Service personnel's competency level was fair (54%), and limited availability of essential equipment and supplies for cervical cancer screening services. At the post-intervention phase, the level of uptake had increased as the number of women screened was 1586 within six months in the study settings. This showed about a 100-%increase in the uptake of cervical cancer screening services compared with the baseline assessment. Also, the post-intervention level of competency of service delivery personnel had increased to 86.3%, which indicates quality improvement of the cervical cancer screening service delivery. Conclusion: the findings from the study have shown an effective approach to strengthening and improving cervical cancer screening service delivery in Southwestern Nigeria. Hence, the intervention promoted a positive attitude and health-seeking behaviour among the target population, significantly influencing the uptake of cervical cancer screening services.

Keywords: cervical cancer, screening, nigeria, health system strengthening

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Authors: Dua Hişam, Serhat İkizoğlu

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Identifying the problem behind balance disorder is one of the most interesting topics in the medical literature. This study has considerably enhanced the development of artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms applying multiple machine learning (ML) models to sensory data on gait collected from humans to classify between normal people and those suffering from Vestibular System (VS) problems. Although AI is widely utilized as a diagnostic tool in medicine, AI models have not been used to perform feature extraction and identify VS disorders through training on raw data. In this study, three machine learning (ML) models, the Random Forest Classifier (RF), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), and K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), have been trained to detect VS disorder, and the performance comparison of the algorithms has been made using accuracy, recall, precision, and f1-score. With an accuracy of 95.28 %, Random Forest Classifier (RF) was the most accurate model.

Keywords: vestibular disorder, machine learning, random forest classifier, k-nearest neighbor, extreme gradient boosting

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Authors: E. N. Jansen van Vuuren

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When visiting Foundation Phase (FP) students during their Teaching Practice at schools in rural Mpumalanga, the lack of music education is evident through the absence of musical sounds, with the exception of a limited repertoire of songs that are sung by all classes everywhere you go. The absence of music teaching resources such as posters and music instruments add to the perception that generalist teachers in the FP are not teaching music. Pre-service students also acknowledge that they have never seen a music class being taught during their teaching practice visits at schools. This lack of music mentoring impacts the quality of teachers who are about to enter the workforce and ultimately results in the perpetuation of no music education in many rural schools. The situation in more affluent schools present a contrasting picture with music education being given a high priority and generalist teachers often being supported by music specialists, paid for by the parents. When student teachers start their music course, they have limited knowledge to use as a foundation for their studies. The aim of the study was to ascertain the music knowledge that students gained throughout their school careers so that the curriculum could be adapted to suit their needs. By knowing exactly what pre-service teachers know about music, the limited tuition time at tertiary level can be used in the most suitable manner and concentrate on filling the knowledge gaps. Many scholars write about the decline of music education in South African schools and mention reasons, but the exact music knowledge void amongst students does not feature in the studies. Knowing the parameters of students’ music knowledge will empower lecturers to restructure their curricula to meet the needs of pre-service students. The research question asks, “what is the extent of the music void amongst rural pre-service teachers in a B.Ed. FP course at an African university?” This action research was done using a pragmatic paradigm and mixed methodology. First year students in the cohort studying for a B.Ed. in FP were requested to complete an online baseline assessment to determine the status quo. This assessment was compiled using the CAPS music content for Grade R to 9. The data was sorted using the elements of music as a framework. Findings indicate that students do not have a suitable foundation in music education despite supposedly having had music tuition from grade R to grade 9. Knowing the content required to fill the lack of knowledge provides academics with valuable information to amend their curricula and to ensure that future teachers will be able to provide rural learners with the same foundations in music as those received by learners in more affluent schools. It is only then that the rich music culture of the African continent will thrive.

Keywords: generalist educators, music education, music curriculum, pre-service teachers

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Authors: Monika Chuchro

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This paper presents a preliminary attempt to apply classification of time series using meta-clusters in order to improve the quality of regression models. In this case, clustering was performed as a method to obtain a subgroups of time series data with normal distribution from inflow into waste water treatment plant data which Composed of several groups differing by mean value. Two simple algorithms: K-mean and EM were chosen as a clustering method. The rand index was used to measure the similarity. After simple meta-clustering, regression model was performed for each subgroups. The final model was a sum of subgroups models. The quality of obtained model was compared with the regression model made using the same explanatory variables but with no clustering of data. Results were compared by determination coefficient (R2), measure of prediction accuracy mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and comparison on linear chart. Preliminary results allows to foresee the potential of the presented technique.

Keywords: clustering, data analysis, data mining, predictive models

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Authors: Deepa Kapoor, Rajshree Singh

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This paper appreciates the emergence and growing importance as a new production factor makes the development of technologies, methodologies and strategies for measurement, creation, and diffusion into one of the main priorities of the organizations in the knowledge society. There are many models for creation and management of knowledge and diverse and varied perspectives for study, analysis, and understanding. In this article, we will conduct a theoretical approach to the type of models for the creation and management of knowledge; we will discuss some of them and see some of the difficulties and the key factors that determine the success of the processes for the creation and management of knowledge.

Keywords: knowledge creation, knowledge management, organizational development, organization learning

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Authors: A. M. Ahmed, Mona A. Darwish

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Removal of Ni++ ions from aqueous solution by sorption ontoNano-bentonite was investigated. Experiments were carried out as a function amount of Nano-bentonite, pH, concentration of metal, constant time, agitation speed and temperature. The adsorption parameter of metal ions followed the Langmuir Freundlich adsorption isotherm were applied to analyze adsorption data. The adsorption process has fit pseudo-second order kinetic models. Thermodynamics parameters e.g.ΔG*, ΔS °and ΔH ° of adsorption process have also been calculated and the sorption process was found to be endothermic. The adsorption process has fit pseudo-second order kinetic models. Langmuir and Freundich adsorption isotherm models were applied to analyze adsorption data and both were found to be applicable to the adsorption process. Thermodynamic parameters, e.g., ∆G °, ∆S ° and ∆H ° of the on-going adsorption process have also been calculated and the sorption process was found to be endothermic. Finally, it can be seen that Bentonite was found to be more effective for the removal of Ni (II) same with some experimental conditions.

Keywords: waste water, nickel, bentonite, adsorption

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Authors: Yifu Ding, Vijay Avinash, Malcolm McCulloch

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As the proliferation of decentralized energy systems, the UK power system allows small-scale entities such as microgrids (MGs) to tender multiple energy services including energy arbitrage and frequency responses (FRs). However, its operation requires the balance between the uncertain renewable generations and loads in real-time and has to fulfill their provision requirements of contract services continuously during the time window agreed, otherwise it will be penalized for the under-delivered provision. To hedge against risks due to uncertainties and maximize the economic benefits, we propose a stochastic model predictive control (SMPC) framework to optimize its operation for the multi-service provision. Distinguished from previous works, we include a detailed economic-degradation model of the lithium-ion battery to quantify the costs of different service provisions, as well as accurately describe the changing dynamics of the battery. Considering a branch of load and generation scenarios and the battery aging, we formulate a risk-averse cost function using conditional value at risk (CVaR). It aims to achieve the maximum expected net revenue and avoids severe losses. The framework will be performed on a case study of a PV-battery grid-tied microgrid in the UK with real-life data. To highlight its performance, the framework will be compared with the case without the degradation model and the deterministic formulation.

Keywords: model predictive control (MPC), battery degradation, frequency response, microgrids

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Authors: Nattapol Pourprasert

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This research is to study qualitative research having two objectives: 1. to study comparison of private sector of government to compare with ASEAN Member States, 2. to study trend of private enterprise administration of ASEAN Member States. The results are: (1) Thai people focus on personal resource administrative system, (2) Indonesia focuses on official system by good administrative principles, (3) Malaysia focuses on technology development to service people, (4) Philippines focuses on operation system development, (5) Singapore focuses on public service development, (6) Brunei Darussalam focuses on equality in government service of people, (7) Vietnam focuses on creating government labor base and develop testing and administration of operation test, (8) Myanmar focuses on human resources development, (9) Laos focuses on form of local administration, (10) Cambodia focuses on policy revolution in personal resources. The result of the second part of the study are: (1) Thailand created government personnel to be power under qualitative official structural event, (2) Indonesia has Bureaucracy Reform Roadmap of Bureaucracy Reform and National Development Plan Medium Term, (3) Malaysia has database for people service, (4) Philippines follows up control of units operation by government policy, (5) Singapore created reliability, participation of people to set government policy people’s demand, (6) Brunei Darussalam has social welfare to people, (7) Vietnam revolved testing system and administration including manpower base construction of government effectively, (8) Myanmar creates high rank administrators to develop country, (9) Laos distributes power to locality, and (10) Cambodia revolved personnel resource policy.

Keywords: public administration development, ASEAN member states, private sector, government

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Authors: Carlos Theran, Yohn Parra Bautista, Victor Adankai, Richard Alo, Jimwi Liu, Clement G. Yedjou

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Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a neurodegenerative disorder primarily characterized by deteriorating cognitive functions. AD has gained relevant attention in the last decade. An estimated 24 million people worldwide suffered from this disease by 2011. In 2016 an estimated 40 million were diagnosed with AD, and for 2050 is expected to reach 131 million people affected by AD. Therefore, detecting and confirming AD at its different stages is a priority for medical practices to provide adequate and accurate treatments. Recently, Machine Learning (ML) models have been used to study AD's stages handling missing values in multiclass, focusing on the delineation of Early Mild Cognitive Impairment (EMCI), Late Mild Cognitive Impairment (LMCI), and normal cognitive (CN). But, to our best knowledge, robust performance information of these models and the missing data analysis has not been presented in the literature. In this paper, we propose studying the performance of five different machine learning models for AD's stages multiclass prediction in terms of accuracy, precision, and F1-score. Also, the analysis of three imputation methods to handle the missing value problem is presented. A framework that integrates ML model for AD's stages multiclass prediction is proposed, performing an average accuracy of 84%.

Keywords: alzheimer's disease, missing value, machine learning, performance evaluation

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Authors: Hamid Tavakolipour, Mohsen Mokhtarian, Ahmad Kalbasi Ashtari

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In this study, the effect of various drying methods (sun drying, shade drying and industrial drying) on final moisture content, shell splitting degree, shrinkage and color change were studied. Sun drying resulted higher degree of pistachio nuts shell splitting on pistachio nuts relative other drying methods. The ANOVA results showed that the different drying methods did not significantly effects on color change of dried pistachio nut. The results illustrated that pistachio nut dried by industrial drying had the lowest moisture content. After the end of drying process, initially, the experimental drying data were fitted with five famous drying models namely Newton, Page, Silva et al., Peleg and Henderson and Pabis. The results indicated that Peleg and Page models gave better results compared with other models to monitor the moisture ratio’s pistachio nut in industrial drying and open sun (or shade drying) methods, respectively.

Keywords: industrial drying, pistachio, quality properties, traditional drying

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Authors: Ines Gasmi, Salima Smiti, Makram Soui, Khaled Ghedira

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Credit risk is considered as one of the important issues for financial institutions. It provokes great losses for banks. To this objective, numerous methods for credit risk evaluation have been proposed. Many evaluation methods are black box models that cannot adequately reveal information hidden in the data. However, several works have focused on building transparent rules-based models. For credit risk assessment, generated rules must be not only highly accurate, but also highly interpretable. In this paper, we aim to build both, an accurate and transparent credit risk evaluation model which proposes a set of classification rules. In fact, we consider the credit risk evaluation as an optimization problem which uses a genetic programming (GP) algorithm, where the goal is to maximize the accuracy of generated rules. We evaluate our proposed approach on the base of German and Australian credit datasets. We compared our finding with some existing works; the result shows that the proposed GP outperforms the other models.

Keywords: credit risk assessment, rule generation, genetic programming, feature selection

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Authors: M. A. C. S. Sampath Fernando, James M. Curran, Renate Meyer

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Forensic DNA analysis has received much attention over the last three decades, due to its incredible usefulness in human identification. The statistical interpretation of DNA evidence is recognised as one of the most mature fields in forensic science. Peak heights in an Electropherogram (EPG) are approximately proportional to the amount of template DNA in the original sample being tested. A stutter is a minor peak in an EPG, which is not masking as an allele of a potential contributor, and considered as an artefact that is presumed to be arisen due to miscopying or slippage during the PCR. Stutter peaks are mostly analysed in terms of stutter ratio that is calculated relative to the corresponding parent allele height. Analysis of mixture profiles has always been problematic in evidence interpretation, especially with the presence of PCR artefacts like stutters. Unlike binary and semi-continuous models; continuous models assign a probability (as a continuous weight) for each possible genotype combination, and significantly enhances the use of continuous peak height information resulting in more efficient reliable interpretations. Therefore, the presence of a sound methodology to distinguish between stutters and real alleles is essential for the accuracy of the interpretation. Sensibly, any such method has to be able to focus on modelling stutter peaks. Bayesian nonparametric methods provide increased flexibility in applied statistical modelling. Mixture models are frequently employed as fundamental data analysis tools in clustering and classification of data and assume unidentified heterogeneous sources for data. In model-based clustering, each unknown source is reflected by a cluster, and the clusters are modelled using parametric models. Specifying the number of components in finite mixture models, however, is practically difficult even though the calculations are relatively simple. Infinite mixture models, in contrast, do not require the user to specify the number of components. Instead, a Dirichlet process, which is an infinite-dimensional generalization of the Dirichlet distribution, is used to deal with the problem of a number of components. Chinese restaurant process (CRP), Stick-breaking process and Pólya urn scheme are frequently used as Dirichlet priors in Bayesian mixture models. In this study, we illustrate an infinite mixture of simple linear regression models for modelling stutter ratio and introduce some modifications to overcome weaknesses associated with CRP.

Keywords: Chinese restaurant process, Dirichlet prior, infinite mixture model, PCR stutter

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Authors: Anita Setianingrum, Oki S. Jaya, Zuherman Rustam

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Forecasting stock price is a challenging task due to the complex time series of the data. The complexity arises from many variables that affect the stock market. Many time series models have been proposed before, but those previous models still have some problems: 1) put the subjectivity of choosing the technical indicators, and 2) rely upon some assumptions about the variables, so it is limited to be applied to all datasets. Therefore, this paper studied a novel Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) time series model based on Support Vector Regression (SVR) for forecasting the stock market. In order to evaluate the performance of proposed models, stock market transaction data of TAIEX and HIS from January to December 2015 is collected as experimental datasets. As a result, the method has outperformed its counterparts in terms of accuracy.

Keywords: ANFIS, fuzzy time series, stock forecasting, SVR

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Authors: S. A. Al-Qallaf, S. A. Al-Mawsawi, A. Haider

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Among all FACTS devices, the unified power flow controller (UPFC) is considered to be the most versatile device. This is due to its capability to control all the transmission system parameters (impedance, voltage magnitude, and phase angle). With the growing interest in UPFC, the attention to develop a mathematical model has increased. Several models were introduced for UPFC in literature for different type of studies in power systems. In this paper a novel comparison study between two dynamic models of UPFC with their proposed control strategies.

Keywords: FACTS, UPFC, dynamic modeling, PWM, fundamental frequency

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Authors: Mohammed Alokshiya, Alaeddinne D. Eljamassi

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This study discusses the condition of bus service in Gaza Strip through testing certain hypotheses assuming that public is not satisfied with bus system in Gaza. This testing is proceeded using questionnaire. The study also includes the evaluation of ten bus stops in Gaza city as a case study using GIS, and suggests a design case study for the bus system in the university zone in Gaza city. The research indicates that there is a general dissatisfaction with bus system in Gaza Strip, with respect to buses in service, drivers and bus stops. The study also gives a design for a bus stop and its frequency in university zone in Gaza city. Finally, the researcher recommends that more interest should be given to bus system, through actual procedures such as insuring the suitability of bus for transferring passengers before updating bus license, decreasing taxes of importing new buses, and holding awareness raising sessions for bus drivers.

Keywords: public transport, bus system, public satisfaction, bus stop locating

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Authors: Sonia Arradaza-Pajaron, Maria Aida Manila

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Teaching is considered the noblest yet believed to be one of the most complicated and challenging professions. Along this view, every teacher-producing institution should look into producing quality pre-service graduates who are efficacious enough with the right attitude and to deal with the task accorded to them. This study investigated the association between self-efficacy and attitude of graduating pre-service teachers with their actual student teaching performance. Survey questionnaires on self-efficacy and attitude toward practice teaching were fielded to the 90 actual respondents while their practice teaching grade was extracted to serve as the other main variable. Data were analyzed and treated statistically utilizing weighted mean and Pearson r to determine the relationship of variables of the study. Findings revealed that attitude of respondents of the three curricular programs was favorable, and they are self-efficacious. Their practice teaching performance was interpreted as very good. Results further showed a significant positive relationship between their self-efficacy and practice teaching performance. It showed that their rating was a manifestation of self- efficacious group. Although they exude positive attitude towards practice teaching, yet no significant relationship was seen with their attitude and performance. Moreover, data manifested that most of them can pay attention during their conduct of lessons in the class, as well as, listen attentively to their cooperating teachers during post conferences. They can perform student teaching tasks better even when there were other interesting things to do. Most of all, they can regulate or suppress not so pleasant thoughts or feelings and take things lightly even in most challenging situations. As gleaned from the results, it can be concluded that there was an association between self-efficacy and practice teaching performance of the respondents.

Keywords: academic achievement, attitude, self-efficacy, student teaching performance

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Authors: Abolghasem Akbari

Abstract:

The Natural Resources Conservation Service Curve Number (NRCS-CN) method is widely used for predicting direct runoff from rainfall. It employs the hydrologic soil groups and land use information along with period soil moisture conditions to derive NRCS-CN. This method has been well documented and available in popular rainfall-runoff models such as HEC-HMS, SWAT, SWMM and much more. Despite all benefits and advantages of this well documented and easy-to-use method, it does not take into account the effect of terrain slope and drainage area. This study aimed to first investigate the effect of slope on CN and then slope-adjusted runoff potential map is generated for Kuantan River Basin, Malaysia. The Hanng method was used to adjust CN values provided in National Handbook of Engineering and The Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) version 2 is used to derive slope map with the spatial resolution of 30 m for Kuantan River Basin (KRB). The study significantly enhanced the application of GIS tools and recent advances in earth observation technology to analyze the hydrological process.

Keywords: Kuantan, ASTER-GDEM, SCS-CN, runoff

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Authors: Xiaobo Liu, Rakesh Mishra, Yun Zhang

Abstract:

Continuous monitoring of forest canopy height with large coverage is essential for obtaining forest carbon stocks and emissions, quantifying biomass estimation, analyzing vegetation coverage, and determining biodiversity. LiDAR can be used to collect accurate woody vegetation structure such as canopy height. However, LiDAR’s coverage is usually limited because of its high cost and limited maneuverability, which constrains its use for dynamic and large area forest canopy monitoring. On the other hand, optical satellite images, like Sentinel-2, have the ability to cover large forest areas with a high repeat rate, but they do not have height information. Hence, exploring the solution of integrating LiDAR data and Sentinel-2 images to enlarge the coverage of forest canopy height prediction and increase the prediction repeat rate has been an active research topic in the environmental remote sensing community. In this study, we explore the potential of training a Random Forest Regression (RFR) model and a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) model, respectively, to develop two predictive models for predicting and validating the forest canopy height of the Acadia Forest in New Brunswick, Canada, with a 10m ground sampling distance (GSD), for the year 2018 and 2021. Two 10m airborne LiDAR-derived canopy height models, one for 2018 and one for 2021, are used as ground truth to train and validate the RFR and CNN predictive models. To evaluate the prediction performance of the trained RFR and CNN models, two new predicted canopy height maps (CHMs), one for 2018 and one for 2021, are generated using the trained RFR and CNN models and 10m Sentinel-2 images of 2018 and 2021, respectively. The two 10m predicted CHMs from Sentinel-2 images are then compared with the two 10m airborne LiDAR-derived canopy height models for accuracy assessment. The validation results show that the mean absolute error (MAE) for year 2018 of the RFR model is 2.93m, CNN model is 1.71m; while the MAE for year 2021 of the RFR model is 3.35m, and the CNN model is 3.78m. These demonstrate the feasibility of using the RFR and CNN models developed in this research for predicting large-coverage forest canopy height at 10m spatial resolution and a high revisit rate.

Keywords: remote sensing, forest canopy height, LiDAR, Sentinel-2, artificial intelligence, random forest regression, convolutional neural network

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Authors: Yan Cheng, Yijun Shao, James Rudolph, Charlene R. Weir, Beth Sahlmann, Qing Zeng-Treitler

Abstract:

Supervised predictive models require labeled data for training purposes. Complete and accurate labeled data, i.e., a ‘gold standard’, is not always available, and imperfectly labeled data may need to serve as an alternative. An important question is if the accuracy of the labeled data creates a performance ceiling for the trained model. In this study, we trained several models to recognize the presence of delirium in clinical documents using data with annotations that are not completely accurate (i.e., weakly-supervised learning). In the external evaluation, the support vector machine model with a linear kernel performed best, achieving an area under the curve of 89.3% and accuracy of 88%, surpassing the 80% accuracy of the training sample. We then generated a set of simulated data and carried out a series of experiments which demonstrated that models trained on imperfect data can (but do not always) outperform the accuracy of the training data, e.g., the area under the curve for some models is higher than 80% when trained on the data with an error rate of 40%. Our experiments also showed that the error resistance of linear modeling is associated with larger sample size, error type, and linearity of the data (all p-values < 0.001). In conclusion, this study sheds light on the usefulness of imperfect data in clinical research via weakly-supervised learning.

Keywords: weakly-supervised learning, support vector machine, prediction, delirium, simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 175