Search results for: accelerated failure time model

Authors: Anukriti Kumar, Tanmay Singh, Dinesh Kumar Vishwakarma

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Traffic control has been one of the most common and irritating problems since the time automobiles have hit the roads. Problems like traffic congestion have led to a significant time burden around the world and one significant solution to these problems can be the proper implementation of the Intelligent Transport System (ITS). It involves the integration of various tools like smart sensors, artificial intelligence, position technologies and mobile data services to manage traffic flow, reduce congestion and enhance driver's ability to avoid accidents during adverse weather. Road and traffic signs’ recognition is an emerging field of research in ITS. Classification problem of traffic signs needs to be solved as it is a major step in our journey towards building semi-autonomous/autonomous driving systems. The purpose of this work focuses on implementing an approach to solve the problem of traffic sign classification by developing a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) classifier using the GTSRB (German Traffic Sign Recognition Benchmark) dataset. Rather than using hand-crafted features, our model addresses the concern of exploding huge parameters and data method augmentations. Our model achieved an accuracy of around 97.6% which is comparable to various state-of-the-art architectures.

Keywords: multiclass classification, convolution neural network, OpenCV

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Authors: Sonia Ben Hamza, Sabra Habli, Nejla Mahjoub Said, Hervé Bournot, Georges Le Palec

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The distribution characteristics of pollutants released at different vertical inlet positions of an open channel are investigated with a three-dimensional numerical model. Pollutants are injected from time-dependent sources in a turbulent free surface flow. Numerical computations were carried out using ANSYS Fluent which is based on the finite volume approach. The air/water interface was modeled with the volume of the fluid method (VOF). By focusing on investigating the influences of flow on pollutants, it is found that pollutant released from the bottom position of the channel takes more time to disperse in the longitudinal direction of the flow in comparison with the case of pollutant released near the free surface. On the other hand, the pollutant released from the bottom position generates a vertical dispersion with decreased amplitude. These findings may assist in cost-effective scientific countermeasures to be taken for accident or planned pollutant discharged into a river.

Keywords: numerical simulation, pollutant release, turbulent free surface flow, VOF model

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Authors: Rodrigo T. Sepulveda-Hirose, Ana B. Carrera-Aguilar, Francisco Andree Ramirez-Casas, Alondra Orozco-Gomez, Miguel Angel Sanchez-Caro, Carlos Herrera-Ventosa

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High concentrations of particulate matter in the atmosphere pose a threat to human health, especially over areas with high concentrations of population; however, field air pollution monitoring is expensive and time-consuming. In order to achieve reduced costs and global coverage of the whole urban area, remote sensing can be used. This study evaluates PM2.5 concentrations, over the Mexico City´s metropolitan area, are estimated using atmospheric reflectance from LANDSAT 8, satellite imagery and historical PM2.5 measurements of the Automatic Environmental Monitoring Network of Mexico City (RAMA). Through the processing of the available satellite images, a preliminary model was generated to evaluate the optimal bands for the generation of the final model for Mexico City. Work on the final model continues with the results of the preliminary model. It was found that infrared bands have helped to model in other cities, but the effectiveness that these bands could provide for the geographic and climatic conditions of Mexico City is still being evaluated.

Keywords: air pollution modeling, Landsat 8, PM2.5, remote sensing

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Authors: Pierluigi Gallo, Francesco Randazzo, Ignazio Gallo

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In recent years, many new and interesting models of successful online business have been developed. Many of these are based on the competition between users, such as online auctions, where the product price is not fixed and tends to rise. Other models, including group-buying, are based on cooperation between users, characterized by a dynamic price of the product that tends to go down. There is not yet a business model in which both sellers and buyers are grouped in order to negotiate on a specific product or service. The present study investigates a new extension of the group-buying model, called fair, which allows aggregation of demand and supply for price optimization, in a cooperative manner. Additionally, our system also aggregates products and destinations for shipping optimization. We introduced the following new relevant input parameters in order to implement a double-side aggregation: (a) price-quantity curves provided by the seller; (b) waiting time, that is, the longer buyers wait, the greater discount they get; (c) payment time, which determines if the buyer pays before, during or after receiving the product; (d) the distance between the place where products are available and the place of shipment, provided in advance by the buyer or dynamically suggested by the system. To analyze the proposed model we implemented a system prototype and a simulator that allows studying effects of changing some input parameters. We analyzed the dynamic price model in fairs having one single seller and a combination of selected sellers. The results are very encouraging and motivate further investigation on this topic.

Keywords: auction, aggregation, fair, group buying, social buying

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Authors: Bhavna Malik

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The study is build on a theoretical framework that links characteristics of job, key attitudes and intention to leave, why faculty may be disengaging from institutional service. The literature indicates that job characteristics, key attitudes and intention to leave are very important for effective organizational functioning. In general, the literature showed that some job characteristics might be the antecedents of job satisfaction and the aggregate variable job scope was positively associated with organizational commitment, and these key attitudes predicted intention to leave negatively. The present study attempted to propose a new integrative model of the relationships among job characteristics, key attitudes, and intention to leave. The main purpose of the present study is to examine the effects of job characteristics on intention to leave. While examining the role of job characteristics, the mediating roles of key attitudes were taken into account in order to better understand how job characteristics affect the exhibition of intention to leave. The secondary purpose is to investigate the effects of job characteristics on key attitudes, and the effects of key attitudes on intention to leave. Job characteristics of remuneration, resource for professional activities, career opportunities were positively associated with the work attitude of job satisfaction. The aggregate job scope was positively associated with the work attitude of organizational commitment although no single job characteristic was significantly associated with organizational commitment. Commitment, however, did not significantly affect time spent on institutional service. Two job characteristics—time spent on research and time spent on teaching—were negatively associated with this behavior. In general, the literature showed that some job characteristics might be the antecedents of job satisfaction and the aggregate variable job scope was positively associated with organizational commitment, and these key attiudes predicted intention to leave negatively. In turn, job satisfaction and organizational commitment were negatively associated with the intention to leave. In addition to these, organizational commitment was negatively associated with the intention to leave. However, no significant direct association was found between job characteristics and intention to leave.

Keywords: Job Characteristics Model, job satisfaction, organizational commitment, intention to leave

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Authors: Golaleh Ghaffari

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A basin sediment yield refers to the amount of sediment exported by a basin over a period of time, which will enter a reservoir located at the downstream limit of the basin. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT, 2008) was used to hydrology and sediment transport modeling at daily and monthly time steps within the Gheshlagh dam basin in north-west of Iran. The SWAT model and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques were applied to evaluate basin hydrology and sediment yield using historical flow and sediment data and to identify and prioritize critical sub-basins based on sediment transport. The results of this study indicated that simulated daily discharge and sediment values matched the observed values satisfactorily. The model predicted that mean annual basin precipitation for the total study period (413 mm) was partitioned in to evapotranspiration (36%), percolation/groundwater recharge (21%) and stream water (25%), yielding 18% surface runoff. Potential source areas of erosion were also identified with the model. The range of the annual contributing erosive zones varied spatially from 0.1 to 103 t/ha according to the slope and land use at the basin scale. Also the fifteen sub basins create the 60% of the total sediment yield between the all (102) sub basins. The results of the study indicated that SWAT can be a useful tool for assessing hydrology and sediment yield response of the watersheds in the region.

Keywords: erosion, Gheshlagh dam, sediment yield, SWAT

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Authors: Jong Yeop Kim, In Kyong Yi, Hyun Jeong Kwak, Sook Young Lee, Sung Yong Park

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Background: Several video laryngoscopes (VLs) were used to facilitate tracheal intubation in the normal and potentially difficult airway, especially by novice personnel. The aim of this study was to compare tracheal intubation performance regarding the time to intubation, glottic view, difficulty, and dental click, by a novice using McGrath VL, Pentax Airway Scope (AWS) and Macintosh laryngoscope in normal and cervical immobilized manikin models. Methods: Thirty-five anesthesia nurses without previous intubation experience were recruited. The participants performed endotracheal intubation in a manikin model at two simulated neck positions (normal and fixed neck via cervical immobilization), using three different devices (McGrath VL, Pentax AWS, and Macintosh direct laryngoscope) at three times each. Performance parameters included intubation time, success rate of intubation, Cormack Lehane laryngoscope grading, dental click, and subjective difficulty score. Results: Intubation time and success rate at the first attempt were not significantly different between the 3 groups in normal airway manikin. In the cervical immobilized manikin, the intubation time was shorter (p = 0.012) and the success rate with the first attempt was significantly higher (p < 0.001) when using McGrath VL and Pentax AWS compared with Macintosh laryngoscope. Both VLs showed less difficulty score (p < 0.001) and more Cormack Lehane grade I (p < 0.001). The incidence of dental clicks was higher with McGrath VL than Macintosh laryngoscope in the normal and cervical immobilized airway (p = 0.005, p < 0.001, respectively). Conclusion: McGrath VL and Pentax AWS resulted in shorter intubation time, higher first attempt success rate, compared with Macintosh laryngoscope by a novice intubator in a cervical immobilized manikin model. McGrath VL could be reduced the risk of dental injury compared with Macintosh laryngoscope in this scenario.

Keywords: intubation, manikin, novice, videolaryngoscope

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Authors: Galih Permana, Yuskar Lase

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In recent years, damping device has been experimentally studied to replace diagonally reinforced coupling beams, to mitigate rebar congestion problem. This study focuses on evaluating the effectiveness of various damping devices in a high-rise building. The type of damping devices evaluated is Viscoelastic Damper (VCD) and Rotational Friction Damper (RFD), with study case of a 15-story reinforced concrete apartment building with a dual system (column-beam and shear walls). The analysis used is a nonlinear time history analysis with 11 pairs of ground motions matched to the Indonesian response spectrum based on ASCE 41-17 and ASCE 7-16. In this analysis, each damper will be varied with a different position, namely the first model, the damper will be installed on the entire floor and in the second model, the damper will be installed on the 5th floor to the 9th floor, which is the floor with the largest drift. The results show that the model using both dampers increases the level of structural performance both globally and locally in the building, which will reduce the level of damage to the structural elements. But between the two dampers, the coupling beam that uses RFD is more effective than using VCD in improving building performance. The damper on the coupling beam has a good role in dissipating earthquakes and also in terms of ease of installation.

Keywords: building, coupling beam, damper, nonlinear time history analysis

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Authors: Luvuno N. Jele, Warwick W. Hastie, Andrew Green

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Calcarenite is a clastic sedimentary beach rock composed of more than 50% sand sized (0.0625 – 2 mm) carbonate grains. In South Africa, these rocks occur as a narrow belt along most of the coast of KwaZulu-Natal and sporadically along the coast of the Eastern Cape. Calcarenites contain a high percentage of calcium carbonate, and due to a number of its physical and structural features, like porosity, cementing material, sedimentary structures, grain shape, and grain size; they are more prone to chemical and mechanical weathering. The objective of the research is to study the strength and compressibility characteristics of the calcarenites along the coast of KwaZulu-Natal to be able to better understand the geotechnical behaviour of these rocks, which may help to predict areas along the coast which may be potentially susceptible to failure/differential settling resulting in damage to property. A total of 148 cores were prepared and analyzed. Cores were analyzed perpendicular and parallel to bedding. Tests were carried out in accordance with the relevant codes and recommendations of the International Society for Rock Mechanics, American Standard Testing Methods, and Committee of Land and Transport Standard Specifications for Road and Bridge Works for State Road Authorities. Test carried out included: x-ray diffraction, petrography, shape preferred orientation (SPO), 3-D Tomography, rock porosity, rock permeability, ethylene glycol, slake durability, rock water absorption, Duncan swelling index, triaxial compressive strength, Brazilian tensile strength and uniaxial compression test with elastic modulus. The beach-rocks have a uniaxial compressive strength (UCS) ranging from 17,84Mpa to 287,35Mpa and exhibit three types of failure; (1) single sliding shear failure, (2) complete cone development, and (3) splitting failure. Brazilian tensile strength of the rocks ranges from 2.56 Mpa to 12,40 Ma, with those tested perpendicular to bedding showing lower tensile strength. Triaxial compressive tests indicate calcarenites have strength ranging from 86,10 Mpa to 371,85 Mpa. Common failure mode in the triaxial test is a single sliding shear failure. Porosity of the rocks varies from 1.25 % to 26.52 %. Rock tests indicate that the direction of loading, whether it be parallel to bedding or perpendicular to bedding, plays no significantrole in the strength and durability of the calcarenites. Porosity, cement type, and grain texture play major roles.UCS results indicate that saturated cores are weaker in strength compared to dry samples. Thus, water or moisture content plays a significant role in the strength and durability of the beach-rock. Loosely packed, highly porous and low magnesian-calcite bearing calcarenites show a decrease in strength compared to the densely packed, low porosity and high magnesian-calcite bearing calcarenites.

Keywords: beach-rock, calcarenite, cement, compressive, failure, porosity, strength, tensile, grains

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Authors: Ammar Alsabery, Habibis Saleh, Norazam Arbin, Ishak Hashim

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Unsteady natural convection and heat transfer in a square cavity partially filled with porous media using a thermal non-equilibrium model is studied in this paper. The left vertical wall is maintained at a constant hot temperature and the right vertical wall is maintained at a constant cold temperature, while the horizontal walls are adiabatic. The governing equations are obtained by applying the Darcy model and Boussinesq approximation. COMSOL's finite element method is used to solve the non-dimensional governing equations together with specified boundary conditions. The governing parameters of this study are the Rayleigh number, the modified thermal conductivity ratio, the inter-phase heat transfer coefficien and the time independent. The results presented for values of the governing parameters in terms of streamlines in both fluid/porous layer, isotherms of fluid and solid porous layer, isotherms of fluid layer, and average Nusselt number.

Keywords: unsteady natural convection, thermal non-equilibrium model, Darcy model

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Authors: Tatiana G. Smirnova, Stan G. Benjamin

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Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) land surface model (LSM) was a land-surface component in several generations of operational weather prediction models at the National Center for Environment Prediction (NCEP) at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). It was designed for short-range weather predictions with an emphasis on severe weather and originally was intentionally simple to avoid uncertainties from poorly known parameters. Nevertheless, the RUC LSM, when coupled with the hourly-assimilating atmospheric model, can produce a realistic evolution of time-varying soil moisture and temperature, as well as the evolution of snow cover on the ground surface. This result is possible only if the soil/vegetation/snow component of the coupled weather prediction model has sufficient skill to avoid long-term drift. RUC LSM was first implemented in the operational NCEP Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) weather model in 1998 and later in the Weather Research Forecasting Model (WRF)-based Rapid Refresh (RAP) and High-resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR). Being available to the international WRF community, it was implemented in operational weather models in Austria, New Zealand, and Switzerland. Based on the feedback from the US weather service offices and the international WRF community and also based on our own validation, RUC LSM has matured over the years. Also, a sea-ice module was added to RUC LSM for surface predictions over the Arctic sea-ice. Other modifications include refinements to the snow model and a more accurate specification of albedo, roughness length, and other surface properties. At present, RUC LSM is being tested in the regional application of the Unified Forecast System (UFS). The next generation UFS-based regional Rapid Refresh FV3 Standalone (RRFS) model will replace operational RAP and HRRR at NCEP. Over time, RUC LSM participated in several international model intercomparison projects to verify its skill using observed atmospheric forcing. The ESM-SnowMIP was the last of these experiments focused on the verification of snow models for open and forested regions. The simulations were performed for ten sites located in different climatic zones of the world forced with observed atmospheric conditions. While most of the 26 participating models have more sophisticated snow parameterizations than in RUC, RUC LSM got a high ranking in simulations of both snow water equivalent and surface temperature. However, ESM-SnowMIP experiment also revealed some issues in the RUC snow model, which will be addressed in this paper. One of them is the treatment of grid cells partially covered with snow. RUC snow module computes energy and moisture budgets of snow-covered and snow-free areas separately by aggregating the solutions at the end of each time step. Such treatment elevates the importance of computing in the model snow cover fraction. Improvements to the original simplistic threshold-based approach have been implemented and tested both offline and in the coupled weather model. The detailed description of changes to the snow cover fraction and other modifications to RUC soil and snow parameterizations will be described in this paper.

Keywords: land-surface models, weather prediction, hydrology, boundary-layer processes

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Authors: Herath M. P. C. Jayaweera, Samer Hanoun

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Path planning for on-time obstacle avoidance is an essential and challenging task that enables drones to achieve safe operation in any application domain. The level of challenge increases significantly on the obstacle avoidance technique when the drone is following a ground mobile entity (GME). This is mainly due to the change in direction and magnitude of the GME′s velocity in dynamic and unstructured environments. Force field techniques are the most widely used obstacle avoidance methods due to their simplicity, ease of use, and potential to be adopted for three-dimensional dynamic environments. However, the existing force field obstacle avoidance techniques suffer many drawbacks, including their tendency to generate longer routes when the obstacles are sideways of the drone′s route, poor ability to find the shortest flyable path, propensity to fall into local minima, producing a non-smooth path, and high failure rate in the presence of symmetrical obstacles. To overcome these shortcomings, this paper proposes an on-time three-dimensional obstacle avoidance method for drones to effectively and efficiently avoid dynamic and static obstacles in unknown environments while pursuing a GME. This on-time obstacle avoidance technique generates velocity waypoints for its obstacle-free and efficient path based on the shape of the encountered obstacles. This method can be utilized on most types of drones that have basic distance measurement sensors and autopilot-supported flight controllers. The proposed obstacle avoidance technique is validated and evaluated against existing force field methods for different simulation scenarios in Gazebo and ROS-supported PX4-SITL. The simulation results show that the proposed obstacle avoidance technique outperforms the existing force field techniques and is better suited for real-world applications.

Keywords: drones, force field methods, obstacle avoidance, path planning

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Authors: Kathia Melbouci, Sylvie Naudet Collette, Vincent Gay-Bellile, Omar Ait-Aider, Michel Dhome

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In this paper, we handle the problem of real time localization and mapping in indoor environment assisted by a partial prior 3D model, using an RGBD sensor. The proposed solution relies on a feature-based RGBD SLAM algorithm to localize the camera and update the 3D map of the scene. To improve the accuracy and the robustness of the localization, we propose to combine in a local bundle adjustment process, geometric information provided by a prior coarse 3D model of the scene (e.g. generated from the 2D floor plan of the building) along with RGBD data from a Kinect camera. The proposed approach is evaluated on a public benchmark dataset as well as on real scene acquired by a Kinect sensor.

Keywords: SLAM, global localization, 3D sensor, bundle adjustment, 3D model

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Authors: Moustafa Osman Mohammed

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This paper is mapping air quality model to engineering the industrial system that ultimately utilized in extensive range of energy systems, distribution resources, and end-user technologies. The model is determining long-range transport patterns contribution as area source can either traced from 48 hrs backward trajectory model or remotely described from background measurements data in those days. The trajectory model will be run within stable conditions and quite constant parameters of the atmospheric pressure at the most time of the year. Air parcel trajectory is necessary for estimating the long-range transport of pollutants and other chemical species. It provides a better understanding of airflow patterns. Since a large amount of meteorological data and a great number of calculations are required to drive trajectory, it will be very useful to apply HYPSLIT model to locate areas and boundaries influence air quality at regional location of Windsor. 2–days backward trajectories model at high and low concentration measurements below and upward the benchmark which was areas influence air quality measurement levels. The benchmark level will be considered as 30 (μg/m3) as the moderate level for Ontario region. Thereby, air quality model is incorporating a midpoint concept between biotic and abiotic components to broaden the scope of quantification impact. The later outcomes’ theories of environmental obligation suggest either a recommendation or a decision of what is a legislative should be achieved in mitigation measures of air emission impact ultimately.

Keywords: air quality, management systems, environmental impact assessment, industrial ecology, climate change

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Authors: Mohamed El Hachimi, Abdelhakim Ballouk, Ilyas Khelafa, Abdelaziz Mouhou

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Introduction: Type 1 diabetes occurs when beta cells are destroyed by the body's own immune system. Treatment of type 1 diabetes mellitus could be greatly improved by applying a closed-loop control strategy to insulin delivery, also known as an Artificial Pancreas (AP). Method: In this paper, we present a new formulation of the cost function for a Model Predictive Control (MPC) utilizing a technic which accelerates the speed of control of the AP and tackles the nonlinearity of the control problem via asymmetric objective functions. Finding: The finding of this work consists in a new Model Predictive Control algorithm that leads to good performances like decreasing the time of hyperglycaemia and avoiding hypoglycaemia. Conclusion: These performances are validated under in silico trials.

Keywords: artificial pancreas, control algorithm, biomedical control, MPC, objective function, nonlinearity

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Authors: Alex Fedoseyev

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This study investigates a generalized hydrodynamic equation (GHE) simplified model for the simulation of turbulent flow over a two-dimensional backward-facing step (BFS) at Reynolds number Re=132000. The GHE were derived from the generalized Boltzmann equation (GBE). GBE was obtained by first principles from the chain of Bogolubov kinetic equations and considers particles of finite dimensions. The GHE has additional terms, temporal and spatial fluctuations, compared to the Navier-Stokes equations (NSE). These terms have a timescale multiplier τ, and the GHE becomes the NSE when $\tau$ is zero. The nondimensional τ is a product of the Reynolds number and the squared length scale ratio, τ=Re*(l/L)², where l is the apparent Kolmogorov length scale, and L is a hydrodynamic length scale. The BFS flow modeling results obtained by 2D calculations cannot match the experimental data for Re>450. One or two additional equations are required for the turbulence model to be added to the NSE, which typically has two to five parameters to be tuned for specific problems. It is shown that the GHE does not require an additional turbulence model, whereas the turbulent velocity results are in good agreement with the experimental results. A review of several studies on the simulation of flow over the BFS from 1980 to 2023 is provided. Most of these studies used different turbulence models when Re>1000. In this study, the 2D turbulent flow over a BFS with height H=L/3 (where L is the channel height) at Reynolds number Re=132000 was investigated using numerical solutions of the GHE (by a finite-element method) and compared to the solutions from the Navier-Stokes equations, k–ε turbulence model, and experimental results. The comparison included the velocity profiles at X/L=5.33 (near the end of the recirculation zone, available from the experiment), recirculation zone length, and velocity flow field. The mean velocity of NSE was obtained by averaging the solution over the number of time steps. The solution with a standard k −ε model shows a velocity profile at X/L=5.33, which has no backward flow. A standard k−ε model underpredicts the experimental recirculation zone length X/L=7.0∓0.5 by a substantial amount of 20-25%, and a more sophisticated turbulence model is needed for this problem. The obtained data confirm that the GHE results are in good agreement with the experimental results for turbulent flow over two-dimensional BFS. A turbulence model was not required in this case. The computations were stable. The solution time for the GHE is the same or less than that for the NSE and significantly less than that for the NSE with the turbulence model. The proposed approach was limited to 2D and only one Reynolds number. Further work will extend this approach to 3D flow and a higher Re.

Keywords: backward-facing step, comparison with experimental data, generalized hydrodynamic equations, separation, reattachment, turbulent flow

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Authors: Mohammad Ahmad, Sander Gersen, Erwin Wilbers

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Carbon capture, transport and underground storage have become a major solution to reduce CO2 emissions from power plants and other large CO2 sources. A big part of this captured CO2 stream is transported at high pressure dense phase conditions and stored in offshore underground depleted oil and gas fields. CO2 is also transported in offshore pipelines to be used for enhanced oil and gas recovery. The captured CO2 stream with impurities may contain water that causes severe corrosion problems, flow assurance failure and might damage valves and instrumentations. Thus, free water formation should be strictly prevented. The purpose of this work is to study the solubility of water in pure CO2 and in CO2 mixtures under real pipeline pressure (90-150 bar) and temperature operation conditions (5-35°C). A set up was constructed to generate experimental data. The results show the solubility of water in CO2 mixtures increasing with the increase of the temperature or/and with the increase in pressure. A drop in water solubility in CO2 is observed in the presence of impurities. The data generated were then used to assess the capabilities of two mixture models: the GERG-2008 model and the EOS-CG model. By generating the solubility data, this study contributes to determine the maximum allowable water content in CO2 pipelines.

Keywords: carbon capture and storage, water solubility, equation of states, fluids engineering

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Authors: Eda Orhun

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Purpose: This paper analyzes a target firm’s decision to voluntarily disclose information during a takeover event and the effect of such disclosures on the outcome of the takeover. Such voluntary disclosures especially in the form of earnings forecasts made around takeover events may affect shareholders’ decisions about the target firm’s value and in return takeover result. This study aims to shed light on this question. Design/methodology/approach: The paper tries to understand the role of voluntary disclosures by target firms during a takeover event in the likelihood of takeover success both theoretically and empirically. A game-theoretical model is set up to analyze the voluntary disclosure decision of a target firm to inform the shareholders about its real worth. The empirical implication of model is tested by employing binary outcome models where the disclosure variable is obtained by identifying the target firms in the sample that provide positive news by issuing increasing management earnings forecasts. Findings: The model predicts that a voluntary disclosure of positive information by the target decreases the likelihood that the takeover succeeds. The empirical analysis confirms this prediction by showing that positive earnings forecasts by target firms during takeover events increase the probability of takeover failure. Overall, it is shown that information dissemination through voluntary disclosures by target firms is an important factor affecting takeover outcomes. Originality/Value: This study is the first to the author's knowledge that studies the impact of voluntary disclosures by the target firm during a takeover event on the likelihood of takeover success. The results contribute to information economics, corporate finance and M&As literatures.

Keywords: takeovers, target firm, voluntary disclosures, earnings forecasts, takeover success

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Authors: Z. Jovanovic, Z. Masonicic, S. Dragutinovic, Z. Sakota

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In this paper, a methodology for noise reduction of motor vehicles in use is presented. The methodology relies on synergic model of noise generation as a function of time. The arbitrary number of motor vehicle noise sources act in concert yielding the generation of the overall noise level of motor vehicle thereafter. The number of noise sources participating in the overall noise level of motor vehicle is subjected to the constraint of the calculation of the acoustic potential of each noise source under consideration. It is the prerequisite condition for the calculation of the acoustic potential of the whole vehicle. The recast form of pertinent set of equations describing the synergic model is laid down and solved by dint of Gauss method. The bunch of results emerged and some of them i.e. those ensuing from model application to MDD FAP Priboj motor vehicle in use are particularly elucidated.

Keywords: noise abatement, MV noise sources, noise source identification, muffler

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Authors: Mesbaholdin Salami, Farzad Movahedi Sobhani, Mohammad Sadegh Ghazizadeh

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Evaluation of organizational performance is among the most important measures that help organizations and entities continuously improve their efficiency. Organizations can use the existing data and results from the comparison of units under investigation to obtain an estimation of their performance. The Malmquist Productivity Index (MPI) is an important index in the evaluation of overall productivity, which considers technological developments and technical efficiency at the same time. This article proposed a model based on the multistage MPI, considering limited data (Grey’s theory). This model can evaluate the performance of units using limited and uncertain data in a multistage process. It was applied by the electricity market manager to Iran’s electric power supply chain (EPSC), which contains uncertain data, to evaluate the performance of its actors. Results from solving the model showed an improvement in the accuracy of future performance of the units under investigation, using the Grey’s system theory. This model can be used in all case studies, in which MPI is used and there are limited or uncertain data.

Keywords: Malmquist Index, Grey's Theory, CCR Model, network data envelopment analysis, Iran electricity power chain

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Authors: Mehdi Montakhabrazlighi, Ercan Balikci

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The neural network (NN) method is applied to alloy development of single crystal Ni-base Superalloys with low density and improved mechanical strength. A set of 1200 dataset which includes chemical composition of the alloys, applied stress and temperature as inputs and density and time to rupture as outputs is used for training and testing the network. Thermodynamic phase diagram modeling of the screened alloys is performed with Thermocalc software to model the equilibrium phases and also microsegregation in solidification processing. The model is first trained by 80% of the data and the 20% rest is used to test it. Comparing the predicted values and the experimental ones showed that a well-trained network is capable of accurately predicting the density and time to rupture strength of the Ni-base superalloys. Modeling results is used to determine the effect of alloying elements, stress, temperature and gamma-prime phase volume fraction on rupture strength of the Ni-base superalloys. This approach is in line with the materials genome initiative and integrated computed materials engineering approaches promoted recently with the aim of reducing the cost and time for development of new alloys for critical aerospace components. This work has been funded by TUBITAK under grant number 112M783.

Keywords: neural network, rupture strength, superalloy, thermocalc

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Authors: D. Thawinkarn, S. Wongbutlee

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The Social Change Leadership model is strongly aligned with administration’s mission. This research aims to examine the elements of social change leadership, build and develop leadership for social change, and evaluate effectiveness of leadership development model for social change. The research operation has 3 phases: model studies by in-depth interviews and survey research; drafting and creating model which verified by the experts; and trial of model in schools. The results showed that administrators and teachers have the elements of leadership for social change in moderate level. These elements are ranged descending from consciousness of self, common purpose, congruence, collaboration, commitment, citizenship, and controversy with civility. Model of leadership for social change is included the principles, objectives, content, process. Workshop process: Results show that the model of leadership development for social change in administrators and teachers leads to higher score in leadership evaluation prior to administering the operation.

Keywords: leadership, social change model, organization, administrators

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Authors: Reza Miresmaeili, Asghar Heydari Astaraee, Fereshteh Dolati

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In the present study, an analytical model based on dislocation density model was developed to simulate grain refinement in surface mechanical attrition treatment (SMAT). The correlation between SMAT time and development in plastic strain on one hand, and dislocation density evolution, on the other hand, was established to simulate the grain refinement in SMAT. A dislocation density-based constitutive material law was implemented using VUHARD subroutine. A random sequence of shots is taken into consideration for multiple impacts model using Python programming language by utilizing a random function. The simulation technique was to model each impact in a separate run and then transferring the results of each run as initial conditions for the next run (impact). The developed Finite Element (FE) model of multiple impacts describes the coverage evolution in SMAT. Simulations were run to coverage levels as high as 4500%. It is shown that the coverage implemented in the FE model is equal to the experimental coverage. It is depicted that numerical SMAT coverage parameter is adequately conforming to the well-known Avrami model. Comparison between numerical results and experimental measurements for residual stresses and depth of deformation layers confirms the performance of the established FE model for surface engineering evaluations in SMA treatment. X-ray diffraction (XRD) studies of grain refinement, including resultant grain size and dislocation density, were conducted to validate the established model. The full width at half-maximum in XRD profiles can be used to measure the grain size. Numerical results and experimental measurements of grain refinement illustrate good agreement and show the capability of established FE model to predict the gradient microstructure in SMA treatment.

Keywords: dislocation density, grain refinement, severe plastic deformation, simulation, surface mechanical attrition treatment

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Authors: O. D. Arbeláez-Echeverri, E. Restrepo-Parra, J. C. Riano-Rojas

Abstract:

A two dimensional geometric model of Bit Patterned Media is proposed, the model is based on the crystal structure of the materials commonly used to produce the nano islands in bit patterned materials and the possible defects that may arise from the interaction between the nano islands and the matrix material. The dynamic magnetic properties of the material are then computed using time aware integration methods for the multi spin Hamiltonian. The Hamiltonian takes into account both the spatial and topological disorder of the sample as well as the high perpendicular anisotropy that is pursued when building bit patterned media. The main finding of the research was the possibility of replicating the results of previous experiments on similar materials and the ability of computing the switching field distribution given the geometry of the material and the parameters required by the model.

Keywords: nanostructures, Monte Carlo, pattern media, magnetic properties

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Authors: Renata Konadu

Abstract:

In Ghana, electricity has become the main form of energy which all sectors of the economy rely on for their businesses. Therefore, as the economy grows, the demand and consumption of electricity also grow alongside due to the heavy dependence on it. However, since the supply of electricity has not increased to match the demand, there has been frequent power outages and load shedding affecting business performances. To solve this problem and advance policies to secure electricity in Ghana, it is imperative that those factors that cause consumption to increase be analysed by considering the three classes of consumers; residential, industrial and non-residential. The main argument, however, is that, export of electricity to other neighbouring countries should be included in the electricity consumption model and considered as one of the significant factors which can decrease or increase consumption. The author made use of multivariate time series data from 1980-2010 and econometric models such as Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Vector Error Correction Model. Findings show that GDP growth, urban population growth, electricity exports and industry value added to GDP were cointegrated. The results also showed that there is unidirectional causality from electricity export and GDP growth and Industry value added to GDP to electricity consumption in the long run. However, in the short run, there was found to be a directional causality among all the variables and electricity consumption. The results have useful implication for energy policy makers especially with regards to electricity consumption, demand, and supply.

Keywords: electricity consumption, energy policy, GDP growth, vector error correction model

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Authors: Theddeus Tochukwu Akano, Omotayo Abayomi Fakinlede

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Proper understanding of the behavior of compliant mechanisms use by athletes is important in order to avoid catastrophic failure. Such compliant mechanisms like the flex-run require the knowledge of their dynamic response and deformation behavior under quickly varying loads. The modeling of finite deformations of the compliant athletic system is described by Neo-Hookean model under contact-impact conditions. The dynamic impact-contact governing equations for both the target and impactor are derived based on the updated Lagrangian approach. A method where contactor and target are considered as a united body is applied in the formulation of the principle of virtual work for the bodies. In this paper, methods of continuum mechanics and nonlinear finite element method were deployed to develop a model that could capture the behavior of the compliant athletic system under quickly varying loads. A hybrid system of symbolic algebra (AceGEN) and a compiled back end (AceFEM) were employed, leveraging both ease of use and computational efficiency. The simulated results reveal the effect of the various contact-impact conditions on the deformation behavior of the impacting compliant mechanism.

Keywords: eigenvalue problems, finite element method, robin boundary condition, sturm-liouville problem

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Authors: Liang Zhang, Gang Xu, Yue Wang, Chen Li, Shao Chong Zhou

Abstract:

Presently, more and more nuclear power plants are facing the issue of life extension. When a nuclear power plant applies for an extension of life, its condition needs to meet the current design standards, which is not fine for all old reactors, typically for seismic design. Seismic-grade equipment in nuclear power plants are now generally placed separately from the non-seismic-grade equipment, but it was not strictly required before. Therefore, it is very important to study whether non-seismic-grade equipment will affect the seismic-grade equipment when dropped down in an earthquake situation, which is related to the safety of nuclear power plants and future life extension applications. This research was based on the cooling water system with the seismic and non-seismic grade equipment installed together, as an example to study whether the non-seismic-grade equipment such as DN50 fire pipes and ventilation pipes arranged above will damage the DN300 pipes and valves arranged below when earthquakes occur. In the study, the simulation was carried out by ANSYS / LY-DYNA, and Johnson-Cook was used as the material model and failure model. For the experiments, the relative positions of objects in the room were restored by 1: 1. In the experiment, the pipes and valves were filled with water with a pressure of 0.785 MPa. The pressure-holding performance of the pipe was used as a criterion for damage. In addition to the pressure-holding performance, the opening torque was considered as well for the valves. The research results show that when the 10-meter-long DN50 pipe was dropped from the position of 8 meters height and the 8-meter-long air pipe dropped from a position of 3.6 meters height, they do not affect the integrity of DN300 pipe below. There is no failure phenomenon in the simulation as well. After the experiment, the pressure drop in two hours for the pipe is less than 0.1%. The main body of the valve does not fail either. The opening torque change after the experiment is less than 0.5%, but the handwheel of the valve may break, which affects the opening actions. In summary, impacts of the upper pipes and ventilation pipes dropdown on the integrity of the DN300 pipes and valves below in a cooling water system of a typical second-generation nuclear power plant under an earthquake was studied. As a result, the functionality of the DN300 pipeline and the valves themselves are not significantly affected, but the handwheel of the valve or similar articles can probably be broken and need to take care.

Keywords: cooling water system, earthquake, integrity, pipe and valve

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Authors: Hirofumi Miyajima, Kazuya Kishida, Noritaka Shigei, Hiromi Miyajima

Abstract:

Most of self-tuning fuzzy systems, which are automatically constructed from learning data, are based on the steepest descent method (SDM). However, this approach often requires a large convergence time and gets stuck into a shallow local minimum. One of its solutions is to use fuzzy rule modules with a small number of inputs such as DIRMs (Double-Input Rule Modules) and SIRMs (Single-Input Rule Modules). In this paper, we consider a (generalized) DIRMs model composed of double and single-input rule modules. Further, in order to reduce the redundant modules for the (generalized) DIRMs model, pruning and generative learning algorithms for the model are suggested. In order to show the effectiveness of them, numerical simulations for function approximation, Box-Jenkins and obstacle avoidance problems are performed.

Keywords: Box-Jenkins's problem, double-input rule module, fuzzy inference model, obstacle avoidance, single-input rule module

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Authors: Yutae Lee

Abstract:

This paper considers a discrete-time bulk-arrival bulkservice queueing system, where service capacity varies depending on the previous service time. By using the generating function technique and the supplementary variable method, we compute the distributions of the queue length at an arbitrary slot boundary and a departure time.

Keywords: discrete-time queue, bulk queue, variable service capacity, queue length distribution

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Authors: Nattabhorn Leamcharaskul

Abstract:

This study aims to examine determining factors of the dynamics of poverty in Thailand by using panel data of 3,567 households in 2007-2017. Four techniques of estimation are employed to analyze the situation of poverty across households and time periods: the multinomial logit model, the sequential logit model, the quantile regression model, and the difference in difference model. Households are categorized based on their experiences into 5 groups, namely chronically poor, falling into poverty, re-entering into poverty, exiting from poverty and never poor households. Estimation results emphasize the effects of demographic and socioeconomic factors as well as unexpected events on the economic status of a household. It is found that remittances have positive impact on household’s economic status in that they are likely to lower the probability of falling into poverty or trapping in poverty while they tend to increase the probability of exiting from poverty. In addition, not only receiving a secondary source of household income can raise the probability of being a never poor household, but it also significantly increases household income per capita of the chronically poor and falling into poverty households. Public work programs are recommended as an important tool to relieve household financial burden and uncertainty and thus consequently increase a chance for households to escape from poverty.

Keywords: difference in difference, dynamic, multinomial logit model, panel data, poverty, quantile regression, remittance, sequential logit model, Thailand, transfer

Procedia PDF Downloads 94