Search results for: demand fragility curve

Authors: Collins Ogbu, Godwin Johnny Akpan, James NDA Jacob

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The debilitating outcomes of violent conflict, consummated by rural armed banditry have nonetheless, occasioned the need for the mapping of crime zones in Nigeria. As a step towards understanding the scourge of armed bandits, ungoverned spaces have been uncovered as the most dominant excuse for rural crimes and fierce confrontations. From the creeks of the Niger Delta to the forest of Sambisa, Small Arms and Light Weapons (SALW) have proliferated to the vagaries of national insecurity. While the trends present indications of State fragility, the paucity of governance in these so-called ungoverned spaces has persistently reflected a Hobbesian state of nature, where the fittest survives. This study, therefore, interrogates the demographic implications of these ungoverned spaces by specifically identifying the most immediate features of the characters in the areas under investigation. The Farmers-Herders Crises, Niger-Delta Militancy, Boko-Haram Insurgency, Armed Robbery, Kidnapping and Cattle Rustling all define the major focus. In undertaking this study, anecdotal sources will be relied on, while extant information on the concept of ungoverned spaces will be content-analyzed. It is hoped that the knowledge gathered, as a result, will ultimately aid in proffering a dependable panacea to the crises of rural armed banditry in Nigeria.

Keywords: ungoverned spaces, rural armed banditry, state fragility, conflicts

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Authors: Hussain Ali Bekhet, Tuan Ab Rashid Bin Tuan Abdullah, Tahira Yasmin

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It is very important for electric utility to determine dominant sectors which have more impacts on electricity consumption in national economy system. The aim of this paper is to examine the electricity demand multipliers in Malaysia for (2005-2014) period. Malaysian Input-output tables, 2005 and 2010 are used. Besides, a new concept, electricity demand multiplier (EDM), is presented to identify key sectors imposing great impacts on electricity demand quantitatively. In order to testify the effectiveness of the Malaysian energy policies, it notes that there is fluctuation of the ranking sectors between 2005 and 2010. This could be reflected that there is efficiency with pace of development in Malaysia. This can be good indication for decision makers for designing future energy policies.

Keywords: input-output model, demand multipliers, electricity, key sectors, Malaysia

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Authors: Ioana Neamtu

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This paper investigates the potential for demand-side management for the system price in the Nordic electricity market and the price effects of introducing wind-power into the system. The model proposed accounts for the micro-structure of the Nordic electricity market by modeling each hour individually, while still accounting for the relationship between the hours within a day. This flexibility allows us to explore the differences between peak and shoulder demand hours. Preliminary results show potential for demand response management, as indicated by the price elasticity of demand as well as a small but statistically significant decrease in price, given by the wind power penetration. Moreover, our study shows that these effects are stronger during day-time and peak hours,compared to night-time and shoulder hours.

Keywords: structural model, GMM estimation, system of equations, electricity market

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Authors: I. Toumi, Y. Abed, A. Bouafia

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This paper presents a methodology for identifying the cohesive soil parameters that takes into account different constitutive equations. The procedure, applied to identify the parameters of generalized Prager model associated to the Drucker & Prager failure criterion from a pressuremeter expansion curve, is based on an inverse analysis approach, which consists of minimizing the function representing the difference between the experimental curve and the simulated curve using a simplex algorithm. The model response on pressuremeter path and its identification from experimental data lead to the determination of the friction angle, the cohesion and the Young modulus. Some parameters effects on the simulated curves and stresses path around pressuremeter probe are presented. Comparisons between the parameters determined with the proposed method and those obtained by other means are also presented.

Keywords: cohesive soils, cavity expansion, pressuremeter test, finite element method, optimization procedure, simplex algorithm

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Authors: Saeed Chamehsara, Seyed Mostafa Mirsalim, Mehdi Tajdari

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In this study, the effect of fuel injection discharge curve and injection pressure simultaneously for upgrading power of heavy duty diesel engine by simulation of combustion process in AVL-Fire software are discussed. Hence, the fuel injection discharge curve was changed from semi-triangular to rectangular which is usual in common rail fuel injection system. Injection pressure with respect to amount of injected fuel and nozzle hole diameter are changed. Injection pressure is calculated by an experimental equation which is for heavy duty diesel engines with common rail fuel injection system. Upgrading power for 1000 and 2000 bar injection pressure are discussed. For 1000 bar injection pressure with 188 mg injected fuel and 3 mm nozzle hole diameter in compare with first state which is semi-triangular discharge curve with 139 mg injected fuel and 3 mm nozzle hole diameter, upgrading power is about 19% whereas the special change has not been observed in cylinder pressure. On the other hand, both the NOX emission and the Soot emission decreased about 30% and 6% respectively. Compared with first state, for 2000 bar injection pressure that injected fuel and nozzle diameter are 196 mg and 2.6 mm respectively, upgrading power is about 22% whereas cylinder pressure has been fixed and NOX emission and the Soot emissions are decreased 36% and 20%, respectively.

Keywords: CFD simulation, HD diesel engine, upgrading power, injection pressure, fuel injection discharge curve, combustion process

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Authors: N. R. Badurally Adam, S. R. Monebhurrun, M. Z. Dauhoo, A. Khoodaruth

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Transport energy demand is vital for the economic growth of any country. Globalisation and better standard of living plays an important role in transport energy demand. Recently, transport energy demand in Mauritius has increased significantly, thus leading to an abuse of natural resources and thereby contributing to global warming. Forecasting the transport energy demand is therefore important for controlling and managing the demand. In this paper, we develop a model to predict the transport energy demand. The model developed is based on a system of five stochastic differential equations (SDEs) consisting of five endogenous variables: fuel price, population, gross domestic product (GDP), number of vehicles and transport energy demand and three exogenous parameters: crude birth rate, crude death rate and labour force. An interval of seven years is used to avoid any falsification of result since Mauritius is a developing country. Data available for Mauritius from year 2003 up to 2009 are used to obtain the values of design variables by applying genetic algorithm. The model is verified and validated for 2010 to 2012 by substituting the values of coefficients obtained by GA in the model and using particle swarm optimisation (PSO) to predict the values of the exogenous parameters. This model will help to control the transport energy demand in Mauritius which will in turn foster Mauritius towards a pollution-free country and decrease our dependence on fossil fuels.

Keywords: genetic algorithm, modeling, particle swarm optimization, stochastic differential equations, transport energy demand

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Authors: Aysun Pınarbaşı, Béla Vizvári

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The countries are the units that procure the vaccines during the COVID-19 pandemic. The delivered quantities are huge. The countries must bear the inventory holding cost according to the variation of stock quantities. This cost depends on the speed of the vaccination in the country. This speed is time-dependent. The vaccinated portion of the population can be approximated by the cumulative distribution function of the Cauchy distribution. A model is provided for determining the minimal-cost inventory policy, and its optimality conditions are provided. The model is solved for 20 countries for different numbers of procurements. The results reveal the individual behavior of each country. We provide an inventory policy for the pandemic period for the countries. This paper presents a deterministic model for vaccines with a demand rate variable over time for the countries. It is aimed to provide an analytical model to deal with the minimization of holding cost and develop inventory policies regarding this aim to be used for a variety of perishable products such as vaccines. The saturation process is introduced, and an approximation of the vaccination curve of the countries has been discussed. According to this aspect, a deterministic model for inventory policy has been developed.

Keywords: covid-19, vaccination, inventory policy, bounded total demand, inventory holding cost, cauchy distribution, sigmoid function

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Authors: Avadhoot Bhosale, Robin Davis P., Pradip Sarkar

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The seismic performance of buildings with irregular distribution of mass, stiffness and strength along the height may be significantly different from that of regular buildings with masonry infill. Masonry infilled reinforced concrete (RC) frames are very common structural forms used for multi-storey building construction. These structures are found to perform better in past earthquakes owing to additional strength, stiffness and energy dissipation in the infill walls. The seismic performance of a building depends on the variation of material, structural and geometrical properties. The sensitivity of these properties affects the seismic response of the building. The main objective of the sensitivity analysis is to found out the most sensitive parameter that affects the response of the building. This paper presents a sensitivity analysis by considering 5% and 95% probability value of random variable in the infills characteristics, trying to obtain a reasonable range of results representing a wide number of possible situations that can be met in practice by using pushover analysis. The results show that the strength-related variation values of concrete and masonry, with the exception of tensile strength of the concrete, have shown a significant effect on the structural performance and that this effect increases with the progress of damage condition for the concrete. The seismic risk assessments of the selected frames are expressed in terms of reliability index.

Keywords: fragility curve, sensitivity analysis, reliability index, RC frames

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Authors: D. M. S. Bandara, Yunqi Lei, Ye Luo

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Fingerprints are suitable as long-term markers of human identity since they provide detailed and unique individual features which are difficult to alter and durable over life time. In this paper, we propose an algorithm to encrypt and decrypt fingerprint images by using a specially designed Elliptic Curve Cryptography (ECC) procedure based on block ciphers. In addition, to increase the confusing effect of fingerprint encryption, we also utilize a chaotic-behaved method called Arnold Cat Map (ACM) for a 2D scrambling of pixel locations in our method. Experimental results are carried out with various types of efficiency and security analyses. As a result, we demonstrate that the proposed fingerprint encryption/decryption algorithm is advantageous in several different aspects including efficiency, security and flexibility. In particular, using this algorithm, we achieve a margin of about 0.1% in the test of Number of Pixel Changing Rate (NPCR) values comparing to the-state-of-the-art performances.

Keywords: arnold cat map, biometric encryption, block cipher, elliptic curve cryptography, fingerprint encryption, Koblitz’s encoding

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Authors: Sutanto, Alexander Christy, N. Sutrisno

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The demand of a product is linearly dependent on the price and quality of the product. It is analog to the demand of the employee in job-seeker problem. This paper address a closed-loop supply chain (CLSC) where a university plays role as manufacturer that produce graduates as job-seeker according to the demand and promote them to a certain corporation through a trial. Unemployed occurs when the job-seeker failed the trial or dismissed. A third party accomodates the unemployed and sends them back to the university to increase their quality through training.

Keywords: CLSC, price, quality, job-seeker problem

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Authors: Cheng Wen, Zhang Jianhua

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This paper aims to probe into the general rules of industry specialization or diversification in a region during its process of economic growth and the specific reasons for the difference of industry specialization development in the eastern, central and western regions of China. It is found in this paper that the changes of regional industry specialization in China, like most of countries in the world, also present the U-shaped curve. Regional industrial structure is diversified in the first place. And when the per capita income exceeds a certain level, distribution of economic resources in this region will be concentrated again. From the perspective of rising total factor productivity and falling of transaction cost in the process of economic development, this paper comes up with a theoretical model to explain the U-shaped curve. Through the empirical test of China's provincial panel data, this paper explains the factors that cause the inequality of the industry specialization development in the eastern, central and western regions of China.

Keywords: u-shaped curve, regional industrial specialization, technological progress, transaction costs

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Authors: R. Rama Kishore, Sunesh

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Recent development in the usage of internet for different purposes creates a great threat for the copyright protection of the digital images. Digital watermarking can be used to address the problem. This paper presents detailed review of the different watermarking techniques, latest trends in the field of secured, robust and imperceptible watermarking. It also discusses the different optimization techniques used in the field of watermarking in order to improve the robustness and imperceptibility of the method. Different measures are discussed to evaluate the performance of the watermarking algorithm. At the end, this paper proposes a watermarking algorithm using (2, 2) share visual cryptography and Bezier curve based algorithm to improve the security of the watermark. The proposed method uses fractional transformation to improve the robustness of the copyright protection of the method. The algorithm is optimized using fuzzy entropy for better results.

Keywords: digital watermarking, fractional transform, visual cryptography, Bezier curve, fuzzy entropy

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Authors: Megumi Nishida, Naoya Motegi, Takurou Kikuchi, Tomoko Tokumura

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In recent years, power system has been changed and flexible power pricing system such as demand response has been sought in Japan. The demand response system is simple in the household sector and the owner, decision-maker, can gain the benefits of power saving. On the other hand, the execution of the demand response in the office building is more complex than household because various people such as owners, building administrators and occupants are involved in making decisions. While the owners benefit from the demand saving, the occupants are forced to be exposed to demand-saved environment certain benefits. One of the reasons is that building systems are usually centralized control and each occupant cannot choose either participate demand response event or not, and contribution of each occupant to demand response is unclear to provide incentives. However, the recent development of IT and building systems enables the personalized control of office environment where each occupant can control the lighting level or temperature around him or herself. Therefore, it can be possible to have a system which each occupant can make a decision of demand response participation in office building. This study investigates the personal behavior upon demand response requests, under the condition where each occupant can adjust their brightness individually in their workspace. Once workers participate in the demand response, their task lights are automatically turned off. The participation rates in the demand response events are compared between four groups which are divided by different motivation, the presence or absence of incentives and the way of participation. The result shows that there are the significant differences of participation rates in demand response event between four groups. The way of participation has a large effect on the participation rate. ‘Opt-out’ group, where the occupants are automatically enrolled in a demand response event if they don't express non-participation, will have the highest participation rate in the four groups. The incentive has also an effect on the participation rate. This study also reports that the impact of low illumination office environment on the occupants, such as stress or fatigue. The electrocardiogram and the questionnaire are used to investigate the autonomic nervous activity and subjective symptoms about the fatigue of the occupants. There is no big difference between dim workspace during demand response event and bright workspace in autonomic nervous activity and fatigue.

Keywords: demand response, illumination, questionnaire, electrocardiogram

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Authors: E. M. H. Maggie, M. N. A. Nazmey, M. A. Abdel-Sattar, S. A. Saied

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A successful trial of transplanting cotton is reported. Seeds grown in trays for 4-5 weeks in an easily prepared supporting medium such as peat moss or similar plant waste are tried. Careful transplanting of seedlings, with root system as intact as possible, is being made in the permanent field. The practice reduced damping-off incidence rate and allowed full winter crop revenues. Further work is needed to evaluate certain parameters such as growth curve, flowering curve, and yield at economic bases.

Keywords: cotton, transplanting cotton, damping-off diseases, environment sciences

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Authors: Rosa M. Senent

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Over the centuries, prostitution has been problematized from many sides, with women always at the center of the debate. However, prostitution is a gendered, demand-driven phenomenon. Thus, a focus must be put on the men who demand it, as an increasing number of studies have been done in the last few decades. The purpose of this paper is to expose how men's discourse online reveals the link between their demand for paid sex in prostitution and sex trafficking. The methodological tool employed was Critical Discourse Analysis (CDA). A critical analysis of sex buyers' discourse online showed that online communities of sex buyers are a useful tool in researching their behavior towards women, that their knowledge of sex trafficking and exploitation do not work as a deterrent for them to buy sex, and that the type of masculinity that sex buyers endorse is characterized by attitudes linked to the perpetuation of violence against women.

Keywords: masculinities, prostitution, sex trafficking, violence

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Authors: Mahsa Ghorbani Jazin

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The insurance industry has a prominent place in the economy of every country in the world. Fire insurance policies are types of non-life insurance, which protect insureds against financial losses of fire and related risks. In this paper, factors that are affecting the demand for fire insurance in Iran have been examined. Due to this reason, information and data have been collected during the period 1989-2019. In this research, the final model was estimated. The obtained results represent that as the population and literacy rate increase, people are more willing to purchase fire insurance. On the other hand, the actual per capita income has a negative influence on the demand for this type of insurance. Also, the amount of compensation that is paid in losses can be assumed as an indirect advertisement for fire insurance and attracts people to buy this policy. Finally, the new technology in the insurance industry is examined as a new underestimated way for increasing demand, especially in Iran.

Keywords: fire insurance, demand, per capita income, literacy rate, population, compensation paid, Insurtech

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Authors: Qiuxiao Chen, Yan Hou, Ning Wu

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As there are deficiencies of the classic Douglas-Peucker Algorithm (DPA), such as high risks of deleting key nodes by mistake, high complexity, time consumption and relatively slow execution speed, a new Deletion-Cost Based Compression Algorithm (DCA) for linear vector data was proposed. For each curve — the basic element of linear vector data, all the deletion costs of its middle nodes were calculated, and the minimum deletion cost was compared with the pre-defined threshold. If the former was greater than or equal to the latter, all remaining nodes were reserved and the curve’s compression process was finished. Otherwise, the node with the minimal deletion cost was deleted, its two neighbors' deletion costs were updated, and the same loop on the compressed curve was repeated till the termination. By several comparative experiments using different types of linear vector data, the comparison between DPA and DCA was performed from the aspects of compression quality and computing efficiency. Experiment results showed that DCA outperformed DPA in compression accuracy and execution efficiency as well.

Keywords: Douglas-Peucker algorithm, linear vector data, compression, deletion cost

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Authors: Tao Peng, Jing Zhao, Yanqing Xu, Jing Cai

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Due to missing/ambiguous boundaries between the prostate and neighboring structures, the presence of shadow artifacts, as well as the large variability in prostate shapes, ultrasound prostate segmentation is challenging. To handle these issues, this paper develops a hybrid method for ultrasound prostate segmentation by combining an optimized closed principal curve-based method and the evolutionary neural network; the former can fit curves with great curvature and generate a contour composed of line segments connected by sorted vertices, and the latter is used to express an appropriate map function (represented by parameters of evolutionary neural network) for generating the smooth prostate contour to match the ground truth contour. Both qualitative and quantitative experimental results showed that our proposed method obtains accurate and robust performances.

Keywords: ultrasound prostate segmentation, optimized closed polygonal segment method, evolutionary neural network, smooth mathematical model, principal curve

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Authors: Rita U. Onolemhemhen, Saheed L. Bello, Akin P. Iwayemi

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The effectiveness of energy demand policy depends on identifying the key drivers of energy demand both in the short-run and the long-run. This paper examines the influence of regional differences on the link between energy demand and other explanatory variables for Nigeria, China and USA using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach. This study employed annual time series data on energy consumption (ED), real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (RGDP), real energy prices (P) and urbanization (N) for a thirty-six-year sample period. The utilized time-series data are sourced from World Bank’s World Development Indicators (WDI, 2016) and US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Results from the study, shows that all the independent variables (income, urbanization, and price) substantially affect the long-run energy consumption in Nigeria, USA and China, whereas, income has no significant effect on short-run energy demand in USA and Nigeria. In addition, the long-run effect of urbanization is relatively stronger in China. Urbanization is a key factor in energy demand, it therefore recommended that more attention should be given to the development of rural communities to reduce the inflow of migrants into urban communities which causes the increase in energy demand and energy excesses should be penalized while energy management should be incentivized.

Keywords: economic growth, energy demand, income, real GDP, urbanization, VECM

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Authors: Fatemeh Torfi

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Estimation of stochastic demand in physical distribution in general and efficient transport routs management in particular is emerging as a crucial factor in urban planning domain. It is particularly important in some municipalities such as Tehran where a sound demand management calls for a realistic analysis of the routing system. The methodology involved critically investigating a fuzzy least-squares linear regression approach (FLLRs) to estimate the stochastic demands in the vehicle routing problem (VRP) bearing in mind the customer's preferences order. A FLLR method is proposed in solving the VRP with stochastic demands. Approximate-distance fuzzy least-squares (ADFL) estimator ADFL estimator is applied to original data taken from a case study. The SSR values of the ADFL estimator and real demand are obtained and then compared to SSR values of the nominal demand and real demand. Empirical results showed that the proposed methods can be viable in solving problems under circumstances of having vague and imprecise performance ratings. The results further proved that application of the ADFL was realistic and efficient estimator to face the stochastic demand challenges in vehicle routing system management and solve relevant problems.

Keywords: fuzzy least-squares, stochastic, location, routing problems

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Authors: Vineetha Bettaiah, Heggere S. Ranganath

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This paper presents a Hierarchical Piecewise Linear Approximation (HPLA) for the representation of time series data in which the time series is treated as a curve in the time-amplitude image space. The curve is partitioned into segments by choosing perceptually important points as break points. Each segment between adjacent break points is recursively partitioned into two segments at the best point or midpoint until the error between the approximating line and the original curve becomes less than a pre-specified threshold. The HPLA representation achieves dimensionality reduction while preserving prominent local features and general shape of time series. The representation permits course-fine processing at different levels of details, allows flexible definition of similarity based on mathematical measures or general time series shape, and supports time series data mining operations including query by content, clustering and classification based on whole or subsequence similarity.

Keywords: data mining, dimensionality reduction, piecewise linear representation, time series representation

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Authors: Xuri Tang, Ting Pan

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Metaphor institutionalization refers to the propagation of a metaphor that leads to its acceptance in speech community as a norm of the language. Such knowledge is important to both theoretical studies of metaphor and practical disciplines such as lexicography and language generation. This paper reports an empirical study of metaphor institutionalization of 14 Chinese metaphors. It first explores the pattern of metaphor institutionalization by fitting the logistic function (or S-shaped curve) to time series data of conventionality of the metaphors that are automatically obtained from a large-scale diachronic Chinese corpus. Then it reports a questionnaire-based survey on the propagation scale of each metaphor, which is measured by the average number of subjects that can easily understand the metaphorical expressions. The study provides two pieces of evidence supporting the hypothesis that metaphor institutionalization is a phrase transition: (1) the pattern of metaphor institutionalization is an S-shaped curve and (2) institutionalized metaphors generally do not propagate to the whole community but remain in equilibrium state. This conclusion helps distinguish metaphor institutionalization from topicalization and other types of semantic change.

Keywords: metaphor institutionalization, phase transition, propagation scale, s-shaped curve

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Authors: Amar Partap Singh Pharwaha, Shweta Rani

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To develop a reliable and cost effective communication platform for the telemedicine applications, novel antenna design has been presented using bacterial foraging optimization (BFO) technique. The proposed antenna geometry is achieved by etching a modified Koch curve fractal shape at the edges and a square shape slot at the center of the radiating element of a patch antenna. It has been found that the new antenna has achieved 43.79% size reduction and better resonating characteristic than the original patch. Representative results for both simulations and numerical validations are reported in order to assess the effectiveness of the developed methodology.

Keywords: BFO, electrical permittivity, fractals, Koch curve

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Authors: Lu Liao

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This paper studies the impact of private labels on the advertising incentives of national brands. The worldwide expansion of private labels over the past two decades not only transformed the choice sets of consumers but also forced manufacturers of national brands to design new marketing strategies to maintain their market positions. This paper first develops a consumer demand model that incorporates spillover effects of advertising for antacids, including private labels and finds positive spillovers of national brands’ advertising on demand for private label antacids. With the demand estimates, it provides a simulation for the equilibrium prices and advertising levels for leading national brands in a counterfactual where private labels are eliminated to quantify national brands’ advertising incentives as a response to the rise of private labels.

Keywords: advertising, private label, marketing, demand

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Authors: F. Esfandyari Darabad, Z. Samadi

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The volume of runoff caused by rainfall in the river basin has enticed the researchers in the fields of the water management resources. In this study, first of the hydrological data such as the rainfall and discharge of the Khiyav river basin of Meshkin city in the northwest of Iran collected and then the process of analyzing and reconstructing has been completed. The soil conservation service (scs) has developed a method for calculating the runoff, in which is based on the curve number specification (CN). This research implemented the following model in the Khiyav river basin of Meshkin city by the GIS techniques and concluded the following fact in which represents the usage of weight model in calculating the curve numbers that provides the possibility for the all efficient factors which is contributing to the runoff creation such as; the geometric characteristics of the basin, the basin soil characteristics, vegetation, geology, climate and human factors to be considered, so an accurate estimation of runoff from precipitation to be achieved as the result. The findings also exposed the accident-prone areas in the output of the Khiyav river basin so it was revealed that the Khiyav river basin embodies a high potential for the flood creation.

Keywords: curve number, khiyav river basin, runoff estimation, SCS

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Authors: Hasibe Berfu Demi̇r, Şakir Esnaf

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In the past decade, extensive improvements have been done in electrical grid infrastructures. It is very important to make plans on supply, demand, transmission, distribution and pricing for the development of the electricity energy sector. Based on this perspective, in this study, Stackelberg game approach is proposed for demand participation management (DRM), which has become an important component in the smart grid to effectively reduce power generation costs and user bills. The purpose of this study is to examine electricity consumption from a dynamic pricing perspective. The results obtained were compared with the current situation and the results were interpreted.

Keywords: lectricity, stackelberg, smart grid, demand response managment, dynamic pricing

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Authors: Dimitrios I. Tselentis, Simon P. Washington

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Considerable literature has been focused over the last few decades on forecasting the consumer demand of Energy Efficient Vehicles (EEVs). These methodological issues range from how to capture recent purchase decisions in revealed choice studies and how to set up experiments in stated preference (SP) studies, and choice of analysis method for analyzing such data. This paper reviews the plethora of published studies on the field of forecasting demand of EEVs since 1980, and provides a review and annotated bibliography of that literature as it pertains to this particular demand forecasting problem. This detailed review addresses the literature not only to Transportation studies, but specifically to the problem and methodologies around forecasting to the time horizons of planning studies which may represent 10 to 20 year forecasts. The objectives of the paper are to identify where existing gaps in literature exist and to articulate where promising methodologies might guide longer term forecasting. One of the key findings of this review is that there are many common techniques used both in the field of new product demand forecasting and the field of predicting future demand for EEV. Apart from SP and RP methods, some of these new techniques that have emerged in the literature in the last few decades are survey related approaches, product diffusion models, time-series modelling, computational intelligence models and other holistic approaches.

Keywords: demand forecasting, Energy Efficient Vehicles (EEVs), forecasting methodologies review, methodological approaches

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Authors: Merieleen Engtipi

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India's total share of global population is nearly 18%; however, its per capita energy consumption is only one-third of global average. The demand and supply of electricity are uneven in the country; around 240 million of the population have no access to electricity. However, with India's trajectory for modernisation and economic growth, the demand for energy is only expected to increase. India is at a crossroad, on the one hand facing the increasing demand for energy and on the other hand meeting the Paris climate policy commitments, and further the struggle to provide efficient energy. This paper analyses the policies to meet India’s need for energy, as the per capita energy consumption is likely to be double in 6-7 years period. Simultaneously, India's Paris commitment requires curbing of carbon emission from fossil fuels. There is an increasing need for renewables to be cheaply and efficiently available in the market and for clean technology to extract fossil fuels to meet climate policy goals. Fossil fuels are the most significant generator of energy in India; with the Paris agreement, the demand for clean energy technology is increasing. Finally, the U.S. decided to withdraw from the Paris Agreement; however, the two countries plan to continue engaging bilaterally on energy issues. The U.S. energy cooperation under Trump administration is significantly vital for greater energy security, transfer of technology and efficiency in energy supply and demand.

Keywords: energy demand, energy cooperation, fossil fuels, technology transfer

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Authors: Yoshinori Kitsutaka, Fumiya Ikedo

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In this study, the mechanical model of various anchors embedded in gypsum board subjected cyclic shear loading were investigated. Shear tests for anchors embedded in 200 mm square size gypsum board were conducted to measure the load - load displacement curves. The strength of the gypsum board was changed for three conditions and 12 kinds of anchors were selected which were ordinary used for gypsum board anchoring. The loading conditions were a monotonous loading and a cyclic loading controlled by a servo-controlled hydraulic loading system to achieve accurate measurement. The fracture energy for each of the anchors was estimated by the analysis of consumed energy calculated by the load - load displacement curve. The effect of the strength of gypsum board and the types of anchors on the shear properties of gypsum board anchors was cleared. A numerical model to predict the load-unload curve of shear deformation of gypsum board anchors caused by such as the earthquake load was proposed and the validity on the model was proved.

Keywords: gypsum board, anchor, shear test, cyclic loading, load-unload curve

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Authors: Zoltan Horvath, Dora Nagy

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In this research, it was examined whether individual COVID variants cause differences in the lactate curve of cyclists. After all, the virus variants attacked different organs in our body during the infections. During our tests, we used a traditional lactate step test, the results of which were compared with the values before the infection. In the tests, it has been proven that different virus variants show unique lactate curves. In this way, based on the lactate curve, it is possible to identify which variant caused the disease. Thanks to this, it has been shorten the return time, because we can apply the best return protocol after infection to the competitors.

Keywords: COVID-Sars19, lactate, virus mutation, lactate profile

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