Search results for: ecological risks

Authors: Suraj Sam Issaka, Anita Asamoah, Abass Gibrilla, Joseph Richmond Fianko

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Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are a group of organic compounds that can form in edible oils during repeated frying and accumulate in fried foods. This study assesses the chances of health risks (carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic) due to PAHs levels in popular finger foods (bean cakes, plantain chips, doughnuts) fried in edible oils (mixed vegetable, sunflower, soybean) from the Ghanaian market. Employing probabilistic health risk assessment that considers variability and uncertainty in exposure and risk estimates provides a more realistic representation of potential health risks. Monte Carlo simulations with 10,000 iterations were used to estimate carcinogenic, mutagenic, and non-carcinogenic risks for different age groups (A: 6-10 years, B: 11-20 years, C: 20-70 years), food types (bean cake, plantain chips, doughnut), oil types (soybean, mixed vegetable, sunflower), and re-usage frying oil frequencies (once, twice, thrice). Our results suggest that, for age Group A, doughnuts posed the highest probability of carcinogenic risk (91.55%) exceeding the acceptable threshold, followed by bean cakes (43.87%) and plantain chips (7.72%), as well as the highest probability of unacceptable mutagenic risk (89.2%), followed by bean cakes (40.32%). Among age Group B, doughnuts again had the highest probability of exceeding carcinogenic risk limits (51.16%) and mutagenic risk limits (44.27%). At the same time, plantain chips exhibited the highest maximum carcinogenic risk. For adults age Group C, bean cakes had the highest probability of unacceptable carcinogenic (50.88%) and mutagenic risks (46.44%), though plantain chips showed the highest maximum values for both carcinogenic and mutagenic risks in this age group. Also, on non-carcinogenic risks across different age groups, it was found that age Group A) who consumed doughnuts had a 68.16% probability of a hazard quotient (HQ) greater than 1, suggesting potential cognitive impairment and lower IQ scores due to early PAH exposure. This group also faced risks from consuming plantain chips and bean cake. For age Group B, the consumption of plantain chips was associated with a 36.98% probability of HQ greater than 1, indicating a potential risk of reduced lung function. In age Group C, the consumption of plantain chips was linked to a 35.70% probability of HQ greater than 1, suggesting a potential risk of cardiovascular diseases.

Keywords: PAHs, fried foods, carcinogenic risk, non-carcinogenic risk, Monte Carlo simulations

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Authors: Azar Baghtaghi

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Financial risk management is critically important as it enables companies to maintain stability and profitability amidst market fluctuations and unexpected events. It involves the precise identification of risks that could impact investments, assets, and potential revenues. By implementing effective risk management strategies, companies can insure themselves against adverse market changes and prevent potential losses. In today's era, where markets are highly complex and influenced by various factors such as macroeconomic policies, exchange rate fluctuations, and natural disasters, the need for meticulous planning to cope with these uncertainties is more pronounced. Ultimately, financial risk management means being prepared for the future and the ability to sustain business in changing environments. A company capable of managing its risks not only achieves sustainable profitability but also gains the confidence of shareholders, investors, and business partners, enhancing its competitive position in the market. In this article, the types of financial risk and risk management strategies for improving financial performance were investigated. By identifying the risks stated in this article and their evaluation techniques, it is possible to improve the organization's financial performance.

Keywords: strategy, risk, risk management, financial performance.

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Authors: Maithem Al-Saadi, Min An

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During airport planning and design stages, the major issues of capacity and safety in construction and operation of an airport need to be taken into consideration. The airside of an airport is a major and critical infrastructure that usually consists of runway(s), taxiway system, and apron(s) etc., which have to be designed according to the international standards and recommendations, and local limitations to accommodate the forecasted demands. However, in many cases, airport airsides are suffering from unexpected risks that occurred during airport operations. Therefore, safety risk assessment should be applied in the planning and design of airsides to cope with the probability of risks and their consequences, and to make decisions to reduce the risks to as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP) based on safety risk assessment. This paper presents a combination approach of Failure Modes, Effect, and Criticality Analysis (FMECA), Fuzzy Reasoning Approach (FRA), and Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) to develop a risk analysis model for safety risk assessment. An illustrated example is used to the demonstrate risk assessment process on how the design of an airside in an airport can be analysed by using the proposed safety design risk assessment model.

Keywords: airport airside planning and design, design for safety, fuzzy reasoning approach, fuzzy AHP, risk assessment

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Authors: A. A. Adebayo, A. O. Ogunkeyede, A. O. Adeigbe

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Digital globalisation and yarn of Nigeria society to overcome the digital divide have resulted in contamination of soil by heavy metals (HMs) from e-waste activities at Alaba international market, Lagos, Nigeria. The aim of this research was to determine the concentration of various metals {Cadmium (Cd), Chromium (Cr), Copper (Cu), and Lead (Pb)} and identify their ecological and health risks for the people within the study area. A total of 60 soil samples were collected at Alaba market study area. Two types of samples were collected from each sampling points: topsoil (0-15 cm), subsoil (15 -30 cm). The metal concentration results showed that the soils were heavily contaminated by HMs at topsoil and subsoil. The geoaccummulation and ecological risk indices revealed high pollution level from all studied site. The health risk assessment results suggested that there is high possibility of carcinogenic risk to humans because the carcinogenic risk via corresponding exposure pathways exceeded the safety limit of 10-6 (the acceptable level of carcinogenic risk for human). Furthermore, inhalation of soil particles is the main exposure pathway for Cr to enter the human body for all ages. Children in the vicinity are exposed more to ingestion of Pb since they tend to eat earth (pica) and repeatedly suck their fingers. This study provides basic information to create awareness for a need to introduce pollution control measures and the need to protect the ecosystem and human health within the study area at Alaba international market.

Keywords: contaminated soil, ecological risk, hazard index, risk factor, exposure pathways, heavy metals

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Authors: C. Arslan, K. Yakar

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Social media is one of the most important and effective means of social interaction among people in which they create, share and exchange their ideas via photos, videos or voice messages. Although there are lots of communication tools. Social media sites are the most prominent ones that allows the users articulate themselves in a matter of seconds all around the world with almost any expenses and thus, they became very popular and widespread after its emergence. As the usage of social media increases, it becomes an effective instrument in social matters. While it is possible to use social media to emphasize basic human rights and protest some failures of any government as in “Arab Spring”, it is also possible to spread propaganda and misinformation just to cause long lasting insurgency, upheaval, turmoil or disorder as an instrument of intervention to internal affairs and state sovereignty by some hostile groups or countries. It is certain that social media has positive effects on participation in democracies allowing people express themselves freely and limitlessly, but obviously, the misuse of it is very common and it is quite possible that even a five-minute-long video record can topple down a government or give a solid reason to a government to review its policies on some certain areas. As one of the most important and effective means of participation, social media presents some opportunities as well as risks. In this study, the place of social media for participation in democracies will be demonstrated under the light of opportunities and risks.

Keywords: social media, democracy, participation, risks, opportunities

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Authors: M. Ndaw, G. Mendy, S. Ouya

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Information system risk management helps to reduce or eliminate risk by implementing appropriate controls. In this paper, we propose a quantification model of controls impact on information system risks by automatizing the residual criticality estimation step of FMECA which is based on a inductive reasoning. For this, we defined three equations based on type and maturity of controls. For testing, the values obtained with the model were compared to estimated values given by interlocutors during different working sessions and the result is satisfactory. This model allows an optimal assessment of controls maturity and facilitates risk analysis of information system.

Keywords: information system, risk, control, FMECA method

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Authors: Taehyun Kim, Hyunjoo Park, Taehyun Kim

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Since the rapid economic development, Korea has recently entered a period of low growth due to population decline and aging. Due to the urbanization around the metropolitan area and the hollowing of local cities, the ecological capacity of a city is decreasing while ecological footprints are increasing, requiring a compact space plan for maintaining urban functions. The purpose of this study is to analyze the relationship between urban spatial structure and residents' ecological footprints for sustainable spatial planning. To do this, we try to analyze the relationship between intra-urban spatial structure, such as net/gross density and service accessibility, and resident ecological footprints of food, housing, transportation, goods and services through survey and structural equation modeling. The results of the study will be useful in establishing an implementation plan for sustainable development goals (SDGs), especially for sustainable cities and communities (SDG 11) and responsible consumption and production (SDG 12) in the future.

Keywords: ecological footprint, structural equation modeling, survey, sustainability, urban spatial structure

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Authors: Jayaletchumi T. Sambantha Moorthy, Suhaimi bin Ibrahim, Mohd Naz’ri Mahrin

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Most quality models have defined usability as a significant factor that leads to improving product acceptability, increasing user satisfaction, improving product reliability, and also financially benefiting companies. Usability is also the best factor that acts as a balance for both the technical and human aspects of a software product, which is an important aspect in defining quality during software development process. A usability risk can be defined as a potential usability risk factor that a chosen action or activity may lead to a possible loss or an undesirable outcome. This could impact the usability of a software product thereby contributing to negative user experiences and causing a possible software product failure. Hence, it is important to mitigate and reduce usability risks in the software development process itself. By managing possible involved usability risks in software development process, failure of software product could be reduced. Therefore, this research uses the Delphi method to identify mitigation plans to reduce potential usability risks. The Delphi method is conducted with seven experts from the field of risk management and software development.

Keywords: usability, usability risk, risk management, risk mitigation, delphi study

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Authors: Fatemah A. Alqallaf, Debasis Kundu

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The aim of this paper is to introduce a bivariate inverse generalized exponential distribution which has a singular component. The proposed bivariate distribution can be used when the marginals have heavy-tailed distributions, and they have non-monotone hazard functions. Due to the presence of the singular component, it can be used quite effectively when there are ties in the data. Since it has four parameters, it is a very flexible bivariate distribution, and it can be used quite effectively for analyzing various bivariate data sets. Several dependency properties and dependency measures have been obtained. The maximum likelihood estimators cannot be obtained in closed form, and it involves solving a four-dimensional optimization problem. To avoid that, we have proposed to use an EM algorithm, and it involves solving only one non-linear equation at each `E'-step. Hence, the implementation of the proposed EM algorithm is very straight forward in practice. Extensive simulation experiments and the analysis of one data set have been performed. We have observed that the proposed bivariate inverse generalized exponential distribution can be used for modeling dependent competing risks data. One data set has been analyzed to show the effectiveness of the proposed model.

Keywords: Block and Basu bivariate distributions, competing risks, EM algorithm, Marshall-Olkin bivariate exponential distribution, maximum likelihood estimators

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Authors: Mikhail V. Khachaturyan

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The article analyzes problems of improving the management systems of the ownership risks in the conditions of the transformation of the Russian economy. Among the main sources of threats business owners should highlight is the inefficiency of the implementation of business models and interaction with hired managers. In this context, it is particularly important to analyze the relationship of business models and ownership risks. The analysis of this problem appears to be relevant for a number of reasons: Firstly, the increased risk appetite of the owner directly affects the business model and the composition of his holdings; secondly, owners with significant stakes in the company are factors in the formation of particular types of risks for owners, for which relations have a significant influence on a firm's competitiveness and ultimately determines its survival; and thirdly, inefficient system of management ownership of risk is one of the main causes of mass bankruptcies, which significantly affects the stable operation of the economy as a whole. The separation of the processes of possession, disposal and use in modern organizations is the cause of not only problems in the process of interaction between the owner and managers in managing the organization as a whole, but also the asymmetric information about the kinds and forms of the main risks. Managers tend to avoid risky projects, inhibit the diversification of the organization's assets, while owners can insist on the development of such projects, with the aim not only of creating new values for themselves and consumers, but also increasing the value of the company as a result of increasing capital. In terms of separating ownership and management, evaluation of projects by the ratio of risk-yield requires preservation of the influence of the owner on the process of development and making management decisions. It is obvious that without a clearly structured system of participation of the owner in managing the risks of their business, further development is hopeless. In modern conditions of forming a risk management system, owners are compelled to compromise between the desire to increase the organization's ability to produce new value, and, consequently, increase its cost due to the implementation of risky projects and the need to tolerate the cost of lost opportunities of risk diversification. Improving the effectiveness of the management of ownership risks may also contribute to the revitalization of creditors on implementation claims to inefficient owners, which ultimately will contribute to the efficiency models of ownership control to exclude variants of insolvency. It is obvious that in modern conditions, the success of the model of the ownership of risk management and audit is largely determined by the ability and willingness of the owner to find a compromise between potential opportunities for expanding the firm's ability to create new value through risk and maintaining the current level of new value creation and an acceptable level of risk through the use of models of diversification.

Keywords: improving, ownership risks, problem, Russia

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Authors: Mária Hudáková, Vladimír Míka, Katarína Hollá

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Making decisions is the core of management and a result of conscious activities which is under way in a particular environment and concrete conditions. The managers decide about the goals, procedures and about the methods how to respond to the changes and to the problems which developed. Their decisions affect the effectiveness, quality, economy and the overall successfulness in every organisation. In spite of this fact, they do not pay sufficient attention to the individual steps of the decision-making process. They emphasise more how to cope with the individual methods and techniques of making decisions and forget about the way how to cope with analysing the problem or assessing the individual solution variants. In many cases, the underestimating of the analytical phase can lead to an incorrect assessment of the problem and this can then negatively influence its further solution. Based on our analysis of the theoretical solutions by individual authors who are dealing with this area and the realised research in Slovakia and also abroad we can recognise an insufficient interest of the managers to assess the risks in the decision-making process. The goal of this paper is to assess the risks in the managers´ decision-making process relating to the conditions of the environment, to the subject’s activity (the manager’s personality), to the insufficient assessment of individual variants for solving the problems but also to situations when the arisen problem is not solved. The benefit of this paper is the effort to increase the need of the managers to deal with the risks during the decision-making process. It is important for every manager to assess the risks in his/her decision-making process and to make efforts to take such decisions which reflect the basic conditions, states and development of the environment in the best way and especially for the managers´ decisions to contribute to achieving the determined goals of the organisation as effectively as possible.

Keywords: risk, decision-making, manager, process, analysis, source of risk

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Authors: Manal Elgallal, Louise Fletcher, Barbara Evans

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Water scarcity is a growing concern in many arid and semi-arid countries. The increase of water scarcity threatens economic development and sustainability of human livelihoods as well as environment especially in developing countries. Globally, agriculture is the largest water consumption sector, accounting for approximately 70% of all freshwater extraction. Growing competition between the agricultural and higher economic value in urban and industrial uses of high-quality freshwater supplies, especially in regions where water scarcity major problems, will increase the pressure on this precious resource. In this circumstance, wastewater may provide reliable source of water for agriculture and enable freshwater to be exchanged for more economically valuable purposes. Concern regarding the risks from microbial and toxic components to human health and environment quality is a serious obstacle for wastewater reuse particularly in agriculture. Although powerful approaches and tools for microbial risk assessment and management for safe use of wastewater are now available, few studies have attempted to provide any mechanism to quantitatively assess and manage the environmental risks resulting from reusing wastewater. In seeking pragmatic solutions to sustainable wastewater reuse, there remains a lack of research incorporating both health and environmental risk assessment and management with economic analysis in order to quantitatively combine cost, benefits and risks to rank alternative reuse options. This study seeks to enhance effective reuse of wastewater for irrigation in arid and semi-arid areas, the outcome of the study is an evaluation approach that can be used to assess different reuse strategies and to determine the suitable scale at which treatment alternatives and interventions are possible, feasible and cost effective in order to optimise the trade-offs between risks to protect public health and the environment and preserving the substantial benefits.

Keywords: environmental risks, management, life cycle costs, waste water irrigation

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Authors: Marko Schuba, Florian Kessels, Niklas Reitz

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Operational technology (OT) controls physical processes in critical infrastructures and economically important industries. With the convergence of OT with classical information technology (IT), rising cybercrime worldwide and the increasingly difficult geopolitical situation, the risks of OT infrastructures being attacked are growing. Classical penetration testing, in which testers take on the role of an attacker, has so far found little acceptance in the OT sector - the risk that a penetration test could do more harm than good seems too great. This paper examines the resilience of various OT systems using typical penetration test tools. It is shown that such a test certainly involves risks, but is also feasible in OT if a cautious approach is taken. Therefore, OT penetration testing should be considered as a tool to improve the cyber security of critical infrastructures.

Keywords: penetration testing, OT, ICS, OT security

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Authors: Messay Mulugeta, Degefa Tolossa

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The purpose of this paper is to scrutinize trends of climate risks in eastern and southeastern parts of Ethiopia. This part of the country appears severely affected by recurrent droughts, erratic rainfall, and increasing temperature condition. Particularly, erratic rains and moisture stresses have been forcibly threatening and shoving the people over many decades coupled with unproductive policy frameworks and weak institutional setups. These menaces have been more severe in dry lowlands where rainfall is more erratic and scarce. Long-term climate data of nine weather stations in eastern and southeastern parts of Ethiopia were obtained from National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia (NMA). As issues related to climate risks are very intricate, different techniques and indices were applied to deal with the objectives of the study. It is concluded that erratic rainfall, moisture scarcity, and increasing temperature conditions have been the main challenges in eastern and southeastern Ethiopia. In fact, these risks can be eased by putting in place efficient and integrated rural development strategies, environmental rehabilitation plans of action in overworked areas, proper irrigation and water harvesting practices and well thought-out and genuine resettlement schemes.

Keywords: rainfall variability, erratic rains, precipitation concentration index (PCI), climatic pattern, Ethiopia

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Authors: Abdirahim Mohamed, Sarita Rana Chhetri, Michael Sleath, Nadia Saleem

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Rationale: Internet usage has been very much integrated into our daily lives. Internet usage within a neurodevelopmental disorder population is also on the increase. Nevertheless, there is very little empirical research on how this population virtually protect themselves; along with how their parents can keep them safe online. This topic was an ever-growing concern to the parents within our services and in many cases would add to the stresses and mental health of parents. This ignited an idea within our team to conduct research to explore the perceived online risks within this population and how they keep themselves safe. In conjunction, we also explored how parents and caregivers monitor and safeguard their young people to the potential threats online. Our hypothesis was that the perceived risks will heavily outnumber the safeguarding measures implemented by this population. Method: Within the Coventry and Warwickshire NHS Partnership Trust Child and Adolescent Mental Health Service (CAMHS), we distributed qualitative questionnaires to all the clinical bases (N=80). Questions explored topics such as daily internet usage, safeguarding measures, and perceived threats. The researchers requested for all CAMHS clinicians to identify participants. Participants in this study were accessing CAMHS for neurodevelopmental specific interventions. Results: The data were analysed using both Excel and SPSS. Within SPSS, a MANOVA was conducted and found a significant difference between safeguarding measures and perceived online risks within responses (p ≤ 0.5). This supports our hypothesis that participants in this population are well versed in the safeguarding issues of the internet; however, struggle to implement appropriate preventative measures. Data were also screened using Excel and found that all parents and carers stated they 'monitored their child’s internet use'. Conclusion: Data suggest that parents/carers may require more specific intervention to equip them with preventative measures due to the clear discrepancy between perceived risks and safeguarding measures. More research may also need to be conducted around this area to determine appropriate methodology to explore this topic further.

Keywords: Internet, health , how safe are we , internet health check

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Authors: Anna Juliet Stephens

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This research emphasises the importance of incorporating traditional ecological knowledge into Peru’s development plans, as a way to manage some of the more adverse impacts of globalisation which continue to impinge on one of the world’s most biodiverse regions. In doing so, it argues for a development strategy to be implemented in the Peruvian Amazon which prioritises local and indigenous rights, needs and perspectives.

Keywords: traditional ecological knowledge, peruvian amazon, globalisation, indigenous, development

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Authors: Ping Jiang, Yunyan Xing, Dian Zhang, Bo Guo

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The reliability qualification test (RQT) is widely used in product development to qualify whether the product meets predetermined reliability requirements, which are mainly described in terms of reliability indices, for example, MTBF (Mean Time Between Failures). It is widely exercised in product development. In engineering practices, RQT plans are mandatorily referred to standards, such as MIL-STD-781 or GJB899A-2009. But these conventional RQT plans in standards are not preferred, as the test plans often require long test times or have high risks for both producer and consumer due to the fact that the methods in the standards only use the test data of the product itself. And the standards usually assume that the product is exponentially distributed, which is not suitable for a complex product other than electronics. So it is desirable to develop an RQT plan derivation method that safely shortens test time while keeping the two risks under control. To meet this end, for the product whose lifetime follows Weibull distribution, an RQT plan derivation method is developed. The merit of the method is that expert judgment is taken into account. This is implemented by applying the Bayesian method, which translates the expert judgment into prior information on product reliability. Then producer’s risk and the consumer’s risk are calculated accordingly. The procedures to derive RQT plans are also proposed in this paper. As extra information and expert judgment are added to the derivation, the derived test plans have the potential to shorten the required test time and have satisfactory low risks for both producer and consumer, compared with conventional test plans. A case study is provided to prove that when using expert judgment in deriving product test plans, the proposed method is capable of finding ideal test plans that not only reduce the two risks but also shorten the required test time as well.

Keywords: expert judgment, reliability qualification test, test plan derivation, producer’s risk, consumer’s risk

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Authors: Rahele Hasani, Iraj Mehregan, Kambiz Larijani, Taher Nejadsattari, Romain Scalone

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Essential oils of Heracleum persicum (Apiaceae) have been widely used from many years ago, but the difference of its properties among different populations have not been identified up to now. Hydrodistilation Clevenger type was used to obtaining the fruit essential oils of four populations of H. persicum from different localities in Iran, then they were characterized by GC-FID and GC-MS analyses. Some ecological factors were also measured. The oils of four populations were compared to determine the similarities and differences and the relationships between these factors and ecological factors. Based on the result, 18-32 different components were identified in four populations, while the percentage of the main components was higher in population with lower number of components. According to the statistical analyses of chemical components and ecological factors, it can be concluded that some ecological factors such as altitude, less humidity, high difference between day and night temperature and salty soil would lead to lower number of components in essential oil, whereas they consist the higher percentage.

Keywords: Chemotaxonomy, Persian hogweed, Ecological factors, Apiaceae.

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Authors: Hien T. T. Ho, Tsunemi Watanabe

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The regulatory and market pressures on the restriction of nonylphenol and its ethoxylates in textile articles have confronted the textile manufacturers, particularly those in developing countries. This study aimed to examine the tentative behavior of the textile manufacturers in Vietnam from the perspectives of attitude and the perceptions of technical and organizational adaptabilities, risks, benefits, and barriers. Personal interviews were conducted with five technical specialists from four textile firms and one chemical supplier. The environmental regulatory and market situations regarding the chemical use in Vietnam were also described. The findings revealed two main opposing trends of chemical substitution depending on the market orientation of firms that governed the patterns of risk and benefit perception. The indirect influence of perceived adaptabilities on firm tentative behavior through perceived risks was elucidated, which initiated a conceptual model of firm’s behavior combining the organizational-based and the rational-based relationships. The intermediary role of non-governmental textile and garment industrial/ trade associations is highlighted to strengthen private firm’s informative capacity.

Keywords: firm behavior, institutional analysis, organizational adaptation, technical adaptation

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Authors: Jefferson Camacho Mejia, Jenny Paola Forero Pachon, Luis Carlos Gomez Florez

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The innumerable possibilities offered by the use of Information Technology (IT) in the development of different socio-economic activities has made a change in the social paradigm and the emergence of the so-called information and knowledge society. The Colombian government, aware of this reality, has been promoting the use of IT as part of the E-government strategy adopted in the country. However, it is well known that the use of IT implies the existence of certain threats that put the security of information in the digital environment at risk. One of the priorities of the Colombian government is to improve access to alternative justice through IT, in particular, access to Alternative Dispute Resolution (ADR): conciliation, arbitration and friendly composition; by means of which it is sought that the citizens directly resolve their differences. To this end, a trend has been identified in the use of Online Dispute Resolution (ODR) systems, which extend the benefits of ADR to the digital environment through the use of IT. This article presents a process for the analysis of information security risks associated with the incorporation of ODR systems in the context of conciliation in Colombia, based on four fundamental stages identified in the literature: (I) Identification of assets, (II) Identification of threats and vulnerabilities (III) Estimation of the impact and 4) Estimation of risk levels. The methodological design adopted for this research was the grounded theory, since it involves interactions that are applied to a specific context and from the perspective of diverse participants. As a result of this investigation, the activities to be followed are defined to carry out an analysis of information security risks, in the context of the conciliation in Colombia supported by ODR systems, thus contributing to the estimation of the risks to make possible its subsequent treatment.

Keywords: alternative dispute resolution, conciliation, information security, online dispute resolution systems, process, risk analysis

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Authors: Ruchi Agarwal, Jake Ansell

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Austerity impacts on all aspects of society. Companies into the future will have to be more capable of dealing with the risks they face. Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) has widely been accepted in recent years as an approach to manage risks within businesses. ERM attempts to tackle risk holistically with gains from opportunities in a managing risk and reduction in the risk of failure. The paper reviews merits and demerits of approaches to risk management in regard to antifragility. A qualitative study has investigated current practices and the problems with ERM implementation by interviewing over 25 chief risk officers and senior management. The findings indicate the gap in ERM description, understanding, and implementation. The paper suggests risk learning and expertise knowledge supports development of effective enterprise risk management by designing systems with inherent resilience.

Keywords: risk management, interviews, antifragility, failure

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Authors: Mohamed El-Bady

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The Northern Egyptian Lagoons are (from east to west) Bardawil Lagoon, Manzala Lagoon, Burullus Lagoon, Edku Lagoons and Mariute Lagoon. These lagoons have been received the bulk of drainage water from the lands of Delta and from the other coastal areas. Where, the heavy metals can occur in Lagoons environments through a variety of sources, including industries, wastewaters and domestic effluents. The potential ecological risk index (RI) calculation of the bottom sediments of the northern lagoons depends on contamination factor (CF), potential ecological risk factor and proposed toxic response factor (Tr). Each lagoon with special indices according to its conditions.

Keywords: Northern Lagoons, Nile Delta, ecological risk index, contamination factor

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Authors: Wenqian Bai

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Background: In response to the post-pandemic directives of Xi Jinping concerning the new era of ecological civilization, China has embarked on ecological restoration projects across its territorial spaces. This initiative faces challenges such as complex evaluation metrics and subpar informatization standards. Methodology: This research focuses on Mianzhu City, Sichuan Province, to assess its resource and environmental carrying capacities and the appropriateness of land use for development from ecological, agricultural, and urban perspectives. The study incorporates a range of spatial data to evaluate factors like ecosystem services (including water conservation, soil retention, and biodiversity), ecological vulnerability (addressing issues like soil erosion and desertification), and resilience. Utilizing the Minimum Cumulative Resistance model along with the ‘Three Zones and Three Lines’ strategy, the research maps out ecological corridors and significant ecological networks. These frameworks support the ecological restoration and environmental enhancement of the area. Results: The study identifies critical ecological zones in Mianzhu City's northwestern region, highlighting areas essential for protection and particularly crucial for water conservation. The southeastern region is categorized as a generally protected ecological zone with respective ratings for water conservation functionality and ecosystem resilience. The research also explores the spatial challenges of three ecological functions and underscores the substantial impact of human activities, such as mining and agricultural expansion, on the ecological baseline. The proposed spatial arrangement for ecological restoration, termed ‘One Mountain, One Belt, Four Rivers, Five Zones, and Multiple Corridors’, strategically divides the city into eight major restoration zones, each with specific tasks and projects. Conclusion: With its significant ‘mountain-plain’ geography, Mianzhu City acts as a crucial ecological buffer for the Yangtze River's upper reaches. Future development should focus on enhancing ecological corridors in agriculture and urban areas, controlling soil erosion, and converting farmlands back to forests and grasslands to foster ecosystem rehabilitation.

Keywords: ecological restoration, resource and environmental carrying capacity, land development suitability, ecosystem services, ecological vulnerability, ecological networks

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Authors: Layal Mansour

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The aim of this paper is to identify whether oil price volatility or geopolitical risks can predict future financial stress periods or economic recessions in Kuwait. We construct the first Financial Stress Index for Kuwait (FSIK) that includes informative vulnerable indicators of the main financial sectors: the banking sector, the equities market, and the foreign exchange market. The study covers the period from 2000 to 2020, so it includes the two recent most devastating world economic crises with oil price fluctuation: the Covid-19 pandemic crisis and Ukraine-Russia War. All data are taken by the central bank of Kuwait, the World Bank, IMF, DataStream, and from Federal Reserve System St Louis. The variables are computed as the percentage growth rate, then standardized and aggregated into one index using the variance equal weights method, the most frequently used in the literature. The graphical FSIK analysis provides detailed information (by dates) to policymakers on how internal financial stability depends on internal policy and events such as government elections or resignation. It also shows how monetary authorities or internal policymakers’ decisions to relieve personal loans or increase/decrease the public budget trigger internal financial instability. The empirical analysis under vector autoregression (VAR) models shows the dynamic causal relationship between the oil price fluctuation and the Kuwaiti economy, which relies heavily on the oil price. Similarly, using vector autoregression (VAR) models to assess the impact of the global geopolitical risks on Kuwaiti financial stability, results reveal whether Kuwait is confronted with or sheltered from geopolitical risks. The Financial Stress Index serves as a guide for macroprudential regulators in order to understand the weakness of the overall Kuwaiti financial market and economy regardless of the Kuwaiti dinar strength and exchange rate stability. It helps policymakers predict future stress periods and, thus, address alternative cushions to confront future possible financial threats.

Keywords: Kuwait, financial stress index, causality test, VAR, oil price, geopolitical risks

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Authors: Pegah Zamani

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This multidisciplinary study interrogates the reformulation of socio-ecological systems by bringing different disciplines together and incorporating ecological, social, and technological components to the sustainable design. The study seeks for a holistic sustainable system to understand the multidimensional impact of the evolving innovative technologies on responding to the variable socio-environmental conditions. Through a range of cases, from the vernacular built spaces to the sophisticated optimized systems, the research unfolds how far the environmental elements would impact the performance of a sustainable building, its micro-climatic ecological requirements, and its human inhabitation. As a product of the advancing technologies, an optimized and environmentally responsive building offers new identification, and realization of the built space through reformulating the connection to its internal and external environments (such as solar, thermal, and airflow), as well as its dwellers. The study inquires properties of optimized buildings, by bringing into the equation not only the environmental but also the socio-cultural, morphological, and phenomenal factors. Thus, the research underlines optimized built space as a product and practice which would not be meaningful without addressing and dynamically adjusting to the diversity and complexity of socio-ecological systems.

Keywords: ecology, morphology, socio-ecological systems, sustainability

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Authors: Junaid Asimiyu Mohammed, Olakunle Docas Tosin

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The housing environment in many developing countries is fraught with risks that have potential negative impacts on the lives of the residents. The study examined the risk factors in residential areas of two neighborhoods in Bosso Local Government Areas of Minna in Nigeria with a view to determining the level of their potential impacts. A sample of 378 households was drawn from the estimated population of 22,751 household heads. The questionnaire and direct observation were used as instruments for data collection. The data collected were analyzed using the Relative Importance Index (RII) rule to determine the level of the potential impact of the risk factors while ArcGIS was used for mapping the spatial distribution of the risks. The study established that the housing environment of Angwan Biri and El-Waziri areas of Bosso is poor and vulnerable as 26% of the houses were not habitable and 57% were only fairly habitable. The risks of epidemics, building collapse and rainstorms were evident in the area as 53% of the houses had poor ventilation; 20% of residents had no access to toilets; 47% practiced open waste dumping; 46% of the houses had cracked walls while 52% of the roofs were weak and sagging. The results of the analysis of the potential impact of the risk factors indicate a RII score of 0.528 for building collapse, 0.758 for rainstorms and 0.830 for epidemics, indicating a moderate to very high level of potential impacts. The mean RII score of 0.639 shows a significant potential impact of the risk factors. The study recommends the implementation of sanitation measures, provision of basic urban facilities and neighborhood revitalization through housing infrastructure retrofitting as measures to mitigate the risks of disasters and improve the living conditions of the residents of the study area.

Keywords: assessment, risk, residential, Nigeria

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Authors: Berrin Şentürk

Abstract:

In this study, due to the recurrence of bovine tuberculosis, in the same areas, the risk factors for the disease were determined and evaluated at the local level. This study was carried out in 32 farms where the disease was detected in the district and center of Samsun province in 2014. Predetermined risk factors, such as farm, environmental and economic risks, were investigated with the survey method. It was predetermined that risks in the three groups are similar to the risk variables of the disease on the global scale. These risk factors that increase the susceptibility of the infection must be understood by the herd owners. The risk-based contagious disease management system approach should be applied for bovine tuberculosis by farmers, animal health professionals and public and private sector decision makers.

Keywords: bovine tuberculosis, disease management, control, outbreak, risk analysis

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Authors: Ritsuko Kawasaki, Takeshi Hiromatsu

Abstract:

Management is required to understand all information security risks within an organization, and to make decisions on which information security risks should be treated in what level by allocating how much amount of cost. However, such decision-making is not usually easy, because various measures for risk treatment must be selected with the suitable application levels. In addition, some measures may have objectives conflicting with each other. It also makes the selection difficult. Therefore, this paper provides a model which supports the selection of measures by applying multi-objective analysis to find an optimal solution. Additionally, a list of measures is also provided to make the selection easier and more effective without any leakage of measures.

Keywords: information security risk treatment, selection of risk measures, risk acceptance, multi-objective optimization

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Authors: Benjamin Ankomah-Asare, Richard Adade

Abstract:

Sea level rise (SLR) poses a significant threat to coastal communities globally. Ghana has over the years implemented protective measures such as the construction of groynes and revetment to serve as barriers to sea waves in major cities and towns to prevent sea erosion and flooding. For vulnerable rural coastal communities, the planned retreat is often proposed; however, relocation costs are often underestimated as losses of future social and cultural value are not always adequately taken into account. Through a mixed-methods approach combining qualitative interviews, surveys, and spatial analysis, the study examined the experiences of coastal rural communities in Ghana and assess the effectiveness of relocation strategies in addressing the socio-economic and environmental challenges posed by sea level rise. The study revealed the devastating consequences of sea level rise on these communities, including increased flooding, erosion, and saltwater intrusion into freshwater sources. Moreover, it highlights the adaptive capacities within these communities and how factors such as infrastructure, economic activities, cultural heritage, and governance structures shape their resilience in the face of environmental change. While relocation can be an effective strategy in reducing the risks associated with sea level rise, the study recommends that proper implementation of this adaptation strategy can be achieved when coupled with community-led planning, participatory decision-making, and targeted support for vulnerable groups.

Keywords: sea level rise, relocation, socio-ecological impacts, rural communities

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Authors: Taonga Temwani Chibaka

Abstract:

This qualitative research study was conducted to identify the common risk factors that affect the construction industry in Malawi in the building and infrastructure (civil works) projects. The study then evaluates the possible risk responses that are done to mitigate the various risk factors that were identified. I addition the research also established the barriers to risk management implementation with lastly mapping out as where the identified risk factors fall on which stage of the project and then also map out the knowledge areas that need to be worked on the cases on Malawian construction industry in order to mitigate most of the identified risk factors. The study involved the interviewing the professionals from the construction industry in Malawi where insights and ideas were collected, analysed and interpreted. The key study findings show that risks related to clients group are perceived as most critical followed by the contractor related, consultant related and then external group related factors respectively where preventive measures are the most applied risk response technique where the aim to avoid most of the risk factors from happening. Most of the risk factors identified were internal risks and in managerial category which suggested that risk planning was to be emphasized at pre-contract stage to minimize these risks since a bigger percentage of the risk factors were mapped out at implementation stage. Furthermore, barriers to risk management were identified and the key barriers were lack of awareness; lack of knowledge; lack of formal policies in place; regarded as costly and limited time which resulted in proposing that regulating authorities to purposefully introduce intense training on risk management to make known of this new knowledge area. The study then recommends that organisation should formally implement risk management where policies should be introduced to enforce all parties to undertake this. Risk planning was regarded as paramount and this to be done from pre-contract phase so as to mitigate 80% of the risk factors. Finally, training should be done on all project management knowledge areas.

Keywords: risk management, risk factors, risks, malawi

Procedia PDF Downloads 322