Search results for: return on investment

Authors: Ivan Poza Martínez

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The international energy landscape has been significantly affected by the Covid-19 pandemic and te conflict in Ukraine. The Vaca Muerta sedimentary formation in Argentina´s Neuquén province has become a crucial area for energy production, specifically in the shale gas ad shale oil sectors. The massive investment required for theexploitation of this reserve make it essential to understand te determinants of the investment in the upstream sector at both local ad international levels. The aim of this study is to identify the qualitative and quantitative determinants of investment in Vaca Muerta. The research methodolody employs both quantiative ( econometrics ) and qualitative approaches. A linear regression model is used to analyze the impact in non-conventional hydrocarbons. The study highlights that, in addition to quantitative factors, qualitative variables, particularly the design of a regulatory framework, significantly influence the level of the investment in Vaca Muerta. The analysis reveals the importance of attracting both domestic and foreign capital investment. This research contributes to understanding the factors influencing investment inthe Vaca Muerta regioncomapred to other published studies. It emphasizes to role of qualitative varibles, such as regulatory frameworks, in the development of the shale gas and oil sectors. The study uses a combination ofquantitative data , such a investment figures, and qualitative data, such a regulatory frameworks. The data is collected from various rpeorts and industry publications. The linear regression model is used to analyze the relationship between the variables and the investment in Vaca Muerta. The research addresses the question of what factors drive investment in the Vaca Muerta region, both from a quantitative and qualitative perspective. The study concludes that a combination of quantitative and qualitative factors, including the design of a regulatory framework, plays a significant role in attracting investment in Vaca Muerta. It highlights the importance of these determinants in the developmentof the local energy sector and the potential economic benefits for Argentina and the Southern Cone region.

Keywords: vaca muerta, FDI, shale gas, shale oil, YPF

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Authors: Barkaoui Asma

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In our article, we use the economic approach of measuring advertising effectiveness to show the margin of advertising spread gained through digital communication. For economists, profit maximization depends on determining the optimal advertising budget. For this, they use the theories of the marginalist current to determine when the maximum level of benefits is reached. Using the economic approach we show the significant return on investment for advertisers. We then discuss the risks of perception of advertising pressure by consumers.

Keywords: digital advertising, economic approach, effectiveness, pressure

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Authors: Colin O’Hare, Zili Zho, Thomas Sneddon

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The Australian superannuation system has received high praise for its participation rates and level of funding in retirement yet it is only 25 years old. In recent years, with increasing longevity and persistent lower rates of investment return, how adequate will the funds accumulated through a superannuation system be? In this paper we take Australia as a case study and build a stochastic model of accumulation and decummulation of funds and determine the expected number of years a fund may last an individual in retirement.

Keywords: component, mortality, stochastic models, superannuation

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Authors: Gupta Indu

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This paper aims to examine the relationship between foreign direct investment and globalization. Foreign direct investment plays an important role in globalization. It is dramatically increasing in the age of globalization. It has played an important role for economic growth in this global process. It can provide new markets and marketing channels, cheaper production facilities, access to new technology, products to a firm. FDI has come to play a major role in the internationalization of business. FDI has become even more important than trade. Growing liberalization of the national regulatory framework governing investment in enterprises and changes in capital markets profound changes have occurred in the size, scope and methods of FDI. New information technology systems, decline in global communication costs have made management of foreign investments far easier than in the past. FDI provide opportunities to host countries to enhance their economic development and opens new opportunities to home countries to optimize their earnings by employing their ideal resources. Smaller and weaker economies can drive out much local competition. For small and medium sized companies, FDI represents an opportunity to become more actively involved in international business activities. In the past decade, foreign direct investment has expanded its role by change in trade policy, investment policy, tariff liberalization, easing of restrictions on foreign investment and acquisition in many nations, and the deregulation and privatization of many industries. In present competitive scenario, FDI has become a prominent external source of finance for developing countries.

Keywords: foreign direct investment, globalization, economic development, information technology systems new opportunities

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Authors: Niya Chen, Jennifer Chan

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In the financial market, risk management helps to minimize potential loss and maximize profit. There are two ways to assess risks; the first way is to calculate the risk directly based on the volatility. The most common risk measurements are Value at Risk (VaR), sharp ratio, and beta. Alternatively, we could look at the quantile of the return to assess the risk. Popular return models such as GARCH and stochastic volatility (SV) focus on modeling the mean of the return distribution via capturing the volatility dynamics; however, the quantile/expectile method will give us an idea of the distribution with the extreme return value. It will allow us to forecast VaR using return which is direct information. The advantage of using these non-parametric methods is that it is not bounded by the distribution assumptions from the parametric method. But the difference between them is that expectile uses a second-order loss function while quantile regression uses a first-order loss function. We consider several quantile functions, different volatility measures, and estimates from some volatility models. To estimate the expectile of the model, we use Realized Conditional Autoregressive Expectile (CARE) model with the bayesian method to achieve this. We would like to see if our proposed models outperform existing models in cryptocurrency, and we will test it by using Bitcoin mainly as well as Ethereum.

Keywords: expectile, CARE Model, CARR Model, quantile, cryptocurrency, Value at Risk

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Authors: Claudia Munoz, Henry Laniado

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In this research, the impact of outbound and return flight schedule preferences on airline choice for international trips is quantified. Several studies have used airline choice data to identify preferences and trade-offs of different air carrier service attributes, such as travel time, fare and frequencies. However, estimation of the effect return flight schedules have on airline choice for an international round-trip flight has not yet been studied in detail. The multinomial logit model found shows that airfare, travel time, arrival preference schedule in the outward journey, departure preference in the return journey and the schedule combination of round-trip flights are significantly affecting passenger choice behavior in international round-trip flights. it results indicated that return flight schedule preference plays a substantial role in air carrier choice and has a similar effect to outbound flight schedule preference. Thus, this study provides an analytical tool designed to provide a better understanding of international round-trip flight demand determinants and support carrier decisions.

Keywords: flight schedule, airline choice, return flight, passenger choice behavior

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Authors: Kishor P. Kadam

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Foreign direct investment policy (FDI) is defined as an investment involving a long term relationship and reflecting a long duration interest and control of a resident entity in the home country (foreign direct investor or parent firm) in the host country. India has been one of the most translucent and open-minded FDI regimes among the emerging and developing economies. There is clear cut mentioned about the sectoral caps for foreign investment. The policy problems that have been identified by time to time surveys as acting as additional hurdles for FDI are laws, regulatory systems and government monopolies that do not have contemporary relevance. Foreign investment policies in the post-reforms period have emphasized greater encouragement and mobilization of non-debt creating private inflows for plunging reliance on debt flows. This paper will focus on how foreign direct investment policy changed from 1990-91 up to now. A time series data of 25 years is used for analysing the policy changes. It is observed that India has more liberal policy. The growth in number of Greenfield investments in India has been more impressive than the number of M&A deals whereas equity capital for incorporated bodies FDI inflows has been increased continuously 2014-15. India has made major changes in FDI Policy, and it has positive impact on economic development.

Keywords: FDI, India, economic development, government

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Authors: Mahdy Elhusseiny, Richard Gearhart, Mariam Alyammahi

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In this study we analyse the impact of a number of major macroeconomic variables on industry-specific excess rates of return. In later specifications, we include time and recession fixed effects, to potentially capture time-specific trends that may have been changing over our panel. We have a number of results that bear mentioning. Seasonal and temporal factors found to have very large role in sector-specific excess returns. Increases in M1(money supply) decreases bank, insurance, real estate, and telecommunications, while increases industrial and transportation excess returns. The results indicate that the market return increases every sector-specific rate of return. The 2007 to 2009 recession significantly reduced excess returns in the bank, real estate, and transportation sectors.

Keywords: macroeconomic factors, industry returns, fixed effects, temporal factors

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Authors: Eworo David

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It is dearly evident that a company which does not and will not innovate faces the grave danger of being pushed out of existence. The purpose of this study is to bring to knowledge of companies the significance of capital budgeting in viable project implementation and for proper investment appraisal as regards steps involved in effective investment strategies. The study examines investment policies of Nigeria companies. It deals with an overview of capital budgeting. The analysis covers the data gathered from two multi-national companies in Nigeria. The population of the study was the senior managers and the top management staff of the companies. The system of capital budgeting structure and project implementation styles were compared and contrasted to determine whether the system has MADE or MARRED the development of the organizations. The recommendations contribute towards Nigeria companies to remain and survive in business through the use of capital budgeting.

Keywords: appraisal, budgeting structure, capital budgeting, effective investment strategies

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Authors: Mark Lokanan

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The paper analyzes the processing of complaints against investment brokers and dealer members through the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC) from 2008 to 2017. IIROC is the self-regulatory organization (SRO) that is responsible for policing investment dealers and brokerage firms that trade in Canada’s securities market. Data from the study came from IIROC's enforcement annual reports for the years examined. The case processing is evaluated base on the misconduct funnel that was originally designed for street crime and applies to the enforcement of investment fraud. The misconduct funnel is used as a framework to examine IIROC’s claim that it brought in more complaints (funnel in) than government regulators and shows how these complaints are funneled out and funneled away as they are processed through IIROC’s enforcement system. The results indicate that IIROC is ineffective in disciplining its members and is unable to handle the more serious quasi-criminal and improper sales practices offenses. It is hard not to see the results of the paper being used by the legislator in Ottawa to show the importance of a federal securities regulatory agency such as the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in the United States.

Keywords: investment fraud, securities regulation, compliance, enforcement

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Authors: Razan Salem

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Gender plays a vital role in the stock markets because men and women differ in their behavior when investing in stocks. Accordingly, the role of gender differences in investment behavior is an increasingly important strand in the field of behavioral finance research. The investment behaviors of women relative to men have been examined in the behavioral finance literature, mainly for comparison purposes. Women's roles in the stock market have not been examined in the behavioral finance literature, however, particularly with respect to the Arab region. This study aims to contribute towards a better understanding of the investment behavior of Arab women (in regards to their risk tolerance, investment confidence, and investment literacy levels) relative to Arab men; using a sample from Arab women and men investors living in Saudi Arabia and Jordan. In order to achieve the study's main aim, the researcher used non-parametric tests, as Mann-Whitney U test, along with frequency distribution analysis to analyze the study’s primary data. The researcher distributed close-ended online questionnaires to a sample of 550 Arab male and female individuals investing in stocks in both Saudi Arabia and Jordan. The results confirm that the sample Arab women invest less in stocks compared to Arab men due to their risk-averse behaviors and limited confidence levels. The results also reveal that due to Arab women’s very low investment literacy levels, they fear from taking the risk and invest often in stocks relative to Arab men. Overall, the study’s main variables (risk tolerance, investment confidence, and investment literacy levels) have a combined effect on the investment behavior of Arab women and their limited participation in the stock market. Hence, this study is one of the very first studies that indicate the combined effect of the three main variables (which are usually studied separately in the existing literature) on the investment behavior of women, particularly Arab women. This study makes three important contributions to the growing literature on gender differences in investment behavior. First, while the behavioral finance literature documents evidence on gender differences in investment behaviors in many developed countries, there are very limited studies that investigate such differences in Arab countries. Arab women investors, generally, are ignored from the behavioral finance literature due probably to cultural barriers and data collection difficulties. Thus, this study extends the literature to include Arab women and their investment behaviors when trading stock relative to Arab men. Moreover, the study associates women investment literacy and confidence levels with their financial risk behaviors and participation in the stock market. This study provides direct evidence on Arab women's investment behaviors when trading stocks. Overall, studying Arab women investors is important to investigate whether the investment behavior identified for Western women investors are also found in Arab women investors.

Keywords: Arab women, gender differences, investment behavior, stock markets

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Authors: Dejene Gizaw Kidane

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This study examines the impact of foreign direct investment on economic growth of Ethiopia using yearly time-series data for 1974 through 2013. Economic growth is proxies by real per capita gross domestic product and foreign direct investment proxies by the inflow of foreign direct investment. Other control variables such as gross domestic saving, trade, government consumption and inflation has been incorporated. In order to fully account for feedbacks, a vector autoregressive model is utilized. The results show that there is a stable, long-run relationship between foreign direct investment and economic growth. The variance decomposition results show that the main sources of Ethiopia economic growth variations are due largely own shocks. The pairwise Granger causality results show that there is a unidirectional causality that runs from FDI to economic growth of Ethiopia. Hence, the researcher therefore recommends that, FDI facilitate economic growth, so the government has to exert much effort in order to attract more FDI into the country.

Keywords: real per capita GDP, FDI, co-integration, VECM, Granger causality

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Authors: Sabrina Mortet

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The economic crisis, which struck the world economy in mid-2008, had an impact on migration in Europe, especially the employment situation of migrant workers. That’s why migrants tended to be the first to lose their jobs during the crisis, victims of the rule "last–in, first-out”. In the same context, the economic recession which affected the migration flows, immigration level has slowed while emigration has increased in some European countries. Since people go where jobs are, we will try to speak about the mobility of migrants after the crisis by focusing on return migration to see if migrants in the period of recession prefer going home or staying in the host country; and we will take Spain as a case of study, because it had attracted an extraordinarily high inflows of migration and it is one of the EU country which was hardly affected by the financial crisis.

Keywords: economic crisis, international migration, mobility, return migration, employement

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Authors: Thamo Sutharssan, Diogo Montalvao, Wen-Chung Wang, Yong Chen, Claudia Pisac

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A combined heat and power (CHP) system is an efficient and clean way to generate power (electricity). Heat produced by the CHP system can be used for water and space heating. The CHP system which uses hydrogen as fuel produces zero carbon emission. Its’ efficiency can reach more than 80% whereas that of a traditional power station can only reach up to 50% because much of the thermal energy is wasted. The other advantages of CHP systems include that they can decentralize energy generation, improve energy security and sustainability, and significantly reduce the energy cost to the users. This paper presents the economic benefits of using a CHP system in the domestic environment. For this analysis, natural gas is considered as potential fuel as the hydrogen fuel cell based CHP systems are rarely used. UK government incentives for CHP systems are also considered as the added benefit. Results show that CHP requires a significant initial investment in return it can reduce the annual energy bill significantly. Results show that an investment may be paid back in 7 years. After the back period, CHP can run for about 3 years as most of the CHP manufacturers provide 10-year warranty.

Keywords: combined heat and power, clean energy, hydrogen fuel cell, economic analysis of CHP, zero emission

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Authors: Ghita Benayad

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Asset allocation, which affects the long-term profitability of portfolios by distributing assets to fulfill a range of investment objectives, is the cornerstone of investment management in the dynamic and complicated world of financial markets. This paper offers a technique for optimizing strategic asset allocation with the goal of improving portfolio performance by addressing the inherent complexity and uncertainty of the market through the use of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) in a multi-objective modeling framework. The study's first section starts with a critical evaluation of conventional asset allocation techniques, highlighting how poorly they are able to capture the intricate relationships between assets and the volatile nature of the market. In order to overcome these challenges, the project suggests a PCA-driven methodology that isolates important characteristics influencing asset returns by decreasing the dimensionality of the investment universe. This decrease provides a stronger basis for asset allocation decisions by facilitating a clearer understanding of market structures and behaviors. Using a multi-objective optimization model, the project builds on this foundation by taking into account a number of performance metrics at once, including risk minimization, return maximization, and the accomplishment of predetermined investment goals like regulatory compliance or sustainability standards. This model provides a more comprehensive understanding of investor preferences and portfolio performance in comparison to conventional single-objective optimization techniques. While applying the PCA-driven multi-objective optimization model to historical market data, aiming to construct portfolios better under different market situations. As compared to portfolios produced from conventional asset allocation methodologies, the results show that portfolios optimized using the proposed method display improved risk-adjusted returns, more resilience to market downturns, and better alignment with specified investment objectives. The study also looks at the implications of this PCA technique for portfolio management, including the prospect that it might give investors a more advanced framework for navigating financial markets. The findings suggest that by combining PCA with multi-objective optimization, investors may obtain a more strategic and informed asset allocation that is responsive to both market conditions and individual investment preferences. In conclusion, this capstone project improves the field of financial engineering by creating a sophisticated asset allocation optimization model that integrates PCA with multi-objective optimization. In addition to raising concerns about the condition of asset allocation today, the proposed method of portfolio management opens up new avenues for research and application in the area of investment techniques.

Keywords: asset allocation, portfolio optimization, principle component analysis, multi-objective modelling, financial market

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Authors: O. Badagadze, G. Sirbiladze, I. Khutsishvili

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The work proposes a decision support methodology for the credit risk minimization in selection of investment projects. The methodology provides two stages of projects’ evaluation. Preliminary selection of projects with minor credit risks is made using the Expertons Method. The second stage makes ranking of chosen projects using the Possibilistic Discrimination Analysis Method. The latter is a new modification of a well-known Method of Fuzzy Discrimination Analysis.

Keywords: expert valuations, expertons, investment project risks, positive and negative discriminations, possibility distribution

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Authors: Ruqiya Anwar

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The present study is aimed to find out the Impact of Foreign direct Investment on lifestyle of working women in Rawalpindi and Islamabad (Pakistan). It was hypothesized that easy access to consumer loans uplifts the lifestyle of women. First part of the research study was aimed at developing a tool to measure the Impact of FDI on living pattern of women in Rawalpindi and Islamabad. Purposive sampling technique was used to collect the more reliable and valid data.81 females working in different banks of Rawalpindi and Islamabad (Pakistan) were included in the sample. The value of Alpha Reliability coefficient is .774 for the tool of study. Which was found satisfactory and indicated that tool is reliable to measure the study objectives. Finding of the study showed that foreign direct investment has significant and positive impact on lifestyle of women in Rawalpindi and Islamabad (Pakistan). Study also revealed that there is moderate and high level of consumption power women have through foreign direct investment, which supports the hypothesis.

Keywords: foreign direct investment, lifestyle of women, consumption power, consumer loans

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Authors: Misganaw Ayele Gelaw

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This abstract presents an overview of agricultural investment in Ethiopia, with a focus on the Oromia Region. Ethiopia is a developing country that heavily relies on agriculture as a major contributor to its economic growth and employment. The Oromia Region, located in the central part of the country, is the largest region in Ethiopia and plays a significant role in the agricultural sector. The study aims to explore the current state of agricultural investment in the Oromia Region, focusing on the opportunities, challenges, and potential benefits that arise from such investments. It also highlights the key agricultural investment strategies and policies implemented by the Ethiopian government to attract domestic and foreign investors. To achieve these objectives, a comprehensive literature review and analysis of relevant reports, publications, and government policies will be conducted. The study will also incorporate qualitative and quantitative data collection methods, such as interviews, surveys, and statistical analysis, to provide a well-rounded understanding of agricultural investment dynamics in the Oromia Region. The findings of this study are expected to shed light on the impact of agricultural investments on local farmers, rural development, food security, income generation, and overall economic growth in the Oromia Region. It will also identify the key risk factors and potential mitigations associated with agricultural investment, offering recommendations to policymakers, investors, and stakeholders to improve the effectiveness and sustainability of investment efforts in the region. This abstract highlights the importance of agricultural investment in the Oromia Region and Ethiopia as a whole, as it strives to enhance productivity, increase farmers' income, and contribute to the country's long-term development goals. By understanding the challenges and opportunities associated with agricultural investment, policymakers and investors can develop targeted strategies to ensure inclusive and sustainable growth in the agricultural sector, leading to improved livelihoods and economic prosperity in the Oromia Region.

Keywords: agriculture, investment, agriculture policy, economy

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Authors: Imen Latrous

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Family firm is the most common form of business organization in the world. Many family businesses rely heavily on their own capital to finance their expansion. This dependence on internal funds for their investment may be deliberate to maintain the family dominant position or involuntary as family firms have limited access to external funds. Our understanding of family firm’s choice to fund their own growth using existing capital is somewhat limited. The aim of this paper is to study whether the presence of a controlling family in the company either mitigates or exacerbates external financing constraints. The impact of family ownership on investment–cash flow sensitivity is ultimately an empirical question. We use a sample of 406 Canadian firms listed in Toronto Stock exchange (TSX) over the period 2005–2014 in order to explore this relationship. We distinguish between three elements in the definition of family firms, specifically ownership, control and management, to explore the issue whether family firms are more efficient organisational form. Our research contributes to the extant literature on family ownership in several ways. First, as our understanding of family firm’s investment cash flow sensitivity is somewhat limited in recession times, we explore the effect of family firms on the relation between investment and cash flow during the recent 2007-2009 financial crisis. We also analyse this relationship difference between family firms and non family firms before and during financial crisis. Finally, our paper addresses the endogeneity problem of family ownership and investment-cash flow sensitivity.

Keywords: family firms, investment–cash flow sensitivity, financial crisis, corporate governance

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Authors: Chin-Huang Huang, Chun-Chu Yeh

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Physical activities have a positive impact on individuals’ health and well-being. They also play an important role in promoting quality of life (QoL). The distance running enhances participants’ life satisfaction and provides positive experiences in physical activity. This study aims to measure the perception of QoL and to find the effect on satisfaction and intent to return for distance runners. Exploratory factor analysis is carried out to extract four major factorial dimensions of QoL, including multiple functions, spiritual, physical and cognitive factors. The main factors of QoL will be introduced into the regression function on satisfaction and return intention. The results show that the QoL factors including multiple functions, spiritual, physical and cognitive factors have a positive and significant impact on satisfaction for participants. The multiple functions and physical factors are also significantly positively correlated to the intent of return for runners.

Keywords: quality of life, physical activity, distance running, satisfaction

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Authors: Shilpi Tripathi

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India has adopted the policy of economic reforms (Globalization, Liberalization, and Privatization) in 1991 which has reduced the trade barriers and investment restrictions and further increased the economy’s international trade, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth. The paper empirically studies the relationship between India’s international trades, GDP, FDI and environment during 1978-2012. The first part of the paper focuses on the background and trends of FDI, GDP, trade, and environment (CO2). The second part focuses on the literature regarding the relationship among all the variables. The last part of paper, we examine the results of empirical analysis like co integration and Granger causality between foreign trade, FDI inflows, GDP and CO2 since 1978. The findings of the paper revealed that there is only one uni- directional causality exists between GDP and trade. The direction of causality reveals that international trade is one of the major contributors to the economic growth (GDP). While, there is no causality found between GDP and FDI, FDI, and CO2 and International trade and CO2. The paper concludes with the policy recommendations that will ensure environmental friendly trade, investment and growth in India for future.

Keywords: international trade, foreign direct investment, GDP, CO2, co-integration, granger causality test

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Authors: Sayed Kifayat Shah, Tang Zhongjun, Arfa Tanveer

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This study explores the significant heatwave effect on stock return and volatility. Using an ARCH/GARCH approach, it examines the relationship between the heatwave of Karachi, Islamabad, and Lahore on the KSE-100 index. It also explores the impact of heatwave on returns of the pharmaceutical and electronics industries. The empirical results confirm that that stock return is positively related to the heat waves of Karachi, negatively related to that of Islamabad, and is not affected by the heatwave of Lahore. Similarly, pharmaceutical and electronics indices are also positively related to heatwaves. These differences in results can be ascribed to the change in the behavior of the residents of that city. The outcomes are useful for understanding an investor's behavior reacting to weather and fluxes in stock price related to heatwave severity levels. The results can support investors in fixing biases in behavior.

Keywords: ARCH/GARCH model, heat wave, KSE-100 index, stock market return

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Authors: K. Y. Chen, H. Chua, C. W. Kan

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Japan is a well-developed country but the environmental issues are still a hot issue. In this study, we will analyse how the environmental investment affects the sustainable development in Japan. This paper will first describe the environmental policy of Japan and the effort input by the Japan government. Then, we will collect the yearly environmental data and also information about the environmental investment. Based on the data collected, we try to figure out the relationship between environmental investment and sustainable development in Japan. In addition, we will analyse the SWOT of environmental investment in Japan. Based on the economic information collected, Japan established a sound material-cycle society through changes in business and life styles. A comprehensive legal system for this kind of society was established in Japan. In addition, other supporting measures, such as financial measures, utilization of economic instruments, implementation of research and promotion of education and science and technology, help Japan to cope with the recent environmental challenges. Japan’s excellent environmental technologies changed its socioeconomic system. They are at the highest global standards. This can be reflected by the number of patents registered in Japan which has been on the steady growth. Country by country comparison in the application for patents on environmental technologies also indicates that Japan ranks high in such areas as atmospheric pollution and water quality management, solid waste management and renewable energy. This is a result of the large expenditure invested on research and development.

Keywords: Japan, environmental investment, sustainable development, analysis

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Authors: Cristian Păuna

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In the first decades of the 21st century, in the electronic trading environment, algorithmic capital investments became the primary tool to make a profit by speculations in financial markets. A significant number of traders, private or institutional investors are participating in the capital markets every day using automated algorithms. The autonomous trading software is today a considerable part in the business intelligence system of any modern financial activity. The trading decisions and orders are made automatically by computers using different mathematical models. This paper will present one of these models called Price Prediction Line. A mathematical algorithm will be revealed to build a reliable trend line, which is the base for limit conditions and automated investment signals, the core for a computerized investment system. The paper will guide how to apply these tools to generate entry and exit investment signals, limit conditions to build a mathematical filter for the investment opportunities, and the methodology to integrate all of these in automated investment software. The paper will also present trading results obtained for the leading German financial market index with the presented methods to analyze and to compare different automated investment algorithms. It was found that a specific mathematical algorithm can be optimized and integrated into an automated trading system with good and sustained results for the leading German Market. Investment results will be compared in order to qualify the presented model. In conclusion, a 1:6.12 risk was obtained to reward ratio applying the trigonometric method to the DAX Deutscher Aktienindex on 24 months investment. These results are superior to those obtained with other similar models as this paper reveal. The general idea sustained by this paper is that the Price Prediction Line model presented is a reliable capital investment methodology that can be successfully applied to build an automated investment system with excellent results.

Keywords: algorithmic trading, automated trading systems, high-frequency trading, DAX Deutscher Aktienindex

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Authors: Alicja Reuben, Amira Annabi

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In this paper, we explore the relationship between the selection of valuation techniques by investment banks and the banks’ risk perceptions and performance in the context of the theory of performativity. We use inferential statistics to study these relationships by building a unique dataset based on the disclosure of 12 investment banks’ 2012-2015 annual financial statements. Moreover, we create two constructs, namely intensity of use and risk perception. We measure the intensity of use as a frequency metric of how often a particular bank adopts valuation techniques for a particular asset or liability. We measure risk perception based on disclosed ranges of values for unobservable inputs. Our results are twofold: we find a significant negative correlation between (1) intensity of use and investment bank performance and (2) intensity of use and risk perception. These results indicate that a performative process takes place, and the valuation techniques are enacting their environment.

Keywords: language, linguistics, performativity, financial techniques

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Authors: Abootaleb Shirvani, Svetlozar Rachev

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ESG stands for Environmental, Social, and Governance and is a non-financial factor that investors use to specify material risks and growth opportunities in their analysis process. ESG ratings provide a quantitative measure of socially responsible investment, and it is essential to incorporate ESG ratings when modeling the dynamics of asset returns. In this article, we propose a triple subordinated Lévy process for incorporating numeric ESG ratings into dynamic asset pricing theory to model the time series properties of the stock returns. The motivation for introducing three layers of subordinator is twofold. The first two layers of subordinator capture the skew and fat-tailed properties of the stock return distribution that cannot be explained well by the existing Lévy subordinated model. The third layer of the subordinator introduces ESG valuation and incorporates numeric ESG ratings into dynamic asset pricing theory and option pricing. We employ the triple subordinator Lévy model for developing the ESG-valued stock return model, derive the implied ESG score surfaces for Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon stock returns, and compare the shape of the ESG implied surface scores for these stocks.

Keywords: ESG scores, dynamic asset pricing theory, multiple subordinated modeling, Lévy processes, option pricing

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Authors: Ying Zhu

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Recent years have witnessed a boom of foreign investments in the field of artificial intelligence (AI). Foreign investments provide critical capital for AI development but also trigger national security concerns of host states. A notable example is an increasing number of cases in which the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) has denied Chinese acquisitions of US technology companies on national security grounds. On July 19, 2018, the Congress has reached a deal on the final draft of a new provision to strengthen CFIUS’s authority to review overseas transactions involving sensitive US technology. The question is: how to reconcile the emerging tension between, on the one hand, foreign AI investors’ expectations of a predictable investment environment, and on the other hand, host states’ regulatory power on national security? This paper provides a methodology to reconcile this tension under international investment law. Based on an examination, the national security exception clauses in international investment treaties and the application of national security justification in investor-state arbitration jurisprudence, the paper argues that a traditional interpretation of the national security exception, based on the necessity concept in customary international law, fails to take into account new risks faced by countries, including security concerns over strategic industries such as AI. To overcome this shortage, the paper proposes to incorporate an integrated national security clause in international investment treaties, which includes a two-tier test: a ‘self-judging’ test in the pre-establishment period and a ‘proportionality’ test in the post-establishment period. At the end, the paper drafts a model national security clause for future treaty-drafting practice.

Keywords: foreign investment, artificial intelligence, international investment law, national security exception

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Authors: Nora Alomar, Bianca Alexandra Stefa, Saleh Bazi

Abstract:

This research uncovers the determinants that drive millennial consumers to adhere to product return of fast-fashion products purchases via e-commerce and what effects it has on consumer experience and satisfaction. Online consumption has skyrocketed, with e-commerce being the only, most reliable, and safe method of shopping during and post Covid-19. It has been noted customers are demanding a wide variety of product characteristics and a generous optimal return policy. The authors have selected to examine millennial consumers as they are digital natives and have an affinity for researching, reading product reviews, and shopping online, with a great spending power due to a higher disposable income in comparison to other generations. A multi-study approach is adopted, where study one (interviews, sample of 20 respondents) investigates the factors that drive product return, and study two (PLS-SEM, sample of 250 respondents) looks into the relationships of product return management against behavioral outcomes by having the generated factors (from study one) as moderators. Five themes are generated from study one (return policies, product characteristics, delivery lead time, seasonality, product trial & overspending). The authors identify that two out of the five factors (seasonality, product trial & overspending) have not been highlighted by the literature. The paper examines 11 hypotheses, where 10 are supported. Findings highlight the quality of the product return management influences the overall millennial customer experience and satisfaction. Findings also indicate that product return management was identified to have a significant negative effect on customer experience. Additionally, seasonality has a significant but negative moderation, which means increasing seasonality decreases the relationship between product return management and customer experience and satisfaction. Results highlight that return policies have a significant negative influence on the relationship between returning a product and customer experience and satisfaction. Moreover, product characteristics are also identified to have a significant negative influence on the relationship between returning a product and customer experience and satisfaction. This study further examines the influence of the factors on direct e-commerce websites and third-party e-commerce websites. Findings showcase a strong statistical significance for the increased rate of return of fast-fashion products on third-party websites. This paper aids practitioners in taking strategic decisions related to return management, to improve the quality of logistical services and, in turn, increase profitability.

Keywords: customer experience, customer satisfaction, e-commerce, fast-fashion, product returns

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Authors: K. Y. Chen, H. Chua, C. W. Kan

Abstract:

In this study, we will analyze Germany’s environmental situation such as water and air quality and review its environmental policy. In addition, we will collect the yearly environmental data as well as information concerning public environmental investment. Based on the data collect, we try to find out the relationship between public environmental investment and sustainable development in Germany. In addition, after comparing the trend of environmental quality and situation of environmental policy and investment, we may have some conclusions and learnable aspects to refer to. Based upon the data collected, it was revealed that Germany has established a well-developed institutionalization of environmental education. And the ecological culture at school is dynamic and continuous renewal. The booming of green markets in Germany is a very successful experience for learning. The green market not only creates a number of job opportunities, but also helps the government to improve and protect the environment. Acknowledgement: Authors would like to thank the financial support from the Hong Kong Polytechnic University for this work.

Keywords: Germany, public environmental investment, environment quality, sustainable development

Procedia PDF Downloads 250

Authors: Kaltrina Kusari

Abstract:

Displaced populations have received increasing attention, yet the experiences of return migrants remain largely hidden within social sciences. Existing research, albeit limited, suggests that policies which impact return migrants, especially those forced to return to their home countries, do not reflect their voices. Specifically, the United Nations Hight Commissioner for Refugees has adopted repatriation as a preferred policy solution, despite research which substantiates that returning to one’s home country is neither durable nor the end of the migration cycle; as many of 80% of returnees decide to remigrate. This one-size-fits-all approach to forced displacement does not recognize the impact of intersecting identity categories on return migration, thus failing to consider how ethnicity, gender, and class, among others, shape repatriation. To address this, this qualitative study examined the repatriation experiences of return migrant women from Kosovo and the role of social workers in facilitating return. In 2015, Kosovars constituted the fourth largest group of asylum seekers in the European Union, yet 96% of them were rejected. Additionally, since 1999 Kosovo has ranked among the top 10 countries of origin for return migrants. Considering that return migration trends are impacted by global power dynamics, this study relied on a postcolonial and transnational feminist framework to contextualize the mobility of displaced peoples in terms of globalization and conceptualize migration as a gendered process. Postcolonial and feminist theories suggest that power is partly operationalized through language, thus, Critical Discourse Analysis was used as a research methodology. CDA is concerned with examining how power, language, and discourses shape social processes and relationships of dominance. Data collection included interviews with 15 return migrant women (eight ethnic minorities and seven Albanian) and 18 service providers in Kosovo. The main findings illustrate that both returnee women and service providers rely on discourses which 1) challenge the voluntariness and sustainability of repatriation; 2) construct Kosovo as inferior to EU countries; and 3) highlight the impact of patriarchy and ethnic racism on return migration. A postcolonial transnational feminist analysis demonstrates that despite Kosovars’ challenges with repatriation, European Union countries use their power to impose repatriation as a preferred solution for Kosovo’s government. These findings add to the body of existing repatriation literature and provide important implications for how return migration might be carried out, not only in Kosovo but other countries as well.

Keywords: migration, gender, repatriation, transnational feminism

Procedia PDF Downloads 82